1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,320 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you. 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa Brahma Wicks. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money. Whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:17,959 Speaker 1: podcast or wherever you listen to podcasts, as well as 7 00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com. Well, what a year it's been 8 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:24,279 Speaker 1: for equity investors, all three major US innescies all up 9 00:00:24,400 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: north of twenty fantastic performance. What is driving this? In 10 00:00:29,360 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: fact even more risk? People seem to be more willing 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:34,520 Speaker 1: to take on more risk just over the last several weeks. 12 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:35,879 Speaker 1: To get a sense of what is driving this, we 13 00:00:35,880 --> 00:00:39,120 Speaker 1: welcome our next guest, Jeff you Ubs, Wealth manager's head 14 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 1: of the UK Investment Office. Jeff, thanks so much for 15 00:00:41,600 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 1: joining us. Give us your sense of kind of what 16 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 1: is driving this embracing of risk we've seen really just 17 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 1: over the last four or five weeks that's taken this 18 00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: market even a leg higher. Well, I think she thinks, 19 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: firstly in a context is quite important. I think as 20 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:58,440 Speaker 1: we approach her and you know, people are going to 21 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:01,920 Speaker 1: ride up until so Christmas Eve, people are going to 22 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: see quite strong divergences between their year on year numbers 23 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:07,920 Speaker 1: versus their year to date numbers, right, And you know 24 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: that does tell you we started the year on a 25 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,920 Speaker 1: relatively risk offfitting positioning was soft and the things I'm 26 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,000 Speaker 1: just going to turn out, you know, not quite as 27 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: bad as expected, helped by doses of monastery policy. Of course, 28 00:01:20,400 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: while the trade issue continue to linger throughout, there are 29 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,319 Speaker 1: some signs, or world more than some signs that this 30 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: might just get to a point where we don't have 31 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,000 Speaker 1: to worry as much about further escalation from here. So 32 00:01:33,040 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: I think you know that there's a plus, a combination 33 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: of you know, okay numbers, you know, both in the 34 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 1: macro micro level just kept people in risk. How much 35 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 1: can you focus on what's going on around the rest 36 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,640 Speaker 1: of the world given everything that's going on right where 37 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 1: you are, with the election coming up in less than 38 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: a months, right, So I mean now that we heard 39 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: the Prime Minister speak today in front of businesses, and 40 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 1: clearly people on the ground who have been a sad 41 00:02:00,000 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: certain by the uncertainty from Brexit of last three years 42 00:02:03,080 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: or so, they would like to see some clarity up ahead, 43 00:02:06,360 --> 00:02:09,400 Speaker 1: So of course you know all parties offering out, you 44 00:02:09,400 --> 00:02:13,000 Speaker 1: know their campaign and policies, and right now I think 45 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: most companies and individuals will take up with a grain 46 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 1: of salt and that again the hope is that cloud 47 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:20,400 Speaker 1: of uncertainty from Brexit and the life will be lifted. 48 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: But then, of course, and for an open economy like 49 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 1: the UK, the global environment matters just as much, um 50 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: so with anie on the elections here, but also hoping 51 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: that the international economy picks up as well, not least 52 00:02:30,440 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 1: helped by by any upcoming face one trade deal. I'm 53 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:37,920 Speaker 1: struggling to sort of put into perspective the plan proposed 54 00:02:38,080 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 1: by the liberals, by by Labor, the idea for a 55 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: big fiscal spending plan that is being viewed by at 56 00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: least Sterling as a negative but potentially is being viewed 57 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: as a way to jump start the economy as what 58 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 1: do you think of it? Well, there are two sides 59 00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,960 Speaker 1: of this, you know. Certinly, um I would acknowledge it's 60 00:02:57,040 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: very hard to sell a currency and index or in 61 00:02:59,880 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: a economy into a fiscal similar right, um So those 62 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: who are positioned negatively and towards the end of two 63 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:09,639 Speaker 1: thousand and seventeen will have strong memories of that. Say, now, 64 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,560 Speaker 1: that could be a tailwin, you know, for the UK economy. 65 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: But on the other hand, it's some of the other 66 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 1: issues in which you could be considered you know, quite 67 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: a novel, right, you know, such those near share ownership plans, 68 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 1: you know, such as the nationalization of certain sectors, those 69 00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 1: things with which have been branded around and which over 70 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:29,880 Speaker 1: the medium to longer term on a structural basis and 71 00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,560 Speaker 1: may be interpreted as no less some positive. So I 72 00:03:33,639 --> 00:03:36,120 Speaker 1: think that put together is I'm taking a bit of 73 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: a gloss off any potential of fiscal stimulusum But again 74 00:03:39,720 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: I think in general, heading into an election right now, 75 00:03:42,480 --> 00:03:44,600 Speaker 1: people will take any promises with the grain of salt. 76 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 1: But both parties do have expansionary policies on the spending side, 77 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:50,480 Speaker 1: that has to be clear, and I think, you know 78 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 1: that there's a hope that could jumps out the economy 79 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,240 Speaker 1: on top of them some sort of finalization with the 80 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 1: relationship with Europe. Jeff, one of the data points that 81 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 1: we've received only is that it maybe we're getting some 82 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 1: stabilization in some of the key European economies. We kind 83 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,280 Speaker 1: of saw some data in October that was you know, 84 00:04:07,600 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: not worse kind of less bad? Is that the beginning 85 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:13,680 Speaker 1: of a trend, do you think or not? We are 86 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: not ready to jump on that yet, right, So you 87 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: know two things there. Firstly, it's stabilization on an absolute 88 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: but also relative basis as well. So if you look 89 00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: at most expectations in the still world, the most surprising disease, 90 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: I think expectations have been very very weak, you know, 91 00:04:29,360 --> 00:04:31,960 Speaker 1: throughout the last and a few courses or so in Europe. 92 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 1: You know, as a result, it becomes less hard to 93 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: you know, surprise you know, to the upside, or at 94 00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: least it becomes harder to surprise at the downside. By one, 95 00:04:39,160 --> 00:04:43,080 Speaker 1: expectations and positioning is solo. Secondly, you know there is 96 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 1: a clear difference between no more downside versus upside. Right. 97 00:04:46,520 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 1: So there again we need to see a fiscal pickup, 98 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 1: we need to see a demand pick up. And given 99 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,400 Speaker 1: our China growth forecast that you know, five five point 100 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,840 Speaker 1: some percent also um which is very important to the 101 00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:58,880 Speaker 1: Euros in economy, and our US growth forecast is not 102 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: that strong either. So I think put together with a 103 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 1: cyclical with an export external demand exposed to economy, such 104 00:05:05,520 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: as the eurozones, the global environment next year is just 105 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 1: not let's just say hot enough a comfort yet Eurozone 106 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:16,040 Speaker 1: policymakers and UM also the government officials looking at fiscal 107 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 1: I think they still have a lot of work to do. 108 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:21,000 Speaker 1: Not hard enough for comfort, certainly for President Trump. Just 109 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,840 Speaker 1: putting out a tweet about this meeting that we've been 110 00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,440 Speaker 1: reporting that he had with FED Chair J. Powell. Just 111 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:28,479 Speaker 1: finished a very good and cordial meeting at the White 112 00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: House with J. Powell the Federal Reserve. Everything was discussed, 113 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:35,800 Speaker 1: including interest rates, negative interest low inflation, easing, dollar strength 114 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:41,120 Speaker 1: and its effect on manufacturing, trade with China, EU and others, etcetera. 115 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts on that? Um, Well, it's interesting, 116 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,240 Speaker 1: UM so, I haven't seen the tweet myself that it's 117 00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:50,360 Speaker 1: interesting that the negative interest rates have popped into the conversation. 118 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 1: So um. Clearly the President will have a view on this, 119 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 1: um looking at how it's being implemented around the world, 120 00:05:57,480 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: but the Fed might still want to push back against it. 121 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:02,599 Speaker 1: I dea being so just not hot enough. That seems 122 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: to be the theme from central banks. How much can 123 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,440 Speaker 1: an ultra accommodative and sort of re upping of another 124 00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 1: easing cycle. How much cannot boost markets from here? Well, um, 125 00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 1: I think the would. I wouldn't say that there's a 126 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,080 Speaker 1: consensus on this right now that there's a strong body 127 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:21,160 Speaker 1: for opinion. If you even look at the divergence in 128 00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,360 Speaker 1: the UCB the viewers, Um, you need demand from the 129 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 1: fiscal side, so drugs, you know, parting um um uh 130 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: shot if you want to call it. That was actually 131 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,480 Speaker 1: to the establishment. So monetary policy can achieve its objectives, 132 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 1: you know, can get closer to inflation, you know, maybe 133 00:06:37,680 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: funemployment in the U S context, once fiscal starts to 134 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,719 Speaker 1: do its job right, So monetary policy creative conditions for 135 00:06:44,960 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: I would say, structure reform and fiscal policies to actually 136 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: jumpstart demand. So thinking that that's where it's you know, 137 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: I'll be interesting. I don't believe Chairman Powell will want 138 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: to in your tweet in as many words that would 139 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,919 Speaker 1: stressing them. Maybe some changes in the government spending side 140 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:01,080 Speaker 1: that could be very very helpful towards effect achieving its 141 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:03,120 Speaker 1: objectives as well. So I think you know, need to 142 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: have some given take it. But of course we're only 143 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: hearing what can monetary policy give Where a central bankers 144 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: would say, well, what can the politicians provide as well? 145 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:14,160 Speaker 1: That part of the equation is always missing somewhat. Thank 146 00:07:14,160 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: you so much for being with us and for commenting 147 00:07:16,560 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 1: on the tweet that I sprung upon you that we 148 00:07:18,320 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 1: were all sprung up a President Trump. Jeff You at 149 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 1: UBS Wealth Management, head of UK Investment Office joining us 150 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: from London. Steve Judash has joining us for his season 151 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:48,120 Speaker 1: of Prediction. I HT Wealth Chief executive Officer, Steve. I'm 152 00:07:48,120 --> 00:07:52,440 Speaker 1: watching the capitulation of Morgan Stanley and other bears saying, 153 00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 1: you know, next year might not be so bad in markets? 154 00:07:56,400 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 1: Do you agree? Do you think something substantial has shifted 155 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: to make you more optimistic about what we should see 156 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: tomorrow next year? I think the only difference, maybe say 157 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: from nine months ago, is how many interest rate hikes 158 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: or um cuts that we've actually seen, because no one 159 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: was predicting that a year ago. But aside from that, 160 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,360 Speaker 1: we've got to help the economy. That has changed a 161 00:08:17,360 --> 00:08:20,440 Speaker 1: whole lot. Fundamentally. The big unknown has been the trade war, 162 00:08:20,480 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 1: but I think just about everyone is predicting that that 163 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: and has been predicting that that would work out eventually. 164 00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: You've got the two biggest economies. They have to work 165 00:08:28,000 --> 00:08:30,600 Speaker 1: out terms at some point. It's not gonna happen overnight. 166 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: But I don't think anything is fundamentally changed to say, 167 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:35,840 Speaker 1: oh my, oh my, I think next year is gonna 168 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:38,800 Speaker 1: be wonderful. I think we should start expecting a little 169 00:08:38,800 --> 00:08:41,200 Speaker 1: bit more stability and a little bit more leveling out 170 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,160 Speaker 1: of market returns. We're not going to see another tax cut, 171 00:08:45,520 --> 00:08:47,240 Speaker 1: and we're not going to see three more raid cuts 172 00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 1: next year, So I don't see anything fundamentally that's massively 173 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: different for next year. What I find interesting is we've 174 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: actually seen maybe over the last four or five weeks, 175 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: people rotating out of defensive sectors and maybe take on 176 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:01,719 Speaker 1: a little a bit more risk was some cyclicals, and 177 00:09:01,760 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: I found that interesting. And given how late we are 178 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:06,719 Speaker 1: in the economic cycle, what do you how do you 179 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 1: view that? The only thing that I would argue on 180 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 1: that is how late we are in the economic cycle, 181 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:16,199 Speaker 1: because we've had a lot of false stimulus that's pushed 182 00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: us through this. So it's not like we've had a 183 00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,800 Speaker 1: ten year run of just normal, stable growth or anything 184 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 1: like that. We've had lots of brake cuts, we've had 185 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,480 Speaker 1: a lot of tax changes over the years, We've had 186 00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:27,839 Speaker 1: a lot of FED helping out the situation a lot. 187 00:09:27,880 --> 00:09:30,160 Speaker 1: So this isn't your run of the mill, you know, 188 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:32,439 Speaker 1: three to five year cycle that it goes up and down. 189 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: Our economy right now, the world economy right now is 190 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,320 Speaker 1: in a good place, and so sustaining that for a 191 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,880 Speaker 1: number of years in the future, barring massive events, isn't 192 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 1: out of It isn't unreasonable to believe that. I think again, 193 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 1: I think it's unreasonably believe we're gonna see a twenty 194 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:50,480 Speaker 1: percent return again next year. I think that's just silly. 195 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,319 Speaker 1: Do we even predict something like that? But but we're 196 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: in a nice place here, So getting out of the 197 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: defensive side and going more on the aggressive is something 198 00:09:58,920 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 1: that we've actually been preaching about a year now. So 199 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 1: what's your highest conviction trade heading into Okay, I'm not 200 00:10:06,280 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 1: gonna harder percent tell you this is my highest conviction, 201 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:10,400 Speaker 1: but I think it's the most interesting trade, and that's 202 00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:12,840 Speaker 1: the streaming wars that are going on. It's the biggest 203 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,880 Speaker 1: shake up in the entertainment industry that maybe since cable 204 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 1: tv um. It used to be Netflix and nobody. Now 205 00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 1: it's Netflix and virtually everyone, and so there's going to 206 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: massive winners and there's gonna be some massive losers in there, 207 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:27,439 Speaker 1: and that's what we've been focusing a lot of our time, 208 00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 1: g Ion. You've got companies like Netflix, who you know, frankly, 209 00:10:31,040 --> 00:10:32,560 Speaker 1: when we're looking at companies, we look at them, do 210 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: you make money today? Are you going to make more 211 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,640 Speaker 1: money tomorrow? Netflix is losing money today when they had 212 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,720 Speaker 1: no competition. Now everyone's in the game. There's only so 213 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:44,079 Speaker 1: many eyeballs, there's only so many hours people can stream. 214 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 1: It's hard to see how they're going to continue to 215 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 1: be a winner in that sector. Whereas you've got other 216 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,880 Speaker 1: companies like Disney um who have tons of content and 217 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: have the ability to absorb losses that they're all going 218 00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:55,920 Speaker 1: to lose money and streaming in the next five years. 219 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,360 Speaker 1: Anyone who says otherwise is lying to you. They're going 220 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 1: to lose money, but it's gonna be who can sustain 221 00:11:01,040 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: those losses with other parts of their companies and then 222 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: be the ultimate big winner at the end. That's where 223 00:11:06,320 --> 00:11:09,800 Speaker 1: it's been fun and that's where we've been focusing a lot. So, 224 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:11,679 Speaker 1: you know, one of the big questions, and we talk 225 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: about these streaming wars, is to get a sense of 226 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: how this is all going to shake out over the 227 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 1: next you know, five plus years, how many operators will 228 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,600 Speaker 1: actually be in the market, How much can this market support? 229 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: How many players do you think ultimately will be left 230 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 1: making money in this business? That's the key point. He 231 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:33,160 Speaker 1: disnailed it. They're making money because you've got companies like 232 00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:36,400 Speaker 1: Amazon and Apple that can float their streaming forever essentially 233 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:38,520 Speaker 1: because they make so much money on other parts. How 234 00:11:38,559 --> 00:11:41,080 Speaker 1: long are they willing to sustain those losses? I think 235 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 1: this is where you see a normal new sector or 236 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 1: new part of an industry develop. Everyone jumps in. You'll 237 00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 1: start seeing the shaking out, and then you'll start seeing 238 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 1: consolidating like we saw in network TV and things along 239 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:57,960 Speaker 1: those lines when cable came out. Um, three four players 240 00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:00,000 Speaker 1: at most right now, what are we projected for next? 241 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: You're nine players that are going to be in the game. 242 00:12:02,600 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 1: That's not sustainable. So are you a Netflix bear? Is 243 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: that what this is? I'm not. I'm not gonna sit 244 00:12:08,400 --> 00:12:09,840 Speaker 1: here and tell you I think Netflix is bad. I'm 245 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: gonna tell you that I have a real problem problem 246 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 1: getting into a company that loses money and it doesn't 247 00:12:14,360 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: show me a clear path on how they're going to 248 00:12:15,880 --> 00:12:19,520 Speaker 1: make money in the future. Netflix, to me, is a 249 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: very dangerous play. They need to hit some massive home runs, 250 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:25,360 Speaker 1: massive massive, and I don't like the gamble. So in 251 00:12:25,360 --> 00:12:27,880 Speaker 1: that situation, I think Netflix is a gamble right now. 252 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:29,480 Speaker 1: If they hit a bunch of home runs, that they 253 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:33,160 Speaker 1: get some massively popular content that everyone jumps on board with, 254 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:35,839 Speaker 1: they could sustain this. They can make it through. But 255 00:12:35,960 --> 00:12:38,360 Speaker 1: but you're betting. You're betting on the home run, and 256 00:12:38,360 --> 00:12:40,560 Speaker 1: that's a tough bat right now. It's a very tough 257 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,199 Speaker 1: But Steve, how do you think Apple is going to 258 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: play this business? Do you expect them to? Kind of? 259 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,200 Speaker 1: I think they said they're gonna invest six billion dollars 260 00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: in programming, and that's a big number, but it's quick. Frankly, 261 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 1: one could argue it's not big enough. Do you think 262 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:53,559 Speaker 1: they need to go out and make a big acquisition 263 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: in the entertainment space? I do. I completely agree with 264 00:12:57,640 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 1: what you said. It's a big number, but I don't 265 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 1: know if that it's necessarily big enough. I mean, how 266 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: much money is Disney put into it, not just right now, 267 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:07,439 Speaker 1: but over the last ten years buying content. Apple doesn't 268 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: really have any content well, I mean, they've got some, 269 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,040 Speaker 1: but they don't have enough content right now what could 270 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 1: be interesting? This is way speculation because you were saying 271 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:16,800 Speaker 1: in the beginning you're looking for the season of speculation. 272 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: What happens when Netflix is losing money for a couple 273 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:20,920 Speaker 1: of years and Apple has a bunch of cash sitting 274 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,400 Speaker 1: on the sidelines and they need content. Well, that's this 275 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:26,080 Speaker 1: is what people are expecting. That it's some or putting 276 00:13:26,120 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 1: out there postulating that what happens if Apple buys Netflix? 277 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 1: Short of that, though, I'm wondering if you on the 278 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: flip side are a Disney bull I am. I like 279 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:39,240 Speaker 1: companies that make money and that show me how they're 280 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 1: going to make more money in the future. Right now, 281 00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 1: they have more content than just about anybody. They've got 282 00:13:44,120 --> 00:13:46,800 Speaker 1: so many different paths to make money on that content 283 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 1: that even if right now no one really talks about 284 00:13:51,160 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 1: this enough, I don't think right now everyone's okay with 285 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 1: buying a whole bunch of different streaming products, you know, five, six, seven, 286 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:58,959 Speaker 1: whatever different areas and you're paying thirty bucks a month 287 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 1: for this and forty for that whatever. Um, what happens 288 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,199 Speaker 1: when the economy isn't doing so well, what happened when 289 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 1: unemployment isn't at record lows and people have to start 290 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 1: cutting back a little bit? You know, your your rank 291 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:11,840 Speaker 1: and file. People are going to have seven eight streaming 292 00:14:11,960 --> 00:14:15,240 Speaker 1: things anymore, They're gonna have three, maybe two, And so 293 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: that is where I want to be positioned for the 294 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: companies that can sustain that. So yes, to answer your question, Um, 295 00:14:21,880 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: Disney is an attractive company because even if they lose 296 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:26,240 Speaker 1: money on streaming, they make so much more money on 297 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,800 Speaker 1: everything else that it doesn't really matter. And they can 298 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: write out that storm because right now we're in goldilocks situation. 299 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,400 Speaker 1: What happens when we're not in the goldilocks situation anymore? Steve, 300 00:14:35,440 --> 00:14:37,520 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us giving us your thoughts 301 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:40,840 Speaker 1: on kind of what you're looking for out to twenty 302 00:14:41,280 --> 00:14:43,280 Speaker 1: as we start thinking about rolling over the calendar. Here 303 00:14:43,280 --> 00:14:46,680 Speaker 1: Steve doodash I HT Wealth Management, Chief executive Officer, joining 304 00:14:46,720 --> 00:15:05,520 Speaker 1: us on the phone once again. This year in technology 305 00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:08,240 Speaker 1: stocks are leading the market. We have the nastack up 306 00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 1: eight percent this year. Let's talk tech. Let's and we 307 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 1: do that. We do with Dan Ives from web Best 308 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 1: we web Bush Securities. Dan thanks so much for joining 309 00:15:17,200 --> 00:15:20,320 Speaker 1: us Technology again has been the big, big driver of 310 00:15:20,360 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 1: this move up in equity markets this year. Let's start 311 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,360 Speaker 1: with Apple. You know, it's just a fantastic story up 312 00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: six year to date. It's just amazing. The big issue 313 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,760 Speaker 1: I have is this company, as you we've talked about before, 314 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: is really making a big pivot from a phone reliant 315 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: company to a services company. But that's a lot of 316 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:42,560 Speaker 1: risk in that story there, But it seems like the 317 00:15:42,600 --> 00:15:46,280 Speaker 1: markets giving Apple more than the benefit of the doubt. Yeah, 318 00:15:46,320 --> 00:15:49,080 Speaker 1: and you're not alone. And I think when I look 319 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: at Apple, it's the one to punch the rocket. Gibraltar 320 00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:55,080 Speaker 1: continues to be iPhone, and I think what you're seeing 321 00:15:55,120 --> 00:16:00,520 Speaker 1: here at iPhone eleven tracking head expectations. It all about 322 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: the install base and now it's about monetizing that through services. 323 00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:07,760 Speaker 1: And that's part of the rereading that we're seeing with Apple. 324 00:16:08,120 --> 00:16:10,440 Speaker 1: And that's why right now the bears continue to be 325 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 1: in hibernation mode and termed to what's happened with stock. Okay, 326 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,480 Speaker 1: so you see more positivity ahead, Yet whenever we see 327 00:16:18,480 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: a trade headline that's negative, the tech socks are the 328 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 1: ones that sell off. First. What if we do not 329 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,160 Speaker 1: get a trade truce what how much does that affect 330 00:16:26,160 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 1: your outlook? Yeah, that's fifteen dollars per share in terms 331 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 1: of right now what I view as the overall overhang 332 00:16:34,280 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: from trade on Apple. It's the poster child in terms 333 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:41,000 Speaker 1: of the US trying to trade war, but it's about 334 00:16:41,000 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: a fifteen overhang right now. So I think if we 335 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: do not get any sort of deal, that's sort of 336 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: how I've used sort of a risk speak into the stock. 337 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: So Dan, let's go back to the old, you know, 338 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:56,440 Speaker 1: trying to true phone business for Apple. Give us a 339 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: sense of how big five G could be two Apple. 340 00:17:00,080 --> 00:17:02,880 Speaker 1: We hear so much now across so many different technology 341 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,040 Speaker 1: verticals about five G and how it's gonna be the 342 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:06,879 Speaker 1: next big thing in tech. What does it mean for 343 00:17:06,920 --> 00:17:11,040 Speaker 1: the likes of Apple? In my opinion, the best five 344 00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:14,880 Speaker 1: G play is Apple because when you look at five 345 00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 1: G and how their position going to think about nine 346 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:22,160 Speaker 1: million consumers right now. In terms of the install based 347 00:17:22,480 --> 00:17:25,359 Speaker 1: we think about four million of those are gonna upgrade 348 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: over the next twelve day tea months. The first part's 349 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:30,399 Speaker 1: gonna be out from eleven, But five G I believe 350 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,000 Speaker 1: it's really gonna be a super cycle for for Apple. 351 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: That's why I still view this is a stock. I 352 00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:37,560 Speaker 1: think it's gonna have a three in front of it 353 00:17:37,640 --> 00:17:40,520 Speaker 1: going into next year. Can you walk through that a 354 00:17:40,560 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: little bit more. How five G will sort of supercharge 355 00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:47,760 Speaker 1: Apple shares? Yeah, A lot of it is really the 356 00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:51,520 Speaker 1: applications in the infrastructure. It's gonna be five G related. 357 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 1: And for the average consumer, especially within the install base, 358 00:17:55,680 --> 00:17:58,280 Speaker 1: to get access to that five G, you're gonna need 359 00:17:58,320 --> 00:18:01,280 Speaker 1: to be in a five G phone. We think next year, 360 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:05,440 Speaker 1: based on our checks throughout China and Taiwan, there's gonna 361 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 1: be four or five G footes. So for a consumer, 362 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,879 Speaker 1: they're gonna upgrade on five get Apple and that what 363 00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:18,000 Speaker 1: that's really doing giving them a renaissance of growth. That's 364 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:22,119 Speaker 1: the highway. The highway to five G is a smart phone. 365 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: I'm struggling to understand five G applications as being so 366 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 1: incredibly different. I mean, basically, it's a robot gonna get 367 00:18:29,200 --> 00:18:31,479 Speaker 1: beamed into my home and make me breakfast. I mean, 368 00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 1: or how how different is this going to be from 369 00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:38,840 Speaker 1: four and three G. It's I think it's a paradigm 370 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,400 Speaker 1: change in terms of five gene. I think the best 371 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,639 Speaker 1: way of thing about is more smart cities, autonomous capabilities. 372 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: I'm talking about a lot of technologies that today are 373 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,679 Speaker 1: more on the white board. Over the next five ten years, 374 00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 1: it's really gonna be five G n E. But then 375 00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,720 Speaker 1: that's why when you look at the leader and that 376 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 1: at the Apple. Obviously Samsung continues to be there as 377 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:02,200 Speaker 1: well as the Chinese consumers. But that's why I thought 378 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 1: is so important in terms of where Apple sits in 379 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:08,720 Speaker 1: the stock Well, Dan, one part of the services story 380 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 1: for Apple that's less clear to me is their video strategy, 381 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: their TV strategy. I know they have Apple tv Plus 382 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:18,800 Speaker 1: and there's some shows there, but to me, that's not it. 383 00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,040 Speaker 1: I mean, that's not gonna cause me to switch or 384 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: to add to my Netflix and to my Disney Plus. 385 00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,119 Speaker 1: What do you really think is the play for Apple 386 00:19:28,160 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: in the video business? Yeah, I think the first part 387 00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,240 Speaker 1: of the play is distribution. They want to be the 388 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: distribution platform for screaming. That's the first step. And then 389 00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: I think if you look at it right now, that's 390 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 1: why the bundling is so important in terms of the 391 00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:46,680 Speaker 1: new iPhone. In terms of the video side, right now, 392 00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,240 Speaker 1: they lack content. But I do not believe that that 393 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,359 Speaker 1: would be like that in a year from now, I 394 00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,560 Speaker 1: think they're going to dedicate six billion per year and 395 00:19:54,640 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: I still think they acquire more of a content play 396 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: an MGM, A Sony, a mind Gate over the next year. 397 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 1: Who's the big loser from five G who's not going 398 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:08,600 Speaker 1: to keep up? Look, I think in terms of the 399 00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:12,160 Speaker 1: big loser right now, in terms of five G, this 400 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,679 Speaker 1: is really going to be an Apple verse Samsung. I 401 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:17,440 Speaker 1: think if you look so far, I think Samsung has 402 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 1: fumbled it a bit in terms of where they were 403 00:20:21,040 --> 00:20:24,360 Speaker 1: versus Apple, and I think it's not going to be 404 00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 1: a winner take all. But I think right now Samsung 405 00:20:28,080 --> 00:20:30,520 Speaker 1: has been a bit disappointing on the five G side, 406 00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,560 Speaker 1: and when you look at five G, I think right 407 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:34,879 Speaker 1: now it's gonna be a lot of winners. The question 408 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 1: is verizing a T and T which benefits from five 409 00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: G more. And I think that's why the next six 410 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:43,400 Speaker 1: or twelve months are really going to determine from strategically 411 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,840 Speaker 1: who's best position. But right now, I continue to think 412 00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: Apple is furnt of the reas in terms when it 413 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: comes to five G. Dan, I've thank you so much 414 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: for being with us. Dan, i'ves director of Equity Research 415 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 1: at Wedbush Securities. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg PL podcast. 416 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,679 Speaker 1: You can see scribe and listened to interviews at Apple 417 00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Paul Sweeney. 418 00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa Abram Wohits. 419 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,880 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Lisa Abram Woits One. Before the podcast, 420 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio