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Hello, 0:01:50.920 --> 0:01:54.680 They're happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of the 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:58.200 check podcast. It is a Wednesday in an even numbered year, 0:01:58.200 --> 0:02:01.360 which means were the day after a Tuesday, which means 0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:04.920 if it's Tuesday, somebody was voting somewhere the somewheres that 0:02:03.960 --> 0:02:07.240 I that we should be paying attention to special election 0:02:07.320 --> 0:02:11.120 to place Marjorie Taylor Green. That it was an all 0:02:11.600 --> 0:02:17.080 candidate jungle primary. That's why you see the Democratic candidate 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:19.760 looking like they did really well. There was a whole 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:23.840 bunch of Republicans. This now goes to a runoff. I 0:02:23.840 --> 0:02:26.840 wouldn't hold my breath about Democrats there. They you know, 0:02:26.880 --> 0:02:29.200 if they lose by single digits, it's a big deal. 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.919 This is still a very conservative district. And in fact, 0:02:32.000 --> 0:02:33.679 I think I read one stat that even in those 0:02:33.960 --> 0:02:38.120 big Public Service Commission races in November of twenty twenty five, 0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:41.800 I believe the Democratic candidate's it's still underperformed by some 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:45.080 thirteen points in this district. So it's a it is 0:02:45.320 --> 0:02:51.080 a very conservative district, and it is it is going 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.000 to be. It is going to go to the Trump 0:02:54.080 --> 0:03:00.639 endorsed candidate. But you know it again, to me, single 0:03:00.639 --> 0:03:03.560 bidgets would be a big deal come the runoff, and 0:03:03.600 --> 0:03:07.800 it will be a low turnout situation. So the likelihood 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:13.160 of it being closer than it should be is is higher. 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:17.520 There in Mississippi, we had no really major primaries. Bennie Thompson, 0:03:17.600 --> 0:03:21.480 the longtime Democratic member of Congress there was challenged by 0:03:21.680 --> 0:03:26.680 someone younger that was not It's competitive, but not that close. 0:03:27.320 --> 0:03:29.400 He survives. I'm gonna have a little bit more to 0:03:29.440 --> 0:03:31.280 say about the battle for the Senate because we had 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:34.679 a big, a big change with the Montana News. I 0:03:34.720 --> 0:03:36.720 actually have a little bit of an update on where 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:39.840 I think Montana stands in the battle for the Senate. 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:41.840 Needless to say, it is in play. The question is 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:44.840 how in play is it. This is going to be 0:03:44.880 --> 0:03:49.080 a complicated issue for the National Democratic Party because of 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:52.720 the strength potential strength of this independent candidate in the 0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:57.840 former University of Montana military veteran Seth Bodner. I also 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:02.000 because it's Mississippi primary day, I decided. I told you 0:04:02.120 --> 0:04:06.880 I've been sitting on some book research for years that 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:11.920 is about featuring and showcasing the all time greatest campaigns 0:04:11.920 --> 0:04:16.000 in every state. Well it's Mississippi week, so I thought 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:19.680 I would reveal my top five all time campaigns in 0:04:19.720 --> 0:04:23.000 Mississippi history. And it's got a bit of a twist. 0:04:23.520 --> 0:04:26.000 It's a little bit of a history lesson and a 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:30.800 little bit of a showcase. And I think it shows 0:04:30.839 --> 0:04:35.159 you how far where Mississippi was, where it has been, 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:40.040 where it's headed, and where it is now. But if 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:41.880 you're a political junkie, I think you'll enjoy it. And 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:46.400 as always, if you disagree with my order, let me 0:04:46.440 --> 0:04:48.640 know what I missed. I'd love to this to me, 0:04:48.800 --> 0:04:53.240 is open source history, lesson here on that stuff. Then 0:04:53.240 --> 0:04:57.760 of course I'll take some questions. But let's begin with 0:04:57.839 --> 0:05:01.800 what is now consuming this presidency and what may devour 0:05:01.920 --> 0:05:05.280 this presidency, and that is the war of choice. And 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:07.360 that's what this is, and this is what makes it 0:05:07.440 --> 0:05:11.280 so precarious politically for Donald Trump. His war of choice 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.680 in Iran. We're more than a week into it, and 0:05:14.720 --> 0:05:17.080 depending on which part of the administration you listen to, 0:05:17.200 --> 0:05:22.160 this war is either going to end very quickly, extend 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:25.320 for quite some time, or evolve into something else entirely. 0:05:26.080 --> 0:05:29.279 And that uncertainty alone would be enough to rattle markets 0:05:29.320 --> 0:05:32.599 and policymakers. But boy, the first two days of this 0:05:32.640 --> 0:05:36.839 week revealed something else that may be even more destabilizing, 0:05:38.279 --> 0:05:40.800 a massive credibility problem, not just with allies, not just 0:05:40.839 --> 0:05:45.120 with Congress, but with financial markets. We've now had two 0:05:45.240 --> 0:05:49.480 days of trading since this war started this week, right, 0:05:50.440 --> 0:05:54.839 and both days the administration appeared to want to manage 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:58.360 or manipulate the markets. So on Monday, right, we had 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:01.320 this interesting glimpse of how this residency is operating during 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:04.920 this crisis. Financial markets open the day already rattled by 0:06:04.920 --> 0:06:08.240 the war, oil prices surged amid fears that the conflict 0:06:08.320 --> 0:06:11.320 was going to disrupt global supply. The White House quickly 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:15.520 moved to calm those fears. President Trump suggested, I called 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:19.640 up the CBS News correspondent and he suggested to her 0:06:19.720 --> 0:06:23.360 that the war might end sooner than expected. Remarks that did. 0:06:23.360 --> 0:06:25.479 What by the way, he did this interview before the 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:28.159 markets closed at four pm Eastern time, and those remarks 0:06:28.160 --> 0:06:32.359 helped ease market anxiety, pushed oil prices lower, pushed the 0:06:32.440 --> 0:06:35.760 markets higher. And then hours later he speaks in front 0:06:35.760 --> 0:06:38.159 of House Republicans, and what, by the way, what a 0:06:38.240 --> 0:06:41.039 disastrous speech that was. If he's trying to rally the 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:43.680 troops or the midterms. I don't know if the troops 0:06:43.680 --> 0:06:45.720 are going to go through a paper mache wall, let 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:47.800 alone one that is going to have bricks in it. 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:51.159 But I digress. By the evening, the President was warning 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:54.360 that the United States was prepared to escalate the conflict 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:57.120 and continue fighting until Iran was, in his words, totally 0:06:57.160 --> 0:06:59.880 and decisively defeated. Now it's possible he was reading for 0:07:00.160 --> 0:07:03.680 an old speech script. Maybe his mind he was trying 0:07:03.720 --> 0:07:05.320 to speed up the end of this thing, and then 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:10.000 he had prepared remarks for the House Republican retreat. Maybe 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:13.720 that's the thing with this administration, right, can you trust 0:07:13.800 --> 0:07:17.320 anything they do? Can you at all trust what's coming 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:20.360 out of their mouth means something for more than an hour. 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:25.240 So in the same day on Monday, we got both 0:07:25.280 --> 0:07:31.160 reassurance and ended with escalation. So markets in the morning, 0:07:31.560 --> 0:07:33.720 military messaging in the evening. Is that what we're supposed 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:36.240 to take away from this? Not one hundred percent sure 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.600 it was really anything other than do whatever it took 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:43.000 to calm the markets down and we'll worry about tomorrow tomorrow. 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.400 This feels like they are managing this by the day, 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:50.640 by the hour, right, and we know the only guardrail 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:53.800 that moves Trump at all is the markets. He's been 0:07:53.880 --> 0:07:58.200 unusually sensitive to market reactions, you know, care Off day. 0:07:58.560 --> 0:08:01.800 If he could pull it undo the start of this war, 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:03.680 I think he already would have, just like he did 0:08:03.680 --> 0:08:07.000 with his tariffs on Liberation Day. But you can't unbomb 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:12.160 the country Kenya. So now it appears the presidency is 0:08:12.320 --> 0:08:16.160 now chasing the markets, and this kind of rapid shift 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:20.080 suggests something important about how this administration is govering. Right now, 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:23.520 it looks a lot less like a carefully sequenced strategy 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:27.360 and more like a presidency that is operating by the 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:31.200 seat of their pants reaction instead of direction. It's just 0:08:31.200 --> 0:08:35.080 what I said on Monday. Welcome to quicksand. This presidency 0:08:35.120 --> 0:08:38.240 is getting devoured ever so slowly by the quicksand of 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:41.040 this war in Iran. Every attempt to stabilize one part 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:47.200 of the situation creates risking instability somewhere else. That was Monday. 0:08:47.280 --> 0:08:50.719 Then Tuesday, a social media post from the Secretary of 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:54.920 Energy briefly suggested that the US naval forces had successfully 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:59.920 escorted oil tankers through the straight of hormones. Well, guess what. 0:09:00.280 --> 0:09:05.400 Markets loved it. They reacted instantly. Oil prices plunged in 0:09:05.520 --> 0:09:08.240 just a few minutes in exchange traded fund tied to 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:13.720 oil futures lost roughly eighty four million dollars in market value. 0:09:14.960 --> 0:09:18.199 Little manipulation of the markets. Huh. And then the post 0:09:18.280 --> 0:09:22.800 was suddenly deleted. The explanation, Ah, the caption was wrong. 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:25.320 A staffer may have done it. They want to check 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:29.520 that staffer's investment brokers account. By the way, maybe that's true. 0:09:31.679 --> 0:09:35.760 Do you trust them? Credibility matters big time at a 0:09:35.800 --> 0:09:38.120 time of war, and this administration has burned through so 0:09:38.240 --> 0:09:41.520 much of its credibility with the average American that you 0:09:41.600 --> 0:09:43.880 are going to see a lot of questions about everything 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:46.520 they do or say, because what they say is not 0:09:46.559 --> 0:09:48.200 what they do, and what they do is not what 0:09:48.240 --> 0:09:57.520 they say. This administration has spent years eroding trust with institutions. Proactively. 0:09:57.880 --> 0:09:59.560 They go out of their way to make sure you 0:09:59.600 --> 0:10:02.800 don't us certain institutions. Look what they've done to the FBI. 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:06.280 They want the FBI distrust it, they want the irs 0:10:06.320 --> 0:10:11.920 distrust it, and they've done it. They've made allies question 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.960 what we do. And now the markets what are they 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:20.040 supposed to believe? So when something like that happens, whether 0:10:20.080 --> 0:10:22.960 it's intentional accidental, the benefit of the doubt is gone. 0:10:23.040 --> 0:10:26.319 This is two days in a row. Look, we always 0:10:26.360 --> 0:10:29.120 had the rule of three for deciding something's a trend. 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:34.000 So we've had two. But let's just say we're all 0:10:34.080 --> 0:10:36.320 watching on Wednesday to see are they going to play 0:10:36.320 --> 0:10:40.200 this game again? And markets do assume the government is 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:43.079 trying to move prices, and it's a dangerous place when 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:45.760 the global energy system is already under pressure for more 0:10:46.320 --> 0:10:51.880 because eventually markets will stop reacting to government reassurance they 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:56.080 will only react to reality, and that's a scarier place 0:10:56.160 --> 0:10:59.960 to be. I've noticed Secretary Treasury has been quite quiet. 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:05.400 He normally loves to jump in and play the game himself. Meanwhile, 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:08.080 the reality of the war is already becoming clear. This 0:11:08.240 --> 0:11:11.440 was amazing. During their brief into Congress, we learned we 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:13.839 had already heard that the first week of the war 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:16.800 was costing at least six billion dollars worth of munitions. Well, 0:11:16.800 --> 0:11:19.960 apparently they told Congress they burned through five point six 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:22.360 billion dollars worth of munitions in the first two days 0:11:22.360 --> 0:11:28.720 of fighting alone. Two days. That's not a cost of 0:11:28.720 --> 0:11:31.880 the war. That's just the cost of the ammunition. That 0:11:31.920 --> 0:11:35.480 doesn't count the fighter jets that were lost to friendly fire. Right, 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:39.479 we know that's millions and millions of dollars just the ammunition. 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:44.240 And now the Pentagon's reporting roughly one hundred and forty 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.920 American service members have been wounded, most with minor injuries. 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:50.480 But it is pretty clear what a RAN's up to. 0:11:50.480 --> 0:11:56.319 Iran is borrowing a playbook that overmatched countries have used 0:11:56.360 --> 0:11:58.960 with success in the past. Whether it was what we 0:11:59.040 --> 0:12:01.920 had to face in Vietnam, what Russia had to face 0:12:01.920 --> 0:12:05.559 in Afghanistan. What the Taliban did to us in Afghanistan, 0:12:05.679 --> 0:12:09.679 the insurgency that we dealt with in Iraq. This is 0:12:09.720 --> 0:12:16.679 the asymmetrical part, the uncoordinated part of the Iranian Republican Guard. 0:12:18.760 --> 0:12:23.120 This is why we are dealing now with an asymmetrical 0:12:23.960 --> 0:12:26.880 fighting enemy, and that is a scary place to be. 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:34.240 Recent history tells us why. So meanwhile, the economy, So 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:39.080 you have rising oil prices which will impact inflation, a 0:12:39.160 --> 0:12:43.480 potentially shrinking jobs market. Right. That was also happened last week, 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:46.680 and it has made the s word start to appear 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:51.640 stagflation fear because you've got oil prices surging, shipping routes 0:12:51.640 --> 0:12:53.760 to the golfer under pressure. That's going to screw with 0:12:53.800 --> 0:12:56.160 the supply chain. We saw what that did during COVID. 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:58.559 You're gonna have the same supply chain issues going through 0:12:58.559 --> 0:13:02.000 the straight upore moves. Energy infrastructure across the region has 0:13:02.000 --> 0:13:04.480 become a target. Even Pete Haig said that the Pentagon 0:13:04.559 --> 0:13:07.679 was trying to push back on what the Israelis have 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.360 been doing and bombing too much of the energy infrastructure. 0:13:10.840 --> 0:13:14.960 Aron's targeting energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Ua and Katar 0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:19.480 They want to make this as painful as possible in 0:13:19.760 --> 0:13:22.960 order to have our allies pressure the United States and 0:13:23.040 --> 0:13:25.959 Israel to back off because of what they're going to 0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:29.680 do to the global economy and if we end up 0:13:29.720 --> 0:13:33.920 with stagflation rising prices combined with slowing economic growth. As 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:36.319 Austin Goulesby, he was president of the Chicago Fed one 0:13:36.320 --> 0:13:39.640 time Obama economic advisor, he warned recently that when rising 0:13:39.679 --> 0:13:44.360 unemployment collides with an oil shock, it creates the exact 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:47.760 kind of environment central banks fear the most. It's hard 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:50.120 to deal with. This is what life was like in 0:13:50.160 --> 0:13:55.280 the seventies, and it sucked. Okay, My memories are sitting 0:13:55.360 --> 0:13:58.200 in gas lines every other day, depending on if you're 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:00.400 an even number and odd number in your life plate, 0:14:00.400 --> 0:14:01.840 and you had a weight in line to get if 0:14:01.840 --> 0:14:03.800 it was your day for gas, and guess what, there 0:14:03.840 --> 0:14:09.720 was always a line on that front. Yet the administration 0:14:09.880 --> 0:14:13.679 is reporting exploring ways to bring gas prices down, as 0:14:13.720 --> 0:14:17.000 they should. Right, You've got to try to do something. Now, 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:21.840 what they may try to do may risk unintended consequences. 0:14:22.400 --> 0:14:24.960 They want to intervene. Somebody has thrown out this is 0:14:24.960 --> 0:14:28.000 such a classic Trump move. I know Trump hasn't put 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:30.560 his fingerprints on it yet, but this feels like him. 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:34.080 He wants to intervene in the oil futures markets, basically 0:14:34.200 --> 0:14:37.480 use US treasuries to mess around with the futures markets 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.040 to try to drive down the price of oil. Let's 0:14:40.040 --> 0:14:42.480 just say economists reacted with alarm. One anaists warned it 0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.960 could trigger the mother of all short squeezes because the 0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.160 truth is simple. The Federal Reserve can print reserves. They 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:53.560 can print money, right and the Treasury can print money. 0:14:53.760 --> 0:14:55.560 Neither one of them can print oil. And if they 0:14:55.560 --> 0:14:59.119 try to use that money to manipulate the oil markets, 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:07.040 oh my. This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:10.160 to you by Quince. A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down 0:15:10.200 --> 0:15:13.280 to pieces that mix well and last. 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Now, Democrats better 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.359 be careful of something here right now because of the 0:17:47.400 --> 0:17:51.360 current shutdown involving TSA agents, right, especially as the war 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:56.600 sort of consumes Remember the underlying issue that was driving 0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:59.760 the shutdown of the partial shutdown of DHS and the 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:05.080 first right, So while we have all these unfolding events 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:08.119 overseas and in global markets, we are still sitting with 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:12.240 this partial shutdown of DHS. TSA agents are now facing 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:14.960 the possibility of missing their second paycheck this week. I 0:18:15.000 --> 0:18:20.360 have flown this week. TSA agents are getting kind of grumpy. 0:18:19.480 --> 0:18:23.359 All of fellow travelers couldn't have been. You could hear it. 0:18:23.400 --> 0:18:26.800 Everybody's been extra nice hanging there. Thanks for coming to work, 0:18:26.840 --> 0:18:29.040 That's what I said. That's what a lot of people said. 0:18:29.720 --> 0:18:34.240 But they're not getting paid. We've got spring break. Travel 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:38.600 is just starting to kick in. This is going to 0:18:38.640 --> 0:18:41.119 be one of those things where public inconvenience is not 0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:45.040 going to care about the political reasons why we're in 0:18:45.080 --> 0:18:51.760 the situation that we're in. So Democrats have had leverage 0:18:51.760 --> 0:18:55.639 in this fight, right the unpopularity of immigration enforcement of DHS. 0:18:56.240 --> 0:18:59.840 But Christy Numb's been fired. There's kind of a focus 0:18:59.840 --> 0:19:02.920 on a whole bunch of other stuff. So in some ways, 0:19:04.440 --> 0:19:07.240 when do Democrats declare victory on this, they got numb fired. 0:19:07.320 --> 0:19:09.600 They're going to get some changes, They're probably going to 0:19:09.680 --> 0:19:11.879 get mull into at least agree to some things. That 0:19:11.960 --> 0:19:15.960 is confirmation hearing this is just like that last shutdown. 0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:22.200 They've made their point, they got some action. They certainly 0:19:22.240 --> 0:19:25.960 have the public confirmation by the administration to the American 0:19:26.000 --> 0:19:29.399 public that all was not right with the HS. They 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:32.760 better be careful here right right now. They don't want 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:34.040 to do it. You know, this is one of those 0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:36.600 classic case when you're just just look at the politics 0:19:36.600 --> 0:19:41.040 of the situation. The party you're running against is just 0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:46.359 imploding on itself. This war with Iran is going to 0:19:46.480 --> 0:19:51.040 be a weight around the ankle of every Republican running 0:19:51.440 --> 0:19:54.720 in twenty twenty six. So this is a classic case 0:19:54.720 --> 0:19:56.520 where get out of the way, don't offer up your 0:19:56.560 --> 0:20:00.919 opponent a lifeline, and sticking to their guns too long 0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:07.199 on this partial shutdown, which is doesn't deal directly with 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:09.680 the part of DHS they want to be dealing with 0:20:10.200 --> 0:20:15.120 that's already been funded. You're punishing the flying public, you're 0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:19.160 punishing college kit, you're punishing families wanting to go visit 0:20:19.200 --> 0:20:25.520 Grandma on Grandpa or Easter in passover. So I think 0:20:25.680 --> 0:20:28.600 their calculation needs to shift here sooner rather than later, 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:33.160 because this is this is one of those again, when 0:20:33.240 --> 0:20:38.080 the public is inconvenience, politics doesn't become very clean anymore. 0:20:38.119 --> 0:20:41.280 And if airline airport lines starts stretching two or three 0:20:41.320 --> 0:20:45.159 hours during the spring break travel season, people who normally 0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:52.840 ignore the Washington mess start paying attention. So it's this 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:57.760 is a Democrat forced shutdown of DHS. And you know 0:20:57.800 --> 0:21:01.359 there can point finger point all this and back and forth, 0:21:02.200 --> 0:21:04.400 but they ought to be a bit aware of this 0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:08.560 and ask themselves do they want to get in the 0:21:08.600 --> 0:21:13.280 way of right now is a never ending set of 0:21:13.280 --> 0:21:16.879 negative headlines impacting elected Republicans. But let's go back to 0:21:16.920 --> 0:21:20.760 Iran a minute, because the bigger challenges. I do think 0:21:20.800 --> 0:21:23.720 if he can undo this, see what this is not 0:21:24.320 --> 0:21:28.480 going well? And there's because the problem is the enemy 0:21:28.480 --> 0:21:31.960 always gets to say and Iran is not. This idea 0:21:32.040 --> 0:21:34.640 that he was going to pull a venezuela is clearly 0:21:35.119 --> 0:21:38.240 what he thought and now that ain't gonna happen. By 0:21:38.280 --> 0:21:41.960 the way, this Kamane son, are we going to see him? 0:21:42.400 --> 0:21:47.639 Is he alive? Is he in the hospital. Was he is? 0:21:47.680 --> 0:21:53.400 He just sort of up up front for the Republican 0:21:53.440 --> 0:21:57.280 Guard here? What's going on? Do we need this is there? 0:21:58.200 --> 0:22:02.840 I think if if the Iranian regime wants some credibility still, 0:22:02.880 --> 0:22:04.960 they probably need to have some proof of life here 0:22:05.440 --> 0:22:08.280 on the Kamani Sun. It is interesting that he's been 0:22:08.400 --> 0:22:14.920 named the third leader of Iran since the Islamic Revolution 0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:17.600 in seventy nine, but we've not seen or heard from him. 0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:22.879 Just something to keep in mind. But that gets us 0:22:22.880 --> 0:22:26.239 back to how does this end? What does victory look like? 0:22:26.520 --> 0:22:31.040 President has offered several versions. Ran must surrender. I don't 0:22:31.080 --> 0:22:33.320 think they're going to do that anytime soon. Iran must 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:38.760 be rendered militarily useless. Well, how much do you bomb Tehran? 0:22:38.880 --> 0:22:41.400 How much infrastructure do you get rid of? The more 0:22:41.400 --> 0:22:43.280 infrastructure you get rid of, the more we're going to 0:22:43.359 --> 0:22:45.600 have to pay to rebuild. And this idea that we're 0:22:45.600 --> 0:22:47.800 not going to pay to rebuild a country we've bombed, 0:22:48.280 --> 0:22:50.679 it's pretty un American of us. We rebuilt Japan, we 0:22:50.760 --> 0:22:54.719 rebuilt Germany. This is what we do. This is how 0:22:54.760 --> 0:22:57.520 we keep credibility in the world as leader of the 0:22:57.520 --> 0:23:01.000 free world. Maybe this is not the way Donald Trump thinks, 0:23:01.680 --> 0:23:04.480 but it will be a stain on America if we're 0:23:04.520 --> 0:23:08.000 not involved in this. Now he's also said Iran must 0:23:08.040 --> 0:23:11.440 be totally defeated. What does that look like? They're powerful phrases, 0:23:11.440 --> 0:23:15.320 but they're not strategies. Regional officials people in Turkey are 0:23:15.359 --> 0:23:18.560 warning that Iran and its allies have enough drones and 0:23:18.560 --> 0:23:23.080 missiles to sustain months of fighting. And here's the thing. 0:23:24.720 --> 0:23:29.040 The Iranians have a lower level of what victory looks 0:23:29.080 --> 0:23:35.320 like for them. The regime surviving is victory, so we 0:23:35.359 --> 0:23:37.399 could pummel them to death. This is like a bad 0:23:37.480 --> 0:23:45.080 version of Ropodote. Right. If they're still in power despite 0:23:45.920 --> 0:23:48.840 holy hell terror that has been dropped upon them by 0:23:48.840 --> 0:23:52.400 the US military, in the Israeli military, and the regime 0:23:52.560 --> 0:23:58.040 is still in power, that becomes a symbolic victory against 0:23:59.680 --> 0:24:01.919 in a way way that that that that is hard. 0:24:02.880 --> 0:24:05.520 I don't think we fully appreciate. It's like what happened 0:24:06.000 --> 0:24:13.600 with US in Vietnam and with the Russians in Afghanistan. Meanwhile, 0:24:13.640 --> 0:24:17.920 is Donald Trump can he handle months of this? Even 0:24:17.920 --> 0:24:22.600 the Iranians just surviving months will do huge We'll have 0:24:22.640 --> 0:24:26.760 a huge negative impact on the global economy, gigantic impact 0:24:26.760 --> 0:24:31.359 on the global economy which will hit us. Does it 0:24:31.400 --> 0:24:35.960 cause a recession? Right? If we're in this four months. 0:24:39.160 --> 0:24:40.680 The problem he's got is he doesn't want to send 0:24:40.680 --> 0:24:42.679 in any ground troops and the and the reality is 0:24:42.720 --> 0:24:44.359 if you talk to military leaders, they are going to 0:24:44.359 --> 0:24:46.240 tell you you're not gonna be able to resolve this 0:24:46.320 --> 0:24:49.040 situation in the way he wants to resolve it, probably 0:24:49.080 --> 0:24:51.639