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Speaker 1: They're happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of the

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Speaker 1: check podcast. It is a Wednesday in an even numbered year,

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Speaker 1: which means were the day after a Tuesday, which means

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Speaker 1: if it's Tuesday, somebody was voting somewhere the somewheres that

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Speaker 1: I that we should be paying attention to special election

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Speaker 1: to place Marjorie Taylor Green. That it was an all

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Speaker 1: candidate jungle primary. That's why you see the Democratic candidate

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Speaker 1: looking like they did really well. There was a whole

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Speaker 1: bunch of Republicans. This now goes to a runoff. I

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Speaker 1: wouldn't hold my breath about Democrats there. They you know,

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Speaker 1: if they lose by single digits, it's a big deal.

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Speaker 1: This is still a very conservative district. And in fact,

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Speaker 1: I think I read one stat that even in those

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Speaker 1: big Public Service Commission races in November of twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: I believe the Democratic candidate's it's still underperformed by some

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Speaker 1: thirteen points in this district. So it's a it is

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Speaker 1: a very conservative district, and it is it is going

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Speaker 1: to be. It is going to go to the Trump

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Speaker 1: endorsed candidate. But you know it again, to me, single

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Speaker 1: bidgets would be a big deal come the runoff, and

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Speaker 1: it will be a low turnout situation. So the likelihood

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Speaker 1: of it being closer than it should be is is higher.

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Speaker 1: There in Mississippi, we had no really major primaries. Bennie Thompson,

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Speaker 1: the longtime Democratic member of Congress there was challenged by

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Speaker 1: someone younger that was not It's competitive, but not that close.

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Speaker 1: He survives. I'm gonna have a little bit more to

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Speaker 1: say about the battle for the Senate because we had

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Speaker 1: a big, a big change with the Montana News. I

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Speaker 1: actually have a little bit of an update on where

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Speaker 1: I think Montana stands in the battle for the Senate.

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Speaker 1: Needless to say, it is in play. The question is

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Speaker 1: how in play is it. This is going to be

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Speaker 1: a complicated issue for the National Democratic Party because of

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Speaker 1: the strength potential strength of this independent candidate in the

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Speaker 1: former University of Montana military veteran Seth Bodner. I also

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Speaker 1: because it's Mississippi primary day, I decided. I told you

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Speaker 1: I've been sitting on some book research for years that

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Speaker 1: is about featuring and showcasing the all time greatest campaigns

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Speaker 1: in every state. Well it's Mississippi week, so I thought

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Speaker 1: I would reveal my top five all time campaigns in

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Speaker 1: Mississippi history. And it's got a bit of a twist.

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Speaker 1: It's a little bit of a history lesson and a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a showcase. And I think it shows

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Speaker 1: you how far where Mississippi was, where it has been,

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Speaker 1: where it's headed, and where it is now. But if

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Speaker 1: you're a political junkie, I think you'll enjoy it. And

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Speaker 1: as always, if you disagree with my order, let me

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Speaker 1: know what I missed. I'd love to this to me,

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Speaker 1: is open source history, lesson here on that stuff. Then

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Speaker 1: of course I'll take some questions. But let's begin with

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Speaker 1: what is now consuming this presidency and what may devour

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Speaker 1: this presidency, and that is the war of choice. And

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Speaker 1: that's what this is, and this is what makes it

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Speaker 1: so precarious politically for Donald Trump. His war of choice

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Speaker 1: in Iran. We're more than a week into it, and

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Speaker 1: depending on which part of the administration you listen to,

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Speaker 1: this war is either going to end very quickly, extend

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Speaker 1: for quite some time, or evolve into something else entirely.

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Speaker 1: And that uncertainty alone would be enough to rattle markets

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Speaker 1: and policymakers. But boy, the first two days of this

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Speaker 1: week revealed something else that may be even more destabilizing,

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Speaker 1: a massive credibility problem, not just with allies, not just

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Speaker 1: with Congress, but with financial markets. We've now had two

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Speaker 1: days of trading since this war started this week, right,

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Speaker 1: and both days the administration appeared to want to manage

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Speaker 1: or manipulate the markets. So on Monday, right, we had

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Speaker 1: this interesting glimpse of how this residency is operating during

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Speaker 1: this crisis. Financial markets open the day already rattled by

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Speaker 1: the war, oil prices surged amid fears that the conflict

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Speaker 1: was going to disrupt global supply. The White House quickly

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Speaker 1: moved to calm those fears. President Trump suggested, I called

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Speaker 1: up the CBS News correspondent and he suggested to her

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Speaker 1: that the war might end sooner than expected. Remarks that did.

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Speaker 1: What by the way, he did this interview before the

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Speaker 1: markets closed at four pm Eastern time, and those remarks

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Speaker 1: helped ease market anxiety, pushed oil prices lower, pushed the

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Speaker 1: markets higher. And then hours later he speaks in front

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Speaker 1: of House Republicans, and what, by the way, what a

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Speaker 1: disastrous speech that was. If he's trying to rally the

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Speaker 1: troops or the midterms. I don't know if the troops

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Speaker 1: are going to go through a paper mache wall, let

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Speaker 1: alone one that is going to have bricks in it.

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Speaker 1: But I digress. By the evening, the President was warning

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Speaker 1: that the United States was prepared to escalate the conflict

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Speaker 1: and continue fighting until Iran was, in his words, totally

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Speaker 1: and decisively defeated. Now it's possible he was reading for

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Speaker 1: an old speech script. Maybe his mind he was trying

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Speaker 1: to speed up the end of this thing, and then

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Speaker 1: he had prepared remarks for the House Republican retreat. Maybe

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Speaker 1: that's the thing with this administration, right, can you trust

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Speaker 1: anything they do? Can you at all trust what's coming

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Speaker 1: out of their mouth means something for more than an hour.

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Speaker 1: So in the same day on Monday, we got both

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Speaker 1: reassurance and ended with escalation. So markets in the morning,

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Speaker 1: military messaging in the evening. Is that what we're supposed

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Speaker 1: to take away from this? Not one hundred percent sure

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Speaker 1: it was really anything other than do whatever it took

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Speaker 1: to calm the markets down and we'll worry about tomorrow tomorrow.

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Speaker 1: This feels like they are managing this by the day,

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Speaker 1: by the hour, right, and we know the only guardrail

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Speaker 1: that moves Trump at all is the markets. He's been

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Speaker 1: unusually sensitive to market reactions, you know, care Off day.

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Speaker 1: If he could pull it undo the start of this war,

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Speaker 1: I think he already would have, just like he did

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Speaker 1: with his tariffs on Liberation Day. But you can't unbomb

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Speaker 1: the country Kenya. So now it appears the presidency is

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Speaker 1: now chasing the markets, and this kind of rapid shift

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Speaker 1: suggests something important about how this administration is govering. Right now,

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Speaker 1: it looks a lot less like a carefully sequenced strategy

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Speaker 1: and more like a presidency that is operating by the

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Speaker 1: seat of their pants reaction instead of direction. It's just

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Speaker 1: what I said on Monday. Welcome to quicksand. This presidency

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Speaker 1: is getting devoured ever so slowly by the quicksand of

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Speaker 1: this war in Iran. Every attempt to stabilize one part

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Speaker 1: of the situation creates risking instability somewhere else. That was Monday.

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Speaker 1: Then Tuesday, a social media post from the Secretary of

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Speaker 1: Energy briefly suggested that the US naval forces had successfully

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Speaker 1: escorted oil tankers through the straight of hormones. Well, guess what.

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Speaker 1: Markets loved it. They reacted instantly. Oil prices plunged in

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Speaker 1: just a few minutes in exchange traded fund tied to

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Speaker 1: oil futures lost roughly eighty four million dollars in market value.

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Speaker 1: Little manipulation of the markets. Huh. And then the post

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Speaker 1: was suddenly deleted. The explanation, Ah, the caption was wrong.

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Speaker 1: A staffer may have done it. They want to check

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Speaker 1: that staffer's investment brokers account. By the way, maybe that's true.

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Speaker 1: Do you trust them? Credibility matters big time at a

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Speaker 1: time of war, and this administration has burned through so

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Speaker 1: much of its credibility with the average American that you

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Speaker 1: are going to see a lot of questions about everything

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Speaker 1: they do or say, because what they say is not

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Speaker 1: what they do, and what they do is not what

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Speaker 1: they say. This administration has spent years eroding trust with institutions. Proactively.

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Speaker 1: They go out of their way to make sure you

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Speaker 1: don't us certain institutions. Look what they've done to the FBI.

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Speaker 1: They want the FBI distrust it, they want the irs

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Speaker 1: distrust it, and they've done it. They've made allies question

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Speaker 1: what we do. And now the markets what are they

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Speaker 1: supposed to believe? So when something like that happens, whether

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Speaker 1: it's intentional accidental, the benefit of the doubt is gone.

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Speaker 1: This is two days in a row. Look, we always

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Speaker 1: had the rule of three for deciding something's a trend.

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Speaker 1: So we've had two. But let's just say we're all

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Speaker 1: watching on Wednesday to see are they going to play

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Speaker 1: this game again? And markets do assume the government is

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Speaker 1: trying to move prices, and it's a dangerous place when

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Speaker 1: the global energy system is already under pressure for more

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Speaker 1: because eventually markets will stop reacting to government reassurance they

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Speaker 1: will only react to reality, and that's a scarier place

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Speaker 1: to be. I've noticed Secretary Treasury has been quite quiet.

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Speaker 1: He normally loves to jump in and play the game himself. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: the reality of the war is already becoming clear. This

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Speaker 1: was amazing. During their brief into Congress, we learned we

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Speaker 1: had already heard that the first week of the war

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Speaker 1: was costing at least six billion dollars worth of munitions. Well,

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Speaker 1: apparently they told Congress they burned through five point six

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Speaker 1: billion dollars worth of munitions in the first two days

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Speaker 1: of fighting alone. Two days. That's not a cost of

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Speaker 1: the war. That's just the cost of the ammunition. That

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Speaker 1: doesn't count the fighter jets that were lost to friendly fire. Right,

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Speaker 1: we know that's millions and millions of dollars just the ammunition.

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Speaker 1: And now the Pentagon's reporting roughly one hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: American service members have been wounded, most with minor injuries.

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Speaker 1: But it is pretty clear what a RAN's up to.

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Speaker 1: Iran is borrowing a playbook that overmatched countries have used

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Speaker 1: with success in the past. Whether it was what we

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Speaker 1: had to face in Vietnam, what Russia had to face

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Speaker 1: in Afghanistan. What the Taliban did to us in Afghanistan,

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Speaker 1: the insurgency that we dealt with in Iraq. This is

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Speaker 1: the asymmetrical part, the uncoordinated part of the Iranian Republican Guard.

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Speaker 1: This is why we are dealing now with an asymmetrical

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Speaker 1: fighting enemy, and that is a scary place to be.

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Speaker 1: Recent history tells us why. So meanwhile, the economy, So

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Speaker 1: you have rising oil prices which will impact inflation, a

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Speaker 1: potentially shrinking jobs market. Right. That was also happened last week,

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Speaker 1: and it has made the s word start to appear

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Speaker 1: stagflation fear because you've got oil prices surging, shipping routes

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Speaker 1: to the golfer under pressure. That's going to screw with

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Speaker 1: the supply chain. We saw what that did during COVID.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna have the same supply chain issues going through

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Speaker 1: the straight upore moves. Energy infrastructure across the region has

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Speaker 1: become a target. Even Pete Haig said that the Pentagon

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Speaker 1: was trying to push back on what the Israelis have

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Speaker 1: been doing and bombing too much of the energy infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: Aron's targeting energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Ua and Katar

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Speaker 1: They want to make this as painful as possible in

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Speaker 1: order to have our allies pressure the United States and

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Speaker 1: Israel to back off because of what they're going to

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Speaker 1: do to the global economy and if we end up

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Speaker 1: with stagflation rising prices combined with slowing economic growth. As

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Speaker 1: Austin Goulesby, he was president of the Chicago Fed one

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Speaker 1: time Obama economic advisor, he warned recently that when rising

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Speaker 1: unemployment collides with an oil shock, it creates the exact

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Speaker 1: kind of environment central banks fear the most. It's hard

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Speaker 1: to deal with. This is what life was like in

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Speaker 1: the seventies, and it sucked. Okay, My memories are sitting

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Speaker 1: in gas lines every other day, depending on if you're

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Speaker 1: an even number and odd number in your life plate,

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Speaker 1: and you had a weight in line to get if

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Speaker 1: it was your day for gas, and guess what, there

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Speaker 1: was always a line on that front. Yet the administration

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Speaker 1: is reporting exploring ways to bring gas prices down, as

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Speaker 1: they should. Right, You've got to try to do something. Now,

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Speaker 1: what they may try to do may risk unintended consequences.

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Speaker 1: They want to intervene. Somebody has thrown out this is

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Speaker 1: such a classic Trump move. I know Trump hasn't put

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Speaker 1: his fingerprints on it yet, but this feels like him.

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Speaker 1: He wants to intervene in the oil futures markets, basically

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Speaker 1: use US treasuries to mess around with the futures markets

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Speaker 1: to try to drive down the price of oil. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say economists reacted with alarm. One anaists warned it

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Speaker 1: could trigger the mother of all short squeezes because the

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Speaker 1: truth is simple. The Federal Reserve can print reserves. They

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Speaker 1: can print money, right and the Treasury can print money.

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Speaker 1: Neither one of them can print oil. And if they

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Speaker 1: try to use that money to manipulate the oil markets,

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Speaker 1: oh my. This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought

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Speaker 1: Chuck Toodcast is brought to you by American Financing. So

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Speaker 1: if you looked at your credit card statement lately, you're

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Speaker 1: Slash the Chuck toodcast use that code. Now, Democrats better

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Speaker 1: be careful of something here right now because of the

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Speaker 1: current shutdown involving TSA agents, right, especially as the war

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Speaker 1: sort of consumes Remember the underlying issue that was driving

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Speaker 1: the shutdown of the partial shutdown of DHS and the

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Speaker 1: first right, So while we have all these unfolding events

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Speaker 1: overseas and in global markets, we are still sitting with

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Speaker 1: this partial shutdown of DHS. TSA agents are now facing

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Speaker 1: the possibility of missing their second paycheck this week. I

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Speaker 1: have flown this week. TSA agents are getting kind of grumpy.

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Speaker 1: All of fellow travelers couldn't have been. You could hear it.

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Speaker 1: Everybody's been extra nice hanging there. Thanks for coming to work,

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Speaker 1: That's what I said. That's what a lot of people said.

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Speaker 1: But they're not getting paid. We've got spring break. Travel

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Speaker 1: is just starting to kick in. This is going to

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Speaker 1: be one of those things where public inconvenience is not

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Speaker 1: going to care about the political reasons why we're in

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Speaker 1: the situation that we're in. So Democrats have had leverage

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Speaker 1: in this fight, right the unpopularity of immigration enforcement of DHS.

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Speaker 1: But Christy Numb's been fired. There's kind of a focus

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Speaker 1: on a whole bunch of other stuff. So in some ways,

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Speaker 1: when do Democrats declare victory on this, they got numb fired.

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Speaker 1: They're going to get some changes, They're probably going to

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Speaker 1: get mull into at least agree to some things. That

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Speaker 1: is confirmation hearing this is just like that last shutdown.

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Speaker 1: They've made their point, they got some action. They certainly

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Speaker 1: have the public confirmation by the administration to the American

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Speaker 1: public that all was not right with the HS. They

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Speaker 1: better be careful here right right now. They don't want

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Speaker 1: to do it. You know, this is one of those

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Speaker 1: classic case when you're just just look at the politics

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Speaker 1: of the situation. The party you're running against is just

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Speaker 1: imploding on itself. This war with Iran is going to

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Speaker 1: be a weight around the ankle of every Republican running

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. So this is a classic case

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Speaker 1: where get out of the way, don't offer up your

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Speaker 1: opponent a lifeline, and sticking to their guns too long

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Speaker 1: on this partial shutdown, which is doesn't deal directly with

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Speaker 1: the part of DHS they want to be dealing with

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Speaker 1: that's already been funded. You're punishing the flying public, you're

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Speaker 1: punishing college kit, you're punishing families wanting to go visit

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Speaker 1: Grandma on Grandpa or Easter in passover. So I think

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Speaker 1: their calculation needs to shift here sooner rather than later,

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Speaker 1: because this is this is one of those again, when

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Speaker 1: the public is inconvenience, politics doesn't become very clean anymore.

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Speaker 1: And if airline airport lines starts stretching two or three

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Speaker 1: hours during the spring break travel season, people who normally

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Speaker 1: ignore the Washington mess start paying attention. So it's this

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Speaker 1: is a Democrat forced shutdown of DHS. And you know

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Speaker 1: there can point finger point all this and back and forth,

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Speaker 1: but they ought to be a bit aware of this

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Speaker 1: and ask themselves do they want to get in the

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Speaker 1: way of right now is a never ending set of

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Speaker 1: negative headlines impacting elected Republicans. But let's go back to

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Speaker 1: Iran a minute, because the bigger challenges. I do think

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Speaker 1: if he can undo this, see what this is not

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Speaker 1: going well? And there's because the problem is the enemy

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Speaker 1: always gets to say and Iran is not. This idea

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Speaker 1: that he was going to pull a venezuela is clearly

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Speaker 1: what he thought and now that ain't gonna happen. By

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Speaker 1: the way, this Kamane son, are we going to see him?

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Speaker 1: Is he alive? Is he in the hospital. Was he is?

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Speaker 1: He just sort of up up front for the Republican

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Speaker 1: Guard here? What's going on? Do we need this is there?

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Speaker 1: I think if if the Iranian regime wants some credibility still,

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Speaker 1: they probably need to have some proof of life here

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Speaker 1: on the Kamani Sun. It is interesting that he's been

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Speaker 1: named the third leader of Iran since the Islamic Revolution

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Speaker 1: in seventy nine, but we've not seen or heard from him.

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Speaker 1: Just something to keep in mind. But that gets us

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Speaker 1: back to how does this end? What does victory look like?

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Speaker 1: President has offered several versions. Ran must surrender. I don't

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Speaker 1: think they're going to do that anytime soon. Iran must

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Speaker 1: be rendered militarily useless. Well, how much do you bomb Tehran?

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Speaker 1: How much infrastructure do you get rid of? The more

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Speaker 1: infrastructure you get rid of, the more we're going to

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Speaker 1: have to pay to rebuild. And this idea that we're

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Speaker 1: not going to pay to rebuild a country we've bombed,

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Speaker 1: it's pretty un American of us. We rebuilt Japan, we

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Speaker 1: rebuilt Germany. This is what we do. This is how

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Speaker 1: we keep credibility in the world as leader of the

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Speaker 1: free world. Maybe this is not the way Donald Trump thinks,

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Speaker 1: but it will be a stain on America if we're

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Speaker 1: not involved in this. Now he's also said Iran must

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Speaker 1: be totally defeated. What does that look like? They're powerful phrases,

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Speaker 1: but they're not strategies. Regional officials people in Turkey are

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Speaker 1: warning that Iran and its allies have enough drones and

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Speaker 1: missiles to sustain months of fighting. And here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: The Iranians have a lower level of what victory looks

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Speaker 1: like for them. The regime surviving is victory, so we

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Speaker 1: could pummel them to death. This is like a bad

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Speaker 1: version of Ropodote. Right. If they're still in power despite

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Speaker 1: holy hell terror that has been dropped upon them by

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Speaker 1: the US military, in the Israeli military, and the regime

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Speaker 1: is still in power, that becomes a symbolic victory against

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Speaker 1: in a way way that that that that is hard.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we fully appreciate. It's like what happened

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Speaker 1: with US in Vietnam and with the Russians in Afghanistan. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: is Donald Trump can he handle months of this? Even

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Speaker 1: the Iranians just surviving months will do huge We'll have

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Speaker 1: a huge negative impact on the global economy, gigantic impact

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Speaker 1: on the global economy which will hit us. Does it

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Speaker 1: cause a recession? Right? If we're in this four months.

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Speaker 1: The problem he's got is he doesn't want to send

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Speaker 1: in any ground troops and the and the reality is

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Speaker 1: if you talk to military leaders, they are going to

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Speaker 1: tell you you're not gonna be able to resolve this

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Speaker 1: situation in the way he wants to resolve it, probably

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Speaker 1: without putting in troops on the ground. And yet you

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Speaker 1: want to talk about a catastrup probably the point where

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Speaker 1: he would lose. Many Republicans on the record that are

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Speaker 1: elected office against thing like that, so they don't want

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Speaker 1: to risk that. But that's the problem. When you start

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Speaker 1: a war where you automatically box yourself in on things

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Speaker 1: you won't do well, then you limit your ability to

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Speaker 1: actually win the thing. This is why there were so

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Speaker 1: many people trying to pull him back, including the Chairman

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Speaker 1: of the Joint Chiefs. Let's not forget he was doing

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Speaker 1: everything he could to make sure they were are you

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Speaker 1: sure you want to do this, because it wasn't going

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Speaker 1: to be clear how this was going to end, especially

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Speaker 1: since we worked did not work. There was no coordination

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Speaker 1: with there was no opposition to coordinate with, and what

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Speaker 1: opposition there was might have been killed by the regime

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Speaker 1: during the protests. So this fantasy that Trump had that

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Speaker 1: this was going to be he could find his Delci

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Speaker 1: Rodriguez is Iatola Rodriguez, is just that a fantasy. I

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Speaker 1: do you want to point out a few other things,

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Speaker 1: probably the surreal moment of the week, the old Russians

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Speaker 1: and Witkof and this sort of clown show that is,

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Speaker 1: these negotiators that all are doing business with these Middle

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Speaker 1: Eastern countries and then magically are somehow the negotiators here right. Well,

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Speaker 1: President Trump held a phone call with Vladimir Putin this

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Speaker 1: week and according to the Kremlin, Putin offered several proposals

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Speaker 1: to help end the war with Iran. And at the

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Speaker 1: same time, apparently one of Trump's envoys, this is Steve Whitcoff.

429
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 1: He was asked on television whether Russia might be sharing

430
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 1: intelligence with Iran and he said, well, they reassured us,

431
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: and Putin reassured him in the call with Trump that

432
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:45,679
Speaker 1: they weren't. And Witkoff said, with a straight face to

433
00:26:45,720 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 1: a CNBC anchor, we can take them at their word.

434
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 1: So again this is the same guy would not take

435
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,760
Speaker 1: the Iranians at their word, but we'll take the Russians

436
00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:59,720
Speaker 1: at their word. If your strategy depends on taking Vladimir

437
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 1: put at his word, you may not have much of

438
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:07,480
Speaker 1: a strategy. So, yes, the Iranians may be getting intelligence

439
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:10,359
Speaker 1: helped from the Russians. There's no doubt the Russians want.

440
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 1: The best thing to happen to Russian this war with

441
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 1: Ukraine is for the United States to be using up

442
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,399
Speaker 1: munitions that we're going to get rerouted to Ukraine and

443
00:27:19,480 --> 00:27:25,640
Speaker 1: instead we're using them up and it starves Ukraine of resources.

444
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 1: So of course Putin's going to play all sides of

445
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 1: this thing. Of course he's going to do what he

446
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 1: can to help Iran extend this war and keep the

447
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 1: United States distracted from helping Ukraine, even though he already

448
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 1: has a presidential leader who has little interest in helping Ukraine.

449
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: But you do have a majority of the US government

450
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 1: that actually does want to help Ukraine. Finally, there was

451
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 1: a story this week that's getting attle bit overshadowed, but

452
00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 1: it really erodes whatever credit. You know, Donald Trump was

453
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: trying to always be this idea that he was going

454
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 1: to get big government and big tech and big business,

455
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:07,680
Speaker 1: and he was going to be pretty tough on them,

456
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 1: and he was going to have a strong antitrust regime.

457
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 1: And certainly JD. Vance whose credibility right, This was the

458
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 1: guy that said no, there will be no new wars

459
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 1: under a Donald Trump. And then he was the one

460
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:19,639
Speaker 1: that said he loved Lena Khan and there was going

461
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 1: to be some really tough antitrust investigations of certain companies. Well,

462
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: guess what. The Justice Department abruptly reaches a settlement with

463
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:35,439
Speaker 1: Live Nation, the parent company of Ticketmaster, in the middle

464
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: of its anti trust trial. Just a year ago. The

465
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: government was trying to break up the company for for

466
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: operating and what many believe was an illegal monopoly when

467
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: it came to live events and concerts. And then suddenly

468
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 1: a deal. There's no breakup, just a handful of modest restrictions.

469
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: Even the federal judge overseeing the case expressed anger at

470
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:58,239
Speaker 1: how this settlement appeared without warning. He didn't know they

471
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 1: were still in talks. Well, guess what happened. We know

472
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,960
Speaker 1: you the fact that we have reporting confirming this. You

473
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 1: didn't even know that you knew exactly what happened. Live

474
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 1: Nation lobbyists went directly to senior Trump officials. They bypassed

475
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:18,480
Speaker 1: Justice Department lawyers because in this case it doesn't look

476
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: like the Justice Department was interested in settling. Nope, they

477
00:29:24,120 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 1: went ahead and did a deal behind the back of

478
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: the Justice Department. They stepped in to protect a ticketing

479
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: monopoly that millions of Americans complain about every time they

480
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:38,120
Speaker 1: try to buy a concert ticket. This is another one

481
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: of these things, just like he did to the Maha people, right,

482
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 1: and signing that pesticide executive order allowing that pesticide in.

483
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: He talks a big game unpopulism, and when push comes

484
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 1: to shove, if a lobbyist gets his ear and more

485
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 1: than just his ear, and it comes with some sort

486
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: of financial contribution attached and whatever slush fund he wants

487
00:30:06,560 --> 00:30:09,800
Speaker 1: it contributed to. But we see that this is a

488
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,800
Speaker 1: absolute pattern. Right, Monsanto had never given money. They gave

489
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: a million dollars. They get this executive order. Right. We've

490
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:20,360
Speaker 1: seen it with the crypto guys, We've seen it with

491
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:26,040
Speaker 1: the pardons. Now you've got this Live Nation thing. I

492
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 1: think it under mines. You know, we have some interesting

493
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,280
Speaker 1: new polling from my friends at NBC News and they

494
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: mostly it was mostly on the on the Iraq War

495
00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: and Iraq War oops, Iran War. I don't know how

496
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 1: many times I'm gonna Freudian slip that one. But what's

497
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 1: interesting in some of the studies they've done is there

498
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:51,760
Speaker 1: is this group of hard independence. It's about thirteen to

499
00:30:51,760 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: fifteen percent of the electorate. They're mostly young men, not

500
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: college educated, pretty diverse group of men. This is not

501
00:30:59,720 --> 00:31:01,920
Speaker 1: white men. I mean, there's a chunk of white men

502
00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:04,240
Speaker 1: in it, but it's pretty diverse between white men, black men,

503
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:12,000
Speaker 1: and Hispanic men, mostly younger, sort of under fifty. And

504
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:16,560
Speaker 1: these were the deciders, right, they went with Trump in

505
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: twenty four and it's these policies that they don't like. Right,

506
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 1: they're skeptical of corporations, but they're skeptical of the cultural

507
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: progressivism of the left too. But Trump continues to sort

508
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: of let them down, or at least remind them that

509
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,920
Speaker 1: he's not on their side. He may say things that

510
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 1: sound like he's on their side, but his actions always

511
00:31:43,320 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: put him on the side of the biggest donor or

512
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 1: the wealthiest person that gets into the room. A few

513
00:31:50,000 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 1: notes on the polling about Iran and I thought i'd

514
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 1: leave that, and then I'm gonna we'll get to my

515
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:59,080
Speaker 1: interview with John Adams. What's interesting here in this new

516
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: NBC News poll is that the numbers no matter how

517
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,320
Speaker 1: you ask the question whether you do you think the

518
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 1: United States should have or should not have taken military

519
00:32:08,680 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: action against Iran, forty one percent say the US should have,

520
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 1: fifty two percent they should not. Then, when you ask

521
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,959
Speaker 1: the question, do you approve or disapprove of President Trump's

522
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 1: handling of the situation Iran, forty one percent approve, fifty

523
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 1: four percent disapproved. So basically you're looking at identical numbers.

524
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: I thought it'd be worthy to note which groups is

525
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 1: it is the is the should have versus should not?

526
00:32:31,880 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: If should have ahead of the should not have. Here's

527
00:32:34,920 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: where should have bombed Iran is ahead of the should

528
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: not have bonbed Iran among voters fifty to sixty four.

529
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: That's gen X, that is in young baby boomers, that

530
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: continues to always be the strongest supporting group of Donald

531
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: Trump and MAGA. Yes it is. I am self aware

532
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: that this is my generation. White voters narrowly forty seven

533
00:33:00,480 --> 00:33:06,120
Speaker 1: six and of course self described Republicans seventy seven fifteen.

534
00:33:06,160 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: But it's under eighty. As I told you, you know,

535
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: eighty is a big deal. What is interesting this goes

536
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 1: to the same thing I think I told you I

537
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:18,200
Speaker 1: hinted about this. Those that say they're a part of

538
00:33:18,360 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 1: MAGA more than they are the GOP, they are more

539
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 1: supportive of these strikes. Right, MAGA influencers are pretty against

540
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: this decision to strike Iran. But the rank and file,

541
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 1: if Trump says this is what should be those that

542
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 1: say they are more of a MAGA supporter than Republican

543
00:33:36,840 --> 00:33:39,480
Speaker 1: are right there with Trump on whatever he says. What's interesting,

544
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 1: And according to the NBC News data, and frankly, this

545
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 1: is the other polling I've seen, Republicans who do not

546
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,920
Speaker 1: call themselves supporters of the Mega movement are much more

547
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:52,360
Speaker 1: skeptical about this Iran decision. Just fifty four percent support

548
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 1: say the United States should have bombed a run. It's

549
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 1: still a majority, but it's ninety percent among those that

550
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: call themselves MAGA Republican, and it's only fifty four percent

551
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 1: among those that don't. So it is, as you can see,

552
00:34:08,800 --> 00:34:15,560
Speaker 1: it's barely It's basically the core parts of the MAGA

553
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 1: Trump coalition are the only ones that even have a

554
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:24,719
Speaker 1: bare majority supporting what he's doing. I mean it is that.

555
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,640
Speaker 1: That's what you learn from this polling, and that's on

556
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 1: the again. This poll was done after the best news

557
00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 1: of this war had hit the voters, which was the

558
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 1: death of the Ayatola. What new information is going to

559
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:43,240
Speaker 1: make this better? I said, asked that question on Monday.

560
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:52,399
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621
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622
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Speaker 1: have a new top five list, And in honor of

623
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:29,400
Speaker 1: the Mississippi Primaries, I thought I would give you a

624
00:38:29,440 --> 00:38:35,520
Speaker 1: little bit on my top As I told you for years,

625
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,520
Speaker 1: I was working on a book about the you know,

626
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:42,880
Speaker 1: tales from the trail craziest campaigns in American history. Every

627
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 1: state has that wait to hear the story about this one.

628
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 1: So last week I gave you the five my all

629
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 1: time five greatest statewide campaigns in Texas history. Today, I decided,

630
00:38:53,880 --> 00:38:56,359
Speaker 1: with Mississippi on the ballot on Tuesday, i'd do the

631
00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:06,000
Speaker 1: top five top five top And by the way, who

632
00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 1: knows if this Senate race in the general election Sidney

633
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:13,080
Speaker 1: Hyde Smith the Republican incumbent District Attorney Scott Colem who

634
00:39:13,360 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: Sidney Hyde Smith blocked from becoming a federal judge. So

635
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: he decided, SCREWT now, I'm gonna run against her. Who

636
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:24,080
Speaker 1: knows right. If he somehow pulls off a victory, this

637
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: race will suddenly break into a top five because it

638
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 1: would be one of the greatest upsets in Mississippi history.

639
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: But I do expect this race, Sidney hight Smith that

640
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 1: you know, in a special election back in twenty eighteen

641
00:39:36,840 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: against Mike eSPI didn't break fifty five percent. You know,

642
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,520
Speaker 1: Mississippi is one of those where Democrats can get to

643
00:39:44,600 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 1: forty six forty seven actually fairly easily, not all of this,

644
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 1: but fairly easily. The problem they got is at last

645
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 1: three or four. You think it's hard to break the

646
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: barrier in Texas, it's really hard to break the bary

647
00:39:56,520 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: in Mississippi. Although it would cost less to do the

648
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:02,800
Speaker 1: ground in Mississippi that the State Party and the National

649
00:40:02,840 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 1: Party have paid lip service to over the years but

650
00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 1: have never actually done so. With that, though, it was

651
00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: interesting and putting together this top five list, there was

652
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:19,600
Speaker 1: there's sort of one election cycle in Mississippi history that

653
00:40:19,719 --> 00:40:25,480
Speaker 1: sort of you can't really categorize. And this is so

654
00:40:25,520 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 1: before we get to my top five, I do want

655
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:32,280
Speaker 1: to talk about the eighteen seventy five Mississippi elections because

656
00:40:33,000 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 1: it did essentially end reconstruction. Eighteen seventy five. It was

657
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:43,600
Speaker 1: called what historians have called this the Redemption elections in Mississippi.

658
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: At the time, the state was being governed by a

659
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 1: Republican coalition built during Reconstruction, supported heavily by newly enfranchised

660
00:40:51,239 --> 00:40:55,360
Speaker 1: black voters. The governor was Adelbert Ames, a former Union

661
00:40:55,400 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 1: general who had moved south after the Civil War, one

662
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 1: of the so called carpetbaggers, as Southerners would call these guys,

663
00:41:01,760 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 1: and he became one of the most powerful reconstruction politicians

664
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 1: in the state of Mississippi. White Democrats, though, organized a

665
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 1: coordinated campaign known as the Mississippi Plan in eighteen seventy five.

666
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:18,240
Speaker 1: This wasn't just about politics. It was about intimidation. Armed

667
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: rifle clubs appeared at Republican rallies. Black voters were threatened, beaten,

668
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 1: and sometimes killed. Polling places were surrounded. Ames asked Washington

669
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,920
Speaker 1: for federal troops to protect the vote, but the troops

670
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 1: never came. Democrats captured the legislature and soon forced Aims

671
00:41:34,840 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 1: to resign. Reconstruction in Mississippi effectively ended in eighteen seventy five,

672
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:42,440
Speaker 1: but the consequences didn't stop at the state line. The

673
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 1: strategy used in Mississippi in eighteen seventy five became the

674
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 1: blueprint for Southern Democrats across the South in eighteen seventy six.

675
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,799
Speaker 1: A year later, the country faced the first of what

676
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: would become a handful of disputed presidential elections in our history,

677
00:41:56,960 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 1: this one in eighteen seventy six between Samuel Tilden, the

678
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,000
Speaker 1: Democratic governor of New York, and RUTHERD. B. Hayes, the

679
00:42:02,040 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: Republican governor of Ohio. That crisis was resolved by the

680
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:09,880
Speaker 1: Uncomfortable Compromise of eighteen seventy seven, which ended federal enforcement

681
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: of reconstruction across the South. In some ways, Mississippi had

682
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 1: already ended reconstruction two years before the rest of the

683
00:42:15,840 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 1: country admitted it. For the next ninety years, Mississippi functioned

684
00:42:20,440 --> 00:42:24,960
Speaker 1: as a one party democratic state, the political system known

685
00:42:25,040 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 1: as in the Solid South. Everything on our list today

686
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 1: happens inside a political structure that was created in that

687
00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:36,439
Speaker 1: moment in eighteen seventy five. So it's hard to deal

688
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:40,040
Speaker 1: with the rest of campaign history in Mississippi without dealing

689
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: with the eighteen seventy five elections that up basically ended reconstruction.

690
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:48,120
Speaker 1: So with that being said, the top five most consulate,

691
00:42:48,120 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 1: and it's a combination. Look what you decide is you

692
00:42:53,560 --> 00:42:59,799
Speaker 1: know these are these are consequential elections, and that's why

693
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:01,759
Speaker 1: they made the top five list. Number one on my

694
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,000
Speaker 1: list is the nineteen to fifty nine race for Governor,

695
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:09,640
Speaker 1: Ross Barnett and the politics of defiance. This is the

696
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:11,759
Speaker 1: first campaign that takes us to the height of the

697
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:14,440
Speaker 1: civil rights era. The candidate was Ross Barnett. He was

698
00:43:14,480 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 1: a Jackson trial lawyer who'd already run for governor twice

699
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 1: and lost. Barnett was also a proud member of what

700
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:23,920
Speaker 1: was a successor to the Klan called Citizen Councils, this

701
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:28,400
Speaker 1: segregationist organization that emerged after the Supreme Court under Chief

702
00:43:28,480 --> 00:43:31,359
Speaker 1: Justice or A. Warren, ordered school desegregation in Brown versus

703
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 1: Board of Education. Barnett's campaign message was blunt. He told

704
00:43:34,880 --> 00:43:39,520
Speaker 1: crowds the good Lord was the original segregationist. Barnett finished

705
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 1: first in the Democratic primary, then won the runoff against

706
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 1: the Lieutenant governor, Carol Garden. Barnett won the runoff with

707
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 1: about fifty five percent of the vote. No, there was

708
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,880
Speaker 1: no Republican This was the old Democratic primary decided who

709
00:43:50,920 --> 00:43:52,560
Speaker 1: was governor in the South in a lot of places,

710
00:43:53,239 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: so Barnett was basically unopposed even at A campaign song

711
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:01,640
Speaker 1: that became the song of the state of Mississippi was

712
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 1: called Roll with Ross. Supporters would sing it at rallies

713
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 1: across Mississippi, and after Barnett won, the melody eventually became

714
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:14,360
Speaker 1: the official state song, Go Mississippi. But this campaign promising

715
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 1: to enforce segregation wasn't just theater. Barnett was governor in

716
00:44:18,440 --> 00:44:20,920
Speaker 1: nineteen sixty two when a Black Air Force veteran named

717
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 1: James Merrith excuse me applied to the University of Mississippi.

718
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:29,280
Speaker 1: Barnett personally tried to block Meredith from enrolling. Riots erupted

719
00:44:29,320 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 1: on campus. Two people were killed, hundreds were injured. Eventually,

720
00:44:32,239 --> 00:44:35,120
Speaker 1: the President John F. Kennedy sent federal troops to enforce

721
00:44:35,160 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 1: the court order. Barnett's nineteen fifty nine campaign was the

722
00:44:38,120 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 1: political mandate behind that confrontation. Mississippi voters didn't stumble into definance.

723
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 1: They elected it. He basically promised that he was never

724
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 1: going to desegregate Mississippi schools, and that fifty nine campaign

725
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 1: gave us the showdown at Ole, miss in nineteen sixty two.

726
00:44:57,120 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: Second campaign on my list is the nineteen seventy eight

727
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 1: Senate r This had some drama in it is the

728
00:45:02,560 --> 00:45:07,239
Speaker 1: first Republican to break to crack the solid South, and

729
00:45:07,280 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 1: it reshaped Mississippi's party. It basically created a two party system.

730
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:14,880
Speaker 1: In seventy eight, long time Democratic Senator James Eastland decided

731
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:19,080
Speaker 1: to retire after nearly four decades in office. The Democratic

732
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 1: nominee was Maurice Danton. The Republican nominee was Dad Cochrane.

733
00:45:23,400 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 1: He was a Congressman from Jackson. But the race had

734
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:29,880
Speaker 1: a third candidate, Eddie McBride, an independent that was supported

735
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 1: by Charles Evers, the mayor of Fayette. Charles Evers was

736
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:37,240
Speaker 1: also the brother of Medgar Evers, the NAACP Field Secretary

737
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:41,200
Speaker 1: of Mississippi, who was assassinated outside as Jackson Home in

738
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 1: nineteen sixty three. McBride siphoned off enough Democratic votes to

739
00:45:46,280 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: fracture that old coalition, Dad Cochrane won the Senate seat.

740
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 1: There were no runoffs for a general election back then.

741
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 1: Dad Cochran won with forty five percent, Maurice Danton got

742
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 1: forty three percent, and Eddie McBride, with the support of

743
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:03,880
Speaker 1: Charles Evers, got eleven percent. And that's how the first

744
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:07,400
Speaker 1: Republican was elected to the US Senate in Mississippi since reconstruction.

745
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:12,360
Speaker 1: Cochran would serve forty years in the Senate, eventually chairing

746
00:46:12,400 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 1: the Appropriations Committee. But Mississippi's political realignment began with a

747
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,440
Speaker 1: race that at the time nobody expected Republicans to win.

748
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 1: Forty five percent was about their ceiling back then, but

749
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,640
Speaker 1: when you throw a third party into the race, forty

750
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:29,960
Speaker 1: five percent became a winning number. Third campaign on my list.

751
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: Nineteen seventy nine Governor. This is one of these positive

752
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:42,719
Speaker 1: reform story. William Winter. He was a moderate Democrat from Granada, Mississippi.

753
00:46:42,800 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 1: He ran for governor in sixty seven and lost. He

754
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:48,160
Speaker 1: ran again in seventy five, and he lost again. In

755
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 1: seventy nine, he finally won and he won big sixty

756
00:46:51,480 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 1: one percent. The Republican Now when he got thirty nine

757
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,319
Speaker 1: percent Democratic primary of course was the whole thing. But

758
00:46:56,360 --> 00:46:59,360
Speaker 1: the significance wasn't just the victory. It was what Winter

759
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:01,960
Speaker 1: did after, and it's a big deal in Mississippi. At

760
00:47:01,960 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 1: the time, Mississippi had no statewide kindergarten system and no

761
00:47:05,400 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 1: compulsory school attendance law. Believe it or not, Winter pushed

762
00:47:09,160 --> 00:47:14,280
Speaker 1: through a sweeping education reform package after months of campaigning

763
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:16,520
Speaker 1: for the plant across the state. The Education Reform Act

764
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:19,560
Speaker 1: of nineteen eighty two passed the legislature by just one vote,

765
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:25,839
Speaker 1: but that one vote created public kindergarten dramatically expanded Mississippi

766
00:47:25,840 --> 00:47:29,879
Speaker 1: school system. Clarion Ledger called it the Mississippi Miracle, and

767
00:47:29,920 --> 00:47:32,880
Speaker 1: it has been. You know, look it is Mississippi trailed

768
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 1: for a long time, but most recently you heard here

769
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:39,200
Speaker 1: from Marama Manuel how the continued investment in their public

770
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 1: education system now has thanks to new funding and a

771
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:51,560
Speaker 1: new reading program by Jim Barksdale, founder of Netscape, they're

772
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:55,919
Speaker 1: in the top five in the country when it comes

773
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: to third grade reading. Fourth campaign on My List nineteen

774
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:03,920
Speaker 1: ninety nine, Governor, This was a weird election. Mississippi once

775
00:48:03,960 --> 00:48:07,200
Speaker 1: had one of the strangest gubernatorial election systems in America.

776
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 1: It's kind of their own version of the electoral college.

777
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 1: To win the governorship, a candidate had to win a

778
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:15,719
Speaker 1: majority of the statewide vote and a majority of the

779
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:18,759
Speaker 1: House districts state house districts, and if nobody achieved both,

780
00:48:18,800 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 1: the election went to the Mississippi House of Representatives. The

781
00:48:22,160 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 1: rule dated back to the eighteen ninety constitution, written during

782
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:28,640
Speaker 1: the Jim Crow era. It was all about making sure

783
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 1: no Republican or black candidate could win. That's what member

784
00:48:33,760 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 1: every runoff rule, all the runoff rules in the South

785
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 1: were all about denying black candidates an opportunity to win

786
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 1: statewide and win in pluralities. So this was one of

787
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:47,920
Speaker 1: these weird things they put into their constitution. And again

788
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 1: when they did, it tells you everything you need to know.

789
00:48:50,719 --> 00:48:55,680
Speaker 1: Eighteen ninety right, and smack dab in Jim Crow. But

790
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,680
Speaker 1: it never actually came into play until the nineteen ninety

791
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 1: nine It would come into play one more time, and

792
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 1: I'll get to it in a minute. The candidates were

793
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:08,279
Speaker 1: Ronnie Musgrove, Democratic Lieutenant governor and a Republican congressman named

794
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 1: Mike Parker. Musgrove wins forty nine point six percent of

795
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 1: the vote, Mike Parker got forty eight point five percent

796
00:49:14,080 --> 00:49:17,319
Speaker 1: of the vote. Two percent went to others. Musgrove won

797
00:49:17,400 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 1: the popular vote, but the House district count ended sixty

798
00:49:21,160 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 1: one districts for Musgrove, sixty one districts for Parker. It

799
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,280
Speaker 1: was a time and under the state constitution, the election

800
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:32,399
Speaker 1: went to the Mississippi House. Well, this was nineteen ninety nine,

801
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 1: but believe it or not, the Democrats still controlled that chamber.

802
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:38,720
Speaker 1: There were a few chambers they controlled into the early odds.

803
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 1: Mississippi was one of them. Oklahoma was one of them. Anyway,

804
00:49:42,719 --> 00:49:46,200
Speaker 1: they narrowly elected Musgrove governor, but it remains the only

805
00:49:46,280 --> 00:49:49,920
Speaker 1: time in modern Mississippi history that the legislature chose the

806
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:53,600
Speaker 1: governor instead of the voters. And in twenty twenty, Mississippi

807
00:49:53,680 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 1: voters themselves finally abolished that system. Number five on my

808
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,399
Speaker 1: list is in a pretty important race because I think

809
00:50:01,480 --> 00:50:04,760
Speaker 1: it was a preview of something that the Republican Party

810
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 1: was about to do. It was the twenty fourteen Senate

811
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:11,720
Speaker 1: Republican primary. It was the final campaign for Thad Cochran.

812
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,840
Speaker 1: He'd been in the Senate thirty six years. The challenger

813
00:50:15,400 --> 00:50:20,120
Speaker 1: was a Tea Party supporting state senator named Chris McDaniel.

814
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:23,720
Speaker 1: First prime first round of the primary vote shocked people.

815
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:27,600
Speaker 1: McDaniel just missed avoiding a runoff. He got forty nine

816
00:50:27,640 --> 00:50:30,320
Speaker 1: point five percent of the vote. That Cochran got forty

817
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:33,919
Speaker 1: nine zero percent of the vote, So no candidate got

818
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:37,880
Speaker 1: fifty percent a runoff was required. This looked like Cochrane

819
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:42,120
Speaker 1: was a dead duck. Right runoffs, fewer voters show up,

820
00:50:44,520 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 1: the more conservative candidate usually wins. In this case, it

821
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: was McDaniel, and yet Cochran won the runoff narrowly fifty

822
00:50:52,600 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 1: point eight percent. McDaniel got forty nine point two percent

823
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:58,680
Speaker 1: he wanted, by about seventy six hundred votes. Cochran survived

824
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:02,320
Speaker 1: by mobilizing a bunch of crossover voters, black voters in

825
00:51:02,320 --> 00:51:05,800
Speaker 1: the Mississippi Delta who had not participated in the Democratic primary.

826
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:07,959
Speaker 1: Remember this was the same this is the same issue

827
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: I've been bringing up about what John corn faces in Texas.

828
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:13,840
Speaker 1: A whole bunch of voters who voted early in the

829
00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:17,520
Speaker 1: Democratic primary now and are not available to Cornyn, the

830
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 1: more moderate of the two candidates against Paxton, for him

831
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:23,319
Speaker 1: to potentially message to and get them to vote. Well.

832
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:26,840
Speaker 1: This is what they advantaged Cochrane had. So the Democratic

833
00:51:26,880 --> 00:51:31,560
Speaker 1: primary was not really that well contested, so there wasn't

834
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 1: a huge turnout of Democrats for that primary, So there

835
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:37,239
Speaker 1: was a whole bunch of voters who hadn't voted, so

836
00:51:37,320 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 1: in theory they could vote in the Republican run off.

837
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 1: It was an ugly race. The race produced one of

838
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:48,879
Speaker 1: the strangest scandals in modern politics, and McDaniel's supporter broke

839
00:51:48,920 --> 00:51:52,839
Speaker 1: into the nursing home to photograph Cochrane's bedridden wife in

840
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 1: an attempt to embarrass the senator because he was living

841
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:59,280
Speaker 1: with another woman while his wife for years was dealing

842
00:51:59,320 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 1: with this health issue. Four people ended up arrested. But

843
00:52:03,600 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 1: the bigger deal of this race is that this is

844
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,799
Speaker 1: think about it. It's twenty fourteen. Tea Party was on

845
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 1: the move. That wing of the party was on the move.

846
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 1: Cochrane beat it back barely having to use Democrats. Twenty sixteen,

847
00:52:19,080 --> 00:52:24,160
Speaker 1: Donald Trump would get elected president. Looking back, here was

848
00:52:24,200 --> 00:52:27,080
Speaker 1: one of your canaries in the coal mine in twenty fourteen.

849
00:52:27,600 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 1: Now I will there were a few honorable mentions campaigns

850
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:33,319
Speaker 1: that didn't make my top five. I do want to

851
00:52:33,320 --> 00:52:36,120
Speaker 1: mention Blanche Bruce. He was elected to the Senate by

852
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 1: the Mississippi legislature in eighteen seventy four, year before the

853
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 1: eighteen seventy five those eighteen seventy five reset elections. He

854
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:47,760
Speaker 1: was the first African American elector to a full Senate term,

855
00:52:47,960 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 1: and he was the first Black American to preside over

856
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:54,359
Speaker 1: the United States Senate. Kirk Fordyce elected governor in nineteen

857
00:52:54,440 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 1: ninety one, he became the Mississipp's first Republican governor since reconstruction.

858
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 1: He won with fifty points eight percent of the vote

859
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 1: in ninety one. By the way, twenty eighteen centate runoff

860
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:07,280
Speaker 1: was a fascinating one because you had Sidney Hyde Smith

861
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:10,880
Speaker 1: and Mike esb The race was, you know, not a

862
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 1: blowout fifty four to forty six, but whoever was going

863
00:53:14,520 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 1: to win was going to make history. Mike sp if

864
00:53:16,760 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 1: he had won, would have been the first black Senator

865
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:23,359
Speaker 1: since Blanche Bruce in Reconstruction. And Sydney Hyde Smith would

866
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:25,239
Speaker 1: turn out to be the first woman ever elected to

867
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:28,279
Speaker 1: Congress in the state of Mississippi. And then, of course

868
00:53:28,320 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 1: there were there were two controversial flag referendums that really

869
00:53:33,560 --> 00:53:37,040
Speaker 1: divided the state. Two thousand and one, voters kept a

870
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:40,719
Speaker 1: Confederate era flag by a landslide sixty four to thirty six.

871
00:53:41,719 --> 00:53:44,880
Speaker 1: And yet in twenty twenty voters adopted a new Magnolia

872
00:53:44,920 --> 00:53:49,240
Speaker 1: flag in a bigger landslide seventy three twenty seven. Same issue,

873
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,799
Speaker 1: but it was two very different Mississippis. And I think

874
00:53:51,840 --> 00:53:54,080
Speaker 1: it's a good way to end there. Two thousand and

875
00:53:54,080 --> 00:53:56,920
Speaker 1: one told you that Mississippi wasn't ready to move on

876
00:53:57,080 --> 00:54:01,360
Speaker 1: from its from its past. By twenty two, Mississippi was

877
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:04,680
Speaker 1: ready to move on. So look, Mississippi's political history is

878
00:54:05,040 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 1: pretty clear. The elections of eighteen seventy five created a

879
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:12,000
Speaker 1: system that lasted nearly a century. But the campaigns we

880
00:54:12,040 --> 00:54:15,799
Speaker 1: walked through show how that system slowly cracked, shifted, and

881
00:54:15,840 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 1: eventually transformed from segregation to realignment the modern populism. It

882
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:25,759
Speaker 1: is worth noting Mississippi's election often foreshadow changes that later

883
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:31,480
Speaker 1: appear across the country. Anyway, So there's my top five list.

884
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:33,960
Speaker 1: Let me go back through them one more time for

885
00:54:35,160 --> 00:54:38,400
Speaker 1: the campaign geeks out there like me. Number one for

886
00:54:38,520 --> 00:54:43,280
Speaker 1: May fifty nine governor, the election of an avowed segregationist

887
00:54:43,360 --> 00:54:47,320
Speaker 1: that ends up giving us the showdown at Ole, miss

888
00:54:47,800 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 1: seventy eight Senate Pad Cochrane's shock election thanks to a

889
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:55,960
Speaker 1: third party candidate that siphon votes away from the Democrat

890
00:54:56,400 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 1: seventy nine governor, which gave elected a a Democrat who

891
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:04,920
Speaker 1: would transform Mississippi's education system that is still paying dividends today,

892
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:08,960
Speaker 1: nineteen ninety nine governor. They're a weird electoral college system

893
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:14,640
Speaker 1: produces ends up being used by the legislature, and I

894
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:16,839
Speaker 1: think people were so grossed out by it that it

895
00:55:16,880 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 1: was like there was always it was the beginning of

896
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:23,239
Speaker 1: the end of that system. It took two decades later

897
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:26,120
Speaker 1: for it to be gone, but it would be gone.

898
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:28,120
Speaker 1: And then, of course number five on my list the

899
00:55:28,160 --> 00:55:31,239
Speaker 1: Senate Republican primary from twenty fourteen. If you don't like

900
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:44,919
Speaker 1: my list, send me your thoughts, ask Chuck. All right,

901
00:55:45,200 --> 00:55:47,360
Speaker 1: it is time for questions, a little ass check. And

902
00:55:47,400 --> 00:55:51,640
Speaker 1: the first one it's perfect. It's almost a derivative. It says, hey,

903
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:55,000
Speaker 1: I enjoyed the five most consequential Texas elections. Do you

904
00:55:55,000 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 1: have a list for New Jersey by any chance? And

905
00:55:57,239 --> 00:55:59,040
Speaker 1: I do. I'm not going to give you the full

906
00:55:59,080 --> 00:56:03,279
Speaker 1: list now, but needless to say two that will definitely

907
00:56:03,320 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 1: be on this list are Bill Bradley's first race in

908
00:56:06,800 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 1: seventy six, he knocked off an incumbent senator. It is

909
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:14,760
Speaker 1: worth noting Harrison Williams, so that is one. The first

910
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 1: Tom Caine victory probably is going to get in there,

911
00:56:18,880 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 1: and the crazy Torrisselly replacement race, right, all the crazy

912
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 1: Trrisselly in Lautenberg and all of that business. So that's

913
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:32,359
Speaker 1: just a taste. There's a couple others that we get there.

914
00:56:32,400 --> 00:56:36,360
Speaker 1: I think the first Christy race is probably going to

915
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:39,799
Speaker 1: make my list, but it is you start. You know,

916
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:42,319
Speaker 1: Bill Bradley, by the way, I have and I have

917
00:56:42,400 --> 00:56:44,319
Speaker 1: another book that I've I have a lot of books

918
00:56:44,360 --> 00:56:47,600
Speaker 1: I've never written, but I'll tell you that this one

919
00:56:47,640 --> 00:56:50,319
Speaker 1: is I can't Believe they didn't become President book. And

920
00:56:50,400 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 1: there'd be like, I think there's eight or ten people

921
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:56,120
Speaker 1: that are I can't believe they never became president. Bill

922
00:56:56,160 --> 00:56:59,839
Speaker 1: Bradley is one of them. John Glenn is another one

923
00:56:59,840 --> 00:57:03,200
Speaker 1: of them. We may put Romney on that list someday, right,

924
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:08,040
Speaker 1: we may put in let me think, who else that

925
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:11,840
Speaker 1: I can't believe they didn't become president? List? Right? Hillary Clinton?

926
00:57:12,080 --> 00:57:14,560
Speaker 1: One hundred years from now, people may say she should

927
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 1: be on that list as well. But Bill Bradley, I think.

928
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:22,600
Speaker 1: I think what we found out is Bill Bradley's resume

929
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:25,480
Speaker 1: was more charismatic than Bill Bradley himself. And I say

930
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 1: that with love, and I know Senator Bradley a little bit.

931
00:57:29,080 --> 00:57:31,960
Speaker 1: He was always couldn't have been more charming, more nice,

932
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:35,960
Speaker 1: but he was a guy that didn't didn't command a

933
00:57:36,080 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 1: room in the way that you would and he just

934
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:42,160
Speaker 1: can't put your finger on it. In some ways he

935
00:57:42,200 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 1: was too cerebral, I think. But when you look at

936
00:57:46,080 --> 00:57:49,840
Speaker 1: that resume, Princeton Rhodes, scholar, all time great New York nick,

937
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:52,640
Speaker 1: all of that business, right, he should have had all

938
00:57:52,720 --> 00:57:57,400
Speaker 1: the markings of somebody that the country would want to

939
00:57:57,440 --> 00:58:01,200
Speaker 1: be as the representative of America for the world. John

940
00:58:01,240 --> 00:58:03,919
Speaker 1: Glenn's same thing, but he also was a bit charismatically

941
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:09,240
Speaker 1: challenged at times. His presidential hopes I've had some people

942
00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:11,680
Speaker 1: say came to an end even before he ever ran

943
00:58:11,720 --> 00:58:15,520
Speaker 1: in eighty four when he gave a lackluster keynote speech

944
00:58:15,560 --> 00:58:17,880
Speaker 1: at a DNC convention. I believe it was in seventy six,

945
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:22,320
Speaker 1: so anyway, but yes, I'll have more on New Jersey

946
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:24,320
Speaker 1: as we get closer, but you got to let me

947
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:26,560
Speaker 1: roll these out a week at a time, so give

948
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 1: you a little taste. Obviously, torus Elly right, all things

949
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 1: Porchs are going to be there, the Torch Song trilogy

950
00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:34,400
Speaker 1: as we used to call it back in the Hotline days,

951
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 1: the crazy Lotenberg stuff, all of that. But in fairness

952
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:46,200
Speaker 1: to Jersey, I would argue it's great characters have all

953
00:58:46,200 --> 00:58:49,960
Speaker 1: been in the last forty years, fewer great characters in

954
00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:51,680
Speaker 1: the first fifty years. But I know my friend Bill

955
00:58:51,720 --> 00:58:53,680
Speaker 1: Baroni will have a lot of thoughts on this, and

956
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:56,880
Speaker 1: I have to finish consulting with him. And I know

957
00:58:56,920 --> 00:59:00,160
Speaker 1: you're listening, Bill, so get your I know you you're

958
00:59:00,160 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot of opinions about this, So we'll

959
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 1: get that going, all right, And I promise that's coming soon.

960
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:07,880
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Don L. Saganaw Texas. Hey, check,

961
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:10,000
Speaker 1: appreciate listening to the podcast on Monday mornings while I

962
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:13,919
Speaker 1: try to reconnect with the brain cells necessary to serve

963
00:59:13,960 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 1: my bride coffee in bed. Well, good for you, coffee

964
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 1: in bed. You're a better husband than me, As I

965
00:59:18,960 --> 00:59:21,520
Speaker 1: recall from my Texas public school education background, the last

966
00:59:21,520 --> 00:59:23,880
Speaker 1: time the US declared war was in nineteen forty one.

967
00:59:23,960 --> 00:59:25,960
Speaker 1: One could argue that America has gone to war multiple

968
00:59:25,960 --> 00:59:29,680
Speaker 1: times since that time without declaring it. Since only Congress

969
00:59:29,720 --> 00:59:31,360
Speaker 1: is the power to declare war, could you explain how

970
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:34,760
Speaker 1: this continues to happen. Well, you've got this idea that

971
00:59:34,800 --> 00:59:38,760
Speaker 1: in these you know that these are I guess you

972
00:59:38,760 --> 00:59:41,720
Speaker 1: could say that they are abusing the part of the

973
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:47,480
Speaker 1: Constitution about a president having a certain amount of authority

974
00:59:47,520 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 1: to quote, defend the interests of the United States without

975
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:55,400
Speaker 1: having to go to Congress. Were we ever fighting Vietnam

976
00:59:55,480 --> 00:59:58,080
Speaker 1: or were we fighting the Russians and the Chinese who

977
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 1: were helping the North Vietnamese that situation. Now, Congress did

978
01:00:04,720 --> 01:00:10,560
Speaker 1: authorize the use of force in Iraq both times. So no,

979
01:00:10,680 --> 01:00:14,240
Speaker 1: we never declared war on those countries, but at least

980
01:00:14,360 --> 01:00:19,160
Speaker 1: there was an authorization of use of force there. But look,

981
01:00:19,200 --> 01:00:21,880
Speaker 1: your larger point is the more important one, which is

982
01:00:22,640 --> 01:00:26,600
Speaker 1: the inability of Congress to do its job to assert

983
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:33,440
Speaker 1: its authority. And I think in some ways I choose

984
01:00:33,440 --> 01:00:36,000
Speaker 1: to be I choose to look at the Trump presidency

985
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 1: as a necessary MRI. I think it has been an

986
01:00:39,760 --> 01:00:43,840
Speaker 1: incredible MRI. Right, we have learned about a lot of people,

987
01:00:44,320 --> 01:00:48,919
Speaker 1: a lot of entities, a lot of institutions. Right when

988
01:00:49,000 --> 01:00:51,800
Speaker 1: tested by Trump, which one of them who could stand

989
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 1: tall and who would fold like a cheap suit? And

990
01:00:56,600 --> 01:00:59,320
Speaker 1: I do think you have Rand Paul In a handful

991
01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:04,800
Speaker 1: of other Republicans wanting to reassert congressional authority. I there's

992
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:09,360
Speaker 1: this could be the silver lining of this, you know,

993
01:01:09,440 --> 01:01:14,080
Speaker 1: him stumbling into this Iran conflict which may not have

994
01:01:14,320 --> 01:01:18,320
Speaker 1: a clean ending anytime soon. Right, we may pull back

995
01:01:18,320 --> 01:01:20,240
Speaker 1: on how much we bomb the country, but it doesn't

996
01:01:20,240 --> 01:01:23,800
Speaker 1: feel like what's been started is going to easily be stopped.

997
01:01:25,600 --> 01:01:28,640
Speaker 1: That you will have a different type of Congress and

998
01:01:28,720 --> 01:01:31,760
Speaker 1: members of Congress who decide that they will read the

999
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:36,760
Speaker 1: Constitution and understand what Article one powers mean for them.

1000
01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:40,520
Speaker 1: That is that is my hope of what is the

1001
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:43,880
Speaker 1: silver lining of what has been this? We now understand

1002
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:48,240
Speaker 1: why why did the founders want these constraints around a

1003
01:01:48,320 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 1: run potential for a runaway executive? Just that to stop

1004
01:01:53,400 --> 01:01:56,440
Speaker 1: the potential of a runaway executive? Right, the whole point

1005
01:01:56,520 --> 01:02:02,360
Speaker 1: was to prevent a rogue monarch. Shall we say, we

1006
01:02:02,400 --> 01:02:05,680
Speaker 1: have all the tools to prevent this, We just have

1007
01:02:05,840 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 1: let our ability to use those tools atrophy. Maybe maybe

1008
01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:17,440
Speaker 1: this decision to do what he's doing in Iran will

1009
01:02:17,520 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 1: finally be the line that's crossed that gets more members

1010
01:02:22,280 --> 01:02:27,040
Speaker 1: of Congress realizing they have a large responsibility here and

1011
01:02:27,080 --> 01:02:29,960
Speaker 1: they need to get their act together. But it starts

1012
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:31,240
Speaker 1: with a speaker. You've got right now. You got a

1013
01:02:31,240 --> 01:02:33,360
Speaker 1: speaker in Mike Johnson who has no idea what he's doing.

1014
01:02:33,880 --> 01:02:38,880
Speaker 1: He's a spino right speaker name only Donald Trump. Essentially,

1015
01:02:38,920 --> 01:02:41,560
Speaker 1: you know, he's at the whims of whatever Trump wants.

1016
01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:45,400
Speaker 1: So he's a weak speaker. We've had a series of weeks.

1017
01:02:45,480 --> 01:02:47,480
Speaker 1: Pelosi was a strong speaker, but she was a bit

1018
01:02:47,520 --> 01:02:51,560
Speaker 1: too deferential to Democratic presidents. You know, this is only

1019
01:02:51,600 --> 01:02:55,520
Speaker 1: going to work is if the next speaker, when their

1020
01:02:55,680 --> 01:03:00,000
Speaker 1: party is in the White House, if they as certain

1021
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 1: congressional authority over partisan concerns. And we haven't had a

1022
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:10,240
Speaker 1: speaker do that in my lifetime. All right, next question

1023
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 1: comes from Donovan PG County, Maryland Go Army beat Navy.

1024
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 1: Woo can you say that in Maryland? I feel like

1025
01:03:15,880 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 1: we're Maryland, you know, I kind of I treat Navy

1026
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:23,680
Speaker 1: as semi home home time root form and all the

1027
01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 1: conference stuff, you know, is kind of a local ish team, right,

1028
01:03:27,480 --> 01:03:32,720
Speaker 1: Annapolis is local enough for me. But anyway, anyway, good

1029
01:03:32,760 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 1: for you, Donovan. I think I know, I think I

1030
01:03:34,600 --> 01:03:37,640
Speaker 1: know which Donovan this is. But I'll I'll be careful,

1031
01:03:38,000 --> 01:03:42,760
Speaker 1: so I'll say go army on this one, he says, Chuck.

1032
01:03:42,800 --> 01:03:45,640
Speaker 1: Given the significant erosion of America standing on the world

1033
01:03:45,720 --> 01:03:47,360
Speaker 1: stage in recent years, what do you think it will

1034
01:03:47,400 --> 01:03:50,320
Speaker 1: realistic take both from our next president and from US

1035
01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:52,400
Speaker 1: as a country to rebuild the trust incredibility needed to

1036
01:03:52,400 --> 01:03:55,360
Speaker 1: reclaim our role as global leader that kind of restoration

1037
01:03:55,440 --> 01:03:57,720
Speaker 1: even possible anymore, or as the window for America to

1038
01:03:57,760 --> 01:03:59,720
Speaker 1: be seen as the anchor of the international order permanently

1039
01:04:01,240 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 1: In all seriousness, Donovan, I don't think anything's permanently closed,

1040
01:04:04,120 --> 01:04:07,439
Speaker 1: but I think it's going to be years before we're

1041
01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:11,680
Speaker 1: seen as the credible leader here. It's going to take

1042
01:04:13,040 --> 01:04:19,120
Speaker 1: presidents of let's just take our relationship with Europe. Before

1043
01:04:19,240 --> 01:04:21,760
Speaker 1: Europe fully trusts America again to be as sort of

1044
01:04:21,840 --> 01:04:30,360
Speaker 1: security umbrella and be willing to sort of restore the

1045
01:04:30,400 --> 01:04:34,280
Speaker 1: sort of Cold War order of sorts, they're going to

1046
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:40,040
Speaker 1: have to see us have a succession of presidents, regardless

1047
01:04:40,040 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 1: of whether they're Democrats are Republicans, but basically two presidents

1048
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:48,400
Speaker 1: in a row from both parties that treat Europe with respect,

1049
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:53,200
Speaker 1: treat our allies with respect, don't want to empire, build,

1050
01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:56,560
Speaker 1: don't want to do I mean and so, so I

1051
01:04:56,600 --> 01:04:58,720
Speaker 1: think this is you know, we're at least a couple

1052
01:04:58,720 --> 01:05:01,960
Speaker 1: of decades away. Look at christ sis can change things overnight. Right,

1053
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:06,640
Speaker 1: America still has resources that many other countries don't, but

1054
01:05:06,720 --> 01:05:09,480
Speaker 1: it's going to take us. We're going to have to

1055
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:11,480
Speaker 1: do more to win back the hearts and minds of

1056
01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:14,080
Speaker 1: the world. Right when there's a natural disaster, we better

1057
01:05:14,360 --> 01:05:17,320
Speaker 1: always be the first boats there and the first you know,

1058
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:22,160
Speaker 1: it's going to take a lot more international largess, the

1059
01:05:22,200 --> 01:05:27,000
Speaker 1: restoration of USAID, the restoration of soft power, but none

1060
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:31,800
Speaker 1: of that happens overnight. So we're sadly probably a generation

1061
01:05:31,880 --> 01:05:35,720
Speaker 1: away from that. The next president can begin the healing.

1062
01:05:36,480 --> 01:05:38,640
Speaker 1: The president after that can do it. But you know,

1063
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:43,600
Speaker 1: it's it's sort of you know it, I don't know.

1064
01:05:44,160 --> 01:05:50,680
Speaker 1: Let you know, you can flip the switch on the

1065
01:05:50,720 --> 01:05:54,400
Speaker 1: treatment of African American voters in nineteen sixty four, but

1066
01:05:54,440 --> 01:05:58,000
Speaker 1: it but it really took another thirty or forty years

1067
01:05:58,040 --> 01:06:04,320
Speaker 1: before there was full, trust full, So it just takes time.

1068
01:06:05,920 --> 01:06:09,080
Speaker 1: And on this one, it's going to take the American

1069
01:06:09,160 --> 01:06:14,880
Speaker 1: public electing presidents of both parties in successive elections who

1070
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:18,280
Speaker 1: behave essentially the same way internationally, not necessarily with the

1071
01:06:18,280 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 1: same philosophies, but that we treat our allies with respect,

1072
01:06:21,560 --> 01:06:29,320
Speaker 1: that we just the basic things that Trump has thrown away. Look,

1073
01:06:29,360 --> 01:06:30,800
Speaker 1: I kind of think we're going to need it by

1074
01:06:30,880 --> 01:06:32,800
Speaker 1: necessity to try to restore these things. So it's going

1075
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:34,800
Speaker 1: to it's better for our security and it's better for

1076
01:06:34,840 --> 01:06:40,240
Speaker 1: our economy. But thanks for asking pretty much the hardest

1077
01:06:40,320 --> 01:06:43,680
Speaker 1: question somebody is asked. But like I said, I think

1078
01:06:43,680 --> 01:06:48,240
Speaker 1: I know who this is and I appreciate the curveball.

1079
01:06:51,120 --> 01:06:53,800
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Roger and Farmington, Minnesota. Chuck, will

1080
01:06:53,800 --> 01:06:55,800
Speaker 1: abortion emerges as a national issue in the twenty twenty

1081
01:06:55,800 --> 01:06:57,880
Speaker 1: six midterms or as jobs effectively taking it off the

1082
01:06:57,920 --> 01:07:00,120
Speaker 1: table and made it a state by state issue the

1083
01:07:00,120 --> 01:07:05,760
Speaker 1: next generation? I I don't think. I still think that

1084
01:07:07,360 --> 01:07:09,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna stand by a prediction I made five years

1085
01:07:09,400 --> 01:07:12,280
Speaker 1: ago that I think, but by the end of the decade,

1086
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:18,080
Speaker 1: Congress will cadify Row and I think if Democrats get

1087
01:07:18,080 --> 01:07:24,040
Speaker 1: the majority, in both the Senate and the House, they'll

1088
01:07:24,040 --> 01:07:33,240
Speaker 1: do this, and if they don't, and if they don't try,

1089
01:07:33,400 --> 01:07:37,160
Speaker 1: I think they could pay a political price on that front.

1090
01:07:41,280 --> 01:07:43,320
Speaker 1: But I think with so many other issues, you know,

1091
01:07:43,400 --> 01:07:45,520
Speaker 1: abortion will come back to being an issue when the

1092
01:07:46,120 --> 01:07:52,720
Speaker 1: you know, cultural issues, and abortion is it's a healthcare issue,

1093
01:07:52,760 --> 01:07:54,800
Speaker 1: but it's also a cultural issue, and it's also you know,

1094
01:07:57,160 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 1: those issues rise up when the economy is health those

1095
01:08:01,200 --> 01:08:04,760
Speaker 1: issues get pushed down when the economy is unhealthy. And

1096
01:08:04,800 --> 01:08:06,880
Speaker 1: this is an unhealthy economy, and there's a lot of

1097
01:08:06,920 --> 01:08:11,040
Speaker 1: fear out there about economic well being, job displacement. So

1098
01:08:12,320 --> 01:08:18,240
Speaker 1: while I expect abortion to be used in a handful

1099
01:08:18,280 --> 01:08:22,240
Speaker 1: of campaigns, I don't think it's a big issue in

1100
01:08:22,280 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 1: these midterms. Across the board, we're not seeing as many

1101
01:08:27,280 --> 01:08:32,040
Speaker 1: referendums and things like that. But I think this becomes

1102
01:08:32,080 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 1: an interest if Democrats win both the House and the Senate.

1103
01:08:36,720 --> 01:08:39,400
Speaker 1: How aggressive do they get at trying to codify ROW?

1104
01:08:40,080 --> 01:08:44,720
Speaker 1: And is there a version of codifying ROW that can

1105
01:08:44,760 --> 01:08:50,240
Speaker 1: get whatever number of Republican Senators they need. Let's let's

1106
01:08:50,240 --> 01:08:52,599
Speaker 1: say they have a majority by two seats. Let's say

1107
01:08:52,600 --> 01:08:54,439
Speaker 1: it's a fifty two forty eight can they find eight

1108
01:08:54,479 --> 01:08:57,160
Speaker 1: Republicans to go along with them on a version that

1109
01:08:57,200 --> 01:08:59,880
Speaker 1: codifies Row, that says has a you know that gets

1110
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:04,040
Speaker 1: some Rakowskian board because she'll be there. Do you get

1111
01:09:04,080 --> 01:09:06,920
Speaker 1: do you get something that gets a hand a handful

1112
01:09:06,960 --> 01:09:13,360
Speaker 1: of some of these? I don't know, or do we

1113
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:17,560
Speaker 1: see the philibuster gone? And I think it's very possible

1114
01:09:17,640 --> 01:09:20,679
Speaker 1: that if you have a younger set of Senate leaders,

1115
01:09:21,640 --> 01:09:24,559
Speaker 1: we may see the legislative philibuster go. Regardless of whether

1116
01:09:24,560 --> 01:09:26,439
Speaker 1: it's a deer or in our administration, it does feel

1117
01:09:26,479 --> 01:09:29,960
Speaker 1: as if right the momentum Republicans had to almost get

1118
01:09:30,040 --> 01:09:32,880
Speaker 1: rid of it, the momentum Democrats had to almost get

1119
01:09:32,960 --> 01:09:36,800
Speaker 1: rid of it. It feels like that sooner rather than later,

1120
01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:40,320
Speaker 1: we're going to have a change in the filibuster rule

1121
01:09:40,360 --> 01:09:47,160
Speaker 1: that gives Democrats a shot and codifying Row, which is again,

1122
01:09:47,280 --> 01:09:51,559
Speaker 1: what would I think the simplest, the most straightforward way

1123
01:09:51,600 --> 01:09:55,760
Speaker 1: they could go codifies Row into law. I think they

1124
01:09:55,760 --> 01:10:00,720
Speaker 1: could find eight Republican senators on that. Next question comes

1125
01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:03,000
Speaker 1: from a mirror from Denver and he writes, hey really

1126
01:10:03,040 --> 01:10:06,160
Speaker 1: appreciate the new format and especially enjoyed your two twenty

1127
01:10:06,160 --> 01:10:08,799
Speaker 1: three episode. Your time machine. Segment of how how Hitler

1128
01:10:08,920 --> 01:10:11,800
Speaker 1: used legal processes to consolidate power was compelling, but it

1129
01:10:11,880 --> 01:10:14,040
Speaker 1: left me wondering how you square that with your critique

1130
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:17,400
Speaker 1: of Democratic legislators pushing back against red state redistricting efforts.

1131
01:10:17,520 --> 01:10:19,840
Speaker 1: If a party sees authoritarianism coming, is it wrong to

1132
01:10:19,920 --> 01:10:22,360
Speaker 1: use every tool available, even if it bends norms, to

1133
01:10:22,360 --> 01:10:24,040
Speaker 1: try to stop it. How should we think about the

1134
01:10:24,120 --> 01:10:26,800
Speaker 1: leaders today who use power aggressively to prevent something worse

1135
01:10:26,880 --> 01:10:29,800
Speaker 1: down the line? Best a mirror from Denver. You know,

1136
01:10:29,840 --> 01:10:31,519
Speaker 1: I've been thinking about this a lot. I've got to

1137
01:10:31,600 --> 01:10:35,120
Speaker 1: vote in this election in April. They're trying to redo

1138
01:10:35,160 --> 01:10:37,360
Speaker 1: the constitution here in Virginia to allow them to re

1139
01:10:37,360 --> 01:10:39,799
Speaker 1: redistrict in the middle and not use the fair district

1140
01:10:41,439 --> 01:10:45,480
Speaker 1: the fair district parameters that were passed into the state's constitution.

1141
01:10:47,040 --> 01:10:49,479
Speaker 1: And you know, I thought i'd use this. I've actually

1142
01:10:49,560 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 1: been This is something I meant to say earlier in

1143
01:10:51,439 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 1: the podcast, and this is actually a good way for

1144
01:10:54,560 --> 01:10:56,920
Speaker 1: me to bring them to close the podcast with it,

1145
01:10:57,040 --> 01:11:01,720
Speaker 1: because I do think I want to talk about the

1146
01:11:02,280 --> 01:11:07,400
Speaker 1: so called save Election Bill that Republicans are trying to pass.

1147
01:11:07,439 --> 01:11:09,320
Speaker 1: As I've said to you before, it is an unseerious

1148
01:11:09,400 --> 01:11:14,200
Speaker 1: attempt at election reform, a serious If Republicans cared just

1149
01:11:14,240 --> 01:11:17,920
Speaker 1: about voter ID, they could get voter ID passed if

1150
01:11:17,960 --> 01:11:20,000
Speaker 1: they just made it standalone. Voter I D not voter

1151
01:11:20,080 --> 01:11:22,320
Speaker 1: ID that says every married woman has to get their

1152
01:11:22,400 --> 01:11:25,160
Speaker 1: name changed in order for their voter registration roles to match.

1153
01:11:25,479 --> 01:11:27,240
Speaker 1: Right where you have to go back to the DMV

1154
01:11:27,320 --> 01:11:31,439
Speaker 1: and all I mean, the ridiculous parts of the bill

1155
01:11:31,520 --> 01:11:35,759
Speaker 1: that some are pushing with birth certificates and citizenship checks

1156
01:11:35,760 --> 01:11:40,800
Speaker 1: and all of this nonsense, you know, is not a

1157
01:11:40,960 --> 01:11:44,040
Speaker 1: serious It shows you that this is not a serious issue.

1158
01:11:44,120 --> 01:11:47,679
Speaker 1: That if anything, my great fear is that Donald Trump,

1159
01:11:48,320 --> 01:11:53,559
Speaker 1: he is advocating for an unrealistic election bill, which he

1160
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:57,040
Speaker 1: himself has said if they pass it, Democrats will never

1161
01:11:57,360 --> 01:11:59,799
Speaker 1: he hopes it means Democrats will never win an election

1162
01:11:59,800 --> 01:12:04,559
Speaker 1: for another fifty years, which you know, kind of says

1163
01:12:04,600 --> 01:12:08,160
Speaker 1: the quiet part out loud, right. They think they've not

1164
01:12:08,800 --> 01:12:12,200
Speaker 1: put together a bill that makes elections fair for the country.

1165
01:12:12,479 --> 01:12:14,679
Speaker 1: That they're trying to put together a bill that they think,

1166
01:12:14,720 --> 01:12:20,479
Speaker 1: in their minds creates an uneven playing field advantage to

1167
01:12:20,520 --> 01:12:23,680
Speaker 1: the Republicans. Now, the irony to This is one I

1168
01:12:23,720 --> 01:12:27,000
Speaker 1: do think if they passed this restrictive measures, Democrats would

1169
01:12:27,040 --> 01:12:29,920
Speaker 1: more likely follow get all the get all their paperwork

1170
01:12:29,920 --> 01:12:32,960
Speaker 1: in order before a lot of Trump's voters would On

1171
01:12:32,960 --> 01:12:38,000
Speaker 1: this front, We've seen this, right, Democrats pay more attention

1172
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:40,400
Speaker 1: to win special elections are these days and all that.

1173
01:12:40,600 --> 01:12:43,479
Speaker 1: So you know, when you look at sort of conforming

1174
01:12:43,520 --> 01:12:46,400
Speaker 1: to the rules and all that, I think that the

1175
01:12:46,439 --> 01:12:49,360
Speaker 1: irony is if the save AC passed, I think it

1176
01:12:49,400 --> 01:12:53,360
Speaker 1: would hurt Republican turnout more than it would hurt Democratic turnout.

1177
01:12:55,200 --> 01:12:57,719
Speaker 1: But you know, in the same way that Democrats weren't

1178
01:12:57,720 --> 01:13:00,640
Speaker 1: serious about their election reform bill at HR because they

1179
01:13:00,720 --> 01:13:04,280
Speaker 1: threw in stuff like publicly funding congressional elections and some

1180
01:13:04,400 --> 01:13:08,360
Speaker 1: things that just don't have majority support in the country,

1181
01:13:08,439 --> 01:13:12,040
Speaker 1: let alone majority support in the Senate. You know, it

1182
01:13:12,120 --> 01:13:14,600
Speaker 1: was a messaging bill, right it was. They wanted a

1183
01:13:14,640 --> 01:13:17,960
Speaker 1: talking point. And it's clear Republicans, this is a messaging bill.

1184
01:13:18,000 --> 01:13:20,760
Speaker 1: He wants a talking point. And I fear what Trump

1185
01:13:20,840 --> 01:13:23,639
Speaker 1: really wants is a rationale not to accept the results

1186
01:13:23,640 --> 01:13:27,960
Speaker 1: of the midterms. Even when I say not accept the

1187
01:13:28,000 --> 01:13:30,559
Speaker 1: results of the midterms, there's nothing he can do to

1188
01:13:30,600 --> 01:13:35,840
Speaker 1: prevent the swearing in of the new Congress. And there

1189
01:13:35,960 --> 01:13:38,439
Speaker 1: is one scenario I fear that a Speaker of the

1190
01:13:38,439 --> 01:13:41,520
Speaker 1: House couldn't outgoings speak of their house, could insert themselves

1191
01:13:41,720 --> 01:13:44,720
Speaker 1: in a situation, but only if the House majorities were

1192
01:13:44,760 --> 01:13:49,800
Speaker 1: really narrow I doubt. I think if Democrats right now,

1193
01:13:49,800 --> 01:13:51,439
Speaker 1: if the election were held today, they'd win the House

1194
01:13:51,439 --> 01:13:54,040
Speaker 1: by a big enough margin that Mike Johnson couldn't do

1195
01:13:54,080 --> 01:13:58,080
Speaker 1: anything to mess with it. But if Donald Trump wants

1196
01:13:58,160 --> 01:14:01,679
Speaker 1: to soothe himself by maybe he'll blame his own party

1197
01:14:01,680 --> 01:14:04,439
Speaker 1: for not passing the bill and say, you know, and

1198
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:09,320
Speaker 1: you know, everything is usually about deflecting blame for himself,

1199
01:14:10,800 --> 01:14:14,479
Speaker 1: So I think he sees this save act as a

1200
01:14:14,520 --> 01:14:18,680
Speaker 1: way to have a built in excuse for why his

1201
01:14:18,800 --> 01:14:21,920
Speaker 1: party's not going to do well in the midterms, and

1202
01:14:22,000 --> 01:14:23,479
Speaker 1: I do think he may use it as a way

1203
01:14:23,520 --> 01:14:27,080
Speaker 1: not to accept the results in his own mind. Again,

1204
01:14:27,880 --> 01:14:29,720
Speaker 1: isn't going to stop people from getting sworn in. It

1205
01:14:29,720 --> 01:14:32,280
Speaker 1: isn't going to stop Democrats if they end up winning

1206
01:14:32,320 --> 01:14:34,400
Speaker 1: control the House in the Senate, from getting control the

1207
01:14:34,400 --> 01:14:38,240
Speaker 1: House in the Senate. But as we know, it's important

1208
01:14:38,280 --> 01:14:41,800
Speaker 1: to him for him to create a fantasy world. You know,

1209
01:14:41,960 --> 01:14:44,479
Speaker 1: this fantasy world that he is, that he won somehow

1210
01:14:44,479 --> 01:14:47,439
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty because he doesn't want to count mail

1211
01:14:47,479 --> 01:14:50,519
Speaker 1: in ballots during a pandemic, and that he you know,

1212
01:14:50,600 --> 01:14:54,000
Speaker 1: so he likes to build these mythologies in order for

1213
01:14:54,080 --> 01:14:57,439
Speaker 1: him to Maybe it's a self soothing mechanism. Maybe this

1214
01:14:57,520 --> 01:14:59,800
Speaker 1: is what he does instead of therapy. I don't know

1215
01:15:00,280 --> 01:15:03,040
Speaker 1: what goes inside his head, but he can never He

1216
01:15:03,160 --> 01:15:05,840
Speaker 1: is so obsessed with this idea never admit defeat and

1217
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:08,960
Speaker 1: never admit you've lost, and never admit you've made a mistake,

1218
01:15:09,000 --> 01:15:14,120
Speaker 1: and never apologize, all of that sort of dumb advice

1219
01:15:14,240 --> 01:15:16,800
Speaker 1: that salespeople used to get back in the fifties. Right,

1220
01:15:16,840 --> 01:15:18,320
Speaker 1: These are like, you know, never take no for an

1221
01:15:18,320 --> 01:15:24,000
Speaker 1: answer type of mindset. And that's fine if you're trying

1222
01:15:24,000 --> 01:15:29,479
Speaker 1: to sell property. It becomes gas lighting when you're trying

1223
01:15:29,520 --> 01:15:35,960
Speaker 1: to sell it politically on this front. Now, as for

1224
01:15:36,040 --> 01:15:40,960
Speaker 1: your specific question about the Democrats, here's this look. I

1225
01:15:41,040 --> 01:15:44,360
Speaker 1: just think this re redistricting decision by the Democrats fight

1226
01:15:44,400 --> 01:15:46,720
Speaker 1: fire with fire. It's going to help them in the

1227
01:15:46,720 --> 01:15:48,760
Speaker 1: short term, but I don't think they ever would have

1228
01:15:48,840 --> 01:15:51,040
Speaker 1: needed it. They could have kept their high ground and

1229
01:15:51,040 --> 01:15:53,439
Speaker 1: probably still won't control of the House. They could have

1230
01:15:53,520 --> 01:15:56,680
Speaker 1: kept their high ground and probably still watched Texas do

1231
01:15:56,760 --> 01:16:00,599
Speaker 1: a dummy mander. But now Democrats have given up whatever

1232
01:16:00,680 --> 01:16:03,360
Speaker 1: reform credentials they had been developing over the last fifteen

1233
01:16:03,439 --> 01:16:06,440
Speaker 1: years by being the party in favor of quote fair districts.

1234
01:16:06,760 --> 01:16:08,559
Speaker 1: They're no longer a party that's in favor of this.

1235
01:16:09,160 --> 01:16:11,840
Speaker 1: And I don't accept the premise of what when you

1236
01:16:11,920 --> 01:16:14,519
Speaker 1: have to suspend a constitutional rule in order to do

1237
01:16:15,200 --> 01:16:18,400
Speaker 1: that is a slippery slope. And that's the issue I

1238
01:16:18,400 --> 01:16:19,920
Speaker 1: have with this. It's a slippery slope. But let me

1239
01:16:19,960 --> 01:16:27,040
Speaker 1: make another point. Fair districts means you have the opera.

1240
01:16:27,120 --> 01:16:32,320
Speaker 1: You will see a different type of person elected. Maybe

1241
01:16:32,360 --> 01:16:37,040
Speaker 1: someone who's center right might win in a closely contested

1242
01:16:37,120 --> 01:16:40,840
Speaker 1: Republican leaning seat, and maybe that member of Congress is

1243
01:16:40,840 --> 01:16:43,600
Speaker 1: a Don Bacon type and stands up to the Republican

1244
01:16:43,600 --> 01:16:47,840
Speaker 1: Party in a moment that it's necessary to have bipartisan pushback.

1245
01:16:49,680 --> 01:16:52,559
Speaker 1: And now what you're going to do is you're going

1246
01:16:52,600 --> 01:16:55,240
Speaker 1: to create a situation where the only Republicans that get

1247
01:16:55,240 --> 01:17:00,000
Speaker 1: elected in Virginia are going to be somebody who's pretty

1248
01:17:00,040 --> 01:17:04,559
Speaker 1: out of the mainstream. And you know, I fear what

1249
01:17:04,560 --> 01:17:07,160
Speaker 1: we're happening here is across the board, we're going to

1250
01:17:07,200 --> 01:17:12,719
Speaker 1: get fewer sort of incrementalists, you know, the pragmatists in Congress,

1251
01:17:12,760 --> 01:17:16,519
Speaker 1: and more ideologues. So I don't think it's I mean,

1252
01:17:16,560 --> 01:17:18,640
Speaker 1: the whole point of fair districts is to try to

1253
01:17:20,240 --> 01:17:24,200
Speaker 1: have districts that are more representative of the larger pragmatic

1254
01:17:24,280 --> 01:17:31,439
Speaker 1: majority that is in America. And so I can't I

1255
01:17:31,560 --> 01:17:38,479
Speaker 1: understand the reaction. I understand, and if you're a hardcore partisan,

1256
01:17:38,520 --> 01:17:40,680
Speaker 1: then yes, this feels like the right thing to do.

1257
01:17:42,640 --> 01:17:45,439
Speaker 1: But this feels like the law of undertended consequences is

1258
01:17:45,479 --> 01:17:47,400
Speaker 1: going to bite the party in the ass here on this,

1259
01:17:48,840 --> 01:17:51,400
Speaker 1: and I think they are going to regret losing the

1260
01:17:51,479 --> 01:17:54,720
Speaker 1: high ground on the reform issue. This is why I

1261
01:17:54,760 --> 01:17:58,559
Speaker 1: think I think very highly of these independent candidacies in

1262
01:17:58,640 --> 01:18:03,200
Speaker 1: Nebraska and Montana, the new one in California with Kevin Kyleie,

1263
01:18:03,640 --> 01:18:07,960
Speaker 1: a former Republican congressman, dropping the party label. I just

1264
01:18:08,760 --> 01:18:12,120
Speaker 1: I think all you're doing is giving more credibility to

1265
01:18:12,200 --> 01:18:16,920
Speaker 1: those that rip on both parties. Democrats had higher ground

1266
01:18:17,000 --> 01:18:21,240
Speaker 1: on the reform issue when it came to elections. Doing

1267
01:18:21,320 --> 01:18:25,280
Speaker 1: all of this fighting fire with fire just partisanizes it all.

1268
01:18:26,240 --> 01:18:29,160
Speaker 1: And I think you know this idea that, oh, it's

1269
01:18:29,200 --> 01:18:32,560
Speaker 1: temporary and we'll come back and do it. Well, politicians

1270
01:18:32,600 --> 01:18:35,400
Speaker 1: don't have the trust of the public. And how often

1271
01:18:35,400 --> 01:18:37,160
Speaker 1: do they come back and do something. I'm not saying

1272
01:18:37,160 --> 01:18:40,760
Speaker 1: they won't. I'm no, you know, but I have to

1273
01:18:40,800 --> 01:18:46,760
Speaker 1: tell you recent history tells me that once parties see

1274
01:18:46,800 --> 01:18:50,280
Speaker 1: no penalty for giving up something, they're not going to

1275
01:18:50,400 --> 01:18:57,400
Speaker 1: somehow voluntarily. Right. Do we really think Virginia Democrats, if

1276
01:18:57,439 --> 01:18:59,720
Speaker 1: they have a nine to two or ten to one advantage,

1277
01:19:00,080 --> 01:19:03,880
Speaker 1: are going to want to voluntarily give back that advantage.

1278
01:19:06,520 --> 01:19:11,639
Speaker 1: Prove me wrong. I hope to be proven wrong. I'll

1279
01:19:11,640 --> 01:19:15,080
Speaker 1: eat whatever crow a Democrat wants to feed me on this.

1280
01:19:16,200 --> 01:19:19,599
Speaker 1: But I think that I just I don't. I think

1281
01:19:19,600 --> 01:19:22,120
Speaker 1: this is a huge mistake, and I think this is

1282
01:19:22,120 --> 01:19:26,799
Speaker 1: why there's so much energy with more and more voters

1283
01:19:26,840 --> 01:19:31,120
Speaker 1: looking for an alternative to both parties these days, and

1284
01:19:31,160 --> 01:19:34,160
Speaker 1: in this case, this is Democrats help accelerate. Donald Trump

1285
01:19:34,240 --> 01:19:38,880
Speaker 1: has been an accelerant on the right, fighting this fighting

1286
01:19:38,920 --> 01:19:42,920
Speaker 1: fire with fire business might end up being an unintended

1287
01:19:42,960 --> 01:19:48,200
Speaker 1: consequence accelerant of this movement of center left voters as well.

1288
01:19:49,040 --> 01:19:52,960
Speaker 1: All right with that, but I'd love to I'm still

1289
01:19:53,000 --> 01:19:55,760
Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I'm closing being shell shocked by the

1290
01:19:55,800 --> 01:20:02,240
Speaker 1: Bam out of Bio eighty three point. Of all all

1291
01:20:02,400 --> 01:20:06,800
Speaker 1: the NBA players, where would Bam out of Bio have

1292
01:20:06,920 --> 01:20:11,880
Speaker 1: been on your list of NBA players most likely to

1293
01:20:12,040 --> 01:20:15,640
Speaker 1: score more points in a game than Kobe Bryants eighty one.

1294
01:20:15,760 --> 01:20:16,920
Speaker 1: I don't know if we're ever going to get to

1295
01:20:16,920 --> 01:20:20,680
Speaker 1: the damn Wilt Chamberlain one hundred moment, but tell me

1296
01:20:20,800 --> 01:20:23,559
Speaker 1: there is no chance shoot Even on the Heat, Tyler

1297
01:20:23,600 --> 01:20:26,960
Speaker 1: Hero would probably be considered more likely to get to

1298
01:20:27,040 --> 01:20:29,960
Speaker 1: top eighty one points then Bam out of Baio, who,

1299
01:20:30,040 --> 01:20:31,840
Speaker 1: by the way, got seven three pointers according to the

1300
01:20:31,840 --> 01:20:35,679
Speaker 1: box score, but he sort of did it the Wilt

1301
01:20:35,720 --> 01:20:38,960
Speaker 1: Chamberlain way, right. Sure, twenty one of his eighty three

1302
01:20:39,040 --> 01:20:45,719
Speaker 1: came from the three point line, but sixty two sixty

1303
01:20:45,800 --> 01:20:52,720
Speaker 1: two came from two points. Now, imagine Bam out of

1304
01:20:52,760 --> 01:20:56,040
Speaker 1: Bio next to Giannis. Sorry, you know, the Heat is

1305
01:20:56,080 --> 01:20:58,320
Speaker 1: a team that I you know, I jump on the

1306
01:20:58,320 --> 01:21:01,720
Speaker 1: Heat's bandwagon when they're good as a as a Miami native,

1307
01:21:01,760 --> 01:21:04,160
Speaker 1: even though they really they really weren't much of a

1308
01:21:04,200 --> 01:21:07,559
Speaker 1: franchise when I you know, they'd only been born about

1309
01:21:07,560 --> 01:21:10,400
Speaker 1: a year before I graduated high school, or two years

1310
01:21:10,439 --> 01:21:13,840
Speaker 1: before I graduated. But you know, I want the Heat

1311
01:21:13,880 --> 01:21:20,680
Speaker 1: to succeed. I love Spoe, so anyway, I'm happy for Bam,

1312
01:21:20,720 --> 01:21:23,720
Speaker 1: the sneaky Heat man. They can be. They're going to

1313
01:21:23,760 --> 01:21:28,120
Speaker 1: be a joyous pain in the ass to the rest

1314
01:21:28,160 --> 01:21:30,720
Speaker 1: of the Eavestring Conference in the playoffs, and that's when

1315
01:21:30,720 --> 01:21:33,040
Speaker 1: I enjoy rooting for the Heat the most. All right

1316
01:21:33,080 --> 01:21:35,519
Speaker 1: with that, I'll see in twenty four hours. Thanks for listening.