1 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: Live from our nation's Caleita. This budget thing is going 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:05,680 Speaker 1: to do nothing Space Force. I still think it's interesting. 3 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:09,040 Speaker 1: President Trump not playing his cards yet. Headlines Policy and 4 00:00:09,200 --> 00:00:15,120 Speaker 1: politics colliding Floomberg Sound On, the insiders, the influencers, the insides. 5 00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:17,479 Speaker 1: I would rather see a congressional solution. It's part of 6 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,640 Speaker 1: my DNA. The Senate map in looks a lot different 7 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: than it looked in. President Trump was sent here to 8 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 1: smash conventional norms in a sense Bernie Sanders has already 9 00:00:26,560 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 1: w This is Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Surley on 10 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: Bloomberg one oh five point seven m h D two. 11 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:40,599 Speaker 1: Coronavirus lawmakers are looking at it to see what they 12 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: need to do to coordinate with regulators. I'm going to 13 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:46,240 Speaker 1: bring you an exclusive interview I did with Senator Mark Warner, 14 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: Democrat from Virginia, and market reaction from the coronavirus SMP 15 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,840 Speaker 1: five hundred sinks more than three percent, volatile swing folks 16 00:00:55,920 --> 00:00:59,040 Speaker 1: up and down, up and down. Larry Cutler is still 17 00:00:59,040 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: an optimist. I'll talk about that. John Sibillites is here, 18 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: geo political strategist at Trilogy Advisors and diplomacy consultant to 19 00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:09,880 Speaker 1: the State Department, speaking of which, I was over at 20 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: State this morning catching up with Morgan Ortegas, the top 21 00:01:14,080 --> 00:01:17,320 Speaker 1: political communications advisor to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. We 22 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 1: talked about the Taliban and the peace deal, as well 23 00:01:21,520 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 1: as the coronavirus. Everyone's talking about what is Washington going 24 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: to do with the coronavirus. So I'll bring you that interview. 25 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 1: And Robert Shapiro's here, chairman of Sonic Con and senior 26 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: economic advisor for Democratic presidential candidates, including former Presidents Bill 27 00:01:37,080 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: Clinton and Barack Obama. He's got a great piece out, 28 00:01:40,680 --> 00:01:45,440 Speaker 1: a thought piece on the economy, regulations, and the coronavirus. 29 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: So will dip into that. I was so caught up, 30 00:01:48,680 --> 00:01:51,880 Speaker 1: so caught up in the coronavirus. Senator Elizabeth Warren dropped 31 00:01:51,920 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: out today. Elizabeth Warren out of the race, has not 32 00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:59,840 Speaker 1: endorsed Robert Shapiro's here, John Subdillites hasn't endorsed Robert Shapiro. 33 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 1: I think she's waiting for the right moment. So you 34 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 1: think she's trying to increase her leverage. Absolutely. I also 35 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,960 Speaker 1: think she's uncertain who she's going to endorse. All right, Well, 36 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: let's actually listen to her just for a second. She 37 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: says she has no regrets here Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat 38 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 1: from Massachusetts dropping out of the presidential race. She was 39 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: back in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Here she is, I have no 40 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:27,839 Speaker 1: regrets at all. This has been in honor of a lifetime. Well, 41 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,679 Speaker 1: she's back, she's back in the Senate. We'll see who 42 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 1: she endorses. And uh, then there were two. Let's dive 43 00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: into that coming up. But we have to start, of course, 44 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: with the major story of the day, John Celiti's US 45 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:44,200 Speaker 1: stocks tumble, bond surge on virus fears. US stocks tumbled 46 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: as volatility sparked by the thread of the coronavirus woes 47 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: continued to grip financial markets. Treasury yields sank to record lows, 48 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:54,239 Speaker 1: and have An assets surged. The SMP five hundred film 49 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: more than three, erasing the majority of Wednesday. Steve gaines, 50 00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:00,480 Speaker 1: these are wild swings. I'm reading their course from the 51 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:05,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal. So the markets are saying, we don't know 52 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: what's going on, folks, even as lawmakers have advanced as 53 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,200 Speaker 1: nearly eight billion, about eight billion dollars worth of help 54 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:19,200 Speaker 1: for this. But the markets are still very anxious, John, 55 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:27,320 Speaker 1: The markets are gripped by emotional terror, emotional coronavirus hysteria. 56 00:03:28,280 --> 00:03:30,799 Speaker 1: And you know, I'm not the first one to talk, 57 00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 1: Kevin about the fact that every year tens of thousands 58 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:39,080 Speaker 1: of Americans die of influenza. Right, thirty forty fifty thousand 59 00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: people die every single winter season in the United States. 60 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: But we don't have the media breathlessly reporting every single 61 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:49,960 Speaker 1: new flu infection or flu death. It's not just us, 62 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,800 Speaker 1: It's not just us, John. Senator Marco Rubio, Republican, Florida. 63 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: He said today that lawmakers up on Capitol Hill are 64 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 1: bracing for there to be coronavirus and con us the 65 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 1: State's Department. I was there today. We'll play from Morgan 66 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 1: coming up. But Secretary of State Mike Pompello at a 67 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 1: press conference today going through all of the different avenues 68 00:04:10,600 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: that folks are taking. But I hear you maybe people 69 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 1: are a little bit too aggressive with the pure l Well, 70 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: there's a couple of things that I would say, Kevin. 71 00:04:17,880 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 1: One first of all, is we've given this a name, 72 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:22,160 Speaker 1: so now we've kind of put it in its own box. Right, 73 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 1: It's not just like the common cold or the flu. 74 00:04:25,000 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: This is something special and something new, but it's also 75 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: very mysterious. We know so little about this virus. We 76 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: still don't know where it came from. It turns out 77 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 1: the wet market was a lie. This could be from 78 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:40,320 Speaker 1: a bio lab in Wuhan. We just have no idea, 79 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: and we don't know what the rate of infection is. 80 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,080 Speaker 1: We don't know what the death rate is. It's one 81 00:04:45,160 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: percent in this population, it's three percent in this population. 82 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:51,159 Speaker 1: So I think that because there's so much unknown about this, 83 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:55,280 Speaker 1: it makes it even more terrifying too many people. There 84 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:59,360 Speaker 1: is a lot of uncertainty Kevin, but the market also 85 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: no certain things. Here are some of the things it knows. 86 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: If this virus is as transmittable as normal flu, we're 87 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:17,000 Speaker 1: talking about forty million people getting it. Forty million people 88 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:20,560 Speaker 1: on average got the flu over the last two seasons 89 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: per year. If it has a two percent mortality rate, 90 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:30,279 Speaker 1: that's eight hundred thousand deaths. Not if it has a 91 00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:34,359 Speaker 1: three point four percent, it's well over a million. Now 92 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 1: I'm not saying it's going to happen, because we certainly. 93 00:05:36,839 --> 00:05:40,279 Speaker 1: The main thing is we do not know whether it's 94 00:05:40,279 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: as infectious and contagious as the regular flu that is unknown. 95 00:05:45,560 --> 00:05:50,080 Speaker 1: What we do know is from a lot of economic 96 00:05:50,160 --> 00:05:54,680 Speaker 1: research and from war games that were conducted. I was 97 00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,479 Speaker 1: actually part of them in two thousand and six, which 98 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 1: was around the Avian that pandemics. If you write about 99 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,039 Speaker 1: I want to plug before we dive into this, you 100 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,159 Speaker 1: you have an essay in Washington Monthly that dives into 101 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:12,640 Speaker 1: the similarities and and I'm so I want to plug 102 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: that and go ahead about the Avian flu. But you 103 00:06:14,839 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: talk about the National Science Foundation, the World Bank, and 104 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: other global organizations coming together to discuss the threat of 105 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:26,640 Speaker 1: the Avian flu. And now I think that the point 106 00:06:26,680 --> 00:06:30,280 Speaker 1: you lay out in this is that there doesn't appear 107 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 1: to be a cohesive respect there's mixed messages, not just 108 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,119 Speaker 1: from from politicians here in d C, but from around 109 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:39,719 Speaker 1: the world. There's been mixed messages. And that's that's not 110 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:43,440 Speaker 1: even uniquely a Trump thing. Different countries are saying different things. 111 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,719 Speaker 1: And and we should keep in mind that the Avian 112 00:06:46,800 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: flu scare turned out to be nothing. Right. We know 113 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: this is not nothing because it has already spread much 114 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,760 Speaker 1: more than the Avian flu, but we don't know how 115 00:06:56,839 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 1: serious it would be. From from you ahead, just similar 116 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,560 Speaker 1: lee on the swine flu in two thousand nine. I 117 00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: believe sixty million Americans were infected or sixty million people 118 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: and twelve thousand died. So again, we don't know. There's 119 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: so much to be had, he has so much to 120 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 1: be learned, But we just need to keep this in perspective. 121 00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 1: And I think that's what we're losing sometimes, you know. 122 00:07:18,400 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: I think it's fascinating in terms of where the politics 123 00:07:21,960 --> 00:07:24,040 Speaker 1: of this is headed because the question and we'll hear 124 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: this coming up. Uh, well, this was on Bloomberg TV 125 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:29,840 Speaker 1: with Senator Warner, a Democrat from Virginia, about whether or 126 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,200 Speaker 1: not in a pandemic in this case we're talking about 127 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:38,000 Speaker 1: the coronavirus, should these vaccines be free? Because if you 128 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: have or should any type of treatment, not even a vaccine, 129 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,200 Speaker 1: should any type of treatment during a pandemic be free? Now, 130 00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:46,360 Speaker 1: you think of that from a national health perspective and 131 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,440 Speaker 1: the immediacy of action that that requires. But then you 132 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 1: have to think of it from a financial perspective. And 133 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: that's what Mark Warner has been having conversations about and 134 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: that's what he told me about him talking with the 135 00:07:56,560 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: financial sectors about how do you allow for regulators to 136 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: talk to the financial institutions to have the liquidity to 137 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:09,600 Speaker 1: be able to provide that type of financial resource, but 138 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: also Robert Shapiro, but also be able to say to 139 00:08:14,040 --> 00:08:16,960 Speaker 1: get some to the regulators, Hey, this is this is okay. 140 00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:20,120 Speaker 1: If I don't know, everyone's working from home and they 141 00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:22,560 Speaker 1: can't pay their bills on time because there's a pandemic. 142 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: So there's a lot of economic impacts that quite frankly, 143 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: we're just beginning to scratch the surface of absolutely. And 144 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 1: one of the things that we learned from those war 145 00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: game simulations around the Avian flu is that the the 146 00:08:37,160 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 1: if you have a real pandemic UM, the greatest economic 147 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: costs don't come from the illness itself. The human costs 148 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,360 Speaker 1: come from the illness, but the greatest economic costs come 149 00:08:49,520 --> 00:08:53,320 Speaker 1: from how we have to respond UM, and that is 150 00:08:54,520 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: um restricting transportation networks, closing boarders, even quarantines people staying home. 151 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:08,040 Speaker 1: What you're what we're describing here are a set of 152 00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: conditions that reduce simultaneously consumption, investment, incomes, and employment and 153 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,079 Speaker 1: the economy shuts. Coming up, we're gonna talk much more 154 00:09:20,080 --> 00:09:21,960 Speaker 1: about all of this, Plus we're gonna zip into foreign 155 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,559 Speaker 1: policy with John as it relates to the Taliban p steal. 156 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:28,160 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin's really, John stays, Robert stays, you're listening to Bloomberg. 157 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg. Sound On with Kevin Sireley on 158 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:40,439 Speaker 1: Bloomberg and one oh five point seven F M H 159 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:44,160 Speaker 1: D two. The establishment candidates got out, some of them 160 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:46,760 Speaker 1: who do judge got out, maybe called the trug got out. 161 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:50,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg got out, and the consolidating them around uh Joe 162 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:57,280 Speaker 1: Biden uh and wolf Street is emptying. It's checkbooks who 163 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:04,440 Speaker 1: fund Joe's Senator Bernie Sanders, the independent senator from Vermont 164 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: who caucuses with the Democrats. Now, then there were two folks. 165 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:11,959 Speaker 1: Warren's out. Elizabeth Barren drops out of the ray. She's 166 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: not in dorsing yet, has not made up her mind. 167 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 1: She said she needs more time. She's like one of 168 00:10:16,240 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: those undecided voters in Iowa ahead of Well, then there 169 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 1: were two Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. I'm Kevin's really, 170 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:26,520 Speaker 1: Chief Washington Correspondent, fro Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio. It's like 171 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:31,079 Speaker 1: a March madness bracket that is just keeps getting windowed down. 172 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 1: And this is this is the big game. Sorry, Tulsa Gabbert, 173 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: I think she's technically still in it. John Cinalitis is here, 174 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: Robert Shapiro is here as well. To all stars. Let's 175 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 1: let's let's dabble into into I'll start with you, Robert. 176 00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 1: Just given that you have advised former presidents Bill Clinton 177 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:52,679 Speaker 1: and Barack Obama, I'm not counting out Bernie Sanders. I 178 00:10:52,720 --> 00:10:56,920 Speaker 1: think that they that they're looking at this as sixteen, 179 00:10:57,120 --> 00:10:59,840 Speaker 1: part two of a contestant convention, and they've they've been 180 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:02,840 Speaker 1: landing for this. Here's the way I think of Kevin. 181 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:09,839 Speaker 1: Was Biden's enormous victory? Was that how much of that 182 00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: was a rejection of Bernie? And how much was it 183 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: Let's take a pause. What do you mean by take 184 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 1: a pause from what a pause before Bernie was on 185 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:25,120 Speaker 1: the verge of getting the nomination? Oh wow, okay, this 186 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 1: is fascinating. I never thought of it this way. You're saying, 187 00:11:27,760 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 1: maybe the voters of Super Tuesday said let's exhale and 188 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: let's see if we could have even more of a debate. 189 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: What do you think it is? This often happens? Incidentally? UM, 190 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:46,440 Speaker 1: I think that Sanders has very deep problems. He has 191 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 1: shown that he has not been able to increase the 192 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 1: participation of young people so far, at least uh he 193 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,599 Speaker 1: has brought in his coalition only in one respect, h 194 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 1: and at is with respect to Latinos. He couldn't broaden 195 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:08,120 Speaker 1: it with respect to African Americans. Moreover, the Democratic coalition 196 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: expanded because it took in white suburbanites who were rejecting Trump, 197 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: and that new expansion of the Democratic electorate went to Biden. John, 198 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,240 Speaker 1: let me ask you this question, because all those points 199 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 1: that the Robert lays out but are are great. But 200 00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 1: from your perspective, is Trump world a little bit uneasy 201 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:33,880 Speaker 1: of having the phace Biden in general? Because candidly, based 202 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 1: upon my reporting, I would tell you that they wanted 203 00:12:36,840 --> 00:12:41,200 Speaker 1: to they wanted to go against Bernie. It's very difficult 204 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,600 Speaker 1: to tell, right, there are different strategies for each of 205 00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: the candidates, and someone like Bernie Sandras does have significant 206 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:50,760 Speaker 1: populist appeal, and there's actually a segment of the Trump 207 00:12:50,840 --> 00:12:55,480 Speaker 1: voter base in that could potentially lean Sandra's, especially if 208 00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:59,000 Speaker 1: we have this coronavirus recession in the second half of 209 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,520 Speaker 1: the year and all of a sudden free stuff and 210 00:13:01,559 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: socialism doesn't sound that bad anymore. But with Biden, I 211 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 1: think there were going to be issues that were becoming 212 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: marginalized as he seemed to go into zombie status before 213 00:13:10,559 --> 00:13:13,200 Speaker 1: South Carolina. That will now come back in a very 214 00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: significant way. His gaffs, I think are going to be 215 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:19,200 Speaker 1: increasingly a problem. We'll be looking at his speech and 216 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 1: his cognition, will also be looking at the corruption charges again. 217 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,520 Speaker 1: And I think very much in the context of coronavirus 218 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,240 Speaker 1: and the larger strategic disengagement of the U S and 219 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:35,079 Speaker 1: Chinese economies, I think Biden's comments about China and blowing 220 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: it off as a danger to the United States security, 221 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 1: wising economically may be very problematic for him once the 222 00:13:41,160 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: Trump ad machine roles. That's a preview, by the way, 223 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 1: if you're listening, this is why Johnson, I mean, both 224 00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:49,959 Speaker 1: of you both have are offering previews. But what john 225 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 1: just said about Biden world in China as a preview, 226 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:58,400 Speaker 1: go ahead. Uh. The only time Americans have re elected 227 00:13:58,440 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: a president during a recession and was FDR six. But 228 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:05,560 Speaker 1: there's a difference between a pandemic recession and a recession, 229 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: you know what I mean? No, right, because you could 230 00:14:07,000 --> 00:14:09,560 Speaker 1: consider that I'm not I'm not saying it, but they're 231 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:11,960 Speaker 1: going to spin it as this is a natural disaster, 232 00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,520 Speaker 1: and the way the Biden or the Sanders campaign will 233 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: spin it as this is a president who cut funding 234 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:21,880 Speaker 1: for n I h to cut funding for the CDC, 235 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 1: who cut funding for w h O, who eliminated the 236 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 1: pandemic task forards. I'm not convinced we're going to have 237 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 1: a recession. I'm still not convinced neither mind, but I 238 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: think there is a much higher likelihood today that. But 239 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:39,200 Speaker 1: if if the coronavirus dies out by the spring, I 240 00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:42,480 Speaker 1: mean that recession in job's day tomorrow. I'll be at 241 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:46,520 Speaker 1: the Labor Department preview tomorrow tomorrow morning. They have to say, 242 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 1: I'll tell you what I think has been happening. And 243 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: we keep talking about Trump, and of course he's the 244 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 1: standard bearer, he's the candidate, he's the incumbent. But I'm 245 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: watching bread Parscale very closely. This man is brilliant, and 246 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: I think they've talk about data, They've had strategies ready 247 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:05,160 Speaker 1: for every candidate. So I think you know, they may 248 00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 1: be going through a little bit of an adjustment right now. 249 00:15:07,080 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 1: To your point, I don't know that the contest is 250 00:15:09,480 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 1: settled yet, and before it's settled, there's going to be 251 00:15:12,520 --> 00:15:16,640 Speaker 1: a major battle between the moderate, centrist, more traditional wing 252 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,720 Speaker 1: of the Democratic Party which has pulled left. If you 253 00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: look at Biden's positions today, he's probably the most progressive 254 00:15:23,680 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: leading candidate potentially in Democratic history. And they still have 255 00:15:28,160 --> 00:15:31,160 Speaker 1: to resolve this dispute inside the Democratic Party as to 256 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:34,080 Speaker 1: what the issues going into November going to baby. I 257 00:15:34,120 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 1: hear that, but I've been flipping it on on on 258 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 1: that point. I think Senator Sanders or do you think 259 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 1: it doesn't Robert Shapiro, do you think that Senator Sanders 260 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,880 Speaker 1: might have miscalculated and trying to broaden the appeal ahead 261 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 1: of Super Tuesday? Because my reporting indicated that he wanted 262 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 1: to he wanted to show his broader appeal post Super Tuesday, 263 00:15:55,800 --> 00:16:00,840 Speaker 1: but he got whacked bubbled on Super Tuesday Day And 264 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:04,560 Speaker 1: did that Was that a miscalculation to start late for 265 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:10,240 Speaker 1: that messaging? Well, I think I think the whole strategy miscalculated. Frankly, 266 00:16:11,320 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: I think he counted on votes he didn't get. I 267 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:19,360 Speaker 1: think he emphasized a series of issues which got the 268 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,680 Speaker 1: crowds at his rallies going just like Trump gets his 269 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: crowds going, but in fact we're not appealing to the 270 00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:30,080 Speaker 1: majority of Democrats. The biggest problem I think for Sandra 271 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 1: strategically is that he counted on a base of voters 272 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:36,880 Speaker 1: who don't vote. Young people are the least likely to 273 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:40,000 Speaker 1: vote if any demographics. So it's great at the rallies, 274 00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,400 Speaker 1: it's great at a number of events, but it's actually 275 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: time to vote, they don't show up. And the older 276 00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:49,840 Speaker 1: Democrats all went for Biden. Well, interestingly they did show 277 00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:53,800 Speaker 1: up in yes, but not but not in a primaria. 278 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: And we saw in Iowa and Iowa Sanders only had 279 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 1: half turn out, the only half the voters in Ioway 280 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,399 Speaker 1: in this cycle that he did in. That was a 281 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,520 Speaker 1: signal and we missed it. No. Yeah, you know when 282 00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:11,639 Speaker 1: Cardi b and Ariana Grande are coming out to endorse you, 283 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders, Hey, TikTok? What do they? What do they? 284 00:17:15,520 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: They're out at it? What are the kids do these days? 285 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,119 Speaker 1: What is the TikTok thing? To snapchat? And all of 286 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 1: the I don't even know. It's not a vote. You 287 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:24,920 Speaker 1: gotta go to the poll, you gotta go to the car. 288 00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Sereli and you're listening to Bloomberg. This is 289 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Sound On with Kevin Surrelane on Bloomberg N one 290 00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 1: and one oh five point seven m h D two. 291 00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Sereli, Chief Washington correspondent from Bloomberg TV and 292 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:49,000 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. I planted my my flower not flowers, the 293 00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 1: seeds in my flower box on my patio a couple 294 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,240 Speaker 1: of days ago. So we'll see if I can grow anything. 295 00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:57,120 Speaker 1: I've never been able to do it. But you know, 296 00:17:57,400 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: my thumbs aren't green. Maybe this year they turned green 297 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 1: because I have coronavirus openly not I don't have it. 298 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 1: I'm not kidding. I am kidding, and I'm just gonna 299 00:18:06,440 --> 00:18:10,720 Speaker 1: stop talking. Robert schapierres here, Johnson Alins is here anyway. 300 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 1: I stink at growing things, do you guys? Oh? I 301 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 1: have And so okay, what about you, John, Basil and 302 00:18:19,160 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: oreganel I can I can grow Basil. I that I 303 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 1: that I grew last year, and I put it in 304 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 1: my my marin era and and the crock pot, and 305 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:28,919 Speaker 1: I did the whole thing. So I just ingredients for 306 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 1: a good meal. Yeah, exactly, exactly, all right. I want 307 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: to come back to the coronavirus. Everybody's talking about the 308 00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:40,080 Speaker 1: corona virus. And actually I caught up a Senator Mark Warner, UH, 309 00:18:40,200 --> 00:18:43,280 Speaker 1: Democrat from Virginia earlier today for an interview with Bloomberg Television. 310 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:45,800 Speaker 1: But after the interview, I had this conversation with him 311 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:48,800 Speaker 1: because it's it's I believe something you're going to be 312 00:18:48,840 --> 00:18:52,600 Speaker 1: hearing a lot about, and that is how how do 313 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: you just just looking at the financial aspect of the 314 00:18:55,640 --> 00:19:01,440 Speaker 1: coronavirus and assuming that there might be a situation where 315 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 1: people are home and they're not able to maybe pay 316 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: their bills or they're not maybe able to you know, 317 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: pay on time, how do you credit rating agencies and 318 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: the like and other financial institutions, how do they prepare 319 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: for that? And how does Congress have to step in 320 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 1: to have coordination between the regulators as well as the 321 00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:27,280 Speaker 1: financial institutions and is their precedent for that? So anyway, 322 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 1: Senator work told me he was meeting with some financial 323 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 1: institution folks earlier this week. And I want to play 324 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:37,240 Speaker 1: for you this this Hallway interview that we did that 325 00:19:37,359 --> 00:19:40,199 Speaker 1: we did up on Capitol Hill earlier today. Here it 326 00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,880 Speaker 1: is at this point, I'm not sure the Congress needs 327 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,600 Speaker 1: to act, but we do what the banks need. If 328 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:49,000 Speaker 1: they were going to do a little forbearance on credit 329 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:53,520 Speaker 1: card debt or on other payments, they may need some 330 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 1: in a sense ability to work with the regulators so 331 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: that people look like they're becoming more there's sense credit 332 00:20:01,320 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: risky because of the virus. The banks aren't treated badly 333 00:20:05,920 --> 00:20:08,720 Speaker 1: for treating them fair means, and that comes from the regulators. 334 00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 1: That comes more from the regulators. That's that's you know, 335 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:14,360 Speaker 1: they're under the safety and soundness requirements. You don't want 336 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 1: banks having too many customers that are you know, higher 337 00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,880 Speaker 1: credit risk. But if somebody, you know, if a business 338 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,480 Speaker 1: is not needing its payable because nobody's showing up because 339 00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 1: the streets are deserted, or someone can't make their their 340 00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: credit card payment because the business doesn't provide them, um, 341 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 1: you know, pay for the weeks, they may be guarantined. 342 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:40,680 Speaker 1: You know, I've urged the banks do the right thing. 343 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: Let's let's treat these people fairly. But to have that ability, 344 00:20:44,080 --> 00:20:48,000 Speaker 1: they may need some you know kind of nod from 345 00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,680 Speaker 1: the regulators. And that's what I'm hoping to help provide them. 346 00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:54,320 Speaker 1: I mean, the data Robert Shapiro as someone who has 347 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: advised presidents on economic issues. The data could be inherently 348 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:02,280 Speaker 1: flawed if so many people are staying home. Uh well, 349 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,080 Speaker 1: I think the data will be subject to a lot 350 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:11,520 Speaker 1: of interpretation the board distortions there are in the way 351 00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:17,960 Speaker 1: companies operate and the way people work. But um Mark 352 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: Warner makes a very interesting point, and this as opposed 353 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 1: to the cut and interest rates, is something useful the 354 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:29,320 Speaker 1: FED could do for this, and that is to issue 355 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:33,920 Speaker 1: guidance to the banks who they regulate. Um on that 356 00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,640 Speaker 1: kind of forbearance. One of the things that I find 357 00:21:37,680 --> 00:21:41,040 Speaker 1: most astonishing about the situation is that, as we discussed 358 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,000 Speaker 1: at the beginning of this conversation, we have had a 359 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:47,040 Speaker 1: number of other pandemics over the last twenty years. Why 360 00:21:47,040 --> 00:21:51,440 Speaker 1: are we not ready with contingency plans for yet another pandemic? 361 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 1: And why are we creating formulas to try to address 362 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,399 Speaker 1: issues A, B and C as if it's out of 363 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,600 Speaker 1: the blue and we haven't had an opportunity to be prepared. 364 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 1: Where is hh S and C, d C and all 365 00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,120 Speaker 1: of these agencies, And why aren't they going back into 366 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:08,400 Speaker 1: their files to say, Okay, what was our contingency plan 367 00:22:08,760 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 1: ten years ago? In fifteen and twenty years ago. Pete, 368 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:16,320 Speaker 1: that's the most terrifying part of all of this. And again, 369 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 1: whether you're not, I mean that's I what do you think, Robert? 370 00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: Why don't we have those plans in UH? In two 371 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,320 Speaker 1: thousand five and two thousand six, going back to that 372 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:31,520 Speaker 1: Avian flu incident, UH, the Push administration came in for 373 00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:35,880 Speaker 1: withering criticism for not being prepared, and the Bush administration 374 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:40,199 Speaker 1: had turned around and got prepared and beefed up the 375 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 1: funding for an i AH for c d C. UH 376 00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 1: had specific agencies established for pandemics. The Obama administration further 377 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:58,000 Speaker 1: increase that, further beefed it up, established a Pandemic Task 378 00:22:58,080 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: Force inside the White House. This administration has cut c 379 00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: d C and an i H every year. I don't 380 00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 1: want to and I always interject here on this program 381 00:23:10,440 --> 00:23:13,560 Speaker 1: because I don't want to do the the funding cut 382 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:15,639 Speaker 1: left right. I don't want to have that conversation. I 383 00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,919 Speaker 1: want to have the conversation about can we trust China? 384 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:21,040 Speaker 1: I mean no, Okay, you say no, can we trust China? 385 00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 1: So both of you agree on that? And how do 386 00:23:23,440 --> 00:23:26,679 Speaker 1: we as a country we can't trust the Chinese Communist Party? 387 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,679 Speaker 1: The Chinese people are the victims of their party. So 388 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:31,720 Speaker 1: this is the problem in China. I hear you. But 389 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: how do we how does the work global community put 390 00:23:35,680 --> 00:23:41,000 Speaker 1: pressure on General Secretary shi Jing Ping to actually be 391 00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:44,119 Speaker 1: forthcoming with that? And that was a question that I 392 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,920 Speaker 1: asked Morgan Artagas, and we'll play up the Taliban portion 393 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,720 Speaker 1: coming up, UH, And she said that they've been more transparent. 394 00:23:51,280 --> 00:23:53,960 Speaker 1: But if anyone has followed Secretary Pompeio, I mean his 395 00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:59,639 Speaker 1: rhetoric against UH, the Chinese has been incredibly appointed and 396 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:03,159 Speaker 1: ray serious questions about about it. When I asked on 397 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:07,679 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Television UH Senator Warner, he also described as an 398 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: authoritarian regime, and it is. But I mean, how how 399 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:16,280 Speaker 1: do you convince Robert the Chinese to step into the 400 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:22,120 Speaker 1: the Western the other countries and combating a global pandemic? 401 00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: You can over the short term, you know, during Stars UH, 402 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 1: the Chinese government lied consistently about all the all the data, 403 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:36,480 Speaker 1: and foreign direct investors actually punished them. They said, if 404 00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,520 Speaker 1: we can't trust you, and they slowed down investment. And 405 00:24:40,560 --> 00:24:44,040 Speaker 1: then they came back. And but China is strong enough 406 00:24:44,080 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 1: now that UM. Their focus is always on internal stability, 407 00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,879 Speaker 1: not on their relationship with us or anybody. Why is 408 00:24:55,920 --> 00:25:00,119 Speaker 1: it to China's benefit, John to lie about data. The 409 00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,520 Speaker 1: Chinese communist parties number one priority, and I agree with 410 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:07,720 Speaker 1: Robert completely here is to maintain power, right to maintain control. 411 00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,840 Speaker 1: Remember this is the same government that allowed fifty million 412 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:13,879 Speaker 1: Chinese to die, to perish and the famine for the 413 00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:16,800 Speaker 1: sake of progressive ideas back in the nineteen fifties and 414 00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:21,280 Speaker 1: nineteen sixties. Human beings are expendable to the authorities in Beijing, 415 00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:23,920 Speaker 1: so they're going to do whatever they need to maintain 416 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,239 Speaker 1: absolute control in China. They don't care what comes in 417 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,520 Speaker 1: diplomatically from outside of China. But to your point, Robert, 418 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,119 Speaker 1: I think it's a very good one about economic of financial, 419 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,919 Speaker 1: the supply chains. They're moving out, and they're not moving 420 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 1: out to punish China. They're moving out because businesses are 421 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,760 Speaker 1: recognizing that it doesn't make long term sense to be 422 00:25:43,880 --> 00:25:47,159 Speaker 1: so dependent on China and to a government that doesn't 423 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 1: provide honest, clear communications on this type of a crisis. 424 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,080 Speaker 1: I'm going to be completely frank, I don't understand the 425 00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,199 Speaker 1: I would have to ask more questions to try to 426 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,440 Speaker 1: wrap my head around why you would want to about 427 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: data of a pandemic in your country. But I but 428 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:08,399 Speaker 1: if there's economic pressure on a country to say you 429 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,320 Speaker 1: better tell the truth about this, and if not, here's 430 00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:15,760 Speaker 1: some economic impacts. Is there anything that you foresee that businesses, 431 00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:18,200 Speaker 1: not just US based companies but also around the world, 432 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 1: that they'll be doing to pressure the Chinese john to 433 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 1: to get honest. I don't see it. For the most part. 434 00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:28,800 Speaker 1: We're talking about Western trading partners of China. They don't 435 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:32,520 Speaker 1: control the markets, they don't control corporations. The president of 436 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 1: the United States cannot tell industry a, B and C. 437 00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,280 Speaker 1: You cannot do this in China any longer. So we 438 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,040 Speaker 1: have different tools at our disposal. The markets have to 439 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,920 Speaker 1: make these decisions for themselves. And I think the way 440 00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 1: the Chinese government has played this, Remember for six weeks 441 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 1: they knew about this and told nobody outside of Beijing 442 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 1: from early December until mid January. And it's one of 443 00:26:52,760 --> 00:26:56,000 Speaker 1: the reasons why the outbreak has become so egregious, because 444 00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:57,919 Speaker 1: we could have controlled this in the beginning if they 445 00:26:57,960 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 1: had cooperated with the World Health Organization and other international board. 446 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,320 Speaker 1: Do you just yes or nor do you agree with that? All? Right? 447 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:06,760 Speaker 1: So There you have it, folks, I mean they agree 448 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,399 Speaker 1: on that. Download the Bloomberg Sound On podcast on Apple iTunes, 449 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com, or by downloading the Bloomberg Business App. 450 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:13,879 Speaker 1: You can also find us on Radio dot com, I 451 00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:16,160 Speaker 1: Heart Radio and Spotify and Kevin s really more. Next 452 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 1: you're listening to Bloomberg. You're listening to Bloomberg Sound On 453 00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:27,840 Speaker 1: with Kevin Sirele on Bloomberg and one oh five points 454 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 1: seven FM h D two. I'm Kevin Sirelli, Chief Washington 455 00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,400 Speaker 1: correspondent from Bloomberg Television and Bloomberg Radio. We were having 456 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: so much fun in the break I had to cut 457 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,199 Speaker 1: them off in the break. Robert Shapiro, chairman of Sonic 458 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:45,120 Speaker 1: Con and senior economic advisor for Democratic presidential candidates, including 459 00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,200 Speaker 1: former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. Do you think 460 00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:52,879 Speaker 1: Obama endorses in the primary? I think he endorses when 461 00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,280 Speaker 1: it's very clear who's going to be the nominator. Got it? 462 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,959 Speaker 1: Got it? John Stalinis, GEO political strategist at Trilogy Advisors, 463 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,680 Speaker 1: diplomacy consultant to the State Department. John, do you think 464 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:07,760 Speaker 1: Obama endorses in the primary? Didn't he kind of endorse 465 00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:12,160 Speaker 1: with his Pete Bottage Edge and the ability to get 466 00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:15,160 Speaker 1: all of these other candidates to coalesce around Biden so 467 00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:22,119 Speaker 1: quickly between South Carolina and Super Tuesday. Interesting. So okay, 468 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:24,560 Speaker 1: so wow, okay, I just had an aha moment right 469 00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: there that was maybe my mom and played a role 470 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 1: in that. We're speculating. All right, it's time now for 471 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:32,120 Speaker 1: my favorite part of the program. What is the quick 472 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,240 Speaker 1: take on your Radar. I'm going to kick it off 473 00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 1: because I was at the State's Department today reporting on 474 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 1: coronavirus and of course the Taliban peace agreement and the 475 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,680 Speaker 1: Secretary of Pumpeo. From the State's Department's perspective, what they're 476 00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:50,680 Speaker 1: saying is, here's an eighteen year war with Afghanistan that 477 00:28:50,760 --> 00:28:55,200 Speaker 1: was started after nine eleven, and now here we are 478 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,760 Speaker 1: where the brave service members who are serving over there, 479 00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 1: many of them, some of them were born after eleven 480 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 1: and now they're serving over there, and what the what 481 00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:08,680 Speaker 1: the administration is saying that they were able to have 482 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 1: an agreement uh between the Taliban and the Afghanistan government 483 00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:16,720 Speaker 1: and that the crux of this agreement is that the 484 00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:21,040 Speaker 1: Taliban would depart and break ties with al Qaeda, and 485 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:25,200 Speaker 1: so they've gotten all the parties to sit down and 486 00:29:25,240 --> 00:29:28,760 Speaker 1: hash out this agreement. The question now is whether or 487 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,680 Speaker 1: not people are actually following through with this agreement or 488 00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 1: they're going to be able to come together. And so 489 00:29:33,920 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 1: that's part of the interview that I did with Morgan 490 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 1: that aired on Bloomberg Television earlier today. Um, but the 491 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 1: administration is saying the fact that we've gotten to this 492 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 1: particular moment where all the sides talking about doing this 493 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,400 Speaker 1: is a step in the right direction. Here's Morgan Artagas, 494 00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 1: the top UH Press secretary or top communications advisor to 495 00:29:55,880 --> 00:29:58,360 Speaker 1: Secretary Pompeo, speaking to me earlier today. Here she is, 496 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,320 Speaker 1: your question is the central question that was actually at 497 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,080 Speaker 1: the forefront of our policy maker's mind as we were 498 00:30:04,080 --> 00:30:07,160 Speaker 1: negotiating this agreement. That's exactly what we said, and we 499 00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:10,640 Speaker 1: knew that the Taliban had to publicly break with al Qaida. 500 00:30:11,040 --> 00:30:13,840 Speaker 1: It's historic that they signed a document publicly breaking with 501 00:30:13,840 --> 00:30:16,360 Speaker 1: al Qaida and other terrorist organizations. No one has never 502 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 1: been able to get them to do that before in 503 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 1: forty years. So but the public recognition is just the 504 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: first step. Now we need them to follow up on that. 505 00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,720 Speaker 1: Remember that the Taliban is not a nation state armand army. 506 00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:29,320 Speaker 1: It's an insurgency. This isn't the German army in World 507 00:30:29,320 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: War Two. This is an insurgency. And so we're having 508 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:35,240 Speaker 1: to to work with them to make sure that they 509 00:30:35,280 --> 00:30:38,040 Speaker 1: are aware that the reduction of the violence levels have 510 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,840 Speaker 1: to come down. President Trump was very explicit on that, 511 00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,120 Speaker 1: and zal Khalil is I'd followed up with that yesterday. 512 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,280 Speaker 1: And we know that their political leadership is aware. President 513 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 1: Trump wants out of Afghanistan. That's what this is all about, 514 00:30:51,520 --> 00:30:54,240 Speaker 1: and he's fulfilling the campaign promise. But I think also 515 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,239 Speaker 1: has a deeply held beliefs at a war that, as 516 00:30:56,280 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 1: you noted Kevin, eighteen years longer than the revolution Stionary War, 517 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:06,120 Speaker 1: the Civil War, World War One, and World War Two combined. Okay, 518 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,760 Speaker 1: so the scandalous nature of this, you know, post invasion 519 00:31:09,880 --> 00:31:14,720 Speaker 1: occupation of Afghanistan to achieve unachievable goals is coming to 520 00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,360 Speaker 1: an end. I don't know that many people actually believe 521 00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 1: the Taliban are going to adhere to their word that 522 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 1: they were going to cut off ties with al Qaeda 523 00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 1: and other groups. They will probably want our help to 524 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:28,360 Speaker 1: defeat Islamic State, which has set up groups and and 525 00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:32,200 Speaker 1: the like in Afghanistan, But we are now an offshore platform. 526 00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:34,680 Speaker 1: If there's ever any threat to the United States or 527 00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:38,120 Speaker 1: two critical allies and partners in the region, we constrike 528 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,760 Speaker 1: them from an offshore platform. But we don't need to 529 00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:44,000 Speaker 1: have ten, fifteen or twenty thousand troops there. It will 530 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,600 Speaker 1: be a minimum force. We want the parties to see 531 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:48,840 Speaker 1: if they can work at an arrangement. But the future 532 00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,400 Speaker 1: of Afghanistan is not the overriding policy concern of the 533 00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,840 Speaker 1: United States. The removal of our troops and the repositioning 534 00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,040 Speaker 1: for other threats is Robert, do you think it was 535 00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 1: a step in the right direction. Well, I think it 536 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:06,200 Speaker 1: was an inevitable step. What this tells us is that everybody, 537 00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:11,120 Speaker 1: after eighteen years is exhausted, and what the president is 538 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:15,280 Speaker 1: trying to get to who is kind of It reminds 539 00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,880 Speaker 1: me of Di said peace with honor, withdrawal in an 540 00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: honorable way. What happens afterwards is we know beyond our 541 00:32:25,360 --> 00:32:27,960 Speaker 1: control and his control. But you don't want to have 542 00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:32,760 Speaker 1: Russia and China in a vacuum in the Middle East. Well, 543 00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 1: I think Russia has probably learned their lesson in Afghanistan 544 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 1: and um, China has got bigger fish to fry, although 545 00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 1: the Chinese will look to engage in some type of 546 00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:51,239 Speaker 1: contracts to extract valuable mineral resources from Afghanistan. All right, 547 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:53,480 Speaker 1: so that's it's all, my radar, gentlemen, that's the quick 548 00:32:53,520 --> 00:32:55,200 Speaker 1: take for their thanks some morgan to take us over 549 00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,120 Speaker 1: at the state's apartment. Who wants to go next? Well, 550 00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,560 Speaker 1: you know we are talking about this on a break 551 00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:09,160 Speaker 1: um the corona. How how do President Trump and Bernie Sanders, 552 00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:15,680 Speaker 1: whose camp public campaigns are organized around huge rallies people 553 00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,880 Speaker 1: and give it away a paper mind right now, but 554 00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:20,880 Speaker 1: go ahead, go ahead? How do you hold those rallies? 555 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:25,080 Speaker 1: Did the rallies have to be canceled? Central question? Yes, 556 00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:26,960 Speaker 1: and I don't even say what. I kind of laughed 557 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:28,560 Speaker 1: when you said it. I'm gonna be honest. I'm a 558 00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:32,960 Speaker 1: transparent guy. But I when you were saying that, then 559 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:36,040 Speaker 1: I started thinking of the national security implications. You can't 560 00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:39,160 Speaker 1: have thousands of people in a stadium with two of 561 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:42,680 Speaker 1: the but the president of the United States and a pandemic. 562 00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:46,360 Speaker 1: There's a lot of questions. That's all I'm gonna say. 563 00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,920 Speaker 1: This is a virus, which they say is most dangerous 564 00:33:50,960 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 1: to people over seventy we have a seventy four year 565 00:33:53,960 --> 00:33:57,920 Speaker 1: old president at a seventy eight year old Bernie Sanders 566 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:01,680 Speaker 1: had a seventies seven year old Joe Biden. They've got 567 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:06,280 Speaker 1: to avoid what are they gonna do? Tweet? I guess hey, 568 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:09,879 Speaker 1: you know there's where there's there's always an opportunity, right. 569 00:34:09,920 --> 00:34:13,160 Speaker 1: You gotta be an opportunist. You gotta find adversity and 570 00:34:13,200 --> 00:34:16,800 Speaker 1: you gotta look for the opportunity to turn it into 571 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 1: your moment. Okay, that's a great one. The rallies and 572 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,879 Speaker 1: the pandemic on your radar. This that was fascinating. Robert. 573 00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:26,200 Speaker 1: All right, John, what's the quick take? What's your quick take? Geopolitics? 574 00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:28,960 Speaker 1: I can't help it, No, I love it. That's why 575 00:34:29,040 --> 00:34:31,000 Speaker 1: I love having you on is because I always learned 576 00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:33,239 Speaker 1: about these, you know, the global issues, and we can 577 00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:36,080 Speaker 1: nerd out on this show. It's not just the slug 578 00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:41,440 Speaker 1: fest of some of our other repeating our past errors. 579 00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:45,279 Speaker 1: Germany and sent a signal to the Middle East that 580 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,800 Speaker 1: Germany was open to refugees and migrants. A million people 581 00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:54,400 Speaker 1: came in from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, completely upended European 582 00:34:54,440 --> 00:34:56,880 Speaker 1: domestic politics and was probably the number one reason for 583 00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,120 Speaker 1: the Brexit vote. A year later, now we have have 584 00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,879 Speaker 1: a massive refugee Actually they're not refugees, they're migrants, because 585 00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:06,439 Speaker 1: the refugees that are coming out of Syria are still 586 00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 1: bottled up there. You have tens of thousands of migrants 587 00:35:09,880 --> 00:35:14,320 Speaker 1: from South Asia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka sweeping through Turkey 588 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 1: to the battles with Greece and Bulgaria, and the European 589 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 1: Union is still unable to come up with a coherent 590 00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:24,279 Speaker 1: policy because they don't work rolled together when migrants and 591 00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:28,520 Speaker 1: refugees are coming into their respective individual member states. So 592 00:35:28,600 --> 00:35:31,160 Speaker 1: they talk one way in Brussels, but the domestic politics 593 00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:34,000 Speaker 1: and the separate countries makes it difficult for leaders to 594 00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 1: coordinate an EU policy. But this is potentially tens, if 595 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 1: not hundreds of thousands of migrants heading into Europe in 596 00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:44,439 Speaker 1: and what is Europe going to do about it? What? 597 00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:47,200 Speaker 1: What do you I mean? Quickly, it's a mess. It's 598 00:35:47,239 --> 00:35:51,080 Speaker 1: a mess. It's a humanitarian disaster, but it could have 599 00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 1: tremendous political blowback, especially in Eastern Europe. You know what 600 00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:57,120 Speaker 1: Chadds Cid the ladies, you know what Robert Shapiro. First 601 00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:58,759 Speaker 1: of all, thank you both for coming about Jeff Fund 602 00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:01,719 Speaker 1: together on different out sides. Yeah, but you know what 603 00:36:02,200 --> 00:36:03,880 Speaker 1: I was thinking when you were saying that. When I 604 00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,800 Speaker 1: was we were talking about the coronavirus, and I remember 605 00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 1: what my dad told me back in Don'tko a couple 606 00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:14,080 Speaker 1: of months ago, which is turn adversity into opportunity. Turn 607 00:36:14,160 --> 00:36:18,200 Speaker 1: adversity into opportunity. Thanks that. Download The Bloomberg down On 608 00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:20,400 Speaker 1: podcast on Apple iTunes and Bloomberg dot com, or by 609 00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:23,440 Speaker 1: downloading double Bloomberg Business app. You can also find me 610 00:36:23,480 --> 00:36:28,680 Speaker 1: on Radio dot com, I Heart Radio and Spotify. Tomorrow's 611 00:36:28,760 --> 00:36:31,759 Speaker 1: Job's Day. I wonder if the coronavirus will start to 612 00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,479 Speaker 1: trickle into the jobs numbers. Yeah, your name next month. 613 00:36:34,640 --> 00:36:38,600 Speaker 1: Next month. I got them to agree again, so we'll 614 00:36:38,600 --> 00:36:42,600 Speaker 1: have the complete rap out from the job Stay. I'm 615 00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,560 Speaker 1: Kevin Cirilli. Thanks for listening. Thanks to Senator Warner and 616 00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:47,360 Speaker 1: Morgan Uh To Bloomberg