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Speaker 1: All right, here we go throwing.

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Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash.

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Speaker 3: See the most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible, big bank to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kaba you want to fall.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybon.

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Speaker 4: This is your NFL Week eleven betting preview with odds

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Speaker 4: courtesy of bet MGM, the official odds provider of the

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Speaker 4: Action Network Podcast. I am joined, as always by my

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Speaker 4: Action Network colleague, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Ducky Duck.

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Speaker 4: Congratulations on the three and zero six pack last week.

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Speaker 2: How you doing.

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Speaker 1: I gotta find out who Jerome Boger is on and

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Speaker 1: not bet his games anymore. I mean, I'm glad that

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Speaker 1: the Saints got in the back door, but I had

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Speaker 1: to get it ran out here. I mean, roughing the

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Speaker 1: passer is ruining the viewing experience of the NFL. And

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Speaker 1: it's really a simple and just the inconsistencies in a

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Speaker 1: week to week basis that call you can't have a

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Speaker 1: third down pick in the end zone be overturned because

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Speaker 1: a quarterback got pushed. I mean, if it's not rough

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Speaker 1: in the passer in any world. But sometimes they call it,

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Speaker 1: sometimes they don't. It completely flips a game. And I'm

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Speaker 1: glad that the Saints Scott there. But it's such an

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Speaker 1: easy solution, Like I get that the NFL wants to

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Speaker 1: protect its quarterbacks, but there are so many There are

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Speaker 1: so many plays where everyone within reason would say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's clearly not rough in the passer. You can't find

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Speaker 1: anyone in the world that says that's rough in the

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Speaker 1: passer with the announcers, y'all about anybody, even fans of

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Speaker 1: the team that benefited, will say it. All you gotta do.

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Speaker 1: They have these quick reviews. Now, just go up to

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Speaker 1: the booth and say, all right, was it or not?

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Speaker 1: That's it. The college does it now. College wants to

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Speaker 1: protect its players, they have targeting right, throw the targeting flag,

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Speaker 1: they go, they look at it real quick. They come

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Speaker 1: back out and said it's not targeting. Still dressing your safety.

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Speaker 1: But if it's a clear non roughing the passer, which

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Speaker 1: can swing a game, we have to be able to

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Speaker 1: look at these things. And you know they're doing a

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Speaker 1: little better with some of these quicker reviews, like all right,

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Speaker 1: he was out of boundstire. We don't have to go

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Speaker 1: spend two minutes on it do the same thing. You

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Speaker 1: can look at half these places and say, all right,

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Speaker 1: that's clearly not roughing the passer. So it's becoming an epidemic.

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Speaker 1: There are just some every week. It just seems like

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Speaker 1: there are so many soft ones. But I'm glad that

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Speaker 1: the Saints got there. I'm glad that it didn't go

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Speaker 1: to overtime. They didn't get the two because overtime is

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Speaker 1: not treated as well this year. Well maybe we're due

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Speaker 1: for some overtime wins here, but yeah, who cares about

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Speaker 1: last week. Let's move on to week eleven.

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Speaker 2: I was thinking of the exact same things. I'm glad

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Speaker 2: you brought that up.

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Speaker 4: It's like you're clearly trying to protect the referees by saying,

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Speaker 4: all right, certain calls are judgment calls.

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Speaker 2: They can't be reviewed.

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Speaker 4: But it's like you're not protecting the referee because they're

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Speaker 4: getting eaten alive on social media the minute they screw

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Speaker 4: up these calls. Like they're getting eaten alive by both

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Speaker 4: fan bases because the odds are in a game.

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Speaker 2: If you're blowing calls.

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Speaker 4: You're blowing them across the board, so it's like, no

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Speaker 4: one's happy. Players on both sides are yelling at you,

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Speaker 4: both sidelines are yelling at you. Yeah, like, I don't

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Speaker 4: care if if you want to make roughing the pass

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Speaker 4: or a tiki tac foul where like any little contact

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Speaker 4: is a.

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Speaker 2: Penalty, but just make sure you get it right there.

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Speaker 4: Again, like I'm a better obviously, it's just a headache.

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Speaker 4: In the long term, it just creates more variant. Anyone

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Speaker 4: who wins, everyone's going to be have some type of

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Speaker 4: asterisks to kind of throw on it.

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Speaker 1: It's absurd, So it's very bizarre. They also added these

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Speaker 1: subjective tawning calls. I mean, like that tawning call that

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Speaker 1: they on the Bears was outrageous, and it's it's bizarre

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Speaker 1: because the league is now promoting gambling and this is

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Speaker 1: not what you want deciding games, is these tawning calls

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Speaker 1: and then roughing the passer on like shoves. I still

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Speaker 1: haven't seen what one worse than the Browns against Kyler

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Speaker 1: Murray when they shoved them and he didn't even fall down,

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Speaker 1: he just kind of took a couple of steps back.

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Speaker 1: And Yeah, hopefully the league in the offseason they had

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Speaker 1: a rule where you know, they can look at these things.

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Speaker 1: And the good thing is that, at least in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: they do tend to let teams play a little more.

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Speaker 1: So I doubt we'll see as many tawning or bad

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Speaker 1: roughing the passer calls, but it's it's very frustrating during

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Speaker 1: the regular season to watch.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's get into the week of even Slate. We'll

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Speaker 4: start with the Thursday night game. Then we'll get into

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Speaker 4: our Sunday six Pack and all that good stuff before

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Speaker 4: we kick things off.

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Speaker 2: Three quick reminders.

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Speaker 4: First, if you plan a bet on any sport ever,

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Speaker 4: you still haven't downloaded the free award winning Action Network app.

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Speaker 2: What are you doing?

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Speaker 4: It's got betting tools, it lets you shop for the

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Speaker 4: best lines, it's got analysis for me, Stucky, the whole

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Speaker 4: Action Network team, and most importantly, it lets you track

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Speaker 4: every bet that you make. Second, if you need to

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Speaker 4: reference our Sunday six Pack picks anytime, all you gotta

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Speaker 4: do use the Action Apps follow feature follow Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 4: We use that account to track those picks there. They

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Speaker 4: usually post it every Friday. And finally, if anybody out

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Speaker 4: there has been living under a rock and hasn't heard

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Speaker 4: about the Big Bets on Campus podcast with my guys Stucky.

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Speaker 4: Definitely check that out if you bet college football or

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Speaker 4: college basketball. College hoops has tipped off. We got bowl

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Speaker 4: season coming up, so check out Big Bets on Campus

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Speaker 4: for everything that you need to bet on college sports.

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Speaker 4: All right, Stuck, let's get a cracking with Thursday night football.

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Speaker 3: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 4: Let's bet Thursday Night Football. So we got the Patriots

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Speaker 4: fresh off a beat down at the Browns. That was

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Speaker 4: not fun, but at least it wasn't a slept for me.

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Speaker 4: It was over pretty quickly. Now they are going on

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Speaker 4: the road on a short week to play the Atlanta Falcons.

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Speaker 4: The line is six and a half, the total is

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Speaker 4: forty seven and a half. Initially it looked like some

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Speaker 4: sharp action coming in on the Patriots, but I wonder

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Speaker 4: if that was to kind of buy back at Atlanta

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Speaker 4: at plus seven and a half, because now if you

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Speaker 4: look into Action Network app, we're tracking a more sharp

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Speaker 4: action on the Falcons then we were on the Patriots,

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Speaker 4: which we were tracking earlier in the week. So what

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Speaker 4: are your thoughts on this game? Between the Falcons and

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Speaker 4: the Pats.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think that at seven the Falcons are

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Speaker 1: by anything below that it gets a little iffy. I

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Speaker 1: do think that there was some dumming up of this line.

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Speaker 1: And also Cordall Patterson has been extremely important for the Falcons.

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Speaker 1: It was assumed that he was going to be out

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Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks, but he's practicing, he's going

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Speaker 1: to be a game time decision.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I think that he's on the positive side to go,

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Speaker 1: and I didn't think there was a shot he was

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Speaker 1: going to play, which obviously hurts an offense that doesn't

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Speaker 1: have it already, doesn't have Calvin Ridley. But obviously the

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Speaker 1: Pats have been rolling the Falcons have you know, they've

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Speaker 1: shown some signs of life some week, but they're coming

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Speaker 1: off an embarrassing loss last week. You could go, you know,

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Speaker 1: from so many trends here that will support the Falcons

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Speaker 1: in just a by low sell high spot. I mean,

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Speaker 1: the Falcons didn't cover last week by what forty Patriots

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Speaker 1: did They covered by over at five and a half points.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you could go just fading teams that cover

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Speaker 1: by more than four touchdowns of next week in the

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Speaker 1: NFL profitable playing teams that don't cover by over four

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Speaker 1: touchdowns profitably, you have both here. I believe this year,

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Speaker 1: if it seems like, all right, who's good, who's not,

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Speaker 1: it seems like there's more parody than ever in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: I believe that I'm just going based on memory here.

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Speaker 1: I should have written it down. I believe that if

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Speaker 1: you simply played teams that didn't cover the week before

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Speaker 1: against teams that covered this year, you would be forty

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Speaker 1: four and twenty one against the spread sixty eight percent.

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Speaker 1: But regardless, look, the Patriots have been very good. Mac

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Speaker 1: Jones has been very good. But this at seven, you're

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Speaker 1: talking about a Falcons team that, on October thirty. First,

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Speaker 1: you know, a couple of weeks ago, was a field

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Speaker 1: goal favorite over the Panthers. The Panthers, obviously the Patriots

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Speaker 1: have received some a bump over the past few weeks,

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Speaker 1: but this is a Panthers team that was only catching

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Speaker 1: three and a half points at home to New England,

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Speaker 1: and now you're getting, obviously a key number of seven.

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Speaker 1: It gets a little diceier below that, and it stirs

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Speaker 1: a night football, which I look for reasons to avoid.

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Speaker 1: I took some plus seven and it's just simply a

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Speaker 1: bilo cell high spot. I think the number is too high,

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Speaker 1: and you hope that you get good Matt Ryan here,

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Speaker 1: I bet the Falcons, but small nothing crazy here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm staying away.

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Speaker 4: I get your point on the Bible so highs and

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Speaker 4: I think that's that's interesting that you gave that number

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Speaker 4: about teams you know that didn't cover versus teams that did,

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Speaker 4: because I think, you know, we don't like it. That's

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Speaker 4: an oversimplification of what we do here. But I feel like,

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Speaker 4: kind of almost subconsciously, that's kind of what we do

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Speaker 4: a lot of. Like we're always talking about okay, like

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Speaker 4: you know, this team didn't play good last week, but

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Speaker 4: here's why I think probably would play better this week.

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Speaker 2: It's human nature. And the same thing for teams that

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Speaker 2: played well.

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Speaker 1: You get a little older reaction or underreaction in the

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Speaker 1: market as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Like if you picture just a model, like forget

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Speaker 4: even the human element of it, which is very real,

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Speaker 4: but just from a model standpoint, Like if you picture

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Speaker 4: the highs and lows throughout the season, after a team

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Speaker 4: wins by you know, thirty five or loses by forty,

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Speaker 4: like that's gonna be at the widest point of which

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Speaker 4: the discrepancy exists, because a team is not gonna win

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Speaker 4: by thirty five or lose by forty every week, you

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Speaker 4: know if they play though, even if they play that

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Speaker 4: same game over you know, ten thousand times, like, that's

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Speaker 4: not what it would happen. So uh, you just like

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Speaker 4: it makes sense from the numbers perspective, it makes sense

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Speaker 4: from the human perspective. You just got embarrassed, You kind

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Speaker 4: of want to come out strong, or you just feeling

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Speaker 4: yourself you can play well, you want to kind of

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Speaker 4: come back down to earth, and right, there's a huge

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Speaker 4: discrepancy between these two teams now, you know, I was

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Speaker 4: surprised to see New England is up to fifth in

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Speaker 4: overall DVOAH and Atlanta is thirty two. That's that is

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Speaker 4: adjusted for strength to schedule. The thing about New England

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Speaker 4: and maybe I should have took this into account more

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Speaker 4: last week, you know, I had them as a pick

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Speaker 4: them against the Browns, you know, so I like the Browns.

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Speaker 2: That was obviously a bad handicap.

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Speaker 4: But New England is kind of improving, and that's because

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Speaker 4: Mac Jones, I think is improved, and so that's that

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Speaker 4: is something that kind of scares me with looking at

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Speaker 4: their long data and they're already up to fifth. So like,

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Speaker 4: I like this team could be like really good, even

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Speaker 4: better than maybe we think. So an interesting trend to

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Speaker 4: you kind of mentioned teams coming off the blowout first

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Speaker 4: half home underdogs coming off a blowout of twenty to

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Speaker 4: forty points, one hundred and fifty one and four sixty

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Speaker 4: six percent against the spread since two thousand and three

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Speaker 4: according to our Action Labs data. So even if if

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Speaker 4: this is one where maybe it gets away from the

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Speaker 4: Falcons because they are the inferior team, it's Thursday, it's

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Speaker 4: hard to kind of, you know, do that on a

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Speaker 4: short week. You would expect them at least to perhaps

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Speaker 4: keep close in the first half. So there's a few

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Speaker 4: ways you can attack this. I should out say Sharps

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Speaker 4: are looks like Sharps are on the over on this game.

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Speaker 4: We have tracked sharp action on the over with with

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Speaker 4: them not coming back on the under as they did

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Speaker 4: with you know, coming back on the Falcons here, So

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Speaker 4: that that's something interesting.

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Speaker 2: That's about all I got to say about this game.

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Speaker 4: It should be should be a weird game, but we

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Speaker 4: saw what happened last week? You know, everyone assumed that

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Speaker 4: the Ravens were just going to kind of roll to

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Speaker 4: win against the Dolphins. Maybe it wouldn't be easy, but

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Speaker 4: they would get it. And they came out flat and

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Speaker 4: the Dolphins never relented. So I could see that kind

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Speaker 4: of similar script plane out here.

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Speaker 1: All right, that's good.

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Speaker 4: Wrap it for our Thursday night football preview for week eleven.

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Speaker 4: Let's give the people what they want. Let's open the

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Speaker 4: week eleven Sunday six Pack presented by our friends at

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Speaker 4: Athletic Brewing Company Thursday for action. Let's crack open the

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Speaker 4: Sunday six pack. All right, Stuck, you had a good week,

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Speaker 4: you closed the gap thirty five thirty one again, went

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Speaker 4: three and oh last week. So we've had three straight

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Speaker 4: weeks of one of the two of us going three

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Speaker 4: and oh.

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Speaker 1: Let's get a six. Let's get a six.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we need that's what we need.

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Speaker 4: Like I don't think we've ever gone I think we've

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Speaker 4: gone six and o before, but I don't think we've

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Speaker 4: ever gone eight and oh.

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Speaker 2: So that's what we really need. We need to get

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Speaker 2: the expand the total.

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Speaker 4: So but overall, it's been a good year on the

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Speaker 4: Pod I hope you guys are enjoying it and the

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Speaker 4: picks that you're tailing are hitting at you know, a

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Speaker 4: similar rate to the picks that we're given out.

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Speaker 2: Because it has been a very good year.

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Speaker 4: You're at first stuck where you're going for your top

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Speaker 4: pick of the week?

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Speaker 2: Eleven Sunday six back.

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Speaker 1: All right, I'll start things off with my first pick

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Speaker 1: of the Sunday six pack. I'm going to go with

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Speaker 1: the Kansas City Chiefs minus two and a half at

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Speaker 1: home against the Dallas Cowboys. I think this is a

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Speaker 1: great spot to back the Chiefs. By the way, the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs have been absolutely dreadful as a favorite of more

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Speaker 1: than a field goal over the past year plus and

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Speaker 1: now Patrick Mahomes is a favorite of more than a

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Speaker 1: field goal nineteen twenty three and one against the spread

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Speaker 1: for his career. This's a guy who covered all the time.

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Speaker 1: It's only forty five percent if he's a dog or

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Speaker 1: a favorite of a field goal or less. He's ten

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Speaker 1: to two to one against the spread. Saw it last week,

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Speaker 1: We've seen it a couple times over the past two years.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs defense is really bad, so sometimes the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: are going to win by three and you're not going

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Speaker 1: to cover six seven. You see it all the time,

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Speaker 1: teams getting the back door. I just need the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: to win this game. I think they can for a

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Speaker 1: number of reasons. One, I think their offense is finally

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Speaker 1: starting to figure it out. The league adjusted to them now.

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Speaker 1: I think that they're starting to adjust there being a

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Speaker 1: little bit more patient, using a short passing attack, the

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Speaker 1: running game, which both can succeed against the Cowboys bad

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Speaker 1: run dye bad against tight ends to set up the

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Speaker 1: deep shots, and the deep shots should work here. By

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Speaker 1: the way, very aggressive Dallas defense that is due for

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Speaker 1: a lot of turnover regression. They can really exploit an

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Speaker 1: uber aggressive secondary, especially Trayvon Diggs, who, yeah, he has

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Speaker 1: a million picks. Go look how he's grading out and coverage.

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Speaker 1: He's bottom, he's outside the top one hundred per PFF

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Speaker 1: and quarterback right, so he's susceptible to double moves. And

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Speaker 1: I think that they can really exploit that by first

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Speaker 1: setting up everything underneath. And the Cowboys aren't this team

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Speaker 1: that's been running the Chiefs beaters, so to speak. So

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Speaker 1: far this year, Quinn has evolved. He's not just a

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Speaker 1: Cover three guy, but he's using a lot of cover

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Speaker 1: one and so we'll see what he does here. Most importantly,

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Speaker 1: the Dallas defense. I mean, they're not going to have

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Speaker 1: their top two pass rushers here. That's huge. You got

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Speaker 1: to drop both of your safeties. You need to get

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Speaker 1: natural pressure. DeMarcus Lawrence already on IR and now you

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Speaker 1: have Randy Gregory joining him, and he's been unbelievable. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's been one of the best edge rushers in the

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Speaker 1: entire league. The only two edge rushers have a higher

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Speaker 1: pass rush grade per PFF, Miles Garrett and Max Crosby.

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Speaker 1: That's it. So they lose his presence off of the edge.

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Speaker 1: So I think there's a lot of attack layers for

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Speaker 1: this Chiefs offense that despite all the turnovers, despite all

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Speaker 1: of the struggles, they're still top two in the league

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Speaker 1: in success rate n EPA per play. Another thing that's

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Speaker 1: helped the Chiefs. I think Tyreek kill is getting a

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Speaker 1: little healthier. But Orlando Brown has been playing much better

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Speaker 1: on Mahomes's blind If you look at his first five

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Speaker 1: games versus last five, he's been a different player. Makes sense.

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Speaker 1: He's coming over from a completely new team. You couldn't

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Speaker 1: ask for a different a more different scheme than what

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Speaker 1: he was playing in Baltimore. So he's playing a lot

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Speaker 1: better on that blind side. That's really helping the offense

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Speaker 1: as well. Speaking of the last five weeks, the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: have gone from one of the worst defenses in the

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Speaker 1: league historically bad to just below average. They've been playing

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Speaker 1: a lot better. Now. Look, the schedule hasn't been as brutal,

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Speaker 1: but we saw what they did last week. The first

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Speaker 1: five weeks they went two and three. They were allowing

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Speaker 1: thirty two point six per points per game. The past

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Speaker 1: five weeks they're four and one. They've allowed just fifteen

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Speaker 1: points six points per game, seventeen points fewer per game. Okay,

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Speaker 1: you know for weeks six of ten, what's changed. Sketch

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Speaker 1: has got a little easier. But it makes sense because

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Speaker 1: they've made a lot of changes personnel wise. They added

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Speaker 1: Melvin Ingram, They moved Chris Jones back to the interior.

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Speaker 1: That experiment with him on the edge failed miserably. Daniel

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Speaker 1: Sorensen worse safety in football. That cut his snaps in half,

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Speaker 1: so don't know why he's playing. That means more, jan Thornhill.

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Speaker 1: You get Willie Gay back healthy, you get ward back healthy,

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Speaker 1: a lot of different personnel changes on this defense that

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Speaker 1: I think are translating to more success. Will Dallas still

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Speaker 1: move the ball, absolutely, but this Chief's defense I think

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Speaker 1: is now just below average right still probably around twenty

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Speaker 1: second twenty that's all they need to be early in

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Speaker 1: the year. They're dead last. You couldn't bet them at all.

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Speaker 1: They're also turning the ball over, so I think there's

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Speaker 1: turn of a regression on both sides, or the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: offense and the Cowboys defense. And I just need the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs to win by a field goal here at home.

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Speaker 1: I think they can do that, especially when you consider

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Speaker 1: if the field goal is big here. Chiefs have butcker

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Speaker 1: Cowboys have an XCFL kicker who also from what I've seen,

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Speaker 1: could cost them on kickoffs and field position when the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs have a dangerous return game. So give me Kansas

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Speaker 1: City under a field goal here. If I just need

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Speaker 1: Mahomes to win by a field goal or more at home,

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Speaker 1: I still trust them. I think that offense took a

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Speaker 1: big step for last week and they're finally starting to

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Speaker 1: understand how they have to attack defenses. And there's some

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Speaker 1: exploitable ones here against the Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: D Yeah, if you got a drink for every time.

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Speaker 4: Chris Collinsworth said, Mahomes is playing the game the way it.

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Speaker 2: Is supposed to be played or whatever.

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Speaker 4: He was on Sunday night, like you would be drunk,

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Speaker 4: because yeah, he was kind of figuring it out here.

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Speaker 2: Anytime you're getting.

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Speaker 4: The cheese under three at home, I mean, it doesn't

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Speaker 4: matter who you're playing almost. I mean, the Chiefs are

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Speaker 4: going to be right there when it's all setting down,

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Speaker 4: one of the best teams in the league.

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Speaker 2: So I agree with this one.

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Speaker 1: I think, Yeah, Mahomes. Mahomes said it too. He said,

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Speaker 1: it's against my nature, like they seem so stubborn. Henry,

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Speaker 1: He's against my nature to play this way. But I

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Speaker 1: think that he's finally over the past few weeks he's

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Speaker 1: finally starting to realize, Okay, this is what I need

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Speaker 1: to do, and that formula will work really well against Dallas.

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Speaker 1: You can run on them, if you can throw short passes,

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Speaker 1: you can throw to your tight end, and then you

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Speaker 1: can exploit their aggressiveness on the outside with double moves,

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Speaker 1: hit hill onto deep shots. I think this sets up

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Speaker 1: for a huge hill game, which has been Yeah, it's

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Speaker 1: been brewing and I think this is the perfect matchup

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Speaker 1: for it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's gotta be more than just scheme, because it

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Speaker 4: definitely is kind of like like Mahomes alluded to, just

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Speaker 4: more habitual, you know, with your nature and how you play.

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Speaker 4: Because this has been the talk of the NFL for

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Speaker 4: a while now. I remember you talking about it in

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Speaker 4: the offseason, you know, even going back to last year.

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Speaker 4: This Gannon Staly Fangio defense, play the safeties deep, eliminate

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Speaker 4: the big play, like this is not a secret. This

398
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Speaker 4: is there's a reason Cover two and out of vogue

399
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Speaker 4: in the first place, and everyone went to the single

400
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,399
Speaker 4: high for a while, you know, like this is not

401
00:18:32,560 --> 00:18:34,639
Speaker 4: a new thing, and now all of a sudden, it's

402
00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:37,919
Speaker 4: like everyone's doing it to these elite offenses and they

403
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,239
Speaker 4: kind of know it's coming, and a lot of them

404
00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:41,920
Speaker 4: are still struggling with I mean, you're seeing it happen

405
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Speaker 4: to the Chargers and that's their exact scheme that they

406
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Speaker 4: play every day in practice, and the same things happened

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Speaker 4: to the Chargers.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, yeah, it's an adjustment league. We saw the

409
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Speaker 1: Cover three tree and all those defenses have success, and

410
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Speaker 1: then everyone kind of started to figure out how to

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Speaker 1: beat those Carol defenses, and then teams started look at

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Speaker 1: Dan Quinn. He was just a pure Cover three guy

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Speaker 1: and now he's kind of migrated away from that. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that the Chiefs had to adjust to the league.

415
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Speaker 1: They're finally figuring out how to do it. And despite

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Speaker 1: all that, they're still tough from a success right perspective.

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Speaker 1: Number one offense in the NFL.

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Speaker 4: The teams that the Chiefs of bost two are combined

419
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Speaker 4: twenty five and twelve. So the sky's not falling for

420
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Speaker 4: Kansas City. But yeah, for my first pick and the

421
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Speaker 4: second overall of the week eleven Sunday six pack, I

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Speaker 4: am going with the Seattle Seahawks plus two and a

423
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Speaker 4: half home dog against the Arizona Cardinals. How to eat

424
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Speaker 4: that shutout last week? I mean, you get Russell Wilson.

425
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Speaker 4: I actually got a couple points of closing line value

426
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Speaker 4: because I had bet it when it was plus five

427
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:45,399
Speaker 4: early in the week. And you know, for them to

428
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Speaker 4: get shut out, for them to hold Rogers to seventeen

429
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Speaker 4: in Wambeau and rush through two end zone you know interceptions,

430
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Speaker 4: I mean that you just got to eat that.

431
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Speaker 2: It was a bad game coming off the finger.

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Speaker 4: I guess he's probably you know, thinking more about the

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Speaker 4: rehab than he was about the game plan and practice

434
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 4: and all that stuff, because just look off. But uh,

435
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 4: we know, if we know anything about Seattle is that

436
00:20:06,720 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 4: they're gonna play close games. They're they're gonna come when

437
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:12,199
Speaker 4: you least expect it. They're very much similar to Minnesota

438
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:14,919
Speaker 4: team we'll talk about in a little bit, but they

439
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,560
Speaker 4: have this kind of old veteran coaches that everyone wants fired,

440
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:19,760
Speaker 4: but they always kind of come up with a win

441
00:20:20,480 --> 00:20:24,120
Speaker 4: just when you least expect it. Russell Wilson twenty four

442
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 4: twelve and two sixty seven percent against the spread as

443
00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 4: an underdog in his career, six and three as a

444
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 4: home underdog. Uh. And then you have Pete Carroll and

445
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 4: Russ coming off a loss twenty seven fourteen and four

446
00:20:38,160 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 4: sixty six percent, Pete Caron Russ coming off a multi

447
00:20:41,640 --> 00:20:46,200
Speaker 4: game losing streak seven one and one against the spread

448
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 4: sixty six percent. So, I mean, there's just a lot

449
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,199
Speaker 4: of different, you know things with Seattle here. You know

450
00:20:52,280 --> 00:20:55,240
Speaker 4: that I think that that, you know, kind of suggests

451
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:56,280
Speaker 4: that we should buy low.

452
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:58,800
Speaker 2: And then you look at Arizona. Now they have a buye.

453
00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:01,240
Speaker 4: After this, there's been talk that, you know, Kyler, he's

454
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 4: kind of practicing on a limited basis year, but all

455
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 4: the reports were hearing that they might hold.

456
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 2: Him out towards uh, you know, for the buye.

457
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 4: The coach Cliff that it's gonna be close for him

458
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 4: to give it a go this week, and if he does,

459
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:15,800
Speaker 4: he's gonna be on a hindered ankle.

460
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 2: And you know that's you know, we we've seen Kyler

461
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 2: play hurt before and.

462
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,520
Speaker 4: It really hasn't you know, it hasn't really been a

463
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:26,040
Speaker 4: positive for this Arizona offense. So I think this is

464
00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:28,800
Speaker 4: this is for Seattle season. Like the NFC Wildcard race

465
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 4: is still wide open. You have a bunch of teams

466
00:21:31,119 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 4: that all the other teams are gonna look at those

467
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,000
Speaker 4: teams and say, we can we can beat these guys,

468
00:21:35,000 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 4: that we can just catch them. I mean there's Atlanta, Carolina, Uh,

469
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:39,879
Speaker 4: what the Saints. Like, No one's scared of any of

470
00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:43,479
Speaker 4: these teams. San Francisco, so Seattle, even though they're near

471
00:21:43,560 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 4: the bottom of the conference, they're you're gonna get probably

472
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 4: their best game.

473
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 2: Obviously it can't get any worse.

474
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 4: But I do think the one thing that gives me hope,

475
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 4: you know, as far as the X and o's perspective is.

476
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 2: And we saw this last year. We said this exact

477
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:57,120
Speaker 2: same thing last year.

478
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 4: But the defense is starting to come to other you know,

479
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 4: we saw them play a good game against Rogers in

480
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 4: Wamba last week.

481
00:22:03,760 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 2: You look at their last five games.

482
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 4: They give up twenty six to the Rams, twenty three

483
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 4: to the Steelers, thirteen to the Saints, seven to the Jags,

484
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 4: seventeen to the Packers.

485
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:13,520
Speaker 2: So they're taking care of.

486
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 4: Business with the bad offenses and they're not giving up

487
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 4: you know, those twenty eight thirties to the good offenses.

488
00:22:19,880 --> 00:22:22,600
Speaker 4: You know, San Francisco comes out I think ten points

489
00:22:22,640 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 4: early and they shut them out for like the remainder

490
00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 4: of the game, or they you know, hold them in

491
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:28,400
Speaker 4: check for the remainder of the game.

492
00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 2: They San Francisco ends up with twenty one.

493
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 4: So, I mean the Seattle defense has been playing well

494
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 4: for about six weeks five six weeks depending on how

495
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 4: you look at it. And this is just a spot

496
00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 4: to buy them coming off a brutal showing that I

497
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 4: just had to eat last week, and you know, take

498
00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:44,719
Speaker 4: out Seattle.

499
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 2: I know we talk a lot about Russ and Carol,

500
00:22:47,280 --> 00:22:47,679
Speaker 2: but just.

501
00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 4: An underdog that got shut out the week before against

502
00:22:51,560 --> 00:22:55,040
Speaker 4: the sixty seven percent when the favorites not coming off

503
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 4: of buye. So it's forty one to twenty and three

504
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,440
Speaker 4: when when the other team is not off the buy

505
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,959
Speaker 4: a spot where if you're a better you're looking at

506
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,399
Speaker 4: Seattle and saying this is a prime Bilo spot. Is

507
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,560
Speaker 4: as ugly as it looked last week. This is not

508
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 4: the time to kind of get scared here. You got

509
00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:11,919
Speaker 4: to go right back to the well and you might

510
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,840
Speaker 4: even get some clothesingline value yet again, because again number one,

511
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:18,240
Speaker 4: I don't know if Kayle was going to play. Number two,

512
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 4: I don't know how healthy is so love Seattle in

513
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 4: this spot at home with the twelves, their defense already

514
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 4: playing well a division game, always tighter.

515
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: You're just you're gonna get a great effort from Seattle.

516
00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:32,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, even if Mary plays, I'll see

517
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: value in this number. I think, look, this is gonna

518
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: be my second pick. So I was mad that you

519
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 1: took it, but yeah, Seattle, I think this line. I

520
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: think it was a good chance that they hold Mary

521
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 1: out again, and who knows, with Hopkins hamstring, you have

522
00:23:45,960 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 1: Mary with an ankle, and last year Mary had an

523
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: injury that lingered all year. Given their position in the

524
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,880
Speaker 1: standings and what happened last year with a buy on deck,

525
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,679
Speaker 1: I mean Kingsbury said he'll be careful in his return.

526
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: They are aware they have only one game left before

527
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 1: the bye, which brings more rest. He said it's going

528
00:24:04,080 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 1: to be close, but every all of his quotes are like,

529
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: we got to be cautious, so I wouldn't shock you

530
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 1: that again. He's held after the third week in row

531
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:13,200
Speaker 1: and betting Seattle earlier the week, and I wouldn't be

532
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:15,160
Speaker 1: surprised to just closed the Seattle minus three if he's

533
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:17,720
Speaker 1: announced out. I mean, the Colt McCoy show came to

534
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 1: an end last week. And look, Russell Wilson looked bad

535
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 1: last week, but we've seen that all year with quarterbacks

536
00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,399
Speaker 1: coming back for their first start after some time off

537
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: with an injury. Look at Dak Prescott, look like you

538
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: never played the position before against Denver. Look at Russ

539
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 1: last week. I mean, it's happened over and over again.

540
00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: And guess what if Murray place, he might have some

541
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,480
Speaker 1: of that Russ too, and he's I doubt, like you said,

542
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:39,399
Speaker 1: he's gonna be one hundred percent mobile that really kills

543
00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: their offense. I think you get Look, this is the

544
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 1: perfect buy low spot on the stat there's articles now

545
00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,560
Speaker 1: in Seattle about this is the end of Russ's air.

546
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: It's over so all that this team's done like that's

547
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 1: that's usually the by signal in the NFL market speak.

548
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 1: Speaking of Russ, He's never in his career lost three

549
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:02,879
Speaker 1: straight starts. He's looking to avoid that here. And this

550
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,639
Speaker 1: Cardinals team still think they're severely overrated. They have massive

551
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,880
Speaker 1: regression coming in the fumble department, fourth downs, third down defense,

552
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: some of which you saw last week, and they got crushed,

553
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: crushed at home by the Panthers. I think you see

554
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,959
Speaker 1: a similar outcome if Kyler Murray doesn't play, I think

555
00:25:21,000 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 1: they could. I think the Seattle could end up rolling here.

556
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,359
Speaker 1: So yeah, I love this would have been my second pick.

557
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:29,159
Speaker 4: You know, just to kind of put a bow on it.

558
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 4: You know, you talk about underrated, overrated. Seattle is playing

559
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 4: minus two point two below their estimated wins.

560
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 2: They're three and five. They have five point two estimated

561
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,199
Speaker 2: wins according to football Outsiders. Yeah, the Cardinals are eight

562
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 2: and two. You know, they're playing a full win above.

563
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 4: So this is a great, you know, kind of Bible

564
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 4: cell high spot and an underrated factor. You know, talking

565
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 4: about Kyler and whether he plays or sits is what's

566
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 4: happening with the Rams. Because regardless of what happens with

567
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:58,119
Speaker 4: the Cardinals this week, they could lose the game, they

568
00:25:58,160 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 4: are still in sole possession of the NFC West here

569
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,199
Speaker 4: because they would be eight and three. The Rams are

570
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:06,399
Speaker 4: run by the Rams would be seven and three. So

571
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 4: that Ram losing streak I think took a little bit

572
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,240
Speaker 4: of pressure off the Cardinals here. And then you look

573
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,199
Speaker 4: at Seattle. It's the end of Russ's era. Really, all right,

574
00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:16,600
Speaker 4: Let's say that they have six losses right now, they

575
00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:20,200
Speaker 4: have seventeen games. Here are the one, the one, and

576
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 4: look at their schedule Arizona, Okay, that's tough, Washington, San Francisco, Houston, Rams, Bears,

577
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:30,600
Speaker 4: Bryant Cardinals Division games. You gotta like, you gotta figure

578
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:31,320
Speaker 4: they'll take one out of.

579
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 2: Tude with the Cardinals. You know, the Rams is a

580
00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:34,800
Speaker 2: toss up, but could they.

581
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,920
Speaker 4: Could legitimately lose. Let's say they lose two, there's still

582
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 4: be nine to eight. There's a seventh wildcard seed, but

583
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 4: there's a legitimate shot that they could run the table

584
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 4: have one lost the rest of the way, I mean,

585
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 4: the division games are really the only games that you worry.

586
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 2: About at all.

587
00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: I mean, they lose this, I think it's I think

588
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,399
Speaker 1: their playoff chances are pretty much gone. If they win this,

589
00:26:54,880 --> 00:26:56,640
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a shot and they're gonna be right there.

590
00:26:57,040 --> 00:26:59,159
Speaker 2: And by the way, I taking a page out of

591
00:26:59,200 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 2: your book.

592
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 4: Got to raise one more for the fake Cliff counter

593
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,959
Speaker 4: on this podcast, Cliff Kingsbury.

594
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, hit the bell, all right, played him for waite

595
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,560
Speaker 1: week one at least, maybe never again.

596
00:27:11,760 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 2: All right.

597
00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: For my second pick and the third overall, the Sunday

598
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 1: six pack, I'm going with the Minnesota Vikings plus two

599
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 1: and a half at bet MGM. They are hosting the

600
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:25,200
Speaker 1: Packers in the one hundred and twentieth Border Battle under

601
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,560
Speaker 1: twenty regular season beating of the quarter battle. You want

602
00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 1: to talk about you just mentioned estimated wins. Look, Packers

603
00:27:31,880 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: are eight and two, Vikings are four and five estimated wins.

604
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 1: Both are at six point four. These two teams you

605
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,040
Speaker 1: want to look at DVA Vikings in the top ten.

606
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 1: Packers are not the Packers are Look, their defense is

607
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 1: playing excellent, but I do not think it's sustainable. Russell Douglas,

608
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 1: you know, Stokes, Kevin King, this corner group, I don't

609
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,359
Speaker 1: think it's going to hold up, especially against Kirk Cousins

610
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: playing at a top five level with one of the

611
00:27:55,560 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 1: best wide receiver rooms in the entire NFL. Look Andre

612
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 1: Campbells all of a sudden an all pro linebacker. Don't

613
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 1: see it. And there's so many injuries. I just don't

614
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: think that this Packers' defense can sustain the way that

615
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 1: they've been playing, especially with all the injuries. I mean,

616
00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: Zadaria Smith's already on IR, Jia Alexander's on IR. You

617
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 1: lose Merciless off the edge for the season to an

618
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 1: injury for Shaun Gary, who's top five in the NFL

619
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: and quarterback pressures and hits among edge rushers this year.

620
00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: He hyper extended his elbow. He might give it a go,

621
00:28:25,400 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 1: he won't be fully healthy. Packer is one of the

622
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:30,000
Speaker 1: most cautious teams in the NFL when it comes to injuries,

623
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,480
Speaker 1: so if he's missing, I mean, this defense is decimated.

624
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,199
Speaker 1: Not only do I think Cousins could throw in this defense,

625
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,880
Speaker 1: they should be able to run all day against the Packers' defense,

626
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 1: I still can't defend the run. Doavil Cooks should eat

627
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 1: as he did last year when they went in. I

628
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: think they went into Lambeau and just routed Green Bay

629
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 1: and he went he went off. So I think that

630
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 1: this offense could score on Green Bay. And this Green

631
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 1: Bay offense is just not the same as we're accustomed

632
00:28:53,400 --> 00:28:57,320
Speaker 1: to seeing. They you know, look they've lost brought Bob Tanyan.

633
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 1: They now have lost presumably Aaron Jones still have a

634
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: great backup, but Aaron Jones will hurt in the passing

635
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 1: attack and the offensive line is dealing with injuries as well.

636
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:12,880
Speaker 1: In the Vikings defense, despite a lot of injuries this year,

637
00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 1: despite having pretty much a brand new group compared to

638
00:29:15,640 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 1: the one that finished last year. Since Week three, when

639
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:23,360
Speaker 1: they're top ten across the board in success rate EPA

640
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: per play, and this week they should be getting Peterson back.

641
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: They will be getting their star safety Harrison Spit back.

642
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: They also should be getting bar back. So I mean

643
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 1: this defense will now be a lot healthier than it

644
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: has been and it's just playing at an elite level.

645
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 1: This is last year was the exception to the rule

646
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 1: to the Mike Zimmer defense. This is normally what you

647
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: get with Mike Zimmer's defense. I think the Packers are

648
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: just overvalued in the market because they're winning all of

649
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: these coin flip games and the Vikings are not. Let's

650
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 1: take two games, two opponents, both on the road that

651
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,640
Speaker 1: both of these teams played Cincinnati. Minnesota lost to them

652
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 1: in overtime because of a botched review. Green Bay beat

653
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 1: Cincinnati at overtime because no one could make a field

654
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: goal for forty straight minutes. Okay, one one in overtime,

655
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 1: both coin flips. All right, let's go to Arizona. Arizona

656
00:30:12,920 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 1: has an audible wrong at the end of the game

657
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: of the goal line and throws a pick. Green Bay

658
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 1: hangs on to win. What about Minnesota. They miss a

659
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 1: thirty yard field goal to win the game. Two more

660
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 1: coin flips. One goes the Packers way, one goes the Vikings.

661
00:30:26,000 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: With these these two teams could easily both have you know,

662
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:33,360
Speaker 1: six wins on the season. Even that Washington game's Green Bay.

663
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 1: Washington out played Green Bay. They don't vomit inside the

664
00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 1: five for sixty minutes. They win that game. So this

665
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 1: Green Bay team, I think it's a good opportunity to

666
00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 1: sell them here. There's not much difference between these teams,

667
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 1: just the record, which who cares, And now you're getting

668
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:49,880
Speaker 1: two and a half at home with a Vikings team

669
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: that's playing for their playoff lives here at home. Crowd

670
00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,360
Speaker 1: will be crazy, and I think this Packer's defense is

671
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 1: due for some regression and the Vikings are due to

672
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 1: win one of these close games. Mike Zimmer betam as

673
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:06,400
Speaker 1: an underdog thirty one to twenty against the spread as

674
00:31:06,400 --> 00:31:09,480
Speaker 1: an underdog thirteen and six sixty eight and a half

675
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:11,920
Speaker 1: percent against teams that have won at least two thirds

676
00:31:11,960 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: of their games, so he's been really good in this spot. Yeah,

677
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,600
Speaker 1: I think this is a good buy low opportunity on

678
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,120
Speaker 1: the Vikings. I think they get it done here and

679
00:31:20,760 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 1: the Packers will be fine. Though the defensive showed enough

680
00:31:22,720 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 1: promise that they're a legit Super Bowl contender, but they've

681
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 1: definitely been getting pretty fortunate here. There's a reason that

682
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:32,800
Speaker 1: in a lot of advanced metrics that measure the season

683
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: long team, the Vikings are ahead of the Packers despite

684
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: having four fewer wins, and you're catching two and a

685
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: half here, probably gonna be a close game, field goals

686
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,360
Speaker 1: could matter. Packers' special team has been a mess. Their

687
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 1: kicking situation is a mess that could matter here as well.

688
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: Give me the Vikings as a home dog, I would

689
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: normally suggest the wait to get to three. I don't

690
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: think this is getting the three. Give you Minnesota plus

691
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:55,720
Speaker 1: two and a half.

692
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of ruined my host six back because like,

693
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,560
Speaker 4: I wanted to Vikings so bad, but I had to

694
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:04,120
Speaker 4: play the game theory. I knew you wanted to fade Cliff,

695
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 4: so I had to take Seattle and you took Casey first.

696
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: I was just hoping.

697
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 4: I was hoping there was like another team you like

698
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 4: more than Minnesota and another thing, like you didn't even

699
00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 4: mentioned green Bay nine and one against the spread. Green

700
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 4: Bay's gonna play another egg at some point. You know,

701
00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 4: we've seen it with every team in the week. Green

702
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 4: Bay is not gonna finish the year fifteen sixteen and

703
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 4: one against the spread. They're gonna lay some eggs. You know,

704
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 4: Minnesota has beat them in green Bay last year. Mike

705
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:28,680
Speaker 4: Zimmer is five and four against the spread as a

706
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 4: dog against Aaron Rodgers. He's four and three against the

707
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 4: spread on the road. I mean at home against Rogers.

708
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,360
Speaker 4: So it's you know, it's it's a it's a spot

709
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 4: where Minnesota could easily win this game.

710
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:40,720
Speaker 2: These are very evenly matched teams.

711
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 4: As you mentioned, green Bay outside the top ten in

712
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 4: DVOA the twelfth, Minnesota's ninth.

713
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 2: So yeah, love love the spot for four.

714
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:51,800
Speaker 1: Yeah Rogers, rodgers own right foot. Rogers's own the Vikings

715
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 1: throughout his career is from a statistical point of view,

716
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: I mean, it's fifty fifty one touchdowns at seven picks

717
00:32:56,600 --> 00:32:58,960
Speaker 1: in twenty five games including the playoffs, one hundred and

718
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: eight passer ready and that's the most so of any

719
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: quarterback against the Vikings in franchise history. DeVante minimum two

720
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 1: hundred attempts. Davante Adams also five touchdowns against the Vikings

721
00:33:07,520 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: last year in two games. But last week said we

722
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: talked about this, those numbers are plated by last year

723
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 1: the Vikings defense was just had all the opt outs,

724
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 1: the injuries. They couldn't stop anyone who the worst defenses

725
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:22,160
Speaker 1: in the league. This defense, different story. I think Minnesota

726
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:22,720
Speaker 1: gets it done.

727
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 4: The last time the Stie has played twenty eight twenty

728
00:33:25,040 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 4: two Minnesota in LAMBA so.

729
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 1: Yep, Cooke went bonkers. I think that can happen right.

730
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 2: Very very much so.

731
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 4: For my second pick and the fourth overall of the week,

732
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 4: eleven Sunday six pack, I am going with the Las

733
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 4: Vegas Raiders plus one at bet MGM at home against

734
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:47,880
Speaker 4: the Cincinnati Bengals. And this is just a spot where

735
00:33:47,880 --> 00:33:50,560
Speaker 4: I'm targeting to a coin flip game that I'm getting.

736
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 2: You know, I'm getting points here with.

737
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 4: A home dog despite these teams being evenly batched, if

738
00:33:57,800 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 4: not the Raiders better.

739
00:33:58,720 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 2: I mean, you look at DVOA.

740
00:34:00,320 --> 00:34:02,360
Speaker 4: The Raiders are twenty third, so they're not as good

741
00:34:02,360 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 4: as their record, but neither is Cincinnati. They're twenty fifth,

742
00:34:05,520 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 4: so and remember dv always schedule adjusted. I don't know

743
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 4: how much that means this year because it seems like

744
00:34:10,080 --> 00:34:13,200
Speaker 4: everyone's beating everyone and losing to everyone. But either way,

745
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 4: you have two evenly matched teams. So you're telling me that,

746
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 4: you know, just because Cincinnati coming off buying these buy teams,

747
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 4: These teams off the buys have not been good this year,

748
00:34:22,680 --> 00:34:25,240
Speaker 4: you know, they've They've been below fifty percent against the spread,

749
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 4: so the books are starting to bake that into the line.

750
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 4: You're not really getting an edge anymore targeting these teams

751
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 4: coming off bys road Taylor too, right, you get Roodzach Taylor,

752
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,520
Speaker 4: who's always gonna bring that up. He's four and fifteen

753
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:41,320
Speaker 4: and a tie straight up. And remember this is a

754
00:34:41,360 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 4: one point spread here, so essentially betting the Raiders to

755
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 4: win the game. They're at home, they're coming off the

756
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 4: losing streak. They weren't as good as their record showed

757
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 4: early in the year, but they're also not bad enough

758
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 4: to be giving points to Cincinnati Bengals essentially still, I mean,

759
00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 4: more or less the last place team in the AFC North,

760
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 4: I mean, all things considered, So this to me is

761
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,680
Speaker 4: just is just wild. The Raiders still can do some things,

762
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,360
Speaker 4: you know, pressure wise, they can still they still have

763
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 4: some decent cornerbacks. You know, even with releasing our net

764
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 4: and whatnot. You know, the defense is going to do

765
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,720
Speaker 4: what it does. But this is actually a good matchup

766
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,880
Speaker 4: for the Raiders because what does Gus Browley do. He

767
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,040
Speaker 4: likes to play a ton of zone. He likes to

768
00:35:21,040 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 4: play a lot of single high and so the Raiders

769
00:35:23,800 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 4: are one of the most zone heavy teams, you know,

770
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 4: top three in zone coverage rate. Well, Cincinnati against man coverage,

771
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:33,279
Speaker 4: they're ravaging eleven point nine yards per target and a

772
00:35:33,360 --> 00:35:36,920
Speaker 4: touchdown rate of twelve point six percent per target. Against

773
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 4: zone coverage that drops three point three yards per target

774
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:44,160
Speaker 4: down to eight point six and the touchdown rate gets

775
00:35:44,239 --> 00:35:46,920
Speaker 4: cut into one fifth at two point one percent. So

776
00:35:47,480 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 4: you're talking about the Cincinnati team that's gonna kind of

777
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:53,799
Speaker 4: have to work for its scores against this Raider team

778
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 4: that again, it's just it's just as good as Cincinnati,

779
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,680
Speaker 4: you know. I know rug isn't there. Ruggs was obviously

780
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:03,880
Speaker 4: a big part of the offense. But they're getting Jacobs

781
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 4: more involved, They're getting Drake more involved, Bryan Edwards is

782
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 4: breaking out. He's still got renfro and Waller, so you've

783
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 4: still got two guys that in a short to intermediate

784
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:14,640
Speaker 4: area you can win a game like this. I think

785
00:36:14,680 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 4: they got the field goals out of their system after

786
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 4: they burned them against the Giants in the game that

787
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:21,040
Speaker 4: you called the upset first team this year to kick

788
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 4: three field goals of twenty five yards or less or

789
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:25,439
Speaker 4: something like that. So they're not gonna they're not gonna

790
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,400
Speaker 4: do that anymore. They're gonna play aggressive. They're at home,

791
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,640
Speaker 4: they're desperate to stay in this race. Cincinnati hasn't played

792
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 4: in a while. Of these buye teams have been coming

793
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 4: out rusty LV. The Raiders are a better team by DVOA,

794
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 4: and their defense matches up perfectly with Cincinnati. From a

795
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 4: stematic standpoint, To give me the Raiders plus one as

796
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:45,760
Speaker 4: a home dog against the Bengals.

797
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, no strong feel here, but I don't necessarily disagree

798
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:53,040
Speaker 1: with you. I could also see this being a shootout.

799
00:36:53,120 --> 00:36:56,279
Speaker 1: I do think that it basically will come down to

800
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 1: how much pressure the Raiders edge rushers in Crosby and

801
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: then Gotway can get on Burrow and disrupt that offense.

802
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 1: And they've done that in quite a few games this year.

803
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 1: If they can get home against still a bad Bengals

804
00:37:12,760 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 1: offensive line and forced Burrow into mistakes third and longs

805
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:19,440
Speaker 1: that I think the Raiders can win this game. But

806
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:22,760
Speaker 1: probably a stay away for me, this has the shootout potential.

807
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,759
Speaker 1: I do lean the over at fifty right. For my

808
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 1: third pick and the fifth overall of the Sunday six pack,

809
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 1: I'm going with the hold your nose Houston Texans plus

810
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,399
Speaker 1: ten and a half against the Tennessee Titans. We talked

811
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: about quarterbacks being very poor in their first start after

812
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:45,000
Speaker 1: coming back from a long break of injury break. Here's

813
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:50,720
Speaker 1: another example, Tyrod Taylor against the Dolphins, just uncharacteristic throws

814
00:37:51,000 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 1: turnovers and this guy, throughout his career one of the

815
00:37:53,840 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 1: lowest interception rates in NFL history. Got to shake off

816
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:00,920
Speaker 1: the rust. He has a bye two weeks to kind

817
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,920
Speaker 1: of work with the ones, get back into the flow.

818
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 1: I expect a much better Tyrod Taylor here. This is

819
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 1: a tyer taller who can use his legs here against

820
00:38:09,680 --> 00:38:12,360
Speaker 1: the bad run defense that they're getting a lot of pressure,

821
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 1: so his mobility will be very key here. He also

822
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:18,000
Speaker 1: won't kill them with mistakes. I'm capt banking on his

823
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: priors and everything he's done outside of that one fluke game,

824
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,120
Speaker 1: which was the exception of the rule against the Dolphins.

825
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 1: And this is a Titans team that we've seen over

826
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:34,320
Speaker 1: and over again play down to its competition. Mike Rabel

827
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 1: just awesome as an underdog, seventeen and nine against the

828
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:42,520
Speaker 1: spread over sixty five percent. As a favorite, He's thirteen,

829
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 1: eighteen and one, and this reminds me of a spot

830
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 1: back in twenty eighteen. They were ten, and I think

831
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 1: it was his late November, they were ten and a

832
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: half point favorites against Josh McCown and the Jets at home.

833
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 1: They had just come off four games against team playoff team,

834
00:39:02,600 --> 00:39:04,520
Speaker 1: they'd all had double digit wins. They were like ten

835
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 1: and a half at home. Huge, just flat spot. They

836
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,120
Speaker 1: needed thirteen straight points in the fourth quarter to come

837
00:39:10,160 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: back to win by four against Josh McCown and the Jets.

838
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: What are the Titans done? They've won five straight against

839
00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 1: the Bills, the Chiefs, at the Colts, at the Rams,

840
00:39:20,960 --> 00:39:23,399
Speaker 1: come home for the Saints. Oh guess what? Next week

841
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 1: they have the Patriots. I mean, do you want to

842
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 1: talk about a flat spot like? They've won all five

843
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 1: of those games against really good competition with the Patriots

844
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 1: next week. I mean, and look, there's no Derrick Henry,

845
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 1: there's no Julio Jones, So it would not shock me

846
00:39:38,800 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 1: to see the Titans come out completely flat here. And yes,

847
00:39:42,760 --> 00:39:44,439
Speaker 1: they went five and er on those games, but Josh

848
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: Allen slipped on a quarterback steak inside the five. They

849
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: beat the Colts in overtime because you know, essentially the

850
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: Colts guy towards ACL on an interception return and fumbled

851
00:39:54,640 --> 00:39:57,520
Speaker 1: the ball, and you know they beat the Saints because

852
00:39:57,520 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 1: of Jerome Boger, so they usually could have been two

853
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 1: and three of those games. I think they're a little

854
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,440
Speaker 1: over died in the market right now. Defensive line is

855
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:06,839
Speaker 1: playing well, but I think Tyron Taylor can do enough

856
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,399
Speaker 1: to keep this within the number. It's not a Titan

857
00:40:09,480 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 1: scene that's at full strength right now, especially on the

858
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 1: offensive side of the ball. Uh So, yeah, give me

859
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:19,359
Speaker 1: the ten and a half and let's hope JR. Own

860
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: Boger was not a signed to the Titans again.

861
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:23,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

862
00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:26,239
Speaker 4: Man, I mean this is a team in Houston that

863
00:40:26,360 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 4: we've you know, we were looking to kind of buy

864
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 4: when Tyrod was playing.

865
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:31,120
Speaker 2: Well, we just we made there.

866
00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:33,239
Speaker 4: You know, a lot of us I know here bet

867
00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 4: the the Texans in that game when two got ruled

868
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 4: out and it just didn't work out.

869
00:40:38,239 --> 00:40:40,640
Speaker 2: I think it was the right play there. You know,

870
00:40:41,040 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 2: they cover that more often than not.

871
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 4: If Tyron doesn't, if he just doesn't throw like one

872
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,160
Speaker 4: of those interceptions, they might cover that that last game. So,

873
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 4: uh yeah, I don't disagree. I might I might have

874
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:52,920
Speaker 4: to join you here. I mean I've been looking for

875
00:40:52,960 --> 00:40:54,760
Speaker 4: a way to kind of, you know, fade these Titans.

876
00:40:54,800 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 4: Now the I you know, they're it's something to be said.

877
00:40:57,719 --> 00:40:59,879
Speaker 4: They're playing physical, which you know, it sounds like such

878
00:40:59,920 --> 00:41:01,600
Speaker 4: a cliche, but it seems to be.

879
00:41:01,680 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 2: Like getting in. It seems to be getting to their opponents.

880
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:06,360
Speaker 4: Because then we also heard that the Rams are struggling

881
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 4: with like physicality, and I don't know what the Titans

882
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 4: are doing with teams, but they're just kind of wearing

883
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,080
Speaker 4: them down. And even it's like even without Henry, they

884
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 4: seem to just be the more physical team. But yeah,

885
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 4: used to coming off of bye tie ride here, I

886
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 4: think I think this could be a much tougher It's

887
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:23,399
Speaker 4: a division game, right, Like, it could be a much

888
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,600
Speaker 4: tougher out for Tennessee, even if they inevitably win by

889
00:41:26,719 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 4: like a field goal. Again, see, I don't disagree at

890
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,879
Speaker 4: all all Right, for my third pick and the sixth

891
00:41:32,920 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 4: overall pick of the week eleven Sunday six Pack, didn't

892
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 4: want to have to do it again. I feel like

893
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,120
Speaker 4: I do this every week on this podcast. It's worked

894
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:47,360
Speaker 4: out lately, But hold your nose. Take the Pittsburgh Steelers

895
00:41:47,840 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 4: plus five and a half at bet MGM A Chargers rara.

896
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 4: It's hurrahra spot. But Mike Tomlin what a rarah. Mike

897
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 4: Tomlin spot game with this cruel bodies right here today,

898
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 4: bring you only game today. As an underdog from week

899
00:42:08,000 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 4: three on in his career, thirty seven covers sixteen failures

900
00:42:14,040 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 4: to cover with two pushes, seventy one percent against the

901
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 4: spread on a sample size of fifty five games.

902
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:24,360
Speaker 2: This is his spot.

903
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:25,839
Speaker 4: All right, hit that horn, babe.

904
00:42:25,880 --> 00:42:26,279
Speaker 2: Let's day it.

905
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:27,680
Speaker 1: Now.

906
00:42:28,280 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 4: I'm almost hoping that Ben Roethlisberger does not play because

907
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,560
Speaker 4: number one probably gonna get a better number Number two

908
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 4: Tom Win as an underdog without pick Ben thirteen three

909
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 4: and two, eighty one percent against the spread against the Chargers.

910
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:48,879
Speaker 4: Tom Win pulled upsets with Michael Vick and I mean

911
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 4: like the ghost of Michael Vick and Duck Hodges beat

912
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:55,359
Speaker 4: the Chargers with each of those quarterbacks. So they can

913
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 4: do this.

914
00:42:56,200 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 2: They can absolutely do this.

915
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 4: Now you have Joey Bosa on the COVID list for

916
00:43:00,280 --> 00:43:03,600
Speaker 4: the Chargers with Tillery, that's big. But this is just

917
00:43:03,600 --> 00:43:06,279
Speaker 4: about the Steelers defense coming out strong. I know it

918
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:08,279
Speaker 4: looks like TJ. Watt's going to be out, but I

919
00:43:08,320 --> 00:43:11,719
Speaker 4: still think the Steelers, you know, their defense is still formidable.

920
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:17,000
Speaker 4: The Chargers are still working through some things offensively. It's

921
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:20,160
Speaker 4: kind of that second year with regression for Justin Herbert,

922
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:21,879
Speaker 4: which teams are starting to figure out what he's doing.

923
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:25,200
Speaker 2: They're playing that same coverage. He's a rookie. It's gonna

924
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 2: take some time and now adjust.

925
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,800
Speaker 4: You we saw awlong it took Mahomes and he's like,

926
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:31,440
Speaker 4: you know, like a four to fIF fifth year prospit

927
00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:33,760
Speaker 4: to Super Bowls and it took him a while to adjust.

928
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:35,320
Speaker 2: I think Herbert's kind in the midst of that.

929
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:38,200
Speaker 4: Right now, you look at these teams and waited DVA

930
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:43,280
Speaker 4: charges sixteenth, Steelers nineteen, so they're pretty much even charges

931
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:46,239
Speaker 4: the slightest of slightly above average, steers the slightest of

932
00:43:46,280 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 4: slightly below and then you know, you look at all

933
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 4: the models. I mean, you know, football Outsiders makes this

934
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 4: a two point game.

935
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 2: I make it. I make it about four, just.

936
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 4: Kind of adjusting to the uncertainty and the fact that

937
00:43:57,880 --> 00:44:00,800
Speaker 4: Big Ben could come back and be rusty off the COVID.

938
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:02,839
Speaker 4: But you know, we're getting we're getting up to five

939
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:04,120
Speaker 4: and a half. We might even you might even be

940
00:44:04,160 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 4: able to get a six out there.

941
00:44:05,600 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 2: If better is ruled out.

942
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 4: You're definitely getting a six even though Tomlin is thirteen

943
00:44:09,520 --> 00:44:11,480
Speaker 4: three and two is a dog without Big Ben.

944
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,279
Speaker 2: Look the greatest of all time. Look at your work, you.

945
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 4: Know, coming off a loss where Tom win, this was

946
00:44:16,320 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 4: like about as mad as Tom was gonna be.

947
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 1: Like.

948
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 4: He didn't even congratuate his team. He didn't even talk

949
00:44:22,719 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 4: up the other team after that tie.

950
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,759
Speaker 2: He was just livid. I'm gonna look at you real

951
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 2: close today. See if you highly conditioned it ready to go,

952
00:44:29,800 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 2: you know what I mean. And if you're not, I'm

953
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: gonna put you in the news.

954
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 4: You're gonna get a good effort out of the Steelers.

955
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,160
Speaker 4: You don't want to bet him his favorites. You absolutely

956
00:44:37,200 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 4: want to bet him his dogs, especially getting more than

957
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 4: a field goal in this spot. It's it's gonna be

958
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:46,399
Speaker 4: a struggle, a bigger struggle for the Chargers than people think.

959
00:44:46,520 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 4: So hold your nose. Take the Steelers plus five and

960
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:50,439
Speaker 4: a half. See if you can get six.

961
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 2: My kids want to have a good Christmas.

962
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:58,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's also worth mentioning last year. Roethlisberger went on

963
00:44:58,280 --> 00:45:03,320
Speaker 1: the COVID last week and then was activated on the

964
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:05,160
Speaker 1: day before the game, which could happen here. He has

965
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 1: to have two negative tests. He played the and look,

966
00:45:08,080 --> 00:45:10,040
Speaker 1: Ben was bad last year too, he played the Bengals.

967
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 1: He came off to actually being a good thing. When

968
00:45:12,400 --> 00:45:15,000
Speaker 1: he doesn't practice or throws he's so old. But he

969
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:16,960
Speaker 1: threw the ball like forty five times. He threw it

970
00:45:17,000 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 1: for like three hundred and fifty yards and four touchdowns

971
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,080
Speaker 1: against the Bengals and they won by thirty, So he

972
00:45:22,480 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 1: already knows the offense. I don't think that even if

973
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 1: he does play, it would be a bad thing. And

974
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:28,680
Speaker 1: last week he tested positive on a Saturday, So like

975
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 1: Mason Rudolph wasn't practicing all week with the ones, he

976
00:45:31,520 --> 00:45:33,880
Speaker 1: wasn't preparing to start, so he will be preparing to

977
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 1: start this week. So in either case, I think the

978
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,120
Speaker 1: stale was way in better shape as last week. And yeah,

979
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:42,400
Speaker 1: Chargers defense can't stop the run. Their you know, secondaries

980
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 1: and shampas bosas now hurt Tiller, I mean ghosts down

981
00:45:44,800 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 1: the COVID list. Tiller's in the COVID list is a

982
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 1: weird game. The handicap, I'll all right up for this game,

983
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:51,080
Speaker 1: but yeah, i'd just a classic Tomlin rob Ross spot.

984
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 1: You have injuries on the offensive line for the Pittsburgh

985
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 1: Hayden might be out. Fitzpatrick's probably out, lot might be out.

986
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 2: I don't want to hear about the pas man deliver

987
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:01,880
Speaker 2: the damn baby.

988
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 1: So it's not ideal, but just trust the spot. And

989
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:08,680
Speaker 1: I think that it's after adjusting for some of these

990
00:46:08,719 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 1: potential injuries, I think that it is too many points.

991
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:14,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's closer to it's closer to a three to

992
00:46:14,440 --> 00:46:17,359
Speaker 4: four a not a five six, you know, And that's

993
00:46:17,360 --> 00:46:20,319
Speaker 4: a big edge in this market, this industry that we're

994
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 4: talking about here, So yeah, give me Steelers. That is

995
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:25,760
Speaker 4: going to wrap it up for our week eleven Sunday

996
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 4: six pack. As a recap, Stucky is going with the

997
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 4: Kansas City Chiefs minus two and a half, the Minnesota

998
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 4: Vikings plus two and a half, the Houston Texans plus

999
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 4: ten and a half. I am going with the Seattle

1000
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 4: Seahawks plus two and a half, the Vegas Raiders plus one,

1001
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:46,759
Speaker 4: and the Pittsburgh Steelers plus five and a half. And

1002
00:46:46,880 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 4: that concludes our Week eleven Sunday six pack presented by

1003
00:46:50,520 --> 00:46:54,959
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1004
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1005
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1008
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1009
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1012
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1015
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:39,959
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1016
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 4: Action ten. That's act Ion one zero. Cheers all right

1017
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 4: for it's time, four hour week even coaches pep talk?

1018
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:53,279
Speaker 4: All right, stuck for today's coaches pep Talk, We're going

1019
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:56,520
Speaker 4: with al Pacino from his Oscar winning role in the

1020
00:47:56,680 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 4: nineteen ninety two film Scent of a Woman. I mean this,

1021
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:05,120
Speaker 4: I kind of wish we were dedicatingdainst to Urban Meyer,

1022
00:48:05,480 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 4: but I think I got to dedicate this one of

1023
00:48:07,200 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 4: Robert salad Man. For the Jets, you have a winnable

1024
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,799
Speaker 4: game at home against the Dolphins this week. I don't

1025
00:48:13,840 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 4: know anymore with what's going on. It seems like the

1026
00:48:16,040 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 4: Jets are just cursed, like they're the new Browns, Like

1027
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:20,800
Speaker 4: everything they do nothing works out. You know, sala is

1028
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:22,480
Speaker 4: supposed to be a defensive guy. The team has given

1029
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 4: up forty four points a game. The future of your

1030
00:48:25,320 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 4: wide receiving court is playing behind keyw and Cole, even

1031
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 4: though he catches a touchdown every week. Elijah Moore is

1032
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,799
Speaker 4: their fourth receiver in terms of routes run every week,

1033
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,680
Speaker 4: kew and Cole is getting more. Denzel Mims, another promising receiver,

1034
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,960
Speaker 4: barely plays. You know, every quarterback that you put in

1035
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 4: that offense that's not your future franchise quarterback plays better

1036
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:47,239
Speaker 4: in that offense. But yet you didn't get an experienced

1037
00:48:47,239 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 4: guy to back them up until Joe Flacco mid season.

1038
00:48:51,080 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 4: And even though every veteran with any more experience than

1039
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 4: a rookie, you know, Mike White, Josh Johnson plays better

1040
00:48:57,680 --> 00:48:59,320
Speaker 4: in this offense. Like, I don't know what's going on

1041
00:48:59,440 --> 00:49:02,600
Speaker 4: with the Jets, but man, I think Robert Salin really

1042
00:49:02,680 --> 00:49:04,920
Speaker 4: needs to kind of get it together here because it's

1043
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 4: not looking better than Adam Gase.

1044
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 2: And that's saying something.

1045
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 3: What gentlemen, when the shit hits the fan, some guys

1046
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,920
Speaker 3: run and some guys stay. And if you think you're

1047
00:49:16,960 --> 00:49:20,840
Speaker 3: preparing these minnos for manhood, you better think again.

1048
00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:22,320
Speaker 1: What a sham?

1049
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:25,320
Speaker 4: What kind of a show you guys putting on here today?

1050
00:49:25,920 --> 00:49:27,560
Speaker 1: He gave Erbin Meyer a lot of the pep offs.

1051
00:49:27,560 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 1: He's covered three or four by the way, Yeah, three

1052
00:49:29,600 --> 00:49:32,000
Speaker 1: and one against the spread in his last four So

1053
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 1: maybe this will helps out. Yeah. In regards to that,

1054
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:36,360
Speaker 1: it's a master of defense is a mess. In regards

1055
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 1: to that Jets Dolphins game, we could just talk about

1056
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 1: it right now before best the rest. The Dolphins are

1057
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 1: gonna blitz. They're the one of the most aggressive defenses

1058
00:49:44,960 --> 00:49:47,120
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Joe Flacco is starting. I don't know

1059
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 1: how that's gonna end well with especially considering the Jets

1060
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:52,279
Speaker 1: offensive line. It's not in good shape. On the other side,

1061
00:49:52,320 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 1: the Jets strengths are defensive line, so maybe they can

1062
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: get a lot of pressure. I gainst a really bad

1063
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:01,920
Speaker 1: Miami offensive line division unders this late in the year

1064
00:50:02,520 --> 00:50:04,560
Speaker 1: after Week ten have been profitable. I don't hate that

1065
00:50:04,719 --> 00:50:07,040
Speaker 1: under Flacco's gonna if he can get shots off that

1066
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:08,919
Speaker 1: he's gonna take just deep shots, and then it comes

1067
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,400
Speaker 1: down to like are they gonna call PI because you

1068
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 1: know the Dolphins are gonna play very aggressive, but it

1069
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:18,080
Speaker 1: could end really poorly for Joe Flacco. Here if I

1070
00:50:18,120 --> 00:50:19,719
Speaker 1: had about the game, I've been under But man, what

1071
00:50:20,040 --> 00:50:22,480
Speaker 1: a gross game. And you have to worry about the Dolphins.

1072
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 1: They feel themselves a little bit too much after that

1073
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:26,680
Speaker 1: Ravens game. Do they show up here for the Jets?

1074
00:50:26,719 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 1: But gross game? Solid needs a win. I think it's

1075
00:50:29,680 --> 00:50:31,920
Speaker 1: good to get get the pep talk to him here.

1076
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,399
Speaker 2: All right, let's get into our favorite total the week.

1077
00:50:35,840 --> 00:50:36,439
Speaker 2: All right, stuck.

1078
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:39,800
Speaker 4: So we are eleven weeks, well, ten weeks into the

1079
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 4: season or in week eleven now, so we have kind

1080
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 4: of seen total start to stabilize a little bit. You know,

1081
00:50:45,719 --> 00:50:47,719
Speaker 4: things are going a little bit back to normal from

1082
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 4: last year, you know, with the crowds and the penalties

1083
00:50:51,680 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 4: kind of normalizing a little bit. So I feel like

1084
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:56,279
Speaker 4: we've had a little more success with totals than when

1085
00:50:56,440 --> 00:50:57,880
Speaker 4: I think of like one point last.

1086
00:50:57,719 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 2: Year, it was just like a crap shoot. Every week.

1087
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:01,880
Speaker 4: It felt like, yeah, the totals. But I'll start us

1088
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:03,439
Speaker 4: off here. Since you went first on the six pack,

1089
00:51:03,640 --> 00:51:05,960
Speaker 4: there are two totals I like this week. One I

1090
00:51:06,040 --> 00:51:08,320
Speaker 4: posted in the app, You're probably not gonna get a

1091
00:51:08,400 --> 00:51:11,840
Speaker 4: good number anymore because there's a lot of issues with

1092
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:14,400
Speaker 4: the Lions and the Browns and the health and the

1093
00:51:14,480 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 4: weather and the quarterbacks. So that one, if you can

1094
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 4: get it, you know, up to forty three, I would

1095
00:51:19,719 --> 00:51:23,399
Speaker 4: still take that under. But for this show, I'm going

1096
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:25,440
Speaker 4: with my other favorite total of the week, and that

1097
00:51:25,640 --> 00:51:30,800
Speaker 4: is Washington Carolina under forty three and a half. So

1098
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:35,120
Speaker 4: I love this under because on one side you have Carolina.

1099
00:51:35,160 --> 00:51:36,719
Speaker 4: And I've been saying this since early in the year

1100
00:51:37,160 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 4: and people kind of like laughed it off. I was like,

1101
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:42,439
Speaker 4: Carolina's defense is gonna be a defense that nobody wants

1102
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,399
Speaker 4: to see. By the time this year ends, we're gonna

1103
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 4: be thinking of it as like a top five, top seven,

1104
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:50,520
Speaker 4: top eight unit. And lo and behold, they're number three

1105
00:51:50,560 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 4: in defensive DVOA.

1106
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 2: They can man up.

1107
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 4: They will blitz because they can man up, So you know,

1108
00:51:58,200 --> 00:52:00,120
Speaker 4: they can get home at four if they really need to,

1109
00:52:00,400 --> 00:52:02,319
Speaker 4: I think, but they don't always have to because they

1110
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:02,799
Speaker 4: can man up.

1111
00:52:02,800 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 2: They can blitz Washington. What's what's to do with Washington?

1112
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 4: They have one good receiver, Taylor Heinike first three classic

1113
00:52:10,200 --> 00:52:15,000
Speaker 4: first three quarterback, exactly the type of offense that you

1114
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:19,239
Speaker 4: do not want against Carolina. So what's Washington probably gonna do.

1115
00:52:19,600 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 4: They probably just try to run it a lot. You know,

1116
00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:24,360
Speaker 4: Antonio Gibson coming off a game winning touchdown his second

1117
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,440
Speaker 4: of that of that contest against Tampa Bay, a tough

1118
00:52:27,520 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 4: run defense, Washington's probably gonna say, hey, we could probably

1119
00:52:30,280 --> 00:52:30,520
Speaker 4: run it.

1120
00:52:31,480 --> 00:52:32,360
Speaker 2: That'll bleed the clock.

1121
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:35,960
Speaker 4: On the other side, you have Carolina and they realized

1122
00:52:36,440 --> 00:52:39,279
Speaker 4: like a month ago that they weren't gonna be at

1123
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 4: their best throwing the ball. Over the last four weeks,

1124
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,959
Speaker 4: they are running on fifty four percent of their early downs.

1125
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:47,600
Speaker 4: That's fourth most in the weegue. They've had games with

1126
00:52:47,680 --> 00:52:51,000
Speaker 4: over forty rushing attempts over the last month that we've

1127
00:52:51,040 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 4: seen it. Now, you know every week that's the plan.

1128
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 4: With Cam Newton, that's only gonna increase more because when

1129
00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 4: he drops back, he's viable to run on scrambles. They're

1130
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:01,360
Speaker 4: gonna design more run from the quarterback than they did

1131
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 4: with PJ. Walker or Sam Darnold. So you're gonna get

1132
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 4: a run heavy game plan for Carolina regardless like they're

1133
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 4: not gonna try to come out and throw in Cam

1134
00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:12,880
Speaker 4: Newton's first start. But Washington, yes, I know they're front seven,

1135
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:17,600
Speaker 4: is decimated, but there's still number sticks in run defense DVA,

1136
00:53:18,040 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 4: number two in run defense early down success rate allowed.

1137
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:25,120
Speaker 4: So yes, the losses of Young and Sweat are gonna hurt,

1138
00:53:25,160 --> 00:53:28,200
Speaker 4: but you're talking about in a week unit, so losing

1139
00:53:28,239 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 4: those guys, you're still probably a little bit above average.

1140
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:34,680
Speaker 2: And either way, the clock is running.

1141
00:53:34,960 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 4: So both of these teams gonna have to go, I think,

1142
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:40,320
Speaker 4: drive the full length of the field to score points.

1143
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:42,879
Speaker 4: Both of these teams are gonna be interested in keeping

1144
00:53:42,920 --> 00:53:46,239
Speaker 4: it on the ground, outdoor game. Wait in the year,

1145
00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 4: give me the Carolina Washington under forty three and a half.

1146
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:54,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, and there's a lot of familiarity here with Rivera

1147
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 1: and Newton as well. Ravera, by the way, has been

1148
00:53:57,040 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 1: great as an underdog. And I do think this line

1149
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:00,520
Speaker 1: is a little inflated based on what we saw last week.

1150
00:54:00,520 --> 00:54:02,600
Speaker 1: I mean I didn't I wasn't surprised at Carolina one.

1151
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 1: I was more surprised at Washington won. And this this

1152
00:54:05,280 --> 00:54:08,239
Speaker 1: line is taken off of past three. I think there

1153
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:10,400
Speaker 1: is some value in Washington. Yes, sweat, you don't have

1154
00:54:10,480 --> 00:54:13,520
Speaker 1: sweat and young now off the edge. But I think

1155
00:54:13,560 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 1: that Washington secondary, which was so lost, figured out some

1156
00:54:16,760 --> 00:54:18,800
Speaker 1: things over the by That was, you know, one of

1157
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 1: the things I said before the Bibles. Maybe their secondary

1158
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:24,200
Speaker 1: can get a little better. Their coverage and communication looked

1159
00:54:24,200 --> 00:54:26,680
Speaker 1: a lot better against Tampa Bay, which is a good

1160
00:54:26,760 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 1: sign here. Yeah, I don't think that you're gonna get

1161
00:54:29,280 --> 00:54:33,360
Speaker 1: many big plays from either passing offense. So I agree

1162
00:54:33,400 --> 00:54:38,080
Speaker 1: with this under for my favorite total. I kind of

1163
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:41,279
Speaker 1: liked it. Yeah, the ones that popped Miami under was

1164
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:46,399
Speaker 1: a consideration. Same with this under that you just went

1165
00:54:46,480 --> 00:54:49,680
Speaker 1: with it. Didn't mind the Vegas over which I mentioned.

1166
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:52,879
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna go with the Colts and Bill's under

1167
00:54:52,960 --> 00:54:57,080
Speaker 1: fifty at BETMGM. Look, the Colts are they play a

1168
00:54:57,160 --> 00:54:59,120
Speaker 1: style that's conduced unders. They want to run the ball.

1169
00:54:59,520 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 1: They are the slowest team in the NFL from a

1170
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:06,360
Speaker 1: pace perspective of neutral situations. The Bills aren't necessarily that

1171
00:55:07,000 --> 00:55:08,719
Speaker 1: they want to play fast. They want to throw the

1172
00:55:08,760 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 1: ball a time. And whereas the Colts have an elite

1173
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:13,960
Speaker 1: run defense, their secondary can be a bit vulnerable, but

1174
00:55:13,960 --> 00:55:16,280
Speaker 1: they don't give up explosive passing plays. They keep everything

1175
00:55:16,320 --> 00:55:18,400
Speaker 1: in front of them. Same thing with the Bills. The

1176
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 1: Bills are top three explosive pass defense as well, So

1177
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:23,720
Speaker 1: I don't think you see a ton of explosive players.

1178
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:25,880
Speaker 1: I think you see Indianapolis. Keep this on the ground

1179
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 1: and they can have a little bit of success against

1180
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 1: Buffalo there. That's a good thing. Keep the sticks moving,

1181
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:33,000
Speaker 1: they have the ball, they're going to be playing slow,

1182
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:36,120
Speaker 1: keep that clock moving. There also can be some wind

1183
00:55:36,200 --> 00:55:38,800
Speaker 1: here in Buffalo and some rain, so you could have

1184
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:41,000
Speaker 1: some weather assistance, which kind of put me over the

1185
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:45,200
Speaker 1: top here on Sunday in the Orchard Park. And when

1186
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:46,960
Speaker 1: I look at the Bills, the Bills have played nobody

1187
00:55:47,000 --> 00:55:48,840
Speaker 1: all year. They've had one of the easiest schedules in

1188
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:51,920
Speaker 1: the NFL. Their offense has been off. Though their offensive

1189
00:55:51,920 --> 00:55:54,560
Speaker 1: been off against bad defenses. There's something that's just not

1190
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:58,360
Speaker 1: right with Josh all right now. Their defense again hasn't

1191
00:55:58,400 --> 00:56:00,560
Speaker 1: played great competition, but it's been a I mean that

1192
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:02,400
Speaker 1: you can adjust for opponent. They've been the best defense

1193
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:04,480
Speaker 1: in the NFL. This is the defense I believed in

1194
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 1: coming into the year. This is the defense I think

1195
00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:08,560
Speaker 1: is elite. This is the defense that I trust enough

1196
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:10,520
Speaker 1: for the Bills to be my only Super Bowl future.

1197
00:56:10,920 --> 00:56:13,320
Speaker 1: So I think that the defense is legit. I do

1198
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:15,759
Speaker 1: think that the offense has some issues right now that

1199
00:56:15,800 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 1: they still have to work out. So this isn't the

1200
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 1: offense that we saw at the end of last year

1201
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:23,480
Speaker 1: when they played and that offense was just humming. So

1202
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:26,359
Speaker 1: I think the defense plays. The offense is still gonna

1203
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:28,560
Speaker 1: the Colts are gonna make them drive it down the field,

1204
00:56:28,600 --> 00:56:30,880
Speaker 1: not give up exposed to pass plays, and the Bills

1205
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:33,279
Speaker 1: right now Allen just isn't accurate enough to sustain too

1206
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:35,800
Speaker 1: many drives. So I think there's this sets up for

1207
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 1: an under whether we'll only help.

1208
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:39,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is what we talked about earlier,

1209
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 4: right opponents are making these elite offenses or in theory,

1210
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 4: these elite offenses drive the length of the field.

1211
00:56:46,120 --> 00:56:47,320
Speaker 2: That's what the Coats are going to try to do.

1212
00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:50,399
Speaker 4: And then the Bills, you know, going into last week,

1213
00:56:50,440 --> 00:56:52,960
Speaker 4: all the talk was about the reason we've been struggling

1214
00:56:53,120 --> 00:56:55,600
Speaker 4: is we got to establish the run game. We haven't

1215
00:56:55,640 --> 00:56:58,719
Speaker 4: established a run game, and you play the Jets and

1216
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 4: it works brilliantly, and now you play a team that's

1217
00:57:02,200 --> 00:57:04,400
Speaker 4: you know, top of the league and run defense. So

1218
00:57:05,040 --> 00:57:06,640
Speaker 4: but you're coming off of a game where you got

1219
00:57:06,760 --> 00:57:09,839
Speaker 4: right because you ran the ball. So are they going

1220
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:10,680
Speaker 4: to abandon that now?

1221
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 2: I don't think so. So Yeah, I think there's a

1222
00:57:13,120 --> 00:57:15,319
Speaker 2: lot of factors that are kind of playing into this one.

1223
00:57:15,760 --> 00:57:17,920
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, this Bill's offense when you don't adjust

1224
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 1: for opponent top three in the NFL, but they played

1225
00:57:22,080 --> 00:57:25,320
Speaker 1: one of the easiest schedules of pass and run defense

1226
00:57:25,320 --> 00:57:27,800
Speaker 1: in the NFL. You would just look at DVLA middle

1227
00:57:27,800 --> 00:57:29,840
Speaker 1: of the pack offense right now, this in offense is

1228
00:57:29,920 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 1: absolutely elite. Last year top three adjusted for opponent. Now

1229
00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:35,240
Speaker 1: they're middle of the pack. So I think that the

1230
00:57:35,320 --> 00:57:36,800
Speaker 1: Colts can do enough to slow them down. And when

1231
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 1: the Colts at the ball are going to run it,

1232
00:57:38,160 --> 00:57:40,240
Speaker 1: Glass can be running. They're going to take their time.

1233
00:57:40,480 --> 00:57:42,120
Speaker 1: And I trust this Bills defense.

1234
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:45,560
Speaker 2: Give me the under Yeah, I'll be rooting for you.

1235
00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:49,320
Speaker 2: Four Carson Wentz to not shovel the ball in his

1236
00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 2: own end zone.

1237
00:57:50,600 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 1: To the Bills, we could take somehow, we could take

1238
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:56,000
Speaker 1: some shovels though at the inside the five of the

1239
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:57,120
Speaker 1: of the Bills though, to.

1240
00:57:57,160 --> 00:57:59,680
Speaker 2: The Bills, that will help, right, Yeah, you wanted ad

1241
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 2: that into this yield.

1242
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:03,080
Speaker 4: Unfortunately, she's like Carson Wentz is barely thrown any picks,

1243
00:58:03,080 --> 00:58:05,000
Speaker 4: but everyone he's thrown has been just disastrous.

1244
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I don't know, is it the same wins

1245
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:08,840
Speaker 2: or is it not? I don't know, But all right,

1246
00:58:08,920 --> 00:58:10,160
Speaker 2: that's gonna wrap it.

1247
00:58:10,280 --> 00:58:14,920
Speaker 4: For our favorite total of the week, stuckygoing Coach Bill's

1248
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:19,240
Speaker 4: under fifty. I'm going football team Panthers under forty three

1249
00:58:19,440 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 4: and a half. Now it's time for our favorite teaser

1250
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:23,240
Speaker 4: of the week.

1251
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1252
00:58:29,000 --> 00:58:41,360
Speaker 5: Don't don't change, don't tease me to please, are stuck?

1253
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 4: I mean, we could make the short because we're going

1254
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:45,920
Speaker 4: with the same teaser. This is the same teaser I

1255
00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:47,920
Speaker 4: went with last week. It actually didn't hit, but I

1256
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 4: mean this is the teaser of teasers. It's the perfect spot.

1257
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:53,960
Speaker 4: So just just tell tell everybody what we're doing here.

1258
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:58,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, two games are talked about, Minnesota and Seattle. Tease

1259
00:58:58,120 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 1: them both from two and a half up to eight

1260
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:02,920
Speaker 1: and a half. That's the ideal teaser, teasing up an

1261
00:59:02,960 --> 00:59:05,320
Speaker 1: underdog at two and a half, one hundred dog over three, four,

1262
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:08,520
Speaker 1: six and seven. And here's two nuggets and we'll just

1263
00:59:08,560 --> 00:59:10,680
Speaker 1: we already talk about these games. Minnesota has yet to

1264
00:59:10,760 --> 00:59:12,760
Speaker 1: lose a game by more than one possession this year.

1265
00:59:13,320 --> 00:59:16,280
Speaker 1: And Russell Wilson in the thirty six games, if he's

1266
00:59:16,360 --> 00:59:18,560
Speaker 1: been an underdog when he started and finished the game,

1267
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 1: he's covered a six point teaser any underdog number thirty

1268
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 1: three out of thirty six times. That includes a twenty

1269
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:28,440
Speaker 1: one and two record as an underdog between one and

1270
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:31,320
Speaker 1: three points when teased up. So yeah, now much the

1271
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 1: cover years. Great spot for both, and we think there's

1272
00:59:33,760 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 1: value in both anyway. And now you're getting eight and

1273
00:59:35,960 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 1: a half. So yeah, Viking Seahawk's not much more to

1274
00:59:38,400 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 1: talk about there.

1275
00:59:39,560 --> 00:59:41,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess I'll end it with this if you're

1276
00:59:41,520 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 2: listening to this podcast.

1277
00:59:43,320 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 4: As we mentioned, we would love obviously to get the

1278
00:59:45,800 --> 00:59:48,439
Speaker 4: threes in the Minnesota in the Seattle game. Probably won't

1279
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:49,920
Speaker 4: get it, but this is a way to kind of

1280
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 4: lock in value either way if you can.

1281
00:59:51,840 --> 00:59:53,000
Speaker 2: You could tease that now.

1282
00:59:52,920 --> 00:59:55,000
Speaker 4: And then you can wait a little bit because the

1283
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:56,080
Speaker 4: Packers are public team.

1284
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:56,640
Speaker 2: I'll get you know.

1285
00:59:56,720 --> 00:59:58,280
Speaker 4: That's one thing with the Packers, like I think they're

1286
00:59:58,280 --> 01:00:00,960
Speaker 4: getting something like eighty percent of the bets as we

1287
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:03,440
Speaker 4: look early in the week, So I could see the

1288
01:00:03,520 --> 01:00:07,440
Speaker 4: Packers maybe getting to three Seahawks, probably not, but either way,

1289
01:00:07,600 --> 01:00:10,120
Speaker 4: you lock in the teaser, you know, because at nine,

1290
01:00:10,400 --> 01:00:12,200
Speaker 4: you know if it goes to three. Now you're just

1291
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:14,320
Speaker 4: interested in the spread anyway, So you can lock in

1292
01:00:14,440 --> 01:00:16,360
Speaker 4: the teaser, you know, plus two and a half or

1293
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 4: both and kind of waited out of it, but and

1294
01:00:18,200 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 4: not feel like, you know it could go either way

1295
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:21,840
Speaker 4: on you like you're gonna walck in value some one

1296
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:22,440
Speaker 4: way or another.

1297
01:00:23,000 --> 01:00:25,200
Speaker 1: So that's yeah, and you can lock that in before

1298
01:00:26,000 --> 01:00:29,240
Speaker 1: potentially Kyler Murray gets ruled out and then all of

1299
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:31,760
Speaker 1: a sudden that line Seattle is a favorite and you're

1300
01:00:31,800 --> 01:00:33,840
Speaker 1: not only not getting three, you're not you're not getting

1301
01:00:33,880 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 1: that teaser option to get over seven.

1302
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:39,600
Speaker 2: Absolutely all right. So that's uh, that was a quick

1303
01:00:39,640 --> 01:00:40,280
Speaker 2: teaser segment.

1304
01:00:40,360 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 4: But we're both going Seattle two and a half to

1305
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:44,800
Speaker 4: eight and a half against the Cardinals as a home

1306
01:00:44,880 --> 01:00:46,880
Speaker 4: dog and the Vikings two and a half to eight

1307
01:00:46,880 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 4: and a half against the Packers as.

1308
01:00:49,320 --> 01:00:51,640
Speaker 2: A home dog. All right, let's go to our money

1309
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:52,960
Speaker 2: line underdog parlot.

1310
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:59,320
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

1311
01:01:00,080 --> 01:01:02,960
Speaker 3: It's time for the money line parlay.

1312
01:01:03,640 --> 01:01:06,120
Speaker 4: All right, no luck last week, but we're still five

1313
01:01:06,200 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 4: to ten on the season, and even better than that

1314
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:09,880
Speaker 4: if you just take all of our money line picks,

1315
01:01:09,920 --> 01:01:12,560
Speaker 4: I think we're over fifty percent. So been a very

1316
01:01:12,640 --> 01:01:15,920
Speaker 4: profitable year for anyone tailing these moneyline dogs.

1317
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:17,880
Speaker 2: Where are you going? Four week?

1318
01:01:17,880 --> 01:01:20,120
Speaker 1: Go even game we're gonna talked about. I'm gonna go

1319
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 1: with the Steelers, classic RaRo spot. Tomlin has been great

1320
01:01:25,280 --> 01:01:27,640
Speaker 1: in these spots. Also as an underdog against teams with

1321
01:01:27,680 --> 01:01:31,280
Speaker 1: a winning record. This is ridiculous. He's this is not

1322
01:01:31,400 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 1: against the spread, this is straight up on the money

1323
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:38,000
Speaker 1: line as an underdog. He's twenty five and fourteen straight

1324
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:41,800
Speaker 1: up as an underdog. That's sixty four percent. That's pretty

1325
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:43,920
Speaker 1: much all you need to know. Classic Rara spot and

1326
01:01:44,280 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 1: a lot of uncertainty. But who's playing who's not, which

1327
01:01:46,320 --> 01:01:50,560
Speaker 1: I think always you know, increases variance and adds some

1328
01:01:50,720 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 1: more intrigue to the money line dog here. But yeah,

1329
01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:57,880
Speaker 1: twenty five at fourteen as an underdog on the money line,

1330
01:01:58,240 --> 01:02:00,240
Speaker 1: and we'll just take a look here when he he's

1331
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:04,640
Speaker 1: getting four or more points on the money line, he's

1332
01:02:04,720 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 1: nine and eight. He wins more times than he loses

1333
01:02:06,960 --> 01:02:07,440
Speaker 1: straight up.

1334
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:10,600
Speaker 2: Br y'all get in today. You ain't new to us

1335
01:02:10,680 --> 01:02:13,240
Speaker 2: no more, now, you know what I mean, dominate this

1336
01:02:13,280 --> 01:02:16,360
Speaker 2: football game. We talk about this on this podcast.

1337
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:18,920
Speaker 4: It's like it's funny because on the one side, you know,

1338
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:22,000
Speaker 4: we're analytically savvy, and so you know a lot of

1339
01:02:22,040 --> 01:02:23,800
Speaker 4: these like coaches that have been around for a while,

1340
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:26,360
Speaker 4: it seems like we end up betting them because that's

1341
01:02:26,400 --> 01:02:28,000
Speaker 4: what they're that's what they're good at. It's it might

1342
01:02:28,080 --> 01:02:30,720
Speaker 4: they might not be the most analytically savvy, but as

1343
01:02:30,880 --> 01:02:33,320
Speaker 4: motivators getting their team ready for games.

1344
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:35,080
Speaker 2: Where no one believes in them and it's us against

1345
01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 2: the world.

1346
01:02:35,880 --> 01:02:37,680
Speaker 4: Uh, you know, we at least expect them to kind

1347
01:02:37,720 --> 01:02:41,640
Speaker 4: of have a good game, you know, Carol Zimmer, Tomlin, Peyton,

1348
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:42,520
Speaker 4: Uh Peyton.

1349
01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:44,520
Speaker 2: I mean Peyton's pretty well expected regardless.

1350
01:02:44,560 --> 01:02:46,920
Speaker 4: But you know, it's like these coaches, this is kind

1351
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:49,440
Speaker 4: of how you have to bet these coaches in these spots.

1352
01:02:49,520 --> 01:02:51,680
Speaker 2: So I've been waiting a while for this.

1353
01:02:51,760 --> 01:02:54,400
Speaker 4: I don't think we've gotten this all year, but we

1354
01:02:54,560 --> 01:02:58,200
Speaker 4: get to parlay a Tomlin spot with a Peyton spot.

1355
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:02,280
Speaker 4: Sean Payton and the Saints plus one oh five in

1356
01:03:02,440 --> 01:03:05,080
Speaker 4: Philly are gonna be my money line dog Listen, I

1357
01:03:05,120 --> 01:03:07,600
Speaker 4: think the Eagles actually match up decently well with the Saints.

1358
01:03:08,440 --> 01:03:11,240
Speaker 4: You know, the Egles have been decent against both Man

1359
01:03:11,320 --> 01:03:14,320
Speaker 4: and Zona on offense. Hurts can run and maybe take

1360
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 4: the Saints out of some of their man coverage looks.

1361
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:19,360
Speaker 4: But you still have, you know, the potential to lockdown

1362
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:22,560
Speaker 4: Devonte Smith, who's been going off these last couple of games.

1363
01:03:22,960 --> 01:03:24,920
Speaker 2: Now, you're gonna stop the Eagles run. And that's what

1364
01:03:24,920 --> 01:03:25,360
Speaker 2: they've been doing.

1365
01:03:25,400 --> 01:03:27,760
Speaker 4: They've been running two thirds of the time on early

1366
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:31,720
Speaker 4: downs over the last three three games. And the Saints

1367
01:03:31,720 --> 01:03:33,480
Speaker 4: are number one and run defense. They allow under three

1368
01:03:33,520 --> 01:03:36,200
Speaker 4: yards to carry a running backs. The Eagles resurgence has

1369
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:39,000
Speaker 4: come because they realize, oh wait, you know, we could

1370
01:03:39,040 --> 01:03:41,880
Speaker 4: actually run the ball, and we probably should because our

1371
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:45,000
Speaker 4: defense is kind of shaky and we need to you know,

1372
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:47,200
Speaker 4: but our quarterback can make things happen. And by time,

1373
01:03:47,200 --> 01:03:49,920
Speaker 4: if we get them in manageable down and distance situations, well,

1374
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:52,040
Speaker 4: the Saints aren't gonna let them do that. You just

1375
01:03:52,080 --> 01:03:54,320
Speaker 4: don't run on the Saints. So it creates a whole

1376
01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:56,960
Speaker 4: different game where I think the Saints can hang around.

1377
01:03:57,480 --> 01:04:00,600
Speaker 4: And you want to talk about crazy moneyline stats, underdog.

1378
01:04:01,040 --> 01:04:04,480
Speaker 4: Since twenty eighteen, Sean Payton and the Saints have been

1379
01:04:04,480 --> 01:04:08,560
Speaker 4: an underdog fourteen times. They've won eleven. They're eleven and

1380
01:04:08,680 --> 01:04:10,000
Speaker 4: three as a money.

1381
01:04:09,800 --> 01:04:12,000
Speaker 1: Wine hund underdog God underdog God.

1382
01:04:12,160 --> 01:04:14,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, So we're not getting as sexy of a

1383
01:04:14,840 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 4: number as your plus one ninety with Pittsburgh, but we're

1384
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:20,480
Speaker 4: getting the plus one oh five here we get to.

1385
01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:21,240
Speaker 2: Parlay the two.

1386
01:04:21,760 --> 01:04:24,760
Speaker 4: It comes out to a payout of four point nine

1387
01:04:24,800 --> 01:04:27,000
Speaker 4: to five x, so just under five x. So if

1388
01:04:27,040 --> 01:04:29,120
Speaker 4: you put one hundred dollars bet in, you get back

1389
01:04:29,360 --> 01:04:32,040
Speaker 4: five hundred and ninety four fifty according to our Action

1390
01:04:32,320 --> 01:04:36,240
Speaker 4: Network parlay calculator and just some more stats real quick

1391
01:04:36,400 --> 01:04:40,720
Speaker 4: on Sean Payton awful loss as an underdog straight up,

1392
01:04:40,760 --> 01:04:42,800
Speaker 4: he wins more than he loses. He's fifteen and fourteen

1393
01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:45,600
Speaker 4: as a moneyline dog from week three on, So first

1394
01:04:45,640 --> 01:04:47,600
Speaker 4: couple weeks of the season, you know, the market isn't

1395
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:49,840
Speaker 4: quite as as accurate all the time, so you want

1396
01:04:49,880 --> 01:04:51,880
Speaker 4: to take out some of those. But week three on

1397
01:04:52,120 --> 01:04:53,960
Speaker 4: as a money wine underdog, he wins more often than

1398
01:04:54,000 --> 01:04:56,920
Speaker 4: he loses. He's thirty two and twenty nine fifty three percent.

1399
01:04:57,200 --> 01:04:59,400
Speaker 4: Oh and by the way, New Orleans is the better team.

1400
01:04:59,400 --> 01:05:03,240
Speaker 4: According to d they're eight phillies fifteenth. Remember that is

1401
01:05:03,280 --> 01:05:05,720
Speaker 4: schedule adjusted for what it's worth. So a lot of

1402
01:05:05,800 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 4: factors pointing here to New Orleans being able to pull

1403
01:05:08,560 --> 01:05:11,040
Speaker 4: out the upset and we get to parlay the two

1404
01:05:12,120 --> 01:05:15,240
Speaker 4: underdog gods in Mike tom Win and tem Payton.

1405
01:05:15,320 --> 01:05:17,320
Speaker 2: So let's do it all right, So that's going to

1406
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:19,160
Speaker 2: do it for our moneyline underdog parlay.

1407
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:21,880
Speaker 4: As a recap, Stuck is going with the Steerers plus

1408
01:05:22,000 --> 01:05:24,920
Speaker 4: one ninety at the Los Angeles Chargers, and I'm going

1409
01:05:24,960 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 4: with the Saints plus one oh five at Philadelphia.

1410
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 6: The Action Network podcast is proudly presented by bet MGM,

1411
01:05:35,120 --> 01:05:38,160
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01:05:38,280 --> 01:05:41,280
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01:05:55,160 --> 01:05:58,520
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01:05:58,600 --> 01:05:59,360
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01:06:00,800 --> 01:06:02,960
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01:06:03,120 --> 01:06:06,800
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01:06:23,560 --> 01:06:26,760
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01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:29,600
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1429
01:06:30,120 --> 01:06:32,760
Speaker 6: Most be twenty one or older and physically located in Michigan,

1430
01:06:32,880 --> 01:06:36,840
Speaker 6: New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, Nevada,

1431
01:06:36,960 --> 01:06:40,600
Speaker 6: or Pennsylvania. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem call one eight

1432
01:06:40,680 --> 01:06:43,400
Speaker 6: hundred five two to two forty seven hundred in Colorado

1433
01:06:43,440 --> 01:06:46,160
Speaker 6: and Nevada. One eight hundred gambler in New Jersey, Pennsylvania

1434
01:06:46,200 --> 01:06:49,160
Speaker 6: and West Virginia. One eight hundred nine with it in Indiana.

1435
01:06:49,280 --> 01:06:51,959
Speaker 6: One eight hundred two seven zero seven one one seven

1436
01:06:52,000 --> 01:06:54,520
Speaker 6: in Michigan, one eight hundred eight eight nine nine seven

1437
01:06:54,560 --> 01:06:56,800
Speaker 6: eight nine in Tennessee. One eight hundred bets off in

1438
01:06:56,840 --> 01:06:59,439
Speaker 6: Iowa or one eight eight eight five three two thirty

1439
01:06:59,480 --> 01:07:02,680
Speaker 6: five hundred in Virginia. That's sink not available in Nevana.

1440
01:07:03,000 --> 01:07:05,280
Speaker 6: Thanks so much for listening. Let's get back to the show.

1441
01:07:06,880 --> 01:07:08,400
Speaker 4: Let's get to best of the rest, which are the

1442
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:11,640
Speaker 4: games that we did not discuss in any other segment.

1443
01:07:12,120 --> 01:07:14,640
Speaker 4: So we already did talk about the Dolphins and the Jets,

1444
01:07:14,880 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 4: so I'll take that out and out of them, we

1445
01:07:16,720 --> 01:07:18,760
Speaker 4: have three other ones that we haven't really talked too

1446
01:07:18,840 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 4: much about. I'll start with Detroit at Cleveland. Cleveland's a

1447
01:07:22,080 --> 01:07:24,160
Speaker 4: ten point favorite. The total is forty four and a half.

1448
01:07:24,320 --> 01:07:26,880
Speaker 4: It's going down though, so I would still like it

1449
01:07:27,000 --> 01:07:29,800
Speaker 4: up to forty three. I really do like the under

1450
01:07:29,840 --> 01:07:32,160
Speaker 4: in this game. Both of these teams are bottom six

1451
01:07:32,240 --> 01:07:35,480
Speaker 4: and situation neutral paced. Both of these teams want to

1452
01:07:35,560 --> 01:07:39,040
Speaker 4: run the football. Lions unders have been just a cash

1453
01:07:39,120 --> 01:07:42,520
Speaker 4: cow all season long. There's six and three, winning two

1454
01:07:42,600 --> 01:07:45,440
Speaker 4: thirds of the time. You know, it's just one of

1455
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 4: those wait in the season outdoor games. You know the

1456
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:53,200
Speaker 4: home team is the favorite. Lion too bad receiving course,

1457
01:07:53,200 --> 01:07:56,720
Speaker 4: I mean people's jones, mispractice. I got hurt in practice,

1458
01:07:56,800 --> 01:07:58,680
Speaker 4: you got Anthony Schwartz is in practicing.

1459
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:01,280
Speaker 2: You know Beckham is long gone.

1460
01:08:01,360 --> 01:08:04,960
Speaker 4: I mean this could legitimately be a matchup between two

1461
01:08:05,040 --> 01:08:08,240
Speaker 4: of the worst receiving courts in the NFL at the

1462
01:08:08,280 --> 01:08:11,520
Speaker 4: wide receiver position, teams that want to run the ball.

1463
01:08:11,760 --> 01:08:13,360
Speaker 2: Lions can't figure it out a kicker.

1464
01:08:13,800 --> 01:08:15,800
Speaker 4: They just signed a guy off the Patriots practice squad,

1465
01:08:15,880 --> 01:08:18,639
Speaker 4: So we're back to kind of this Patricia situation where

1466
01:08:19,280 --> 01:08:21,559
Speaker 4: pulling guys off the Patriots and hoping it pans out. Yeah,

1467
01:08:21,600 --> 01:08:23,759
Speaker 4: that's worked real well for the Lions in the past.

1468
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:27,559
Speaker 4: So I don't expect them to score much. Whoever does score,

1469
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:29,639
Speaker 4: I expect them to have to drive down the field

1470
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:31,519
Speaker 4: and I expect the clock to run.

1471
01:08:31,680 --> 01:08:33,280
Speaker 2: So that's kind of how I'm looking at this one.

1472
01:08:33,800 --> 01:08:37,360
Speaker 4: I did bet the under at forty five, but it's

1473
01:08:37,400 --> 01:08:39,840
Speaker 4: been dropping because we might not have Jared Goff here

1474
01:08:40,120 --> 01:08:41,479
Speaker 4: and Mayfield's banged up as well.

1475
01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:44,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a good handycap. The only thing

1476
01:08:44,560 --> 01:08:46,600
Speaker 1: I'll add is that if golf doesn't go, I have

1477
01:08:46,680 --> 01:08:49,679
Speaker 1: about a one and a half point difference between him

1478
01:08:50,520 --> 01:08:54,519
Speaker 1: and Tim Boyle, who looks like is taking reps with

1479
01:08:54,560 --> 01:08:55,880
Speaker 1: the first team, even though he's been on an IR

1480
01:08:55,960 --> 01:09:01,120
Speaker 1: since the preseason over David Blough, who was his started

1481
01:09:01,160 --> 01:09:05,240
Speaker 1: games before, but hasn't done too well. Look, golf is

1482
01:09:05,320 --> 01:09:07,280
Speaker 1: not great. I hate you know that. I hate Goffin

1483
01:09:07,320 --> 01:09:10,000
Speaker 1: he is. His air yards are like negative. I think

1484
01:09:10,040 --> 01:09:12,799
Speaker 1: his areas are four yards on average, the lowest the NFL.

1485
01:09:13,240 --> 01:09:15,640
Speaker 1: He's one touchdown in four picks I think over his

1486
01:09:15,760 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 1: last five games. So you're not missing much by him

1487
01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:22,360
Speaker 1: being out of the lineup. But it's still Tim Boyle

1488
01:09:22,400 --> 01:09:24,240
Speaker 1: is still a guy who's been on URIs since the

1489
01:09:24,240 --> 01:09:28,559
Speaker 1: preseason with zero career starts and fifteen career passing yards.

1490
01:09:29,280 --> 01:09:32,040
Speaker 1: So I have there's a small drop, but it's not significant.

1491
01:09:33,360 --> 01:09:35,840
Speaker 1: No interest in the side here, but I don't mind

1492
01:09:35,880 --> 01:09:38,160
Speaker 1: that undertake yeah.

1493
01:09:37,960 --> 01:09:39,160
Speaker 2: I mean boiled the one thing.

1494
01:09:39,200 --> 01:09:41,120
Speaker 4: He probably can push it down the field more than

1495
01:09:41,280 --> 01:09:44,120
Speaker 4: he has all three. You're just hoping, though, But like

1496
01:09:44,200 --> 01:09:46,880
Speaker 4: you said, Rusty, who's he throwing it to right? And

1497
01:09:47,439 --> 01:09:49,040
Speaker 4: you just hope that he throws picks like when he's

1498
01:09:49,040 --> 01:09:50,680
Speaker 4: thrown down a field, you know, kind of you just

1499
01:09:50,960 --> 01:09:53,479
Speaker 4: as long as you know he could probably take a player,

1500
01:09:53,560 --> 01:09:56,120
Speaker 4: a big player too. I mean that's forty five, forty

1501
01:09:56,160 --> 01:09:58,840
Speaker 4: four and a half. It's a big total for two teams.

1502
01:09:58,880 --> 01:10:01,920
Speaker 4: I want to run ball like this, all right, let's

1503
01:10:01,960 --> 01:10:05,479
Speaker 4: go to Baltimore Chicago. Interested in your thoughts on this one.

1504
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:07,240
Speaker 4: I don't really have too much of a feel for this.

1505
01:10:07,360 --> 01:10:10,800
Speaker 4: After you know, Justin Fields was like kind of another

1506
01:10:10,840 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 4: guy who's kind of it's gonna change as the year progresses.

1507
01:10:13,520 --> 01:10:16,360
Speaker 2: He's going to improve a little bit. Baltimore's coming off

1508
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:17,040
Speaker 2: a flat spot.

1509
01:10:17,120 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 4: But Harbor has never really been one of those guys

1510
01:10:20,240 --> 01:10:22,040
Speaker 4: that you can bank on off a loss the way

1511
01:10:22,040 --> 01:10:23,599
Speaker 4: you can with some of these other coaches. He's only

1512
01:10:23,640 --> 01:10:26,800
Speaker 4: twenty one, twenty eight and two against the spread of

1513
01:10:27,320 --> 01:10:29,439
Speaker 4: off a losses. Then Lamar, you know, he used to

1514
01:10:29,520 --> 01:10:31,320
Speaker 4: be a guy you could bank on on the road,

1515
01:10:31,400 --> 01:10:33,439
Speaker 4: fourteen and eight against the spreading his career. The small

1516
01:10:33,479 --> 01:10:35,200
Speaker 4: sample size, so he's only one in three this year,

1517
01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:37,479
Speaker 4: So you know, I don't really have a feel for it.

1518
01:10:37,520 --> 01:10:40,200
Speaker 4: I kind of thought about the under at one point,

1519
01:10:40,320 --> 01:10:42,120
Speaker 4: but I don't know. I mean, is this kind of

1520
01:10:42,120 --> 01:10:45,040
Speaker 4: a bounce back spot for the Ravens.

1521
01:10:45,040 --> 01:10:45,439
Speaker 2: What do you think?

1522
01:10:46,040 --> 01:10:46,200
Speaker 5: Yeah?

1523
01:10:46,200 --> 01:10:48,760
Speaker 1: I mean, Harbor has always been great with extra times repair,

1524
01:10:48,840 --> 01:10:50,760
Speaker 1: So coming off if there's a night game, a little

1525
01:10:50,800 --> 01:10:53,759
Speaker 1: extra times repair, they were embarrassed. So I would expect

1526
01:10:54,040 --> 01:10:56,880
Speaker 1: a pretty good effort here. The Bears defensive injuries. It

1527
01:10:56,920 --> 01:10:59,040
Speaker 1: looks like they're gonna be a little healthier this week

1528
01:10:59,160 --> 01:11:01,680
Speaker 1: on the defensive side the ball, but it's still not

1529
01:11:01,760 --> 01:11:04,280
Speaker 1: a great defense. And look, this is a copycat league.

1530
01:11:04,280 --> 01:11:05,960
Speaker 1: I'm curious to see how many other teams try to

1531
01:11:06,000 --> 01:11:09,000
Speaker 1: do what the Dolphins did. They just were blitzing everyone

1532
01:11:09,040 --> 01:11:11,640
Speaker 1: playing cover zero. But they have pretty good corners and

1533
01:11:11,720 --> 01:11:13,800
Speaker 1: they are one of the most aggressive defenses in the NFL,

1534
01:11:13,880 --> 01:11:16,000
Speaker 1: so it wasn't too out of character. The Bears are

1535
01:11:16,040 --> 01:11:18,400
Speaker 1: the lowest blitz right in the league, and they don't

1536
01:11:18,439 --> 01:11:20,760
Speaker 1: have great corners across the board. But I'm curious to

1537
01:11:20,800 --> 01:11:23,040
Speaker 1: see if they try to copy at that the Ravens,

1538
01:11:23,080 --> 01:11:25,639
Speaker 1: who also blits a ton. That might spell bad news

1539
01:11:25,720 --> 01:11:27,920
Speaker 1: for Justin Fields, who has not been great against the

1540
01:11:27,960 --> 01:11:31,439
Speaker 1: blitz but you know, he kind of showed himself a

1541
01:11:31,520 --> 01:11:33,320
Speaker 1: lot better against the Steelers. I think this line is

1542
01:11:33,320 --> 01:11:35,280
Speaker 1: about right. Lamar Jackson was sent home with an illness

1543
01:11:35,320 --> 01:11:37,400
Speaker 1: today from practice, which is why the line came down

1544
01:11:37,400 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 1: a little bit. From all reports, it's not COVID, but

1545
01:11:40,760 --> 01:11:42,960
Speaker 1: I think this line is about right side In total

1546
01:11:44,280 --> 01:11:45,000
Speaker 1: no interest here.

1547
01:11:45,800 --> 01:11:48,479
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's kind of a tough game to handy or

1548
01:11:49,120 --> 01:11:50,720
Speaker 4: it's a tough game the handicap, but it also just

1549
01:11:50,760 --> 01:11:53,679
Speaker 4: feels like, yeah, my projectors are pretty much in line

1550
01:11:53,720 --> 01:11:56,599
Speaker 4: with what's going on here, so tough to to really.

1551
01:11:57,360 --> 01:11:59,599
Speaker 1: Sometimes it's just a line that just right, that's all.

1552
01:12:00,080 --> 01:12:01,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, we're pretty late in the season. I mean they

1553
01:12:01,720 --> 01:12:06,720
Speaker 4: should be yeap and another team that's been kind of

1554
01:12:06,800 --> 01:12:09,760
Speaker 4: up and down here going against a team that's been

1555
01:12:09,800 --> 01:12:13,120
Speaker 4: improving incrementally. San Francisco off a big win on Monday

1556
01:12:13,200 --> 01:12:15,840
Speaker 4: night against the Rams. They are six and a half

1557
01:12:15,880 --> 01:12:19,200
Speaker 4: point favorites. The totals forty five and a half. We

1558
01:12:19,320 --> 01:12:22,439
Speaker 4: actually have track some sharp action here on San francisc

1559
01:12:22,479 --> 01:12:24,160
Speaker 4: I don't know if this is another thing where they're

1560
01:12:24,160 --> 01:12:25,720
Speaker 4: trying to get it to the seven or seven and

1561
01:12:25,760 --> 01:12:27,880
Speaker 4: a half and then come back on the Jags. Seems

1562
01:12:27,920 --> 01:12:30,160
Speaker 4: like it, because usually don't see Sharks move on six

1563
01:12:30,200 --> 01:12:32,400
Speaker 4: and a half point favorites. But I mean San Francisco

1564
01:12:32,920 --> 01:12:34,760
Speaker 4: did kind of figure some things out. They think they

1565
01:12:34,960 --> 01:12:37,080
Speaker 4: kind of got back to doing what they do, which

1566
01:12:37,160 --> 01:12:39,439
Speaker 4: is run the ball. You know, they don't really need

1567
01:12:39,479 --> 01:12:42,040
Speaker 4: that third receiver in the game too much. Get Deebo

1568
01:12:42,120 --> 01:12:45,400
Speaker 4: Samuel to the ball anyway you can. You's playing more.

1569
01:12:46,680 --> 01:12:50,120
Speaker 4: They're going over the middle. Jimmy Garoppolo's kind of render

1570
01:12:50,200 --> 01:12:52,479
Speaker 4: Trey Lance like irrelevant at this point. I mean, we

1571
01:12:52,520 --> 01:12:54,360
Speaker 4: don't even we don't even see Lance in like any

1572
01:12:54,400 --> 01:12:56,320
Speaker 4: special package. Like he's not even getting the Taysom Hill

1573
01:12:56,439 --> 01:13:00,679
Speaker 4: treatment at this point. So, I mean, other, it doesn't

1574
01:13:00,680 --> 01:13:01,640
Speaker 4: seem too off for me.

1575
01:13:01,720 --> 01:13:02,599
Speaker 2: But what do you think?

1576
01:13:03,280 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I make this six and a half, so no interest.

1577
01:13:06,439 --> 01:13:08,479
Speaker 1: I do think that the forty nine ers are by

1578
01:13:08,760 --> 01:13:11,080
Speaker 1: a play on team from here on out. This isn't

1579
01:13:11,080 --> 01:13:14,439
Speaker 1: a great spot either. Like, had an emotional win, you know,

1580
01:13:14,760 --> 01:13:18,280
Speaker 1: and against the Rams and dominant fashion in prime time.

1581
01:13:18,320 --> 01:13:20,160
Speaker 1: Now they go across the country to play an out

1582
01:13:20,200 --> 01:13:24,160
Speaker 1: of conference game against a really bad team. So are

1583
01:13:24,200 --> 01:13:26,600
Speaker 1: they going to show up from the get go? You know,

1584
01:13:26,600 --> 01:13:28,479
Speaker 1: over the last few years the Pots have been better

1585
01:13:28,520 --> 01:13:30,080
Speaker 1: on the road than they have at home. But I

1586
01:13:30,160 --> 01:13:32,880
Speaker 1: think that this is this line is about right. I

1587
01:13:32,920 --> 01:13:34,680
Speaker 1: think the forty nine ers are probably going to be

1588
01:13:34,720 --> 01:13:36,760
Speaker 1: a trend a team trending in the right direction. But

1589
01:13:36,800 --> 01:13:39,479
Speaker 1: given the line here, the spot, I have no interest

1590
01:13:39,520 --> 01:13:41,840
Speaker 1: in backing here. I will be probably backing them a

1591
01:13:41,920 --> 01:13:44,400
Speaker 1: few other times the rest of the season. They were

1592
01:13:44,479 --> 01:13:46,559
Speaker 1: kind of like the anti Cardinals, and that's the reason

1593
01:13:46,600 --> 01:13:49,479
Speaker 1: they've lost both games of the Cardinals. They were running

1594
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:53,439
Speaker 1: really bad on four downs, fumbles all early on. Even

1595
01:13:53,520 --> 01:13:55,320
Speaker 1: though you know, if you look at a lot of metrics,

1596
01:13:55,400 --> 01:13:57,680
Speaker 1: this is a top ten team across the board, no

1597
01:13:58,080 --> 01:14:01,479
Speaker 1: doubt about it. So but no interest here. This is

1598
01:14:01,680 --> 01:14:03,760
Speaker 1: just books about right.

1599
01:14:04,600 --> 01:14:04,800
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1600
01:14:04,840 --> 01:14:06,920
Speaker 4: And the one thing is, you know, I know a

1601
01:14:06,960 --> 01:14:09,080
Speaker 4: lot of people are gonna say forty nine ers just

1602
01:14:09,160 --> 01:14:10,240
Speaker 4: dominated the Rams.

1603
01:14:10,920 --> 01:14:12,040
Speaker 2: This is still Urban Meyer.

1604
01:14:12,120 --> 01:14:15,040
Speaker 4: I have expressed my disdain for Urban Meyer, but he

1605
01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:16,960
Speaker 4: has the Jaguars playing more competitively.

1606
01:14:17,120 --> 01:14:17,840
Speaker 2: I will give him that.

1607
01:14:18,120 --> 01:14:20,679
Speaker 4: But this is why I wouldn't touch this games because

1608
01:14:21,479 --> 01:14:23,599
Speaker 4: I don't think you really want to play the Jaguars

1609
01:14:23,640 --> 01:14:26,360
Speaker 4: at six and a half. But I don't think you

1610
01:14:26,400 --> 01:14:28,240
Speaker 4: can play the Niners at six and a half because

1611
01:14:28,320 --> 01:14:32,200
Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan eight nineteen and one thirty percent against the

1612
01:14:32,240 --> 01:14:34,840
Speaker 4: spread as a favorite when he's not coming off the

1613
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:36,720
Speaker 4: bye week. So this is one of those spots, like

1614
01:14:36,800 --> 01:14:39,040
Speaker 4: you said, a lot of variants here. It could be

1615
01:14:39,080 --> 01:14:41,600
Speaker 4: a flat spot. You could see the penalties come It

1616
01:14:41,640 --> 01:14:43,439
Speaker 4: could be a sloppy spot. You could see those penalties

1617
01:14:43,479 --> 01:14:46,360
Speaker 4: come back and give the Jags life. The Jags may

1618
01:14:46,400 --> 01:14:49,120
Speaker 4: not show up. I mean, you know they they beat

1619
01:14:49,160 --> 01:14:53,280
Speaker 4: the Bills. They scored nine points on offense, so it's yeah,

1620
01:14:53,360 --> 01:14:53,960
Speaker 4: this is just one.

1621
01:14:54,000 --> 01:14:58,320
Speaker 2: I probably wouldn't bet what I had to. All Right,

1622
01:14:58,439 --> 01:15:00,960
Speaker 2: let's let's get to our final segment. That's our Survivor

1623
01:15:01,000 --> 01:15:02,000
Speaker 2: Pool pick of the week.

1624
01:15:09,280 --> 01:15:11,760
Speaker 1: The Survivorpool Pick of the week.

1625
01:15:13,640 --> 01:15:17,000
Speaker 4: We're combined twenty and oh we've survived ten weeks each.

1626
01:15:17,520 --> 01:15:19,080
Speaker 2: Where are you going for week eleven? All right?

1627
01:15:19,120 --> 01:15:20,640
Speaker 1: So the circle contest if you want to follow on

1628
01:15:20,680 --> 01:15:22,519
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Ravens on one of one hundred and

1629
01:15:22,600 --> 01:15:26,080
Speaker 1: seventy three left six million, winner take all six million.

1630
01:15:26,360 --> 01:15:28,280
Speaker 1: And I'm in pretty good spot because I've taken a

1631
01:15:28,320 --> 01:15:29,960
Speaker 1: lot of bad teams. The key to this whole thing

1632
01:15:30,080 --> 01:15:32,479
Speaker 1: was I took the Dolphins that week, and that was

1633
01:15:32,560 --> 01:15:35,080
Speaker 1: a carnage week, and then it enabled me to use

1634
01:15:35,120 --> 01:15:38,000
Speaker 1: the Colts another carnage week. You survived them both too,

1635
01:15:38,080 --> 01:15:41,320
Speaker 1: without even evanus the Dolphins. But this week, I'm thinking

1636
01:15:41,400 --> 01:15:44,160
Speaker 1: that a lot of people are going to use the Titans,

1637
01:15:44,400 --> 01:15:47,240
Speaker 1: especially in that and that pool. Almost every single person

1638
01:15:47,320 --> 01:15:49,360
Speaker 1: is the Titans available. I'm getting bad vibes about that

1639
01:15:49,400 --> 01:15:52,320
Speaker 1: game and the Titans always played down the competition, and

1640
01:15:52,800 --> 01:15:54,880
Speaker 1: a lot of people have already used the box. I

1641
01:15:54,920 --> 01:15:56,759
Speaker 1: would have bought the Browns. I've already used the Browns,

1642
01:15:57,160 --> 01:15:59,120
Speaker 1: So I'm going to use the box here. If you look,

1643
01:15:59,200 --> 01:16:01,599
Speaker 1: there's not a ton of you would feel comfortable using

1644
01:16:01,640 --> 01:16:05,160
Speaker 1: the The box is like week fifteen, So yeah, I'm

1645
01:16:05,160 --> 01:16:07,960
Speaker 1: gonna use I'm going to use. Tampare off two straight

1646
01:16:08,040 --> 01:16:11,559
Speaker 1: losses at home with Brady. Let's hope he's not too

1647
01:16:11,640 --> 01:16:15,280
Speaker 1: tired after his bedtime. I think that I feel pretty

1648
01:16:15,280 --> 01:16:16,519
Speaker 1: confident that Tampa will win this game.

1649
01:16:16,840 --> 01:16:18,599
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, you look at their numbers at home

1650
01:16:18,600 --> 01:16:20,200
Speaker 2: and on the road. It's a completely different story there.

1651
01:16:20,240 --> 01:16:24,000
Speaker 4: I think they're twenty six point two points better in

1652
01:16:24,120 --> 01:16:25,840
Speaker 4: terms of point differential at home this year than on

1653
01:16:25,920 --> 01:16:26,160
Speaker 4: the road.

1654
01:16:26,200 --> 01:16:28,759
Speaker 2: It's it's been just a night and day situation.

1655
01:16:28,960 --> 01:16:30,760
Speaker 4: Brady has made it clear that he wipe's playing in

1656
01:16:30,840 --> 01:16:35,400
Speaker 4: Tampa in that weather, so maybe not surprising. The guy

1657
01:16:35,560 --> 01:16:40,280
Speaker 4: is like old enough to be our dads. But yeah,

1658
01:16:40,479 --> 01:16:41,360
Speaker 4: I'm going to Cleveland here.

1659
01:16:42,160 --> 01:16:42,519
Speaker 2: Saved them.

1660
01:16:42,560 --> 01:16:45,240
Speaker 4: Didn't use him in week two. You ended up going

1661
01:16:45,280 --> 01:16:47,360
Speaker 4: with the Packers in week two when you went with

1662
01:16:47,479 --> 01:16:50,040
Speaker 4: the Browns, So I kind of It was kind of

1663
01:16:50,080 --> 01:16:51,760
Speaker 4: a situation where I was going to be a little

1664
01:16:51,800 --> 01:16:54,560
Speaker 4: cautious and perhaps use the Bucks. But they do have

1665
01:16:54,600 --> 01:16:56,720
Speaker 4: a game against the Jets later in the year, and

1666
01:16:56,800 --> 01:16:59,160
Speaker 4: then Tennessee still has the Jaguars later in the year,

1667
01:16:59,200 --> 01:17:01,000
Speaker 4: So there's a couple of spot where I can still

1668
01:17:01,000 --> 01:17:05,080
Speaker 4: see using Tampa and Tennessee, whereas Cleveland this is pretty

1669
01:17:05,160 --> 01:17:07,000
Speaker 4: much it. Like after this, there's really no other spot

1670
01:17:07,000 --> 01:17:09,320
Speaker 4: you would use Cleveland. They're going against the backup quarterback.

1671
01:17:10,000 --> 01:17:12,200
Speaker 4: It won't be pretty, but they've proven that they can

1672
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:15,640
Speaker 4: kind of do what they do running the ball. And

1673
01:17:16,040 --> 01:17:18,040
Speaker 4: you know, this isn't Belichick, it's in the Patriots. This

1674
01:17:18,160 --> 01:17:21,759
Speaker 4: is the Lions in Cleveland. Not not a big travel

1675
01:17:21,800 --> 01:17:23,640
Speaker 4: spot for the Lions, but just you know, I know

1676
01:17:23,720 --> 01:17:27,120
Speaker 4: we aired last week with the Browns, but should be

1677
01:17:27,200 --> 01:17:29,800
Speaker 4: a spot to back them here. Took the Cowboys last

1678
01:17:29,800 --> 01:17:32,439
Speaker 4: week and we saw that bounce back. So yeah, I

1679
01:17:32,520 --> 01:17:34,280
Speaker 4: just think it's a bounce back spot for Cleveland. So

1680
01:17:34,720 --> 01:17:37,160
Speaker 4: hopefully we get to eleven and o here and good

1681
01:17:37,240 --> 01:17:40,160
Speaker 4: luck in a contest man, that would be big next week.

1682
01:17:40,240 --> 01:17:42,680
Speaker 1: It's that contest you have to pick one on Thanksgiving,

1683
01:17:43,400 --> 01:17:47,040
Speaker 1: and like that's a separate week, so we'll talk about

1684
01:17:47,080 --> 01:17:48,800
Speaker 1: that next week. But I think, well, yeah, we'll have

1685
01:17:48,840 --> 01:17:50,600
Speaker 1: our podcast out by the way early next week for

1686
01:17:50,680 --> 01:17:53,160
Speaker 1: you guys. We're gonna recorded on Tuesday, so you'll have

1687
01:17:53,240 --> 01:17:56,000
Speaker 1: it before the Thanksgiving games on Wednesday. But for that

1688
01:17:56,200 --> 01:17:58,559
Speaker 1: which is the most survivals, I'm going with the Cowboys.

1689
01:17:58,600 --> 01:18:00,760
Speaker 1: That's the only choice I've had to say. It's a

1690
01:18:00,840 --> 01:18:02,439
Speaker 1: top survivor week. We'll talk about the next week, but

1691
01:18:02,479 --> 01:18:03,639
Speaker 1: pot will be out early next week.

1692
01:18:04,040 --> 01:18:04,360
Speaker 2: All right.

1693
01:18:04,400 --> 01:18:07,000
Speaker 4: That's gonna do it for the week eleven Action Network podcast.

1694
01:18:07,320 --> 01:18:09,400
Speaker 4: As a reminder, you can follow our picks on the

1695
01:18:09,439 --> 01:18:12,760
Speaker 4: award winning Action Network app. Just search for Sunday six

1696
01:18:12,880 --> 01:18:16,280
Speaker 4: pack in the apps follow feature. You can find Stucky

1697
01:18:16,880 --> 01:18:20,240
Speaker 4: on Twitter at Stucky two. You can find me at

1698
01:18:20,600 --> 01:18:23,360
Speaker 4: Chris Raybon, and you can find us at those same

1699
01:18:23,840 --> 01:18:27,000
Speaker 4: handles in the Action app.

1700
01:18:27,400 --> 01:18:29,200
Speaker 2: Be sure to check out Actionnetwork.

1701
01:18:28,680 --> 01:18:32,360
Speaker 4: Dot com for our betting content that will have the

1702
01:18:33,080 --> 01:18:36,920
Speaker 4: Sunday Night Football Steelers Chargers game written up and I'll

1703
01:18:36,960 --> 01:18:40,639
Speaker 4: do the Monday Night Bucks Giants. And you can also

1704
01:18:40,760 --> 01:18:43,400
Speaker 4: check out Fantasy Labs dot com for our DFS content,

1705
01:18:43,520 --> 01:18:45,360
Speaker 4: tools and models.

1706
01:18:45,960 --> 01:18:48,560
Speaker 2: So next time, get us your money, let go