Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: A single best idea, the single best idea in July
Speaker 2: is to avoid the summer doldrums and focus. You can
Speaker 2: focus on reading, you can focus on some of the
Speaker 2: conversations that we have. I just finished my book of
Speaker 2: the summer, Ken Rogoff's Our Dollar, Your Problem Adam posing
Speaker 2: with us today. Off of that, a great summinar coming
Speaker 2: up in September with Ken Rogoff at the Peterson Institute.
Speaker 2: But there's a lot to think about and talk about,
Speaker 2: even in the eighty five and ninety degree heat. So
Speaker 2: let us get started. Stephanie Roth at Wolf Research Optimistic
Speaker 2: Q three, optimistic Q four a real change in tone
Speaker 2: to a better economy. Here's Stephanie Roth.
Speaker 3: I mean, this has been a difficult backdrop the forecast,
Speaker 3: but I have conviction that three could be okay and
Speaker 3: then Q four could start getting better. And the reasons
Speaker 3: are we're currently now absorbing the terriff impact that should
Speaker 3: take a couple of minds unknown, which wasn't no. No.
Speaker 3: Now it's still an unknown, but less less unown than
Speaker 3: it was, so we had we're sort of pointing in
Speaker 3: our estimates in terms of what's being absorbed. We're are
Speaker 3: based on our own numbers where we've absorbed that thirty
Speaker 3: five percent of the impact. We expect that we'll see
Speaker 3: that for the next couple of months. So we still
Speaker 3: might see a sluggish brack drop through Q three Q four.
Speaker 3: That should start to inflect higher. You should start to
Speaker 3: see travel demand improve, good spending. There's a bit of
Speaker 3: an air pocket right now that should pick up. And
Speaker 3: then you start to look into twenty twenty six where
Speaker 3: fiscal stimula should have an effect on the economy, about
Speaker 3: boosting GDP by about forty point.
Speaker 2: A real nugget there where Stephanie Roth says thirty five
Speaker 2: percent of the tariff angst maybe has been unwound so far.
Speaker 2: I have no clue, but that's a good working number
Speaker 2: to move forward with Libby control, with us, with PIMCO,
Speaker 2: and later in the conversation usual Washington talk, I asked
Speaker 2: her about the America that's being left behind. Let's listen.
Speaker 4: I think that's absolutely right, and I mean, this is
Speaker 4: part of the reason why I think the majority of
Speaker 4: Americans elected President Trump is that they did feel like
Speaker 4: the sort of the establishment that the elites, the Bloomberg elites,
Speaker 4: if you will, Tom, we're you know, we're leaving the
Speaker 4: kind of the working person behind. I'm not sure if
Speaker 4: those folks feel like that. The Trump administration elites yet
Speaker 4: yet have addressed some of those concerns, particularly around cost
Speaker 4: of living. I mean, these are all, you know, kitchen
Speaker 4: table issues. These are still are the most important for voters.
Speaker 4: And I'm not that that doesn't seem to have gone
Speaker 4: away if you just look at least that's for the pulling.
Speaker 4: Take that with a grain of salt.
Speaker 2: Let me Kentrell. They're really interesting political discussions today. ConTroll
Speaker 2: with PIMCO, and thank you Wendy Schiller Brown University as well.
Speaker 2: In the midterm elections, they're out there. They're not upon us,
Speaker 2: but you know, November of twenty twenty six in some
Speaker 2: way or foreign beckons, thank you so much for your interest.
Speaker 2: On podcasts on Spotify, on Apple podcasts as well, and
Speaker 2: on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.