WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Stephanie Roth & Libby Cantrill

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>A single best idea, the single best idea in July

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<v Speaker 2>is to avoid the summer doldrums and focus. You can

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<v Speaker 2>focus on reading, you can focus on some of the

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<v Speaker 2>conversations that we have. I just finished my book of

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<v Speaker 2>the summer, Ken Rogoff's Our Dollar, Your Problem Adam posing

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<v Speaker 2>with us today. Off of that, a great summinar coming

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<v Speaker 2>up in September with Ken Rogoff at the Peterson Institute.

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<v Speaker 2>But there's a lot to think about and talk about,

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<v Speaker 2>even in the eighty five and ninety degree heat. So

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<v Speaker 2>let us get started. Stephanie Roth at Wolf Research Optimistic

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<v Speaker 2>Q three, optimistic Q four a real change in tone

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<v Speaker 2>to a better economy. Here's Stephanie Roth.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, this has been a difficult backdrop the forecast,

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<v Speaker 3>but I have conviction that three could be okay and

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<v Speaker 3>then Q four could start getting better. And the reasons

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<v Speaker 3>are we're currently now absorbing the terriff impact that should

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<v Speaker 3>take a couple of minds unknown, which wasn't no. No.

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<v Speaker 3>Now it's still an unknown, but less less unown than

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<v Speaker 3>it was, so we had we're sort of pointing in

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<v Speaker 3>our estimates in terms of what's being absorbed. We're are

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<v Speaker 3>based on our own numbers where we've absorbed that thirty

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<v Speaker 3>five percent of the impact. We expect that we'll see

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<v Speaker 3>that for the next couple of months. So we still

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<v Speaker 3>might see a sluggish brack drop through Q three Q four.

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<v Speaker 3>That should start to inflect higher. You should start to

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<v Speaker 3>see travel demand improve, good spending. There's a bit of

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<v Speaker 3>an air pocket right now that should pick up. And

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<v Speaker 3>then you start to look into twenty twenty six where

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<v Speaker 3>fiscal stimula should have an effect on the economy, about

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<v Speaker 3>boosting GDP by about forty point.

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<v Speaker 2>A real nugget there where Stephanie Roth says thirty five

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the tariff angst maybe has been unwound so far.

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<v Speaker 2>I have no clue, but that's a good working number

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<v Speaker 2>to move forward with Libby control, with us, with PIMCO,

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<v Speaker 2>and later in the conversation usual Washington talk, I asked

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<v Speaker 2>her about the America that's being left behind. Let's listen.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that's absolutely right, and I mean, this is

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<v Speaker 4>part of the reason why I think the majority of

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<v Speaker 4>Americans elected President Trump is that they did feel like

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<v Speaker 4>the sort of the establishment that the elites, the Bloomberg elites,

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<v Speaker 4>if you will, Tom, we're you know, we're leaving the

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<v Speaker 4>kind of the working person behind. I'm not sure if

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<v Speaker 4>those folks feel like that. The Trump administration elites yet

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<v Speaker 4>yet have addressed some of those concerns, particularly around cost

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<v Speaker 4>of living. I mean, these are all, you know, kitchen

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<v Speaker 4>table issues. These are still are the most important for voters.

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<v Speaker 4>And I'm not that that doesn't seem to have gone

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<v Speaker 4>away if you just look at least that's for the pulling.

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<v Speaker 4>Take that with a grain of salt.

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<v Speaker 2>Let me Kentrell. They're really interesting political discussions today. ConTroll

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<v Speaker 2>with PIMCO, and thank you Wendy Schiller Brown University as well.

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<v Speaker 2>In the midterm elections, they're out there. They're not upon us,

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<v Speaker 2>but you know, November of twenty twenty six in some

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<v Speaker 2>way or foreign beckons, thank you so much for your interest.

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<v Speaker 2>On podcasts on Spotify, on Apple podcasts as well, and

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<v Speaker 2>on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.