1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:13,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:17,600 Speaker 2: A single best idea, the single best idea in July 3 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 2: is to avoid the summer doldrums and focus. You can 4 00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 2: focus on reading, you can focus on some of the 5 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 2: conversations that we have. I just finished my book of 6 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 2: the summer, Ken Rogoff's Our Dollar, Your Problem Adam posing 7 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 2: with us today. Off of that, a great summinar coming 8 00:00:34,080 --> 00:00:37,680 Speaker 2: up in September with Ken Rogoff at the Peterson Institute. 9 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,200 Speaker 2: But there's a lot to think about and talk about, 10 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 2: even in the eighty five and ninety degree heat. So 11 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,920 Speaker 2: let us get started. Stephanie Roth at Wolf Research Optimistic 12 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 2: Q three, optimistic Q four a real change in tone 13 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,360 Speaker 2: to a better economy. Here's Stephanie Roth. 14 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:58,160 Speaker 3: I mean, this has been a difficult backdrop the forecast, 15 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:01,200 Speaker 3: but I have conviction that three could be okay and 16 00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:03,600 Speaker 3: then Q four could start getting better. And the reasons 17 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:07,119 Speaker 3: are we're currently now absorbing the terriff impact that should 18 00:01:07,160 --> 00:01:10,119 Speaker 3: take a couple of minds unknown, which wasn't no. No. 19 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: Now it's still an unknown, but less less unown than 20 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:15,960 Speaker 3: it was, so we had we're sort of pointing in 21 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,759 Speaker 3: our estimates in terms of what's being absorbed. We're are 22 00:01:19,800 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 3: based on our own numbers where we've absorbed that thirty 23 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:25,759 Speaker 3: five percent of the impact. We expect that we'll see 24 00:01:25,760 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 3: that for the next couple of months. So we still 25 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 3: might see a sluggish brack drop through Q three Q four. 26 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:32,120 Speaker 3: That should start to inflect higher. You should start to 27 00:01:32,120 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 3: see travel demand improve, good spending. There's a bit of 28 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 3: an air pocket right now that should pick up. And 29 00:01:37,280 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 3: then you start to look into twenty twenty six where 30 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:41,640 Speaker 3: fiscal stimula should have an effect on the economy, about 31 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:43,759 Speaker 3: boosting GDP by about forty point. 32 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: A real nugget there where Stephanie Roth says thirty five 33 00:01:46,760 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 2: percent of the tariff angst maybe has been unwound so far. 34 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,680 Speaker 2: I have no clue, but that's a good working number 35 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:58,000 Speaker 2: to move forward with Libby control, with us, with PIMCO, 36 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 2: and later in the conversation usual Washington talk, I asked 37 00:02:02,280 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 2: her about the America that's being left behind. Let's listen. 38 00:02:06,560 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 4: I think that's absolutely right, and I mean, this is 39 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 4: part of the reason why I think the majority of 40 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,760 Speaker 4: Americans elected President Trump is that they did feel like 41 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 4: the sort of the establishment that the elites, the Bloomberg elites, 42 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 4: if you will, Tom, we're you know, we're leaving the 43 00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 4: kind of the working person behind. I'm not sure if 44 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:29,359 Speaker 4: those folks feel like that. The Trump administration elites yet 45 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 4: yet have addressed some of those concerns, particularly around cost 46 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 4: of living. I mean, these are all, you know, kitchen 47 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 4: table issues. These are still are the most important for voters. 48 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 4: And I'm not that that doesn't seem to have gone 49 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 4: away if you just look at least that's for the pulling. 50 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 4: Take that with a grain of salt. 51 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 2: Let me Kentrell. They're really interesting political discussions today. ConTroll 52 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 2: with PIMCO, and thank you Wendy Schiller Brown University as well. 53 00:02:53,639 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 2: In the midterm elections, they're out there. They're not upon us, 54 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 2: but you know, November of twenty twenty six in some 55 00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 2: way or foreign beckons, thank you so much for your interest. 56 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 2: On podcasts on Spotify, on Apple podcasts as well, and 57 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:17,119 Speaker 2: on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.