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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome. All right. Here we

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Speaker 2: go there throwing into set I'm saying it's a catch touch.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, but

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Speaker 3: they go to win.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right. This is the ultimate kabinet and we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by Bet MGM

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Speaker 4: Brendan glas Sheen and the host chair, joined by Action

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Speaker 4: Network NFL contributor expert Brandon Anderson. Today's episode early NFL

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Speaker 4: playoff Betsy, Welcome back, Brandon. We did an episode going

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Speaker 4: back to last week doing some long shots. With the

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Speaker 4: draft now being over and getting sety. I think the

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Speaker 4: latest stuff we really had to consume was rookie camps.

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Speaker 4: But today we're examining the playoff outlook for the twenty

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Speaker 4: twenty four season. We'll be examining this outlook through the

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Speaker 4: framework of risers and fallers, selecting six of each six fallers,

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Speaker 4: six risers, because the trend in the NFL is if

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Speaker 4: you make the playoffs, half the field normally doesn't get

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Speaker 4: in the next year, and then seven new teams end

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Speaker 4: up getting in.

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Speaker 1: With the new format of seven teams in each conference.

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Speaker 4: So let's discuss a little bit more about this framework

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Speaker 4: and how Brandon categorizes risers and fallers. It's kind of

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Speaker 4: like what I just said, Brandon about teams that get

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Speaker 4: in last year, there's a half a dozen that are

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Speaker 4: not going to get in the following year. But try

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Speaker 4: to help us understand how you go about framing this

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Speaker 4: kind of discussion.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I really nailed it. There's not too much more

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Speaker 3: to say about it. Since we've switched to the new format,

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Speaker 3: it's been about six teams a year that fallout and

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Speaker 3: then obviously six new teams that take their place. Though

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Speaker 3: we have more teams than the playoffs, you might think, oh, well,

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Speaker 3: that means more teams are dropping out. Actually a little

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Speaker 3: bit less because there's more margin for error. Right, if

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Speaker 3: you're the better team you can be. This isn't a

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Speaker 3: good example. You could be the Bengals that everything go

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Speaker 3: wrong last year still went nine to eight, almost made

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Speaker 3: the playoffs. They didn't, but there's a lot more room

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Speaker 3: for if things went wrong. So, yeah, we're just gonna

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Speaker 3: basically start by knocking six teams out of the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: and as it turned out doesn't have to be this way,

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Speaker 3: but I have three from each conference, and then we

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Speaker 3: will rule three teams in. And we're following rules here.

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Speaker 3: I can't just pick any old six teams. If I

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Speaker 3: picked three NFC teams, I gotta have three NFC in.

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Speaker 3: If I knocked out a division champ, I gotta have

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Speaker 3: a division champion. So that's the form I We're just

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Speaker 3: kind of gonna first look at all these teams. We

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Speaker 3: are not locked and loaded here. The schedule just came out.

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Speaker 3: We got five months to go before we even get

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Speaker 3: to the games. This is like an early look sort

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Speaker 3: of situation. So yeah, let's get into it. Why why

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Speaker 3: don't you give us the field from last year? Because

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Speaker 3: I know I needed to just see what were the

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Speaker 3: teams that I was thinking about.

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Speaker 1: Before I do that. I would just like to also plug.

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Speaker 4: Just a couple days ago, Brandon Anderson did a fantastic

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Speaker 4: write up ranking all two hundred and seventy two NFL

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Speaker 4: regular season games. You can check that out in the

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Speaker 4: action app, actionnetwork dot Com, an extensive breakdown. He doesn't

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Speaker 4: like he doesn't give bullet points on every game, but

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Speaker 4: every couple of games he's got a little something there

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Speaker 4: for you to chew on. So that's good stuff and

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Speaker 4: it kind of dives into some of this. But your

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Speaker 4: first real take, Brandon, as you said on the playoff

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Speaker 4: hopes for these teams, in some of these teams, and

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Speaker 4: I think throughout this episode you will dive into price points,

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Speaker 4: odds and how that all kind of sets up where

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Speaker 4: there is value where there might not be based on

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Speaker 4: the risers and followers you evaluate. So, as you said,

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Speaker 4: last year's playoff teams and the AFC one through seven, Ravens, Bills, Chiefs, Texans, Browns, Dolphins, Steelers,

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Speaker 4: NFC one through seven, Niners, Cowboys, Lions, Bucks, Eagles, Rams, Packers.

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Speaker 4: So we'll start NFC. We're going to talk fallers. First

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Speaker 4: first faller in the NFC.

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Speaker 3: What do you got? Yeah, So let's start with the

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Speaker 3: easy one. It's gotta be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They're

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Speaker 3: minus one seventy to miss the playoffs right now, so

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Speaker 3: we're doing like the shortest odds first. They were only

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Speaker 3: in because of the NFC South, right, you and I

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Speaker 3: this was the punching bag. We went after the NFC

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Speaker 3: South week after week, game after game, every time we

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Speaker 3: get bet against them, but somebody had to make it

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Speaker 3: in The Bucks made and they were fine. Dave Canalis,

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Speaker 3: the offensive coordinator last year, is gone. He's coaching the

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Speaker 3: rival Panthers. Now are their rivals I'm not sure, but

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Speaker 3: either way, we saw the career year from Baker Mayfield.

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Speaker 3: Dave Canalis got a lot of credit for that, and

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Speaker 3: so with him gone, what version of Baker do we get.

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Speaker 3: We still don't really have a run game in Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 3: They were only nine to eight last year. They were

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Speaker 3: basically sub average on DVA on offense, just barely above

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Speaker 3: average on defense. Now they get a first play schedule,

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Speaker 3: so you get to add Detroit Sant Fran Dallas to

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Speaker 3: the schedule to love out the team. Luck you brought

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Speaker 3: up the watchable games thing. The Bucks were in my

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Speaker 3: bottom five for most watchable. It's hard to be a

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Speaker 3: playoff team and still be this unwatchable. Effectively, they're running

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Speaker 3: it back too. I just feel like, yeah, they're fine, right,

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Speaker 3: they're fine, But let's find someone new from the NFC

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Speaker 3: South this year. So that's it. The Bucks are out right.

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Speaker 4: Liam Cohen is the new offensive coordinator in Tampa, and

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Speaker 4: I think he was the guy. He was in Los

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Speaker 4: Angeles with McVeigh, and he may have been the guy

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Speaker 4: who was the OC when Baker practiced for like a

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Speaker 4: day and then played Thursday night football when he had

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Speaker 4: to suit up in that last minute game a couple

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Speaker 4: of years ago for the Rams. So all right, Bucks

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Speaker 4: makes sense as the first one. And again is Brandon

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Speaker 4: noted minus one seventy in the market to miss the

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Speaker 4: playoffs as of right now number two in the NFC

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Speaker 4: years second faller a team that might not get in

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Speaker 4: the playoffs that made it last year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, So on a lot of these, I kind of

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Speaker 3: had to make a choice between a couple of teams,

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Speaker 3: and for this it was between Okay, who are those

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Speaker 3: last two NFC wild cards that were exciting down the

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Speaker 3: stretch and snuck in Rams Packers. I'm gonna go with

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Speaker 3: the Rams here as a team falling out, it really

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Speaker 3: it's a bet on Aaron Donald, who is gonna be

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Speaker 3: watching games from his couch this year, and Aaron Donald

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Speaker 3: not being there for a defense that was like fine

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Speaker 3: but overachieved last year. Now you take away one of

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Speaker 3: the greatest defenders in NFL history period, and you take

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Speaker 3: away Rareie Morris who led the defense who maximized those guys.

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Speaker 3: Those guys he's gone. Also, he's got his head coaching

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Speaker 3: job in Atlanta this year. So the super young defense,

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Speaker 3: super young defensive line especially. They restocked the secondary, Darius

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Speaker 3: Williams from Jacksonville, Tredavius White from Buffalo. There's a reason

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Speaker 3: that those teams moved on from those guys, Cam Curw.

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Speaker 3: I like at safety. They still have a rookie kicker

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Speaker 3: again this year. This team is always terrible at special teams. Stafford,

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Speaker 3: Cooper Cup, all those guys. An offense good, but all

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Speaker 3: was injured and they got healthy just enough last week

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Speaker 3: over the line. But it's always gonna be an issue.

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Speaker 3: Tough division, tough schedule. We'll get into the division more

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Speaker 3: later on here. I like the Rams fine, just it's

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Speaker 3: gonna be tough, and I think that they maybe end

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Speaker 3: up something like seven eight wins, just missing the cut,

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Speaker 3: and you know, could go a lot worse. Of the

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Speaker 3: offense has some injury issues. So I'm gonna knock the

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Speaker 3: Rams out this year as well.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so there's one division winner in the Bucks, second

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Speaker 4: wild card team in the NFC. The Rams is the

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Speaker 4: sixth seed in last year's postseason how about a third

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Speaker 4: faller And this one might.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: I mean, this might knock some socks off, But.

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Speaker 4: Just my opinion, you're getting a pretty good price point

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Speaker 4: I think on this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So this is one that I'm actually gonna be betting,

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Speaker 3: and I'm gonna bet against America's team, the Dallas Cowboys

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Speaker 3: plus one eighty six to miss the playoffs. I guess

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Speaker 3: I'm betting on them to miss the playoffs. We kind

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Speaker 3: of teased this in the episode last week. Brandon, I

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Speaker 3: just feel like this has Last Dance written all over it.

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Speaker 3: To me, this is a team that embarrassed itself for

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Speaker 3: the bajilliance straight year in the playoffs, and then like

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Speaker 3: it was so bad that we spent the second half

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Speaker 3: of their exit talking about who Mike McCarthy would get

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Speaker 3: fired for. I had an article up by the end

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Speaker 3: of the game with options of who would get hired

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Speaker 3: to replace Mike McCarthy. Guess who's coaching the Cowboys this year.

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Speaker 3: It's Mike McCarthy. We brought him back. He's still here.

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Speaker 3: We replaced Dan Quinn with Mike Zimmer. Look, Mike Zimmer

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Speaker 3: was on the Vikings a long time. Mike Zimmer is

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Speaker 3: an excellent defensive coach. He's a very different defensive coach.

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Speaker 3: Dallas has had a defense that's been really good, but

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Speaker 3: kind of like fake really good. They're very aggressive, they

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Speaker 3: force a ton of turnovers, they get a lot of sacks,

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Speaker 3: but when they don't, when they don't get home, they

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Speaker 3: get the game we watch in the playoffs where they're

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Speaker 3: just getting lit up play after a play after play

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Speaker 3: in chunks of yardage. And Mike Zimmer is a very

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Speaker 3: different star coach than Dan Quinn. I'm not so sure

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Speaker 3: that we'll just translate necessarily immediately. And then you get

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Speaker 3: Jerry Jones, old man Jones says all in. We're all

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Speaker 3: in this year, we're running at back. We're all in.

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Speaker 3: And I don't know how he defines all in, Like

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Speaker 3: this is all in if you are if you are

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Speaker 3: playing poker and you've just been like bleeding out blinds

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Speaker 3: for two hours and you're down to like two blinds left,

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Speaker 3: and you're like, all right, baby, all in, We're going

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Speaker 3: all in now. To say like, no, you're not all in.

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Speaker 3: You're it's the only thing you have left. There's nothing

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Speaker 3: more to give here. That's how we feel like with

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Speaker 3: his team. The secondary still never got that other corner.

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Speaker 3: Stefan Gilmour is gone now, so darn Bland great last year,

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Speaker 3: but they kind of replaced the spot that they thought

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Speaker 3: they had filled. The offensive line loses Tyrone Smith. They

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Speaker 3: get a rookie left tackle, Tyrone Smith Hall of Fame.

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Speaker 3: Dude went healthy rookie left tackle probably not yet. They

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Speaker 3: didn't sign Dak, they didn't sign CD, they didn't sign

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Speaker 3: Micah Parsons. So they got that hanging over the team.

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Speaker 3: Bill Belchi just hanging out out there. That's hanging over

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Speaker 3: the team, like waiting to step in for Mike McCarthy

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Speaker 3: on all the rumors whatever free agency? Who do they

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Speaker 3: get Eric Hendricks the linebacker? And then they bring back

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Speaker 3: Zeke who apparently is their lead running back because they

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Speaker 3: got nobody else anymore. They were great last year. Everything

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Speaker 3: went right. They were my team. They were the team

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Speaker 3: that I started in on before the season. And I

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Speaker 3: just feel like I don't I said, on like the Rams,

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Speaker 3: I thought maybe they missed by a couple of games.

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Speaker 3: I will look for alternate unders on the Cowboys. I

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Speaker 3: think this goes horribly. I think that they fall apart

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Speaker 3: in embarrassing passion. They are red flags r us and

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Speaker 3: I think it's gonna go very, very badly in Dallas

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Speaker 3: this year.

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Speaker 1: You pretty much covered it.

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Speaker 4: The quarterback and the coach not having much stability, just

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Speaker 4: kind of riding out contracts is what I think jumps

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Speaker 4: out the most as it pertains to the Dallas Cowboys. Okay,

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Speaker 4: so those are three fallers in the NFC. You've got

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Speaker 4: a couple more three fallers in the AFC. Again, starting

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Speaker 4: with a team with shorter odds in the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 4: Why Cleveland to start here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so this is a tough one I looked at.

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Speaker 3: So both the Browns and the Steelers made the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: and I'll be totally honest, maybe because I've been on

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Speaker 3: NBA brain for a while, but I sort of forgot

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Speaker 3: that either one of them was in the playoffs. Like,

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Speaker 3: we did not have deep runs from these teams, Brandon,

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Speaker 3: so you know, they did not have memorable playoff runs.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, outside of Pittsburgh, like almost covering at the end

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Speaker 4: of their game against Buffalo.

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Speaker 1: Cleveland was Joe Flacco was fun at the end of

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Speaker 1: the year.

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Speaker 4: But other than that, that was a Texans rampage in

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Speaker 4: the second half. Very forgettable playoff games for those two

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Speaker 4: teams in the ANFC North.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I was really choosing between one oven maybe

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Speaker 3: both of these teams as possible cannis to fall out.

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Speaker 3: It's a very close choice here. I end up leaning

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Speaker 3: Browns between the two. The Browns are basically running it

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Speaker 3: back with their defense that was incredible a year ago

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Speaker 3: under Jim Schwartz, they had everything. Miles Garrett is going

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Speaker 3: to be a big defensive Player of the Year favorite

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Speaker 3: this year. I'm sure the offense was terrible, but should

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Speaker 3: get Nick chubbed back at some point that Jerry Judy.

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Speaker 3: I don't really know what the quarterback is, but it

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Speaker 3: can't really be worse than last year. They went two

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Speaker 3: and four with dtr Pga Walker and Jeff Brisco. Last

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Speaker 3: year whatever they got from Deshaun Watson and two hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty to one comeback Player of the Year at

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Speaker 3: Joe Flacca which I believe is his legal name. Now,

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Speaker 3: those two guys they went nine to two under, So

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Speaker 3: that's not great quarterback play. They didn't have offensive line,

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Speaker 3: their tackles were hurt all year, they didn't have a

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Speaker 3: running back. They still got over the line. That's how

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Speaker 3: good the defense was. So it sounds like I'm making

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Speaker 3: the case for the Cleveland Browns staying here's the problem.

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Speaker 3: Outlier seasons, especially on defense, are really hard to repeat.

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Speaker 3: It doesn't all go that well. And that magically, especially

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Speaker 3: defensive outliers. Offensive outliers can repeat because usually the offensive outlers,

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Speaker 3: because you had Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen or one

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Speaker 3: of the all time elite quarterbacks, defense is a different

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Speaker 3: version of that, and usually you regress some amount. And

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Speaker 3: that the Browns were so good defensively to carry what

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Speaker 3: was a truly terrible offense that if they drop from

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Speaker 3: like first or second to seventh or eighth or tenth defensively,

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Speaker 3: that's a huge problem for this team because it's a

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Speaker 3: really big gap for the offense to make up. Alex

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Speaker 3: van Pelt, the coordinator, is gone for Ken Dorsey, I

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Speaker 3: don't know about that. It could be an upgrade. I

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Speaker 3: know our producer Matt Mitchell would say otherwise, Ken Dorsey

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Speaker 3: did not have a great exit out of Buffalo. There

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Speaker 3: are things to like here, there are things that dislike

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Speaker 3: for the Steelers. I actually think the Steelers have a

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Speaker 3: lower ceiling than this team. But our guy Arthur Smith there,

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Speaker 3: I think really raises the floor offensively. He calls the plays. Now,

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Speaker 3: they got a first round tackle, second round center. They've

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Speaker 3: really invested in that line, and that's Arthur Ball right,

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Speaker 3: You're gonna run the football. And I trust Pittsburgh's defense

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Speaker 3: year over year based on what we've seen under Tomlin

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Speaker 3: for decades now. I trust them to be very good

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Speaker 3: and closer to the caliber of Cleveland's defense. Where Pittsburgh's

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Speaker 3: offense I trust to be stable at least. We don't

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Speaker 3: know if it will be Russell Wilson or Justin Fields.

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Speaker 3: But the run game, the boring run game and play

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Speaker 3: action for Arthur Smith, I don't think let's Pittsburgh really

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Speaker 3: go anywhere. I think their goal is to keep the

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Speaker 3: plus five hundred streak alive, right and make the playoffs again,

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Speaker 3: have another forgettable exit. That's what this team looks like.

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Speaker 3: I just feel better about them getting to that than

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Speaker 3: the Browns getting to that again. So I think these

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Speaker 3: teams are both solid. I think they'd be in the mix. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: it's a tough division. The Ravens are gonna be good again.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk about the Bengals in their second half here.

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Speaker 3: So that's part of this as well. But I'm gonna

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Speaker 3: have the Steelers just barely staying in forgettably, so the

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Speaker 3: Browns out. So Cleveland, what are the odds here? Cleveland

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Speaker 3: as minus one fifty two to miss the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: Cleveland and Pittsburgh meet on Thanksgiving November twenty first, and

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Speaker 4: then they meet again December eighth, so they're two head

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Speaker 4: to head meetings or later in the year. So that

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Speaker 4: that's interesting just to your point to see if indeed

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Speaker 4: Pittsburgh does stabilize and where Cleveland is that with Deshaun

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Speaker 4: Watson in theory being their quarterback for the entire season

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Speaker 4: in theory, Yeah, well you got you gotta add that

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Speaker 4: caveat this one surprised me. So again Brandon gives us

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Speaker 4: the dock. He he maps this out for me to

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Speaker 4: help direct traffic here. So as you say, Cleveland was

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Speaker 4: the five seed last year in the AFC, they faced

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Speaker 4: the Texans is the four seed, the winner of the

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Speaker 4: AFC South and one of your three fallers in the AFC,

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Speaker 4: the Texans. Texans island.

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Speaker 1: What's wrong with you? What's happened to you?

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Speaker 3: Islands are only good for one season, Brandon, we got

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Speaker 3: to ride it out. We got to cash in and

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Speaker 3: you gotta get out when they getten's good sometimes and I.

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Speaker 4: Think I get it. Man, My fiance watches Survivor. You

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Speaker 4: know it's like season's over, We're onto the next one.

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Speaker 1: I get it.

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Speaker 4: I've learned your things, Seattle, Houston. Quick tease when we

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Speaker 4: get to the Risers, there might be a new island

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Speaker 4: for this coming season from Brandon.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I was looking for the new island,

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Speaker 3: but you can't stay too long. As soon as that

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Speaker 3: island starts to overpopulate, you're out of there. You got

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Speaker 3: to get to the next island. The prices that flipped

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Speaker 3: on you. And to me, that's a little bit I'm

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Speaker 3: seeing from Houston this year. You got coaching staff, we

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Speaker 3: love stuck together. Second year that should be Good's a

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Speaker 3: lot of expectations on this team. Though. They bring in

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Speaker 3: mix in. They bring in Stefan Diggs. That's good, but

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure that it's like that that good like

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Speaker 3: mix in, it's floor raising options, but these are not

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Speaker 3: the stars that they once were. Similarly, on defense, they

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Speaker 3: bring an Autry and Daniel Hunter on the line. Again

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Speaker 3: good that these are the sort of moves Houston should

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Speaker 3: be making. When you've got the cheap quarterback, you go

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Speaker 3: and you sign these sort of veteran guys. But these

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Speaker 3: are not the players they were three years ago, five

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Speaker 3: years ago. So you're inviting in an age and an

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Speaker 3: injury factor here to the equation that they didn't have

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Speaker 3: as much with a younger team last year. The rest

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Speaker 3: of the defense, the linebackers, the secondary. So kind of

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Speaker 3: suspect like this is a team brandan that I watched

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Speaker 3: a lot of last year, as you know, because we

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Speaker 3: were on the island, and that defense did not give

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Speaker 3: me a lot of confidence outside of the front the

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Speaker 3: line realized, let's say the front seven, but the linebackers

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Speaker 3: are terrible, so I can't even include them here. It

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Speaker 3: just it's a team that we're excited about, right, we

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Speaker 3: want to watch them. You mentioned my schedule release thing.

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Speaker 3: Texans were top five, They're gonna be on TV. We're

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Speaker 3: gonna be excited. We want to watch Stroud play. I

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Speaker 3: don't disagree with all that. I'm still on enjoying Texans Island.

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Speaker 3: But don't forget how hard it was for them to

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Speaker 3: make the playoffs. They have to have a lot go right,

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Speaker 3: They had to win close games with st making big

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Speaker 3: plays multiple times down the stretch, and they still had

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Speaker 3: to go get that Week eighteen win just to get

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Speaker 3: the win, just to get into the playoffs and outlast

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Speaker 3: the division. And frankly, none of that would have mattered

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Speaker 3: unless Jacksonville completely tanked down the stretch anyway. So we're

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Speaker 3: gonna cash our Texans Island. We're gonna spend our money

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Speaker 3: all everywhere we get credit. We're victory lapping, baby. But

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Speaker 3: let's not forget what helped us along the way, Like

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Speaker 3: we got plenty of help and luck to even things out.

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Speaker 3: I don't think Texans will really bad. I just think

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Speaker 3: that growth is not I was linear, and we love

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Speaker 3: to hype the young team and jump in and there

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Speaker 3: will be times for Houston and maybe we'll be this year,

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Speaker 3: but I'm gonna bat against it being now. And it's

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Speaker 3: a tough division. I think that there will be other

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Speaker 3: teams that division to keep an eye on. So Houston

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Speaker 3: plus one seventy to miss the playoffs, if you're ready

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Speaker 3: to jump off the island, this might be a spot

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Speaker 3: for it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I would wonder that might be the best price

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Speaker 4: you can get on that, right, Like I mean, obviously

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Speaker 4: you have time before Week one.

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Speaker 1: I mean, and that goes with all of this that

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Speaker 1: we're talking about.

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Speaker 4: But I think curious if it gets any if the odds,

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Speaker 4: if they increase any more than what you know, I think.

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Speaker 3: I may disagree with you on that. I haven't checked

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Speaker 3: the schedule yet, so I can't I can't remember what

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Speaker 3: they look like.

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Speaker 1: Wrote about every game. You don't have this memorized yet.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I have just my two hundred and seventy

387
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:27,280
Speaker 3: two rankings memorized. That's a You and I both thought

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Speaker 3: Texans would be playing Week one in Kanasas City and

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Speaker 3: then they gave us Baltimore instead. So here's my caution

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Speaker 3: to what you said about Houston. Yeah, I think Houston

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Speaker 3: is the buzzy team that everyone is gonna want to hype,

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Speaker 3: Like Houston's the team that is going to be everyone's

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl sleeper pick this year. Everyone wants to get

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Speaker 3: a piece of Houston, because that's how it works with islands.

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Speaker 3: Everyone wants to come to the island after you already

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Speaker 3: discovered it and like sold your real estate for more money.

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Speaker 3: So I think Houston is the team that, like this

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Speaker 3: price can really only go in one direction, and it

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Speaker 3: can only help us because the more people believe in Houston,

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Speaker 3: the more people hype them up than Actually the miss

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Speaker 3: playoffs odds have to go a long to even that out.

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Speaker 3: So I don't know, you have to rush in on

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Speaker 3: this and depend on the schedule as well. I think

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Speaker 3: there will be chances before the season, but during the

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Speaker 3: season two to possibly fade a team that's gonna have

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Speaker 3: a lot of hype and maybe we just a little

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Speaker 3: bit more hype than out too.

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Speaker 1: Okay, you might be right.

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Speaker 4: I mean, plus, their first couple weeks are not too

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Speaker 4: too bad. Indie Chicago, Minnesota, Jacksonville, Buffalo, New England.

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Speaker 1: First six weeks of the year, that's not bad. But

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Speaker 1: I hear you. That's a good point. I was thinking

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Speaker 1: more about when the season got underway.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, the build up and the people being Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I think the Packers are that team in the NFC,

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Speaker 4: The Texans are that team in the AFC. Are people

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Speaker 4: just the public team that people are buying in on. Okay,

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Speaker 4: one more faller or just makes it six total. We

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Speaker 4: did three in the NFC. Our third faller comes from

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Speaker 4: the third follower in the AFC. Yeah, I want you

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Speaker 4: to compare the two teams here, because I think this

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Speaker 4: reflects that one of these teams.

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Speaker 1: Could be in.

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Speaker 4: You have the Buffalo Bills as your final faller of

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Speaker 4: six overall in the NFL playoffs, the third in the AFC,

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Speaker 4: and you want to weigh in on how it's kind

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Speaker 4: of gonna come down to these two, Buffalo and Miami.

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Speaker 3: Buffalo and Miami in part because I'm choosing another team

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Speaker 3: in that division that you probably know who it is

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Speaker 3: if you've listened to me a few times already. But

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Speaker 3: Miami is who I thought I was gonna be choosing

432
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 3: here as the team to fall out. I was really

433
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:37,960
Speaker 3: low on Miami heading the off season. They really sputtered

434
00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 3: toward the end of the season. They had a lot

435
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 3: of those injuries. The coaching staff had some issues. Mc

436
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 3: fangio is gone now for Anthony Weaver calling defensive plays,

437
00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,919
Speaker 3: I think that maybe end up some more stability. They

438
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:53,800
Speaker 3: also had major cap problems, so they lost Christian Wilkins

439
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 3: Raykwon Davis on the line, they lost vandinkl pass rushing,

440
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 3: the las Xavian Howard. Those are big names. I was

441
00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 3: ready to just be like, all right, I think I'm

442
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:06,080
Speaker 3: out on Miami, And then I pulled up the profiles

443
00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:08,919
Speaker 3: for Miami and Buffalo, and really what you have are

444
00:22:09,040 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 3: kind of mirror profiles. You had by DVOA top three

445
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 3: offense both teams. Miami was second, Buffalo was third. You

446
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 3: had a pretty league average defense. Buffalo is a little better.

447
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,879
Speaker 3: But if you remember, it is a roller coaster ride, right,

448
00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 3: Buffalo had like an absolute terrible defense for a stretch.

449
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 3: They were really good for a stretch. Miami also had

450
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 3: that kind of the opposite roller coaster ride. Middle of

451
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:34,840
Speaker 3: the season around they got healthy, they got really good defensively,

452
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 3: and then everybody started getting hurt again, and so they

453
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 3: kind of averaged out that way. So then my question

454
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 3: is which version of those do I trust better? And

455
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 3: which one do I trust more? And with Buffalo you've

456
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 3: got no Stefon Diggs, no Gabe Davis. So the receivers

457
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,119
Speaker 3: now are khalilshak Here we talked about last week, young Coleman,

458
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 3: a rookie, Curtis Samuel and MVS who supposedly is the

459
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 3: same year and now to go get that deep ball

460
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,400
Speaker 3: and drop it like he does on every other team

461
00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 3: he's ever been on. The running back James Cook is good.

462
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 3: The line is fine, like the line in Buffalo as

463
00:23:09,760 --> 00:23:12,880
Speaker 3: Alla's just get a bunch of dudes and hopefully once

464
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 3: the injuries, star will have more dudes to plug into

465
00:23:15,040 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 3: the other dudes that weren't that great. The entire offense

466
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 3: is Josh Allen. It has kind of been like that

467
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 3: for a while, but with the receiver room so bad,

468
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 3: now it's really Josh Allen. The defense lost both safeties,

469
00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 3: guys that had been like stalwarts of what the defense

470
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 3: was fears. They lost Trey White, who admittally didn't play

471
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 3: much last year. They do get Matt Mlano back, Daquon

472
00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,199
Speaker 3: Jones back, they missed a lot of time, but the

473
00:23:39,240 --> 00:23:42,160
Speaker 3: secondary is still pretty shaky. And that defense was very

474
00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 3: unstable last year and just it got old. That's all.

475
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 3: So to me, what I see in Buffalo is I

476
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 3: don't really love the offense, but Josh Allen. I don't

477
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 3: really love the defense, but Sean McDermott. And my instinct

478
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 3: was just, well, you got mcdermomy, you got Josh Allen.

479
00:23:59,200 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 3: You probably gona win ten games and make the playoffs.

480
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 3: Like that's how it goes. You have Josh Allen, you

481
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 3: have a star quarterback, I'm gonna coount you as a

482
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 3: playoff team. That's usually how it goes the NFL. Yeah,

483
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: it's a lot on two guys from Miami. It's not

484
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 3: all on one guy. It's really it's on Mike McDaniel's

485
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 3: play calling for the offense to be so good and

486
00:24:16,320 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 3: all their speed options and the run game, and like, look,

487
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 3: I'm not speculating injuries here. If the Bills lose Josh

488
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,040
Speaker 3: Allen for four games, they're screwed. If Miami loses two

489
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 3: of for four games, they just put whoever's next in

490
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 3: and have them throwed all the weapons and like nothing

491
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,680
Speaker 3: really changes that much for the team. Hopefully. It's a

492
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 3: huge difference between them. So it's like it's it's uh,

493
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 3: it's mitigating the risk basically, like with Buffalo, it's all

494
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,679
Speaker 3: on the two guys, one of whom might like. There

495
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 3: are some faint whiffs with Buffalo on like the last

496
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 3: dance thing I discribed with Dallas where it's like, all right, really,

497
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 3: we're just running the formula back again while we're like

498
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 3: kind of bleeding out along the way here. I just

499
00:24:59,080 --> 00:25:00,800
Speaker 3: this surprised me, to be honest, I didn't know that

500
00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 3: I would be picking them coming to this exercise, they

501
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 3: are plus one eighty to miss the playoffs. It's obviously

502
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,640
Speaker 3: gonna be a tough schedule. They won the division, they're

503
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 3: I was gonna have a tough schedule that way. I

504
00:25:11,720 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 3: was curious. Our producer, Matt Mitchell, is a huge diehard

505
00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,160
Speaker 3: Bills fan, and coming on today, I was wondering how

506
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 3: he would feel about this, because I fearing if I

507
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:22,280
Speaker 3: if I am properly honest here, I was fearing how

508
00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 3: he would feel about this, and he's feeling some of

509
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,560
Speaker 3: the same the same issues here that I'm not sure

510
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 3: the super Bowl ceiling is there anymore, and it feels

511
00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 3: like we're just trying to hang on to the just

512
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:36,639
Speaker 3: get in the playoffs mode, And this feels like a

513
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 3: team where Josh Allen will be like the MVP favorite

514
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 3: in week six because he's doing everything, and then they

515
00:25:43,080 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 3: fall apart by week twelve because he's doing everything, Like

516
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 3: you don't want to be that valuable to a team,

517
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 3: And I'm a little worried that Josh Allen is just

518
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,480
Speaker 3: way too valuable to this version of the team. So

519
00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 3: they are my final team falling out of the playoffs.

520
00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:00,399
Speaker 3: I honestly can't believe it.

521
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: See here feels bridgie. It's a bridgie year for the Bills, right,

522
00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 1: trying to reload and try to truly build it.

523
00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 4: I mean, the difference with them and the Cowboys is

524
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 4: they did give, they got alan, they got a deal done.

525
00:26:14,359 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: They got a deal done, and now one's obviously younger

526
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 1: than Dak So I would also know you mentioned Miami.

527
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 4: The Dolphins do finish with two games in the Northeast,

528
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 4: or they head up from Miami, Cleveland and New York

529
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 4: to wrap up the year.

530
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 1: They get the Bills at early September.

531
00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: Are those those Northeast games outdoors for Miami? Yes? Yeah,

532
00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 3: that's no fun, that's not great.

533
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,199
Speaker 4: We can rapid fire here because I think folks can

534
00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 4: put two and two together with what you have. Falling

535
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 4: Who rises? Okay, so you discussed Brown Steelers in the

536
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:55,200
Speaker 4: fallers segment. Give us your first riser, who makes the playoffs?

537
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:56,400
Speaker 4: Who didn't make it last year?

538
00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Bengals are the first pick. Their team we

539
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 3: don't need to say too much about us is making

540
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 3: the playoffs. They're what like the fourth Super Bowl favor

541
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 3: right now, so obviously we are assuming they're gonna make

542
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,680
Speaker 3: the playoffs. It was kind of a lost season anyways.

543
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow played ten games. He really was hurt for

544
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:12,760
Speaker 3: at least half of those games, Like he was not

545
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,159
Speaker 3: the Joe Burrow that we know. Higgins missed five games.

546
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 3: They get him back, we didn't know if he would

547
00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 3: be around. Still, they replaced Mixing with Zach Moss. I

548
00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 3: think that's fine. The offensive line gets a little better.

549
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 3: I think the biggest thing that happened for this team

550
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 3: in the offseason is they brought in at safety Gino

551
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,840
Speaker 3: Stone and Von Bell. This is a team that had

552
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,600
Speaker 3: had safeties for years under Luanna Arumo that did everything.

553
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,320
Speaker 3: Safety is really important for this defense. And then they

554
00:27:38,359 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 3: went with the young guys last year, and he saw

555
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 3: that and was like, never again, my guys never get

556
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 3: like he got them out here and brought in some veterans.

557
00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 3: Well they're not out of here. They're on the roster still,

558
00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:52,200
Speaker 3: but they are not the leads safeties anymore. So I

559
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 3: think the defense that was at what career last year.

560
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 3: The offense still finished eleventh in DVAA even without Joe

561
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 3: Burrow for like half of the season season, so I

562
00:28:01,040 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 3: think the floor is very high here. The Ravens. They

563
00:28:04,359 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 3: lost a bunch of dudes on defense, they lost some

564
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 3: guys on the line, they lost Mike McDonald leading the defense.

565
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,160
Speaker 3: And if you look at the schedule, Baltimore finished first,

566
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,920
Speaker 3: Cincinnati finished last. How scheduling works is that means you

567
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 3: have three games different from the other team. Baltimore has

568
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 3: the first play schedule, so they have to play Buffalo

569
00:28:23,440 --> 00:28:26,879
Speaker 3: and Houston, and then you get one extra random NFC game. Now,

570
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 3: because that's how the game seventeen thing works, they get

571
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,200
Speaker 3: the Bucks who were division winner. Cincinnati was last place,

572
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 3: so they get instead of Buffalo, New England in Steth Houston, Tennessee,

573
00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 3: instead of Tampa Carolina. That's a huge swing of three

574
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 3: games right there. Nothing to do with the dates or

575
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,200
Speaker 3: the schedule announced, that's just how it goes. But I

576
00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 3: think it's a good spot. You can't bet but the

577
00:28:48,600 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 3: Bengals to make the playoffs, because what are they minus

578
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,040
Speaker 3: two to ten? That's not a price worth paying. They

579
00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 3: are plus one seventy to win the division. You know,

580
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 3: I love my worst to first division winners. The Bengals

581
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:02,360
Speaker 3: qualify they were worse than the division and I think

582
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 3: that there's a pretty easy case that they may be

583
00:29:04,080 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 3: the best. So if you want to bet the Bengals,

584
00:29:06,200 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 3: you can't bet the playoff odds. You can bet the

585
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 3: plus one seventy two the division based on that schedule

586
00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 3: and just kind of the way things are trending here.

587
00:29:14,640 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 4: Okay, second riser coming out of the AFC. We're doing

588
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 4: AFC first for the riser.

589
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:21,640
Speaker 1: So connecting dots.

590
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 4: I'm fascinated to discuss the Jets because you have the

591
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 4: Jets as a riser. If you tuned in to our

592
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 4: long Shot pod, you did a lot of Jets discussion.

593
00:29:29,760 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers MVP Brandon now seeing a schedule because we

594
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 4: hadn't seen each other or spoken to each other until

595
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 4: we got a schedule three games in eleven days to

596
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:43,720
Speaker 4: open the year, and the league clearly decided we're gonna

597
00:29:43,720 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 4: get these guys on national TV as much as possible

598
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,719
Speaker 4: before their bye week. The Jets bye week, i think

599
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 4: is week twelve, yes, Week twelve, six of their first

600
00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:55,280
Speaker 4: eleven on in a standalone spot. They've got a London

601
00:29:55,400 --> 00:30:01,520
Speaker 4: game Monday night twice NBC once, they're on Prime Video once,

602
00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 4: so they're doing their part to try and make sure

603
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 4: we capitalize on the Jets being interesting slash in it

604
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 4: at the beginning of the year.

605
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:15,239
Speaker 1: That has to at one point factor into your think.

606
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 4: NBC, I should say NBC twice, ESPN Monday Night Football twice,

607
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 4: Prime Video twice. Holy Cole, they're on Prime Time a ton.

608
00:30:25,760 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 4: But it doesn't You don't seem all that concerned in

609
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 4: terms of how it ends. What's the handicap on the Jets.

610
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: To rise with the Bills and the Dolphins being in

611
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 1: the Division two.

612
00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think it's interesting that you note about

613
00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 3: the schedule that they're putting them on at the start

614
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 3: of the season, And I think that's telling with this

615
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:45,880
Speaker 3: team because I think everyone expects the on paper Jets

616
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 3: to be a pretty good team. The question is how

617
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 3: long the on paper Jets actually make it out of

618
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 3: the field, because what do we have here. We got

619
00:30:52,640 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers, you know, pushing forty now come off the

620
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,080
Speaker 3: Achilles injury and all the other Aaron Rodgers stuff. So

621
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,000
Speaker 3: we don't know, but I'm to choose to assume Ann

622
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:03,440
Speaker 3: Rodgers at least a top ten quarterback he's on the field.

623
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:06,080
Speaker 3: He has usually been a top three to five quarterback,

624
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 3: So I'm already giving a buffer zone there but him

625
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,240
Speaker 3: out there instead of whatever the heck they had last year,

626
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:16,239
Speaker 3: Like literally number thirty two in quarterbacking is what they

627
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:20,280
Speaker 3: had last year, going from horrendous and damaging at every

628
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 3: turn and whatever others the sours you want to throw out,

629
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: like actively making your team lose. Despite top five offense

630
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 3: or defense, top five special teams, the Jets were dead

631
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 3: last and offense because they had no quarterback. Replacing that

632
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 3: level of quarterback deficiency with even just her Cousins type level.

633
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 3: If that's what Aaron Rodgers is at this point, even

634
00:31:42,320 --> 00:31:46,800
Speaker 3: that is a huge, huge swing and upgrade, and the

635
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 3: offensive line is a big swing. They got Tyrone Smith.

636
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 3: We talked about him with Dallas. He's here now. Now

637
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:55,160
Speaker 3: he has to stay healthy, but when he does, he's awesome.

638
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:57,760
Speaker 3: If I was good as any offensive lineman. Elijah via

639
00:31:57,840 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 3: Tucker hopefully is back this year. I'm Mike Williams, so

640
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 3: they've got him and Garrett Wilson, who I've mentioned as

641
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 3: an O POI contender. Why this team has loaded early

642
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 3: on the schedule is because every guy I just mentioned,

643
00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 3: Aaron Rodgers, Mike Williams, Vera Tucker, Tyron Smith.

644
00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 1: A mature draft pick by the Jets. I thought they're

645
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: going to go and take.

646
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 4: The a dune's ay or a shiny new toy like

647
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 4: Bowers that if Shano was the smart objectively, I think

648
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 4: correct pick too often.

649
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, they added the swing tackle there, which is important

650
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 3: because the point about the other veterans is that we're

651
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 3: not really too sure if you'll be playing in October,

652
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 3: in November, December, because they all get injured every year.

653
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,239
Speaker 3: So this is a team where it could go very

654
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 3: poorly with I don't know that I really want to

655
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 3: bet on the coaching staff necessarily, this is not that,

656
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 3: but I do want to bet on the defense. We

657
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 3: know the defense is good. They're great. They basically have

658
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 3: all the stars back that added Hassan Raddick and Chavon

659
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:56,680
Speaker 3: Kinla on the defensive line. Like that defense is gonna

660
00:32:56,680 --> 00:33:00,440
Speaker 3: be nasty. It is truly heroic how good the defense

661
00:33:00,680 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 3: was last year with not just no offense, like negative offense.

662
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,200
Speaker 3: They were putting the defense consistently in terrible positions and

663
00:33:08,360 --> 00:33:12,520
Speaker 3: still performing that well. So again, to switch from a

664
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 3: bottom ten offensive line to a top ten offensive line

665
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:18,959
Speaker 3: and the worst quarterback situation to whatever Aaron Rodgers can

666
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,479
Speaker 3: give you is such a huge swing with the great defense,

667
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 3: with the special teams. To me, this is a team

668
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 3: that you have to remember you're betting on outlayer outcomes,

669
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 3: not median outcomes. So I like them to win the division.

670
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:34,719
Speaker 3: They've got pretty good odds to win the division at

671
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 3: plus two forty. But I don't mind if you want

672
00:33:39,080 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 3: to skip that one and say, okay, but if they

673
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 3: win the division, haven't they won eleven to twelve games

674
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 3: at least because it's a tough division. Miami Buffalo are

675
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 3: gonna get some wins. And if they win twelve to

676
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 3: thirteen games somewhere in that range, are they the one

677
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 3: seed now or they the two seed? They got a

678
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 3: couple of home games and the playoffs. Could they go further?

679
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 3: And I think you want to bet on the outlier

680
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 3: outcomes for the team. If you want to bet on

681
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 3: under seven wins, fine, that's an outlier outcome too. They

682
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:07,719
Speaker 3: maybe things go horribly and all the guys get injured.

683
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:11,000
Speaker 3: I'd be fine betting both sides of the outlier. I

684
00:34:11,160 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 3: just think the positive upside of what things could be

685
00:34:15,200 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 3: if they go right is so good for this team,

686
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 3: I think, as good as any other team in the AFC,

687
00:34:21,320 --> 00:34:23,839
Speaker 3: and I'm gonna go ahead and say literally any other team,

688
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 3: I'm gonna include the Chiefs on that if things hit

689
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 3: for the Jets with this good of a defense and

690
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,799
Speaker 3: the pieces there on offense. Breecee hollid And mentioned as

691
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 3: well as like everything is there if it's right, and

692
00:34:35,920 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 3: the pricing right now is assuming it's not going to

693
00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: be right, which I think is the right assumption. That's

694
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,439
Speaker 3: the most likely outcome. But we don't care about most

695
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,800
Speaker 3: likely outcomes. We care about what if we get that

696
00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 3: top three percentail outcome, as it better When you're betting

697
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 3: a long shot, that's the team you want. And I

698
00:34:51,480 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 3: think the Jets are not being priced appropriately as a

699
00:34:54,719 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 3: long shot. They're being priced for their median outcome, and

700
00:34:57,920 --> 00:34:59,840
Speaker 3: I think we can take advantage of that. So this

701
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 3: the team that I continue to think as being somehow underdiscussed,

702
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 3: despite that it's New York and Aaron Rodgers. I don't

703
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 3: know how we're doing this with that team. Of all teams,

704
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:10,879
Speaker 3: I think they look really good.

705
00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:15,080
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734
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 4: All right, let's zip through the rest of these. We've

735
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 4: got a couple more risers. We've got the Jaguars next.

736
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,560
Speaker 4: The Jaguars are your next riser. And that connects back

737
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 4: to Texans being out as one of your followers.

738
00:37:14,760 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll be honest this all of my risers really

739
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:18,160
Speaker 3: have all the teams they're talking about, this is the

740
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 3: one I feel least confident about, so I would not

741
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 3: run to bet this necessarily. This is I needed an

742
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 3: AFC South team because the Texans route. I mean, it's somebody, Honestly,

743
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:28,959
Speaker 3: I thought it'd be the Colts. I really like Shane

744
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,440
Speaker 3: Steichen what he did with the team last year. I

745
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 3: liked the idea of Anthony Richardson. If he would play

746
00:37:33,920 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 3: more than like two games and complete them, that'd be

747
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:40,000
Speaker 3: real nice. I don't love the Colts roster. It seems

748
00:37:40,160 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 3: very like high floor, low ceiling. That's sort of what

749
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,719
Speaker 3: Indianapolis does. Jacksonville started eight and three last year. They

750
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,320
Speaker 3: lost five of their last six, but they were a

751
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,520
Speaker 3: team that I was betting against last year. That that

752
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 3: was my cap on Texans Island was heavily influenced by

753
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 3: fading the Jaguars. They had a really brutal schedule. They

754
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 3: have a similar thing this year where where they play

755
00:38:01,960 --> 00:38:05,520
Speaker 3: weeks six and seven, they have back to back London games.

756
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 3: They don't know about bye week till Week twelve, so

757
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:11,839
Speaker 3: this is weird, like long overseas thing, and then still

758
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 3: a month of games before they get a little stretch

759
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:18,439
Speaker 3: to catch their legs again. But Jacksonville is a team

760
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,759
Speaker 3: that I think it's buying into the post type a

761
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 3: little bit. I don't know why they should be priced

762
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:27,120
Speaker 3: any differently than the Colts or than the Texans. You

763
00:38:27,239 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 3: still have Doug Peterson. You still have Trevor Lawrence. I

764
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,840
Speaker 3: think that's the best coach quarterback combo in the division

765
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:36,800
Speaker 3: still based on the amount of what we've seen. The

766
00:38:36,920 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 3: defense was really good last year. Tyson Campbell, Andre Cisco,

767
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 3: those are rising stars in the secondary. Josh Allen had

768
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:46,840
Speaker 3: a big season for them. I like the receivers they added.

769
00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,439
Speaker 3: Brian Thomas I think will be really good. Christian Kirk

770
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 3: missed some games last year. He's really important for them.

771
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 3: Another thing too, they started the year last year with

772
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 3: Press Taylor calling plays and it went horribly. It was

773
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,600
Speaker 3: so bad for them. That's done, so I can trust

774
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 3: that not to be in the way again this year.

775
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,839
Speaker 3: I hope I like Jacksonville enough. I didn't really think

776
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:10,200
Speaker 3: I would. I thought they'd be my third team here,

777
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:13,040
Speaker 3: even fourth, just because I faded them so hard last

778
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:15,800
Speaker 3: But sometimes you got to fade the hype, like we

779
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 3: are with Houston right now. Maybe I'm back in on

780
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:20,760
Speaker 3: Houston next year. Maybe they fall a little bit, missed

781
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 3: the playoffs, and you come back to the island and

782
00:39:23,560 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 3: you know there's a little bit more space there the

783
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 3: year after. I think that's kind of the spot with Jacksonville, though,

784
00:39:28,040 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 3: I will say this, I peakd the schedule weeks one

785
00:39:32,040 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 3: through four for Jacksonville at Miami, Cleveland at Buffalo at Houston.

786
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 3: WO that is a rough opening on schedule. So I'm

787
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 3: not totally convinced on them, and I'm not betting them

788
00:39:44,200 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 3: right now because to me, you mentioned Houston schedule being

789
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 3: pretty soft starting out, this smells like a spot where

790
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 3: Houston starts four and two. Jacksonville's like two and four,

791
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 3: and then now when the hype is really gone between,

792
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:01,400
Speaker 3: that might be the time to buy in. So and

793
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 3: maybe it will be.

794
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 1: The cold that Texans missing the playoffs possibly back then. Okay,

795
00:40:06,480 --> 00:40:10,720
Speaker 1: all right, fair enough, Uh, okay, let's go to the NFC.

796
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:14,160
Speaker 4: So you got three risers in the AFC Bengals, Jets, Jags,

797
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 4: risers in the NFC Saints, which that reflects back to

798
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 4: our first team that we discussed, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

799
00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 1: But you're kind of toying right now with a riser

800
00:40:24,719 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: And is it going to be.

801
00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,640
Speaker 4: The Saints to come out of the NFC South or

802
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:31,240
Speaker 4: possibly Michael Pennocks and the Atlanta Falcons.

803
00:40:31,760 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 3: Possibly Michael Pennix, Kirk Cousins. Whoever it is be great

804
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 3: for eighty to one bat from last week. Be sure

805
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 3: to listen to that episode on Long Shots if you didn't.

806
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,520
Speaker 3: To me, the Falcons are what the Saints were a

807
00:40:43,640 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 3: year ago. They're the team where everybody is like, well,

808
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:50,280
Speaker 3: the division sucks, nobody's good. I guess it's Atlanta. Atlanta

809
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 3: has like best odds to make the playoffs right now,

810
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 3: which is absurd to me. We don't know what Kirk

811
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,120
Speaker 3: Cousins is even going to be on this team. We've

812
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 3: never seen what those roster. We don't know how he's

813
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 3: going to come back from his injury much later in

814
00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:06,480
Speaker 3: the year than Rogers was and the last mobile quarterback

815
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 3: to start with. And the Falcons weren't good last year.

816
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 3: The defense is not that good. The offense has a

817
00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 3: couple of weapons, but we're kind of still trying to

818
00:41:14,640 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 3: figure out what they can do. It should be better

819
00:41:17,000 --> 00:41:21,280
Speaker 3: without Arthur Smith around to muck things up. But Atlanta

820
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 3: is minus three twenty to make the playoffs. That is

821
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:26,560
Speaker 3: a crazy number to me, and the look the response

822
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:28,320
Speaker 3: is going to be, well, yeah, but they got the

823
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:30,320
Speaker 3: number one strength of schedule this year. They got the

824
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 3: easiest schedule. Guess who had the best schedule last year

825
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 3: the Saints. The Saints had the best schedule, They had

826
00:41:36,239 --> 00:41:38,320
Speaker 3: the easy schedule in the bad division. They signed a

827
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:42,000
Speaker 3: brand new mid quarterback in Derek Carr, and I was like, well,

828
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:44,640
Speaker 3: the roster is already pretty good. Easy schedule, they got

829
00:41:44,680 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 3: the mid quarterback, easy division winner wasn't the case. So

830
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 3: I'm going fading the hype again here. I'm gonna fade

831
00:41:51,560 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 3: the Falcons. Plus two to fifty to mess I think

832
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: is a crazy number, and I think, why not the Saints.

833
00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:00,120
Speaker 3: I would rather have Derek Carr in year two? You

834
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 3: in the system healthy, I think, then Kirk Cousins news system,

835
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:07,240
Speaker 3: and you know a guy that's bounced around a little

836
00:42:07,280 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 3: bit in his career and coming off the injury. I

837
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:13,560
Speaker 3: don't know. I think Derek Carr in the second year. Now,

838
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 3: granted he gets a new offense too, so maybe that

839
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,480
Speaker 3: doesn't count for him. It's Clint Kubiak, Now. I think

840
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:20,440
Speaker 3: that's good for the team. Could be tough on him.

841
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,000
Speaker 3: By the way, I like about New Orleans. I think

842
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,400
Speaker 3: they have the best unit in the division, which is

843
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 3: their defense. The defense has been good year after year

844
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 3: after year. You know, I love to faate Dennis Allen,

845
00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 3: but Dennis Allen with the defense is always very good.

846
00:42:34,000 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 3: That it Chase Young. They're gonna get more Lottimore this year,

847
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,439
Speaker 3: he missed half the season. They get our guy kool

848
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 3: Aid McKinstry, big smile. We love him, We love a

849
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 3: little kool Aid. On the defense. I think the defense

850
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 3: is good. I think Derek Carr is fine. I think

851
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 3: there's a high floor here and in the NFC South.

852
00:42:51,400 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 3: Don't you just need a floor, don't just need to

853
00:42:53,200 --> 00:42:56,319
Speaker 3: get nine wins? The Saints won nine games last year.

854
00:42:56,360 --> 00:42:58,959
Speaker 3: The Saints almost made the playoffs last year, and really

855
00:42:59,000 --> 00:43:00,800
Speaker 3: they were the better team than the Bucks. They just

856
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 3: didn't quite get in. So I think this is just

857
00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,600
Speaker 3: kind of mispriced. I think this is an eagerness to

858
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 3: buy the hype on Atlanta and it's you know, I'm

859
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:10,759
Speaker 3: kind of anti hipster on this one, I guess. And

860
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:14,760
Speaker 3: I just think we'll buy the post hype on the Saints,

861
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 3: and I think they're the team to back here.

862
00:43:16,880 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, if they can.

863
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,840
Speaker 4: They see they can get one more run out of

864
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,640
Speaker 4: their defense, and they got a little younger, as you

865
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 4: noted on some of their draft picks.

866
00:43:24,200 --> 00:43:27,360
Speaker 1: They signed young. They can stitch it together and be

867
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:30,520
Speaker 1: just a bit healthier. That makes some sense.

868
00:43:30,560 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 4: I would just throw in quickly the Michael Pennock's number

869
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,239
Speaker 4: to lead all rookies and passing.

870
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:39,320
Speaker 1: Guards is down to plus fifty five hundred.

871
00:43:39,560 --> 00:43:41,800
Speaker 3: No, oh man, we moved the markets. Brandon.

872
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 1: There you go, all right, two more second riser out

873
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:47,720
Speaker 1: of the NFC.

874
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 3: What do you got?

875
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: Yeah?

876
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 3: This one surprised me. I wasn't really even thinking a

877
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 3: lot about this team beforehand, but I kind of like

878
00:43:53,520 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 3: the Seattle Seahawks this year. And this we mentioned with

879
00:43:56,719 --> 00:44:00,880
Speaker 3: the Ravens earlier losing Mike McDonald, while Seattle gained Mike McDonald,

880
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,680
Speaker 3: and I think that their defense that has not really

881
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 3: been that good and they need to they need to

882
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,280
Speaker 3: add some piece of still, but they get a little younger,

883
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:12,719
Speaker 3: they get more athletic, and having Mike McDonald to weaponize

884
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 3: the guys he has on defense, I think it's gonna

885
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 3: be huge for that team. They're bottom five in DVA

886
00:44:18,000 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 3: last season, and what Mike McDonald can do to change

887
00:44:21,520 --> 00:44:26,120
Speaker 3: that and improve them. Especially Devin Witherspoon, the sophomore corner

888
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:28,799
Speaker 3: for them. I think he is so much more than

889
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:32,520
Speaker 3: a corner. I think the way that we watched I'm

890
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 3: blanking on his name. Who's the safety Kyle Hamilton? The

891
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:39,360
Speaker 3: way that Kyle Hamilton has been absolutely unleashed for Baltimore

892
00:44:39,480 --> 00:44:44,719
Speaker 3: as a safety, nickel, pass rush, everything, That's what I

893
00:44:44,760 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 3: think Devin Witherspoon is gonna be. I'll even tell you this,

894
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:51,280
Speaker 3: I think Devin Witherspoon will be a top three defensive

895
00:44:51,320 --> 00:44:53,320
Speaker 3: player of that your odds. At some point this season.

896
00:44:53,600 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 3: He's gonna have a stretch where he's like, Hey, you

897
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,400
Speaker 3: know who's really good right now? That guy Devin Witherspoon

898
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:01,319
Speaker 3: from Illinois playing in Seattle. He's doing everything for them.

899
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,239
Speaker 3: So I'm excited for the defense and I'm excited for

900
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 3: the offense. Shane Waldren good offensive coordinator. He's gone. Now

901
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 3: who do we got? Brian Grubb who just you know,

902
00:45:10,640 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 3: we talked about Michael Pennix. They didn't get Michael Pennis

903
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 3: in Clay thought they might, but they got his play caller,

904
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 3: who I think is probably the better asset. And I

905
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 3: think bringing Brian Grubb in to stretch the field in

906
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:26,880
Speaker 3: attack down field with DK Metcalf, with Tyler Lockett, with

907
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,320
Speaker 3: Jackson Smith and Jagba who is injured last year and

908
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,480
Speaker 3: Kendall was a lost rookie season. Those are good weapons.

909
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:35,799
Speaker 3: Gino Smith is a good quarterback. Like we're here, Gino

910
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 3: is a quality NFL top twelve fifteenish range quarterback and

911
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 3: with a good coordinator. Look, he just look what you

912
00:45:44,640 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 3: just got the Michael Penix. If you can do those

913
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:48,160
Speaker 3: with Michael Penicks, how about Gino Smith, who's already a

914
00:45:48,160 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 3: good NFL quarterback. I hate to say it, but I

915
00:45:51,160 --> 00:45:52,920
Speaker 3: just feel like the offense should be pretty good. They

916
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:55,520
Speaker 3: already were good. They were twelve in DVLA, and I

917
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,360
Speaker 3: think we get some deep plays, we get some defensive improvement.

918
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:01,800
Speaker 3: This is a team that I haven't thought much about,

919
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 3: And now I'm kind of like, you know what, Mike

920
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:05,879
Speaker 3: McDonald Coach of the Year. I could kind of see

921
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:08,880
Speaker 3: that a little bit. It's the top division. We've got

922
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 3: one more team of this division to talk about still here.

923
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 3: But I think Seattle is a team that could surprise,

924
00:46:14,000 --> 00:46:15,719
Speaker 3: and it's just sort off the radar right now. I

925
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:19,040
Speaker 3: haven't heard much about them. New staff.

926
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll's still in the building getting kicked upstairs. We'll

927
00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: see what they do with quarterback.

928
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 4: And he thought that they would end up being a

929
00:46:25,520 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 4: team that takes Pennix or a bow Nix down at

930
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:29,439
Speaker 4: the end of the draft and the first round, maybe

931
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 4: second round early, but not the case as we found out. Okay,

932
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 4: but potentially, I'm not going to put this on you

933
00:46:36,960 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 4: like as a firm thing, because I think it's still

934
00:46:39,920 --> 00:46:40,719
Speaker 4: in the crop pot.

935
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 1: It's still kind of it's heating up though.

936
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,920
Speaker 4: Your new Island team potentially is another team for the

937
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:51,200
Speaker 4: NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals. That is how we'll wrap

938
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,840
Speaker 4: this up. Your sixth and final riser. You're third in

939
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:56,720
Speaker 4: the NFC, the Arizona Cardinals.

940
00:46:57,800 --> 00:46:59,160
Speaker 3: You know, I need a long shot on here. I

941
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 3: need to get spicy a little bit, but I won't lie.

942
00:47:02,200 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 3: This is definitely still in the slow cooker, like we're

943
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:07,839
Speaker 3: still in the early phase here. I'm adding a few

944
00:47:07,960 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 3: spices here and there is bubbling. I'm not really too sure.

945
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:16,000
Speaker 3: So in the NFC, the presumed risers that we didn't

946
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:18,560
Speaker 3: go with here we mentioned the Falcons, they would be

947
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 3: the obvious pick to go in here, they're like, they're

948
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 3: basically the Bengals out of the NFC as far as

949
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:25,359
Speaker 3: how they're being priced, which again is why I think

950
00:47:25,400 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 3: the price is absurd.

951
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 2: On them.

952
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 3: The Chicago Bears are minus ovs to make the playoffs.

953
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 3: I can't get into the Bears here a low on time,

954
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,439
Speaker 3: but I think that's a crazy number. Two. I can't

955
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:39,000
Speaker 3: go with the Bears here in a rookie quarterback. I'd

956
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,759
Speaker 3: rather have the quarterback that everyone's comparing Caleb Williams two,

957
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,399
Speaker 3: Kyler Murray, who should get a full season from him

958
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:50,600
Speaker 3: with a stud receiver. Now, Marvin Harrison Junior is that dude.

959
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 3: He's gonna step in right away, and a lot to

960
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 3: this offense With Kyler Murray, they were the number one

961
00:47:56,120 --> 00:47:58,400
Speaker 3: rushing team down the stretch back half of the season.

962
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:00,960
Speaker 3: To me, this is a bad on Marvin Harrison and

963
00:48:01,040 --> 00:48:04,320
Speaker 3: Caller Murray, but especially a bet on the coaching staff.

964
00:48:04,840 --> 00:48:08,399
Speaker 3: I really really like Drew Petsing's offense last year. He's

965
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,440
Speaker 3: a dude. I knew like nothing about going to the season,

966
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:13,440
Speaker 3: and we saw them really just take guys off the

967
00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 3: scrap heap and a team that I thought was easily

968
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:19,320
Speaker 3: the least talented roster and really make a real offense

969
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:21,800
Speaker 3: out of them. Now he gets some pieces. Now he

970
00:48:21,880 --> 00:48:25,719
Speaker 3: gets Caller Murray and Marvin Harrison Junior. The defense you

971
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 3: got John gannon coaching, you got Nick Rallis leaving the defense,

972
00:48:29,600 --> 00:48:31,440
Speaker 3: they get to work cut out for them. I'm not

973
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:33,840
Speaker 3: gonna lie. The defense lacks a lot of talent, Like

974
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:37,040
Speaker 3: that's the problem with this bet is it's just not

975
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:39,200
Speaker 3: a great defense. So you're gonna really have to rely

976
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 3: on coaching to pull the defense together. You get a

977
00:48:42,520 --> 00:48:45,200
Speaker 3: fourth place schedule, SA means in the NFC, you get

978
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,520
Speaker 3: to play Washington, you get to play Chicago and Carolina.

979
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 3: So that's good, but they ranked dead last DVOA defensively

980
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:55,440
Speaker 3: last year. I believe in the offense. I think this

981
00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:58,439
Speaker 3: is a top half of the league offense. I don't

982
00:48:58,480 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 3: know if I believe in the defense yet on it

983
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:03,560
Speaker 3: and you know, I've been trying out the Cardinals Island thing.

984
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 3: Then I got to the schedule. I don't think the

985
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:08,920
Speaker 3: NFL believes in Cardinals Island because here's the schedule that

986
00:49:09,000 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 3: we got. We're starting out in Buffalo, you know who

987
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 3: I'm fading, but maybe not to start the season in

988
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:19,000
Speaker 3: week one necessarily. Then we got the Rams and Allions

989
00:49:19,080 --> 00:49:22,080
Speaker 3: playoff teams a year ago. Washington, all right, you can

990
00:49:22,160 --> 00:49:25,160
Speaker 3: win that one. Then at Santa Fran at Green Bay.

991
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:29,719
Speaker 3: That is a brutal opening six stretch five playoff teams

992
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:33,120
Speaker 3: from a year ago. Washington, you get the young quarterback,

993
00:49:33,200 --> 00:49:36,920
Speaker 3: new coaching, like, I don't know, man, this might be

994
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 3: done on arrival. We will see.

995
00:49:38,400 --> 00:49:41,480
Speaker 4: We'll see Brandon in the action app week seven, betting

996
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 4: Cardinals to.

997
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 3: Make them much. That might be it. It's I I

998
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:52,200
Speaker 3: maybe I may be slowly drifting from Cardinals Island to

999
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 3: Seahawks Island in the division here because I was already like, man,

1000
00:49:55,239 --> 00:49:57,960
Speaker 3: I don't know. I wanted to fade the forty nine

1001
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 3: ers totally. Kyle Shanahan is is an all or nothing coach.

1002
00:50:01,840 --> 00:50:04,279
Speaker 3: I think every year he's coached, his team has either

1003
00:50:04,360 --> 00:50:07,960
Speaker 3: made the NFC Championship or missed the playoffs completely. So

1004
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 3: I wanted I want this all started with who's my

1005
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 3: worst first team this year? And I looked at Carolina

1006
00:50:14,840 --> 00:50:16,520
Speaker 3: and that was a little too spicy for me, and

1007
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:18,440
Speaker 3: I was like, well, how about Arizona. There's some stuff

1008
00:50:18,480 --> 00:50:21,239
Speaker 3: I like here, but part of worst of first you

1009
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 3: got to have a division that's winnable. I don't know

1010
00:50:23,360 --> 00:50:26,399
Speaker 3: the Niners, and frankly, the Rams and the Seahawks both

1011
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 3: so good, so I don't know we're still test driving

1012
00:50:30,200 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 3: Cardinals Island. We may end up driving off the cliff

1013
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:36,360
Speaker 3: and ejecting for another team here, so we'll end with

1014
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 3: that one. But I'm probably not gonna go too crazy

1015
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:40,680
Speaker 3: and all my Cardinals stock just yet.

1016
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:44,560
Speaker 1: Okay, very good Brandon Anderson, great work as always. Just

1017
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 1: to recap his six fallers in the NFL.

1018
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:53,520
Speaker 4: Postseason for twenty twenty four twenty five falling out of

1019
00:50:53,560 --> 00:50:57,200
Speaker 4: the playoffs. They made it this past year, Buccaneers, Rams,

1020
00:50:57,280 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 4: Cowboys in the NFC, Brown's Texan Bills and the AFC,

1021
00:51:01,200 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 4: and his six risers that will make the playoffs this

1022
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 4: year did not get in last year. He's got Bengals, Jets,

1023
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:11,960
Speaker 4: Jaguars in the AFC and then in the NFC, Saints, Seahawks,

1024
00:51:12,640 --> 00:51:13,280
Speaker 4: and Cardinals.

1025
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:16,520
Speaker 1: Some bets, some are not bets. Again, thank you all

1026
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:17,760
Speaker 1: for listening, very carefully.

1027
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:20,960
Speaker 4: Look for Brandon Anderson in the Action Network app, Actionnetwork

1028
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:24,480
Speaker 4: dot com as this NFL off season continues. But we're

1029
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:26,240
Speaker 4: gonna get into the thick of things as the summer

1030
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 4: begins to unfold. We will return later this week on

1031
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:33,080
Speaker 4: the Action Network podcast with AFC and NFC win Totals

1032
00:51:33,120 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 4: with Chris Raybond, and Stucky, so.

1033
00:51:34,560 --> 00:51:36,319
Speaker 1: Get excited for that content as well.

1034
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:38,879
Speaker 4: Thanks to all of you for listening, See you next

1035
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 4: time here on the Action Network podcast presented by BETTMGM.

1036
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1037
00:51:55,880 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1038
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,600
Speaker 2: help is available to twenty four seven at one eight

1039
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler