Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. I am modestly bullish near term,
Speaker 1: but embarish in the media term. I expect the SMP
Speaker 1: to decline to a low double digit percentage this year.
Speaker 1: I think if we're going to take long dollar positions,
Speaker 1: I think the euro is the way to go right now.
Speaker 1: Short the euro along the dollar. I don't think inflation
Speaker 1: is too low. The public doesn't care that core PC
Speaker 1: inflation is one point four. They're oblivious to it. Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance, and
Speaker 1: investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good Morning across this nation on
Speaker 1: serious and exam Bloomberg twost to Bloomberg eleventh three in
Speaker 1: New York Bay area of Bloomberg FM, Washington as well.
Speaker 1: We're brought to you by Interactive Brokers Are for X
Speaker 1: brief by Interactive Broker's winner of FX Weeks two thousand
Speaker 1: fifteen award for the best retail for X trading platform.
Speaker 1: Visit I d at ibkr dot com slash for X
Speaker 1: quickly Sterling one oh one weeker Sterling still and I'm
Speaker 1: gonna look at Japanese YenS stronger one twelve seven as well.
Speaker 1: Mike on important housing data. We got the case Shiller
Speaker 1: numbers out of four December and Videtal. Judas has those
Speaker 1: at the First Word Desk, Michael. The report track twenty
Speaker 1: major cities year over year December five point seven four
Speaker 1: percent increase in home prices, same as the prior month,
Speaker 1: with red fishions December month over month up point eight percent,
Speaker 1: a bit slower than the prior month. At the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: First World Desk Company Deal Judas, let's go back to
Speaker 1: New York, NY, Vinny, Mike, what do you see there? Um?
Speaker 1: We see steady, steady growth across the country, the national
Speaker 1: index of five point four over the last twelve months.
Speaker 1: I guess you want to live in Tampa, Florida, at
Speaker 1: least you did in December. Terms of the biggest annual
Speaker 1: game nine tenths of eight percent. We're still seeing gains
Speaker 1: in the same city, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas. Um,
Speaker 1: there's a nice first derivative all this Cleveland and behind.
Speaker 1: I'll give you New York down three tents. Good thing
Speaker 1: you're not moving. The Boston is well done for actually
Speaker 1: as well. San Francisco scrolling up goes decidedly the other
Speaker 1: way as well. Let's jump over our equity covers. This morning,
Speaker 1: David Wilson looking at all sorts of stuff. Home Depot
Speaker 1: was jaw dropping. There's no other way to put it.
Speaker 1: Certainly has been well received, no question about that. Home
Speaker 1: Depot shares a three and a half percent in early trading.
Speaker 1: The largest home improvement retailer posted fiscal fourth quarter ownings
Speaker 1: in South the top analysts average estimates in Bluebook. There
Speaker 1: assaults show Home Depot is largely immune to the slumping
Speaker 1: demand faced by other retailers. You've got shares arrival lows
Speaker 1: up about two and a half percent, and that company
Speaker 1: will report fourth quarter results tomorrow. Then you have Macy's
Speaker 1: up five and a half percent. The biggest US department
Speaker 1: store owner, had a smaller decline in fiscal fourth quarter sales,
Speaker 1: and analysts expected adjusted earnings were two dollars nine cents
Speaker 1: of share, which beat the average estimate by twenty one cents.
Speaker 1: On the deal front, Western Digital down eight percent. The
Speaker 1: memory chip maker lost a three point eight billion dollar
Speaker 1: investment from China sing Y unit Splendor, which withdrew after
Speaker 1: learning US regulators would investigate the deal. Even so, Western
Speaker 1: Digital is going ahead with a proposed takeover Sandys. The
Speaker 1: purchase price was cut to fifteen point eight billion dollars
Speaker 1: and Sandy shares are down two percent almost three percent
Speaker 1: now in early trading. Valiant Pharmaceuticals up two and a
Speaker 1: half percent. The drug developer cent will restate earnings for
Speaker 1: last year and the year before. The revisions follow a
Speaker 1: review by Valiant's board of the company's relationship with the
Speaker 1: mail order pharmacy Philidora b HP Billetin down in early
Speaker 1: trading the world's largest mining company reduced a stiff enough
Speaker 1: for the first time in fifteen years after fiscal first
Speaker 1: half earnings plummeted. HP bullet In dually listed company. It's
Speaker 1: Australian shares are down two and a half percent here
Speaker 1: in the US, where they trade as American Depositary Receipts
Speaker 1: a d R s worth. UK shares are down three
Speaker 1: and a half percent. One more, one more. Fit Bit, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I saw that. I thought I knew you were going there.
Speaker 1: You're looking at my stomach down four percent my stomach
Speaker 1: let alone yours, UH, the maker of fitness tracking devices,
Speaker 1: forecast first quarter revenue and ernies would come up short
Speaker 1: of estimates. The outlook reflects the cost of rolling outfit.
Speaker 1: That's newest trackers globally, very good radio. Nobody has to
Speaker 1: look at either one. Yeah, that's an ugly site to
Speaker 1: behold as well. Dan Demo has made a career of
Speaker 1: looking at precious medals and particularly looking at mining with
Speaker 1: us A a out of TCU or he single handedly
Speaker 1: reinvented offensive football. That was crazy what you did a
Speaker 1: couple of years ago. We've had a great comeback. It's
Speaker 1: it's it's been good, wonderful to have you here. We
Speaker 1: hear about you, we never see you. Were thrilled to
Speaker 1: have you in New York. VHP Builliotson I in a
Speaker 1: you their CFO today and it was oddly I mean,
Speaker 1: they're talking about the word hope. What is the hope
Speaker 1: for the global mining industry right now? Well, you gotta
Speaker 1: separate the precious metals from the base metals. For sure,
Speaker 1: Iron were still in an awful glut. Uh. The guy's
Speaker 1: keep producing minds, keep building minds. Uh. Real and beachp
Speaker 1: both continue to build because they can produce the lower
Speaker 1: costs of anybody else. They're gonna try to drive everybody
Speaker 1: out of the businesses, are they? That's a key question,
Speaker 1: is it Mike? This goes back I mentioned it's Andrew
Speaker 1: mellon economics of the thirties. That's the only hope, isn't
Speaker 1: it is? But it's always a false hope because minds
Speaker 1: never closed, because nobody wants to operate them. The banks
Speaker 1: don't want to take them over. So these mines just
Speaker 1: keep going. You're not gonna see China's shut in supply either.
Speaker 1: China needs those jobs. So is your base away from
Speaker 1: your expertise of precious metals? Is your base for lower
Speaker 1: prices or stability at these low prices? Yes? How well,
Speaker 1: what could you tell the guests that single answers on radio? Don't? Sorry?
Speaker 1: I think that what's uh a more detailed explanation, but basically,
Speaker 1: what's the cycle length here? And the cycle is still
Speaker 1: you're gonna have to see steel production shutting because we
Speaker 1: have too much steel production. It was all built for
Speaker 1: a much faster China. It's built for a China growing
Speaker 1: at seven a half eight percent, even up to ten percent.
Speaker 1: China is not growing that fast. It doesn't need that
Speaker 1: much steel. Plus, it's converting to from an infra infrastructure
Speaker 1: economy to a consumer economy. Consumers don't use much steel.
Speaker 1: They buy clothes, they don't buy iron beams, and so
Speaker 1: therefore even you're having to readjust the supply, the whole
Speaker 1: world is having to to adjust. It's China adjusting. I mean,
Speaker 1: there's a lot to talk about how they're keeping all
Speaker 1: these factories open, these minds open because they need to
Speaker 1: keep people employed. Are they actually going to shut in
Speaker 1: this production. We've actually seen the first signs recently where
Speaker 1: they actually where they talked about shutting in production, actually
Speaker 1: going in and paying to layoff people. Uh, but they
Speaker 1: can't afford to. It's one point of their population is
Speaker 1: in the steel meals. You can't lay those people off,
Speaker 1: and they're gonna have a protest the social social issues.
Speaker 1: Let's go over to your expertise and pressures mining. James
Speaker 1: Steele at HSBC on fundamentals, Go on gold. Chris Varona
Speaker 1: Strtigues on charts says, go along gold, not with a
Speaker 1: lot of confidence, but he's there. Are you can you
Speaker 1: link gold price still into gold mining shares? What's that correlation?
Speaker 1: That correlation is very high, and it's actually come back
Speaker 1: that one of the things that makes is very happy
Speaker 1: is the gold mining companies have actually cut the fat.
Speaker 1: They've actually done a good job reducing operating costs. So
Speaker 1: they've returned back to the days of having operating leverage.
Speaker 1: Four years ago. They had no operating leverage because they
Speaker 1: got fat, dumb and happy. Every year gold price to
Speaker 1: go up a hunter Bucks, so they never had to
Speaker 1: control costs because gold price saved him. When gold price
Speaker 1: started following a hunter Bucks every year, you have to
Speaker 1: start cutting costs there now to the level they can
Speaker 1: actually make money at these prices, could make money years.
Speaker 1: I don't want to get you in trouble with the
Speaker 1: USA a compliance pull least. But is there an industry
Speaker 1: performer who has best practices? Not by hold seal, but
Speaker 1: is there's somebody that has best practices in precious metal mining? Yeah?
Speaker 1: By far the CEO has done the best job as
Speaker 1: Mark Bristow at Ringold. He runs every operation, he prices
Speaker 1: everything at a thousand dollar gold. He's been doing that
Speaker 1: for years. Probably the second best that the one who
Speaker 1: reformed everything is Gary Goldberg at Newmont. He was the
Speaker 1: first to come in of the big guys and actually
Speaker 1: start cutting costs. Uh. And he started putting out these
Speaker 1: big in dollar targets for cutting costs, and people would
Speaker 1: ask me, what do you think about that thing? Well,
Speaker 1: it actually ticks me off. If he can find these
Speaker 1: costs savings so easily, what were they doing before? Why
Speaker 1: weren't they managing their business before? They've now come around
Speaker 1: to managing their business. And that's why Newmont is doing
Speaker 1: pretty good. I mean b RS, the symbol b RS.
Speaker 1: The plunge is something. How do you know when to
Speaker 1: buy a wise one? When to buy? You always buy.
Speaker 1: You always have to own a little bit in the
Speaker 1: space because you want it for the defensive characteristics. We
Speaker 1: always tell everybody at USA, if I'm doing well, the
Speaker 1: rest of your portfolio is probably not doing well. So
Speaker 1: you want to root against us where the insurance. We're
Speaker 1: the house insurance. And when you're in the woods, when
Speaker 1: the force getting little dry, if things are looking a
Speaker 1: little more, a little worse, you take on a little
Speaker 1: bit more insurance. When things are looking good, you don't
Speaker 1: want to be in gold. You want to have a
Speaker 1: heavy position in gold because US stocks will do fine,
Speaker 1: European stocks will do fine. It's when things aren't going well,
Speaker 1: when you're worried about things not going well, the gold
Speaker 1: is not gonna do well. Look at the moving ran gold. Wow,
Speaker 1: what a spike up it's been recently, Well, the whole
Speaker 1: space it's been. Why were you here like six weeks ago?
Speaker 1: Nobody wanted to talk to us six weeks ago. See
Speaker 1: your shirt sales, that's right, Yeah, it's it's funny. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we were nobody cared about gold. Tell of a sudden,
Speaker 1: we had a few issues and a few concerns, and
Speaker 1: gold came back in August. People are calling gold the
Speaker 1: barbaric relic. Now now now people want to talk to
Speaker 1: us again. It is an interesting turn. But what is
Speaker 1: driving in? You got worries about US recession. We don't
Speaker 1: think you can go to recession, but that probability has
Speaker 1: increased a little bit. The tenure Treasury showing you that
Speaker 1: we have geo political stability and that's never going away.
Speaker 1: But it's ticked up again. Worries about the global economy
Speaker 1: that's ticked up and central banks continuity value in the currency,
Speaker 1: and that drives gold price is higher. Denbo, he's the
Speaker 1: USA A really decades of expertise on the precious world
Speaker 1: of precious metals. Don't be a stranger. Come back again,
Speaker 1: visiting from San Antonio, UM futures negative two green the
Speaker 1: other way, SP goes up ten points. Sort of the
Speaker 1: churn to the market that we see with the tenure
Speaker 1: up a good six basis points. Now, let's check in
Speaker 1: with John Tucker and get the latest world of national headlines. John,
Speaker 1: all right, thanks to michelsing Microsoft out of Bill Gates
Speaker 1: weighing in on the dispute of Apple's refusal to have
Speaker 1: the FBI break into a terrorists iPhone. I do believe
Speaker 1: that that with the right safeguards, there are cases where
Speaker 1: the government on our behalf like stopping terrorism which could
Speaker 1: get worse in the future, that that that is valuable.
Speaker 1: Gates is stopping by Bloomberg Television and Radio This Morning
Speaker 1: Paul Show. Donald Trump plays to win his third consecutive
Speaker 1: Republican presidential nominating contest tonight when Nevada holds its caucuses,
Speaker 1: and Secretary of State John Kerry bringing details of a
Speaker 1: news Syrians ceasefire to skeptical senators appearing before the Republican
Speaker 1: led Senate for Relations Committee, and members of Congress try
Speaker 1: to head off a New Jersey transit strike authorized for
Speaker 1: March thirteen. Last time New Jersey Railroad employees walked off.
Speaker 1: The job was thirty three years ago. Global News twenty
Speaker 1: four hours a day, power by twenty journalists more than
Speaker 1: one fifty news vireaus around the world. I'm John Tucker.
Speaker 1: John Tucker, thanks so much from New York. Merged surveillance
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