WEBVTT - Denbow: China won't cut commodity supply

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Surveillance. I am modestly bullish near term,

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<v Speaker 1>but embarish in the media term. I expect the SMP

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<v Speaker 1>to decline to a low double digit percentage this year.

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<v Speaker 1>I think if we're going to take long dollar positions,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the euro is the way to go right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Short the euro along the dollar. I don't think inflation

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<v Speaker 1>is too low. The public doesn't care that core PC

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<v Speaker 1>inflation is one point four. They're oblivious to it. Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Surveillance your link to the world of economics, finance, and

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<v Speaker 1>investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good Morning across this nation on

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<v Speaker 1>serious and exam Bloomberg twost to Bloomberg eleventh three in

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<v Speaker 1>New York Bay area of Bloomberg FM, Washington as well.

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<v Speaker 1>We're brought to you by Interactive Brokers Are for X

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<v Speaker 1>brief by Interactive Broker's winner of FX Weeks two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen award for the best retail for X trading platform.

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<v Speaker 1>Visit I d at ibkr dot com slash for X

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<v Speaker 1>quickly Sterling one oh one weeker Sterling still and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>gonna look at Japanese YenS stronger one twelve seven as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike on important housing data. We got the case Shiller

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<v Speaker 1>numbers out of four December and Videtal. Judas has those

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<v Speaker 1>at the First Word Desk, Michael. The report track twenty

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<v Speaker 1>major cities year over year December five point seven four

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<v Speaker 1>percent increase in home prices, same as the prior month,

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<v Speaker 1>with red fishions December month over month up point eight percent,

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<v Speaker 1>a bit slower than the prior month. At the Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>First World Desk Company Deal Judas, let's go back to

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<v Speaker 1>New York, NY, Vinny, Mike, what do you see there? Um?

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<v Speaker 1>We see steady, steady growth across the country, the national

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<v Speaker 1>index of five point four over the last twelve months.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess you want to live in Tampa, Florida, at

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<v Speaker 1>least you did in December. Terms of the biggest annual

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<v Speaker 1>game nine tenths of eight percent. We're still seeing gains

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<v Speaker 1>in the same city, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a nice first derivative all this Cleveland and behind.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll give you New York down three tents. Good thing

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<v Speaker 1>you're not moving. The Boston is well done for actually

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<v Speaker 1>as well. San Francisco scrolling up goes decidedly the other

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<v Speaker 1>way as well. Let's jump over our equity covers. This morning,

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<v Speaker 1>David Wilson looking at all sorts of stuff. Home Depot

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<v Speaker 1>was jaw dropping. There's no other way to put it.

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<v Speaker 1>Certainly has been well received, no question about that. Home

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<v Speaker 1>Depot shares a three and a half percent in early trading.

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<v Speaker 1>The largest home improvement retailer posted fiscal fourth quarter ownings

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<v Speaker 1>in South the top analysts average estimates in Bluebook. There

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<v Speaker 1>assaults show Home Depot is largely immune to the slumping

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<v Speaker 1>demand faced by other retailers. You've got shares arrival lows

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<v Speaker 1>up about two and a half percent, and that company

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<v Speaker 1>will report fourth quarter results tomorrow. Then you have Macy's

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<v Speaker 1>up five and a half percent. The biggest US department

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<v Speaker 1>store owner, had a smaller decline in fiscal fourth quarter sales,

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<v Speaker 1>and analysts expected adjusted earnings were two dollars nine cents

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<v Speaker 1>of share, which beat the average estimate by twenty one cents.

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<v Speaker 1>On the deal front, Western Digital down eight percent. The

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<v Speaker 1>memory chip maker lost a three point eight billion dollar

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<v Speaker 1>investment from China sing Y unit Splendor, which withdrew after

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<v Speaker 1>learning US regulators would investigate the deal. Even so, Western

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<v Speaker 1>Digital is going ahead with a proposed takeover Sandys. The

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<v Speaker 1>purchase price was cut to fifteen point eight billion dollars

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<v Speaker 1>and Sandy shares are down two percent almost three percent

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<v Speaker 1>now in early trading. Valiant Pharmaceuticals up two and a

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<v Speaker 1>half percent. The drug developer cent will restate earnings for

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<v Speaker 1>last year and the year before. The revisions follow a

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<v Speaker 1>review by Valiant's board of the company's relationship with the

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<v Speaker 1>mail order pharmacy Philidora b HP Billetin down in early

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<v Speaker 1>trading the world's largest mining company reduced a stiff enough

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<v Speaker 1>for the first time in fifteen years after fiscal first

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<v Speaker 1>half earnings plummeted. HP bullet In dually listed company. It's

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<v Speaker 1>Australian shares are down two and a half percent here

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<v Speaker 1>in the US, where they trade as American Depositary Receipts

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<v Speaker 1>a d R s worth. UK shares are down three

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<v Speaker 1>and a half percent. One more, one more. Fit Bit, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>I saw that. I thought I knew you were going there.

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<v Speaker 1>You're looking at my stomach down four percent my stomach

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<v Speaker 1>let alone yours, UH, the maker of fitness tracking devices,

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<v Speaker 1>forecast first quarter revenue and ernies would come up short

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<v Speaker 1>of estimates. The outlook reflects the cost of rolling outfit.

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<v Speaker 1>That's newest trackers globally, very good radio. Nobody has to

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<v Speaker 1>look at either one. Yeah, that's an ugly site to

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<v Speaker 1>behold as well. Dan Demo has made a career of

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<v Speaker 1>looking at precious medals and particularly looking at mining with

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<v Speaker 1>us A a out of TCU or he single handedly

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<v Speaker 1>reinvented offensive football. That was crazy what you did a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of years ago. We've had a great comeback. It's

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's been good, wonderful to have you here. We

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<v Speaker 1>hear about you, we never see you. Were thrilled to

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<v Speaker 1>have you in New York. VHP Builliotson I in a

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<v Speaker 1>you their CFO today and it was oddly I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>they're talking about the word hope. What is the hope

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<v Speaker 1>for the global mining industry right now? Well, you gotta

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<v Speaker 1>separate the precious metals from the base metals. For sure,

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<v Speaker 1>Iron were still in an awful glut. Uh. The guy's

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<v Speaker 1>keep producing minds, keep building minds. Uh. Real and beachp

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<v Speaker 1>both continue to build because they can produce the lower

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<v Speaker 1>costs of anybody else. They're gonna try to drive everybody

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<v Speaker 1>out of the businesses, are they? That's a key question,

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<v Speaker 1>is it Mike? This goes back I mentioned it's Andrew

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<v Speaker 1>mellon economics of the thirties. That's the only hope, isn't

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<v Speaker 1>it is? But it's always a false hope because minds

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<v Speaker 1>never closed, because nobody wants to operate them. The banks

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to take them over. So these mines just

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<v Speaker 1>keep going. You're not gonna see China's shut in supply either.

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<v Speaker 1>China needs those jobs. So is your base away from

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<v Speaker 1>your expertise of precious metals? Is your base for lower

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<v Speaker 1>prices or stability at these low prices? Yes? How well,

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<v Speaker 1>what could you tell the guests that single answers on radio? Don't? Sorry?

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<v Speaker 1>I think that what's uh a more detailed explanation, but basically,

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<v Speaker 1>what's the cycle length here? And the cycle is still

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<v Speaker 1>you're gonna have to see steel production shutting because we

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<v Speaker 1>have too much steel production. It was all built for

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<v Speaker 1>a much faster China. It's built for a China growing

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<v Speaker 1>at seven a half eight percent, even up to ten percent.

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<v Speaker 1>China is not growing that fast. It doesn't need that

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<v Speaker 1>much steel. Plus, it's converting to from an infra infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>economy to a consumer economy. Consumers don't use much steel.

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<v Speaker 1>They buy clothes, they don't buy iron beams, and so

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<v Speaker 1>therefore even you're having to readjust the supply, the whole

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<v Speaker 1>world is having to to adjust. It's China adjusting. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot to talk about how they're keeping all

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<v Speaker 1>these factories open, these minds open because they need to

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<v Speaker 1>keep people employed. Are they actually going to shut in

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<v Speaker 1>this production. We've actually seen the first signs recently where

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<v Speaker 1>they actually where they talked about shutting in production, actually

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<v Speaker 1>going in and paying to layoff people. Uh, but they

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<v Speaker 1>can't afford to. It's one point of their population is

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<v Speaker 1>in the steel meals. You can't lay those people off,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're gonna have a protest the social social issues.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's go over to your expertise and pressures mining. James

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<v Speaker 1>Steele at HSBC on fundamentals, Go on gold. Chris Varona

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<v Speaker 1>Strtigues on charts says, go along gold, not with a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of confidence, but he's there. Are you can you

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<v Speaker 1>link gold price still into gold mining shares? What's that correlation?

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<v Speaker 1>That correlation is very high, and it's actually come back

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<v Speaker 1>that one of the things that makes is very happy

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<v Speaker 1>is the gold mining companies have actually cut the fat.

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<v Speaker 1>They've actually done a good job reducing operating costs. So

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<v Speaker 1>they've returned back to the days of having operating leverage.

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<v Speaker 1>Four years ago. They had no operating leverage because they

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<v Speaker 1>got fat, dumb and happy. Every year gold price to

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<v Speaker 1>go up a hunter Bucks, so they never had to

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<v Speaker 1>control costs because gold price saved him. When gold price

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<v Speaker 1>started following a hunter Bucks every year, you have to

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<v Speaker 1>start cutting costs there now to the level they can

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<v Speaker 1>actually make money at these prices, could make money years.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't want to get you in trouble with the

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<v Speaker 1>USA a compliance pull least. But is there an industry

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<v Speaker 1>performer who has best practices? Not by hold seal, but

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<v Speaker 1>is there's somebody that has best practices in precious metal mining? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>By far the CEO has done the best job as

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<v Speaker 1>Mark Bristow at Ringold. He runs every operation, he prices

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<v Speaker 1>everything at a thousand dollar gold. He's been doing that

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<v Speaker 1>for years. Probably the second best that the one who

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<v Speaker 1>reformed everything is Gary Goldberg at Newmont. He was the

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<v Speaker 1>first to come in of the big guys and actually

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<v Speaker 1>start cutting costs. Uh. And he started putting out these

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<v Speaker 1>big in dollar targets for cutting costs, and people would

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<v Speaker 1>ask me, what do you think about that thing? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it actually ticks me off. If he can find these

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<v Speaker 1>costs savings so easily, what were they doing before? Why

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<v Speaker 1>weren't they managing their business before? They've now come around

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<v Speaker 1>to managing their business. And that's why Newmont is doing

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good. I mean b RS, the symbol b RS.

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<v Speaker 1>The plunge is something. How do you know when to

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<v Speaker 1>buy a wise one? When to buy? You always buy.

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<v Speaker 1>You always have to own a little bit in the

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<v Speaker 1>space because you want it for the defensive characteristics. We

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<v Speaker 1>always tell everybody at USA, if I'm doing well, the

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<v Speaker 1>rest of your portfolio is probably not doing well. So

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<v Speaker 1>you want to root against us where the insurance. We're

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<v Speaker 1>the house insurance. And when you're in the woods, when

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<v Speaker 1>the force getting little dry, if things are looking a

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<v Speaker 1>little more, a little worse, you take on a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit more insurance. When things are looking good, you don't

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<v Speaker 1>want to be in gold. You want to have a

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<v Speaker 1>heavy position in gold because US stocks will do fine,

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<v Speaker 1>European stocks will do fine. It's when things aren't going well,

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<v Speaker 1>when you're worried about things not going well, the gold

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<v Speaker 1>is not gonna do well. Look at the moving ran gold. Wow,

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<v Speaker 1>what a spike up it's been recently, Well, the whole

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<v Speaker 1>space it's been. Why were you here like six weeks ago?

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<v Speaker 1>Nobody wanted to talk to us six weeks ago. See

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<v Speaker 1>your shirt sales, that's right, Yeah, it's it's funny. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we were nobody cared about gold. Tell of a sudden,

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<v Speaker 1>we had a few issues and a few concerns, and

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<v Speaker 1>gold came back in August. People are calling gold the

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<v Speaker 1>barbaric relic. Now now now people want to talk to

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<v Speaker 1>us again. It is an interesting turn. But what is

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<v Speaker 1>driving in? You got worries about US recession. We don't

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<v Speaker 1>think you can go to recession, but that probability has

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<v Speaker 1>increased a little bit. The tenure Treasury showing you that

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<v Speaker 1>we have geo political stability and that's never going away.

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<v Speaker 1>But it's ticked up again. Worries about the global economy

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<v Speaker 1>that's ticked up and central banks continuity value in the currency,

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<v Speaker 1>and that drives gold price is higher. Denbo, he's the

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<v Speaker 1>USA A really decades of expertise on the precious world

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<v Speaker 1>of precious metals. Don't be a stranger. Come back again,

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<v Speaker 1>visiting from San Antonio, UM futures negative two green the

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<v Speaker 1>other way, SP goes up ten points. Sort of the

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<v Speaker 1>churn to the market that we see with the tenure

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<v Speaker 1>up a good six basis points. Now, let's check in

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<v Speaker 1>with John Tucker and get the latest world of national headlines. John,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, thanks to michelsing Microsoft out of Bill Gates

0:10:58.840 --> 0:11:01.440
<v Speaker 1>weighing in on the dispute of Apple's refusal to have

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<v Speaker 1>the FBI break into a terrorists iPhone. I do believe

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<v Speaker 1>that that with the right safeguards, there are cases where

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<v Speaker 1>the government on our behalf like stopping terrorism which could

0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:18.240
<v Speaker 1>get worse in the future, that that that is valuable.

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<v Speaker 1>Gates is stopping by Bloomberg Television and Radio This Morning

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<v Speaker 1>Paul Show. Donald Trump plays to win his third consecutive

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<v Speaker 1>Republican presidential nominating contest tonight when Nevada holds its caucuses,

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<v Speaker 1>and Secretary of State John Kerry bringing details of a

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<v Speaker 1>news Syrians ceasefire to skeptical senators appearing before the Republican

0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:41.240
<v Speaker 1>led Senate for Relations Committee, and members of Congress try

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<v Speaker 1>to head off a New Jersey transit strike authorized for

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<v Speaker 1>March thirteen. Last time New Jersey Railroad employees walked off.

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<v Speaker 1>The job was thirty three years ago. Global News twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four hours a day, power by twenty journalists more than

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<v Speaker 1>one fifty news vireaus around the world. I'm John Tucker.

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<v Speaker 1>John Tucker, thanks so much from New York. Merged surveillance

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<v Speaker 1>market drivers brought you by your Mercedes Ben's Tri State Dealer.

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