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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcast.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast, presented by bet MGM,

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Speaker 1: Brendan glass Sheen and the host chair Billy Ward and

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Speaker 1: Sean Zerlo are standing by. We'll be providing UFC Fight

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Speaker 1: Night best bets. We've got Perez and Tyra on the

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Speaker 1: main event for this week at the Apex in Las Vegas.

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Speaker 1: But first before we go to those guys, we go

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Speaker 1: to the hotline for boxing. Brian Fonseca joins us to

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Speaker 1: break down a couple of title fights on the boxing

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Speaker 1: card this week. Brian, thanks for stopping by. He's one

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Speaker 1: of our Action net Work boxing contributors. Two world title

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Speaker 1: fights live on pay per view Saturday night at eight Eastern.

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Speaker 1: We've got Gravanta Davis taking on Frank Martin in the

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Speaker 1: main event, and then we also have David Benevedez and

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Speaker 1: Alexander Vodzdik contributing to our breakdowns here. Brian's joining us, So, Brian,

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Speaker 1: I'll let you take it away here. Maybe a best

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Speaker 1: bet on each of these fights?

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Speaker 3: Please? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: For Javona Davis versus Frank Martin. This one's a little

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Speaker 4: tough from the standpoint of just betting, Geronza Davis is

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Speaker 4: almost absolutely going to win this fight. Frank Martin is good,

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Speaker 4: but this is sort of an A level fighter versus

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Speaker 4: B level fighter.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes this happens.

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Speaker 4: Actually in boxing, a lot of times this happens, and

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Speaker 4: Frank Martin, while undefeated, hasn't fought anyone at Gavonta Davis's level,

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Speaker 4: even though he would maintain that Gervonta Davis hasn't beaten anybody.

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Speaker 4: I think Geronza Davis ultimately gets it done late. He's

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Speaker 4: a slow starter. This is his first fight since last April,

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Speaker 4: when he beat Ryan Garcia in a very high profile

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Speaker 4: bout in twenty twenty three, and this is his first

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Speaker 4: fight in over a year. Frank Martin also hasn't foughten

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Speaker 4: close to a year, and his last win was a

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Speaker 4: questionable one.

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Speaker 3: He got a favorable decision.

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Speaker 4: We'll say not that he didn't deserve to win the fight,

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Speaker 4: but it was at least at least controversial the decision.

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Speaker 4: So I think Gervonta Davis is going to get started

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Speaker 4: late in this fight. He is not somebody who finishes

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Speaker 4: guys early unless they're so overmatched, but he will catch

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Speaker 4: him between round.

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Speaker 3: Seven through twelve.

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Speaker 4: My estimation, I bet that at plus one thirty five

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Speaker 4: at one book. He tends to get guys later on.

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Speaker 4: Ryan Garcia was round seven. Hector Luis Garcia before that

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Speaker 4: was round nine. He actually retired on his stool. And

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Speaker 4: I think Frank Martin, you know, has some survival tactics

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Speaker 4: and it's going to be interesting how he sort of

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Speaker 4: survives because he's not somebody who's a big volume puncher.

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Speaker 4: So I think Gervonadavis is going to figure out ways

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Speaker 4: to close the gap and then ultimately finish him.

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Speaker 1: And that's another your your angle of going about it.

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Speaker 1: It seems a better way than having to lay minus

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Speaker 1: seven hundred the money line, which is his current price

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Speaker 1: as we recorded Friday morning.

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Speaker 5: Okay, let's go to the Let's go to the.

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Speaker 4: Other one co feature. David Benavidez Olexander Vostik. David Benavidez

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Speaker 4: is someone who's drawing a lot of excitement, Like when

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Speaker 4: they bring him out to these events, he gets probably

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Speaker 4: the biggest pop because he's an action fighter. He has

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Speaker 4: ridiculous stamina. People think he can beat Canelo Alvarez, I'm

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Speaker 4: probably one of those people.

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Speaker 3: At this point. He's moving up to.

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Speaker 4: Light heavyweight because he got very impatient with Conelo Alvarez

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Speaker 4: waiting for a fight at super middleweight. So he's fighting

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Speaker 4: Alexander Vostik, who his only loss was to archer Vetter

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Speaker 4: Beev in twenty nineteen. That was by stoppage. Vos Dik

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Speaker 4: was actually winning that fight on two score cards by

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Speaker 4: the time he was stopped in round ten. He was

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Speaker 4: being trained by Teddy Atlas, who had a great game

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Speaker 4: plan for that fight. But vos Dik was ultimately stopped

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Speaker 4: in round ten, ran out of gas after boxing really

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Speaker 4: really well the first ten rounds and that was a

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Speaker 4: very close fight. So after that, the issue is he

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Speaker 4: took a few years off, came back. He's on a

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Speaker 4: winning streak now. But I think David Benavitez is going

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Speaker 4: to get this done late as well. However, I prefer

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Speaker 4: betting the over here. It's eight and a half. He

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Speaker 4: was stopped in the tenth against better Viev. David Benavidez

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Speaker 4: I thought he was gonna knock out calea Plant.

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Speaker 3: He didn't.

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Speaker 4: I thought he was going to box Demetrios and Andrade

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Speaker 4: to a decision he did not. He knocked him out

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Speaker 4: in the sixth round, So maybe not quote me on

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Speaker 4: this one, but I do think this is going to

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Speaker 4: go over because vos Dick is a very skilled boxer

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Speaker 4: who is going to be able to survive in there,

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Speaker 4: and David Benavidez what's going to help him out is

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Speaker 4: his stamina and things of that nature. His speed for

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Speaker 4: somebody that big, is pretty ridiculous, but he's not somebody

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Speaker 4: who puts guys away super early, unless kind of like

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Speaker 4: Geronta Davis they're so overmatched, and I don't think this

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Speaker 4: is that case. So I think voz Dick is actually

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Speaker 4: more live as a dog here than Frank Martin, which

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Speaker 4: is another reason why I'm more comfortable taking the over

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Speaker 4: than a straight up method of victory. So I'll go

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Speaker 4: over eight and a half rounds. I found that at

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Speaker 4: like minus one forty two in one book.

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Speaker 1: Is it playable to nine and the half rounds if

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Speaker 1: it's moved to nine and the half at even money

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Speaker 1: over a nine and the half even money, I probably.

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Speaker 4: Still take that that that's probably like my limit because

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Speaker 4: ten and a half you're only giving me two rounds there.

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Speaker 4: But being that he was stopped in the tenth round

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Speaker 4: by a harder puncher, and arts are better.

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Speaker 3: BF like better.

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Speaker 4: BF now is probably pounderful pound in boxing, the hardest

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Speaker 4: puncher in the sport. He's ridiculous and Vosdik was able

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Speaker 4: to withstand his power for ten rounds, so I think

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Speaker 4: I think he should be able to get to ten

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Speaker 4: with Benavidez. And it would have surprised me if this

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Speaker 4: just straight up went to the cards.

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Speaker 1: Two world title fights live on pay per view Saturday night.

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Speaker 1: Any final thoughts, Brian, before we let you go.

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Speaker 3: There is another fight, but I I you know, we don't.

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Speaker 6: We don't.

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Speaker 3: We don't need to prolong MMA talk here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Well you have some coverage in the app.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, we'll find it there.

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Speaker 4: That's on the app, segments on Action Networks YouTube channel

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Speaker 4: breaking down these two fights, and also super Real Matias

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Speaker 4: versus Liam fight in Puerto Rico that's going to go

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Speaker 4: on this weekend on Puerto Rican So I had to

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Speaker 4: cover that one and also written previews on Action Network

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Speaker 4: as well for all these fights that I'm talking about.

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Speaker 1: Love it, Brian Fonseeca, Action Network Boxing contributor. You can

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Speaker 1: go now, we'll kick you out of here. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: stopping by. Thanks guys, unless you want to stay, I

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Speaker 1: don't think you want to, probably not for this card.

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Speaker 5: Okay, good go All right.

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Speaker 1: That's Brian Fonseca to lead off the show. Figured we

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Speaker 1: do him first. We don't want to keep him around here,

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Speaker 1: so we can move it right along to UFC Fight Night,

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Speaker 1: Perez and Tyra the main event. Zarello and Billy ready

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Speaker 1: to go? All right, Sean, we'll start with you with

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Speaker 1: Perez and Tyra. When you evaluate the fight, you break

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Speaker 1: it down. What's a plausible way of going about betting

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Speaker 1: this fight.

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Speaker 7: I'm waiting for the price to keep taking up on Perez.

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Speaker 7: He opened closer to plus one forty five. I saw

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Speaker 7: a plus one seventy this morning, and I'm going to

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Speaker 7: see if it gets all though. We have to plus

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Speaker 7: two hundred. Once you get more Japanese money coming in,

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Speaker 7: harlays start getting tied together. I think Tyra is a

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Speaker 7: guy with a ton of hype, and I would expect

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Speaker 7: people to keep betting on him. But also you have

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Speaker 7: an entire country of vetters potentially moving that market off shore,

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Speaker 7: so curious to see where this line moves by fight time.

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Speaker 7: It will be late on Saturday night, so Japanese fans

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Speaker 7: will be able to tune into this one, but it'll

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Speaker 7: be past midnight, so going to give this a bunch

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Speaker 7: of time to see where this line moves. In terms

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Speaker 7: of pre fight props that I find value on Perez

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Speaker 7: by knockout a plus four or thirty Tyra bys submission

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Speaker 7: at plus one forty five, I think Perez is the

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Speaker 7: better striker. I think Tyra is very hittable and open defensively.

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Speaker 7: We've seen him get hurt in the past. Perez can

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Speaker 7: crack and across a twenty five minute fight, I think

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Speaker 7: Perez is going to have opportunities to hurt him. Tyra

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Speaker 7: has not been in a twenty five minute fight. This

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Speaker 7: will be his first five round test. I don't really

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Speaker 7: have many concerns about his ability to get.

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Speaker 5: The five rounds.

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Speaker 7: He seems like he measures himself and paces himself well,

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Speaker 7: gets his fights turned into grappling matches where he's able

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Speaker 7: to control his opponents and keep his energy low for

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Speaker 7: extended stretches. So I'm not that concerned about Tyra getting

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Speaker 7: a five round fight here. If Pereza fought Mohammed Makaya

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Speaker 7: of across five rounds. I think Perez wins that fight

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Speaker 7: because I have real concerns about Mohammed Makaiab across a

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Speaker 7: five round fight, and stylistically this is kind of a

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Speaker 7: similar matchup. Tyra is longer, though I think his scrambling

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Speaker 7: is better. Is I think his jiu jitsu is better

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Speaker 7: than Makaiav. I think Makaiav might be the better wrestler,

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Speaker 7: but Tyra's jiu jitsu in his control game is better

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Speaker 7: than makayavs and in particular, he's really good at taking

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Speaker 7: the back and holding the back, and that is a

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Speaker 7: weakness for Alex Perez. He gives up his back, gives

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Speaker 7: up the ru naked choke, and that is how Tyra

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Speaker 7: wins this fight, either with extended ground control, putting in

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Speaker 7: the backpack, locking in a bye to triangle for multiple rounds,

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Speaker 7: getting a lot of control time, or finishing the fight

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Speaker 7: via submission, because that is the one hole in Perez's

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Speaker 7: game has been submission defense. But that said, I think

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Speaker 7: Perez is the better wrestler here. I think he's the

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Speaker 7: better striker, and I think, as I said, Tyra has

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Speaker 7: major defensive holes in his striking game. I also don't

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Speaker 7: really love Tyra's offensive striking. He has good kicks, but

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Speaker 7: I don't think his hands are particularly good, and he

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Speaker 7: kind of reminds me of like a Flyway Chase Hooper,

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Speaker 7: you know. That's that is like what I view Tatsuro

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Speaker 7: Tyra as I don't. I don't think his striking is

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Speaker 7: particularly great, but he can be relentless in terms of

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Speaker 7: his pace and his pressure, and he's gonna stay in

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Speaker 7: your face and not go away. So a bit of

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Speaker 7: an odd fighter.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 7: There are two other Japanese prospects, high level prospects in

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Speaker 7: the one twenty five and one thirty five pound divisions.

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Speaker 7: Tyra is not my favorite prospect in the one twenty

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Speaker 7: five pound division. That would be Ray Serujya. I think

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Speaker 7: he's the better Japanese prospect of the two. I think

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Speaker 7: Tyra's gotten a lot of hype. He's young, but I

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Speaker 7: don't think he's as good as the hype he's gotten.

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Speaker 7: So I'm Perez or pass here on this fight. I

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Speaker 7: think Tyra has a lot to proof. I think he's

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Speaker 7: taking a significant step up in competition, and I think

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Speaker 7: as that line continues to tick towards Perez, I'm gonna

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Speaker 7: get more interested in betting the underdog here taking a

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Speaker 7: pre fight stab. It's probably Perez by Ko at plus

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Speaker 7: four thirty. But if you want to bet Tyer by

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Speaker 7: Sub at plus one forty five, I'm not going to

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Speaker 7: argue against it. I projected that line closer to plus

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Speaker 7: one twenty.

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Speaker 1: Billy Tyra eight years younger and has a four and

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Speaker 1: a half inch reach advantage. When you break this one down,

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Speaker 1: you mentioned in your Action Network right up your Action

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Speaker 1: Network UFC Luck ratings that you'd be willing to wait

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Speaker 1: as Sean kind of hit on there to the price

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Speaker 1: point to get to around plus you Billy would wait

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Speaker 1: till plus one seventy. It's there right now. So is

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Speaker 1: that a price point that you were willing to take

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Speaker 1: a stab on Perez now?

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Speaker 6: I still haven't bet it.

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Speaker 8: I think Shawn is super sharp pointing out that we'll

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Speaker 8: probably get even more late movement, and I said I

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Speaker 8: was I thought the early week line was about right,

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Speaker 8: so if we saw a considerable movement either way, I

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Speaker 8: was happy with it. If I'm playing at pre fight

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Speaker 8: now and I haven't made this bat yet, I think

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Speaker 8: I'm going Tyra inside the distance. I really like that

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Speaker 8: Sean brought up the Makaia fight as a comparison because

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Speaker 8: stylistically and statistically they're somewhat similar fighters. Tyra and OKAIV

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Speaker 8: both super young known as relentless grapplers, very similar. I

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Speaker 8: think I went back and watched that Makaia fight. You

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Speaker 8: can make an argument that Perez won that third round,

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Speaker 8: and that's the fight. I mean, most people had it

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Speaker 8: for Okayev, but it wasn't It wasn't clear. I wouldn't

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Speaker 8: say the thing that's different though about Tetsuro Tyra. Mokaiev

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Speaker 8: is a guy who learned wrestling his whole life and

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Speaker 8: then became an MMA fighter. And ma Kaive will throw

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Speaker 8: some punches, then he'll stop, and then he'll take a

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Speaker 8: shot out of nowhere, and you can see it coming

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Speaker 8: from a mile away because he kind of just sits

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Speaker 8: down and goes for it. Tetsuro Tyra started his career

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Speaker 8: to be an MMA fighter. He came up through the

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Speaker 8: Shuodo system in Japan. He changed stuff together so well

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Speaker 8: for someone at his age and level, where all of

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Speaker 8: his takedowns are hidden behind strikes. His submission attempts come

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Speaker 8: off of doing damage on the ground. He uses submissions

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Speaker 8: as control positions, then to hit you. It all flows

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Speaker 8: together so much better than Okayev that I think he'll

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Speaker 8: be able to get Perez to the ground. If this

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Speaker 8: were a straight up wrestling match, I don't think he would,

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Speaker 8: but his MMA grappling and his ability to mix the

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Speaker 8: martial arts, as we would say, is pretty high level,

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Speaker 8: especially for guys' age. I do worry about his striking.

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Speaker 8: I'm banking a little bit on his striking continuing to

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Speaker 8: improve because it did look better last fight than it

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Speaker 8: had before, and that fight looks a little bit better

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Speaker 8: than the fight before, which you can see.

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Speaker 6: How that one goes down. Don't love it.

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Speaker 8: The reason I'm going Tyra inside the distance though, is

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Speaker 8: this is the third fight and barely over two months

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Speaker 8: for Alex Perez. I don't think he's taking a ton

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Speaker 8: of damage in those fights. He has the lost to MAKAIV,

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Speaker 8: which was grueling. This is a big dude cutting into

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Speaker 8: one twenty five three times in the short of a timeframe,

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Speaker 8: going through those training camps. Even if you don't get

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Speaker 8: beat up in the fight, stuff happens in camp. Thirty

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Speaker 8: two years old is running pointed out. I don't know

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Speaker 8: what his durability is going to be like down the stretch,

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Speaker 8: He's been scheduled for five round fights, never actually made

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Speaker 8: it to him, and if he's trying to keep up

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Speaker 8: with Tyra in the grappling and then switching gears and

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Speaker 8: all those scrambles. I like Tyra a lot down the stretch,

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Speaker 8: so I think if he gets a finish, it will

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Speaker 8: probably elate, which also makes him a live option for me.

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Speaker 8: Haven't done any of this yet. I might still hedge

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Speaker 8: with a Alex Perez early pick or Alex Prez in

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Speaker 8: the first three rounds or the knockout prop, then try

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Speaker 8: to come in on Tyra late if you're watching this

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Speaker 8: one live. But as far as a pre fight side,

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Speaker 8: I like Tyra to get the finish with it probably

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Speaker 8: coming late sub makes more sense, but I could see

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Speaker 8: him getting down there, wrapping up a gift wrap or

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Speaker 8: control position, then kind of just finishing a tired Alex

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Speaker 8: Perez with strikes.

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Speaker 6: Yeah.

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Speaker 7: I was going to ask you about the activity level

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Speaker 7: for Perez, the fact that he has gone so long

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Speaker 7: without fighting, right his huge stretches of long layoffs, and

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Speaker 7: now he's fighting for the third time in three months

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Speaker 7: or third time in five months, and that to me

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Speaker 7: was both a good and a bad sign because he

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Speaker 7: has to cut weight for a third time, which you

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Speaker 7: mentioned like could rain his durability. But in the same respect,

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Speaker 7: it's good to see him active. It's good to see

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Speaker 7: him healthy and feeling good and trying to rise back

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Speaker 7: up the rankings. So yeah, I think Alex Prez is

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Speaker 7: consistently underrated. He's one of the most well rounded fighters

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Speaker 7: in the division, but he has those durability issues and

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Speaker 7: Tyra's young and you know, hungrier, and we'll see how

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Speaker 7: much improvement he's made. I think he does need to

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Speaker 7: have leveled up his striking to be competitive here in

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Speaker 7: the striking, otherwise I think he could get clipped through

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Speaker 7: a bad But.

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Speaker 8: He just needs to survive the striking, right, he doesn't

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Speaker 8: need to win the striking, So that's I'm betting on

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Speaker 8: him leveling up enough that he won't die on the feet.

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Speaker 6: That's all I'm asking you, know, you.

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Speaker 7: Don't goofy fight is every time Makaia was in trouble,

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Speaker 7: he was just sitting down. He was like crouching to

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Speaker 7: his ankles, and the judges didn't know what to do

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Speaker 7: with it because it was like did Perez hurt him

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Speaker 7: and he sat down or did he just sit down?

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Speaker 7: And I think if Perez was slightly more aggressive was

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Speaker 7: with his hands in the third round, he wins that fight.

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Speaker 7: If he had thrown like five more strikes, he wins

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Speaker 7: that fight. But he was doing a lot of cornering Makaia,

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Speaker 7: pressuring him into quarters and then just staring at him

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Speaker 7: and taking pictures and taking pictures and wasn't letting his

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Speaker 7: hands go, and that that was the difference in the fight.

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Speaker 7: If he, i mean literally throws five more strikes, i

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Speaker 7: think he wins. It was a very very very close fight,

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Speaker 7: you know, on a on a razor's edge, but.

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Speaker 5: Just didn't do quite en off activity.

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Speaker 7: And maybe the younger guy in a five round fight

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Speaker 7: is going to pose more problems just because of that.

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Speaker 5: That were great levels, so we'll see.

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Speaker 7: But he was definitely better than Makai at the end

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Speaker 7: of that three round fight. But yeah, I mean they

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Speaker 7: were both feeling it for the base for sure, And.

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Speaker 8: That's what I think is the difference with tyr here,

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Speaker 8: even even relative to Perez, he's better at transitioning between

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Speaker 8: the arts, certainly better than Okai, who ka is like

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Speaker 8: we're boxing we're boxing. I'm gonna sit down and help

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Speaker 8: you wrestle with me. Where Perez seemed so concerned with

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Speaker 8: the wrestling that he couldn't really mix between those two

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Speaker 8: things too.

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Speaker 6: Where tire again.

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Speaker 8: You know, Perez was a juco wrestler, high school wrestling

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Speaker 8: coach who then got into MMA. Tyra has been mixing

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Speaker 8: these things his whole career, since he was twelve or whatever.

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Speaker 8: There's an advantage to that where you're switching gears a

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Speaker 8: lot more seamlessly, and I think I think that's gonna

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Speaker 8: be a big deciding factor here.

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Speaker 5: All right, very good.

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Speaker 1: Let's move on to Billion Shawn's Fight of the night.

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Speaker 5: Correct me if I'm wrong.

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Speaker 1: Rarely do we see you guys target a prelimb as

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Speaker 1: your the nights. The flyweight matchup here between tagear ulam

355
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Speaker 1: Bekov and Joshua Van price points are very similar to

356
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Speaker 1: the main event as far as the money line prices.

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Speaker 1: Van is the underdog at plus one seventy sean. Break

358
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Speaker 1: it down for us how you see each fighter and

359
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Speaker 1: how they match up, and how you might want to better.

360
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Speaker 7: Yeah, flyweight man event, We're gonna go with the flyweight

361
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Speaker 7: fighter the night as well. I think this is a

362
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Speaker 7: really interesting matchup, and Joshua Van is a very dynamic prospect.

363
00:16:26,560 --> 00:16:29,240
Speaker 7: He's one of the best offensive strikers already in the

364
00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:32,000
Speaker 7: flyweight division, but he is major holes defensively, both in

365
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Speaker 7: terms of his defensive striking but also his defensive grappling.

366
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Speaker 7: You can take him down, you can grapple him. I

367
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Speaker 7: believe he was smitted in his only career loss. But

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Speaker 7: tigearulan Bekov is the kind of guy who is going

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Speaker 7: to push that grappling heavy game plan against him, and

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Speaker 7: we'll see if Fan can scramble and get back up

371
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Speaker 7: and work his way back into the fight. So I

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Speaker 7: expect ul on Bekov to have more success early when

373
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Speaker 7: they're both dry in the first round, I expect him

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Speaker 7: to land takedowns, and then from there we'll see how

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00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:01,560
Speaker 7: scramble Evan is, how a he's able to get back

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00:17:01,560 --> 00:17:04,360
Speaker 7: to his feet consistently, and whether he can do it

377
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Speaker 7: more often as the fight goes along, because I think

378
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,359
Speaker 7: he has better cardio. Lulan Bekov typically slows down in

379
00:17:10,400 --> 00:17:12,600
Speaker 7: the third round. Van is going to hit the body

380
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Speaker 7: as well, which will slowly own Becko down even further.

381
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Speaker 7: So this is you know, his first real test against

382
00:17:19,600 --> 00:17:22,760
Speaker 7: against a serious grappler. He keeps getting fed strikers. The

383
00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 7: strikers have been able to grapple him, but he gets

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Speaker 7: back up and eventually hits their body and works them down.

385
00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,400
Speaker 7: But ulan Bekov can maintain that grappling heavy game plan.

386
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Speaker 7: He comes from Eagle Mma, which was Kabib's camp, Kabib's

387
00:17:33,680 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 7: father's camp, so he trained with all those guys his

388
00:17:36,600 --> 00:17:38,880
Speaker 7: whole life. He has that sambo style where he's going

389
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:41,840
Speaker 7: to try to just take you down and consolidate position

390
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 7: and what blanket you for fifteen minutes if he can.

391
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Speaker 7: So I'm targeting Van live after round one. I think

392
00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:48,600
Speaker 7: round one could be tough for him. I think he'll

393
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,160
Speaker 7: get taken down a couple of times, but round two

394
00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,240
Speaker 7: and beyond I would expect him to start having more success,

395
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,359
Speaker 7: potentially denying those takedowns or just scrambling back to his feet.

396
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,440
Speaker 7: And I think by the third round he may really

397
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Speaker 7: be putting the volume on ulan Beckov, potentially getting a

398
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Speaker 7: round three finish. So round three or decision on Van

399
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,600
Speaker 7: at plus three hundred I think is an interesting bet.

400
00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:10,480
Speaker 7: I think his round three odds are probably interesting as well.

401
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 7: But I'm probably just gonna bet him live after round one,

402
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,440
Speaker 7: and I like the over goes to the decision as well.

403
00:18:16,440 --> 00:18:18,840
Speaker 7: I think you could bet I could get a very

404
00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:23,000
Speaker 7: competitive split decision here. If somebody finishes, it's likely willing

405
00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 7: back off via sub and I think more likely VAN

406
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,240
Speaker 7: via third round KO. So that VAN round three or

407
00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 7: decision back at plus three hundred is interesting. But I

408
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:34,959
Speaker 7: think ghost to decision and VAN live are my favorite

409
00:18:34,960 --> 00:18:36,119
Speaker 7: ways to play this one.

410
00:18:36,400 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 6: About you, Billy, Yeah, I mean my thoughts are similar.

411
00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:41,639
Speaker 8: It doesn't seem like a big enough disparity between his

412
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:44,080
Speaker 8: plus one eighty money line to get that round three

413
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 8: or decision. Just we're threatening too tight of a needle

414
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 8: for not enough of a payoff there. I looked at

415
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,600
Speaker 8: that too, and I'm with you in the analysis. I

416
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,400
Speaker 8: was hoping we'd get a better price. But it's interesting,

417
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 8: this one in a way could be the main event, right.

418
00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 8: It's another very young flyweight prospect against an established guy.

419
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 8: It's really similar to that fight, except this time the

420
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 8: younger fighter is the underdog, and again it's another situation

421
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:09,240
Speaker 8: where it's not the striking we're worried about, but the

422
00:19:09,280 --> 00:19:10,119
Speaker 8: grappling defense.

423
00:19:10,119 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 6: For Van.

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00:19:11,359 --> 00:19:14,480
Speaker 8: You have to project some level of advancement. He's not

425
00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,040
Speaker 8: even twenty three years old yet only a few fights

426
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Speaker 8: in the UFC. You have to assume he's continuing to

427
00:19:19,760 --> 00:19:22,320
Speaker 8: get better, but it's really hard to say how much better,

428
00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:25,760
Speaker 8: which is challenging what ultimately tipped me towards Van? And

429
00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,520
Speaker 8: I'm playing his money line at plus one eighty as

430
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,479
Speaker 8: the times he has been taken down, he's never really rested.

431
00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 8: He's never given a guy a solid position. It's been

432
00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,120
Speaker 8: like less than a minute of ground control time every

433
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:39,239
Speaker 8: time he has hit the mat, and he lands over

434
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:41,879
Speaker 8: nine significant strikes per minute. So my thought here is

435
00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:45,320
Speaker 8: Tigear's gonna get his takedowns. Not a guy who throws

436
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:46,879
Speaker 8: a ton of strikes from the ground, Not a guy

437
00:19:46,880 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 8: who's gonna do a lot of damage there. Tigear could

438
00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 8: have three four takedowns in a round, control the round

439
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:54,760
Speaker 8: for half the time. But if Van gets up and

440
00:19:54,840 --> 00:19:57,960
Speaker 8: lands more strikes, I'm kind of banking on judges awarding

441
00:19:58,000 --> 00:19:59,639
Speaker 8: him that. I don't know that that's going to be

442
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,680
Speaker 8: the case. It feels like close to a coin flip

443
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 8: in my head how that's going to go. But again,

444
00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 8: we're flipping a coin in one sides plus one eighty.

445
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,320
Speaker 8: That feels pretty straightforward to me. It's not a huge

446
00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:11,320
Speaker 8: bat for me. You know, a lot of uncertainty when

447
00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 8: we're banking on the progression of this guy.

448
00:20:13,119 --> 00:20:15,080
Speaker 6: I like his ability to get back up. He had

449
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:15,560
Speaker 6: a nice.

450
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,160
Speaker 8: Reversal one of the times on the ground too, where

451
00:20:17,160 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 8: he finished the round on top one of the times

452
00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 8: he was taken down, and we only think that's going

453
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,640
Speaker 8: to get better. I also don't love the the anthropomorphial

454
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 8: dynamics here for Ullunbkov, the tall, skinny guy, gonna be

455
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,600
Speaker 8: hard for him to get inside and get those takedowns

456
00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:33,680
Speaker 8: on Van, who is throwing to the body and does

457
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 8: keep a low level, so that's going to make it

458
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 8: a little bit harder than it would be against other fighters.

459
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 8: Plus one eighty on Van I like Live is also

460
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:42,600
Speaker 8: a great angle, not a card that I expect everyone

461
00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 8: to be at the edge of their seats watching, though,

462
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:45,520
Speaker 8: so I want to make sure we're giving out free

463
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 8: white picks as well.

464
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:49,159
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Speaker 5: By the way.

494
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 1: Main card available on ESPN two. Prelimbs at seven Eastern

495
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,919
Speaker 1: and main card starts at ten Eastern ESPN two for

496
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,840
Speaker 1: UFC Fight Night ninety six. Okay, let's move on to

497
00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,240
Speaker 1: underdogs orllo good week for dogs? Any were loving underdogs

498
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:33,800
Speaker 1: last week?

499
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, underdogs didn't really come through last week though.

500
00:22:36,520 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 7: If you did play all the underdogs that Billy and

501
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 7: I recommended, I think you would have come out ahead

502
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:43,560
Speaker 7: ultimately because you got dom Reyis and there plus two xacs,

503
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:47,639
Speaker 7: you got Billy's underdog that cash, and I think I

504
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 7: think three D eight cash, and ultimately, I do think

505
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:51,479
Speaker 7: you would have come out ahead had you bet all

506
00:22:51,520 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 7: of them evenly Demes Demise Gomez ended up cashing.

507
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 5: So hopefully this week a little bit more dog heavy.

508
00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 5: We will see.

509
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 7: There's four that I circled that I We're gonna run

510
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:02,960
Speaker 7: down them quickly. So Adam Fuget at plus one h

511
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 7: three against Josh Quinlan. He won the first round on

512
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:08,400
Speaker 7: two or three scorecards against Michael Morales. I think he's

513
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:11,440
Speaker 7: gotten a pretty tough schedule to date in the UFC,

514
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 7: and he's been training for the past year with Kevin

515
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,560
Speaker 7: Gastla and he moved camps, moved a Fight Ready MMA

516
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,360
Speaker 7: and Arizona, and he's been training directly with Kevin Gastlin

517
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:21,880
Speaker 7: like every single day. There's no way he didn't get

518
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 7: better working with a pretty solid top five ball A

519
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 7: through wits. So he's the better wrestler with the better cardio.

520
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,520
Speaker 7: On this matchup, I think Quenland can crack. I think

521
00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:32,360
Speaker 7: Quinland is likelier to win the fight early in round one.

522
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 7: That aligns with the bet that Billy made on this fight.

523
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 7: I know Billy likes violence in this matchup, but I

524
00:23:37,640 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 7: just prefer fuguts cardio and if this one extends, I

525
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 7: think he's likelier to land more takedowns or more significant strikes.

526
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 7: I should also mention Lynnland coming off of a February

527
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:48,480
Speaker 7: loss to Danny Barlow where he took a ton of

528
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 7: damage round three KO but just got hit in the

529
00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:55,639
Speaker 7: face one hundred times even before that knockout. So relatively

530
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:57,720
Speaker 7: quick turnaround, you know a few months later off of

531
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 7: a knockout loss for Quinland as well, noting you know,

532
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,520
Speaker 7: Fuget had that full year off, new training camp, got

533
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 7: to rest the brains, so Fuget to plus money and

534
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:07,879
Speaker 7: I think live after round one of the ways that

535
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:11,760
Speaker 7: attack that Wilson Wilson a plus two eighty against Jackisaragi.

536
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 5: Wilson.

537
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:15,000
Speaker 7: Wilson is not a good fighter, but neither is Jacki Seragi,

538
00:24:15,320 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 7: and Wilson is taller, he's longer, He's five inches taller,

539
00:24:17,960 --> 00:24:20,119
Speaker 7: he's a four inch reach advantage. He is the better

540
00:24:20,240 --> 00:24:23,840
Speaker 7: MMA fighter here. Sarahgi can crack. Sarahgi was a plus

541
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,080
Speaker 7: three ninety undered off in his last fight, which he

542
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 7: won be a knockout. Nobody was giving a chance to

543
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 7: win in that fight because in his previous fight he

544
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 7: showed against another low level prospect he cannot grapple at all,

545
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:37,359
Speaker 7: like really bad grappler. Like potentially one of the worst

546
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:38,439
Speaker 7: grapplers in the UFC.

547
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 5: Bad. You can't be laying.

548
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 7: Minus three hundred plus on a guy who can't grapple

549
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 7: in an MMA fight. I don't care how bad Weston

550
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,000
Speaker 7: Wilson Chin is. He's bigger, he's the better MMA fighter,

551
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 7: He's the better minute winner if Jacket doesn't knock him out.

552
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 7: I think Wilson is very live at plus two eighty,

553
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 7: so if he dies, he dies, no big deal. But

554
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:01,640
Speaker 7: I think he's live in this fight. Lucas Almeida plus

555
00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 7: one seventy against him.

556
00:25:02,520 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 6: Kwamba.

557
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 7: Kwamba's a local kid. We'll see what the crowd sounds

558
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,200
Speaker 7: like at the APEX for him, because for his Contender

559
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 7: Series fights really loud a lot of fans there, But

560
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 7: the UFC has those new ticketing rules now for fighters

561
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 7: with the APEX. I think they't only get like three

562
00:25:15,560 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 7: or four fans at most, you know, in to watch

563
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 7: their fight and then they get shuttled out right after.

564
00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 7: So I don't know if the crowd is going to

565
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 7: be as lowed for Kwamba as it was for those

566
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 7: other APEX fights. But even beyond that, I don't really

567
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,400
Speaker 7: know what he does well. He's this well rounded guy

568
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 7: with a decent skill set, but he's low volume. He

569
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 7: seems to hunt the finish even though he doesn't have

570
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 7: a ton of power. He seems like a good athlete,

571
00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:39,560
Speaker 7: and I said he's well rounded, but I don't really

572
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 7: know what he does well. Durability, survivability, the ability to

573
00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,880
Speaker 7: survive fifteen minutes and just not go away. That helps

574
00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 7: him in this fight because he's the more durable fighter

575
00:25:47,760 --> 00:25:50,160
Speaker 7: than Lucas Almeida. But I think Almeida is equally, if

576
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 7: not more skilled, and this is a significant step down

577
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 7: in competition for Almeida relative to his previous fight. So

578
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 7: plus one seventy on Almida I think is interesting. I

579
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 7: don't love it, but I really don't like him. Kwamba

580
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 7: the fighter. And then lastly, Jose Johnson at plus four

581
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 7: seventy five, the biggest underdog on the card. This is

582
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,800
Speaker 7: closer to plus four hundred off. Sure the domestic books

583
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 7: are a little bit more juiced on Johnson. He would

584
00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 7: be the tallest one to twenty fiver in UFC history

585
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 7: if he makes the weight today. See if he makes

586
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,640
Speaker 7: the weight, but he'd be a six foot flyweight. We've

587
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:23,679
Speaker 7: never had a guy over five to ten in the

588
00:26:23,720 --> 00:26:27,480
Speaker 7: flyweight division, so a huge flyweight, he'd be eight inches

589
00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 7: taller with a six r inch reach advantage against his opponent. Now,

590
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 7: he struggles to defend takedowns, but he's really good at

591
00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,880
Speaker 7: putting in those butterfly hooks and scrambling and getting back

592
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 7: to his feet, and assu Amabayev for all of his

593
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,680
Speaker 7: takedown and wrestling ability, it's really bad at controlling guys

594
00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 7: on the ground. It's hard to control guys on the

595
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 7: ground at one twenty five. You just don't have enough

596
00:26:45,960 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 7: weight to keep them down. Yeah, and the fact that

597
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,639
Speaker 7: Johnson is double his size, I think it's going to

598
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 7: be really difficult to keep Hoose Johnson on the ground.

599
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:54,880
Speaker 7: And once they're on the feet, Johnson is the much

600
00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,719
Speaker 7: longer man. He's probably gonna land more volumes. So this

601
00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:01,080
Speaker 7: could be a wonky split decision where ALMABAIV is landing

602
00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,240
Speaker 7: takedowns in every round, but when they return to defeat,

603
00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 7: Johnson is landing more strikes. So Jose Johnson A plus

604
00:27:06,280 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 7: four seventy five absolutely wive this weekend as the biggest

605
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 7: underdog on the carden. Somebody I will be finding a

606
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 7: way to bet once we see the weigh ins on Friday.

607
00:27:15,080 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 7: I need to make sure he doesn't look like skeletor

608
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 7: on the scales once once I see him way in.

609
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 7: But yeah, biggest flywight in UFC history should be interesting.

610
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 2: Bill.

611
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 1: You echo the sentiments of Zurillo for one, but you

612
00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 1: have another underdog. If you want to comment on Fugut, Yeah.

613
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 8: If I had to take a money line side in

614
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 8: that fight, one hundred percent on Fugut.

615
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 6: I almost bet it earlier in the week.

616
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 8: It seems to be trending towards Quinland, So if it

617
00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:40,919
Speaker 8: goes any further, I'm just gonna double down on this

618
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 8: fight and take Fugut as well. But I already have

619
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,240
Speaker 8: a different pick for that one. As to the Jose

620
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 8: Johnson fight, not sure I'm betting that. But anyone who's

621
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 8: looking up stats on UFC fights and you see a

622
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 8: guy with seven, eight nine takedowns on a round, that

623
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 8: means he let the guy up a handful of times

624
00:27:56,560 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 8: in there.

625
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:58,600
Speaker 6: I can't keep taking you down if I hold you

626
00:27:58,640 --> 00:27:59,280
Speaker 6: down the whole time.

627
00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,000
Speaker 8: So people will get excited about a fighter because they

628
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 8: landed nine takedowns in two rounds or whatever it's that

629
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 8: means a guy got up at least seven times because

630
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 8: you know, started on the feet two of those times.

631
00:28:09,080 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 6: Just keep that in mind.

632
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 8: Definitely get the logic from sewn on that one. Not

633
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 8: sure I can pull the trigger, but it makes a

634
00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 8: lot of sense. The one I'm on, and this is

635
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 8: mostly just going to be a shameless plug for my

636
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 8: luck ratings is Julia Palastri bet her at plus one

637
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 8: ninety earlier in the week. She's all the way down

638
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 8: to plus one fifty five. This is a classic. You know,

639
00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:28,560
Speaker 8: fights more than three to one to go to the decision.

640
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 8: We're getting an underdog at plus one ninety or we're

641
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 8: at plus one ninety.

642
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 6: Still, plus one.

643
00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 8: Fifty five is playable lower level UFC fight by any stretch.

644
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 8: Josephe nuts in seven and zero. Only one of those

645
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 8: wins is in the UFC. It was against marnik Mann,

646
00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 8: who has no business being in the UFC. Kind of fought,

647
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 8: broadly speaking, lower level competition, and it was a former kickboxer.

648
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 8: Plastree's got much more finishing upside here, Brazilian jiu jitsu fighter. Primarily,

649
00:28:55,320 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 8: you got the finishing upside. You got the chances that

650
00:28:57,440 --> 00:28:59,280
Speaker 8: the judges just hand her one. Even if she doesn't

651
00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 8: totally deserve it. You're getting that at plus one ninety.

652
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:04,840
Speaker 8: I thought getting CLV on this one was pretty obvious

653
00:29:04,880 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 8: earlier in the week. I'd still take it here, but

654
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 8: again friendly reminder, check those pieces out earlier in the week.

655
00:29:10,480 --> 00:29:12,040
Speaker 8: I was in the wrong on one of those that

656
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 8: were going to debate in our best bet segment, but

657
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 8: this one, I'm going to gloat about my CLV a

658
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 8: little bit.

659
00:29:17,600 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: Okay, excellent. How about the prop market Zarella and he

660
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,120
Speaker 1: had some stronger thoughts on a particular fight that really

661
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 1: allowed you to go into different layers of the of

662
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:32,000
Speaker 1: our breakdown, our rundown. But you're kind of buncing around

663
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:32,720
Speaker 1: this week.

664
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 7: Yeah, Nate mn Ness versus Jimmy Flick. Jimmy Flick had

665
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 7: previously retired, came back to the UFC because he needed

666
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 7: some money and he was getting demolished by Malcolm Gordon

667
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 7: before Gordon ultimately made a mistake and jumped into his submission.

668
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 7: And Flick is basically submission or bust than every one

669
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 7: of his fights. I'm not trying to wiki caap this,

670
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:52,960
Speaker 7: but fifteen of his seventeen wins are by submission, and

671
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 7: six of his seven losses or by knockout. He's submission

672
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 7: or bust and just watching that Malcolm Gordon fight like

673
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 7: I am Brandon. I can throw you in the octagon

674
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 7: and give you a free shot on Jimmy Flick, and

675
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 7: I think you can knock him out. I'm being dead serious.

676
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 7: I don't know how much you weight Brendan, but Jimmy Flick,

677
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 7: even at one hundred and twenty fi pounds, even if

678
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 7: you have a weight advantage on him, like, I'm pretty

679
00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 7: sure you could crack him and knock him out. He

680
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 7: has a bad chin, like a real bad chin, and

681
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:20,080
Speaker 7: his reactions every time he gets hit are really bad.

682
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:22,680
Speaker 7: He's he's dancing like a baby deer in the octagon,

683
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 7: so he can absolutely find a submission here. Nate Maness

684
00:30:26,440 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 7: is a bit reckless, but Maness is the much bigger guy.

685
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,120
Speaker 7: He's three inches taller, he has a four inch reach advantage.

686
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,000
Speaker 7: He hits much harder. He showed that he has good

687
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:37,360
Speaker 7: grappling awareness against Umer and Rega Matov. I think everybody

688
00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 7: bet Umer inside the distance in that fight, Nate survived

689
00:30:40,360 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 7: for all fifteen minutes. Is a pretty big underdog, but

690
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:44,600
Speaker 7: he should be able to counter grapple, keep this one

691
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 7: on the feet, and then eventually find the knockout on

692
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,440
Speaker 7: Jimmy Flick. So Manesse in round one minus one oh

693
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 7: five is interesting. I like Minesse round one or two

694
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 7: probably minus one oh five lost four thirty respectively. You

695
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 7: can probably structure those that you profit no matter what happens.

696
00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:03,959
Speaker 7: But also the under one and half at minus two

697
00:31:04,040 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 7: hundred or Manes by Ko at minus two hundred, I

698
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 7: think are ways to play it as well. You just

699
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 7: get the fifteen minutes across with Mansk by Ko, or

700
00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 7: you get the Flick submission equity in there for the

701
00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:16,960
Speaker 7: seven and a half for seven and a half minutes

702
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 7: of the fight. Most of his fights ten and inside

703
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 7: that seven and a half minute mark he has been

704
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 7: a decision a couple of times, been finished in round

705
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 7: three a couple of times. But Flick comes forward, they're

706
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 7: in the apex. It's going to be a car crash

707
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,600
Speaker 7: and I expect Mansk to put him away pretty quickly.

708
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,200
Speaker 7: So even the under half around here I think could

709
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 7: be interesting as well.

710
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: Against Flick. You could get a lot of viewership maybe

711
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 1: on our Action Network YouTube page.

712
00:31:39,320 --> 00:31:42,400
Speaker 7: For I think you can get him. Brendan one clean shot.

713
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 7: He's got to point the submission. But if you get

714
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 7: him at the first punch, it's over.

715
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 6: We did our six months of sprawl training in there,

716
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 6: and you'll be all right.

717
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 5: I don't know Flick has those flying submissions.

718
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 7: I don't know.

719
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 5: I don't know how you like.

720
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,120
Speaker 7: I don't know if the sprawl training is what I'm

721
00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 7: as concerned about. Because he doesn't have good wrestling. We

722
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,520
Speaker 7: need to just back away. Just back away unless.

723
00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 9: You're unless you're tight, keep that high guard, keep those

724
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 9: elbows tight, don't let him grab on anything, and just

725
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 9: just crack them one time.

726
00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 1: My problem is I'll probably hurt my hand or something

727
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 1: because I don't c.

728
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 3: KO injury via broken hand.

729
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:22,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I won't get into it. But it happened

730
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 1: to be one. I never I wasn't like a fighter

731
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 1: in college, okay, but like I had a scrum with

732
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 1: someone on a on a on a bad night. Well,

733
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 1: they were being very rude to my friend and my

734
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:32,080
Speaker 1: and my girlfriend at the time.

735
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 5: So did what you gotta do, stood up.

736
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 1: For them, stood up for them. I felt like a hero.

737
00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: Next morning, when I was in the down down the

738
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,760
Speaker 1: street at the hospital trying to get the hand wrapped.

739
00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: It wasn't great anyway, Billy props for you this week.

740
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,480
Speaker 8: Yeah, we alluded to it earlier that Josh Guinnlan and

741
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 8: Fuget fight. I like this fight to end by knockout

742
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 8: at minus one thirty, not enough of a price, different

743
00:32:57,840 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 8: from the Fuget money line for me, where I think

744
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 8: it probably should be.

745
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 6: I'm just rolling with that. Both guys are glass cannons.

746
00:33:04,200 --> 00:33:07,120
Speaker 8: Quinlan lands about four significant strikes per a minute, takes

747
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 8: almost seven. Fugut also has a negative striking differential. Knockdown

748
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,480
Speaker 8: twice by Michael Morales, knockdown once by proper Mark Malott.

749
00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:18,760
Speaker 8: Quinlan two knockout really three knockout or two knockout wins

750
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 8: because one was a no contest that was overturned, different story.

751
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 6: And when he doesn't get the knockout, he gets knocked out.

752
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:28,240
Speaker 8: So both guys extremely violent, both guys not a lot

753
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:31,800
Speaker 8: of interest in defense, leaning towards Fugut. Obviously, you could

754
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 8: combine both our thoughts here and play Fugit by knockout

755
00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 8: or the juicy plus money and try to thread the needle.

756
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 6: I just think I've.

757
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:41,000
Speaker 8: Never really seen either guy go for a submission or

758
00:33:41,000 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 8: try to grapple or try to do anything other than

759
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,160
Speaker 8: just swing and hope the other guy falls down first.

760
00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:47,760
Speaker 8: Minus one thirty feels like a pretty fair price on that.

761
00:33:48,520 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 7: Oddly enough, they're all they're both BJJA black belts, so

762
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 7: grappling could be fun here. Like they both have the

763
00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 7: black belt. I'd be curious to see who has a

764
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 7: legit black belt and who is the fake black belt.

765
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:04,080
Speaker 6: But hey, I got a BJJ black belts, so like.

766
00:34:04,800 --> 00:34:06,840
Speaker 7: One of their black belts is probably a little bit

767
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,040
Speaker 7: more legitimate than the other. And I tend to thig

768
00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:11,759
Speaker 7: it's Fugets, especially given the camp he's been training with

769
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 7: over the past year plus. So I think Fuget's a

770
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 7: better fighter, and I think if one of them has

771
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:18,800
Speaker 7: grappling success, it's likely to be him. And I trust

772
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 7: this cardio too, So Fuget live after round one may

773
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 7: be the best entry, just because I think Quinlan will

774
00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 7: be more dangerous for five minutes and then his effectiveness

775
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 7: really drops off, all.

776
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 1: Right, to take us home. Best bets a head to

777
00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: head best bet. This is not a final bet or

778
00:34:34,480 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 1: really a best bet.

779
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:35,680
Speaker 5: It's a head.

780
00:34:35,760 --> 00:34:36,640
Speaker 1: It's a head to head.

781
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, the little head to head debate.

782
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 7: We've we've given out enough bets on the show that

783
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 7: are either aligned or giving you enough options. So let's

784
00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 7: let's go with a little head to head battle in

785
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 7: this final bet of the night. So I bet Garrett

786
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,080
Speaker 7: Arnfield at minus one eighty. The rest of the market

787
00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 7: was at minus one ninety till minus one ninety five,

788
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 7: and I've seen people talking about Garrett Arnfield enough to

789
00:34:56,080 --> 00:34:58,359
Speaker 7: know that this line was only going one direction from

790
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 7: minus one eighty, which was up. So this was partially

791
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 7: a bet knowing I get colv on it because of

792
00:35:04,719 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 7: where the market was headed. But number two, I just

793
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:10,400
Speaker 7: like the matchup for Garrett Armfield, and I know Billy's

794
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 7: going to discuss he stands grappling upside of plus money

795
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 7: and the fact that he thinks that because could play

796
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 7: out closer to.

797
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:15,840
Speaker 5: A coin flip.

798
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 7: So my issue with Brady Heatstand and with guys like

799
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:23,359
Speaker 7: Cody Stamen and other fighters of that ILK is they

800
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:26,279
Speaker 7: can wrestle and they can get takedowns, but they're not

801
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:29,359
Speaker 7: going to do enough damage with those takedowns to win

802
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,400
Speaker 7: the fight. I think the way MMA fights are scored now,

803
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 7: fighters like Michael Kisa, who is from the same gym

804
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 7: as Brady.

805
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 5: Heat stands like Jypsu.

806
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 7: It's Kisa and he stand and Julianapane so they're well

807
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,880
Speaker 7: trained fighters, but there's not a ton of pros in

808
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 7: that gym. And the issue with Kisa and heastand who

809
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,280
Speaker 7: are very similar fighters. I believe Kisa was he stands

810
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:57,560
Speaker 7: wrestling coach in high school. They get the takedowns, but

811
00:35:57,560 --> 00:35:59,399
Speaker 7: they don't do anything with them, and he stand has

812
00:35:59,440 --> 00:36:02,120
Speaker 7: I believe, twenty minutes of grappling control time already in

813
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,360
Speaker 7: the UFC. He's landed ten ground strikes, doesn't throw anything

814
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 7: on the ground. He looks for submissions, but he's not

815
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,680
Speaker 7: active enough with the takedowns. And Billy and I discussed

816
00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 7: another fight earlier, oh the josh Van, Tagerula and Bekov fight,

817
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,520
Speaker 7: where we mentioned that Tear may get the takedowns, but

818
00:36:18,760 --> 00:36:21,240
Speaker 7: Van is going to pop back up and land the strikes.

819
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 7: And Van at big plus money, Okay, Like easy argument

820
00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:26,920
Speaker 7: there to bet him at plus money. I'm laying juice

821
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 7: on a guy who I think could get taken down,

822
00:36:29,040 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 7: but when they pop back to the feet, he's going

823
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 7: to double or triple up. He stand on strikes. I

824
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:35,840
Speaker 7: don't like Key stands striking defense. I think Armfield is

825
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 7: the much better technical striker. I think he throws much

826
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,560
Speaker 7: more volume. He can absolutely spend time on his back

827
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:43,880
Speaker 7: in this fight. I think Brady's a really good wrestler.

828
00:36:43,920 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 7: He's probably going to land takedowns here and Armfield has

829
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 7: been taken down in the past, but I don't know

830
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 7: what he's going to do with those takedowns. I think

831
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 7: he needs to finish the fight via submission, and if

832
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:55,359
Speaker 7: I was betting Billy's side, I think I'd rather bet

833
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 7: Brady via submission than taking his money line because I

834
00:36:58,320 --> 00:37:01,359
Speaker 7: think that's his likeliest win condition with those takedowns. If

835
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,439
Speaker 7: he's getting the takedowns and not doing anything with them,

836
00:37:04,719 --> 00:37:06,800
Speaker 7: I think he's gonna leave too much room for Armfield

837
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 7: to pop back up and land the damaging strikes and

838
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 7: win at least two of these three rounds. So the

839
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,720
Speaker 7: last thing I'll mention withdrew from his last two fights

840
00:37:14,719 --> 00:37:17,640
Speaker 7: with staff infection against them on Blacks here, then five

841
00:37:17,640 --> 00:37:20,479
Speaker 7: months later against Renney Nakamura. This is his first fight back,

842
00:37:21,760 --> 00:37:24,840
Speaker 7: so I think Armfield being more active, being healthy. The

843
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:28,120
Speaker 7: last time we saw him throwing all those strikes beat Brakkatona,

844
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 7: who I know Billy doesn't like because Billy bet against

845
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,719
Speaker 7: brag Katona last week. But that was you know, that

846
00:37:32,760 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 7: was an upset win for Armfield in Canada. So he's

847
00:37:37,440 --> 00:37:40,759
Speaker 7: proven that he can get taken down four times, pop

848
00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:42,760
Speaker 7: back up and land one hundred plus strikes.

849
00:37:42,800 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 5: He did it against Katona.

850
00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 7: I think he stand a better wrestler, a lesser striker

851
00:37:47,719 --> 00:37:50,200
Speaker 7: than Katona, so a bit more one dimensional. And the

852
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 7: last time Armfield thought more of a one dimensional grappler

853
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,280
Speaker 7: or knocked him out, So I think he wins by knockout.

854
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 7: I could see the path where he stand, but I

855
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:58,800
Speaker 7: would just prefer to bet it by sub if I

856
00:37:58,840 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 7: was betting the other side. So our field up to

857
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 7: you about minus one ninety minus two hundred for me.

858
00:38:04,960 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 1: Hey, Billy, why does the other side make more sense

859
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 1: to you?

860
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:10,720
Speaker 8: So, before I dive into that, because I was bragging

861
00:38:10,760 --> 00:38:13,120
Speaker 8: about my CLV earlier, got to take the l on

862
00:38:13,160 --> 00:38:15,760
Speaker 8: this one. I actually bet he standed a slightly worse line.

863
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 8: So check out my tratings you can see what I

864
00:38:17,920 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 8: took that one. At full disclosure. You know I'm going

865
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 8: to tell you when I got it right. Tell you

866
00:38:21,280 --> 00:38:23,719
Speaker 8: when I got it wrong with that, said, you know

867
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 8: your Shawn typically does. We both see both sides of this,

868
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 8: and he made some of my points for me and

869
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 8: talked about some of the things I'm worried about. Heaston

870
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 8: looks so uncomfortable in the striking, like it's not bad,

871
00:38:37,200 --> 00:38:39,279
Speaker 8: he just doesn't look like he wants to be there.

872
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:42,960
Speaker 8: But it's the smaller cage he's fighting. You guys, been

873
00:38:42,960 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 8: taken down a bunch of times his last fight against

874
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,480
Speaker 8: Dena betger L Betger Eye. However, we're saying that changes

875
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 8: every fight. He did land a lot more ground strikes.

876
00:38:52,080 --> 00:38:53,879
Speaker 8: I don't know how they only credit him with four.

877
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 8: He finished tkov a ground and pound where he landed

878
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:58,359
Speaker 8: like twenty hammerkifs on the ground.

879
00:38:58,680 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 6: There's two ways you can view that far.

880
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:04,880
Speaker 8: One is he stand was getting beat up, pulled a

881
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 8: miracle submission again or pulled a miracle finish and take

882
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 8: down against a tired guy at the end. That's a

883
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,040
Speaker 8: totally reasonable way to view that, because he was getting

884
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:14,200
Speaker 8: hurt on the feet, able to find the takedown do

885
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 8: it he need to do at the end. The other

886
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 8: view is this is a guy who's got good cardio

887
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 8: fairly good durability and is going to fight for your

888
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 8: money all fifteen minutes because he was down to nothing

889
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 8: and finished that fight with less than forty.

890
00:39:25,520 --> 00:39:27,719
Speaker 6: Seconds on the clock. That's the kind of guy I

891
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 6: want about it.

892
00:39:28,200 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 8: Plus money and similar to the early fight we were

893
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,080
Speaker 8: talking about, I'm taking the underdog in both of those fights.

894
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,000
Speaker 6: I don't know how the judges are going to handle it.

895
00:39:36,040 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 8: When we've got one guy doing more control than one

896
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:41,640
Speaker 8: guy doing more damage on the feet. It seems to

897
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 8: vary by state by fight by which particular judge we're getting.

898
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,680
Speaker 8: And again, when there's that uncertainty, that's just where I

899
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 8: want the plus money and the nice thing for our

900
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,080
Speaker 8: personal rivalry debate whatever here.

901
00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:54,040
Speaker 6: If my pick loses, I can say I had the

902
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 6: plus money guy. Of course he lost.

903
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 8: If you win, you know, what are you gonna do, Torella,

904
00:39:57,840 --> 00:39:59,319
Speaker 8: You've got nothing to come back at me with, So

905
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 8: for sure, yeah, there you go, a little bit of

906
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 8: house money. Is there's one a couple of weeks ago

907
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 8: where I bet two guys at like plus one oh

908
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:07,920
Speaker 8: five and you're on the other side. I'm like made,

909
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:11,280
Speaker 8: you know, one twentieth of unit I win, So obviously

910
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:14,759
Speaker 8: kidding with that part. I took him at a worse price.

911
00:40:14,800 --> 00:40:16,760
Speaker 8: Wish I would have waited. I think at this price,

912
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 8: I just like the money line. He can finish those

913
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 8: ground and pounds. Also, another young guy, not even twenty

914
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 8: five or just turned twenty five. I do imagine he's

915
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:27,960
Speaker 8: better than his last fight. Final final point. If you

916
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 8: told me by getting staff infection, I could avoid a

917
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:33,760
Speaker 8: fight with Nny and Nakamira and get Garrett Armfield instead.

918
00:40:34,120 --> 00:40:36,000
Speaker 8: I would take that deal any day of the week.

919
00:40:36,080 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 8: So great career move by Brady Easton Paradolphia.

920
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:42,480
Speaker 1: So how about never mind you're going head to head?

921
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 1: I think the loser should have to wear their hat

922
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 1: forwards next week?

923
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 8: Oh wow, that is a punishment worth worse than death.

924
00:40:49,800 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 6: Brendon, I don't know how.

925
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:53,719
Speaker 1: Stakes right there, but yeah, because if you're watching on

926
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:58,320
Speaker 1: YouTube many of you do. We're all wearing a backwards

927
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 1: hat today summer time.

928
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:02,319
Speaker 5: Keep it going, kind to keep the streak going.

929
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:06,640
Speaker 1: So that's just my thoughts or hat at all. But Billy,

930
00:41:06,640 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 1: that would ruin the fun because Billy doesn't normally wear

931
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,239
Speaker 1: a hat, So maybe a hat forward just to mix

932
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:13,479
Speaker 1: it up. Throw a wrinkle in there. We'll think about

933
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: it all right, Very good, Shonzarello, Billy Ward. Find those

934
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:20,000
Speaker 1: guys in the app should they have anything before Saturday

935
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:25,640
Speaker 1: evening for UFC Fight Night ninety six. Yeah, keep an

936
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:27,839
Speaker 1: eye on those guys in the app. Find Billy's right

937
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 1: up Shonzillo's right ups over on the website. Billy has

938
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,520
Speaker 1: the luck ratings from earlier in the week. Use that

939
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:38,279
Speaker 1: at your convenience, and again, we'll be back next week.

940
00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 1: We're heading to Saudi Arabia for UFC next week, so

941
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: we'll be here to break it all down next Friday morning.

942
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,439
Speaker 1: That will conclude our podcast for Zillo and Billy Ward.

943
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:49,800
Speaker 1: Brendan Glasheen, thanks for tuning in to our UFC betting

944
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 1: preview here on the Action Network podcast. We are presented

945
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 1: by bet mgs Great Again.

946
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

947
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

948
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:12,160
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler