1
00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:15,920
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:21,640
Speaker 2: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast.

3
00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,279
Speaker 3: This is your UFC Fight Night two five betting preview.

4
00:00:25,320 --> 00:00:28,319
Speaker 3: Brendan glas Sheen with the usual crew here at the

5
00:00:28,320 --> 00:00:32,160
Speaker 3: Action Network Senior writer Sean Zarrillo. We have former professional

6
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:36,440
Speaker 3: MMA fighter and MMA analyst Billy Ward joining us UFC

7
00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:42,720
Speaker 3: Fight Night two five in inside Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio.

8
00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,560
Speaker 3: So I mean you could just call it Fight Night Columbus.

9
00:00:45,800 --> 00:00:49,360
Speaker 3: Looking forward to it this Saturday, thirteen fights, six on

10
00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,320
Speaker 3: the main card, seven prelimbs. We won't discuss every fight

11
00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,400
Speaker 3: here on the show if you're a new listener, but

12
00:00:54,480 --> 00:00:57,360
Speaker 3: what we will do is discuss the main event, which

13
00:00:57,360 --> 00:00:59,280
Speaker 3: we'll get to first. We'll also get into the guys

14
00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,280
Speaker 3: fight at the night. They also have favorite underdog plays,

15
00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,520
Speaker 3: favorite props. Billy will weigh in with a fantasy angle,

16
00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:07,880
Speaker 3: a daily fantasy angle, and then of course we'll rap

17
00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:12,040
Speaker 3: with best bets. So the main event this week Chris

18
00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,320
Speaker 3: Daukas at plus three ten he takes on Curtis Razor

19
00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:21,640
Speaker 3: Blades at minus four hundred. Both are top ranked heavyweight fighters.

20
00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:23,760
Speaker 3: You get the sense here, Sean, this could be a

21
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:28,640
Speaker 3: long drawn out battle, a bloodbath between these two. How

22
00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,240
Speaker 3: are you approaching this fight, the main event this week

23
00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:32,800
Speaker 3: in Columbus.

24
00:01:32,240 --> 00:01:35,720
Speaker 4: From a betting perspective, Yeah, Blades can give pretty much

25
00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,080
Speaker 4: every heavyweight a problem with his wrestling game. He is

26
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,479
Speaker 4: the wrestler, Daucas is the boxer. But that said, Blades

27
00:01:42,520 --> 00:01:44,560
Speaker 4: has some pretty good striking. He was piecing up Derek

28
00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:47,520
Speaker 4: Lewis before he decided to shoot in from across the

29
00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:50,600
Speaker 4: cage and ate an uppercut and died. Daucas has a

30
00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:53,200
Speaker 4: BJJ black belt, so he is pretty skilled in the

31
00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:56,440
Speaker 4: grappling realm. But a lot of this fight, probably if

32
00:01:56,480 --> 00:01:58,320
Speaker 4: Blades is winning, based on the line, that is what

33
00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:01,080
Speaker 4: is indicating eighty percent of the time time should be

34
00:02:01,120 --> 00:02:04,440
Speaker 4: spent with Blades either on top or up against the

35
00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,440
Speaker 4: fence in control positions. Blades is going to put a

36
00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,400
Speaker 4: grind on you. He's going to try to drag any

37
00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,200
Speaker 4: deep waters and eventually drown you and put you away.

38
00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:15,799
Speaker 4: But his top game isn't amazing. He doesn't have necessarily

39
00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:17,639
Speaker 4: great ground and pound, doesn't really have a ton of

40
00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,320
Speaker 4: submissions in his arsenal, So it's going to be more

41
00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:22,080
Speaker 4: of a grind, like you said, could be a drawn

42
00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:24,119
Speaker 4: out of fair, could end up going the full distance

43
00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,280
Speaker 4: and Blades winning a decision all twenty five minutes should

44
00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:29,680
Speaker 4: be the better minute winner here with that top control.

45
00:02:29,960 --> 00:02:33,800
Speaker 4: But Dacas is a dangerous boxer, very sharp hands, good power.

46
00:02:34,639 --> 00:02:36,640
Speaker 4: But Blades is going to have about twenty pounds on him.

47
00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:39,840
Speaker 4: The weight advantage should be pretty massive in this heavyweight fight.

48
00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:42,239
Speaker 4: So once Blades gets on top, I'm not sure that

49
00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:44,040
Speaker 4: Daucas is going to be able to get up. We've

50
00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,079
Speaker 4: seen some regional tape where he got stuck in his back,

51
00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,840
Speaker 4: seen some regional tape where he sort of fell off

52
00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:51,120
Speaker 4: cardio wise after the seven and a half minute mark.

53
00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:53,799
Speaker 4: So personally, for me, I played Blades in the over

54
00:02:53,840 --> 00:02:56,200
Speaker 4: one and a half rounds at Caesar's that was minus

55
00:02:56,200 --> 00:02:59,320
Speaker 4: one fifteen. Absolutely love that price. You can also play

56
00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,040
Speaker 4: Blades in the over two and a half rounds at

57
00:03:01,040 --> 00:03:03,480
Speaker 4: Points Bet. That's a prop there plus one twenty six.

58
00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:06,280
Speaker 4: I think either of those are solid bets. I'm expecting

59
00:03:06,280 --> 00:03:09,560
Speaker 4: a Blades's late round finish or a Blade's decision. Looked

60
00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,040
Speaker 4: at his late round props, just didn't think the prices

61
00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,680
Speaker 4: were juicy enough for my liking. So Blades in over

62
00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:17,040
Speaker 4: one and a half rounds minus one fifteen at Caesar's.

63
00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:18,640
Speaker 4: It's my best bet for this fight.

64
00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:23,400
Speaker 3: Blades has about twenty pounds on Ducas, and then to

65
00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:27,520
Speaker 3: Shawn's point, like average fight time is a huge, huge

66
00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:31,440
Speaker 3: discrepancy there edge too, Blades, So we'll see if he

67
00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,120
Speaker 3: can get his way. Billy, how about yourself, how are

68
00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:36,320
Speaker 3: you looking into betting this made event?

69
00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:39,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm actually on the opposite side of this one.

70
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,000
Speaker 5: I think the line being wheard at is predicated on

71
00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,360
Speaker 5: the assumption that Blades is the better grappler and he's

72
00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,040
Speaker 5: gonna win when they're wrestling or you know, grappling on

73
00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,240
Speaker 5: the ground. But I don't think that's necessarily the case.

74
00:03:49,280 --> 00:03:51,520
Speaker 5: You know, those Philly guys have really good submissions. His

75
00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,800
Speaker 5: brothers submitted everyone pretty much that he's fought. You know,

76
00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,720
Speaker 5: they train at the same place. It's not like Daucus

77
00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:59,560
Speaker 5: can't do it just because we haven't seen it yet.

78
00:04:00,000 --> 00:04:02,080
Speaker 5: And I'm glad you guys brought up the weight difference.

79
00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,400
Speaker 5: I think that actually favors Dacas. The later this fight

80
00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,360
Speaker 5: goes on, it takes a lot more energy to move,

81
00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:08,960
Speaker 5: you know, the two sixty two sixty five that Blades

82
00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,560
Speaker 5: it is than the Dacas at two thirty five two forty,

83
00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:13,720
Speaker 5: so I'm looking at a little bit of Dacas live

84
00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:15,640
Speaker 5: as well. But I also like his money line and

85
00:04:15,680 --> 00:04:18,200
Speaker 5: his submission props because you know, if Blades can't put

86
00:04:18,240 --> 00:04:19,760
Speaker 5: him away when they're on the ground, that's a lot

87
00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:21,679
Speaker 5: of time to be rolling around with the jiu jitsu

88
00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,200
Speaker 5: black belt, and he's a top end jiu jitsu black belt.

89
00:04:24,240 --> 00:04:26,560
Speaker 5: Not all those guys are created equal, but the Dawcas

90
00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:28,920
Speaker 5: brothers are near the higher end of that as far

91
00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:31,120
Speaker 5: as I'm may guys go. So I'm looking at plus

92
00:04:31,160 --> 00:04:32,840
Speaker 5: three fifty on the money line, and then the sub

93
00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,000
Speaker 5: is plus sixteen hundred, so you know, little sprinkle on

94
00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:36,560
Speaker 5: that as well.

95
00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:38,880
Speaker 4: One thing I want to add in his last fight

96
00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,880
Speaker 4: against cher Zina Rosenstrike, after getting knocked up by Lewis,

97
00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,640
Speaker 4: Blades looked really tentative. He looked kind of scared to

98
00:04:44,640 --> 00:04:46,640
Speaker 4: get hit. He did get hit in the eye. I

99
00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,159
Speaker 4: swallowed up a little bit. He's closing his eyes as

100
00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:52,080
Speaker 4: a shoot. He was shooting in for takedowns, So maybe

101
00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,600
Speaker 4: some mental things there after getting knocked out, not all

102
00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:56,479
Speaker 4: the way back, almost like a pitcher getting hit with

103
00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,560
Speaker 4: the bat of ball coming back at him. Seems to

104
00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:00,840
Speaker 4: be a little bit tense every time punches are coming

105
00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:02,920
Speaker 4: his way, so something to look out for with blades.

106
00:05:03,360 --> 00:05:05,360
Speaker 4: Maybe Daucas catches him being a little bit tight and

107
00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:06,279
Speaker 4: is able to put him down.

108
00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,239
Speaker 3: We'll find out if any of these main event fighters

109
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,560
Speaker 3: are worth a look in Daily Fantasy. We'll have that

110
00:05:11,640 --> 00:05:15,239
Speaker 3: later on in the show. A DFS breakdown of UFC

111
00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,040
Speaker 3: Fight Night two will five. Let's move to favorite underdogs.

112
00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:18,880
Speaker 3: Who do you like? Sean?

113
00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:22,440
Speaker 4: I'm gonna go with Chris Gutierrez plus one point twenty

114
00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:24,760
Speaker 4: at Bette Rivers. I know Billy's probably going to disagree

115
00:05:24,760 --> 00:05:27,479
Speaker 4: with me later on this play, but I like Gutierrez

116
00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,720
Speaker 4: here Bachirel very powerful right hand. He's going to be

117
00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,200
Speaker 4: dangerous in the first round, might even win the first round.

118
00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,320
Speaker 4: But the longer this fight goes, I do expect Utierras

119
00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:38,120
Speaker 4: to win more of the minutes. Baccherel has more of

120
00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,039
Speaker 4: the finishing upside, but Gutierra is much more of the

121
00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:44,320
Speaker 4: minute winning upside in my opinion. Kicks to all three levels.

122
00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:47,120
Speaker 4: He's a really good leg kicker, especially his stop guys

123
00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:51,480
Speaker 4: with like kicks. Before that said, he's much more diverse

124
00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:54,240
Speaker 4: in his striking game. Boxing is closer than I think

125
00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,880
Speaker 4: most people would assume it's going to be. Baccherel a

126
00:05:56,920 --> 00:06:00,000
Speaker 4: good boxer, but he's very much a headhunter. Doesn't target

127
00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,320
Speaker 4: get the body, and that's where you can hurt Gudieirez.

128
00:06:02,480 --> 00:06:04,680
Speaker 4: Gudierras doesn't get hit to the head as much, so

129
00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:06,960
Speaker 4: I think it's just a good matchup for him stylistically,

130
00:06:07,240 --> 00:06:09,719
Speaker 4: seeing bacher olled not react to kicks well in the past.

131
00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:12,599
Speaker 4: So Gudierra is plus one twenty fifty to fifty striker

132
00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:15,440
Speaker 4: versus striker matchup, gonna roll him on the money line.

133
00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,280
Speaker 4: I'm also going to play him by decision a plus

134
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:20,279
Speaker 4: two twenty five at bet MGM projected that line poster

135
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:22,960
Speaker 4: to plus one sixty six, so about a seven percent

136
00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:25,240
Speaker 4: edge in my projections both on the money line and

137
00:06:25,279 --> 00:06:27,240
Speaker 4: by decision for Chris Gutierrez.

138
00:06:27,720 --> 00:06:30,280
Speaker 3: Sean likes a dog. How about you, Billy It it

139
00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,200
Speaker 3: feels like you're you're gonna be a man talking about

140
00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:33,360
Speaker 3: dogs quite a bit today.

141
00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:36,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, a couple of them. The other one I'm really

142
00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:38,279
Speaker 5: interested in is also our flight of the Night between

143
00:06:38,360 --> 00:06:41,080
Speaker 5: kay Kara Franz and Askar Askarov. I'm on the Kara

144
00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:43,839
Speaker 5: France side of this. I'm seeing I think plus two forty,

145
00:06:43,960 --> 00:06:46,440
Speaker 5: maybe a little bit higher all the way up to

146
00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,960
Speaker 5: plus three hundred. So we're seeing this as kind of

147
00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:51,880
Speaker 5: another striker versus grappler matchup with Kara France being the

148
00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:54,800
Speaker 5: striker and Askarov being the grappler. But if you watch

149
00:06:54,880 --> 00:06:57,200
Speaker 5: the tape on Askrov, he takes a lot of attempts

150
00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,479
Speaker 5: before he gets a takedown. He's not always landing at

151
00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:01,760
Speaker 5: a super high percentage, and he also doesn't hold his

152
00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,640
Speaker 5: opponents down very well. And Carraa France has shown an

153
00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:06,760
Speaker 5: ability to get back up when he needs to. So

154
00:07:06,800 --> 00:07:08,880
Speaker 5: that's why I'm targeting this fight because we've got fifteen

155
00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,720
Speaker 5: minutes between these guys. Caraa France probably has the best

156
00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,080
Speaker 5: power in the division. He's got I think six or

157
00:07:14,120 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 5: seven knockdowns in his UFC career and seven is ish fights,

158
00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:19,680
Speaker 5: and that's just a long time to be standing in

159
00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:21,360
Speaker 5: front of a guy who's gonna keep getting back up

160
00:07:21,360 --> 00:07:23,240
Speaker 5: and keep getting back up. You know, this is a

161
00:07:23,560 --> 00:07:26,160
Speaker 5: possible title eliminator. I could see there these guys fighting

162
00:07:26,160 --> 00:07:28,240
Speaker 5: for a title next. That looks a lot better if

163
00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:29,840
Speaker 5: you come out and knock your opponent out than if

164
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:32,120
Speaker 5: you just squeak out, a decision, which Askarov has done

165
00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:34,840
Speaker 5: in his past three bouts. So I like caraa France

166
00:07:34,880 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 5: at plus three hundred, and I also like him to

167
00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:38,560
Speaker 5: win by knockout. At eight hundred. You can get the

168
00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,040
Speaker 5: stoppage at seven fifty. I'll take the better price on

169
00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:43,080
Speaker 5: knockout because I don't really see a submission coming from

170
00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:44,120
Speaker 5: the car of France side.

171
00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:51,400
Speaker 3: Cara France, you mentioned some significant strike statistics, and I'm curious,

172
00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:55,760
Speaker 3: very slight edge in strikes landed per minute, but then

173
00:07:56,240 --> 00:07:59,520
Speaker 3: the significant strikes, the edge goes to ask her Off.

174
00:07:59,520 --> 00:08:02,400
Speaker 3: So I'm arrius Sean, we're talking the fight of the

175
00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,080
Speaker 3: night now for the guys, their fight of the night.

176
00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:07,760
Speaker 3: Askaroff is at minus four hundred, and then the plus

177
00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:11,000
Speaker 3: money is significant on Kai Cara France at plus three hundred.

178
00:08:11,000 --> 00:08:14,800
Speaker 3: Askaroff has won fourteenth straight. Both fighters are top five

179
00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,960
Speaker 3: flyweight fighters. Sean way in on this one.

180
00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:22,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, Originally I thought it was pretty binary, and I

181
00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,600
Speaker 4: agree with Billy that the Cara France side, the way

182
00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:26,920
Speaker 4: to play him is either by knockout or inside the distance.

183
00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:29,160
Speaker 4: I have him plus seven to fifty at DraftKings inside

184
00:08:29,160 --> 00:08:31,760
Speaker 4: the distance projected that closer to plus five to twenty five.

185
00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:33,640
Speaker 4: So that is the way I'm going to play this fight.

186
00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:35,960
Speaker 4: I'm gonna sprinkle a tenth of a unit on his

187
00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,400
Speaker 4: inside the distance odds. But on the other side with Askarov,

188
00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:43,280
Speaker 4: thought he looked absolutely fantastic against Joseph and Abidez last

189
00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,760
Speaker 4: time out. I bet Joe b thought it was a

190
00:08:45,840 --> 00:08:50,200
Speaker 4: terrible bet. Askarov's striking looked improved, really, just absolutely maul

191
00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:52,600
Speaker 4: joeb In the grappling too, So do you think he's

192
00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,080
Speaker 4: a good wrestler, But we don't really have a lot

193
00:08:55,080 --> 00:08:57,840
Speaker 4: of tape on kaikarra France's scrambling ability, and at one

194
00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,560
Speaker 4: hundred and twenty five at flyweight, it's difficut to hold

195
00:09:00,559 --> 00:09:03,760
Speaker 4: people down. Now, car France got his back controlled by

196
00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:06,720
Speaker 4: Rogerio Boncerin. Askrov not really the kind of guy who's

197
00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:08,400
Speaker 4: going to take your back and just sort of hold it.

198
00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:11,200
Speaker 4: So if car France is able to scramble up, yeah,

199
00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,280
Speaker 4: he's going to make this fight much closer than the

200
00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,679
Speaker 4: current money line looks plus three hundred on his side

201
00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:18,520
Speaker 4: because he is probably the better striker. That said, I

202
00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:21,080
Speaker 4: think Askrov can keep it closer on the feet and

203
00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:24,160
Speaker 4: you might expect car fronts the speed of power advantages,

204
00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,760
Speaker 4: but askrov good front kick, you can sort of keep

205
00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:28,800
Speaker 4: you away, keep you at ranged until he's ready to

206
00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:31,720
Speaker 4: shoot him for takedown. So I had initially thought about

207
00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,640
Speaker 4: his decision. Prop. Car Franz is not the kind of

208
00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:36,720
Speaker 4: guy who's just going to accept bottom position though, and

209
00:09:36,800 --> 00:09:39,559
Speaker 4: sort of lay there for fifteen minutes. He'll probably give

210
00:09:39,640 --> 00:09:42,040
Speaker 4: up his neck for a submission at some point instead

211
00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,520
Speaker 4: of just laying on his back, So I'm expecting violence here.

212
00:09:44,520 --> 00:09:46,560
Speaker 4: I think this fight ends inside the distance, but I

213
00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:48,679
Speaker 4: think a much better odds are car Fence inside the

214
00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:50,760
Speaker 4: distance plus seven to fifty at draft Gags.

215
00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:53,320
Speaker 3: Carl Franz, by the way, just to win the fight

216
00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,080
Speaker 3: is a plus three twenty on DraftKings. So, as we

217
00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,280
Speaker 3: always like to remind you on this show, shop those

218
00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:02,640
Speaker 3: lines and give yourself the best edge. Before Saturday we

219
00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:04,640
Speaker 3: move on to our favorite props. That was the fight

220
00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:06,600
Speaker 3: of the night kind of blended in there with Billy's

221
00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,360
Speaker 3: favorite underdog plays, so we just naturally shifted right in.

222
00:10:10,440 --> 00:10:13,640
Speaker 3: Let's move to our favorite props for the weekend. Where

223
00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,040
Speaker 3: are you exploring Sean in the promp market?

224
00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,839
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really good card for prop betting. I'm

225
00:10:18,840 --> 00:10:21,920
Speaker 4: gonna give out a few here that I like. You know,

226
00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:23,720
Speaker 4: we just talked about car France inside of the distance,

227
00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:27,440
Speaker 4: but Matteas Nicolau probably my favorite decision prop aside from

228
00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:30,160
Speaker 4: Chris Gudierrez by decision plus two fifty at bet MGM

229
00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,040
Speaker 4: projected that closer to plus two hundred. I also like

230
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,040
Speaker 4: that fight to go to a decision with David Devorak.

231
00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,719
Speaker 4: Favorite inside the distance prop aside from car France, that

232
00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:42,040
Speaker 4: would be Alexa Grosso plus six hundred at BETMGM projected

233
00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:46,360
Speaker 4: that closer to plus four fifty. And then Jennifer Maya

234
00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:49,600
Speaker 4: by submission plus eighteen hundred. DraftKings projected that closer to

235
00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:53,080
Speaker 4: plus fifteen hundred. She wins that fight, she's probably gonna

236
00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,240
Speaker 4: have to do it with her grappling, and if she's grappling,

237
00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,360
Speaker 4: she's gonna have a chance at submission. So plus eighteen

238
00:10:57,440 --> 00:11:00,520
Speaker 4: hundred probably the best long shot submission board on the

239
00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:01,360
Speaker 4: card for tomorrow.

240
00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:03,920
Speaker 3: Billy, your favorite prop please?

241
00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:07,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm looking at Eliir Latifi by knockout at plus

242
00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:10,080
Speaker 5: one eighty. This really isn't so much because I'm that

243
00:11:10,120 --> 00:11:12,760
Speaker 5: impressed by Latifi. He's you know, got to win in

244
00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,680
Speaker 5: this last one. Not super aggressive, but he is fighting

245
00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,559
Speaker 5: forty four year old Alexi. Olenick has been knocked out

246
00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,360
Speaker 5: in two of his last three fights. This is the

247
00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:24,080
Speaker 5: same fight we saw last week with Pavlovitch and abdur Rekamanov.

248
00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:27,319
Speaker 5: We've got an older guy, you know, well into his forties,

249
00:11:27,559 --> 00:11:29,800
Speaker 5: taking a couple of knockouts. As Sean likes to point out,

250
00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:31,520
Speaker 5: could be even older than that. I don't know. He

251
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:33,840
Speaker 5: might be fifty for all we know these Russian fighters,

252
00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,600
Speaker 5: so you know, your chin doesn't get better with age,

253
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:39,200
Speaker 5: your defense doesn't get better with age. Once those knockouts

254
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:42,160
Speaker 5: start coming, they don't really stop. And he's also a

255
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:44,880
Speaker 5: smaller heavyweight Olynic. That is his last way in was

256
00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,640
Speaker 5: two twenty eight, so you know he's facing a much

257
00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:50,800
Speaker 5: bigger and much stronger guy well into his forties. I

258
00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,400
Speaker 5: think Latifi eventually finishes this one.

259
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,280
Speaker 3: It feels like Olenic is getting a generous two forty

260
00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:00,520
Speaker 3: weight total. That does that feel generous or.

261
00:12:01,240 --> 00:12:04,160
Speaker 5: I haven't seen the weig INDs today. I've got topology

262
00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,000
Speaker 5: with his two twenty eight. At his last flight, he

263
00:12:06,080 --> 00:12:07,800
Speaker 5: might have came in a little bit heavier, but no

264
00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:09,760
Speaker 5: he's six to two. He's not like a little guy

265
00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:10,600
Speaker 5: or anything.

266
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,360
Speaker 3: But true fair. We'll move on to our daily fantasy

267
00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:17,840
Speaker 3: outlook for UFC Fight Night two five. It's in Columbus, Ohio.

268
00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:21,360
Speaker 3: Brendan Glasheen with Sean Zarrillo Billy Ward still have best

269
00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:23,959
Speaker 3: bets on the way, so be sure to stay tuned

270
00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:27,880
Speaker 3: for those. Okay, Billy, so as I like to ask

271
00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:29,880
Speaker 3: you each and every week when you look at the

272
00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:33,120
Speaker 3: contest you jump in and you're trying to figure out

273
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,880
Speaker 3: makes sense of the salaries? Who makes sense to anchor

274
00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:39,560
Speaker 3: this week's lineups? If you were trying to put together

275
00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:40,120
Speaker 3: a GPP.

276
00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,959
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I'm I'm going a little bit off

277
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:45,480
Speaker 5: the rails here and trying to get one of either

278
00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:48,560
Speaker 5: Dacas or Cara France in each of my DPP lineups.

279
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:50,840
Speaker 5: They're both cheap. I don't think they're going to be

280
00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,400
Speaker 5: super under owned, but you know, those underdogs usually come

281
00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:55,400
Speaker 5: in a little bit less than the favorite, and both

282
00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,160
Speaker 5: guys if they win it, it's probably gonna be by

283
00:12:57,200 --> 00:12:59,680
Speaker 5: a finish, you know. For cash, I'm kind of okay

284
00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:01,400
Speaker 5: playing favorites a little bit more, but those are my

285
00:13:01,440 --> 00:13:02,720
Speaker 5: two favorites for GPPs.

286
00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:06,680
Speaker 3: Okay, very nice. So both main event fighters should be

287
00:13:06,720 --> 00:13:10,160
Speaker 3: involved according to Billy in cash games, but those GPPs

288
00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,760
Speaker 3: you can spend a little bit more. How about finding

289
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,520
Speaker 3: some of those middle tier fighters with salaries.

290
00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:20,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I don't really love a ton of

291
00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,400
Speaker 5: the greater than nine thousand salary fighters this week. Just

292
00:13:23,440 --> 00:13:26,080
Speaker 5: there's not great stopajoj on most of those. So for

293
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,959
Speaker 5: my GPPs outside of you know, Blades, if you're mixing

294
00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:31,280
Speaker 5: him in and kidz Reeve who was just added to

295
00:13:31,280 --> 00:13:34,440
Speaker 5: the playerpool at ninety three hundred, I think those guys

296
00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,400
Speaker 5: have pretty good salaries for their expected outcome. But I

297
00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:41,160
Speaker 5: really like batcherrel at eighty five hundred, Latifi as I

298
00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:44,280
Speaker 5: mentioned at eighty six, Slavacos is eighty seven, and then

299
00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:46,720
Speaker 5: Neil Magnet eighty eight. I'm kind of mixing and matching

300
00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,679
Speaker 5: those guys in with most of my lineups. I think

301
00:13:48,679 --> 00:13:50,920
Speaker 5: they all have a decent shot at winning by stoppage,

302
00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:53,439
Speaker 5: so we can get an extra one of those guys

303
00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,520
Speaker 5: versus a super expensive fighter, and then we need to

304
00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,040
Speaker 5: find some value, which I mentioned Carea France and Dacas.

305
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,480
Speaker 5: I also like Nickel Sean brought him up. He's seventy

306
00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,600
Speaker 5: eight hundred on draftings salary, So that's another one I'm

307
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:05,800
Speaker 5: looking for on the cheap side.

308
00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:07,720
Speaker 3: So Sean, if you want to jump in, I know

309
00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:10,080
Speaker 3: this is more of Billy's wheelhouse, but it feels like

310
00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:14,000
Speaker 3: based on our betting discussions of finding value in some

311
00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,520
Speaker 3: of these fighters that have these longer shot odds, it

312
00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:19,360
Speaker 3: is it is a pretty good week from a DFS

313
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:21,880
Speaker 3: standpoint to kind of jump in and you have that

314
00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:25,600
Speaker 3: edge from if you're dissecting things from a betting angle

315
00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:28,400
Speaker 3: for this particular weekend, you might have an edge there

316
00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:30,560
Speaker 3: tracking value in Daily Fantasy.

317
00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,960
Speaker 4: It feels like absolutely, you know, I try to align

318
00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,280
Speaker 4: my DFS picks, not necessarily with my bets, but with

319
00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:40,760
Speaker 4: fighters who I think are cheaper and can finish, or

320
00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:43,400
Speaker 4: I think have safe floors for cash games who are

321
00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:47,000
Speaker 4: more expensive. So the guy who really stands out this

322
00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:51,080
Speaker 4: week is ali Ashkob. His rev' is like minus twelve

323
00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,200
Speaker 4: hundred on the money line. He's minus three fifty to

324
00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:57,520
Speaker 4: finish inside the distance. Billy, are you putting Kissev in

325
00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,680
Speaker 4: all your lineups? Are you looking to fade the market

326
00:14:59,680 --> 00:15:01,560
Speaker 4: with them? How are you approaching his reev? Because I

327
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:04,120
Speaker 4: think how you handle him is sort of you know

328
00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:05,400
Speaker 4: where you get to start this week.

329
00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think I'll probably have him in most of

330
00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:09,720
Speaker 5: my lineup. I like to have you know, one or

331
00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:11,960
Speaker 5: two just in case he wins with the disappointing score.

332
00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:13,840
Speaker 5: But he came in a little bit cheaper than I thought,

333
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,160
Speaker 5: given the betting market that you put out there, I

334
00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,000
Speaker 5: thought he'd be ninety six, ninety five hundred and then

335
00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:21,080
Speaker 5: in ninety three is just a really tough fade, which is,

336
00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:22,800
Speaker 5: you know why you can't really afford one of those

337
00:15:22,800 --> 00:15:25,360
Speaker 5: other expensive fighters, which then leads me to the Cara

338
00:15:25,400 --> 00:15:27,760
Speaker 5: Francis and the daccases. But you know, I'll probably do

339
00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 5: at least one or two lineups going in the other direction,

340
00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,080
Speaker 5: just in case he he could win and score seventy

341
00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,680
Speaker 5: or eighty points and be a disappointment, all right.

342
00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:36,760
Speaker 4: Yes, I always like to point out too, there's there's

343
00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,000
Speaker 4: three women's fights on this card, and any time you

344
00:15:39,040 --> 00:15:41,240
Speaker 4: get you know, two, three women's fights on a card,

345
00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:43,160
Speaker 4: there's a good chance that at least one of those

346
00:15:43,160 --> 00:15:44,880
Speaker 4: fighters is going to be in the optimal lineup, and

347
00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:47,120
Speaker 4: they tend to be under own relative to the male fighters,

348
00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,760
Speaker 4: So good way to start, you know, with your lineups,

349
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:52,280
Speaker 4: if you're using optimizers, take one or two of the

350
00:15:52,360 --> 00:15:54,920
Speaker 4: female fighters, you know, make them around and build some

351
00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:56,960
Speaker 4: lineups around those, because good chance that go have a

352
00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:58,920
Speaker 4: unique lineup compared to other competitors.

353
00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, to that point, I really like man On Fioro,

354
00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:06,240
Speaker 5: but they're all really expensive. Like we're just not getting

355
00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:08,360
Speaker 5: those fights with the closer salaries from the women, which

356
00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:10,320
Speaker 5: makes it a little bit tougher because you almost have

357
00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,400
Speaker 5: to have a stoppage when your fighters over nine thousand.

358
00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:16,240
Speaker 5: But Fioro throws over eighty strikes per round, so she

359
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,440
Speaker 5: might be the one that can score enough points without

360
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,480
Speaker 5: getting a finish and still make it to the optimal

361
00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:23,120
Speaker 5: even at ninety two, ninety three hundred something like that.

362
00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, ninety four hundred most expensive. So there you go.

363
00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,560
Speaker 3: That's good stuff. But another week where we have at

364
00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:34,600
Speaker 3: least in the DraftKings Contest five salaries north of nine

365
00:16:34,600 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 3: thousand or more, which in previous weeks a little more

366
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:40,080
Speaker 3: top heavy, and then it kind of comes down at notch.

367
00:16:40,400 --> 00:16:42,840
Speaker 3: Before we wrap up this episode here on the Action

368
00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:45,320
Speaker 3: Network podcast, we have to get to best bets for

369
00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:49,720
Speaker 3: UFC Fight Night two O five will go Sean then Billy.

370
00:16:49,840 --> 00:16:51,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I was actually going to say that

371
00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,000
Speaker 4: Goody Airs was my best bet. I think that Blades

372
00:16:54,040 --> 00:16:56,440
Speaker 4: in over one and a half is probably my best

373
00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:58,480
Speaker 4: fut on this part. I really like that number again

374
00:16:58,520 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 4: minus one fifteen at Caesars. You can parlay those two

375
00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:02,840
Speaker 4: numbers together Blades in the over one and a half rounds,

376
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:04,159
Speaker 4: and it's one of the few books that'll let you

377
00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:06,360
Speaker 4: do that. But I just want to talk about one

378
00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,480
Speaker 4: more fight here before we go that I am betting

379
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:11,040
Speaker 4: that I like quite a bit for this weekend. The

380
00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:14,640
Speaker 4: featured bout between Brian Barberina and Matt Brown. Both these

381
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:17,119
Speaker 4: guys are kind of washed at this point, to be

382
00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,200
Speaker 4: honest with you, but Barberina is nine years younger. Trust

383
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,800
Speaker 4: is Volume Moore, trust is Cardio Moore, trust is durability

384
00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:27,280
Speaker 4: ever so slightly more. I don't really expect Brown to

385
00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,360
Speaker 4: come out here and have some grappling success, and I'm

386
00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 4: surprised that the line as close as it is, I

387
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:34,639
Speaker 4: would make Barberina closer to sixty percent here. I also

388
00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:37,040
Speaker 4: like the fight to end inside the distance made that

389
00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:40,119
Speaker 4: closer to seventy percent round minus two twenty, so just

390
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:43,320
Speaker 4: under seventy percent, So Barberina minus one away at FanDuel

391
00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:45,680
Speaker 4: fight to end inside the distance minus one eighty six

392
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 4: at FanDuel. Like that fight pretty much as much as

393
00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,840
Speaker 4: the Gutierres or the Blades fights this weekend.

394
00:17:52,359 --> 00:17:54,440
Speaker 3: Billy Ward your best bet for the weekend.

395
00:17:55,040 --> 00:17:57,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, before I totally disagree with Sean on my best bet,

396
00:17:57,480 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 5: I gotta say I'm on the same side on the

397
00:17:59,680 --> 00:18:02,480
Speaker 5: Brian Barberina. I could have swarm At Brown retired like

398
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,240
Speaker 5: five six years ago, and every.

399
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,400
Speaker 4: Time he came back, yeah, yeah, and every.

400
00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:07,440
Speaker 5: Time I see him fight a go. This is the

401
00:18:07,520 --> 00:18:09,520
Speaker 5: last time I'm seeing Matt Brown in the octagon, and

402
00:18:09,560 --> 00:18:11,000
Speaker 5: then he gets booked for another one. I have no

403
00:18:11,040 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 5: idea how he's still doing it, but anyway, Yeah, I'm

404
00:18:14,280 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 5: going with Bacherl Dana or Dana Batgerild. They seem to

405
00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:19,640
Speaker 5: have switched his first and last names lately. I get

406
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:21,800
Speaker 5: where Sean's coming from on the Gudiera's angle, I do.

407
00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:25,679
Speaker 5: I just think Batcherill's volume in his kind of overwhelming style,

408
00:18:26,200 --> 00:18:28,200
Speaker 5: one plays really well to the judges if it goes

409
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,320
Speaker 5: that far. But two, he's gonna catch him at some point.

410
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 5: I just think he's gonna land something to the head

411
00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 5: where Gudier is gonna live off leg kicks. The caveat

412
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:38,520
Speaker 5: to that I will say is if it looks like

413
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,280
Speaker 5: Gudier's is landing leg kicks early, I'm willing to hedge

414
00:18:41,320 --> 00:18:43,280
Speaker 5: off that bet with a live bet on him. Especially

415
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 5: if Batcheril wins the first round but eats a few

416
00:18:45,960 --> 00:18:48,200
Speaker 5: leg kicks in the process, then I'm probably gonna fire

417
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:49,879
Speaker 5: live in the other direction and try to hedge that

418
00:18:49,880 --> 00:18:50,280
Speaker 5: one off.

419
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,640
Speaker 3: Great stuff, gentlemen, looking forward to it this weekend Again.

420
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 3: UFC Fight Night two o five inside Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio,

421
00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 3: thirteen Fights just gave you a full breakdown the six

422
00:19:02,320 --> 00:19:05,440
Speaker 3: main card events, seven prelimbs. Great stuff from both Shan

423
00:19:05,520 --> 00:19:07,920
Speaker 3: Zarillo and Billy Ward. You can find their great work

424
00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,919
Speaker 3: over on the Action Network. Thank you again everybody for

425
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 3: tuning into the Action Network podcast. That was a UFC

426
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,720
Speaker 3: Fight Night two h five vetting preview. I'm Brendan glass Sheen.

427
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,360
Speaker 3: We will catch you next time. Best of luck this weekend.