WEBVTT - Spotify Betting Big on Podcasts

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day

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<v Speaker 1>we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of

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<v Speaker 1>business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on

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<v Speaker 1>in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing

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<v Speaker 1>the power of Business Week reporters and editors. If you

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<v Speaker 1>can download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com. If you can also listen to a radio

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<v Speaker 1>show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be

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<v Speaker 1>sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>Global News. Global virus cases him nine one million topping

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<v Speaker 1>million deaths, surpassing one million vaccines given out more than

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nine million shots given worldwide. Cannot come soon enough

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<v Speaker 1>to vaccine for for widespread vaccination, I should say exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>and figures cross that it continues to pick up speed.

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<v Speaker 1>Back with us is Dr Sandro Golea. He's Dina Professor

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<v Speaker 1>at Boston University School of Public Health, author of Pained

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<v Speaker 1>Uncomfortable Conversations about the Public's health. He joins us once

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<v Speaker 1>again on the phone from Boston. Dr Golea, nice to

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<v Speaker 1>have you here, Happy New Year. How are you tell

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<v Speaker 1>me kind of what's going on in your world from

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<v Speaker 1>an academic level as all, as well as from what

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing on the vaccine in COVID. Happy New Year, Carol,

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<v Speaker 1>and happy new year, kim. Um. I am, I am.

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<v Speaker 1>As we've discussed on the show before, I'm unfortunately well

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<v Speaker 1>and my family as well. And these are these are

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<v Speaker 1>difficult times. I find myself entering the new year with

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<v Speaker 1>an equal mix of trepidation and hope, and on any

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<v Speaker 1>given day, I try to make sure that hope overtakes trepidation.

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<v Speaker 1>Now you know why trepidation, Well, we have a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of challenges we're still facing as a country, separate and

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<v Speaker 1>apart from the politics that we are all living through.

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<v Speaker 1>We COVID remains a really important problem. The economy, which

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<v Speaker 1>is a result of COVID remains an important problem. And

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<v Speaker 1>and all of this, as we've discussed, is on a

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<v Speaker 1>foundation of structural issues like racism that we have been

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with as a country for a long time. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think those things all give me trepidation. All of

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<v Speaker 1>a sudden, I want you for an hour. I'm just

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<v Speaker 1>going to tell you, um, Sandral, let me ask you

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<v Speaker 1>something though. What we saw last tweak obviously the dysfunction

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<v Speaker 1>um that I think it's safe to say has been

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<v Speaker 1>caused by our president, whether it's internally within the government

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<v Speaker 1>and then more more broadly across society. How do you

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<v Speaker 1>think that has hindered in some ways the rollout of

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<v Speaker 1>the COVID nineteen vaccine. I think enormously. I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>we can over overstate how much lack of federal leadership

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<v Speaker 1>has hindered their response to COVID. We've vaccinated about nine

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<v Speaker 1>million people in the country right now, and if we

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<v Speaker 1>keep vaccinating at this rate, it will take us two

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<v Speaker 1>years before we vaccinated the whole country, which of course

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<v Speaker 1>is unacceptable. And remember this is in the in the

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<v Speaker 1>context of a lot of promises that have been made

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<v Speaker 1>by the by the executive branch. So politics has been

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<v Speaker 1>an integral part of the COVID story right from the beginning.

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<v Speaker 1>It has been a part of the story as to

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<v Speaker 1>why we separated from who, has been part of the

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<v Speaker 1>story why half the country doesn't seem to believe that

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<v Speaker 1>COVID is a real thing. It's been part of the

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<v Speaker 1>story as to why we do or don't go a

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine or masks. And I think it's a real reminder. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, Rudolf Rca, one of the fathers of microbiology,

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<v Speaker 1>said that medicine is politics on a grand scale, and

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<v Speaker 1>we've never seen that more clearly than we have in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty. I'm wondering about the rollout of vaccine right

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<v Speaker 1>now here we are, we're almost exactly a month into

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<v Speaker 1>when that first shot was given. What have we learned

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<v Speaker 1>about the right way to give people the vaccine? And

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<v Speaker 1>I mean age wise, profession wise, what is the right approach? Well, fundamentally,

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<v Speaker 1>our priorities are right, and by that I mean that

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<v Speaker 1>we are prioritizing healthcare workers and people at highest risk,

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<v Speaker 1>and those are people at the older age groups and

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<v Speaker 1>people with underlying conditions. So I think all of that

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<v Speaker 1>we have the concepts correct. I think what where we're

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<v Speaker 1>stumbling is really at the implementation and the programatics. So

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of things that we've learned. Number one is

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<v Speaker 1>that the guidelines are being interpreted very strictly in clinics

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<v Speaker 1>and hospitals and nursing homes, which means that a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of vaccine is going unused because there are not enough

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<v Speaker 1>people in that risk category greed to get the vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>In that particular spot and that care needs to be loosen.

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<v Speaker 1>And number two, we are realizing that the vaccine distribution

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<v Speaker 1>is going through these formal channels of hospitals and nursing homes,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's not happening fast enough to get to the

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<v Speaker 1>people who are at high risk, people over a certain age,

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<v Speaker 1>and people with underlying conditions. And there are states that

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<v Speaker 1>have done well, you know, we shouldn't forget that. For example,

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<v Speaker 1>West Virginia had vaccinated everybody in its in its assistant

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<v Speaker 1>living facilities nursing homes before Christmas, which is quite remarkable,

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<v Speaker 1>and they did that by contracting out the CPS and Walgreens.

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<v Speaker 1>Other states have taken approaches that are right now controversial,

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<v Speaker 1>for example Florida creating large vaccination sides for people over

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<v Speaker 1>the age of six to five. But ultimately the right

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<v Speaker 1>answer has to be determined state by state. But it's

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<v Speaker 1>pretty clear to me that we need to make sure

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<v Speaker 1>that the vaccine is available very very quickly, with criteria

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<v Speaker 1>that are clear about who's prioritized, but flexible enough to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure that the vaccine can be delivered quickly. In

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<v Speaker 1>a particular context, we are also seeing a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of hesitancy from healthcare workers. The reporting shows that it's

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<v Speaker 1>not necessarily doctors, but different people who work at long

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<v Speaker 1>term care facilities and hospitals as well. What's the right

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<v Speaker 1>messaging to make sure that they're fully informed on why

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<v Speaker 1>they should get the vaccine. I think the messaging is simple,

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<v Speaker 1>that the vaccine is safe, it's effective, and fundamentally doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>just help the personnel takes them, it helps the rest

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<v Speaker 1>of us remember what we're trying to achieve as collective immunity.

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<v Speaker 1>So tim you're being vaccinated helps me, My being vaccinator

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<v Speaker 1>helps Carol. And I think there is a personal need

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<v Speaker 1>to take the vaccine to make sure that would protect ourselves,

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<v Speaker 1>but also a collective obligation to take the vaccine to

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<v Speaker 1>improve our collective immunity. And I think that message I

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<v Speaker 1>suppose I go back to where I started, Carol, with

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<v Speaker 1>my mix of trepidation and hope. My hope is that

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<v Speaker 1>in the next few weeks, the common sense is going

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<v Speaker 1>to prevail that enough people will recognize that we are

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with a safe, effective vaccine to help us end

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<v Speaker 1>a really terrible pandemic that has paralyzed the world. And

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to see much less of that hesitancy and

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<v Speaker 1>weeks going forward. I do want to ask you and

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<v Speaker 1>I have to say, um, Dr Galaia, Tim and I

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<v Speaker 1>kind of went back and forth. Do we want to

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<v Speaker 1>bring this up? But it is the second most read

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<v Speaker 1>story on the Bloomberg. It's from the New York Times

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<v Speaker 1>and it talks about a Florida physician who developed an

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<v Speaker 1>unusual blood disorder shortly after he received the Fiser vaccine.

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<v Speaker 1>Not yet known if the shot is linked um to

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<v Speaker 1>the illness, and he did die from an unusually severe

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<v Speaker 1>blood disorder sixteen days after receiving that vaccine. Help me

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<v Speaker 1>out here. How are we to be smart about when

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<v Speaker 1>we hear stories like this? Yeah, that's an excellent question.

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<v Speaker 1>The what we have to remember is that that when

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<v Speaker 1>you're giving vaccines to millions of people, the vaccine is

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<v Speaker 1>a point in time and other things are going on

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<v Speaker 1>to people's lives that precipitate illness. So it becomes very

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<v Speaker 1>difficult for us as humans to say, well, the vaccine happened,

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<v Speaker 1>and something bad happened, Well, therefore the vaccine must have

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<v Speaker 1>caused it. The reassurance we have is that these vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>that are in the market right now we're tested on

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<v Speaker 1>hundreds of thousands of people. Literally, the side effects are

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<v Speaker 1>every single one is monitored carefully by a review committee,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's been nothing in the trials that suggests that

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<v Speaker 1>these vaccines cause these kind of severe illnesses like the

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<v Speaker 1>one that's being right now discussed as potentially being in

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<v Speaker 1>conjunction with somebody who took the vaccine. So this is true,

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<v Speaker 1>This is true for all vaccines. And a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the anti vaccine movement that was really triggered by some

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<v Speaker 1>shoddy science around children who took vaccines and then developed autism,

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<v Speaker 1>And the science has now pretty conclusively demonstrated that the

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<v Speaker 1>development of autism terrible diagnosis, really had nothing to do

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<v Speaker 1>with taking the vaccine. It was These were diagnosies that

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<v Speaker 1>were going to happen anyway, and the vaccine was just

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<v Speaker 1>one of a series of events. To think of it

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<v Speaker 1>another way, if somebody develops a disease, well, we seldom

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<v Speaker 1>go back and think of the fact, well they crossed

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<v Speaker 1>the street two weeks before, and and of course if

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<v Speaker 1>we if we actually focused on cross industry, would they say, well,

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<v Speaker 1>that person developed developed the disease because he crossed the street.

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<v Speaker 1>Now I'm not saying that to minimize and I really

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<v Speaker 1>want to be careful that I what misunderstood, because I

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<v Speaker 1>do think that in a moment like this, all those

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<v Speaker 1>cases should be taken seriously and the signs should be

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<v Speaker 1>looking very carefully to make sure that there's nothing we're missing.

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<v Speaker 1>But there are systems in place, and we as a

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<v Speaker 1>country are very good at looking at these cases and

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<v Speaker 1>making sure that there's nothing that we're missing. And Dr Glaia.

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<v Speaker 1>We should note that the article goes further to point

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<v Speaker 1>out that roughly nine million people here in the US

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<v Speaker 1>have received the vaccine already, and as far as side

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<v Speaker 1>effects go, the most serious problems recorded reported were these

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nine cases of anaphylaxis, that's the severe allergic reaction,

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<v Speaker 1>and none of those were fatal. Remind us, did you

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<v Speaker 1>get and and those and those were among people are

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<v Speaker 1>and those were among people who previously had history of

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<v Speaker 1>an ephylaxis and allergic reactions to think, sorry, go ahead them. No.

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<v Speaker 1>I was just gonna remind us, did you get vaccinated yet? No?

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<v Speaker 1>I have not. I'm I don't. I'm not patient facing,

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<v Speaker 1>meaning you know, I run a school of public health

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<v Speaker 1>and although a lot of our students and the number

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<v Speaker 1>of faculty deal with patients. I don't on a day

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<v Speaker 1>to day basis, so I'm not in the in the

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<v Speaker 1>high risk category. So I will I will wait my

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<v Speaker 1>turn when that comes in a few months. But you

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<v Speaker 1>would be comfortable getting any of these vaccines that are

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<v Speaker 1>available and have been tested now. Oh, if I if

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<v Speaker 1>I could get the vaccine tomorrow, I would, But I

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<v Speaker 1>also I also want to respect the fact that there

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<v Speaker 1>are people who are higher risk than I am, and

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<v Speaker 1>they should get the vaccine first. But if if if

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine were we able tomorrow, I would, I would

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<v Speaker 1>need it because I would like to make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>I'm no longer at risk of getting COVID, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think all all your listeners should feel the same way. Listen,

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<v Speaker 1>before we leave, we'd be remiss if we didn't ask

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<v Speaker 1>you forty five seconds here, Um, what's going on at

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<v Speaker 1>Boston University School of Public cath or you bring students back?

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<v Speaker 1>What's the expectation? And just got about forty five seconds. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>The our current our current thinking is to do what

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<v Speaker 1>we did in the fall, which is where we create

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<v Speaker 1>an opportunity for students to learn in person if they

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<v Speaker 1>if they need to learn in person. We will teach

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<v Speaker 1>some students in person, some digitally, so it will be

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<v Speaker 1>a bit of and mix. But many universities, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>like Princeton and Brown, who who they were not in

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<v Speaker 1>person in the fall, are now coming back in the

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<v Speaker 1>spring and doing just that, which is saying to students,

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<v Speaker 1>if you need to learn in person, your circumstances are

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<v Speaker 1>such that you need to be here in person will

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<v Speaker 1>create those conditions for you, and the students who want

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<v Speaker 1>to learn from home can learn from home. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much. Always learn us so much when you come

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<v Speaker 1>on with us. So thank you so much. Stay safe

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<v Speaker 1>and look forward to next time. Dr Sandra Gala, he's

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<v Speaker 1>dean at the Boston University School of Public Health. On

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<v Speaker 1>the phone from Boston, and do check out his book.

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<v Speaker 1>We've talked a lot about the inequities when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to health care. He's written a book it's called Pained

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<v Speaker 1>Uncomfortable Conversations about the Public's Health. I mean, this is

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like a conversation we have to continue to have. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I think one thing that's become clear is that the

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic has exposed so much about our society that so

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<v Speaker 1>many people were familiar with but we're finally having a

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<v Speaker 1>conversation of about the inequities and inequalities within our health

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<v Speaker 1>care system and perhaps what we can do to finally

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<v Speaker 1>start to address those. Yeah, life at large, and hopefully

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<v Speaker 1>those conversations lead to actions. This is Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Spotify it's the most

0:11:04.320 --> 0:11:07.040
<v Speaker 1>popular paid music service in the world. Stock swored something

0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:09.800
<v Speaker 1>like a ten percent last year, It's up another nine

0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:12.560
<v Speaker 1>percent so far this year, and yet kind of little thing.

0:11:12.600 --> 0:11:14.440
<v Speaker 1>It hasn't turned a profit since it's founding back in

0:11:14.480 --> 0:11:18.080
<v Speaker 1>two thousand six, So what is it's big better profitability?

0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:21.760
<v Speaker 1>This story covers that reporting for Bloomberg Business Week, Lucas Shaw,

0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:24.240
<v Speaker 1>he is Bloomberg News Entertainment reporter on the phone in

0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:26.600
<v Speaker 1>l a along with Bloomberg Business Week editor Joe Weber

0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:29.280
<v Speaker 1>on the access line in Brooklyn. This is such a

0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:31.480
<v Speaker 1>smart story, really everything and anything you want to know

0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:36.760
<v Speaker 1>about Spotify and it's plans to be profitable. Joel. Yeah,

0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:39.920
<v Speaker 1>And if I rewind my relationship with with Lucas, I

0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:41.880
<v Speaker 1>think the very first time I met him, when I

0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.800
<v Speaker 1>like took over Bloomberg Business Week, he like stopped me

0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:47.880
<v Speaker 1>in my tracks, and we just he was like podcast

0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:52.040
<v Speaker 1>man podcast and he's he's so right, and and this

0:11:52.240 --> 0:11:55.920
<v Speaker 1>story is a modest reflection of it. And the you know,

0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:57.720
<v Speaker 1>the thing that I kind of love about it is,

0:11:57.720 --> 0:12:00.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, Spotify has long been a music service, and

0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:04.319
<v Speaker 1>along that way they realize that music is actually not

0:12:04.360 --> 0:12:07.640
<v Speaker 1>that profitable. A lot of that revenue ends up having

0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:09.920
<v Speaker 1>to go back to the record labels, and they've been

0:12:10.000 --> 0:12:14.800
<v Speaker 1>unsuccessful at really um being able to like have artists

0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:18.840
<v Speaker 1>come directly to them. But what they've realized is that

0:12:19.080 --> 0:12:23.800
<v Speaker 1>podcasts have gigantic revenue potential. So so Lucas Joe Rogan

0:12:23.920 --> 0:12:27.800
<v Speaker 1>is the thing that everybody knows. But what does Spotify

0:12:28.400 --> 0:12:33.960
<v Speaker 1>having the works? Spotify has plans for any kind of

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:36.040
<v Speaker 1>show you can think of, and then ten other kinds

0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:38.120
<v Speaker 1>of shows you probably never thought about. I mean, they

0:12:38.240 --> 0:12:42.120
<v Speaker 1>bought Bill Simmons company. He hosts a very popular sports podcast,

0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.559
<v Speaker 1>and they're now working on dozens of different sports and

0:12:44.640 --> 0:12:48.160
<v Speaker 1>pop culture shows. They have, you know, Jamal Hill coming

0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:52.360
<v Speaker 1>into work on network of shows and buy for Black Women.

0:12:52.440 --> 0:12:54.760
<v Speaker 1>They have Michelle Obama, they have to do con Dutchess

0:12:54.800 --> 0:12:58.000
<v Speaker 1>of Pussics. They make kind of really cheaply made true

0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.439
<v Speaker 1>crime shows. They're working on shows all of the world,

0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:03.320
<v Speaker 1>both as originals and translations. You know, think about the

0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:06.440
<v Speaker 1>exhaustion you feel trying to consider how many different TV

0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:08.960
<v Speaker 1>shows are available right now, and then multiply that times

0:13:08.960 --> 0:13:14.080
<v Speaker 1>about a hundred or a thousands for podcasts. So for years,

0:13:14.160 --> 0:13:18.600
<v Speaker 1>Lucas this was a sort of idea of experience when

0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:22.200
<v Speaker 1>it came to music streaming services, right the same music

0:13:22.360 --> 0:13:25.359
<v Speaker 1>was offered on Apple Music that was offered on Spotify

0:13:25.600 --> 0:13:29.640
<v Speaker 1>that some people had title whatever YouTuber Google was calling that,

0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:32.319
<v Speaker 1>you know, their current music service had the same music.

0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:35.880
<v Speaker 1>Um but now it seems to have changed because of

0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.720
<v Speaker 1>of podcasts. Do you see this sort of evolving in

0:13:38.760 --> 0:13:42.440
<v Speaker 1>the way that streaming video services have evolved, where if

0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.199
<v Speaker 1>you want to listen to Joe Rogan or if you

0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:47.440
<v Speaker 1>want to listen to Michelle Obama, the only place to

0:13:47.520 --> 0:13:51.480
<v Speaker 1>do that ultimately will be with a Spotify subscription. I

0:13:51.480 --> 0:13:55.240
<v Speaker 1>think it'll be very similar to just streaming TV, but

0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:58.920
<v Speaker 1>with a slight change in that some of the podcasts

0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:03.920
<v Speaker 1>may still to be available everywhere. There is not a

0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:07.160
<v Speaker 1>dominant player in podcasting it. Spotify is not there yet,

0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:10.640
<v Speaker 1>especially not in the US, and so for some shows

0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:14.079
<v Speaker 1>it it really hurts their potential audience size to only

0:14:14.120 --> 0:14:18.559
<v Speaker 1>be there. But you'll see them play with windows of exclusivity,

0:14:18.600 --> 0:14:20.240
<v Speaker 1>and there's lots of different forms of that. So the

0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:24.880
<v Speaker 1>Michelle Obama podcast started as a Spotify exclusive. Now that

0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:27.240
<v Speaker 1>it's it's been off for several months and Spotify sort

0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:29.600
<v Speaker 1>of sucked up all the potential customers. It has been

0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:33.359
<v Speaker 1>distributed more widely in other places. A show like The Rewatchables,

0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.560
<v Speaker 1>which Bill Simmons company makes, where they kind of talk

0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:39.520
<v Speaker 1>about old movies. All those new episodes are available everywhere,

0:14:39.560 --> 0:14:41.200
<v Speaker 1>but if you want to go back and listen to

0:14:41.240 --> 0:14:43.760
<v Speaker 1>any of the older episodes, you have to go to Spotify.

0:14:43.840 --> 0:14:45.320
<v Speaker 1>So I think we're gonna see a lot of playing

0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:49.040
<v Speaker 1>with that, and definitely Spotify competitors are starting to do

0:14:49.120 --> 0:14:51.320
<v Speaker 1>the same. You know, Amazon just bought Wondering, which is

0:14:51.320 --> 0:14:54.440
<v Speaker 1>a podcast studio and has struck rights for exclusive shows.

0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:57.240
<v Speaker 1>Apple has a handful of exclusive shows. But I think

0:14:57.240 --> 0:14:59.840
<v Speaker 1>we're going to see them really increase that investment at

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:04.560
<v Speaker 1>point in the next twelve eighteen months, just under Rewatchable,

0:15:04.560 --> 0:15:09.840
<v Speaker 1>as I highly recommend the point break episode that, Yeah,

0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:13.160
<v Speaker 1>it's so good but but Lucas, you you brought up

0:15:13.880 --> 0:15:16.520
<v Speaker 1>a couple of competitors there, and you know, Apple is

0:15:16.600 --> 0:15:19.400
<v Speaker 1>one that I'm I'm really curious about because you know,

0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:22.280
<v Speaker 1>a couple of years ago when they spun off podcasts

0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:25.160
<v Speaker 1>as a separate thing from from iTunes, this was before

0:15:25.200 --> 0:15:28.160
<v Speaker 1>sort of Apple Music. They sort of had a missed

0:15:28.200 --> 0:15:32.240
<v Speaker 1>opportunity there, and it seems like Spotify is really doubled

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:36.760
<v Speaker 1>down on it and by making uh podcasts such as

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 1>Steamless part of the user interface. So so who's who's

0:15:41.080 --> 0:15:45.240
<v Speaker 1>ultimately the on the team within Spotify. That's that's you know,

0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:50.760
<v Speaker 1>cracked this code. Well, it started with an executive named

0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:54.000
<v Speaker 1>Courtney Holt, I would say, who joined after a long

0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:57.520
<v Speaker 1>career in media. He dabbled in trying to make original

0:15:57.600 --> 0:16:01.400
<v Speaker 1>videos work at Spotify and thenically glommed onto this idea

0:16:01.440 --> 0:16:05.480
<v Speaker 1>of building a podcasting apparatus. He knew he was smart

0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:07.160
<v Speaker 1>enough to kind of know what he didn't know, and

0:16:07.200 --> 0:16:10.040
<v Speaker 1>so he went out kind of armed with the checkbook

0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.960
<v Speaker 1>to buy a bunch of companies that were studios they

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.880
<v Speaker 1>could bring in to create the infrastructure right away. So

0:16:16.120 --> 0:16:19.920
<v Speaker 1>they bought Gimlet Media, which is a really good podcast

0:16:19.920 --> 0:16:22.880
<v Speaker 1>studio based in New York, perhaps best known for the

0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:25.920
<v Speaker 1>show Reply All. The guys who were on Gimlet Media

0:16:26.000 --> 0:16:29.160
<v Speaker 1>are now Spotify employees are overseeing a lot of the

0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:32.520
<v Speaker 1>podcasting business, not just Gimlet. They bought podcast which was

0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:35.920
<v Speaker 1>another studio based in Los Angeles. They bought Anchor, which

0:16:35.920 --> 0:16:38.200
<v Speaker 1>was the technology company they brought in again, they bought

0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:41.480
<v Speaker 1>the Simon company, and so they have you know, there's

0:16:41.520 --> 0:16:43.720
<v Speaker 1>a whole new part of that business. I was talking

0:16:43.800 --> 0:16:46.360
<v Speaker 1>with somebody on the music side recently to acknowledge that

0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.960
<v Speaker 1>there were hundreds of Spotify employees and an entire group

0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:52.760
<v Speaker 1>and teams that they didn't know and they almost never

0:16:52.800 --> 0:16:55.040
<v Speaker 1>interfaced with. And it's it's a really you know, it's

0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:58.920
<v Speaker 1>a bet the company kind of move for Spotify. So

0:16:59.000 --> 0:17:01.200
<v Speaker 1>I gotta ask you. I mean mentioned uh coming in

0:17:01.240 --> 0:17:05.080
<v Speaker 1>the stock up more last year or so. Investors are

0:17:05.560 --> 0:17:10.080
<v Speaker 1>kind of betting big. They've got expectations, Um, Lucas, have

0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:13.880
<v Speaker 1>they cracked the code from becoming profitable based on all

0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:17.320
<v Speaker 1>of your reporting. I gotta say, those ad insertions, of

0:17:17.400 --> 0:17:21.440
<v Speaker 1>streaming ad insertions drive me crazy. Um, but if you're

0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:24.800
<v Speaker 1>paying for it, it does, right, Yeah, So I do

0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:29.679
<v Speaker 1>wonder like, have they cracked the code? The way I

0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:32.160
<v Speaker 1>like to think about it is that that Daniel Act,

0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:35.840
<v Speaker 1>Spotifies CEO, has bought himself time to figure it out.

0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.040
<v Speaker 1>They definitely have not cracked the code yet. Podcasting is

0:17:39.040 --> 0:17:42.720
<v Speaker 1>still a very small business. Um, and I agree that

0:17:43.000 --> 0:17:46.440
<v Speaker 1>kind of delivering at people who pay for Spotify premium

0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:48.159
<v Speaker 1>is something that they might have to work on in

0:17:48.160 --> 0:17:50.760
<v Speaker 1>the future. But what they're trying to do is to

0:17:50.920 --> 0:17:53.479
<v Speaker 1>just continue to get bigger and bigger. Spotify now has

0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:57.000
<v Speaker 1>more than three hundred million customers, more than forty million paid.

0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:59.960
<v Speaker 1>If they can get to five hundred million US six

0:18:00.040 --> 0:18:03.359
<v Speaker 1>hundred million, seven hundred millions, that becomes so big that

0:18:03.440 --> 0:18:06.160
<v Speaker 1>I just think that advertisers have to take it seriously

0:18:06.480 --> 0:18:09.359
<v Speaker 1>and you'll see more of that money shift over from radio,

0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:11.679
<v Speaker 1>because radio, for all of its problems in the U.

0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:15.520
<v Speaker 1>S Alone, is like at fifteen billion dollar business. If

0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:18.359
<v Speaker 1>Spotify can take five billion of that money at a

0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:21.280
<v Speaker 1>better margin than has on On on the paid service,

0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.520
<v Speaker 1>right then it becomes a real business. We're just not

0:18:23.640 --> 0:18:28.280
<v Speaker 1>there yet. Yeah, Well, expectations are definitely high on Wall Street. Um.

0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:31.400
<v Speaker 1>It's an incredible story. There's so much detail, it's such

0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:34.520
<v Speaker 1>a smart read and another great report by Lucas Shaw. Lucas,

0:18:34.520 --> 0:18:37.320
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Entertainment reporter at Bloomberg News with

0:18:37.400 --> 0:18:38.840
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from l A. Check them out

0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:42.520
<v Speaker 1>at Twitter at Lucas Underscore Shaw. Jill Webber, of course,

0:18:42.640 --> 0:18:45.160
<v Speaker 1>editor of Bloomberg Business Week on the remote Access from Brooklyn.

0:18:45.480 --> 0:18:49.080
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and

0:18:49.160 --> 0:18:53.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovy on Bloomberg Radio, you are

0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week and a top story today

0:18:56.600 --> 0:18:58.439
<v Speaker 1>because I think it's safe to say that many of

0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:01.080
<v Speaker 1>us believe that in figuring out what would wrong last Wednesday,

0:19:01.119 --> 0:19:03.240
<v Speaker 1>the riot and breaching of the capital, we need to

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:06.119
<v Speaker 1>understand those that did it, ask the question why, and

0:19:06.200 --> 0:19:09.200
<v Speaker 1>we need to talk to them. Tim, Yeah, we do. Um.

0:19:09.240 --> 0:19:13.119
<v Speaker 1>This was just a fascinating piece by our colleague William Turton.

0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:16.240
<v Speaker 1>No regrets a capital riot or tells his story from

0:19:16.280 --> 0:19:18.679
<v Speaker 1>the inside, and I think a lot of people are

0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:22.119
<v Speaker 1>wondering what were these people thinking. Unfortunately, we have William

0:19:22.160 --> 0:19:24.520
<v Speaker 1>with us to really help shine a light on that. Yeah,

0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:26.120
<v Speaker 1>he's on the phone in New York City. The story

0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:28.320
<v Speaker 1>among the most right on the Bloomberg. Williams, so good

0:19:28.320 --> 0:19:30.760
<v Speaker 1>to have you here. It's a must read for everyone.

0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:34.639
<v Speaker 1>So tell us about the individual that you talked to.

0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:38.840
<v Speaker 1>Brandon Fellows. Hi, thanks for having me on. So. Brendon

0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.119
<v Speaker 1>Fellows is a twenty six year old from upstate New

0:19:41.200 --> 0:19:43.600
<v Speaker 1>York who decided to go to the Trump rally when

0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:46.119
<v Speaker 1>he saw a tweet from President Trump in December he

0:19:46.119 --> 0:19:47.600
<v Speaker 1>said there's going to be a big rally on the

0:19:47.600 --> 0:19:50.400
<v Speaker 1>sixth and DC. He said, to be there. It will

0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:53.240
<v Speaker 1>be wild. So when when Fellows saw that tweet, he

0:19:53.280 --> 0:19:55.560
<v Speaker 1>decided to go to DC. And you know, something really

0:19:55.560 --> 0:19:57.640
<v Speaker 1>revealing that he told me is that, you know, while

0:19:57.680 --> 0:19:59.919
<v Speaker 1>he does believe the election was rigged and he had

0:20:00.000 --> 0:20:02.120
<v Speaker 1>has been, you know, consuming a lot of content about

0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:06.840
<v Speaker 1>electand fraud, his primary motivation was his anger at government

0:20:06.880 --> 0:20:10.720
<v Speaker 1>shutdowns due to due to coronavirus, which I thought was

0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:14.040
<v Speaker 1>really kind of fascinating. Yeah, that part was really interesting,

0:20:14.080 --> 0:20:17.320
<v Speaker 1>william And I wonder to what it says about the

0:20:17.440 --> 0:20:19.800
<v Speaker 1>idea of you know, there's so much psychology here, right, like,

0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:22.760
<v Speaker 1>why were these people who many of whom are now apologizing,

0:20:23.440 --> 0:20:27.120
<v Speaker 1>what what sort of sparked them to to actually make

0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:30.639
<v Speaker 1>this move to to do something. Um, And and what

0:20:30.720 --> 0:20:34.080
<v Speaker 1>did he tell you about that? Well, something fascinating about

0:20:34.080 --> 0:20:36.720
<v Speaker 1>Brandon is that, um, he had never been to a

0:20:36.720 --> 0:20:41.040
<v Speaker 1>Trump rally before, and when he came to this rally,

0:20:41.160 --> 0:20:43.320
<v Speaker 1>he didn't even know that there was a march. He

0:20:43.400 --> 0:20:46.399
<v Speaker 1>simply came to see to see Trump speak. So he

0:20:46.560 --> 0:20:50.320
<v Speaker 1>quite literally got swept up into the mob. Um when

0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:52.600
<v Speaker 1>he joined this march. And by the time he had

0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:56.320
<v Speaker 1>already reached the Capitol, the outside perimeter had been breached.

0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.719
<v Speaker 1>So you know, he walked onto the Capital law and

0:20:59.200 --> 0:21:02.080
<v Speaker 1>scaled a wall and eventually climbed through a window to

0:21:02.119 --> 0:21:04.960
<v Speaker 1>get into the Senate. And once inside, he got into

0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:08.480
<v Speaker 1>the office of Senator Murkley at Democrats Oregon um where

0:21:08.520 --> 0:21:10.320
<v Speaker 1>he put his sweet up on the table and smoked

0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:13.800
<v Speaker 1>to joint. Why did he did he understand he was

0:21:13.840 --> 0:21:17.240
<v Speaker 1>breaking the law by doing that? You know, it's it's

0:21:17.280 --> 0:21:22.000
<v Speaker 1>hard to know. He claims that because he wasn't being

0:21:22.080 --> 0:21:25.160
<v Speaker 1>arrested while inside, and in fact, the police officer gave

0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:29.080
<v Speaker 1>him directions to the statue hall inside the Capitol, that

0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:30.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, he was under the assumption he wasn't doing

0:21:30.920 --> 0:21:34.720
<v Speaker 1>anything wrong. Um. You know, of course, the kind of

0:21:35.400 --> 0:21:37.920
<v Speaker 1>it's difficult to believe, but but you know, I think

0:21:37.920 --> 0:21:40.119
<v Speaker 1>it's revealing he he did not think that he was

0:21:40.160 --> 0:21:41.960
<v Speaker 1>going to get in trouble for for doing this based

0:21:41.960 --> 0:21:44.880
<v Speaker 1>on the reaction of the police officers. You know. You

0:21:44.880 --> 0:21:46.919
<v Speaker 1>you talk about in the piece that he's had some

0:21:46.960 --> 0:21:52.600
<v Speaker 1>friction with his family over this and over his beliefs. Like, yeah,

0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:55.720
<v Speaker 1>and I think it's it's it's probably something that we're

0:21:56.119 --> 0:21:57.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot of us can relate to with the way

0:21:57.920 --> 0:22:01.520
<v Speaker 1>that disagreements politically are are happening it now, Um, yeah,

0:22:01.880 --> 0:22:06.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering after talking to him, UM, take us through

0:22:06.280 --> 0:22:09.920
<v Speaker 1>like what he's planning to do moving forward? I mean,

0:22:10.440 --> 0:22:13.120
<v Speaker 1>how do how does one move past an inflection point

0:22:13.160 --> 0:22:16.679
<v Speaker 1>like this? Well, you know, I'm not sure in speaking

0:22:16.680 --> 0:22:19.439
<v Speaker 1>to him if he's actually grappled with the fact that

0:22:19.480 --> 0:22:22.520
<v Speaker 1>he's done something wrong. Um, you know, and and you know,

0:22:22.520 --> 0:22:24.200
<v Speaker 1>one of the reasons we know that is because he's

0:22:24.200 --> 0:22:27.640
<v Speaker 1>planning actually to return to d C for for more

0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:31.600
<v Speaker 1>events on the twenties surrounding the inauguration. But you know,

0:22:31.680 --> 0:22:33.919
<v Speaker 1>I think you both made a really interesting point at

0:22:33.920 --> 0:22:36.000
<v Speaker 1>the beginning of this program, and that you know, some

0:22:36.040 --> 0:22:38.359
<v Speaker 1>people will say that that we shouldn't listen to people,

0:22:38.520 --> 0:22:41.680
<v Speaker 1>and and that by talking to them is platforming them.

0:22:41.680 --> 0:22:44.399
<v Speaker 1>But I think they're wrong. It's actually really important to

0:22:44.480 --> 0:22:47.320
<v Speaker 1>understand the psychology and motivations of these people. And there's

0:22:47.320 --> 0:22:49.439
<v Speaker 1>a really good example of that. I mean, these folks

0:22:49.440 --> 0:22:51.840
<v Speaker 1>said that they planned to storm the capital on the sixth,

0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:54.360
<v Speaker 1>no one listened to them, no one took them seriously,

0:22:54.640 --> 0:22:56.760
<v Speaker 1>and then they actually did it. Um. So you know,

0:22:57.440 --> 0:22:59.439
<v Speaker 1>I think just in general, we need to we need

0:22:59.520 --> 0:23:01.879
<v Speaker 1>to actually listened to what these people are saying. Well, well well,

0:23:02.040 --> 0:23:04.280
<v Speaker 1>even and Tim and I were talking beforehand. You know,

0:23:04.680 --> 0:23:06.600
<v Speaker 1>I really do want to understand these voters. I know

0:23:06.680 --> 0:23:09.040
<v Speaker 1>Tim does too, like how did we get to this point?

0:23:09.119 --> 0:23:12.320
<v Speaker 1>And we need to stop ignoring you know, parts of

0:23:12.359 --> 0:23:14.639
<v Speaker 1>the voting public are parts of the country, because this

0:23:14.680 --> 0:23:16.600
<v Speaker 1>is how we get to these places. I mean, you

0:23:16.680 --> 0:23:19.119
<v Speaker 1>tell his story. He lives in a converted school bus,

0:23:19.119 --> 0:23:21.440
<v Speaker 1>he stopped working last spring because of fears of COVID

0:23:21.520 --> 0:23:25.840
<v Speaker 1>nineteen um and you said, you know, he became disillusioned

0:23:25.840 --> 0:23:28.359
<v Speaker 1>when New York State denied him unemployment benefits. I mean,

0:23:28.640 --> 0:23:31.240
<v Speaker 1>we have we talked about the opioid epidemic in the

0:23:31.280 --> 0:23:34.400
<v Speaker 1>past that people who were just kind of lost in society.

0:23:34.560 --> 0:23:37.320
<v Speaker 1>I mean, we really need to understand these stories and

0:23:37.359 --> 0:23:40.440
<v Speaker 1>these individuals who feel like there is no voice for them.

0:23:40.560 --> 0:23:44.080
<v Speaker 1>And this is where the President, in many large ways,

0:23:44.240 --> 0:23:46.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, did speak to them. Right. But I think

0:23:47.119 --> 0:23:49.760
<v Speaker 1>it's also important to understand that these people are becoming

0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:52.359
<v Speaker 1>radicalized by the internet. I mean, he told me that

0:23:52.400 --> 0:23:54.919
<v Speaker 1>he gets the majority of his news from YouTube. He

0:23:55.000 --> 0:23:58.520
<v Speaker 1>pointed out Ben Shapiro and Stephen Crowder. He also said

0:23:58.560 --> 0:24:01.720
<v Speaker 1>he's recently started watching news Act and One American News,

0:24:01.920 --> 0:24:05.560
<v Speaker 1>which have both promoted false claims of a rigged election. So,

0:24:05.840 --> 0:24:09.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, the culpability of platforms like YouTube and Facebook,

0:24:09.720 --> 0:24:12.439
<v Speaker 1>um and Twitter are are a parent in this In

0:24:12.480 --> 0:24:14.719
<v Speaker 1>this riot, it's no different than forgive me because I'm

0:24:14.760 --> 0:24:17.040
<v Speaker 1>hearing radicalized by the Internet. It's no different than we

0:24:17.040 --> 0:24:19.320
<v Speaker 1>talked about terrorists. Right, we think about nine eleven, and

0:24:19.359 --> 0:24:22.000
<v Speaker 1>after nine eleven that individuals who are being radicalized by

0:24:22.040 --> 0:24:25.240
<v Speaker 1>the internet. We saw that as a bad thing. Yes,

0:24:25.280 --> 0:24:27.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean a lot of folks who ended up joining

0:24:27.040 --> 0:24:29.560
<v Speaker 1>the Islamic State were radicalized by YouTube, right, I mean,

0:24:29.920 --> 0:24:32.399
<v Speaker 1>it didn't just happen on the Homeland series. I'm just

0:24:32.400 --> 0:24:35.960
<v Speaker 1>going to say folks, it didn't just on Homeland. Well, well, William,

0:24:36.000 --> 0:24:37.680
<v Speaker 1>we bring up a really good point because you mentioned

0:24:37.760 --> 0:24:41.040
<v Speaker 1>news networks one America News, you mentioned news Max, and

0:24:41.320 --> 0:24:44.680
<v Speaker 1>you talked about YouTube. And the platforms that have really

0:24:44.680 --> 0:24:47.000
<v Speaker 1>gotten all the attention in the last six days have

0:24:47.119 --> 0:24:50.639
<v Speaker 1>been Twitter and Facebook because of their actions against President Trump,

0:24:51.000 --> 0:24:54.400
<v Speaker 1>and in Amazon because of it's deep platforming of of Parlor.

0:24:54.520 --> 0:24:56.959
<v Speaker 1>But the conversation is much bigger when it comes to

0:24:57.680 --> 0:25:01.679
<v Speaker 1>the message and the radicalization right right, And and you

0:25:01.760 --> 0:25:05.560
<v Speaker 1>make a good point. I mean YouTube is really dodging uh,

0:25:05.840 --> 0:25:08.160
<v Speaker 1>a lot of criticism here that that that I think

0:25:08.240 --> 0:25:11.680
<v Speaker 1>needs to be focused on them. I mean, their platform

0:25:11.800 --> 0:25:14.399
<v Speaker 1>is sort of unlike any other in terms of pumping

0:25:14.400 --> 0:25:19.199
<v Speaker 1>out misinformation. And for years now, um, you know, the algorithm,

0:25:19.359 --> 0:25:25.240
<v Speaker 1>the YouTube recommendation algorithm has prioritized the most diverse, divisive content,

0:25:25.320 --> 0:25:28.080
<v Speaker 1>which pushes people to the kind of more crazier and

0:25:28.160 --> 0:25:31.679
<v Speaker 1>zanier conspiracies. And and you know, you know, from what

0:25:31.720 --> 0:25:33.680
<v Speaker 1>we've been able to tell, YouTube has done very little

0:25:33.680 --> 0:25:38.480
<v Speaker 1>to address I I wonder, I mean, you obviously can't

0:25:38.520 --> 0:25:42.080
<v Speaker 1>make prescriptions here, but um, you know what what does

0:25:42.280 --> 0:25:45.000
<v Speaker 1>Why do you think YouTube has avoided some of the

0:25:45.000 --> 0:25:46.920
<v Speaker 1>conversation that we've seen over the last week. Why do

0:25:46.960 --> 0:25:49.080
<v Speaker 1>you think it's sort of the sleeping giant when it

0:25:49.119 --> 0:25:53.240
<v Speaker 1>comes to radicalization. Well, it's really hard for journalists and

0:25:53.320 --> 0:25:56.920
<v Speaker 1>researchers and other people to actually kind of quantify and

0:25:57.000 --> 0:26:00.160
<v Speaker 1>show the amount of misinformation because of the nature your

0:26:00.359 --> 0:26:02.880
<v Speaker 1>videos themselves. I mean, it's kind of like a law

0:26:03.040 --> 0:26:05.639
<v Speaker 1>of large numbers problem. I mean, in a tweet or

0:26:05.720 --> 0:26:08.000
<v Speaker 1>Facebook post, right, it's apparent, right, you can just see

0:26:08.000 --> 0:26:10.080
<v Speaker 1>a screenshot and you can see what's happening. But in

0:26:10.280 --> 0:26:12.760
<v Speaker 1>videos that you know, maybe our thirty minutes or an

0:26:12.760 --> 0:26:16.080
<v Speaker 1>hour long, it's it's way more nuanced and way more

0:26:16.080 --> 0:26:21.200
<v Speaker 1>difficult to actually moderate. Um So, yeah, but that's why

0:26:21.200 --> 0:26:23.640
<v Speaker 1>people have focused on the recommendation algorithm as a thing

0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:26.040
<v Speaker 1>that they could do to not prioritize this kind of

0:26:26.160 --> 0:26:30.320
<v Speaker 1>most divisive content. Our thanks to our William Turton uh

0:26:30.400 --> 0:26:38.320
<v Speaker 1>Sobersecurity Report the journal. Yeah but you let me drive,

0:26:38.600 --> 0:26:43.320
<v Speaker 1>Oh no, no, no no, non, please, I'll do the right

0:26:45.280 --> 0:26:52.639
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to dry, just drive, baby. It's the

0:26:52.840 --> 0:27:07.600
<v Speaker 1>question to try to the Globe Dawn Radio stepstick talk

0:27:07.720 --> 0:27:11.520
<v Speaker 1>everyone about eleven minutes left in today's trading session, Charlie

0:27:11.640 --> 0:27:14.359
<v Speaker 1>giving you that rundown and we're bouncing around. We're off

0:27:14.400 --> 0:27:16.480
<v Speaker 1>definitely a far lows. In fact, we're working our way up.

0:27:16.520 --> 0:27:18.800
<v Speaker 1>We're back in the green uh here when it comes

0:27:18.800 --> 0:27:21.240
<v Speaker 1>to those major averages. Great to have back with us,

0:27:21.280 --> 0:27:24.480
<v Speaker 1>Janna Burton, she's co director of Growth Equity over to Advance.

0:27:24.560 --> 0:27:27.440
<v Speaker 1>She judges us on the phone from Boston. UM, nice

0:27:27.480 --> 0:27:30.160
<v Speaker 1>to have you here. How are you. I'm doing great,

0:27:30.200 --> 0:27:32.520
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me back. Happy new here, Happy new Year.

0:27:32.560 --> 0:27:34.520
<v Speaker 1>What's going on in your world? Tell me like we

0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:36.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, we turned the calendar page. Not a lot

0:27:37.000 --> 0:27:40.520
<v Speaker 1>really changes. But I have to say the last week, UM,

0:27:40.560 --> 0:27:43.280
<v Speaker 1>I think there's a lot of soul searching about democracy,

0:27:43.400 --> 0:27:46.520
<v Speaker 1>what our nation means, thinking about politics, what a new

0:27:46.560 --> 0:27:50.359
<v Speaker 1>administration ultimately is going to mean, and what division means

0:27:50.800 --> 0:27:53.360
<v Speaker 1>with him, not just politics, but within our nation. So

0:27:53.720 --> 0:27:55.639
<v Speaker 1>I don't know, is there some way to tie that

0:27:55.680 --> 0:27:58.040
<v Speaker 1>in and and come out with an outlook on the

0:27:58.040 --> 0:28:01.639
<v Speaker 1>other side? Well said, And I think change is the

0:28:01.760 --> 0:28:05.440
<v Speaker 1>only constant, right, So I think it's an equity investor,

0:28:05.560 --> 0:28:08.199
<v Speaker 1>you have to appreciate that there are always cross currents

0:28:08.200 --> 0:28:11.760
<v Speaker 1>in the marketplace to your political economic now where in

0:28:11.800 --> 0:28:15.520
<v Speaker 1>the midst of a pandemic, with hopefully some light at

0:28:15.560 --> 0:28:18.560
<v Speaker 1>the end of the tunnel. But I think again, um,

0:28:18.720 --> 0:28:24.040
<v Speaker 1>given some prospects for investors, it's no surprise that equity

0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:28.119
<v Speaker 1>markets could be volatile. That's why SMP actually declines on

0:28:28.160 --> 0:28:31.480
<v Speaker 1>average about fifteen percent per year. But over the long term,

0:28:31.520 --> 0:28:35.120
<v Speaker 1>over the past five ten years, it's generated in excess

0:28:35.160 --> 0:28:37.639
<v Speaker 1>of that. Um. Wait, wait, explain that again. You're saying,

0:28:37.640 --> 0:28:41.280
<v Speaker 1>on average, the SMP is down for the year. Know

0:28:41.520 --> 0:28:44.719
<v Speaker 1>what I What I'm saying is on average you usually

0:28:44.720 --> 0:28:47.920
<v Speaker 1>experience what folks refer to as a draw down meeting

0:28:48.000 --> 0:28:50.880
<v Speaker 1>to work from the peak to the trough levels. On

0:28:50.920 --> 0:28:54.280
<v Speaker 1>any sort of calendar year basis or a a twelve month

0:28:54.320 --> 0:28:56.400
<v Speaker 1>period that you look at, on average, it's about a

0:28:56.440 --> 0:29:00.000
<v Speaker 1>fifteen percent decline last year. Unfortunately, most of us remember

0:29:00.200 --> 0:29:03.280
<v Speaker 1>who was twice that level, whereas AB five under declined

0:29:03.320 --> 0:29:06.840
<v Speaker 1>almost So. I guess to your point, we've got a

0:29:06.920 --> 0:29:10.360
<v Speaker 1>lot to digest right now, both on the fundamental basis

0:29:10.400 --> 0:29:12.840
<v Speaker 1>as well as the macro basis, as well as the

0:29:12.880 --> 0:29:16.400
<v Speaker 1>political side of the equation. But I think as an investor,

0:29:16.560 --> 0:29:19.560
<v Speaker 1>our job is to look forward, and as we sit

0:29:19.600 --> 0:29:22.680
<v Speaker 1>here today, we think that this is going to be

0:29:22.760 --> 0:29:27.320
<v Speaker 1>a good backdrop for equity investors, particularly those focused on

0:29:27.360 --> 0:29:31.720
<v Speaker 1>the long term. Why because secular stories that we've talked

0:29:31.760 --> 0:29:34.560
<v Speaker 1>about for many, many years as still with us, but

0:29:34.720 --> 0:29:38.200
<v Speaker 1>now we can play those alongside cyclical stories, so that

0:29:38.320 --> 0:29:42.440
<v Speaker 1>economic recovery in the industrials, in the consumer discretion in

0:29:42.480 --> 0:29:45.680
<v Speaker 1>discretionary space, as well as some of the stable um

0:29:45.880 --> 0:29:49.520
<v Speaker 1>stable areas of the market like healthcare. So plenty of

0:29:49.520 --> 0:29:53.240
<v Speaker 1>opportunities for investors. What what are the stories that are

0:29:53.280 --> 0:29:55.840
<v Speaker 1>that are playing out in some of these what you

0:29:55.920 --> 0:30:01.200
<v Speaker 1>call MS price or underappreciated opportunities UM Starting with health care. Yeah,

0:30:01.200 --> 0:30:04.760
<v Speaker 1>well healthcare. I know I've talked to Caroll many times

0:30:04.760 --> 0:30:07.080
<v Speaker 1>before about healthcare, timb. This is my first time talking

0:30:07.120 --> 0:30:10.160
<v Speaker 1>to you about healthcare. But health care has been underappreciated

0:30:10.160 --> 0:30:12.520
<v Speaker 1>by investors for a very long time. And I know

0:30:12.600 --> 0:30:14.960
<v Speaker 1>this is our twelfth day of the year, but it's

0:30:15.000 --> 0:30:18.040
<v Speaker 1>finally working. This is a perfect area of the market

0:30:18.120 --> 0:30:20.960
<v Speaker 1>where I think it's a hybrid. It offers investors both

0:30:21.200 --> 0:30:25.240
<v Speaker 1>the earnings growth opportunity. The sector is expected to generate

0:30:25.280 --> 0:30:28.560
<v Speaker 1>about ten percent earnings growth next year, but it's trading

0:30:28.640 --> 0:30:32.720
<v Speaker 1>at over twenty discount on a multiple basis relative to

0:30:32.760 --> 0:30:36.200
<v Speaker 1>the SMP five hundred, So you're basically, um, you know,

0:30:36.240 --> 0:30:39.840
<v Speaker 1>allowing investors to participate in this growth at a significant

0:30:39.840 --> 0:30:42.400
<v Speaker 1>discount to the market. And this is one of the

0:30:42.520 --> 0:30:46.320
<v Speaker 1>few sectors of the market that are that is very idiosyncratic.

0:30:46.520 --> 0:30:49.480
<v Speaker 1>And what I mean by that is you have defensive

0:30:49.920 --> 0:30:52.520
<v Speaker 1>areas of the market like pharmaceuticals, but you also have

0:30:52.600 --> 0:30:55.840
<v Speaker 1>high growth areas in the market like life science tools.

0:30:55.880 --> 0:30:57.880
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's you know, I have to say, it's

0:30:57.880 --> 0:30:59.920
<v Speaker 1>pretty remarkable. I was just doing a quick kind of

0:31:00.000 --> 0:31:02.880
<v Speaker 1>of playing around the bloomberg and bringing up the spire

0:31:03.040 --> 0:31:05.760
<v Speaker 1>healthcare sector. It's one of the majordustry groups in the SNP,

0:31:06.360 --> 0:31:08.480
<v Speaker 1>and you're right, like, I mean, we've seen some gains

0:31:08.560 --> 0:31:14.800
<v Speaker 1>last year, but it was it was uh eighteen, it

0:31:14.840 --> 0:31:17.000
<v Speaker 1>was up maybe about four and a half. It's just amazing.

0:31:17.080 --> 0:31:20.440
<v Speaker 1>It's despite we know that everybody's going to need more

0:31:20.480 --> 0:31:23.840
<v Speaker 1>and more healthcare going forward. It's it's pretty anemic to

0:31:23.920 --> 0:31:27.360
<v Speaker 1>some extent in comparison in terms of the returns. Jana,

0:31:28.040 --> 0:31:31.000
<v Speaker 1>You're absolutely right. I think a lot of this blame

0:31:31.160 --> 0:31:35.040
<v Speaker 1>is really carried by the political um backdrop that Unfortunately,

0:31:35.040 --> 0:31:38.720
<v Speaker 1>meeting of the companies were hit with and unfortunately regulatory

0:31:38.760 --> 0:31:42.800
<v Speaker 1>of political uncertainty doesn't usually bode well for multiples. But

0:31:42.880 --> 0:31:45.840
<v Speaker 1>I think we're at this inflection point where UM. I

0:31:45.880 --> 0:31:50.200
<v Speaker 1>think the silver lining behind COVID is, look what the

0:31:50.320 --> 0:31:53.800
<v Speaker 1>human ingenuity and the innovation has enabled us to do,

0:31:53.920 --> 0:31:57.400
<v Speaker 1>which is to provide folks with a vaccine in less

0:31:57.400 --> 0:31:59.720
<v Speaker 1>than a year. Right, So the picks and shovels of

0:31:59.760 --> 0:32:02.720
<v Speaker 1>that business a legit, and now you have increased funding,

0:32:03.080 --> 0:32:05.240
<v Speaker 1>you have tech advancement that I really think it is

0:32:05.320 --> 0:32:10.640
<v Speaker 1>revolutionizing those drug development and delivery of a much needed therapies,

0:32:10.680 --> 0:32:13.800
<v Speaker 1>not just in fighting the virus, but other chronic diseases

0:32:13.840 --> 0:32:16.800
<v Speaker 1>like cancer and others. So I really think this is

0:32:17.080 --> 0:32:20.520
<v Speaker 1>one area of the market where investors will be well

0:32:20.520 --> 0:32:23.840
<v Speaker 1>served because there's so many unique stories that are still

0:32:23.880 --> 0:32:26.680
<v Speaker 1>trading at such a discount to the market. What about

0:32:26.720 --> 0:32:29.080
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to technology, because what's been getting a

0:32:29.080 --> 0:32:31.040
<v Speaker 1>lot of attention, of course over the last year has

0:32:31.080 --> 0:32:33.360
<v Speaker 1>been what we you know, what is referred to as

0:32:33.400 --> 0:32:35.480
<v Speaker 1>big tech, both in a good way and also in

0:32:35.480 --> 0:32:39.280
<v Speaker 1>a pejorative way. To I think UM, software services, security,

0:32:39.960 --> 0:32:42.760
<v Speaker 1>What are the companies that are the themes that that

0:32:42.880 --> 0:32:48.080
<v Speaker 1>you're seeing or looking for. Great point. Last year, again,

0:32:48.160 --> 0:32:51.000
<v Speaker 1>information technology was the best performing sector of the market.

0:32:51.000 --> 0:32:55.880
<v Speaker 1>At when most folks don't appreciate is only a third

0:32:55.920 --> 0:32:59.720
<v Speaker 1>of the sector outperformed the overall sector, meaning only a

0:33:00.000 --> 0:33:02.560
<v Speaker 1>heard of companies. So you've got hundreds of companies and

0:33:02.600 --> 0:33:05.800
<v Speaker 1>only a third were able to match a dissector returns.

0:33:05.840 --> 0:33:09.480
<v Speaker 1>Why because many of the sort of accelerants were driven

0:33:09.520 --> 0:33:12.200
<v Speaker 1>by the fangs or the big cap guys. Right, And

0:33:12.240 --> 0:33:15.480
<v Speaker 1>what I'd like to highlight is a big long term

0:33:15.480 --> 0:33:18.200
<v Speaker 1>secure themes are with us. It's expected that we're going

0:33:18.240 --> 0:33:21.800
<v Speaker 1>to spend somewhere close to three point eight trillion on

0:33:21.920 --> 0:33:24.920
<v Speaker 1>I T services this year just I T in general,

0:33:25.000 --> 0:33:28.400
<v Speaker 1>and less than ten percent is still being spent cloud

0:33:28.520 --> 0:33:30.920
<v Speaker 1>and security and guess what, we're going to need a

0:33:30.960 --> 0:33:34.000
<v Speaker 1>lot more of it. So that's you. Jail wind is

0:33:34.040 --> 0:33:37.320
<v Speaker 1>with us and those companies will benefit well. Yanna, Good

0:33:37.320 --> 0:33:40.200
<v Speaker 1>to check in with you in this new year. Yanna Barton,

0:33:40.280 --> 0:33:42.600
<v Speaker 1>she's co director of Growth Equity Already Advance on the

0:33:42.640 --> 0:33:45.360
<v Speaker 1>phone from Boston. Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg

0:33:45.400 --> 0:33:48.760
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud or at

0:33:48.760 --> 0:33:50.880
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot com and be sure to check out our

0:33:50.960 --> 0:33:53.840
<v Speaker 1>daily radio show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio.

0:33:54.080 --> 0:33:56.200
<v Speaker 1>And be sure to watch us too on YouTube by

0:33:56.240 --> 0:33:57.920
<v Speaker 1>searching Bloomberg Global News