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Speaker 2: This Indeed, we can work it out, and it feels
Speaker 2: like the economy, or maybe the Fed monetary policy kind
Speaker 2: of working its way out on the US economy because
Speaker 2: we definitely, as we just talked about with Katie and Romaine,
Speaker 2: definitely seeing things maybe slowing down.
Speaker 3: Right, Tim, let's talk about what we saw this morning.
Speaker 3: Non farm payrolls. You know, the numbers by now increasing
Speaker 3: two one hundred and fifty thousand last month. It was
Speaker 3: less than expected. And then you got the revision for
Speaker 3: last month, Carol, which is an important one, revised down
Speaker 3: to two hundred and ninety seven thousand. The unemploymentry climate
Speaker 3: of three point nine percent, monthly wage growth slowing. If
Speaker 3: you're Jay Powell, if you're the Federal Reserve saying everything
Speaker 3: is kind of moving in the direction that I wanted to.
Speaker 4: It's hi fi buying everybody on the FFC.
Speaker 3: It's kind of weird because the unemployment rate is going
Speaker 3: up in fewer people, great jobs run expected, So we.
Speaker 2: Talk about bad news good news for the markets. So
Speaker 2: let's get to it, because it does look like a
Speaker 2: cooling of the US labor market. However, it is a
Speaker 2: month's report our Steve Matthew writing about it, and he says,
Speaker 2: though what looks like a cooling US job market gives
Speaker 2: a Fed a little bit of room to keep interest
Speaker 2: rates maybe on hold in December, which would be the
Speaker 2: last meeting of the year, and reinforcing market views at
Speaker 2: the UESS Central Bank is done with the most aggressive
Speaker 2: hiking campaign in for decades.
Speaker 4: It's been quite a ride in the last year. Steve
Speaker 4: is with US now.
Speaker 2: He is Bloomberg News Economics reporter. He's on Zoom out
Speaker 2: there in our Atlanta bureau where Mike is Mike mcke's
Speaker 2: getting ready to talk to the Atlanta Fed President. Also
Speaker 2: with US as our former colleague who is now the
Speaker 2: senior US economist at BNP Parry Bap Yolena Schaletieva.
Speaker 4: She's on Zoom in New York City.
Speaker 2: But I kind of want to start with you Today's
Speaker 2: US jobs and Services data is that it can we
Speaker 2: say the FED.
Speaker 4: Done raising rates?
Speaker 5: I think so this is the kind of the data
Speaker 5: that will make a FED comfortable to be patient at
Speaker 5: the upcoming meeting and beyond. At the same time, it's
Speaker 5: not falling off a cliff, so that should provide them
Speaker 5: some comfort to stay on hold for quite some time
Speaker 5: and wait until inflation slows down. So I think that
Speaker 5: is kind of a Goldilock scenario for the FED. You know,
Speaker 5: in their expectations for a soft blending sterio, this is
Speaker 5: the type of the report that they would like.
Speaker 2: So done done in the next move is going to
Speaker 2: be a cut in your view? Or is it done done?
Speaker 2: And will wait a little bit and just see or
Speaker 2: you think done done?
Speaker 5: I think I think that you know, at the US conference,
Speaker 5: I think Powell was trying to persuade the markets that
Speaker 5: they had done without saying it, of course, and keeping
Speaker 5: the tightening bias in place, But if you read between
Speaker 5: the lines, that's what he was trying to say.
Speaker 3: I think Steve Matthews, come on in here, do you
Speaker 3: agree with you, Elena that this is the kind of
Speaker 3: data that will make the FED comfortable keeping rates steady
Speaker 3: for quite a while and it could be the last
Speaker 3: rate hike at least in this cycle.
Speaker 6: I absolutely agree. I mean, this is if the FED
Speaker 6: was making up numbers and trying to figure out what
Speaker 6: would be good numbers for the kind of outcome that
Speaker 6: they're looking for, they would come to exactly this kind
Speaker 6: of thing. I mean, they want to see unemployment, the
Speaker 6: unemployment rate just very slightly gradually up. They believe four
Speaker 6: percent unemployment is full employment. So and they believe that
Speaker 6: the labor market has been overheating, and they want to
Speaker 6: see a slight cooling off but nothing dramatic. And this
Speaker 6: is a slight cooling off but not traumat and you're
Speaker 6: seeing wage skeins that are coming down a little bit,
Speaker 6: so the pressure is coming off the labor market. Powell
Speaker 6: said on Wednesday, wanted to see rebalancing. You know, there's
Speaker 6: a lot of evidence in here that you're seeing that rebalancing.
Speaker 6: So you know, we're having Rafael Bostick into our office
Speaker 6: in a few minutes, and you know, in some ways
Speaker 6: he could be doing a victory dance today because it's
Speaker 6: like he's been saying since the first half of the year, stop,
Speaker 6: you know, we've done enough, uh, and let's go on
Speaker 6: an extended pause. And and we you know, the the
Speaker 6: the monetary policy works with a lag, and that seems
Speaker 6: to be you know, the outcome that we're seeing. So
Speaker 6: while other FED officials are very likely to say, you know,
Speaker 6: don't rule out additional cuts, we still have the possibility
Speaker 6: that we're going to go higher. It certainly seems like,
Speaker 6: you know, absent there being some really bad surprise inflation,
Speaker 6: that they're likely done.
Speaker 4: When you said don't rule out, you meant further increases, right.
Speaker 1: Not cut exactly exactly.
Speaker 6: They're not. They're not looking at Coutson. In fact, you know,
Speaker 6: I think you know until you get into the middle
Speaker 6: of part of next year that they are pretty committed
Speaker 6: to staying on hold and not moving lower until you
Speaker 6: get to inflation either at two percent or very close
Speaker 6: moving in that direction.
Speaker 2: Right, We did see FED SWAP's price the first rate
Speaker 2: cut by June meeting versus July prior, so a little
Speaker 2: bit of a move up in terms of.
Speaker 4: How traders are seeing it.
Speaker 2: So, Elena, are you guys starting to put out research
Speaker 2: that says, Okay, we're gonna get a recut come June
Speaker 2: or you're gonna wait on that one.
Speaker 5: Well, we we do have that in our baseline projection,
Speaker 5: so we have the first rate cut in June and
Speaker 5: then a one percentage point of cuts in the remainder
Speaker 5: of next year. I just wanted to add a little
Speaker 5: bit to what Steve was saying in terms of Chair
Speaker 5: Powell mentioning the supply side story and how the labor
Speaker 5: market is coming back into balance. I think while this
Speaker 5: report was a No K report for the FAT, it
Speaker 5: does throw some cold water on that argument about the
Speaker 5: supply side of the economy coming back. It does show
Speaker 5: some vulnerabilities on the demand side. You see a significant
Speaker 5: slowing in retail transportation and this is going into the
Speaker 5: holiday season, so things are slowing. Hiring is slowing in
Speaker 5: this important part of the economy. Leisure hospitality spike during
Speaker 5: the summer months was indeed temporary, and that is slowing down.
Speaker 5: We see diffusion index declining to cyclical law. That tells
Speaker 5: you that the breath of job hiring is also shrinking.
Speaker 5: So I would be cautious. This kind of number is
Speaker 5: a good number, but that shows some vulnerabilities in the
Speaker 5: economy going into the ur end.
Speaker 3: Okay, so it's kind of Carol's in contrast, where We
Speaker 3: heard from Chrissy Taylor over at Enterprise last week in
Speaker 3: terms of right, she was pretty up not just on
Speaker 3: the consumer, but also on the signs that she's getting
Speaker 3: from enterprises, trucking, leasing, business in the truck the you know,
Speaker 3: the tracking that they do, which is kind of puliar.
Speaker 3: It was kind of peculiar. Steve Matthews coming back in
Speaker 3: here and give us an idea of what could actually
Speaker 3: prompt the FED to cut rates next year, Like, what
Speaker 3: are the economic signals that you're looking for for a
Speaker 3: rate hike in the middle of the year.
Speaker 6: I think there's a rate cut. Excuse me, yeah, exactly.
Speaker 6: I think there's a view at the FED that you know,
Speaker 6: as inflation comes down, real interest rates wide. I mean essentially,
Speaker 6: you know, if inflation moves down to two percent and
Speaker 6: you have the FED fun trade at five and a
Speaker 6: half percent, that's three and a half percent gap. And
Speaker 6: so as as inflation comes down, you're seeing monetary policy tight.
Speaker 6: So really, I think the figures that are most important
Speaker 6: in terms of when they're going to cut is when
Speaker 6: inflation comes down, because they didn't they at some point
Speaker 6: they're not going to want to see additional monetary policy
Speaker 6: tightening and they view, you know, real rights as an
Speaker 6: important signal.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm curious about, you know, just watching some
Speaker 2: of those sentiment numbers that we will get next week too,
Speaker 2: because you know how people feel about their situation, and
Speaker 2: we've been certainly doing surveys here at Bloomberg of individuals.
Speaker 2: What they're concerned about is, yeah, they might be working,
Speaker 2: but they're paying a heck of a lot for everything,
Speaker 2: or they're paying more for their car, you know, loan
Speaker 2: or lease if you will, loan, I guess in particular,
Speaker 2: or they're paying more on their mortgage, or they can't
Speaker 2: even get into a mortgage. All right, So, Yolena, what
Speaker 2: is the number one thing on your radar?
Speaker 4: Let's say, for the next week or so.
Speaker 5: We'll be watching the Senior Loan Office survey coming out
Speaker 5: on Monday. The FED had the data at their meeting
Speaker 5: this week. And things are not easy. So, you know,
Speaker 5: lending conditions are tightening, and all of the things that
Speaker 5: you mentioned, Carol, you know, consumers looking at car loans,
Speaker 5: buying a car at a higher interest rate. Those things
Speaker 5: will be reflected in that survey, and you know, further
Speaker 5: deterioration in lending standards I think is relevant to what
Speaker 5: the FED is going to do next.
Speaker 2: Same question to you, Steve, what's you got? You know,
Speaker 2: Raphael Bostak coming up. I don't know if that's top
Speaker 2: of mind right now in terms of what, but tell
Speaker 2: me what's kind of top of mind for you.
Speaker 6: Bostic is definitely top of mind for me, since he's
Speaker 6: now in the office, and.
Speaker 2: What would you ask him just thirty seconds?
Speaker 4: What would you what would be.
Speaker 6: Well, the same question you would ask, which is you know,
Speaker 6: what's going to cause cuts? Now that it seems like
Speaker 6: that we may have have peaked. But I think besides
Speaker 6: the SLEW survey, which I agree entirely is going to
Speaker 6: be interesting on Monday, Uh, there's a ton of Fed
Speaker 6: speak and it's like how they interpret the data, how
Speaker 6: they interpret what's happening with the financial markets. And you know,
Speaker 6: there was financial market tightening in advance of the meeting.
Speaker 6: Now we are seeing some loosening. I mean the yields
Speaker 6: are down, and it's like, you know, how do they
Speaker 6: view that. You have Chris Waller, you have some others
Speaker 6: who are speaking Bostic and Barking next week, so there'll
Speaker 6: be plenty to listen to you yeah, we'll.
Speaker 4: See there's one narrative or multiple.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg News economics reporter of course joining us there in Atlanta,
Speaker 2: and then you'll landish a Lakeva.
Speaker 4: Thank you so much.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 3: As we promised, we have got a few perspectives on
Speaker 3: the US labor market. We heard from Steve Matthews at
Speaker 3: Bloomberg News and Juliam Sheil Yateevo. Yeah, here's another perspective.
Speaker 3: We got Julia Pollock, chief economist at zip Recruiter, joining
Speaker 3: us from Los Angeles. Just a quick recap for those
Speaker 3: who haven't been following all day. The data series showed
Speaker 3: job growth slowing by more than expected, Carol, and the
Speaker 3: unemployment rising to an almost two year high three point
Speaker 3: nine percent. Monthly wage growth slowed two bad news, good.
Speaker 4: News, Yeah exactly.
Speaker 2: And I know you and I both have gotten a
Speaker 2: peek at Julia's research over at ZipRecruiter, and I feel
Speaker 2: like it's going to mesh with some of what we
Speaker 2: got from the government this morning. Julia, good to have
Speaker 2: you back with us on business week. Are you seeing
Speaker 2: signs at the job market here in the United States
Speaker 2: is cooling?
Speaker 7: We are seeing lots of science and all the key
Speaker 7: indicators in this job's report point in that direction. The
Speaker 7: decline in working hours, the slow down and wage growth,
Speaker 7: the uptick in the unemployment rate, particularly for younger workers.
Speaker 7: These all suggest that demand for labor is slackening. I
Speaker 7: mean that household survey was very weak this month. That said,
Speaker 7: you know, the weakness in payrolls may be overstated. We
Speaker 7: have to keep in mind that the UAW strike was
Speaker 7: in full swing during the reference week of the survey,
Speaker 7: and that's since been resolved, were partly resolved, And actually
Speaker 7: there were strikes across the economy and in all kinds
Speaker 7: of industries, with ninety six thousand people absent from work
Speaker 7: due to to strikes, the highest number since nineteen ninety seven.
Speaker 7: So if you add all those workers back in and
Speaker 7: then maybe take away about forty thousand for the average
Speaker 7: revision that we've seen so far this year, with eight
Speaker 7: out of nine reports being revised downwards, you know that
Speaker 7: brings you to a number that is around two hundred
Speaker 7: and thirty thousand. Still a slowdown, not terrible.
Speaker 3: A slowdown to two hundred and thirty thousand would be
Speaker 3: significantly higher than the one had undred and eighty thousand
Speaker 3: that economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected, and maybe they took
Speaker 3: into the into account the strikes that were happening. Julie,
Speaker 3: I guess are you saying that perhaps? And look, I
Speaker 3: know you're a labor economist, so you're not focused on
Speaker 3: what's going on in the equity and the bond markets
Speaker 3: right now. But would you suggest that the celebrations are
Speaker 3: a little early in terms of a soft landing here?
Speaker 7: No, No, I think I think the bulk of the
Speaker 7: data in both the Establishment survey and the household survey
Speaker 7: came in week So in the establishment survey, you have
Speaker 7: working hours, overtime hours, you have the wage growth numbers.
Speaker 7: Those are all pretty weak. I mean, wage growth over
Speaker 7: the last three months at an annualized rate has been
Speaker 7: just three point two percent. Economists think that three point
Speaker 7: five percent would be consistent with two percent inflation, right,
Speaker 7: because workers should get a two percent boost to make
Speaker 7: them whole for inflation. Plus another one point five percent
Speaker 7: boost a year to account for productivity growth and PRODUCTIVIY
Speaker 7: growth is looking good at the moment. That figure was
Speaker 7: over four percent four point nine percent by the last quarter, So.
Speaker 4: Which might explain what that.
Speaker 2: Maybe we're all working, Maybe I don't know, harder better,
Speaker 2: I don't know, and then maybe there isn't that.
Speaker 4: Need to hire.
Speaker 2: But I wonder what I want to ask you is, Juliet,
Speaker 2: there was such a feeling of labor hoarding. We talked
Speaker 2: about it a lot of coming out of the pandemic.
Speaker 2: People didn't want to let go of workers because it
Speaker 2: was so hard to get a worker.
Speaker 4: Is that kind of going a way?
Speaker 7: No, it doesn't appear to be. And the latest Jolts
Speaker 7: report layoffs was still very low. And what you see
Speaker 7: is that we're kind of in a low turn state
Speaker 7: right now, with employers reluctant to lay workers off, worried
Speaker 7: about how expensive and food will be to replace them,
Speaker 7: but also quits kind of back to normal, and workers
Speaker 7: no longer feeling as confident about quitting their jobs, no
Speaker 7: longer as confident that they'll find better ones. So everyone's
Speaker 7: sort of shelter in place, and as a result, hires
Speaker 7: are low, and the reason that job agains are still
Speaker 7: so positive is more because the rate at which the
Speaker 7: water's going out of the bathtub has slowed, not so
Speaker 7: much that we're bringing in a lot of new people
Speaker 7: into the land market.
Speaker 3: Do you think employers are back in the driver's seat.
Speaker 7: So we just released a report on our new research website,
Speaker 7: zippergruterresearch dot org about what is going on for new
Speaker 7: hires and job switchers, and we found that across pretty
Speaker 7: much every measure of leverage and bargaining power that we track,
Speaker 7: they have lost considerable power in the last month. I
Speaker 7: mean in the last quarter. The share who got a
Speaker 7: signing bonus fell to eighteen percent from twenty eight percent.
Speaker 7: The share who got a raise when they switched jobs
Speaker 7: fell meaningfully. The share who when they quit their job
Speaker 7: got a call from their old employer saying we need
Speaker 7: you to stay. We'll match your outside offer, we'll counter
Speaker 7: that fell meaningfully. Workers are no longer being fought over
Speaker 7: as such a hot commodity.
Speaker 2: Interesting, So is it where we were pre pandemic, right
Speaker 2: before the pandemic or a little bit weaker. I don't
Speaker 2: know what's your read on it. You're talking with companies.
Speaker 2: You guys are working with companies too. How would you
Speaker 2: describe it? Give me a couple of adjectives to describe
Speaker 2: how you think the labor market is right now in
Speaker 2: the United States.
Speaker 8: Sure so.
Speaker 7: My read on it is that things are a little
Speaker 7: bit weaker than they were right before the pandemic. Working
Speaker 7: hours at thirty four point three are at the very
Speaker 7: low end of the range that we typically see in
Speaker 7: good economic times. Wage growth, it is a little tepid,
Speaker 7: given how high inflation is. The real wage growth is
Speaker 7: not so great for workers. There's still lots of opportunities
Speaker 7: out there, but workers are finding it's taking them a
Speaker 7: little bit longer, a couple more applications to get offers,
Speaker 7: and the offers they get are not quite as attractive
Speaker 7: as what they grew used to the last two years.
Speaker 3: What about when it comes to workers saying, you know,
Speaker 3: I don't want to go into the office five days
Speaker 3: a week. I want to work from home a little bit.
Speaker 3: Maybe not coming on Fridays or Mondays. Read the room, baby,
Speaker 3: read the Wednesday Thursday sounds good for sitting in my
Speaker 3: chair all day. What's the read you get on that?
Speaker 7: At ZipRecruiter so about eleven percent of job postings are
Speaker 7: still remote. That's up from about three percent before the pandemic.
Speaker 7: So remote work is here to stay.
Speaker 9: How many look it seems low because sixty percent of
Speaker 9: job seekers would prefer to get a remote job, and
Speaker 9: you really have about sixty percent of all the workers
Speaker 9: competing over about ten eleven percent of the job postings.
Speaker 7: So there is a big mismatch between demand and supply
Speaker 7: of remote work opportunities.
Speaker 8: That's it.
Speaker 7: We did a survey of employers recently and we did
Speaker 7: find that more had pulled back on their remote work
Speaker 7: policies than expanded remote work. But even so, very few
Speaker 7: had gone back to the five day in office work week.
Speaker 7: So the five day in office work week is effectively dead.
Speaker 7: Very few companies are requiring people in the office five
Speaker 7: days a week. Flexibility is the name of the game.
Speaker 2: Well, pretty interesting, no doubt about it. Yeah, it's just
Speaker 2: interesting to see some of the trends that are out
Speaker 2: there because we certainly see more and more people coming back,
Speaker 2: right or.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you that Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays on the
Speaker 3: subway are very crowded. Thursdays and Friday's.
Speaker 1: Not so much.
Speaker 2: I thought about that this morning, coming through World Trade,
Speaker 2: I'm like, Okay, there's no crowd.
Speaker 4: Like I can kind of walk through it.
Speaker 2: Really great stuff and we so appreciate getting time to
Speaker 2: check in with you, Julia Pollock, take care and have
Speaker 2: a great week. And chief economist eferent Zip recruiter on
Speaker 2: zoom in Los Angeles, I have to say, going through
Speaker 2: kind of their surveys and stuff to see things starting
Speaker 2: to tick down in terms of hours worked, wage growth,
Speaker 2: like really kind of meshing so well and so strongly
Speaker 2: with the jobs report this morning.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Well, one of our most read stories on the Bloomberg Today,
Speaker 2: no doubt about it. We got the verdict last night.
Speaker 2: We're talking about the case of Sam Bankmin freed convicted
Speaker 2: of a massive fraud that led to the collapse of
Speaker 2: his FDx exchange. Following a month long trial that pitted
Speaker 2: the testimony of the former crypto king against some of
Speaker 2: his closest friends.
Speaker 3: It was that happened fast, Carol, It did happen fast.
Speaker 3: I mean, think about how long Elizabeth Holmes was sort
Speaker 3: of in limbo before sentencing, and he hasn't been sentenced yet.
Speaker 4: But no, this berdict came down pretty quickly.
Speaker 3: Very quickly. Yeah, BigMan freed. For those kids catching up.
Speaker 3: He was found guilty of seven counts of fre conspiracy
Speaker 3: after Jersey and Manhattan deliberated for fewer than five hours
Speaker 3: on Thursday. He faces as many as twenty years in
Speaker 3: prison on each of the most serious charges. Judge Lewis
Speaker 3: Kaplan set the sentencing date in late March.
Speaker 2: All right, so let's get to our weekly check on
Speaker 2: the crypto market. Thoughts on the trial, the verdict, the
Speaker 2: future legal woes to come, maybe for others in the industry.
Speaker 2: With us, as Bloomberg News legal reporter Ava Benny Morrison,
Speaker 2: she's been following SBF's trial in Lower Manhattan throughout. She
Speaker 2: is on Zoom in New York City, and also with
Speaker 2: US is Stephen mcclerk. He's chief investment officer of the
Speaker 2: financial services firm Valkyrie Investments. Former managing director at Guggenheim Partners,
Speaker 2: where he was focusing on fixed income and private equity.
Speaker 2: Heat is on zoom from Nashville, Tennessee. Hey A, I
Speaker 2: want to start with you.
Speaker 4: What a month. I believe you got married in the
Speaker 4: middle of it too, But is that right?
Speaker 3: Congratulations? Congratulations, not great timing, but what you're covering right now.
Speaker 3: But I think the wedding.
Speaker 2: Is like I'm going down the aisle, going to but anyway,
Speaker 2: so quick, quick verdict.
Speaker 4: It felt like was it night?
Speaker 2: Talk to us about your kind of the process and
Speaker 2: then the verdict coming down so quickly and what ultimately happened.
Speaker 10: Very quick verdict. Actually, after the jury started their deliberation
Speaker 10: just afternoon, at about quarter past three, we were taking
Speaker 10: bets in the press room of when the jury would
Speaker 10: come back, and I actually bet that it was going
Speaker 10: to be last night. So I think someone owes me
Speaker 10: lunch for that. But it was a very quick turnaround.
Speaker 10: They had a couple of notes early in the evening.
Speaker 10: The judge had said that they could stay if they
Speaker 10: wanted to and deliberate until eight pm last night. They
Speaker 10: decided to they were going to have dinner, get a car,
Speaker 10: uber or a lift home, and they submitted a couple
Speaker 10: of questions jury notes, asking for highlighters and post it notes.
Speaker 10: They also asked for transcripts of certain testimony from institutional
Speaker 10: investors at FTX, so we thought maybe they might be
Speaker 10: in for the long haul. But then with about twenty
Speaker 10: minutes to eight pm, the eightpm deadvine, they came back
Speaker 10: with another note saying.
Speaker 8: That they'd reached a verdict.
Speaker 10: It was a little bit frantic in the actual courtroom
Speaker 10: because people weren't really expecting it. At that point, n
Speaker 10: was sort of moving around Josh for a seat, and
Speaker 10: then all the lawyers, the prosecutors, and of course Sam
Speaker 10: himself and his.
Speaker 8: Parents walked in.
Speaker 3: What was Sam's reaction when the judge or the jury,
Speaker 3: I don't know who read this. We don't have cameras
Speaker 3: in there. You were in there. What was his reaction
Speaker 3: when he heard the verdict?
Speaker 10: Sam was very still when he was sitting at the
Speaker 10: bar table between his two lawyers. Usually he's sort of
Speaker 10: bouncing his knee around and you can see him fidgeting
Speaker 10: a little bit, but last night he was dead still,
Speaker 10: almost like a statute. The judge asked him to stand
Speaker 10: and face the jury. The jury four person read out
Speaker 10: the guilty verdicts one by one, saying guilty seven times.
Speaker 10: He kept his eyes down, looking at the floor most
Speaker 10: of the time. His hands were in front of him,
Speaker 10: and he was completely unemotional. He looked almost a little
Speaker 10: bit sorry, almost a little bit shell shot, and before
Speaker 10: sitting down again. His parents, though, were completely strat so
Speaker 10: they were sitting on the bench in front of me
Speaker 10: in the court room comforting.
Speaker 4: On imagine it was quite steven.
Speaker 2: Come on in on the conversation. You know, how do
Speaker 2: you think this trial might potentially impact the crypto market
Speaker 2: and the interest of it as an investment or means
Speaker 2: of transaction. What might be a longer term impact if any.
Speaker 11: Yeah, well, thanks for having me, Carolyn tim. My initial
Speaker 11: reaction was, you know, we're glad that this is finally
Speaker 11: behind us, because the FTX situation and all the other
Speaker 11: related issues has had a really broad negative impact on
Speaker 11: the industry for about the last eighteen months. You know,
Speaker 11: we weren't immune to the damage either, despite not having
Speaker 11: any kind of relationship to those companies. And now that
Speaker 11: we finally have a verdict, I feel like investor confidence
Speaker 11: in the crypto market will start rising. Again, you know,
Speaker 11: we're already seeing confidence coming back to the markets. Usually
Speaker 11: when there's a fraud, it can affect any market segment.
Speaker 11: But when justice is served, which which was served yesterday,
Speaker 11: and we'll finally get the you know, the final verdict later,
Speaker 11: there's usually a relief and a relief rally comes with
Speaker 11: that and a recognition that the next fraud is going
Speaker 11: to be harder to pull off and that criminals will
Speaker 11: get caught.
Speaker 2: Bitcoin's actually down a little bit about eight tens of
Speaker 2: percent today. I mean, I know it's one day, but
Speaker 2: just saying.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Steven, can you talk a little bit about the
Speaker 3: damage that you guys experienced as a result of not
Speaker 3: just this trial, but of the downfall of FTX to
Speaker 3: referred to it, But what specifically did you see at Valkyrie.
Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, over really the last two calendar years.
Speaker 11: And it didn't start with FTX. It started with with
Speaker 11: Celsius and Voyager and a couple of other block fives
Speaker 11: another good example, and then and the pinnacle was really FTX.
Speaker 11: But we really saw less flows coming in, whether it's
Speaker 11: through ETFs or whether it's through hedge funds that you know,
Speaker 11: we manage each so so we really did see flows
Speaker 11: start to dry up, and when the FTX trials started
Speaker 11: coming around earlier this summer, we did begin to see
Speaker 11: flows coming back to the market. So it really was
Speaker 11: a case of investors sentiment saying, you know, I don't
Speaker 11: want to touch that market for a little bit until
Speaker 11: we understand really what's going on. Market's like certainty, and
Speaker 11: I think they wanted to have certainty that it wasn't
Speaker 11: a crypto problem, rather it was a fraud and criminal problem.
Speaker 2: So all right, So Ava, how are you kind of
Speaker 2: thinking about the crypto world from a league prospective loonel
Speaker 2: Laurent Laurent Trel has a Bloomberg opinion Colum out and
Speaker 2: he says SBF will be the last crypto mergal behind bars.
Speaker 2: So there are other cases in litigation out there.
Speaker 3: Yeah, do the Bloomberg quiz this week, Carol. It's a
Speaker 3: nice hint for a.
Speaker 4: Question on there that is very true.
Speaker 2: So are you anticipating that you're going to get ready
Speaker 2: for some other cases to be following.
Speaker 10: Yes, definitely. In Federal court in Manhattan, the prosecution, the
Speaker 10: prosecution office down here has made a big point of saying,
Speaker 10: you know, just because this was crypto and it was
Speaker 10: a new technology and new market. The fraud is the same.
Speaker 10: It doesn't matter what the vehicle is that's being used
Speaker 10: to perpetuate this fraud. So FTX was one of many
Speaker 10: crypto companies that the Prosecution Office went after. We're also
Speaker 10: waiting to see what happens with Alex Nshinski, who was
Speaker 10: the founder of Celsius, Do Kwan, who was the founder
Speaker 10: of terror Form Labs, So it'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 10: I guess if you can take any lessons from what
Speaker 10: happened with FTX. Obviously, there was a lot of evidence
Speaker 10: in this case, and the prosecution was really blessed with
Speaker 10: having three insiders from sec freeds in a circle turning
Speaker 10: around and agreeing to be corporated.
Speaker 8: Witnesses for them.
Speaker 3: So what happens to them Eva, They will be sentenced.
Speaker 10: They've sort of done their bit for the government and
Speaker 10: the judge will weigh up just how valuable they were
Speaker 10: and then determine what their punishment would be. Gary, what
Speaker 10: those executives, just to refresh your brand's memories were, Gary Wong,
Speaker 10: the co founder of FTX, Caroline Ellison, who is the
Speaker 10: CEO of allowing me to research and Nashad Singh who
Speaker 10: was the engineering chief at ftxy'. They all had corporation
Speaker 10: agreements with government and gave evidence and they were saying,
Speaker 10: we're hoping we don't get jail time from this, so
Speaker 10: we'll have to wait and see.
Speaker 2: Steven got about a minute left here. What would you
Speaker 2: like to see in terms of GOV oversight or rules
Speaker 2: or a greater transparency in a crypto world?
Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, I don't think it's necessarily an issue
Speaker 11: with with crypto and I also don't know if there's necessarily,
Speaker 11: you know, investor protections, additional investor protections that need to
Speaker 11: take place here. The bottom line is, sophisticated investors were
Speaker 11: fooled here. We just happen to be fortunate enough to
Speaker 11: have a really stubborn and risk focused team when we
Speaker 11: were engaging with with counterparties like Celsius and FTX and
Speaker 11: decided not to engage with them because they didn't fulfill
Speaker 11: our process of due diligence. And I think what happened is,
Speaker 11: you know, anytime that there's a new market and there's
Speaker 11: height around that market and people making money, it does
Speaker 11: create a bit of fomo and people forget their process.
Speaker 11: People forget their their their their past learnings, whether it
Speaker 11: was learnings from Ron or learnings from made Off. I
Speaker 11: mean I was. I was a credit analyst looking at
Speaker 11: Greece when and the Greek Death Crisis came about and
Speaker 11: avoided it. So we avoided these issues. And I think
Speaker 11: people just have to remember that you follow a process,
Speaker 11: you're due diligence, and you make sure that you mitigate risk.
Speaker 4: Stephen mcclug, thank you so much.
Speaker 2: Over at Valkyrie, of course our own Ava Benny Morrison
Speaker 2: covering the trial for us.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekday afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app, and YouTube. You can also listen
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Speaker 1: Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3: Well, the numbers, Carol, are not pretty. Less than a
Speaker 3: quarter of two ninety two point four million tons of
Speaker 3: municipal solid waste read trash that was generated back in
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen was recycled. That's according to the latest figures
Speaker 3: from the US EPA. Actually, it's kind of more than
Speaker 3: I thought it would be Yeah, so that's you know.
Speaker 4: Yeah, twenty five percent.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it would be less to be less, but there's
Speaker 3: a long way to go.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and our next guest actually thinks we can do
Speaker 2: a lot better. Keith Harrison is the founder and CEO
Speaker 2: of The Recycling Partnership. It's an industry funded nonprofit that
Speaker 2: advocates for improving recycling infrastructure and accessibility. The Recycling Partnership
Speaker 2: says it over the last eight years, it's diverted seven
Speaker 2: hundred and seventy million pounds of new recyclables from landfills,
Speaker 2: which has avoided more than six hundred and seventy thousand
Speaker 2: metric tons of greenhouse gases. And Keith joins us on
Speaker 2: Zoom from Washington, DC.
Speaker 3: That's legit. That's a lot of a lot of greenhouse
Speaker 3: gases that have been avoided. Keith, thanks so much for
Speaker 3: joining us. Excited to have you with us this afternoon.
Speaker 3: I love talking about recycling because I think that there
Speaker 3: are so many composting Now I'm composting, got the garbage
Speaker 3: disposal to separating. You know, here in New York, we
Speaker 3: had to separate everything into you know, it's not single stream,
Speaker 3: but one thing that Carol and I were surprised to
Speaker 3: learn recently is specifically about plastics and to what extent
Speaker 3: plastics are not actually recyclable in this day and age.
Speaker 3: So I want to start there and then we'll get
Speaker 3: to what's going on with America Recycles Day a little
Speaker 3: later in the month.
Speaker 8: Sounds good, sounds good. Thanks for having me in today.
Speaker 8: Glad to talk about this. If you want to go
Speaker 8: out to dinner afterwards. Composting also a favorite topic.
Speaker 3: Okay, that's awesome. Well, we got plenty of time, so
Speaker 3: talk to us about talk to us about what's going
Speaker 3: on with plastics right now, because a lot of people
Speaker 3: have this misconception that if they recycle it, then it
Speaker 3: just gets reused and made into something else, which is beautiful.
Speaker 2: And if we see that thing on the bottom that
Speaker 2: like circular, we think, okay, cares about the number in
Speaker 2: there exactly?
Speaker 8: Well, yeah, you know what. There's been a lot of
Speaker 8: recycling has been in the news a lot lately, and
Speaker 8: some of the stories are really depressing. And I want
Speaker 8: to start with the story of hope that it's not
Speaker 8: working exactly as we needed to, but we can fix
Speaker 8: this sucker, and then that then we'll have something else
Speaker 8: to talk about on the other side. So when we
Speaker 8: look at what's really happening with recycling today, we see
Speaker 8: a huge opportunity for improve We see that seven out
Speaker 8: of ten cardboard boxes and up in the trash. That's
Speaker 8: very similar to seven out of ten PT bottles and
Speaker 8: glass bottles also end up in the trash. Is that fixable?
Speaker 4: Yes?
Speaker 8: What happens when we do even more carbon savings as
Speaker 8: you outlined. So the story on plastics, though, gets a
Speaker 8: little bit trickier because there are so many types of
Speaker 8: plastics one word, many different things. So you really have
Speaker 8: to understand the strata of opportunity so you can go
Speaker 8: after the easier to fix ones like yogurt cups and
Speaker 8: PT bottles, and then build a longer timeline for the
Speaker 8: stuff that's trickier, like plastic wrap, stuff like that.
Speaker 2: Well, you know, we talk a lot about trash here, you.
Speaker 3: Know, Carol talks a lot of trash. That's what happens.
Speaker 2: I do that too, Sorry, guilty as charged, No, but
Speaker 2: I do wonder about you know, the impact of landfills
Speaker 2: and garbage in a year where climate change felt like
Speaker 2: it was, you know, thrust in front of our face.
Speaker 2: If you didn't believe it, Like you couldn't. You couldn't
Speaker 2: ignore some of the stuff that was going on, whether
Speaker 2: it was temperatures or fires or.
Speaker 4: What have you.
Speaker 2: Or you know, the skies over New York and the
Speaker 2: New York Metro turning orange. So landfills just remind everybody
Speaker 2: about the impact that they have on the environment.
Speaker 8: Yes, landfills are purposely made to keep out air and
Speaker 8: sun and rain. We purposely cap them, We encapsulate them
Speaker 8: actually in plastic, to keep things from breaking down because
Speaker 8: when they break down without air, light and rain, it
Speaker 8: creates methane. That anaerobic state inside of a landfill creates methane. However, well,
Speaker 8: although the intent is to prevent things from breaking down,
Speaker 8: they still do. And in fact, landfills are one of
Speaker 8: the biggest emitters of landfill of methane, which is one
Speaker 8: of our strongest and most potent greenhouse gases.
Speaker 3: So we should all be composting, is what you're.
Speaker 8: Saying back to the compost right, Yeah, Actually, food waste
Speaker 8: is The EPA just released a really good report about
Speaker 8: the role of food waste and organics. So banana peels
Speaker 8: and your yard trimming. Trimming is what happens when those
Speaker 8: in land and in landfill. But it's also you know,
Speaker 8: things have naturally break down, like fiber, paper products and
Speaker 8: things like that, so we have to be really careful
Speaker 8: before we casually toss something into a landfill because it
Speaker 8: is directly connected to the climate.
Speaker 3: Well, I think people know this, this is the problem.
Speaker 2: This is I was gonna say to you, like, if
Speaker 2: you go can California, don't you have like multiple cans
Speaker 2: like you have to do?
Speaker 3: Yeah, And it's pretty amazing. I Mean every time I
Speaker 3: go back to see my parents in California, the can
Speaker 3: situation changes. And what's happened is the recycling can has
Speaker 3: gotten huge, the compost bin has gotten huge, the trash
Speaker 3: can has gotten tiny.
Speaker 4: I love that.
Speaker 11: There's so the that is the future.
Speaker 8: That's incredible, right, And so what we're trying to work
Speaker 8: towards is instead of it just being like that in
Speaker 8: California or in New York City having really strong recycling programs,
Speaker 8: but it's a different way, we're trying to build harmonization.
Speaker 8: And so I get really interested in the role of
Speaker 8: policy to make it consistent from one place to another,
Speaker 8: but to also level up that caliber of service. So
Speaker 8: that you can make sure you're composting, you can make
Speaker 8: sure that you're recycling as many different things as possible.
Speaker 8: We want old stuff to turn into new stuff so
Speaker 8: that it never hits that landfill. And the role of
Speaker 8: policy is a new tool that we're seeing on the
Speaker 8: US landscape to create a consistency. And I think that's
Speaker 8: where we're really going to see the most system change happen.
Speaker 2: Well, and I do wonder too, what would be you know,
Speaker 2: one thing that we could all do better? Because in
Speaker 2: New Jersey it's like paper, plastic and glass and garbage.
Speaker 4: So I just what can we all that hurts?
Speaker 2: That hurts?
Speaker 4: What can we all do to make it better?
Speaker 8: Well, I think if you're trying to if you're traveling,
Speaker 8: especially as we come into the holidays and you're going
Speaker 8: from one place to another, check out recycle check dot org.
Speaker 8: This is a brand new tool we just launched, and
Speaker 8: it gets past this idea of can I recycle this
Speaker 8: where I am? It connects to the nine thousand different
Speaker 8: recycling programs that are in this country and allows you
Speaker 8: to very easily understand can I recycle this where I am? Now,
Speaker 8: this is a super duper tool the public can use it.
Speaker 8: We're partnering with other tools and platforms so that people
Speaker 8: don't have to come for us for the data, but
Speaker 8: wherever they go to get their data, they can find
Speaker 8: that they're recycling information. It connects, We use AI technology.
Speaker 8: We are constantly updating it across the whole country, and
Speaker 8: I think this is really really cool. So you know
Speaker 8: your listeners who are thinking about this as they might
Speaker 8: be commuting home right now putting your home hat on.
Speaker 8: It's helpful as you're traveling to visit family to know
Speaker 8: what's recyclable. But if you also run a bus that
Speaker 8: packages anything that might be waste or trash, this is
Speaker 8: a really cool tool for you too, because if you're
Speaker 8: doing work to green your product, it allows you to
Speaker 8: have consistent communication so that you know when you're there
Speaker 8: visiting your folks in California.
Speaker 12: And thanks to think.
Speaker 4: About going into the weekend.
Speaker 2: Keith Harrison, thank you so much of the recycling partnership.
Speaker 4: She is CEO and founder. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Quick Takes. Tim Stenovik on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 8: Sub London Front.
Speaker 2: All right, everybody, the new issue Bloomberg Business Week. It
Speaker 2: is out on newsstands online at Bloomberg dot com, slash
Speaker 2: business Week on the Bloomberg In it a focus on
Speaker 2: this upcoming week's Bloomberg New Economy form November eighth through
Speaker 2: tenth in Singapore, annual gathering of world leaders to address
Speaker 2: the most pressing issues facing the global economy and so
Speaker 2: tim In the magazine, there are several stories getting into
Speaker 2: those issues.
Speaker 3: Including from Wall Street to the World Bank, the one risk,
Speaker 3: the towers above all, and then a story about the
Speaker 3: company most known for making Apple's iPhones and the pivot
Speaker 3: that it wants to make here in the US. So
Speaker 3: let's get into it. We got the editor of the
Speaker 3: special New Economy coverage, Bloomberg Business Week, Global Economics Editor,
Speaker 3: Christina Lynn Bladd, joins us on zoom in New York City.
Speaker 3: Also with us is the editor of Bloomberg Business Week,
Speaker 3: Joel Weber in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker's Studio. Okay, so, Joel,
Speaker 3: I want to start with you and just talk about
Speaker 3: how you think about this issue in the context of
Speaker 3: the live event that's happening next week.
Speaker 12: So we think about it in themes and there are
Speaker 12: themes that I think are present in the issue that
Speaker 12: will also be foundational parts of the conversations that happen
Speaker 12: in Singapore where the New Economy Form will be taking place.
Speaker 12: I don't get to be there for the record. I
Speaker 12: get to be here too. I get to represent with
Speaker 12: these stories.
Speaker 3: You don't have to fly so far.
Speaker 5: You know.
Speaker 12: It was funny like they did email a colleague and
Speaker 12: the colleague was like, yeah, I'm still in the flight,
Speaker 12: and I was like, wait a second. He left. He
Speaker 12: left yesterday, So I think, look like talking about this
Speaker 12: right now, with what's happening in the world, that word
Speaker 12: risk comes up. We use it on the international cover
Speaker 12: for the package. The thing that Eric Shatsker, who is
Speaker 12: one of the colleagues who's there, identified with this is
Speaker 12: when you talk to a CEO right now, or listen
Speaker 12: to transcripts from Earning, you know, all these Earning calls
Speaker 12: or some of the people who have spoken up in
Speaker 12: the last few weeks and months, geopolitics is the number
Speaker 12: one concern right now, and it is this massive risk
Speaker 12: that CEOs feel like they don't really have control, any
Speaker 12: control over. It just sort of happens, and you're a
Speaker 12: victim of it and according to Eric's reporting, like that
Speaker 12: term politics has suddenly surged and become the risk that
Speaker 12: business leaders around the world are most concerned about. And
Speaker 12: no doubt that will be one of the biggest themes
Speaker 12: that come out of these conversations.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you guys.
Speaker 2: Eric mentions in his remarks and comments the world Fool CEO,
Speaker 2: who we talked about talk with too, and the concerns there.
Speaker 2: What's interesting is that in Eric in his article as column,
Speaker 2: he says, what makes you a political risk so vexing
Speaker 2: is that it defies modeling, right, so many different things
Speaker 2: financially we can model out this weekend, Christina, you oversaw
Speaker 2: this coverage is incredible.
Speaker 4: The stories come on in on the.
Speaker 2: Conversation, especially in terms of what Eric wrote in some
Speaker 2: of the other coverage.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think it's true. It is difficult to model.
Speaker 13: I mean everyone has been surprised think in the last
Speaker 13: couple of years by these these you know, these cold
Speaker 13: conflicts that have heated up again. That's been one thing
Speaker 13: that we've been seeing. But also new kinds of of
Speaker 13: of ruptures, you know, is supply chains being reshuffled by
Speaker 13: the US China, you know tensions, and that's one thing
Speaker 13: that we tried to capture. For example, we tried to
Speaker 13: find countries that were sort of defined this kind of
Speaker 13: like you're with the you know, you're with us or
Speaker 13: against us kind of rhetoric that you see coming out
Speaker 13: of the US and to some extent China, and have
Speaker 13: instead sort of found a way to straddle you know,
Speaker 13: these these these fractures, you know, and and become kind
Speaker 13: of like connectors, new connectors between flows of trade. And
Speaker 13: that's something that I think in the initial years that
Speaker 13: were struffling of these supply chains, it's going to be
Speaker 13: more costly, and I m F and other and central
Speaker 13: banks have flagged that, but I think over the long
Speaker 13: term it will benefit uh some countries. Is sort of
Speaker 13: if the flow of trade runs through more nations.
Speaker 12: Okay, you're just like talking about it without talking about it.
Speaker 1: So there's a term that came.
Speaker 12: Up in the story connector economies. And I think Christina,
Speaker 12: what really fascinated me about this idea is that the
Speaker 12: world has been this US China dichotomy, like it's you're
Speaker 12: either in the US sphere of influence or the China one.
Speaker 12: But what in the current and Sean Donnan and others
Speaker 12: helped us illuminate here is that it's much more nuanced
Speaker 12: than that. So what are these connector economies and who
Speaker 12: are they?
Speaker 13: Well for well, we've we've found we chose Poland, Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia,
Speaker 13: and Morocco. And Mexico, for example, is a country where
Speaker 13: this year overtook China as the lead exporter to the US.
Speaker 13: But at the same time, in Mexico, China's imports, I'm sorry,
Speaker 13: Mexico's imports for China are growing really really fast, faster
Speaker 13: than it's exports to the US because Chinese companies are
Speaker 13: setting up chopped, I'm sorry, Chinese manufacturers are setting up
Speaker 13: shop along the border primarily to exports to the US
Speaker 13: so they can sidestep Trump's tariffs. So that's one thing
Speaker 13: you're seeing, like, you know, yeah, So it's kind of
Speaker 13: like I think of it as like are US China
Speaker 13: economies delinking or are they just linking up in different places?
Speaker 12: Yes, you know, and look who wins out of that
Speaker 12: is like a Mexico in that particular equation, right, So
Speaker 12: I think that's going to be a fastening dynamic. And
Speaker 12: I'm really interested to watch these five countries.
Speaker 3: One story that I wanted to touch on was what's
Speaker 3: going on with fox Con. I love this storage.
Speaker 12: Yeah, so this is a really interesting phone baker. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 6: So.
Speaker 12: So it's amazing how much stuff in the world fox
Speaker 12: cont actually manufacturers. It's like, you know, touch your phone,
Speaker 12: probably an iPhone made by fox Con, not an iPhone,
Speaker 12: probably made.
Speaker 6: By fox Con.
Speaker 12: Look in your living room if it's a technology device,
Speaker 12: some sort of tech apparatus, probably made by by fox Conn.
Speaker 12: So we did this story in the issue that really
Speaker 12: I think is a fascinating one by read Stephenson. Fox Conn,
Speaker 12: also Taiwanese company, also recognizes that maybe we've reached saturation
Speaker 12: and what that smartphone market looks like, and their next
Speaker 12: move looks like it might be into electric vehicles. And
Speaker 12: one of the places that they've acquired is the Lordstown Motors,
Speaker 12: this factory in Ohio, and they are already overhauling that
Speaker 12: factory to perhaps become a version of what they do
Speaker 12: for iPhones, where you, you know, basically have a white
Speaker 12: label manufacturing operation. What if you did the same thing
Speaker 12: for electric vehicles and you know, name your manufacturer, maybe
Speaker 12: fox Con makes that for you.
Speaker 3: I don't know maybe Apple, I don't know.
Speaker 6: I mean, no comment.
Speaker 12: Read the story. There's a little bit of whatnot and
Speaker 12: that's also another element of the story.
Speaker 4: Guys, we got to run, but great tease. Check out
Speaker 4: these stories.
Speaker 2: Joe Webber, the editor of Business Week, Christina Lindblad, Bloomberg
Speaker 2: BusinessWeek Global Economics Editor.
Speaker 4: Thank you, guys.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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Speaker 1: afternoons from three to six Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
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