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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside

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Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring

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Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along

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Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and

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Speaker 1: at Blueberg dot com slash podcast. Boy, I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: w t I crude oil pushing a hundred twenty bucks

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Speaker 1: a barrel. It's pretty unbelievable. Pretty bike, that's that's the

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Speaker 1: way to go. Yeah, I'm the e bike is the

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Speaker 1: way to go, all right, Tom Johnston, he's a partner

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Speaker 1: Blue Horizon. I'm sorry, Tim Johnson, Thank you very much,

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Speaker 1: Tim Johnson, partner Blue Horizon. Blue Horizon b n E

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Speaker 1: E t F is listed on the NASDAC. I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: N y s E b n E is the ticker

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Speaker 1: Blue Horizon New Energy Economy. I want to talk new

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Speaker 1: energy because I think about oil barrel, I'm thinking about solar,

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Speaker 1: I'm thinking about when I'm thinking about e bikes. Tim,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us here. Talk to us

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Speaker 1: about what you're doing Blue Horizon New Energy Economy. What

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Speaker 1: is the e t F that you guys have and

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Speaker 1: kind of what's the focus. Yeah, thank you for having me.

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Speaker 1: So we have an index e t F, as you said,

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Speaker 1: which is called Blue Horizon New Energy Economy one Index,

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Speaker 1: and what we do is we cover five key segments

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Speaker 1: across the new energy thematic, which we then subdivide into

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Speaker 1: twenty five sub segments with a hundred name holding And

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Speaker 1: what we're trying to do is actually reflect this transition

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Speaker 1: you just talked about w t I and what's going

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Speaker 1: on and what we would consider the old energy world.

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Speaker 1: But we all know, as you said, we were transitioning

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Speaker 1: into this new energy economy. The bikes is one part

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Speaker 1: of of that, but of course there's a whole range

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Speaker 1: of different things including solar and generation all the way

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Speaker 1: through to how we consume that energy that we see

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Speaker 1: as being an important investment thematic going forward for the

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Speaker 1: decade become and beyond. So who are the holdings here, um,

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Speaker 1: in this e t F And are they all public companies? Um?

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Speaker 1: Are they all you know, clean energy? What are we

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Speaker 1: talking about? Yeah? Absolutely so they're all public companies. We

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Speaker 1: have a rigorous process where we go by, uh, these

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Speaker 1: five sub segments which cover emobility, energy storage, performance materials,

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Speaker 1: energy distribution, and energy generation. And what we do is

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Speaker 1: we have a team that we've brought together from industry

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Speaker 1: with expertise in these different various backgrounds. And what we

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Speaker 1: do is we evaluate companies that are listed not just

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Speaker 1: in North America but but around the world to first

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Speaker 1: of all, evaluate them from first principle's perspective, to understand

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Speaker 1: the underlying principles of their business and to be able

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Speaker 1: to rate them accordingly. But then we also look at

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Speaker 1: things like liquidity and other aspects which are important to

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Speaker 1: build together effectively. What it is a fund that reflects

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Speaker 1: this new energy transition in a in a very comprehensive way.

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Speaker 1: All right, So, Tim, I'm all in on new energy,

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Speaker 1: alternative energy. You know, I get it. But boy, it's

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Speaker 1: six dollars a gallon for gas. I'm like, crank up

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Speaker 1: the the drills, crank up the refineries. Let's get some

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Speaker 1: more supply on the market. You can't do it that fast,

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Speaker 1: I guess. So are you sensing you know, in this

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Speaker 1: environment where now, Tim, with with these higher energy prices

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Speaker 1: a greater incentive for companies for consumers to embrace alternative

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Speaker 1: how are you thinking about that because wait for me,

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Speaker 1: it kind of goes both ways. Yeah, no, absolutely, and

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Speaker 1: it is a cyclical cycle. Right with with any new

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Speaker 1: technology or emerging industries, you're going to have waves where

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Speaker 1: you're seeing the growth of these segments across the economies

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Speaker 1: around the world. And so what we see is, you know,

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Speaker 1: you know, over the last couple of years, we've seen

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Speaker 1: a real portion terms of all let's say, the old

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Speaker 1: energy We've had a lot of background issues associated with

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Speaker 1: the conflicts, but also the broader things that are affecting

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Speaker 1: the economy around COVID, etcetera. That have put pressure on pricing,

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Speaker 1: which includes the old energy commodities. But what we know

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Speaker 1: is that the world is shifting. The world is shifting

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Speaker 1: away from this old energy economy to this new energy economy,

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Speaker 1: and it's happening right now. It's happening under our feet.

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Speaker 1: And so what we see is that whilst the old

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Speaker 1: energy economy is is important and relevant today and we're

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Speaker 1: seeing high prices as you said, in the oil sector,

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Speaker 1: we do believe that this will all swing back and

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Speaker 1: it will come back to favor these new energy companies

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Speaker 1: that are really going to benefit from our entire shift

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Speaker 1: in terms of how this economy works. What do you

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Speaker 1: make of the recent moves in the price. I mean

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Speaker 1: we're looking at right now, be any um, but we

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Speaker 1: ban up at thirty in the thirties, but almost thirty

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Speaker 1: four at the beginning of last year. What's going on

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Speaker 1: with price? Yeah? Absolutely so. One of the benefits of

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Speaker 1: having this broad range hundred name index is if you

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Speaker 1: look across our volatility across the segment against the piers,

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Speaker 1: but if you also look at the maximum draw down,

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Speaker 1: you'll see that we generally outperform out piers in this sector.

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Speaker 1: And so what we say is that this is a

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Speaker 1: great part of your long term portfolio. This isn't something

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Speaker 1: that we recommend people trade in and out on on

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Speaker 1: on a regular basis. It's more about if you believe

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Speaker 1: in this transition to this new energy world, this new

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Speaker 1: energy economy, then this is a great cornerstone for your

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Speaker 1: for your portfolio as you look to transition through different

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Speaker 1: segments and different macro backdrops. Tim just real quick thirty seconds.

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Speaker 1: I'm heading down to Texas next week. Is the US

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Speaker 1: ahead or behind kind of the rest of the world

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Speaker 1: in terms of some of these new energy initiatives? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: The US is desperately trying to catch up, and so

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Speaker 1: they've made you quite good strides. Over the last couple

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Speaker 1: of years, we've seen an increase in regionalization of supply chains,

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Speaker 1: and that will continue to benefit the US. The US,

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Speaker 1: of course, is a major consumer of these materials and

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Speaker 1: consumer of the end products which which rely on these materials,

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Speaker 1: and so we see that the US will continue to

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Speaker 1: enhance its position, but they still have a long way

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Speaker 1: to go to catch up with other parts of the world.

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Speaker 1: All right, Tim, Thanks very much, Tim Johnson, their partner

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Speaker 1: at Blue Horizon. The E t F ticker is B

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Speaker 1: and E and you can check it out listed on

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Speaker 1: the n y C and find out the details on

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Speaker 1: your Bloomberg. Well, we're gonna get some CPI data Friday,

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Speaker 1: and I think the question or the issue for many

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Speaker 1: investors is is just going to show us that inflation

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Speaker 1: has or maybe is peeking. And that's kind of what

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Speaker 1: I think some folks are looking for. Our next guess

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Speaker 1: isn't so sure and a want chief US economists for

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics, uh, and I think so much for joining

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Speaker 1: us here. When we see the CPI data on Friday,

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Speaker 1: what do you expect to see. Are you looking for

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Speaker 1: signs of of peak inflation? Yeah, so I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: signs that services inflation is slowing and that core good

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Speaker 1: inflation is um at zero or even um you know negative,

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Speaker 1: because in order for inflation you're a year to be

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Speaker 1: peaking soon. We really need to see the core that's

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Speaker 1: inflation coming down nearly fat otherwise are my team's expectation

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Speaker 1: is that we likely could see at the new peak

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Speaker 1: in July and potentially another new peak in September. Wow,

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Speaker 1: that's is that consensus. I just got a message from

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Speaker 1: every core I s I that says, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: after a spike in inflation that goes down as fast

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Speaker 1: as it went up. Yeah, I mean right now, the

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Speaker 1: inflationary pictures fairly mixed. It's very difficult to read because

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Speaker 1: from one hand you have core versus headline issues. So

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Speaker 1: headline is not speaking because gasoline prices are surging right

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Speaker 1: now and food prices continue to search. Services inflation continued

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Speaker 1: to search. But then uh, core inflation, the good on

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Speaker 1: the good side, we see see thanks flowing. You know,

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Speaker 1: targets earning yesterday tells earning forecasts yesterday tells you that

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Speaker 1: demand for for good, it's cooling rapidly. And then on

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Speaker 1: the other hand, you also have the pc EU deflator,

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Speaker 1: which is the FED Preferred inflation indicator, and that is

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Speaker 1: even cooling faster than the c p I, the core

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Speaker 1: PC I mean, because they have smaller weights on a

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Speaker 1: lot of stuff that's driving those fast the CPI inflation

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Speaker 1: like shelter, like gasoline and used cars, right, which we

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Speaker 1: all we all three categories we expect to be driving

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Speaker 1: CPI inflation in the next few months. So and you know,

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Speaker 1: for the headline number, which I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: people obviously will focus on, I mean, it's driven by

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Speaker 1: the stuff that just consumers have to deal with every day,

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, rising gasoline prices, rising prices at the supermarket,

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Speaker 1: and there's really nothing that the Federal Reserve can do

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Speaker 1: to really impact those areas, is that right? Yeah, But

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Speaker 1: the such objective right now is to pre empt inflation

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Speaker 1: expectations to an anchor, because if expectations an anchored, then

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Speaker 1: they're going to have to high create way higher in

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Speaker 1: order to generate the same amount of this inflation compared

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Speaker 1: to when expectations is not an anchored, and unfortunately often

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Speaker 1: times it is gasoline places in food prices that dry expectations. Furthermore,

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Speaker 1: another thing that the FED should be trying to preempt

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Speaker 1: is the wage price spiral, and that could be generated

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Speaker 1: by indexation of cost of living to CPILE. It's tied

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Speaker 1: to CPI, not PCD and and that so what they're

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Speaker 1: trying to do is not to lower those immediately lower

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Speaker 1: those prices, gas and food prices. Indeed, it's really to

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Speaker 1: pre empt expectations from it. Okay, by the way, Anna,

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Speaker 1: the FED is just one piece, and I know the

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Speaker 1: Biden administration would like us to believe that it's totally

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Speaker 1: the FED responsibility and only the FED can deal with inflation.

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Speaker 1: But clearly there are some things government can do. Gina

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Speaker 1: Armando was talking about lifting some tariffs recently. What do

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Speaker 1: you think Washington can and should do to help fight

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Speaker 1: rising prices? Yeah, I think one immediate policy or that

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Speaker 1: they could do is to make any more policy mistake.

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Speaker 1: And this is about to come across a palace, but

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Speaker 1: I think the student debt forgiveness, for example, the ten

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Speaker 1: thousand dollars student net forgiveness, is going to be inflationary

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Speaker 1: if they do so, especially as it's going to be

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Speaker 1: universal and only capping a couple of making three hundred k.

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Speaker 1: I estimated that, based on the advantised stations schedule of

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Speaker 1: the students loan, that that it could generate an extra

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Speaker 1: seventeen hundred dollars perpetually each year for a couple of

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Speaker 1: making you know, uh, three k. Um, it's um, it's

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Speaker 1: it's huge amount. But it won't it won't. It won't

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Speaker 1: be given to any couples make making more than three k. Right.

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Speaker 1: And these people who we think of as um, you know,

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Speaker 1: rich people, although we've seen surveys lately showing that a

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Speaker 1: lot of them are still living paycheck to paycheck. They

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Speaker 1: have the highest student debt, right, but also they have

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Speaker 1: been earning a lot more. These are we're talking about

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Speaker 1: lawyers and PhD in economic and you know, people who

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Speaker 1: could who could pay off. And I estimate that this um,

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Speaker 1: this the student death forgiveness, could be contributing an additional

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Speaker 1: of newer point five percentage point to inflation and this

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Speaker 1: year or next year, this year to next year. So

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Speaker 1: given where inflation is at right now, we certainly don't

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Speaker 1: need another you know, fifty basis points higher inflation. Well,

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Speaker 1: at least you've got the uh, uh, the the rescinding

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Speaker 1: of the salt tax acting in the opposite direction, right,

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Speaker 1: because a lot of these people live in Connecticut, New

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Speaker 1: Jersey and California, and uh they're getting hit hard by

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Speaker 1: state and local taxes which they can no longer deduct. Well,

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Speaker 1: but that that effect had been in trains and it

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Speaker 1: still hurts Anna. I limit that E shows Yeah, so Anna,

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Speaker 1: you know one of the things that you know, I

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Speaker 1: need to remind myself of as we think about inflation

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Speaker 1: is this really is a global issue. It's not just

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Speaker 1: the U S issue. And there's true is that typical

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Speaker 1: anda do we typically see when the US is in

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Speaker 1: a significantly inflationary environment that we see it in the

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Speaker 1: rest of the world as well. Well. The things that

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Speaker 1: the fact that all all many countries are seeing inflationary pressure,

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Speaker 1: it means there's a common shock across the world, and

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Speaker 1: that is the supply shock. But the issue is that

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Speaker 1: US inflation is uniquely high um before the war in Ukraine,

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Speaker 1: the US inflation is running about three percentage point higher

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Speaker 1: than the rest of the advanced economy UH in the O, E,

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Speaker 1: C D countries, which means that in US there's a

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Speaker 1: specific demand component to the cost of our high inflation,

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Speaker 1: which the Europe does not have for example. All right, Anna,

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Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciated. Annawan,

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Speaker 1: chiefs economist for Bloomberg Economics. Check out this resume. I

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Speaker 1: was just gonna say, I mean, PhD from the Economics

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Speaker 1: and University of chicagoy're pretty good. They're pretty good. They

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Speaker 1: have a pretty good program, and they like numbers. There

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Speaker 1: be an economics and statistics statistics from Berkeley also pretty

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Speaker 1: good where she worked before Bloomberg. Former Federal Reserve Principal economist,

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Speaker 1: former Chief International Economist on White House Council of Economic Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's not bad. Former Deputy Director in the Office of

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Speaker 1: International Economic Analysts at the U. S. Treasury, and former

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Speaker 1: international economists. I also I love reading your research, So

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Speaker 1: thank you very much for joining us, and I hope

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Speaker 1: next time you come into New York City that join

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Speaker 1: us in the studio here at seven thirty one Lexington Avenue,

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Speaker 1: because we are so happy that you are working for

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Speaker 1: us and along chief US economist for Bloomberg LP. Here's

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Speaker 1: the story going across the Bloomberg Manley call is pretty cool.

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Speaker 1: Mike Novigrats, the founder and chief executive of Galaxy Digital

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Speaker 1: Holdings says that two thirds of the hedge funds that

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Speaker 1: invest in cryptocurrencies will fail as a consequence of the

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Speaker 1: current market downtown downturn. Not very bullish on the crypt

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Speaker 1: on our next guest and you and he says, and

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Speaker 1: we can get into this with our guests, but it's

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Speaker 1: because the Central Bank has taken the punch bowl away.

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Speaker 1: They have, I know, and that's kind of gonna be

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Speaker 1: an issue on our next guest. I think might have

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Speaker 1: some thoughts on that time. Or Hyatt, CEO of PGM.

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Speaker 1: That's the investment arm of Prudential Insurance Company. They Prudential

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Speaker 1: is a lifelong resident New Jersey. They are the pride

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Speaker 1: of Newark, New Jersey. We love to folks at Prudential

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Speaker 1: there and what they do in Jersey time or thanks

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Speaker 1: so much for joining it at PGIM. What do you

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Speaker 1: guys think about crypto? What are you doing there? So

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Speaker 1: you know, I think I agree with Agravats, but I think,

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Speaker 1: but I think there is probably some money to be

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Speaker 1: made by quantitage funds in alpha generation because there is

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Speaker 1: so much speculative fear of missing out retail money flowing

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Speaker 1: into crypto currencies that if you on the other side

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Speaker 1: of that, you can generate alpha. Uh. And maybe it's

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Speaker 1: only one third of hedge funds to do that, But

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Speaker 1: we've taken more of a lens, just a cold hard

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Speaker 1: look at the data because there's just so much mythology

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Speaker 1: and uh and you know social media frenzy around this.

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Speaker 1: We took a cold hard look at the data and said,

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Speaker 1: if you take bitcoins now a teenager, it's been around

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Speaker 1: for over twelve years. If you look at the data,

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Speaker 1: particularly the last four years, you know, early early entrance

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Speaker 1: had a great chance to make a lot of money

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Speaker 1: with this. What does the data say And as a

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Speaker 1: long term investment, should you hold cryptocurrencies in your portfolio

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Speaker 1: as an institutional, as a sophisticated investor, Our answer is no.

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Speaker 1: The data speaks volumes against that idea based on everything

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Speaker 1: we see to date and what's going to happen in

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Speaker 1: the near future. Why, you know, one of the encouraging

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Speaker 1: things for crypto balls has been UM adoption by institutional

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Speaker 1: investors and more and more banks are opening trading desks,

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Speaker 1: more and more banks are looking at custody UM and

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Speaker 1: it seems like the ratio of retail to institutional continues

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Speaker 1: to be bullish. Do you think that that's going to

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Speaker 1: turn around? Now? I think it's going to turn around.

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Speaker 1: You know. Again, the trick here to be a good

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Speaker 1: active investor is to look at the data. I will

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Speaker 1: say yesterday we were looking at the e t f

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Speaker 1: s and year to date, among the entire universe of

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Speaker 1: e t s, which is a big universe. Now, um

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Speaker 1: crypto e t s are the second biggest losers with

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Speaker 1: draw downs. The only e t s that have lost

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Speaker 1: more are Russia e t f s. So if you

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Speaker 1: go all the way back to even twenty nineteen and

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Speaker 1: you look at the risk adjusted return of cryptocurrency is,

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Speaker 1: given the draw down, given the volatility, given all the

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Speaker 1: turbulence that they have, they aren't better than bonds and stocks.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the correlations, which is what institutional

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Speaker 1: investors do, Is it giving me diversified return with equities,

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Speaker 1: with real estate, with go old? Definitely not. It's not,

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Speaker 1: you know for the first five seven years. It did

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Speaker 1: for the last five years. It is giving you risk

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Speaker 1: on levered access to the same risk you're getting elsewhere.

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Speaker 1: You're not getting un correlated returns. Is it a safe

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Speaker 1: haven you know, gold has five thousand years of history

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Speaker 1: and intrinsic uses in industry and jewelry that does make

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Speaker 1: it a decent long term inflation head never a great

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Speaker 1: shot term, but a good long term inflation hedge in

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Speaker 1: the only incidence of inflation, and we boy, we have

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Speaker 1: it in spades. Now Bitcoin is moving in the opposite

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Speaker 1: direction to infish, and it's not acting as a safe haven.

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Speaker 1: It's not acting as a hedge. It didn't act as

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Speaker 1: a safe haven in in COVID, so it's not really

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Speaker 1: playing the digital goal role. It's not really But maybe

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Speaker 1: that's just now. I mean, if you look at maybe

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Speaker 1: four thousand, nine hundred and ninety three years ago, gold

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Speaker 1: had like a five year spot of correlation. So it's

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Speaker 1: always easier to say that these are the sort of

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Speaker 1: early pangs of a new asset class, and you know

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Speaker 1: it's going to be volatile and it's going to stabilize.

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Speaker 1: But twelve years is a long time guy. So there's

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Speaker 1: a lot of data now that that's showing it's not true.

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Speaker 1: And I think I see two other headwinds coming down

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Speaker 1: the road. One is regulators are getting smart around this

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Speaker 1: and finally catching up. You know, regulation lags by several years.

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Speaker 1: We've seen it in tech, we're now seeing it with cryptocurrency.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna be big regulatory headwinds from China all the way.

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Speaker 1: They can just ban it and they have, you know,

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Speaker 1: the mining of cryptocurrency. But regulators around the world are

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Speaker 1: catching up on this and that's going to be a

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Speaker 1: big headwind. And second, I think maybe it's two three

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Speaker 1: years down the road, maybe it's five. But when you

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Speaker 1: have the digital dollar, the digital or the digital staring

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Speaker 1: and all those stuffs are working CBDCs, why would I

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Speaker 1: Why would I buy a stable coin that has liquidity risk,

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Speaker 1: that has credit risks with unclear reserves when I can

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Speaker 1: buy the digital dollar. Now all the infrastructure that cryptocurrencies

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Speaker 1: have built, that is going to be where I think

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Speaker 1: the value is. It's in the picks and the shovels,

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Speaker 1: not in the goal. Cd d C is central bank

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Speaker 1: digital currency. Okay, shown off? Now all right, so Matt,

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Speaker 1: we've been calling out some of the resumes of some

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Speaker 1: of our guests today. Listen to this guy, Tamar PhD

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Speaker 1: in economics from Oxford University. They're pretty good, but they're

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Speaker 1: pretty good. Right now, he's in a radio station talking bitcoin,

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Speaker 1: how the mighty have fallen? I mean when you look

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Speaker 1: at like a I guess when I think about it,

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Speaker 1: and I spent so long on the Wall Street and

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Speaker 1: I figured it like if Wall streets into it, then

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Speaker 1: it's kind of real, you know. And uh, And I

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Speaker 1: just don't see the Jamie Diamonds of the world embracing crypto.

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Speaker 1: He hates it. He hates it. And I don't see

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Speaker 1: a crypto trading desk on Goldman Sacts. They might have one,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, but I have one in the works.

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Speaker 1: And look, it doesn't matter if Jamie Diamond and Warren

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Speaker 1: Buffett and everybody else over you know five doesn't like crypto.

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Speaker 1: That's not necessarily speaking that that's the question. How do

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Speaker 1: you do you need the validation of Greater Wall Street

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Speaker 1: too for the class you know as as you know,

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Speaker 1: we manage over one point for treating and asclets, we

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Speaker 1: don't need their validation. But but we do look for

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Speaker 1: certain things in any new asset class. Right First, is

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Speaker 1: there a stable correlation without their asset classes? B? Is

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Speaker 1: there a source of value that has some sort of

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Speaker 1: intrinsic purpose beyond speculation and speculation could continue you know,

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Speaker 1: retail investor. Scan might make money for a while, but

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Speaker 1: is there a true source of value and that is

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Speaker 1: there a stable regulatory regime or the regulatory headwinds. Bitcoin

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Speaker 1: and other cryptocurrencies don't meet any of that. But we

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Speaker 1: are bullish because I don't want to end on a

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Speaker 1: variation note. We are bullish around the innovations that accidentally

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Speaker 1: happened in the creation of bitcoin. And I'm talking technology

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Speaker 1: with the blockchain, blockchains, smart contracts, tokenization of real assets.

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Speaker 1: I told you that real value. You're preaching to the

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Speaker 1: choir here, tam or Matt has been all over this

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Speaker 1: team or high thank you so much for joining us.

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Speaker 1: He's the CEO of p Jim joining us in our

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg and our actor Broker studio, talking crypto as it

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Speaker 1: continues to evolve as potentially an ASI class for some.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's talk real estate, residential real estate again.

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Speaker 1: Matt's been in the market. I am now out of

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Speaker 1: the market. I prefer my position. But let's talk to

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Speaker 1: someone who does this stuff for I mean Kenneth Leone,

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Speaker 1: research director at CFR A. Ken has housing in this country,

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Speaker 1: has it peaked? So there's an incredible housing shortage. We're

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Speaker 1: talking millions since the housing crisis over ten years ago.

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Speaker 1: That's not going to go away. And housing probably has

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Speaker 1: peaked near term because of the pressure from rising interest

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Speaker 1: rates mortgage rates above five it's hurting the product categories

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Speaker 1: of entry level home buyers also move up categories. And

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Speaker 1: the only areas on the recent National Association Realtors Existing

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Speaker 1: inventory sales that was positive was the seven hundred fifty

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Speaker 1: twill a million dollar category and above a million. So

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Speaker 1: we are seeing moderation. Yes, I think we've seen a peak.

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Speaker 1: So uh. By the way, Ken, we've been giving people's

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Speaker 1: resumes out today. So you were imaging direct to a

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Speaker 1: bear Stearns Senior VP at Lehman Brothers. Um, you were, uh,

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Speaker 1: the global director of Equity Research at McGraw hill Financial.

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Speaker 1: You know what you're doing, You know what you're talking about.

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Speaker 1: What do you expect from mortgage rates going forward? Because

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Speaker 1: we're hearing about a FED that could raise at fifty

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Speaker 1: basis point increments, you know, possibly for three or four meetings.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they're gonna raise uh, they're gonna raise rates like

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Speaker 1: by three percent by the time they're done here. What

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Speaker 1: are we gonna see in terms of mortgage rates. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a great question. And and most importantly,

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Speaker 1: the mortgage market is dan about sixty on originations, whether

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Speaker 1: it's purchased or refi refights debt, and the FED quantitative

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Speaker 1: tightening the mortgage back securities. You know they're gonna be

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Speaker 1: peeling off thirty five billion in September, half of that

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Speaker 1: starting in June. That's the macro to your reference to

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Speaker 1: Peers Sterns or Lehman. But you know, generally the markets

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Speaker 1: will stay liquid, and I think for mortgage rates, h

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Speaker 1: it's likely that uh not even the Mortgage Bankers Association,

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Speaker 1: which is the bowl case for mortgage rates, is going

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Speaker 1: above five point two in either two or twenty three.

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Speaker 1: To answer your question, I think we're gonna see five

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Speaker 1: and a half six percent on a mortgage rate. Can

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Speaker 1: you mentioned supply of homes and kind of what I've

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Speaker 1: heard really over the years is the housing industry there.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the homebuilders are really good at building those McMansions.

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Speaker 1: There's big profit margins in for the builders there on

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Speaker 1: those types of homes. But what they have not been

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Speaker 1: building it's kind of the entry level home here. Is

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Speaker 1: that changing at all? Do you think it has changed,

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Speaker 1: but you know, again, the backdrop how this market is

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Speaker 1: different than when we hit the housing crisis back in

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Speaker 1: OH eight or O nine is that UM, home builders

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Speaker 1: learn their balances are strong, they have debt maturities that

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Speaker 1: really becomes more measurable two or three years out on maturities,

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Speaker 1: and uh, they have great liquidity, so they're not speculating.

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Speaker 1: They also change the mix of their land inventory to

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Speaker 1: be about six to seventy option, which means they can

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Speaker 1: cancel it for a small fee and the rest is

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Speaker 1: own lot. Totally different picture than the spectacltive side, both

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Speaker 1: from the home builders as well as home buyers that

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Speaker 1: were subprime. PYCO scores are very high today, UM, and

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Speaker 1: that's why I use the word moderation from the peak

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Speaker 1: for the housing market. All right, Ken, great, great stuff.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate getting your thoughts. Can we own research directored

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Speaker 1: cfr fr A. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast.

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Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts

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Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three on Fall Sweeney, I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio