1 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Lots Podcast. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,760 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway. 3 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:20,239 Speaker 1: Tracy New Year. I think, so far in twenty twenty four, 4 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 1: I do not feel any more clear or confident that 5 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,640 Speaker 1: I have some real deep sense of which way this 6 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: economy has gone. 7 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 3: Uh. 8 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 2: It feels like there's a risk that everyone could be 9 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:34,600 Speaker 2: wrong just going in the other direction this time around. 10 00:00:34,640 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 2: So as we've discussed multiple times, at this point, feels 11 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:40,959 Speaker 2: like there's a lot more acceptance for the idea of 12 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:44,000 Speaker 2: a soft landing or the idea that inflation can come 13 00:00:44,040 --> 00:00:47,840 Speaker 2: down without generating a big spike in unemployment. 14 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,360 Speaker 1: No, there's no question at the end of last year 15 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:54,240 Speaker 1: like soft landing, optimism really picked up. But you could 16 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 1: like tell me any story right now, and I would 17 00:00:56,400 --> 00:01:00,560 Speaker 1: believe you could say, oh, financial conditions are easy quite 18 00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: a bit. Stock markets at all time high or close 19 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: to all time high. Rates are falling, the labor market 20 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,839 Speaker 1: is tight. Wage growth just came in higher than expectation. 21 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 1: There's still upward risk of inflation. You could tell me, oh, 22 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 1: u six, and various measures of the labor market actually 23 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 1: weakened last month. Maybe the economy is not as on 24 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: solid footing as we thought or two months ago. Like 25 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 1: any story, this is, I might believe you. 26 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 2: This is a symptom of being online too much and 27 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:32,559 Speaker 2: talking to people online too much. 28 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:33,200 Speaker 4: That's it. 29 00:01:33,520 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 2: Yeah, and just being able to argue both sides of 30 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:38,480 Speaker 2: the story because you see it constantly. But I mean, 31 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 2: I take the point like, there there is a lot 32 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:44,040 Speaker 2: more optimism out there right now than there was a 33 00:01:44,160 --> 00:01:46,320 Speaker 2: year ago. But on the other hand, there is still 34 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 2: this I guess lingering sense of unease or even angst 35 00:01:51,080 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 2: that you see in some of the consumer measurements. Or 36 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 2: again to your point online, if you point out the 37 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: jobs market is doing really great, you will have a 38 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 2: bunch of people talking revisions to payrolls and things like that. 39 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's legitimate, like some of the measures have 40 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,640 Speaker 1: gone down. So you know, I genuinely I find myself 41 00:02:09,880 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: and plus the crowd is you know, gets it wrong 42 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 1: a lot, So it seems like we're at tempting fate 43 00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,920 Speaker 1: by believing too much in the soft landing story. But 44 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: it really does feel to me, like, you know, there 45 00:02:19,760 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: are many moving parts to this economy. You mentioned some 46 00:02:23,040 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: of the sentiment measures, but there's also the fact that 47 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:30,640 Speaker 1: even with the inflation improvement, housing is still incredibly expensive, 48 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 1: and there's all kinds of frustrations around that. So I 49 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:35,440 Speaker 1: don't think we will ever reach the end where we 50 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,720 Speaker 1: could say, Okay, we know what's going on in the 51 00:02:37,720 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: economy right now. We're always just going to sort of 52 00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 1: be searching for more threads to follow. 53 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,520 Speaker 2: The soft landing is a journey, not a destination. 54 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 3: Joe. 55 00:02:46,080 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 1: Well, on that note, I really think we do have 56 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: the perfect guests to start the year to discuss the 57 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 1: state of the economy, where it's going, what policy levers 58 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: might yet to be pulled as we go through twenty 59 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: twenty four. I'm thrilled to welcome her first time coming 60 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:04,160 Speaker 1: on to the Odd Lots podcast. Lalol Brainerd, Director of 61 00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,600 Speaker 1: the National Economic Council, Lalo Brainerd, thank you so much 62 00:03:07,680 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 1: for coming on Odd Lots. Really appreciate you joining us. 63 00:03:11,360 --> 00:03:13,720 Speaker 1: Why did we just get started? So on Friday we 64 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: had the latest December non farm payrolls report. Headline looked 65 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 1: pretty solid, unemployment, wages, job creation better than expected, but 66 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:25,840 Speaker 1: we did see some weakening in measures like labor force 67 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:30,960 Speaker 1: participation rate, prime age, employment to population U six measures 68 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,600 Speaker 1: of underemployment. Is there anything that concerns you right now 69 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:37,200 Speaker 1: about the momentum of the labor market as we head 70 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: into twenty twenty four. 71 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:40,960 Speaker 3: Well, I have to say, taking a step back, sure 72 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 3: that the labor market looks really strong if you think 73 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 3: about it. It started twenty twenty three with unemployment already 74 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 3: below four percent, and it maintained that. In fact, it's 75 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 3: been below four percent now for just about two years, 76 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 3: which I think is we haven't seen that for fifty years. 77 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 3: And even despite the fact that we started the year 78 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 3: from a position of low unemployment, the economy created an 79 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:12,360 Speaker 3: additional two point seven million jobs, which is really a record. 80 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 3: And in terms of thinking about the economy going forward, 81 00:04:18,000 --> 00:04:23,520 Speaker 3: the growth of the economy's been quite good. Productivity has 82 00:04:23,560 --> 00:04:27,120 Speaker 3: been up, and inflation has actually come down during this 83 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 3: time of strong employment growth, So that also looks like 84 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:32,120 Speaker 3: a pretty healthy economy. 85 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 2: So I take the point about the health of the 86 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,160 Speaker 2: jobs market at the moment, but I can tell you 87 00:04:37,240 --> 00:04:41,360 Speaker 2: from personal experience that if you tweet the payrolls figure 88 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:45,239 Speaker 2: came in strong or higher than expected, you do get 89 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 2: a bunch of people on the internet who are pointing 90 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 2: to things like downward revisions, or the shift from full 91 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,160 Speaker 2: time to part time jobs, or the number of people 92 00:04:54,360 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: now who have to hold multiple jobs. How are you 93 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 2: thinking about I guess the quality of jobs as well 94 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:03,160 Speaker 2: as the headline figure. 95 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 3: Look, I think the overall statistics are very strong in 96 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:13,200 Speaker 3: terms of the quality of jobs as well. We've had 97 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 3: wage growth that is exceeding inflation now not just relative 98 00:05:21,000 --> 00:05:24,960 Speaker 3: to when the President took office, but also relative to 99 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:29,880 Speaker 3: the strongest pre pandemic year. So wages are up by 100 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 3: an amount that means most households can spend, you know, 101 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:37,919 Speaker 3: thirty five hundred dollars of extra spending after buying the 102 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:42,000 Speaker 3: same things they would have purchased a pre pandemic. Wealth 103 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,880 Speaker 3: is also up, and the fact that so many Americans 104 00:05:45,920 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 3: are employed, that the employment of population ratio for working 105 00:05:51,360 --> 00:05:56,920 Speaker 3: age Americans is very high, higher than pre pandemic means 106 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 3: that those people are going to continue earning and continue 107 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:06,280 Speaker 3: being able to spend and to power the economy going forward. 108 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 3: So while I think we are seeing slowing growth, which 109 00:06:09,320 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 3: would make sense at this point in a very strong recovery, Nonetheless, 110 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:18,920 Speaker 3: the wages, the record union contracts that we have seen 111 00:06:19,120 --> 00:06:22,760 Speaker 3: over the last year vote really well for the ability 112 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 3: of households to continue spending and to continue fueling the economy. 113 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,440 Speaker 1: Do you have an explanation for why the labor market 114 00:06:30,520 --> 00:06:33,719 Speaker 1: has held up as well as it has given a 115 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:36,839 Speaker 1: sort of historic interest rate shock over the last eighteen 116 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 1: twenty four months. 117 00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:42,240 Speaker 3: Well, look, I think it is remarkable actually, just how 118 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 3: much this president has navigated through if you think about it, 119 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 3: the pandemic, which scrambled supply chains and led to a 120 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:55,599 Speaker 3: historic number of people out of the labor force. And 121 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 3: then just on top of that, we got this massive 122 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:03,960 Speaker 3: oil price shock by rush invasion of Ukraine, and just 123 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 3: a year ago, don't forget, we navigated a regional banking crisis, 124 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 3: all while interest rates were rising. But if you look 125 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 3: at the strength of the labor market, the growth that 126 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 3: we've seen over the course of the last year, well 127 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,360 Speaker 3: above trend, and if you look at inflation, which we 128 00:07:23,400 --> 00:07:26,320 Speaker 3: saw coming back down to two percent in terms of 129 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: that core measure over the last six months, it's been 130 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 3: a strong record, and I think it reflects the president's 131 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 3: own views that this was not a normal kind of recovery, 132 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 3: and he focused on two things, one on making sure 133 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 3: that as many Americans were able to stay in their homes, 134 00:07:50,720 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 3: come back into the labor force, quickly maintain their household 135 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 3: balance sheets. So you had a much more equitable recovery, 136 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:03,600 Speaker 3: and it was also a much stronger recovery that attracted 137 00:08:03,640 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 3: a lot of Americans back into the labor force. So 138 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 3: instead of seeing the great resignation, we've seen the great 139 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,560 Speaker 3: rebound in terms of the workforce. And then the second thing, 140 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:16,480 Speaker 3: he put a tremendous amount of focus on the supply 141 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 3: side of They found the economy which was really the 142 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 3: source of a lot of the distortions. And he's got 143 00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 3: a agenda of investing in America and investing in Americans 144 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:32,560 Speaker 3: that has an ongoing focus on more R and D spending, 145 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 3: more spending on clean energy transition, fixing infrastructure that really 146 00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:44,640 Speaker 3: needed to be fixed, and of course investing in industries 147 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 3: of the future like semiconductors. So you know, we've got 148 00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 3: that strong investing in America agenda along with a strong 149 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 3: recovery attracting people back into the labor force into these 150 00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:57,720 Speaker 3: good jobs of the future. 151 00:08:58,800 --> 00:09:01,240 Speaker 2: So Joe and I definitely want to get into more 152 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,160 Speaker 2: of the supply side in just a bit, but before 153 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:07,079 Speaker 2: we do, given everything that you just slaid, out, So 154 00:09:07,360 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 2: the economic recovery, which was stronger than a lot of 155 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 2: people expected, the still very strong and buoyant jobs market, 156 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:17,840 Speaker 2: the improvement in wages, where you know, on an inflation 157 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 2: adjusted basis, we have seen those going up. Why do 158 00:09:22,200 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 2: you think in surveys people are still showing some sort 159 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 2: of angst. You know, we've seen this repeatedly, and you 160 00:09:29,840 --> 00:09:32,640 Speaker 2: can call it whatever you want, the vibe session or 161 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 2: something else, But why aren't those messages filtering through? 162 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's a good question. I mean, if you 163 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 3: do look at both household incomes adjusted for inflation, really 164 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 3: strong improvement since before the pandemic. And secondly, if you 165 00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 3: look at wealth media and household wealth is up by 166 00:09:53,320 --> 00:09:58,560 Speaker 3: thirty seven percent inflation adjusted since before the pandemic, so 167 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 3: the best year of the previous administration. So in terms 168 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 3: of personal finances, you do actually see Americans reporting with 169 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 3: a large majority that they are doing okay financially and 170 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 3: job satisfaction is quite high. But it's been a very 171 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 3: stressful few years for Americans if you think about the 172 00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 3: number of layoffs, the number of small businesses that shuttered, 173 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 3: and then the surge of inflation that was on the 174 00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,960 Speaker 3: supply side, and it may take a little bit of 175 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 3: time for Americans to really feel confident that the good 176 00:10:36,559 --> 00:10:40,320 Speaker 3: economic numbers that they're seeing and their own good personal 177 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:46,120 Speaker 3: situations is actually going to be sustained. And part of 178 00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 3: that is some prices have not come down, and we're 179 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 3: fighting pretty hard to get those prices to come down. 180 00:10:53,880 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 3: One area that really is difficult for Americans is healthcare affordability. 181 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 3: And though you've had a huge set of really important 182 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 3: initiatives that the President has been focused on. For instance, 183 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 3: in the legislation that was passed about a year ago, 184 00:11:11,880 --> 00:11:16,079 Speaker 3: it actually brings down the cost of insulin for the 185 00:11:16,120 --> 00:11:19,200 Speaker 3: first time from four hundred dollars a month to thirty 186 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 3: five dollars a month for seniors, and some companies have 187 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 3: extended that more broadly, and it caps the yearly out 188 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 3: of pocket costs for seniors for prescription drugs at two 189 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 3: thousand dollars, So that will start to make a dent there. 190 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:37,960 Speaker 3: But we're going to continue pushing on healthcare costs as 191 00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:42,560 Speaker 3: well as other areas which are really more about deceptive 192 00:11:42,640 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 3: pricing where Americans feel like they're just spending more than 193 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:47,640 Speaker 3: they should. 194 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:08,439 Speaker 1: So one area of disinflation or supply side improvement that's 195 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: very clear has been on oil and gasoline prices. And 196 00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:14,120 Speaker 1: you mentioned the oil shock a couple of years ago 197 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: or a year and a half ago, but it's obviously 198 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:20,320 Speaker 1: come down quite a bit. Meanwhile, US oil production, domestic 199 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: production of oil is at all time highs. Is that 200 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 1: something that the White House is proud of and is 201 00:12:26,640 --> 00:12:29,560 Speaker 1: that something that further aims Does the White House aim 202 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 1: to see further expansion of domestic oil production in order 203 00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:34,760 Speaker 1: to push gasoline prices lower? 204 00:12:35,040 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 3: Well, gas prices are so important for weekly budgets and 205 00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 3: the kind of kitchen table economics focus of this administration 206 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 3: is very much trying to make sure that people have 207 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:52,240 Speaker 3: a little breathing room at the end of each month 208 00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 3: after paying their bills. So that reduction in gas prices 209 00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:01,240 Speaker 3: at the pump from to about two I want to say, 210 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:05,320 Speaker 3: it's just a touch below three dollars median price that 211 00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:08,360 Speaker 3: Americans are seeing around the country, and in a lot 212 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,000 Speaker 3: of states they're seeing lower prices than that. That is 213 00:13:11,040 --> 00:13:15,160 Speaker 3: a very meaningful amount of relief. It's about a dollar 214 00:13:15,360 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 3: ninety down from what we saw a year ago. And 215 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:23,439 Speaker 3: of course we're also seeing some grocery store prices coming down. 216 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 3: But in terms of your question, the President also has 217 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:33,720 Speaker 3: a huge clean energy transition investment agenda. He got historic 218 00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 3: legislation there. We have tax credits that are leading to 219 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 3: a real boom in manufacturing of clean energy, clean vehicles. 220 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 3: So these two things are going on at the same time, 221 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 3: and that bodes very well for the longer term transition 222 00:13:53,080 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 3: to a clean energy future that America is in the 223 00:13:56,840 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 3: process of making. And I would say those tax credits 224 00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 3: tremendous excitement. They are huge numbers of private sector investments 225 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 3: that are being catalyzed by those government inflation reduction at 226 00:14:11,600 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 3: clean energy incentives. 227 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:17,319 Speaker 2: Since you mentioned grocery prices, one thing we've been talking 228 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:20,560 Speaker 2: quite a bit on this podcast about is excuse flation, 229 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 2: or the idea that companies have taken advantage of supply 230 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 2: chain disruptions to raise their prices all at once, and 231 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 2: other people call it different things, you know, profit led 232 00:14:31,560 --> 00:14:36,560 Speaker 2: inflation or seller's inflation. Biden recently referred to it as 233 00:14:36,760 --> 00:14:42,240 Speaker 2: price gouging. But I'm curious what evidence you see from 234 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 2: your perch of companies sort of opportunistically raising prices. And 235 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 2: then secondly, what tools does the Biden administration actually have 236 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 2: to target prices that are ultimately being set by private enterprises. 237 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, so we have seen and you can see it 238 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:05,680 Speaker 3: in the data that when supply chains were snarled and 239 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:10,560 Speaker 3: input prices were going up, that a lot of big 240 00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:16,000 Speaker 3: corporations raised their prices to consumers by as much or more, 241 00:15:16,040 --> 00:15:19,440 Speaker 3: which meant that their markups went up, which some people 242 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 3: have referred to as a price price spiral. And the 243 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:27,120 Speaker 3: President has been very focused on this because if you 244 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:33,360 Speaker 3: look at supply chain measures, they look like a very 245 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 3: sharp spike upward to a level of supply chain disruptions 246 00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 3: that we really don't see in the data prior to 247 00:15:44,040 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, and then they come down extremely sharply 248 00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 3: over the course of twenty twenty three, so that they 249 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:57,000 Speaker 3: are now back down to levels that we saw pre pandemic. 250 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 3: And input costs also have come down. So what is 251 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 3: really troubling is that corporations need to pass those input 252 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:15,280 Speaker 3: cost declines on to consumers and so that consumers can 253 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 3: see the benefit of that in their weekly budgets. And 254 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 3: the President has been very clear about how important that is. 255 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 3: We've done a lot of work to fix those supply chains. 256 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 3: Now corporations need to make those input cost reductions available 257 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 3: to consumers in terms of their final price. And we're 258 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,200 Speaker 3: also taking action where we have enforcement tools on deceptive 259 00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:45,520 Speaker 3: or unfair pricing. And so you've seen actions in areas 260 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 3: like airlines on family seating fees or extra baggage fees. 261 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 3: We've seen actions that the administration has taken on overdraft 262 00:16:56,480 --> 00:17:03,360 Speaker 3: fees and bounce check fees, and will continue to push 263 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:08,399 Speaker 3: really hard and take action where necessary in the areas 264 00:17:08,800 --> 00:17:13,399 Speaker 3: like ticketing fees, other areas where American consumers are just 265 00:17:13,480 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 3: kind of fed up with seeing these extra charges. 266 00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 2: How do you encourage companies to pass on those price 267 00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:25,600 Speaker 2: declines to consumers? Because I'm just thinking in other parts 268 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 2: of the world, I mean, notably Europe, there's been talk 269 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:31,919 Speaker 2: of stuff like or some action on price controls, but 270 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:35,639 Speaker 2: that seems like a sort of political non starter in 271 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 2: the US. So what exactly can you ask companies to 272 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 2: do on this front. 273 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, that really hasn't been the approach that this administration 274 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:46,560 Speaker 3: has taken at all. It has been to use the 275 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:52,439 Speaker 3: authorities we have at our regulatory agencies to go after 276 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 3: fees that are deceptive, fees that are not transparent, fees 277 00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 3: on ticketing or fees on hotels. You know, we've had 278 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:09,800 Speaker 3: the President meet with people who for instance, Becky Chong 279 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 3: from Oregon, you know, came to a junk fees event 280 00:18:13,720 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 3: at the White House and she talked about how she 281 00:18:16,560 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 3: and her husband took her two daughters to see their 282 00:18:19,840 --> 00:18:24,720 Speaker 3: grandparents last summer and they were surprised to see unexpected 283 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:27,919 Speaker 3: junk fees on their hotel bill that totaled over one 284 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 3: hundred dollars. So partly by just making these practices very 285 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:39,480 Speaker 3: transparent and then taking enforcement actions and creating rules about 286 00:18:39,560 --> 00:18:43,439 Speaker 3: transparency of those prices, we are starting to see some 287 00:18:43,600 --> 00:18:47,200 Speaker 3: real progress, but it's not enough. And in the area 288 00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 3: of healthcare in particular, we have legislative tools to enable 289 00:18:51,680 --> 00:18:56,680 Speaker 3: drug prices for the first time to be negotiated with Medicare, 290 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 3: and we expect that to make a big difference. 291 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,200 Speaker 1: I just want to go back again to the question 292 00:19:01,320 --> 00:19:05,120 Speaker 1: of domestic energy, especially given the industrial policy efforts from 293 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 1: the White House, chips, the Inflation Reduction Act, the infrastructure 294 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:12,919 Speaker 1: spending obviously is going to need a lot of energy 295 00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: to power up new factories, new facilities, and so forth. 296 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 1: Does the White House want to see that domestic production 297 00:19:20,320 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: of oil and gas continue to rise. I take it 298 00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:26,480 Speaker 1: about the clean energy and the transition, but in terms 299 00:19:26,480 --> 00:19:29,400 Speaker 1: of fossil fuels, does the White House want to see 300 00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:32,840 Speaker 1: that line continue to rise? I feel like the last 301 00:19:32,880 --> 00:19:36,240 Speaker 1: president and the perhaps rival would be out tweeting about 302 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 1: that line a lot. 303 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 3: The President has passed historic legislation to help this economy 304 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:51,439 Speaker 3: transition in the most resilient and dynamic way to a 305 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 3: clean energy future. So that really has been a huge 306 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,639 Speaker 3: focus on his part to make sure that the US 307 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 3: is a leader on technologies that are going to reduce 308 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:10,360 Speaker 3: emissions and a leader on clean energy and electric vehicle 309 00:20:10,560 --> 00:20:14,880 Speaker 3: investments at the same time. During this transitional period, he's 310 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:19,439 Speaker 3: been very focused on making sure that American consumers have 311 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,679 Speaker 3: the ability to have a little extra money at the 312 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:26,520 Speaker 3: end of the month, and that has meant working really 313 00:20:26,560 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 3: hard to get what we're very distorted high prices at 314 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 3: the pump down very substantially, and that's what we're seeing. 315 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:39,680 Speaker 3: We're seeing gas prices at the pump below three dollars 316 00:20:39,760 --> 00:20:44,879 Speaker 3: in most parts of America. So those two things are 317 00:20:45,040 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 3: both important to the President, and I think we are 318 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:49,760 Speaker 3: seeing real progress on both. 319 00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:54,200 Speaker 2: So in terms of things that Americans really care about. 320 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:57,359 Speaker 2: I mean, one of those has to be housing, and 321 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 2: we have seen various metrics of housing affordability really decline 322 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:03,360 Speaker 2: in the past. 323 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 4: Couple of years. 324 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:08,320 Speaker 2: And there is a broader concern that with interest rates still, 325 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 2: you know, relatively high, that you are going to start 326 00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:14,679 Speaker 2: to see capacity slow and there is I guess this 327 00:21:14,840 --> 00:21:19,719 Speaker 2: tension between keeping rates high to bring down inflation and 328 00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 2: also encouraging more supply of housing so that ultimately that 329 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,600 Speaker 2: can be more affordable. What can the administration do when 330 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,119 Speaker 2: it comes to that particular tension. 331 00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:35,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, so you're exactly right. Making housing more affordable is 332 00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:41,560 Speaker 3: central to so many Americans, whether they be first time 333 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 3: aspirational home buyers or whether that is people who are renting. 334 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:55,880 Speaker 3: Bringing down the costs of housing for Americans is really important. Now. 335 00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 3: The good news is we have actually seen mortgage rates 336 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,720 Speaker 3: come down about one and a half percentage point just 337 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,879 Speaker 3: in the last few months on the back of the 338 00:22:05,920 --> 00:22:08,760 Speaker 3: really good inflation data that we've been seeing. So that's 339 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:13,400 Speaker 3: very encouraging. But the President also has a very forward 340 00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 3: leaning agenda there to ensure that there are many more 341 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:25,240 Speaker 3: affordable units. We have been supporting tax credits that would 342 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 3: lead to about one point two million additional affordable homes 343 00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:36,320 Speaker 3: and a second tax credit that would mean about five 344 00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:40,760 Speaker 3: hundred thousand more affordable homes for first time home buyers. 345 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 3: The President has proposed relief for first generation home buyers 346 00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 3: and renters to help lower costs, and I think we 347 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:54,520 Speaker 3: really are going to be pushing hard on Congress to 348 00:22:54,880 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 3: get those policies done. Congress, the Republican House in particular, 349 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:05,600 Speaker 3: has not supported a lot of improvements on affordable housing, 350 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 3: but we're going to continue working really hard. And additionally, 351 00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 3: we're trying to incentivize changes in local zoning policies in 352 00:23:14,800 --> 00:23:19,840 Speaker 3: a lot of cases near transit hubs. By providing incentives 353 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 3: with transit dollars, we're getting localities to unlock areas for 354 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 3: more dense housing, and we think that'll make a really 355 00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:31,800 Speaker 3: big difference over time as well. In the final thing 356 00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 3: I'd just say is that with office vacancy rates being 357 00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,120 Speaker 3: a bit higher in some downtown areas, we've also got 358 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:59,120 Speaker 3: some programs to encourage office to residential conversions of downtown areas. 359 00:24:01,720 --> 00:24:05,440 Speaker 1: You mentioned zoning, particularly the constraints around housing near transit. 360 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:08,520 Speaker 1: It's sort of something that I've been thinking about a 361 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:10,159 Speaker 1: lot of people are talking about you know, there was 362 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:13,560 Speaker 1: a CNN report that the White House was frustrated by 363 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,399 Speaker 1: the lack of tangible things the President can point to 364 00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,360 Speaker 1: on the campaign trail that said, you know, we built this, 365 00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:23,320 Speaker 1: or the clear evidence of these bills turning into physical things. 366 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,440 Speaker 1: And I'm not going to ask you to comment on 367 00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:29,159 Speaker 1: press reports, but I am curious if you think that 368 00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: this is a tension between the Industrial Policy Act, Inflation 369 00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,679 Speaker 1: Reduction Act CHIPS policies designed to get more factories on 370 00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 1: the ground, and whether there's still things that need to 371 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 1: be done on the local side to make it easier 372 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,560 Speaker 1: to break ground on new construction. 373 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,400 Speaker 3: So two separate really important points that you're making. One 374 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:54,560 Speaker 3: is we do need localities to create changes in zoning, 375 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 3: and so we have a pro housing grant program, which 376 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:03,320 Speaker 3: is first of its kind, that provides those kinds of 377 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:08,399 Speaker 3: incentives to help those communities that do remove barriers to 378 00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:13,040 Speaker 3: housing production so that they get support for that. And 379 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:16,000 Speaker 3: we have a similar kind of program using Department of 380 00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 3: Transportation transit funding. On the side of clean energy and 381 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 3: ships investments and infrastructure investments there too, a lot of 382 00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:33,159 Speaker 3: attention has been given to permitting to accelerate the ability 383 00:25:33,200 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 3: to make those investments by having a much more streamlined 384 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:40,720 Speaker 3: review at the federal level that brings together all the 385 00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 3: agencies in a streamlined process rather than going through what 386 00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:50,600 Speaker 3: in previous administrations was kind of a laborious agency by 387 00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 3: agency review that in many cases took very many years. 388 00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 3: So we are looking for kind of game changing mechanisms 389 00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:04,439 Speaker 3: to make that permitting process easier while still respecting the 390 00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:08,119 Speaker 3: really important equities of local stakeholders. 391 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 2: So Janet Yellen, now Treasury Secretary, formerly at the Fed, 392 00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 2: of course very similar to your career history, felt comfortable 393 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:22,160 Speaker 2: enough with the economic data last week to basically declare 394 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 2: that this looks a lot like a soft landing. After 395 00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 2: many years, or I should say, a couple years of 396 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,119 Speaker 2: worrying about the potential for a recession hard landing, it 397 00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 2: feels like we're on the right path. What are you 398 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,600 Speaker 2: and the Biden administration looking at in terms of benchmarking 399 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 2: your success and how much left there is to do 400 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,640 Speaker 2: on things like inflation. 401 00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 3: So we are really pleased with how well the economy 402 00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:56,919 Speaker 3: has performed. A hunderd four percent unemployment rate for twenty 403 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,640 Speaker 3: three months in a row, another two point seven million 404 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 3: jobs created over the last year alone, fourteen point three 405 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 3: since the beginning of President Biden's time in office, and 406 00:27:08,960 --> 00:27:13,880 Speaker 3: inflation that has come down now to the two percent 407 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:18,520 Speaker 3: range core inflation over the six the last six months, 408 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 3: most forecasters just said that couldn't be done. I mean, 409 00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:26,239 Speaker 3: if you look at the forecasters a year ago, there 410 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 3: was a lot of recession calls and a lot of 411 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,400 Speaker 3: those forecasters saying you couldn't get inflation as far down 412 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:37,480 Speaker 3: as it is today without seeing a lot of unemployment. 413 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:42,120 Speaker 3: That has not happened, and that again is because we 414 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 3: were very focused on the supply side of the economy 415 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 3: and the President wanted to support the recovery rather than 416 00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:53,120 Speaker 3: withdraw support. So in terms of on a go forward basis, 417 00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:58,320 Speaker 3: you know, we're going to continue our work because too 418 00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 3: many things are still too expensive for Americans. We talked 419 00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,399 Speaker 3: a little bit about healthcare. We've got a really robust 420 00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:10,359 Speaker 3: agenda to bring down prescription drug costs. We talked about 421 00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,199 Speaker 3: housing affordability. That's going to be a major focus at 422 00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 3: the president in the months ahead, and we are going 423 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:21,840 Speaker 3: to continue calling out corporations who are not passing along 424 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:27,160 Speaker 3: cost savings to consumers, as well as those who are 425 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:31,760 Speaker 3: pricing in ways that are deceptive and lead to bigger 426 00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,840 Speaker 3: bills at the end of the purchase process that consume. 427 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,800 Speaker 3: Then consumers were led to belief. So our work is 428 00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 3: not done. We are going to continue fighting on the 429 00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 3: app consumers. 430 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 1: To lower costs LAOL BRAINERD, thank you so much for 431 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,240 Speaker 1: coming on odd Lots. Really appreciate your. 432 00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:52,200 Speaker 3: Time, Appreciate being on the tow Thank you, Thank you 433 00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:52,640 Speaker 3: so much. 434 00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:53,200 Speaker 1: Thanks Loud. 435 00:28:53,200 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 4: That was great, Joe. 436 00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:10,280 Speaker 2: I liked your oil production question and the idea that 437 00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 2: if Trump was still in office and US domestic oil 438 00:29:13,200 --> 00:29:16,280 Speaker 2: production was at a record, he would be tweeting it NonStop. 439 00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 4: He'd be tweeting about stocks too. 440 00:29:17,960 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 1: He would be tweeting about stocks. Tracy, by the way, 441 00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:24,520 Speaker 1: is praising me for that oil question because she says 442 00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 1: I took her joke, So I want all odd LATS 443 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,640 Speaker 1: listeners should know that that was originally Tracy's joke about 444 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,160 Speaker 1: Trump tweeting the oil production charts. But actually, I mean, 445 00:29:33,200 --> 00:29:35,720 Speaker 1: like I did find it interesting, like here's the number 446 00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 1: one driver or a huge driver of headline disinflation, one 447 00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 1: of the most salient prices. But it's interesting that, like 448 00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 1: you know, on this idea of like, well do we 449 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:49,360 Speaker 1: want to see even more US oil US liquids production. 450 00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,440 Speaker 1: The inclination was to talk more about the clean energy investments. 451 00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:55,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, you can see why it might be 452 00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,360 Speaker 2: a sensitive topic for the Biden administration, given that their 453 00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,040 Speaker 2: platform or you know, going into the election, was very 454 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:05,280 Speaker 2: much about clean energy and moving away from oil. But 455 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,280 Speaker 2: then we saw prices spike, and obviously there was pressure 456 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:11,360 Speaker 2: from consumers to bring those down again, and so kind 457 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:12,680 Speaker 2: of a tightrope there. 458 00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 4: The other thing I thought was. 459 00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:19,360 Speaker 2: Really interesting was the very very like clear and targeted 460 00:30:19,400 --> 00:30:24,840 Speaker 2: discussion of companies price gouging. And that seems like such 461 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,720 Speaker 2: a tricky one to me, because again, the American political 462 00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:32,160 Speaker 2: model or economic model is sort of all about, you know, 463 00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,760 Speaker 2: make as much money as you can as long as 464 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,960 Speaker 2: it's legal. But that seems to be a point of 465 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:42,120 Speaker 2: tension or angst among the domestic population, given what's happened 466 00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:44,400 Speaker 2: the past couple of years, and so it's really interesting 467 00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,720 Speaker 2: to me to see how the administration actually goes about 468 00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:53,520 Speaker 2: targeting that particular behavior. And I guess they can sort 469 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,200 Speaker 2: of nibble at the edges on things like insulin or 470 00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:00,640 Speaker 2: junk fees, like there are concrete things they can do 471 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:03,080 Speaker 2: but how are you going to tell a big consumer 472 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,920 Speaker 2: goods company to reduce its profit margins and pass on 473 00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:08,520 Speaker 2: cost savings to consumers. 474 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:12,040 Speaker 1: I guess you'd sort of the the moral suasion aspect, 475 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:15,200 Speaker 1: the tweeting about it, pressing about it. But there aren't 476 00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 1: a ton of like policy levers really that it's clear 477 00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:21,680 Speaker 1: the administration could take. I mean, going back, I mean, 478 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:24,200 Speaker 1: I did think it was interesting her answer to your 479 00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,880 Speaker 1: question about like, why has why is there so much 480 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,440 Speaker 1: frustration because we started the conversation about, Okay, this does 481 00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:34,840 Speaker 1: look like a very impressive labor market, impressive rebound disinflation 482 00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:38,680 Speaker 1: over the last year or so without any weakening of 483 00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 1: the labor market, and I think her answer is like, yeah, 484 00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 1: I mean it was a you know, it is a 485 00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:49,720 Speaker 1: crazy three or four years between everything really, including the inflation, 486 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:52,880 Speaker 1: and so this idea of maybe maybe it just needs 487 00:31:52,880 --> 00:31:54,600 Speaker 1: to give it time to put some of this in 488 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:57,840 Speaker 1: the rearview mirror before there's like and actually just today 489 00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,920 Speaker 1: recording this on Monday, January, you know, there was a 490 00:32:00,920 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 1: New York Fed survey that said that seemed to indicate 491 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,400 Speaker 1: people feeling better about their finances, highest in a couple 492 00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 1: of years. So maybe that's the case. Maybe it's just 493 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:11,160 Speaker 1: a matter of time and we'll see things like you 494 00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:14,280 Speaker 1: mission consumer conference board turn higher. 495 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 2: Lags in consumer sentiment. That seem to be the argument there, 496 00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,840 Speaker 2: like long and variable lags in people just taking time 497 00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 2: to digest all the changes that have happened, which kind 498 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:26,440 Speaker 2: of makes some sense. But I still have questions about 499 00:32:26,440 --> 00:32:29,640 Speaker 2: the role of I guess, partisanship in some of those surveys. 500 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:33,640 Speaker 2: And you know, if the economy got even better, which 501 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:37,040 Speaker 2: maybe is kind of a tall order after what we've seen, 502 00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:41,240 Speaker 2: but would some of that like partisanship, start to go 503 00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,960 Speaker 2: away or would there still be a significant chunk of 504 00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:47,680 Speaker 2: America that like always feels angry or always feels that 505 00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,960 Speaker 2: things are heading in the wrong direction. That's an interesting 506 00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:51,600 Speaker 2: question to me. 507 00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,160 Speaker 4: But for now, shall we leave it there? 508 00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:54,920 Speaker 1: Let's leave it there. 509 00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:55,400 Speaker 4: Okay. 510 00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:58,400 Speaker 2: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast. 511 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:02,000 Speaker 2: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me at Tracy Alloway. 512 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,640 Speaker 1: And I'm Joe Wisenthal. You can follow me at the Stalwart. 513 00:33:04,920 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 1: Follow our producers Carmen Rodriguez at Carmen Arman, dash Ol 514 00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 1: Bennett at Dashbod and Keil Brooks at kel Brooks Thank 515 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 1: you to our producer Moses On. For more Oddlots content, 516 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,920 Speaker 1: go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd Lots, where we 517 00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,480 Speaker 1: have blog transcripts and the newsletter, and you can check 518 00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:24,280 Speaker 1: twenty four to seven with fellow listeners in the discord 519 00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 1: Discord dot gg slash off. 520 00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 2: And if you enjoy Odd Lots then please leave us 521 00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,600 Speaker 2: a positive review on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening.