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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Hello and welcome to another episode of The Odd Lots Podcast.

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Speaker 3: I'm Joe Wisenthal and I'm Tracy Alloway.

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Speaker 2: Tracy, it's almost here. Yeah, we're almost to the November

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Speaker 2: FED decision.

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Speaker 3: Okay, we are recording this on October thirtieth. Do you

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Speaker 3: think by this time next week we'll actually know who's won?

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Speaker 3: On the Wednesday, the day after.

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Speaker 2: You didn't continue my joke about how next week is

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Speaker 2: the FED decision. You just went straight to the obvious. Sorry,

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Speaker 2: that's okay, we're all fried. Obviously.

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Speaker 3: Payrolls data on Friday.

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Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, so by the time this episode comes out,

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Speaker 2: payrolls will have been out. But yes, there is a

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Speaker 2: lot going on right now. But one thing that's happening

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Speaker 2: is the election.

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Speaker 3: I can't keep track anymore.

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Speaker 2: There's too much when people are listening to this. We're

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Speaker 2: gonna get out before the election. But yes, we may

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Speaker 2: know very soon who the next president of the United

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Speaker 2: States is.

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Speaker 3: But whatever happens, whatever happens next week with the FED

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Speaker 3: or with the election, it's clear that Biden is no

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Speaker 3: longer going to be president, right.

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Speaker 2: And I think it's like a real moment. We should

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Speaker 2: talk about that because I think to your point you

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Speaker 2: said it exactly, we may get a democratic presidency, Uder Harris,

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Speaker 2: we may get a Trump presidency, but we've done so

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Speaker 2: many episodes in the last four years, particularly around twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two to twenty twenty one. Others might call it

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Speaker 2: a sort of post neoliberal turn, right, this sort of

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Speaker 2: industrial policy.

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Speaker 3: Turn of industrial policy, new supply side economic.

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Speaker 2: New supply side economics. And I don't know, Like, first

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Speaker 2: of all, I don't know what the legacy of any

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Speaker 2: of these programs will be. It it's too soon to

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Speaker 2: say are we going to be like great at making

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Speaker 2: chips and batteries and solar panels and all that stuff.

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Speaker 2: We also don't know if anyone will talk about this

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Speaker 2: stuff at all in the next administration. Was it just

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Speaker 2: like a one or two year thing where people got

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Speaker 2: excited about what I would say, policy adventurism, use this

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Speaker 2: effort to expand the care economy, childcare that's sort of fizzled,

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Speaker 2: but there's still maybe interested in that. But I don't know, like,

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Speaker 2: regardless of who the next president is, whether we'll see

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Speaker 2: more continuation of these ideas or whether we'll go back

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Speaker 2: to something that just sort of looks more like, I

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Speaker 2: don't know, something people would call normal.

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Speaker 3: I kind of like the idea that we went through

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Speaker 3: like a teenage experimental policy phase. That's the funny way

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Speaker 3: of looking at it. But you're absolutely right. I think

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Speaker 3: we should talk about what could happen to all of

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Speaker 3: this in the next four years and beyond.

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Speaker 2: Totally Well, I'm really excited to say because coming to

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Speaker 2: this big moment, we have the perfect guest. We're going

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Speaker 2: to be speaking with, Ezra Klein. He is the host

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Speaker 2: of the Ezra Kleines Show at the New York Times. Columnist,

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Speaker 2: famous journalist, done extraordinary things. Everyone knows his name, so

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Speaker 2: no need to add too much of an introduction. But Ezra,

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Speaker 2: thank you so much for coming back on Odd Lots.

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Speaker 4: Thank you for having me back on one of my

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Speaker 4: favorite shows. And I do want to say that I

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Speaker 4: like your joke at the beginning, Joe, I thought that

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Speaker 4: was funny.

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Speaker 3: You caught it.

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Speaker 2: I appreciate it. No, it's okay, I said, it's been.

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Speaker 4: It brought me back to the self conscious nerdery of

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Speaker 4: the work block days, jokes that are really about how

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Speaker 4: boring we are. It's it's a beautiful form.

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Speaker 2: The most important thing still the FED decision and the

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Speaker 2: job support. Look, if I'm going to be honest, first

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Speaker 2: of all, I sort of admire political journalists or people

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Speaker 2: will really pay attention to this stuff because a lot

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Speaker 2: of it hurts my brain. So like the fact to

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Speaker 2: like go in and every day talk about it and

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Speaker 2: pay attention is something that and to take it seriously

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Speaker 2: is something I often find myself not having the stomach

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Speaker 2: to do. And so I'm probably like a little bit

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Speaker 2: less informed on the election than I should be. But

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Speaker 2: some of this stuff, what we call Bidenomics, IRA, the chips, ACKed,

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Speaker 2: et cetera. Is this important to U Kamala Harris? Is

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Speaker 2: this part of something that she talks about and sort

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Speaker 2: of conveys on the trail.

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Speaker 4: It's a good question. Any candidate, any politician, has the

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Speaker 4: policy areas that really move them, the things that they

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Speaker 4: think about and talk to people about when they're not

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Speaker 4: on the clock, so to speak. And Harris has a

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Speaker 4: bunch of those. She is amazing and committed and passionate

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Speaker 4: about abortion rights. She's in general very interested in rights,

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Speaker 4: speaking broadly right, She's a lawyer, a former da an

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Speaker 4: ag economics that I've done a fair amount of reporting

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Speaker 4: on this is just not the thing that she has

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Speaker 4: been highly attracted to across her career. So in a

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Speaker 4: way that is a little bit unusual if you have

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Speaker 4: been involved in Democratic Party politics for a long time.

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Speaker 4: She is coming in without being highly associated with one

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Speaker 4: or the other schools of thought. She's obviously been in

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Speaker 4: the Biden administration, but whereas Biden had incredibly clear economic

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Speaker 4: lanes and ideas in the Obama administration. It's worth remembering

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Speaker 4: that he brought on Jared Bernstein as his chief economist,

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Speaker 4: which was an unusual move. And Bernstein, who is of

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Speaker 4: course now on the Council of Economic Advisors, but he

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Speaker 4: was understood then as a quite heterodox economist, somebody who

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Speaker 4: is holding like the left flank of that against you know,

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Speaker 4: Larry Summers and Jason Furman and Peter Orzag and so

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Speaker 4: Biden was sort of associated with this more trade skeptical,

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Speaker 4: you know, lunch pale economics, and Harris isn't really she's

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Speaker 4: not associated with like the theories of the Inflation Production Act,

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Speaker 4: although there's no reason to think she doesn't support them,

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Speaker 4: not highly associated with like the Chips and Science Act,

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Speaker 4: the sense of what moves her is not that well known. Now.

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Speaker 4: One thing she has brought to the ticket, which we

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Speaker 4: had not heard before, is a real central focus, at

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Speaker 4: least rhetorically on housing supply, which makes sense. She's a

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Speaker 4: San Francisco politician, the sort of Yimbi movement and the

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Speaker 4: Democratic Party has gotten a lot bigger. The sense that

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Speaker 4: housing is the price right at a time when the

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Speaker 4: inflation rate has come down that you could really target,

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Speaker 4: and that it's at the center of a lot of

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Speaker 4: policy pathology in the country. I think that's real. So

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Speaker 4: she's bringing that. But yeah, the sense of she's not

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Speaker 4: running as like the inheritor of the industrial policy legacy.

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Speaker 3: Well, she does talk a lot about the opportunity economy

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Speaker 3: and doing stuff to reduce inequality and things like that.

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Speaker 3: Is that just a rebranding of Bidenomics or do you

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Speaker 3: get the sense that it's actually a departure.

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Speaker 4: The opportunity economy has both never felt to me like

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Speaker 4: it's Bidenomics, although I do want to say I don't

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Speaker 4: think the biden administration has done a great job explaining

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Speaker 4: or selling what Bidenomics is either, and it's never been

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Speaker 4: one hundred percent clear to me. How much that's like

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Speaker 4: the idea from her team that she liked, versus how

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Speaker 4: committed she is to it. So, when Harris was in

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Speaker 4: the Senate, her big economic proposal was a significantly expanded

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Speaker 4: child tax credit, which she goes sponsored along with Senator

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Speaker 4: Michael Bennett, Senator Corey Booker. There were others on that

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Speaker 4: bill as well, and I think that some of her

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Speaker 4: economic thinking reflects sort of where Democrats were then. Right,

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Speaker 4: The opportunity economy is, I think closer in the way

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Speaker 4: it gets talked about to this sort of anti inequality push,

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Speaker 4: the sense to it that we should have bigger cash

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Speaker 4: transfer to young fanse Right, she's talked about having a

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Speaker 4: six thousand dollars credit in the first year of a

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Speaker 4: child's life. But I don't find the opportunity economy. I've

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Speaker 4: read her speeches, I've read her eighty page policy book

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Speaker 4: is something I can get my arms around. Every politician

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Speaker 4: says a support opportunity, so it doesn't quite tell you

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Speaker 4: what she doesn't support. Right, The key question with all

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Speaker 4: these people is which fights are you willing to pick?

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Speaker 4: So when Biden comes in in twenty twenty one, his

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Speaker 4: team is telling me they're saying publicly, we are going

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Speaker 4: to be the full employment presidency. Right. This is Jared

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Speaker 4: Bernstein had co written a book with Steen Baker about

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Speaker 4: full employment. They're going to run the economy hot. They

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Speaker 4: are going to spend They're going to make sure that

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Speaker 4: the wage gains we've been seeing for some years reach

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Speaker 4: the workers who they need to reach. That's true. You know,

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Speaker 4: even as they're dealing with the pandemic, they are going

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Speaker 4: to make sure that they don't undershoot on stimulus. Right.

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Speaker 4: This is a team very much forged by the Obama era,

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Speaker 4: to some gree the Trump era, in which the problem

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Speaker 4: was too little demand and the problem was that even

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Speaker 4: growth was not lasting for long enough to reach more

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Speaker 4: marginalized workers who weren't seeing you know, low income wage gains,

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Speaker 4: wage gains for black and Hispanic workers. So they come

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Speaker 4: in very clear on which mistakes they are not going

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Speaker 4: to make. They are willing to run the economy hot

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Speaker 4: with the risks that that might entail, which I end

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Speaker 4: up coming true, in order to not see the kind

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Speaker 4: of weak recovery that we've seen before. I would like

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Speaker 4: to know that answer for Harris and her team. Harris

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Speaker 4: and her advisors not to say that we have to

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Speaker 4: know it this second, because it is a really unusual

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Speaker 4: thing to have to create a national presidential campaign from

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Speaker 4: a standing start. But the opportunity economy thing, it doesn't

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Speaker 4: answer that question for me, who is Harrison not going

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Speaker 4: to be Which factions is she not aligning with in

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Speaker 4: the way that the Biden folks were not aligning with,

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Speaker 4: like the Larry Summers faction of the Democratic Party. That

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Speaker 4: question is open.

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Speaker 2: So it occurred to me, you know, if we're talking

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Speaker 2: about Biden nomics, and you mentioned, you know, Biden has

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Speaker 2: long been advised by Jared Bernstein, who maybe a little

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Speaker 2: bit more sympathy to some of the heterodots thinking in macro.

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Speaker 2: So there was the element of the fact that Biden

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Speaker 2: domics existed because Biden won and maybe this is how

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Speaker 2: he views the economy. But it's a little bit of

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Speaker 2: an incomplete story because so even though I lumped the

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Speaker 2: Chips Act into it, that was a bipartisan thing, and

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Speaker 2: there was interest in doing something on semiconductors before Biden

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Speaker 2: even came into office, I believe. And then you know,

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Speaker 2: you mentioned the Trump Eureau, which if we're talking about

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Speaker 2: some sort of turn or rethink on trade. I mean

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Speaker 2: it clearly started more under Trump than Biden. Why now,

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Speaker 2: like how much of it was? Like this is what

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Speaker 2: Biden is into, This is what Biden and his advisors

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Speaker 2: are into, versus there is some moment happening in the

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Speaker 2: US economy or US society that created this political impulse

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Speaker 2: to push in new ways.

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Speaker 4: I think this is a great question and an important

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Speaker 4: way to think about all these figures. So you could

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Speaker 4: ask what the principle in this case, the president or

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Speaker 4: the presidential candidate thinks. Then there's a question of what

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Speaker 4: their coalition thinks. Right, if it's Kamala Harris and a

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Speaker 4: Democratic House and a Democratic Senate, then what the Democratic

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Speaker 4: House and Democratic Senate want to do? What is happening

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Speaker 4: at the center of the coalition we think of as

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Speaker 4: a democratic party becomes really really important. Then there's a

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Speaker 4: question also of what kind of institutional power structure they're

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Speaker 4: going to face. Right, if it's Kamala Harris and our

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Speaker 4: Republican House and our Republican Senate, well, where the center

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Speaker 4: of the Democratic party is then matters actually less than what,

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Speaker 4: if anything, is in the Venn diagram between Kamala Harris

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Speaker 4: and Mike Johnson, and all of those are very just

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Speaker 4: different conditions which we should talk about and think about differently.

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Speaker 4: But I do agree strongly with something you're agenna, Joe,

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Speaker 4: which is there is a shift in the technonic plates

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Speaker 4: of economic policy, of policy broadly. So I'm very influenced

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Speaker 4: by this historian named Gary Gristal. He wrote a great

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Speaker 4: book called The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order.

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Speaker 4: Before that, he was known for working on the Rise

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Speaker 4: and Fall of the New Deal Order. And he's got

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Speaker 4: this whole idea about orders, orders being these structuring agreements

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Speaker 4: between the two parties, the shape what is taken for

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Speaker 4: granted in American politics and policy and what is not.

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Speaker 4: So he sort of describes this New Deal Order, which

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Speaker 4: is not just the new deals we think about it

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Speaker 4: under FDR, but it lasts from like nineteen thirty ish,

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Speaker 4: you know, when FDR comes in thirty two, to the

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Speaker 4: nineteen seventies when it sort of dies under stagflation and

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Speaker 4: the Vietnam War. But the New Deal Order is very

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Speaker 4: importantly concretized when Dwight Eisenhower takes control of the Republican Party,

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Speaker 4: not Robert Taft, and Eisenhower brings a new Deal into

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Speaker 4: something Republicans now support too, in order to fend off

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Speaker 4: the Soviet Union. They neither sort of neoliberal order, you know,

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Speaker 4: we think of Ronald Reagan and then later Bill Clinton.

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Speaker 4: With the era of big government is over. There's a

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Speaker 4: lot of deregulation, a lot of support of free trade,

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Speaker 4: a lot of talk about governmental inefficiency, moving to markets,

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Speaker 4: moving towards outsourcing, much more focus on the individual, and

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Speaker 4: that order sort of dies amidst the financial crisis. And

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Speaker 4: I do think Trump is a disruptive force who creates

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Speaker 4: some of the shape of an order that is emerging,

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Speaker 4: but we don't know which party will control it or

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Speaker 4: exactly what its structurre will be. But it's clearly feels

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Speaker 4: very differently about manufacturing and production. I think in the

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Speaker 4: way that those two orders were both related, first to

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Speaker 4: the power of the Soviet Union in the New Deal order,

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Speaker 4: and then it's weakening in its fall in the neoliberal order.

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Speaker 4: I think China is the great pressure on our politics

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Speaker 4: and has been for some time. Trump talks about that

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Speaker 4: very explicitly, But it is surprising then that Biden comes

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Speaker 4: in and doesn't revert to where Barack Obama was on China.

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Speaker 4: Biden goes further than Donald Trump. He goes further than

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Speaker 4: Donald Trump on gating technologies. He adds on more tariffs,

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Speaker 4: he keeps the Trump tariffs, and he uses China as

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Speaker 4: a spur of passings like the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill the

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Speaker 4: Chips and Science Act, which are both very explicitly framed

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Speaker 4: as bills to help American compete with China in terms

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Speaker 4: of infrastructure and scientific development and semiconductor manufacturing. And of

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Speaker 4: course the IRA has a lot of bi American and

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Speaker 4: on shoring provisions. So I think China is a big

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Speaker 4: part of this. I think that there is a growing

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Speaker 4: sense that there are critical technologies like we just simply

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Speaker 4: need to make here, or at least have our friends make.

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Speaker 4: I think inflation and the broader affordability crisis heavily created

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Speaker 4: a sense that whatever was going on before, we were

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Speaker 4: good at making the price of consumer goods cheap, but

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Speaker 4: actually not good at making the fundamentals of a life

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Speaker 4: cheap right healthcare and education and home elder care, things

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Speaker 4: like that. And so there's something happening, right. It's Trump,

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Speaker 4: it's Biden, it's Harris, it's both coalitions. You know, they're

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Speaker 4: fighting over it. They don't have the same view of it.

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Speaker 4: But it's just a wild thing to me to watch,

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Speaker 4: you know, Donald Trump running saying he, you know, helps

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Speaker 4: save the Affordable Care Act, Right, Like, the locuses of

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Speaker 4: polarization are different. Now. We are polarized over the system itself, right, elections, democracy,

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Speaker 4: the freedom of the press kind of thing. But there's

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Speaker 4: actually a huge amount of ferment and confusion and uncertainty

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Speaker 4: about the policy consensus and like what is in and

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Speaker 4: outside of the things members of Congress might agree on

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Speaker 4: or negotiate over.

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Speaker 3: Since you brought up China, it is kind of fascinating

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Speaker 3: to me that, like so much policy on both sides

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Speaker 3: of the aisle is framed in terms of very intense

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Speaker 3: competition with China or a looming threat from China.

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Speaker 1: Do you think the.

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Speaker 3: Policy evolution of the past eight years now would have

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Speaker 3: been possible without an external enemy to sort of catalyze action.

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Speaker 4: I don't, and I think this is a normal thing

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Speaker 4: for politics. I think we actually really underestimate how important

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Speaker 4: the external antagonist or comparator is to us, because it

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Speaker 4: isn't just the external enemy. I mean that turned towards

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Speaker 4: China as a real antagonist under Trump, that's been very,

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Speaker 4: very important. But if you go back a few years

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Speaker 4: before that, you can just find members of Congress and

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Speaker 4: members with politically talking constantly about how our system is

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Speaker 4: gridlocked and it's a photocracy and we don't get anything

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Speaker 4: done and we can't build anything, and look at our

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Speaker 4: shitty airports, while over there in China, look how fast

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Speaker 4: we're moving, Look how much they're doing, Look how big

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Speaker 4: they're great. Their infrastructure is like, Look how effectively they're

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Speaker 4: building their manufacturing capabilities. Look how competent their government seems.

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Speaker 4: We don't talk about it in exactly those terms, but

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Speaker 4: I have come to believe, and you know, I was

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Speaker 4: on the show before to talk about abundance in this

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Speaker 4: sort of move towards ideas about building in American politics.

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Speaker 4: I think I'm part of this too, that I think

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Speaker 4: that there's been a real pressure on people in American

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Speaker 4: politics to think about what does it mean that America

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Speaker 4: has gotten so bad at building, at building public infrastructure,

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Speaker 4: at building homes, at building mass transit, at you know,

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Speaker 4: manufacturing critical things. And that comes from the pressure of

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Speaker 4: Chinese competition, right, not just Chinese sort of where it's

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Speaker 4: moved to the slightly darker form of competition. But be

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Speaker 4: even before that, this sense that we seem to be

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Speaker 4: able to innovate but not build, and they seem to

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Speaker 4: be able to build. I think John Arno will put

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Speaker 4: it this way, but not necessarily innovate, and you actually

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Speaker 4: need both.

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Speaker 2: This is actually a good pivot because right we talked

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Speaker 2: in the beginning about what might be the different emphasis

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Speaker 2: during a Harris administration. Obviously there's a very good chance

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Speaker 2: that we get a Trump administration. There's been noises obviously

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Speaker 2: about gutting the Inflation Reduction Act in some ways, but

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Speaker 2: I think it's ambiguous. There's a lot of jobs in

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Speaker 2: Trump areas, red areas that would be gone I think

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Speaker 2: without Inflation Reduction Act money, So I think imagine that

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Speaker 2: complicates the politics of that. And then furthermore, there is

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Speaker 2: what I would call maybe like a conservative or Republican

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Speaker 2: or right wing industrial strategy. There's obviously the China antagonism,

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Speaker 2: maybe much more explicitly about defense, tech, et cetera. But

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Speaker 2: how would you characterize how some of these things morph

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Speaker 2: during a Trump administration.

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Speaker 4: I genuinely don't think anybody knows at all, And I've

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Speaker 4: been thinking about this a lot Over the past couple

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Speaker 4: of months, as I've been having a number of people

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Speaker 4: on the American First Movement as they like to call it,

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Speaker 4: on my show, and one thing I've noticed is that

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Speaker 4: the universal sense that Donald Trump, in his seventy eighth

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Speaker 4: year of life, running for his second term as president,

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Speaker 4: still doesn't really know what he believes or you cannot

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Speaker 4: know what he believes on any number of subjects, creates

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Speaker 4: an immense sense that he can be moved and shaped right,

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Speaker 4: that the competition going on behind him to wield governing

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Speaker 4: power in his administration is immense. I just had vivig

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Speaker 4: Ramaswami on the show, and I was so struck by

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Speaker 4: him really trying to push Trump and why I call

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Speaker 4: more traditionally conservative direction, right, you know, don't try to

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Speaker 4: take over the administrative state, try to get rid of it,

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Speaker 4: shutter these agencies. And he really sees Elon Musk as

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Speaker 4: an ally in that effort, so you can call it.

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Speaker 4: There's like this JD. Vance wing that is more national populace.

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Speaker 4: And then all of a sudden, here's like Elon Musk

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Speaker 4: and these like right wing billionaires and they have Trump's here,

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Speaker 4: and maybe what they want is something a little bit

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Speaker 4: more in between. In many ways, it looks more like

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Speaker 4: what other Republicans were doing with a much more nationalistic edge.

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Speaker 4: You know, whenever I talk to people about Trump's tariffs,

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Speaker 4: they say, has proposed the you know, universal Tarriffy like, Oh,

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Speaker 4: He's not going to do that. Trump's a negotiator, right,

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Speaker 4: He's just saying that to get maximal leverage in order

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Speaker 4: to run a really good negotiation. I mean, maybe maybe not.

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Speaker 4: You know, Project twenty twenty five is an internally contradictory document,

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Speaker 4: and then there are other documents floating around like it

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Speaker 4: that are contradictory to that. You know, Mike Johnson's just

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Speaker 4: said he would repeal Obamacare. I think that's probably unlikely,

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Speaker 4: But the idea that they might pull money out of

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Speaker 4: the IRA, it doesn't seem unlikely to me. There's going

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Speaker 4: to be a huge tax cliff everybody's going to have

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Speaker 4: to deal with in twenty twenty five, as you know,

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Speaker 4: trillions of dollars of Trump tax cuts come ready to expire,

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Speaker 4: and particularly if Democrats have any amount of power, there's

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Speaker 4: going to have to be a lot of negotiation with

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Speaker 4: them about what you do about that. It feels to

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Speaker 4: me like, at this point we should be able to

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Speaker 4: say better what Donald Trump will do. And I tend

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Speaker 4: to just take the guy at his word on his

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Speaker 4: policies and talk about the tariffs and what their effect

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Speaker 4: on the economy would be. But I will say that

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Speaker 4: if you're taking his movement on its own terms, that

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Speaker 4: is not how it is spoken about or treated. It

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Speaker 4: is spoken about like almost like it's a parliamentary system,

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Speaker 4: right like Trump will have to form a government and

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Speaker 4: inside the government will be different coalitional partners and they

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Speaker 4: will vy for influence and then eventually we will see

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Speaker 4: what the king does and like that almost more. Maybe

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Speaker 4: it's not parliamentary, maybe it's a monarchy model is much

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Speaker 4: more how everybody over there is acting.

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Speaker 3: It would be pretty funny if like the Senate or

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Speaker 3: the House started throwing paper and like insulting each other

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Speaker 3: the way they do in UK Parliament. I would watch

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Speaker 3: that on CSPAN es. Can we talk about the branding

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Speaker 3: of Bidenomics and you touched on this earlier, but it

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Speaker 3: does feel like the administration to some extent has had

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Speaker 3: difficulty messaging the success of the program, and I think

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Speaker 3: maybe in retrospect, the bet on full employment was isn't

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Speaker 3: the best one. It turns out that Americans really care

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Speaker 3: about inflation more than whether or not their neighbors have jobs.

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Speaker 3: Can you talk to us about that, like, why isn't

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Speaker 3: it resonating more?

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Speaker 4: It's hard for me to know the counterfactual here, right,

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Speaker 4: What if Joe Biden were sixty five years old, possessed

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Speaker 4: of the explanatory and communicative power that Joe Biden had

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Speaker 4: when he was sixty five years old, would he have

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Speaker 4: been able to sell Bidenomics in a different way, particularly

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Speaker 4: given the focusing event of a second presidential campaign. Right

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Speaker 4: when the twenty twelve campaign is happening, Barack Obama for

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Speaker 4: part of that campaign is trailing at Romney. What happens

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Speaker 4: over the course of that campaign when unemployment is quite

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Speaker 4: high by the way, I mean, it's above eight percent

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Speaker 4: for much of that period. What happens in that campaign

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Speaker 4: is that Obama and his team and Bill Clinton at

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Speaker 4: the DNC convention are able to sell the Obama economic record,

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Speaker 4: tell a story about it then, even though the commomy

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Speaker 4: wasn't looking that good yet, was a story of recovery,

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Speaker 4: a story of all that we did and averted, And

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Speaker 4: that storytelling worked Biden just was not able to storytell

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Speaker 4: I mean not during his presidency, I would say, and

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Speaker 4: very much not during his campaign. And so the question

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Speaker 4: of what would have happened if someone had really tried

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Speaker 4: to make the case for Bidenomics, really tried to use

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Speaker 4: the artillery of a presidential campaign, the money, the surrogates,

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Speaker 4: the convention to make that case is hard to know. Obviously,

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Speaker 4: biden ends up stepping aside a party Knight's friend Kamala Harris,

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Speaker 4: and Harris I think in a way that is wise,

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Speaker 4: but is the lower risk path. Also does not try

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Speaker 4: to sell Bidenomics right, does not come in and try

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Speaker 4: to turn around where people are on this right. She

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Speaker 4: talks about what she is going to do to lower prices.

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Speaker 4: She talks about how much oil and gas it has

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Speaker 4: been produced, but she doesn't try to make a giant

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Speaker 4: argument about how Bidenomics has set the structure for not

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Speaker 4: an infrastructure weak but an infrastructure decade or multi decade project,

435
00:21:56,520 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 4: and how we are going to be building factories at

436
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 4: this wild pace, and on and on and on and

437
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,439
Speaker 4: we are just at the beginning, and how much Bidenomics

438
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 4: invested in innovation, and how we are trying to have

439
00:22:06,600 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 4: these industries of the future here, like Bidenomics. I mean,

440
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,960
Speaker 4: if somebody's writing a book that's very much about the

441
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 4: need for liberalism built around building and invention, Bidenomics is

442
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 4: very much built around building an invention. I have my

443
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,119
Speaker 4: places where I wish it to have gone further, or

444
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,560
Speaker 4: I don't think it's doing enough to confront what actually

445
00:22:23,600 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 4: makes it so hard to build an invent in America.

446
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,159
Speaker 4: You know, permitting reform and procurement reform, and you know,

447
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 4: paperwork and bureaucracy and so on. But at its core,

448
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 4: it is really like we're going to make things in

449
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:37,560
Speaker 4: the real world, and then the things we need that

450
00:22:37,600 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 4: we don't yet have, like green hydrogen, we're going to

451
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:42,200
Speaker 4: pump a bunch of money into inventing them, and that's

452
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,080
Speaker 4: going to be the basis of the next generation of

453
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 4: economic prosperity. That is not a story Harris has tried

454
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 4: to tell. Harris has tried to run much more the

455
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 4: way a sort of generic Democrat would. She is not

456
00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 4: wanted and I think again there's probably a lot of

457
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:57,880
Speaker 4: political wisdom in this, but she's not wanted to try

458
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 4: to run as the defender of the biden record. She's

459
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 4: wanted to the extent she can without seeming disloyal. Run

460
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 4: is something new because people are not very happy with

461
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,480
Speaker 4: the Biden record, and she is not herself Joe Biden,

462
00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:11,960
Speaker 4: so she's not actually yoked to it in the way

463
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:12,239
Speaker 4: he is.

464
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 2: This might be actually just another version of the same

465
00:23:16,280 --> 00:23:18,840
Speaker 2: question that Tracy asked. And maybe the answer again is

466
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 2: that the counterfactual would be different if Biden were sixty

467
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 2: five years old. But he appeared at the picket line

468
00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,159
Speaker 2: for GM And you know, you mentioned lunch pail economics,

469
00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 2: which we associate with people taking their lunch pail to

470
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,199
Speaker 2: work in a factory. Specifically, there are a lot of

471
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:40,320
Speaker 2: factories going up, and yet it does not seem that

472
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 2: Biden is particularly popular even among union members. Maybe some

473
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 2: maybe in the counterfactual whatever, certainly not. You know, this

474
00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 2: is that big crisis of the Democratic Party, the white

475
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,160
Speaker 2: working class, et cetera. Is the theory of the case wrong?

476
00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 2: Is the theory that if Biden stands on the picket

477
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 2: lines and does a bunch of stuff to build factory

478
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 2: like that, that will improve the Democrats standing among the

479
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,359
Speaker 2: white working class? Was that never the theory? Is that

480
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,480
Speaker 2: just something that was never actually part of the political calculus.

481
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,040
Speaker 2: Is it just about politics? Like, what do you see

482
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:13,920
Speaker 2: as going on there?

483
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,159
Speaker 4: I think it is hard to say, because again I

484
00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,679
Speaker 4: can't run the counterfactual of like the sixty five year

485
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,479
Speaker 4: old Joe Biden. But I think you have to look

486
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:23,280
Speaker 4: at it and say, the theory doesn't look very good.

487
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,480
Speaker 4: It's not just being on the pickline didn't do that

488
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 4: much for him. They bailed out the teamsters and they didn'

489
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,480
Speaker 4: even get the teams to endorsement. Right, they've directly bailed

490
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 4: out the teamsters. Right, So forget like what you have

491
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 4: to communicate this, You should just be able to communicate

492
00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 4: to the union. Right, we did the thing you wanted

493
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 4: us to do, like, gave your puncher plants a big

494
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 4: help in hand, and the team stress didn't endorse him.

495
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,520
Speaker 4: Part of the loss of the working class for Democrats.

496
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 4: I think democrats always want the loss of the working class,

497
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 4: the white working class, to be about economic materialism. The

498
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 4: answer Democrats want to hear on that, because it is

499
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 4: the answer they would most like to respond to, is

500
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,640
Speaker 4: that you're using these voters because you have strayed too

501
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 4: far from a more progressive Fire and Brimstone class war economics,

502
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 4: and I'm not telling you that's not part of it.

503
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 4: It very well maybe, but it doesn't fit the story

504
00:25:13,359 --> 00:25:15,159
Speaker 4: as we're seeing it very well. I mean, Biden, by

505
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 4: the way, it's way to the left of Bill Clinton,

506
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 4: who did way better with the white working class, and

507
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 4: Joe Biden is Biden is way the left of Michael Ducaucus,

508
00:25:21,760 --> 00:25:24,280
Speaker 4: who also did better among the white working class than

509
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:28,159
Speaker 4: Joe Biden has. And you know, the class realignment or

510
00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:30,000
Speaker 4: de alignment in this country, it has a lot to

511
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,719
Speaker 4: do with culture. It has a lot to do with

512
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,960
Speaker 4: senses of who belongs and who doesn't, with views people

513
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,600
Speaker 4: have on immigration, views that they have on religion. Right,

514
00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 4: you know, identity is very complex, and we are, at

515
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,119
Speaker 4: sort of all level still a much more post materialist

516
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 4: society than the left often wishes. At least our politics

517
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 4: was because honestly, if the politics could just be reduced

518
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 4: down to who is going to do better for the

519
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:56,480
Speaker 4: working class in terms of you know, who's going to

520
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:58,320
Speaker 4: get the tax credits and the tax rebates, and who's

521
00:25:58,320 --> 00:26:00,239
Speaker 4: going to get healthcare? And you know, who is going

522
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,479
Speaker 4: to stand up to big corporations. The Democrats have a really, really,

523
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 4: really good argument, right. I mean, people can always say

524
00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 4: they should move further left, but man, they are really

525
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 4: quite a bit further left than they were a couple

526
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 4: of years ago, and quite a bit further left than

527
00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:14,760
Speaker 4: the Republicans are. But if you look around, it just

528
00:26:14,800 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 4: doesn't actually seem to track that. So maybe you should

529
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 4: do all those things because they are good things to do.

530
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 1: Right.

531
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 4: You should walk the pickline because walking the pickline is

532
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 4: a good thing to do. You should raise the minimum

533
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:27,360
Speaker 4: wage because raising them minium wage is a good thing

534
00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 4: to do. But the sense that you're going to kick

535
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 4: off this policy feedback loop where by being more populist

536
00:26:34,040 --> 00:26:36,959
Speaker 4: in your economics you change who is voting for you

537
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:41,120
Speaker 4: in a dramatic sense, We're just not seeing it, and

538
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 4: I think at this point the burden is on supporters

539
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:46,719
Speaker 4: of this theory to explain, like why we're not seeing

540
00:26:46,760 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 4: it if indeed it works.

541
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 3: We've obviously been focused on domestic issues in this conversation,

542
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 3: but of course the US is the world's biggest economy

543
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 3: and it does not exist in a vacuum. And one

544
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 3: thing I'm curious about is your take on, I guess,

545
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 3: the international legacy of Bidenomics, because to some extent, you know,

546
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 3: the emphasis on building things in America, building out strategically

547
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,880
Speaker 3: important industries and things like that, it has generated tensions

548
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 3: with some allies, like in Europe.

549
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 4: You know, this is a place where I think it's

550
00:27:34,080 --> 00:27:37,199
Speaker 4: hard to say until things play out for longer, I

551
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:40,199
Speaker 4: don't know that. I think there's a huge international legacy

552
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 4: to Bidenomics at this exact moment. Right. Countries during this

553
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 4: period have been going through a lot of inflation. There's

554
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 4: been Russia's invasion of Ukraine. There's the war that is

555
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 4: what's currently waging in Gaza now in seven Lebanon. There's

556
00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 4: so much going on in the world that the question

557
00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,480
Speaker 4: of how the Biden administration is doing their green subsidies

558
00:27:57,560 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 4: just doesn't strike me as something that.

559
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 3: Like now everyone is as repetive on industrial policy as

560
00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:03,640
Speaker 3: we are. Yeah, that's fair.

561
00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,320
Speaker 4: And then, particularly if Donald Trump comes back in, I

562
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 4: think that the main thing people will think about with

563
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 4: Joe Biden that has been true is the amount of

564
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 4: attention and intention Biden put into nurturing alliances, to being

565
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 4: aligned with our partners to try to work these disputes out,

566
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:23,320
Speaker 4: but also to standing together where America can and would

567
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,800
Speaker 4: want to against Russian aggression on climate. Right, there's a

568
00:28:26,840 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 4: million things where they've been putting like endless work into

569
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:33,040
Speaker 4: the alliances. I just don't buy that the industrial policy

570
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:37,040
Speaker 4: is just that big of a story of bidenministration foreign policy. Now.

571
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 4: The China stuff, I think is the China side of

572
00:28:39,800 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 4: things to me is I don't want to call it

573
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 4: the It's obviously not an uncovered story. But if you

574
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,840
Speaker 4: ask me what has surprised me most about the Biden administration,

575
00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 4: it has been how hawkish and competitive with China they've been,

576
00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 4: how they went further than Donald Trump. They did things

577
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 4: he did not, do things he really, in many ways

578
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 4: didn't even imagine doing. When you listen to speeches and

579
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,480
Speaker 4: people like Jake Sullivan have given right, there's a real

580
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 4: sense that the old model failed and that this all

581
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 4: needed to be rethought, and that they are out there

582
00:29:06,480 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 4: rethinking it, right, I mean, and they've been willing to

583
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:10,600
Speaker 4: do this even when it does I think have real

584
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:13,800
Speaker 4: conflict with other goals in their agenda. On the one hand,

585
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 4: they want to have a rapid transition to electric vehicles.

586
00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 4: You can't hit our climate goals if you don't. On

587
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 4: the other hand, they've put a what is it, one

588
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 4: hundred percent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles even though they're

589
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,840
Speaker 4: cheaper and they're good cars, and you can bring them

590
00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:30,040
Speaker 4: in and accelerate the pace of the EV transition. So

591
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 4: that's a place where they have found the competition with China.

592
00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 4: Trump's something they have often spoken of as a very

593
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:41,440
Speaker 4: very high priority, which is the decarbonization and clean energy transition.

594
00:29:42,120 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 4: So what they've done on China to me, and the

595
00:29:44,480 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 4: way that they have taken what Trump began almost intuitively

596
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 4: and made it into a structured policy that has to

597
00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 4: sign off not just of the Republican Party under Donald Trump,

598
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 4: but the Democratic Party under Joe Biden. That feels like

599
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 4: a very big shift that will have very far reaching consequences.

600
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 2: So we've been talking a lot about industrial policy and

601
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 2: the Inflation Reduction Act and so forth, But before the

602
00:30:09,160 --> 00:30:12,760
Speaker 2: Inflation Reduction Act existed, there was a package called Build

603
00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 2: Back Better, and Build Back Better had hundreds of billions

604
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:21,800
Speaker 2: of dollars allocated towards the care economy, childcare and pre

605
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 2: kindergarten and paid family leave and all of these things.

606
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 2: And that's ultimately the big chunk that didn't make it

607
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 2: into the Inflation Reduction Act, and we know these things

608
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:35,800
Speaker 2: paid family leave, universal childcare of some sort. They're big deals,

609
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: particularly well for a lot of people, but also for

610
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:42,400
Speaker 2: a lot of influential people in the Democratic Party specifically.

611
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,680
Speaker 2: What was the constraint? I mean, I've seen things that like, oh,

612
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 2: there are all these different groups involved and they couldn't coordinate.

613
00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:50,560
Speaker 2: Some people say it was just like the legislation was

614
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,479
Speaker 2: sort of bad and unworkable. Maybe it was just the money.

615
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 2: Why didn't the care economy part make it in in

616
00:30:56,880 --> 00:31:00,280
Speaker 2: your view? And is that something that would do think

617
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 2: likely to come up next the next time the political

618
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 2: stars align in DC.

619
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 4: I have a very simple answer to this and rhymes

620
00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 4: with schmosh mansion. Is it really that simpole? It is

621
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 4: that simple. Look, there are a lot of problems in

622
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 4: the ker economy side of the bill. There's a great

623
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,720
Speaker 4: piece by Rachel Cohen and Box about the kind of

624
00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 4: crazy interest group politics around it. I think a lot

625
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,400
Speaker 4: of bits of the care economy side of the bill

626
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 4: were not that well designed. Right, you can hand pick

627
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 4: this to death. It didn't pass because they didn't have

628
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 4: the votes, and they'd ended the votes because they had

629
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 4: a fifty to fifty Senate split, and very importantly, Joe

630
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,360
Speaker 4: Manchin was not on board, right, and that was not

631
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,320
Speaker 4: his priority, And in a way in the end, I

632
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 4: think it wasn't exactly there is at least compared to

633
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 4: climate right, and in terms of what the Democratic Coalition

634
00:31:45,640 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 4: ranked higher, the climate investments were more pressing to them

635
00:31:48,280 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 4: than the care economy side. Now, if Joe Manchin had

636
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 4: said yes, could they have got in Kristen Cinema, maybe right?

637
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 4: I mean you could maybe name like one or two

638
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 4: or three members of the Senate who would have at

639
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 4: least shaved that down. But I think think they could

640
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 4: have gotten something out of the care economy package if

641
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,920
Speaker 4: Joe Manchin had been more open to it. Right, maybe

642
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 4: not everything, but something, so they didn't have the juice

643
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,160
Speaker 4: and the Senate to pass that. I mean, I actually

644
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 4: think it's really as simple as that. Now, if Manchin

645
00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 4: had said, I'm open to this, but this bill, and

646
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 4: this was a period of the negotiations were like this,

647
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 4: and I'd have to go back and look at what

648
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 4: made it into this version of it. But I don't

649
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 4: remember how big the original build back better was. But

650
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 4: there's a period where it looked like Mansion might do

651
00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 4: one point eight trillion, or maybe it's one point two trillion. Right,

652
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 4: there were different There was a lot of different things floated,

653
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,360
Speaker 4: and it was like how much of the climate investments

654
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 4: could you keep in? How much of the care economy

655
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 4: work could you keep in? And a lot of different

656
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 4: menus were offered, and depending on what the constraint from

657
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 4: the Senate had been, you could imagine different menus having

658
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 4: been proposed, and then the question of how you choose

659
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 4: and like how you like have the deal with the

660
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 4: disappointment of some of the groups inside that coalition, that

661
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 4: would become very salient. But in the end, Mansion was

662
00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:56,239
Speaker 4: a no on the care economy and that's what killed it.

663
00:32:57,120 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 3: Do you have a sense of continuity or lack of

664
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 3: it in the next four years? And what I mean

665
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 3: by that is we've started all these big projects with

666
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,720
Speaker 3: like multi decade timelines, right, and some of them are

667
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:11,960
Speaker 3: going to be finished for years and years and years

668
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:15,520
Speaker 3: and years. And whether you know, Harris comes in or

669
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 3: Trump comes in, it seems like there's a question mark

670
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 3: over how these programs are going to run. I guess

671
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 3: to summon up my question is like how much of

672
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 3: this is locked in.

673
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 4: I think that if Trump comes in, it's not clear

674
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:30,560
Speaker 4: to me how much is locked in. I mean, some

675
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 4: of it is. I don't think they can get rid

676
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 4: of everything in the IRA or the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill.

677
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 4: They're definitely not getting rid of Chips and Science Act.

678
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:38,800
Speaker 4: But I think it is not implausible they would get

679
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 4: rid of quite a bit of the IRA, right that

680
00:33:40,480 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 4: that money might go towards tax cuts or something else.

681
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 4: If it's Harris, I think it is locked in, and

682
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 4: I think you should expect that a Harris administration will

683
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 4: be stocked with many of the same people in the

684
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:54,480
Speaker 4: Biden administration. I think that if you imagine who might

685
00:33:54,520 --> 00:33:57,320
Speaker 4: have been appointed in Abiden's second term, I don't think

686
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 4: those appointments will look very different than the ones Harris

687
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 4: will make. Not shown, as far as I can tell,

688
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 4: any actual clear signal that she thinks that the appointments

689
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 4: or the ideological direction on this set of issues should

690
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 4: be radically different than where it's been in the Biden

691
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 4: Harris administration. You know, she's known to have a very

692
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:19,520
Speaker 4: good relationship with Janet Yellen. If you look at who's

693
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,760
Speaker 4: been coming in to sort of help create her economic

694
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 4: policy it's people like Brian Deese and Mike Pyle, who

695
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:27,319
Speaker 4: are key members of the Biden team. If you look

696
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 4: at the sort of people who seem to be advising her,

697
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:30,840
Speaker 4: it's all the same people. If you look at the

698
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 4: sort of signal she's sending about what she wants to do,

699
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 4: it's very largely similar things. Biden is a very coalitional politician.

700
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:39,760
Speaker 4: He had his own views, but he was also governing

701
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 4: from the center of the Democratic Coalition. Harris is also

702
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 4: a very coalitional politician. I think one of the things

703
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 4: we don't know about her, and the different people I

704
00:34:47,239 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 4: think are jocking to try to define about her, is

705
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 4: what her relationship will be with some of the more

706
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 4: left groups and figures who wielded more power in the

707
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 4: Biden administration than people expected them to, which is one reason,

708
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:01,400
Speaker 4: by the way, that when there was all this pressure

709
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 4: on Biden to step aside, he was backed up and

710
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:07,319
Speaker 4: reinforced by Bernie Sanders, by AOC and members of the

711
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,359
Speaker 4: squad like That was very surprising that that was who

712
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 4: was rallying for Biden, but in a way it wasn't

713
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:17,200
Speaker 4: because they'd actually been enormously favored in terms of the

714
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,320
Speaker 4: Biden administration right, and in terms of the kinds of

715
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 4: people you appointed, were very much in the sort of

716
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 4: Elizabeth Warren wing of the party. Biden had a very

717
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 4: friendly relationship with the left and he gave them a

718
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 4: lot of power. It's the coalitional government he actually on

719
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 4: economic policy ran. Nobody quite knows where Harris will be

720
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 4: on that. On the one hand, when she ran in

721
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 4: twenty twenty, she was terrible at saying no to the

722
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:40,719
Speaker 4: groups and she ended up taking all kinds of positions

723
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 4: that she's had to back off from in this campaign.

724
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:45,920
Speaker 4: On the other hand, in this campaign, she's backed off

725
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 4: from positions like banning fracking or defunding the police, with

726
00:35:49,640 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 4: absolutely no ill effects in terms of her political coalition

727
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 4: as far as anybody can tell. And so the sense

728
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 4: that you know, and she seems to be friendlier maybe

729
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 4: the business community than Biden was to me, it's very

730
00:36:00,239 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 4: hard to know how all that will net out, and

731
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 4: she's actually gonna have to make these decisions, which right

732
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 4: now I think the entire Democratic Party is giving her

733
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,440
Speaker 4: a pretty big pass on positioning in order to beat

734
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 4: Donald Trump. But you know, you could see her either

735
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 4: being a little bit more kind of pro business and

736
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 4: a little bit less like in this relationship with Sade

737
00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,120
Speaker 4: the Bernie Sanders wing of the party than Biden was.

738
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,719
Speaker 4: You could see her governing in the exact same way,

739
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 4: and you could also imagine really that it's like what

740
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:26,240
Speaker 4: Chuck Schumer thinks to be the center of economic policy

741
00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 4: and the Democratic Party is ultimately what matters here. Those

742
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 4: all seem like very plausible outcomes to me.

743
00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 2: Ezra Klein, that was so great. Thank you so much

744
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 2: for coming back on odd lots, the perfect guest at

745
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 2: the perfect time ahead of the election, and I really

746
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:40,880
Speaker 2: appreciate you taking the time.

747
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 4: Thank you all the pleasure.

748
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,000
Speaker 2: Always you got to come back on when you're on

749
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 2: your podcast book tour. When's your book.

750
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:47,279
Speaker 4: Coming, I will I will definitely let you know and

751
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:48,759
Speaker 4: I will come back on and we will abund into

752
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 4: the hell out of it.

753
00:36:50,680 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 2: Thanks Ezra, thank you, Thank you all. Tracy, I really

754
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 2: liked that conversation. Just a very good I guess scene setter.

755
00:37:10,280 --> 00:37:12,000
Speaker 2: You know, we don't do a lot of like electoral

756
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:16,240
Speaker 2: politics thing on the show, but it is also true

757
00:37:16,440 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 2: that we've gotten dozens and dozens of episodes in the

758
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 2: last few years directly downstream from politics and from political changes.

759
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 2: So it's like we can't like just pretend to exist

760
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 2: in a vacuum where that doesn't exist as much as

761
00:37:29,239 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 2: I'd like to.

762
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 3: No, of course, not one thing I hadn't like considered

763
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 3: that much or hadn't focused on is the coalitional aspects

764
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,120
Speaker 3: that he brought up, Like not just for Trump, who

765
00:37:40,480 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 3: you know, we know he has a lot of advisors

766
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,120
Speaker 3: and depending on who's talking to him, you know, he

767
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 3: kind of seems to change his mind. But also on

768
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,040
Speaker 3: the Harris side, I haven't realized that.

769
00:37:51,160 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 2: No, it's true. I mean there's a lot there. First

770
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,799
Speaker 2: of all, Ezra sort of alluded to this, but one

771
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 2: of the challenges of trying to figure out what will

772
00:37:59,320 --> 00:38:03,360
Speaker 2: Trump do under his administration is figuring out who actually

773
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 2: speaks for Trump because there are a lot of various organizations.

774
00:38:06,840 --> 00:38:10,000
Speaker 2: The Heritage Institute put out Project twenty twenty five, then

775
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 2: Trump disavout it. There are a lot of organizations that

776
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:16,359
Speaker 2: would like to be the mouthpiece for whatever trump Ist

777
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 2: economics are, and I think it's still highly tbd who

778
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 2: actually gets that, and so you know the.

779
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,320
Speaker 3: Sort of you know, it's funny just on this point,

780
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 3: there's a Goldman Sachs note that like literally just hit

781
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 3: my inbox while we were recording this, and they're talking

782
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 3: about tariffs under Trump, and you know, Trump has said

783
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:40,040
Speaker 3: sixty percent on Chinese imports, but Goldman is going ahead,

784
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,120
Speaker 3: and they're like, actually, we think it's going to be

785
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 3: tiered across product categories and it's going to look like this.

786
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:47,359
Speaker 2: They're sticking their neck out there.

787
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 3: Yeah. I don't know, like there's always a temptation to

788
00:38:50,040 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 3: try to like formulate Trump's policies because many of them

789
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 3: are so unclear or you know, to some people, unbelievable.

790
00:38:58,000 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 4: Yeah.

791
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:00,920
Speaker 2: The other thing I think that interesting too in that

792
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:05,200
Speaker 2: conversation was I liked hearing Ezra his take sort of

793
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 2: on the rise and fall of different ideological reasons that

794
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: are bipartisans. So the idea that New Dealism to some

795
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 2: extent was a bipartisan project after FDR neoliberalism, you know,

796
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 2: people call it that was a Reagan and Bush and

797
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 2: Clinton thing, et cetera. And so the idea that like

798
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 2: from Trump starting in twenty sixteen through Biden through twenty

799
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,840
Speaker 2: twenty four. You know, we can talk about Biden onmics,

800
00:39:28,880 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: but there was also some other shift happening right now.

801
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,960
Speaker 2: That makes sort of electoral analysis a little bit unclean

802
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:37,959
Speaker 2: in terms of, oh, there's going to be a pivot

803
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 2: every four years.

804
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,879
Speaker 3: Yeah. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Act is a good example. Yeah,

805
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:42,359
Speaker 3: that's right.

806
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:43,120
Speaker 2: And the Chips Act.

807
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:43,399
Speaker 3: Yeah.

808
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:45,879
Speaker 2: And Tom Cotton of Arkansas that was like a big

809
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 2: thing for him, Republican. So all these things are a

810
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:49,360
Speaker 2: little more muddied.

811
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:53,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, this time next week will be interesting, certainly.

812
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 3: Shall we leave it there?

813
00:39:54,680 --> 00:39:55,359
Speaker 2: Let's leave it there.

814
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 3: This has been another episode of the All Thoughts podcast.

815
00:39:58,360 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 3: I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow him at Tracy Alloway.

816
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 2: And I'm Jill Wisenthal. You can follow me at The Stalwart.

817
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,239
Speaker 2: Follow our guest Ezra Kline. He's at Ezra Kline, and

818
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 2: check out The Ezraklin Show. Obviously. Follow our producers Carman

819
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,920
Speaker 2: Rodriguez at Kerman Ermann dash Ol Bennett at Dashbot, and

820
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 2: Kilbrooks at Kelbrooks. Thank you to our producer Moses ONEm.

821
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 2: More Oddlots content go to Bloomberg dot com slash odd lots,

822
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,400
Speaker 2: where you have transcripts, a blog and a newsletter and

823
00:40:23,440 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: you can chat about all of these topics. Twenty four

824
00:40:25,560 --> 00:40:28,960
Speaker 2: to seven in our discord Discord dot gg, slash.

825
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 3: Od loots and if you enjoy odd Lots, If you

826
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 3: like it when we kind of touch on politics but

827
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,320
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828
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,960
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829
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:45,080
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830
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831
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:52,360
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832
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833
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:56,280
Speaker 3: listening

834
00:41:01,640 --> 00:41:01,680
Speaker 1: In