WEBVTT - The Rise and Fall of Crypto Billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried from Talk Easy 0:00:15.316 --> 0:00:15.796 Pushkin. 0:00:33.756 --> 0:00:35.996 This is Talk Easy. I'm Stan Fragoso. 0:00:37.076 --> 0:00:37.796 Welcome to the show. 0:00:50.796 --> 0:00:55.036 Today we are joined by writer and podcaster Michael Lewis. 0:00:55.596 --> 0:00:58.436 He's the host of Against the Rules and the author 0:00:58.516 --> 0:01:03.236 of several best selling books, including Liars, Poker, Moneyball, and 0:01:03.276 --> 0:01:07.236 The Big Short. His latest is called Going Infinite, The 0:01:07.356 --> 0:01:10.996 Rise and Fall of a New Time. The tycoon in 0:01:11.116 --> 0:01:16.076 question is Sam Bankman Freed, the FTX crypto mogul, who 0:01:16.156 --> 0:01:19.236 was once listed by Forbes as the richest person in 0:01:19.276 --> 0:01:23.956 the world under thirty. That was until the cryptocurrency exchange 0:01:23.996 --> 0:01:27.996 collapse last fall, when several billions from customers and investors 0:01:28.236 --> 0:01:32.596 were lent to Alameda Research, a cryptocurrency trading firm co 0:01:32.676 --> 0:01:36.396 founded by Bankman Freed. Sam now stands trial in a 0:01:36.436 --> 0:01:39.956 Manhattan federal court where he's been accused of orchestrating a 0:01:39.996 --> 0:01:44.516 scheme to siphon money from FTX into various political contributions, 0:01:44.636 --> 0:01:50.196 real estate purchases, charitable donations, and venture investments. He currently 0:01:50.196 --> 0:01:55.756 faces seven criminal counts, including wire fraud, conspiracy, and money laundering. 0:01:56.316 --> 0:01:59.796 But at each twist and turn in Sam's improbable story, 0:02:00.276 --> 0:02:03.156 there's only one person that really had a front row 0:02:03.236 --> 0:02:07.556 seat to the action Michael Lewis. Since the publication of 0:02:07.556 --> 0:02:11.036 Going Infinite in early October, the book has received a 0:02:11.196 --> 0:02:15.036 wide array of reviews. The Guardian, for one, marveled at 0:02:15.116 --> 0:02:19.236 Lewis's ability to quote, pace, structure, and humanize a story 0:02:19.276 --> 0:02:23.916 about something as dense and unfriendly as crypto. However, as 0:02:23.956 --> 0:02:26.836 Michael and I discussed at the top, others have been 0:02:26.956 --> 0:02:30.796 less charitable, including The New York Times, The Washington Post 0:02:31.036 --> 0:02:34.316 and The Atlantic, each of which have suggested in one 0:02:34.356 --> 0:02:37.596 way or another that Lewis grew too close to his 0:02:37.676 --> 0:02:41.676 subject that he failed to demonstrate quote a healthy helping 0:02:41.756 --> 0:02:46.276 of skepticism, as one Calmness wrote. But in my view, 0:02:46.556 --> 0:02:49.676 the book, much like the subject at its center, is 0:02:49.716 --> 0:02:53.476 a bit more complicated than those descriptions, and so this 0:02:53.636 --> 0:02:55.956 week I wanted to sit with Lewis to discuss the 0:02:56.076 --> 0:03:00.476 thornier elements of Going Infinite, along with the whirlwind press 0:03:00.516 --> 0:03:03.996 tour he's been on as bankman Freed remains on trial. 0:03:04.716 --> 0:03:08.556 We also discuss Sam's belief in effective altruism and all 0:03:08.596 --> 0:03:11.196 the ways in which he planned to use his money 0:03:11.476 --> 0:03:15.276 for the greater good. And then, finally, in the last act, 0:03:15.716 --> 0:03:19.636 Michael reflects on his own journalistic philosophies and how he 0:03:19.716 --> 0:03:22.956 managed to write this book in the aftermath of great 0:03:23.276 --> 0:03:27.756 personal tragedy. That's all coming up next with our guest 0:03:27.876 --> 0:03:30.996 and fellow Pushkin podcaster Michael Lewis. 0:03:31.676 --> 0:03:32.796 I hope you're intruct. 0:04:09.596 --> 0:04:11.796 Michael Lewis, Welcome back to the show. 0:04:11.956 --> 0:04:12.876 Sam's good to see you. 0:04:13.076 --> 0:04:15.516 How are you feeling anything interesting happening in your life? 0:04:15.676 --> 0:04:19.356 Well? Yes, as a matter of fact, I'm having an 0:04:19.396 --> 0:04:22.036 experience I've had versions of before where book comes out 0:04:22.036 --> 0:04:26.356 and it just kind of goes nuts. It upsets some people. 0:04:26.316 --> 0:04:27.036 A lot of people. 0:04:27.236 --> 0:04:29.876 Yeah, very angry. Yeah, a lot of people very angry. 0:04:29.716 --> 0:04:30.956 Why are they so mad at you? 0:04:31.436 --> 0:04:33.276 So let me just back up a little bit. I've 0:04:33.276 --> 0:04:37.236 had people angry with me before. The first I don't know, 0:04:37.396 --> 0:04:40.796 six weeks of Moneyball was miserable, and it was miserable 0:04:40.796 --> 0:04:42.756 because the people are right out of the gate, were 0:04:42.756 --> 0:04:46.196 people who were wedded to the old way of doing things, 0:04:46.196 --> 0:04:48.436 and it was an insult to the old way of 0:04:48.436 --> 0:04:48.916 doing things. 0:04:48.996 --> 0:04:50.636 And as a Cubs fan, I was insulted. 0:04:50.796 --> 0:04:53.556 Yeah, people were insulted. I'm trying to get my mind 0:04:53.596 --> 0:04:55.636 around the anger this time because it's a little it's 0:04:55.676 --> 0:04:59.836 a little less clear. It's not universal, highly concentrated in 0:04:59.876 --> 0:05:03.516 the United States, which is a little odd because you know, 0:05:03.596 --> 0:05:06.676 the book is about Sam Bekman freedom FTX, and the 0:05:06.796 --> 0:05:10.876 vast majority of the losses are outside of the United States. 0:05:11.116 --> 0:05:13.476 The people who you would think would be angry because 0:05:13.516 --> 0:05:17.876 they lost money are in Turkey, in China and India, 0:05:17.916 --> 0:05:21.876 and the outrage is here. I mean even so, I 0:05:21.956 --> 0:05:25.476 just came back from touring in Ireland. In England and 0:05:25.876 --> 0:05:30.876 the feeling near there is curiosity and a desire to understand. 0:05:31.436 --> 0:05:35.076 Well, those are the guiding principles of this podcast. Yes, 0:05:35.676 --> 0:05:38.796 we're the last interview you're doing on your press tour, 0:05:39.516 --> 0:05:42.876 which I know you have not been overjoyed to do, 0:05:43.836 --> 0:05:47.196 in part because the subject of your book is currently 0:05:47.196 --> 0:05:51.276 on trial and has just announced that he will be 0:05:51.396 --> 0:05:56.356 testifying later this week. Sam Bankman Fried is the founder 0:05:56.436 --> 0:06:01.676 of FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange. He plans to defend himself 0:06:01.676 --> 0:06:05.436 against claims that he orchestrated a sweeping scheme to steal 0:06:05.516 --> 0:06:10.036 as much as ten billion dollars in deposits from fts customers. 0:06:10.516 --> 0:06:14.556 He's pleaded not guilty to seven charges of fraud, conspiracy, 0:06:14.636 --> 0:06:18.516 and money laundering. If convicted, he would face what amounts 0:06:18.556 --> 0:06:22.276 to a life sentence. Now, you spent the better part 0:06:22.676 --> 0:06:26.516 of the last two years with Sam and his colleagues 0:06:26.516 --> 0:06:28.916 and his family, first as a fly on the wall, 0:06:28.956 --> 0:06:32.716 then as a kind of sounding board before we dive in. 0:06:33.476 --> 0:06:37.196 Are you surprised that Sam has elected to testify? And 0:06:37.276 --> 0:06:39.596 more importantly, do you think it's a good idea? 0:06:40.356 --> 0:06:42.876 Not surprised, because he's been adamant all along, and then 0:06:42.916 --> 0:06:43.436 he would do. 0:06:43.396 --> 0:06:45.556 It if he got the medication required, If. 0:06:45.476 --> 0:06:48.316 He got the medication required for ADHD right, And he's 0:06:48.316 --> 0:06:52.596 been adamant all along about his feeling of his own innocence, 0:06:53.316 --> 0:06:57.356 has maintained all along the gap between his perception of 0:06:57.356 --> 0:07:00.396 this event and the prosecutor's perception. So there was never 0:07:00.756 --> 0:07:03.876 like there was never in the air ideal. It was never, oh, 0:07:03.956 --> 0:07:06.076 let's talk to them about maybe five years in jail. 0:07:06.276 --> 0:07:09.236 It was I think I'm innocent, and they think I 0:07:09.236 --> 0:07:11.556 should go to jail for life. So I knew that 0:07:11.596 --> 0:07:14.196 he wanted to tell his story from the witness stand. 0:07:14.396 --> 0:07:17.396 Is it a good idea? Every lawyer in the world 0:07:17.436 --> 0:07:18.116 would tell you no. 0:07:18.996 --> 0:07:22.716 And it's including maybe his own father possibly who's an attorney. 0:07:22.836 --> 0:07:25.436 The parents long ago learned that anything they try to 0:07:25.476 --> 0:07:29.356 tell him backfires, so that they wouldn't be so unwise 0:07:29.396 --> 0:07:31.756 as to give their advice because he just does the opposite. 0:07:32.196 --> 0:07:34.636 And the reason why it's a bad idea is interesting. 0:07:35.236 --> 0:07:38.636 It isn't that like he can make it worse, because 0:07:38.676 --> 0:07:40.956 it's already as bad as it really as he can get. 0:07:41.036 --> 0:07:43.476 I mean, every lawyer in the world will also tell 0:07:43.516 --> 0:07:45.996 you that the jury is likely to convict, so you 0:07:46.076 --> 0:07:47.436 kind of think, well, why not. It's kind of a 0:07:47.476 --> 0:07:52.916 hail Mary. But if the judge takes offense at his testimony, 0:07:52.956 --> 0:07:55.276 if the judge thinks he purchases himself in the court 0:07:55.356 --> 0:07:58.196 in his courtroom, the judge has a great latitude as 0:07:58.196 --> 0:08:00.836 the sentencing, and the judge might just layer on some 0:08:00.836 --> 0:08:03.316 more years because of whatever Sam says on the stand. 0:08:03.636 --> 0:08:06.476 And I know he's been told that, so he's running 0:08:06.516 --> 0:08:08.676 that risk. And I have no idea. I haven't had 0:08:08.676 --> 0:08:10.276 any contact with him since he was put in jail, 0:08:10.316 --> 0:08:11.556 so I don't know what he's going to say. 0:08:11.676 --> 0:08:13.276 Have you tried to have contact with him. 0:08:13.596 --> 0:08:16.556 I floated the idea of going in to visit. I 0:08:16.596 --> 0:08:18.956 had a few more questions. I wanted to put to him, 0:08:19.476 --> 0:08:22.676 and everybody agreed it was a bad idea for him 0:08:22.676 --> 0:08:25.476 to let me in because the prosecutors were already agitated 0:08:25.476 --> 0:08:27.356 about my presence in his life. 0:08:27.516 --> 0:08:31.356 Now you've said that the prosecution has one story, the 0:08:31.396 --> 0:08:34.356 defense has another story, which we're about to hear, which 0:08:34.356 --> 0:08:36.676 we're about to hear for the first time. You've said 0:08:36.676 --> 0:08:40.236 that you have the best story. Why do you think 0:08:40.236 --> 0:08:40.556 that is? 0:08:40.676 --> 0:08:43.196 Because I had context for it all, Because I interviewed 0:08:43.196 --> 0:08:45.796 all these people when things were good up until November 0:08:45.836 --> 0:08:48.316 of last year. Everyone in the world wanted to be 0:08:48.356 --> 0:08:51.916 aligned with Sam Begman freed. After November, everybody wanted to 0:08:52.156 --> 0:08:54.276 The last thing they wanted was to have anything to 0:08:54.316 --> 0:08:56.676 do with him or be aligned in any way. And 0:08:56.716 --> 0:08:59.876 so I saw that. I saw both. I saw the 0:08:59.916 --> 0:09:03.796 states of mind of the participants, which have now been 0:09:03.836 --> 0:09:06.036 I think a little distorted on the witness stand and 0:09:06.076 --> 0:09:08.876 distorted by social pressure. So I had just had a 0:09:09.236 --> 0:09:12.036 text for it all. Also, there's all kinds of stuff 0:09:12.756 --> 0:09:16.196 that isn't admissible in a courtroom. It would be important 0:09:16.236 --> 0:09:19.436 for someone who's just curious about what happened, but that 0:09:19.636 --> 0:09:23.676 is irrelevant to the legal proceedings. A couple of examples 0:09:24.676 --> 0:09:28.116 the whole effective altruism angle, like what these people lived 0:09:28.156 --> 0:09:31.036 in eight and breathes for and they really did all 0:09:31.036 --> 0:09:33.636 of them. That's not come up in the courtroom. You 0:09:33.716 --> 0:09:35.156 kind of need to know that, you know, the kind 0:09:35.196 --> 0:09:37.596 of the spirit in the air and the weirdness of 0:09:37.596 --> 0:09:42.036 the whole thing. Another example the fact that it's looking 0:09:42.076 --> 0:09:43.996 increasingly like all the customers are going to get their 0:09:43.996 --> 0:09:47.116 money back. The bankruptcy people have said that they're eight 0:09:47.156 --> 0:09:50.476 point six billion dollars in customer deposits that are missing, 0:09:50.476 --> 0:09:53.156 that they found seven point three and they're sitting on 0:09:53.196 --> 0:09:56.876 at least one one private investment that seems to be 0:09:56.916 --> 0:09:59.996 worth several billion dollars. That's not admissible in the courtroom. 0:10:00.036 --> 0:10:03.116 It's sort of like when you tell someone over dinner that, oh, 0:10:03.156 --> 0:10:06.996 by the way, there's likely to be close to full recovery. 0:10:07.276 --> 0:10:08.556 Their jaws are on the floor. What do you mean, 0:10:08.556 --> 0:10:10.596 I thought he stole all the money? Well, he put 0:10:10.636 --> 0:10:12.476 the money in the wrong place and used it for 0:10:12.516 --> 0:10:14.116 his own purposes when he should have and he put 0:10:14.156 --> 0:10:15.756 people at risk that he shouldn't have put at risk, 0:10:15.996 --> 0:10:18.476 which is a crime, which is all of course. So 0:10:18.756 --> 0:10:21.836 it's like the courtroom has a very narrow purpose, and 0:10:21.916 --> 0:10:23.556 my purpose is just much broader. 0:10:23.956 --> 0:10:27.116 If we had had dinner in October of twenty twenty two, 0:10:27.996 --> 0:10:32.156 at that point, FDx had ten million account holders, to 0:10:32.196 --> 0:10:34.916 whom it owed eight point seven billion dollars. It had 0:10:34.956 --> 0:10:37.676 generated a billion dollars in twenty twenty one, it was 0:10:37.836 --> 0:10:39.716 likely to do the same in twenty twenty two, even 0:10:39.756 --> 0:10:43.596 despite crypto prices crashing. It was on the surface a 0:10:43.596 --> 0:10:46.996 booming business, with venture capitalists suggesting that Sam could be 0:10:47.436 --> 0:10:50.436 the first trillionaire. So if we were to have that dinner, 0:10:50.996 --> 0:10:54.196 how would you explain the book you were writing at 0:10:54.196 --> 0:10:54.596 the time. 0:10:54.756 --> 0:10:56.956 It's funny you asked this question because I had that 0:10:57.076 --> 0:11:00.436 dinner at the very beginning of November with a friend 0:11:00.476 --> 0:11:03.196 who was a film director. It wasn't a dinner, it 0:11:03.236 --> 0:11:05.836 was a cup coffee. But I really like his storytelling, 0:11:05.916 --> 0:11:08.836 Chops like, I really kind of He's a good sounding board. 0:11:09.276 --> 0:11:11.316 And the point of the conversation was, I don't know 0:11:11.356 --> 0:11:13.716 if I have a book, and so I've been sitting 0:11:13.756 --> 0:11:15.236 with this guy for a year. Let me just tell 0:11:15.276 --> 0:11:17.916 you this material, and let me tell you why I 0:11:17.956 --> 0:11:19.636 haven't decided whether I'm going to write it. Or not, 0:11:20.156 --> 0:11:23.076 and I sort of laid out what I knew about 0:11:23.076 --> 0:11:25.076 Sam Bankman Freed. I laid out it was effectively the 0:11:25.076 --> 0:11:26.316 first six chapters of the book. 0:11:26.396 --> 0:11:27.236 So how did you do that? 0:11:27.276 --> 0:11:32.116 In conversation, I said, here's this character, born without a 0:11:32.156 --> 0:11:35.796 full complement of human feeling, born without empathy, born without 0:11:35.836 --> 0:11:40.396 ability to feel pleasure, who lives a completely isolated childhood, 0:11:40.876 --> 0:11:43.596 isolated beyond belief, given that he's being raised by two 0:11:43.636 --> 0:11:46.276 Stanford law professors on the Stanford campus who were quite 0:11:46.276 --> 0:11:49.276 social people themselves and had a brother, and had a 0:11:49.276 --> 0:11:51.236 brother who regarded him as a tenant in the house 0:11:51.236 --> 0:11:52.716 because he didn't have anything to do with each other. 0:11:53.396 --> 0:11:57.956 This person sort of compensates for what he lacks by 0:11:57.996 --> 0:12:00.396 taking what he can do and imposing it on the world. 0:12:00.436 --> 0:12:05.796 What he can do is math calculations. He can think quantitatively, analytically, 0:12:06.156 --> 0:12:08.116 and so he kind of turns life into this math 0:12:08.196 --> 0:12:11.556 problem and would seem to not fit anywhere in the 0:12:11.596 --> 0:12:14.596 world until he collides with Wall Street Wall Street and 0:12:14.636 --> 0:12:18.396 its modern incarnation, high frequency trading, And when he collides 0:12:18.436 --> 0:12:22.196 with that, he finds what he thinks is special about himself. 0:12:22.676 --> 0:12:26.276 It's a particular kind of problem solving. It isn't exactly math. 0:12:26.556 --> 0:12:32.476 It's making decisions, aren't calculations in semi chaotic environments, environments 0:12:32.476 --> 0:12:35.196 where there isn't you can't get to a right answer. 0:12:35.196 --> 0:12:37.596 You can just get to a better answer. It's not 0:12:37.756 --> 0:12:40.396 playing chess. It's playing chess on a clock where you 0:12:40.436 --> 0:12:42.076 have to make a move every five seconds and the 0:12:42.156 --> 0:12:44.876 rules change, like the rules change every five minutes, so 0:12:44.916 --> 0:12:48.396 the pieces the queen's become pawns or whatever. So you're 0:12:48.436 --> 0:12:50.796 dealing with this kind of chaotic environment. But where it 0:12:50.836 --> 0:12:55.396 does help to have a quantitative, analytical kind of aptitude, 0:12:55.956 --> 0:12:57.916 and it happens to be Those are the kind of 0:12:57.956 --> 0:13:01.196 tests they put him through. His Jane Street is his 0:13:01.236 --> 0:13:03.636 high frequency trading for him in order to before they 0:13:03.756 --> 0:13:07.476 hire him, and he's exceptional at it, and this defines him. 0:13:07.956 --> 0:13:10.236 And what I'm telling the film Rector is I'm so 0:13:10.276 --> 0:13:14.156 interested in this character because he goes from being having 0:13:14.236 --> 0:13:16.676 no place in the world to sitting at the center 0:13:16.756 --> 0:13:20.196 of the world. He goes from being nobody to being, 0:13:20.396 --> 0:13:22.476 you know, the richest person in the world under thirty 0:13:22.956 --> 0:13:25.636 and he's an octopus with his tentacles everywhere. 0:13:25.716 --> 0:13:27.916 At that point, what did the center look like. 0:13:28.636 --> 0:13:32.196 The center is bizarre because of where he is is 0:13:32.236 --> 0:13:34.596 the Bahamas. He's in the jungle hut you know that 0:13:35.036 --> 0:13:38.556 with and in a fancy condominium that he sleeps in. 0:13:38.596 --> 0:13:41.876 But the office is this nondescript hout in the middle 0:13:41.916 --> 0:13:43.876 of the jungle in the southern part of the main 0:13:43.916 --> 0:13:46.156 island of the Bahamas. But what does it look like? 0:13:46.876 --> 0:13:52.076 It looks like the fanciest, most celebrity drenched dinner party 0:13:52.116 --> 0:13:55.156 you've ever been to. You name the famous person in 0:13:55.196 --> 0:13:58.916 there there and the person who you don't recognize, Sam 0:13:58.956 --> 0:14:01.396 Bankman Freed in shorts and a T shirt and droopy 0:14:01.396 --> 0:14:03.556 white sox with his hair all over the place is 0:14:03.596 --> 0:14:06.956 the center of attention. Everybody's around, hanging on every word, 0:14:07.236 --> 0:14:10.116 and he's just starting to have in luance every which way. 0:14:10.156 --> 0:14:12.236 And so the question is like, what is this telling 0:14:12.316 --> 0:14:14.436 us about the world? That was always what interested me 0:14:14.476 --> 0:14:16.676 about him. So I'm telling the film director this story. 0:14:16.916 --> 0:14:18.076 It takes me an hour to get through it, and 0:14:18.156 --> 0:14:21.236 he says, this is interesting. He says, you have a 0:14:21.236 --> 0:14:24.276 problem that this story does not have a third act. 0:14:24.396 --> 0:14:26.156 You don't know where it's going, so you don't have 0:14:26.156 --> 0:14:28.756 an ending. So it's not a movie, he said. He said, 0:14:28.756 --> 0:14:30.356 but you're a good enough writer. You can fool the 0:14:30.436 --> 0:14:33.076 reader into thinking you have an ending, and you probably 0:14:33.076 --> 0:14:35.796 it's also interesting. You should probably just write it. Three 0:14:35.876 --> 0:14:39.556 days later, FTX falls apart and he writes and says, 0:14:39.556 --> 0:14:43.196 can I direct the movie? It's like, this is incredible. 0:14:43.996 --> 0:14:46.796 You mentioned in court that they have not brought in 0:14:47.516 --> 0:14:52.556 effective altruism, which is sort of his entire mode of 0:14:52.556 --> 0:14:57.036 operation is based on. That. Is that what initially brought 0:14:57.116 --> 0:14:59.276 you into the story, that made you interested in him. 0:14:59.436 --> 0:15:01.356 It was one of the things that made me interested 0:15:01.396 --> 0:15:05.636 in him. I had this long standing curiosity about effective altruism. 0:15:05.916 --> 0:15:09.596 I didn't know the name, but back in I would 0:15:09.596 --> 0:15:10.836 it had been. It had been about the time Sam 0:15:10.876 --> 0:15:13.876 was starting on Wall Street twenty twelve, thirteen fourteen. I 0:15:13.916 --> 0:15:17.636 started to hear from friends about this guy they'd hired. 0:15:17.956 --> 0:15:20.916 It wasn't Sam, some other person who had come to 0:15:20.996 --> 0:15:23.836 work at some Wall Street firm, not because he wanted 0:15:23.916 --> 0:15:25.876 to get rich, or rather not because he wanted to 0:15:25.876 --> 0:15:27.916 get rich for himself, because he wanted to make money 0:15:27.956 --> 0:15:29.636 to give it all away. And I thought it was 0:15:29.676 --> 0:15:32.156 such a seditious idea when I first heard it, and 0:15:32.276 --> 0:15:34.636 kind of a fun idea. I thought this like might 0:15:34.676 --> 0:15:36.356 be the one thing that could sink Wall Street is 0:15:36.356 --> 0:15:38.076 that everybody there was actually there just to give the 0:15:38.076 --> 0:15:40.756 money away. So I had taken a slight interest in 0:15:40.756 --> 0:15:44.156 it long ago without knowing what it was, and that 0:15:44.196 --> 0:15:47.636 when I finally meet this dude who actually has done 0:15:47.676 --> 0:15:50.076 this in such a big way, it's one of the 0:15:50.116 --> 0:15:51.076 things that interests me. 0:15:51.316 --> 0:15:54.876 So you two go on a hike that first meeting. 0:15:55.276 --> 0:15:57.796 A walk, A walk, a two hour walk, A two 0:15:57.796 --> 0:15:58.276 hour walk. 0:15:58.356 --> 0:16:02.236 Yeah, we don't want to overemphasize his athletic prowess, yes 0:16:02.396 --> 0:16:05.996 or mine? You used to play baseball? Come on, come on, 0:16:06.436 --> 0:16:10.956 so tell me when you replay that converse now, can 0:16:10.996 --> 0:16:14.836 you still recall what exactly pushed you over the edge 0:16:14.876 --> 0:16:17.076 to say I need to spend the next couple of 0:16:17.116 --> 0:16:17.996 years of my life with him. 0:16:18.076 --> 0:16:19.436 I didn't say I need to spend the next couple 0:16:19.476 --> 0:16:20.716 of years of my life with him. I said to 0:16:20.796 --> 0:16:25.076 him at the end of two hours, this is so strange. 0:16:25.236 --> 0:16:26.956 Can I just come watch? I just want to be 0:16:26.956 --> 0:16:28.836 an observer in your life for a while and see 0:16:28.876 --> 0:16:31.476 what there is to do here, and the things that 0:16:31.556 --> 0:16:34.996 struck me as strange or interesting won the sums of 0:16:35.036 --> 0:16:38.156 money Forbes was either had just we was about to 0:16:38.156 --> 0:16:40.276 declare him worth twenty two and a half billion dollars. 0:16:40.636 --> 0:16:44.876 He was a child of two liberal law professors at Stanford. Clearly, 0:16:45.316 --> 0:16:47.796 in most other moments in human history, he would have 0:16:47.796 --> 0:16:50.516 been at best like a physics professor. He wasn't interested 0:16:50.556 --> 0:16:52.436 in money the way Wall Street people normally are, so 0:16:52.516 --> 0:16:54.796 that it was a different vibe about the money. It 0:16:54.836 --> 0:16:57.516 was like more ambitious in when I'm going to use 0:16:57.516 --> 0:17:00.596 it to do the fact he was quite open about 0:17:00.636 --> 0:17:03.796 how he was meddling in politics. He was The newspapers 0:17:03.796 --> 0:17:05.796 had him as Biden's second biggest donor. He said, no, 0:17:05.836 --> 0:17:07.676 I'm actually only the seventh. But still it's going to 0:17:07.716 --> 0:17:10.076 get very big. He was talking about a billion dollars 0:17:10.116 --> 0:17:13.756 into the next presidential election site. I thought that's just wild. 0:17:13.996 --> 0:17:16.676 He said something that was really interesting to me. He said, 0:17:16.676 --> 0:17:19.996 there's not enough money in politics, and I thought, I 0:17:19.996 --> 0:17:22.556 have always had the opposite view, and I thought, but 0:17:23.076 --> 0:17:25.916 his point was, when you see what the stakes are, 0:17:26.396 --> 0:17:28.676 and you see that the rules have changed to allow 0:17:28.796 --> 0:17:30.996 rich people to do basically whatever they want to do, 0:17:31.436 --> 0:17:33.996 it's amazing that rich people aren't doing even more that 0:17:33.996 --> 0:17:35.876 that was a very interesting kind of take on the 0:17:35.876 --> 0:17:37.956 whole thing, and if he was going to follow through 0:17:37.996 --> 0:17:39.756 on this, he was going to be a big deal 0:17:39.796 --> 0:17:43.956 in the elections. But by that point, the crypto markets 0:17:43.956 --> 0:17:47.916 had gone from being worth you know, cryptos as a 0:17:47.916 --> 0:17:50.916 as an asset class, gone from being worth zero in 0:17:50.916 --> 0:17:54.156 two thousand and eight to two trillion dollars, and I 0:17:54.196 --> 0:17:56.796 had taken I was thinking, I wonder what the social 0:17:56.836 --> 0:17:59.876 consequences of that kind of instant wealth creation is. Like, 0:17:59.916 --> 0:18:01.796 You've got people walking around two trillion dollars in their 0:18:01.796 --> 0:18:04.556 pocket who didn't have anything before, and here was this 0:18:04.876 --> 0:18:07.716 walking example of it that crypto had yielded it for 0:18:07.796 --> 0:18:09.996 him in a matter of eighteen months, twenty two billion dollars. 0:18:10.516 --> 0:18:12.116 I was kind of thinking, like, maybe he's a way 0:18:12.156 --> 0:18:15.676 to get it that, like the social consequences, So I 0:18:15.716 --> 0:18:16.836 just went and loitered for a year. 0:18:17.236 --> 0:18:20.436 So as you're loitering, he begins to explain that this 0:18:21.116 --> 0:18:25.556 effect of altruism, in part comes from Will mccaskell. This 0:18:25.996 --> 0:18:31.036 earn to give philosophy should you do good or make 0:18:31.116 --> 0:18:34.756 money and pay other people to do good? That anyone 0:18:34.796 --> 0:18:37.476 basically with the ability to go to wall Street has 0:18:37.476 --> 0:18:40.836 something like a moral obligation to do so. But when 0:18:40.876 --> 0:18:44.316 it comes to Sam, he described himself in one exchange 0:18:44.316 --> 0:18:47.756 with a colleague as quote, not really having a soul. 0:18:48.596 --> 0:18:51.196 In the end, there's a pretty decent argument that my 0:18:51.276 --> 0:18:54.876 empathy is fake, my feelings are fake, my facial reactions 0:18:54.916 --> 0:18:58.676 are fake. You yourself said that he does not have the 0:18:58.796 --> 0:19:02.076 full complement of human feelings. He does not have empathy. 0:19:02.676 --> 0:19:06.676 So if everything in his life is fake, do you 0:19:06.716 --> 0:19:10.236 believe his interest and effective altruism. 0:19:09.556 --> 0:19:14.556 Is fake his reasons not fake? Isn't explain that, Well, 0:19:14.596 --> 0:19:16.876 he's not attracted to effective altruism because he's got an 0:19:16.916 --> 0:19:20.676 emotional attachment to other people. I mean, the mistake people 0:19:20.716 --> 0:19:23.236 make is, oh, you're an effective altress because you really 0:19:23.276 --> 0:19:26.556 cared deeply about other people, like individual other people. You're 0:19:26.556 --> 0:19:29.476 saying he cares about mind, cares about math and humanity. 0:19:29.676 --> 0:19:32.476 Is like that seemed abstractly to be something he should 0:19:32.516 --> 0:19:35.436 be servicing, and the math is this is the best 0:19:35.436 --> 0:19:38.196 way to do that. Peter Singer would be the oldest 0:19:38.196 --> 0:19:40.276 living sort of exponent of this. That you have the 0:19:40.276 --> 0:19:43.156 idea that you have. The Singer idea is that you 0:19:43.276 --> 0:19:45.996 have you have a duty not just to the people 0:19:46.076 --> 0:19:48.476 around you, but to people you don't even know. The 0:19:48.596 --> 0:19:52.196 argument is, you have an obligation to give if sort 0:19:52.196 --> 0:19:54.356 of the cost to you is less than the benefit 0:19:54.516 --> 0:19:55.996 to others, it's a hard way to live. 0:19:56.076 --> 0:19:57.716 Did you buy that way of living? 0:19:57.956 --> 0:20:00.636 I admired the spirit of it. I admired the idea 0:20:01.556 --> 0:20:07.196 of expanding your circle of empathy or caring about people. 0:20:07.756 --> 0:20:09.956 To get someone to buy in that into that argument, 0:20:10.116 --> 0:20:12.236 don't go be a doctor in Africa, but instead go 0:20:12.316 --> 0:20:14.076 be a banker and pay to have ten doctors go 0:20:14.116 --> 0:20:17.316 to Africa. It really helps if they don't actually get 0:20:17.356 --> 0:20:21.356 any emotional benefit to physically helping other people, you know, 0:20:21.796 --> 0:20:24.076 there's no feeling there to start with, they just buy 0:20:24.076 --> 0:20:26.756 the argument. But once you're in this argument and the 0:20:26.876 --> 0:20:29.516 argument is about, and this is what these philosophers that 0:20:29.596 --> 0:20:33.516 are at Oxford eventually do. They morph the movement away 0:20:33.596 --> 0:20:38.516 from helping living people on the planet now to maximizing 0:20:38.556 --> 0:20:41.556 the lives you say, for all eternity. And so this 0:20:41.636 --> 0:20:44.156 is the real weirdness to the movement that Sam buys into, 0:20:44.236 --> 0:20:46.996 and that actually the movement buys into is when it 0:20:47.036 --> 0:20:50.076 flips to existential risk. And Sam, if you when I 0:20:50.116 --> 0:20:53.236 meet him, he's on the practical end of the spectrum 0:20:53.476 --> 0:20:57.036 of the people in this conversation because he's thinking, yeah, 0:20:57.036 --> 0:21:01.116 there's this list of risks less asteroid strikes or climate 0:21:01.236 --> 0:21:05.996 change or AI for example, pandemic or pandemic prevention, and 0:21:06.236 --> 0:21:09.796 or Donald Trump's democracy or actually the actually Donald Trump 0:21:09.836 --> 0:21:11.516 is on his list. There is a kind of like 0:21:11.916 --> 0:21:14.756 ven diagram. It's the risks in one circle, but the 0:21:14.796 --> 0:21:18.156 tractability of them in another circle. Like some of these things, 0:21:18.156 --> 0:21:19.636 you don't know what to do about them. I mean, 0:21:19.716 --> 0:21:21.996 what do you give money to just to prevent AI 0:21:22.116 --> 0:21:24.876 from right now? It's very hard to know. But when 0:21:24.876 --> 0:21:26.596 we were on that walk, one of the things that 0:21:26.596 --> 0:21:28.476 did interest me was, I just come out of writing 0:21:28.516 --> 0:21:32.756 the Premonition. It was appalling to me the governments weren't 0:21:32.796 --> 0:21:36.956 being more aggressive on the subject of especially building a 0:21:36.996 --> 0:21:40.876 better a kind of better prediction a model for disease. 0:21:41.516 --> 0:21:44.956 There is every reason why we should be building essentially 0:21:45.356 --> 0:21:48.876 a national weather service for disease. And the lack of 0:21:49.116 --> 0:21:51.836 real energy behind that movement, not that it doesn't exist, 0:21:51.916 --> 0:21:55.356 it's just sort of lack of energy was shocking to me. 0:21:55.476 --> 0:21:57.876