1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: Hi, Mark, So are you ready to talk about US politics? 2 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:14,600 Speaker 1: Absolutely not, Danta as a DC native, all I want 3 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: to talk about the Nationals. They won the World Series 4 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:19,599 Speaker 1: this past week, and I vote let's just skip energy, 5 00:00:19,640 --> 00:00:22,040 Speaker 1: climate in politics and just talk about baseball. So this 6 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,479 Speaker 1: is the first World Series championship in d C in 7 00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:27,159 Speaker 1: eighty six years, by the oldest team by age of 8 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: the of any squad ever who started the season with 9 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: nineteen wins and thirty one losses. The worst team start 10 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:34,839 Speaker 1: for a team that ever won the World Series animated 11 00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: the playoffs is a wild card and based elimination. Five 12 00:00:37,080 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: times throughout talk about that. That was about as much 13 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: as I've ever wanted to know about the Nationals. Thanks 14 00:00:43,680 --> 00:00:46,559 Speaker 1: a lot for that, Mark. Well, how about something a 15 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,720 Speaker 1: little closer to my heart. Let's talk about the US 16 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 1: pulling out of the Paris Agreement. A couple of weeks 17 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: back on this show, we talked about how the US 18 00:00:55,120 --> 00:00:58,120 Speaker 1: was technically still in but now it looks like we 19 00:00:58,200 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: are starting to push the paper work around and the 20 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 1: US is officially pulling out. This is uh tough, because 21 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: there's just so much going on in d C these days. 22 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:12,040 Speaker 1: Let's say perhaps it was the best of times, it 23 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 1: was the worst of times, or maybe just the most 24 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: distracted of times, because it is really hard to get 25 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:19,560 Speaker 1: a sense for what is actually going on in the 26 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: areas that b e F covers, because it seems pretty 27 00:01:22,440 --> 00:01:26,040 Speaker 1: much everybody is distracted by the campaign and these topics 28 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,119 Speaker 1: aren't exactly front of mind for some of the candidates 29 00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: and their speeches. Hopefully we can change that. Yeah, we're 30 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,240 Speaker 1: in luck. So today we've got Ethan Zindler with us, 31 00:01:35,280 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 1: who leads benef in the America's but actually, very importantly 32 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:40,400 Speaker 1: back in the day, um, we were both based in 33 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 1: d C and we'd go to the Nationals games together 34 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:44,319 Speaker 1: when they were a brand new team. Really market you 35 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 1: had to bring U back to the national absolutely did. Anyway, 36 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,360 Speaker 1: let's talk about the fact that Ethan's and there wrote 37 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 1: a VI I P comment earlier this year for BEENF 38 00:01:52,920 --> 00:01:56,680 Speaker 1: titled time is running Short for Trump's anticlimate agenda, as 39 00:01:56,720 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 1: well as an endlest reaction that was titled Democrats go 40 00:01:59,760 --> 00:02:02,520 Speaker 1: to hown on climate. You can find both of these 41 00:02:02,520 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg terminal at b NF go or on 42 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:09,120 Speaker 1: BNF dot com. Also, please remember that BNF does not 43 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 1: provide investment or strategy advice, and you can hear the 44 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:13,960 Speaker 1: full disclaimer at the end of the show. This is 45 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 1: Dana Perkins and this is Mark Taylor and you're listening 46 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: to Switch on the BNF podcast. So let's hear from 47 00:02:19,080 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: Ethan on US politics and the current say to play 48 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: for transport, energy, climate. Ethan, thank you for joining us today. 49 00:02:25,760 --> 00:02:27,160 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. It's nice to be here in 50 00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,359 Speaker 1: the studio. Ethan is joining us from Washington, d C. 51 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: Where I would say most people who live there no 52 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 1: a thing or two about politics, but fortunately it's actually 53 00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 1: part of your job. UM. And today we're going to 54 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:42,000 Speaker 1: delve into three things that are the b NF side 55 00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 1: of the political spectrum. So let's dive into transportation, energy, 56 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: and carbon emissions. Which one should we start with? What 57 00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:51,440 Speaker 1: do you think, Mark? Transport sounds great? So what's going 58 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 1: on in moving around in the US? Gosh, what's not where? 59 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 1: We We like to drive big cars in the US, 60 00:02:57,160 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 1: as you as you know, we like to drive very 61 00:02:58,880 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: large vehicles and UM, as a result of that and 62 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,919 Speaker 1: the fact that our CEO two emissions have been declining 63 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: from the power sector, the transportation sector is now the 64 00:03:08,880 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: single's biggest contributor to CEO two emissions in the US. 65 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:16,079 Speaker 1: And while we have been making generally actually progress on 66 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,560 Speaker 1: improving mileage efficiency of the cars that people drive, that's 67 00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:22,440 Speaker 1: actually started to level off a bit. Uh. And the 68 00:03:22,480 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: main thing in terms of policy and politics is a 69 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: giant fight between the Trump administration and the state of 70 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: California about vehicle standards. UH. Tough one to say, right, 71 00:03:35,440 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: I mean, basically, the what's at stake here is the 72 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,920 Speaker 1: you know, setting standards that would arrive eventually from thirty 73 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:47,160 Speaker 1: six to forty six miles per gallon requirement UM into 74 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:50,720 Speaker 1: about halfway into the next decade. California and a bunch 75 00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 1: of other states essentially have set the targets themselves. The 76 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: federal government under Obama was syncd up with California. UH. 77 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: And then Trump came along and said, to wait a second. 78 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 1: You know, I'm the federal government. I don't like this policy, 79 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:06,560 Speaker 1: and they put the brakes on uh. And that has 80 00:04:06,640 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 1: led to a huge fight between California and the federal 81 00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: government because for years California has had what's called a 82 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:16,479 Speaker 1: waiver to essentially set its own policies, and now the 83 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: Trump administration is challenging that and it all appears likely 84 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:24,880 Speaker 1: to go to court. One further complication out of all 85 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: this is that four major automakers have basically said that 86 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 1: they're perfectly happy to comply with California standards. Uh. And 87 00:04:32,279 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 1: meanwhile they and all the other automakers are saying, wait 88 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,120 Speaker 1: a second, we just give us one set of rules 89 00:04:37,120 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: that we can abide by here. We do not like 90 00:04:40,040 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: multiple sets of rules that are difficult to understand, and 91 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,359 Speaker 1: we don't want to make two sets of vehicles to 92 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,599 Speaker 1: serve the US market overall. So there's a fair amount 93 00:04:49,600 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 1: of sort of confusion. Um, but to some degree, Um, 94 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 1: you know, I think the smart thinking a lot of 95 00:04:55,320 --> 00:04:58,080 Speaker 1: among a lot of automakers is they better continue to 96 00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:01,480 Speaker 1: try to improve efficiency because a they don't know who's 97 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: going to be president next and whether this is all 98 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: going to change again, and be they don't know how 99 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:07,400 Speaker 1: this court case is going to shake out, and so 100 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: at the end of the day, they may still end 101 00:05:09,000 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: up being left with something that looks a lot like 102 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: what California and the Obama administration had wanted to do. All. 103 00:05:14,960 --> 00:05:18,800 Speaker 1: In reality, do automakers even make two sets of vehicles? 104 00:05:18,839 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 1: I mean, presumably they would cater to the more stringent market, 105 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 1: and then that would have an impact on the rest 106 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 1: of the country, which may in fact be the argument 107 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: from a policy standpoint, is that correct, that's the conservative 108 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:31,640 Speaker 1: thing to do if you're operating in a market, and 109 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,880 Speaker 1: presumably that's what most automakers are doing right now. I mean, 110 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: I would say, you know, look, I'm not I'm not 111 00:05:36,640 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 1: the regulatory affairs person that you know, GM or whatever, 112 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,640 Speaker 1: but the smartest thing to do would be to assume 113 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 1: you're going to get the toughest set of standards and 114 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: continue to plan accordingly. And of course we're seeing lots 115 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,920 Speaker 1: of announcements around electric vehicles and all kinds of efforts 116 00:05:49,920 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: that it suggests the automakers are trying to do some 117 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 1: of the right things. On the other hand, it's worth 118 00:05:55,680 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 1: noting that GM and Forward in particular make huge amounts 119 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:03,159 Speaker 1: of their money off of selling pickup trucks and SUVs, 120 00:06:03,320 --> 00:06:05,679 Speaker 1: which Florida F one series I believe is the most 121 00:06:05,839 --> 00:06:08,360 Speaker 1: popular car in the United States. Is it not very 122 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: popular car and very profitable for the manufacturer? And GM 123 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:17,080 Speaker 1: and Dodge have similar models, So yeah, they're they're being 124 00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 1: pulled in multiple directions. So this dovetails really well. With emissions, 125 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 1: because this is a big part of the emissions pie. 126 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: But then you have the part of the emissions pie 127 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: that comes from the energy industry. What is happening there 128 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:33,479 Speaker 1: from a federal I guess, and maybe then to state level, 129 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,479 Speaker 1: well a lot. I mean, let's start with the big picture, 130 00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: which is the US and the power sector is rapidly decarbonizing. 131 00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,280 Speaker 1: So we used to get about half our power from 132 00:06:42,320 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: from coal really as recently as like ten twelve years ago, 133 00:06:46,040 --> 00:06:48,200 Speaker 1: and now that's down this year, maybe as low as 134 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 1: tent by the time of the year is over. So 135 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:54,560 Speaker 1: it's a huge decline in reliance on coal, and basically 136 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 1: all of that has been made up by a combination 137 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: of natural gas, wind, and solar with it most really 138 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:03,240 Speaker 1: in that order more or less in terms of the 139 00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,520 Speaker 1: contributions that are being made. So our CEO two emissions 140 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 1: have been going down pretty dramatically as a result of 141 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,400 Speaker 1: all those changes in the power sector. And that's I 142 00:07:11,400 --> 00:07:14,680 Speaker 1: think generally, Um, you know, certainly from a climate perspective, 143 00:07:14,760 --> 00:07:18,040 Speaker 1: very good news. Um, you know, there's then plenty of 144 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: other things going on beneath the surface around all of that. 145 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: As you add more renewables, it creates new complications for markets. Uh. 146 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,440 Speaker 1: And meanwhile, Trump, you know from the from the Washington perspective, 147 00:07:28,520 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: Trump ran promising to revitalize the coal industry and that 148 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:37,040 Speaker 1: is not been an easy thing to accomplish despite his 149 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: best efforts. So what is causing the volume of coal retirements? 150 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 1: I know that we definitely have a house of view, 151 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: but from the US standpoint, we'll just start with the 152 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,240 Speaker 1: fact that these coal plants are ancient. I mean, we 153 00:07:49,320 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: have plants that are some plantses are like over forty 154 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 1: fifty sixty years old. The average age, I think is 155 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:57,720 Speaker 1: well over thirty years old. So you know, we have 156 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: these are not efficiently operateding you know, projects in many ways, 157 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 1: and so the economics aren't great. And then you combine 158 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: that with the fact that we have super cheap gas 159 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,840 Speaker 1: in the US, I mean really in West Texas it's 160 00:08:10,840 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 1: almost free um at this point. And then you have 161 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:16,760 Speaker 1: the fact that when renewables participate in the grid, they've 162 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,600 Speaker 1: been been into essentially zero cost uh. And so those 163 00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 1: factors basically are effectively driving coal out of the market. 164 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 1: There are certainly some regulations on coal. We have the 165 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:31,160 Speaker 1: Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative in the Northeastern states that puts frankly, 166 00:08:31,200 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: a relatively small price on c O two emissions, and 167 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: we have a carbon program out in the West coast 168 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 1: similar relatively small price on carbon. But the main thing 169 00:08:39,200 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: has just been the economics are not working for coal, 170 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: and now on top of that, no one's going to 171 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 1: finance coal. That's the last thing is that, you know, 172 00:08:45,920 --> 00:08:48,520 Speaker 1: banks and everybody have generally pledged not to finance coal 173 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:52,160 Speaker 1: at all. There's been a pull back on restrictions. Could 174 00:08:52,160 --> 00:08:54,280 Speaker 1: you outline what some of those have been. I know 175 00:08:54,320 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: some have been coming from the e p A on 176 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: various aspects of kind of generally environmental things, but which 177 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 1: of those specifically address things like carbon emissions and greenhouse 178 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 1: gases more widely? So it's worth just before I even 179 00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: go all the way down this road, I just say, 180 00:09:10,440 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: wasn't noting that I don't think this really even matters 181 00:09:12,559 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 1: that much. But the reality of it is is that 182 00:09:15,120 --> 00:09:19,680 Speaker 1: the Trump administration came in and immediately sought to undo 183 00:09:20,280 --> 00:09:23,559 Speaker 1: what the Obama administration had done, which was a regulation 184 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 1: that was sort of informally known as the Clean Power Plan, 185 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:30,080 Speaker 1: and the Clean Power Plan essentially set a goal of 186 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 1: reducing CEO two emissions from the power sector. At at 187 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: it requested or essentially demanded that states formulate plans to 188 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 1: do this individually. If they didn't comply, the federal government 189 00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:44,000 Speaker 1: was going to do it for them. Frankly, we at 190 00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:45,800 Speaker 1: ben F and the U S were never that impressed 191 00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 1: by the ambition of that regulation to begin with, because 192 00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:50,599 Speaker 1: we thought that the US power sector was going to 193 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:54,199 Speaker 1: decrbonize anyway. So then Trump came in and made a 194 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:56,120 Speaker 1: huge deal, Oh, you were getting rid of this policy. 195 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 1: We're putting the brakes on it, and they've done that. 196 00:09:58,000 --> 00:09:59,959 Speaker 1: But the reality of it is, at least an RV 197 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: is it's not that big a deal because the policy 198 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: itself was not what was going to be driving the 199 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 1: market anyway. So they did put the brakes on that regulation. 200 00:10:08,160 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 1: They are they we rewriting it um. But you know, 201 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 1: reality marches on and basically, coal plants have continued to 202 00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:17,600 Speaker 1: retire in the US, the economics continue to not make sense. 203 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: Gas continues to be super cheap, renewables are getting more 204 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,600 Speaker 1: and more mandated, and so generally speaking, the trend is 205 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: not you know been you know that you know hasn't 206 00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:29,079 Speaker 1: changed very much at all. So there's the real power 207 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,800 Speaker 1: in the US lie with the states. It's a big 208 00:10:31,920 --> 00:10:33,920 Speaker 1: part of the story. And in fact, you know, one 209 00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: of the things that people don't talk that much about 210 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,080 Speaker 1: in terms of Trump and energy is is certainly a 211 00:10:38,080 --> 00:10:40,960 Speaker 1: focus on his sort of efforts to to deregulate and 212 00:10:41,040 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 1: is very outspoken, let's just say, unconventional views about climate 213 00:10:45,320 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: change um. But the reality of it is that in 214 00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: two thousand and eighteen there was such a backlash against 215 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:55,240 Speaker 1: Trump at the state level with Democrats a you know, 216 00:10:55,320 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: first they won back you know, the House of Representatives 217 00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 1: at the federal level, but back the state level, they 218 00:11:00,240 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: want to think, well over three hundred state legislative seats. 219 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: They took control of an additional six state legislative chambers. 220 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,640 Speaker 1: And what that's meant is that a very productive twenty 221 00:11:09,760 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 1: nineteen in terms of policies supporting clean energy. I think 222 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: we have about half a dozen new states that now 223 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: are aiming for renewable energy and mandating it UM. States 224 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:23,280 Speaker 1: like Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico others that are all 225 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,920 Speaker 1: aiming that. Maine has passed something very recently as well. 226 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:29,000 Speaker 1: So the backlash that's taken place at the state level 227 00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: has been pretty strong. Um. Now, granted, not all states. 228 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 1: You know, Oklahoma, you know, Kansas, you know, they're not 229 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:37,920 Speaker 1: you know, and by the way, those are those states 230 00:11:37,960 --> 00:11:40,680 Speaker 1: are very strong for for huge states for renewables, but 231 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 1: not because they're like necessary because they're mandating in any 232 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,560 Speaker 1: kind of huge way. Um. But the reality is that 233 00:11:46,600 --> 00:11:49,040 Speaker 1: the gap between what the federal government's trying to do 234 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: and what some states are trying to do is getting 235 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: wider and wider. But in the US, states do wield 236 00:11:54,080 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: a lot of power over it. They can mandate certain 237 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,720 Speaker 1: amounts of renewables come online, they can sign onto carbon 238 00:12:00,040 --> 00:12:02,679 Speaker 1: duction goals, all kinds of things. Is it still needed 239 00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:04,480 Speaker 1: to mandate these things to come online? Or is it 240 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 1: just kind of happened? Well, I think there's certainly some 241 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,000 Speaker 1: particularly maybe some not quite with an environmental community, but 242 00:12:10,080 --> 00:12:12,679 Speaker 1: some who Yeah, I would say some environmental community look 243 00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: at the power sector and are kind of starting to 244 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,280 Speaker 1: They won't say this out loud, but they're sort of saying, okay, 245 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:21,120 Speaker 1: power sector, check the box. Like okay, decarbonizing coals kind 246 00:12:21,120 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 1: of on its way out. We want to make sure 247 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,520 Speaker 1: we get rid of that last Eventually, what will be 248 00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:27,720 Speaker 1: ten of coal that will be pretty hard to take offline. 249 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:30,520 Speaker 1: So there's definitely still a focus on that, and I 250 00:12:30,520 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: think some of the environmental community are also starting to 251 00:12:32,480 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 1: point the finger up gas and not wanting to build 252 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,839 Speaker 1: more gas. At that point. It's a bridge fuel, right, Well, 253 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 1: that's me. That's interesting. So well, I mean, under the 254 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,440 Speaker 1: Obama administration, I think, in my opinion, these gas became 255 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 1: sort of viewed as, yeah, a big part of the solution, 256 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: and I think a lot of people now are at 257 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: least again on the environmental side, are starting to rethink 258 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,280 Speaker 1: whether they want to be supportive of that and the 259 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: new sort of pivot. It's not clearly been stated, but 260 00:12:59,160 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: it's just like, Okay, we've built a lot of gas. 261 00:13:00,880 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 1: It's helped bring a lot of coal offline. And again 262 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,720 Speaker 1: this is the environmental community perspective, but let's not build 263 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:10,840 Speaker 1: any more gas because now we want to actually, you know, 264 00:13:10,880 --> 00:13:13,800 Speaker 1: the bridge is enough bridging. Let's let's you know, renewables 265 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 1: are cheap enough, we can do more of this. And 266 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 1: by the way, renewables plus batteries are cheap enough that 267 00:13:18,640 --> 00:13:20,600 Speaker 1: they can actually compete with gas, and so I think 268 00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 1: that's actually a fair argument for them to be making. 269 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 1: But back to the original questions sort of, you know, 270 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,679 Speaker 1: on the power sector, that then isn't raised some questions. 271 00:13:28,720 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: If we say, and I'm not saying entirely agree, but 272 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: if we say problem solved, power sector decarbonizing, let's move 273 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: on to other stuff, that does bring more of the 274 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: focus back onto transportation. Because transportation is now the largest 275 00:13:40,640 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: contributor to CEO two emissions in the United States, and 276 00:13:43,880 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 1: we do like to drive big cars, and can we 277 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:48,920 Speaker 1: do more? I think that's a fair question. I mean, 278 00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: what do you think can be done in the transportation Well, 279 00:13:51,040 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 1: I mean we're certainly seeing a lot of a rollout 280 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:56,240 Speaker 1: of these new electric vehicle models, and I think that 281 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:59,240 Speaker 1: are making a dent. Not really understand trucks, right, I 282 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,200 Speaker 1: mean not in a big way. Well on the trucking side, Um, 283 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:05,559 Speaker 1: you know, Tesla does have its own you know, the 284 00:14:05,800 --> 00:14:11,320 Speaker 1: team wheeler that they they're gonna say they're gonna roll out. Yeah. 285 00:14:11,320 --> 00:14:13,400 Speaker 1: Well there's Rivian Is saying that they're going to make 286 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: an electric you know, pickup truck. I I'm I'm dubious 287 00:14:17,400 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: that we'll see that mass adoption of that sort of 288 00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 1: any time, you know, really soon. Um, you know, if 289 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:25,840 Speaker 1: you're asking me what my prescription is for decarbonizing the 290 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:29,720 Speaker 1: transportation sector, I would say the you know, there are 291 00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: new efforts, certainly to support electric vehicles. U. Senator Chuck Schumer, 292 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: the minority leader in the Senate, just this morning, has 293 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:40,000 Speaker 1: a piece in the New York Times about his effort 294 00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: to support e V rollout and um, tying it to 295 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: manufacturing into jobs, into batteries and all that kind of stuff, 296 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: which I think is I think can can garner support 297 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: from across multiple parties, both you know, the automakers, the unions, 298 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: and you know and others environmentalists as well. UM. But 299 00:14:56,400 --> 00:14:59,360 Speaker 1: at the basic question of like Americans liking to to 300 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,880 Speaker 1: drive cars they like to drive, I would say this 301 00:15:02,920 --> 00:15:04,960 Speaker 1: I have some more of a kind of qualitative answer, 302 00:15:05,000 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: which is, like I having driven an electric vehicle for 303 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 1: six years now, I would make the contention that we 304 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,120 Speaker 1: do all the analysis of NF all the time about 305 00:15:13,160 --> 00:15:16,240 Speaker 1: the point where the economic crossover point comes and you 306 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:18,280 Speaker 1: get the total cost of ownership, blah blah blah, all 307 00:15:18,320 --> 00:15:21,480 Speaker 1: that kind of stuff that makes sense. Evs are better products. 308 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 1: They're actually better in terms of they don't break down 309 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 1: as much much less, they're quieter, the acceleration is awesome, 310 00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:32,680 Speaker 1: so they're super fun to drive, and so I think 311 00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 1: there's sort of an intangible element to this where the 312 00:15:35,920 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 1: more people get conditioned to actually trying an evy, the 313 00:15:39,000 --> 00:15:41,720 Speaker 1: more they'll like them. I think the range anxiety issue 314 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 1: is one that people just completely over magnify in the head. 315 00:15:46,800 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: What's that you have it? I don't, but I have 316 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:52,600 Speaker 1: people in my family who do have, so I think 317 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:54,240 Speaker 1: you can get over that. I think the other thing is, 318 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: I guess my point that is trying to make earlier 319 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: is that I think if people would look practically at 320 00:15:57,880 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: how they actually use their cars. We have a lot 321 00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:03,360 Speaker 1: of families with two cars in the United States, many many, 322 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 1: which I know is a foreign concept largely here in 323 00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: the UK and a lot of places in Europe, but 324 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:09,800 Speaker 1: I don't know, it may not even be maybe something 325 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 1: under a majority, but a very large percentage of American 326 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:16,480 Speaker 1: drivers have two cars. If they would stop and just think, Okay, 327 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: how do I use these two cars? I think they 328 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 1: would recognize that they could easily have one car that 329 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,320 Speaker 1: literally could have a range of less than a hundred 330 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 1: miles if they were, you know, if they would just 331 00:16:26,280 --> 00:16:28,520 Speaker 1: think about it, a little bit, but a hundred fifty 332 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 1: two miles definitely to fifty plus absolutely is fine. And 333 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:35,200 Speaker 1: so I guess the point is there's a car in 334 00:16:35,240 --> 00:16:38,280 Speaker 1: many people's garage that's ready to be a TV already, 335 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:40,840 Speaker 1: and they just don't they don't think about it. But 336 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,080 Speaker 1: if they go for a test drive and they think 337 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 1: a little bit about it, they'll be like, wow, ay, 338 00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: I'll save money if I get this car ultimately because 339 00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:49,640 Speaker 1: I won't be paying for gasoline. B I won't have 340 00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: to go to a gas station. I'll charge it at 341 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: home for the most part, um, you know, and and 342 00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: see it'll be fun to drive. So I think people 343 00:16:57,400 --> 00:17:00,840 Speaker 1: will do that. I think that is what Transport Team 344 00:17:00,920 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 1: is actually seen that in these two car household where 345 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:05,639 Speaker 1: you are seeing e V adoption, you're seeing it as 346 00:17:05,680 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: a second vehicle because that range anxiety does continue to exist, 347 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 1: and that switching over to two cars isn't necessarily happening, um, 348 00:17:13,240 --> 00:17:15,439 Speaker 1: and it's not Just be clear, it's not crazy, right, Like, 349 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 1: you know, I gotta go see you know my folks 350 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 1: up in Boston. It's an eight hour drive from DC 351 00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,119 Speaker 1: to Boston or whatever it is. Yeah, I need to 352 00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: I don't want to. I don't want to be like 353 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: stuck on a turnpike somewhere waiting for some guy, you know, 354 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: finished chargings test slot. So what's in your garage, what's 355 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:32,879 Speaker 1: what's your what's your demographic on that one you got? 356 00:17:32,920 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 1: But one of each? We we sort of we did 357 00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: for six years. We had a Leaf UM and we 358 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: had a Honda CRV UM and the Honda CRV was 359 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 1: the long haul vehicle and the Leaf of the short up. 360 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:47,840 Speaker 1: We have further complications because we have a kid who's 361 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 1: going off to college now and will soon be a 362 00:17:49,359 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 1: one car family. So our compromises. We have a plug 363 00:17:53,040 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: in hybrid electric vehicle, which is a Volvo. So basically 364 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 1: my wife commutescent electric, but then on the weekends, if 365 00:18:00,600 --> 00:18:02,679 Speaker 1: we want to go much longer distance, that car can 366 00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 1: go much further than that. Let your hair down. It's 367 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 1: a sweet Vehicle's let's talk happy place. So let's let's 368 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: talk a little bit about how you're charging that vehicle 369 00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 1: and what's actually feeding into the grid. Now, I have 370 00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:22,479 Speaker 1: a specific question, which I know you're a little bit 371 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:25,679 Speaker 1: passionate about. It has to do with wind. So you 372 00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:29,479 Speaker 1: mentioned earlier on in this episode that natural gas wind, solar, 373 00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 1: you know, maybe having a bit momentum in the US, 374 00:18:33,560 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 1: and I'm thinking specifically wind. When you say wind in 375 00:18:35,880 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 1: the US, you mean on shore wind, but there is 376 00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 1: offshore wind potential. Thus far, nothing installed correct across all 377 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 1: of the United State. Yes, we have I think five. 378 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:52,040 Speaker 1: It's okay that run around that to nothing. I think 379 00:18:52,080 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: that's fair. Okay. So there have been projects that have 380 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 1: gotten close and not worked out. My my in laws 381 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: live out Cape Cod, so I'm I'm somewhat familiar with 382 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 1: the Cape Wind projects that did not happen. But now 383 00:19:05,760 --> 00:19:09,399 Speaker 1: there is this Vineyard Wind series of projects, and there 384 00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:14,000 Speaker 1: is some regulatory elements that are actually quite pertinent right 385 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 1: now at this point kind of at the end of 386 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, which will impact the success or maybe lack thereof, 387 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,919 Speaker 1: of this project. Can you talk about that a little bit? Yeah, So, 388 00:19:23,080 --> 00:19:25,840 Speaker 1: I mean that's well, first, just thanks for bringing up 389 00:19:25,840 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: Cape Wind, because way back when I used to be 390 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 1: a reporter writing about that project seventeen years ago now 391 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 1: out on Cape Cod and and at the time that 392 00:19:33,880 --> 00:19:36,280 Speaker 1: project was they eventually did to build the project for 393 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,840 Speaker 1: about two hundred dollars a mega one hour Vineyard Wind, 394 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,439 Speaker 1: which is sort of the it's not even fair to 395 00:19:42,480 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 1: call it successor about the newer, you know, much newer project. 396 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: They're looking to build that project about twenty miles south 397 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:52,040 Speaker 1: of Martha's Vineyard in a tucket, so out of basically 398 00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:55,880 Speaker 1: out of eyesight for most people. UM, and they are 399 00:19:55,920 --> 00:19:58,199 Speaker 1: looking to their pp A that they offered was I 400 00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,119 Speaker 1: think sixty five actually, I mean about a third of 401 00:20:02,119 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 1: the price, really cheap by comparison, UM and UM as 402 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 1: you know, as luck would have it. On Tuesday, I 403 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:12,960 Speaker 1: was with our colleague Rachel Schiffman at the American Wind 404 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 1: Energy Association's Offshore Wind Conference, which is held in Boston, 405 00:20:16,680 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 1: which is actually really big to do. They were about 406 00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: people there and talking about know what they want to 407 00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: talk about was, you know, the potential for you know, 408 00:20:25,920 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: they're talking about twenty six gigats. We're saying probably like 409 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:32,800 Speaker 1: fifteen the seventeen gig wats, but like real, real built 410 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:36,320 Speaker 1: by real build potentially in the US. And that's our view, UM. 411 00:20:36,400 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: But it's all actually keying right now on Vineyard Wind, 412 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:44,040 Speaker 1: which is one project which is co owned by Copenhabien 413 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:48,320 Speaker 1: Investment Partners and Infrastructure Partners and one other and UM 414 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,000 Speaker 1: that project looked like it was in great shape. Uh, 415 00:20:52,040 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 1: And they did cheap and they won contracts, and they 416 00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:59,000 Speaker 1: got their environmental impact statement work done and they thought 417 00:20:59,000 --> 00:21:01,760 Speaker 1: they were pretty much done. And then all of a sudden, UM, 418 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:06,520 Speaker 1: the agency that regulates ocean energy activity, said wait, wait, wait, wait, 419 00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: hold on, we want to do an extra review on this. 420 00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: And that came last summer. And now we're in a 421 00:21:15,080 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 1: kind of a weird place because basically, this entire industry 422 00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,480 Speaker 1: is just like ready to go prime to hire people, 423 00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: build ports, like do stuff and and and everybody was there. 424 00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 1: You know, we got the guys who make you know, 425 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:28,720 Speaker 1: the basis and the monitoring devices and everything like that, 426 00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:32,399 Speaker 1: and um, and now everyone's waiting. And that is a 427 00:21:32,480 --> 00:21:35,600 Speaker 1: decision you know, that is now effectively in the hands 428 00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 1: of the Trump administration. Now. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, 429 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:44,640 Speaker 1: which which oversees this, is run by someone who's actually 430 00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,000 Speaker 1: a career person. He's not a you know, he's not 431 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,919 Speaker 1: someone you would call Trump guy. UM. And you know, 432 00:21:51,000 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: I think he gave some pretty rational reasons for why 433 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:55,040 Speaker 1: he wants to hold the project up. But I think 434 00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,240 Speaker 1: if there's not some action by next March, which was 435 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:58,960 Speaker 1: kind of the end of the period which they sort 436 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:01,760 Speaker 1: of regulatory period for reviewing this, I think everybody in 437 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,199 Speaker 1: the industry is gonna get pretty antsy and start to 438 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: become very suspicious about what the delay has been here. 439 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,240 Speaker 1: But it sounds like tomorrow it is pretty it's pretty 440 00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:13,200 Speaker 1: soon and and um, you know, just to complicate things 441 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: without getting to too much detail, we have tax credits 442 00:22:15,840 --> 00:22:18,479 Speaker 1: that are critically important to the economics of projects, and 443 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,159 Speaker 1: already this delay is going to mean that that project 444 00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:24,639 Speaker 1: gets less tax credit support than they were expecting, and 445 00:22:24,680 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: it makes the economics much more challenging than they were So. Um, anyways, 446 00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,960 Speaker 1: a fascinating couple of days to hear because, like I said, 447 00:22:31,960 --> 00:22:34,199 Speaker 1: the industry is really primed and ready to go. And 448 00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,880 Speaker 1: by the industry, I'm mostly talking about like companies from 449 00:22:37,920 --> 00:22:44,400 Speaker 1: over here, um, you know, like or Stead. Um, well, 450 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:46,359 Speaker 1: there is it is a global market, right and we 451 00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,639 Speaker 1: we are certainly expecting a lot of build elsewhere in 452 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,720 Speaker 1: Asia and other places. Yeah, but it's on the other hand, 453 00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:54,399 Speaker 1: like you know, I haven't grown up in Boston and 454 00:22:54,520 --> 00:22:56,440 Speaker 1: being from New England, like there's a lot of people 455 00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 1: who'd like to work in this industry. New Bedford southern 456 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:01,119 Speaker 1: New England has been hurting at aonomically big time for 457 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,719 Speaker 1: a long time, and so there's a real potentially are 458 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:07,320 Speaker 1: and I think would be enormously disappointing if this doesn't 459 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 1: come through. Is the energry picking winners in terms of technology? 460 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:13,680 Speaker 1: I mean they're pushing for coal but kind of rolling 461 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: it back on offshore. When does that sound right or no? 462 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:20,359 Speaker 1: Are we talking about the means? The administration so you 463 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,879 Speaker 1: know they've wanted to UM and there have been various 464 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:27,760 Speaker 1: discussions and regulatory efforts to try to be supportive of 465 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,280 Speaker 1: coal by making the argument that you know, that represents 466 00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: some fundamentally critical part of energy security in the United States. 467 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:38,800 Speaker 1: But without going into all the sort of technical details 468 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 1: and things like that, it's it's basically amounted to pretty 469 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,439 Speaker 1: much nothing so far. UM. There is a there is 470 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: some studying going on at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission 471 00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:51,240 Speaker 1: about about these questions, but it's all very tied into 472 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:53,800 Speaker 1: a lot of different things like the rights of states 473 00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:56,400 Speaker 1: to do how what they want to do, UM, the 474 00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 1: concept of free markets and how those are supposed to operate. UM. 475 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,480 Speaker 1: There are a lot of complications associated with trying to 476 00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:07,720 Speaker 1: prop up one technology, and I think that frankly, people 477 00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:11,240 Speaker 1: within the administration, you know, those who are smart and 478 00:24:11,280 --> 00:24:14,520 Speaker 1: those who know the energy industry know that trying to 479 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 1: keep a fifty five year old coal plant online, you know, 480 00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:21,439 Speaker 1: it's hard to do and uh and may not be realistic. 481 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:23,840 Speaker 1: I remember the one that you and I toured in 482 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:28,440 Speaker 1: Alexandria is now luxury apartments, isn't it. No, it's not, 483 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: but I wish I wish it was something, because it's 484 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 1: an amazing facility. And I mean joking aside, Like we 485 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,520 Speaker 1: we took a tour and when it was that maybe 486 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:40,760 Speaker 1: over ten years ago, and you walk into these plants 487 00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,640 Speaker 1: and you feel like you I mean even then, which 488 00:24:42,680 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 1: was whenever that was felt like we were walking to 489 00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:47,320 Speaker 1: a museum and it was a place was operating, right, 490 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:50,720 Speaker 1: I mean, the giant General Electric turbines written out in 491 00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 1: the old fashioned kind of script across them and everything. 492 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,400 Speaker 1: And yeah, there was a digital control room with guys 493 00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:57,879 Speaker 1: but looking at a bunch of computers. But realistically the 494 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:01,119 Speaker 1: place felt like you were, I mean, had stepped way 495 00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:02,879 Speaker 1: back in time. And actually I would love it if 496 00:25:02,920 --> 00:25:05,560 Speaker 1: this is the it used to be the gen On plant. 497 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,400 Speaker 1: It's it's located right across the river from the capital. Um, 498 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 1: it would be great if they did do something with it. 499 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 1: I actually think they should turn it into a museum 500 00:25:12,800 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 1: because I mean, and I mean this honestly, like coal 501 00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 1: contributed an enormous amount to the US growth in society, 502 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,720 Speaker 1: and we owe an incredible, you know, debt of gratitude 503 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,520 Speaker 1: to the folks who dug coal out of the ground, 504 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: who ran the plants, who did all of these things, 505 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:27,960 Speaker 1: and we should pay homage to those people and everything 506 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:30,879 Speaker 1: that it stands for. It's it's no joke. It's certainly 507 00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: time to move on. But um, but you know, I 508 00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:35,879 Speaker 1: think it's it's something to be practical about it. And 509 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 1: I think as a sort of as as we kind 510 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,440 Speaker 1: of blithely walk by, Okay, Cole has you know, decreased 511 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,080 Speaker 1: from half of power to power or whatever it's going 512 00:25:43,160 --> 00:25:45,159 Speaker 1: to be this year, it's worth remembering that, you know, 513 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 1: West Virginia is really hurting and then top and on 514 00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:50,840 Speaker 1: top of um, you know the demise of coal, they're 515 00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:53,880 Speaker 1: hurting because of opioids. And it's so you know, these 516 00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,760 Speaker 1: are these are real people who who who are affected 517 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,880 Speaker 1: by this. So so there are definitely talk there's plenty 518 00:25:59,880 --> 00:26:03,360 Speaker 1: of talk in Washington workforce efforts to try to retrain 519 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 1: people and stuff. It's hard to see how that works, um, 520 00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,160 Speaker 1: but it's worth remembering that they're actually human beings involved 521 00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:12,360 Speaker 1: in all this. Now, the natural gas industry is booming 522 00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,600 Speaker 1: in the US, and for those who are not part 523 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,119 Speaker 1: of the energy industry, will first of all, congratulations for 524 00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,040 Speaker 1: making it this far into the podcast. But if you're 525 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:24,479 Speaker 1: still here, you know, you will know that natural gas 526 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 1: has not always been a big part of the US 527 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:32,159 Speaker 1: in terms of first of all energy, secondly exports. What 528 00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 1: does the regulatory environment look like for natural gas that 529 00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 1: is making it to have such a heyday or is 530 00:26:37,560 --> 00:26:40,520 Speaker 1: it completely agnostic of that? Well, it's interesting. I mean, 531 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 1: if you would hear the Trump administration talk a little bit, 532 00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: they would say, oh, whether that the Obama administration to 533 00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:49,880 Speaker 1: somehow like constrained the production of gas, which is ridiculous 534 00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:52,560 Speaker 1: because the amount of gas that's being produced under Obama 535 00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,399 Speaker 1: and now under Trump has been just rising spectacularly. The 536 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,000 Speaker 1: US has been the number one producer of natural gas 537 00:26:58,000 --> 00:27:00,679 Speaker 1: for about ten years now and now the number one 538 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:04,160 Speaker 1: producer of oil in the world as well. So to say, yes, 539 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: so to say that the US, to say that the 540 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,440 Speaker 1: US is you know that somehow regulation has been strangling 541 00:27:09,440 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 1: the industry, and and and and on the flip flight 542 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,240 Speaker 1: to say that deregulation will unleash a great deal more 543 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,000 Speaker 1: investment is hard for me to see because there's so 544 00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:22,040 Speaker 1: much activity that's already taken place already and so much 545 00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:24,600 Speaker 1: growth that's gone on. So you know, um, you know 546 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:28,159 Speaker 1: Secretary of Energy Perry, who's who's leaving now. But he 547 00:27:28,560 --> 00:27:31,960 Speaker 1: coined the term molecules of freedom, and um, that's that's 548 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,399 Speaker 1: what he claims that we are exporting to the rest 549 00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:36,840 Speaker 1: of the world. And I think that term is certainly 550 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,399 Speaker 1: it's a little let's just say, a little hyperbolic. But 551 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 1: on the other hand, I mean, I do think if 552 00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: we can be the one who exports um to places 553 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,439 Speaker 1: to offset you know, supplies from Russia, that is a 554 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:49,520 Speaker 1: good thing, right, let's be I mean, at least in 555 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:50,960 Speaker 1: my opinion. I mean, I think we want to be 556 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,080 Speaker 1: a counterbalance to some of the other actors in the 557 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:55,920 Speaker 1: world who are who are providers of gas. So um, 558 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 1: the US has the potentially use its its position and 559 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 1: gas geopolitically. It also has the potential to build more 560 00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:03,560 Speaker 1: of an interest industry in terms of l n G 561 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 1: and exports, and the administration has generally been very supportive 562 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 1: of that. I think both administrations have been the Obama 563 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:11,640 Speaker 1: administration as well, so I think this has been sort 564 00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:16,080 Speaker 1: of consistent between Democrats and Republicans. If you're looking ahead, 565 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,840 Speaker 1: what do you see as having the biggest impact in 566 00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:23,080 Speaker 1: the U S energy sector in the next five years? Um? 567 00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:25,520 Speaker 1: In terms of what will happen over the next five years, 568 00:28:25,800 --> 00:28:28,240 Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard for me to see the general 569 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:32,120 Speaker 1: trends that we've seen changing. I think the I think 570 00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:37,399 Speaker 1: the main new thing is batteries plus renewables UM natural 571 00:28:37,440 --> 00:28:40,280 Speaker 1: gas sort of. I would argue, you know, truly, on 572 00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,400 Speaker 1: the on the costs had been cheaper than renewables in 573 00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:47,800 Speaker 1: a lot of places, but if you factor in and 574 00:28:47,840 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 1: also more effective at meeting demand more on around the 575 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 1: clock basis very importantly. But if you factor in the 576 00:28:53,840 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 1: idea of including a battery UM and how cheap some 577 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:00,600 Speaker 1: of the bids that we've seen around p V storage, 578 00:29:00,760 --> 00:29:03,840 Speaker 1: particularly in the Southwest, why kind of counts a little less. 579 00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 1: But elsewhere, UM, I think that's something that's really worth 580 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 1: keeping an eye on and we've seen pronouncements from folks 581 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:11,960 Speaker 1: like UM, the CEO of next Era, saying that he's 582 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: more committed on, you know, on renewables plus storage, and 583 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:18,920 Speaker 1: so I think, you know, that's an area world starts. 584 00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 1: And we've seen bids in interesting places like Indiana and elsewhere, 585 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 1: which suggests that this is a technology that's going to 586 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,000 Speaker 1: really kind of come along. So I think that's one. 587 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 1: And by the way, on top of that, tying it 588 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:33,120 Speaker 1: back to policy, there is a move UM already. If 589 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 1: you have a battery and you hook it up to 590 00:29:35,320 --> 00:29:38,680 Speaker 1: your renewable energy system, that battery is essentially as long 591 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:42,280 Speaker 1: as it's not bigger than that system, UM can qualify 592 00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:45,240 Speaker 1: for the Investment tax credit, meaning essentially get a thirty 593 00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:49,640 Speaker 1: discount on the total cost of the battery. UM that's 594 00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 1: sort of been kind of informally blessed by the Internal 595 00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,680 Speaker 1: Revenue Service. There is now an effort in Congress to 596 00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:59,680 Speaker 1: make sure that that can sort of become more codified 597 00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:01,800 Speaker 1: lo younger term, and even an effort to make sure 598 00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,160 Speaker 1: that if you just build the battery and don't have 599 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 1: attached to renewable energy system, it can qualify for the 600 00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: tax credit on its own as well, so there's a 601 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:11,960 Speaker 1: lot going on. We haven't even talked about tax credits, 602 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 1: which are boring, I know, but are critically important to 603 00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:16,720 Speaker 1: the industry, and there's an effort, you know to try 604 00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:20,320 Speaker 1: and extend those. That's underwear in Congressman. They always seem 605 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,920 Speaker 1: to be under threat of being cut off. Is that 606 00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 1: where they sit now, Well they got it, they got 607 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 1: an extension in and that was the last time, like 608 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:31,880 Speaker 1: there was a real battle about extension. So so it's 609 00:30:31,920 --> 00:30:34,560 Speaker 1: not been quite yesterday that we've had that. UM. But 610 00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:37,000 Speaker 1: every time that they have cut off, at least on 611 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 1: the wind industry, we've seen just this collapse of activity. Yeah, 612 00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,239 Speaker 1: every time. It happens. Every time it happens, and so 613 00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:46,040 Speaker 1: we are sort of looking at another cliff kind of coming, 614 00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:48,160 Speaker 1: but not quite the same cliff. I don't know. Maybe 615 00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 1: it's a dune, I don't know what you want to 616 00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 1: call it, which is like, you know, we'll see as 617 00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,800 Speaker 1: the tax credits roll off, probably you know, a decline 618 00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:58,880 Speaker 1: and activity, particularly in the wind sector. UM. But the 619 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,680 Speaker 1: reason why it's more of a in then the cliff 620 00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,400 Speaker 1: is because the way Congress wrote it is that the 621 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:06,680 Speaker 1: tax credit essentially phases down it doesn't just like boom 622 00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,560 Speaker 1: pop off, so that that helps him, makes it a 623 00:31:09,600 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 1: little more gradual. That said, the wind industry would really 624 00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,760 Speaker 1: like the tax credit extended, the solar industry would like 625 00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:18,880 Speaker 1: it extended. I think they were not hopeful they had 626 00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:21,320 Speaker 1: any chance of that happening. And then the Democrats won 627 00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: the House of Representatives in two thousand eighteen, and now 628 00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 1: one thinks, okay, well maybe we got a shot. But 629 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,719 Speaker 1: now we have this little impeachment thing going on, and 630 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 1: so whether or not anything happens, frankly on anything else 631 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,440 Speaker 1: in Washington is a real open question. We haven't even 632 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,400 Speaker 1: you know, we're now operating in a new fiscal year 633 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,440 Speaker 1: in in the United States that started October one. We 634 00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:45,200 Speaker 1: don't have a budget for this year. We're still operating 635 00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 1: over last year's budget, and you know, we're looking at 636 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 1: a potential government shut down at the end of November. 637 00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 1: So you know, kind of like literally to keep the 638 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,080 Speaker 1: lights on, stuff needs to get done first before and 639 00:31:56,120 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 1: then of course of the impeachment thing. And then I 640 00:31:58,160 --> 00:31:59,760 Speaker 1: think there's a question of whether or not a tax 641 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:02,600 Speaker 1: it's gonna get addressed sometime before the end of the year. 642 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 1: You know, the usual craziness and ethan. It has been 643 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 1: a long time since I have lived in the US, 644 00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 1: or Washington, d C. For that matter, So thank you 645 00:32:10,640 --> 00:32:13,000 Speaker 1: so much for joining us today and letting us know 646 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 1: what is happening in the US. We look forward to 647 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:17,680 Speaker 1: having you back on the show sometime soon. Thanks Going Nationals. 648 00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberguin e F is a service provided by Bloomberg Finance 649 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,400 Speaker 1: LP and its affiliates. This recording does not constitute, nor 650 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 1: it should it be construed, as investment advice, investment recommendations, 651 00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:30,800 Speaker 1: or a recommendation as to an investment or other strategy. 652 00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,760 Speaker 1: Bloombergun ea F should not be considered as information sufficient 653 00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:36,959 Speaker 1: upon which to base an investment decision. Neither Bloomberg Finance 654 00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:40,280 Speaker 1: LP nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or 655 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:43,200 Speaker 1: warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information 656 00:32:43,320 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 1: contained in this recording, and any liability as a result 657 00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:50,480 Speaker 1: of this recording is expressly disclaimed. Ye haven't even talking 658 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:51,360 Speaker 1: about baseball yet.