Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene
Speaker 1: Jai Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg so
Speaker 1: Trade front and center once again as we count you
Speaker 1: down to a Federal Reserve decision. No news conference, a
Speaker 1: statement which I'm sure that Tom pau Sally will be
Speaker 1: looking at closely. NBC Capital's chief economists joining us here
Speaker 1: in New York. Tom, good morning to you. Good morning gentlemen.
Speaker 1: How is everyone? Everything is great, and we're wondering how
Speaker 1: gradual great hikes for now? How long for now really is?
Speaker 1: For now is at least until the end of next year. Um.
Speaker 1: You know we that this has been our long standing call. Uh.
Speaker 1: And finally I think the market is starting to buy
Speaker 1: into it a bit more. They're still not quite convinced
Speaker 1: on nineteen. But you'll get two more hikes this year,
Speaker 1: and you'll get four hikes next year. Uh. And I look,
Speaker 1: it's not a heroic case. I mean, I think this
Speaker 1: is what people forget. Um, if you have economic activity
Speaker 1: that's accelerating. UM, labor dynamics that continue to suggest that
Speaker 1: the consumer is going to be in very good shape. Uh,
Speaker 1: then I think that will lend itself to the FED
Speaker 1: continuing this process of normalizing rates. So I don't think
Speaker 1: we're going out on a limb. It's great uncertainty shared
Speaker 1: by many about UM. If you took a twelve month
Speaker 1: rolling view of the economy waking up in nineteen looking
Speaker 1: ahead full hikes. Yeah, In fact, what I would say
Speaker 1: is economic activity actually doesn't look very different in nineteen
Speaker 1: than it does right now. And here we are with
Speaker 1: a year where you're going to see four hikes. So interesting. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: So I think that's the sort of the right framework
Speaker 1: to think about it. In UM. You know, look, if
Speaker 1: we were if this was any standard economic expansion and
Speaker 1: we were here in your ten then yeah, you would
Speaker 1: make the case the FED was basically about to sort
Speaker 1: of stop the process. But it's actually I would say
Speaker 1: that the real risk is that you actually see more hikes,
Speaker 1: not fewer hikes from this FED. Well, let's just take
Speaker 1: the forecast from the street. The Magian estimate for growth
Speaker 1: next year is about two and a half percent. It's
Speaker 1: one eight percent. Where's obc on that. Um So for
Speaker 1: this year, we're right around three percent. For next year
Speaker 1: we're also around three percent. Um So, again just sort
Speaker 1: of the idea of continuing the expansion. We actually don't
Speaker 1: forecast beyond sort of the next two years. UM So
Speaker 1: I will not get myself into compliance trouble by saying
Speaker 1: anything about that. But nevertheless, Uh, look, I would tell
Speaker 1: you that if you want like a sort of a
Speaker 1: clue for where you're going to be in if there's
Speaker 1: we don't see any fundamental deterioration on the horizon. This
Speaker 1: is really interesting going into the Federal Reserve decision. A
Speaker 1: lot of people have made a lot out of the
Speaker 1: fact that the Federal Reserve is at odds with this administration.
Speaker 1: That sustainable three percent GDP growth just is not sustainable.
Speaker 1: You're on the side of the administration, then you think
Speaker 1: it is sustainable. Yeah, So let me not say I'm
Speaker 1: taking sides uh particular debate exactly. I don't want to
Speaker 1: be on the side of any administration. But what I
Speaker 1: would simply say is, uh, yeah, look, I think that
Speaker 1: three percent is relatively easy to achieve as long as
Speaker 1: labor market dynamics continue. To improve much as we see
Speaker 1: them improving. But you know what I would say is
Speaker 1: getting north of three percent. Boy, do I think the
Speaker 1: hurdle is very high for that. UM. I don't think
Speaker 1: you're gonna see anything close to four percent on a
Speaker 1: sustained basis. But interestingly, we here we are with a
Speaker 1: four four handle growth number in Q two, and guess
Speaker 1: what's gonna happen in Q three. You're going to see
Speaker 1: another four handle. So I think this allows the administration
Speaker 1: to actually take a victory lap around four percent. We
Speaker 1: don't think four percent is sustainable, UM, And not to
Speaker 1: bore your listeners, but the reality for next quarters four
Speaker 1: percent is it's just an inventory snap back. UM. You
Speaker 1: know you're gonna get It's gonna add one full percentage
Speaker 1: point to growth UM consumption all the while will be
Speaker 1: around two and a half percent. And every business person
Speaker 1: listen to this school and Percelli's not okay. September twenty six,
Speaker 1: November December nineteen. Then we go into next year January thirty,
Speaker 1: March twenty May one, June nine. I'm looking at the
Speaker 1: cost of money a two year yield two point six
Speaker 1: seven percent. If I get a PURSELLI three or four
Speaker 1: rate increases. Where's my two year yield come May one,
Speaker 1: two thousand nineteen. Yeah, so you're looking at a really
Speaker 1: like an incredibly flat yield curve. There's no question about it.
Speaker 1: Part of the problem, particularly if you just think about
Speaker 1: like sort of the term structure more broadly, UM. You know,
Speaker 1: if you think about UM, you know the thing that
Speaker 1: really does the driving from a back end of the
Speaker 1: curve perspective, ten year yields in particular, you know, you
Speaker 1: tend to have some inflationary impulse that really tends to
Speaker 1: push UM back end rates a little higher. The reality
Speaker 1: is we just don't see a lot of inflationary pressure.
Speaker 1: But if are you talking about a three fifty on
Speaker 1: the two year yield? Right? Yeah, exactly, So if you
Speaker 1: what does that do to business? What does that do
Speaker 1: to nominal spirit? So here, let's just make sure we
Speaker 1: sort of hash out this whole thing. So we have
Speaker 1: by the end of next year, we actually have funds
Speaker 1: at three fifty UM and we have tens at three
Speaker 1: seventy five. So you're looking at a completely flat yield
Speaker 1: curve again and business spirit. So what I would say is,
Speaker 1: if we continue to print these job numbers, and we
Speaker 1: continue to print firm wage pressures if M I S
Speaker 1: M is able to continue to hold up, which again,
Speaker 1: let let me be clear, I'm not I don't want
Speaker 1: to make a sound like these are guesses. Um. We
Speaker 1: have every reason to believe that they will. Um, then
Speaker 1: so too will the corporate psyche. I'm just wondering what
Speaker 1: the rest of the bank i'bviously think of this? Cool?
Speaker 1: Where's your credit scene? What are your credit scene thinking?
Speaker 1: If you can just get the front end all the
Speaker 1: way up to three and a half percent, what's min
Speaker 1: incentive to take risk with high yield as taught as
Speaker 1: it is right now? But tell tell me where we
Speaker 1: are in the cycle? Right? Tell me like in noords,
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a single variable equation. You can't
Speaker 1: just simply say, hey, by the way, but um, you
Speaker 1: know yields er this, Well, that's not that simple. Tell
Speaker 1: me what else is happening? Right? If everything else continues
Speaker 1: to move along at a reasonable pays, then everything shifts higher. Um.
Speaker 1: And I think that's the right way of thinking about
Speaker 1: So basically, Tom and just to dig date Princy with
Speaker 1: thinking about this, you think there will be a big
Speaker 1: supply side response in the U. S economy. Then yeah,
Speaker 1: So it's funny if we think about sort of the
Speaker 1: notion of aggregate demand UM. Aggregate demand is obviously always
Speaker 1: a function of what's happening from a labor perspective, right,
Speaker 1: It always comes back to labor um and so if
Speaker 1: you're able to continue to push labor firmer, which which
Speaker 1: let's keep in mind, we are now actually getting to
Speaker 1: the tightest part of the labor cycle right now, um,
Speaker 1: which guess what happens at the tightest part of the
Speaker 1: labor cycle. Wage pressures really accelerate. So then you all
Speaker 1: of a sudden have an additional catalyst for aggregate demand.
Speaker 1: So you think productivity picks up because people are gonna
Speaker 1: have to invest and tell you productivity already is picking up.
Speaker 1: Now again, is it to the point where we want
Speaker 1: to see it? Yeah, I mean, you know, that's a
Speaker 1: debatable point, but the reality is productivity has picked up.
Speaker 1: And I would further add think of it this way.
Speaker 1: Right now we were I would say all the pieces
Speaker 1: are in place to actually have a really nice little
Speaker 1: CAPEX run here. One commercial industrial UM lending standards have eased,
Speaker 1: and that tends to lead outright lending. Um too. If
Speaker 1: you think about where we are from an equipment perspective
Speaker 1: in the United States, the average age of equipment in
Speaker 1: the United States is about ten years old. That's actually
Speaker 1: very old as US by US standards. So that would
Speaker 1: also suggest that at a minimum we could be on
Speaker 1: the verge of a replacement cycle in the United States.
Speaker 1: Companies are flush with cash. How many companies have we
Speaker 1: heard now say, hey, by the way, on the back
Speaker 1: of repatriation, remember how we said we were going to
Speaker 1: use that for stock back backs. Um, yeah, we're actually
Speaker 1: gonna use some of that for capex too. So I
Speaker 1: would say the pieces are in place actually to have
Speaker 1: that scenario playoff. We go on. This has been great,
Speaker 1: congratulations on your wage and hill over the last twenty
Speaker 1: four months has been great thought provoking stuff this morning. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and I don't think anybody's prepared John for a three percent,
Speaker 1: let alone three quarters, three thirty three sixty, never mind
Speaker 1: of the four hand or we saw in the previous quarter.
Speaker 1: In this quarter, that would be something, you know, I
Speaker 1: would say that John, can we agree that that's an
Speaker 1: outlier course, It's not like cool. But Tom picks on
Speaker 1: something quite important. Many people are focused on the export
Speaker 1: numbers fading in the next quarter. What they haven't picked
Speaker 1: up on, and I haven't heard much of, is the
Speaker 1: fact that the inventory number the previous quarter actually canceled
Speaker 1: out the contribution from trade in the last quarter. And Tom,
Speaker 1: I guess that's your point, is that yes, export might
Speaker 1: trade and that it might fade in the next quarter,
Speaker 1: but the invatory build is going to offset it anyway. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you get uh. In fact, it's a one full percentage
Speaker 1: point increase from inventories loan, which is just astounding. And again,
Speaker 1: make no mistake, we don't think a number like that's repeatable,
Speaker 1: which is why, as I said earlier, we don't think
Speaker 1: four percent growth is going to be sustained. You'll shift
Speaker 1: back down closer to you know, roughly three percent, which
Speaker 1: is still above a lot of not the gloom crew,
Speaker 1: but people. It's above the crowd on the rest of
Speaker 1: the street. We can say that with some conviction. You
Speaker 1: can just see it in the estimates. Are you gonna
Speaker 1: be ready, John? Today? For one of my other properties,
Speaker 1: which is the FED decides, I'm gonna watch unlike the
Speaker 1: real yield, I do watch you when the Fed descide.
Speaker 1: I just watch it. It's smart. But you don't watch me.
Speaker 1: You watch Diane Swant, Jeff Rosenberg, Scarlet, Yeah, exactly, and
Speaker 1: you're sort of on the side getting frustrates. I'm way
Speaker 1: on the side. Yeah. You know, Scarlett's got Scott coming in.
Speaker 1: That'll be good. Scott miner coming in. It's very good.
Speaker 1: Scarlet food. As tough as nails. I mean, she's brutal,
Speaker 1: she she's got she elbows me time shut up. Nothing
Speaker 1: is more basic and more foundational than mining and international mining.
Speaker 1: With an important conversation now and the state of mining
Speaker 1: and China. Here is are John Faraoll, Good morning, guy's
Speaker 1: John Sebasti and Jack the See. I've reattends out joining
Speaker 1: us now from London. Ja. It's always great to catch
Speaker 1: up with you, and I have to say, out of
Speaker 1: all the executives that I speak to, you have a
Speaker 1: really unique inside into what is going gone with China.
Speaker 1: When we first met, you run the copper and cold business,
Speaker 1: building up a multi billion dollar trade with the country.
Speaker 1: A lot of people trying to understand what's going on
Speaker 1: there now, jus and I'm just wondering what your insight is. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think well, first of all, let's let's say a
Speaker 1: few words about the results today. As you know, we
Speaker 1: we disclose our first half result. Very strong performance seven
Speaker 1: point two billion dollars of returns the clear today to
Speaker 1: a shoulders including two point two billion dollars of interim
Speaker 1: evident which is the highest in the entire water and
Speaker 1: for a six year history of the company. Now, um
Speaker 1: to your question in terms of outlook, is the outlook
Speaker 1: is pretty positive in ration to China is as far
Speaker 1: as we see it. And remember we have multiple entry
Speaker 1: point in ration to China. We're selling I know, we're
Speaker 1: selling books like we're saying, copper and so on so forth.
Speaker 1: Today it's absolutely clear that they could be is slowing
Speaker 1: down as expected, as forecast. At the same time, is
Speaker 1: you saw a few weeks ago the Chinese government deciding
Speaker 1: to put some similars into the system. So today when
Speaker 1: I look at the other books have in China, as
Speaker 1: I said, either in nine or books a copper and
Speaker 1: so on to force, I do not have any concerns whatsoever.
Speaker 1: So the Chinese situation, as far as we see it
Speaker 1: is pretty good. My personal experience of it is, you know,
Speaker 1: I go there maybe three four times a year. UM.
Speaker 1: Last time I met with Chao, the chairman of SASSAK,
Speaker 1: who controls most of the issues in China, it was
Speaker 1: pretty clear in his discussion that the restructuring of the
Speaker 1: sea industry, the restructuring of the alimnium is here to say,
Speaker 1: which means that China will continue to buy high quality
Speaker 1: product and it's a great piece of news for realt
Speaker 1: into well j S at the moment. Though, just to
Speaker 1: talk about China a little bit further, do you see
Speaker 1: them hitting an inflection point where they do start to
Speaker 1: boost in terms of amount by shifting towards stimulus and
Speaker 1: pulling away from de leveraging. It's not a scenario you
Speaker 1: can see playing out. Yeah, I think I think it
Speaker 1: could happen. It could happen. Absolutely. I think they've been
Speaker 1: able to manage the debt level in a pretty good way. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm one of the most optimist person inneration
Speaker 1: to their ability to manage a debt level, and I've
Speaker 1: been saying it on this program a few times in
Speaker 1: the past. Today, I'm not concerned about the ability to
Speaker 1: manage that at all. Um, the economy is still growing,
Speaker 1: you know, six point seven percent as they manage to
Speaker 1: deliver in the second quarter of this year. If you
Speaker 1: look at it by any kind of other standards or
Speaker 1: the geography, it's a massive number. So today China is
Speaker 1: You're growing, It's not going as fast as they used
Speaker 1: to be. There's still lots of raw material and Riotintol
Speaker 1: is very well placed to benefit from it in many ways,
Speaker 1: though real tints are also in the eye of the
Speaker 1: storm when it comes to the trade story, JS many
Speaker 1: people with points to the fact that the second largest
Speaker 1: aluminum producer outside of China, the biggest exporter of aluminum
Speaker 1: into the United States from Canada. That puts you in
Speaker 1: a little bit of a point attention at the moment, Jazz,
Speaker 1: I don't see that tension in the numbers. Do you
Speaker 1: have the confidence that it will stay that way? Well,
Speaker 1: let's be absolutely here. I mean, let's give you an example.
Speaker 1: It's absolutely here. We are very strong player is in alumnium.
Speaker 1: You know that the bulk of the almnium were produce
Speaker 1: in Canada is sold in the US. We represent around
Speaker 1: one third of all the alumnium or should I said
Speaker 1: aluminum consume in the US. And today there have been
Speaker 1: no issues whatsoever. There have been no matter of impact
Speaker 1: in ratio to the trade and the tariff ands on
Speaker 1: so forth, because the way the pricing works, it means
Speaker 1: that the type today are made by our customer and
Speaker 1: the end user in the US. That's the first aspect.
Speaker 1: The circle aspect is we need to step back. You know,
Speaker 1: the best interests from the end user in the US
Speaker 1: is to have access to a low cost, reliable source
Speaker 1: of alumium. And some people would say access to a
Speaker 1: green source of allmium. And today the alemium smelter that
Speaker 1: we have in Canada are the best now, not even
Speaker 1: in the first quarter of the costcove there in the
Speaker 1: first design. And if you combine death this with two things.
Speaker 1: One is the hydrol base, so it's a sore set
Speaker 1: of water and that's in terms of energy. And the
Speaker 1: second element, if you think about the partnership we signed
Speaker 1: recently with Apple and we've Alcoha to develop in the
Speaker 1: TANNEL technology for aluminium spelter. Pretty soon there will be
Speaker 1: the greenness of the greenness across the industry. Very low cost,
Speaker 1: very reliable source of aluminium, very green. I believe that
Speaker 1: is in the best interests of the end user in
Speaker 1: the US. To have access to this metal. So today,
Speaker 1: to answer your question, ineration to trade between the US
Speaker 1: and Canada for aluminium, no issues whatsoever suggest today it
Speaker 1: doesn't matter what I throwout. You seem to be very
Speaker 1: optimistic and confident. Let's talk about the elephant in the room.
Speaker 1: When I woke up this morning and came into the
Speaker 1: office and switched on the Plumberg terminal in saw London traded,
Speaker 1: the stock was down hard. The stock is still down
Speaker 1: by almost four percent. What is your rdom What's going
Speaker 1: on with the stock this morning? Yeah, I mean, let's
Speaker 1: be clear. I mean, first of all, is the entire
Speaker 1: your mining business or mining industry was down in this
Speaker 1: morning when I okay it as well. That's one aspect.
Speaker 1: The second aspect is, you know, let's step back. You know,
Speaker 1: I'm not driving this company on the back of the
Speaker 1: share place of a few hours of trading in London
Speaker 1: or wherever in New York. Will see when he opens.
Speaker 1: You know, this is a company which we have been
Speaker 1: there for world for six years. We just deliverse seven
Speaker 1: point two billion dollars of returned to the shoulders, including
Speaker 1: the highest dividend in the entire history of the company.
Speaker 1: We have a sound business. What is very important, and
Speaker 1: back to your previous question, there is uncertainty in the marketplace.
Speaker 1: So what we need to do is to have a
Speaker 1: very resident business case on the back of bound sheets,
Speaker 1: on the back of the quality of our portfolio, on
Speaker 1: the back of the quality of a performance, in order
Speaker 1: to make sure that we deliver on our commitment to
Speaker 1: a shoulder, which is to deliver super returned in the
Speaker 1: shop medium and long term. And what we've deliversed this
Speaker 1: morning seven point two billion dollars a return. If you
Speaker 1: think about what we didiver last year on the foll year,
Speaker 1: which was just below ten billion dollars, those are big money,
Speaker 1: big ticket items. Were just deliving on our commitments. So
Speaker 1: let's see what the share parace does does in the
Speaker 1: coming weeks and months. I've got sevens late left jas
Speaker 1: and I've got two questions for you. The increasing costs
Speaker 1: cost inflation is looking like a little bit of a
Speaker 1: problem on the margin. Didn't say it in the Anglo numbers.
Speaker 1: Why do I say it in Rio? Well, I think
Speaker 1: what you've see in real is two things. First of
Speaker 1: all is we did acknowledge that inflation was coming back fast,
Speaker 1: and we acknowledge it as early as NOBIL December, whereas
Speaker 1: maybe some of our computers have not done it. But
Speaker 1: the simple aspect is we've taken actions early on. That's
Speaker 1: what we call our MiNet to market policulary program. And
Speaker 1: all in all, what you see to there is the
Speaker 1: ability to maintain or EBD margins. And you saw forte
Speaker 1: BD margin which compares to fourty four percent on the
Speaker 1: full year business last year nine point two billion dollars
Speaker 1: of EBD seven point two billion dollars of return to
Speaker 1: the shoulders today. Final question, Jess, and I'm going to
Speaker 1: leave the most antagonizing question until last, because then you
Speaker 1: get to leave and I don't have to deal with it.
Speaker 1: You've just promised seven billion dollars to invest us. You've
Speaker 1: basically said this more to come. The stocks still down,
Speaker 1: there's no real sign of growth coming from this company.
Speaker 1: The critics would say, this mining company, which should be
Speaker 1: very cyclical, it's just become a utility. It's become boring.
Speaker 1: Why is that a good thing? Jacks hold on. We
Speaker 1: have to be clear. Our commitment to sholders is verst important.
Speaker 1: We have committed to the very super return in the
Speaker 1: shop medium and long term. That the first point, and
Speaker 1: we had to re establish our track record. Like the
Speaker 1: rest of the industry, last ten fifteen years of the
Speaker 1: industry have not been very good. Last couple of years
Speaker 1: for us have been very good. We did a ten
Speaker 1: billion or last year and with Diverse a seven point
Speaker 1: two the first six months of this year. Now at
Speaker 1: the same time is we are very clear that growth
Speaker 1: has to be an element of all strategy because if
Speaker 1: you don't grow in the mining business, you disappear because
Speaker 1: of depletion. We have some attractive growth options. We were
Speaker 1: one of the if you maybe the only one investing
Speaker 1: at the bottom of cycle. Think about the investment we
Speaker 1: did in in the are in all last year. Think
Speaker 1: about the investment we are currently doing in book Site
Speaker 1: in in Queensland. Think about the investment we're doing in
Speaker 1: Copper and goal in Mortgola at this point in time.
Speaker 1: So we have some growth option in our portfolio. Um
Speaker 1: what is very important for is is to focus on
Speaker 1: on growth which is of high quality. And my view
Speaker 1: is the old mantra value of a volume. It's better
Speaker 1: to deliver a few projects but do them very well
Speaker 1: on time, on budgets. In the safe manner than trying
Speaker 1: to pursue too many things at the same time and
Speaker 1: an average performance. All mantra is about value of a volume.
Speaker 1: All mantri is about creating value. Four shoulders on. Mantra
Speaker 1: is not about being big for the sake of it.
Speaker 1: It's also Bastin Jack the CEO. Every since j has
Speaker 1: always grit a catch up with you guys. Back to
Speaker 1: John Ferrell, thank you so much, greatly appreciate that this
Speaker 1: morning in conversation on mining on China and on real
Speaker 1: attentive for INSTED. I believe we're going to Tesla right now. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we are going to Tesla, and Tesla planning to invest
Speaker 1: in five billion dollars in a possible Chinese actory. This
Speaker 1: is a nice Bloomberg scoop. It's according to a person
Speaker 1: familiar with the situation. And this of course comes at
Speaker 1: probably an inopportune time because the trade war in the US,
Speaker 1: which makes establishing production in China more imperative for the
Speaker 1: electric car pioneer. So I'm not sure whether it's actually
Speaker 1: a supplying tape problem or whether building a factory in
Speaker 1: China gives it the edge because then it can export
Speaker 1: to the region. If trade concerns were to escalate joining
Speaker 1: US now is Bloomberg's Asia and Needs Desk editor mL
Speaker 1: Brian in Beijing, who can kind of, you know, cut
Speaker 1: through the noise to to make sense of all of
Speaker 1: this emma? Is this a good move or it is
Speaker 1: a bad move. It's not to supply parts, right, Is
Speaker 1: it to actually build cars in China that then they
Speaker 1: can export regionally? Yeah, that's right. So it is to
Speaker 1: build an entire cars Modelisque Dance in China. It has
Speaker 1: sort of been speculated about and in train since before
Speaker 1: the trade war really hated up, but Elon Musk didn't
Speaker 1: really seal the deal to build is factory in Shanghai
Speaker 1: until a week after that first round of tariffs from
Speaker 1: the Trump administration on thirty four billion dollars worth of
Speaker 1: Chinese imports came into force. So it did look as
Speaker 1: though Tesla was acting on that because the cost of
Speaker 1: exporting its cars to China increased when China retaliated against
Speaker 1: that Trump move. So it does look as though they
Speaker 1: are trying to really secure that local manufacturing base and
Speaker 1: what is their second largest market in the world. Um
Speaker 1: and I talked to me a little bit about you know,
Speaker 1: financing or do you do you think or are we
Speaker 1: in our reporting do we think that they're going to
Speaker 1: Chinese money to help finance this or is it money
Speaker 1: from abroad? Well, that's how understanding that they will try
Speaker 1: and finance at least part of this within China, which
Speaker 1: is quite intriguing. It's a big amount of money. As
Speaker 1: you've said, five billion dollars. Tea has under four billion
Speaker 1: dollars in free cash at the moment, so I guess
Speaker 1: they'll try and do this via loans. Elon Musk has
Speaker 1: said that he doesn't want to issue any new shares
Speaker 1: or bonds, so I guess they might look to loans
Speaker 1: to do this. But it is quite interesting that they
Speaker 1: will try and tap the local market here to build
Speaker 1: this factory. I think I think you just hit you
Speaker 1: hit the heart of the matter, which is they really
Speaker 1: don't want to dilude an issue new bonds and new equity.
Speaker 1: How does this fold into state owned enterprises if they
Speaker 1: do loans, is Mr Musk looking for some form of
Speaker 1: you know, traditional foreign j V or is he looking
Speaker 1: for some linkage that literally makes it a state owned enterprise.
Speaker 1: Our understanding is that he really wants to go it
Speaker 1: alone here in China. It's been a he don't want
Speaker 1: you just told me he doesn't want to do bonds
Speaker 1: and stocks. You sound like Elon Musk and I can't
Speaker 1: It's gone. He can't have it both ways. Which way
Speaker 1: does he want it? Well, in terms of I guess
Speaker 1: ownership stake in the factory is what I mean. He
Speaker 1: wants to sort of out own it outright. But yes,
Speaker 1: if you are going to raise the money here in China,
Speaker 1: then it does open the prospect of state owned enterprises,
Speaker 1: state owned banks, state owned other entities being involved. That
Speaker 1: is a factor. Yeah, very smart. I'm gonna thank you
Speaker 1: so much, m O'Brien with a reality there that somehow
Speaker 1: I don't think we're going to hear in the TESLA
Speaker 1: conference call today. Now, let's talk banks and this trade
Speaker 1: standoff between the US and China maybe heating up again.
Speaker 1: Bloomberg understands that the Trump administration will propose more than
Speaker 1: doubling its plants terrorists on two billion dollars of Chinese import.
Speaker 1: Now this comes and it reports that the offices of
Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary Steve Nuchin and the Chinese Vice primarily Hey,
Speaker 1: are privately discussing ways to re engage in negotiations. So
Speaker 1: how is the trade tensions actually affecting markets and investments
Speaker 1: or joining us now from an exclusive interview is Andre.
Speaker 1: He's the president of the Investment Bank at UBS and
Speaker 1: of course, in the second quarter the investment Bank, also
Speaker 1: led by Rachel, delivered a stellar performance, led by surging
Speaker 1: equities and effects trading. So welcome to surveillance Andrea, and
Speaker 1: of course congratulations on your last quarters. Overall. How do
Speaker 1: you see the markets, um, you know, improving from now on?
Speaker 1: Or we can see more volatility? Is equally to be
Speaker 1: good volatility? Or is this is this kind of central
Speaker 1: bank normalization still utopia? Well, obviously we have a strong
Speaker 1: underlying economic growth and that will continue with the US
Speaker 1: continuing to boom. Emerging markets are still quite resilience, and
Speaker 1: I'm holding Europe and the UK a little bit less good.
Speaker 1: But I think the market dynamics are quite different. We
Speaker 1: have seen a lot of volatility and a lot of
Speaker 1: influence from UH political events or politically driven events. You
Speaker 1: talked about trade wars, you you can talk about Brexit,
Speaker 1: you can talk about a lot of other things like
Speaker 1: that that will continue to move the markets. We think
Speaker 1: the markets are actually quite complacent, quite leveraged. We don't
Speaker 1: see a lot of buying activities, so if we have
Speaker 1: some reaction, it can hurt. But we are overly positive
Speaker 1: for the second half of this year and we're prepared
Speaker 1: for it. Would you worry most about the second half
Speaker 1: of the year, So it's not a kind of sudden
Speaker 1: correction of the market. Well, I think we could have
Speaker 1: some some whip effect from from some of these events.
Speaker 1: I mean, when we talk about trade wars, everybody is concerned,
Speaker 1: but at UBS we we have actually prepared a set
Speaker 1: of scenarios and we do think it could take anywhere
Speaker 1: between fifty business points and point out of global growth
Speaker 1: in the worst case scenario. I don't think that that
Speaker 1: is fully priced in where could be positive or negative.
Speaker 1: But if you go into a Q three, which is
Speaker 1: notably less liquid because people are on holidays and everything else,
Speaker 1: and you have some of those comments, the reaction we've
Speaker 1: relatively limited buying activities supporting it could be quite significant.
Speaker 1: That does not mean it doesn't bounce back later, but
Speaker 1: it does mean we could have some bad surprises. What
Speaker 1: do you think markets are complacent? Is it because actually
Speaker 1: there's a lot of passive investment, and so it's very
Speaker 1: difficult to price in. Or is it that traders are
Speaker 1: young or that, or that we've just never seen anything
Speaker 1: like this before. I do think there are There are
Speaker 1: a number of factors. One, we have a wall of
Speaker 1: cash that has been absorbing any correction within a certain
Speaker 1: period of time. That continues. If you look, privat actually
Speaker 1: have over a trillion to invest and they're driving M
Speaker 1: and avis here. That's cash. We Secondly, people have leverage
Speaker 1: because people who haven't have actually on the performed and
Speaker 1: that continues um and the underlying economic is solid um,
Speaker 1: it's booming. So all of that is positive. However, all
Speaker 1: of that is already pristine into stock prices. It's already pristine,
Speaker 1: and people have have not been able to make any
Speaker 1: money from being negative. They have made money from continuing
Speaker 1: to be positive. That's what concerns us. We've seen it
Speaker 1: in a number of cases where we have reactions on
Speaker 1: a specific stock or on a specific situation, people bleed
Speaker 1: because there is no absorbing shock. Having said that, as
Speaker 1: I said, we're going to see more volatility. Were expecting
Speaker 1: two three sample back, but we expect to finish the
Speaker 1: year up. Okay, but you're not predicting any way, shape
Speaker 1: or form or recession, right, a recession that would be
Speaker 1: the end of the cycle, coupled with the central bank
Speaker 1: mistake or anything like that at this point in time. Absolutely, Now,
Speaker 1: what do your clients ask of you? Well, I think
Speaker 1: it's the difference between an economy and a background that
Speaker 1: is very valiant and mark kits which are a lot
Speaker 1: more volatile, And how do you navigate that? And specifically
Speaker 1: in Europe and in the UK, um events that are
Speaker 1: keeping this geographic care of this block behind the US
Speaker 1: and the emerging market blocks. So what's I mean if
Speaker 1: you look at M and A and deal flow in Europe,
Speaker 1: how's how's that going? Actually, that's going quite well. People
Speaker 1: think they can extract synergies, reposition of their portfolio, improve
Speaker 1: their prospects, become more efficient by merging and taking out
Speaker 1: cost or refocusing the way video business. So that has
Speaker 1: been quite good. And actually we're said to have a
Speaker 1: record year this year and European particularly is driving that
Speaker 1: that trend um. So I do think the fundamentals are
Speaker 1: quite good. It's just that day after day the market
Speaker 1: environment is quite volatile and and and and filled with
Speaker 1: uncertainties that we don't know how to price. How do
Speaker 1: you price trade wars? How do you price Brexit? How
Speaker 1: do you price protect anysome? How do you price um
Speaker 1: events in Italy over the budget? You try to price them,
Speaker 1: but actually it's very difficult to forecast and to adapt
Speaker 1: to it. And I thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: That is Andre, the president of UVS Investment Bank, the
Speaker 1: tweet of the day two days ago. You think of
Speaker 1: the president, you think of you know, different celebrities and
Speaker 1: the like thirty six on the front nine today my
Speaker 1: best nine holes ever. Back nine not so great, too excited.
Speaker 1: We welcome Douglas cast with hands of steel. What was
Speaker 1: it like, Doug on the twelfth hole? After you did
Speaker 1: a thirty six on the front nine, I didn't care anymore,
Speaker 1: To be honest with you, you didn't do it. It
Speaker 1: was in the tournament as well. Yeah, you didn't do it,
Speaker 1: Tom Watson, like you did uh in Brittany. He focused
Speaker 1: just by the way. This thirty six on the front
Speaker 1: nine occurred at the South Florida Science Center and Aquarium
Speaker 1: Mini golf Course and wes pob Beach, Florida. I prefer
Speaker 1: talking about golf of the Yankees who were seven games
Speaker 1: behind in the win column and three downs column. We
Speaker 1: call that doing the mets se Doug cast of Sea Breeze,
Speaker 1: Uh partners, Yeah, Doug. I want you to remind our
Speaker 1: listeners who was a Screenberg? And why should you? Why
Speaker 1: should everybody remember how to sell a big position. A
Speaker 1: Screenberg was the legendary and iconic chairman of the board
Speaker 1: of bear Stearns um he Um, he left the board.
Speaker 1: He left his championship well before, I might add the
Speaker 1: problems rose in two thousand seven and two eight and
Speaker 1: his idea and he had many many um. I wrote
Speaker 1: a piece on Real Money and a load of my
Speaker 1: Real Money posse Um in which I which I talked
Speaker 1: about some of his legendary quotes, and one of those
Speaker 1: quotes that was about selling and when you have to
Speaker 1: sell something, you go on the floor and you say,
Speaker 1: I have this to sell. What could you do? Why
Speaker 1: is that important? Now? It's it's dangerous. Well, it was
Speaker 1: important then when you had people manning the specialist boots.
Speaker 1: It's less important today. In fact, you could create a
Speaker 1: flash crash in a market dominated by a passive funds
Speaker 1: including exchange trade of funds and of course, the machines
Speaker 1: and algories which control the quantitative strategy. Doug, I've never
Speaker 1: asked this question before. I did not ask of Mr Greenberg.
Speaker 1: I thought be to impolite. Let me ask it of
Speaker 1: view with your heritage on the street. Would Bear Sterns
Speaker 1: have gone under if Mr Greenberg had been younger, more vital,
Speaker 1: and more in charge of the company, more engaged. No way, Jose,
Speaker 1: Why not now? Um? He would have been you know,
Speaker 1: read that piece about his his missive about controlling costs
Speaker 1: and making sure about the quality, the quality of what's
Speaker 1: on their asset, the asset side of bear Sterns balance sheet. Um.
Speaker 1: He was a stickler for details. Yes, and it appears
Speaker 1: that the management that followed him were not so. Yeah, Doug,
Speaker 1: let me switch gears. Here. Do your important tweet that
Speaker 1: you did on Elon Musk, Mr? Is it iron Horn?
Speaker 1: Him helped me of green Light. Okay, we're talking folksed
Speaker 1: Doug cast and a lot of people go after Casts.
Speaker 1: And I'm going to protect him here because when you're
Speaker 1: Warren Buffett and you want one mouthy guy on the
Speaker 1: street with enough smarts and experience to go to Omaha
Speaker 1: to actually ask intelligent questions you asked Doug Cass That's
Speaker 1: what Mr Buffett did with all its philanthropy over the years.
Speaker 1: Would you go to a TESLA annual meeting to ask
Speaker 1: Mr Musk questions? UM? I think Warren Buffett is the
Speaker 1: most sane, um value added intelligent investor in modern history.
Speaker 1: UM And I think, by contrast, Elon Musk is off
Speaker 1: the reservation. So UM, I you know I spent seven
Speaker 1: hours asking Warren questions and the annual meeting at two
Speaker 1: thousand fourteen and m and Omah of Berkshire hathaway. I
Speaker 1: was respectful and courteous. I did months of research with
Speaker 1: my analysts about the sort of questions I wanted to
Speaker 1: ask them, the structure of those questions, UM and Chap.
Speaker 1: Both Charlie and Warren gave wonderful responses and and responded
Speaker 1: directly to my questions. UM and I suspect that if
Speaker 1: I did the same at a TESLA annual meeting, I
Speaker 1: would not get quite the same response. I don't think
Speaker 1: you might recall his his his conference call following the
Speaker 1: last earnings in which he dismissed analyst and was extremely
Speaker 1: rude and court. You would never see that from Charlie Warren,
Speaker 1: I think you wouldn't be allowed to eat the peanuts
Speaker 1: at the annual meeting. Correct. And in the case of Berkshire,
Speaker 1: hath the way the the cherry coke and the peanut
Speaker 1: brittle our investors being compensated for taking risk in the
Speaker 1: market right now? Now, I think tops are processes and
Speaker 1: we may very well be in that process. Now, Um,
Speaker 1: why do you believe that well? In the search of value?
Speaker 1: Uh and comparing it to the risk taken? At its
Speaker 1: core is the marriage of a contrarian streak, which I
Speaker 1: think I have and a calculator. Um. There's an adage
Speaker 1: wolf Street adage that says tops are bottom of tops
Speaker 1: of pro bottoms are events at least most of the time.
Speaker 1: And if you look at an ice cream cones profile,
Speaker 1: the top is generally rounded and the bottom is V shaped.
Speaker 1: This is how tops and bottoms often look in the market. UM.
Speaker 1: I think that it's important to gauge the possibility that
Speaker 1: the market may be making an important topic. It's even
Speaker 1: more important PIM to distill, based upon fundamental inputs, what
Speaker 1: the markets reward versus risk is. And there are growing
Speaker 1: fundamental and technical list of signposts that suggests the market
Speaker 1: is in the process of making a top and that
Speaker 1: the risks store for the rewards. Have you sold long positions?
Speaker 1: I've sold everyone. Last Monday I sold I did something
Speaker 1: so extreme I've never done before. I sold everyone of
Speaker 1: my equity long positions. I do have some trading lungs
Speaker 1: which I put on in the interiment of a like
Speaker 1: CBS um but but um uh. I am materially out
Speaker 1: of the market in the net short position. Now, well,
Speaker 1: we're gonna come back with Doug cast. It's really nice
Speaker 1: that you can continue with us in this half hour
Speaker 1: because I know he's booked at the South Florida Science
Speaker 1: Center and Aquarium, West Palm Beach, Florida Mini Golf Course.
Speaker 1: Have you ever been there, Doug. You've been there, right
Speaker 1: to the center, not the mini golf course, not to
Speaker 1: the mini golf course. Very good. We're gonna come back
Speaker 1: with for those for those of you part slices just
Speaker 1: past the windmill. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane.
Speaker 1: Before the podcast, you can always catch us worldwide. I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio