Speaker 1: What's up, friends that welcome into Leading Off. It's the
Speaker 1: Welsh and the Joe Alrico. We're in the house today.
Speaker 1: We're living in a post trade world. We've got the
Speaker 1: guys that are out there. We're actually seeing all these
Speaker 1: weird Dylan Carlson in a raised uniform looks super weird.
Speaker 1: Jack Flare guys are weird in their new uniforms. But
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about them. We got a whole
Speaker 1: bunch of it. We got some bets, and we got
Speaker 1: a guy who's not a new uniform, but we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about at the top that has been rocking it.
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Speaker 1: they don't when I'm here hanging with the Joe Rico. Joe,
Speaker 1: what's that buddy?
Speaker 2: Always great to be on with you. Man.
Speaker 3: This is our little Thursday routine which is gonna get
Speaker 3: broken up again soon. But it's been nice talking to
Speaker 3: you over these last couple of weeks. It's always great
Speaker 3: when we get to do a show together.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, we're gonna get to be doing more, everybody.
Speaker 1: It's August. You know what that means. It's August time. Well,
Speaker 1: we're gonna get We're gonna be trading in a Joe
Speaker 1: for a Joe. We've got a little bit above action.
Speaker 1: But let's kick it right in and one of Joe's
Speaker 1: favorite things. If he was here, you know exactly what
Speaker 1: he would be hitting. Yes, right there, talking about Jackson Holiday,
Speaker 1: Jackson Holiday yesterday, a Rico, we're talking about it, we're
Speaker 1: breaking Hey gets called up. Piece of pa is asking
Speaker 1: you know, what do you think? Do you think he's
Speaker 1: gonna be a dude? And I do feel good. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna hold to my laurels. I'm gonna, as I said, like,
Speaker 1: I think he's a contact hitter. I think he's gonna
Speaker 1: kind of find his rhythm back up there, and sure
Speaker 1: enough hits a grand slam, hits his first career homer,
Speaker 1: Grand slam style almost hits another homer by the way
Speaker 1: over on the pull side having a ridiculous debut. So
Speaker 1: this is attached to another very important situation. Jordan Westburg
Speaker 1: fractured his hand, huge blow, having a really great season
Speaker 1: two seventy eighteen homers fifty eight RBIs this does one
Speaker 1: of two things solidifies Jackson Holiday for the rest of
Speaker 1: the year, like mah and or brings up Kobe Mayo.
Speaker 1: It could be Kobe Mayo time. If they're gonna lose
Speaker 1: Jordan Westburg, they got some stuff that they're gonna kind
Speaker 1: of finagle with. But let's start with the Jackson Holiday side.
Speaker 1: Jackson Holiday comes out big off of that horrific, horrific
Speaker 1: pro debut. Are you trusting Jackson Holiday rest of season
Speaker 1: after seeing it's only one game? But are you gonna
Speaker 1: trust Jackson Holiday as like a must own and must
Speaker 1: start player.
Speaker 3: It's amazing how one game can really change everything. I
Speaker 3: got like thirty Jackson Holiday questions yesterday. If you went
Speaker 3: over four, nobody would have cared. And we shouldn't really
Speaker 3: get too swayed one way or the other. But I've
Speaker 3: become a pretty strong believer that guys need to struggle
Speaker 3: a bit when they first come up. Maybe not initially,
Speaker 3: but they will have to go through some bumps and bruises.
Speaker 3: He did that with that fifty percent strikeout. Right now,
Speaker 3: I think, you know, the wheels are up and he's
Speaker 3: going to be a really solid asset rest of season.
Speaker 3: Kind of in the same way that Wyatt Langford struggled,
Speaker 3: and he's picked things up over the last couple of months.
Speaker 3: I know he hasn't been like setting the world on
Speaker 3: fire recently, but he's picked things up. Holiday's kind of
Speaker 3: the same way I would trust him. If you're seeing
Speaker 3: him out there on any waiver wires, I'd be picking
Speaker 3: him up. He's sixty four percent rostered on Yahoo. There's
Speaker 3: still room for you guys to still get him on
Speaker 3: your roster's dual eligibility.
Speaker 2: There's a lot to like here.
Speaker 1: I uh, when I'm looking at the depth chart here,
Speaker 1: like they still have west Bergen. They're gonna have to
Speaker 1: make the move for it. And what may end up
Speaker 1: happening is you've got ramon Urius. You know, they've got
Speaker 1: a couple pieces that are floating out there that they
Speaker 1: may throw in there. Jackson Holiday currently slated as their
Speaker 1: second baseman. They could move him over to third, but
Speaker 1: it really does feel like this is a Kobe Mayo situation,
Speaker 1: and Kobe Mayo comes up, he is an absolute must
Speaker 1: pick up. So let me ask you this. Let's just
Speaker 1: say he does come up, and let's say Jackson Holiday
Speaker 1: does hold down this second base job. They're both out there,
Speaker 1: who do you prioritize Jackson Holiday or Kobe Mayo.
Speaker 3: I'd go Holiday because, like I said, he's already had
Speaker 3: that initial struggle, and I also don't really trust the
Speaker 3: way the Oriols are going to use their prospects the
Speaker 3: way that they've showed us over the last year plus.
Speaker 3: Holiday is I think a little bit of a different story,
Speaker 3: being like the number one overall prospect. But Kowser Westburg, here'stad.
Speaker 3: They come up, they sit on the bench half the time,
Speaker 3: So I kind of need to see how they're going
Speaker 3: to use him before I'd really want to take that stab. Specifically,
Speaker 3: in shallow leagues, like in fifteen teamers, you kind of
Speaker 3: need to just take the chance on them and hope
Speaker 3: for the best. But in shallow leagues, they just haven't
Speaker 3: really given us a lot of reason to trust these
Speaker 3: young guys coming up playing twice a week. They haven't
Speaker 3: really been that valuable, so I'm a little more pessimistic
Speaker 3: for the initial call up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I've said a lot like the path is
Speaker 1: not linear, you know, with a lot of these prospects,
Speaker 1: like there is time. I'm not sure. I'm like, I
Speaker 1: welcome big struggles, but I also don't think struggles are
Speaker 1: the be all end all with with prospects, because it's
Speaker 1: like you want to see how they bounce back and
Speaker 1: learn from it, especially guys like really really good contact
Speaker 1: based players. That's why I have a really good trust
Speaker 1: in Jackson Holiday. Yes, the same thing may happen with Mayo.
Speaker 1: There's some strikeout stuff out there. Big power probably wouldn't
Speaker 1: hit at the top of the lineup no matter what.
Speaker 1: I kind of do think this might be a Jackson
Speaker 1: Holiday play for the rest of the season. But if
Speaker 1: Mayo comes up, you should pick him up. I want
Speaker 1: to point something out to Eddie. Eddie, are you new here?
Speaker 1: Eddie's picking on my hair because it's flowing high. Of
Speaker 1: course it's flowing high. If I get to flow it high,
Speaker 1: she's banging.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: I will tell you I have been attempting a little
Speaker 1: bit more to bring it down and swoop it over.
Speaker 1: But today was a big old poof day. So Eddie,
Speaker 1: you're new here with your lols laughing at it. You're
Speaker 1: not going to affect me there, buddy, because this hair
Speaker 1: with all the bald heads. No, we're going to take
Speaker 1: the big flow. Don't you shame me, Eddie. So Jordan
Speaker 1: Westburg out, Jackson Holiday going Logan more news stuff. Logan
Speaker 1: Web was dominant, complete game, shutout, six strikeouts and a
Speaker 1: one zero victory over the Age. Yesterday he allowed just
Speaker 1: one walk. On the inverse of it, Framber Valdez was okay.
Speaker 1: I thought, I really thought this was going to be
Speaker 1: like one of the starts of the day. Surrendered six hits,
Speaker 1: four and runs in six innings. And Wednesday as the
Speaker 1: Pirates as the Astros beat the Pirates, but barely, just
Speaker 1: barely in the right at the end of the game.
Speaker 1: I had Astros on a money line bet that I
Speaker 1: thought was just done. But Framber gave up a couple,
Speaker 1: just bad meat balls. He's just been so inconsistent rest
Speaker 1: of season. Framber Valdez, your Logan Web easily Logan Web
Speaker 1: for me.
Speaker 3: Valdez, like, like you said, the inconsistency is the lack
Speaker 3: of strikeouts. Like, I know he's not been a massive,
Speaker 3: massive strikeo guy, but he's down at just league average
Speaker 3: twenty two percent this year. I think it's pretty easily
Speaker 3: Logan Web for me.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it is Logan Web as well. I'm
Speaker 1: pretty down on Framberveldez, like I just haven't just the inconsistencies.
Speaker 1: It just I'm not about that. I mean, Logan Web's
Speaker 1: has his stuff as well. Clayton Kershaw, speaking of inconsistencies,
Speaker 1: gave up six hits, seven runs, three earned over three
Speaker 1: and two thirds on Wednesday, losing to the Padres. Padres
Speaker 1: are going to be a problem. Any lack of trust
Speaker 1: in Clayton Kershaw moving forward after that start.
Speaker 3: I do want to give him a little bit of
Speaker 3: time coming off his shoulder surgery. At the same time,
Speaker 3: two whiffs is not really what I want to see
Speaker 3: at all. But I saw people yesterday like Dodgers fan
Speaker 3: saying up, it's over. He's nothing, but you know, just
Speaker 3: a relic of the past and he's here to sell
Speaker 3: tickets or something. I think he's still quite a bit
Speaker 3: better than that. He was very good in his first
Speaker 3: start back. It's Clayton Kershaw, and I think we have
Speaker 3: to use different measuring points for these generational type of players.
Speaker 3: Even though the velocity's down, he's not the same guy.
Speaker 3: He hasn't really been that same guy for the last
Speaker 3: couple of seasons, and he's still been great. So I
Speaker 3: think he's earned the benefit of the doubt here. If
Speaker 3: people are cutting him today, I'd pretty happily go pick
Speaker 3: him up.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, like in like a ten team league,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I think he's he's a best a streamer.
Speaker 1: In a twelve team league, you're probably holding on. I'm
Speaker 1: probably giving him a little bit more leeway than some
Speaker 1: other guys. So like maybe I'm paying attention to who
Speaker 1: he's starting, and I might put him on the bench
Speaker 1: if it's you know, a team like the Padres or
Speaker 1: something like that. But the team context is important. I
Speaker 1: don't think. I don't think this is the must drop
Speaker 1: kind of like you're alluding to what some people are saying,
Speaker 1: like it just it's dependent. It's dependent what's available out there.
Speaker 1: You know, if you're dealing with just kind of garbage streamers,
Speaker 1: I'm not super interested in it. You're gonna have these
Speaker 1: kind of ebbs and flows but you know what we
Speaker 1: do have to pay attention to as well, is as
Speaker 1: these Dodger pitchers get healthy quote air quotes here. If
Speaker 1: they actually get healthy and then that rotation becomes something
Speaker 1: where there's actually depth, then there could be stuff that
Speaker 1: end up happening with Kershaw. But it's a it's a
Speaker 1: bad blip. We'll pay attention to it. Matt Shaw, I
Speaker 1: want to ur Matt Olsen saw Matt Shaw, prospect person Cubs.
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about Matt Olsen pair of solo homers yesterday
Speaker 1: on Wednesday as the Braves beat the Brewers. I want
Speaker 1: to talk about Olsen here for a second. He's up
Speaker 1: to seventeen homers to twenty six average. It's been relatively
Speaker 1: abysmal season, as everybody knows, especially anybody that made those
Speaker 1: like early on bets. I'm curious where you are on shot.
Speaker 1: Everything is down kind of across the board. His expected
Speaker 1: batting average is a little bit better than it currently is,
Speaker 1: but it's not that much better. Hard hit numbers are down,
Speaker 1: strikeouts or way up. But he seems to be kind
Speaker 1: of getting back into that groove from a home run perspective.
Speaker 1: I think that's four homers in the last like five
Speaker 1: or six games. Are you a buye that Matt Olsen
Speaker 1: is going to have a complete comeback on the back
Speaker 1: half of these two months?
Speaker 3: He's bad in a buck seventy two in July. I
Speaker 3: don't think I'm really a strong buyer unless you're really
Speaker 3: getting a huge discount, and there's a chance that you are.
Speaker 3: At this point seventeen homers, two twenty six batting average,
Speaker 3: I think people were expecting probably double the amount of
Speaker 3: home runs with like a two to seventy average at
Speaker 3: this point. So maybe you can get him for essentially nothing,
Speaker 3: But if somebody wants eighty ninety cents on the dollar,
Speaker 3: I don't think he's earned it, especially because the team
Speaker 3: is just not good around him either. It's not like
Speaker 3: Olsen has just been the guy struggling. There's obviously Noah Kunya,
Speaker 3: there's been no Albis now. You know, it's kind of
Speaker 3: just been the Marcelo Zuna show offensively there and it's
Speaker 3: not enough to sustain everybody in that lineup, and Olsen
Speaker 3: has struggled, like last year, one hundred and twenty seven runs,
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty nine Ribbies. He's not going to
Speaker 3: crack a hundred of either probably looking at fewer than
Speaker 3: thirty home runs. I don't see a lot here to
Speaker 3: really buy in. I think we kind of maybe we're
Speaker 3: a little bit mistaken in buying in off of the
Speaker 3: career year last year. I think I think it was
Speaker 3: a mistake obviously hindsight's twenty twenty. But I'm pretty down
Speaker 3: on Olsen at this point.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he might actually be a decent buy
Speaker 1: if no one is really bought in, But I'm not
Speaker 1: buying him at like, hey, Olsen is going to return
Speaker 1: to last year's run and the homers are completely changing.
Speaker 1: I think there's still like some weird lineup protection stuff.
Speaker 1: He's still just struggling in Jenner twenty percent, strikeout rates
Speaker 1: really bad, his barrels are really really bad so far
Speaker 1: this year, and he's not hitting fastballs. He hit three
Speaker 1: sixteen against fastballs last year thirty right now, So I
Speaker 1: think this is like a this is like a eighty
Speaker 1: cents on the dollar type of thing. And I'm talking
Speaker 1: probably about like not original cost of Olsen and eighty
Speaker 1: percent down, but like take it a couple notches down
Speaker 1: and then by eighty cents on that. If someone's trying
Speaker 1: to get stolen bases. If they're chasing some stolen bases
Speaker 1: or whatnot, I would look in that territory. We had
Speaker 1: some new debuts Jack Flaherty. He's gonna make his first
Speaker 1: start with the team on Saturday and wearing zero, number zero. Grown.
Speaker 1: I'm older, things don't bother me as much, while some
Speaker 1: things bother me still more than ever, Joe, There's always
Speaker 1: been something about numbers with me. I've gotten over I
Speaker 1: actually back in the day when Taywan Walker got traded
Speaker 1: to the Diamondbacks and he wore number ninety nine, I
Speaker 1: was tweeting at him, and he was tweeting back with
Speaker 1: me about like, why are you wearing ninety nine? I
Speaker 1: kind of got over that. I'm not over zero. I
Speaker 1: don't like zero. And the word was, flerty is going
Speaker 1: to wear number zero, which that also is not a number?
Speaker 1: Is that an Is that? I mean, it doesn't. I
Speaker 1: don't know. It's just not a baseball number. And on
Speaker 1: top of anything, but also number zero is kind of
Speaker 1: redundant a little bit in my brain. But does anything
Speaker 1: like that bother you? Or is that just me? Does
Speaker 1: the number thing bother you? See guy wear like sixty
Speaker 1: four a baseball player, and you're like, don't do that.
Speaker 3: I saw the zero thing and I thought it was
Speaker 3: a little bit strange. I just don't feel like there's
Speaker 3: a great connotation with the number zero. Like I think
Speaker 3: of Russell Westbrook in his later years. I think of like,
Speaker 3: I mean, Gilbert Arenas, all right, good, good early career,
Speaker 3: But like, I don't have great memories with the numbers zero,
Speaker 3: And I just think it's like, why are you why
Speaker 3: do you want to be zero?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: Whatever they want to do. Sure it doesn't bother me
Speaker 3: so so much. I'm not gonna be buying the jersey.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you that for free. But I don't think it's.
Speaker 2: A big deal.
Speaker 3: What I really don't like is that my Alcy Young
Speaker 3: future on Flarty is now dead.
Speaker 2: That's what I really don't like.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, bye bye bye bye. Definitely that yeah, and
Speaker 1: no all, I mean, are you kidding me? Okay? You
Speaker 1: know what? This is so funny if con case, if
Speaker 1: you think I think that, I was on Sleeper on
Speaker 1: the bus yesterday with Paul Sport and Justin Mason and
Speaker 1: I went off on the same thing. I went off
Speaker 1: on that exact subject. Also really stupid. So like maybe
Speaker 1: I have some like boomery type of like ooh whatever,
Speaker 1: the number thing, but like the facial hair thing is
Speaker 1: the dumbest thing of all time. I mean, I think
Speaker 1: it's hilarious seeing Jazz succeed like he is right now too,
Speaker 1: And like Yankees fans are lark should he be wearing
Speaker 1: a color belt or whatever? Like, no, it's a stupid Yankees.
Speaker 1: The Yanks are so stupid with that thing. And I
Speaker 1: just get worked up about number zero. So I'm back.
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna go back to disliking Jack Flaherty and
Speaker 1: not believing anything now that he's number zero. So that's
Speaker 1: how I treat fantasy sometimes. Also, Martine Perez is making
Speaker 1: his padre's debut on Saturday against the Rockies. You say
Speaker 1: Kokuchi is gonna make his first start with the Astros
Speaker 1: on Friday against the Rays, So are you gonna buy in?
Speaker 1: There's there's a lot of negative stuff about Kokuchi. Are
Speaker 1: you a Kakuchi and Houston guy or nay?
Speaker 3: I have been really a big fan of Kakuchi. I
Speaker 3: know that the numbers on the surface are really bad.
Speaker 3: I think he's been a little bit unlucky from a
Speaker 3: few different perspectives, Like he's still got a twenty percent
Speaker 3: strikeout minus walk right, there's like fifteen guys in all
Speaker 3: of baseball who meet that threshold. He's got like a
Speaker 3: low three Sierra exit. Those numbers are really good. I
Speaker 3: do worry about the home run problem with that short
Speaker 3: Crawford box and left field, that could be something that
Speaker 3: is a bit of a problem. But he's got a
Speaker 3: much better offense behind him now. I think that it's
Speaker 3: generally a positive move for Kakuchi. Still, the Blue Jays
Speaker 3: were awful. Kacuchi had like four wins or something this season.
Speaker 3: That should be something you can project to get better,
Speaker 3: and I think overall we're going to see him start
Speaker 3: to regress a little bit more. One other thing is
Speaker 3: the turf in Toronto, the high babbabs for a lot
Speaker 3: of Toronto pitchers. You're not going to see that same
Speaker 3: exact numbers like three forty three fifty in Toronto. You've
Speaker 3: seen it with Gosman the last couple of years. That
Speaker 3: turf leads to some kind of unpredictable things. I don't
Speaker 3: think we'll see it to the same degree in Houston.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, he's he's it in general is like
Speaker 1: a positive. That was actually the kind of crazy thing
Speaker 1: about the trades too. The you just want to check
Speaker 1: that out. It was Bogman myself. It'spor and Justin Mason
Speaker 1: breaking down all the trades and trying not to be
Speaker 1: like a prisoner of the moment, but like it felt
Speaker 1: like every trade, every other trade, or like eight out
Speaker 1: of ten trades, like there were net positives in this
Speaker 1: trade deadline of players moving on, and it's like, oh,
Speaker 1: this destination is good, like even where you know, like
Speaker 1: like maybe Elane Thomas like a lane, the right handed
Speaker 1: ballpark factors in Cleveland they're not like the left. It's
Speaker 1: almost opposite. It's like it's like really bad for right handers,
Speaker 1: really good for left handers. Right now the ballpark factor's gone.
Speaker 1: So you could maybe even like theory look and like
Speaker 1: oh that's maybe a negative, and maybe Cleveland has him
Speaker 1: run a little bit less. But then he's hitting two.
Speaker 1: You know, he's gonna hit two on that team, and
Speaker 1: it's like Fetti goes to the Cardinals, Kokuchi goes to
Speaker 1: the Astros. Every single player there were just net positives
Speaker 1: almost across the board. There was a couple players that
Speaker 1: weren't really great, but they're just really good positives on
Speaker 1: them moving and what that's going to do with the
Speaker 1: negative with really some of the like main negatives being
Speaker 1: like like estock parades with his games specifically being with
Speaker 1: the Cubs and the poll side that wasn't good, or
Speaker 1: theoretical platoons like Tommy Tommy fam might just nix all
Speaker 1: of that and it might not matter at all, but
Speaker 1: he's probably going in there to be probably more of
Speaker 1: that right side platoon, but he might get some more
Speaker 1: at bats. A lot of those, like veterany outfielders that
Speaker 1: get traded, end up getting put kind of in a
Speaker 1: platoon situation. But just so many net positives, Joe, there
Speaker 1: are so many good ones. Did you have a favorite?
Speaker 1: Did you have a favorite positive trade like that you
Speaker 1: thought impacted the value the most.
Speaker 3: Flairty's definitely up there, Jazz is definitely up there as well.
Speaker 3: Like going to such a better hitting environment. The Marlins
Speaker 3: offense has just been disgustingly bad. Now he gets to
Speaker 3: hit probably I think they've had him batting fifth but
Speaker 3: right around Judge and Soto, much better RBI opportun tunity.
Speaker 3: He's also going to get third base. Eligibility, and on
Speaker 3: some platforms he might have Jazz next year second third
Speaker 3: outfield potentially, Like maybe second will be a little bit tricky.
Speaker 2: I think it depends on where you're playing.
Speaker 3: But that is just a huge boost for his current
Speaker 3: day and future value. But Jack Flaherty is another guy
Speaker 3: who's been so brilliant this year.
Speaker 2: Like I've been a huge fan of his. Wins have
Speaker 2: been hard.
Speaker 3: To come by in Detroit, you know, in Los Angeles
Speaker 3: they've been a little bit hard to come by as well.
Speaker 3: If you look at Tyler Glass now, just the other night,
Speaker 3: seven strong innings, the bullpen blew the.
Speaker 2: Leaf for him in the back end of the Dodgers pen.
Speaker 3: Might make that a little bit trickier now to secure wins,
Speaker 3: But big positive for Flarity, big positive for Jazz. Those
Speaker 3: are probably the two biggest ones for me.
Speaker 1: So interesting too that the two teams in that division
Speaker 1: that weren't the Dodgers prioritize themselves off of getting relief pitching,
Speaker 1: while the Dodgers that wasn't really their game plan. Obviously
Speaker 1: getting the guy like Flarity and utility offensive and defensive players,
Speaker 1: but nothing on the bullpen side where the Diamondbacks go
Speaker 1: and get Puck and Floro and then obviously the Padres
Speaker 1: Trade an entire organization to get two relief pitchers, so
Speaker 1: pretty crazy. Hey, we'll do something a little bit different.
Speaker 1: We haven't done a little bit. Let's answer some questions
Speaker 1: from the Peanuts and Crackerjacks. Sometimes we try to get
Speaker 1: to you guys, but I've been marking down some of
Speaker 1: your questions. So we'll do a little bit of rapid
Speaker 1: fire seeing what you guys have got for us today.
Speaker 1: Are m I'm guess Garcia drop Glaber Torres for Jackson Holliday. Yeah,
Speaker 1: your name, I.
Speaker 3: Would do that. Yeah, Glaber's been brutal. I know he's
Speaker 3: been a bit better recently, but I don't trust him.
Speaker 3: I don't trust the way that the Yankees I don't know.
Speaker 3: I don't trust his messaging either, like he's been very
Speaker 3: negative publicly. I don't I think the Yankees are getting
Speaker 3: to the point where they're kind of done with him,
Speaker 3: whether he starts losing playing time, and on top of that,
Speaker 3: he's just been pretty bad as well. So I'll take holiday.
Speaker 3: I'll take the upside there pretty much every day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, same seas. I'm kind of done with Glaber, right now,
Speaker 1: I don't think the story of Glaber is done. I
Speaker 1: don't think that, like you know Joe's catchphrase here, I
Speaker 1: don't think we're done with Glaber long term. I just
Speaker 1: don't think he's gonna be a Yankee this sear. I
Speaker 1: think like next year he's going to get traded off.
Speaker 1: And we've seen brilliance from him before. We just got
Speaker 1: to get back to that CASEY said, just got offered
Speaker 1: Gilbert from my Yamamoto in a dynasty league. Except I
Speaker 1: will tell you I think Joe would instantly accept this.
Speaker 1: I'm a little bit indifferent. I lean Yamamoto in dynasty,
Speaker 1: so I would rather him. But I will say, if
Speaker 1: you are in a heavy, heavy competitive side to this
Speaker 1: and you need those innings, you need those starts right now,
Speaker 1: they're close enough that maybe you could justify it. But
Speaker 1: I would say I would rather Yamamoto, like in a vacuum.
Speaker 2: What say you?
Speaker 3: I think it's really close, so you're definitely more of
Speaker 3: the dynasty guy between us. I think it's probably really close.
Speaker 3: Gilbert has great skills, the great ballpark. I think it's
Speaker 3: probably a coin flip, which I know doesn't really help much.
Speaker 3: I would probably lean towards Yamamoto, but I think it's
Speaker 3: essentially even.
Speaker 1: Okay, Lisa, this was at the beginning of the chat
Speaker 1: when people are getting in, So can we have an
Speaker 1: a dull conversation, how Mark Binto should be a top
Speaker 1: ten third baseman going into next season? We could sixteen
Speaker 1: homers to eighty six batting average, a beautiful, beautiful red
Speaker 1: levant page of expected from wOBA to slugging to batting average,
Speaker 1: forty five percent hard hit rate, an elite seventeen percent
Speaker 1: barrel rate, which he has maintained and grown through the year,
Speaker 1: which I think is so key, especially if you're a
Speaker 1: good hard hit guy, and then you can barrel the
Speaker 1: ball those are That is just the beginning mixture of
Speaker 1: something amazing, and then you can start sprinkling in the
Speaker 1: other pieces of hitter, the hitter soup that's going to
Speaker 1: be made. And for him, it's just a lot of
Speaker 1: the great stuff. It's like a double digit degree launch angle,
Speaker 1: which is really solid, great max EV numbers as well,
Speaker 1: and wildly, this is one of the weirdest things is
Speaker 1: right now. I guess it's just flipped. He's been This
Speaker 1: is still weird. He is seeing way more breaking balls
Speaker 1: we don't usually see rookies. Our young players have a
Speaker 1: mix where they're seeing more breaking balls than fastballs early on.
Speaker 1: It's usually like a if you're using the savant designations
Speaker 1: of like breaking fastball off speed, you'll see like a
Speaker 1: fifty six fifty four to fifty six percent fastball, then
Speaker 1: breaking and then off speed. He is seeing more breaking,
Speaker 1: So there's a book out on him, and he's hitting
Speaker 1: sub two hundred against, but he's absolutely murdering everything else.
Speaker 1: So I think there's a great recipe in there for
Speaker 1: a huge dynasty buy and he might be. I'd have
Speaker 1: to look at my ranks. I was just playing around
Speaker 1: with him, but they're arrested this season. I actually think
Speaker 1: he does. He's gonna vie for the top twelve starting
Speaker 1: third basement. If he finishes out this year, how he
Speaker 1: has it probably will be unanimous top ten third baseman.
Speaker 1: What do you think?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't really buy that he's going to be
Speaker 3: a two eighty six hitter. I think he's probably more
Speaker 3: in like the two fifty two to sixty range, but
Speaker 3: he's probably got thirty home run bat in that lineup,
Speaker 3: assuming you know, we still have Pete Alonzo next year.
Speaker 2: And I mean there's no massive changes.
Speaker 3: He could be a close to one hundred RBI guy
Speaker 3: and he's still like, forget about next year.
Speaker 2: This season, he's only on sixty percent of rosters.
Speaker 3: People haven't really bought in so much first base, third base, eligibia, unware,
Speaker 3: espa who.
Speaker 2: Which I mean.
Speaker 3: I know it's not perfect, but I still see, like,
Speaker 3: if I look every day, part of my own podcast
Speaker 3: is looking at like the top ads and drops. Jackson
Speaker 3: Holiday was added eleven thou times today, so it's not
Speaker 3: like people are just not playing anymore. Yeah, I don't
Speaker 3: understand why a guy like Viento's doing what he's doing.
Speaker 3: Dual eligibility on a hot team is still out there
Speaker 3: in almost half of league's I.
Speaker 1: Got a great question, I'm so excited. People can see
Speaker 1: it on my face if he say, like, whenever I
Speaker 1: get like a really good question I'm excited about, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna start smiling, And all I want to do is
Speaker 1: ask the question rest of season, Mark Viento's or Matt Olsen.
Speaker 2: Can you imagine asking that in March and getting left
Speaker 2: out of the room.
Speaker 1: Can you imagine this like the vitriol that you would
Speaker 1: get across the board, Mark Vientos or Matt Olsen. Also,
Speaker 1: I want to see the chat. I want to see
Speaker 1: you guys talk about Matt Olsen or Mark Vento's rest
Speaker 1: of season.
Speaker 3: I think i'd still have to go Olsen, but man,
Speaker 3: it's really close. I'd have to think. I have to
Speaker 3: really think about it. Like I could see the argument
Speaker 3: for Viento's if you're in need a third base. Third
Speaker 3: base has been pretty bad and Viento's has been better.
Speaker 3: So it's not like it would be crazy to take him.
Speaker 3: We've only got seven eight weeks left. There's not a
Speaker 3: lot of time for Olsen to turn it around, so
Speaker 3: I don't think it would be crazy to say Viento's.
Speaker 3: But I would still have to default to Olsen here.
Speaker 3: He had fifty four, he was the number two overall
Speaker 3: player last season.
Speaker 2: That's not in the outcomes for Viento's.
Speaker 3: Olsen could go as the number one player next month,
Speaker 3: and while it would be surprising he's done it before,
Speaker 3: Vento's still hasn't reached those heights just yet.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and everybody like JP Olsen, there's all the Olsen's
Speaker 1: in there, but I feel like it's close. I mean,
Speaker 1: I would also take Olsen by the way, but like
Speaker 1: I think that's the level and that's the plane that
Speaker 1: Venta's is getting into. So that's fun. Yeah, and then
Speaker 1: we'll do quick burns on these last two d What
Speaker 1: to do with Sean Sean Murphy twelve team head to
Speaker 1: head points.
Speaker 3: One hold or if it's a two catcher league, then
Speaker 3: I'd hold on. If it's a one catcher league, then
Speaker 3: you can you can churn and burn there. There's probably
Speaker 3: a better option, or at least the serviceable option there
Speaker 3: that you can stream in week to week. It's been
Speaker 3: a bad year for him, but two catcher leagues, you
Speaker 3: don't really have a choice but to hold on.
Speaker 1: LEAs me is see while the out of the job.
Speaker 1: I'll tell you this, Tory Lavello has been such a
Speaker 1: staunch pain in the ass about this the entire year.
Speaker 1: Every time someone asks him, he dismisses it. Everybody in
Speaker 1: the locker room wants Seawald, Everyone wants this and that,
Speaker 1: and it's like do they does everybody still want him
Speaker 1: one hundred percent? When he's blowing games left and right.
Speaker 1: I don't think he will be out, So you're safe
Speaker 1: if you still hold him. But I do think that
Speaker 1: they may explore some other options inside. They had Ryan
Speaker 1: Ryan Thompson come in for one of those. I think
Speaker 1: Ginkle is one of those guys. I feel like this
Speaker 1: question is directed at AJ Puck. No, I do not
Speaker 1: think AJ Puck is going to get saves early on.
Speaker 1: I think they will go with Ginkle or Ryan Thompson,
Speaker 1: and I do think there's a chance that they move
Speaker 1: between those guys. I think now it's the time where
Speaker 1: maybe he stops holding on. But he is so pro
Speaker 1: Paul Paul Seawald. Would you wouldn't believe it? It's really
Speaker 1: incredible and he stinks right now, three up and three down.
Speaker 1: We got da da da da da da da. Oh No,
Speaker 1: I missed the just for fun of rookie lookies. I
Speaker 1: don't want to just get past this good stuff. Brenton
Speaker 1: Doyle in the Just for Fun one for four solo
Speaker 1: Homer And by the way, remember when he got pulled
Speaker 1: on the trade deadline and everyone was like, oh my god,
Speaker 1: is it going to get traded. He's been ridiculous so far.
Speaker 1: Eleven Homers with a three thirty three slash in July,
Speaker 1: one of the most unheralded seasons so far. And like
Speaker 1: Eric said, this is interesting Robert or Doyle long term,
Speaker 1: I am going to say Robert, but it is a
Speaker 1: way close. Like I think I have been the most
Speaker 1: disrespectful to Brenton Doyle this year of any single player.
Speaker 1: I just have not given him his due, like I
Speaker 1: think we all have that. Sometimes we have a guy
Speaker 1: I don't know, Jeff, you can think of the guy
Speaker 1: that you just didn't give him his proper due all
Speaker 1: season long. I pretty confident mind was Brenton Doyle.
Speaker 2: Rono Blanco. For me, I've just been calling on his
Speaker 2: downfall the whole year.
Speaker 3: Now he's kind of struggling a little bit, but like
Speaker 3: every week I was writing him as a cell, cell cell,
Speaker 3: and every week it was seven innings, two hits, six strikeouts,
Speaker 3: and I was like Jesus every time out, Now to
Speaker 3: crumble a little bit. But yeah, I got the mansions
Speaker 3: were flooded whenever I'd mentioned Renal Blanco because I missed
Speaker 3: badly on that one. No no problem admitting I missed badly.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that happens. We all have those in the
Speaker 1: rookie Lookie Jackson Scherio two for five with a runs
Speaker 1: scored on Wednesday as a Brewers loss, but he has
Speaker 1: been good. Drew Thorpe, he got throttled six runs over
Speaker 1: five innings and losing to the Royals. I just didn't
Speaker 1: see him getting wax like that. And Max Meyer is
Speaker 1: going to be starting today against the Braves. So Max
Speaker 1: Meyer back in business. Be good to see him. Maybe
Speaker 1: not the best matchup though on the three up and
Speaker 1: three down the actual three up and three down now.
Speaker 1: Pablo Lopez on the three up, two runs, seven strikeouts
Speaker 1: over six innings as they beat the Mets. Been a
Speaker 1: good bye in the second half, not like solely, but
Speaker 1: he's been pretty good. Freddie Perulta bounced back, struck out seven,
Speaker 1: allowed two runs over six in the no decision against
Speaker 1: the Braves, and Zach Gallon allowed one run and six
Speaker 1: strikeouts over six innings as the Diamondbacks continue their winning
Speaker 1: ways and beat the Nationals. On the down, Chris Sanchez
Speaker 1: lit up six runs over five and two thirds and
Speaker 1: a lost to the Yankees. Nicolodolo dude eight runs, eleven hits.
Speaker 1: The Nickolodolo thing has not worked out? Is that like
Speaker 1: as fun as it's been this year, Nicolodolo is a
Speaker 1: bit of a problem and is I think he's at
Speaker 1: best streamable right now, where he seemed like a lock
Speaker 1: to keep going. I'm just I'm I mean, this is
Speaker 1: a tough matchup and everything like that, but I don't
Speaker 1: think I'm trustworthy on Nickolodola rest a season.
Speaker 4: Are you.
Speaker 3: I think the talent's a lot better than what we've
Speaker 3: seen recently, but it's just so hard to trust Cincinnati
Speaker 3: pitchers in shallow for mats that ballpark, and no, to
Speaker 3: his credit, the home run problem is not really such
Speaker 3: a home run problem. But I think i'd agree if
Speaker 3: you're in a really shallow league, he's probably more streamable.
Speaker 3: But he's the type of guy I know as soon
Speaker 3: as I drop him, we're gonna fire off three gems
Speaker 3: in a row because the skills are still there.
Speaker 2: But it's been it's been pretty rough.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love I mean, I love his sweeper and
Speaker 1: like someone just said, like get him in a new place,
Speaker 1: love to see him get moved. I just don't think
Speaker 1: the Reds want to, By the way, at least that
Speaker 1: almost needed a puppet. I think I clicked on something
Speaker 1: and my computer was like wanh wa wah, So Joe,
Speaker 1: just letting you know. In the future, you may need
Speaker 1: to get like a Welsh ready, you know, and just
Speaker 1: have like poofy hair and just be like, hey, frindoze
Speaker 1: like however, you just make fun of me, Like, just
Speaker 1: get ready to make fun of me. On the injury front,
Speaker 1: Garrett Cole reported no issues throwing on Wednesday. Likely to
Speaker 1: start against the Blue Jays this weekend, getting a little
Speaker 1: spell there. Mookie Bett's been clear to start some batting practice.
Speaker 1: We'd like to get him in games immediately. Walker Buehler
Speaker 1: make another rehab assignment in TRIPAA on Thursday, so that
Speaker 1: could line up to him starting early next week, which
Speaker 1: would just really be good for everybody. Luis and Grifo
Speaker 1: was removed from Wednesday nights game against the Rockies in
Speaker 1: the eighth inning due to a wrist injury, and I
Speaker 1: think it already might be like il stent. Joe Musgrove
Speaker 1: is scheduled to make his first rehab Minor League start
Speaker 1: on Sunday, so maybe mid ish August, late ish August
Speaker 1: will end up seeing him. That would be great for
Speaker 1: the Padres. Starling Marte is going to be starting up
Speaker 1: a rehab assignment next week. X rays on Brandon Neimo's
Speaker 1: foot came back negative and Justin Verlander faced live hitters
Speaker 1: at Mini Made Park on Tuesday, hopefully getting him back
Speaker 1: here in the very near future as well. Friends, that
Speaker 1: is going to take us. Joe, do you want to
Speaker 1: do this with me? You want to do this part
Speaker 1: with me?
Speaker 2: Of course?
Speaker 1: All right, so you're gonna play the me role. So friends,
Speaker 1: it's all of your favorite.
Speaker 4: Yes, it is the Thursday Best Bets of the Day,
Speaker 4: that's right, brought to you by bet three six five
Speaker 4: with joey Oh, Joe Arico and the Welsh best Bets
Speaker 4: brought to you by Bet three six y five. Use
Speaker 4: that promo code of course, leading off five bucks for one.
Speaker 1: Fifty do it today. If I can speak, the betty
Speaker 1: market horrible yesterday I actually went and I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: placing a little bit one of my top bets here
Speaker 1: is a betting pros prop cheat sheet play that I
Speaker 1: really like. So I'm going to lean on that a
Speaker 1: little bit right now. But Joe, what do you got
Speaker 1: for the day for the best bets of the day.
Speaker 3: I've got three bets, of course, and we're going to
Speaker 3: target Trevor Rodgers in his debut. I don't think Rodgers
Speaker 3: is very good. I don't think I'm in the minority
Speaker 3: on that opinion. He's been pretty awful, and you're getting
Speaker 3: over two and a half runs at plus money. I
Speaker 3: don't see Trevor Rodgers coming out of this one allowing
Speaker 3: fewer than to earned runs against a very good offense
Speaker 3: in Cleveland. So is this one was a pretty easy one.
Speaker 3: I'm kind of surprised there was plus money, Like the
Speaker 3: books respecting Rogers in any way, was a little bit
Speaker 3: of surprise. So that one for me is the first
Speaker 3: one cater Montero for the Tigers. I'm taking under three
Speaker 3: and a half strikeouts. He's facing a Kansas City team
Speaker 3: that doesn't strike out eighteen percent. Strikeout rate is the
Speaker 3: second best in all of baseball. He's been really struggling
Speaker 3: as of late. I don't know that we're gonna see
Speaker 3: him even get the five innings, but the strikeout rate,
Speaker 3: even if he does, it's gonna be pretty tricky for
Speaker 3: him to get the four k's against Kansas City. So
Speaker 3: you're also getting that one at plus one fifteen. And
Speaker 3: then we're targeting a total over a Los Angeles and Colorado.
Speaker 3: You know Feldner and Fulmer here, I just don't see
Speaker 3: them keeping this game under nine runs total. We're talking
Speaker 3: about really, especially Ryan Fell, especially both of them. Really
Speaker 3: they're both pretty bad. I know Fulmer on the surface
Speaker 3: as a three seventy seven era, but it's really bad
Speaker 3: if you start to dig and you look at the
Speaker 3: underlying numbers for him. So between these two guys, I
Speaker 3: don't see them and the respective pens keeping this total
Speaker 3: under nine, all of them at plus money that one's
Speaker 3: plus one hundred and all of them at bet three
Speaker 3: six five.
Speaker 1: Interesting one about Cainder Montero that is actually one of
Speaker 1: the top cheat sheet over prop K numbers for the day,
Speaker 1: so to be very interesting to see. This is a
Speaker 1: you versus the prop projection cheat sheet for the strikeouts
Speaker 1: and how the Montero one works out. I couldn't go
Speaker 1: either side of it. I like where you're going with it,
Speaker 1: and I think it makes sense to me. This feels
Speaker 1: like a two strikeout or a six strikeout game. It's
Speaker 1: going to go one way or the other. I am
Speaker 1: like I said, I went over to the prop cheat sheet,
Speaker 1: which you can do. Go over to bettingpros dot com,
Speaker 1: download the app and you can check out and they've
Speaker 1: got all their top plays. It is great because you
Speaker 1: can filter it and organize it in different ways by
Speaker 1: top probability, top EV and you can just go to
Speaker 1: different markets because usually it'll throw out, you know, maybe
Speaker 1: like here's a run prop and blah blah blah. I
Speaker 1: like to go in sort by total base and strikeouts.
Speaker 1: Those are really the two markets that I kind of
Speaker 1: hyper focus on. So the total base one Anthony Santander
Speaker 1: that is a plus money play. He has hit eight
Speaker 1: of fifteen games, so essentially a fifty over fifty percent
Speaker 1: marker where he has gone over the total bases. So
Speaker 1: I am taking Anthony Santante total bases over one and
Speaker 1: a half today. That is plus money. And I'm going
Speaker 1: to jump in on a couple nerfees and we're gonna
Speaker 1: ride them. One of them is a higher a higher
Speaker 1: juice number Chicago and Saint Louis. That is Sunny Gray,
Speaker 1: Ima Naga. It is definitely more juiced up. But we're
Speaker 1: going to play at the two good starting pitchers. And
Speaker 1: then you've got Atlanta and Miami on the no run
Speaker 1: first inning. Max Meyer in there, I think kind of
Speaker 1: helps this situation. On top of Charlie Morton, that one
Speaker 1: minus one thirty so two nerfe's and a total base prop.
Speaker 1: You guys want to check out more, you can go
Speaker 1: to bettingpros dot com. You can check out all the
Speaker 1: other plays that they've got for you and friendos. Those
Speaker 1: are the best bets of the day for Thursday. Look
Speaker 1: at that bad transition there, all right, home runs, Let's
Speaker 1: check out the home run board because I do have
Speaker 1: a new updated home run board. Ladies and gentlemen, you
Speaker 1: have a chance to do the funniest thing of all time.
Speaker 1: You have a chance because Joe will be here tomorrow,
Speaker 1: Joe piece of Pia to knock Joe off the board
Speaker 1: his last day on the show for the season, which
Speaker 1: single handedly will be the funniest thing that can happen.
Speaker 1: He is just hanging on the tippy bottom of the board.
Speaker 1: We need some people to jump up. It's a small
Speaker 1: slate today, though Walkee does have twenty nine still on
Speaker 1: the board at seventeen. Elscal's got the lead at thirty seven,
Speaker 1: a two home run lead over Beatrotz and Silent Dragon
Speaker 1: at thirty five. Larry Larry's at four with thirty four.
Speaker 1: People doing great. Everybody but me is doing really great,
Speaker 1: So Joe Rico, Whe're you gonna go with your home
Speaker 1: run call today?
Speaker 3: I'm going with Jorge Celaire and his home debut quote
Speaker 3: unquote debut at Truest Park against Max Meyer, who has
Speaker 3: struggled with allow on some home runs throughout his career. Really,
Speaker 3: I mean it's like a one two homer per nine,
Speaker 3: which isn't crazy, but Solaire really has been better as
Speaker 3: of late. That power is undeniable, and I think that
Speaker 3: he's the guy that I'm gonna go with. I wouldn't
Speaker 3: mind going with any member of the Braves really the
Speaker 3: top of that order Ozuna as well, but I'm gonna
Speaker 3: go with Hojorge Soilaire here making a splash in his
Speaker 3: return to Atlanta.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I like the leading off thing too. I
Speaker 1: like him him not you know, no pun intended. Like
Speaker 1: I said, the name like the leading off of for
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Braves. I'm gonna go with Anthony Santander. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna tag with my total base prop. I'm gonna tag
Speaker 1: him for a homer, maybe get a couple and get
Speaker 1: back up on the board. Hey, I did want to
Speaker 1: mention something. Eddie Buzz asks a really good question. Well,
Speaker 1: Shore you prospecting today. We've moved off of a lot
Speaker 1: of our like scheduled, like we did with the trades
Speaker 1: and the waivers and stuff like that. I will tell
Speaker 1: you I do want to have a little bit of
Speaker 1: regimen coming into August. We're getting into the playoffs as
Speaker 1: far as maybe like pick ups and stream or something
Speaker 1: we are gonna hit. Not doing prospecting today, but I
Speaker 1: do think I will tackle it tomorrow. I don't know
Speaker 1: if we'll do it every Thursday. Hey, if the people speak,
Speaker 1: you know, we got to listen, of course, but I
Speaker 1: want to let things settle a tiny bit. Next Thursday
Speaker 1: we will come back. I will do a prospecting with
Speaker 1: the Welsh. Well it might be a different day. We'll
Speaker 1: talk about that tomorrow, but we will do another prospecting
Speaker 1: segment once we've got a little bit of idea of like,
Speaker 1: all right, you know, we've movet where we're into August,
Speaker 1: we know what's happening with these teams and not doing
Speaker 1: a funky thing for a day or two, Cameronaro, stuff
Speaker 1: like that. So we'll get back and we'll do some
Speaker 1: prospecting next week, my friends, so we can get you
Speaker 1: locked in. Joe Rico you're always amazing. You can find
Speaker 1: him on Twitter at Joe Urrico ninety nine. Go and
Speaker 1: check out all his great work. You can find me
Speaker 1: at is It the Welsh and friends. You can catch
Speaker 1: me and Piez a Pea on his season ender tomorrow.
Speaker 1: Not done forever, just the season and we might even
Speaker 1: get him back a little bit, so make sure you
Speaker 1: guys are tuned in for that. For Joe Rico, I'm Welsh.
Speaker 1: Thank you guys as always, have a great day and
Speaker 1: we will talk to you to end out the week
Speaker 1: aust right here on leading off peace. Friends, thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast.
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