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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: It's on target.

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Speaker 1: It is good, Wyo. That's when you have fun when

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Speaker 1: you're kicking somebody's ass and they're sucking for when that

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Speaker 1: was good? Ready go bounder on the base off pop Yeah,

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Speaker 1: way outside.

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Speaker 3: Possible time.

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Speaker 1: By the Wily event.

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Speaker 3: Here it is we whoa whoa.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 4: This is your final four player props episode, and I'm

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Speaker 4: joined today by Sean Kerner and Nick Giffon the engine

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Speaker 4: of the Action Networks predictive analytics team on my Calabary's

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Speaker 4: We're here to break down who we like in the

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Speaker 4: prop market for both of the national semifinals. We have

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Speaker 4: Yukon against Alabama and NC State Cinderella taking on Purdue.

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Speaker 4: So we'll start there. Doctor Nick, this is your NC

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Speaker 4: State team. Do you have a play in that semi final?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I do, and this is going to support my

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Speaker 1: NC State wolf Pack. I went to grad school there,

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Speaker 1: so I am going to go with NC State DJ

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Speaker 1: horn to go over fifteen and a half points. You

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Speaker 1: can get that at minus one twenty. And look, obviously

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Speaker 1: this matchup against Perdue, we know Zach Edy. He dominates

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Speaker 1: the posts, so often when you're facing Perdue, the guy

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Speaker 1: who scores the most points against Purdue is the player

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Speaker 1: with the highest percentage of shots among the non bigs.

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Speaker 1: You know that will be matched up against Zach Edy

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Speaker 1: quite often and Frensi State, that's Dj Horn. He leads

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Speaker 1: that category Frensy State, shooting on just over twenty eight

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Speaker 1: percent of the possessions he plays. And that's important because

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Speaker 1: Perdue they don't foul they filed the seventh lowest rate

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Speaker 1: in the nation, nor do they force turnovers. They force

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Speaker 1: turnover at the twentieth lowest rate nationally, meaning a lot

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Speaker 1: more of NC State's possessions than in other games will

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Speaker 1: will end in shots, which benefits a high shot rate

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Speaker 1: guy like DJ Horn. Now, NC State also has Jaden

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Speaker 1: Taylor and Casey Morsel, but both of those around twenty

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Speaker 1: percent shot rate guys shot rate guys, and they also

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Speaker 1: like to drive to the rim a lot more, which

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Speaker 1: means you're gonna be contending with Zach Gedy a lot more.

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Speaker 1: But Horn doesn't rely on getting the to the rim

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Speaker 1: or to the line for his points. He has the

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Speaker 1: lowest free throw rate among NC State's main rotation players,

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Speaker 1: and he also like I said, doesn't get to the

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Speaker 1: rim much. He has the lowest rim rate among all

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Speaker 1: of NC State's main rotation players, so he be you know,

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Speaker 1: facing Zach edy a whole lot less, and that means,

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Speaker 1: you know, if if there's no fouling and not getting

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Speaker 1: on the rim, that's perfect for DJ Horn. Also, if

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Speaker 1: we look at the other DJ DJ Burns Junior, right,

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Speaker 1: he's gonna be the guy who he always lines up

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Speaker 1: inside right, whereas DR the other big often is out

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Speaker 1: on the wing looking to take some threes. So DJ

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Speaker 1: Burns Junior is gonna be drawing a lot of Zach Edie.

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Speaker 1: And DJ Burns is great at passing the ball. He

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Speaker 1: gets a lot of assists. So I expect DJ Burns

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Speaker 1: to either hand it off inside to the other big

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Speaker 1: DR who may be coming in from the wing and

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Speaker 1: he has solid matchups against both Trey Kaufman Ren and

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Speaker 1: Mason Gillis, or I expect DJ Burns Junior to kick

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Speaker 1: it out to the other DJ DJ Horn a plenty,

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Speaker 1: and if Burns avoids foul trouble, then he'll rack up

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Speaker 1: a cornucopia of assists. So yeah, we had to get

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Speaker 1: you know, Horn a plenty in there because I think

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Speaker 1: Horn is going to get plenty of points in this one.

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Speaker 1: The other thing about this magical run that NC State

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Speaker 1: has had is they've done it despite Horn actually shooting

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Speaker 1: nearly ten percent below his season long three point made

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Speaker 1: percentage rate makes it around forty one percent on the season,

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Speaker 1: and he's only shot around thirty two percent in this

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Speaker 1: run since you know, he kind of came back from

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Speaker 1: from a miss and then a low minutes game against Syracuse,

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Speaker 1: so that really from that Duke game on in the

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Speaker 1: ACC tournament, he's only been shooting thirty two percent from

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Speaker 1: downtown compared to forty one percent on the season, So

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Speaker 1: if that progresses, that will also help his over here.

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Speaker 1: I expect NC State to live or die by Horn.

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Speaker 1: So this is the spot where I think you can

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Speaker 1: single game parlay, you know, NC State to cover with

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Speaker 1: Horn over on points or if Horn has a bad day,

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Speaker 1: you can parlay the opposite in NC State not to

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Speaker 1: cover and Horn not to reach his points prop And

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Speaker 1: if you play both of those, all that has to

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Speaker 1: happen is one of those to hit for you to

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Speaker 1: be profitable. Given the SGP odds, we'd be getting plus

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Speaker 1: in the over situation, I think you can also parlay

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Speaker 1: DJ Burns juniors over on assists. So there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of ways you can go with this, but just taking

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Speaker 1: the over on fifteen and a half points, I like,

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Speaker 1: we're projecting sixteen and a half points, which is a

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Speaker 1: little thin, but I'm gonna roll with it simply because

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Speaker 1: i love the way this matches up stylistically versus Perdue

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Speaker 1: as well. So I'm gonna go DJ Horn over teen

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Speaker 1: and a half points.

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Speaker 4: Frenzi State Hope, springing eternal for Nick with the underdog.

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Speaker 4: Hopefully you get to cash there. I'll kick it to Sean.

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Speaker 4: Are you going over or under on your prop in

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Speaker 4: this game? Bonus points if you can match the wordplay

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Speaker 4: of Horn of plenty Corn Kope, anything you want to

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Speaker 4: bring to the state.

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Speaker 3: Well, I don't know if I can compete with that,

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Speaker 3: but obviously I'm going with unders or I'm going with

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Speaker 3: an under here because I love unders. I'm going with

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Speaker 3: Tray Coffin Wren of Purdue under six and a half points.

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Speaker 3: You can get it at minus one twenty and I've

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Speaker 3: been loving fading these single digit point props the past

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Speaker 3: couple weeks. Now, I had Jack Clark under seven and

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Speaker 3: a half points, he finished with seven. Josiah Jordan James

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Speaker 3: I had under eight and a half points, he finished

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Speaker 3: with eight. So these can be a bit sweaty. They're

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Speaker 3: not for the faint of heart. I would not be

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Speaker 3: shocked if he finishes close to this, but it just

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Speaker 3: goes to show getting that, you know, extra half point

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Speaker 3: here can be really valuable. But Coffin Ren, you know,

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Speaker 3: he's only cleared this in three of the last ten games,

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Speaker 3: and the three times he did clear it were either

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Speaker 3: blowout game or games that went to overtime. So typically

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Speaker 3: he's going to play around fifteen minutes if it's a

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Speaker 3: normal closer game that you know ends in regulation. So

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Speaker 3: he kind of needs specific outs to clear this number.

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Speaker 3: So assuming we can avoid those, that that's gonna help.

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Speaker 3: But he, you know, he rarely makes you know, three pointers.

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Speaker 3: He's near a fifty percent free throw shooter, so he

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Speaker 3: probably needs to make three field goals to clear this,

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Speaker 3: meaning he probably has to take five or six shot

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Speaker 3: attempts in fifteen minutes of play. And what's a massive game,

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Speaker 3: So I just think the chances of that happening here

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Speaker 3: are a bit lower, so I'm projecting them closer to

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Speaker 3: five and a half points, and again, just that extra

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Speaker 3: point is massive in a small market like this, So

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Speaker 3: I'm showing with about a sixty three percent chance he

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Speaker 3: stays under six and a half, but again, don't be

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Speaker 3: surprised if he finishes with like five or six. And

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Speaker 3: it gets a bit sweaty, But the math is mathing here,

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Speaker 3: and I think I think you'll stay under this.

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Speaker 4: Are you guys are the prop experts, So I want

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Speaker 4: you to grade me out on court vision with my

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Speaker 4: prop bet here in Purdue NCC. I'm going with Braden

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Speaker 4: Smith eight or more assists at plus one twenty eight

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Speaker 4: in the market. And here's like some of the top

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Speaker 4: you know items for me in terms of being on

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Speaker 4: the over on this. He finished that second nationally assist

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Speaker 4: per game this season. He crossed eight or more assists

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Speaker 4: in eighteen of his thirty five starts, So I think,

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Speaker 4: right from the get go, the juice here is a

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Speaker 4: little bit too good to pass up. And then when

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Speaker 4: you look at the NC state side of things, they

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Speaker 4: allow assists on fifty percent of made baskets against them,

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Speaker 4: which ranks one hundred and fifty eighth nationally. So you

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Speaker 4: can move the ball, you can get easy looks, particularly

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Speaker 4: when you're targeting Edy Eaty, someone who finishes in close

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Speaker 4: to the hoop. Smith actually has four assists directly to

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Speaker 4: Dy in each of his last two games against the

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Speaker 4: Zags and against Tennessee, and if you remove Produce blowout

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Speaker 4: over Utah State and Smith's exit due to injury against

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Speaker 4: Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, He's averaged thirty

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Speaker 4: seven minutes per game dating back to late January. So

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Speaker 4: you know, the best ability is availability in my opinion,

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Speaker 4: where you're going for a high end prop. Obviously to

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Speaker 4: get eight or more that'd be a breakout game for him.

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Speaker 4: But he's certainly demonstrated throughout the second half of this

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Speaker 4: season that he is capable. I'll give you first, Sean,

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Speaker 4: Do you think this is a little too much to

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Speaker 4: ask against an NC State defense that actually hasn't been

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Speaker 4: burned by elite point guards? Even Ziegler from Tennessee earlier

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Speaker 4: in the season just finished with eight that was one

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Speaker 4: of the high water marks of a point guard diition

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Speaker 4: out of assists against them. Do you think this is

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Speaker 4: properly priced or am I getting something that's a bit

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Speaker 4: of a value.

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Speaker 3: No, I think you're certainly getting some value here, especially

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Speaker 3: with plus money. We're projecting him closer to eight assists.

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Speaker 3: If you mentioned his minutes have been reduced when they're

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Speaker 3: blowing a team out or he left due to injury,

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Speaker 3: there's a chance he plays the entire game here, So

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Speaker 3: there is a buffer here. We're projecting him for thirty

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Speaker 3: six and a half minutes, so there's a chance he

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Speaker 3: can go for more. So I think there's a potential

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Speaker 3: out there. I'm hoping you get this. I'm just hoping

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Speaker 3: these assists don't go to Coffin Ren and like you said,

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Speaker 3: they just all go to Zach g eee.

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Speaker 4: What do you think, doctor Nick? Plus one twenty eight

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Speaker 4: is that something you'd be interested in sprinkling on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely. Like Sean said, you know, thirty six and

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Speaker 1: a half minutes is kind of our you know, projection

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Speaker 1: for him, but you know, definitely he could play thirty eight,

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Speaker 1: thirty nine, forty even, so there's definitely upside for more.

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Speaker 1: And even just using our thirty six and a half

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Speaker 1: minute projection, we're getting this almost as exactly is a

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Speaker 1: coin flip in terms of the percentage that he clears.

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Speaker 1: Is so if you get in plus one twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: That's a pretty significant value. And here's the other thing.

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Speaker 1: You know, NC State, they are kind of just like

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Speaker 1: your average team in terms of things we look at

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Speaker 1: when grading out assists. They allow right around average in

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Speaker 1: terms of assists rate allowed on midfield goals. They're right

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Speaker 1: around averaging turnovers forced. If you're forcing turnovers a whole

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Speaker 1: bunch of them, then there's fewer chances for you to

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Speaker 1: get an assists because your possessions ending in a turnover,

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Speaker 1: and they're right around average in foul rate, so they're

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Speaker 1: not sending guys the line and you know, preventing potential

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Speaker 1: assists that way. So this is a spot where Braden

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Speaker 1: Smith should just be able to kind of match his

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Speaker 1: consistent assist rate and from there, it's just a minutes game.

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Speaker 1: You play thirty six and a half minutes or more,

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Speaker 1: we'd expect at least a fifty percent chance of this hitting.

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Speaker 4: The second game in the Final four, Yukon, the defending

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Speaker 4: national champs, up against Alabama. They are in eleven and

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Speaker 4: a half point favorite. Other than them missing their flight

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Speaker 4: and having you know, some issues getting over to Phoenix,

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Speaker 4: it seems like it's been pretty smooth sailing for them

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Speaker 4: throughout this NCAA tournament. Just don't ask their coach Curly

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Speaker 4: because he thinks that the committee is at to get

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Speaker 4: him that everybody wants to see them lose. They've played

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Speaker 4: like their hair's been on fire the entire time, blowing

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Speaker 4: teams out, going on thirty to runs. Just an incredible

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Speaker 4: performance for a team that looks hungry to repeat, not

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Speaker 4: one that's coasting, you know, resting on their laurels in

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Speaker 4: this game. I don't have a player prop, although I

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Speaker 4: think a prop is of interest, and it's Alabama to

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Speaker 4: lead at halftime and Yukon to win the game at

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Speaker 4: six to one. One of the reasons why I like

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Speaker 4: this one a lot. Alabama second in the country with

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Speaker 4: over forty two points per game in the first half.

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Speaker 4: Yukon leads the country in second half margin at plus

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Speaker 4: eight point four points per game in the second twenty minutes,

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Speaker 4: So I could see a similar game script that they

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Speaker 4: get six or seven threes go down for the Crimson

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Speaker 4: Tide in the first half, build up a five or

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Speaker 4: six point lead, and then Alabama just tighten the vice

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Speaker 4: script in the second half, lean on their elite defense,

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Speaker 4: particularly inside the arc, and the way that they run

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Speaker 4: sets they're made for, you know, half court basketball, critical possessions,

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Speaker 4: the stress and pressure of those moments late in games.

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Speaker 4: So I think there's a better chance of them putting

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Speaker 4: Alabama away late than necessarily them coming out and blowing

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Speaker 4: them out right out of the gate. Because this really

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Speaker 4: is the three point variance game of the entire tournament.

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Speaker 4: Alabama is gonna shoot thirty plus in this one. So

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Speaker 4: I'll ask you this first, Nick, I'm not sure if

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Speaker 4: you have a player prop on this game, but you

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Speaker 4: target like the three point ladders in this one because

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Speaker 4: you know that sears and a lot of their perimeter

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Speaker 4: weapons are just gonna put up a ton, So why

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Speaker 4: not potentially look for a three or four in the

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Speaker 4: market as opposed to what their set number is.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is interesting because this isn't the necessarily the

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Speaker 1: best matchup to target these three point ladders. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you look at Yukon, they're below average in terms

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Speaker 1: of percentage points allowed via the three pointer. Right, they

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Speaker 1: allow the forty eighth lowest three point attempt to field

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Speaker 1: goal attempt ratio in the nation, and they're the twenty

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Speaker 1: eighth best team in the nation in terms of just

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Speaker 1: three point percentage made against. So they're allowing fewer threes,

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Speaker 1: and when they are facing threes, they're forcing teams to

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Speaker 1: miss those threes at a higher rate. So there's certainly

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Speaker 1: some variants here. But you know, I think, like you said,

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Speaker 1: the way to play that might be that first half Alabama,

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Speaker 1: second half Connecticut because Yukon you mentioned their highest second

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Speaker 1: half margin in the nation. Well that's even coming with

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Speaker 1: a lot of times where they're subbing out guys early

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Speaker 1: stets in you know, sub and out starters early Northwestern

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Speaker 1: subbing out starters a little bit early, so this could

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Speaker 1: even be bigger second half margins for Yukon, where they

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Speaker 1: really just they're so complete, so an all around team

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Speaker 1: that eventually they just clamp down and they impose their

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Speaker 1: will on their opponents. So I'm staying away maybe from

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Speaker 1: the three point ladders. And the other question here, which

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Speaker 1: is why I don't have a player prop yet for this,

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Speaker 1: is Latrelle right Sell. He's been dealing with a head injury.

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Speaker 1: Does he come back, does he play? If he does,

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Speaker 1: that'll impact some minutes here. It could impact minutes for

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Speaker 1: Grant Nelson or Nick Pringle, a couple of those guys

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Speaker 1: where I might be looking at their unders. If right

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Speaker 1: Cell is definitely a go, but right now he seems

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Speaker 1: probable to play, but still probably waiting a little bit

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Speaker 1: on that confirmation.

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Speaker 4: Sean, are you keeping your money on the sidelines or

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Speaker 4: is there someone you're pulling the trigger on in the

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Speaker 4: prop market right now?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm just keeping my money on the sighlines for now,

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Speaker 3: But I'm gonna be interested in some unders, Like you know,

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Speaker 3: Nick mentioned, if right Cells back, which it seems like

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Speaker 3: he is more probable, I'll probably look at like some

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Speaker 3: Grant and Nelson props. There's a chance he gets in

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Speaker 3: early foul trouble here, so I'll probably be looking to

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Speaker 3: fad him. But yeah, I just want to get more

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Speaker 3: confirmation about right sell and Dive in this match au

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Speaker 3: little bit more so, don't have anything on this matchup

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Speaker 3: quite yet.

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Speaker 4: That's it for us. Thanks for listening to the Action

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Speaker 4: Network podcast presented by Bett MGM. We'll be back tomorrow

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Speaker 4: for our usual UFC preview episode for Sean Turner, Nick Giffon.

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Speaker 4: I'm Mike Calabrey's. Thanks for listening.

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Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

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