1 00:00:15,450 --> 00:00:26,620 Speaker 1: Pushkin. As darkness falls, late on a summer evening in 2 00:00:26,660 --> 00:00:30,540 Speaker 1: the English countryside, 12 groups of people make their way 3 00:00:30,620 --> 00:00:35,030 Speaker 1: towards a field of wheat, carrying planks of wood, ropes 4 00:00:35,510 --> 00:00:42,370 Speaker 1: and various other implements. The year is 1992. We're in Buckinghamshire, England. 5 00:00:43,510 --> 00:00:47,620 Speaker 1: The night is cloudy. A shame. What they're about to 6 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,300 Speaker 1: do in this field, they're supposed to do without being 7 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:57,220 Speaker 1: seen or heard. Moonlight would have helped. Some people have 8 00:00:57,260 --> 00:01:02,260 Speaker 1: come in camouflage. Sensible. But they've got torches strapped to 9 00:01:02,300 --> 00:01:07,750 Speaker 1: their heads. That'll draw unwelcome attention. There are schoolboys. There's 10 00:01:07,790 --> 00:01:12,470 Speaker 1: a young American grad student who's working alone. Two women 11 00:01:12,510 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 1: have brought their Pyrenean mountain dog, Yeti, These dogs are huge. 12 00:01:17,420 --> 00:01:21,260 Speaker 1: They can weigh over 100 pounds. They're bred to protect sheep. 13 00:01:21,970 --> 00:01:25,190 Speaker 1: But Yeti has been specially trained for the task at hand. 14 00:01:26,610 --> 00:01:32,510 Speaker 1: That task is making crop circles. Over the previous few years, 15 00:01:32,990 --> 00:01:38,950 Speaker 1: crop circles had caused a media sensation in England. They'd 16 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:44,580 Speaker 1: appear suddenly, overnight, in some farmer's field, elaborate formations made 17 00:01:44,620 --> 00:01:49,840 Speaker 1: from flattened crops. Newspapers would print aerial photos. So many 18 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,310 Speaker 1: curious people would turn up to look that farmers began 19 00:01:53,390 --> 00:01:56,770 Speaker 1: to charge for admission, a way to recoup some losses 20 00:01:56,830 --> 00:02:01,090 Speaker 1: from the damage they caused. What was making these crop circles? 21 00:02:02,310 --> 00:02:10,430 Speaker 1: Was it aliens? Or some unusual meteorological phenomenon, perhaps? Or aliens? 22 00:02:11,750 --> 00:02:14,150 Speaker 1: Maybe it was humans doing it for a laugh, a 23 00:02:14,170 --> 00:02:19,820 Speaker 1: kind of performance art. Or It could be aliens. And so, 24 00:02:20,550 --> 00:02:25,270 Speaker 1: a competition, an experiment. Twelve teams will spend the night 25 00:02:25,510 --> 00:02:29,130 Speaker 1: in a farmer's field in Buckinghamshire, tasked with completing a 26 00:02:29,170 --> 00:02:33,870 Speaker 1: crop circle between the hours of 10pm and 3am. Not 27 00:02:33,910 --> 00:02:37,700 Speaker 1: just a simple circle, they've been given a specific design. 28 00:02:38,340 --> 00:02:43,820 Speaker 1: Concentric rings, a triangle, various lines. Each team has been 29 00:02:43,860 --> 00:02:49,310 Speaker 1: assigned their own section of field. At dawn, a helicopter 30 00:02:49,330 --> 00:02:53,870 Speaker 1: will fly over to photograph their efforts from above. Judges 31 00:02:53,910 --> 00:02:56,670 Speaker 1: will award each team points for how well they've done. 32 00:02:57,510 --> 00:03:02,930 Speaker 1: The winner will get £ 3, 000, close to $ 15, 000 in today's money. 33 00:03:03,530 --> 00:03:07,790 Speaker 1: Not bad for a night's work. But the real point 34 00:03:07,830 --> 00:03:11,130 Speaker 1: of this experiment isn't to crown a winner. It's to 35 00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:15,300 Speaker 1: see what's possible. The organisers want to find out if 36 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: humans really are capable of making intricate designs in crops, surreptitiously, overnight, 37 00:03:23,300 --> 00:03:29,260 Speaker 1: or if other explanations need to be sought, such as aliens. 38 00:03:30,500 --> 00:03:58,750 Speaker 1: I'm Tim Harford, and you're listening to Cautionary Tales. In 39 00:03:58,910 --> 00:04:03,010 Speaker 1: England in the late 1950s, a common weekend leisure activity 40 00:04:03,050 --> 00:04:05,930 Speaker 1: was to go for a drive. Not to get anywhere, 41 00:04:06,290 --> 00:04:09,240 Speaker 1: just to enjoy pookling around the countryside in your car. 42 00:04:09,980 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: On Sunday afternoons, 12-year-old Colin Andrews would often go for 43 00:04:14,460 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 1: a drive with his dad and mum and younger brother. 44 00:04:17,750 --> 00:04:21,810 Speaker 1: They lived near Stonehenge, the famous Stone Circle, thousands of 45 00:04:21,850 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: years old, and a place of pilgrimage for pagans. neo-druids 46 00:04:26,610 --> 00:04:32,010 Speaker 1: and various other New Age movements. One Sunday, young Colin, 47 00:04:32,510 --> 00:04:37,290 Speaker 1: for some inexplicable reason, decided to stay at home instead 48 00:04:37,330 --> 00:04:41,210 Speaker 1: of joining his family on their drive. It's a decision 49 00:04:41,430 --> 00:04:46,250 Speaker 1: he would bitterly regret. When his parents and brother got home, 50 00:04:46,870 --> 00:04:50,700 Speaker 1: they told him what had happened. On a narrow country 51 00:04:50,740 --> 00:04:54,230 Speaker 1: lane not far from Stonehenge, Over the top of some 52 00:04:54,390 --> 00:04:58,050 Speaker 1: conifer trees less than a hundred metres away, said Colin's family, 53 00:04:58,650 --> 00:05:05,110 Speaker 1: a disc-shaped object suddenly appeared, a silvery craft swaying from 54 00:05:05,250 --> 00:05:09,910 Speaker 1: side to side in the air. They stopped. Colin's dad 55 00:05:09,930 --> 00:05:13,780 Speaker 1: and brother got out of the car. They watched as 56 00:05:13,790 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 1: the craft began to rise up. Colin's mum had stayed 57 00:05:17,740 --> 00:05:23,860 Speaker 1: in the car. She was terrified. Get back, she yelled. Suddenly, 58 00:05:24,020 --> 00:05:28,870 Speaker 1: they told Colin, a narrow beam of white light shot 59 00:05:29,150 --> 00:05:31,310 Speaker 1: out of the bottom of the craft. It flew away 60 00:05:31,350 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 1: at an extraordinary rate of speed. The 12-year-old was deeply 61 00:05:41,160 --> 00:05:45,240 Speaker 1: affected to hear of his family's close encounter. I felt 62 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 1: somewhere deep inside, Colin recalls, that I should have been 63 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:58,770 Speaker 1: there with them. the years passed. Colin grew up, got married, 64 00:05:59,170 --> 00:06:03,050 Speaker 1: became an electrical engineer, and made a career in local government, 65 00:06:03,750 --> 00:06:08,040 Speaker 1: where he enjoyed a series of rapid promotions into middle management. 66 00:06:09,020 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: But Colin's conventional life was about to be turned upside down. 67 00:06:15,980 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: In summer 1983… Colin, now in his late 30s, happened 68 00:06:21,280 --> 00:06:26,080 Speaker 1: upon a field in which crops lay flattened, mysteriously, in 69 00:06:26,120 --> 00:06:31,070 Speaker 1: a set of five circles. Crop circles were not yet 70 00:06:31,130 --> 00:06:35,510 Speaker 1: a media phenomenon. Hardly anyone had even noticed them. Indeed, 71 00:06:35,850 --> 00:06:40,350 Speaker 1: they weren't even called crop circles. It was Colin himself 72 00:06:40,430 --> 00:06:44,970 Speaker 1: who would later coin the term. Colin recalls that as 73 00:06:45,030 --> 00:06:48,290 Speaker 1: he stood in that field... It was like a switch 74 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 1: was thrown in my stomach. An overwhelming emotional and spiritual effect, 75 00:06:54,260 --> 00:06:57,880 Speaker 1: awe and wonder overwhelmed me like a white light permeating 76 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: every cell of my body. The memories of missing out 77 00:07:02,420 --> 00:07:06,660 Speaker 1: on a close encounter as a 12-year-old came flooding back. 78 00:07:07,620 --> 00:07:14,820 Speaker 1: The events felt connected. Colin had a strong sense that 79 00:07:14,860 --> 00:07:20,260 Speaker 1: he was being presented with an assignment, a mission. Understanding 80 00:07:20,420 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 1: crop circles became his quest. Colin knocked on doors and 81 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:32,740 Speaker 1: spoke to farmers. At home, he'd listen to police radio, 82 00:07:33,180 --> 00:07:39,810 Speaker 1: unencrypted in those days, for reports of UFO activity. Soon 83 00:07:39,850 --> 00:07:42,590 Speaker 1: he met another man who lived nearby and had also 84 00:07:42,650 --> 00:07:46,910 Speaker 1: developed an interest in these flattened crops. Pat Delgado was 85 00:07:46,970 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 1: a retired engineer who'd had an interesting career, including seven 86 00:07:51,840 --> 00:07:54,740 Speaker 1: years in the Australian desert, where he worked at a 87 00:07:54,820 --> 00:07:59,780 Speaker 1: NASA deep space monitoring station. Pat says, This aroused my 88 00:07:59,820 --> 00:08:04,630 Speaker 1: interest in unusual or inexplicable phenomena. Whenever they heard of 89 00:08:04,690 --> 00:08:08,230 Speaker 1: a new circle, Colin and Pat would drive over to 90 00:08:08,290 --> 00:08:12,220 Speaker 1: take photos. lifting their camera on a metal pole for 91 00:08:12,260 --> 00:08:16,620 Speaker 1: a better view. They'd take careful measurements using a tape 92 00:08:16,660 --> 00:08:19,540 Speaker 1: and compass. They'd note the direction in which the crops 93 00:08:19,590 --> 00:08:23,270 Speaker 1: had been flattened. They'd take samples of soil to send 94 00:08:23,370 --> 00:08:27,970 Speaker 1: to labs for analysis. At home, in an office he'd 95 00:08:28,010 --> 00:08:31,710 Speaker 1: made in his garden shed, Colin put up a large 96 00:08:31,790 --> 00:08:35,970 Speaker 1: map of southern England and plotted the locations of crop 97 00:08:36,030 --> 00:08:40,320 Speaker 1: circles using coloured pins. he'd sit at his desk and 98 00:08:40,380 --> 00:08:43,550 Speaker 1: stare at the map, trying to discern a pattern in 99 00:08:43,570 --> 00:08:50,890 Speaker 1: the pins without success, until one night, something exceedingly strange happened. 100 00:08:52,710 --> 00:08:56,170 Speaker 1: Colin's shed was highly protected, as was the rest of 101 00:08:56,210 --> 00:09:01,080 Speaker 1: his home. With his expertise in electrical engineering, Colin had 102 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:05,060 Speaker 1: rigged up an elaborate system of burglar alarms with loud 103 00:09:05,140 --> 00:09:09,380 Speaker 1: buzzers and bright lights. At 4.15 in the morning, they 104 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:14,250 Speaker 1: went off, waking Colin, his wife, and all their neighbours. 105 00:09:16,350 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: Colin inspected his system for faults, but everything was functioning perfectly. Strange. 106 00:09:23,920 --> 00:09:28,040 Speaker 1: The next night, at 4.15am, the alarms went off again. 107 00:09:29,300 --> 00:09:32,260 Speaker 1: And the night after that. And the night after that. 108 00:09:33,590 --> 00:09:38,140 Speaker 1: This went on for 14 nights in a row, Colin recalls, adding, 109 00:09:38,780 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 1: none of the neighbours were very pleased about what was happening. 110 00:09:43,340 --> 00:09:48,940 Speaker 1: After yet another 4.15am check that everything was functioning perfectly, 111 00:09:49,780 --> 00:09:54,170 Speaker 1: Colin sat groggily at his desk and gazed again at 112 00:09:54,210 --> 00:09:58,750 Speaker 1: the map. Then he had a moment of insight that 113 00:09:59,050 --> 00:10:01,570 Speaker 1: struck me like a cold wind in the face while 114 00:10:01,650 --> 00:10:05,860 Speaker 1: standing in the middle of a desert. Colin noticed that 115 00:10:05,900 --> 00:10:08,930 Speaker 1: the pins could be seen as forming a kind of 116 00:10:09,330 --> 00:10:13,250 Speaker 1: equilateral triangle. Admittedly, you had to view the sides of 117 00:10:13,310 --> 00:10:18,730 Speaker 1: that triangle as corridors several miles wide. Colin measured the 118 00:10:18,770 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: length of those sides. It was 41.5 miles. All the 119 00:10:26,280 --> 00:10:29,830 Speaker 1: hair on my neck and arms stood up. says Colin. 120 00:10:30,590 --> 00:10:39,420 Speaker 1: I realised I had been sent a message. 41.5 miles, 121 00:10:39,420 --> 00:10:47,300 Speaker 1: 4.15 in the morning, 4, 1, 5. The alarms never 122 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:55,310 Speaker 1: went off at 4.15 again. Cautionary Tales will be back 123 00:10:56,090 --> 00:11:05,930 Speaker 1: after the break. In 1989, Colin Andrews and Pat Delgado 124 00:11:06,140 --> 00:11:11,230 Speaker 1: published a book, Circular Evidence. They set out their photos 125 00:11:11,290 --> 00:11:14,870 Speaker 1: and measurements and considered all the theories they'd heard put 126 00:11:14,990 --> 00:11:20,470 Speaker 1: forward for how these circles might form. Lightning? Magnetic field? 127 00:11:21,050 --> 00:11:28,060 Speaker 1: Static electricity? None could explain everything. Humans? Yes, they'd seen 128 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: a couple of obvious hoaxes, but... Based on considerable experience, 129 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,050 Speaker 1: they wrote, we think there are certain aspects of a 130 00:11:37,190 --> 00:11:41,250 Speaker 1: true circle that could never be produced by machine or manually. 131 00:11:42,330 --> 00:11:47,670 Speaker 1: Colin recounts his strange experience with the 415 alarms. Even 132 00:11:47,730 --> 00:11:51,210 Speaker 1: his wife, who is not interested in the paranormal, thought 133 00:11:51,250 --> 00:11:56,190 Speaker 1: that some entity appeared to be behind these events. So, 134 00:11:56,910 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 1: could the paranormal explanation be... Aliens? Yes, it was possible. 135 00:12:04,520 --> 00:12:08,200 Speaker 1: Pat Delgado mentions that he's already published his ideas on 136 00:12:08,260 --> 00:12:14,260 Speaker 1: this question in the worldwide magazine Flying Saucer Review. In 137 00:12:14,280 --> 00:12:17,940 Speaker 1: the book, he merely concludes that the circles seem to 138 00:12:17,980 --> 00:12:22,780 Speaker 1: be created by an unknown force field manipulated by an 139 00:12:23,100 --> 00:12:28,690 Speaker 1: unknown intelligence. Over a pint in a pub, Two blokes 140 00:12:28,730 --> 00:12:32,790 Speaker 1: called Doug and Dave read this and crease up laughing. 141 00:12:34,930 --> 00:12:37,990 Speaker 1: Doug and Dave were friends who lived in southern England 142 00:12:38,310 --> 00:12:40,730 Speaker 1: and met up every Friday night in a country pub 143 00:12:40,790 --> 00:12:44,080 Speaker 1: for a beer or three and a natter. One night 144 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 1: in the late 1970s, the conversation turned to UFOs. Doug 145 00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:53,340 Speaker 1: remembered reading a story about a tractor driver in Australia 146 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:57,280 Speaker 1: who claimed he'd seen a UFO taking off from a field. 147 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:00,880 Speaker 1: where the grass had been flattened in a swirling pattern. 148 00:13:03,380 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: Doug pointed to a field near the pub. What if 149 00:13:06,540 --> 00:13:09,570 Speaker 1: we flattened that wheat in a circle, he said to Dave. 150 00:13:10,010 --> 00:13:13,430 Speaker 1: Would people think a UFO had landed here? An amusing 151 00:13:13,510 --> 00:13:17,710 Speaker 1: thought after a few drinks. But no, actually, would they? 152 00:13:20,610 --> 00:13:24,020 Speaker 1: The next Friday, Doug brought along a heavy metal bar. 153 00:13:24,790 --> 00:13:29,180 Speaker 1: Fortified by ale, Doug and Dave left the pub and 154 00:13:29,250 --> 00:13:32,740 Speaker 1: sneaked into the field of wheat. They put down the 155 00:13:32,780 --> 00:13:36,100 Speaker 1: metal bar and pushed it round in a circle. Then 156 00:13:36,180 --> 00:13:39,000 Speaker 1: they moved the bar outwards and pushed it round again, 157 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:43,570 Speaker 1: on their hands and knees, enlarging the circle. Once in 158 00:13:43,590 --> 00:13:46,210 Speaker 1: a while they'd poke their head above the wheat stalks 159 00:13:46,290 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: to make sure nobody had spotted them. After half an hour, 160 00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:54,850 Speaker 1: they'd flattened wheat in a swirling circle about 30 feet across. 161 00:13:55,570 --> 00:14:02,030 Speaker 1: Wide enough, they decided. Alas, there was no speculation about UFOs. 162 00:14:02,470 --> 00:14:08,520 Speaker 1: Nobody seemed to notice what they'd done. Still, Doug and 163 00:14:08,560 --> 00:14:12,670 Speaker 1: Dave had enjoyed themselves. They were not young men. Dave 164 00:14:12,690 --> 00:14:16,270 Speaker 1: was in his late forties, Doug his early fifties, but 165 00:14:16,310 --> 00:14:20,310 Speaker 1: their little escapade had made them feel young again, like 166 00:14:20,690 --> 00:14:24,290 Speaker 1: mischievous adolescents doing something daft and illicit by the light 167 00:14:24,330 --> 00:14:28,270 Speaker 1: of the moon. Whenever they emerged from their Friday drinking 168 00:14:28,310 --> 00:14:31,690 Speaker 1: sessions to find the summer night was warm and pleasant, 169 00:14:32,110 --> 00:14:35,110 Speaker 1: they'd amuse themselves by making another circle in a field 170 00:14:35,200 --> 00:14:39,660 Speaker 1: on their way home. They improved their technique, swapping the 171 00:14:39,700 --> 00:14:42,900 Speaker 1: metal bar for a wooden plank with ropes tied to 172 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: each end. They'd hold the ropes and stomp down the 173 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:51,810 Speaker 1: plank as they walked. That was easier and quicker. They 174 00:14:51,830 --> 00:14:57,630 Speaker 1: became more strategic, choosing spots on slopes, near public roads, 175 00:14:58,010 --> 00:15:00,910 Speaker 1: where there was a better chance people would notice the circles, 176 00:15:01,690 --> 00:15:05,510 Speaker 1: even if that meant driving further afield to find good locations. 177 00:15:06,320 --> 00:15:10,740 Speaker 1: They made new designs. A big circle with four smaller 178 00:15:10,820 --> 00:15:13,300 Speaker 1: ones around it. They thought it would look like a 179 00:15:13,480 --> 00:15:17,980 Speaker 1: four-legged spaceship had landed, Doug told the American author Jim 180 00:15:18,050 --> 00:15:27,350 Speaker 1: Schnabel for his book Round in Circles. Bingo. At last, 181 00:15:27,450 --> 00:15:30,170 Speaker 1: one of Doug and Dave's creations made it into the 182 00:15:30,230 --> 00:15:37,180 Speaker 1: local newspaper, duly accompanied by speculation about extraterrestrials. Dave recalled, 183 00:15:37,540 --> 00:15:39,780 Speaker 1: we laughed so much we had to stop the car. 184 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:45,470 Speaker 1: Doug was in stitches so much he couldn't drive. The 185 00:15:45,510 --> 00:15:49,130 Speaker 1: national papers picked up the story, then the global media. 186 00:15:49,810 --> 00:15:52,970 Speaker 1: Doug began to keep a folder of press clippings. He 187 00:15:53,190 --> 00:15:57,950 Speaker 1: especially enjoyed Pat Delgado's articles in the Flying Saucer Review, 188 00:15:58,390 --> 00:16:02,230 Speaker 1: explaining how Doug and Dave's creations could only have been 189 00:16:02,270 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: made by a higher intelligence. One day, Doug's wife confronted him. 190 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:13,980 Speaker 1: She had noticed that when he supposedly went out for 191 00:16:14,020 --> 00:16:16,660 Speaker 1: a beer with his mate Dave, the mileage on the 192 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,680 Speaker 1: car went up by a suspiciously large amount. Where was 193 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,590 Speaker 1: he going? He was seeing another woman, wasn't he? Of 194 00:16:24,630 --> 00:16:28,010 Speaker 1: course not, said Doug. He showed his wife his folder 195 00:16:28,030 --> 00:16:31,050 Speaker 1: of press clippings and said, That's what I've been doing 196 00:16:31,070 --> 00:16:34,630 Speaker 1: with Dave on Friday nights. It's been our secret, but 197 00:16:34,700 --> 00:16:38,730 Speaker 1: now you know. Doug's wife said, I don't believe you. 198 00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,820 Speaker 1: So the next Friday, Doug's wife came along and watched 199 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:47,400 Speaker 1: as her husband and his friend got their crop circle-making 200 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 1: equipment out of the car, the wooden plank with ropes, 201 00:16:51,700 --> 00:16:54,580 Speaker 1: a wooden crosspiece and length of string to position the 202 00:16:54,660 --> 00:17:00,580 Speaker 1: small circles for the UFO's legs. As the 1980s went by, 203 00:17:01,020 --> 00:17:04,900 Speaker 1: Doug and Dave saw more and more reports of circles 204 00:17:04,980 --> 00:17:08,730 Speaker 1: that were nothing to do with them, This epidemic of 205 00:17:08,810 --> 00:17:13,070 Speaker 1: elaborate crop flattening might have been irksome for farmers, but 206 00:17:13,110 --> 00:17:16,290 Speaker 1: it was thrilling for a growing band of crop circle 207 00:17:16,330 --> 00:17:22,770 Speaker 1: researchers like Pat and Colin. They gave themselves a name, seriologists. 208 00:17:23,420 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: They held international conferences. A local newspaper, the Andover Advertiser, 209 00:17:29,780 --> 00:17:33,400 Speaker 1: reported that Colin Andrews had been invited to chair a 210 00:17:33,540 --> 00:17:38,490 Speaker 1: seriology conference in Japan. but his employer, the local government, 211 00:17:38,910 --> 00:17:42,140 Speaker 1: wouldn't let him go. I had three days' holiday left, 212 00:17:42,700 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: Colin complains, and requested two more days, but I was refused. 213 00:17:48,360 --> 00:17:51,200 Speaker 1: I think it's a pretty poor show. I consider that 214 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,720 Speaker 1: the growing scientific interest in the circles should merit the 215 00:17:54,780 --> 00:17:59,000 Speaker 1: same sort of treatment as, say, a top-class athlete being 216 00:17:59,040 --> 00:18:02,000 Speaker 1: released by a local authority to compete for his country. 217 00:18:05,260 --> 00:18:10,060 Speaker 1: By 1991, Doug and Dave were getting tired of making circles. 218 00:18:10,710 --> 00:18:14,190 Speaker 1: They were both in their 60s now. Colin Andrews and 219 00:18:14,290 --> 00:18:19,070 Speaker 1: Pat Delgado had published their book, Circular Evidence, which, remarkably, 220 00:18:19,470 --> 00:18:23,870 Speaker 1: became a bestseller. So many circles were appearing and so 221 00:18:23,910 --> 00:18:26,720 Speaker 1: many people were curious that it was getting harder not 222 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:30,640 Speaker 1: to be caught. One night, as Doug and Dave were 223 00:18:30,700 --> 00:18:33,620 Speaker 1: about to enter a field, a police car pulled up. 224 00:18:34,660 --> 00:18:37,640 Speaker 1: They managed to ditch their planks and told the cover 225 00:18:37,680 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: story they'd rehearsed. They were amateur wildlife sound recordists. Doug 226 00:18:44,260 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 1: produced his recording equipment. The policeman bought the story. Still, 227 00:18:50,670 --> 00:18:54,430 Speaker 1: a close shave. This wasn't as much fun as it 228 00:18:54,570 --> 00:18:58,250 Speaker 1: used to be. Doug and Dave decided it was time 229 00:18:58,330 --> 00:19:03,210 Speaker 1: to come clean. They phoned the news desk of a 230 00:19:03,270 --> 00:19:07,070 Speaker 1: daily paper. A journalist found a farmer who was willing 231 00:19:07,110 --> 00:19:10,210 Speaker 1: to let them borrow a field. As the journalist watched, 232 00:19:10,510 --> 00:19:13,730 Speaker 1: Doug and Dave created one of their designs in the crop. 233 00:19:15,200 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: Then the journalist called Pat Delgado to alert him that 234 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:23,100 Speaker 1: a mysterious new circle had been discovered. Pat duly drove 235 00:19:23,220 --> 00:19:28,210 Speaker 1: over and walked right into the trap. He told the 236 00:19:28,250 --> 00:19:32,470 Speaker 1: journalist no human could have done this. The journalist introduced 237 00:19:32,490 --> 00:19:36,010 Speaker 1: him to Doug and Dave. who explained everything. Doug said 238 00:19:36,030 --> 00:19:39,100 Speaker 1: to Pat Delgado, I'm afraid we've been having you on. 239 00:19:41,840 --> 00:19:47,060 Speaker 1: Pat was stunned. He mused aloud, we've all been conned. 240 00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:52,660 Speaker 1: He considered the implications further. If everything you say is true, 241 00:19:53,660 --> 00:20:03,610 Speaker 1: I'll look the fool. In 1980, a team led by 242 00:20:03,670 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 1: psychologist Craig Anderson ran a classic experiment. They asked students 243 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:13,060 Speaker 1: to analyse the results of a personality test taken by 244 00:20:13,180 --> 00:20:16,860 Speaker 1: two firefighters, one who was good at their job, one 245 00:20:17,060 --> 00:20:20,290 Speaker 1: who was not. The questions on the personality test were 246 00:20:20,350 --> 00:20:24,730 Speaker 1: designed to assess someone's propensity to take risks or be cautious. 247 00:20:25,550 --> 00:20:28,470 Speaker 1: One group of students was given test results showing the 248 00:20:28,490 --> 00:20:33,070 Speaker 1: good firefighter was a risk-taker, while the incompetent one was cautious. 249 00:20:34,010 --> 00:20:36,770 Speaker 1: A second group was shown that the good firefighter was 250 00:20:36,830 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: cautious and the bad one was the risk-taker. Once the 251 00:20:40,660 --> 00:20:44,790 Speaker 1: students had turned in their papers, Anderson told them... These 252 00:20:44,830 --> 00:20:49,030 Speaker 1: two firefighters and their test results were completely fictitious. He'd 253 00:20:49,050 --> 00:20:52,420 Speaker 1: made the whole thing up. Then came the real point 254 00:20:52,470 --> 00:20:57,460 Speaker 1: of Anderson's experiment. He said, It's an interesting question though, 255 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:02,380 Speaker 1: isn't it? Would people with risk-taking personalities tend to make 256 00:21:02,640 --> 00:21:07,620 Speaker 1: better or worse firefighters? What do you think? The students 257 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: in the first group tended to believe risk-takers would make 258 00:21:11,120 --> 00:21:16,610 Speaker 1: better firefighters. In the second group, Worse, the idea Anderson 259 00:21:16,670 --> 00:21:22,090 Speaker 1: was studying is called belief perseverance, and it's remarkably powerful. 260 00:21:22,970 --> 00:21:27,380 Speaker 1: Even when the students knew the evidence they'd seen was fictitious, 261 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:34,830 Speaker 1: they couldn't quite bring themselves to revise their beliefs. Pat 262 00:21:34,940 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: Delgado had just stood in a crop circle and told 263 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:42,740 Speaker 1: a journalist, no human could have done this, then been 264 00:21:42,860 --> 00:21:46,200 Speaker 1: introduced to Doug and Dave, the humans who did it. 265 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:52,410 Speaker 1: Pat called in his co-author, Colin Andrews. Sit down, Pat said. 266 00:21:52,430 --> 00:21:56,650 Speaker 1: This is bad news. He explained to Colin what was 267 00:21:56,690 --> 00:22:00,430 Speaker 1: going to be published in the following morning's paper. But 268 00:22:00,470 --> 00:22:05,470 Speaker 1: then belief perseverance kicked in. The very next day, in 269 00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:09,510 Speaker 1: yet another farmer's field, the newly famous Doug and Dave 270 00:22:09,570 --> 00:22:12,750 Speaker 1: had just given a demonstration of their skills to members 271 00:22:12,810 --> 00:22:16,930 Speaker 1: of the global media when Colin and Pat turned up 272 00:22:17,690 --> 00:22:22,730 Speaker 1: all guns blazing. This is obviously a fake, Colin told 273 00:22:22,770 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 1: the assembled journalists. We saw everything we'd expect to see 274 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,420 Speaker 1: in a hoax. It's extremely ragged. There's nothing here to 275 00:22:30,500 --> 00:22:36,450 Speaker 1: impress us, except two very fit 60-year-olds. Pat Delgado chipped in. 276 00:22:36,910 --> 00:22:40,250 Speaker 1: Yesterday there were circles discovered on a prairie in Canada. 277 00:22:40,730 --> 00:22:43,890 Speaker 1: Have these guys been out there? Pat had a point. 278 00:22:44,390 --> 00:22:47,550 Speaker 1: Doug and Dave might have made some circles, but how 279 00:22:47,630 --> 00:22:52,070 Speaker 1: could anyone prove that humans made all circles? You couldn't. 280 00:22:53,750 --> 00:22:57,430 Speaker 1: But you could do the next best thing. Investigate what 281 00:22:57,470 --> 00:23:01,610 Speaker 1: the best human crop circle makers were capable of and 282 00:23:01,750 --> 00:23:04,770 Speaker 1: see if their skills left any mystery to be resolved. 283 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:12,280 Speaker 1: How might you do that? Maybe a competition? Cautionary Tales 284 00:23:12,660 --> 00:23:29,400 Speaker 1: will return. Twelve teams signed up to compete in the 285 00:23:29,500 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: crop circle-making competition in Buckinghamshire in July 1992. A farmer's 286 00:23:35,620 --> 00:23:39,850 Speaker 1: field was divided into 12 plots. The teams would compete 287 00:23:39,910 --> 00:23:44,000 Speaker 1: for a cash prize by making the specified design overnight. 288 00:23:44,490 --> 00:23:47,410 Speaker 1: A helicopter would fly over the field at dawn to 289 00:23:47,470 --> 00:23:51,850 Speaker 1: help the judges make their decision. The competition's organiser was 290 00:23:51,970 --> 00:23:57,410 Speaker 1: Rupert Sheldrake, a singular figure. On the one hand, Sheldrake 291 00:23:57,470 --> 00:24:02,010 Speaker 1: was a proper scientist, trained at Cambridge and Harvard. On 292 00:24:02,030 --> 00:24:06,730 Speaker 1: the other hand, for a scientist, Sheldrake's mind was unusually 293 00:24:06,950 --> 00:24:13,600 Speaker 1: open to unorthodox ideas. He studied parapsychology, for example. The 294 00:24:13,700 --> 00:24:18,120 Speaker 1: crop circle competition sounded like a properly scientific approach to 295 00:24:18,160 --> 00:24:23,270 Speaker 1: an unorthodox idea, but many were suspicious of Sheldrake's motives. 296 00:24:24,100 --> 00:24:29,410 Speaker 1: The design he gave the teams certainly looked challenging. Concentric rings, 297 00:24:29,810 --> 00:24:35,010 Speaker 1: a triangle, various lines. And again, it was supposed to 298 00:24:35,050 --> 00:24:38,110 Speaker 1: be hard. The whole point was to find out if 299 00:24:38,170 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 1: there was any aspect of crop circles that humans couldn't make. 300 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:47,660 Speaker 1: When Sheldrake invited a group called the Wessex Skeptics to 301 00:24:47,740 --> 00:24:52,260 Speaker 1: nominate a judge, they refused. They feared the competition would 302 00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:57,240 Speaker 1: be a tawdry public relations exercise designed to discredit the 303 00:24:57,300 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 1: hoaxing hypothesis. The sceptical journalist Matt Ridley shared their fears. 304 00:25:03,420 --> 00:25:06,940 Speaker 1: He says, the whole competition was aimed to prove that 305 00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:11,500 Speaker 1: it was impossible to make complex changes by hand. Still, 306 00:25:12,140 --> 00:25:17,420 Speaker 1: Ridley decided to enter the competition. At 10pm, the teams 307 00:25:17,500 --> 00:25:20,440 Speaker 1: made their way to the field. Ridley and his sister, 308 00:25:21,060 --> 00:25:25,970 Speaker 1: some Cambridge undergraduates, three young engineers from a helicopter company. 309 00:25:26,550 --> 00:25:30,530 Speaker 1: The owners of Yeti, the Pyrenean mountain dog, harnessed him 310 00:25:30,630 --> 00:25:33,890 Speaker 1: to a wooden plank. They'd trained him to pull it 311 00:25:33,970 --> 00:25:38,290 Speaker 1: through the crops, but Yeti had other ideas. He settled 312 00:25:38,310 --> 00:25:44,400 Speaker 1: down in the wheat and fell asleep. At three o'clock 313 00:25:44,440 --> 00:25:48,610 Speaker 1: in the morning, time was up. When the helicopter flew 314 00:25:48,690 --> 00:25:51,450 Speaker 1: at dawn, one of the plots in the field did 315 00:25:51,530 --> 00:25:55,020 Speaker 1: not look like the others. Matt Ridley had decided not 316 00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 1: to dignify the competition by taking it seriously. He hadn't 317 00:25:59,060 --> 00:26:03,180 Speaker 1: even attempted to follow Sheldrake's design. Instead, he'd carved his 318 00:26:03,340 --> 00:26:06,860 Speaker 1: own cryptic message into the field, a way of poking fun. 319 00:26:07,540 --> 00:26:10,060 Speaker 1: It was obvious to Ridley that crop circles were a 320 00:26:10,110 --> 00:26:13,570 Speaker 1: human thing. It was gullible even to ask the question. 321 00:26:14,390 --> 00:26:18,410 Speaker 1: But the question had been asked. and the other 11 322 00:26:18,410 --> 00:26:24,210 Speaker 1: teams had taken it seriously. They'd tried to make Sheldrake's design, 323 00:26:25,050 --> 00:26:32,640 Speaker 1: and they'd done superbly. The aerial photos show plot after 324 00:26:32,740 --> 00:26:38,720 Speaker 1: plot of impressively clean lines, sharp edges and neatly flattened crops. 325 00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:42,700 Speaker 1: The challenging, complex design had turned out to be not 326 00:26:42,820 --> 00:26:47,340 Speaker 1: only possible for humans to make, but apparently quite straightforward. 327 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,820 Speaker 1: The judges had a tough task. In second place, the 328 00:26:52,870 --> 00:26:58,470 Speaker 1: young American grad student, working alone. His name was Jim Schnabel, 329 00:26:58,890 --> 00:27:03,210 Speaker 1: and he was soon to publish his book, Round in Circles. 330 00:27:04,190 --> 00:27:07,970 Speaker 1: The winner? The three young engineers from the helicopter company. 331 00:27:09,580 --> 00:27:12,710 Speaker 1: Before they could pocket their cash prize... They had to 332 00:27:12,850 --> 00:27:16,810 Speaker 1: recreate the design in daylight so everyone could see how 333 00:27:16,850 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 1: they'd done it. It was, admits Sheldrake, fascinating. They used 334 00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:26,420 Speaker 1: two sets of lightweight stepladders and a plank to move 335 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,420 Speaker 1: from one part of the field to another without leaving 336 00:27:29,460 --> 00:27:34,290 Speaker 1: a trail. They used a telescopic PVC pipe device which 337 00:27:34,530 --> 00:27:37,850 Speaker 1: pivoted out from a stepladder to measure the concentric wings. 338 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,500 Speaker 1: They flattened the crops with a roller made from more 339 00:27:41,540 --> 00:27:48,710 Speaker 1: PVC pipe, with a rope through it. Rupert Sheldrake was 340 00:27:48,850 --> 00:27:53,090 Speaker 1: careful to keep his mind open. The fact that it 341 00:27:53,330 --> 00:27:57,190 Speaker 1: is possible to forge a £ 50 note does not prove 342 00:27:57,250 --> 00:28:04,490 Speaker 1: that all £ 50 notes are forgeries. Logically, of course, quite true. Still, 343 00:28:04,750 --> 00:28:08,660 Speaker 1: to his credit... Sheldrake didn't shy away from what he'd found. 344 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:14,910 Speaker 1: The experiment was conclusive, he wrote. Humans could indeed make 345 00:28:15,310 --> 00:28:20,950 Speaker 1: all the features of state-of-the-art crop formations at that time. So, 346 00:28:21,830 --> 00:28:25,700 Speaker 1: there was no mystery, really. No need to postulate any 347 00:28:25,780 --> 00:28:34,290 Speaker 1: role for aliens. But belief perseverance is powerful. Remember the 348 00:28:34,390 --> 00:28:40,660 Speaker 1: psychologist Craig Anderson's experiment about the risk-taking firefighters? His students 349 00:28:40,900 --> 00:28:44,120 Speaker 1: persevered in their beliefs, even knowing that the evidence on 350 00:28:44,180 --> 00:28:49,070 Speaker 1: which they'd built those beliefs was worthless. Anderson points out 351 00:28:49,130 --> 00:28:54,450 Speaker 1: that belief perseverance isn't just an academic curiosity. It contributes 352 00:28:54,550 --> 00:28:59,660 Speaker 1: to real problems, such as vaccine hesitancy. For example, in 353 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:04,120 Speaker 1: the 1990s, One academic study presented evidence that a particular 354 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:09,540 Speaker 1: vaccine could cause autism. The study was later completely discredited, 355 00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:13,510 Speaker 1: but for some people, the belief that vaccines might cause 356 00:29:13,570 --> 00:29:21,050 Speaker 1: autism has persisted. Craig Anderson also conducted a follow-up experiment. 357 00:29:21,650 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 1: He asked some students merely to analyse the results of 358 00:29:25,640 --> 00:29:32,450 Speaker 1: the firefighters' personality tests, and others... to suggest explanations. For example, 359 00:29:32,750 --> 00:29:37,420 Speaker 1: risk-takers make better firefighters because they're more likely to be brave. 360 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: When the students wrote down reasoning, their beliefs were even 361 00:29:42,320 --> 00:29:46,480 Speaker 1: more likely to stay standing after the supporting evidence was 362 00:29:46,580 --> 00:29:54,870 Speaker 1: taken away. Pat Delgado and Colin Andrews hadn't just written 363 00:29:54,950 --> 00:29:58,870 Speaker 1: down their reasoning, they'd published a best-selling book on it. 364 00:29:59,670 --> 00:30:04,230 Speaker 1: Pat wrote a follow-up book in which he explains his unfortunate... 365 00:30:04,150 --> 00:30:08,790 Speaker 1: No human could have done this... in Doug and Dave's circle. 366 00:30:09,470 --> 00:30:12,770 Speaker 1: You see, that was just his initial impression, on a 367 00:30:12,930 --> 00:30:16,420 Speaker 1: casual walkthrough. He'd not yet had a chance to carry 368 00:30:16,510 --> 00:30:21,140 Speaker 1: out the usual thorough tests. He later conducted those tests, 369 00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:25,040 Speaker 1: such as pushing probes into the soil and connecting them 370 00:30:25,100 --> 00:30:29,660 Speaker 1: to a tape recorder to check for electromagnetic noises. A 371 00:30:29,860 --> 00:30:39,270 Speaker 1: genuine circle would generate distinctive noise. This one did not. Investigations, 372 00:30:39,730 --> 00:30:44,280 Speaker 1: Pat adds darkly, revealed that Doug and Dave were but 373 00:30:44,420 --> 00:30:48,860 Speaker 1: pawns in a plan to discredit the crop circle phenomenon, 374 00:30:49,420 --> 00:30:56,060 Speaker 1: a well-orchestrated misinformation campaign involving official departments and at least 375 00:30:56,320 --> 00:31:02,580 Speaker 1: two other countries. Pat recounts more strange incidents with crop circles. 376 00:31:02,980 --> 00:31:06,350 Speaker 1: such as when 25 sheep were found in a different 377 00:31:06,470 --> 00:31:08,770 Speaker 1: field from the one they were in the night before, 378 00:31:09,210 --> 00:31:12,590 Speaker 1: frightened and very nervous as if something had scared them. 379 00:31:14,270 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 1: What could account for the crop circle and the frightened sheep? 380 00:31:19,380 --> 00:31:24,080 Speaker 1: The Ministry of Agriculture, Pat writes, refused to comment on 381 00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:28,750 Speaker 1: the possibility of an invasion by beings from another world. 382 00:31:30,940 --> 00:31:35,540 Speaker 1: Colin Andrews wrote another book too. It's called Crop Circles, 383 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:40,850 Speaker 1: Signs of Contact. He looks back on the 1980s, how 384 00:31:40,910 --> 00:31:44,650 Speaker 1: his whole world changed when he became interested in crop circles. 385 00:31:45,390 --> 00:31:51,830 Speaker 1: New friends, constant travel, new expenses. My financial situation, he writes, 386 00:31:52,530 --> 00:31:59,640 Speaker 1: went from secure to drastically insecure. Colin's marriage broke down. 387 00:32:00,530 --> 00:32:04,510 Speaker 1: One imagines that 14 days in a row of alarms 388 00:32:04,570 --> 00:32:10,730 Speaker 1: going off at 4.15am can't have helped. On top of 389 00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:15,540 Speaker 1: that personal trauma, Colin writes, he realised that many of 390 00:32:15,580 --> 00:32:20,400 Speaker 1: his friends were embarrassed by him. Many co-workers at the 391 00:32:20,440 --> 00:32:25,670 Speaker 1: local authority were so mortified by his television appearances discussing 392 00:32:25,690 --> 00:32:29,180 Speaker 1: his research that they made it quite clear they wanted 393 00:32:29,400 --> 00:32:34,380 Speaker 1: nothing to do with him. With hindsight, he sees the problem. 394 00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:39,370 Speaker 1: One of the biggest mistakes I made was mentioning publicly 395 00:32:39,450 --> 00:32:45,970 Speaker 1: the possibility of crop circles being formed by extraterrestrial intelligences. 396 00:32:47,590 --> 00:32:50,950 Speaker 1: It allowed the media to paint me as an eccentric. 397 00:32:51,910 --> 00:32:57,320 Speaker 1: People weren't ready. I now know that I offered cutting-edge 398 00:32:57,420 --> 00:33:03,980 Speaker 1: ideas too soon. Still, those ideas did find enough of 399 00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:08,560 Speaker 1: an audience for his book Circular Evidence to become a bestseller. 400 00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 1: Colin earned enough from the royalties to quit his confining 401 00:33:13,260 --> 00:33:16,620 Speaker 1: job in local government and start jetting off to those 402 00:33:16,680 --> 00:33:21,080 Speaker 1: international meet-ups. At a conference on UFOs in the United 403 00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:26,280 Speaker 1: States in 1991... Colin found love again. He moved to 404 00:33:26,340 --> 00:33:30,220 Speaker 1: Connecticut to start a new life with his second wife. 405 00:33:34,580 --> 00:33:39,300 Speaker 1: Crop circles continued to appear throughout the 1990s with ever 406 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:44,370 Speaker 1: more ambitious designs. Quite a few people, it seemed, shared 407 00:33:44,540 --> 00:33:48,190 Speaker 1: Doug and Dave's mischievous delight in doing something daft and 408 00:33:48,230 --> 00:33:52,830 Speaker 1: illicit in the countryside by the light of the summer moon. Still, 409 00:33:53,430 --> 00:33:58,590 Speaker 1: Colin remained convinced that not all crop circles were human-made. 410 00:33:59,170 --> 00:34:03,810 Speaker 1: He writes, Hoaxers could not create counterfeit crop circles if 411 00:34:03,860 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 1: they did not have real ones to copy. The argument 412 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:13,920 Speaker 1: sounds plausible until you realise that Colin is smuggling his 413 00:34:13,980 --> 00:34:19,850 Speaker 1: conclusion into his premise. Human-made crop circles are counterfeit only 414 00:34:19,930 --> 00:34:23,980 Speaker 1: if real ones exist that aren't human-made. It's a bit 415 00:34:24,020 --> 00:34:28,630 Speaker 1: like saying hoaxers can make counterfeit sandcastles only because they 416 00:34:28,670 --> 00:34:34,170 Speaker 1: have real sandcastles to copy. It is alternatively conceivable that 417 00:34:34,230 --> 00:34:45,150 Speaker 1: humans invented sandcastles themselves. In 1999, Collins secured philanthropic funding 418 00:34:45,230 --> 00:34:48,980 Speaker 1: for a major two-year study of crop circles in England. 419 00:34:49,700 --> 00:34:52,380 Speaker 1: He wanted to know how many of these crop circles 420 00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:57,780 Speaker 1: were counterfeit and how many were real. Colin hired private 421 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:02,560 Speaker 1: detectives and undercover operatives to infiltrate groups of crop circle 422 00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:06,360 Speaker 1: makers and learn their techniques. He made a list of 423 00:35:06,540 --> 00:35:11,000 Speaker 1: telltale signs of human-made crop circles, such as holes in 424 00:35:11,020 --> 00:35:14,440 Speaker 1: the ground where marker pegs had been driven in and removed. 425 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:20,050 Speaker 1: Colin analysed aerial photos. and took readings with a magnetometer. 426 00:35:20,770 --> 00:35:26,020 Speaker 1: In August 2000, he announced his results. 80% of crop 427 00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:29,860 Speaker 1: circles made in England over the last two years had 428 00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:34,830 Speaker 1: been made by humans. But in the remaining 20%, he 429 00:35:34,850 --> 00:35:41,130 Speaker 1: could find no evidence of human involvement at all. Colin 430 00:35:41,170 --> 00:35:44,420 Speaker 1: was pleased with this finding. He assumed that everyone would 431 00:35:44,500 --> 00:35:48,980 Speaker 1: focus on the still mysterious 20%, where aliens might yet 432 00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:54,040 Speaker 1: be involved. But no. Instead, Colin began to get hate 433 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 1: mail from crop circle enthusiasts who focused on the 80%. 434 00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:02,500 Speaker 1: How dare he say that most crop circles weren't genuine? 435 00:36:02,830 --> 00:36:06,390 Speaker 1: He must be a disinformer, in the pay of the CIA, 436 00:36:06,770 --> 00:36:11,940 Speaker 1: or maybe bought off by the Rockefellers. Colin writes... I 437 00:36:11,980 --> 00:36:14,720 Speaker 1: was stunned by the vitriol that was hurled my way, 438 00:36:15,500 --> 00:36:18,540 Speaker 1: and I learned a great deal about people during this experience. 439 00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:24,730 Speaker 1: What Colin learned, at least about other people, is how 440 00:36:24,870 --> 00:36:30,590 Speaker 1: powerful belief perseverance can be. It staggers me, he writes, 441 00:36:31,630 --> 00:36:34,530 Speaker 1: to what extent people will go to hang on to 442 00:36:34,570 --> 00:36:39,980 Speaker 1: their beliefs, even when they're presented with evidence of the truth. 443 00:36:50,850 --> 00:36:53,320 Speaker 1: For a full list of our sources, see the show 444 00:36:53,380 --> 00:37:01,220 Speaker 1: notes at timharford.com. Cautionary Tales is written by me, Tim Harford, 445 00:37:01,460 --> 00:37:05,640 Speaker 1: with Andrew Wright, Alice Fiennes and Ryan Dilley. It's produced 446 00:37:05,700 --> 00:37:09,530 Speaker 1: by Georgia Mills and Marilyn Rust. The sound design and 447 00:37:09,570 --> 00:37:14,150 Speaker 1: original music are the work of Pascal Wise. Ben-Nadav Hafri 448 00:37:14,430 --> 00:37:17,930 Speaker 1: edited the scripts. The show also wouldn't have been possible 449 00:37:17,970 --> 00:37:22,360 Speaker 1: without the work of Jacob Weisberg, Greta Cohen Corrin Gileard-Fisher, 450 00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:29,030 Speaker 1: Eric Sandler, Christina Sullivan, Keira Posey, and Owen Miller. Cautionary 451 00:37:29,070 --> 00:37:33,050 Speaker 1: Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. If you like 452 00:37:33,070 --> 00:37:36,190 Speaker 1: the show... please remember to share, rate, and review. It 453 00:37:36,230 --> 00:37:38,930 Speaker 1: really does make a difference to us. And if you 454 00:37:38,950 --> 00:37:42,490 Speaker 1: want to hear it ad-free and receive a bonus audio episode, 455 00:37:42,590 --> 00:37:46,880 Speaker 1: video episode, and members-only newsletter every month, why not join 456 00:37:46,980 --> 00:37:52,880 Speaker 1: the Cautionary Club? To sign up, head to patreon.com slash cautionaryclub. 457 00:37:53,140 --> 00:38:12,910 Speaker 1: That's patreon, p-a-t-r-e-o-n dot com slash cautionaryclub. Thank you.