1
00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,360
Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome to the latest episode from the

2
00:00:03,400 --> 00:00:06,920
Speaker 1: midweek edition of the coin Bureau podcast. Every week, I

3
00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:09,879
Speaker 1: pick out two of my favorite videos from coin Bureau's

4
00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,080
Speaker 1: YouTube channel to present to you in podcast form. The

5
00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:16,000
Speaker 1: audio you're about to hear is from those videos I've

6
00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,080
Speaker 1: chosen this week, and I hope you enjoy listening. So

7
00:00:19,200 --> 00:00:22,200
Speaker 1: today you'll hear our videos on the housing bubbles that

8
00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,160
Speaker 1: are threatening to burst in a number of countries, and

9
00:00:25,360 --> 00:00:28,280
Speaker 1: the intriguing tale of what happened when a meme I

10
00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:33,320
Speaker 1: posted on Instagram about central bank digital currencies got fact checked.

11
00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:37,320
Speaker 1: As inflation continues to wreak havoc across global asset markets

12
00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:40,879
Speaker 1: and central banks hike interest rates in response, housing markets

13
00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,520
Speaker 1: in a number of countries are now coming under strain.

14
00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:48,040
Speaker 1: The pandemic and its attendant lockdowns supercharged home prices in

15
00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,919
Speaker 1: many countries, but this conceals the fact that they had

16
00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:54,520
Speaker 1: been climbing for a long time before COVID nineteen appeared.

17
00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:56,840
Speaker 1: The pull of a place of one's own is a

18
00:00:56,880 --> 00:00:59,920
Speaker 1: strong one in many places, but global macro e can

19
00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:03,240
Speaker 1: comics are making it increasingly difficult for people to turn

20
00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:07,039
Speaker 1: their dreams into reality. As interest rates rise, so to

21
00:01:07,360 --> 00:01:10,399
Speaker 1: do the costs of mortgages while increases in the cost

22
00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:13,319
Speaker 1: of living I mean people have less and less to

23
00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:17,120
Speaker 1: save for a deposit. In places like the USA, Canada,

24
00:01:17,240 --> 00:01:20,920
Speaker 1: and the UK, housing prices are now expected to fall

25
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:24,080
Speaker 1: in the coming months, and this could have dire consequences

26
00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,440
Speaker 1: for the economies of these countries. Find out why in

27
00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:31,240
Speaker 1: the first part of today's episode Next up. Not long ago,

28
00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:34,800
Speaker 1: I posted a meme on Instagram which was critical of

29
00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:39,880
Speaker 1: central bank digital currencies or CBDCs. In a nutshell, it

30
00:01:40,040 --> 00:01:44,319
Speaker 1: highlighted all the negative consequences of CBDCs while also pointing

31
00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:48,200
Speaker 1: out that many, perhaps most people would only focus on

32
00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:52,480
Speaker 1: their perceived convenience. Well. To my surprise, the post was

33
00:01:52,560 --> 00:01:56,600
Speaker 1: fact checked by Instagram, so I decided to analyze the

34
00:01:56,640 --> 00:02:00,000
Speaker 1: contents of the meme and show why they are factually correct,

35
00:02:00,560 --> 00:02:03,680
Speaker 1: look into why it was fact checked, and examine what

36
00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,560
Speaker 1: the fact checkers said. It was an interesting look into

37
00:02:06,640 --> 00:02:09,079
Speaker 1: both c b d c s and the whole concept

38
00:02:09,120 --> 00:02:12,600
Speaker 1: of fact checking too, So have a listen and enjoy.

39
00:02:13,160 --> 00:02:15,600
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to today's episode, and there'll be more

40
00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,280
Speaker 1: coming your way soon. And if you want even more

41
00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:20,760
Speaker 1: content from Coin Bureau, be sure to subscribe to our

42
00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:44,160
Speaker 1: YouTube channel and visit us on social media too. The

43
00:02:44,280 --> 00:02:49,240
Speaker 1: long anticipated housing market crash may be upon US. Prices

44
00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:52,400
Speaker 1: and sales in some of the world's hottest property markets

45
00:02:52,720 --> 00:02:56,920
Speaker 1: are beginning to fall. Mortgage rates are at multi year highs,

46
00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,959
Speaker 1: and market analysts are wondering whether this has any power

47
00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:04,400
Speaker 1: arallels with two thousand and eight. So where are we

48
00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,480
Speaker 1: going and what should you be looking out for? Well,

49
00:03:07,560 --> 00:03:11,840
Speaker 1: that's exactly what I'll be covering today, So don't go anywhere.

50
00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,600
Speaker 1: Given that it's the largest property market in the world,

51
00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,440
Speaker 1: let's start off with the good old U S of A.

52
00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:24,000
Speaker 1: It's pretty clear that America's pandemic price boom is long over.

53
00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:29,120
Speaker 1: For example, according to the SNP Case Shiller Index for

54
00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:33,560
Speaker 1: the twenty largest U S cities, prices fell one pree

55
00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,800
Speaker 1: on a month on month basis in August. This was

56
00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:42,160
Speaker 1: below expectations, and it was the largest fall since March

57
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:45,960
Speaker 1: of two thousand and nine. Not only that, but home

58
00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:50,560
Speaker 1: sales are also on the decline. New home sales decreased

59
00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:55,120
Speaker 1: ten point nine to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of

60
00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:59,520
Speaker 1: six hundred and three thousand units in September. This is

61
00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:02,960
Speaker 1: down from six hundred and seventy seven thousand in August.

62
00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,680
Speaker 1: There are many factors that have been driving this slowdown,

63
00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:09,640
Speaker 1: but perhaps one of the biggest appears to be the

64
00:04:09,720 --> 00:04:13,160
Speaker 1: high cost of buying a home, not in terms of

65
00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:16,920
Speaker 1: actual home prices themselves, but in terms of the cost

66
00:04:16,960 --> 00:04:20,320
Speaker 1: of getting a mortgage on those homes. That's because the

67
00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:23,520
Speaker 1: rate on a thirty year mortgage, at over seven percent,

68
00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,280
Speaker 1: is the highest it's been in twenty years. What's even

69
00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,320
Speaker 1: crazier than this, however, is the fact that the monthly

70
00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,719
Speaker 1: mortgage on a median priced home with a twenty percent

71
00:04:33,839 --> 00:04:37,360
Speaker 1: down payment went from thirteen hundred dollars a year ago

72
00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:42,280
Speaker 1: to over twenty three dollars. Now, that's an eight percent

73
00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:46,119
Speaker 1: increase in payments to give you an idea of how

74
00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:50,200
Speaker 1: unaffordable this is. On an annual basis, this equates to

75
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:55,760
Speaker 1: about forty of the median pre tax household income according

76
00:04:55,960 --> 00:04:59,080
Speaker 1: to this i n G report. To put that into context,

77
00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:02,360
Speaker 1: this was about twenty six percent in the fourth quarter

78
00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,680
Speaker 1: of ten and thirty seven percent at the peak of

79
00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:09,800
Speaker 1: the two thousand and six housing market boom. This has

80
00:05:09,839 --> 00:05:13,880
Speaker 1: forced some buyers to consider adjustable rate mortgages as well

81
00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:17,120
Speaker 1: as loans that have lower rates for the first two

82
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:21,720
Speaker 1: to three years, called one to buy downs. Needless to say,

83
00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,280
Speaker 1: the exorbitant cost of taking out these mortgages means that

84
00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:29,200
Speaker 1: the demand for them appears to be cratering. Demand is

85
00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:31,840
Speaker 1: half what it used to be a year ago, and

86
00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:37,799
Speaker 1: it is at its lowest level since These higher mortgage

87
00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:41,400
Speaker 1: rates are of course due to the monetary policies of Jerome,

88
00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:45,640
Speaker 1: Powel and Co. As the Federal Reserve aggressively increases interest rates.

89
00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,040
Speaker 1: It's been one of the fastest periods of rate hiking

90
00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:52,080
Speaker 1: in recent history. As you can see in this chart

91
00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:56,080
Speaker 1: over here. In each of its last three meetings, the

92
00:05:56,200 --> 00:06:00,880
Speaker 1: Fed has increased its funds rate by seventy five basis points.

93
00:06:01,640 --> 00:06:04,120
Speaker 1: It's not as if Jerome and Co. Are really that

94
00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,960
Speaker 1: concerned about a correction either. In a press conference back

95
00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:11,560
Speaker 1: in September, Jerome stated, quote, we probably in the housing

96
00:06:11,600 --> 00:06:15,640
Speaker 1: market have to go through a correction, and quote the

97
00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:19,720
Speaker 1: deceleration in housing prices that we're seeing should help bring

98
00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:23,760
Speaker 1: prices more closely in line with rents and other housing

99
00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:28,240
Speaker 1: market fundamentals. And that's a good thing. Now. Whether you

100
00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,400
Speaker 1: agree with him or not, the fact of the matter

101
00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:34,440
Speaker 1: is that the Fed is not slowing those hikes anytime soon,

102
00:06:34,520 --> 00:06:37,800
Speaker 1: and the overwhelming consensus is that we will see another

103
00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:42,680
Speaker 1: seventy five bibs At the meeting tomorrow. The FEDS fundrate

104
00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:46,040
Speaker 1: is expected to peek at between four point five and

105
00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,640
Speaker 1: four point seven five. The last time rates were at

106
00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,240
Speaker 1: this level was between October and December of two thousand

107
00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:57,599
Speaker 1: and seven, the start of the Great Financial Crisis. It's

108
00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,240
Speaker 1: not only the fact that taking out a loan is

109
00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,719
Speaker 1: a lot more expensive. However, first time buyers may also

110
00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,239
Speaker 1: struggle to source the funds required for a down payment

111
00:07:07,360 --> 00:07:12,160
Speaker 1: on many properties. Surging inflation is destroying purchasing power and

112
00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:16,080
Speaker 1: making it a lot harder for many to save. Now.

113
00:07:16,160 --> 00:07:19,480
Speaker 1: That is all on the demand side, but we also

114
00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:23,800
Speaker 1: have some troubling statistics over on the supply side. For example,

115
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:28,600
Speaker 1: the National Association of home Builders's sentiment index has fallen

116
00:07:28,840 --> 00:07:32,680
Speaker 1: for ten straight months. The slowdown in sales at a

117
00:07:32,720 --> 00:07:36,520
Speaker 1: time of widespread construction means that the inventory of new

118
00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,000
Speaker 1: homes is near all time highs. In this chart over here,

119
00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,360
Speaker 1: you can see the months housing supply i e. The

120
00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:47,240
Speaker 1: months required to clear the housing infantry. This is at

121
00:07:47,280 --> 00:07:52,120
Speaker 1: the highest level it's been since. So how low could

122
00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:56,480
Speaker 1: house prices fall in the US. Well, let's see what

123
00:07:56,600 --> 00:08:00,640
Speaker 1: analysts on Wall Street are saying. At the lower end

124
00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,720
Speaker 1: of the estimates, we have Morgan Stanley who are now

125
00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,720
Speaker 1: expecting house prices to fall by about seven percent next year.

126
00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,320
Speaker 1: While that may indeed be less than the twenty seven

127
00:08:11,320 --> 00:08:13,440
Speaker 1: percent we saw in the peak to trough of the

128
00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:16,320
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight housing crash, it is still a

129
00:08:16,480 --> 00:08:19,520
Speaker 1: sizeable fall and would be one of the largest ones

130
00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:24,120
Speaker 1: since the Great Depression. According to Morgan Stanley's analysts quote,

131
00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:28,480
Speaker 1: if we assume a seven percent mortgage rate, affordability looks

132
00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:33,319
Speaker 1: materially worse than today, and the pace of its deceleration

133
00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:37,199
Speaker 1: has already more than doubled compared to almost any time

134
00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:41,360
Speaker 1: in history. They do note, however, that even with this

135
00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,760
Speaker 1: price decline of seven percent, house prices would still be

136
00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,680
Speaker 1: about thirty two percent higher than they were back in

137
00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:51,760
Speaker 1: March of Morgan Stanley has a bull and a bear

138
00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,320
Speaker 1: case as well. This all depends on how interest rates

139
00:08:55,360 --> 00:08:58,880
Speaker 1: progress over the next few months. For example, in their

140
00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:02,040
Speaker 1: bull case, they assume that interest rates start coming back

141
00:09:02,080 --> 00:09:05,960
Speaker 1: down next year. If this were to happen, they assume

142
00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:10,680
Speaker 1: a price increase of five. However, if the US falls

143
00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:14,280
Speaker 1: into recession next year, then we're looking at potential falls

144
00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:18,400
Speaker 1: of ten percent or more. According to the analysts quote,

145
00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:22,959
Speaker 1: affordability is already challenged, exposing would be homeowners to an

146
00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:26,720
Speaker 1: increasing rent environment that erodes their ability to save for

147
00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,440
Speaker 1: a down payment. If that were to be combined with

148
00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:34,520
Speaker 1: increasing unemployment, we could imagine a scenario in which existing

149
00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,880
Speaker 1: home sales continue to outpace the Great Financial Crisis to

150
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:43,880
Speaker 1: the down side. In other words, a worrying state of affairs.

151
00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:48,000
Speaker 1: Moving on, though, another bank that had a change in

152
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:51,160
Speaker 1: their view of the US housing market was Goldman Sachs.

153
00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:54,280
Speaker 1: Let's not forget that as recently as last month they

154
00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:59,000
Speaker 1: were predicting a modest one point eight percent rise in prices. Well,

155
00:09:59,480 --> 00:10:02,640
Speaker 1: they're current and estimates are for a fall of five

156
00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:07,679
Speaker 1: to ten quote. We view the risks to these estimates

157
00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,240
Speaker 1: as tilted to the downside because of a sharp deterioration

158
00:10:11,320 --> 00:10:15,200
Speaker 1: in our descriptive home price outlook scores and evidence of

159
00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:20,280
Speaker 1: strong mean reversion in regional data. Meanwhile, on the ratings

160
00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:24,480
Speaker 1: agency side, Moody's Analytics is predicting a drop off between

161
00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,600
Speaker 1: five and ten percent, although they don't seem to think

162
00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:30,040
Speaker 1: that we will see a two thousand and eight style

163
00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:35,040
Speaker 1: housing crash. Their chief economist Marks Andy stated that plain

164
00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:39,440
Speaker 1: vanilla lending, good mortgage underwriting, and low vacancy will be

165
00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:43,400
Speaker 1: enough to stave off the crash. However, as I noted earlier,

166
00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,200
Speaker 1: housing supply is at a high level, and even Zandy

167
00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,880
Speaker 1: admits that these factors aren't sufficient to stave off an

168
00:10:50,920 --> 00:10:56,600
Speaker 1: inevitable correction. Moody's analytics actually draws up a quarterly index

169
00:10:56,679 --> 00:11:00,480
Speaker 1: that looks at local fundamentals such as income levels, etcetera,

170
00:11:00,800 --> 00:11:05,000
Speaker 1: that helps determine whether house prices are over or undervalued

171
00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,199
Speaker 1: in the regions being examined. You can see what this

172
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:12,240
Speaker 1: regional index looks like over here in this Fortune article.

173
00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:16,640
Speaker 1: This shows the over and undervalued regions for Q two.

174
00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,319
Speaker 1: If we were to compare this to the index for

175
00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:23,400
Speaker 1: Q one, you can see the deterioration. I can't wait

176
00:11:23,440 --> 00:11:26,560
Speaker 1: to see what it looks like for Q three. Any

177
00:11:26,640 --> 00:11:30,280
Speaker 1: who in those housing markets that Moody's views as quote

178
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:35,080
Speaker 1: significantly overvalued housing prices should see declines of ten to

179
00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,760
Speaker 1: fifteen percent. However, if we do indeed hit a recession,

180
00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,199
Speaker 1: then these could even fall by twenty to twenty five.

181
00:11:43,240 --> 00:11:48,480
Speaker 1: That will hurt like heck anyway. Getting the perspective of

182
00:11:48,520 --> 00:11:51,960
Speaker 1: another ratings agency, Fitch Ratings, seems to think that we

183
00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:56,600
Speaker 1: could see prices fall by between ten and fifteen percent. Quote.

184
00:11:56,880 --> 00:12:01,480
Speaker 1: The likelihood of a severe downturn in US housing has increased. However,

185
00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:05,280
Speaker 1: our rating case scenario provides for a more moderate pullback

186
00:12:05,520 --> 00:12:09,280
Speaker 1: that includes a mid single digit decline in housing activity

187
00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:14,360
Speaker 1: in twenty three and further pressure in four now. One

188
00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,640
Speaker 1: final analyst with a prediction for housing prices next year

189
00:12:17,840 --> 00:12:22,319
Speaker 1: is Paul Shepherdson, the chief economist of Pantheon macro Economics.

190
00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:25,520
Speaker 1: He expects housing prices in the US to fall by

191
00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:29,560
Speaker 1: as much as twenty in twenty three. He said, quote,

192
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:33,680
Speaker 1: we expect home sales to keep falling until early next year.

193
00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,640
Speaker 1: By that point, sales will have fallen to the incompressible

194
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:40,920
Speaker 1: minimum level, where the only people moving home are those

195
00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:45,640
Speaker 1: with no choice due to job or family circumstances. Shepherdson

196
00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,760
Speaker 1: also thinks that the supply of homes available for sale

197
00:12:48,760 --> 00:12:51,960
Speaker 1: will shrink next year and that prices will have to

198
00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:57,200
Speaker 1: fall much more to restore equilibrium. So those are the

199
00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:01,280
Speaker 1: estimates for the US housing market, not exactly two thousand

200
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:06,400
Speaker 1: and eight level armageddon, but disconcerting nonetheless. But that is

201
00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:10,000
Speaker 1: only the US. Are there any other housing markets that

202
00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,680
Speaker 1: are at risk of two thousand and eight type collapses? Well,

203
00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:18,040
Speaker 1: there is one, and it's just north of the US border.

204
00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,240
Speaker 1: That's right. Canada's housing market appears to be one of

205
00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:26,319
Speaker 1: the biggest property bubbles in the world. In fact, according

206
00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:30,600
Speaker 1: to ubs is recent Global Real Estate Bubble Index, Toronto

207
00:13:30,920 --> 00:13:33,559
Speaker 1: is the city that scores the highest on the list.

208
00:13:34,440 --> 00:13:38,480
Speaker 1: Vancouver isn't too far behind at number six. You can

209
00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,840
Speaker 1: also see how this has progressed for the cities over

210
00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:46,320
Speaker 1: the years. Ever since, it's been an upward march from

211
00:13:46,400 --> 00:13:50,520
Speaker 1: overvalued to bubble risk territory. It's not as if this

212
00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:53,880
Speaker 1: is a new phenomenon either. There have long been many

213
00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:57,240
Speaker 1: analysts ringing the alarm bells about the risks facing the

214
00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:01,680
Speaker 1: Canadian housing market, and there are several factors which have

215
00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:06,440
Speaker 1: been driving demand in these cities. They include high immigration levels,

216
00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:11,320
Speaker 1: falling mortgage rates, and high investment demand. Now, the most

217
00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:16,640
Speaker 1: recent housing frenzy actually began back in and only accelerated

218
00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,640
Speaker 1: during the pandemic. Much like central banks in other countries

219
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:23,880
Speaker 1: around the world. The Bank of Canada dropped its benchmark

220
00:14:23,920 --> 00:14:27,400
Speaker 1: interest rate to near zero. This made it a lot

221
00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:31,280
Speaker 1: cheaper for people to take out mortgages and gave those

222
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,520
Speaker 1: first time buyers who had been waiting an opportunity to

223
00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 1: get on the housing ladder. During the pandemic, property prices

224
00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:42,720
Speaker 1: in Vancouver and Toronto accelerated to their highest levels in

225
00:14:42,920 --> 00:14:47,920
Speaker 1: five years, at fourteen percent and seventeen percent, respectively. This

226
00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:51,840
Speaker 1: drove housing affordability in these key metros to levels that

227
00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:55,360
Speaker 1: were last seen during the nine eighties real estate bubble.

228
00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,400
Speaker 1: In this RBC research note, for example, you can see

229
00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:04,120
Speaker 1: ownership costs as a percentage of household income. Houses are

230
00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,880
Speaker 1: much less affordable in Canada than they are in the US,

231
00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:11,080
Speaker 1: and if you speak to any Canadian you'll know how

232
00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 1: much of an issue housing affordability is. But beyond affordability concerns,

233
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:21,040
Speaker 1: there's also the risk posed by bad debts. Something that

234
00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,160
Speaker 1: is a lot more prevalent in Canada than in the

235
00:15:24,280 --> 00:15:28,800
Speaker 1: US is the use of variable or adjustable rate mortgages

236
00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,800
Speaker 1: or arms. These are essentially mortgages that lock in a

237
00:15:32,880 --> 00:15:36,280
Speaker 1: lower rate of interest for an initial fixed period, but

238
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:39,120
Speaker 1: will then adjust up to a market rate after a

239
00:15:39,160 --> 00:15:42,800
Speaker 1: certain number of years. In Canada, about a third of

240
00:15:42,920 --> 00:15:47,520
Speaker 1: all mortgages are variable rate. That's about three times the

241
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:50,560
Speaker 1: amount in the US, where the share of ARM activity

242
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,840
Speaker 1: is about eleven. Those borrowers that took out arms to

243
00:15:54,920 --> 00:15:59,080
Speaker 1: buy a home in Canada between May and July two

244
00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:03,600
Speaker 1: could sue and see their monthly mortgage payments start to skyrocket.

245
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,520
Speaker 1: That's because the Bank of Canada has been following the

246
00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:11,360
Speaker 1: FED in its aggressive rate hiking policy. What may have

247
00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,000
Speaker 1: seemed like a good mortgage deal when rates were near

248
00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:18,720
Speaker 1: zero percent could become exorbitantly expensive when they adjust up.

249
00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,440
Speaker 1: This has already started happening, and according to Royce Mendez,

250
00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:27,840
Speaker 1: managing director and head of macro strategy at djadon Quote,

251
00:16:28,360 --> 00:16:32,080
Speaker 1: banks are already sending out lessers to clients whose variable

252
00:16:32,160 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 1: rate mortgages owe more interest than their fixed monthly payment obligation.

253
00:16:37,560 --> 00:16:41,280
Speaker 1: And that's just the tip of the iceberg. As these

254
00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,720
Speaker 1: homeowners face higher mortgage payments, some of them may be

255
00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:47,920
Speaker 1: forced to make the ultimate decision and sell their homes.

256
00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,760
Speaker 1: This could only precipitate a broader price crash as people

257
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:54,520
Speaker 1: see the value of the equity in their homes plummet.

258
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,800
Speaker 1: It's a de leveraging cycle of lower prices, more sales

259
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:04,399
Speaker 1: and lower prices. Again, so those are homeowners, But you

260
00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 1: also have to consider the investors who are snapping up

261
00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:11,000
Speaker 1: this housing in the hope of making generous yields on

262
00:17:11,080 --> 00:17:14,080
Speaker 1: their properties. Well, as interest rates are going up, the

263
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,119
Speaker 1: cost of servicing their debts mortgages is going up to

264
00:17:18,800 --> 00:17:21,959
Speaker 1: This means that they have to rely on rising rental

265
00:17:22,080 --> 00:17:25,439
Speaker 1: rates to make up for the lost yield. While rental

266
00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 1: rates are still red hot, they could easily turn down

267
00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:31,480
Speaker 1: in much the same way as they're now doing in

268
00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:34,959
Speaker 1: the US. Now, if you were to combine all of

269
00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:38,199
Speaker 1: these factors, you can see why housing prices are on

270
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:41,439
Speaker 1: the decline. Here you can see the steep drop in

271
00:17:41,480 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 1: the price of an average home in the g T

272
00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:48,960
Speaker 1: A Greater Toronto area. Overall prices in Toronto are down

273
00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:54,159
Speaker 1: seventeen percent as sales plunge. Now, this is something that

274
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:57,840
Speaker 1: one of the Coin Bureau team members actually witnessed firsthand

275
00:17:57,880 --> 00:18:01,120
Speaker 1: when he visited his family in Canada a few weeks ago.

276
00:18:01,359 --> 00:18:06,000
Speaker 1: The number of for sales signs in his neighborhood was alarming. Now,

277
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:08,959
Speaker 1: this is of course anecdotal, evidence, but I would be

278
00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 1: interested to hear the experience of some of my other

279
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:15,320
Speaker 1: Canadian viewers, so let me know in the comments down below.

280
00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,960
Speaker 1: The point is that Canada, and especially Toronto and Vancouver

281
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:25,400
Speaker 1: are due for a pretty nasty and long overdue correction. Okay,

282
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,360
Speaker 1: on to our next hot housing market, and this one

283
00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:31,080
Speaker 1: is a little closer to home for me, the good

284
00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:36,120
Speaker 1: old United Kingdom. The UK housing market is also starting

285
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:40,040
Speaker 1: to face downward pressure. House prices fell by zero point

286
00:18:40,040 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 1: one in August and by the same amount in September.

287
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 1: This left the annual growth at nine which is the

288
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:52,280
Speaker 1: weakest it's been since January. What these figures suggest is

289
00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,760
Speaker 1: that the housing market was already cooling long before the

290
00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,560
Speaker 1: disastrous budget from Liz Trust and Code. For those not

291
00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:03,119
Speaker 1: fully clued up, the shortest serving prime minister in our

292
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,560
Speaker 1: history and her chancellor released a budget that would have

293
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:10,679
Speaker 1: made Iron rand All misty eyed. The only problem was

294
00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:13,320
Speaker 1: that they didn't think about how they could pay for

295
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:17,400
Speaker 1: it all, and it's sent the market into turmoil. I've

296
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:20,439
Speaker 1: done a separate video on this disastrous episode, which I

297
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 1: will leave linked to below not for the faint hearted.

298
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 1: If you watch that video, you'll know that one of

299
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:31,240
Speaker 1: the side effects of that budget was that UK government

300
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 1: bond yields went soaring. These are the interest rates that

301
00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:39,840
Speaker 1: mortgage providers used to price their fixed rate offerings. Therefore,

302
00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 1: in the wake of that chaotic budget, these mortgage products

303
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 1: were left in turmoil. Buyers were scrambling to see whether

304
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:51,600
Speaker 1: they could secure mortgages before their prices reset. In the

305
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:55,680
Speaker 1: midst of the chaos, banks and building societies withdrew around

306
00:19:55,800 --> 00:20:00,159
Speaker 1: sevre mortgage products in the space of a week. Now,

307
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:03,159
Speaker 1: while the mayhem appears to have calmed down since the

308
00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,480
Speaker 1: budget was pulled and a new PM installed, the mortgage

309
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 1: rates themselves have been slow to adjust back down. For example,

310
00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,880
Speaker 1: although interest rate swaps have fallen between one point three

311
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 1: and one point four, average rates on two and five

312
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:23,200
Speaker 1: year fixed rate mortgages have only fallen zero point one six.

313
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:28,200
Speaker 1: You can see what that looks like over here. Quite simply,

314
00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:32,320
Speaker 1: lenders are not passing on the lower interest rates to

315
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:36,440
Speaker 1: those taking out the mortgages. These higher mortgage rates are

316
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 1: causing a great deal of uncertainty for homeowners and prospective

317
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:45,040
Speaker 1: buyers in the UK. This is especially the case for

318
00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 1: those who took out fixed rate mortgages Now this may

319
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:53,880
Speaker 1: sound counterintuitive, but in the UK fixed rate is more

320
00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 1: akin to adjustable rate in the United States, i e.

321
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:01,160
Speaker 1: There is a fixed term that is for a limited

322
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:04,560
Speaker 1: period of time, usually two to five years, after which

323
00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:08,000
Speaker 1: they will adjust up. Think of it as in the

324
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:11,280
Speaker 1: same way our public schools are in fact fee paying

325
00:21:11,359 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 1: and therefore nothing of the sort. Makes you wonder how

326
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 1: we ever ruled over a third of the globe, doesn't it? Anyway?

327
00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 1: For those who took out these loans in the period

328
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 1: when mortgage rates were low, the costs of servicing them

329
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 1: are suddenly looking much higher. Over here you can see

330
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:31,880
Speaker 1: what that looks like. In London, for example, mortgage payments

331
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:35,440
Speaker 1: make up over fifty percent of first time buyers take

332
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 1: home pay. Now, this is something that I myself and

333
00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:42,160
Speaker 1: worrying about with my mortgage in the UK, as it's

334
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,919
Speaker 1: coming up for refinancing in the next couple of years.

335
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 1: That's because I know that interest rates are only going

336
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 1: in one direction up. The Bank of England is also

337
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:57,720
Speaker 1: widely expected to raise interest rates by seventy five basis

338
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 1: points this Thursday. That's the largest hike by the BOE

339
00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 1: since nine Beyond that, interest rate futures currently predict that

340
00:22:08,080 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 1: the b o E rate is likely to tap out

341
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,320
Speaker 1: at almost five percent next year. That's all the more

342
00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:18,119
Speaker 1: pain for borrowers already on the edge. If we were

343
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:21,159
Speaker 1: to add this to the pressures of inflation and writing

344
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 1: energy costs. This is all a bit too much to

345
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 1: bear for the average UK homeowner. Some may decide to

346
00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: sell and this will of course have a negative impact

347
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 1: on prices. As a result, analysts are predicting steep falls

348
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 1: in UK house prices next year. For example, Credit Suee

349
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 1: analysts are predicting a fall of between ten and fifteen percent. Meanwhile,

350
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:49,920
Speaker 1: Andrew Wishart, senior property economist at Capital Economics, also predicts

351
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:54,119
Speaker 1: similar falls in prices. Quote the rise in market interest

352
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 1: rates that has already happened will push up mortgage rates

353
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 1: to at least six percent and reduce the size of

354
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 1: loans that lenders can offer and Quote, the resulting drop

355
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: in buying power makes a significant drop in house prices inevitable. Ouch. Okay,

356
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,520
Speaker 1: time for a few of my closing thoughts. It's clear

357
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,959
Speaker 1: that the global housing market is heading for some turbulence.

358
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: E's the era of pandemic fuel cheap credit is coming

359
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,080
Speaker 1: to an end, and that means a reckoning for those

360
00:23:26,280 --> 00:23:29,680
Speaker 1: trying to secure a mortgage. All eyes are on the

361
00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,000
Speaker 1: US housing market as a number of the hottest metros

362
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:36,720
Speaker 1: start to cool. Housing supply is on the rise and

363
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:40,720
Speaker 1: prices are on the decline. While a two thousand and

364
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,760
Speaker 1: eight style housing crash is unlikely, analysts are predicting pretty

365
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,720
Speaker 1: nasty falls which are likely to put a massive dent

366
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:52,280
Speaker 1: in consumer confidence. Perhaps this is what Jerome Powell always

367
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,800
Speaker 1: intended when he wanted to quote bring housing prices back

368
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: in line with fundamentals. But it's a bitter pill to

369
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,879
Speaker 1: swallow for all those who have a great deal of

370
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 1: their wealth tied up in their homes. However, such worries

371
00:24:06,440 --> 00:24:11,000
Speaker 1: are perhaps even more acute for Canadian homeowners, as concerns

372
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:15,280
Speaker 1: about a massive correction ripple through the air waves. While

373
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 1: this has been a long time coming, it appears as

374
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,560
Speaker 1: if the dominoes are beginning to fall. This could be

375
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 1: Canada's version of the two thousand and eight housing collapse

376
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: in the US, at least according to the pundits. If

377
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:33,359
Speaker 1: that is the case, it could do significant damage to

378
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 1: the country's GDP, given that so much of household wealth

379
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: is again tied up in housing. That said, it could

380
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 1: prove a silver lining for those Canadians who have given

381
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,000
Speaker 1: up on the dream of owning a home. Indeed, many

382
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: younger people in the country are secretly hoping for a correction,

383
00:24:52,359 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 1: anything for them to be able to eventually afford a

384
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 1: place to call their own. When it comes to my

385
00:24:58,359 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 1: native UK, things aren't looking two pretty there either. While

386
00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: the housing market in Britain is slightly more resilient than

387
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 1: those in North America, it's the overall economic picture that

388
00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 1: has me most worried. Inflation is over ten per and

389
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,560
Speaker 1: the recent snaffoo with the budget has thrown the country's

390
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 1: finances into disarray. The cost of living is only likely

391
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,760
Speaker 1: to get higher for those homeowners who may have to

392
00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 1: refinance their mortgages at higher rates. So let's hope that

393
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 1: our new PM can help steer the ship. Two Calma sees.

394
00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 1: Last week, a meme I posted to Instagram about Central

395
00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 1: Bank digital currencies or CBDCs was fact checked. This came

396
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: as a shock because everything the meme says about CBDCs

397
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:54,160
Speaker 1: is factually correct. It also came as a shock because

398
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 1: it suggests that governments are slowly starting to clamp down

399
00:25:57,840 --> 00:26:02,240
Speaker 1: on narratives that go against their upcoming CBDCs. If this

400
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:06,760
Speaker 1: is true, then it is flat out terrifying. That's why

401
00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: today I'm going to analyze the CBDC meme I posted,

402
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 1: explain why it's accurate, summarize what the fact checkers said,

403
00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: and assess whether this is an anomaly or the beginning

404
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:22,240
Speaker 1: of a bigger trend. Let's start by taking a closer

405
00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,680
Speaker 1: look at that CBDC meme. As you can see, it

406
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 1: features a gray NPC all excited that the government is

407
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: rolling out a CBDC. This is because the only thing

408
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: the NPC can see is the convenience of a CBDC.

409
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 1: The NPC doesn't see all the dystopian attributes that CBDC

410
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 1: will have. Now As a fun fact, the NPC meme

411
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 1: has its origins in psychological research, which found that many

412
00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: people have no inner monologue. In other words, there's a

413
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 1: substantial percentage of people who do not reflect on their past,

414
00:26:57,840 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 1: present and future emotions, decide, et cetera. NPC stands for

415
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 1: nonplayer character, and any gamers in the crowd will know

416
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:09,920
Speaker 1: that this term refers to any video game character that

417
00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 1: isn't controlled by a real person. In other words, NPCs

418
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: are robots that just go along with the programming. The

419
00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 1: more you know now, you'll notice there is a social

420
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,160
Speaker 1: media handle on the bottom left of the CBDC meme.

421
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:26,959
Speaker 1: It reads the Freethought Project, which appears to be an

422
00:27:26,960 --> 00:27:30,840
Speaker 1: alternative media website. I reckon it's safe to assume that

423
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,520
Speaker 1: this is the creator of this meme, and it would

424
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:37,480
Speaker 1: actually explain a lot. That's because when I searched for

425
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 1: the Freethought Project on Google, one of the first results

426
00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:45,440
Speaker 1: was from PolitiFact, an American fact checking website. PolitiFact notes

427
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 1: that the Free Thought Project has published two articles that

428
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: it takes issue with, one of which is mostly false

429
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 1: and another which is entirely false. This is significant because

430
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,040
Speaker 1: it's possible that the mention of the Freethought Project in

431
00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 1: the meme was why it was fact checked by Instagram.

432
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 1: In case you didn't know, Instagram's algorithm can read text

433
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,800
Speaker 1: in images, it might have seen that content by the

434
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:14,639
Speaker 1: Free Thought Project had been fact checked before to the

435
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 1: alternative media sites credit. It did issue a correction on

436
00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 1: the article which was mostly false after getting called out.

437
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: The other one that was deemed entirely false hasn't been corrected,

438
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,800
Speaker 1: and that's because it deals with a very contentious political

439
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 1: issue that I won't even try to discuss lest I

440
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 1: be fact checked. Two. I also can't help but find

441
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 1: it funny that Politi fact seems to take issue with

442
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,200
Speaker 1: the fact that the Freethought Project's purpose is to quote

443
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 1: foster the creation and expansion of liberty minded solutions to

444
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: modern day tyrannical oppression. I suppose that tells you all

445
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:53,280
Speaker 1: you need to know about these fact checkers. Note that

446
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,280
Speaker 1: I'll break down the fact check on this CBDC meme

447
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: near the end of the video, but trust me when

448
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,480
Speaker 1: I say you'll want to stick around until then. Now,

449
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 1: while it's possible that the CBDC meme was fact checked

450
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: because of its creator, it's equally, if not more, likely

451
00:29:09,320 --> 00:29:11,880
Speaker 1: that it was fact checked because of its contents. As

452
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 1: you can see, there are twelve statements made about CBDCs

453
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 1: in the meme. Before I unpack those, you should know

454
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 1: that there are two types of CBDCs, wholesale CBDCs and

455
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 1: retail CBDCs. Now, if you've watched any of our videos

456
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: about CBDCs, you'll know that wholesale CBDCs will be used

457
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: by select individuals and institutions, while retail CBDCs will be

458
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 1: used by regular folks like you and me. What this

459
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 1: means is that there will be two different digital currency systems,

460
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,480
Speaker 1: one system for the elites, the corporations, and the governments,

461
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 1: and another system for everyone else. The statements about CBDCs

462
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 1: made in this meme, as well as others like it,

463
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:00,880
Speaker 1: pertain to a retail CBDC, not a whole sales CBDC.

464
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 1: So the first statement is quote banks have full control

465
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 1: of every penny you own. Assuming other forms of fiat

466
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 1: currency like cash are phased out, then this is one correct.

467
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,920
Speaker 1: Central banks will have total control over what you can buy,

468
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 1: when you can buy it, and even how much money

469
00:30:22,000 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: you can save. You might be wondering how this is

470
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 1: different from the current financial system. After all, we've seen

471
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:33,240
Speaker 1: banks freeze bank accounts before. A recent example is Canadian

472
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: banks freezing the accounts of protesters back in February, something

473
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:42,240
Speaker 1: that was truly unprecedented for a developed country. The difference

474
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 1: is that the existing financial system is still relatively decentralized.

475
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 1: For example, there are multiple banks and payment processes. If

476
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,480
Speaker 1: one of them starts to limit what you can buy

477
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 1: and when, then you can take your business elsewhere in

478
00:30:57,000 --> 00:31:01,360
Speaker 1: a Canada type scenario, you can still use. More importantly,

479
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: there are many non bank entities, or so called shadow banks.

480
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: A great example is cryptocurrency platforms that offer visa debit cards.

481
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:15,200
Speaker 1: These platforms don't always require extensive k y C, and

482
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: they can't be forced to comply with, say, in order

483
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 1: to freeze the bank accounts of protesters. In a CBDC system, however,

484
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 1: there won't be any competing banks, and there certainly won't

485
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: be any shadow banks. Instead, you will have an account

486
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,440
Speaker 1: directly with the central bank. The commercial banks and payment

487
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 1: processes will only exist until the government has rolled out

488
00:31:37,080 --> 00:31:41,080
Speaker 1: its own infrastructure. Now, in theory, the central Bank is

489
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:45,120
Speaker 1: independent of the government, but in practice it's not. I

490
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,280
Speaker 1: would argue that the introduction of a CBDC would actually

491
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 1: cause the two to merge, as many are already predicting.

492
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: This means that it's really the government that will have

493
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: total control over what you can buy and when. If

494
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: that wasn't bad enough, The Bank for International Settlements or

495
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: b i S the Bank for Central Banks, recently published

496
00:32:05,840 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: a report detailing what it believes the future of the

497
00:32:08,720 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 1: financial system will look like. The t L d R

498
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 1: is that they see all assets being token ized on

499
00:32:14,760 --> 00:32:18,800
Speaker 1: a government and central bank blockchain. What this means is

500
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 1: that you will un ironically own nothing and be happy.

501
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: This is because you think you will own your assets,

502
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 1: when in reality, the government will have the ability to

503
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 1: turn your ownership off at the click of a button.

504
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 1: So be sure to keep physical documents proving your ownership

505
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 1: and your identity. Now, the second statement is quote vulnerability

506
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 1: to state and foreign actors. And this is a fact

507
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,640
Speaker 1: about CBDC s that is often overlooked. It's also a

508
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,640
Speaker 1: concern that's been mentioned in many CBDC reports, namely the

509
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 1: Federal Reserves report about a digital dollar from earlier this year.

510
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,680
Speaker 1: You see, if every person in a country has their

511
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 1: bank account at the central bank, then this creates a

512
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 1: single point from which the entire financial system of a

513
00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: country could be exploited or manipulated. History suggests that it's

514
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: not a question of if this will happen, but when

515
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:21,960
Speaker 1: it will happen. This ties into the third statement, which

516
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:26,000
Speaker 1: is quote social credit scores. Now, this is not actually

517
00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:29,640
Speaker 1: something I've seen discussed in any CBDC reports, at least

518
00:33:29,920 --> 00:33:33,160
Speaker 1: not yet. That probably has to do with the fact

519
00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 1: that people associate the concept of social credit scores with

520
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party. Attempting to roll out such a

521
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:44,920
Speaker 1: system would likely result in a revolution in most other countries.

522
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:49,120
Speaker 1: That's why these other countries are taking a slightly different approach,

523
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 1: and that's to introduce a carbon credit system for their citizens.

524
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: Sounds environmentally friendly, doesn't it. An individual carbon credit system

525
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:00,400
Speaker 1: is something I discussed at length in another the video,

526
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,080
Speaker 1: which I'll leave in the description. The short of it

527
00:34:03,240 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 1: is that governments will create an elaborate incentive structure for

528
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 1: their citizens to emit less carbon a CBDC and centralized

529
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 1: digital I D will be required for this system. Now,

530
00:34:16,600 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 1: the fourth statement is quote every transaction is documented, which

531
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: is literally in every CBDC report. Obviously, the central banks

532
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: and governments are going to want to know about every

533
00:34:27,600 --> 00:34:31,760
Speaker 1: transaction that's ever happened. Something tells me that data protection

534
00:34:31,840 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 1: laws like g d p R won't apply with CBDCs.

535
00:34:36,600 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 1: The fifth statement is quote access to your money can

536
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: be turned off at any moment. This is essentially the

537
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 1: same statement as banks have full control of every penny

538
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,440
Speaker 1: you own. And the sixth statement, which is quote frozen funds.

539
00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 1: If you're skeptical, that CBDCs will have these restrictions. Consider

540
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: the following quotes from the b I S Quote Quantity

541
00:35:00,040 --> 00:35:03,920
Speaker 1: base safeguards would restrict the use of CBDC through imposing

542
00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 1: hard limits on the transfers and or holdings of CBDC.

543
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: Quote limits could also be applied varyingly for different CBDC

544
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 1: account holders. And finally, quote such limits could be imposed

545
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: on a permanent basis or on a transitional basis. Now,

546
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:25,640
Speaker 1: this actually reminds me of something that's important to point out.

547
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 1: Believe it or not, but the money you have in

548
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: your bank account technically doesn't belong to you. It belongs

549
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: to the bank. It just sits in its vault store

550
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,960
Speaker 1: on its electronic ledgers under your name. The same is

551
00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 1: true of any other asset you hold with a third party,

552
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 1: including any coins or tokens you have on a cryptocurrency exchange.

553
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: News flash, financial freedom doesn't mean having lots of assets

554
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:57,919
Speaker 1: in custody. It means owning your assets and deciding how

555
00:35:58,160 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: and when they are spent. The value of financial freedom

556
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:05,879
Speaker 1: will become evident once central bank digital currencies are rolled out,

557
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 1: and this will lead to serious crypto adoption. Anyways, the

558
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:14,319
Speaker 1: seventh statement is the one the NPC in the meme

559
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:19,359
Speaker 1: is focused on, and that's the convenience of CBDCs. Funnily enough,

560
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:23,800
Speaker 1: central banks, governments, and international organizations have held up the

561
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 1: convenience of CBDCs as the fundamental justification for their rollout.

562
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:32,920
Speaker 1: They say that CBDCs will be faster, safer, and cheaper

563
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:37,920
Speaker 1: than traditional banking. The irony is that they simultaneously admit

564
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 1: that existing financial technologies are evolving to become even faster,

565
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 1: safer and cheaper, including cryptocurrency. This just proves that CBDCs

566
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 1: are about control and nothing more. Now, this relates to

567
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: the eighth statement, and that's centralization. This one is admittedly

568
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 1: debatable because some countries want inactial banks and payment processes

569
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:06,000
Speaker 1: to run notes on their CBDC networks, whereas others want

570
00:37:06,040 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 1: the central banks and the governments to be the only

571
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:13,799
Speaker 1: CBDC notes regardless of the setup, though it's almost guaranteed

572
00:37:14,040 --> 00:37:17,560
Speaker 1: that the government will have a back door. This is

573
00:37:18,040 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 1: very bad because centralization is inherently unstable. This is because

574
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: any issue with or compromise of the core infrastructure means

575
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:32,640
Speaker 1: that the entire financial system is pardon my French, now,

576
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 1: what's scary is that the financial system has been trending

577
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 1: towards increasing centralization for quite some time. This was revealed

578
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:43,960
Speaker 1: in a twenty nineteen report by black Rock, which stated

579
00:37:44,080 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: that all the financial regulations we've seen since two thousand

580
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:51,680
Speaker 1: and eight were implemented to further centralize the financial system.

581
00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 1: The reason why the financial system is centralizing is because

582
00:37:56,239 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: its current iteration is collapsing. Central banks and governments are

583
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:04,680
Speaker 1: desperately trying to keep the Ponzi from falling apart. Being

584
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 1: able to dictate every transaction in the economy with a

585
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 1: CBDC is the only solution as they see it. The

586
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:16,879
Speaker 1: ninth statement is similarly scary, and that's quote all your

587
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: movements and actions are traceable. This is also something I

588
00:38:21,400 --> 00:38:24,400
Speaker 1: haven't seen in CBDC reports, and to be honest, I

589
00:38:24,440 --> 00:38:28,680
Speaker 1: think it borders on conspiracy. Then again, there is precedent

590
00:38:28,800 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 1: for it because of all the data collection by commercial

591
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 1: banking apps. As per reporting by the Telegraph and others,

592
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: many banks are now tracking their customers through their mobile apps.

593
00:38:40,080 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 1: This is supposedly being done to catch scammers and criminals,

594
00:38:43,800 --> 00:38:46,680
Speaker 1: but I suspect it has as much or more to

595
00:38:46,840 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 1: do with gathering data that can be sold to advertisers

596
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 1: for additional profits. As such, it's not far fetched to

597
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 1: think that the mobile app you'd use to access your

598
00:38:56,560 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 1: CBDC account would track your movements and location for similar reasons.

599
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,800
Speaker 1: It's possible that it would even be required, as some

600
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 1: central banks have discussed to limit CBDC payments to merchants

601
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:14,880
Speaker 1: within specific locations. The tenth statement is quote zero anonymity,

602
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 1: and this one is probably the most accurate and up

603
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:21,800
Speaker 1: to date. That's because Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently

604
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 1: specified that a digital dollar will be quote identity verified,

605
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:29,320
Speaker 1: so it would not be anonymous. Similar statements can be

606
00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: found in most CBDC reports now. The eleventh statement is

607
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 1: quote cyber security attacks, which is almost the same as

608
00:39:37,520 --> 00:39:41,320
Speaker 1: vulnerability to state and foreign actors. It goes without saying

609
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 1: that no central bank wants a cyber attack on its CBDC,

610
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: but this is something that all of them are again

611
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: extremely concerned about, and understandably so. In the case of

612
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,239
Speaker 1: the United States, the Federal Reserve wants to make sure

613
00:39:55,320 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 1: that its digital dollar is resistant to cyber attacks from

614
00:39:58,920 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 1: quantum computers. Without getting two technical quantum computers will eventually

615
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 1: be able to crack any encryption that exists today, and

616
00:40:07,600 --> 00:40:12,359
Speaker 1: it's possible that they can already now. Although many are

617
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 1: worried about a cyber attack on a cryptocurrency, the fact

618
00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:18,520
Speaker 1: of the matter is that the existing financial system is

619
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 1: a much bigger and much more lucrative target. This is why,

620
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 1: according to PwC, the FED is working with m I

621
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:30,280
Speaker 1: T to make its digital dollar resistant to quantum computers.

622
00:40:30,719 --> 00:40:35,440
Speaker 1: As I've mentioned before, Algorand recently achieved quantum resistance and

623
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: its founder, Sylvia McAuley is based at m I T.

624
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 1: Not saying that Algorand is going to be the blockchain

625
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: that powers a digital dollar, but it's max USDC supply

626
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,880
Speaker 1: of eighteen point four trillion suggests that the crypto project

627
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:53,560
Speaker 1: is trying to prepare for such a role. More about

628
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:58,720
Speaker 1: Algorand in the description. I digress now. The final statement

629
00:40:58,840 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: in the CBDC mean is quote zero privacy, which sounds

630
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:06,279
Speaker 1: the same as zero anonymity at first glance, but it's

631
00:41:06,360 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 1: actually not, at least not according to the Central banks.

632
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 1: It might sound strange, but CBDCs will in fact offer

633
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:21,320
Speaker 1: privacy despite not offering any anonymity. Confused, well, consider that

634
00:41:21,440 --> 00:41:25,239
Speaker 1: the definition of privacy used by central banks means that

635
00:41:25,400 --> 00:41:29,280
Speaker 1: your information is not shared with any private entities, only

636
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:33,240
Speaker 1: public entities such as the central bank and the government.

637
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 1: CBDCs will therefore be private according to that horrendous definition

638
00:41:40,239 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: of privacy. I can't wait until the fact checkers start

639
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:48,400
Speaker 1: claiming missing context on that one, any who, in addition

640
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 1: to being private, CBDC transactions will apparently not contain any

641
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 1: personal information about senders and recipients by default. Instead, security

642
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 1: officials at central banks and governments will selectively reveal this

643
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 1: information on any transactions deemed to be suspicious. Given that

644
00:42:08,400 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 1: you will probably have no way of knowing when you're

645
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:14,759
Speaker 1: being probed by some three letter agency, it's more than

646
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 1: likely that this power will be abused, assuming such a

647
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:24,040
Speaker 1: restriction is even implemented at all to begin with. And finally,

648
00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 1: we have the apparent inner monologue of the NPC, which reads, quote, hey, cool,

649
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:31,880
Speaker 1: the government is trying to make my life easier with

650
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 1: the digital currency. I quickly want to comment on this

651
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:39,240
Speaker 1: because convenience is probably not how governments and central banks

652
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:43,960
Speaker 1: will sell their CBDCs. This is because their own statistics

653
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 1: suggest that between four and twelve percent of citizens in

654
00:42:47,520 --> 00:42:52,879
Speaker 1: g twenty countries would voluntarily adopt a CBDC. This means

655
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 1: that they must go down another route that's been actively discussed,

656
00:42:56,600 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 1: and that's to make CBDCs mandatory for the payment of

657
00:43:00,120 --> 00:43:04,280
Speaker 1: taxes and other forms of subtle theft. They will also

658
00:43:04,560 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 1: use CBDCs to distribute social benefits, pensions, and any emergency

659
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 1: stimulus in response to future financial shocks. This will force

660
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: most citizens to adopt CBDCs, which they won't like. Hence

661
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:21,400
Speaker 1: why the governments and central banks want to get rid

662
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 1: of physical cash. As per the ECB's own admission, more

663
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,800
Speaker 1: about the ECBs Digital euro aspirations using the link in

664
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,399
Speaker 1: the description. This brings me to the moment you've all

665
00:43:33,480 --> 00:43:35,919
Speaker 1: been waiting for, and that's what the hell the fact

666
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: check on the CBDC meme said. Well, I'll start by

667
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 1: saying that the fact check was removed shortly before I

668
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:46,320
Speaker 1: put together this video. This is possibly because my tweet

669
00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: about it went viral, but it's more likely it was

670
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 1: an error. That's because the description of the fact check

671
00:43:56,560 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 1: reads quote. Social media posts claim an executive order from

672
00:44:00,560 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 1: Joe Biden eliminates cash and enables the government to monitor transactions.

673
00:44:05,960 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 1: This is misleading While the US President did call for

674
00:44:09,640 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: additional research on a central bank digital currency, the order

675
00:44:13,480 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 1: does nothing to limit cash use. The authors add that quote,

676
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:21,920
Speaker 1: experts say any such system would be legally required to

677
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:26,880
Speaker 1: include privacy protections and involve the independent Federal Reserve Banks

678
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:31,360
Speaker 1: and Congress. By now you'll know what privacy means to

679
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:35,279
Speaker 1: these people, and that the FED probably won't stay independent

680
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 1: with a CBDC. You'll also know that the CBDC meme

681
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:42,600
Speaker 1: doesn't say anything about Joe Biden or eliminating cash, even

682
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 1: though that's something the central banks actually want. Even so,

683
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 1: I must admit that many of the examples of this

684
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:53,040
Speaker 1: misleading information given by the fact checkers are as accurate

685
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: as the CBDC meme. What irks me is the fact

686
00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:00,640
Speaker 1: checkers claim that the US government is far away from

687
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 1: launching a digital dollar, when billions of de facto digital

688
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:09,920
Speaker 1: dollars are already in circulation today. Circles USDC is the

689
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:12,920
Speaker 1: elephant in the room here because the company is basically

690
00:45:13,000 --> 00:45:16,400
Speaker 1: looking to become a part of the FED. More about

691
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 1: that in the description now. As expected, the fact checkers

692
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: agree that quote it is probably better for privacy and

693
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 1: civil and human rights purposes for some pieces of information

694
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 1: to be collected by intermediaries rather than the central bank.

695
00:45:32,080 --> 00:45:36,000
Speaker 1: Whatever you do, don't forget that warped definition of privacy

696
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 1: in relation to a CBDC. The fact checkers even go

697
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 1: as far as insinuating that a CBDC on a public

698
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 1: and transparent blockchain is analogous to China's digital yue, which

699
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:52,200
Speaker 1: is just insane. They also reaffirmed that the United States

700
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 1: CBDC network would be run by a collection of entities

701
00:45:55,480 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: in the private and public sector. The fact checkers finish

702
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,240
Speaker 1: off the article implying that the rollout of a digital

703
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:05,560
Speaker 1: dollar is justified because one d other countries are testing

704
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 1: CBDCs according to the International Monetary Fund or i m F.

705
00:46:09,840 --> 00:46:12,239
Speaker 1: This reminds me of what my mother used to say,

706
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:14,960
Speaker 1: if everyone is jumping off a bridge, should you do

707
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 1: it too? In all seriousness, it's clear that this particular

708
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:23,200
Speaker 1: fact check is related to the upcoming midterm elections in

709
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:27,720
Speaker 1: the United States. Historical search trends for fact check reveal

710
00:46:27,920 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 1: that fact checks spike every time there is an election.

711
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:34,840
Speaker 1: This makes sense given most of these fact checking websites

712
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 1: are politically oriented. That said, you might have heard about

713
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:42,840
Speaker 1: the recently leaked documents which revealed that the Department of

714
00:46:42,920 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 1: Homeland Security, or DHS, has been asking social media companies

715
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:51,360
Speaker 1: to suppress and take down any content that quote undermines

716
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 1: trust in financial systems. This CBDC meme certainly falls into

717
00:46:56,640 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: that category, and it begs the question of just how

718
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:03,240
Speaker 1: much the DHS and others will start to censor social

719
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:07,120
Speaker 1: media once CBDCs start being rolled out around the world.

720
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 1: Something tells me that this won't be the last time

721
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 1: that this crypto guy gets fact checked. Thank you so

722
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:18,399
Speaker 1: much for listening to the coin Bureau podcast. If you'd

723
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:21,440
Speaker 1: like to learn more about cryptocurrency, you can visit our

724
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:24,840
Speaker 1: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com forward slash coin Bureau.

725
00:47:25,239 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 1: You can also go to coin bureau dot com for

726
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:30,439
Speaker 1: loads more information about all things crypto. You can follow

727
00:47:30,520 --> 00:47:33,080
Speaker 1: me on Twitter at at coin bureau or one word,

728
00:47:33,520 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 1: and I'm also active on TikTok and Instagram too,