WEBVTT - Thinking Smart About Low-Probability Events 0:00:15.604 --> 0:00:27.804 Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 0:00:27.844 --> 0:00:30.324 better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova and. 0:00:30.244 --> 0:00:34.924 I'm Nate Silver. We have a very risky business cluster 0:00:35.084 --> 0:00:37.644 of topics. I would say. We're going to talk about 0:00:38.844 --> 0:00:41.244 an asteroid that may or may not hit Earth in 0:00:41.284 --> 0:00:45.244 a few years. The odds are improving, our guess declining, 0:00:45.244 --> 0:00:46.084 which is good for us. 0:00:46.364 --> 0:00:49.484 Then we will give you a little poker drama content 0:00:50.044 --> 0:00:52.444 with one of the world series of poker and one 0:00:52.484 --> 0:00:56.644 of its most famous faces, Phil Hellmuth, and his decision 0:00:56.844 --> 0:00:59.244 not to play the main event and what this means 0:00:59.364 --> 0:01:03.124 for poker strategy, skill, mental game and all of those 0:01:03.124 --> 0:01:03.764 fun things. 0:01:03.884 --> 0:01:07.524 And then we'll talk about what I call rock paper scissors, 0:01:07.684 --> 0:01:11.644 but what snobs call roch You vote, Oh. 0:01:11.564 --> 0:01:14.564 I love that you labeled me a snob, Nate immediately, 0:01:21.404 --> 0:01:27.884 So let's get going and start with existential risks, which 0:01:27.924 --> 0:01:31.284 we love talking about on this podcast. And yes, we 0:01:31.364 --> 0:01:34.804 have some going on in political events, but we are 0:01:34.844 --> 0:01:39.444 going to be talking about asteroids falling from the sky. 0:01:39.924 --> 0:01:43.924 So people who for people who weren't aware, a few 0:01:43.964 --> 0:01:48.964 weeks ago, there was a story that started getting bigger 0:01:49.044 --> 0:01:53.964 and bigger about an asteroid twenty twenty four y are 0:01:54.284 --> 0:02:01.684 four that was on a potential collision course with the Earth. Now, 0:02:01.764 --> 0:02:04.964 when the story first came out, the chances that it 0:02:05.084 --> 0:02:07.804 was going to hit Earth were around two percent, and 0:02:07.844 --> 0:02:10.364 then end of last week they had gone up to 0:02:10.564 --> 0:02:14.524 over three percent, three point one percent, and that has 0:02:14.644 --> 0:02:17.484 changed over the weekend. But that's when we decided that 0:02:17.524 --> 0:02:20.964 this would be an interesting story to do, because NATE 0:02:21.044 --> 0:02:22.764 three point one percent is not zero. 0:02:23.564 --> 0:02:25.924 I don't believe it was ever three percent. It was 0:02:26.164 --> 0:02:29.084 it was No, NASA was wrong. It can't have been. 0:02:29.764 --> 0:02:32.364 It can't have been three percent before an er point 0:02:32.884 --> 0:02:35.924 one oh point oh one seven percent now. 0:02:35.684 --> 0:02:39.244 So yes, it's something is thinky. So let's talk about 0:02:39.244 --> 0:02:41.124 the nature of uncertainty. 0:02:40.804 --> 0:02:44.084 Right, No, I because I build models, right and like 0:02:44.564 --> 0:02:47.844 so a model should change when you're toward the end 0:02:47.924 --> 0:02:50.644 of an event. Right at the end of an NBA 0:02:50.724 --> 0:02:55.404 basketball game, then a player missing a free throw has 0:02:55.564 --> 0:02:57.524 a large effect on you know, the New York next 0:02:57.564 --> 0:03:00.364 win probability. Right, we are now in twenty twenty five, 0:03:00.364 --> 0:03:02.804 Although it feels like we're accelebrating different ways, this pertains 0:03:02.804 --> 0:03:04.964 to an asterid that would hit the Earth in twenty 0:03:05.004 --> 0:03:07.924 thirty two And it's a fairly linear system, right, It's like, 0:03:09.604 --> 0:03:12.764 you know, it's just kind of basic physics and gravity 0:03:12.884 --> 0:03:17.364 and things like that, right, So why did these calculations 0:03:17.444 --> 0:03:21.484 like change by because like three percent and oero point zero, 0:03:21.564 --> 0:03:24.404 let's just run it to zero point oh two percent. 0:03:25.204 --> 0:03:27.204 They might sound similar, but that's like one two three, 0:03:27.204 --> 0:03:30.364 that's like four orders of magnitude, like one thousand x 0:03:31.004 --> 0:03:32.364 Like that seems to. 0:03:32.284 --> 0:03:35.164 Me, like, so there is an answer to this. So 0:03:35.284 --> 0:03:38.524 I'm obviously not an astrophysicist, so I looked at what 0:03:38.604 --> 0:03:44.444 some astrophysicists said about this change. So NPR actually did 0:03:44.444 --> 0:03:46.884 a segment where they talked to Paul Chodas, who's uh 0:03:47.124 --> 0:03:51.644 the director of NASA's JPL Center for Aneo Studies, and 0:03:52.044 --> 0:03:55.124 when he when he looked at this, he said, you know, 0:03:55.204 --> 0:03:58.484 we actually often have these changes from one percent to 0:03:58.604 --> 0:04:01.924 three percent, you know, all over the place in just 0:04:01.964 --> 0:04:06.164 a few weeks and sometimes days. Because the observations are 0:04:06.204 --> 0:04:09.244 incredibly challenging, and they do their best, but they're not 0:04:09.684 --> 0:04:13.844 actually looking at the asteroid, right, they're looking they're measuring 0:04:13.884 --> 0:04:17.564 the projections of the asteroid, and so every single night, 0:04:17.764 --> 0:04:21.644 what they're doing is estimating where the asteroid is, and 0:04:21.684 --> 0:04:25.924 then they're adjust to be able to make those observations. 0:04:26.244 --> 0:04:32.244 And so it's incredibly difficult even for the strongest telescopes 0:04:32.364 --> 0:04:36.604 that we have because, you know, because it's an asteroid, 0:04:36.844 --> 0:04:38.844 and as he said, you know, they actually need to 0:04:39.164 --> 0:04:41.324 try to build in all of these projections, all of 0:04:41.324 --> 0:04:44.324 these assumptions to try to catch it before it moves 0:04:44.364 --> 0:04:47.004 out of range, because it will move out of range 0:04:47.004 --> 0:04:48.724 and then they won't be able to make any more 0:04:48.764 --> 0:04:52.564 observations for the next few years. And so that's why 0:04:52.884 --> 0:04:55.844 this can change so much, not because there was something 0:04:55.844 --> 0:04:58.804 wrong with the model, but just because unlike a basketball team, 0:04:58.844 --> 0:05:00.684 where you know, you can see the team, you can 0:05:00.724 --> 0:05:03.764 see the players, everything is here. Because of the nature 0:05:03.804 --> 0:05:07.204 of the observations, it's actually incredibly difficult to get the data. 0:05:07.284 --> 0:05:09.764 And they do their best, but then it's like with 0:05:09.884 --> 0:05:13.284 any data analysis, you know, when you are sampling and 0:05:13.324 --> 0:05:15.284 then you figure out, okay, no, we need to change 0:05:15.324 --> 0:05:17.644 the parameters. We need to change it again. And so 0:05:17.724 --> 0:05:20.404 they're doing their best in a very very limited window 0:05:20.444 --> 0:05:22.524 of time, which is the time when they can actually 0:05:22.564 --> 0:05:25.804 make these observations. It's a critical period, but. 0:05:25.764 --> 0:05:28.844 They have seven years look I love astrophysicists. I had 0:05:28.884 --> 0:05:30.724 an uncle who worked at jp AL, that's the Jet 0:05:30.764 --> 0:05:33.684 Propulsion Laboratory. But like, I think it is the model, right, 0:05:33.684 --> 0:05:36.644 It's not like this asteroid hit a piece of debris 0:05:37.724 --> 0:05:41.244 and is now on a different trajectory, right, I know. 0:05:41.284 --> 0:05:45.204 I mean there's like kind of intrinsic model uncertainty, right. 0:05:45.284 --> 0:05:48.644 One of the reasons that AI existential risk is hard 0:05:48.644 --> 0:05:50.564 to measures because it kind of is not actually a 0:05:50.684 --> 0:05:55.004 very well precedented situation, and various reasons, right, And like, 0:05:55.684 --> 0:05:58.044 in some ways, the fact that it's unprecedented, it might 0:05:58.084 --> 0:06:01.284 make you mix the variance higher and therefore increases the 0:06:01.364 --> 0:06:04.884 risk of doom in some ways. But like, I don't know, 0:06:04.924 --> 0:06:10.764 I think like physical uncertainty versus model uncertainty, I think 0:06:10.884 --> 0:06:14.564 is a slippery concept, but one that I don't know. 0:06:14.604 --> 0:06:16.324 I don't know if we need like a big press 0:06:17.364 --> 0:06:23.004 panic where if it's necessarily even helpful to put a 0:06:23.124 --> 0:06:26.204 number on something, because again, three percent versus o two 0:06:26.244 --> 0:06:28.924 percent is a big change, right order of course. 0:06:28.764 --> 0:06:32.924 Right, so three percent be worried point oh whatever percent, No, 0:06:33.164 --> 0:06:36.324 we're no longer worried at all. As poker players, we 0:06:36.364 --> 0:06:37.924 know that three percent equals worry. 0:06:38.364 --> 0:06:40.964 Three percent is a fucking more than a two hour, right, 0:06:40.964 --> 0:06:43.444 that shit happens. Yeah. 0:06:43.524 --> 0:06:45.644 Man, when it was that three I was like, oh shit, 0:06:45.764 --> 0:06:47.604 And then when it fell, I was like, Okay, We're good. 0:06:48.564 --> 0:06:52.444 I mean my p doom from AI is higher than 0:06:52.484 --> 0:06:54.284 three percent. So like, I'm kind of feel like I'm 0:06:54.284 --> 0:06:57.524 living in a cloud anyway, right, And this is like 0:06:57.604 --> 0:06:59.964 not an existential risk, is it? No? 0:06:59.964 --> 0:07:03.884 No, So this particular, this particular asteroid was what is 0:07:03.964 --> 0:07:10.484 called a city killer category. So that is basically, if 0:07:10.484 --> 0:07:12.764 it falls over city, right, if it falls over New York, 0:07:12.804 --> 0:07:16.884 new York's gone. But if it falls you know, somewhere 0:07:17.244 --> 0:07:21.364 in the ocean. You know, if it falls somewhere in Siberia, 0:07:21.404 --> 0:07:24.524 which is where the last asteroid that was approximately the 0:07:24.644 --> 0:07:28.124 size fell, you're relatively fine. Of course, there's going to 0:07:28.164 --> 0:07:34.124 be a lot of impact. And it is projected that 0:07:34.244 --> 0:07:37.604 if this asteroid had actually hit the Earth, it would 0:07:37.604 --> 0:07:40.884 be more than five hundred times the power of the 0:07:41.004 --> 0:07:44.444 Hiroshima bomb. So it depends on where it is. But 0:07:44.564 --> 0:07:48.364 this is not a dinosaur level asteroid that's going to 0:07:48.844 --> 0:07:50.204 you know, wipe out seventy five percent. 0:07:50.244 --> 0:07:52.444 There's a lot of Siberia, Maria. There's a lot more 0:07:52.484 --> 0:07:55.924 Siberia than New York. And you know what is it 0:07:57.284 --> 0:08:00.724 covered by oceans? So bad news for the whales, right, 0:08:00.804 --> 0:08:01.404 But like. 0:08:01.924 --> 0:08:04.644 But even when it was at its worst, scientists were saying, 0:08:04.684 --> 0:08:06.804 you know, like even if it's headed you know, obviously 0:08:06.844 --> 0:08:08.844 it would be horrific if it were headed for New 0:08:08.924 --> 0:08:13.844 York or any major city, but they would know with 0:08:14.284 --> 0:08:19.084 enough lead time that if otherwise they couldn't change the trajectory, 0:08:19.244 --> 0:08:21.844 which they probably could, by the way, So assuming they 0:08:21.884 --> 0:08:25.004 were completely unsuccessful in the asteroid were actually going to 0:08:25.604 --> 0:08:28.164 hit let's just say New York, they would have enough 0:08:28.204 --> 0:08:30.724 lead time where they'd be able to evacuate everyone. Obviously 0:08:30.764 --> 0:08:36.404 still not ideal, but no one, you know, presumably presumably 0:08:36.444 --> 0:08:38.924 it would be under control. But let's let's talk a 0:08:38.924 --> 0:08:42.124 little bit just in general, you know, how how we 0:08:42.164 --> 0:08:44.884 should think about these sorts of things. Obviously it does 0:08:45.004 --> 0:08:49.564 matter when we're talking about small probabilities of events with 0:08:50.604 --> 0:08:54.244 very high potential costs. You know, it's an interesting it's 0:08:54.284 --> 0:08:58.324 an interesting just lens to try to figure out, Okay, 0:08:58.444 --> 0:09:00.884 how do we evaluate these risks? And we've talked about 0:09:00.924 --> 0:09:04.724 this before with p doom with E with AI, and 0:09:05.004 --> 0:09:09.204 I think that now it's incredibly important for people to 0:09:09.444 --> 0:09:12.084 understand how to look at these small probabilities because we 0:09:12.124 --> 0:09:14.284 have a lot of them. Right, There's a lot of uncertainty, 0:09:14.324 --> 0:09:15.684 and there are a lot of things in the news, 0:09:16.044 --> 0:09:19.244 not just with AI and asteroids, where it's important to 0:09:19.324 --> 0:09:22.364 understand these numbers. So how do we look at it 0:09:22.404 --> 0:09:24.684 and say, Okay, you know, why are we worried about 0:09:24.684 --> 0:09:29.524 three percent? Why aren't we worried about point oh two percent? Right? Like, 0:09:29.564 --> 0:09:31.884 what are the thresholds? How do you think about it? 0:09:32.284 --> 0:09:34.964 And kind of how should we think about it when 0:09:35.004 --> 0:09:38.724 we have an outsized potential impact despite a small chance 0:09:38.804 --> 0:09:39.644 of something happening. 0:09:40.524 --> 0:09:43.604 Yeah, I mean maybe you can calculate an expected value 0:09:43.684 --> 0:09:46.924 terms of course, I'd say that as a poker player 0:09:47.124 --> 0:09:51.204 kind of the theme of the show. Absolutely, Let's say 0:09:51.324 --> 0:09:56.804 that there is a five percent chance that if it hits, 0:09:56.844 --> 0:10:02.084 it wipes out a metro region of like ten million people. 0:10:03.164 --> 0:10:06.724 Multiply that by like three percent. What's the math here? 0:10:06.804 --> 0:10:10.164 Let me let me bring up the old trustee Google calculator. 0:10:10.884 --> 0:10:11.964 Let's do it. 0:10:11.964 --> 0:10:14.844 It's three hundred thousand people, right, But that assumes the 0:10:14.844 --> 0:10:16.764 astro would always kill ten mini people. Let's say they's 0:10:16.764 --> 0:10:19.844 just an zero point five percent chance of that. Sorry, 0:10:19.924 --> 0:10:23.004 I'm actually not very good at using a calculator, apparently. 0:10:24.684 --> 0:10:28.004 Things that we learn on the Risky Business podcast date. 0:10:28.124 --> 0:10:31.604 I had no idea that calculators were not a strength 0:10:31.604 --> 0:10:32.284 of yours. 0:10:32.764 --> 0:10:34.684 I do you want to know how many browser windows 0:10:34.684 --> 0:10:37.724 I have opened? Maria? No, No, I probably don't. 0:10:37.884 --> 0:10:39.764 I'd probably have a heart attack in the middle of tay. 0:10:40.044 --> 0:10:43.524 Okay, So that is, like, that's an expected value loss 0:10:43.564 --> 0:10:47.844 of fifteen thousand people. Now, okay, we can like displace them, 0:10:49.044 --> 0:10:52.964 we can send some rockets up there, we can nuke 0:10:53.004 --> 0:10:55.524 the asteroid. Might not be a good idea, but who knows, right, 0:10:57.404 --> 0:11:00.564 But like that seems actually fairly rational that like a 0:11:00.644 --> 0:11:06.364 fifteen thousand person expected displacement let's call it event, is 0:11:06.444 --> 0:11:09.324 worth planning for. Right, Yeah, that's now if you reduced 0:11:09.604 --> 0:11:14.644 by four then whatever, you know, whatever, whatever, Like not 0:11:14.724 --> 0:11:16.444 that I don't care about it, like fifteen people. Like 0:11:16.444 --> 0:11:17.964 not that I don't care about fifteen people, but like 0:11:18.524 --> 0:11:21.004 we kind of brush aside risks like that. 0:11:21.084 --> 0:11:23.964 All the all the time. Yeah, absolutely, I think that's 0:11:24.044 --> 0:11:26.884 actually that's an interesting way of looking at it. And 0:11:26.924 --> 0:11:28.844 I think that that makes sense. And by the way, 0:11:28.884 --> 0:11:31.324 that is the way that a lot of you know, 0:11:31.364 --> 0:11:34.004 insurance companies, et cetera look at things, right, And we've 0:11:34.044 --> 0:11:36.444 talked about like the cost of a human life, right, 0:11:36.484 --> 0:11:39.604 what's the risk premium you need to take on to 0:11:39.644 --> 0:11:43.124 take on risky jobs. So this, this type of calculation 0:11:43.204 --> 0:11:45.964 where you're looking at lives is actually one that a 0:11:46.004 --> 0:11:49.444 lot of industries, a lot of industries look at. Fifteen 0:11:49.484 --> 0:11:52.804 thousand is huge. And now imagine this is just the 0:11:52.844 --> 0:11:56.244 life calculation. If we're doing a full expected value calculation, 0:11:56.284 --> 0:11:58.524 we'd also have to look at, you know, the loss 0:11:58.564 --> 0:12:03.284 of property, loss of infrastructure. Let's assume that some major 0:12:03.484 --> 0:12:06.804 major things are actually taken off the grid, right, like 0:12:06.924 --> 0:12:09.924 what is the overall cost? And now we are talking 0:12:09.964 --> 0:12:13.124 not just human lives, but there's a huge economic cost 0:12:13.804 --> 0:12:17.404 as well. So it becomes very complicated and you realize, okay, yeah, 0:12:17.404 --> 0:12:20.404 we should probably be worried about something like that and 0:12:20.484 --> 0:12:23.604 about the risk of something like that happening. And that's 0:12:23.644 --> 0:12:28.044 when you realize that, you know, small numbers get multiplied 0:12:28.084 --> 0:12:30.964 out right, and they become much the impact becomes much 0:12:31.044 --> 0:12:32.804 larger when it's an event like this. 0:12:33.644 --> 0:12:38.124 It's also kind of very visible. I'd guess you'd say, 0:12:38.204 --> 0:12:42.124 you know what I mean, like like it's going to 0:12:42.204 --> 0:12:44.724 slowly approach the Earth, and you know, I mean like 0:12:45.324 --> 0:12:47.804 which you know, Usually these more legible, tangible risks are 0:12:47.844 --> 0:12:51.004 actually things that society is better than dealing with. And 0:12:51.044 --> 0:12:54.004 it's very linear, right, Whereas, like if you read some 0:12:54.164 --> 0:12:59.644 scary AI scenarios, there might be some morning signs of 0:12:59.804 --> 0:13:04.724 AI being more becoming more adversarial or smarter or whatever else. 0:13:05.964 --> 0:13:08.004 But it could just be that AI hatches a very 0:13:09.124 --> 0:13:13.204 very well kept secret plan to like destroy its human masters, right, 0:13:14.404 --> 0:13:17.684 you know, and that happens very efficiently quote unquote and 0:13:17.764 --> 0:13:19.884 very quickly, or a nuclear war. I mean, I remember 0:13:19.924 --> 0:13:24.404 it was my fortieth birthday on January thirteenth, nineteen to god, 0:13:24.444 --> 0:13:28.364 I'm dumb twenty eighteen. Right when the alert came out, I. 0:13:28.244 --> 0:13:30.884 Was like, wait, wait, you did not try forty and 0:13:30.964 --> 0:13:34.004 nineteen something, or you look great twenty eighteen? 0:13:34.964 --> 0:13:38.804 Is that right? Yeah? I'm showing my age. When the 0:13:38.804 --> 0:13:40.844 alert came out saying, oh, this is not a drill. 0:13:40.884 --> 0:13:44.084 There is a nuclear ICBM inbound toward Hawaii. I'm like, 0:13:44.364 --> 0:13:47.044 you know, I'm not sure if I feel greater. I 0:13:47.044 --> 0:13:49.644 have my birthday party on this day. It turned out 0:13:49.684 --> 0:13:51.684 to be a false alarm again, right, but like, but 0:13:51.764 --> 0:13:54.524 this is something we would have time to adjust to. 0:13:54.764 --> 0:13:57.084 Argument that makes it kind of better to actually moditor 0:13:57.284 --> 0:13:58.644 these situations. 0:13:59.044 --> 0:14:02.284 I think that's Actually that's a really crucial point when 0:14:02.284 --> 0:14:05.524 we're talking about risk. It's much easier for the human 0:14:05.564 --> 0:14:10.644 mind to latch onto something that's tangible and that's easy 0:14:10.684 --> 0:14:15.284 to observe, as opposed to something that's kind of more uncertain, 0:14:15.564 --> 0:14:18.004 that can be kind of more under the radar, and 0:14:18.044 --> 0:14:20.764 those risks are often much more dangerous, but it's much 0:14:20.804 --> 0:14:24.404 more difficult to convince people that it's dangerous because it's 0:14:24.564 --> 0:14:28.804 not something that you can easily look and uh and 0:14:29.284 --> 0:14:31.804 quantify and say oh uh huh, yep, we see that 0:14:31.884 --> 0:14:35.164 it has gotten gone from this to this. An interesting 0:14:35.204 --> 0:14:38.684 example of this just you know, going going a little 0:14:38.684 --> 0:14:41.084 bit back in time, you know, when you're talking about 0:14:41.124 --> 0:14:44.764 climate change versus the ozone layer, right when when it 0:14:44.804 --> 0:14:48.244 was a hole in the ozone layer that shit, people 0:14:48.284 --> 0:14:50.084 banded together and we're like, oh my god, hole in 0:14:50.124 --> 0:14:54.044 the ozone layer. There was great collective action and like 0:14:55.404 --> 0:14:57.844 we did it right, Like we actually addressed that really 0:14:57.924 --> 0:15:00.764 quickly because it's you know, hole in the ozone layer. 0:15:00.804 --> 0:15:02.964 You can see it. It's dramatic. It's kind of like 0:15:03.004 --> 0:15:05.164 an asteroid. You're like, oh, oh, I don't want a 0:15:05.204 --> 0:15:08.724 hole in my ozone layer. Whatever the world that means. 0:15:09.524 --> 0:15:11.964 So it actually kind of demonstrates I think that's an 0:15:12.204 --> 0:15:15.724 easy way of demonstrating how like something that's dramatic and 0:15:15.764 --> 0:15:18.324 easy to observe can be much easier to communicate the 0:15:18.404 --> 0:15:22.444 risks than something that is much more difficult to visualize 0:15:22.444 --> 0:15:25.404 to quantify, and that is more nuanced and has more 0:15:25.444 --> 0:15:26.284 factors at play. 0:15:27.084 --> 0:15:29.564 You know what I cover myself with about the AI stuff. Right, 0:15:31.364 --> 0:15:36.844 So if AI accelerates to general intelligence, super intelligence produces 0:15:36.924 --> 0:15:40.044 much more rapid economic growth and like displaces people from 0:15:40.124 --> 0:15:44.164 useful work. Probably really good for live poker, right, all 0:15:44.204 --> 0:15:46.844 of a sudden, All of a sudden, you have people 0:15:46.884 --> 0:15:48.484 are really rich and they have a shit at of 0:15:48.524 --> 0:15:50.604 time on their hands. Right, it's fucking I'm going to 0:15:50.684 --> 0:15:53.364 do some great apocalyptic poker games. Maria. 0:15:53.924 --> 0:15:58.404 Well, on that note, Nate, do you want to take 0:15:58.444 --> 0:16:02.844 a break from the apocalypse and actually talk about some 0:16:03.684 --> 0:16:05.004 pre apocalyptic poker? 0:16:05.364 --> 0:16:06.004 Yes, Maria. 0:16:07.884 --> 0:16:08.924 After a quick break. 0:16:08.964 --> 0:16:09.404 We're going to. 0:16:25.204 --> 0:16:27.964 The World Series of Poker is still a ways away, right, 0:16:28.044 --> 0:16:30.444 it starts at the end of May. But we have 0:16:30.564 --> 0:16:34.004 had some news in the last few weeks, and especially 0:16:34.044 --> 0:16:37.604 in the last week. So the schedule was released, as 0:16:37.604 --> 0:16:40.484 it always is around this time of year, and Nate 0:16:40.644 --> 0:16:42.564 not everyone liked the schedule. No. 0:16:42.764 --> 0:16:47.364 Phil Hellmuth one of the most accomplished poker players in 0:16:47.444 --> 0:16:49.284 world history. He has how many World Series voices? 0:16:49.364 --> 0:16:50.404 I hil nineteen? 0:16:50.484 --> 0:16:54.364 Right, I am reliably informed by one of our wonderful 0:16:54.364 --> 0:16:58.404 producers that it's actually seventeen bracelets. WHOA and I. 0:16:58.444 --> 0:17:02.084 Had guessed nineteen. So Phil Hellmuth should be thrilled when 0:17:02.164 --> 0:17:06.084 listening to our podcast that I overestimated his bracelets by two, 0:17:06.564 --> 0:17:10.964 not one, but two, Phil, You know all time bracelet 0:17:11.044 --> 0:17:12.004 holding great. 0:17:12.964 --> 0:17:21.524 Will he reach twenty No, oh my god. I think 0:17:21.524 --> 0:17:23.884 he's a favorite to reach twenty, you know. And he's 0:17:23.884 --> 0:17:29.724 a somewhat polarizing figure. He's very I don't know, Braddy, 0:17:29.804 --> 0:17:33.124 He's the thing, the poker bratt. He once threatened to 0:17:33.324 --> 0:17:36.164 burn the effing plays down because of I know, was 0:17:36.204 --> 0:17:39.044 it bad lucker like a flow ruling? He disagreed with 0:17:39.284 --> 0:17:42.764 I forget which exactly. He has a heart of gold, 0:17:42.884 --> 0:17:48.364 some would say, but that doesn't come through in the demeanor. 0:17:48.404 --> 0:17:50.164 But one thing Phil really loves is the World chairce 0:17:50.204 --> 0:17:55.004 Poker in general, in particular the Main Event. He won 0:17:55.044 --> 0:17:57.964 the Main Event in nineteen eighty nine, one of the 0:17:57.964 --> 0:18:01.404 first kind of young whipper snapping kids to do. So 0:18:03.284 --> 0:18:06.404 you know his style. He plays kind of a small 0:18:06.404 --> 0:18:09.084 ball style. Right. So small ball means in some sense, 0:18:09.604 --> 0:18:13.604 playing smaller pots. It's also tactical. It's a patient approach. 0:18:13.604 --> 0:18:16.004 You're letting other people make mistakes, right, But it's meant 0:18:16.044 --> 0:18:21.244 to minimize variance, to prioritize long term survival in the tournament. 0:18:22.044 --> 0:18:25.724 Sometimes Nate sometimes he plays a small ball style. Phil 0:18:25.724 --> 0:18:29.124 Helmeth likes to mix it up, but please continue. 0:18:30.084 --> 0:18:31.764 Yeah, but in general, this is an event that you 0:18:31.844 --> 0:18:32.644 played to his strengths. 0:18:32.684 --> 0:18:32.844 Right. 0:18:32.884 --> 0:18:35.804 There are a lot of amateurs in the event, and 0:18:35.884 --> 0:18:41.084 those amateurs give off reads, which Phil is I'm not 0:18:41.124 --> 0:18:43.124 sure you'd call him. I mean, he's very good at 0:18:43.124 --> 0:18:45.044 picking up on like physical reads. He calls it like 0:18:45.124 --> 0:18:48.164 white magic. Right. His style is a little bit more 0:18:49.764 --> 0:18:53.484 to engage in table banter. That works to his advantage. 0:18:53.524 --> 0:18:55.364 He's played out a lot of round where you're needling people, 0:18:55.364 --> 0:18:57.044 you see how they react and you're trying to like, 0:18:57.444 --> 0:18:59.604 so probably more verbal than physical tales, although I'm sure 0:18:59.604 --> 0:19:03.644 he's actually excellent at the fyscal tales stuff too. Kind 0:19:03.684 --> 0:19:07.924 of a savant actually, and people can't understand why he's 0:19:07.964 --> 0:19:12.444 been so successful display all these seconds flaws. Right, However, 0:19:12.524 --> 0:19:14.924 I guess I guess he's running out of white magic 0:19:14.924 --> 0:19:17.484 in the tank because Phil said he's not going to 0:19:17.484 --> 0:19:22.604 play the main event because it's too long, which it's 0:19:22.644 --> 0:19:23.844 a long tournament. 0:19:23.644 --> 0:19:25.684 So let's let's talk a little bit. So the main 0:19:25.724 --> 0:19:28.684 event the World's Years of Poker Main Event, single biggest 0:19:28.724 --> 0:19:31.044 poker tournament of the year, right, and I think everyone 0:19:31.044 --> 0:19:31.924 would agree. 0:19:31.644 --> 0:19:34.164 Like this is the single most life far, there's no other. 0:19:34.324 --> 0:19:36.284 I mean, the win ten k is good, but like 0:19:36.284 --> 0:19:38.324 this is by far, this is the by far, the 0:19:38.404 --> 0:19:40.364 best tournament, biggest. 0:19:39.924 --> 0:19:44.044 Poker event of the year. And you know, it's a 0:19:44.084 --> 0:19:46.404 bucket list item for a lot of people, you know, 0:19:46.524 --> 0:19:49.804 lifetime dream to play in the main event. It's a 0:19:49.924 --> 0:19:52.604 ten thousand dollars buy in, and it has a unique 0:19:52.644 --> 0:19:56.884 structure that no other tournament has, which is two hour 0:19:57.004 --> 0:20:00.724 long levels. So that means that it's an incredibly it's 0:20:00.764 --> 0:20:05.124 a slow structure where you start very deep and people, 0:20:05.164 --> 0:20:06.844 you know, people love this and the person who wins 0:20:06.844 --> 0:20:10.924 becomes the world champion, right the champion of the world, 0:20:11.164 --> 0:20:15.284 and holds that title for one year. And it was 0:20:15.604 --> 0:20:17.924 you know, it's a really really big deal to play, 0:20:18.684 --> 0:20:21.604 and a lot of people just you know, they save 0:20:21.724 --> 0:20:26.564 up and just want their whole lives to play this event. 0:20:26.804 --> 0:20:30.924 And obviously to go deep in it to cash, to 0:20:30.964 --> 0:20:33.444 make you know, make a deep run, to make the 0:20:33.484 --> 0:20:38.284 final table to win is just absolutely the dream. And 0:20:39.724 --> 0:20:43.484 this is the event that Phil Hellmuth has always traditionally 0:20:43.524 --> 0:20:46.324 been the most excited about, and he always comes in 0:20:46.364 --> 0:20:49.884 with a huge entrance as someone who has been playing 0:20:49.964 --> 0:20:54.244 during his entrances. I actually am hoping that there will 0:20:54.284 --> 0:20:58.084 not be a Phil Hellmuth entrance this year because this 0:20:58.764 --> 0:20:59.964 really disrupts everything. 0:21:00.044 --> 0:21:00.204 Right. 0:21:00.244 --> 0:21:02.684 He likes to come in with music and dancers and 0:21:02.724 --> 0:21:05.564 he dresses up as characters. Anyway, he really you know, 0:21:05.724 --> 0:21:09.004 hams it up to the greatest extent possible for the 0:21:09.444 --> 0:21:11.724 for the main event. And now he says, I Am 0:21:11.764 --> 0:21:15.124 not going to play because I am too old, and 0:21:15.164 --> 0:21:18.444 the structure is such that we just do not have 0:21:18.684 --> 0:21:22.364 enough of a break. I'm exhausted, you know, if this 0:21:22.684 --> 0:21:25.244 should not be happening. This is not fair. Makes it 0:21:25.564 --> 0:21:29.924 to an endurance contest rather than a skilled contest, and 0:21:30.004 --> 0:21:32.444 that is not fair. So I'm not going to play. 0:21:32.764 --> 0:21:35.804 That's the essence of the Phil Hellmuth rant against the 0:21:35.804 --> 0:21:39.604 main event this year. And I have thoughts. I'm sure 0:21:39.684 --> 0:21:42.364 you have thoughts, Nate. Before we get into our thoughts, 0:21:42.724 --> 0:21:45.444 what are the odds that Phil Hellmuth actually will miss 0:21:45.444 --> 0:21:47.924 the main event? I put those at not zero, but 0:21:48.044 --> 0:21:49.204 like less than one percent. 0:21:49.404 --> 0:21:52.924 He's going to play less than one percent. Yeah, it's 0:21:52.924 --> 0:21:56.164 gonna like with their asteroids, Maria, a little little overconfident. 0:21:56.644 --> 0:21:58.644 I'm very overconfident with this one. 0:21:59.364 --> 0:22:02.764 I would say there's a I don't know. I mean, 0:22:02.764 --> 0:22:06.524 he said he wasn't going to play, right, I would Nate, 0:22:06.604 --> 0:22:09.844 how many times has Phil seed and feel to play 0:22:09.844 --> 0:22:11.724 the main event? At minus one fifty? 0:22:12.084 --> 0:22:15.764 Okay, so you still think he's going to play. That's good. 0:22:16.244 --> 0:22:18.444 I mean you're at one percent. I think you for 0:22:18.564 --> 0:22:20.844 ninety nine percent. You kind of fucked up, mikel I. 0:22:20.844 --> 0:22:23.324 I know I'm trying to anchor to you a little bit. 0:22:23.364 --> 0:22:25.484 I think we clearly have some type of bet here, 0:22:26.244 --> 0:22:26.764 We will. 0:22:27.364 --> 0:22:29.844 We can think about some type of bet here. But 0:22:30.004 --> 0:22:32.924 I just do not believe that Phil Hellmuth will skip 0:22:33.004 --> 0:22:35.244 the main event. It's just too much of a thing 0:22:35.284 --> 0:22:38.764 for him. And I think that he did this to 0:22:39.724 --> 0:22:43.164 draw attention to some important points, also to draw attention 0:22:43.204 --> 0:22:47.884 to himself. And I do, I actually do agree that 0:22:48.164 --> 0:22:54.844