1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:27,804 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:27,844 --> 00:00:30,324 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanikova and. 3 00:00:30,244 --> 00:00:34,924 Speaker 2: I'm Nate Silver. We have a very risky business cluster 4 00:00:35,084 --> 00:00:37,644 Speaker 2: of topics. I would say. We're going to talk about 5 00:00:38,844 --> 00:00:41,244 Speaker 2: an asteroid that may or may not hit Earth in 6 00:00:41,284 --> 00:00:45,244 Speaker 2: a few years. The odds are improving, our guess declining, 7 00:00:45,244 --> 00:00:46,084 Speaker 2: which is good for us. 8 00:00:46,364 --> 00:00:49,484 Speaker 1: Then we will give you a little poker drama content 9 00:00:50,044 --> 00:00:52,444 Speaker 1: with one of the world series of poker and one 10 00:00:52,484 --> 00:00:56,644 Speaker 1: of its most famous faces, Phil Hellmuth, and his decision 11 00:00:56,844 --> 00:00:59,244 Speaker 1: not to play the main event and what this means 12 00:00:59,364 --> 00:01:03,124 Speaker 1: for poker strategy, skill, mental game and all of those 13 00:01:03,124 --> 00:01:03,764 Speaker 1: fun things. 14 00:01:03,884 --> 00:01:07,524 Speaker 2: And then we'll talk about what I call rock paper scissors, 15 00:01:07,684 --> 00:01:11,644 Speaker 2: but what snobs call roch You vote, Oh. 16 00:01:11,564 --> 00:01:14,564 Speaker 1: I love that you labeled me a snob, Nate immediately, 17 00:01:21,404 --> 00:01:27,884 Speaker 1: So let's get going and start with existential risks, which 18 00:01:27,924 --> 00:01:31,284 Speaker 1: we love talking about on this podcast. And yes, we 19 00:01:31,364 --> 00:01:34,804 Speaker 1: have some going on in political events, but we are 20 00:01:34,844 --> 00:01:39,444 Speaker 1: going to be talking about asteroids falling from the sky. 21 00:01:39,924 --> 00:01:43,924 Speaker 1: So people who for people who weren't aware, a few 22 00:01:43,964 --> 00:01:48,964 Speaker 1: weeks ago, there was a story that started getting bigger 23 00:01:49,044 --> 00:01:53,964 Speaker 1: and bigger about an asteroid twenty twenty four y are 24 00:01:54,284 --> 00:02:01,684 Speaker 1: four that was on a potential collision course with the Earth. Now, 25 00:02:01,764 --> 00:02:04,964 Speaker 1: when the story first came out, the chances that it 26 00:02:05,084 --> 00:02:07,804 Speaker 1: was going to hit Earth were around two percent, and 27 00:02:07,844 --> 00:02:10,364 Speaker 1: then end of last week they had gone up to 28 00:02:10,564 --> 00:02:14,524 Speaker 1: over three percent, three point one percent, and that has 29 00:02:14,644 --> 00:02:17,484 Speaker 1: changed over the weekend. But that's when we decided that 30 00:02:17,524 --> 00:02:20,964 Speaker 1: this would be an interesting story to do, because NATE 31 00:02:21,044 --> 00:02:22,764 Speaker 1: three point one percent is not zero. 32 00:02:23,564 --> 00:02:25,924 Speaker 2: I don't believe it was ever three percent. It was 33 00:02:26,164 --> 00:02:29,084 Speaker 2: it was No, NASA was wrong. It can't have been. 34 00:02:29,764 --> 00:02:32,364 Speaker 2: It can't have been three percent before an er point 35 00:02:32,884 --> 00:02:35,924 Speaker 2: one oh point oh one seven percent now. 36 00:02:35,684 --> 00:02:39,244 Speaker 1: So yes, it's something is thinky. So let's talk about 37 00:02:39,244 --> 00:02:41,124 Speaker 1: the nature of uncertainty. 38 00:02:40,804 --> 00:02:44,084 Speaker 2: Right, No, I because I build models, right and like 39 00:02:44,564 --> 00:02:47,844 Speaker 2: so a model should change when you're toward the end 40 00:02:47,924 --> 00:02:50,644 Speaker 2: of an event. Right at the end of an NBA 41 00:02:50,724 --> 00:02:55,404 Speaker 2: basketball game, then a player missing a free throw has 42 00:02:55,564 --> 00:02:57,524 Speaker 2: a large effect on you know, the New York next 43 00:02:57,564 --> 00:03:00,364 Speaker 2: win probability. Right, we are now in twenty twenty five, 44 00:03:00,364 --> 00:03:02,804 Speaker 2: Although it feels like we're accelebrating different ways, this pertains 45 00:03:02,804 --> 00:03:04,964 Speaker 2: to an asterid that would hit the Earth in twenty 46 00:03:05,004 --> 00:03:07,924 Speaker 2: thirty two And it's a fairly linear system, right, It's like, 47 00:03:09,604 --> 00:03:12,764 Speaker 2: you know, it's just kind of basic physics and gravity 48 00:03:12,884 --> 00:03:17,364 Speaker 2: and things like that, right, So why did these calculations 49 00:03:17,444 --> 00:03:21,484 Speaker 2: like change by because like three percent and oero point zero, 50 00:03:21,564 --> 00:03:24,404 Speaker 2: let's just run it to zero point oh two percent. 51 00:03:25,204 --> 00:03:27,204 Speaker 2: They might sound similar, but that's like one two three, 52 00:03:27,204 --> 00:03:30,364 Speaker 2: that's like four orders of magnitude, like one thousand x 53 00:03:31,004 --> 00:03:32,364 Speaker 2: Like that seems to. 54 00:03:32,284 --> 00:03:35,164 Speaker 1: Me, like, so there is an answer to this. So 55 00:03:35,284 --> 00:03:38,524 Speaker 1: I'm obviously not an astrophysicist, so I looked at what 56 00:03:38,604 --> 00:03:44,444 Speaker 1: some astrophysicists said about this change. So NPR actually did 57 00:03:44,444 --> 00:03:46,884 Speaker 1: a segment where they talked to Paul Chodas, who's uh 58 00:03:47,124 --> 00:03:51,644 Speaker 1: the director of NASA's JPL Center for Aneo Studies, and 59 00:03:52,044 --> 00:03:55,124 Speaker 1: when he when he looked at this, he said, you know, 60 00:03:55,204 --> 00:03:58,484 Speaker 1: we actually often have these changes from one percent to 61 00:03:58,604 --> 00:04:01,924 Speaker 1: three percent, you know, all over the place in just 62 00:04:01,964 --> 00:04:06,164 Speaker 1: a few weeks and sometimes days. Because the observations are 63 00:04:06,204 --> 00:04:09,244 Speaker 1: incredibly challenging, and they do their best, but they're not 64 00:04:09,684 --> 00:04:13,844 Speaker 1: actually looking at the asteroid, right, they're looking they're measuring 65 00:04:13,884 --> 00:04:17,564 Speaker 1: the projections of the asteroid, and so every single night, 66 00:04:17,764 --> 00:04:21,644 Speaker 1: what they're doing is estimating where the asteroid is, and 67 00:04:21,684 --> 00:04:25,924 Speaker 1: then they're adjust to be able to make those observations. 68 00:04:26,244 --> 00:04:32,244 Speaker 1: And so it's incredibly difficult even for the strongest telescopes 69 00:04:32,364 --> 00:04:36,604 Speaker 1: that we have because, you know, because it's an asteroid, 70 00:04:36,844 --> 00:04:38,844 Speaker 1: and as he said, you know, they actually need to 71 00:04:39,164 --> 00:04:41,324 Speaker 1: try to build in all of these projections, all of 72 00:04:41,324 --> 00:04:44,324 Speaker 1: these assumptions to try to catch it before it moves 73 00:04:44,364 --> 00:04:47,004 Speaker 1: out of range, because it will move out of range 74 00:04:47,004 --> 00:04:48,724 Speaker 1: and then they won't be able to make any more 75 00:04:48,764 --> 00:04:52,564 Speaker 1: observations for the next few years. And so that's why 76 00:04:52,884 --> 00:04:55,844 Speaker 1: this can change so much, not because there was something 77 00:04:55,844 --> 00:04:58,804 Speaker 1: wrong with the model, but just because unlike a basketball team, 78 00:04:58,844 --> 00:05:00,684 Speaker 1: where you know, you can see the team, you can 79 00:05:00,724 --> 00:05:03,764 Speaker 1: see the players, everything is here. Because of the nature 80 00:05:03,804 --> 00:05:07,204 Speaker 1: of the observations, it's actually incredibly difficult to get the data. 81 00:05:07,284 --> 00:05:09,764 Speaker 1: And they do their best, but then it's like with 82 00:05:09,884 --> 00:05:13,284 Speaker 1: any data analysis, you know, when you are sampling and 83 00:05:13,324 --> 00:05:15,284 Speaker 1: then you figure out, okay, no, we need to change 84 00:05:15,324 --> 00:05:17,644 Speaker 1: the parameters. We need to change it again. And so 85 00:05:17,724 --> 00:05:20,404 Speaker 1: they're doing their best in a very very limited window 86 00:05:20,444 --> 00:05:22,524 Speaker 1: of time, which is the time when they can actually 87 00:05:22,564 --> 00:05:25,804 Speaker 1: make these observations. It's a critical period, but. 88 00:05:25,764 --> 00:05:28,844 Speaker 2: They have seven years look I love astrophysicists. I had 89 00:05:28,884 --> 00:05:30,724 Speaker 2: an uncle who worked at jp AL, that's the Jet 90 00:05:30,764 --> 00:05:33,684 Speaker 2: Propulsion Laboratory. But like, I think it is the model, right, 91 00:05:33,684 --> 00:05:36,644 Speaker 2: It's not like this asteroid hit a piece of debris 92 00:05:37,724 --> 00:05:41,244 Speaker 2: and is now on a different trajectory, right, I know. 93 00:05:41,284 --> 00:05:45,204 Speaker 2: I mean there's like kind of intrinsic model uncertainty, right. 94 00:05:45,284 --> 00:05:48,644 Speaker 2: One of the reasons that AI existential risk is hard 95 00:05:48,644 --> 00:05:50,564 Speaker 2: to measures because it kind of is not actually a 96 00:05:50,684 --> 00:05:55,004 Speaker 2: very well precedented situation, and various reasons, right, And like, 97 00:05:55,684 --> 00:05:58,044 Speaker 2: in some ways, the fact that it's unprecedented, it might 98 00:05:58,084 --> 00:06:01,284 Speaker 2: make you mix the variance higher and therefore increases the 99 00:06:01,364 --> 00:06:04,884 Speaker 2: risk of doom in some ways. But like, I don't know, 100 00:06:04,924 --> 00:06:10,764 Speaker 2: I think like physical uncertainty versus model uncertainty, I think 101 00:06:10,884 --> 00:06:14,564 Speaker 2: is a slippery concept, but one that I don't know. 102 00:06:14,604 --> 00:06:16,324 Speaker 2: I don't know if we need like a big press 103 00:06:17,364 --> 00:06:23,004 Speaker 2: panic where if it's necessarily even helpful to put a 104 00:06:23,124 --> 00:06:26,204 Speaker 2: number on something, because again, three percent versus o two 105 00:06:26,244 --> 00:06:28,924 Speaker 2: percent is a big change, right order of course. 106 00:06:28,764 --> 00:06:32,924 Speaker 1: Right, so three percent be worried point oh whatever percent, No, 107 00:06:33,164 --> 00:06:36,324 Speaker 1: we're no longer worried at all. As poker players, we 108 00:06:36,364 --> 00:06:37,924 Speaker 1: know that three percent equals worry. 109 00:06:38,364 --> 00:06:40,964 Speaker 2: Three percent is a fucking more than a two hour, right, 110 00:06:40,964 --> 00:06:43,444 Speaker 2: that shit happens. Yeah. 111 00:06:43,524 --> 00:06:45,644 Speaker 1: Man, when it was that three I was like, oh shit, 112 00:06:45,764 --> 00:06:47,604 Speaker 1: And then when it fell, I was like, Okay, We're good. 113 00:06:48,564 --> 00:06:52,444 Speaker 2: I mean my p doom from AI is higher than 114 00:06:52,484 --> 00:06:54,284 Speaker 2: three percent. So like, I'm kind of feel like I'm 115 00:06:54,284 --> 00:06:57,524 Speaker 2: living in a cloud anyway, right, And this is like 116 00:06:57,604 --> 00:06:59,964 Speaker 2: not an existential risk, is it? No? 117 00:06:59,964 --> 00:07:03,884 Speaker 1: No, So this particular, this particular asteroid was what is 118 00:07:03,964 --> 00:07:10,484 Speaker 1: called a city killer category. So that is basically, if 119 00:07:10,484 --> 00:07:12,764 Speaker 1: it falls over city, right, if it falls over New York, 120 00:07:12,804 --> 00:07:16,884 Speaker 1: new York's gone. But if it falls you know, somewhere 121 00:07:17,244 --> 00:07:21,364 Speaker 1: in the ocean. You know, if it falls somewhere in Siberia, 122 00:07:21,404 --> 00:07:24,524 Speaker 1: which is where the last asteroid that was approximately the 123 00:07:24,644 --> 00:07:28,124 Speaker 1: size fell, you're relatively fine. Of course, there's going to 124 00:07:28,164 --> 00:07:34,124 Speaker 1: be a lot of impact. And it is projected that 125 00:07:34,244 --> 00:07:37,604 Speaker 1: if this asteroid had actually hit the Earth, it would 126 00:07:37,604 --> 00:07:40,884 Speaker 1: be more than five hundred times the power of the 127 00:07:41,004 --> 00:07:44,444 Speaker 1: Hiroshima bomb. So it depends on where it is. But 128 00:07:44,564 --> 00:07:48,364 Speaker 1: this is not a dinosaur level asteroid that's going to 129 00:07:48,844 --> 00:07:50,204 Speaker 1: you know, wipe out seventy five percent. 130 00:07:50,244 --> 00:07:52,444 Speaker 2: There's a lot of Siberia, Maria. There's a lot more 131 00:07:52,484 --> 00:07:55,924 Speaker 2: Siberia than New York. And you know what is it 132 00:07:57,284 --> 00:08:00,724 Speaker 2: covered by oceans? So bad news for the whales, right, 133 00:08:00,804 --> 00:08:01,404 Speaker 2: But like. 134 00:08:01,924 --> 00:08:04,644 Speaker 1: But even when it was at its worst, scientists were saying, 135 00:08:04,684 --> 00:08:06,804 Speaker 1: you know, like even if it's headed you know, obviously 136 00:08:06,844 --> 00:08:08,844 Speaker 1: it would be horrific if it were headed for New 137 00:08:08,924 --> 00:08:13,844 Speaker 1: York or any major city, but they would know with 138 00:08:14,284 --> 00:08:19,084 Speaker 1: enough lead time that if otherwise they couldn't change the trajectory, 139 00:08:19,244 --> 00:08:21,844 Speaker 1: which they probably could, by the way, So assuming they 140 00:08:21,884 --> 00:08:25,004 Speaker 1: were completely unsuccessful in the asteroid were actually going to 141 00:08:25,604 --> 00:08:28,164 Speaker 1: hit let's just say New York, they would have enough 142 00:08:28,204 --> 00:08:30,724 Speaker 1: lead time where they'd be able to evacuate everyone. Obviously 143 00:08:30,764 --> 00:08:36,404 Speaker 1: still not ideal, but no one, you know, presumably presumably 144 00:08:36,444 --> 00:08:38,924 Speaker 1: it would be under control. But let's let's talk a 145 00:08:38,924 --> 00:08:42,124 Speaker 1: little bit just in general, you know, how how we 146 00:08:42,164 --> 00:08:44,884 Speaker 1: should think about these sorts of things. Obviously it does 147 00:08:45,004 --> 00:08:49,564 Speaker 1: matter when we're talking about small probabilities of events with 148 00:08:50,604 --> 00:08:54,244 Speaker 1: very high potential costs. You know, it's an interesting it's 149 00:08:54,284 --> 00:08:58,324 Speaker 1: an interesting just lens to try to figure out, Okay, 150 00:08:58,444 --> 00:09:00,884 Speaker 1: how do we evaluate these risks? And we've talked about 151 00:09:00,924 --> 00:09:04,724 Speaker 1: this before with p doom with E with AI, and 152 00:09:05,004 --> 00:09:09,204 Speaker 1: I think that now it's incredibly important for people to 153 00:09:09,444 --> 00:09:12,084 Speaker 1: understand how to look at these small probabilities because we 154 00:09:12,124 --> 00:09:14,284 Speaker 1: have a lot of them. Right, There's a lot of uncertainty, 155 00:09:14,324 --> 00:09:15,684 Speaker 1: and there are a lot of things in the news, 156 00:09:16,044 --> 00:09:19,244 Speaker 1: not just with AI and asteroids, where it's important to 157 00:09:19,324 --> 00:09:22,364 Speaker 1: understand these numbers. So how do we look at it 158 00:09:22,404 --> 00:09:24,684 Speaker 1: and say, Okay, you know, why are we worried about 159 00:09:24,684 --> 00:09:29,524 Speaker 1: three percent? Why aren't we worried about point oh two percent? Right? Like, 160 00:09:29,564 --> 00:09:31,884 Speaker 1: what are the thresholds? How do you think about it? 161 00:09:32,284 --> 00:09:34,964 Speaker 1: And kind of how should we think about it when 162 00:09:35,004 --> 00:09:38,724 Speaker 1: we have an outsized potential impact despite a small chance 163 00:09:38,804 --> 00:09:39,644 Speaker 1: of something happening. 164 00:09:40,524 --> 00:09:43,604 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean maybe you can calculate an expected value 165 00:09:43,684 --> 00:09:46,924 Speaker 2: terms of course, I'd say that as a poker player 166 00:09:47,124 --> 00:09:51,204 Speaker 2: kind of the theme of the show. Absolutely, Let's say 167 00:09:51,324 --> 00:09:56,804 Speaker 2: that there is a five percent chance that if it hits, 168 00:09:56,844 --> 00:10:02,084 Speaker 2: it wipes out a metro region of like ten million people. 169 00:10:03,164 --> 00:10:06,724 Speaker 2: Multiply that by like three percent. What's the math here? 170 00:10:06,804 --> 00:10:10,164 Speaker 2: Let me let me bring up the old trustee Google calculator. 171 00:10:10,884 --> 00:10:11,964 Speaker 1: Let's do it. 172 00:10:11,964 --> 00:10:14,844 Speaker 2: It's three hundred thousand people, right, But that assumes the 173 00:10:14,844 --> 00:10:16,764 Speaker 2: astro would always kill ten mini people. Let's say they's 174 00:10:16,764 --> 00:10:19,844 Speaker 2: just an zero point five percent chance of that. Sorry, 175 00:10:19,924 --> 00:10:23,004 Speaker 2: I'm actually not very good at using a calculator, apparently. 176 00:10:24,684 --> 00:10:28,004 Speaker 1: Things that we learn on the Risky Business podcast date. 177 00:10:28,124 --> 00:10:31,604 Speaker 1: I had no idea that calculators were not a strength 178 00:10:31,604 --> 00:10:32,284 Speaker 1: of yours. 179 00:10:32,764 --> 00:10:34,684 Speaker 2: I do you want to know how many browser windows 180 00:10:34,684 --> 00:10:37,724 Speaker 2: I have opened? Maria? No, No, I probably don't. 181 00:10:37,884 --> 00:10:39,764 Speaker 1: I'd probably have a heart attack in the middle of tay. 182 00:10:40,044 --> 00:10:43,524 Speaker 2: Okay, So that is, like, that's an expected value loss 183 00:10:43,564 --> 00:10:47,844 Speaker 2: of fifteen thousand people. Now, okay, we can like displace them, 184 00:10:49,044 --> 00:10:52,964 Speaker 2: we can send some rockets up there, we can nuke 185 00:10:53,004 --> 00:10:55,524 Speaker 2: the asteroid. Might not be a good idea, but who knows, right, 186 00:10:57,404 --> 00:11:00,564 Speaker 2: But like that seems actually fairly rational that like a 187 00:11:00,644 --> 00:11:06,364 Speaker 2: fifteen thousand person expected displacement let's call it event, is 188 00:11:06,444 --> 00:11:09,324 Speaker 2: worth planning for. Right, Yeah, that's now if you reduced 189 00:11:09,604 --> 00:11:14,644 Speaker 2: by four then whatever, you know, whatever, whatever, Like not 190 00:11:14,724 --> 00:11:16,444 Speaker 2: that I don't care about it, like fifteen people. Like 191 00:11:16,444 --> 00:11:17,964 Speaker 2: not that I don't care about fifteen people, but like 192 00:11:18,524 --> 00:11:21,004 Speaker 2: we kind of brush aside risks like that. 193 00:11:21,084 --> 00:11:23,964 Speaker 1: All the all the time. Yeah, absolutely, I think that's 194 00:11:24,044 --> 00:11:26,884 Speaker 1: actually that's an interesting way of looking at it. And 195 00:11:26,924 --> 00:11:28,844 Speaker 1: I think that that makes sense. And by the way, 196 00:11:28,884 --> 00:11:31,324 Speaker 1: that is the way that a lot of you know, 197 00:11:31,364 --> 00:11:34,004 Speaker 1: insurance companies, et cetera look at things, right, And we've 198 00:11:34,044 --> 00:11:36,444 Speaker 1: talked about like the cost of a human life, right, 199 00:11:36,484 --> 00:11:39,604 Speaker 1: what's the risk premium you need to take on to 200 00:11:39,644 --> 00:11:43,124 Speaker 1: take on risky jobs. So this, this type of calculation 201 00:11:43,204 --> 00:11:45,964 Speaker 1: where you're looking at lives is actually one that a 202 00:11:46,004 --> 00:11:49,444 Speaker 1: lot of industries, a lot of industries look at. Fifteen 203 00:11:49,484 --> 00:11:52,804 Speaker 1: thousand is huge. And now imagine this is just the 204 00:11:52,844 --> 00:11:56,244 Speaker 1: life calculation. If we're doing a full expected value calculation, 205 00:11:56,284 --> 00:11:58,524 Speaker 1: we'd also have to look at, you know, the loss 206 00:11:58,564 --> 00:12:03,284 Speaker 1: of property, loss of infrastructure. Let's assume that some major 207 00:12:03,484 --> 00:12:06,804 Speaker 1: major things are actually taken off the grid, right, like 208 00:12:06,924 --> 00:12:09,924 Speaker 1: what is the overall cost? And now we are talking 209 00:12:09,964 --> 00:12:13,124 Speaker 1: not just human lives, but there's a huge economic cost 210 00:12:13,804 --> 00:12:17,404 Speaker 1: as well. So it becomes very complicated and you realize, okay, yeah, 211 00:12:17,404 --> 00:12:20,404 Speaker 1: we should probably be worried about something like that and 212 00:12:20,484 --> 00:12:23,604 Speaker 1: about the risk of something like that happening. And that's 213 00:12:23,644 --> 00:12:28,044 Speaker 1: when you realize that, you know, small numbers get multiplied 214 00:12:28,084 --> 00:12:30,964 Speaker 1: out right, and they become much the impact becomes much 215 00:12:31,044 --> 00:12:32,804 Speaker 1: larger when it's an event like this. 216 00:12:33,644 --> 00:12:38,124 Speaker 2: It's also kind of very visible. I'd guess you'd say, 217 00:12:38,204 --> 00:12:42,124 Speaker 2: you know what I mean, like like it's going to 218 00:12:42,204 --> 00:12:44,724 Speaker 2: slowly approach the Earth, and you know, I mean like 219 00:12:45,324 --> 00:12:47,804 Speaker 2: which you know, Usually these more legible, tangible risks are 220 00:12:47,844 --> 00:12:51,004 Speaker 2: actually things that society is better than dealing with. And 221 00:12:51,044 --> 00:12:54,004 Speaker 2: it's very linear, right, Whereas, like if you read some 222 00:12:54,164 --> 00:12:59,644 Speaker 2: scary AI scenarios, there might be some morning signs of 223 00:12:59,804 --> 00:13:04,724 Speaker 2: AI being more becoming more adversarial or smarter or whatever else. 224 00:13:05,964 --> 00:13:08,004 Speaker 2: But it could just be that AI hatches a very 225 00:13:09,124 --> 00:13:13,204 Speaker 2: very well kept secret plan to like destroy its human masters, right, 226 00:13:14,404 --> 00:13:17,684 Speaker 2: you know, and that happens very efficiently quote unquote and 227 00:13:17,764 --> 00:13:19,884 Speaker 2: very quickly, or a nuclear war. I mean, I remember 228 00:13:19,924 --> 00:13:24,404 Speaker 2: it was my fortieth birthday on January thirteenth, nineteen to god, 229 00:13:24,444 --> 00:13:28,364 Speaker 2: I'm dumb twenty eighteen. Right when the alert came out, I. 230 00:13:28,244 --> 00:13:30,884 Speaker 1: Was like, wait, wait, you did not try forty and 231 00:13:30,964 --> 00:13:34,004 Speaker 1: nineteen something, or you look great twenty eighteen? 232 00:13:34,964 --> 00:13:38,804 Speaker 2: Is that right? Yeah? I'm showing my age. When the 233 00:13:38,804 --> 00:13:40,844 Speaker 2: alert came out saying, oh, this is not a drill. 234 00:13:40,884 --> 00:13:44,084 Speaker 2: There is a nuclear ICBM inbound toward Hawaii. I'm like, 235 00:13:44,364 --> 00:13:47,044 Speaker 2: you know, I'm not sure if I feel greater. I 236 00:13:47,044 --> 00:13:49,644 Speaker 2: have my birthday party on this day. It turned out 237 00:13:49,684 --> 00:13:51,684 Speaker 2: to be a false alarm again, right, but like, but 238 00:13:51,764 --> 00:13:54,524 Speaker 2: this is something we would have time to adjust to. 239 00:13:54,764 --> 00:13:57,084 Speaker 2: Argument that makes it kind of better to actually moditor 240 00:13:57,284 --> 00:13:58,644 Speaker 2: these situations. 241 00:13:59,044 --> 00:14:02,284 Speaker 1: I think that's Actually that's a really crucial point when 242 00:14:02,284 --> 00:14:05,524 Speaker 1: we're talking about risk. It's much easier for the human 243 00:14:05,564 --> 00:14:10,644 Speaker 1: mind to latch onto something that's tangible and that's easy 244 00:14:10,684 --> 00:14:15,284 Speaker 1: to observe, as opposed to something that's kind of more uncertain, 245 00:14:15,564 --> 00:14:18,004 Speaker 1: that can be kind of more under the radar, and 246 00:14:18,044 --> 00:14:20,764 Speaker 1: those risks are often much more dangerous, but it's much 247 00:14:20,804 --> 00:14:24,404 Speaker 1: more difficult to convince people that it's dangerous because it's 248 00:14:24,564 --> 00:14:28,804 Speaker 1: not something that you can easily look and uh and 249 00:14:29,284 --> 00:14:31,804 Speaker 1: quantify and say oh uh huh, yep, we see that 250 00:14:31,884 --> 00:14:35,164 Speaker 1: it has gotten gone from this to this. An interesting 251 00:14:35,204 --> 00:14:38,684 Speaker 1: example of this just you know, going going a little 252 00:14:38,684 --> 00:14:41,084 Speaker 1: bit back in time, you know, when you're talking about 253 00:14:41,124 --> 00:14:44,764 Speaker 1: climate change versus the ozone layer, right when when it 254 00:14:44,804 --> 00:14:48,244 Speaker 1: was a hole in the ozone layer that shit, people 255 00:14:48,284 --> 00:14:50,084 Speaker 1: banded together and we're like, oh my god, hole in 256 00:14:50,124 --> 00:14:54,044 Speaker 1: the ozone layer. There was great collective action and like 257 00:14:55,404 --> 00:14:57,844 Speaker 1: we did it right, Like we actually addressed that really 258 00:14:57,924 --> 00:15:00,764 Speaker 1: quickly because it's you know, hole in the ozone layer. 259 00:15:00,804 --> 00:15:02,964 Speaker 1: You can see it. It's dramatic. It's kind of like 260 00:15:03,004 --> 00:15:05,164 Speaker 1: an asteroid. You're like, oh, oh, I don't want a 261 00:15:05,204 --> 00:15:08,724 Speaker 1: hole in my ozone layer. Whatever the world that means. 262 00:15:09,524 --> 00:15:11,964 Speaker 1: So it actually kind of demonstrates I think that's an 263 00:15:12,204 --> 00:15:15,724 Speaker 1: easy way of demonstrating how like something that's dramatic and 264 00:15:15,764 --> 00:15:18,324 Speaker 1: easy to observe can be much easier to communicate the 265 00:15:18,404 --> 00:15:22,444 Speaker 1: risks than something that is much more difficult to visualize 266 00:15:22,444 --> 00:15:25,404 Speaker 1: to quantify, and that is more nuanced and has more 267 00:15:25,444 --> 00:15:26,284 Speaker 1: factors at play. 268 00:15:27,084 --> 00:15:29,564 Speaker 2: You know what I cover myself with about the AI stuff. Right, 269 00:15:31,364 --> 00:15:36,844 Speaker 2: So if AI accelerates to general intelligence, super intelligence produces 270 00:15:36,924 --> 00:15:40,044 Speaker 2: much more rapid economic growth and like displaces people from 271 00:15:40,124 --> 00:15:44,164 Speaker 2: useful work. Probably really good for live poker, right, all 272 00:15:44,204 --> 00:15:46,844 Speaker 2: of a sudden, All of a sudden, you have people 273 00:15:46,884 --> 00:15:48,484 Speaker 2: are really rich and they have a shit at of 274 00:15:48,524 --> 00:15:50,604 Speaker 2: time on their hands. Right, it's fucking I'm going to 275 00:15:50,684 --> 00:15:53,364 Speaker 2: do some great apocalyptic poker games. Maria. 276 00:15:53,924 --> 00:15:58,404 Speaker 1: Well, on that note, Nate, do you want to take 277 00:15:58,444 --> 00:16:02,844 Speaker 1: a break from the apocalypse and actually talk about some 278 00:16:03,684 --> 00:16:05,004 Speaker 1: pre apocalyptic poker? 279 00:16:05,364 --> 00:16:06,004 Speaker 2: Yes, Maria. 280 00:16:07,884 --> 00:16:08,924 Speaker 1: After a quick break. 281 00:16:08,964 --> 00:16:09,404 Speaker 2: We're going to. 282 00:16:25,204 --> 00:16:27,964 Speaker 1: The World Series of Poker is still a ways away, right, 283 00:16:28,044 --> 00:16:30,444 Speaker 1: it starts at the end of May. But we have 284 00:16:30,564 --> 00:16:34,004 Speaker 1: had some news in the last few weeks, and especially 285 00:16:34,044 --> 00:16:37,604 Speaker 1: in the last week. So the schedule was released, as 286 00:16:37,604 --> 00:16:40,484 Speaker 1: it always is around this time of year, and Nate 287 00:16:40,644 --> 00:16:42,564 Speaker 1: not everyone liked the schedule. No. 288 00:16:42,764 --> 00:16:47,364 Speaker 2: Phil Hellmuth one of the most accomplished poker players in 289 00:16:47,444 --> 00:16:49,284 Speaker 2: world history. He has how many World Series voices? 290 00:16:49,364 --> 00:16:50,404 Speaker 1: I hil nineteen? 291 00:16:50,484 --> 00:16:54,364 Speaker 2: Right, I am reliably informed by one of our wonderful 292 00:16:54,364 --> 00:16:58,404 Speaker 2: producers that it's actually seventeen bracelets. WHOA and I. 293 00:16:58,444 --> 00:17:02,084 Speaker 1: Had guessed nineteen. So Phil Hellmuth should be thrilled when 294 00:17:02,164 --> 00:17:06,084 Speaker 1: listening to our podcast that I overestimated his bracelets by two, 295 00:17:06,564 --> 00:17:10,964 Speaker 1: not one, but two, Phil, You know all time bracelet 296 00:17:11,044 --> 00:17:12,004 Speaker 1: holding great. 297 00:17:12,964 --> 00:17:21,524 Speaker 2: Will he reach twenty No, oh my god. I think 298 00:17:21,524 --> 00:17:23,884 Speaker 2: he's a favorite to reach twenty, you know. And he's 299 00:17:23,884 --> 00:17:29,724 Speaker 2: a somewhat polarizing figure. He's very I don't know, Braddy, 300 00:17:29,804 --> 00:17:33,124 Speaker 2: He's the thing, the poker bratt. He once threatened to 301 00:17:33,324 --> 00:17:36,164 Speaker 2: burn the effing plays down because of I know, was 302 00:17:36,204 --> 00:17:39,044 Speaker 2: it bad lucker like a flow ruling? He disagreed with 303 00:17:39,284 --> 00:17:42,764 Speaker 2: I forget which exactly. He has a heart of gold, 304 00:17:42,884 --> 00:17:48,364 Speaker 2: some would say, but that doesn't come through in the demeanor. 305 00:17:48,404 --> 00:17:50,164 Speaker 2: But one thing Phil really loves is the World chairce 306 00:17:50,204 --> 00:17:55,004 Speaker 2: Poker in general, in particular the Main Event. He won 307 00:17:55,044 --> 00:17:57,964 Speaker 2: the Main Event in nineteen eighty nine, one of the 308 00:17:57,964 --> 00:18:01,404 Speaker 2: first kind of young whipper snapping kids to do. So 309 00:18:03,284 --> 00:18:06,404 Speaker 2: you know his style. He plays kind of a small 310 00:18:06,404 --> 00:18:09,084 Speaker 2: ball style. Right. So small ball means in some sense, 311 00:18:09,604 --> 00:18:13,604 Speaker 2: playing smaller pots. It's also tactical. It's a patient approach. 312 00:18:13,604 --> 00:18:16,004 Speaker 2: You're letting other people make mistakes, right, But it's meant 313 00:18:16,044 --> 00:18:21,244 Speaker 2: to minimize variance, to prioritize long term survival in the tournament. 314 00:18:22,044 --> 00:18:25,724 Speaker 1: Sometimes Nate sometimes he plays a small ball style. Phil 315 00:18:25,724 --> 00:18:29,124 Speaker 1: Helmeth likes to mix it up, but please continue. 316 00:18:30,084 --> 00:18:31,764 Speaker 2: Yeah, but in general, this is an event that you 317 00:18:31,844 --> 00:18:32,644 Speaker 2: played to his strengths. 318 00:18:32,684 --> 00:18:32,844 Speaker 1: Right. 319 00:18:32,884 --> 00:18:35,804 Speaker 2: There are a lot of amateurs in the event, and 320 00:18:35,884 --> 00:18:41,084 Speaker 2: those amateurs give off reads, which Phil is I'm not 321 00:18:41,124 --> 00:18:43,124 Speaker 2: sure you'd call him. I mean, he's very good at 322 00:18:43,124 --> 00:18:45,044 Speaker 2: picking up on like physical reads. He calls it like 323 00:18:45,124 --> 00:18:48,164 Speaker 2: white magic. Right. His style is a little bit more 324 00:18:49,764 --> 00:18:53,484 Speaker 2: to engage in table banter. That works to his advantage. 325 00:18:53,524 --> 00:18:55,364 Speaker 2: He's played out a lot of round where you're needling people, 326 00:18:55,364 --> 00:18:57,044 Speaker 2: you see how they react and you're trying to like, 327 00:18:57,444 --> 00:18:59,604 Speaker 2: so probably more verbal than physical tales, although I'm sure 328 00:18:59,604 --> 00:19:03,644 Speaker 2: he's actually excellent at the fyscal tales stuff too. Kind 329 00:19:03,684 --> 00:19:07,924 Speaker 2: of a savant actually, and people can't understand why he's 330 00:19:07,964 --> 00:19:12,444 Speaker 2: been so successful display all these seconds flaws. Right, However, 331 00:19:12,524 --> 00:19:14,924 Speaker 2: I guess I guess he's running out of white magic 332 00:19:14,924 --> 00:19:17,484 Speaker 2: in the tank because Phil said he's not going to 333 00:19:17,484 --> 00:19:22,604 Speaker 2: play the main event because it's too long, which it's 334 00:19:22,644 --> 00:19:23,844 Speaker 2: a long tournament. 335 00:19:23,644 --> 00:19:25,684 Speaker 1: So let's let's talk a little bit. So the main 336 00:19:25,724 --> 00:19:28,684 Speaker 1: event the World's Years of Poker Main Event, single biggest 337 00:19:28,724 --> 00:19:31,044 Speaker 1: poker tournament of the year, right, and I think everyone 338 00:19:31,044 --> 00:19:31,924 Speaker 1: would agree. 339 00:19:31,644 --> 00:19:34,164 Speaker 2: Like this is the single most life far, there's no other. 340 00:19:34,324 --> 00:19:36,284 Speaker 2: I mean, the win ten k is good, but like 341 00:19:36,284 --> 00:19:38,324 Speaker 2: this is by far, this is the by far, the 342 00:19:38,404 --> 00:19:40,364 Speaker 2: best tournament, biggest. 343 00:19:39,924 --> 00:19:44,044 Speaker 1: Poker event of the year. And you know, it's a 344 00:19:44,084 --> 00:19:46,404 Speaker 1: bucket list item for a lot of people, you know, 345 00:19:46,524 --> 00:19:49,804 Speaker 1: lifetime dream to play in the main event. It's a 346 00:19:49,924 --> 00:19:52,604 Speaker 1: ten thousand dollars buy in, and it has a unique 347 00:19:52,644 --> 00:19:56,884 Speaker 1: structure that no other tournament has, which is two hour 348 00:19:57,004 --> 00:20:00,724 Speaker 1: long levels. So that means that it's an incredibly it's 349 00:20:00,764 --> 00:20:05,124 Speaker 1: a slow structure where you start very deep and people, 350 00:20:05,164 --> 00:20:06,844 Speaker 1: you know, people love this and the person who wins 351 00:20:06,844 --> 00:20:10,924 Speaker 1: becomes the world champion, right the champion of the world, 352 00:20:11,164 --> 00:20:15,284 Speaker 1: and holds that title for one year. And it was 353 00:20:15,604 --> 00:20:17,924 Speaker 1: you know, it's a really really big deal to play, 354 00:20:18,684 --> 00:20:21,604 Speaker 1: and a lot of people just you know, they save 355 00:20:21,724 --> 00:20:26,564 Speaker 1: up and just want their whole lives to play this event. 356 00:20:26,804 --> 00:20:30,924 Speaker 1: And obviously to go deep in it to cash, to 357 00:20:30,964 --> 00:20:33,444 Speaker 1: make you know, make a deep run, to make the 358 00:20:33,484 --> 00:20:38,284 Speaker 1: final table to win is just absolutely the dream. And 359 00:20:39,724 --> 00:20:43,484 Speaker 1: this is the event that Phil Hellmuth has always traditionally 360 00:20:43,524 --> 00:20:46,324 Speaker 1: been the most excited about, and he always comes in 361 00:20:46,364 --> 00:20:49,884 Speaker 1: with a huge entrance as someone who has been playing 362 00:20:49,964 --> 00:20:54,244 Speaker 1: during his entrances. I actually am hoping that there will 363 00:20:54,284 --> 00:20:58,084 Speaker 1: not be a Phil Hellmuth entrance this year because this 364 00:20:58,764 --> 00:20:59,964 Speaker 1: really disrupts everything. 365 00:21:00,044 --> 00:21:00,204 Speaker 2: Right. 366 00:21:00,244 --> 00:21:02,684 Speaker 1: He likes to come in with music and dancers and 367 00:21:02,724 --> 00:21:05,564 Speaker 1: he dresses up as characters. Anyway, he really you know, 368 00:21:05,724 --> 00:21:09,004 Speaker 1: hams it up to the greatest extent possible for the 369 00:21:09,444 --> 00:21:11,724 Speaker 1: for the main event. And now he says, I Am 370 00:21:11,764 --> 00:21:15,124 Speaker 1: not going to play because I am too old, and 371 00:21:15,164 --> 00:21:18,444 Speaker 1: the structure is such that we just do not have 372 00:21:18,684 --> 00:21:22,364 Speaker 1: enough of a break. I'm exhausted, you know, if this 373 00:21:22,684 --> 00:21:25,244 Speaker 1: should not be happening. This is not fair. Makes it 374 00:21:25,564 --> 00:21:29,924 Speaker 1: to an endurance contest rather than a skilled contest, and 375 00:21:30,004 --> 00:21:32,444 Speaker 1: that is not fair. So I'm not going to play. 376 00:21:32,764 --> 00:21:35,804 Speaker 1: That's the essence of the Phil Hellmuth rant against the 377 00:21:35,804 --> 00:21:39,604 Speaker 1: main event this year. And I have thoughts. I'm sure 378 00:21:39,684 --> 00:21:42,364 Speaker 1: you have thoughts, Nate. Before we get into our thoughts, 379 00:21:42,724 --> 00:21:45,444 Speaker 1: what are the odds that Phil Hellmuth actually will miss 380 00:21:45,444 --> 00:21:47,924 Speaker 1: the main event? I put those at not zero, but 381 00:21:48,044 --> 00:21:49,204 Speaker 1: like less than one percent. 382 00:21:49,404 --> 00:21:52,924 Speaker 2: He's going to play less than one percent. Yeah, it's 383 00:21:52,924 --> 00:21:56,164 Speaker 2: gonna like with their asteroids, Maria, a little little overconfident. 384 00:21:56,644 --> 00:21:58,644 Speaker 1: I'm very overconfident with this one. 385 00:21:59,364 --> 00:22:02,764 Speaker 2: I would say there's a I don't know. I mean, 386 00:22:02,764 --> 00:22:06,524 Speaker 2: he said he wasn't going to play, right, I would Nate, 387 00:22:06,604 --> 00:22:09,844 Speaker 2: how many times has Phil seed and feel to play 388 00:22:09,844 --> 00:22:11,724 Speaker 2: the main event? At minus one fifty? 389 00:22:12,084 --> 00:22:15,764 Speaker 1: Okay, so you still think he's going to play. That's good. 390 00:22:16,244 --> 00:22:18,444 Speaker 2: I mean you're at one percent. I think you for 391 00:22:18,564 --> 00:22:20,844 Speaker 2: ninety nine percent. You kind of fucked up, mikel I. 392 00:22:20,844 --> 00:22:23,324 Speaker 2: I know I'm trying to anchor to you a little bit. 393 00:22:23,364 --> 00:22:25,484 Speaker 2: I think we clearly have some type of bet here, 394 00:22:26,244 --> 00:22:26,764 Speaker 2: We will. 395 00:22:27,364 --> 00:22:29,844 Speaker 1: We can think about some type of bet here. But 396 00:22:30,004 --> 00:22:32,924 Speaker 1: I just do not believe that Phil Hellmuth will skip 397 00:22:33,004 --> 00:22:35,244 Speaker 1: the main event. It's just too much of a thing 398 00:22:35,284 --> 00:22:38,764 Speaker 1: for him. And I think that he did this to 399 00:22:39,724 --> 00:22:43,164 Speaker 1: draw attention to some important points, also to draw attention 400 00:22:43,204 --> 00:22:47,884 Speaker 1: to himself. And I do, I actually do agree that 401 00:22:48,164 --> 00:22:54,844 Speaker 1: a lot of structures these days do make it very 402 00:22:54,844 --> 00:22:58,564 Speaker 1: difficult to play your best game. You know, there should 403 00:22:58,564 --> 00:23:02,324 Speaker 1: be changes made, Like I think all tournaments I completely 404 00:23:02,324 --> 00:23:05,804 Speaker 1: agree with this, should have like a twelve hour period 405 00:23:05,884 --> 00:23:09,324 Speaker 1: between playing, right from when you bag your chips to 406 00:23:09,444 --> 00:23:12,564 Speaker 1: when you have to sit back down. It is totally 407 00:23:12,604 --> 00:23:14,684 Speaker 1: not okay to bag your chips at three am and 408 00:23:14,724 --> 00:23:17,404 Speaker 1: to have to restart at eleven, which happens all the time, 409 00:23:17,684 --> 00:23:21,004 Speaker 1: so that I agree with. I'm assuming you agree with 410 00:23:21,004 --> 00:23:21,524 Speaker 1: that as well. 411 00:23:21,964 --> 00:23:24,044 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean do the well, I think I 412 00:23:24,084 --> 00:23:26,964 Speaker 2: agree with the provisional mentioned later, right, But yeah, let's 413 00:23:26,964 --> 00:23:29,404 Speaker 2: say you bag your chips at three and then you 414 00:23:29,444 --> 00:23:32,204 Speaker 2: have to get back at eleven, right, so it's eight hours. 415 00:23:32,484 --> 00:23:34,764 Speaker 2: But like, let's be honest, it's gonna take half an 416 00:23:34,804 --> 00:23:37,404 Speaker 2: hour each way to get there and back. It's an hour, right, 417 00:23:37,724 --> 00:23:40,044 Speaker 2: probably takes a little while to wind down. Right, You're 418 00:23:40,044 --> 00:23:43,324 Speaker 2: gonna have whatever you tea or whiskey or whatever you have. Right, 419 00:23:43,684 --> 00:23:47,404 Speaker 2: you have to eat breakfast in the morning if you're 420 00:23:47,444 --> 00:23:50,964 Speaker 2: doing any studying at all, Right, if you're trying to 421 00:23:50,964 --> 00:23:53,804 Speaker 2: get a few steps in or a little quick workout 422 00:23:53,924 --> 00:23:56,844 Speaker 2: or something like that. And then if you're like me 423 00:23:57,004 --> 00:24:01,284 Speaker 2: or you Maria, then you probably also have some non 424 00:24:01,324 --> 00:24:04,604 Speaker 2: poker work that you also have to do, even if 425 00:24:04,604 --> 00:24:06,844 Speaker 2: it's just kind of running emails, postponing things because you 426 00:24:06,924 --> 00:24:10,724 Speaker 2: made a deep run. So yeah, you wind up kind 427 00:24:10,764 --> 00:24:14,244 Speaker 2: of either sleeping no more than five hours or not 428 00:24:14,324 --> 00:24:18,124 Speaker 2: eating or not exercising, which can take a toll over 429 00:24:18,164 --> 00:24:21,884 Speaker 2: the course of the day. Right, So it's yeah, it's 430 00:24:22,004 --> 00:24:26,804 Speaker 2: it's it's it's a challenge. Now, what I would say 431 00:24:27,084 --> 00:24:30,804 Speaker 2: is that this is a simulation of life in certain ways, 432 00:24:30,884 --> 00:24:34,204 Speaker 2: and when I'm covering an election or other busy projects 433 00:24:34,324 --> 00:24:37,324 Speaker 2: or things like that. Right, But you don't necessarily get Davis. 434 00:24:37,404 --> 00:24:40,004 Speaker 2: I mean, this is kind of how real world decision 435 00:24:40,004 --> 00:24:44,404 Speaker 2: making often works. And because it's like a unique event. Yeah, 436 00:24:44,404 --> 00:24:45,724 Speaker 2: and look, by the way, I don't think the one 437 00:24:45,764 --> 00:24:50,244 Speaker 2: thing that I kind of like disagree with is like, 438 00:24:50,604 --> 00:24:53,164 Speaker 2: and I'm forty seven pil sixty, right, maybe the notion 439 00:24:53,284 --> 00:24:59,364 Speaker 2: that like that age necessarily all that much a factor. 440 00:24:59,604 --> 00:25:01,684 Speaker 2: As you get more experienced in poker, I think actually 441 00:25:02,004 --> 00:25:04,084 Speaker 2: things get easier, so you have like less mental strain. 442 00:25:04,124 --> 00:25:06,364 Speaker 2: That was a point before about like I'm not so 443 00:25:06,364 --> 00:25:08,524 Speaker 2: sympathetical like saying, yeah, you're physically more tired when you 444 00:25:08,564 --> 00:25:10,964 Speaker 2: get older, but like a lot more poker in life 445 00:25:10,964 --> 00:25:15,244 Speaker 2: experience thing with stress, one would hope. Right, Whereas the 446 00:25:15,284 --> 00:25:17,964 Speaker 2: first time you play the main event, then it seems 447 00:25:17,964 --> 00:25:19,684 Speaker 2: super high if you're not used to playing ten thousand 448 00:25:19,684 --> 00:25:22,164 Speaker 2: dollars tournaments, right, it seems it's very intimidating and things 449 00:25:22,244 --> 00:25:22,524 Speaker 2: like that. 450 00:25:22,844 --> 00:25:26,364 Speaker 1: Yeah, totally a great and So for the record, while 451 00:25:26,484 --> 00:25:31,364 Speaker 1: I think that in general, I think that poker structures 452 00:25:31,404 --> 00:25:34,204 Speaker 1: have gotten to the point where like we end days 453 00:25:34,284 --> 00:25:37,084 Speaker 1: way too late and restart too early, and there should 454 00:25:37,204 --> 00:25:41,084 Speaker 1: just be some sort of norm about that. So that aside, 455 00:25:41,124 --> 00:25:43,124 Speaker 1: I actually think the main event doesn't have this problem. 456 00:25:43,244 --> 00:25:46,604 Speaker 1: Usually the main event, you're not bagging up chipset three 457 00:25:46,644 --> 00:25:49,844 Speaker 1: in the morning. Usually it happened to me once, but 458 00:25:50,084 --> 00:25:52,484 Speaker 1: usually in the main event that does not happen, and 459 00:25:52,564 --> 00:25:55,284 Speaker 1: I actually think that the main event structure should not 460 00:25:55,324 --> 00:25:58,404 Speaker 1: be changed. So i'm i'm, I agree that this is 461 00:25:58,444 --> 00:26:01,524 Speaker 1: a unique event and when people you know, maybe you 462 00:26:01,564 --> 00:26:04,324 Speaker 1: can add one additional rest day somewhere deep in there. 463 00:26:04,924 --> 00:26:07,004 Speaker 1: I don't know, but that would be the only thing 464 00:26:07,084 --> 00:26:10,844 Speaker 1: that I would potentially look at. Maybe don't have a 465 00:26:10,844 --> 00:26:14,004 Speaker 1: dinner break some days, right, so that you can end earlier. 466 00:26:14,364 --> 00:26:19,324 Speaker 1: But what I most fundamentally disagree with what Phil said 467 00:26:19,644 --> 00:26:21,844 Speaker 1: is he said that it changes it from a skill 468 00:26:21,884 --> 00:26:25,124 Speaker 1: game to an endurance contest. I think that the endurance 469 00:26:25,204 --> 00:26:27,884 Speaker 1: is actually part of the mental game that is actually 470 00:26:27,924 --> 00:26:31,284 Speaker 1: a skill that is absolutely part of the skill of 471 00:26:31,364 --> 00:26:35,244 Speaker 1: life and of playing poker. And as you know, like 472 00:26:35,284 --> 00:26:37,244 Speaker 1: I've talked a lot about the fact that I think 473 00:26:37,324 --> 00:26:40,044 Speaker 1: mental game is one of the most important things and 474 00:26:40,084 --> 00:26:43,044 Speaker 1: one of the things that truly sets the elite players apart, right, 475 00:26:43,084 --> 00:26:46,524 Speaker 1: and your ability to actually figure out how to deal 476 00:26:46,564 --> 00:26:48,724 Speaker 1: with this, to deal with the stress, deal with like 477 00:26:49,124 --> 00:26:51,524 Speaker 1: not sleeping enough, deal with all of this, and actually 478 00:26:51,524 --> 00:26:54,124 Speaker 1: come in with a good mindset and be able to 479 00:26:54,164 --> 00:26:57,964 Speaker 1: still make good decisions. Sure, decision quality deteriorates as you 480 00:26:58,004 --> 00:27:01,084 Speaker 1: get more tired, but it does for everyone, and that 481 00:27:01,204 --> 00:27:04,524 Speaker 1: is a skill that's not you know, that is actually 482 00:27:04,524 --> 00:27:06,644 Speaker 1: something that you can also work on, and that is 483 00:27:06,684 --> 00:27:09,004 Speaker 1: also an important part of success, both in poker and 484 00:27:09,084 --> 00:27:12,004 Speaker 1: in life. So that's where I actually I fundamentally disagree 485 00:27:12,044 --> 00:27:14,124 Speaker 1: with Phil, Like it's a skill to get through these 486 00:27:14,284 --> 00:27:16,284 Speaker 1: and it should be hard to be the world champion. 487 00:27:16,684 --> 00:27:20,204 Speaker 1: It should actually be really really hard. This should be 488 00:27:20,484 --> 00:27:21,724 Speaker 1: marathons are hard. 489 00:27:22,564 --> 00:27:24,404 Speaker 2: To give one point of a couple points of context. 490 00:27:24,444 --> 00:27:25,644 Speaker 2: And by the way, and by the part of the 491 00:27:25,684 --> 00:27:34,244 Speaker 2: skill is actually learning how to budget your mental bandwidth, right, absolutely, 492 00:27:34,804 --> 00:27:36,324 Speaker 2: Like one thing I'll do sometimes is like we do 493 00:27:36,444 --> 00:27:38,004 Speaker 2: both of this, I think is like right down every 494 00:27:38,004 --> 00:27:40,444 Speaker 2: hand I played to review maybe with my coach, made 495 00:27:40,564 --> 00:27:43,444 Speaker 2: on my own later, right, And that's great in some ways, 496 00:27:43,524 --> 00:27:46,444 Speaker 2: it kind of forces you to be very attentive. It 497 00:27:46,444 --> 00:27:51,884 Speaker 2: also means you lack all that downtime, right, So sometimes 498 00:27:51,884 --> 00:27:53,524 Speaker 2: I get to a point where it's like, Okay, I 499 00:27:53,564 --> 00:27:55,644 Speaker 2: just want to play in flow now, right, I want 500 00:27:55,684 --> 00:27:58,364 Speaker 2: to play in flow and focus instead on things like 501 00:27:59,084 --> 00:28:01,244 Speaker 2: physical reads or thinking in it, you know, because now 502 00:28:01,244 --> 00:28:03,204 Speaker 2: I'm at a point where the stakes are high enough 503 00:28:03,204 --> 00:28:05,644 Speaker 2: where it's worth paying attention constantly and like and this 504 00:28:05,724 --> 00:28:09,724 Speaker 2: is just a distraction to the point contents. So, for 505 00:28:09,724 --> 00:28:11,724 Speaker 2: one thing, as the event gets bigger every year, it's 506 00:28:11,764 --> 00:28:15,924 Speaker 2: been over ten thousand players the last two years, it 507 00:28:15,924 --> 00:28:18,284 Speaker 2: does get longer and longer. Right, It just takes longer 508 00:28:18,284 --> 00:28:20,084 Speaker 2: to eliminate all but one player when you have more 509 00:28:20,084 --> 00:28:22,524 Speaker 2: players in the tournament. There's no kind of like easy 510 00:28:22,524 --> 00:28:25,604 Speaker 2: way around that, so you know. But also they've also 511 00:28:25,644 --> 00:28:30,044 Speaker 2: made adjustments where like there are now events going on 512 00:28:30,124 --> 00:28:33,964 Speaker 2: simultaneously all the way to like the very end of 513 00:28:34,044 --> 00:28:37,364 Speaker 2: the World Series of Poker, Right, So if you're gonna 514 00:28:37,404 --> 00:28:39,844 Speaker 2: play the main I don't think you have to assume 515 00:28:39,884 --> 00:28:42,204 Speaker 2: that you're gonna go to like the second week of 516 00:28:42,244 --> 00:28:44,964 Speaker 2: the event, right, But what you should do, I strongly, 517 00:28:45,004 --> 00:28:47,724 Speaker 2: strongly recommend, right is a siner you're gonna make it 518 00:28:47,764 --> 00:28:51,084 Speaker 2: through like day five, right, if you don't make it 519 00:28:51,084 --> 00:28:53,404 Speaker 2: today five, and odds are strongly against you making it 520 00:28:53,404 --> 00:28:56,284 Speaker 2: today five. There are lots of other, often very juicy 521 00:28:56,324 --> 00:28:59,484 Speaker 2: World Series tournaments where people are a little tilty. Those 522 00:28:59,484 --> 00:29:04,284 Speaker 2: are often pretty good events. So block out a week 523 00:29:04,364 --> 00:29:08,884 Speaker 2: for it or don't play, because the mentality we're like, oh, 524 00:29:10,084 --> 00:29:13,044 Speaker 2: if I make day three, I'm going to have to 525 00:29:13,164 --> 00:29:16,444 Speaker 2: reschedule my expensive flight and cancel all these meetings and 526 00:29:16,484 --> 00:29:20,484 Speaker 2: piss off my significant other. Like that's that I think 527 00:29:20,524 --> 00:29:25,724 Speaker 2: actually is very taxing, and you'll kind of commit suicide. 528 00:29:26,044 --> 00:29:28,884 Speaker 1: You'll find out, No, it's not good once again for 529 00:29:29,044 --> 00:29:31,284 Speaker 1: your mental game. That is not a good way of 530 00:29:31,324 --> 00:29:35,804 Speaker 1: doing it. And I think that you make your point 531 00:29:36,204 --> 00:29:39,004 Speaker 1: about day five, I think is a good balance. I 532 00:29:39,044 --> 00:29:41,604 Speaker 1: never play a tournament at all if I can't make 533 00:29:41,644 --> 00:29:44,924 Speaker 1: the final table, right like I actually, but this is 534 00:29:44,964 --> 00:29:46,684 Speaker 1: a little bit different for the main event. So I'm 535 00:29:46,684 --> 00:29:49,044 Speaker 1: not saying if you make the final table of the 536 00:29:49,044 --> 00:29:51,844 Speaker 1: main event, your boss will understand, I hope, or you 537 00:29:51,884 --> 00:29:53,724 Speaker 1: will actually have enough money to quit your job, so 538 00:29:53,764 --> 00:29:58,164 Speaker 1: don't worry about it. But everything else, I always look 539 00:29:58,204 --> 00:30:00,404 Speaker 1: at the schedule, and I never ever will play an 540 00:30:00,444 --> 00:30:03,124 Speaker 1: event if I have a conflict and you cannot go 541 00:30:03,244 --> 00:30:06,404 Speaker 1: into it with the mentality of, oh, well, it's incredibly 542 00:30:06,564 --> 00:30:10,164 Speaker 1: unlikely that I'm going to go that far. It's incredibly 543 00:30:10,324 --> 00:30:15,404 Speaker 1: unlikely that I'm going to make the final table, because that, 544 00:30:15,844 --> 00:30:19,364 Speaker 1: you know, that's self defeating, because you want to put 545 00:30:19,364 --> 00:30:22,684 Speaker 1: yourself in the mind frame of course I'm going to win, right, 546 00:30:22,724 --> 00:30:25,044 Speaker 1: even though you know that that's not likely at all, 547 00:30:25,284 --> 00:30:27,284 Speaker 1: but you still need to be there mentally, and you 548 00:30:27,324 --> 00:30:29,964 Speaker 1: need to plan for it because you do not want 549 00:30:29,964 --> 00:30:32,084 Speaker 1: to be taking the time to rearrange your flight, to 550 00:30:32,164 --> 00:30:34,564 Speaker 1: change your hotel reservations to do this. To do that, 551 00:30:35,004 --> 00:30:37,804 Speaker 1: you want your brain to have to focus on the 552 00:30:37,844 --> 00:30:40,844 Speaker 1: important things and not to distract it too much, because yes, 553 00:30:40,924 --> 00:30:42,844 Speaker 1: this is exhausting, Yes it will take a lot out 554 00:30:42,884 --> 00:30:46,844 Speaker 1: of you. So use those precious mental resources for the 555 00:30:46,884 --> 00:30:48,724 Speaker 1: good stuff. And I think this is true of all 556 00:30:48,724 --> 00:30:53,004 Speaker 1: life decisions. Right, plan in advance so that you free 557 00:30:53,084 --> 00:30:56,764 Speaker 1: up the mental bandwidth for the important things bottom line, 558 00:30:56,924 --> 00:30:59,364 Speaker 1: you know. I think Phil Hellmuth has made a good 559 00:30:59,404 --> 00:31:03,924 Speaker 1: point about structures broadly speaking, I think that it's completely 560 00:31:03,964 --> 00:31:06,844 Speaker 1: misapplied when it comes to the main event, and I 561 00:31:06,844 --> 00:31:08,804 Speaker 1: think that his point about what is and is not 562 00:31:08,884 --> 00:31:10,444 Speaker 1: a scale is just flat out wrong. 563 00:31:11,444 --> 00:31:14,124 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, people propose cutting the tournament to 564 00:31:14,244 --> 00:31:16,804 Speaker 2: ninety minutes, but like I mean, it is, like I mean, 565 00:31:17,044 --> 00:31:19,004 Speaker 2: you have a whole different things that happen, you know, 566 00:31:19,084 --> 00:31:22,204 Speaker 2: because it's so slow the structure when you get to 567 00:31:22,244 --> 00:31:26,444 Speaker 2: the bubble, when the last player is eliminated before the payout, 568 00:31:26,484 --> 00:31:29,084 Speaker 2: which I guess is like fifteen thousand dollars now or whatever. Right, 569 00:31:29,204 --> 00:31:32,284 Speaker 2: Like people have like really big stacks, right, you never 570 00:31:32,284 --> 00:31:34,804 Speaker 2: get at any other tournament, and like, you know, there 571 00:31:34,804 --> 00:31:36,844 Speaker 2: are some people that kind of specialize in the main event. 572 00:31:36,964 --> 00:31:39,204 Speaker 2: I have exactly one really deep run and no other 573 00:31:39,324 --> 00:31:41,244 Speaker 2: cashes than like eight tries or something, right, So I 574 00:31:41,244 --> 00:31:43,484 Speaker 2: don't know which category I fall into, but like, but 575 00:31:43,644 --> 00:31:46,244 Speaker 2: like getting deep in a deep stack tournament is a 576 00:31:46,364 --> 00:31:52,124 Speaker 2: very cool thing, and you know, self evaned buy that. 577 00:31:52,164 --> 00:31:54,124 Speaker 2: I'm mean, look at the fucking scoreboard. Ten thousand people 578 00:31:54,124 --> 00:31:57,124 Speaker 2: are entering this tournament. It's insane and not only paying 579 00:31:57,124 --> 00:31:59,684 Speaker 2: ten thousand dollars. But like, I'm sure people are busy lives, 580 00:31:59,684 --> 00:32:01,244 Speaker 2: and they're saying, I'm willing to take like two weeks 581 00:32:01,244 --> 00:32:03,524 Speaker 2: of my time to blow up my schedule to play 582 00:32:03,524 --> 00:32:04,884 Speaker 2: this event because I love it so much. And so 583 00:32:05,004 --> 00:32:06,604 Speaker 2: don't don't fix what isn't. 584 00:32:06,404 --> 00:32:08,724 Speaker 1: Broken, Nate, Will you be playing the main event this year? 585 00:32:09,444 --> 00:32:11,324 Speaker 2: Certainly? Think so? Yeah, this is a a The year 586 00:32:11,364 --> 00:32:13,924 Speaker 2: after the election is a year where I can do 587 00:32:14,004 --> 00:32:17,004 Speaker 2: a relatively large quantity of World Series of Poker. 588 00:32:17,404 --> 00:32:20,924 Speaker 1: All right, So here's to both of us having exhaustion 589 00:32:21,044 --> 00:32:24,084 Speaker 1: problems because we are running so deep in the main event. 590 00:32:24,084 --> 00:32:29,044 Speaker 2: Absolutely, let's take a quick break and go from poker 591 00:32:29,124 --> 00:32:31,084 Speaker 2: to rock paper scissors. 592 00:32:44,964 --> 00:32:48,004 Speaker 1: Hey, when is the first time you ever played rock 593 00:32:48,044 --> 00:32:50,884 Speaker 1: paper scissors? Do you remember or at least when you 594 00:32:50,964 --> 00:32:51,924 Speaker 1: found out it was a thing? 595 00:32:52,724 --> 00:32:54,604 Speaker 2: I felt like I've always I felt like I was 596 00:32:54,644 --> 00:32:56,644 Speaker 2: innately born with that knowledge. 597 00:32:57,084 --> 00:33:00,364 Speaker 1: Yeah, right, that's I think that's how we all feel. 598 00:33:00,404 --> 00:33:06,204 Speaker 1: It is something that is pretty universal. So I I 599 00:33:06,284 --> 00:33:10,044 Speaker 1: was born in the Soviet Union, and I my first 600 00:33:10,164 --> 00:33:12,764 Speaker 1: rock paper scissors experience was in Russian, right, which is 601 00:33:12,804 --> 00:33:15,884 Speaker 1: also called rock paper scissors. And it's a game that 602 00:33:15,964 --> 00:33:20,804 Speaker 1: I think kids play all over the world, and it's 603 00:33:21,004 --> 00:33:25,284 Speaker 1: a really fun way of looking at game theory. So 604 00:33:25,484 --> 00:33:27,764 Speaker 1: on the show we talk about the prisoners still on 605 00:33:27,844 --> 00:33:30,124 Speaker 1: my gun. You know, it's a very kind of that's 606 00:33:30,124 --> 00:33:34,044 Speaker 1: a very common game theoretical thing. But rock paper scissors 607 00:33:34,444 --> 00:33:36,844 Speaker 1: is a very different type of game. It's a game 608 00:33:37,164 --> 00:33:40,844 Speaker 1: of cyclic dominance, right, So that means that there are 609 00:33:41,364 --> 00:33:45,404 Speaker 1: multiple equilibria and they cycle, and so there's actually no 610 00:33:45,564 --> 00:33:49,124 Speaker 1: strategy that is a dominant strategy. There's no stable strategy 611 00:33:49,924 --> 00:33:53,804 Speaker 1: to this game. Because for people, if anyone listening to 612 00:33:53,844 --> 00:33:56,924 Speaker 1: this show has not played rock, paper scissors. Right, You 613 00:33:56,964 --> 00:34:00,844 Speaker 1: can throw out three things rock, paper, or scissors, and 614 00:34:01,364 --> 00:34:05,124 Speaker 1: you should theoretically do so with one third probability one 615 00:34:05,164 --> 00:34:11,164 Speaker 1: third frequency for each one, because rock is beaten by paper, right, 616 00:34:11,204 --> 00:34:15,044 Speaker 1: but beats scissors. Paper beats rock, but is beaten by scissors, 617 00:34:15,084 --> 00:34:18,084 Speaker 1: and scissors beats paper but is beaten by rock. 618 00:34:18,724 --> 00:34:21,324 Speaker 2: And Russia, it's also rock. It's not like potato. 619 00:34:23,444 --> 00:34:24,444 Speaker 1: No, it's not potato. 620 00:34:24,524 --> 00:34:27,284 Speaker 2: It's not potato potatosia. 621 00:34:28,324 --> 00:34:34,404 Speaker 1: It's also it's a it's also rock paper scissors or 622 00:34:34,444 --> 00:34:41,444 Speaker 1: in Russian kimanomaga, So that actually goes, uh, rock scissors, 623 00:34:41,484 --> 00:34:43,924 Speaker 1: paper is how you say it in Russian. That's the 624 00:34:44,244 --> 00:34:47,564 Speaker 1: that's the order. But yes, it's a really interesting game 625 00:34:47,684 --> 00:34:51,764 Speaker 1: theoretical challenge because you know, how like, how do you 626 00:34:51,804 --> 00:34:56,084 Speaker 1: play right? What's your optimal strategy if they're really if 627 00:34:56,084 --> 00:34:59,724 Speaker 1: there's if there is this sort of cyclic equilibrium and 628 00:34:59,764 --> 00:35:03,524 Speaker 1: not a dominant strategy, How do you randomize? How do 629 00:35:03,564 --> 00:35:06,884 Speaker 1: you actually make sure you're playing with the correct frequencies? 630 00:35:06,884 --> 00:35:08,284 Speaker 1: And these are things that we think about a lot 631 00:35:08,324 --> 00:35:10,364 Speaker 1: in poker. How do you try to exploit your opponent 632 00:35:10,364 --> 00:35:13,924 Speaker 1: because nobody randomizes correctly? And they're actually competitions, right, they 633 00:35:13,924 --> 00:35:16,724 Speaker 1: are world competitions of rock paper scissors or row shambo, 634 00:35:17,204 --> 00:35:21,484 Speaker 1: as the World Federation calls it, where where there are people. 635 00:35:21,204 --> 00:35:22,604 Speaker 2: Who are really really good at it. 636 00:35:22,804 --> 00:35:25,524 Speaker 1: How do you become good at rock paper scissors? How 637 00:35:25,564 --> 00:35:29,004 Speaker 1: do you actually become a world champion at something like 638 00:35:29,044 --> 00:35:33,284 Speaker 1: this where the game theory equilibrium is as it is now? 639 00:35:33,404 --> 00:35:38,484 Speaker 2: They're like computers that plague in humans and win like 640 00:35:39,084 --> 00:35:40,724 Speaker 2: the humans. Like, only are you supposed to win one 641 00:35:40,764 --> 00:35:42,484 Speaker 2: third of the time if you just guess at random? Right, 642 00:35:42,524 --> 00:35:44,204 Speaker 2: And like the humans only win like twenty five percent 643 00:35:44,204 --> 00:35:46,604 Speaker 2: of the time, which is like really really bad. You 644 00:35:46,684 --> 00:35:48,924 Speaker 2: must to be trying to be that bad. I mean, yeah, look, 645 00:35:49,004 --> 00:35:51,844 Speaker 2: randomization is hard. Do you randomize when you play poker? 646 00:35:52,844 --> 00:35:56,724 Speaker 1: I do randomize sometimes, but not always, just to be 647 00:35:56,764 --> 00:36:00,364 Speaker 1: perfectly honest. So I'm not the person who always randomizes, right. 648 00:36:00,364 --> 00:36:03,604 Speaker 1: There are people who like every decision like they'll, you know, 649 00:36:03,644 --> 00:36:06,764 Speaker 1: flip a they'll you know, toss their chip, look at 650 00:36:06,804 --> 00:36:09,404 Speaker 1: the clock, do something like that. I don't do it always, 651 00:36:09,484 --> 00:36:11,444 Speaker 1: but in some close spots I will randomize. 652 00:36:12,284 --> 00:36:15,964 Speaker 2: I've been more into the randomization lately, I think, although 653 00:36:15,964 --> 00:36:18,124 Speaker 2: I don't treat it as deterministically. I treat it as 654 00:36:18,124 --> 00:36:19,884 Speaker 2: like an input. You know what I mean? 655 00:36:20,204 --> 00:36:22,444 Speaker 1: Yep, Oh, I know exactly what you mean, Nate. For 656 00:36:22,564 --> 00:36:25,204 Speaker 1: listeners of the show who've been listeners since the beginning, 657 00:36:25,604 --> 00:36:27,964 Speaker 1: we remember a segment where Nate had a list and 658 00:36:28,004 --> 00:36:30,444 Speaker 1: he was going to randomize, and he didn't like what 659 00:36:30,564 --> 00:36:34,004 Speaker 1: he randomized too, so then he changed his mind. And 660 00:36:34,044 --> 00:36:36,164 Speaker 1: I tried to make the point that the point of 661 00:36:36,244 --> 00:36:40,564 Speaker 1: randomization is you have to do what the random what 662 00:36:40,684 --> 00:36:43,284 Speaker 1: the randomizer told you to do. So, yes, Nate, we 663 00:36:43,324 --> 00:36:46,564 Speaker 1: know that you only take it as as one point 664 00:36:46,564 --> 00:36:47,084 Speaker 1: of input. 665 00:36:47,564 --> 00:36:51,844 Speaker 2: No, it's a I mean, look if if I roll 666 00:36:51,884 --> 00:36:54,324 Speaker 2: a number, a high number, that says, oh, this is 667 00:36:54,564 --> 00:36:58,484 Speaker 2: chance a time when I should bluff, right, But then 668 00:36:58,524 --> 00:37:01,324 Speaker 2: I get a bad vibe from the player I was 669 00:37:01,324 --> 00:37:03,524 Speaker 2: planning on bluffing. Something about the way she or he 670 00:37:03,564 --> 00:37:09,924 Speaker 2: puts their chips in feels strong like that's a good job, right, 671 00:37:09,964 --> 00:37:13,004 Speaker 2: because like what game theory, this is the whole principle 672 00:37:13,004 --> 00:37:15,804 Speaker 2: of like why you want to randomize? Right? In game theory, 673 00:37:15,804 --> 00:37:18,924 Speaker 2: it's a mixed strategy, meaning you're indifferent between rock, paper 674 00:37:19,084 --> 00:37:22,684 Speaker 2: and scissors. Therefore you should make each throw one third 675 00:37:22,684 --> 00:37:26,004 Speaker 2: at the time, right, they all have the same exact 676 00:37:26,404 --> 00:37:30,204 Speaker 2: expected value. If that's true, then like tiny, tiny small 677 00:37:30,284 --> 00:37:36,004 Speaker 2: things matter, right, whatever slight vibe you get nless, you 678 00:37:36,084 --> 00:37:38,324 Speaker 2: actually have negative value on your tells, right, unless you're 679 00:37:38,324 --> 00:37:40,804 Speaker 2: actually like worse when you have like a vibe or 680 00:37:40,844 --> 00:37:46,004 Speaker 2: a game flow situation. So if you're indifferent, a doesn't matter. 681 00:37:46,044 --> 00:37:48,324 Speaker 2: But it doust been to that very small things lead 682 00:37:48,364 --> 00:37:50,524 Speaker 2: you to like making the same decision over and over 683 00:37:50,524 --> 00:37:51,084 Speaker 2: and over again. 684 00:37:52,084 --> 00:37:56,004 Speaker 1: Yeah, for sure. So I think that the this actually 685 00:37:57,084 --> 00:37:59,644 Speaker 1: gets to my other point of how are their champions? Right, 686 00:37:59,684 --> 00:38:02,164 Speaker 1: And it's the same reason why computers can beat humans 687 00:38:02,164 --> 00:38:07,164 Speaker 1: at rock paper scissors, which is that randomization is hard, right, 688 00:38:07,204 --> 00:38:10,284 Speaker 1: And random is hard, and when you're playing a game 689 00:38:10,324 --> 00:38:14,644 Speaker 1: of rock paper scissors, especially in a competitive setting, you 690 00:38:14,684 --> 00:38:17,284 Speaker 1: don't get to actually have a randomizer with you. 691 00:38:17,564 --> 00:38:17,724 Speaker 2: Right. 692 00:38:17,764 --> 00:38:19,284 Speaker 1: It's not like you get to be holding a phone 693 00:38:19,324 --> 00:38:22,124 Speaker 1: with a random number generator and you know that like 694 00:38:22,204 --> 00:38:24,844 Speaker 1: one to thirty three I throw rock, right, Like, you 695 00:38:24,844 --> 00:38:26,844 Speaker 1: don't get to do that, right, It's all in your brain. 696 00:38:27,204 --> 00:38:31,524 Speaker 1: And it's really really really difficult to randomize correctly and 697 00:38:31,564 --> 00:38:34,964 Speaker 1: actually do one third one third one third, and to 698 00:38:35,044 --> 00:38:37,084 Speaker 1: do it in not in a predictable right, I can 699 00:38:37,124 --> 00:38:40,484 Speaker 1: totally randomize to do to one thirds if I do 700 00:38:40,604 --> 00:38:43,324 Speaker 1: rock pay per scissors, rock pay per scissors. But then Nate, 701 00:38:43,364 --> 00:38:45,644 Speaker 1: if you're playing against me, you're gonna crush me, right 702 00:38:45,724 --> 00:38:49,684 Speaker 1: because I'm it's not random. Yes it's one third, but 703 00:38:49,764 --> 00:38:52,004 Speaker 1: it's in a predictable pattern. So you have to be 704 00:38:52,164 --> 00:38:53,764 Speaker 1: doing both of these things. And so I think that 705 00:38:53,804 --> 00:38:55,884 Speaker 1: the people who are really good at rock paper scissors 706 00:38:56,124 --> 00:38:59,084 Speaker 1: are the ones who actually can perceive your deviations, right, 707 00:38:59,364 --> 00:39:02,444 Speaker 1: who are very who are good and can do that 708 00:39:02,484 --> 00:39:07,804 Speaker 1: pattern recognition and figure out how you are randomizing incorrectly 709 00:39:07,844 --> 00:39:11,604 Speaker 1: and putting randomizing in quotes because it's not actually randomizing, right, 710 00:39:11,604 --> 00:39:12,164 Speaker 1: Because if. 711 00:39:12,084 --> 00:39:14,324 Speaker 2: You play the mixed strategy, the other thing is you 712 00:39:14,364 --> 00:39:17,044 Speaker 2: can't lose and you can't win, right. Someone can play 713 00:39:17,124 --> 00:39:20,444 Speaker 2: rock every time and you can say, well, I want 714 00:39:20,444 --> 00:39:23,404 Speaker 2: to be game theory optimal, so I'm gonna mix. Right, 715 00:39:23,484 --> 00:39:25,244 Speaker 2: even against the most particular player in the world, you'll 716 00:39:25,284 --> 00:39:30,164 Speaker 2: only win one third, tie one third, and lose one third. 717 00:39:30,284 --> 00:39:32,884 Speaker 2: And so you have to like be willing to exploit 718 00:39:32,924 --> 00:39:35,604 Speaker 2: people in order to you know, at the risk of 719 00:39:35,644 --> 00:39:37,564 Speaker 2: being a splayed to yourself it's a perfect illustration of 720 00:39:37,564 --> 00:39:39,764 Speaker 2: the basic concept in poker strategy. 721 00:39:40,084 --> 00:39:46,004 Speaker 1: Absolutely so just a funny aside. I went on Twitter 722 00:39:46,044 --> 00:39:48,444 Speaker 1: this morning and saw that one of the poker players 723 00:39:48,524 --> 00:39:53,364 Speaker 1: in my orbit, Neil Ferrell are otherwise known as Feraldo, 724 00:39:53,484 --> 00:39:56,924 Speaker 1: had tweeted about rock paper scissors. It was very funny 725 00:39:56,924 --> 00:39:59,204 Speaker 1: and a very funny illustration. At this point, he says, 726 00:39:59,524 --> 00:40:02,204 Speaker 1: tap my son, rock paper scissors, and now it's the 727 00:40:02,244 --> 00:40:05,404 Speaker 1: deciding factor for him tidying up his toys or going 728 00:40:05,444 --> 00:40:09,084 Speaker 1: to bed. At bedtime, he flat out refuses to ever 729 00:40:09,164 --> 00:40:11,924 Speaker 1: throw rock. However, there are going to be some tough 730 00:40:12,044 --> 00:40:15,444 Speaker 1: lessons learned about balanced rangers in the Fareale Household over 731 00:40:15,484 --> 00:40:18,684 Speaker 1: the next year. So that, I mean, that's very funny. Right, 732 00:40:18,684 --> 00:40:21,724 Speaker 1: you have a little kid who sort of understands the game, 733 00:40:22,044 --> 00:40:24,684 Speaker 1: but for some reason doesn't like rock and refuses to 734 00:40:25,164 --> 00:40:28,004 Speaker 1: do that. So as a parent, it becomes incredibly easy 735 00:40:28,044 --> 00:40:30,684 Speaker 1: to just get your kid to do whatever you want. 736 00:40:30,964 --> 00:40:33,844 Speaker 1: But you know, I actually like it is really interesting 737 00:40:33,844 --> 00:40:36,044 Speaker 1: to look at how kids' brains work about the work 738 00:40:36,084 --> 00:40:39,484 Speaker 1: when it comes to this, because that's what you know, 739 00:40:39,564 --> 00:40:41,644 Speaker 1: that's what our human brains do as well, right, we 740 00:40:41,724 --> 00:40:44,164 Speaker 1: are not random, even though we think we are, we 741 00:40:44,244 --> 00:40:48,044 Speaker 1: can't randomize well and recognizing patterns and trying to like 742 00:40:48,084 --> 00:40:50,724 Speaker 1: read your opponents. Think that's a huge part of the 743 00:40:50,764 --> 00:40:53,004 Speaker 1: game and why it's so interesting and why it's such 744 00:40:53,004 --> 00:40:54,844 Speaker 1: an interesting model for human behavior. 745 00:40:55,924 --> 00:40:58,084 Speaker 2: I don't have kids to you unless you've been hiding 746 00:40:58,124 --> 00:41:02,564 Speaker 2: some children like Elon or you know, half the population 747 00:41:02,644 --> 00:41:03,724 Speaker 2: has apparently. 748 00:41:03,564 --> 00:41:05,964 Speaker 1: Yeah, apparently, I feel like, but I'm not one of them. 749 00:41:06,684 --> 00:41:10,484 Speaker 2: Also, a little randomizing things can like avoid these super 750 00:41:10,484 --> 00:41:14,044 Speaker 2: annoying decisions about I should we get Italian food or 751 00:41:14,204 --> 00:41:16,324 Speaker 2: Thai food or whatever else. Right, if you're in a 752 00:41:16,324 --> 00:41:19,524 Speaker 2: relationship and trying to negotiate something, your two kids are 753 00:41:19,804 --> 00:41:23,724 Speaker 2: disagreeing on something, randomize right. Yeah, it probably doesn't matter, 754 00:41:24,244 --> 00:41:28,324 Speaker 2: but that at least kind of creates an opportunity for 755 00:41:29,204 --> 00:41:31,604 Speaker 2: resolving an animportant thing. Yes, or indifferent things. It can 756 00:41:31,644 --> 00:41:35,444 Speaker 2: be you can be indifferent between two important options because 757 00:41:35,444 --> 00:41:36,604 Speaker 2: they're both equally good or bad. 758 00:41:37,364 --> 00:41:39,884 Speaker 1: But yeah, exactly so. I think Rock Paper Scissors is 759 00:41:39,924 --> 00:41:43,844 Speaker 1: a beautiful illustration of the importance of randomization and the 760 00:41:43,924 --> 00:41:45,844 Speaker 1: difficulty of randomization. 761 00:41:46,124 --> 00:41:54,004 Speaker 2: We should probably do a throw. Okay, let's do a throw. Okay, ready, yeah, one, two. 762 00:41:53,484 --> 00:42:02,164 Speaker 1: Three, I don't see what you have. I have paper scissors. Nay, 763 00:42:02,604 --> 00:42:08,884 Speaker 1: you win the championship of Rock paper Scissors for our show. 764 00:42:11,164 --> 00:42:13,644 Speaker 1: What did we say about gloating? What did we say 765 00:42:13,644 --> 00:42:17,124 Speaker 1: about congrats? 766 00:42:17,724 --> 00:42:18,484 Speaker 2: Fist trophy? 767 00:42:20,004 --> 00:42:23,524 Speaker 1: Take it down, HIV and we will see you next 768 00:42:23,564 --> 00:42:31,884 Speaker 1: time for the rematch of the Rochambeau championshefs on Risky Business. 769 00:42:32,484 --> 00:42:34,644 Speaker 1: Let us know what you think of the show. Reach 770 00:42:34,724 --> 00:42:38,124 Speaker 1: out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot fm. 771 00:42:38,404 --> 00:42:40,844 Speaker 1: And by the way, if you're a Pushkin Plus subscriber, 772 00:42:41,004 --> 00:42:43,884 Speaker 1: we have some bonus content for you. We'll be answering 773 00:42:43,884 --> 00:42:46,884 Speaker 1: a listener question each week that's coming up right after 774 00:42:46,924 --> 00:42:47,444 Speaker 1: the credits. 775 00:42:47,684 --> 00:42:50,964 Speaker 2: And if you're not subscribing yet, consider signing up for 776 00:42:51,124 --> 00:42:53,324 Speaker 2: just six ninety nine a month. What a nice price 777 00:42:53,644 --> 00:42:56,444 Speaker 2: you get access to all that premium content and ad 778 00:42:56,484 --> 00:42:59,084 Speaker 2: for listening across Pushkin's entire network of shows. 779 00:42:59,324 --> 00:43:02,364 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kannakova. 780 00:43:02,164 --> 00:43:04,524 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show is a co 781 00:43:04,564 --> 00:43:08,484 Speaker 2: production of Pushkin Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 782 00:43:08,524 --> 00:43:12,044 Speaker 2: by Isabel Carter. Our associate producer is Gabriel Hunter Chang. 783 00:43:12,604 --> 00:43:15,604 Speaker 2: Sally Helm is our editor and Our executive producer is 784 00:43:15,684 --> 00:43:18,084 Speaker 2: Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruguer. 785 00:43:18,364 --> 00:43:20,764 Speaker 1: If you like this show, please rate and review us 786 00:43:20,764 --> 00:43:23,124 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too. Thanks so much 787 00:43:23,164 --> 00:43:23,684 Speaker 1: for tuning in.