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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five, part of the Action Network. Today is our

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Speaker 1: week eight Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Millman, Chief

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Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming off

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Speaker 1: of a four and one week in our contest, including

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Speaker 1: two of our biggest bets of the year in the

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Speaker 1: Ravens as short home dogs over the Lions and the

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Speaker 1: Eagles as short home dogs over the Miami Dolphins. We

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Speaker 1: are professionals. We don't dwell too long on the success.

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Speaker 1: We don't count our cash. As Mike Tomlin would.

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Speaker 2: Say, last week was last week, this week was this week.

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Speaker 2: Next week we'll be next week.

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Speaker 1: And that starts with our recording of our Sunday episode

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Speaker 1: before Sunday Night Football. And as we said on that show,

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Speaker 1: a lot of lines we liked have already moved, which

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Speaker 1: is why you need to listen to the Sunday show

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Speaker 1: if you want to get the best of the number.

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Speaker 1: Today we will get to our Simon says in our

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Speaker 1: exec decision. This episode will look at the entire board

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Speaker 1: as we begin narrowing down the five picks we'll enter

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Speaker 1: in the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them Contest still open for sign ups, still free

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Speaker 1: to play, still awarding weekly and season long cash prizes

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Speaker 1: at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Now let's bring in

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Speaker 1: my co host, might BFF, my companion, my compadre professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Simon, Yesterday, Matt Mitchell told me that

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Speaker 1: we are currently in the top five percent of our

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Speaker 1: twelve thousand person contest. I know, I said, we don't

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Speaker 1: count our cast during the season. I gotta tell you,

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Speaker 1: I do feel so much better on Mondays when we

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Speaker 1: have won and are not shamed in front of our

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Speaker 1: listeners and viewers. I want to win for them. But

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Speaker 1: I'm also I need to remind everybody it doesn't matter

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Speaker 1: where you are in the leaderboard right now. The contest

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Speaker 1: leaderboard will get shaken up when everyone's two lowest scoring

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Speaker 1: weeks are dropped after week twelve. That's after Thanksgiving. That's

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Speaker 1: when you know if you still are in this thing

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Speaker 1: or not. But Simon, still, it's nice to be winning

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Speaker 1: rather than losing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, nice start, Brother. Twenty two and thirteen, the Eagles

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Speaker 2: came through. They're the one seats, so I'm feel pretty

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Speaker 2: good about that. Putin might be dead. That's pretty exciting.

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Speaker 2: You might have got Putin finally. And yeah, Game seven

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Speaker 2: World serious tonight, Chad like it. There's a lot going

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Speaker 2: on right now in your boys' life. So for pretty

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Speaker 2: exciting times right now.

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Speaker 1: Game seven of the Phillies tonight. We have the start

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Speaker 1: of the NBA season tonight. The number one guy in

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Speaker 1: the contest right now has twenty eight wins. We have

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Speaker 1: twenty two wins, so we are six wins six games

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Speaker 1: behind right now. But by the way, it's top two

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Speaker 1: percent of the entire contest, top five percent of active

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Speaker 1: weekly participants. As a reminder, the contest and the podcast

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Speaker 1: is presented by bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty

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Speaker 1: out the boosts and see why it's never ordinary at

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Speaker 1: bet three six five must be twenty one or older

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Speaker 1: and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen year older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms,

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Speaker 1: conditions and restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every episode

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Speaker 1: of the Favorites live on YouTube, So for those enjoying

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Speaker 1: on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and

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Speaker 1: subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Here's our week

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Speaker 1: seven roundup. We had two one hundred and one entries

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Speaker 1: finish five and oh a two way tie for first place.

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Speaker 1: Congrats to our winners Chris Thile's and MNSD forty two.

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Speaker 1: This week's Producer Couple Word goes to Claudio Gotts for

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Speaker 1: finishing dead fucking last and the Week seven contest going

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Speaker 1: zero to five and missing the tiebreaker by four hundred yards. Claudio,

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Speaker 1: please email our producer Matt Mitchell at podcast at Actionnetwork

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Speaker 1: dot com to claim your non cash prize. Thanks for playing.

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Speaker 1: Wee cave it. The contest is live. The Monday Night

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Speaker 1: Football tiebreaker is total passing yards on Monday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: Good luck everybody, all right, quick futures update Justin Herbert

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Speaker 1: twenty five to one. That ticket is dead, as Simon

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Speaker 1: to say, Tyreek Hill to lead the league in receiving

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Speaker 1: yards nine to one. He is all alone in first

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Speaker 1: place by nearly one hundred yards. Jalen Carter dominating performance

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Speaker 1: against Miami. He was blowing the middle of that offensive

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Speaker 1: lineup from the very first play. Got him at seventy

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Speaker 1: to one. Still minus money to win DROI Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: to win MVP at ten to one. It's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a tough sled Christian McCaffrey to win MVP fifteen to one.

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Speaker 1: Gonna be tough. Week eate my friend, week eate box

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Speaker 1: at Buffalo Bills Thursday Night Football. My very first instinct

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Speaker 1: on this Simon Bill's bounced back spot in which Josh

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Speaker 1: Allen tends to cover when he wins. When he wins

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Speaker 1: at homes homely covers. I'm very worried about this defense.

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Speaker 1: Matt Mlano, Dakwan Jones, Tredevius White. All out impact was

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Speaker 1: obvious against the Jags, obvious against the Pats this week,

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Speaker 1: giving up on Mac Jones' game winning touchdown at the end.

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Speaker 1: These guys are all out for the season basically, and

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Speaker 1: you're miss and playmakers at every level of defense. So

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Speaker 1: I don't even know how to handicap this team right

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Speaker 1: now because they are so different without these guys.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, nightmare scenario for Bills fans, the Bill's team. It's

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Speaker 2: just some years it breaks your way, in some years

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Speaker 2: it doesn't. And this clearly is not breaking the Bill's way.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not, honestly don't hate our Josh Allen MVP

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Speaker 2: bet just because he'll have to be the MVP for

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Speaker 2: them to make the playoffs like this, it's truly all

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Speaker 2: on him now, like he's always going to to be

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Speaker 2: highly competitive, so you know, gut instincts, I'm gonna probably

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Speaker 2: take Tampa. But we say it every week. You just

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Speaker 2: just bet prime time unders. I have to beg you

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Speaker 2: people to do it. I know it doesn't feel natural. Evan.

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Speaker 2: We go to one last week, I feel like I

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Speaker 2: won money last week. I'm pretty sure it too. And one.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, Thursday, we got blown the hell out, that

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Speaker 2: went way over, stayed under, Sunday Night stayed under. Thank

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Speaker 2: you to Swift. I believe Swift fell down so they

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Speaker 2: didn't get the touchdown there or maybe the Eagles just

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Speaker 2: kneeled it. Then last night, you know, weird things happened.

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Speaker 2: We got the under again. Yeah, Evan just put our chat.

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Speaker 2: It's sixteen and seven this season primetime unders. So if

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Speaker 2: you're like me and Chad and you're not like feeling

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Speaker 2: too confident about taking either side, just go under, just

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Speaker 2: take the smart bet. But Tampa feels like they're the

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Speaker 2: play here. It's like, who are the Bills to be

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Speaker 2: getting this many points? I just said to all the

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Speaker 2: reasons why this is not the same team as they

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Speaker 2: had been in the past. So yes, Josh Allen, with

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Speaker 2: the good defenses, use the steamroll teams. I mean, they're

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Speaker 2: just not the same defense they've had these past couple

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Speaker 2: of seasons. So clearly the biggest weakness is coming into

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Speaker 2: the season for the Bills team was the offensive line,

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Speaker 2: and they were really top heavy on defense. They had

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Speaker 2: a lot of stars and scrubs. They've lost those stars.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, tough tough times for Bills fans. They still

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Speaker 2: might better win that division with Miami battling Miami for

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Speaker 2: that division, but then being the number one, number two

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Speaker 2: seed in the AFC. That's gone now with these injuries

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Speaker 2: and the way they've been playing this year, So yeah,

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Speaker 2: Tampa plus eight and a half. Luckily me and Chad

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Speaker 2: can't put this in the contest. I don't think we

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Speaker 2: would anyway.

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Speaker 3: No.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, you're right about the AFC. Right now,

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Speaker 1: they are behind the Chiefs and Miami with the longest

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds or the shortest of the contenders, the

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Speaker 1: longest of the contenders in for the Super Bowl. I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about the Rams and Dallas. Rams visiting

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Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys six and a half point favorites at bet

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Speaker 1: three six five. Right now, the line moved from six

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Speaker 1: to six and a half to seven back down to

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Speaker 1: six and a half. Dallas is off of a bye.

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Speaker 1: Dallas leads the league in pressure rate. The Rams O

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Speaker 1: line is bottom ten, and in the second half against

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh they couldn't move the ball because the o line

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Speaker 1: was terrible. We hated the Cowboys. I don't think Mike

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Speaker 1: McCarthy is a very good coach, very good play caller.

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Speaker 1: Dak in this spot thirty one and seven straight up

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Speaker 1: as a six or more fave, twenty six to eleven

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Speaker 1: and one against the spread. At home, he is twenty

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Speaker 1: one and four straight up sixteen eight to one against

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Speaker 1: the spread.

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Speaker 2: God damn uh Simon.

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Speaker 1: Dallas is the play.

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Speaker 2: Probably are but I already threw someone rams at seven.

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Speaker 2: I mean that just got that was way too high

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Speaker 2: when it went up to seven six six fields right,

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Speaker 2: So technically I would still say the value is on

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Speaker 2: the rams. But you're right, like, how is Stafford Goanna

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Speaker 2: have time to get the ball out? Just just a

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Speaker 2: bad scenario. But the positives to me is I mean

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Speaker 2: that offense is bad in the Cowboys Chad. I mean,

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Speaker 2: think about that Charters team, how suspect that defense is

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Speaker 2: and they they probably should have beat They probably should

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Speaker 2: have beat this Dallas team. Like Dallas just seems like

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Speaker 2: they play to level their competition this year. And you know,

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Speaker 2: their only good win this year was beating that Jet

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Speaker 2: team after such an emotional win the Jets had in

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Speaker 2: Week one. Like I kind of you know, I got

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Speaker 2: a lot of questions about this Dallas team, no question

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Speaker 2: about their defense. Just said their defense is for real,

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Speaker 2: Like that pass rush is really good, but they still

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Speaker 2: are down digs on that defense. To me, that's a

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Speaker 2: big deal. I know Gilmore's played well for them, but

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Speaker 2: you're going up against the best one two receiver in

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Speaker 2: the league. I mean, Eagles DeVante Smith ag are incredible.

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Speaker 2: Hookah's out of this world like Pooka with Cooper Kupp

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Speaker 2: It's it really is insane. I know a lot of

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Speaker 2: it is a due with Stafford. Stafford is that good?

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it's seven, Chad. This is a no brain

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Speaker 2: on the Rams. But you're right. If it goes down

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Speaker 2: to six again, I could probably be talked into the Cowboys,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, we're probably gonna disagree on this one.

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Speaker 1: Simon. I'm making the Cowboys my exec decision this week.

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Speaker 1: I just did that.

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Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.

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Speaker 1: Are you your honors?

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Speaker 2: Executive decision is out a character.

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Speaker 1: Yay, I'll tell you why it is out of character.

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Speaker 1: But here's why. I have historically had a bias against

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Speaker 1: Dak and Mike McCarthy as favorites generally because I thought

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Speaker 1: they underperformed. But then I started thinking about it. They

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Speaker 1: performed very well at home and that's when I asked

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Speaker 1: Evan to look these numbers up because we talked about

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Speaker 1: this earlier in the year too. The Cowboys perform well

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Speaker 1: at home as big favorites.

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Speaker 2: Quick pause mean Chad mean Chad been knocked out of

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Speaker 2: two Survivor contests the past two years, both on Dallas

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Speaker 2: as home favorites. Just so people are aware that Chad

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Speaker 2: does not remember this two times two years in a row.

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Speaker 1: Don't remember it at all. The die has been cast.

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Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboy. I got him at six. I got the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys at minus six. I think them coming off of

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Speaker 1: bye with that defense against a terrible rams O line

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Speaker 1: and an opportunity to get right at home, Dallas Cowboys.

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Speaker 2: You're growing off the deep end. This is this is

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Speaker 2: off brand Chat. There's a lot of on brand Chad

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Speaker 2: games this week. I don't know why you're picking this one.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I just been honestly, like, I started

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Speaker 1: doing some research yesterday and I started feeling really good

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Speaker 1: about it, and I'm like.

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Speaker 2: Go do more research, go back, go back to the

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Speaker 2: drawing board. Just put this one on the side for now.

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Speaker 2: This is not This is not very Chad, Like. I

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Speaker 2: don't know what's happening right now. This is old Chad.

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Speaker 2: This is like five years ago Chad. This is not Chad.

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Speaker 2: I knew you, yeah, all right.

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Speaker 1: Minnesota at green Bay. Green Bay is a two and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorite. Look this one opened as green

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Speaker 1: Bay plus one, moved up to two and a half

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Speaker 1: one warning teams that opened as a dog and moved

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Speaker 1: to a favorite since twenty nineteen forty two eighty one

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Speaker 1: against the spread that includes Green Bay. This week we'll

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Speaker 1: get to a couple of other games as well. I

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Speaker 1: don't have a strong feeling on this after last night.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to feel better about Minnesota because Kirk Cousins

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Speaker 1: continues to play out of his mind, and at least

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Speaker 1: last night they didn't have the same turnover luck. Maybe

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Speaker 1: there's some turnover luck regression coming to coming their way,

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Speaker 1: but I think they also got lucky by some some

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Speaker 1: pretty bad decision making defensively by the Niners and some

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Speaker 1: turnovers by the Niners. So it's hard for me to

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Speaker 1: to feel strongly about this game.

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Speaker 2: Easy, easy bet green Bay. There's no There's no choice here, people,

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Speaker 2: You just Kirk just had the game of his life

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Speaker 2: and all the bounces went his way like that. That

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Speaker 2: touchdown then a half like that was I mean, you

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Speaker 2: can't get more luck lucky than that. So I don't

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Speaker 2: know what the luck rankings are yet. It's only Tuesday,

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Speaker 2: but Green Bay is gonna high up on our luck rankings.

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Speaker 1: So I'll get to the luck buddy, I'll get to

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Speaker 1: the luck rankings. We got one game and it's it's

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Speaker 1: a doozy.

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Speaker 2: So maybe my thirsd I'll get checking around. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: this is a this is a spot player. You're taking

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Speaker 2: Green Bay here. They look dead. They just also the

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Speaker 2: worst team in football on Denver Minnesota had the game

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Speaker 2: of their life completely destroyed what people perceived the best

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Speaker 2: team in football, the forty nine ers. This line is

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Speaker 2: a pick minus one green Bay. The books are going

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Speaker 2: to get so much Minnesota money here that I'm hoping

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Speaker 2: this flips back to a dog for green Bay, like

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Speaker 2: that would be amazing. We get plus one and a half.

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Speaker 2: So now making this, Simon says, you don't have to

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Speaker 2: grab this right now. You can wait on this. But

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Speaker 2: this there's like a ninety percent chance. This is what

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Speaker 2: I'm me and Chat's five. This is just this is

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Speaker 2: what this show does. We just the definition of buying low.

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Speaker 2: This is a Bilo spot for Green Bay.

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Speaker 1: The numbers move from one to two and a half.

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Speaker 1: It's not at minus one or pick right now.

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Speaker 2: I mean I'm looking at a book right now, live

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Speaker 2: it's minus one Green Bay.

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Speaker 1: Right, okay, well I'm looking at that three six five,

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Speaker 1: so there it could just be bouncing around all over

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Speaker 1: the place right now.

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Speaker 2: Now it's plus one green Bay.

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Speaker 1: Come on, well does that does that mean you want

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Speaker 1: to make it?

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Speaker 2: As Simon says, no, because I'm just the public should

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Speaker 2: hammer is going to hammer the line like it's just

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Speaker 2: we talked earlier on Sunday Night. There's a couple of

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Speaker 2: games that was like, just wait, the public's gonna bet

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Speaker 2: the sign and they have, like we've had a bunch

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Speaker 2: of numbers move up, so this is another one. Everyone.

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Speaker 2: I'll let them come all in. You could, you could

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Speaker 2: grab the plus one and a half right now. There

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Speaker 2: is one very publicly known book that has has them

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Speaker 2: at plus one and a half green Bay. But I'll

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Speaker 2: keep waiting see if the line gets a little higher.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to show my cards too early here

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Speaker 2: to the books.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, I'm glad to see that. I just

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Speaker 1: want to double check and make sure. All right, now,

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Speaker 1: that is so strange. I got to tell you right

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Speaker 1: before we came on the air, I checked this number

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Speaker 1: and it was Green Bay minus two and a half

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Speaker 1: and now it is green Bay plus one. That is

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Speaker 1: just insane, all right? Atlanta at Tennessee Tennessee plus two

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Speaker 1: Sunday Night. You're like, this one is tricky because we

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Speaker 1: want to like Tennessee. But you know, like I just

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Speaker 1: mentioned with Green Bay, Lanta opened as a dog and

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Speaker 1: is now the favorite. So the trend is against them.

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Speaker 1: Titan's getting them on this right now. Let me let

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Speaker 1: me know what you think of this. So this week

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Speaker 1: the Titans traded Kevin Bayard, all pro safety to the

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Speaker 1: Eagles all hail Howie. We don't know who's going to

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Speaker 1: be played in quarterback for the Titans yet it feels

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Speaker 1: like a smash Mike Vrabel spot. But I do worry,

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Speaker 1: like by trading by our is this a signal that

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Speaker 1: they're starting to think about rebuild or do we care?

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Speaker 2: Uh No, I don't. I don't care yet. I think

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Speaker 2: variable selve his guys up to the play and this

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Speaker 2: is a nice spot for Tennessee. But like you said,

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Speaker 2: it don't we don't know who the quarterback is. I mean,

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Speaker 2: it was plus one out to two and a half.

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Speaker 2: You might as well wait, like this could get up

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Speaker 2: to three. I'll throw a little in the two and

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Speaker 2: a half. But yeah, you're You're right, Chat, it's like

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Speaker 2: a tough game to read, but we assume all the

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Speaker 2: money will come in Atlanta. Just from that, people think

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Speaker 2: Tennessee's given up. The numbers should go up. This is

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Speaker 2: a great matchup for Tennessee's d line, Like they're good

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Speaker 2: at stopping the run, taking away You're you know the

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Speaker 2: Atlanta what that's what Atlanta needs to do. They need

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Speaker 2: to run this start up to pass like that's that's

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Speaker 2: kind of how their offense really funnel. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: don't know the whole story with Robinson. They could be

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Speaker 2: getting in trouble for that as well. Uh, this Atlanta team,

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Speaker 2: so I don't know what punishment would be to them

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Speaker 2: or to him. But yeah, weird, weird vibes come out

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Speaker 2: of Atlanta. Uh, we're getting getting Tennessee at a dog

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Speaker 2: against an Atlanta team coming off a huge divisional road win.

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Speaker 2: We're supposed to take Tennessee here, So Chad, Chad's right

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Speaker 2: and is thinking, it's just we're hoping to get a

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Speaker 2: better number, so another play. I'll just wait and get

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Speaker 2: a better number.

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Speaker 1: You're referencing Bijon this past week, who was never on

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Speaker 1: the injured list, but the Falcons said he was too

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Speaker 1: sick to play, played one snap, then came out uh

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Speaker 1: and the NFL is investigating why he wasn't on the

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Speaker 1: injury list and what potential punishments may be if there

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Speaker 1: was something untoured with the Falcons in that situation. New

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Speaker 1: England at Miami. Miami is a nine and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite. We did not bet New England last week,

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Speaker 1: even though it was the exact right spot as huge

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Speaker 1: home dogs to the Bills. This is a pros Joe's

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Speaker 1: game tickets on the Dolphins, money on the Patriots. I

350
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Speaker 1: thought the Pats d was actually really good against the Bills,

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Speaker 1: like they had sort of had their two weeks of

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Speaker 1: not knowing who they are without Christian Gonzales and Matthew Judan,

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Speaker 1: and they schemed their way back into competence. Bills had

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Speaker 1: eighty one yards rushing three point three eight yards per

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Speaker 1: carry on the ground, Pats had four sacks. I think

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Speaker 1: I would like this more if the Pats were at

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Speaker 1: home and Nammy had one against Philly. But also feel

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Speaker 1: like I'm missing out on a big reason to take

359
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Speaker 1: New England and I can't figure out what it is.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of pros I know they took doing it.

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Speaker 2: I think the number was eleven and a half before

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Speaker 2: that Sunday night game, and they got a decent amount

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Speaker 2: down on the Patriots. And their view was, it's Belichick

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Speaker 2: seen this offense second time around this season, like they've

365
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Speaker 2: already played them early in the year. His defense played

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Speaker 2: actually really well against them. And my counter to that is, well,

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Speaker 2: they've they've lost their two best players from that game,

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Speaker 2: and I know, you know, they've had some guys who

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Speaker 2: have stepped up for them against that Bills team. I

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Speaker 2: mean this, this feels like a Miami spot, right. The

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Speaker 2: numbers moved too much. If it was ten and a half,

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Speaker 2: I'd still like the Patriots. Now that it's under ten.

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Speaker 2: To me, the value now is showing it's Miami team.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's a little chalky, little chalky coming in

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Speaker 2: Miami here. But it just feels like the numbers moved

376
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Speaker 2: too much and now I'm getting value on them. So

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Speaker 2: I don't know if I'll be one of my five,

378
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Speaker 2: but yeah, I'll put a little on Miami here.

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Speaker 1: Interesting. By the way, Evan Abrams says two fifteen and

380
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Speaker 1: five against the spread at home in his career.

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Speaker 2: Pretty good.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Houston at Carolina Sunday night. You said that you

383
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Speaker 1: really liked Houston. Both teams coming off a bye, better coach,

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Speaker 1: better QB in Houston. All the money is on Houston.

385
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Speaker 1: Ye feels like we are walking into a trap with

386
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Speaker 1: this game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I said, So maybe we'll just avoid it.

388
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Speaker 2: But I can't cannot take Houston. It's a good number.

389
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Speaker 2: I just have not seen anything that give me any

390
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:26,960
Speaker 2: type of hope on Carolina Panthers. And last week was

391
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Speaker 2: like the get right week for all the bad teams, right,

392
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,080
Speaker 2: all these bad teams that had him been covering or

393
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Speaker 2: had him been doing well, they finally got wins, They

394
00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 2: finally covered. Maybe that's people logic here, Maybe that's why

395
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Speaker 2: I'm seeing some money here show up on this Panthers team.

396
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Speaker 2: But I just there's nothing for me to bet on.

397
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Speaker 2: I have no no angle to take with Carolina. Like

398
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Speaker 2: I've been trying to find one random numbers and it's

399
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Speaker 2: like nope, even my model thinks this is too low.

400
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Speaker 2: So yeah, been a road road favorite rookie quarterback with

401
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,720
Speaker 2: a rookie head coach, Chad. This is not where I

402
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Speaker 2: want to be. So probably one of our five but

403
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Speaker 2: I'm definitely drinking this Houston kool aid.

404
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Speaker 1: Well, look, there's one stat that I think will make

405
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Speaker 1: you happy. Two teams that are playing, but when both

406
00:21:10,440 --> 00:21:13,239
Speaker 1: are off of a buy favorite thirty eight twenty three

407
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,560
Speaker 1: and one the last twenty years, So you know, it's

408
00:21:16,560 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 1: a nice shot that you got that going for you.

409
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Speaker 1: But man, this just feels trappy of trappy, and I

410
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: think it is because of what you just said, Like

411
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Speaker 1: last week felt as though it was a get right week,

412
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Speaker 1: and the Panthers didn't play last week, So now all

413
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Speaker 1: of a sudden, the Panthers are playing, and this feels

414
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Speaker 1: like if there's ever going to be a time where

415
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:41,080
Speaker 1: they have an opportunity, it's to cover at least against

416
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Speaker 1: a Houston team whose value is still overinflated because of

417
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Speaker 1: how good cjs Strout has been in the way they've

418
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Speaker 1: played so far this year.

419
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Speaker 2: And I know it's early in the week, but just

420
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Speaker 2: the one book I have pulled up right now, it's

421
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Speaker 2: it's shown that eighty nine percent of the money is

422
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 2: on the Panthers, but eighty four percent of the tickets

423
00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,399
Speaker 2: is on Houston, So apparently pro money is coming on

424
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,399
Speaker 2: this Carolina team. But I don't know. I need to

425
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Speaker 2: talk to some people because I just I would love

426
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Speaker 2: to hear what they're betting here. I just don't don't

427
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:08,680
Speaker 2: really see it here with this Panthers team.

428
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Speaker 1: It is. Yeah, it's it's very early in the week,

429
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Speaker 1: very early. We're gonna talk about the New York Jets

430
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Speaker 1: at you know, in quotes, the New York Giants. The

431
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Speaker 1: Giants are three point dogs. I feel like we missed

432
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Speaker 1: a little bit of an opportunity to take the Giants

433
00:22:26,280 --> 00:22:29,360
Speaker 1: last week more prominently, like we went four and one,

434
00:22:30,040 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 1: and so I'm not complaining about it. You really liked

435
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: the Giants, No, I'm not. You really liked the Giants

436
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:37,720
Speaker 1: last week. And I think we we sort of just

437
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,080
Speaker 1: didn't like the number in the contest. We felt like

438
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 1: we didn't like it at two and a half. We

439
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,760
Speaker 1: liked it better at three, So we passed. Here's my

440
00:22:44,800 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 1: hot take after reading Bill Barnwell on the front page

441
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 1: of ESPN dot com yesterday. One of my favorites, the

442
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 1: Jets defense is overrated. Here's why. Thirteen turnovers this season

443
00:22:58,119 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 1: so far versus sixteen of all of last season, but

444
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:04,320
Speaker 1: in a variety of other advanced stats, yards allowed for

445
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 1: drive points allowed for drive. They are middle of the pack,

446
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:12,000
Speaker 1: pretty mediocre, So if they didn't have the luck of

447
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:16,200
Speaker 1: the turnovers they've been creating, then they might have different

448
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 1: outcomes in some of these games that have made them

449
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 1: look so miraculous. With Zach Wilson a quarterback, makes me

450
00:23:23,800 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 1: wary of playing the Jets. But also Brian Dabell hasn't

451
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:31,399
Speaker 1: committed to Daniel Jones as the starter yet, so we

452
00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 1: kind of don't know what we're getting from the New

453
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,760
Speaker 1: York Football Giants.

454
00:23:35,600 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 2: And nerds wonder why these football players just want to

455
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 2: put them in lockers and beat the shit out of them. Well,

456
00:23:40,600 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 2: let's get those nerds, you know what Bill Barnwell, no,

457
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 2: it's I know where he's coming from. But dude, they

458
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 2: they dominated Mahomes, they dominated Jalen Hurts, and then they

459
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,159
Speaker 2: dominated Josh Allen. Like, yes, they've been lucky, dude, but

460
00:23:56,920 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure that's a good defense.

461
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 1: I didn't say they were a bad defense.

462
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter, Simon says. Simon says, Giants go grab

463
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 2: the three right now, Simon, we.

464
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 4: Do what sions a smash spot love Love Love the

465
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:16,880
Speaker 4: Giants plus three against the Jets at home, Daniel Jones

466
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 4: is about to lose his job like his team.

467
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:22,960
Speaker 2: His team looks better without him. The guys look more confident,

468
00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:24,679
Speaker 2: and I know they didn't really do much. People are

469
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 2: gonna be well, they didn't do much against Washington last week.

470
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 2: They had little players where they just missed where I

471
00:24:29,400 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 2: think like the more Taylor's playing in this offense will

472
00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 2: be there. So obviously, if Daniel Jones comes in, maybe

473
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 2: that changes my viewpoint a little bit here. But that's

474
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 2: just a good number. You're getting plus three at home

475
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 2: against Zach Wilson. I just I got it, Dote. I gotta,

476
00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 2: I gotta take this number for this Giants team. So

477
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 2: Simon says, I just think this number is gonna come

478
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,080
Speaker 2: down to two and a half two by kickoff. So

479
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 2: I'm making this mind. Simon says, just to grab this

480
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 2: important key number of three right now.

481
00:24:54,320 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: Start spreading the new Tyrod Taylor thirty two, twenty one

482
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,560
Speaker 1: and three against the spread. His look, the guy does

483
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 1: not make mistakes, and I think that's why every year

484
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,199
Speaker 1: he's sort of a guy who's going to continue to

485
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 1: be in the league. He's going to be a guy

486
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:11,520
Speaker 1: when teams are trying to figure out who they are.

487
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: You put him back there and he's not going to

488
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:18,159
Speaker 1: screw things up for you. And in the NFL, a

489
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: neutral play that gets you to the next down is

490
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 1: better than a negative play that makes the next down

491
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 1: much much harder. Ask the Bears about justin fields, and

492
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 1: ask anybody who's got a playmaking quarterback for the quarterback

493
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: who keeps you in rhythm, keeps you on script.

494
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 2: Like.

495
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,920
Speaker 1: You might not win as many games as you want to.

496
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 1: Your ceiling won't be as high, but your floor isn't

497
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:47,800
Speaker 1: as low. And Daniel Jones has just been dreadful and

498
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 1: making the bad plays. Tyrod Taylor is not going to

499
00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: screw up the offense for Brian Dable.

500
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, so right there. I told you the Jets they

501
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:57,600
Speaker 2: need a turnovers. That's what's been kind of great for them.

502
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:00,720
Speaker 2: And if it's Taylor who doesn't turn the ball over,

503
00:26:00,760 --> 00:26:02,679
Speaker 2: that's what I like that angle a lot with this

504
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,720
Speaker 2: Giants team. I just think their offense looks better with

505
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 2: him in there.

506
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:10,560
Speaker 1: See, you came around to the nerd tastic ways Jacksonville

507
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,359
Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh to.

508
00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:14,440
Speaker 2: Get the opponent they nameless, great faces.

509
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 1: I bet this immediately on Sunday night when it was

510
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: at two, then it got up to three. Yeah, now

511
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,879
Speaker 1: it's down to two and a half. It is a

512
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 1: pro Joe's game. The tickets around Jacksonville, the money's on

513
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 1: the Steelers. I'm trying to figure out you've been unenthusiastic

514
00:26:31,160 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 1: about this, but it's a raw ros spot. What a

515
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 1: raw rah Mike Tomlin spot.

516
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:42,240
Speaker 4: We win the game with this provel bodies right here today,

517
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,160
Speaker 4: ring y'all game today.

518
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 1: Every precedent we believe in is it backs betting Tomlin

519
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: and the Steelers in this spot. Eighteen five and three

520
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: against the spread as a home dog. Is Mike Tomlin

521
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:04,840
Speaker 1: seven thirty one and four overall as an underdog, most

522
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: profitable coach the past twenty years. By the way, that's

523
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: a sixty four and a half percent number against the spread.

524
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 4: Don't don't play Tennifer's oddly at all.

525
00:27:16,080 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 2: I saw a coup of y'all blinking though for real, no, no, gosh, well,

526
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:20,360
Speaker 2: I'll talk to you about it.

527
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 1: They were much more affected with Kenny Pickett and George Pickens.

528
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,840
Speaker 1: When Deontay Johnson was playing, took a lot of pressure

529
00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:31,439
Speaker 1: off Pickens. He runs great roots. We saw him be

530
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 1: very effective against the Rams. What do we do here?

531
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're in on. I told you I like this

532
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 2: Sunday and I said to people, get good though. I

533
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 2: said this number is gonna go up. That was my

534
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 2: whole point. Don't do what jad Chad did, which was

535
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: he betted too early. I said, just wait, I'll go up,

536
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 2: said two and a half. Now we'll take the number.

537
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 2: So yeah, another game where I hate it. But it's

538
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 2: when we can't avoid, Like if we're gonna keep doing

539
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 2: what we do, which is, you know, betting these trends,

540
00:27:55,760 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 2: these talent trends, then yeah, I'll play it. But across

541
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 2: that's the board. The Jaguars are better, but we saw

542
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 2: they do have weaknesses and that's that secondary and Derek

543
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,560
Speaker 2: Carr I think, threw for over three hundred yards on them.

544
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 2: Like there are opportunities there. Pittsburgh has the weapons. So

545
00:28:12,320 --> 00:28:14,280
Speaker 2: this is another game where keep my eye on the weather.

546
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 2: If it's if this is gonna be a trrenchial downpour,

547
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 2: bad weather, I probably won't have as much as I

548
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 2: plan on betting on Pittsburgh here, but if it's if

549
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,639
Speaker 2: it's all good, good throwing weather for Kenny, Yeah, I

550
00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 2: like I like the advantage for this Pittsburgh wide receivers

551
00:28:27,119 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 2: going against that secondary. Defensively, there's a lot of stuff

552
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 2: that front can do that will give the Jaguars problems.

553
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 2: The Jaguars don't have that great on no line. So

554
00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 2: you know, I got duped last week. Clearly Trevor Lawrence

555
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: wasn't as banged up. But this is like a game

556
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 2: right before their bye week where it's like they just

557
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:46,880
Speaker 2: got to make it to that bye week, right, get

558
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 2: it all the guys healthy, make it to another bye

559
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: week where this Pittsburgh team should not be overlooked. Like

560
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,560
Speaker 2: there's a reason they got what is it foreign to now?

561
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:58,239
Speaker 2: They got? They got some good wins. Definitely overreacted too

562
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 2: much to they lost, you know, that Week one to

563
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 2: forty nine ers. They lost Week two to the Browns team,

564
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: and we've seen you know, they're actually not as bad

565
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 2: as we thought they were those first couple of weeks.

566
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 2: Those other teams are actually pretty good. So don't don't

567
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,880
Speaker 2: hate it two and a half. Obviously, me and Chad,

568
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:18,240
Speaker 2: if this is up to three to three and a

569
00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 2: half in the contest, no brainer, play two and a

570
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,640
Speaker 2: half thought, don't mind taking that value right now.

571
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: I think the Jags will be a really interesting team

572
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: in the back half of the year because Doug Peterson

573
00:29:32,680 --> 00:29:35,920
Speaker 1: last year, Trevor Lawrence once he got into second half

574
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:39,920
Speaker 1: of the year a significantly different and better quarterback than

575
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 1: he was in the first half of the year. Doug

576
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 1: Peterson historically significantly better as a coach record wise against

577
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 1: the spread wise in the latter half of the year

578
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,280
Speaker 1: than he is in the first half of the year

579
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: in September October. So I think this Jaguars team we

580
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,880
Speaker 1: might be finding some value, especially if in this game

581
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,720
Speaker 1: they underperform or the Steelers find a way through their

582
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:12,000
Speaker 1: defense to steal another win. Speaking of raw Rah Mike

583
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 1: Tomlin spots, we took the Steelers in every spot that

584
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: we can. Matt Mitchell, we're bringing them back. Are action

585
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 1: engineer Dustin and his lovely voice singing his Ario Speedwagon

586
00:30:31,040 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 1: inspired song about Mike Tomlin and his raw Ras spots and.

587
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 2: Now a big strong drake.

588
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 1: I'm gonna for.

589
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 2: Away. We're gonna sore because I gotta bet Mike Tomline

590
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: catches for.

591
00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:59,600
Speaker 1: New Orleans at Indy Simon very tricky spot. Cults were

592
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 1: dogs now they're favorite. Remember teams in that scenario forty

593
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:07,480
Speaker 1: two to eighty one against the spread the past five years.

594
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,400
Speaker 1: Last week we bet New Orleans when they were dogs,

595
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 1: they ended up as the faves. We thought we had

596
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: a good number. Totally makes me sick to say this. Ireleen.

597
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 1: Saints wouldn't be surprised if they snuck in as a

598
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:28,200
Speaker 1: fifth pick in our contest. The defense is just really good,

599
00:31:28,680 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 1: like second most three and outs in the league, turnovers

600
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,800
Speaker 1: in every game. I don't see them not getting a

601
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 1: turnover against Minshew. Their opponents have a league low seventeen

602
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: point eight passer rating on throws of twenty yards or more.

603
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: We saw how many times Gardner Minshew threw picks against

604
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,120
Speaker 1: the Browns when he was trying to go downfield. The

605
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: problem is that Derek Carr is truly awful.

606
00:31:52,480 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't get away from it. It's like we're

607
00:31:55,280 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 2: supposed to take the Saints here, aren't we.

608
00:31:57,440 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 4: Yes.

609
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 2: Minshew's splits against zone and man are alarming. Like this guy,

610
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 2: he can look like an all pro when it's man,

611
00:32:06,320 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 2: but then when it's zone he is what he is

612
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 2: as a backup quarterback, Like he just cannot throw against zone.

613
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 2: So I don't know what the hell happened that Browns game.

614
00:32:15,280 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 2: Maybe it's just a game where they bang their heads

615
00:32:17,840 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: against Daffoy and Niners team that rode the high all

616
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 2: week and they just were unprepared against his Colts team.

617
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:26,560
Speaker 2: But yeah, that the refs gave the Browns that win,

618
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 2: Like the Colts should have won that game. Tons of

619
00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:34,720
Speaker 2: terrible calls went against them. And yes they're coming off

620
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 2: of loss year, but it still feels like the public's

621
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 2: find a little high on this Colts team, where the

622
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 2: fact that numbers flipped. I mean I normally would jump

623
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,280
Speaker 2: right in on the Saints when I'm gonna wait on

624
00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 2: this and talk to some people like because it could

625
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 2: be really smart money coming on the Colts team and

626
00:32:50,640 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 2: they have a read here. But I'm right there with Chad.

627
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 2: It's like I'm getting the better defense as a dog.

628
00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:57,440
Speaker 2: I'm getting the better quarterback as a dog. I know

629
00:32:57,480 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 2: it's not saying much compared to Minshew, but Derek Carr,

630
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 2: the biggest issues are those red zones, man, And it

631
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 2: looked like he kind of figured some stuff out last week,

632
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 2: like they kind of did some things where you know,

633
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,400
Speaker 2: as much I would love to blame him for having

634
00:33:12,400 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 2: a shitty game It's like the guy dropped the tight

635
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:15,800
Speaker 2: end in the back of the end zone at the

636
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 2: end of the game. Like, that's not Derek's fault. He

637
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,320
Speaker 2: made the right read, made a good throw. It's football.

638
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,640
Speaker 2: Those players just happened. So feel terrible for the guy.

639
00:33:22,720 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 2: But it was right there. It was right there to

640
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 2: lane on one like they would have gone for two.

641
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 2: In my mind, there was no doubt they were gonna

642
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 2: go for two if they had scored that touchdown, and

643
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,040
Speaker 2: that felt like that game was going to land right

644
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,280
Speaker 2: on that number. So kind of sickening because we had

645
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 2: good value last week didn't come through. Maybe I'm chasing

646
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 2: it here, but it's like the value is on the Saints.

647
00:33:42,920 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 2: I'm just I'm gonna wait talk to some guys see

648
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 2: what they're betting here. Just because it's another game, it

649
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 2: just feels a little too easy and it doesn't make

650
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 2: sense this number.

651
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 1: Well, the problem is the defense is so good and

652
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: Derek Carr through his career has been serviceable enough. Then

653
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: it makes you feel like there's competence and that they

654
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 1: can sneak one in, especially against a team like this,

655
00:34:05,360 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 1: or especially at home against the Jags. And look, they

656
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,439
Speaker 1: should have had that game, right, there were a couple

657
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:15,320
Speaker 1: of bad plays and then right at the worst moments,

658
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 1: their defense revealed and the Jags moved down the field

659
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:24,680
Speaker 1: and you know, Tron Matthew got beat in a really

660
00:34:24,719 --> 00:34:27,080
Speaker 1: bad spot in the final two minutes, but then they

661
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 1: were able to move the ball down the field again

662
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: and get into that spot to score a touchdown. So

663
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 1: there's no reason for us not to back the Saints

664
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: like that. Could be the better team here, just hard

665
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 1: to do it.

666
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're just the better coaching is on the colt side,

667
00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 2: and we know that for a fact. It's like, yeah,

668
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 2: we have the proof of them pointing Dennis Allen is

669
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,760
Speaker 2: he's a bad head coach. He's the worst head coach

670
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,879
Speaker 2: we've ever seen him football technically, ats record wise. So

671
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,920
Speaker 2: that's that's definitely the big pushback here from a lot

672
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:55,360
Speaker 2: of people.

673
00:34:55,880 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, you're right, it is not a great spot,

674
00:35:02,880 --> 00:35:07,719
Speaker 1: all right. Your Philadelphia Eagles had a big win on

675
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 1: Monday night. On Sunday night, I mean against Miami. They're

676
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 1: now going on the road. We don't know what's going

677
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: on with Jalen Hurts. Has he hurt or is he

678
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,360
Speaker 1: not playing at Washington? The numbers at six and a half.

679
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 1: We talked about this on Sunday. We'd like to wait

680
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 1: for it to get to seven. I feel like, if

681
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:31,040
Speaker 1: I were to self scout our season so far, the

682
00:35:31,080 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 1: biggest sort of misses we've had is we haven't been

683
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 1: as aggressive this year as we have in the past

684
00:35:38,280 --> 00:35:40,759
Speaker 1: taking home dogs. We've been a little more nervous about

685
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 1: it than we have in the past, a little more

686
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:46,759
Speaker 1: gun shy. This to me feels like a spot where

687
00:35:46,760 --> 00:35:48,080
Speaker 1: you're gonna want to take Washington.

688
00:35:50,239 --> 00:35:52,239
Speaker 2: I think we're on like five home dogs this week, ched,

689
00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 2: are you feeling all right?

690
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:57,399
Speaker 1: I mean the big home dogs, like we ignored. We've

691
00:35:57,400 --> 00:36:00,320
Speaker 1: ignored Arizona a couple times in the content is a

692
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 1: big home dog. We ignored Miami last week as a

693
00:36:03,640 --> 00:36:05,800
Speaker 1: big home dog. I don't mean the short home dogs.

694
00:36:05,840 --> 00:36:11,280
Speaker 1: I mean like the touchdown nearly touchdown, or more home dogs.

695
00:36:11,600 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 2: We missed a lot of big favorites too. That you

696
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 2: won't let me bet big favorites either, Chad, you can't

697
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:17,400
Speaker 2: have it both ways. Like I've loved Miami's these big favorites,

698
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:19,279
Speaker 2: and every week you're just like the numbers two big

699
00:36:19,320 --> 00:36:21,879
Speaker 2: and we don't take it. I mean it's tough. We're

700
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 2: doing a bouncing act here.

701
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,840
Speaker 1: Can I tell something else? I think there is something

702
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 1: wrong with me this week, Like I have been cloudy

703
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 1: the whole freaking week, Like I'm forgetting things, I'm miss

704
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: typing things. I honestly, I do think that it might

705
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: be there might be something wrong with me.

706
00:36:39,640 --> 00:36:41,040
Speaker 2: You just had a weekend with the boys. You'll be

707
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,360
Speaker 2: all right. Let's go here with Washington. I mean, we

708
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 2: don't have a choice. Like the visional home Dog, the

709
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:51,560
Speaker 2: hype is very high on the Eagles right now. Washington

710
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 2: is a good bi low spot. They just got embarrassed

711
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 2: tons of turnovers. Sam. I think I think he's on pace.

712
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,239
Speaker 2: They're like blow out the record that Carr's brothers set

713
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 2: David Carr years ago, the sack record. Eagles front four

714
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: huge advantage. Like There's nothing I can find with Washington

715
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 2: that gives me hope other than the fact that they

716
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 2: technically usually play these games very close. I think they

717
00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 2: already played this year, and I think the Eagles won

718
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:24,279
Speaker 2: by three really close matchups. Usually it's it's tough. It

719
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 2: feels like I need to talk to more guys because

720
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:27,799
Speaker 2: it feels like we're doing the Chargers thing from last

721
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:30,280
Speaker 2: week where it's just like, well, these teams always played close,

722
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 2: let's just take the number here. But I just I

723
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,719
Speaker 2: like the way Washington matches up with the Eagles, and

724
00:37:36,719 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 2: then the Eagles just there's something not right, like Hurts

725
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,480
Speaker 2: and his turnovers, like all these little things. Yes, it

726
00:37:43,520 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 2: was incredible he was able to overcome throwing a pick

727
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:50,319
Speaker 2: six and they won by fourteen against Miami. But it's just, man,

728
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 2: you can't get away with that kind of stuff, like

729
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:54,399
Speaker 2: throwing those turnovers, like he had a fumble I think

730
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 2: on the Eagles thirty yard line. So yeah, like it's

731
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 2: pain full to do here, people, but we're going by

732
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 2: the book. We're going what gets us to sixty percent

733
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 2: every year. This is a spot like this is a

734
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 2: nice spot to take. Washington plus six and a half,

735
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,359
Speaker 2: we'll love if it gets the seven. I just don't

736
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,040
Speaker 2: think the pros are gonna let it get there. So

737
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 2: once again, I'll throw a little on the six and

738
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 2: a half. But don't be shocked if the Star big balls,

739
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 2: big balls Beck come Thursday.

740
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: It feels like it might be. And Evan had a

741
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 1: great stat last week about division games. The dogs in

742
00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:37,920
Speaker 1: division games, the past sixty years, something like sixty games

743
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 1: over five hundred against the spread, and when the number

744
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:49,879
Speaker 1: moves higher that that becomes an even bigger discrepancy. I mean,

745
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:52,759
Speaker 1: it's the reason why we liked Atlanta last week, but

746
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,520
Speaker 1: it's also the reason why we liked the Chargers last week,

747
00:38:57,040 --> 00:38:59,400
Speaker 1: and so that's what makes it so scary. But I

748
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: do think, yeah, we kind of got to go with

749
00:39:03,080 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 1: Washington here.

750
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, big, big week for home dogs, like a lot

751
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,959
Speaker 2: of public rover reaction, which they won't learn their lesson.

752
00:39:10,000 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 2: I mean, they got burned horribly last week, and I

753
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:14,479
Speaker 2: think they're going to walk right into it again this week.

754
00:39:14,480 --> 00:39:17,440
Speaker 2: Like there's just a lot of favorites where the public

755
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,239
Speaker 2: receives them as being much better than the team they're

756
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 2: playing against. Her It's like these teams are much closer

757
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:25,000
Speaker 2: than people realize. So yeah, this this week, we're definitely

758
00:39:25,000 --> 00:39:26,839
Speaker 2: heavy on home dogs. Right now.

759
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:31,320
Speaker 1: The status overall dogs and division games are sixty games

760
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:36,160
Speaker 1: above five hundred against the spread the last decade, forty

761
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: games since twenty twenty and since twenty fifteen. Home No,

762
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:48,440
Speaker 1: since that doesn't apply. It's just the first one that matters.

763
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: But geez, Louise I know it's another one, right, Simon,

764
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 1: I see you laughing at me. It's like, I'm still foggy.

765
00:39:55,120 --> 00:39:56,960
Speaker 1: I don't know what I don't know what the hell's

766
00:39:57,040 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 1: going on here, But yeah, we're going to be on Washington.

767
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 1: That's really the bottom line. On Sunday night, we talked

768
00:40:06,239 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 1: about this game Cleveland at Seattle. It was at two

769
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:12,279
Speaker 1: and a half. It's been bet up to three. I

770
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 1: bet this at two and a half. I bet Seattle

771
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. Shout out to Brandon Anderson

772
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:21,720
Speaker 1: who had this as one of his hot reads. Seattle

773
00:40:21,719 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 1: defense is just really good against the run, and that

774
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 1: may be all the Browns can do because we don't

775
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 1: know what's happening with DeShawn or if PJ. Walker is

776
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,040
Speaker 1: going to play. The money is coming in on the Seattle.

777
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 1: It's not the public on Seattle. It's not the public

778
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:40,239
Speaker 1: backing the Seahawks. And you mentioned it. You look at

779
00:40:40,280 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 1: that Colts game. The Colts should have beaten the Browns

780
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,320
Speaker 1: like they didn't win because PJ. Walker was so great.

781
00:40:46,640 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 1: They won because there were three pass interference slash defensive

782
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 1: holding calls on the final drive that gave the Browns

783
00:40:56,160 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 1: the game. It just did, so I bet two and

784
00:41:00,560 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 1: a half. I don't know how you're gonna feel about

785
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 1: Seattle at minus three in the contest, but I did

786
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:08,080
Speaker 1: like Seattle minus three.

787
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 2: I wouldn't do it this. This d line is going

788
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 2: to have a field day with this with Seattle front,

789
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:18,359
Speaker 2: Like this is a bad front, Gino. If he's off

790
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 2: his spot, he's useless. The guy can't be thrown off

791
00:41:21,600 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 2: his spot. He's just a guy that likes to be

792
00:41:23,040 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 2: in rhythm. Uh, I get it, though, Like Seahawks, you're

793
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 2: catching her to three. You're playing what you presume to

794
00:41:29,840 --> 00:41:32,040
Speaker 2: be a backup quarterback in PGA or either this Deshaun.

795
00:41:32,080 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 2: Deshaun's looked like ass all year anyway, It's not like

796
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:36,880
Speaker 2: it's a great number. So I guess we can just

797
00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:39,760
Speaker 2: pass on it, because, yeah, I'll take the good defense

798
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:42,399
Speaker 2: with a three. Probably I'll throw someone on the under here,

799
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:46,360
Speaker 2: Like Seahawks have a good defense as well. Last week

800
00:41:47,040 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 2: just was just a bad week for this this Browns defense. Like,

801
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 2: I don't I don't think you know they were going

802
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,480
Speaker 2: to be breaking all the world records. But did I

803
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:58,880
Speaker 2: see Minshew having a career day against them? No? Like

804
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 2: that's just football, though, things happen like that bad scheme.

805
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:07,760
Speaker 2: You expect the Browns here to come with better prepared

806
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:12,120
Speaker 2: right the Seahawks team, and I believe they had. I

807
00:42:12,120 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: believe the Cardinals had something weird stat I think Edvan

808
00:42:14,600 --> 00:42:15,880
Speaker 2: was one of the posts that they were like plus

809
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 2: three and turnover margin in that game against the Seahawks,

810
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:21,840
Speaker 2: yet they still lost like double digits, which happened.

811
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:25,040
Speaker 1: Team is a seven point dog or higher who are

812
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 1: plus three or better in the turnover battle, which the

813
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:31,480
Speaker 1: Cardinals were one hundred and sixty five and six and

814
00:42:31,760 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 1: three against the spread. So the Cars are now one

815
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 1: of those six teams.

816
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:40,479
Speaker 2: So that's what's making me nurse by the Seahawks teams.

817
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,320
Speaker 2: They just might be one of those incredibly lucky teams

818
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, not only they they got talent,

819
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 2: but they have a lot of luck on their side.

820
00:42:48,160 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll probably just wait again, I have no

821
00:42:51,360 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 2: money in this game, yet it gets a three and

822
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 2: a half no brainer, Like, I'll be all over this team,

823
00:42:57,320 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 2: but at three, my guy Chatty already likes to see aux.

824
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 2: I'll just wait on this one. But definitely definitely not

825
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 2: one that'll be one of our five.

826
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 1: Baltimore at Arizona Arizona plus eight and a half. And

827
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 1: this is what I was just talking about, Like we've

828
00:43:10,280 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 1: been hesitant to bet bigger home dogs. We talked a

829
00:43:13,080 --> 00:43:17,120
Speaker 1: little bit about about this on Sunday night. I just

830
00:43:17,239 --> 00:43:20,680
Speaker 1: you just mentioned the crazy stat I'll repeat it. In

831
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy four games in the Wild Card era,

832
00:43:27,960 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 1: teams that were seven point dogs or more so. That

833
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 1: was the Cardinals on Sunday who had a three a

834
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 1: plus three or better turnover margin. That was the Cars

835
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,439
Speaker 1: as well. They were one hundred and sixty five six

836
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 1: and three against the spread. So the Cars are now

837
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:46,399
Speaker 1: one of the teams that lost. Right, feels like a

838
00:43:46,440 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 1: smashed spot for the Cardinals. Huge home dogs. Baltimore just

839
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:53,359
Speaker 1: dominated one of the most public teams in football. All

840
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 1: the tickets are on Baltimore signing.

841
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, just a game. Don't be shocked, Bill, this one

842
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 2: of our five. It's I just said, it's a good spot.

843
00:44:03,280 --> 00:44:05,960
Speaker 2: I already talked about Cardinals first half. You gotta bet it.

844
00:44:07,040 --> 00:44:11,400
Speaker 2: You know, they were a weird team, man Like they

845
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:14,120
Speaker 2: they come out so well prepared and they do well

846
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:16,000
Speaker 2: in the first half and in the second half they

847
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:18,920
Speaker 2: just lay, They lay these eggs, like their offense falls

848
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 2: into a shell of itself. Zach Ertz's I mean, he's

849
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:25,920
Speaker 2: been money for them on third downs this year. They

850
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 2: just put them an ir that's a big deal. Like

851
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 2: you're taking away a guy that's been a safety blanket

852
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:35,360
Speaker 2: for them on third downs, like he's gone, James Conner's gone.

853
00:44:36,320 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 2: This is already a team that was lacking talent on offense.

854
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 2: Now you're taking away two of their better weapons. So

855
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 2: I hate it where it's like me and Chad were

856
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,240
Speaker 2: supposed to take Arizona here. Everything about this is saying

857
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:51,319
Speaker 2: take Arizona this this game here. If the Ravens win this,

858
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 2: they go on a three game homestead after this, like

859
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 2: it's they they're definitely looking ahead to that. Where it's

860
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:58,439
Speaker 2: just like we just got to get through this one

861
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 2: more road game on the shitty ass field they have

862
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:03,880
Speaker 2: down in Arizona where everyone complains about that damn field.

863
00:45:03,920 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 2: But I hate it. Make me sick, Chad, But we're

864
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:09,919
Speaker 2: supposed to take day and a half here. I got

865
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:11,959
Speaker 2: this number at seven, we're getting a point a half

866
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 2: of value. You know, don't don't go crazy bat in

867
00:45:16,239 --> 00:45:18,680
Speaker 2: this one right now. But like, I've definitely placed a

868
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:20,319
Speaker 2: decent amount of eight and a half right now, but

869
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 2: wouldn't wouldn't be shocked to see this number go up

870
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 2: just because they do have such serious injuries on that

871
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: Arizona sign. But in the back of my mind taking

872
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:32,879
Speaker 2: it now because what if Kyler comes back? What if

873
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 2: he does come back for this game? And yeah, I

874
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 2: get it, he could be rusty all that other stuff,

875
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:39,719
Speaker 2: but it's like, people forget this guy is such an

876
00:45:39,760 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 2: insane weapon. To know that we have him with eight

877
00:45:43,360 --> 00:45:46,480
Speaker 2: and a half points, it feels pretty damn good. So

878
00:45:46,520 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 2: it's it's definitely a bet I'm making right now, but

879
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 2: I'm not going too crazy on it. As we're sitting here.

880
00:45:50,880 --> 00:46:02,319
Speaker 1: On Tuesday, you mentioned luck right Cincinnati at San Francisco,

881
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 1: the Niners five and a half point favorites Bengals coming

882
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 1: off a bye. The Niners had a lot of chances

883
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 1: against Minnesota to wrap up a dirty, ugly game, three turnovers.

884
00:46:13,239 --> 00:46:17,160
Speaker 1: That first half sixty yard touchdown that you and I

885
00:46:17,200 --> 00:46:22,080
Speaker 1: have talked about that Steve Wilke's uncharacteristically blitzes leads to

886
00:46:22,120 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 1: the touchdown. They missed the field goal. This will be

887
00:46:25,280 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 1: the biggest Luck Luck Rankings matchup of the week, it'll

888
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:33,520
Speaker 1: be a twenty six point difference between San Francisco and Cincy.

889
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,319
Speaker 1: It's a little scary because we love Joe Burrow. We

890
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:42,320
Speaker 1: love Joe Burrow off a bye. He's great as an underdog.

891
00:46:43,000 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 1: But the numbers are going to say back Cincinnati at

892
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,480
Speaker 1: under back, San Francisco at under six.

893
00:46:51,320 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 2: Yeah. And the big friend to me, like looking on

894
00:46:53,440 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 2: the field is the defenses have found something here in

895
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 2: the last two weeks. And we know it's a copycat league.

896
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 2: So if you will't watch the Browns again, the Browns

897
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 2: were doing was they were rushing three, four guys and

898
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 2: then dropping their rest into a coverage and that's exactly

899
00:47:08,640 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 2: what the Vikings did against Perdy. It was just simply

900
00:47:13,239 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 2: party actually can scramble. So what these teams have been

901
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:17,759
Speaker 2: doing is they will rush three and you have to

902
00:47:17,760 --> 00:47:20,239
Speaker 2: that fourth defender drop into a zone reading position where

903
00:47:20,280 --> 00:47:22,560
Speaker 2: he's like, okay, if he's gonna rush out, I'll pick

904
00:47:22,600 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 2: him up, or if he tries to move outside the pocket,

905
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,400
Speaker 2: I'll go through a pressure on him. So the book,

906
00:47:27,560 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 2: the book might be out on Purdy Chat like I

907
00:47:29,800 --> 00:47:32,880
Speaker 2: talk all the time, like the venture they were going

908
00:47:32,960 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 2: to figure him out. I said it all offseason. These

909
00:47:35,000 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 2: guys have tape. They're going to figure out eventually what

910
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 2: this kid does not like, and they're going to take

911
00:47:39,800 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 2: away the things he does like. Now he's missing Debo,

912
00:47:43,520 --> 00:47:47,279
Speaker 2: he's missing arguably the best tackle on all football. That's

913
00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:50,359
Speaker 2: not Perdy's fault, like, that's not scheme like, that's that's

914
00:47:50,400 --> 00:47:52,799
Speaker 2: a real thing. You're taking away his key positions here.

915
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, the Bengals were supposed to take him here

916
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:58,120
Speaker 2: like it was plus six. It's plus five and a

917
00:47:58,160 --> 00:48:01,279
Speaker 2: half now. But I can't stopped thinking about all Joe

918
00:48:01,280 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 2: burrow struggles. He's not the quarterback he's been these past

919
00:48:04,239 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 2: couple of seasons. Go look at his balls downfield. He

920
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:10,279
Speaker 2: is terrible at throwing the ball twenty plus yards downfield.

921
00:48:10,320 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 2: So we have so many damn home teams. That was

922
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:14,759
Speaker 2: making me sicker or it feels like I need a

923
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,840
Speaker 2: force in a road team. But yeah, Chad's right, Like

924
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,560
Speaker 2: the Lions probably moved too much. The Lions probably shifted

925
00:48:20,600 --> 00:48:22,640
Speaker 2: to the diye in the forty nine ers. I mean

926
00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 2: they to talk to some people, watch more film because

927
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 2: I'm I am worried about party like that. Those defensive

928
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,879
Speaker 2: sets were real. He had easy reads, and he wasn't

929
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,239
Speaker 2: taking the easy read. He was forcing the ball downfield

930
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:39,600
Speaker 2: into coverage. Not what I want to see here. So yeah,

931
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 2: I'm with you. Chad likes it's telling me we should

932
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:44,120
Speaker 2: take the forty nine ers, But I'm gonna I'm gonna

933
00:48:44,120 --> 00:48:45,360
Speaker 2: wait on this one.

934
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,759
Speaker 1: I am very excited for sharp calls this week. I'm

935
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 1: excited for sharp calls when they say, oh my god,

936
00:48:51,719 --> 00:48:54,320
Speaker 1: Chad spot on about the Cowboys. And I'm excited to

937
00:48:54,320 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 1: see the reaction to some of these games where where

938
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 1: we know the math is saying one thing and our

939
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:04,239
Speaker 1: hearts might be saying another thing, and if they can

940
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 1: help us tip the scales a little bit. The last

941
00:49:07,640 --> 00:49:11,480
Speaker 1: game that I think is the biggest challenge, which I

942
00:49:11,560 --> 00:49:23,919
Speaker 1: know we're gonna have to do, Denver plus eight home

943
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 1: dog against Kansas City. I did bet it at this number.

944
00:49:29,200 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 1: It was eight and a half on Sunday. Yeah, the

945
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 1: only reason we were waiting is we were hoping it

946
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 1: might go a little bit higher. It's moved in the

947
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:41,479
Speaker 1: direction of the Broncos, not surprising massive pros Joe's game

948
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:47,839
Speaker 1: right now. It moved down to seven and a half

949
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 1: went back up to eight. It's toggling between those two numbers,

950
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,719
Speaker 1: at least from what I've seen all day here on Tuesday.

951
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:57,240
Speaker 1: That's why I took the eight. Are you still feeling

952
00:49:57,320 --> 00:50:00,319
Speaker 1: like this is a game that we agree on on

953
00:50:00,360 --> 00:50:03,319
Speaker 1: Sunday night, Like we're looking at this and we got

954
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: to take the Broncos.

955
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 2: Yeah it sucks though, but yeah, because the Chiefs got

956
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:11,320
Speaker 2: to Chiefs. You just might have the best defense on football.

957
00:50:11,360 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 2: We've been saying that since whatever it was Week two,

958
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:15,799
Speaker 2: where they've just looked like the most complete defense. But

959
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:18,480
Speaker 2: the guy I had just put a lot of stock

960
00:50:18,600 --> 00:50:21,439
Speaker 2: in on their defense, Bolton, He's their linebacker. The kid's

961
00:50:21,440 --> 00:50:23,799
Speaker 2: been an absolute stud. He's not gonna be in this game.

962
00:50:23,840 --> 00:50:25,919
Speaker 2: He dislocated his wrists. He's going to miss this game,

963
00:50:25,920 --> 00:50:30,120
Speaker 2: which that should favor for a month. Yeah, that that's

964
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 2: to me. That should be a big deal. Like I

965
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 2: put him right up there as one of the best

966
00:50:33,160 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 2: linebackers in all football. So yeah, Chad, like not shocking

967
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:41,840
Speaker 2: the Pros came in on this number. I was hoping

968
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:46,279
Speaker 2: this would go up. But we do this every time.

969
00:50:46,800 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 2: We take Denver every time here in this spot, and

970
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 2: nothing has changed. Here we're getting a seven and a

971
00:50:52,239 --> 00:50:55,200
Speaker 2: half home divisional dog. Chad's already hit you with all

972
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:57,960
Speaker 2: the stats. It's just it's by the book. It's what

973
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 2: you're supposed to do. Here, we can't avoid it. All

974
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:03,480
Speaker 2: these home dogs this week, we just can't. We can't

975
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:05,880
Speaker 2: avoid them. Like it's another one. We just we gotta

976
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:06,359
Speaker 2: take it.

977
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:12,160
Speaker 1: Well, here's the thing, like, look, we bet all these

978
00:51:12,160 --> 00:51:16,120
Speaker 1: home dogs. We bet the big home dogs in theory,

979
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 1: not in theory. In practice, you win these fifty five

980
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:22,239
Speaker 1: to sixty percent of the time. So it doesn't mean

981
00:51:22,640 --> 00:51:26,320
Speaker 1: we believe we're gonna sweep the board with Denver plus

982
00:51:26,320 --> 00:51:29,759
Speaker 1: eight or Arizona plus eight and a half or Washington

983
00:51:30,160 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 1: plus six and a half. Right forgetting around, right, Like

984
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 1: you know we're we're going we expect to win two

985
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 1: of those three games when we're betting those big dogs.

986
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 1: We don't expect to in all of them, but the

987
00:51:44,600 --> 00:51:47,919
Speaker 1: expectations will win two of those three games. But you'll

988
00:51:47,960 --> 00:51:53,800
Speaker 1: win the numbers when you're your misery, when you were like, yeah,

989
00:51:54,760 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 1: we got to do it.

990
00:51:56,640 --> 00:51:58,440
Speaker 2: I just love the Chiefs. The Chiefs are so good

991
00:51:58,480 --> 00:52:01,320
Speaker 2: on film. No defense spags got them playing out of

992
00:52:01,320 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 2: their mind. Offensively, like, yeah, take away at Kelsey, that

993
00:52:05,440 --> 00:52:08,160
Speaker 2: team's gonna fall apart. But the dudes, the dudes humming

994
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:10,520
Speaker 2: right now with Mahomes. It's just they're just so in sync.

995
00:52:10,600 --> 00:52:11,320
Speaker 2: It's ridiculous.

996
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 1: And I don't know.

997
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:15,200
Speaker 2: No Taylor Swift hopefully no Taylor Swift and Denver hopefully.

998
00:52:15,800 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 1: I know because she is. She's a shining light. Everywhere

999
00:52:19,480 --> 00:52:26,719
Speaker 1: she goes. She brings joy, optimism, goodwill, good cheer, and

1000
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:28,720
Speaker 1: good vibes for Travis Kelcey.

1001
00:52:29,719 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 2: No comment Chicago.

1002
00:52:32,080 --> 00:52:35,560
Speaker 1: Bears at the LA Chargers Treagers are eating and a

1003
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:37,400
Speaker 1: half point favorites on Sunday Night football.

1004
00:52:38,040 --> 00:52:39,640
Speaker 2: I don't have a fee moving. We'll talk about this

1005
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:41,799
Speaker 2: one maybe on Thursday. I got I got nothing on this.

1006
00:52:42,200 --> 00:52:45,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, It's like in my notes, I just wrote, no thanks.

1007
00:52:46,440 --> 00:52:48,320
Speaker 2: We're supposed to take We're supposed to take the Bears,

1008
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 2: but I have no idea what to do with it.

1009
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:51,400
Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with it either. Believe

1010
00:52:51,440 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 1: you me. I've had more than one conversation about QB

1011
00:52:56,120 --> 00:52:58,600
Speaker 1: one versus QB two on the Chicago Bears in the past.

1012
00:52:58,840 --> 00:53:06,040
Speaker 2: Jeez, what a sad, sad life of their stands.

1013
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: That might be when my head is so screwed right now,

1014
00:53:08,920 --> 00:53:11,000
Speaker 1: no joke. I was on the phone with my buddy

1015
00:53:11,000 --> 00:53:14,440
Speaker 1: this morning, who I was with in Columbus this weekend.

1016
00:53:15,080 --> 00:53:19,280
Speaker 1: He was trying to ignore a call from the CFO

1017
00:53:19,320 --> 00:53:23,319
Speaker 1: at his company so we could finish our conversation about

1018
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:29,479
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears quarterback situation. We just we just can't

1019
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:31,360
Speaker 1: get off it. We got a lot of deep feelings

1020
00:53:31,360 --> 00:53:36,000
Speaker 1: about it. Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Detroit Lions Monday

1021
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:39,600
Speaker 1: night football. This is a knee caps for dinner game

1022
00:53:39,640 --> 00:53:43,239
Speaker 1: for Dan Campbell. He's coming off a loss, huge favorite.

1023
00:53:43,480 --> 00:53:45,400
Speaker 3: So this team, Detroit, We're gonna kick you in the

1024
00:53:45,400 --> 00:53:47,680
Speaker 3: teeth and when you punch its, we're gonna smile at you.

1025
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 3: And when you knock us down, we're gonna get up.

1026
00:53:50,040 --> 00:53:51,279
Speaker 3: And on the way up, we're going to buy a

1027
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:54,160
Speaker 3: kneecap off all right, We're gonna take your other kneecap

1028
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:56,840
Speaker 3: before long, where they're going to be the last one standing.

1029
00:53:57,080 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 1: You said on Sunday, I think you said it might

1030
00:53:58,960 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 1: be time to take a piece of life, even at

1031
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:02,520
Speaker 1: this big of a number. I don't know that this

1032
00:54:02,600 --> 00:54:05,960
Speaker 1: is a contest play, especially not on a Monday night,

1033
00:54:06,840 --> 00:54:08,320
Speaker 1: but I don't know if you still have strong feelings

1034
00:54:08,320 --> 00:54:08,680
Speaker 1: about it.

1035
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:10,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, through a little in a seven and a half.

1036
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:12,640
Speaker 2: It's up to eight eight and a half in some

1037
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 2: books now, and it's I just know a real read.

1038
00:54:17,520 --> 00:54:19,440
Speaker 2: If you do like the Raiders, you could get a

1039
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:21,439
Speaker 2: good number because Jimmy g could come back and maybe

1040
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:25,600
Speaker 2: the line will move that will benefit you. But it

1041
00:54:25,640 --> 00:54:27,960
Speaker 2: feels like we know what Detroit is. They're they're really

1042
00:54:27,960 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 2: talented team, They're well coached, and I don't think I

1043
00:54:32,719 --> 00:54:34,600
Speaker 2: don't I just don't see them laying another egg after

1044
00:54:34,640 --> 00:54:37,839
Speaker 2: such a bad game last week. But yeah, Chad's right

1045
00:54:37,920 --> 00:54:40,200
Speaker 2: like this, this is not one of my five favorite bets.

1046
00:54:40,760 --> 00:54:46,320
Speaker 2: Happiest stay away from it.

1047
00:54:46,320 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 1: It's interesting. I'm looking at our games right now. Amongst

1048
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:55,760
Speaker 1: our favorite bets, we we the Royal. We love Dallas

1049
00:54:55,800 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 1: minus six. We're going to keep an eye on Green Bay,

1050
00:55:03,239 --> 00:55:08,799
Speaker 1: see how that goes. We you like Miami minus nine

1051
00:55:08,840 --> 00:55:10,839
Speaker 1: and a half is a huge favorite, and by the way,

1052
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: I have not been hesitant to put in huge favorites.

1053
00:55:13,200 --> 00:55:15,520
Speaker 1: We talked a lot about Miami is a huge favorite

1054
00:55:15,560 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, and I think I was on board.

1055
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:21,440
Speaker 1: We decided not to do it collectively. Okay, do you

1056
00:55:21,440 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 1: have a different memory of that conversation?

1057
00:55:23,160 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it doesn't even matter.

1058
00:55:24,600 --> 00:55:27,720
Speaker 1: The past is the past, dude, You're still Mike Tomlin

1059
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 1: Simon says, is New York Giants plus three. Uh, we

1060
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:34,840
Speaker 1: like the Steelers plus two and a half. We like

1061
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:39,160
Speaker 1: plus one, Washington plus six and a half, Arizona plus

1062
00:55:39,160 --> 00:55:41,399
Speaker 1: eight and a half. We lean San Francisco minus five

1063
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 1: and a half, Denver plus eight. Holy moly, that's that

1064
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:50,799
Speaker 1: is a ugly. That is a lineup of of not that,

1065
00:55:50,800 --> 00:55:55,040
Speaker 1: that is a lineup of moral stinktitude right there on

1066
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 1: stink Atude. As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented

1067
00:55:59,719 --> 00:56:02,279
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1068
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:05,120
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1069
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:07,359
Speaker 1: than with anyone else. Every day they power up the

1070
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:09,680
Speaker 1: odds on hundreds of bets to give you a chance

1071
00:56:09,719 --> 00:56:13,280
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1072
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:16,080
Speaker 1: your winnings and even parlays, and they don't stop there.

1073
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:18,240
Speaker 1: Keep an eye out for their biggest and best odds

1074
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:21,840
Speaker 1: with the incredible Souper Boost. Check out the boosts and

1075
00:56:21,880 --> 00:56:24,799
Speaker 1: see why it's never ordinary at bet three sixty five

1076
00:56:24,880 --> 00:56:28,880
Speaker 1: must be twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa,

1077
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:32,840
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

1078
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred Gambler or one eight

1079
00:56:35,760 --> 00:56:39,280
Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and conditions and restrictions apply.

1080
00:56:39,440 --> 00:56:41,280
Speaker 1: Be sure to catch our next episode of the Favorites

1081
00:56:41,360 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 1: live on the Action Network YouTube page this Thursday at

1082
00:56:45,520 --> 00:56:50,320
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern. Thank you for making us the number

1083
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:54,240
Speaker 1: one sports betting podcast and for keeping us there all

1084
00:56:54,560 --> 00:56:58,000
Speaker 1: season long. That is no joke, folks, We truly appreciate it.

1085
00:56:58,320 --> 00:57:01,359
Speaker 1: You download us from Spotify, app, podcast wherever you get

1086
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:03,680
Speaker 1: your podcast. Then you rate, review, subscribe, you leave us

1087
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 1: five stars, you say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

1088
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:17,760
Speaker 1: Until Thursday at eleven am Eastern. Love you. Action Network

1089
00:57:17,840 --> 00:57:21,920
Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you

1090
00:57:22,000 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 1: care about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty

1091
00:57:25,160 --> 00:57:27,360
Speaker 1: four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler