WEBVTT - The Riskies! 2025 Edition

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<v Speaker 1>Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making

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<v Speaker 1>better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.

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<v Speaker 2>And I'm Nate Silver. Now today in the show, it

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<v Speaker 2>is the annual edition of the Riskies.

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<v Speaker 1>Use.

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<v Speaker 2>There are awards for the best and worst decisions of

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<v Speaker 2>the year from kind of a gambling slash game, theory, lens,

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit of poker, a little bit of sports,

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit of politics, just the usual Nate Emeria tactics. Marie,

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<v Speaker 2>are you are you excited?

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<v Speaker 1>I am excited, Nate. I love handing out awards, especially

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<v Speaker 1>for bad decision making. And there have been a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of bad decisions this year.

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<v Speaker 2>A record number. I mean, it's a world accelerates. Were

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<v Speaker 2>the more than bad decisions last year? I don't know,

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>We've we've had some pretty bad decision years. But yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>let's let's get into the risk case and we can

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<v Speaker 1>we can maybe our listeners can compare to last year

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<v Speaker 1>to see which year was worse.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, no, I mean, we have we have a new president.

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<v Speaker 2>It feels like Trump's the president forever, right, But like

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<v Speaker 2>when the year began, Joseph Robinette Biden was president.

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<v Speaker 1>Then why is it so funny. Speaking of humor, why

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<v Speaker 1>is it so funny when you say his middle name?

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know, Robinette. What the fuck is that you know?

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<v Speaker 2>Is that some Delaware? Are we sure Delaware is real?

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<v Speaker 2>Have you ever been to Delaware?

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<v Speaker 1>Are you sure birds are real? Name?

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<v Speaker 2>I'm birds more than Delaware, probably probably oh point three

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<v Speaker 2>percent of our listeners are in Delaware. We don't mean

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<v Speaker 2>to insult you. We know it's a beautiful I've been.

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<v Speaker 1>To Delaware on the train. Usually, pass.

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<v Speaker 2>On a train doesn't count. You have to like, uh, sleep,

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<v Speaker 2>eat or pee somewhere birth to count. That is having

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<v Speaker 2>visited estate.

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<v Speaker 1>Wait wait, wait, wait, hold on. Peeing in a state

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<v Speaker 1>counts as visiting. So like if I get off the

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<v Speaker 1>highway and use the rest area, it counts as having visited.

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<v Speaker 2>Correct, fascinating.

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<v Speaker 1>Those are the rules.

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<v Speaker 2>Okay, okay, those are the rules.

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<v Speaker 1>Those are the rules. Fine, excellent. I don't know if

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<v Speaker 1>I've ever been to Delaware. I passed through on a train.

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<v Speaker 1>I've probably peed on the train in Delaware.

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<v Speaker 2>No, No, the train. You have to leave the security perimeter, Maria, Like,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a little bit if you go outside and like

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<v Speaker 2>take like a stretch break or or a smoke break

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<v Speaker 2>or a bathroom break at the station in Wilmington. I

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<v Speaker 2>think that counts, but like I don't. You have to

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<v Speaker 2>leave the actual train, all right.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's get on with the year in the rear

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<v Speaker 1>view mirror and the Risky Awards. So our first ward

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<v Speaker 1>goes to the hero call of the Year, which is

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<v Speaker 1>a decision that looked crazy at the time but turned

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<v Speaker 1>out to be absolutely brilliant. And I felt myself coming

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<v Speaker 1>up short. I was like, there were a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>shit decisions and decisions that looked bad at the time

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<v Speaker 1>and ended up being bad. What's something that you think

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<v Speaker 1>is something that looked crazy and turned out to be

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<v Speaker 1>absolutely brilliant.

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<v Speaker 2>I guess Zoron Mumdanni choosing to run for mayor, and you,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it didn't seem crazy.

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<v Speaker 1>It didn't seem crazy. That's the thing.

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<v Speaker 2>I thought, what you going to do?

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<v Speaker 1>I had Mom Donnie with a question mark because like

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<v Speaker 1>Mum Donnie fits into it. We definitely need to give

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<v Speaker 1>Zoron Mum Donnie an award for the risk case. But

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<v Speaker 1>maybe it is hero call of the year. Maybe the

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<v Speaker 1>people who supported Zoron very early on are the hero

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<v Speaker 1>call of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, I guess all the people who sucked up

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<v Speaker 2>to Trump and then got pardoned. You gotta, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>give credit whords to George Sentos for example. I don't know,

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<v Speaker 2>but I guess it didn't seem crazy.

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<v Speaker 1>It it does seem crazy. So, yeah, hero call like

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<v Speaker 1>something where you're you know, it's it's a hero call

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<v Speaker 1>for poker players out there. You know what a hero

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<v Speaker 1>call is. It's not you're holding aces and you end

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<v Speaker 1>up calling top set. It's you know, you're calling with

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<v Speaker 1>ace high on a you know, on an incredibly wet board.

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<v Speaker 1>Seems crazy, but it turns out to be brilliant. Or

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<v Speaker 1>you're calling with jack hi or ten high because you

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<v Speaker 1>think that the person has a busted straight draw and

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<v Speaker 1>has five high and uh, yeah, that's the hero call

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. Well we'll put mom Donnie there kind

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<v Speaker 1>of in yeah with a question mark, because I think

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<v Speaker 1>that at the beginning of the campaign, when he did

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<v Speaker 1>decide to run, like, the odds really did not look

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<v Speaker 1>good for him. Nate, do you happen to remember what

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<v Speaker 1>the prediction markets and just what the polls were saying.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sure you start. I'm sure he was at one

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<v Speaker 2>percent or whatever.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, right, he was like a incredible underdog right at

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<v Speaker 1>the beginning. Yeah, all right, well let's try number two.

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<v Speaker 1>The worst fold, the decision that left everyone wondering why

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<v Speaker 1>walk away from such a sure thing?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, quite obviously if you're a sports fan. The

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<v Speaker 2>Luca Dontch trade was this year, and it was still

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<v Speaker 2>the most inexplicable trade in sports history. Lucas averaging thirty

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<v Speaker 2>five points a game, nine rebounds, nine assists this year,

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<v Speaker 2>shooting forty seven percent on field goals, Dallas trade him

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<v Speaker 2>for the perpetually injured Anthony Davis. They did back into

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<v Speaker 2>getting number one overall pick Cooper Fly due to a

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<v Speaker 2>stroke of luck. Nevertheless, general manager Nico Harrison was recently

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<v Speaker 2>fired from the team. Yeah, this was like the still

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<v Speaker 2>the weirdest trade in sports history. I was at this

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<v Speaker 2>random little poker tournament in Maryland quite late. My phone

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<v Speaker 2>was dead. When it scrolled across the ESPN bottom line,

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<v Speaker 2>I like literally thought I was having like a stroke

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<v Speaker 2>or hallucinating. I'm like, why the fuck would you trade

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<v Speaker 2>Luca for Anthony Davis? But it was real. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it has to be like the winner here.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's I mean, I think that for sports fans,

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<v Speaker 1>that's definitely the winner. And I actually remember doing this

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<v Speaker 1>podcast episode with you and reading about this, and as

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<v Speaker 1>a non sports fan, I was like, wait, what in

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<v Speaker 1>the world is going on? This is very weird. So

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<v Speaker 1>I had a different one for worst fold. I had

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<v Speaker 1>the Democrats in the government shutdown folding and deciding to

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<v Speaker 1>avoid that. I had that as the worst fold of

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<v Speaker 1>the year for the decision that left everyone wondering, what

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<v Speaker 1>the fuck did you just do? Why did we why

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<v Speaker 1>were we even in this pot right?

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<v Speaker 2>Like?

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<v Speaker 1>Why did we play this hand to the river? If

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<v Speaker 1>you're going to fold, like, what were you thinking you do?

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<v Speaker 2>The next one is cooler of the year. Cooler if

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<v Speaker 2>you're not familiar, is when when you have a very

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<v Speaker 2>good hand, your opponent has an even better hand and

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<v Speaker 2>there's that much you can do to avoid it. So

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<v Speaker 2>you have packet kings. I have King to Maria as

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<v Speaker 2>pocket aces.

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<v Speaker 1>So for this one, and this one is a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit controversial, but I would put Sam Altman and open Ai,

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<v Speaker 1>who was leading up until very recently, kind of in

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<v Speaker 1>all indicators, and then I've realized there's somewhat of our

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<v Speaker 1>recency bias here, But you know, absolute great hand has

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<v Speaker 1>been like all the best researchers market edge and seems

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<v Speaker 1>to have somehow fallen behind by sticking to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>their you know, their approach and potentially putting a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit too much weight on how do we generate money

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<v Speaker 1>right away with things like Sora et cetera, like basically

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<v Speaker 1>creating slop as opposed to trying to refine models and

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<v Speaker 1>seeing you know, Gemini Claude leapfrog over them in a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of different metrics. So I think that there was

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<v Speaker 1>no reason that had to have happened, because I think

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<v Speaker 1>that open Ai had the biggest resources out of any company. So,

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<v Speaker 1>like I said, maybe this is maybe you don't agree

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<v Speaker 1>with that, but for me, like it seems like they

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<v Speaker 1>had a great hand, but it's right now. They'll probably

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<v Speaker 1>not They're not going to lose in the long term,

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<v Speaker 1>but right now it seems like they're on the back foot.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I mean this is a slightly different spirit of

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<v Speaker 2>cooler in which it's kind of like maybe misplaying a

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<v Speaker 2>very robust situation, right, Yeah, I know. I think the

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<v Speaker 2>smartest people who are observers of AI say that, like

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<v Speaker 2>open Ai has probably lost its lead in the large

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<v Speaker 2>language model category squandered.

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<v Speaker 1>It's lead.

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<v Speaker 2>Like the euation is also going up by three acts

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<v Speaker 2>or five x or something over the course of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sure Sam Altman is still sleeping well at night.

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<v Speaker 2>But yeah, I mean, you know who well, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>if you want another sports one, Notre Dame missing the

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<v Speaker 2>college football playoff because they think they're special and refuse

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<v Speaker 2>to join a conference. That's maybe a little esoteric Maria,

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<v Speaker 2>but like, but they're they're privileged, a privileged bunch of

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<v Speaker 2>kids who who you know, think they're special and couldn't

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<v Speaker 2>get in line and join a conference and play a

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<v Speaker 2>real schedule. But that's that's you know, not a hearing

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<v Speaker 2>nor there.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Well, there we have it, so tilt of

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<v Speaker 1>the year, so kind of what's the most emotional decision

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<v Speaker 1>of the year. I've got I've got lots for this one.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, it feels like we have to mention Elon

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<v Speaker 2>Muskets some point had a fantastic year and you know,

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<v Speaker 2>kind of crashing and burning out of Doge even faster

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<v Speaker 2>than I thought, and I thought it wouldn't last particularly long. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>I think I think, you know, I think Elon's got

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<v Speaker 2>to be up there. What do you think.

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<v Speaker 1>We're I was going to give it to RFK, who

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<v Speaker 1>has emotionally, you know, been so I mean, he's doing

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<v Speaker 1>quite well, He's accomplished everything. But I think that he

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<v Speaker 1>is one of the most emotional people that we have seen,

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<v Speaker 1>and his crusade against vaccine, against science in general, against

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<v Speaker 1>NIH funding, against all of that, seems to be very

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<v Speaker 1>emotionally driven, someone who cannot be convinced by any data

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<v Speaker 1>and just has this personal vendetta and feels like everything

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<v Speaker 1>is personal about him, right, Like everything that he says

0:10:25.804 --> 0:10:28.044
<v Speaker 1>he makes it feel like, oh, people are out to

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<v Speaker 1>get me personally, and I am the scapegoat and I

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<v Speaker 1>am going to prove them all wrong. So it seems

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<v Speaker 1>to me like he's the tiltiest person like I would actually,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, I would bet that playing against him at

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<v Speaker 1>the poker table would be an interesting experience. I think

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<v Speaker 1>he's someone who would let he would take everything personally

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<v Speaker 1>and really let the losses go to go to his head.

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<v Speaker 2>Do you think that Trump would be good at poker? Now?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't. We've talked about this before. I think that

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's over confidence and overblown ego would keep him from

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<v Speaker 1>being good at poker, right, he doesn't take negative feedback,

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<v Speaker 1>he would think that he's a lot better than he

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<v Speaker 1>actually is, which is actually idea, like, those are the

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<v Speaker 1>best people to play poker against, the ones who have

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<v Speaker 1>an overblown sense of their own skills, right, because they're

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<v Speaker 1>not going to be taking negative criticism, negative feedback, and

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<v Speaker 1>they're not going to be learning as much, and they're

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<v Speaker 1>going to be the ones who are blaming the cards,

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<v Speaker 1>blaming the deck, you know, blaming everything except their own play.

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<v Speaker 1>And you want that, right, you want someone who is

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<v Speaker 1>incapable of learning from those types of things. Now, he

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<v Speaker 1>would be someone who I think would be very successful

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<v Speaker 1>against knits in the short term because he'd be super aggressive, right,

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<v Speaker 1>he'd be someone who would kind of fight for every pot,

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<v Speaker 1>who would bet big, who would like have all this

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<v Speaker 1>bluster and confidence. And if you don't see through that,

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<v Speaker 1>I think that aggression pays off in the immediate term,

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<v Speaker 1>but in the long term, if you then don't adjust

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<v Speaker 1>and keep that up and you're playing against good players

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<v Speaker 1>who do adjust to you, you're going to go broke.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and poker the better failure mode is aggression, you

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<v Speaker 2>know what I mean? Yeah, you induce mistakes and different

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<v Speaker 2>types of mistakes from your opponents. And you know, I

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<v Speaker 2>think it'd be better than better than Biden. Better than Biden.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I mean that's not saying much, but yeah, he

0:12:17.084 --> 0:12:23.604
<v Speaker 1>probably would be better than all right, So let's let's

0:12:23.644 --> 0:12:27.404
<v Speaker 1>go to another good decision. Ish, it doesn't have to

0:12:27.444 --> 0:12:30.044
<v Speaker 1>be good. Actually, it's the GTO call of the year,

0:12:30.644 --> 0:12:35.084
<v Speaker 1>so game theory optimalist call. So the most balanced sound

0:12:35.204 --> 0:12:40.444
<v Speaker 1>decision of the year. What do we got for balanced?

0:12:40.724 --> 0:12:44.724
<v Speaker 2>Well, especially in the NFL in general strategy on fourth

0:12:44.724 --> 0:12:48.764
<v Speaker 2>downs for examples, becoming much more gt O. But i'll

0:12:48.884 --> 0:12:52.244
<v Speaker 2>do a politician when here give it to Gavin Newsome.

0:12:52.524 --> 0:12:53.964
<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, yeah, that's a good one.

0:12:54.244 --> 0:12:58.604
<v Speaker 2>Not my favorite, not my favorite personality. However, he did

0:12:59.404 --> 0:13:02.444
<v Speaker 2>understand that if Republicans were willing to engage in mid

0:13:02.524 --> 0:13:07.764
<v Speaker 2>decade redistricting in states like Texas, that California should reciprocate.

0:13:08.084 --> 0:13:10.124
<v Speaker 2>It's kind of straight out of like the Prisoner's Alemma.

0:13:10.164 --> 0:13:13.244
<v Speaker 2>And you think aggressive gerrymandering is bad, even think the

0:13:13.284 --> 0:13:17.924
<v Speaker 2>GUP started, You know, you have to respond, and so

0:13:18.044 --> 0:13:21.564
<v Speaker 2>Newsoen did that aggressively and effectively, and so he wins

0:13:21.604 --> 0:13:23.044
<v Speaker 2>this award in my.

0:13:23.084 --> 0:13:26.324
<v Speaker 1>Opinion, Yeah, I think I think that that that's actually

0:13:26.524 --> 0:13:30.244
<v Speaker 1>a very good, very good pick on your side, Nate.

0:13:30.644 --> 0:13:32.844
<v Speaker 1>And it's a breath of fresh air to see someone

0:13:32.844 --> 0:13:35.044
<v Speaker 1>actually make a good political decision. Right, We've had so

0:13:35.084 --> 0:13:38.764
<v Speaker 1>many shitty political decisions this year, and on both sides

0:13:38.764 --> 0:13:41.364
<v Speaker 1>of the aisle, right, like so many people just doing

0:13:41.364 --> 0:13:42.804
<v Speaker 1>things where you're like, what in the world are you

0:13:42.844 --> 0:13:46.564
<v Speaker 1>even thinking? And he did. He did see that opportunity

0:13:46.804 --> 0:13:49.444
<v Speaker 1>and he executed it well. He also was able to

0:13:49.484 --> 0:13:52.244
<v Speaker 1>get the support he needed to pass the measures that

0:13:52.284 --> 0:13:55.084
<v Speaker 1>he needed. He was able to even people who don't

0:13:55.204 --> 0:13:57.604
<v Speaker 1>like him, you know, had to smile at his social

0:13:57.644 --> 0:14:01.444
<v Speaker 1>media kind of his social media team was good at

0:14:01.524 --> 0:14:06.164
<v Speaker 1>mimicking Trump and kind of you know, making making him

0:14:06.644 --> 0:14:10.244
<v Speaker 1>at least for a moment when that social media war.

0:14:10.644 --> 0:14:12.724
<v Speaker 1>So people I think.

0:14:12.604 --> 0:14:14.244
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I'm not I'm not sure gonna gi him too

0:14:14.284 --> 0:14:16.684
<v Speaker 2>much credit for that part. But but but he has

0:14:16.724 --> 0:14:20.924
<v Speaker 2>getting ground, and he has getting ground in like prediction

0:14:21.004 --> 0:14:24.964
<v Speaker 2>markets for the nomination race and polls and so you know, look,

0:14:25.084 --> 0:14:29.484
<v Speaker 2>I mean a lot of it is cringe. Unfortunately, cringe

0:14:29.524 --> 0:14:32.084
<v Speaker 2>sometimes works. Cringe. There's a big audience for and you know,

0:14:32.684 --> 0:14:39.124
<v Speaker 2>especially for like older MSNBC watching Democrat. They love the

0:14:39.164 --> 0:14:42.804
<v Speaker 2>fucking Cringe. They love Cringe, and Gavin Newsom is cringe.

0:14:43.364 --> 0:14:46.524
<v Speaker 2>His Twitter account is cringe, and Cringe is winning.

0:14:53.004 --> 0:14:54.124
<v Speaker 1>We'll be back right after this.

0:15:03.524 --> 0:15:08.084
<v Speaker 2>Uh okay. Next, the Danny Kanaman Memorial Cognitive Bias of

0:15:08.124 --> 0:15:12.924
<v Speaker 2>the Year Award, Cognitive Bias Best explains twenty twenty five.

0:15:14.284 --> 0:15:19.284
<v Speaker 1>I am going to say, uh a mix of I mean,

0:15:19.364 --> 0:15:25.204
<v Speaker 1>these are very related of recency bias with historic amnesia

0:15:25.244 --> 0:15:29.604
<v Speaker 1>and general like alliteracy about how things have played out

0:15:29.644 --> 0:15:33.124
<v Speaker 1>in history, where all of the decisions seem to be

0:15:33.204 --> 0:15:37.244
<v Speaker 1>focused on such short term thinking, right, just using like

0:15:37.804 --> 0:15:40.924
<v Speaker 1>who who are we? Like, who am I beating right now?

0:15:40.964 --> 0:15:44.444
<v Speaker 1>Who am I trying to get one over on? Right now?

0:15:44.644 --> 0:15:47.604
<v Speaker 1>Who am I trying to beat today without kind of

0:15:47.644 --> 0:15:52.164
<v Speaker 1>this consideration of weight, Like, there's a lot of history

0:15:52.204 --> 0:15:56.004
<v Speaker 1>here and this is not just the present moment. There

0:15:56.044 --> 0:16:00.204
<v Speaker 1>are you know there there are data points that are

0:16:00.244 --> 0:16:03.044
<v Speaker 1>going to kind of be helpful to me that happened

0:16:03.684 --> 0:16:06.044
<v Speaker 1>way in the past, and I have to be thinking

0:16:06.844 --> 0:16:09.804
<v Speaker 1>into the future as well, you know, things like you

0:16:09.844 --> 0:16:14.324
<v Speaker 1>know tariffs, right, It just seems to just have a

0:16:14.364 --> 0:16:17.524
<v Speaker 1>certain historical amnesia where you know, how did this kind

0:16:17.564 --> 0:16:20.604
<v Speaker 1>of thing play out in the past, but in general,

0:16:20.804 --> 0:16:24.284
<v Speaker 1>just all the decisions seem to be very shortsighted and

0:16:24.444 --> 0:16:30.164
<v Speaker 1>very in the moment focused, without without grounding in how

0:16:30.204 --> 0:16:34.844
<v Speaker 1>does this actually look? What are the implications? What can

0:16:34.884 --> 0:16:39.524
<v Speaker 1>I take from historical lessons so that this decision is

0:16:39.564 --> 0:16:43.364
<v Speaker 1>actually good for the future and not just for the

0:16:43.404 --> 0:16:44.084
<v Speaker 1>present moment.

0:16:45.564 --> 0:16:48.364
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Look, it's pretty classic for new presidents to come

0:16:48.364 --> 0:16:52.284
<v Speaker 2>in to the Oval Office and overread their men. Date

0:16:53.324 --> 0:16:57.404
<v Speaker 2>Trump being so insistent on tariffs, I mean, even if

0:16:57.444 --> 0:17:00.684
<v Speaker 2>they haven't had quite as much of a negative impact

0:17:01.404 --> 0:17:06.284
<v Speaker 2>as some economists might have predicted. You know, consumers have

0:17:06.324 --> 0:17:10.124
<v Speaker 2>been very gloomy about the economy for ever since Liberation

0:17:10.364 --> 0:17:15.364
<v Speaker 2>Day quote unquote back in April. You know, without this

0:17:15.564 --> 0:17:18.764
<v Speaker 2>investment in AI, it's not clear the economy will be

0:17:18.764 --> 0:17:22.084
<v Speaker 2>growing very much at all. And Trump just won an

0:17:22.124 --> 0:17:26.044
<v Speaker 2>election on inflation. Now one calls it affordability. You know what,

0:17:26.564 --> 0:17:28.124
<v Speaker 2>call it fucking if I've already had this rant on

0:17:28.164 --> 0:17:31.724
<v Speaker 2>the show before. You know, affordability feels too fucking euphemistic

0:17:32.124 --> 0:17:34.644
<v Speaker 2>to me. Call it see a little too highbrow. Call

0:17:34.644 --> 0:17:37.124
<v Speaker 2>it fucking inflation. You win an election on inflation, and

0:17:37.124 --> 0:17:38.924
<v Speaker 2>then you pass a bunch of terror policies that cause

0:17:39.204 --> 0:17:43.164
<v Speaker 2>higher inflation. It seems like some type of some type

0:17:43.164 --> 0:17:45.364
<v Speaker 2>of cognitive bias or deserves to be somewhere in the

0:17:45.444 --> 0:17:47.284
<v Speaker 2>in the negative category of these awards.

0:17:47.604 --> 0:17:52.764
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. Absolutely absolutely, So let's uh, let's go on to

0:17:52.884 --> 0:17:55.484
<v Speaker 1>our Djen of the Year, which we as of last

0:17:55.564 --> 0:18:00.244
<v Speaker 1>year renamed the Epei Masuhara Award for Djen of the Year.

0:18:00.564 --> 0:18:02.644
<v Speaker 1>We don't have anyone quite on that level, but there

0:18:02.644 --> 0:18:04.284
<v Speaker 1>were a lot of contenders for this one.

0:18:04.884 --> 0:18:08.044
<v Speaker 2>I mean, what about Chauncey Billups, the former head coach

0:18:08.044 --> 0:18:09.044
<v Speaker 2>of the Portland Trail Blazer.

0:18:09.084 --> 0:18:12.404
<v Speaker 1>Oh had Chauncey, I had Terry Rosier, I had all

0:18:12.484 --> 0:18:12.804
<v Speaker 1>all the.

0:18:13.404 --> 0:18:13.884
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, we have.

0:18:14.324 --> 0:18:17.484
<v Speaker 1>I mean we had the indictments, the NBA indictments, So

0:18:17.524 --> 0:18:20.444
<v Speaker 1>you can you can take any of those athletes, coaches,

0:18:20.644 --> 0:18:24.244
<v Speaker 1>like people who were making lots of money and who

0:18:24.284 --> 0:18:30.844
<v Speaker 1>made very very questionable decisions that have jeopardized their.

0:18:30.804 --> 0:18:32.844
<v Speaker 2>I think I'm gonna I'm gonna get with Chauncey. He's

0:18:32.884 --> 0:18:35.804
<v Speaker 2>the most prominent of these figures, right. He is an

0:18:35.844 --> 0:18:38.404
<v Speaker 2>NBA Hall of Famer, I believe, otherwise known as co

0:18:38.404 --> 0:18:41.244
<v Speaker 2>Conspiratory Number eight. I believe or I forget which number

0:18:41.284 --> 0:18:44.244
<v Speaker 2>he was, I'm gonna give I'm gonna give Chauncey the award.

0:18:44.444 --> 0:18:47.484
<v Speaker 1>Okay, that's that makes sense. So I initially gave it

0:18:47.524 --> 0:18:50.524
<v Speaker 1>to Chauncey, and then I thought maybe Terry because Terry

0:18:50.564 --> 0:18:54.204
<v Speaker 1>actually threw games as well, so as far as we know,

0:18:54.284 --> 0:18:58.484
<v Speaker 1>allegedly allegedly through games by letting people bet on like

0:18:58.564 --> 0:19:02.804
<v Speaker 1>different outcomes and then you know, sitting out and uh

0:19:03.524 --> 0:19:07.404
<v Speaker 1>fading injury, et cetera, et cetera. So depending on Yeah,

0:19:07.444 --> 0:19:09.404
<v Speaker 1>but Chauncey Billups is obviously more prominent.

0:19:09.564 --> 0:19:12.884
<v Speaker 2>So yeah, does Michael ms Rahey is her consideration.

0:19:12.484 --> 0:19:16.204
<v Speaker 1>Here for Djen of the Year? Yeah, sure, why not?

0:19:16.804 --> 0:19:19.724
<v Speaker 1>I mean, Michael Misrahi is quite a djen. He won

0:19:20.404 --> 0:19:23.484
<v Speaker 1>the World Series main Event, he won the Players Championship,

0:19:23.564 --> 0:19:25.124
<v Speaker 1>so Djen of the Year could be a good thing.

0:19:26.004 --> 0:19:28.364
<v Speaker 2>There are rumors that he was like out quite late

0:19:28.364 --> 0:19:32.964
<v Speaker 2>at various clubs and anyway, but I think I think

0:19:33.044 --> 0:19:35.444
<v Speaker 2>Chauncey earned this. But in a weaker year that we'd

0:19:35.444 --> 0:19:36.844
<v Speaker 2>have to consider Michael ms Rahi.

0:19:37.524 --> 0:19:40.284
<v Speaker 1>That's that's that's fair. We we had a very robust

0:19:40.364 --> 0:19:43.004
<v Speaker 1>slate of nominees this year. It's like the Oscars when

0:19:43.404 --> 0:19:45.684
<v Speaker 1>you know, the best Picture nominees come out and you're

0:19:45.724 --> 0:19:47.884
<v Speaker 1>like shit, like, how do I choose?

0:19:48.084 --> 0:19:48.284
<v Speaker 2>Right?

0:19:49.564 --> 0:19:52.204
<v Speaker 1>This year, the Dejen of the Year slate was really full.

0:19:52.284 --> 0:19:56.124
<v Speaker 1>We're sorry everyone who didn't get it better? Like next year,

0:19:56.324 --> 0:19:59.084
<v Speaker 1>how about the Knit of the Year? Nate? Who do

0:19:59.124 --> 0:20:00.524
<v Speaker 1>you think was the nidias this year?

0:20:01.444 --> 0:20:03.324
<v Speaker 2>Who is a guy who falled as king at the

0:20:03.324 --> 0:20:05.204
<v Speaker 2>final table? Is that Kenny Hallard is supposed to be

0:20:05.244 --> 0:20:10.244
<v Speaker 2>a great guy, right, but it you couldn't give it

0:20:10.284 --> 0:20:13.324
<v Speaker 2>to You could give it to Chuck Schumer for folding

0:20:13.364 --> 0:20:16.164
<v Speaker 2>on the shutdown. Here's an obscure one, which I find

0:20:16.244 --> 0:20:19.444
<v Speaker 2>kind of funny. Right, So, Brad Lander was the New

0:20:19.524 --> 0:20:25.404
<v Speaker 2>York City compatroller is by some measures, was the most

0:20:25.404 --> 0:20:27.804
<v Speaker 2>broadly liked candy in the New York mayor race, and

0:20:27.964 --> 0:20:35.364
<v Speaker 2>he he basically endorsed Zoran and helped clinch Zoran finishing

0:20:35.364 --> 0:20:39.284
<v Speaker 2>in first place in the in the primary right because

0:20:39.324 --> 0:20:40.724
<v Speaker 2>he thought he was going to get I mean, I'm

0:20:40.724 --> 0:20:43.804
<v Speaker 2>sure he hates Cuomo, which understandable, but he thought he

0:20:43.844 --> 0:20:46.604
<v Speaker 2>was going to get like the deputy mayor's job. And

0:20:46.684 --> 0:20:49.764
<v Speaker 2>Zora was like, nope, sorry, bro, you know I'll endorse

0:20:49.844 --> 0:20:52.084
<v Speaker 2>your campaign for Congress. But like, so that was a

0:20:52.124 --> 0:20:54.844
<v Speaker 2>case where like you make a sacrifice and wind up

0:20:54.844 --> 0:20:58.484
<v Speaker 2>getting getting nothing for it, right, I mean, he got

0:20:58.524 --> 0:21:01.084
<v Speaker 2>lots of kudos on Twitter from Democrats who don't like Cuomo,

0:21:01.284 --> 0:21:02.884
<v Speaker 2>but like that comes to mind a little bit.

0:21:04.124 --> 0:21:07.164
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, that's that's an interesting one. Yeah, I was I

0:21:07.204 --> 0:21:09.084
<v Speaker 1>was going to go with someone like Schumer in line

0:21:09.124 --> 0:21:13.364
<v Speaker 1>with my Democratic shutdown as the worst fold of the year,

0:21:14.084 --> 0:21:17.004
<v Speaker 1>because nance you know, that's the thing. If you're in it,

0:21:17.084 --> 0:21:19.644
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna end up making nitty folds that you should

0:21:19.644 --> 0:21:22.244
<v Speaker 1>not be making. Right, Like, those two things go hand

0:21:22.244 --> 0:21:25.044
<v Speaker 1>in hand. One of the worst things about being in

0:21:25.124 --> 0:21:27.764
<v Speaker 1>it is that you fold hands that you really should

0:21:27.764 --> 0:21:31.244
<v Speaker 1>be calling and you don't put yourself Sure, you can

0:21:31.684 --> 0:21:34.084
<v Speaker 1>protect your chips, but you also don't put yourself in

0:21:34.124 --> 0:21:37.564
<v Speaker 1>a position to win. Right. That kind of strategy ends

0:21:37.644 --> 0:21:40.804
<v Speaker 1>up putting you on the back foot repeatedly. And I

0:21:40.844 --> 0:21:42.924
<v Speaker 1>think that that's kind of what happened here.

0:21:43.804 --> 0:21:47.284
<v Speaker 2>Did you make any bad folds this here, Maria, I

0:21:47.324 --> 0:21:47.684
<v Speaker 2>don't know.

0:21:48.884 --> 0:21:53.204
<v Speaker 1>I well, no, no, in the sense that I wasn't shown.

0:21:54.244 --> 0:21:56.764
<v Speaker 1>I think I'm sure that I made some very bad folds.

0:21:57.164 --> 0:21:59.764
<v Speaker 1>But in order to know whether you made a bad fold.

0:21:59.764 --> 0:22:02.644
<v Speaker 1>The person has to then show you what they had right,

0:22:03.244 --> 0:22:06.404
<v Speaker 1>And if you aren't sure if they were bluffing or not,

0:22:06.524 --> 0:22:09.044
<v Speaker 1>then you don't know if it was a bad fold.

0:22:09.564 --> 0:22:11.844
<v Speaker 1>I'm guessing that I made some really bad folds this year,

0:22:12.284 --> 0:22:14.764
<v Speaker 1>Like if I were betting on it, I would say,

0:22:14.844 --> 0:22:17.724
<v Speaker 1>like over ninety percent certain that I've made some really

0:22:17.764 --> 0:22:20.764
<v Speaker 1>bad folds. But I can't. I didn't have any of

0:22:20.804 --> 0:22:23.524
<v Speaker 1>those situations where someone then showed me in their hand.

0:22:23.804 --> 0:22:26.644
<v Speaker 1>I had situations where they then told me what they had,

0:22:26.684 --> 0:22:28.604
<v Speaker 1>but I don't trust that because I don't trust poker

0:22:28.604 --> 0:22:31.364
<v Speaker 1>players to actually tell me the truth about what they had.

0:22:31.484 --> 0:22:34.684
<v Speaker 1>In a lot of situations poker players life.

0:22:34.884 --> 0:22:39.484
<v Speaker 2>I had one in a home tournament where like this

0:22:39.524 --> 0:22:43.004
<v Speaker 2>woman was quite bad at poker, and I had like

0:22:43.444 --> 0:22:44.804
<v Speaker 2>it was a board with like three of a kind

0:22:44.844 --> 0:22:47.724
<v Speaker 2>on the board. It was like, you know, seven seven seven,

0:22:48.804 --> 0:22:53.524
<v Speaker 2>nine king or something right, And I had like a

0:22:53.564 --> 0:22:59.764
<v Speaker 2>pair of nine full house right, and she battle a

0:22:59.804 --> 0:23:03.924
<v Speaker 2>lot with a pair of sixes right, so underpair to

0:23:03.964 --> 0:23:06.964
<v Speaker 2>the board a weaker full house and I had and

0:23:06.964 --> 0:23:09.364
<v Speaker 2>I just thought, well, okay, is a really tight player.

0:23:09.484 --> 0:23:11.044
<v Speaker 2>But like she didn't actually know, she didn't realize that

0:23:11.164 --> 0:23:14.524
<v Speaker 2>like having a full house was not actually a great

0:23:14.564 --> 0:23:16.924
<v Speaker 2>hand on that board because there's so many better full

0:23:16.924 --> 0:23:21.044
<v Speaker 2>houses or quads. So I folded because I gave her

0:23:21.044 --> 0:23:23.044
<v Speaker 2>too much credit. Basically, that's funny.

0:23:23.044 --> 0:23:25.724
<v Speaker 1>There's a you know, the one of the pivotal poker

0:23:25.764 --> 0:23:31.364
<v Speaker 1>scenes in Molly's Game. You've seen the movie, yes, So

0:23:31.404 --> 0:23:34.804
<v Speaker 1>there's there's a scene where a good player makes a

0:23:34.924 --> 0:23:38.924
<v Speaker 1>huge fold because he doesn't realize that he's playing against

0:23:38.964 --> 0:23:41.524
<v Speaker 1>a bad player. He didn't realize I think that Brad

0:23:41.644 --> 0:23:44.044
<v Speaker 1>was bad and then it ends up and then he'd

0:23:44.044 --> 0:23:47.004
<v Speaker 1>buy mistake flashes one of the cards and he realizes

0:23:47.044 --> 0:23:48.884
<v Speaker 1>that he made a bad fold and it puts him

0:23:48.884 --> 0:23:51.884
<v Speaker 1>on megatilt and he hands up losing tons and tons

0:23:51.884 --> 0:23:54.684
<v Speaker 1>of money. That is sometimes one of the worst things

0:23:54.684 --> 0:23:57.684
<v Speaker 1>that you can do, which is actually an interesting consideration

0:23:57.844 --> 0:24:02.884
<v Speaker 1>for this award. When you aren't capable, when you give

0:24:03.044 --> 0:24:06.604
<v Speaker 1>other people too much credit, sometimes you can you can

0:24:06.644 --> 0:24:11.084
<v Speaker 1>be nittier than you should be. And so that's why

0:24:11.244 --> 0:24:14.284
<v Speaker 1>you know, for good decision making, you really need to

0:24:14.284 --> 0:24:17.004
<v Speaker 1>be accurate in your evaluations, not only of yourself but

0:24:17.084 --> 0:24:19.324
<v Speaker 1>of other people. And that can be really difficult. In

0:24:19.364 --> 0:24:21.644
<v Speaker 1>the absence of data, right, Like, if you don't have

0:24:21.844 --> 0:24:25.684
<v Speaker 1>enough data points, how do you make those determinations? And

0:24:25.724 --> 0:24:28.604
<v Speaker 1>obviously some of it comes from experience, but then you

0:24:28.684 --> 0:24:32.324
<v Speaker 1>fill in the blanks with biases, with you know what

0:24:32.844 --> 0:24:35.524
<v Speaker 1>you're kind of you try to fill in the blanks

0:24:35.524 --> 0:24:37.844
<v Speaker 1>as best you can. Sometimes you write, and sometimes you're

0:24:37.844 --> 0:24:40.844
<v Speaker 1>just absolutely wrong. And sometimes Nate, have you, I mean,

0:24:40.884 --> 0:24:43.844
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure you've been in this situation, both in poker

0:24:43.844 --> 0:24:47.124
<v Speaker 1>and non in poker, I've had situations where I have

0:24:47.244 --> 0:24:52.924
<v Speaker 1>folded huge hands, both literal and metaphorical, because I've read

0:24:52.964 --> 0:24:55.964
<v Speaker 1>the other person as being incredibly strong, and I was

0:24:56.044 --> 0:24:58.804
<v Speaker 1>right in that they thought they were incredibly strong, but

0:24:58.844 --> 0:25:01.924
<v Speaker 1>they actually weren't, so the read was correct, but they

0:25:01.964 --> 0:25:06.204
<v Speaker 1>didn't realize where they were relative to me in that situation.

0:25:07.044 --> 0:25:09.244
<v Speaker 1>And so that's something.

0:25:08.884 --> 0:25:11.124
<v Speaker 2>To where just a narrow piece of actual booker advice

0:25:11.124 --> 0:25:14.404
<v Speaker 2>for listeners, right, because Marie and I both have this

0:25:14.524 --> 0:25:19.964
<v Speaker 2>experience of playing an extremely wide range of game textures,

0:25:20.004 --> 0:25:22.284
<v Speaker 2>from the toughest opponents in the world and high rollers

0:25:22.684 --> 0:25:25.324
<v Speaker 2>to the worship you've ever seen play poker and like

0:25:25.444 --> 0:25:28.244
<v Speaker 2>charity events, right, And when you get in that really

0:25:28.284 --> 0:25:32.404
<v Speaker 2>bad section of the pool. Then you have to give

0:25:32.444 --> 0:25:36.564
<v Speaker 2>some consideration to your absolute hand strength, right like that,

0:25:36.724 --> 0:25:40.924
<v Speaker 2>Yeah I have a flush. There may be better flushes

0:25:40.924 --> 0:25:42.764
<v Speaker 2>and full houses on the board. But like, but the

0:25:42.764 --> 0:25:44.964
<v Speaker 2>fact is, disapponent might think top pair is good hand.

0:25:44.964 --> 0:25:46.524
<v Speaker 2>They don't know how to read the relative strength of

0:25:46.564 --> 0:25:50.324
<v Speaker 2>hands and so you know, so yeah, don't don't fold

0:25:51.484 --> 0:25:56.284
<v Speaker 2>good hands for cheap against bad opponents who you don't

0:25:56.324 --> 0:25:58.604
<v Speaker 2>have that firm a read on. Yeah right, we really

0:25:58.764 --> 0:26:02.804
<v Speaker 2>and we really stereotype bad players based on you know,

0:26:02.844 --> 0:26:05.844
<v Speaker 2>one or two pieces of information. And yeah, it's just

0:26:05.884 --> 0:26:07.364
<v Speaker 2>a matter of hedging a little bit more.

0:26:07.524 --> 0:26:13.324
<v Speaker 1>Absolutely absolutely staying on the poker. Uh. Note Risky Business bracelet,

0:26:13.644 --> 0:26:16.324
<v Speaker 1>which host was the better poker player this year? I

0:26:16.364 --> 0:26:18.644
<v Speaker 1>have no idea in Nate, I don't actually.

0:26:18.604 --> 0:26:21.364
<v Speaker 2>Well, you won a tournament. Yeah, I think it has

0:26:21.524 --> 0:26:25.924
<v Speaker 2>to be you, right right, I had been, i'd have

0:26:25.924 --> 0:26:26.484
<v Speaker 2>been a World series.

0:26:26.964 --> 0:26:28.204
<v Speaker 1>You had a better World Series than I did.

0:26:28.444 --> 0:26:31.684
<v Speaker 2>I think winning a tournament that Maria.

0:26:31.324 --> 0:26:35.164
<v Speaker 1>Well, I appreciate that night. But but risky business listeners,

0:26:35.164 --> 0:26:38.284
<v Speaker 1>the year is not yet over. We still have a

0:26:38.324 --> 0:26:43.004
<v Speaker 1>few weeks to go. I am in Vegas playing the

0:26:43.044 --> 0:26:47.964
<v Speaker 1>World Poker Tour. Win Championships, and Nate is heading to

0:26:48.004 --> 0:26:50.964
<v Speaker 1>the Bahamas to play in the double Tomorrow.

0:26:51.164 --> 0:26:55.124
<v Speaker 2>I'll be in the Bahamas playing, uh, playing this twenty

0:26:55.164 --> 0:26:58.924
<v Speaker 2>five K, sixty million guaranteed tournament. And it sure is

0:26:59.204 --> 0:27:02.884
<v Speaker 2>gonna be nice, Maria. When I win that tournament, it's

0:27:02.884 --> 0:27:04.364
<v Speaker 2>gonna and that will and that will.

0:27:04.444 --> 0:27:07.324
<v Speaker 1>Actually I'm gonna have to give my Risky Business bracelet

0:27:07.364 --> 0:27:09.764
<v Speaker 1>to you, Nate. I'm gonna have to give it back

0:27:10.124 --> 0:27:14.524
<v Speaker 1>unless unless I win the ten thousand dollars made event

0:27:14.564 --> 0:27:16.364
<v Speaker 1>here at the win, in which case we can just

0:27:16.724 --> 0:27:18.364
<v Speaker 1>agree just to let the bracelet.

0:27:18.964 --> 0:27:21.924
<v Speaker 2>No, I think, I think I think the paradise would

0:27:21.924 --> 0:27:24.404
<v Speaker 2>still it would still away there. It's a sixty million

0:27:24.404 --> 0:27:25.284
<v Speaker 2>guaranteed price. Bool.

0:27:25.324 --> 0:27:28.724
<v Speaker 1>I understand, Nate. But I've already won a tournament this year,

0:27:28.924 --> 0:27:30.484
<v Speaker 1>so I'm just I'm just saying.

0:27:30.404 --> 0:27:32.764
<v Speaker 2>Okay, okay, okay, Marie, that will be.

0:27:32.764 --> 0:27:35.484
<v Speaker 1>That will be putting me into two wins. But well,

0:27:35.564 --> 0:27:36.884
<v Speaker 1>just but but when you win.

0:27:37.444 --> 0:27:40.564
<v Speaker 2>Forward to that problem where we've both won these I know, amazing.

0:27:40.204 --> 0:27:42.444
<v Speaker 1>Bracelets, it's gonna be it's gonna be a great problem

0:27:42.444 --> 0:27:44.564
<v Speaker 1>to have. We're going to have to cut the Risky

0:27:44.604 --> 0:27:47.284
<v Speaker 1>Business bracelet in half. I think in that situation and

0:27:47.324 --> 0:27:50.084
<v Speaker 1>share it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna take it

0:27:50.124 --> 0:27:53.924
<v Speaker 1>for myself because you you will be worthy of having

0:27:53.924 --> 0:27:56.164
<v Speaker 1>the bracelet as well. Or maybe we get a second one.

0:27:56.524 --> 0:27:58.404
<v Speaker 1>Maybe we uh, you know, go all out on the

0:27:58.444 --> 0:28:01.924
<v Speaker 1>budget and get two bracelets.

0:28:03.164 --> 0:28:06.364
<v Speaker 2>I'm look, I'm looking. I'm looking forward to my new

0:28:06.444 --> 0:28:09.204
<v Speaker 2>vacation home and asking them and to buy with this with.

0:28:09.044 --> 0:28:12.324
<v Speaker 1>This's been interesting. Are you Are you a skier?

0:28:13.524 --> 0:28:16.244
<v Speaker 2>No skiing seems like a terrible idea. I'm not. I'm

0:28:16.244 --> 0:28:18.884
<v Speaker 2>not a knit It just seems like don't people get

0:28:18.884 --> 0:28:20.084
<v Speaker 2>injured all the time when they're skiing.

0:28:20.204 --> 0:28:20.444
<v Speaker 1>They do?

0:28:20.724 --> 0:28:24.564
<v Speaker 2>Yes, Yeah, that seems crazy, Like it's just like and

0:28:24.564 --> 0:28:25.884
<v Speaker 2>when you talk to you, he's like, oh, yeah, I

0:28:25.924 --> 0:28:28.164
<v Speaker 2>broke my broke my colorone one. You know, It's like

0:28:28.204 --> 0:28:30.204
<v Speaker 2>it just seems like a very very very very high

0:28:30.684 --> 0:28:31.404
<v Speaker 2>rate of injury.

0:28:31.764 --> 0:28:34.884
<v Speaker 1>Yes, my family is a family of skiers. And I

0:28:34.924 --> 0:28:38.644
<v Speaker 1>started skiing when I was I think, oh, five years old,

0:28:39.524 --> 0:28:44.084
<v Speaker 1>And I don't really ski much anymore because you know,

0:28:44.164 --> 0:28:47.364
<v Speaker 1>I don't live near a mountain, and at some point,

0:28:47.644 --> 0:28:50.644
<v Speaker 1>like after college, I just kind of stopped skiing. Everyone

0:28:50.684 --> 0:28:53.924
<v Speaker 1>else in my family continues skiing. I am the only

0:28:54.004 --> 0:28:56.324
<v Speaker 1>person in my family who has not gotten the serious

0:28:56.404 --> 0:29:03.604
<v Speaker 1>injury from skiing. Yeah, because I stopped everyone else broken bones,

0:29:03.684 --> 0:29:10.124
<v Speaker 1>torn acls, concussions, and other traumatic head injuries. Like, you

0:29:10.164 --> 0:29:12.884
<v Speaker 1>don't have to be a knit to be afraid of

0:29:12.924 --> 0:29:13.684
<v Speaker 1>injuring yourself.

0:29:16.644 --> 0:29:28.844
<v Speaker 2>And we'll be right back after this break. All right.

0:29:28.924 --> 0:29:34.244
<v Speaker 1>We've got two awards from the podcast The Town About

0:29:34.244 --> 0:29:38.404
<v Speaker 1>Hollywood that we awarded last year as well. So those

0:29:38.444 --> 0:29:40.964
<v Speaker 1>two are the Mia Coolpa I Was Wrong Award and

0:29:41.004 --> 0:29:44.884
<v Speaker 1>the second Haters I Was Right Award. So what do

0:29:45.044 --> 0:29:48.884
<v Speaker 1>you have for those? Is there anything that you think

0:29:48.884 --> 0:29:51.004
<v Speaker 1>you were wrong about or you were right about?

0:29:52.764 --> 0:29:54.404
<v Speaker 2>Well, you know, I keep track of my sports bets.

0:29:54.404 --> 0:29:57.804
<v Speaker 2>There's lots of individual things that I was wrong about,

0:29:57.844 --> 0:30:01.044
<v Speaker 2>certainly on the sports side. You know. I'm thinking back

0:30:01.084 --> 0:30:03.204
<v Speaker 2>on columns. I mean, I read a column earlier in

0:30:03.204 --> 0:30:08.524
<v Speaker 2>the year about like how the market, like the stock market,

0:30:08.564 --> 0:30:12.364
<v Speaker 2>wouldn't tame Trump or curb his excesses. I think that

0:30:12.604 --> 0:30:15.204
<v Speaker 2>is more wrong than right, because it seems to he

0:30:15.244 --> 0:30:18.764
<v Speaker 2>seems to be upset when like the arrows go down

0:30:18.924 --> 0:30:22.724
<v Speaker 2>in the stock market quite a bit. I don't know,

0:30:22.764 --> 0:30:25.524
<v Speaker 2>I mean, there weren't very many elections this year, which

0:30:25.564 --> 0:30:29.964
<v Speaker 2>produces and oppeticially me to be obnoxiously wrong about things.

0:30:30.084 --> 0:30:31.924
<v Speaker 2>I was almost wrong on the shut town. I thought

0:30:31.924 --> 0:30:34.124
<v Speaker 2>that like this kind of pretense of like shutting the

0:30:34.124 --> 0:30:38.044
<v Speaker 2>government down for for healthcare was not a very good plan,

0:30:38.364 --> 0:30:40.364
<v Speaker 2>right and then and but then lo and behold, after

0:30:40.364 --> 0:30:43.644
<v Speaker 2>a couple of weeks, Trump was threatening people's food stamps,

0:30:43.684 --> 0:30:46.964
<v Speaker 2>said he was becoming much less popular. I'm like, oh boy,

0:30:47.004 --> 0:30:48.084
<v Speaker 2>I'm I have to eat some curl on this one.

0:30:48.124 --> 0:30:50.764
<v Speaker 2>And that's fucking cave. So I guess I was. I

0:30:50.804 --> 0:30:53.084
<v Speaker 2>guess I was right, you know, I you know, for

0:30:53.164 --> 0:30:55.244
<v Speaker 2>the other second haters category, Like there were two or

0:30:55.244 --> 0:31:00.724
<v Speaker 2>three books about what a shitty condition that Biden was him,

0:31:00.764 --> 0:31:02.724
<v Speaker 2>which was a point of emphasis for me last year.

0:31:03.204 --> 0:31:05.284
<v Speaker 2>Of course, you know, I don't think Kamala Harris comes

0:31:05.284 --> 0:31:09.044
<v Speaker 2>across very well on her memoir of the campaign trial either.

0:31:09.204 --> 0:31:13.204
<v Speaker 2>So like the fact these people were fucking idiots, uh

0:31:13.244 --> 0:31:15.444
<v Speaker 2>you know, I don't mean Harris, but like I mean

0:31:15.484 --> 0:31:19.764
<v Speaker 2>the people surrounding Biden and Harris like that that felt

0:31:19.884 --> 0:31:21.724
<v Speaker 2>very validated this year. I guess.

0:31:22.004 --> 0:31:25.444
<v Speaker 1>Yeah. So for I'm going to say for the Mia Colpa,

0:31:25.524 --> 0:31:28.204
<v Speaker 1>I was wrong Award. I think at the beginning of

0:31:28.244 --> 0:31:31.084
<v Speaker 1>the year, I was under selling some of the promises

0:31:31.724 --> 0:31:35.604
<v Speaker 1>of AI in a lot of areas, and I think

0:31:36.404 --> 0:31:39.724
<v Speaker 1>that it has gotten so much better this past year. Like, sure,

0:31:39.764 --> 0:31:42.164
<v Speaker 1>it's still hallucinates and like that that's funny.

0:31:42.244 --> 0:31:43.444
<v Speaker 2>I'm kind of.

0:31:43.924 --> 0:31:47.084
<v Speaker 1>Well, it's because of right, But you and I started

0:31:47.124 --> 0:31:48.924
<v Speaker 1>the year on very different Like you were so much

0:31:48.964 --> 0:31:50.964
<v Speaker 1>more bullish and I was so much more bearish. So

0:31:51.004 --> 0:31:53.844
<v Speaker 1>I think we've probably like we're probably at the same

0:31:53.884 --> 0:31:56.244
<v Speaker 1>point now, Nate. But for me it's an I was

0:31:56.284 --> 0:31:59.124
<v Speaker 1>wrong and for you it was you know, it's one

0:31:59.164 --> 0:32:01.284
<v Speaker 1>of these things where we've both recalibrated with the new

0:32:01.364 --> 0:32:04.004
<v Speaker 1>data and I was like, Okay, you know in some

0:32:04.044 --> 0:32:05.844
<v Speaker 1>of these areas there's a lot of promise that I

0:32:05.884 --> 0:32:09.164
<v Speaker 1>didn't really realize. And you, on the other hand, were

0:32:09.444 --> 0:32:13.124
<v Speaker 1>so optimistic that now you're like, oh, there's You've had

0:32:13.164 --> 0:32:15.284
<v Speaker 1>to calibrate it down, which is kind of funny. So

0:32:15.324 --> 0:32:18.524
<v Speaker 1>I think I think we've met in the middle. The

0:32:18.564 --> 0:32:22.564
<v Speaker 1>second haters I was right, Award. I'm going to say

0:32:22.764 --> 0:32:28.244
<v Speaker 1>that the attack on higher education that was orchestrated by

0:32:28.324 --> 0:32:32.084
<v Speaker 1>you know, Trump and his cronies, a lot of people

0:32:32.124 --> 0:32:34.644
<v Speaker 1>were like, yeah, you know, fuck Harvard, blah blah blah.

0:32:34.804 --> 0:32:38.564
<v Speaker 1>But I think that I were already seeing with the

0:32:38.604 --> 0:32:42.444
<v Speaker 1>cuts and funding and the kind of drain in students

0:32:42.484 --> 0:32:45.084
<v Speaker 1>and all of this, that this is going to really

0:32:45.124 --> 0:32:47.564
<v Speaker 1>really hurt the United States for many, many years to come.

0:32:49.004 --> 0:32:51.084
<v Speaker 1>So I think I was right, what have it.

0:32:54.164 --> 0:32:57.244
<v Speaker 2>You might have to use down? Yeah, they are using

0:32:57.284 --> 0:33:01.884
<v Speaker 2>it good. Good, No, like it is bad. But like

0:33:02.244 --> 0:33:05.764
<v Speaker 2>all the things Trump has done, I think higher education,

0:33:06.084 --> 0:33:08.964
<v Speaker 2>elite higher education. I'm a big fan of state schools. Right,

0:33:09.644 --> 0:33:11.844
<v Speaker 2>there's some schools like my I'm a minor university to

0:33:11.924 --> 0:33:14.604
<v Speaker 2>set up more for a free speech. Yeah, I'm I agree,

0:33:14.644 --> 0:33:18.044
<v Speaker 2>it's objectively bad. I'm not very sympathetic.

0:33:18.644 --> 0:33:21.804
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, but I think that you know, curbing cancer research

0:33:21.804 --> 0:33:24.244
<v Speaker 1>and all the things that these schools spread do it

0:33:24.924 --> 0:33:25.604
<v Speaker 1>is really bad.

0:33:26.924 --> 0:33:29.004
<v Speaker 2>By the way, we have not because this did happen

0:33:29.044 --> 0:33:32.524
<v Speaker 2>in twenty twenty five, right, all these Republicans who confirmed

0:33:34.484 --> 0:33:37.764
<v Speaker 2>RFK Junior and Pete Hegseth, right, like, I mean.

0:33:37.884 --> 0:33:43.524
<v Speaker 3>You know, yeah, talk about some fucking have some fucking spine, right, Like,

0:33:43.724 --> 0:33:46.324
<v Speaker 3>those are very very powerful positions that will have you know,

0:33:47.044 --> 0:33:48.284
<v Speaker 3>impacts for years to come.

0:33:48.404 --> 0:33:51.924
<v Speaker 2>And so they deserve maybe Need of the Year. Right,

0:33:53.284 --> 0:33:55.884
<v Speaker 2>if I had brad Lander in there for an obscure endorsement,

0:33:56.164 --> 0:33:59.044
<v Speaker 2>I rescind that award brad Lander, and I give it

0:33:59.084 --> 0:34:02.804
<v Speaker 2>to congressional or Senate Republicans who confirmed. And it's fine.

0:34:02.804 --> 0:34:06.404
<v Speaker 2>You're going to have some partisan, very conservative nominees, right,

0:34:06.404 --> 0:34:08.764
<v Speaker 2>but p exth that r FFK Junior, maybe Tulsa Gabbard,

0:34:09.044 --> 0:34:14.764
<v Speaker 2>you know those three man up show some spine and voting.

0:34:14.764 --> 0:34:17.164
<v Speaker 2>A guess these people that are are are not qualified for.

0:34:17.164 --> 0:34:21.684
<v Speaker 1>Their yes, absolutely absolutely all right. So now we've got

0:34:21.724 --> 0:34:25.884
<v Speaker 1>two awards that only one of us gives. So we're

0:34:25.884 --> 0:34:29.004
<v Speaker 1>going to have the Nate Silver Award for Riverian of

0:34:29.044 --> 0:34:31.724
<v Speaker 1>the Year. So, Nate, who are you going to award

0:34:32.164 --> 0:34:33.444
<v Speaker 1>the Riverian of the Year.

0:34:33.964 --> 0:34:37.564
<v Speaker 2>I think since we haven't fitted in elsewhere here, we

0:34:37.564 --> 0:34:39.964
<v Speaker 2>should probably give it to Michael ms Rahi, Right, winning

0:34:40.044 --> 0:34:43.644
<v Speaker 2>both the main event and the Poker Players Championship in

0:34:43.644 --> 0:34:46.124
<v Speaker 2>the same year. You know, it is this kind of

0:34:46.124 --> 0:34:50.244
<v Speaker 2>once in a century type of accomplishment. You know, he

0:34:50.284 --> 0:34:55.284
<v Speaker 2>probably tilts more toward the Djon side of things than

0:34:56.204 --> 0:34:58.484
<v Speaker 2>maybe the pure Riverian side, but like it's a big

0:34:58.524 --> 0:35:01.164
<v Speaker 2>ac contiument in the Poker World, and we often talk

0:35:01.244 --> 0:35:03.884
<v Speaker 2>negatively about poker on the show. It makes a lot

0:35:03.884 --> 0:35:06.244
<v Speaker 2>of negative headlines, right, but that that was a positive

0:35:06.244 --> 0:35:07.724
<v Speaker 2>for the game. He's a very popular player.

0:35:08.644 --> 0:35:13.644
<v Speaker 1>Congratulations mister Msrachi, Congratulations mister Grinder.

0:35:16.564 --> 0:35:18.804
<v Speaker 2>And the Maria kind of Cove Award for the biggest

0:35:18.844 --> 0:35:19.564
<v Speaker 2>bluff of the year.

0:35:20.444 --> 0:35:24.244
<v Speaker 1>I am going to go ahead and hand that to

0:35:25.124 --> 0:35:28.484
<v Speaker 1>the subject of one of our recent Risky Business episodes,

0:35:28.524 --> 0:35:33.484
<v Speaker 1>Olivia NUTSI for convincing people over and over that she's

0:35:33.524 --> 0:35:36.764
<v Speaker 1>a really good writer and a good journalist and getting

0:35:36.844 --> 0:35:42.844
<v Speaker 1>hired over and over despite ethical lapses and frankly, really

0:35:42.884 --> 0:35:46.004
<v Speaker 1>bad writing when she doesn't have a good editor, as

0:35:46.004 --> 0:35:51.004
<v Speaker 1>we discovered in American Canto, and I, you know, she

0:35:51.444 --> 0:35:53.404
<v Speaker 1>It's one of these things where I wanted to give

0:35:53.444 --> 0:35:55.964
<v Speaker 1>her a lot of the awards because like you would

0:35:55.964 --> 0:35:58.924
<v Speaker 1>think that, like if she could actually write well or

0:35:58.964 --> 0:36:02.484
<v Speaker 1>took the time to write well, like then you know,

0:36:02.564 --> 0:36:04.564
<v Speaker 1>it would be a totally different thing. But I think

0:36:04.564 --> 0:36:07.244
<v Speaker 1>that she has bluffed her way, using a lot of

0:36:07.244 --> 0:36:11.124
<v Speaker 1>different attributes to a point where people assumed she was

0:36:11.124 --> 0:36:14.604
<v Speaker 1>a brilliant writer, and the evidence points to the contrary.

0:36:14.884 --> 0:36:17.724
<v Speaker 1>And it seems like as other people have pointed out

0:36:17.724 --> 0:36:19.924
<v Speaker 1>the real heroes of the story are her editors at

0:36:19.964 --> 0:36:22.764
<v Speaker 1>New York Magazine, who made her writing seem very very good.

0:36:23.284 --> 0:36:25.284
<v Speaker 1>So I'm giving her the biggest bluff.

0:36:25.004 --> 0:36:28.764
<v Speaker 2>Of the year. Her ex fiancee Ryan Liza isn't looking much.

0:36:29.564 --> 0:36:31.524
<v Speaker 1>No, he is a no no, but you.

0:36:31.564 --> 0:36:35.684
<v Speaker 2>Know it's part five of his opus, right, and he's like,

0:36:35.764 --> 0:36:38.124
<v Speaker 2>I came to New York for twenty four hours trying

0:36:38.164 --> 0:36:40.804
<v Speaker 2>resolve situation, and I wound up in this hotel with

0:36:40.844 --> 0:36:43.604
<v Speaker 2>her for five days. It's like brow that you did

0:36:43.644 --> 0:36:45.884
<v Speaker 2>she forcibly forcibly abduct you?

0:36:46.164 --> 0:36:46.364
<v Speaker 1>Right?

0:36:47.204 --> 0:36:50.644
<v Speaker 2>And like ill anyway, that whole thing, that whole nexus

0:36:50.644 --> 0:36:53.324
<v Speaker 2>of events. I you know, yeah, And of course RFK

0:36:53.484 --> 0:36:57.164
<v Speaker 2>isn't messed up in this. I don't know. I don't know, Maria, yep, I.

0:36:57.484 --> 0:37:00.604
<v Speaker 1>Totally agree with you. I don't know is the correct answer. Anyway,

0:37:00.644 --> 0:37:04.844
<v Speaker 1>Congratulations Olivia, You're getting biggest bluff of the year. So

0:37:05.484 --> 0:37:08.044
<v Speaker 1>I don't I don't know because I don't really make

0:37:08.244 --> 0:37:11.804
<v Speaker 1>bets myself. What do you think do you have most

0:37:11.804 --> 0:37:15.084
<v Speaker 1>plus ev bet and most negative ev bet of the

0:37:15.164 --> 0:37:16.804
<v Speaker 1>year where you just couldn't help yourself.

0:37:17.444 --> 0:37:23.004
<v Speaker 2>Uh, I'm trying to think, you know, in terms of again,

0:37:23.164 --> 0:37:24.644
<v Speaker 2>it's not an election year, so you're kind of not

0:37:24.684 --> 0:37:30.364
<v Speaker 2>making as many bets. I think, uh, you know, look,

0:37:30.404 --> 0:37:34.644
<v Speaker 2>my Nvidio stock has done well. I mean actually, okay,

0:37:34.644 --> 0:37:36.444
<v Speaker 2>so one thing I did is that, like I don't

0:37:36.484 --> 0:37:38.444
<v Speaker 2>know that man angel stocks by my own some when

0:37:38.484 --> 0:37:45.204
<v Speaker 2>I was booking my reservations for Vegas for the Worldsare's

0:37:45.204 --> 0:37:48.644
<v Speaker 2>Poker and realize kind of how much cheaper the hotel

0:37:48.764 --> 0:37:53.604
<v Speaker 2>rooms were. I sold some gaming company stocks. As a

0:37:53.604 --> 0:37:56.084
<v Speaker 2>result of that, I'm like this super viarius for the industry,

0:37:56.164 --> 0:37:58.564
<v Speaker 2>and that's trade's gone well. So I'm going to give

0:37:58.604 --> 0:38:03.004
<v Speaker 2>myself credit for that, and like worst bet of the year.

0:38:03.124 --> 0:38:06.324
<v Speaker 2>I mean, my NFL model really hates the Chicago Bears,

0:38:06.364 --> 0:38:08.484
<v Speaker 2>who are now nine and four, right, so the Bears

0:38:08.484 --> 0:38:10.884
<v Speaker 2>of have I think they're bad, but the Bears have

0:38:10.924 --> 0:38:12.364
<v Speaker 2>cost me a lot of money.

0:38:13.244 --> 0:38:15.404
<v Speaker 1>You're still bearish on the Bears, but you have lost

0:38:15.444 --> 0:38:15.684
<v Speaker 1>a life.

0:38:16.004 --> 0:38:17.524
<v Speaker 2>If I'm like just exhausted at the end of a

0:38:17.524 --> 0:38:20.844
<v Speaker 2>booker tournament, you know, I'll kind of like kind of

0:38:20.884 --> 0:38:23.884
<v Speaker 2>do a little mini punt like I was playing. It

0:38:23.964 --> 0:38:26.564
<v Speaker 2>was randomly in Florida to give a conference and like

0:38:26.644 --> 0:38:30.884
<v Speaker 2>played this five K tournament the last day of their

0:38:30.924 --> 0:38:34.764
<v Speaker 2>WT festival, right was waiting for cashame table opening them

0:38:34.804 --> 0:38:36.724
<v Speaker 2>after I busted out of the five k and played

0:38:36.724 --> 0:38:39.524
<v Speaker 2>a three hundred dollars tournament, right like a bounty tournament.

0:38:39.564 --> 0:38:44.684
<v Speaker 2>I'm like, I really do not feel like like being

0:38:44.724 --> 0:38:46.924
<v Speaker 2>here knitting it up with five big lines when the

0:38:46.964 --> 0:38:48.964
<v Speaker 2>first place is only a couple thousand bucks, right, and

0:38:49.004 --> 0:38:51.444
<v Speaker 2>I'm not gonna win any bounties. And so I know

0:38:51.604 --> 0:38:57.644
<v Speaker 2>I overcalled with ten or jack nine of diamonds versus

0:38:57.644 --> 0:38:59.284
<v Speaker 2>three other players, so I could have gotten a bounty

0:38:59.284 --> 0:39:01.284
<v Speaker 2>from one of them, and I'm like, I have four

0:39:01.284 --> 0:39:04.724
<v Speaker 2>big one. Actually, it's probably fine, It's probably all fine, Yeah,

0:39:05.484 --> 0:39:07.284
<v Speaker 2>but I just want to get out of here. I

0:39:07.364 --> 0:39:09.804
<v Speaker 2>want to go. I haven't eaten been there.

0:39:10.644 --> 0:39:14.924
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, We've all been there. When you get tired at

0:39:14.924 --> 0:39:17.644
<v Speaker 1>the end of a long day, like, decision making quality

0:39:17.724 --> 0:39:21.484
<v Speaker 1>definitely deteriorates, and it takes real mental discipline to like

0:39:21.524 --> 0:39:24.324
<v Speaker 1>stay focused and stay you know, stay with it up

0:39:24.404 --> 0:39:30.364
<v Speaker 1>until the end, and self knowledge to understand when you're

0:39:30.404 --> 0:39:34.444
<v Speaker 1>making suboptimal decisions because of that, because of that kind

0:39:34.484 --> 0:39:38.684
<v Speaker 1>of end of day, Like, I've definitely had situations where

0:39:38.724 --> 0:39:40.764
<v Speaker 1>I've been like, you know what, I just want to

0:39:40.804 --> 0:39:43.084
<v Speaker 1>go to dinner, Like I don't have that many chips,

0:39:43.284 --> 0:39:45.964
<v Speaker 1>and like dinner break is in an hour, but like

0:39:46.004 --> 0:39:48.404
<v Speaker 1>I just want to either spin it or bust so

0:39:48.444 --> 0:39:51.364
<v Speaker 1>that I have a longer dinner. Right, Like I've definitely,

0:39:51.484 --> 0:39:53.804
<v Speaker 1>I've definitely done stuff like that, And I know it's

0:39:53.844 --> 0:39:56.644
<v Speaker 1>not good. Right, That's a horrible, horrible decision. That is

0:39:56.684 --> 0:39:58.604
<v Speaker 1>not how you're supposed to be making decisions. That is

0:39:58.644 --> 0:40:01.324
<v Speaker 1>not how you play poker. But that happens in real

0:40:01.364 --> 0:40:05.044
<v Speaker 1>life too, when sometimes you just like do a fuck

0:40:05.084 --> 0:40:07.124
<v Speaker 1>it decision because you're tired.

0:40:08.164 --> 0:40:10.284
<v Speaker 2>Hang, grey is really bad. I figured it out, right,

0:40:10.284 --> 0:40:11.444
<v Speaker 2>don't try to agree.

0:40:11.164 --> 0:40:17.604
<v Speaker 1>This very bad. Well, that concludes our riskies for the year.

0:40:18.044 --> 0:40:22.804
<v Speaker 1>Congratulations to all of our winners, and our condolences to

0:40:22.844 --> 0:40:26.004
<v Speaker 1>some of our winners, and we will we will maintain

0:40:26.084 --> 0:40:27.964
<v Speaker 1>that even though for now, for now I have the

0:40:28.044 --> 0:40:31.844
<v Speaker 1>Risky Business Poker bracelet, we still have several weeks to go,

0:40:32.524 --> 0:40:35.724
<v Speaker 1>several poker tournaments to play. And you know, it would

0:40:35.764 --> 0:40:39.044
<v Speaker 1>be wonderful, Nate, if we both had really strong ends

0:40:39.044 --> 0:40:42.044
<v Speaker 1>to the year and had to kind of had to

0:40:42.124 --> 0:40:44.244
<v Speaker 1>reconsider how that bracelet is divided.

0:40:45.404 --> 0:40:47.484
<v Speaker 2>That would be a wonderful way to end the year, wouldn't.

0:40:47.164 --> 0:40:50.084
<v Speaker 1>Ever, it really would, it really would. Best of luck

0:40:50.124 --> 0:40:52.684
<v Speaker 1>to both of us. Let's let's go crush at the

0:40:52.684 --> 0:41:02.004
<v Speaker 1>poker tables. Let us know what you think of the show.

0:41:02.204 --> 0:41:06.284
<v Speaker 1>Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm.

0:41:06.404 --> 0:41:09.884
<v Speaker 1>Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.

0:41:09.164 --> 0:41:11.964
<v Speaker 2>And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool

0:41:11.964 --> 0:41:15.924
<v Speaker 2>production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced

0:41:15.924 --> 0:41:20.244
<v Speaker 2>by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia,

0:41:20.404 --> 0:41:23.284
<v Speaker 2>Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our

0:41:23.324 --> 0:41:27.084
<v Speaker 2>executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.

0:41:27.684 --> 0:41:29.884
<v Speaker 1>If you like the show, please rate and review us

0:41:29.924 --> 0:41:32.604
<v Speaker 1>so other people can find us too, But once again,

0:41:32.724 --> 0:41:34.564
<v Speaker 1>only if you like us. We don't want those bad

0:41:34.564 --> 0:41:36.764
<v Speaker 1>reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.