Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making
Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova.
Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Now today in the show, it
Speaker 2: is the annual edition of the Riskies.
Speaker 1: Use.
Speaker 2: There are awards for the best and worst decisions of
Speaker 2: the year from kind of a gambling slash game, theory, lens,
Speaker 2: a little bit of poker, a little bit of sports,
Speaker 2: a little bit of politics, just the usual Nate Emeria tactics. Marie,
Speaker 2: are you are you excited?
Speaker 1: I am excited, Nate. I love handing out awards, especially
Speaker 1: for bad decision making. And there have been a lot
Speaker 1: of bad decisions this year.
Speaker 2: A record number. I mean, it's a world accelerates. Were
Speaker 2: the more than bad decisions last year? I don't know,
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: We've we've had some pretty bad decision years. But yeah,
Speaker 1: let's let's get into the risk case and we can
Speaker 1: we can maybe our listeners can compare to last year
Speaker 1: to see which year was worse.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean, we have we have a new president.
Speaker 2: It feels like Trump's the president forever, right, But like
Speaker 2: when the year began, Joseph Robinette Biden was president.
Speaker 1: Then why is it so funny. Speaking of humor, why
Speaker 1: is it so funny when you say his middle name?
Speaker 2: I don't know, Robinette. What the fuck is that you know?
Speaker 2: Is that some Delaware? Are we sure Delaware is real?
Speaker 2: Have you ever been to Delaware?
Speaker 1: Are you sure birds are real? Name?
Speaker 2: I'm birds more than Delaware, probably probably oh point three
Speaker 2: percent of our listeners are in Delaware. We don't mean
Speaker 2: to insult you. We know it's a beautiful I've been.
Speaker 1: To Delaware on the train. Usually, pass.
Speaker 2: On a train doesn't count. You have to like, uh, sleep,
Speaker 2: eat or pee somewhere birth to count. That is having
Speaker 2: visited estate.
Speaker 1: Wait wait, wait, wait, hold on. Peeing in a state
Speaker 1: counts as visiting. So like if I get off the
Speaker 1: highway and use the rest area, it counts as having visited.
Speaker 2: Correct, fascinating.
Speaker 1: Those are the rules.
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, those are the rules.
Speaker 1: Those are the rules. Fine, excellent. I don't know if
Speaker 1: I've ever been to Delaware. I passed through on a train.
Speaker 1: I've probably peed on the train in Delaware.
Speaker 2: No, No, the train. You have to leave the security perimeter, Maria, Like,
Speaker 2: it's a little bit if you go outside and like
Speaker 2: take like a stretch break or or a smoke break
Speaker 2: or a bathroom break at the station in Wilmington. I
Speaker 2: think that counts, but like I don't. You have to
Speaker 2: leave the actual train, all right.
Speaker 1: So let's get on with the year in the rear
Speaker 1: view mirror and the Risky Awards. So our first ward
Speaker 1: goes to the hero call of the Year, which is
Speaker 1: a decision that looked crazy at the time but turned
Speaker 1: out to be absolutely brilliant. And I felt myself coming
Speaker 1: up short. I was like, there were a lot of
Speaker 1: shit decisions and decisions that looked bad at the time
Speaker 1: and ended up being bad. What's something that you think
Speaker 1: is something that looked crazy and turned out to be
Speaker 1: absolutely brilliant.
Speaker 2: I guess Zoron Mumdanni choosing to run for mayor, and you,
Speaker 2: I mean, it didn't seem crazy.
Speaker 1: It didn't seem crazy. That's the thing.
Speaker 2: I thought, what you going to do?
Speaker 1: I had Mom Donnie with a question mark because like
Speaker 1: Mum Donnie fits into it. We definitely need to give
Speaker 1: Zoron Mum Donnie an award for the risk case. But
Speaker 1: maybe it is hero call of the year. Maybe the
Speaker 1: people who supported Zoron very early on are the hero
Speaker 1: call of the year.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess all the people who sucked up
Speaker 2: to Trump and then got pardoned. You gotta, you know,
Speaker 2: give credit whords to George Sentos for example. I don't know,
Speaker 2: but I guess it didn't seem crazy.
Speaker 1: It it does seem crazy. So, yeah, hero call like
Speaker 1: something where you're you know, it's it's a hero call
Speaker 1: for poker players out there. You know what a hero
Speaker 1: call is. It's not you're holding aces and you end
Speaker 1: up calling top set. It's you know, you're calling with
Speaker 1: ace high on a you know, on an incredibly wet board.
Speaker 1: Seems crazy, but it turns out to be brilliant. Or
Speaker 1: you're calling with jack hi or ten high because you
Speaker 1: think that the person has a busted straight draw and
Speaker 1: has five high and uh, yeah, that's the hero call
Speaker 1: of the year. Well we'll put mom Donnie there kind
Speaker 1: of in yeah with a question mark, because I think
Speaker 1: that at the beginning of the campaign, when he did
Speaker 1: decide to run, like, the odds really did not look
Speaker 1: good for him. Nate, do you happen to remember what
Speaker 1: the prediction markets and just what the polls were saying.
Speaker 2: I'm sure you start. I'm sure he was at one
Speaker 2: percent or whatever.
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, he was like a incredible underdog right at
Speaker 1: the beginning. Yeah, all right, well let's try number two.
Speaker 1: The worst fold, the decision that left everyone wondering why
Speaker 1: walk away from such a sure thing?
Speaker 2: I mean, quite obviously if you're a sports fan. The
Speaker 2: Luca Dontch trade was this year, and it was still
Speaker 2: the most inexplicable trade in sports history. Lucas averaging thirty
Speaker 2: five points a game, nine rebounds, nine assists this year,
Speaker 2: shooting forty seven percent on field goals, Dallas trade him
Speaker 2: for the perpetually injured Anthony Davis. They did back into
Speaker 2: getting number one overall pick Cooper Fly due to a
Speaker 2: stroke of luck. Nevertheless, general manager Nico Harrison was recently
Speaker 2: fired from the team. Yeah, this was like the still
Speaker 2: the weirdest trade in sports history. I was at this
Speaker 2: random little poker tournament in Maryland quite late. My phone
Speaker 2: was dead. When it scrolled across the ESPN bottom line,
Speaker 2: I like literally thought I was having like a stroke
Speaker 2: or hallucinating. I'm like, why the fuck would you trade
Speaker 2: Luca for Anthony Davis? But it was real. I mean,
Speaker 2: it has to be like the winner here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I mean, I think that for sports fans,
Speaker 1: that's definitely the winner. And I actually remember doing this
Speaker 1: podcast episode with you and reading about this, and as
Speaker 1: a non sports fan, I was like, wait, what in
Speaker 1: the world is going on? This is very weird. So
Speaker 1: I had a different one for worst fold. I had
Speaker 1: the Democrats in the government shutdown folding and deciding to
Speaker 1: avoid that. I had that as the worst fold of
Speaker 1: the year for the decision that left everyone wondering, what
Speaker 1: the fuck did you just do? Why did we why
Speaker 1: were we even in this pot right?
Speaker 2: Like?
Speaker 1: Why did we play this hand to the river? If
Speaker 1: you're going to fold, like, what were you thinking you do?
Speaker 2: The next one is cooler of the year. Cooler if
Speaker 2: you're not familiar, is when when you have a very
Speaker 2: good hand, your opponent has an even better hand and
Speaker 2: there's that much you can do to avoid it. So
Speaker 2: you have packet kings. I have King to Maria as
Speaker 2: pocket aces.
Speaker 1: So for this one, and this one is a little
Speaker 1: bit controversial, but I would put Sam Altman and open Ai,
Speaker 1: who was leading up until very recently, kind of in
Speaker 1: all indicators, and then I've realized there's somewhat of our
Speaker 1: recency bias here, But you know, absolute great hand has
Speaker 1: been like all the best researchers market edge and seems
Speaker 1: to have somehow fallen behind by sticking to kind of
Speaker 1: their you know, their approach and potentially putting a little
Speaker 1: bit too much weight on how do we generate money
Speaker 1: right away with things like Sora et cetera, like basically
Speaker 1: creating slop as opposed to trying to refine models and
Speaker 1: seeing you know, Gemini Claude leapfrog over them in a
Speaker 1: lot of different metrics. So I think that there was
Speaker 1: no reason that had to have happened, because I think
Speaker 1: that open Ai had the biggest resources out of any company. So,
Speaker 1: like I said, maybe this is maybe you don't agree
Speaker 1: with that, but for me, like it seems like they
Speaker 1: had a great hand, but it's right now. They'll probably
Speaker 1: not They're not going to lose in the long term,
Speaker 1: but right now it seems like they're on the back foot.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean this is a slightly different spirit of
Speaker 2: cooler in which it's kind of like maybe misplaying a
Speaker 2: very robust situation, right, Yeah, I know. I think the
Speaker 2: smartest people who are observers of AI say that, like
Speaker 2: open Ai has probably lost its lead in the large
Speaker 2: language model category squandered.
Speaker 1: It's lead.
Speaker 2: Like the euation is also going up by three acts
Speaker 2: or five x or something over the course of the year.
Speaker 2: I'm sure Sam Altman is still sleeping well at night.
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, you know who well, I mean,
Speaker 2: if you want another sports one, Notre Dame missing the
Speaker 2: college football playoff because they think they're special and refuse
Speaker 2: to join a conference. That's maybe a little esoteric Maria,
Speaker 2: but like, but they're they're privileged, a privileged bunch of
Speaker 2: kids who who you know, think they're special and couldn't
Speaker 2: get in line and join a conference and play a
Speaker 2: real schedule. But that's that's you know, not a hearing
Speaker 2: nor there.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, there we have it, so tilt of
Speaker 1: the year, so kind of what's the most emotional decision
Speaker 1: of the year. I've got I've got lots for this one.
Speaker 2: I mean, it feels like we have to mention Elon
Speaker 2: Muskets some point had a fantastic year and you know,
Speaker 2: kind of crashing and burning out of Doge even faster
Speaker 2: than I thought, and I thought it wouldn't last particularly long. Yeah,
Speaker 2: I think I think, you know, I think Elon's got
Speaker 2: to be up there. What do you think.
Speaker 1: We're I was going to give it to RFK, who
Speaker 1: has emotionally, you know, been so I mean, he's doing
Speaker 1: quite well, He's accomplished everything. But I think that he
Speaker 1: is one of the most emotional people that we have seen,
Speaker 1: and his crusade against vaccine, against science in general, against
Speaker 1: NIH funding, against all of that, seems to be very
Speaker 1: emotionally driven, someone who cannot be convinced by any data
Speaker 1: and just has this personal vendetta and feels like everything
Speaker 1: is personal about him, right, Like everything that he says
Speaker 1: he makes it feel like, oh, people are out to
Speaker 1: get me personally, and I am the scapegoat and I
Speaker 1: am going to prove them all wrong. So it seems
Speaker 1: to me like he's the tiltiest person like I would actually,
Speaker 1: you know, I would bet that playing against him at
Speaker 1: the poker table would be an interesting experience. I think
Speaker 1: he's someone who would let he would take everything personally
Speaker 1: and really let the losses go to go to his head.
Speaker 2: Do you think that Trump would be good at poker? Now?
Speaker 1: I don't. We've talked about this before. I think that
Speaker 1: Trump's over confidence and overblown ego would keep him from
Speaker 1: being good at poker, right, he doesn't take negative feedback,
Speaker 1: he would think that he's a lot better than he
Speaker 1: actually is, which is actually idea, like, those are the
Speaker 1: best people to play poker against, the ones who have
Speaker 1: an overblown sense of their own skills, right, because they're
Speaker 1: not going to be taking negative criticism, negative feedback, and
Speaker 1: they're not going to be learning as much, and they're
Speaker 1: going to be the ones who are blaming the cards,
Speaker 1: blaming the deck, you know, blaming everything except their own play.
Speaker 1: And you want that, right, you want someone who is
Speaker 1: incapable of learning from those types of things. Now, he
Speaker 1: would be someone who I think would be very successful
Speaker 1: against knits in the short term because he'd be super aggressive, right,
Speaker 1: he'd be someone who would kind of fight for every pot,
Speaker 1: who would bet big, who would like have all this
Speaker 1: bluster and confidence. And if you don't see through that,
Speaker 1: I think that aggression pays off in the immediate term,
Speaker 1: but in the long term, if you then don't adjust
Speaker 1: and keep that up and you're playing against good players
Speaker 1: who do adjust to you, you're going to go broke.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and poker the better failure mode is aggression, you
Speaker 2: know what I mean? Yeah, you induce mistakes and different
Speaker 2: types of mistakes from your opponents. And you know, I
Speaker 2: think it'd be better than better than Biden. Better than Biden.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's not saying much, but yeah, he
Speaker 1: probably would be better than all right, So let's let's
Speaker 1: go to another good decision. Ish, it doesn't have to
Speaker 1: be good. Actually, it's the GTO call of the year,
Speaker 1: so game theory optimalist call. So the most balanced sound
Speaker 1: decision of the year. What do we got for balanced?
Speaker 2: Well, especially in the NFL in general strategy on fourth
Speaker 2: downs for examples, becoming much more gt O. But i'll
Speaker 2: do a politician when here give it to Gavin Newsome.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, that's a good one.
Speaker 2: Not my favorite, not my favorite personality. However, he did
Speaker 2: understand that if Republicans were willing to engage in mid
Speaker 2: decade redistricting in states like Texas, that California should reciprocate.
Speaker 2: It's kind of straight out of like the Prisoner's Alemma.
Speaker 2: And you think aggressive gerrymandering is bad, even think the
Speaker 2: GUP started, You know, you have to respond, and so
Speaker 2: Newsoen did that aggressively and effectively, and so he wins
Speaker 2: this award in my.
Speaker 1: Opinion, Yeah, I think I think that that that's actually
Speaker 1: a very good, very good pick on your side, Nate.
Speaker 1: And it's a breath of fresh air to see someone
Speaker 1: actually make a good political decision. Right, We've had so
Speaker 1: many shitty political decisions this year, and on both sides
Speaker 1: of the aisle, right, like so many people just doing
Speaker 1: things where you're like, what in the world are you
Speaker 1: even thinking? And he did. He did see that opportunity
Speaker 1: and he executed it well. He also was able to
Speaker 1: get the support he needed to pass the measures that
Speaker 1: he needed. He was able to even people who don't
Speaker 1: like him, you know, had to smile at his social
Speaker 1: media kind of his social media team was good at
Speaker 1: mimicking Trump and kind of you know, making making him
Speaker 1: at least for a moment when that social media war.
Speaker 1: So people I think.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not I'm not sure gonna gi him too
Speaker 2: much credit for that part. But but but he has
Speaker 2: getting ground, and he has getting ground in like prediction
Speaker 2: markets for the nomination race and polls and so you know, look,
Speaker 2: I mean a lot of it is cringe. Unfortunately, cringe
Speaker 2: sometimes works. Cringe. There's a big audience for and you know,
Speaker 2: especially for like older MSNBC watching Democrat. They love the
Speaker 2: fucking Cringe. They love Cringe, and Gavin Newsom is cringe.
Speaker 2: His Twitter account is cringe, and Cringe is winning.
Speaker 1: We'll be back right after this.
Speaker 2: Uh okay. Next, the Danny Kanaman Memorial Cognitive Bias of
Speaker 2: the Year Award, Cognitive Bias Best explains twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: I am going to say, uh a mix of I mean,
Speaker 1: these are very related of recency bias with historic amnesia
Speaker 1: and general like alliteracy about how things have played out
Speaker 1: in history, where all of the decisions seem to be
Speaker 1: focused on such short term thinking, right, just using like
Speaker 1: who who are we? Like, who am I beating right now?
Speaker 1: Who am I trying to get one over on? Right now?
Speaker 1: Who am I trying to beat today without kind of
Speaker 1: this consideration of weight, Like, there's a lot of history
Speaker 1: here and this is not just the present moment. There
Speaker 1: are you know there there are data points that are
Speaker 1: going to kind of be helpful to me that happened
Speaker 1: way in the past, and I have to be thinking
Speaker 1: into the future as well, you know, things like you
Speaker 1: know tariffs, right, It just seems to just have a
Speaker 1: certain historical amnesia where you know, how did this kind
Speaker 1: of thing play out in the past, but in general,
Speaker 1: just all the decisions seem to be very shortsighted and
Speaker 1: very in the moment focused, without without grounding in how
Speaker 1: does this actually look? What are the implications? What can
Speaker 1: I take from historical lessons so that this decision is
Speaker 1: actually good for the future and not just for the
Speaker 1: present moment.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, it's pretty classic for new presidents to come
Speaker 2: in to the Oval Office and overread their men. Date
Speaker 2: Trump being so insistent on tariffs, I mean, even if
Speaker 2: they haven't had quite as much of a negative impact
Speaker 2: as some economists might have predicted. You know, consumers have
Speaker 2: been very gloomy about the economy for ever since Liberation
Speaker 2: Day quote unquote back in April. You know, without this
Speaker 2: investment in AI, it's not clear the economy will be
Speaker 2: growing very much at all. And Trump just won an
Speaker 2: election on inflation. Now one calls it affordability. You know what,
Speaker 2: call it fucking if I've already had this rant on
Speaker 2: the show before. You know, affordability feels too fucking euphemistic
Speaker 2: to me. Call it see a little too highbrow. Call
Speaker 2: it fucking inflation. You win an election on inflation, and
Speaker 2: then you pass a bunch of terror policies that cause
Speaker 2: higher inflation. It seems like some type of some type
Speaker 2: of cognitive bias or deserves to be somewhere in the
Speaker 2: in the negative category of these awards.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely absolutely, So let's uh, let's go on to
Speaker 1: our Djen of the Year, which we as of last
Speaker 1: year renamed the Epei Masuhara Award for Djen of the Year.
Speaker 1: We don't have anyone quite on that level, but there
Speaker 1: were a lot of contenders for this one.
Speaker 2: I mean, what about Chauncey Billups, the former head coach
Speaker 2: of the Portland Trail Blazer.
Speaker 1: Oh had Chauncey, I had Terry Rosier, I had all
Speaker 1: all the.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have.
Speaker 1: I mean we had the indictments, the NBA indictments, So
Speaker 1: you can you can take any of those athletes, coaches,
Speaker 1: like people who were making lots of money and who
Speaker 1: made very very questionable decisions that have jeopardized their.
Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna I'm gonna get with Chauncey. He's
Speaker 2: the most prominent of these figures, right. He is an
Speaker 2: NBA Hall of Famer, I believe, otherwise known as co
Speaker 2: Conspiratory Number eight. I believe or I forget which number
Speaker 2: he was, I'm gonna give I'm gonna give Chauncey the award.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's that makes sense. So I initially gave it
Speaker 1: to Chauncey, and then I thought maybe Terry because Terry
Speaker 1: actually threw games as well, so as far as we know,
Speaker 1: allegedly allegedly through games by letting people bet on like
Speaker 1: different outcomes and then you know, sitting out and uh
Speaker 1: fading injury, et cetera, et cetera. So depending on Yeah,
Speaker 1: but Chauncey Billups is obviously more prominent.
Speaker 2: So yeah, does Michael ms Rahey is her consideration.
Speaker 1: Here for Djen of the Year? Yeah, sure, why not?
Speaker 1: I mean, Michael Misrahi is quite a djen. He won
Speaker 1: the World Series main Event, he won the Players Championship,
Speaker 1: so Djen of the Year could be a good thing.
Speaker 2: There are rumors that he was like out quite late
Speaker 2: at various clubs and anyway, but I think I think
Speaker 2: Chauncey earned this. But in a weaker year that we'd
Speaker 2: have to consider Michael ms Rahi.
Speaker 1: That's that's that's fair. We we had a very robust
Speaker 1: slate of nominees this year. It's like the Oscars when
Speaker 1: you know, the best Picture nominees come out and you're
Speaker 1: like shit, like, how do I choose?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: This year, the Dejen of the Year slate was really full.
Speaker 1: We're sorry everyone who didn't get it better? Like next year,
Speaker 1: how about the Knit of the Year? Nate? Who do
Speaker 1: you think was the nidias this year?
Speaker 2: Who is a guy who falled as king at the
Speaker 2: final table? Is that Kenny Hallard is supposed to be
Speaker 2: a great guy, right, but it you couldn't give it
Speaker 2: to You could give it to Chuck Schumer for folding
Speaker 2: on the shutdown. Here's an obscure one, which I find
Speaker 2: kind of funny. Right, So, Brad Lander was the New
Speaker 2: York City compatroller is by some measures, was the most
Speaker 2: broadly liked candy in the New York mayor race, and
Speaker 2: he he basically endorsed Zoran and helped clinch Zoran finishing
Speaker 2: in first place in the in the primary right because
Speaker 2: he thought he was going to get I mean, I'm
Speaker 2: sure he hates Cuomo, which understandable, but he thought he
Speaker 2: was going to get like the deputy mayor's job. And
Speaker 2: Zora was like, nope, sorry, bro, you know I'll endorse
Speaker 2: your campaign for Congress. But like, so that was a
Speaker 2: case where like you make a sacrifice and wind up
Speaker 2: getting getting nothing for it, right, I mean, he got
Speaker 2: lots of kudos on Twitter from Democrats who don't like Cuomo,
Speaker 2: but like that comes to mind a little bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's an interesting one. Yeah, I was I
Speaker 1: was going to go with someone like Schumer in line
Speaker 1: with my Democratic shutdown as the worst fold of the year,
Speaker 1: because nance you know, that's the thing. If you're in it,
Speaker 1: you're gonna end up making nitty folds that you should
Speaker 1: not be making. Right, Like, those two things go hand
Speaker 1: in hand. One of the worst things about being in
Speaker 1: it is that you fold hands that you really should
Speaker 1: be calling and you don't put yourself Sure, you can
Speaker 1: protect your chips, but you also don't put yourself in
Speaker 1: a position to win. Right. That kind of strategy ends
Speaker 1: up putting you on the back foot repeatedly. And I
Speaker 1: think that that's kind of what happened here.
Speaker 2: Did you make any bad folds this here, Maria, I
Speaker 2: don't know.
Speaker 1: I well, no, no, in the sense that I wasn't shown.
Speaker 1: I think I'm sure that I made some very bad folds.
Speaker 1: But in order to know whether you made a bad fold.
Speaker 1: The person has to then show you what they had right,
Speaker 1: And if you aren't sure if they were bluffing or not,
Speaker 1: then you don't know if it was a bad fold.
Speaker 1: I'm guessing that I made some really bad folds this year,
Speaker 1: Like if I were betting on it, I would say,
Speaker 1: like over ninety percent certain that I've made some really
Speaker 1: bad folds. But I can't. I didn't have any of
Speaker 1: those situations where someone then showed me in their hand.
Speaker 1: I had situations where they then told me what they had,
Speaker 1: but I don't trust that because I don't trust poker
Speaker 1: players to actually tell me the truth about what they had.
Speaker 1: In a lot of situations poker players life.
Speaker 2: I had one in a home tournament where like this
Speaker 2: woman was quite bad at poker, and I had like
Speaker 2: it was a board with like three of a kind
Speaker 2: on the board. It was like, you know, seven seven seven,
Speaker 2: nine king or something right, And I had like a
Speaker 2: pair of nine full house right, and she battle a
Speaker 2: lot with a pair of sixes right, so underpair to
Speaker 2: the board a weaker full house and I had and
Speaker 2: I just thought, well, okay, is a really tight player.
Speaker 2: But like she didn't actually know, she didn't realize that
Speaker 2: like having a full house was not actually a great
Speaker 2: hand on that board because there's so many better full
Speaker 2: houses or quads. So I folded because I gave her
Speaker 2: too much credit. Basically, that's funny.
Speaker 1: There's a you know, the one of the pivotal poker
Speaker 1: scenes in Molly's Game. You've seen the movie, yes, So
Speaker 1: there's there's a scene where a good player makes a
Speaker 1: huge fold because he doesn't realize that he's playing against
Speaker 1: a bad player. He didn't realize I think that Brad
Speaker 1: was bad and then it ends up and then he'd
Speaker 1: buy mistake flashes one of the cards and he realizes
Speaker 1: that he made a bad fold and it puts him
Speaker 1: on megatilt and he hands up losing tons and tons
Speaker 1: of money. That is sometimes one of the worst things
Speaker 1: that you can do, which is actually an interesting consideration
Speaker 1: for this award. When you aren't capable, when you give
Speaker 1: other people too much credit, sometimes you can you can
Speaker 1: be nittier than you should be. And so that's why
Speaker 1: you know, for good decision making, you really need to
Speaker 1: be accurate in your evaluations, not only of yourself but
Speaker 1: of other people. And that can be really difficult. In
Speaker 1: the absence of data, right, Like, if you don't have
Speaker 1: enough data points, how do you make those determinations? And
Speaker 1: obviously some of it comes from experience, but then you
Speaker 1: fill in the blanks with biases, with you know what
Speaker 1: you're kind of you try to fill in the blanks
Speaker 1: as best you can. Sometimes you write, and sometimes you're
Speaker 1: just absolutely wrong. And sometimes Nate, have you, I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm sure you've been in this situation, both in poker
Speaker 1: and non in poker, I've had situations where I have
Speaker 1: folded huge hands, both literal and metaphorical, because I've read
Speaker 1: the other person as being incredibly strong, and I was
Speaker 1: right in that they thought they were incredibly strong, but
Speaker 1: they actually weren't, so the read was correct, but they
Speaker 1: didn't realize where they were relative to me in that situation.
Speaker 1: And so that's something.
Speaker 2: To where just a narrow piece of actual booker advice
Speaker 2: for listeners, right, because Marie and I both have this
Speaker 2: experience of playing an extremely wide range of game textures,
Speaker 2: from the toughest opponents in the world and high rollers
Speaker 2: to the worship you've ever seen play poker and like
Speaker 2: charity events, right, And when you get in that really
Speaker 2: bad section of the pool. Then you have to give
Speaker 2: some consideration to your absolute hand strength, right like that,
Speaker 2: Yeah I have a flush. There may be better flushes
Speaker 2: and full houses on the board. But like, but the
Speaker 2: fact is, disapponent might think top pair is good hand.
Speaker 2: They don't know how to read the relative strength of
Speaker 2: hands and so you know, so yeah, don't don't fold
Speaker 2: good hands for cheap against bad opponents who you don't
Speaker 2: have that firm a read on. Yeah right, we really
Speaker 2: and we really stereotype bad players based on you know,
Speaker 2: one or two pieces of information. And yeah, it's just
Speaker 2: a matter of hedging a little bit more.
Speaker 1: Absolutely absolutely staying on the poker. Uh. Note Risky Business bracelet,
Speaker 1: which host was the better poker player this year? I
Speaker 1: have no idea in Nate, I don't actually.
Speaker 2: Well, you won a tournament. Yeah, I think it has
Speaker 2: to be you, right right, I had been, i'd have
Speaker 2: been a World series.
Speaker 1: You had a better World Series than I did.
Speaker 2: I think winning a tournament that Maria.
Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate that night. But but risky business listeners,
Speaker 1: the year is not yet over. We still have a
Speaker 1: few weeks to go. I am in Vegas playing the
Speaker 1: World Poker Tour. Win Championships, and Nate is heading to
Speaker 1: the Bahamas to play in the double Tomorrow.
Speaker 2: I'll be in the Bahamas playing, uh, playing this twenty
Speaker 2: five K, sixty million guaranteed tournament. And it sure is
Speaker 2: gonna be nice, Maria. When I win that tournament, it's
Speaker 2: gonna and that will and that will.
Speaker 1: Actually I'm gonna have to give my Risky Business bracelet
Speaker 1: to you, Nate. I'm gonna have to give it back
Speaker 1: unless unless I win the ten thousand dollars made event
Speaker 1: here at the win, in which case we can just
Speaker 1: agree just to let the bracelet.
Speaker 2: No, I think, I think I think the paradise would
Speaker 2: still it would still away there. It's a sixty million
Speaker 2: guaranteed price. Bool.
Speaker 1: I understand, Nate. But I've already won a tournament this year,
Speaker 1: so I'm just I'm just saying.
Speaker 2: Okay, okay, okay, Marie, that will be.
Speaker 1: That will be putting me into two wins. But well,
Speaker 1: just but but when you win.
Speaker 2: Forward to that problem where we've both won these I know, amazing.
Speaker 1: Bracelets, it's gonna be it's gonna be a great problem
Speaker 1: to have. We're going to have to cut the Risky
Speaker 1: Business bracelet in half. I think in that situation and
Speaker 1: share it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna take it
Speaker 1: for myself because you you will be worthy of having
Speaker 1: the bracelet as well. Or maybe we get a second one.
Speaker 1: Maybe we uh, you know, go all out on the
Speaker 1: budget and get two bracelets.
Speaker 2: I'm look, I'm looking. I'm looking forward to my new
Speaker 2: vacation home and asking them and to buy with this with.
Speaker 1: This's been interesting. Are you Are you a skier?
Speaker 2: No skiing seems like a terrible idea. I'm not. I'm
Speaker 2: not a knit It just seems like don't people get
Speaker 2: injured all the time when they're skiing.
Speaker 1: They do?
Speaker 2: Yes, Yeah, that seems crazy, Like it's just like and
Speaker 2: when you talk to you, he's like, oh, yeah, I
Speaker 2: broke my broke my colorone one. You know, It's like
Speaker 2: it just seems like a very very very very high
Speaker 2: rate of injury.
Speaker 1: Yes, my family is a family of skiers. And I
Speaker 1: started skiing when I was I think, oh, five years old,
Speaker 1: And I don't really ski much anymore because you know,
Speaker 1: I don't live near a mountain, and at some point,
Speaker 1: like after college, I just kind of stopped skiing. Everyone
Speaker 1: else in my family continues skiing. I am the only
Speaker 1: person in my family who has not gotten the serious
Speaker 1: injury from skiing. Yeah, because I stopped everyone else broken bones,
Speaker 1: torn acls, concussions, and other traumatic head injuries. Like, you
Speaker 1: don't have to be a knit to be afraid of
Speaker 1: injuring yourself.
Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break. All right.
Speaker 1: We've got two awards from the podcast The Town About
Speaker 1: Hollywood that we awarded last year as well. So those
Speaker 1: two are the Mia Coolpa I Was Wrong Award and
Speaker 1: the second Haters I Was Right Award. So what do
Speaker 1: you have for those? Is there anything that you think
Speaker 1: you were wrong about or you were right about?
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I keep track of my sports bets.
Speaker 2: There's lots of individual things that I was wrong about,
Speaker 2: certainly on the sports side. You know. I'm thinking back
Speaker 2: on columns. I mean, I read a column earlier in
Speaker 2: the year about like how the market, like the stock market,
Speaker 2: wouldn't tame Trump or curb his excesses. I think that
Speaker 2: is more wrong than right, because it seems to he
Speaker 2: seems to be upset when like the arrows go down
Speaker 2: in the stock market quite a bit. I don't know,
Speaker 2: I mean, there weren't very many elections this year, which
Speaker 2: produces and oppeticially me to be obnoxiously wrong about things.
Speaker 2: I was almost wrong on the shut town. I thought
Speaker 2: that like this kind of pretense of like shutting the
Speaker 2: government down for for healthcare was not a very good plan,
Speaker 2: right and then and but then lo and behold, after
Speaker 2: a couple of weeks, Trump was threatening people's food stamps,
Speaker 2: said he was becoming much less popular. I'm like, oh boy,
Speaker 2: I'm I have to eat some curl on this one.
Speaker 2: And that's fucking cave. So I guess I was. I
Speaker 2: guess I was right, you know, I you know, for
Speaker 2: the other second haters category, Like there were two or
Speaker 2: three books about what a shitty condition that Biden was him,
Speaker 2: which was a point of emphasis for me last year.
Speaker 2: Of course, you know, I don't think Kamala Harris comes
Speaker 2: across very well on her memoir of the campaign trial either.
Speaker 2: So like the fact these people were fucking idiots, uh
Speaker 2: you know, I don't mean Harris, but like I mean
Speaker 2: the people surrounding Biden and Harris like that that felt
Speaker 2: very validated this year. I guess.
Speaker 1: Yeah. So for I'm going to say for the Mia Colpa,
Speaker 1: I was wrong Award. I think at the beginning of
Speaker 1: the year, I was under selling some of the promises
Speaker 1: of AI in a lot of areas, and I think
Speaker 1: that it has gotten so much better this past year. Like, sure,
Speaker 1: it's still hallucinates and like that that's funny.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of.
Speaker 1: Well, it's because of right, But you and I started
Speaker 1: the year on very different Like you were so much
Speaker 1: more bullish and I was so much more bearish. So
Speaker 1: I think we've probably like we're probably at the same
Speaker 1: point now, Nate. But for me it's an I was
Speaker 1: wrong and for you it was you know, it's one
Speaker 1: of these things where we've both recalibrated with the new
Speaker 1: data and I was like, Okay, you know in some
Speaker 1: of these areas there's a lot of promise that I
Speaker 1: didn't really realize. And you, on the other hand, were
Speaker 1: so optimistic that now you're like, oh, there's You've had
Speaker 1: to calibrate it down, which is kind of funny. So
Speaker 1: I think I think we've met in the middle. The
Speaker 1: second haters I was right, Award. I'm going to say
Speaker 1: that the attack on higher education that was orchestrated by
Speaker 1: you know, Trump and his cronies, a lot of people
Speaker 1: were like, yeah, you know, fuck Harvard, blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: But I think that I were already seeing with the
Speaker 1: cuts and funding and the kind of drain in students
Speaker 1: and all of this, that this is going to really
Speaker 1: really hurt the United States for many, many years to come.
Speaker 1: So I think I was right, what have it.
Speaker 2: You might have to use down? Yeah, they are using
Speaker 2: it good. Good, No, like it is bad. But like
Speaker 2: all the things Trump has done, I think higher education,
Speaker 2: elite higher education. I'm a big fan of state schools. Right,
Speaker 2: there's some schools like my I'm a minor university to
Speaker 2: set up more for a free speech. Yeah, I'm I agree,
Speaker 2: it's objectively bad. I'm not very sympathetic.
Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think that you know, curbing cancer research
Speaker 1: and all the things that these schools spread do it
Speaker 1: is really bad.
Speaker 2: By the way, we have not because this did happen
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five, right, all these Republicans who confirmed
Speaker 2: RFK Junior and Pete Hegseth, right, like, I mean.
Speaker 3: You know, yeah, talk about some fucking have some fucking spine, right, Like,
Speaker 3: those are very very powerful positions that will have you know,
Speaker 3: impacts for years to come.
Speaker 2: And so they deserve maybe Need of the Year. Right,
Speaker 2: if I had brad Lander in there for an obscure endorsement,
Speaker 2: I rescind that award brad Lander, and I give it
Speaker 2: to congressional or Senate Republicans who confirmed. And it's fine.
Speaker 2: You're going to have some partisan, very conservative nominees, right,
Speaker 2: but p exth that r FFK Junior, maybe Tulsa Gabbard,
Speaker 2: you know those three man up show some spine and voting.
Speaker 2: A guess these people that are are are not qualified for.
Speaker 1: Their yes, absolutely absolutely all right. So now we've got
Speaker 1: two awards that only one of us gives. So we're
Speaker 1: going to have the Nate Silver Award for Riverian of
Speaker 1: the Year. So, Nate, who are you going to award
Speaker 1: the Riverian of the Year.
Speaker 2: I think since we haven't fitted in elsewhere here, we
Speaker 2: should probably give it to Michael ms Rahi, Right, winning
Speaker 2: both the main event and the Poker Players Championship in
Speaker 2: the same year. You know, it is this kind of
Speaker 2: once in a century type of accomplishment. You know, he
Speaker 2: probably tilts more toward the Djon side of things than
Speaker 2: maybe the pure Riverian side, but like it's a big
Speaker 2: ac contiument in the Poker World, and we often talk
Speaker 2: negatively about poker on the show. It makes a lot
Speaker 2: of negative headlines, right, but that that was a positive
Speaker 2: for the game. He's a very popular player.
Speaker 1: Congratulations mister Msrachi, Congratulations mister Grinder.
Speaker 2: And the Maria kind of Cove Award for the biggest
Speaker 2: bluff of the year.
Speaker 1: I am going to go ahead and hand that to
Speaker 1: the subject of one of our recent Risky Business episodes,
Speaker 1: Olivia NUTSI for convincing people over and over that she's
Speaker 1: a really good writer and a good journalist and getting
Speaker 1: hired over and over despite ethical lapses and frankly, really
Speaker 1: bad writing when she doesn't have a good editor, as
Speaker 1: we discovered in American Canto, and I, you know, she
Speaker 1: It's one of these things where I wanted to give
Speaker 1: her a lot of the awards because like you would
Speaker 1: think that, like if she could actually write well or
Speaker 1: took the time to write well, like then you know,
Speaker 1: it would be a totally different thing. But I think
Speaker 1: that she has bluffed her way, using a lot of
Speaker 1: different attributes to a point where people assumed she was
Speaker 1: a brilliant writer, and the evidence points to the contrary.
Speaker 1: And it seems like as other people have pointed out
Speaker 1: the real heroes of the story are her editors at
Speaker 1: New York Magazine, who made her writing seem very very good.
Speaker 1: So I'm giving her the biggest bluff.
Speaker 2: Of the year. Her ex fiancee Ryan Liza isn't looking much.
Speaker 1: No, he is a no no, but you.
Speaker 2: Know it's part five of his opus, right, and he's like,
Speaker 2: I came to New York for twenty four hours trying
Speaker 2: resolve situation, and I wound up in this hotel with
Speaker 2: her for five days. It's like brow that you did
Speaker 2: she forcibly forcibly abduct you?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: And like ill anyway, that whole thing, that whole nexus
Speaker 2: of events. I you know, yeah, And of course RFK
Speaker 2: isn't messed up in this. I don't know. I don't know, Maria, yep, I.
Speaker 1: Totally agree with you. I don't know is the correct answer. Anyway,
Speaker 1: Congratulations Olivia, You're getting biggest bluff of the year. So
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know because I don't really make
Speaker 1: bets myself. What do you think do you have most
Speaker 1: plus ev bet and most negative ev bet of the
Speaker 1: year where you just couldn't help yourself.
Speaker 2: Uh, I'm trying to think, you know, in terms of again,
Speaker 2: it's not an election year, so you're kind of not
Speaker 2: making as many bets. I think, uh, you know, look,
Speaker 2: my Nvidio stock has done well. I mean actually, okay,
Speaker 2: so one thing I did is that, like I don't
Speaker 2: know that man angel stocks by my own some when
Speaker 2: I was booking my reservations for Vegas for the Worldsare's
Speaker 2: Poker and realize kind of how much cheaper the hotel
Speaker 2: rooms were. I sold some gaming company stocks. As a
Speaker 2: result of that, I'm like this super viarius for the industry,
Speaker 2: and that's trade's gone well. So I'm going to give
Speaker 2: myself credit for that, and like worst bet of the year.
Speaker 2: I mean, my NFL model really hates the Chicago Bears,
Speaker 2: who are now nine and four, right, so the Bears
Speaker 2: of have I think they're bad, but the Bears have
Speaker 2: cost me a lot of money.
Speaker 1: You're still bearish on the Bears, but you have lost
Speaker 1: a life.
Speaker 2: If I'm like just exhausted at the end of a
Speaker 2: booker tournament, you know, I'll kind of like kind of
Speaker 2: do a little mini punt like I was playing. It
Speaker 2: was randomly in Florida to give a conference and like
Speaker 2: played this five K tournament the last day of their
Speaker 2: WT festival, right was waiting for cashame table opening them
Speaker 2: after I busted out of the five k and played
Speaker 2: a three hundred dollars tournament, right like a bounty tournament.
Speaker 2: I'm like, I really do not feel like like being
Speaker 2: here knitting it up with five big lines when the
Speaker 2: first place is only a couple thousand bucks, right, and
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna win any bounties. And so I know
Speaker 2: I overcalled with ten or jack nine of diamonds versus
Speaker 2: three other players, so I could have gotten a bounty
Speaker 2: from one of them, and I'm like, I have four
Speaker 2: big one. Actually, it's probably fine, It's probably all fine, Yeah,
Speaker 2: but I just want to get out of here. I
Speaker 2: want to go. I haven't eaten been there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, We've all been there. When you get tired at
Speaker 1: the end of a long day, like, decision making quality
Speaker 1: definitely deteriorates, and it takes real mental discipline to like
Speaker 1: stay focused and stay you know, stay with it up
Speaker 1: until the end, and self knowledge to understand when you're
Speaker 1: making suboptimal decisions because of that, because of that kind
Speaker 1: of end of day, Like, I've definitely had situations where
Speaker 1: I've been like, you know what, I just want to
Speaker 1: go to dinner, Like I don't have that many chips,
Speaker 1: and like dinner break is in an hour, but like
Speaker 1: I just want to either spin it or bust so
Speaker 1: that I have a longer dinner. Right, Like I've definitely,
Speaker 1: I've definitely done stuff like that, And I know it's
Speaker 1: not good. Right, That's a horrible, horrible decision. That is
Speaker 1: not how you're supposed to be making decisions. That is
Speaker 1: not how you play poker. But that happens in real
Speaker 1: life too, when sometimes you just like do a fuck
Speaker 1: it decision because you're tired.
Speaker 2: Hang, grey is really bad. I figured it out, right,
Speaker 2: don't try to agree.
Speaker 1: This very bad. Well, that concludes our riskies for the year.
Speaker 1: Congratulations to all of our winners, and our condolences to
Speaker 1: some of our winners, and we will we will maintain
Speaker 1: that even though for now, for now I have the
Speaker 1: Risky Business Poker bracelet, we still have several weeks to go,
Speaker 1: several poker tournaments to play. And you know, it would
Speaker 1: be wonderful, Nate, if we both had really strong ends
Speaker 1: to the year and had to kind of had to
Speaker 1: reconsider how that bracelet is divided.
Speaker 2: That would be a wonderful way to end the year, wouldn't.
Speaker 1: Ever, it really would, it really would. Best of luck
Speaker 1: to both of us. Let's let's go crush at the
Speaker 1: poker tables. Let us know what you think of the show.
Speaker 1: Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm.
Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova.
Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool
Speaker 2: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced
Speaker 2: by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia,
Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our
Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger.
Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us
Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again,
Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad
Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.