1 00:00:15,604 --> 00:00:26,724 Speaker 1: Pushkin. Welcome back to Risky Business, a show about making 2 00:00:26,764 --> 00:00:29,764 Speaker 1: better decisions. I'm Maria Kanakova. 3 00:00:29,364 --> 00:00:32,564 Speaker 2: And I'm Nate Silver. Now today in the show, it 4 00:00:32,684 --> 00:00:38,124 Speaker 2: is the annual edition of the Riskies. 5 00:00:41,724 --> 00:00:41,844 Speaker 1: Use. 6 00:00:41,884 --> 00:00:45,604 Speaker 2: There are awards for the best and worst decisions of 7 00:00:45,644 --> 00:00:49,244 Speaker 2: the year from kind of a gambling slash game, theory, lens, 8 00:00:49,484 --> 00:00:51,204 Speaker 2: a little bit of poker, a little bit of sports, 9 00:00:51,244 --> 00:00:54,244 Speaker 2: a little bit of politics, just the usual Nate Emeria tactics. Marie, 10 00:00:54,284 --> 00:00:55,284 Speaker 2: are you are you excited? 11 00:00:55,684 --> 00:00:59,804 Speaker 1: I am excited, Nate. I love handing out awards, especially 12 00:00:59,844 --> 00:01:03,284 Speaker 1: for bad decision making. And there have been a lot 13 00:01:03,324 --> 00:01:04,764 Speaker 1: of bad decisions this year. 14 00:01:05,284 --> 00:01:08,404 Speaker 2: A record number. I mean, it's a world accelerates. Were 15 00:01:08,404 --> 00:01:10,804 Speaker 2: the more than bad decisions last year? I don't know, 16 00:01:11,684 --> 00:01:12,164 Speaker 2: I don't know. 17 00:01:12,484 --> 00:01:15,284 Speaker 1: We've we've had some pretty bad decision years. But yeah, 18 00:01:15,364 --> 00:01:17,924 Speaker 1: let's let's get into the risk case and we can 19 00:01:18,044 --> 00:01:20,884 Speaker 1: we can maybe our listeners can compare to last year 20 00:01:20,924 --> 00:01:22,284 Speaker 1: to see which year was worse. 21 00:01:24,084 --> 00:01:26,204 Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I mean, we have we have a new president. 22 00:01:26,244 --> 00:01:28,444 Speaker 2: It feels like Trump's the president forever, right, But like 23 00:01:28,924 --> 00:01:33,804 Speaker 2: when the year began, Joseph Robinette Biden was president. 24 00:01:34,124 --> 00:01:36,804 Speaker 1: Then why is it so funny. Speaking of humor, why 25 00:01:36,804 --> 00:01:38,604 Speaker 1: is it so funny when you say his middle name? 26 00:01:39,204 --> 00:01:41,164 Speaker 2: I don't know, Robinette. What the fuck is that you know? 27 00:01:41,204 --> 00:01:47,044 Speaker 2: Is that some Delaware? Are we sure Delaware is real? 28 00:01:47,244 --> 00:01:49,124 Speaker 2: Have you ever been to Delaware? 29 00:01:49,204 --> 00:01:50,844 Speaker 1: Are you sure birds are real? Name? 30 00:01:51,764 --> 00:02:00,084 Speaker 2: I'm birds more than Delaware, probably probably oh point three 31 00:02:00,124 --> 00:02:01,564 Speaker 2: percent of our listeners are in Delaware. We don't mean 32 00:02:01,604 --> 00:02:03,844 Speaker 2: to insult you. We know it's a beautiful I've been. 33 00:02:03,724 --> 00:02:06,404 Speaker 1: To Delaware on the train. Usually, pass. 34 00:02:08,764 --> 00:02:12,924 Speaker 2: On a train doesn't count. You have to like, uh, sleep, 35 00:02:14,044 --> 00:02:17,804 Speaker 2: eat or pee somewhere birth to count. That is having 36 00:02:17,884 --> 00:02:18,684 Speaker 2: visited estate. 37 00:02:19,364 --> 00:02:21,924 Speaker 1: Wait wait, wait, wait, hold on. Peeing in a state 38 00:02:22,004 --> 00:02:23,724 Speaker 1: counts as visiting. So like if I get off the 39 00:02:23,804 --> 00:02:26,764 Speaker 1: highway and use the rest area, it counts as having visited. 40 00:02:27,524 --> 00:02:29,564 Speaker 2: Correct, fascinating. 41 00:02:30,084 --> 00:02:30,804 Speaker 1: Those are the rules. 42 00:02:30,844 --> 00:02:32,124 Speaker 2: Okay, okay, those are the rules. 43 00:02:32,164 --> 00:02:35,324 Speaker 1: Those are the rules. Fine, excellent. I don't know if 44 00:02:35,364 --> 00:02:38,204 Speaker 1: I've ever been to Delaware. I passed through on a train. 45 00:02:39,044 --> 00:02:41,804 Speaker 1: I've probably peed on the train in Delaware. 46 00:02:43,204 --> 00:02:46,724 Speaker 2: No, No, the train. You have to leave the security perimeter, Maria, Like, 47 00:02:46,764 --> 00:02:48,644 Speaker 2: it's a little bit if you go outside and like 48 00:02:48,684 --> 00:02:52,764 Speaker 2: take like a stretch break or or a smoke break 49 00:02:52,844 --> 00:02:55,844 Speaker 2: or a bathroom break at the station in Wilmington. I 50 00:02:55,844 --> 00:02:58,124 Speaker 2: think that counts, but like I don't. You have to 51 00:02:58,204 --> 00:03:01,364 Speaker 2: leave the actual train, all right. 52 00:03:01,524 --> 00:03:04,284 Speaker 1: So let's get on with the year in the rear 53 00:03:04,364 --> 00:03:09,684 Speaker 1: view mirror and the Risky Awards. So our first ward 54 00:03:09,724 --> 00:03:11,724 Speaker 1: goes to the hero call of the Year, which is 55 00:03:11,764 --> 00:03:13,964 Speaker 1: a decision that looked crazy at the time but turned 56 00:03:14,004 --> 00:03:17,044 Speaker 1: out to be absolutely brilliant. And I felt myself coming 57 00:03:17,124 --> 00:03:18,284 Speaker 1: up short. I was like, there were a lot of 58 00:03:18,364 --> 00:03:21,244 Speaker 1: shit decisions and decisions that looked bad at the time 59 00:03:21,284 --> 00:03:24,524 Speaker 1: and ended up being bad. What's something that you think 60 00:03:24,724 --> 00:03:27,524 Speaker 1: is something that looked crazy and turned out to be 61 00:03:27,564 --> 00:03:28,524 Speaker 1: absolutely brilliant. 62 00:03:28,844 --> 00:03:31,724 Speaker 2: I guess Zoron Mumdanni choosing to run for mayor, and you, 63 00:03:31,924 --> 00:03:33,204 Speaker 2: I mean, it didn't seem crazy. 64 00:03:33,524 --> 00:03:34,964 Speaker 1: It didn't seem crazy. That's the thing. 65 00:03:35,044 --> 00:03:36,644 Speaker 2: I thought, what you going to do? 66 00:03:36,844 --> 00:03:39,124 Speaker 1: I had Mom Donnie with a question mark because like 67 00:03:39,244 --> 00:03:41,564 Speaker 1: Mum Donnie fits into it. We definitely need to give 68 00:03:41,644 --> 00:03:44,604 Speaker 1: Zoron Mum Donnie an award for the risk case. But 69 00:03:44,764 --> 00:03:46,404 Speaker 1: maybe it is hero call of the year. Maybe the 70 00:03:46,444 --> 00:03:50,244 Speaker 1: people who supported Zoron very early on are the hero 71 00:03:50,364 --> 00:03:50,964 Speaker 1: call of the year. 72 00:03:52,204 --> 00:03:54,324 Speaker 2: I mean, I guess all the people who sucked up 73 00:03:54,324 --> 00:03:56,924 Speaker 2: to Trump and then got pardoned. You gotta, you know, 74 00:03:57,564 --> 00:04:00,804 Speaker 2: give credit whords to George Sentos for example. I don't know, 75 00:04:01,764 --> 00:04:03,084 Speaker 2: but I guess it didn't seem crazy. 76 00:04:03,124 --> 00:04:06,404 Speaker 1: It it does seem crazy. So, yeah, hero call like 77 00:04:06,924 --> 00:04:09,724 Speaker 1: something where you're you know, it's it's a hero call 78 00:04:10,244 --> 00:04:12,644 Speaker 1: for poker players out there. You know what a hero 79 00:04:12,764 --> 00:04:15,444 Speaker 1: call is. It's not you're holding aces and you end 80 00:04:15,524 --> 00:04:18,324 Speaker 1: up calling top set. It's you know, you're calling with 81 00:04:18,444 --> 00:04:21,964 Speaker 1: ace high on a you know, on an incredibly wet board. 82 00:04:22,244 --> 00:04:25,564 Speaker 1: Seems crazy, but it turns out to be brilliant. Or 83 00:04:25,604 --> 00:04:28,404 Speaker 1: you're calling with jack hi or ten high because you 84 00:04:28,444 --> 00:04:31,084 Speaker 1: think that the person has a busted straight draw and 85 00:04:31,164 --> 00:04:34,644 Speaker 1: has five high and uh, yeah, that's the hero call 86 00:04:34,644 --> 00:04:37,844 Speaker 1: of the year. Well we'll put mom Donnie there kind 87 00:04:37,844 --> 00:04:43,004 Speaker 1: of in yeah with a question mark, because I think 88 00:04:43,044 --> 00:04:46,284 Speaker 1: that at the beginning of the campaign, when he did 89 00:04:46,324 --> 00:04:49,524 Speaker 1: decide to run, like, the odds really did not look 90 00:04:49,564 --> 00:04:52,764 Speaker 1: good for him. Nate, do you happen to remember what 91 00:04:52,884 --> 00:04:56,044 Speaker 1: the prediction markets and just what the polls were saying. 92 00:04:56,084 --> 00:04:58,684 Speaker 2: I'm sure you start. I'm sure he was at one 93 00:04:58,724 --> 00:04:59,924 Speaker 2: percent or whatever. 94 00:05:00,044 --> 00:05:03,524 Speaker 1: Yeah, right, he was like a incredible underdog right at 95 00:05:03,564 --> 00:05:07,644 Speaker 1: the beginning. Yeah, all right, well let's try number two. 96 00:05:08,044 --> 00:05:12,484 Speaker 1: The worst fold, the decision that left everyone wondering why 97 00:05:12,884 --> 00:05:15,244 Speaker 1: walk away from such a sure thing? 98 00:05:16,604 --> 00:05:20,444 Speaker 2: I mean, quite obviously if you're a sports fan. The 99 00:05:20,524 --> 00:05:24,524 Speaker 2: Luca Dontch trade was this year, and it was still 100 00:05:24,604 --> 00:05:29,564 Speaker 2: the most inexplicable trade in sports history. Lucas averaging thirty 101 00:05:29,564 --> 00:05:32,124 Speaker 2: five points a game, nine rebounds, nine assists this year, 102 00:05:32,164 --> 00:05:35,924 Speaker 2: shooting forty seven percent on field goals, Dallas trade him 103 00:05:35,924 --> 00:05:39,764 Speaker 2: for the perpetually injured Anthony Davis. They did back into 104 00:05:39,764 --> 00:05:42,684 Speaker 2: getting number one overall pick Cooper Fly due to a 105 00:05:42,724 --> 00:05:46,484 Speaker 2: stroke of luck. Nevertheless, general manager Nico Harrison was recently 106 00:05:46,644 --> 00:05:49,444 Speaker 2: fired from the team. Yeah, this was like the still 107 00:05:49,484 --> 00:05:52,524 Speaker 2: the weirdest trade in sports history. I was at this 108 00:05:52,604 --> 00:05:58,044 Speaker 2: random little poker tournament in Maryland quite late. My phone 109 00:05:58,084 --> 00:06:00,444 Speaker 2: was dead. When it scrolled across the ESPN bottom line, 110 00:06:00,484 --> 00:06:03,404 Speaker 2: I like literally thought I was having like a stroke 111 00:06:03,484 --> 00:06:06,084 Speaker 2: or hallucinating. I'm like, why the fuck would you trade 112 00:06:06,124 --> 00:06:08,764 Speaker 2: Luca for Anthony Davis? But it was real. I mean, 113 00:06:08,764 --> 00:06:10,964 Speaker 2: it has to be like the winner here. 114 00:06:11,564 --> 00:06:14,244 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's I mean, I think that for sports fans, 115 00:06:14,284 --> 00:06:17,404 Speaker 1: that's definitely the winner. And I actually remember doing this 116 00:06:17,484 --> 00:06:21,004 Speaker 1: podcast episode with you and reading about this, and as 117 00:06:21,044 --> 00:06:22,884 Speaker 1: a non sports fan, I was like, wait, what in 118 00:06:22,924 --> 00:06:26,164 Speaker 1: the world is going on? This is very weird. So 119 00:06:26,284 --> 00:06:30,444 Speaker 1: I had a different one for worst fold. I had 120 00:06:30,724 --> 00:06:36,324 Speaker 1: the Democrats in the government shutdown folding and deciding to 121 00:06:36,364 --> 00:06:39,204 Speaker 1: avoid that. I had that as the worst fold of 122 00:06:39,244 --> 00:06:42,804 Speaker 1: the year for the decision that left everyone wondering, what 123 00:06:42,804 --> 00:06:45,084 Speaker 1: the fuck did you just do? Why did we why 124 00:06:45,084 --> 00:06:46,644 Speaker 1: were we even in this pot right? 125 00:06:46,764 --> 00:06:46,844 Speaker 2: Like? 126 00:06:46,924 --> 00:06:49,564 Speaker 1: Why did we play this hand to the river? If 127 00:06:49,564 --> 00:06:52,324 Speaker 1: you're going to fold, like, what were you thinking you do? 128 00:06:52,404 --> 00:06:54,684 Speaker 2: The next one is cooler of the year. Cooler if 129 00:06:54,684 --> 00:06:58,524 Speaker 2: you're not familiar, is when when you have a very 130 00:06:58,564 --> 00:07:02,484 Speaker 2: good hand, your opponent has an even better hand and 131 00:07:02,524 --> 00:07:04,564 Speaker 2: there's that much you can do to avoid it. So 132 00:07:04,604 --> 00:07:08,044 Speaker 2: you have packet kings. I have King to Maria as 133 00:07:08,084 --> 00:07:08,804 Speaker 2: pocket aces. 134 00:07:10,324 --> 00:07:12,284 Speaker 1: So for this one, and this one is a little 135 00:07:12,324 --> 00:07:17,484 Speaker 1: bit controversial, but I would put Sam Altman and open Ai, 136 00:07:18,084 --> 00:07:22,324 Speaker 1: who was leading up until very recently, kind of in 137 00:07:22,524 --> 00:07:26,804 Speaker 1: all indicators, and then I've realized there's somewhat of our 138 00:07:26,804 --> 00:07:30,644 Speaker 1: recency bias here, But you know, absolute great hand has 139 00:07:30,684 --> 00:07:35,964 Speaker 1: been like all the best researchers market edge and seems 140 00:07:35,964 --> 00:07:39,604 Speaker 1: to have somehow fallen behind by sticking to kind of 141 00:07:39,644 --> 00:07:44,604 Speaker 1: their you know, their approach and potentially putting a little 142 00:07:44,644 --> 00:07:47,964 Speaker 1: bit too much weight on how do we generate money 143 00:07:48,284 --> 00:07:52,244 Speaker 1: right away with things like Sora et cetera, like basically 144 00:07:53,044 --> 00:07:57,084 Speaker 1: creating slop as opposed to trying to refine models and 145 00:07:58,004 --> 00:08:02,364 Speaker 1: seeing you know, Gemini Claude leapfrog over them in a 146 00:08:02,404 --> 00:08:05,604 Speaker 1: lot of different metrics. So I think that there was 147 00:08:05,644 --> 00:08:07,964 Speaker 1: no reason that had to have happened, because I think 148 00:08:07,964 --> 00:08:11,644 Speaker 1: that open Ai had the biggest resources out of any company. So, 149 00:08:11,684 --> 00:08:13,644 Speaker 1: like I said, maybe this is maybe you don't agree 150 00:08:13,644 --> 00:08:15,564 Speaker 1: with that, but for me, like it seems like they 151 00:08:15,604 --> 00:08:18,924 Speaker 1: had a great hand, but it's right now. They'll probably 152 00:08:18,964 --> 00:08:21,484 Speaker 1: not They're not going to lose in the long term, 153 00:08:21,484 --> 00:08:23,604 Speaker 1: but right now it seems like they're on the back foot. 154 00:08:23,964 --> 00:08:25,724 Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean this is a slightly different spirit of 155 00:08:26,764 --> 00:08:29,404 Speaker 2: cooler in which it's kind of like maybe misplaying a 156 00:08:29,524 --> 00:08:33,644 Speaker 2: very robust situation, right, Yeah, I know. I think the 157 00:08:33,684 --> 00:08:36,204 Speaker 2: smartest people who are observers of AI say that, like 158 00:08:36,284 --> 00:08:39,524 Speaker 2: open Ai has probably lost its lead in the large 159 00:08:39,604 --> 00:08:42,684 Speaker 2: language model category squandered. 160 00:08:42,724 --> 00:08:43,204 Speaker 1: It's lead. 161 00:08:43,884 --> 00:08:47,124 Speaker 2: Like the euation is also going up by three acts 162 00:08:47,164 --> 00:08:48,764 Speaker 2: or five x or something over the course of the year. 163 00:08:48,924 --> 00:08:52,244 Speaker 2: I'm sure Sam Altman is still sleeping well at night. 164 00:08:52,404 --> 00:08:54,244 Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, you know who well, I mean, 165 00:08:55,004 --> 00:08:58,444 Speaker 2: if you want another sports one, Notre Dame missing the 166 00:08:58,484 --> 00:09:01,204 Speaker 2: college football playoff because they think they're special and refuse 167 00:09:01,284 --> 00:09:04,324 Speaker 2: to join a conference. That's maybe a little esoteric Maria, 168 00:09:04,404 --> 00:09:09,364 Speaker 2: but like, but they're they're privileged, a privileged bunch of 169 00:09:09,644 --> 00:09:13,284 Speaker 2: kids who who you know, think they're special and couldn't 170 00:09:13,284 --> 00:09:15,684 Speaker 2: get in line and join a conference and play a 171 00:09:15,724 --> 00:09:18,324 Speaker 2: real schedule. But that's that's you know, not a hearing 172 00:09:18,324 --> 00:09:18,764 Speaker 2: nor there. 173 00:09:19,444 --> 00:09:23,844 Speaker 1: All right, Well, there we have it, so tilt of 174 00:09:23,884 --> 00:09:27,164 Speaker 1: the year, so kind of what's the most emotional decision 175 00:09:27,164 --> 00:09:29,404 Speaker 1: of the year. I've got I've got lots for this one. 176 00:09:29,524 --> 00:09:32,604 Speaker 2: I mean, it feels like we have to mention Elon 177 00:09:32,764 --> 00:09:38,644 Speaker 2: Muskets some point had a fantastic year and you know, 178 00:09:38,804 --> 00:09:43,084 Speaker 2: kind of crashing and burning out of Doge even faster 179 00:09:43,284 --> 00:09:47,044 Speaker 2: than I thought, and I thought it wouldn't last particularly long. Yeah, 180 00:09:47,084 --> 00:09:49,844 Speaker 2: I think I think, you know, I think Elon's got 181 00:09:49,844 --> 00:09:51,004 Speaker 2: to be up there. What do you think. 182 00:09:50,844 --> 00:09:55,484 Speaker 1: We're I was going to give it to RFK, who 183 00:09:55,644 --> 00:09:59,884 Speaker 1: has emotionally, you know, been so I mean, he's doing 184 00:10:00,004 --> 00:10:03,124 Speaker 1: quite well, He's accomplished everything. But I think that he 185 00:10:03,284 --> 00:10:06,644 Speaker 1: is one of the most emotional people that we have seen, 186 00:10:06,764 --> 00:10:12,004 Speaker 1: and his crusade against vaccine, against science in general, against 187 00:10:12,084 --> 00:10:15,324 Speaker 1: NIH funding, against all of that, seems to be very 188 00:10:15,364 --> 00:10:19,644 Speaker 1: emotionally driven, someone who cannot be convinced by any data 189 00:10:19,684 --> 00:10:22,284 Speaker 1: and just has this personal vendetta and feels like everything 190 00:10:22,324 --> 00:10:25,404 Speaker 1: is personal about him, right, Like everything that he says 191 00:10:25,804 --> 00:10:28,044 Speaker 1: he makes it feel like, oh, people are out to 192 00:10:28,084 --> 00:10:31,404 Speaker 1: get me personally, and I am the scapegoat and I 193 00:10:31,444 --> 00:10:34,404 Speaker 1: am going to prove them all wrong. So it seems 194 00:10:34,444 --> 00:10:37,564 Speaker 1: to me like he's the tiltiest person like I would actually, 195 00:10:37,684 --> 00:10:40,724 Speaker 1: you know, I would bet that playing against him at 196 00:10:40,724 --> 00:10:43,564 Speaker 1: the poker table would be an interesting experience. I think 197 00:10:43,604 --> 00:10:46,764 Speaker 1: he's someone who would let he would take everything personally 198 00:10:46,764 --> 00:10:50,364 Speaker 1: and really let the losses go to go to his head. 199 00:10:50,404 --> 00:10:52,964 Speaker 2: Do you think that Trump would be good at poker? Now? 200 00:10:54,484 --> 00:10:57,044 Speaker 1: I don't. We've talked about this before. I think that 201 00:10:57,164 --> 00:11:00,764 Speaker 1: Trump's over confidence and overblown ego would keep him from 202 00:11:00,844 --> 00:11:05,364 Speaker 1: being good at poker, right, he doesn't take negative feedback, 203 00:11:05,404 --> 00:11:07,564 Speaker 1: he would think that he's a lot better than he 204 00:11:07,644 --> 00:11:10,124 Speaker 1: actually is, which is actually idea, like, those are the 205 00:11:10,164 --> 00:11:12,684 Speaker 1: best people to play poker against, the ones who have 206 00:11:12,764 --> 00:11:15,524 Speaker 1: an overblown sense of their own skills, right, because they're 207 00:11:15,524 --> 00:11:18,884 Speaker 1: not going to be taking negative criticism, negative feedback, and 208 00:11:18,924 --> 00:11:21,484 Speaker 1: they're not going to be learning as much, and they're 209 00:11:21,524 --> 00:11:23,804 Speaker 1: going to be the ones who are blaming the cards, 210 00:11:23,844 --> 00:11:27,364 Speaker 1: blaming the deck, you know, blaming everything except their own play. 211 00:11:27,804 --> 00:11:30,644 Speaker 1: And you want that, right, you want someone who is 212 00:11:30,684 --> 00:11:34,284 Speaker 1: incapable of learning from those types of things. Now, he 213 00:11:34,364 --> 00:11:36,444 Speaker 1: would be someone who I think would be very successful 214 00:11:36,444 --> 00:11:39,644 Speaker 1: against knits in the short term because he'd be super aggressive, right, 215 00:11:39,724 --> 00:11:42,484 Speaker 1: he'd be someone who would kind of fight for every pot, 216 00:11:42,564 --> 00:11:45,044 Speaker 1: who would bet big, who would like have all this 217 00:11:45,204 --> 00:11:49,204 Speaker 1: bluster and confidence. And if you don't see through that, 218 00:11:49,804 --> 00:11:52,764 Speaker 1: I think that aggression pays off in the immediate term, 219 00:11:53,084 --> 00:11:55,604 Speaker 1: but in the long term, if you then don't adjust 220 00:11:56,244 --> 00:11:58,644 Speaker 1: and keep that up and you're playing against good players 221 00:11:58,684 --> 00:12:01,364 Speaker 1: who do adjust to you, you're going to go broke. 222 00:12:01,804 --> 00:12:04,444 Speaker 2: Yeah, and poker the better failure mode is aggression, you 223 00:12:04,484 --> 00:12:07,204 Speaker 2: know what I mean? Yeah, you induce mistakes and different 224 00:12:07,244 --> 00:12:10,324 Speaker 2: types of mistakes from your opponents. And you know, I 225 00:12:10,324 --> 00:12:13,244 Speaker 2: think it'd be better than better than Biden. Better than Biden. 226 00:12:14,524 --> 00:12:16,964 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean that's not saying much, but yeah, he 227 00:12:17,084 --> 00:12:23,604 Speaker 1: probably would be better than all right, So let's let's 228 00:12:23,644 --> 00:12:27,404 Speaker 1: go to another good decision. Ish, it doesn't have to 229 00:12:27,444 --> 00:12:30,044 Speaker 1: be good. Actually, it's the GTO call of the year, 230 00:12:30,644 --> 00:12:35,084 Speaker 1: so game theory optimalist call. So the most balanced sound 231 00:12:35,204 --> 00:12:40,444 Speaker 1: decision of the year. What do we got for balanced? 232 00:12:40,724 --> 00:12:44,724 Speaker 2: Well, especially in the NFL in general strategy on fourth 233 00:12:44,724 --> 00:12:48,764 Speaker 2: downs for examples, becoming much more gt O. But i'll 234 00:12:48,884 --> 00:12:52,244 Speaker 2: do a politician when here give it to Gavin Newsome. 235 00:12:52,524 --> 00:12:53,964 Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, that's a good one. 236 00:12:54,244 --> 00:12:58,604 Speaker 2: Not my favorite, not my favorite personality. However, he did 237 00:12:59,404 --> 00:13:02,444 Speaker 2: understand that if Republicans were willing to engage in mid 238 00:13:02,524 --> 00:13:07,764 Speaker 2: decade redistricting in states like Texas, that California should reciprocate. 239 00:13:08,084 --> 00:13:10,124 Speaker 2: It's kind of straight out of like the Prisoner's Alemma. 240 00:13:10,164 --> 00:13:13,244 Speaker 2: And you think aggressive gerrymandering is bad, even think the 241 00:13:13,284 --> 00:13:17,924 Speaker 2: GUP started, You know, you have to respond, and so 242 00:13:18,044 --> 00:13:21,564 Speaker 2: Newsoen did that aggressively and effectively, and so he wins 243 00:13:21,604 --> 00:13:23,044 Speaker 2: this award in my. 244 00:13:23,084 --> 00:13:26,324 Speaker 1: Opinion, Yeah, I think I think that that that's actually 245 00:13:26,524 --> 00:13:30,244 Speaker 1: a very good, very good pick on your side, Nate. 246 00:13:30,644 --> 00:13:32,844 Speaker 1: And it's a breath of fresh air to see someone 247 00:13:32,844 --> 00:13:35,044 Speaker 1: actually make a good political decision. Right, We've had so 248 00:13:35,084 --> 00:13:38,764 Speaker 1: many shitty political decisions this year, and on both sides 249 00:13:38,764 --> 00:13:41,364 Speaker 1: of the aisle, right, like so many people just doing 250 00:13:41,364 --> 00:13:42,804 Speaker 1: things where you're like, what in the world are you 251 00:13:42,844 --> 00:13:46,564 Speaker 1: even thinking? And he did. He did see that opportunity 252 00:13:46,804 --> 00:13:49,444 Speaker 1: and he executed it well. He also was able to 253 00:13:49,484 --> 00:13:52,244 Speaker 1: get the support he needed to pass the measures that 254 00:13:52,284 --> 00:13:55,084 Speaker 1: he needed. He was able to even people who don't 255 00:13:55,204 --> 00:13:57,604 Speaker 1: like him, you know, had to smile at his social 256 00:13:57,644 --> 00:14:01,444 Speaker 1: media kind of his social media team was good at 257 00:14:01,524 --> 00:14:06,164 Speaker 1: mimicking Trump and kind of you know, making making him 258 00:14:06,644 --> 00:14:10,244 Speaker 1: at least for a moment when that social media war. 259 00:14:10,644 --> 00:14:12,724 Speaker 1: So people I think. 260 00:14:12,604 --> 00:14:14,244 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not I'm not sure gonna gi him too 261 00:14:14,284 --> 00:14:16,684 Speaker 2: much credit for that part. But but but he has 262 00:14:16,724 --> 00:14:20,924 Speaker 2: getting ground, and he has getting ground in like prediction 263 00:14:21,004 --> 00:14:24,964 Speaker 2: markets for the nomination race and polls and so you know, look, 264 00:14:25,084 --> 00:14:29,484 Speaker 2: I mean a lot of it is cringe. Unfortunately, cringe 265 00:14:29,524 --> 00:14:32,084 Speaker 2: sometimes works. Cringe. There's a big audience for and you know, 266 00:14:32,684 --> 00:14:39,124 Speaker 2: especially for like older MSNBC watching Democrat. They love the 267 00:14:39,164 --> 00:14:42,804 Speaker 2: fucking Cringe. They love Cringe, and Gavin Newsom is cringe. 268 00:14:43,364 --> 00:14:46,524 Speaker 2: His Twitter account is cringe, and Cringe is winning. 269 00:14:53,004 --> 00:14:54,124 Speaker 1: We'll be back right after this. 270 00:15:03,524 --> 00:15:08,084 Speaker 2: Uh okay. Next, the Danny Kanaman Memorial Cognitive Bias of 271 00:15:08,124 --> 00:15:12,924 Speaker 2: the Year Award, Cognitive Bias Best explains twenty twenty five. 272 00:15:14,284 --> 00:15:19,284 Speaker 1: I am going to say, uh a mix of I mean, 273 00:15:19,364 --> 00:15:25,204 Speaker 1: these are very related of recency bias with historic amnesia 274 00:15:25,244 --> 00:15:29,604 Speaker 1: and general like alliteracy about how things have played out 275 00:15:29,644 --> 00:15:33,124 Speaker 1: in history, where all of the decisions seem to be 276 00:15:33,204 --> 00:15:37,244 Speaker 1: focused on such short term thinking, right, just using like 277 00:15:37,804 --> 00:15:40,924 Speaker 1: who who are we? Like, who am I beating right now? 278 00:15:40,964 --> 00:15:44,444 Speaker 1: Who am I trying to get one over on? Right now? 279 00:15:44,644 --> 00:15:47,604 Speaker 1: Who am I trying to beat today without kind of 280 00:15:47,644 --> 00:15:52,164 Speaker 1: this consideration of weight, Like, there's a lot of history 281 00:15:52,204 --> 00:15:56,004 Speaker 1: here and this is not just the present moment. There 282 00:15:56,044 --> 00:16:00,204 Speaker 1: are you know there there are data points that are 283 00:16:00,244 --> 00:16:03,044 Speaker 1: going to kind of be helpful to me that happened 284 00:16:03,684 --> 00:16:06,044 Speaker 1: way in the past, and I have to be thinking 285 00:16:06,844 --> 00:16:09,804 Speaker 1: into the future as well, you know, things like you 286 00:16:09,844 --> 00:16:14,324 Speaker 1: know tariffs, right, It just seems to just have a 287 00:16:14,364 --> 00:16:17,524 Speaker 1: certain historical amnesia where you know, how did this kind 288 00:16:17,564 --> 00:16:20,604 Speaker 1: of thing play out in the past, but in general, 289 00:16:20,804 --> 00:16:24,284 Speaker 1: just all the decisions seem to be very shortsighted and 290 00:16:24,444 --> 00:16:30,164 Speaker 1: very in the moment focused, without without grounding in how 291 00:16:30,204 --> 00:16:34,844 Speaker 1: does this actually look? What are the implications? What can 292 00:16:34,884 --> 00:16:39,524 Speaker 1: I take from historical lessons so that this decision is 293 00:16:39,564 --> 00:16:43,364 Speaker 1: actually good for the future and not just for the 294 00:16:43,404 --> 00:16:44,084 Speaker 1: present moment. 295 00:16:45,564 --> 00:16:48,364 Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, it's pretty classic for new presidents to come 296 00:16:48,364 --> 00:16:52,284 Speaker 2: in to the Oval Office and overread their men. Date 297 00:16:53,324 --> 00:16:57,404 Speaker 2: Trump being so insistent on tariffs, I mean, even if 298 00:16:57,444 --> 00:17:00,684 Speaker 2: they haven't had quite as much of a negative impact 299 00:17:01,404 --> 00:17:06,284 Speaker 2: as some economists might have predicted. You know, consumers have 300 00:17:06,324 --> 00:17:10,124 Speaker 2: been very gloomy about the economy for ever since Liberation 301 00:17:10,364 --> 00:17:15,364 Speaker 2: Day quote unquote back in April. You know, without this 302 00:17:15,564 --> 00:17:18,764 Speaker 2: investment in AI, it's not clear the economy will be 303 00:17:18,764 --> 00:17:22,084 Speaker 2: growing very much at all. And Trump just won an 304 00:17:22,124 --> 00:17:26,044 Speaker 2: election on inflation. Now one calls it affordability. You know what, 305 00:17:26,564 --> 00:17:28,124 Speaker 2: call it fucking if I've already had this rant on 306 00:17:28,164 --> 00:17:31,724 Speaker 2: the show before. You know, affordability feels too fucking euphemistic 307 00:17:32,124 --> 00:17:34,644 Speaker 2: to me. Call it see a little too highbrow. Call 308 00:17:34,644 --> 00:17:37,124 Speaker 2: it fucking inflation. You win an election on inflation, and 309 00:17:37,124 --> 00:17:38,924 Speaker 2: then you pass a bunch of terror policies that cause 310 00:17:39,204 --> 00:17:43,164 Speaker 2: higher inflation. It seems like some type of some type 311 00:17:43,164 --> 00:17:45,364 Speaker 2: of cognitive bias or deserves to be somewhere in the 312 00:17:45,444 --> 00:17:47,284 Speaker 2: in the negative category of these awards. 313 00:17:47,604 --> 00:17:52,764 Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely absolutely, So let's uh, let's go on to 314 00:17:52,884 --> 00:17:55,484 Speaker 1: our Djen of the Year, which we as of last 315 00:17:55,564 --> 00:18:00,244 Speaker 1: year renamed the Epei Masuhara Award for Djen of the Year. 316 00:18:00,564 --> 00:18:02,644 Speaker 1: We don't have anyone quite on that level, but there 317 00:18:02,644 --> 00:18:04,284 Speaker 1: were a lot of contenders for this one. 318 00:18:04,884 --> 00:18:08,044 Speaker 2: I mean, what about Chauncey Billups, the former head coach 319 00:18:08,044 --> 00:18:09,044 Speaker 2: of the Portland Trail Blazer. 320 00:18:09,084 --> 00:18:12,404 Speaker 1: Oh had Chauncey, I had Terry Rosier, I had all 321 00:18:12,484 --> 00:18:12,804 Speaker 1: all the. 322 00:18:13,404 --> 00:18:13,884 Speaker 2: Yeah, we have. 323 00:18:14,324 --> 00:18:17,484 Speaker 1: I mean we had the indictments, the NBA indictments, So 324 00:18:17,524 --> 00:18:20,444 Speaker 1: you can you can take any of those athletes, coaches, 325 00:18:20,644 --> 00:18:24,244 Speaker 1: like people who were making lots of money and who 326 00:18:24,284 --> 00:18:30,844 Speaker 1: made very very questionable decisions that have jeopardized their. 327 00:18:30,804 --> 00:18:32,844 Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna I'm gonna get with Chauncey. He's 328 00:18:32,884 --> 00:18:35,804 Speaker 2: the most prominent of these figures, right. He is an 329 00:18:35,844 --> 00:18:38,404 Speaker 2: NBA Hall of Famer, I believe, otherwise known as co 330 00:18:38,404 --> 00:18:41,244 Speaker 2: Conspiratory Number eight. I believe or I forget which number 331 00:18:41,284 --> 00:18:44,244 Speaker 2: he was, I'm gonna give I'm gonna give Chauncey the award. 332 00:18:44,444 --> 00:18:47,484 Speaker 1: Okay, that's that makes sense. So I initially gave it 333 00:18:47,524 --> 00:18:50,524 Speaker 1: to Chauncey, and then I thought maybe Terry because Terry 334 00:18:50,564 --> 00:18:54,204 Speaker 1: actually threw games as well, so as far as we know, 335 00:18:54,284 --> 00:18:58,484 Speaker 1: allegedly allegedly through games by letting people bet on like 336 00:18:58,564 --> 00:19:02,804 Speaker 1: different outcomes and then you know, sitting out and uh 337 00:19:03,524 --> 00:19:07,404 Speaker 1: fading injury, et cetera, et cetera. So depending on Yeah, 338 00:19:07,444 --> 00:19:09,404 Speaker 1: but Chauncey Billups is obviously more prominent. 339 00:19:09,564 --> 00:19:12,884 Speaker 2: So yeah, does Michael ms Rahey is her consideration. 340 00:19:12,484 --> 00:19:16,204 Speaker 1: Here for Djen of the Year? Yeah, sure, why not? 341 00:19:16,804 --> 00:19:19,724 Speaker 1: I mean, Michael Misrahi is quite a djen. He won 342 00:19:20,404 --> 00:19:23,484 Speaker 1: the World Series main Event, he won the Players Championship, 343 00:19:23,564 --> 00:19:25,124 Speaker 1: so Djen of the Year could be a good thing. 344 00:19:26,004 --> 00:19:28,364 Speaker 2: There are rumors that he was like out quite late 345 00:19:28,364 --> 00:19:32,964 Speaker 2: at various clubs and anyway, but I think I think 346 00:19:33,044 --> 00:19:35,444 Speaker 2: Chauncey earned this. But in a weaker year that we'd 347 00:19:35,444 --> 00:19:36,844 Speaker 2: have to consider Michael ms Rahi. 348 00:19:37,524 --> 00:19:40,284 Speaker 1: That's that's that's fair. We we had a very robust 349 00:19:40,364 --> 00:19:43,004 Speaker 1: slate of nominees this year. It's like the Oscars when 350 00:19:43,404 --> 00:19:45,684 Speaker 1: you know, the best Picture nominees come out and you're 351 00:19:45,724 --> 00:19:47,884 Speaker 1: like shit, like, how do I choose? 352 00:19:48,084 --> 00:19:48,284 Speaker 2: Right? 353 00:19:49,564 --> 00:19:52,204 Speaker 1: This year, the Dejen of the Year slate was really full. 354 00:19:52,284 --> 00:19:56,124 Speaker 1: We're sorry everyone who didn't get it better? Like next year, 355 00:19:56,324 --> 00:19:59,084 Speaker 1: how about the Knit of the Year? Nate? Who do 356 00:19:59,124 --> 00:20:00,524 Speaker 1: you think was the nidias this year? 357 00:20:01,444 --> 00:20:03,324 Speaker 2: Who is a guy who falled as king at the 358 00:20:03,324 --> 00:20:05,204 Speaker 2: final table? Is that Kenny Hallard is supposed to be 359 00:20:05,244 --> 00:20:10,244 Speaker 2: a great guy, right, but it you couldn't give it 360 00:20:10,284 --> 00:20:13,324 Speaker 2: to You could give it to Chuck Schumer for folding 361 00:20:13,364 --> 00:20:16,164 Speaker 2: on the shutdown. Here's an obscure one, which I find 362 00:20:16,244 --> 00:20:19,444 Speaker 2: kind of funny. Right, So, Brad Lander was the New 363 00:20:19,524 --> 00:20:25,404 Speaker 2: York City compatroller is by some measures, was the most 364 00:20:25,404 --> 00:20:27,804 Speaker 2: broadly liked candy in the New York mayor race, and 365 00:20:27,964 --> 00:20:35,364 Speaker 2: he he basically endorsed Zoran and helped clinch Zoran finishing 366 00:20:35,364 --> 00:20:39,284 Speaker 2: in first place in the in the primary right because 367 00:20:39,324 --> 00:20:40,724 Speaker 2: he thought he was going to get I mean, I'm 368 00:20:40,724 --> 00:20:43,804 Speaker 2: sure he hates Cuomo, which understandable, but he thought he 369 00:20:43,844 --> 00:20:46,604 Speaker 2: was going to get like the deputy mayor's job. And 370 00:20:46,684 --> 00:20:49,764 Speaker 2: Zora was like, nope, sorry, bro, you know I'll endorse 371 00:20:49,844 --> 00:20:52,084 Speaker 2: your campaign for Congress. But like, so that was a 372 00:20:52,124 --> 00:20:54,844 Speaker 2: case where like you make a sacrifice and wind up 373 00:20:54,844 --> 00:20:58,484 Speaker 2: getting getting nothing for it, right, I mean, he got 374 00:20:58,524 --> 00:21:01,084 Speaker 2: lots of kudos on Twitter from Democrats who don't like Cuomo, 375 00:21:01,284 --> 00:21:02,884 Speaker 2: but like that comes to mind a little bit. 376 00:21:04,124 --> 00:21:07,164 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's that's an interesting one. Yeah, I was I 377 00:21:07,204 --> 00:21:09,084 Speaker 1: was going to go with someone like Schumer in line 378 00:21:09,124 --> 00:21:13,364 Speaker 1: with my Democratic shutdown as the worst fold of the year, 379 00:21:14,084 --> 00:21:17,004 Speaker 1: because nance you know, that's the thing. If you're in it, 380 00:21:17,084 --> 00:21:19,644 Speaker 1: you're gonna end up making nitty folds that you should 381 00:21:19,644 --> 00:21:22,244 Speaker 1: not be making. Right, Like, those two things go hand 382 00:21:22,244 --> 00:21:25,044 Speaker 1: in hand. One of the worst things about being in 383 00:21:25,124 --> 00:21:27,764 Speaker 1: it is that you fold hands that you really should 384 00:21:27,764 --> 00:21:31,244 Speaker 1: be calling and you don't put yourself Sure, you can 385 00:21:31,684 --> 00:21:34,084 Speaker 1: protect your chips, but you also don't put yourself in 386 00:21:34,124 --> 00:21:37,564 Speaker 1: a position to win. Right. That kind of strategy ends 387 00:21:37,644 --> 00:21:40,804 Speaker 1: up putting you on the back foot repeatedly. And I 388 00:21:40,844 --> 00:21:42,924 Speaker 1: think that that's kind of what happened here. 389 00:21:43,804 --> 00:21:47,284 Speaker 2: Did you make any bad folds this here, Maria, I 390 00:21:47,324 --> 00:21:47,684 Speaker 2: don't know. 391 00:21:48,884 --> 00:21:53,204 Speaker 1: I well, no, no, in the sense that I wasn't shown. 392 00:21:54,244 --> 00:21:56,764 Speaker 1: I think I'm sure that I made some very bad folds. 393 00:21:57,164 --> 00:21:59,764 Speaker 1: But in order to know whether you made a bad fold. 394 00:21:59,764 --> 00:22:02,644 Speaker 1: The person has to then show you what they had right, 395 00:22:03,244 --> 00:22:06,404 Speaker 1: And if you aren't sure if they were bluffing or not, 396 00:22:06,524 --> 00:22:09,044 Speaker 1: then you don't know if it was a bad fold. 397 00:22:09,564 --> 00:22:11,844 Speaker 1: I'm guessing that I made some really bad folds this year, 398 00:22:12,284 --> 00:22:14,764 Speaker 1: Like if I were betting on it, I would say, 399 00:22:14,844 --> 00:22:17,724 Speaker 1: like over ninety percent certain that I've made some really 400 00:22:17,764 --> 00:22:20,764 Speaker 1: bad folds. But I can't. I didn't have any of 401 00:22:20,804 --> 00:22:23,524 Speaker 1: those situations where someone then showed me in their hand. 402 00:22:23,804 --> 00:22:26,644 Speaker 1: I had situations where they then told me what they had, 403 00:22:26,684 --> 00:22:28,604 Speaker 1: but I don't trust that because I don't trust poker 404 00:22:28,604 --> 00:22:31,364 Speaker 1: players to actually tell me the truth about what they had. 405 00:22:31,484 --> 00:22:34,684 Speaker 1: In a lot of situations poker players life. 406 00:22:34,884 --> 00:22:39,484 Speaker 2: I had one in a home tournament where like this 407 00:22:39,524 --> 00:22:43,004 Speaker 2: woman was quite bad at poker, and I had like 408 00:22:43,444 --> 00:22:44,804 Speaker 2: it was a board with like three of a kind 409 00:22:44,844 --> 00:22:47,724 Speaker 2: on the board. It was like, you know, seven seven seven, 410 00:22:48,804 --> 00:22:53,524 Speaker 2: nine king or something right, And I had like a 411 00:22:53,564 --> 00:22:59,764 Speaker 2: pair of nine full house right, and she battle a 412 00:22:59,804 --> 00:23:03,924 Speaker 2: lot with a pair of sixes right, so underpair to 413 00:23:03,964 --> 00:23:06,964 Speaker 2: the board a weaker full house and I had and 414 00:23:06,964 --> 00:23:09,364 Speaker 2: I just thought, well, okay, is a really tight player. 415 00:23:09,484 --> 00:23:11,044 Speaker 2: But like she didn't actually know, she didn't realize that 416 00:23:11,164 --> 00:23:14,524 Speaker 2: like having a full house was not actually a great 417 00:23:14,564 --> 00:23:16,924 Speaker 2: hand on that board because there's so many better full 418 00:23:16,924 --> 00:23:21,044 Speaker 2: houses or quads. So I folded because I gave her 419 00:23:21,044 --> 00:23:23,044 Speaker 2: too much credit. Basically, that's funny. 420 00:23:23,044 --> 00:23:25,724 Speaker 1: There's a you know, the one of the pivotal poker 421 00:23:25,764 --> 00:23:31,364 Speaker 1: scenes in Molly's Game. You've seen the movie, yes, So 422 00:23:31,404 --> 00:23:34,804 Speaker 1: there's there's a scene where a good player makes a 423 00:23:34,924 --> 00:23:38,924 Speaker 1: huge fold because he doesn't realize that he's playing against 424 00:23:38,964 --> 00:23:41,524 Speaker 1: a bad player. He didn't realize I think that Brad 425 00:23:41,644 --> 00:23:44,044 Speaker 1: was bad and then it ends up and then he'd 426 00:23:44,044 --> 00:23:47,004 Speaker 1: buy mistake flashes one of the cards and he realizes 427 00:23:47,044 --> 00:23:48,884 Speaker 1: that he made a bad fold and it puts him 428 00:23:48,884 --> 00:23:51,884 Speaker 1: on megatilt and he hands up losing tons and tons 429 00:23:51,884 --> 00:23:54,684 Speaker 1: of money. That is sometimes one of the worst things 430 00:23:54,684 --> 00:23:57,684 Speaker 1: that you can do, which is actually an interesting consideration 431 00:23:57,844 --> 00:24:02,884 Speaker 1: for this award. When you aren't capable, when you give 432 00:24:03,044 --> 00:24:06,604 Speaker 1: other people too much credit, sometimes you can you can 433 00:24:06,644 --> 00:24:11,084 Speaker 1: be nittier than you should be. And so that's why 434 00:24:11,244 --> 00:24:14,284 Speaker 1: you know, for good decision making, you really need to 435 00:24:14,284 --> 00:24:17,004 Speaker 1: be accurate in your evaluations, not only of yourself but 436 00:24:17,084 --> 00:24:19,324 Speaker 1: of other people. And that can be really difficult. In 437 00:24:19,364 --> 00:24:21,644 Speaker 1: the absence of data, right, Like, if you don't have 438 00:24:21,844 --> 00:24:25,684 Speaker 1: enough data points, how do you make those determinations? And 439 00:24:25,724 --> 00:24:28,604 Speaker 1: obviously some of it comes from experience, but then you 440 00:24:28,684 --> 00:24:32,324 Speaker 1: fill in the blanks with biases, with you know what 441 00:24:32,844 --> 00:24:35,524 Speaker 1: you're kind of you try to fill in the blanks 442 00:24:35,524 --> 00:24:37,844 Speaker 1: as best you can. Sometimes you write, and sometimes you're 443 00:24:37,844 --> 00:24:40,844 Speaker 1: just absolutely wrong. And sometimes Nate, have you, I mean, 444 00:24:40,884 --> 00:24:43,844 Speaker 1: I'm sure you've been in this situation, both in poker 445 00:24:43,844 --> 00:24:47,124 Speaker 1: and non in poker, I've had situations where I have 446 00:24:47,244 --> 00:24:52,924 Speaker 1: folded huge hands, both literal and metaphorical, because I've read 447 00:24:52,964 --> 00:24:55,964 Speaker 1: the other person as being incredibly strong, and I was 448 00:24:56,044 --> 00:24:58,804 Speaker 1: right in that they thought they were incredibly strong, but 449 00:24:58,844 --> 00:25:01,924 Speaker 1: they actually weren't, so the read was correct, but they 450 00:25:01,964 --> 00:25:06,204 Speaker 1: didn't realize where they were relative to me in that situation. 451 00:25:07,044 --> 00:25:09,244 Speaker 1: And so that's something. 452 00:25:08,884 --> 00:25:11,124 Speaker 2: To where just a narrow piece of actual booker advice 453 00:25:11,124 --> 00:25:14,404 Speaker 2: for listeners, right, because Marie and I both have this 454 00:25:14,524 --> 00:25:19,964 Speaker 2: experience of playing an extremely wide range of game textures, 455 00:25:20,004 --> 00:25:22,284 Speaker 2: from the toughest opponents in the world and high rollers 456 00:25:22,684 --> 00:25:25,324 Speaker 2: to the worship you've ever seen play poker and like 457 00:25:25,444 --> 00:25:28,244 Speaker 2: charity events, right, And when you get in that really 458 00:25:28,284 --> 00:25:32,404 Speaker 2: bad section of the pool. Then you have to give 459 00:25:32,444 --> 00:25:36,564 Speaker 2: some consideration to your absolute hand strength, right like that, 460 00:25:36,724 --> 00:25:40,924 Speaker 2: Yeah I have a flush. There may be better flushes 461 00:25:40,924 --> 00:25:42,764 Speaker 2: and full houses on the board. But like, but the 462 00:25:42,764 --> 00:25:44,964 Speaker 2: fact is, disapponent might think top pair is good hand. 463 00:25:44,964 --> 00:25:46,524 Speaker 2: They don't know how to read the relative strength of 464 00:25:46,564 --> 00:25:50,324 Speaker 2: hands and so you know, so yeah, don't don't fold 465 00:25:51,484 --> 00:25:56,284 Speaker 2: good hands for cheap against bad opponents who you don't 466 00:25:56,324 --> 00:25:58,604 Speaker 2: have that firm a read on. Yeah right, we really 467 00:25:58,764 --> 00:26:02,804 Speaker 2: and we really stereotype bad players based on you know, 468 00:26:02,844 --> 00:26:05,844 Speaker 2: one or two pieces of information. And yeah, it's just 469 00:26:05,884 --> 00:26:07,364 Speaker 2: a matter of hedging a little bit more. 470 00:26:07,524 --> 00:26:13,324 Speaker 1: Absolutely absolutely staying on the poker. Uh. Note Risky Business bracelet, 471 00:26:13,644 --> 00:26:16,324 Speaker 1: which host was the better poker player this year? I 472 00:26:16,364 --> 00:26:18,644 Speaker 1: have no idea in Nate, I don't actually. 473 00:26:18,604 --> 00:26:21,364 Speaker 2: Well, you won a tournament. Yeah, I think it has 474 00:26:21,524 --> 00:26:25,924 Speaker 2: to be you, right right, I had been, i'd have 475 00:26:25,924 --> 00:26:26,484 Speaker 2: been a World series. 476 00:26:26,964 --> 00:26:28,204 Speaker 1: You had a better World Series than I did. 477 00:26:28,444 --> 00:26:31,684 Speaker 2: I think winning a tournament that Maria. 478 00:26:31,324 --> 00:26:35,164 Speaker 1: Well, I appreciate that night. But but risky business listeners, 479 00:26:35,164 --> 00:26:38,284 Speaker 1: the year is not yet over. We still have a 480 00:26:38,324 --> 00:26:43,004 Speaker 1: few weeks to go. I am in Vegas playing the 481 00:26:43,044 --> 00:26:47,964 Speaker 1: World Poker Tour. Win Championships, and Nate is heading to 482 00:26:48,004 --> 00:26:50,964 Speaker 1: the Bahamas to play in the double Tomorrow. 483 00:26:51,164 --> 00:26:55,124 Speaker 2: I'll be in the Bahamas playing, uh, playing this twenty 484 00:26:55,164 --> 00:26:58,924 Speaker 2: five K, sixty million guaranteed tournament. And it sure is 485 00:26:59,204 --> 00:27:02,884 Speaker 2: gonna be nice, Maria. When I win that tournament, it's 486 00:27:02,884 --> 00:27:04,364 Speaker 2: gonna and that will and that will. 487 00:27:04,444 --> 00:27:07,324 Speaker 1: Actually I'm gonna have to give my Risky Business bracelet 488 00:27:07,364 --> 00:27:09,764 Speaker 1: to you, Nate. I'm gonna have to give it back 489 00:27:10,124 --> 00:27:14,524 Speaker 1: unless unless I win the ten thousand dollars made event 490 00:27:14,564 --> 00:27:16,364 Speaker 1: here at the win, in which case we can just 491 00:27:16,724 --> 00:27:18,364 Speaker 1: agree just to let the bracelet. 492 00:27:18,964 --> 00:27:21,924 Speaker 2: No, I think, I think I think the paradise would 493 00:27:21,924 --> 00:27:24,404 Speaker 2: still it would still away there. It's a sixty million 494 00:27:24,404 --> 00:27:25,284 Speaker 2: guaranteed price. Bool. 495 00:27:25,324 --> 00:27:28,724 Speaker 1: I understand, Nate. But I've already won a tournament this year, 496 00:27:28,924 --> 00:27:30,484 Speaker 1: so I'm just I'm just saying. 497 00:27:30,404 --> 00:27:32,764 Speaker 2: Okay, okay, okay, Marie, that will be. 498 00:27:32,764 --> 00:27:35,484 Speaker 1: That will be putting me into two wins. But well, 499 00:27:35,564 --> 00:27:36,884 Speaker 1: just but but when you win. 500 00:27:37,444 --> 00:27:40,564 Speaker 2: Forward to that problem where we've both won these I know, amazing. 501 00:27:40,204 --> 00:27:42,444 Speaker 1: Bracelets, it's gonna be it's gonna be a great problem 502 00:27:42,444 --> 00:27:44,564 Speaker 1: to have. We're going to have to cut the Risky 503 00:27:44,604 --> 00:27:47,284 Speaker 1: Business bracelet in half. I think in that situation and 504 00:27:47,324 --> 00:27:50,084 Speaker 1: share it. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna take it 505 00:27:50,124 --> 00:27:53,924 Speaker 1: for myself because you you will be worthy of having 506 00:27:53,924 --> 00:27:56,164 Speaker 1: the bracelet as well. Or maybe we get a second one. 507 00:27:56,524 --> 00:27:58,404 Speaker 1: Maybe we uh, you know, go all out on the 508 00:27:58,444 --> 00:28:01,924 Speaker 1: budget and get two bracelets. 509 00:28:03,164 --> 00:28:06,364 Speaker 2: I'm look, I'm looking. I'm looking forward to my new 510 00:28:06,444 --> 00:28:09,204 Speaker 2: vacation home and asking them and to buy with this with. 511 00:28:09,044 --> 00:28:12,324 Speaker 1: This's been interesting. Are you Are you a skier? 512 00:28:13,524 --> 00:28:16,244 Speaker 2: No skiing seems like a terrible idea. I'm not. I'm 513 00:28:16,244 --> 00:28:18,884 Speaker 2: not a knit It just seems like don't people get 514 00:28:18,884 --> 00:28:20,084 Speaker 2: injured all the time when they're skiing. 515 00:28:20,204 --> 00:28:20,444 Speaker 1: They do? 516 00:28:20,724 --> 00:28:24,564 Speaker 2: Yes, Yeah, that seems crazy, Like it's just like and 517 00:28:24,564 --> 00:28:25,884 Speaker 2: when you talk to you, he's like, oh, yeah, I 518 00:28:25,924 --> 00:28:28,164 Speaker 2: broke my broke my colorone one. You know, It's like 519 00:28:28,204 --> 00:28:30,204 Speaker 2: it just seems like a very very very very high 520 00:28:30,684 --> 00:28:31,404 Speaker 2: rate of injury. 521 00:28:31,764 --> 00:28:34,884 Speaker 1: Yes, my family is a family of skiers. And I 522 00:28:34,924 --> 00:28:38,644 Speaker 1: started skiing when I was I think, oh, five years old, 523 00:28:39,524 --> 00:28:44,084 Speaker 1: And I don't really ski much anymore because you know, 524 00:28:44,164 --> 00:28:47,364 Speaker 1: I don't live near a mountain, and at some point, 525 00:28:47,644 --> 00:28:50,644 Speaker 1: like after college, I just kind of stopped skiing. Everyone 526 00:28:50,684 --> 00:28:53,924 Speaker 1: else in my family continues skiing. I am the only 527 00:28:54,004 --> 00:28:56,324 Speaker 1: person in my family who has not gotten the serious 528 00:28:56,404 --> 00:29:03,604 Speaker 1: injury from skiing. Yeah, because I stopped everyone else broken bones, 529 00:29:03,684 --> 00:29:10,124 Speaker 1: torn acls, concussions, and other traumatic head injuries. Like, you 530 00:29:10,164 --> 00:29:12,884 Speaker 1: don't have to be a knit to be afraid of 531 00:29:12,924 --> 00:29:13,684 Speaker 1: injuring yourself. 532 00:29:16,644 --> 00:29:28,844 Speaker 2: And we'll be right back after this break. All right. 533 00:29:28,924 --> 00:29:34,244 Speaker 1: We've got two awards from the podcast The Town About 534 00:29:34,244 --> 00:29:38,404 Speaker 1: Hollywood that we awarded last year as well. So those 535 00:29:38,444 --> 00:29:40,964 Speaker 1: two are the Mia Coolpa I Was Wrong Award and 536 00:29:41,004 --> 00:29:44,884 Speaker 1: the second Haters I Was Right Award. So what do 537 00:29:45,044 --> 00:29:48,884 Speaker 1: you have for those? Is there anything that you think 538 00:29:48,884 --> 00:29:51,004 Speaker 1: you were wrong about or you were right about? 539 00:29:52,764 --> 00:29:54,404 Speaker 2: Well, you know, I keep track of my sports bets. 540 00:29:54,404 --> 00:29:57,804 Speaker 2: There's lots of individual things that I was wrong about, 541 00:29:57,844 --> 00:30:01,044 Speaker 2: certainly on the sports side. You know. I'm thinking back 542 00:30:01,084 --> 00:30:03,204 Speaker 2: on columns. I mean, I read a column earlier in 543 00:30:03,204 --> 00:30:08,524 Speaker 2: the year about like how the market, like the stock market, 544 00:30:08,564 --> 00:30:12,364 Speaker 2: wouldn't tame Trump or curb his excesses. I think that 545 00:30:12,604 --> 00:30:15,204 Speaker 2: is more wrong than right, because it seems to he 546 00:30:15,244 --> 00:30:18,764 Speaker 2: seems to be upset when like the arrows go down 547 00:30:18,924 --> 00:30:22,724 Speaker 2: in the stock market quite a bit. I don't know, 548 00:30:22,764 --> 00:30:25,524 Speaker 2: I mean, there weren't very many elections this year, which 549 00:30:25,564 --> 00:30:29,964 Speaker 2: produces and oppeticially me to be obnoxiously wrong about things. 550 00:30:30,084 --> 00:30:31,924 Speaker 2: I was almost wrong on the shut town. I thought 551 00:30:31,924 --> 00:30:34,124 Speaker 2: that like this kind of pretense of like shutting the 552 00:30:34,124 --> 00:30:38,044 Speaker 2: government down for for healthcare was not a very good plan, 553 00:30:38,364 --> 00:30:40,364 Speaker 2: right and then and but then lo and behold, after 554 00:30:40,364 --> 00:30:43,644 Speaker 2: a couple of weeks, Trump was threatening people's food stamps, 555 00:30:43,684 --> 00:30:46,964 Speaker 2: said he was becoming much less popular. I'm like, oh boy, 556 00:30:47,004 --> 00:30:48,084 Speaker 2: I'm I have to eat some curl on this one. 557 00:30:48,124 --> 00:30:50,764 Speaker 2: And that's fucking cave. So I guess I was. I 558 00:30:50,804 --> 00:30:53,084 Speaker 2: guess I was right, you know, I you know, for 559 00:30:53,164 --> 00:30:55,244 Speaker 2: the other second haters category, Like there were two or 560 00:30:55,244 --> 00:31:00,724 Speaker 2: three books about what a shitty condition that Biden was him, 561 00:31:00,764 --> 00:31:02,724 Speaker 2: which was a point of emphasis for me last year. 562 00:31:03,204 --> 00:31:05,284 Speaker 2: Of course, you know, I don't think Kamala Harris comes 563 00:31:05,284 --> 00:31:09,044 Speaker 2: across very well on her memoir of the campaign trial either. 564 00:31:09,204 --> 00:31:13,204 Speaker 2: So like the fact these people were fucking idiots, uh 565 00:31:13,244 --> 00:31:15,444 Speaker 2: you know, I don't mean Harris, but like I mean 566 00:31:15,484 --> 00:31:19,764 Speaker 2: the people surrounding Biden and Harris like that that felt 567 00:31:19,884 --> 00:31:21,724 Speaker 2: very validated this year. I guess. 568 00:31:22,004 --> 00:31:25,444 Speaker 1: Yeah. So for I'm going to say for the Mia Colpa, 569 00:31:25,524 --> 00:31:28,204 Speaker 1: I was wrong Award. I think at the beginning of 570 00:31:28,244 --> 00:31:31,084 Speaker 1: the year, I was under selling some of the promises 571 00:31:31,724 --> 00:31:35,604 Speaker 1: of AI in a lot of areas, and I think 572 00:31:36,404 --> 00:31:39,724 Speaker 1: that it has gotten so much better this past year. Like, sure, 573 00:31:39,764 --> 00:31:42,164 Speaker 1: it's still hallucinates and like that that's funny. 574 00:31:42,244 --> 00:31:43,444 Speaker 2: I'm kind of. 575 00:31:43,924 --> 00:31:47,084 Speaker 1: Well, it's because of right, But you and I started 576 00:31:47,124 --> 00:31:48,924 Speaker 1: the year on very different Like you were so much 577 00:31:48,964 --> 00:31:50,964 Speaker 1: more bullish and I was so much more bearish. So 578 00:31:51,004 --> 00:31:53,844 Speaker 1: I think we've probably like we're probably at the same 579 00:31:53,884 --> 00:31:56,244 Speaker 1: point now, Nate. But for me it's an I was 580 00:31:56,284 --> 00:31:59,124 Speaker 1: wrong and for you it was you know, it's one 581 00:31:59,164 --> 00:32:01,284 Speaker 1: of these things where we've both recalibrated with the new 582 00:32:01,364 --> 00:32:04,004 Speaker 1: data and I was like, Okay, you know in some 583 00:32:04,044 --> 00:32:05,844 Speaker 1: of these areas there's a lot of promise that I 584 00:32:05,884 --> 00:32:09,164 Speaker 1: didn't really realize. And you, on the other hand, were 585 00:32:09,444 --> 00:32:13,124 Speaker 1: so optimistic that now you're like, oh, there's You've had 586 00:32:13,164 --> 00:32:15,284 Speaker 1: to calibrate it down, which is kind of funny. So 587 00:32:15,324 --> 00:32:18,524 Speaker 1: I think I think we've met in the middle. The 588 00:32:18,564 --> 00:32:22,564 Speaker 1: second haters I was right, Award. I'm going to say 589 00:32:22,764 --> 00:32:28,244 Speaker 1: that the attack on higher education that was orchestrated by 590 00:32:28,324 --> 00:32:32,084 Speaker 1: you know, Trump and his cronies, a lot of people 591 00:32:32,124 --> 00:32:34,644 Speaker 1: were like, yeah, you know, fuck Harvard, blah blah blah. 592 00:32:34,804 --> 00:32:38,564 Speaker 1: But I think that I were already seeing with the 593 00:32:38,604 --> 00:32:42,444 Speaker 1: cuts and funding and the kind of drain in students 594 00:32:42,484 --> 00:32:45,084 Speaker 1: and all of this, that this is going to really 595 00:32:45,124 --> 00:32:47,564 Speaker 1: really hurt the United States for many, many years to come. 596 00:32:49,004 --> 00:32:51,084 Speaker 1: So I think I was right, what have it. 597 00:32:54,164 --> 00:32:57,244 Speaker 2: You might have to use down? Yeah, they are using 598 00:32:57,284 --> 00:33:01,884 Speaker 2: it good. Good, No, like it is bad. But like 599 00:33:02,244 --> 00:33:05,764 Speaker 2: all the things Trump has done, I think higher education, 600 00:33:06,084 --> 00:33:08,964 Speaker 2: elite higher education. I'm a big fan of state schools. Right, 601 00:33:09,644 --> 00:33:11,844 Speaker 2: there's some schools like my I'm a minor university to 602 00:33:11,924 --> 00:33:14,604 Speaker 2: set up more for a free speech. Yeah, I'm I agree, 603 00:33:14,644 --> 00:33:18,044 Speaker 2: it's objectively bad. I'm not very sympathetic. 604 00:33:18,644 --> 00:33:21,804 Speaker 1: Yeah, but I think that you know, curbing cancer research 605 00:33:21,804 --> 00:33:24,244 Speaker 1: and all the things that these schools spread do it 606 00:33:24,924 --> 00:33:25,604 Speaker 1: is really bad. 607 00:33:26,924 --> 00:33:29,004 Speaker 2: By the way, we have not because this did happen 608 00:33:29,044 --> 00:33:32,524 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five, right, all these Republicans who confirmed 609 00:33:34,484 --> 00:33:37,764 Speaker 2: RFK Junior and Pete Hegseth, right, like, I mean. 610 00:33:37,884 --> 00:33:43,524 Speaker 3: You know, yeah, talk about some fucking have some fucking spine, right, Like, 611 00:33:43,724 --> 00:33:46,324 Speaker 3: those are very very powerful positions that will have you know, 612 00:33:47,044 --> 00:33:48,284 Speaker 3: impacts for years to come. 613 00:33:48,404 --> 00:33:51,924 Speaker 2: And so they deserve maybe Need of the Year. Right, 614 00:33:53,284 --> 00:33:55,884 Speaker 2: if I had brad Lander in there for an obscure endorsement, 615 00:33:56,164 --> 00:33:59,044 Speaker 2: I rescind that award brad Lander, and I give it 616 00:33:59,084 --> 00:34:02,804 Speaker 2: to congressional or Senate Republicans who confirmed. And it's fine. 617 00:34:02,804 --> 00:34:06,404 Speaker 2: You're going to have some partisan, very conservative nominees, right, 618 00:34:06,404 --> 00:34:08,764 Speaker 2: but p exth that r FFK Junior, maybe Tulsa Gabbard, 619 00:34:09,044 --> 00:34:14,764 Speaker 2: you know those three man up show some spine and voting. 620 00:34:14,764 --> 00:34:17,164 Speaker 2: A guess these people that are are are not qualified for. 621 00:34:17,164 --> 00:34:21,684 Speaker 1: Their yes, absolutely absolutely all right. So now we've got 622 00:34:21,724 --> 00:34:25,884 Speaker 1: two awards that only one of us gives. So we're 623 00:34:25,884 --> 00:34:29,004 Speaker 1: going to have the Nate Silver Award for Riverian of 624 00:34:29,044 --> 00:34:31,724 Speaker 1: the Year. So, Nate, who are you going to award 625 00:34:32,164 --> 00:34:33,444 Speaker 1: the Riverian of the Year. 626 00:34:33,964 --> 00:34:37,564 Speaker 2: I think since we haven't fitted in elsewhere here, we 627 00:34:37,564 --> 00:34:39,964 Speaker 2: should probably give it to Michael ms Rahi, Right, winning 628 00:34:40,044 --> 00:34:43,644 Speaker 2: both the main event and the Poker Players Championship in 629 00:34:43,644 --> 00:34:46,124 Speaker 2: the same year. You know, it is this kind of 630 00:34:46,124 --> 00:34:50,244 Speaker 2: once in a century type of accomplishment. You know, he 631 00:34:50,284 --> 00:34:55,284 Speaker 2: probably tilts more toward the Djon side of things than 632 00:34:56,204 --> 00:34:58,484 Speaker 2: maybe the pure Riverian side, but like it's a big 633 00:34:58,524 --> 00:35:01,164 Speaker 2: ac contiument in the Poker World, and we often talk 634 00:35:01,244 --> 00:35:03,884 Speaker 2: negatively about poker on the show. It makes a lot 635 00:35:03,884 --> 00:35:06,244 Speaker 2: of negative headlines, right, but that that was a positive 636 00:35:06,244 --> 00:35:07,724 Speaker 2: for the game. He's a very popular player. 637 00:35:08,644 --> 00:35:13,644 Speaker 1: Congratulations mister Msrachi, Congratulations mister Grinder. 638 00:35:16,564 --> 00:35:18,804 Speaker 2: And the Maria kind of Cove Award for the biggest 639 00:35:18,844 --> 00:35:19,564 Speaker 2: bluff of the year. 640 00:35:20,444 --> 00:35:24,244 Speaker 1: I am going to go ahead and hand that to 641 00:35:25,124 --> 00:35:28,484 Speaker 1: the subject of one of our recent Risky Business episodes, 642 00:35:28,524 --> 00:35:33,484 Speaker 1: Olivia NUTSI for convincing people over and over that she's 643 00:35:33,524 --> 00:35:36,764 Speaker 1: a really good writer and a good journalist and getting 644 00:35:36,844 --> 00:35:42,844 Speaker 1: hired over and over despite ethical lapses and frankly, really 645 00:35:42,884 --> 00:35:46,004 Speaker 1: bad writing when she doesn't have a good editor, as 646 00:35:46,004 --> 00:35:51,004 Speaker 1: we discovered in American Canto, and I, you know, she 647 00:35:51,444 --> 00:35:53,404 Speaker 1: It's one of these things where I wanted to give 648 00:35:53,444 --> 00:35:55,964 Speaker 1: her a lot of the awards because like you would 649 00:35:55,964 --> 00:35:58,924 Speaker 1: think that, like if she could actually write well or 650 00:35:58,964 --> 00:36:02,484 Speaker 1: took the time to write well, like then you know, 651 00:36:02,564 --> 00:36:04,564 Speaker 1: it would be a totally different thing. But I think 652 00:36:04,564 --> 00:36:07,244 Speaker 1: that she has bluffed her way, using a lot of 653 00:36:07,244 --> 00:36:11,124 Speaker 1: different attributes to a point where people assumed she was 654 00:36:11,124 --> 00:36:14,604 Speaker 1: a brilliant writer, and the evidence points to the contrary. 655 00:36:14,884 --> 00:36:17,724 Speaker 1: And it seems like as other people have pointed out 656 00:36:17,724 --> 00:36:19,924 Speaker 1: the real heroes of the story are her editors at 657 00:36:19,964 --> 00:36:22,764 Speaker 1: New York Magazine, who made her writing seem very very good. 658 00:36:23,284 --> 00:36:25,284 Speaker 1: So I'm giving her the biggest bluff. 659 00:36:25,004 --> 00:36:28,764 Speaker 2: Of the year. Her ex fiancee Ryan Liza isn't looking much. 660 00:36:29,564 --> 00:36:31,524 Speaker 1: No, he is a no no, but you. 661 00:36:31,564 --> 00:36:35,684 Speaker 2: Know it's part five of his opus, right, and he's like, 662 00:36:35,764 --> 00:36:38,124 Speaker 2: I came to New York for twenty four hours trying 663 00:36:38,164 --> 00:36:40,804 Speaker 2: resolve situation, and I wound up in this hotel with 664 00:36:40,844 --> 00:36:43,604 Speaker 2: her for five days. It's like brow that you did 665 00:36:43,644 --> 00:36:45,884 Speaker 2: she forcibly forcibly abduct you? 666 00:36:46,164 --> 00:36:46,364 Speaker 1: Right? 667 00:36:47,204 --> 00:36:50,644 Speaker 2: And like ill anyway, that whole thing, that whole nexus 668 00:36:50,644 --> 00:36:53,324 Speaker 2: of events. I you know, yeah, And of course RFK 669 00:36:53,484 --> 00:36:57,164 Speaker 2: isn't messed up in this. I don't know. I don't know, Maria, yep, I. 670 00:36:57,484 --> 00:37:00,604 Speaker 1: Totally agree with you. I don't know is the correct answer. Anyway, 671 00:37:00,644 --> 00:37:04,844 Speaker 1: Congratulations Olivia, You're getting biggest bluff of the year. So 672 00:37:05,484 --> 00:37:08,044 Speaker 1: I don't I don't know because I don't really make 673 00:37:08,244 --> 00:37:11,804 Speaker 1: bets myself. What do you think do you have most 674 00:37:11,804 --> 00:37:15,084 Speaker 1: plus ev bet and most negative ev bet of the 675 00:37:15,164 --> 00:37:16,804 Speaker 1: year where you just couldn't help yourself. 676 00:37:17,444 --> 00:37:23,004 Speaker 2: Uh, I'm trying to think, you know, in terms of again, 677 00:37:23,164 --> 00:37:24,644 Speaker 2: it's not an election year, so you're kind of not 678 00:37:24,684 --> 00:37:30,364 Speaker 2: making as many bets. I think, uh, you know, look, 679 00:37:30,404 --> 00:37:34,644 Speaker 2: my Nvidio stock has done well. I mean actually, okay, 680 00:37:34,644 --> 00:37:36,444 Speaker 2: so one thing I did is that, like I don't 681 00:37:36,484 --> 00:37:38,444 Speaker 2: know that man angel stocks by my own some when 682 00:37:38,484 --> 00:37:45,204 Speaker 2: I was booking my reservations for Vegas for the Worldsare's 683 00:37:45,204 --> 00:37:48,644 Speaker 2: Poker and realize kind of how much cheaper the hotel 684 00:37:48,764 --> 00:37:53,604 Speaker 2: rooms were. I sold some gaming company stocks. As a 685 00:37:53,604 --> 00:37:56,084 Speaker 2: result of that, I'm like this super viarius for the industry, 686 00:37:56,164 --> 00:37:58,564 Speaker 2: and that's trade's gone well. So I'm going to give 687 00:37:58,604 --> 00:38:03,004 Speaker 2: myself credit for that, and like worst bet of the year. 688 00:38:03,124 --> 00:38:06,324 Speaker 2: I mean, my NFL model really hates the Chicago Bears, 689 00:38:06,364 --> 00:38:08,484 Speaker 2: who are now nine and four, right, so the Bears 690 00:38:08,484 --> 00:38:10,884 Speaker 2: of have I think they're bad, but the Bears have 691 00:38:10,924 --> 00:38:12,364 Speaker 2: cost me a lot of money. 692 00:38:13,244 --> 00:38:15,404 Speaker 1: You're still bearish on the Bears, but you have lost 693 00:38:15,444 --> 00:38:15,684 Speaker 1: a life. 694 00:38:16,004 --> 00:38:17,524 Speaker 2: If I'm like just exhausted at the end of a 695 00:38:17,524 --> 00:38:20,844 Speaker 2: booker tournament, you know, I'll kind of like kind of 696 00:38:20,884 --> 00:38:23,884 Speaker 2: do a little mini punt like I was playing. It 697 00:38:23,964 --> 00:38:26,564 Speaker 2: was randomly in Florida to give a conference and like 698 00:38:26,644 --> 00:38:30,884 Speaker 2: played this five K tournament the last day of their 699 00:38:30,924 --> 00:38:34,764 Speaker 2: WT festival, right was waiting for cashame table opening them 700 00:38:34,804 --> 00:38:36,724 Speaker 2: after I busted out of the five k and played 701 00:38:36,724 --> 00:38:39,524 Speaker 2: a three hundred dollars tournament, right like a bounty tournament. 702 00:38:39,564 --> 00:38:44,684 Speaker 2: I'm like, I really do not feel like like being 703 00:38:44,724 --> 00:38:46,924 Speaker 2: here knitting it up with five big lines when the 704 00:38:46,964 --> 00:38:48,964 Speaker 2: first place is only a couple thousand bucks, right, and 705 00:38:49,004 --> 00:38:51,444 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna win any bounties. And so I know 706 00:38:51,604 --> 00:38:57,644 Speaker 2: I overcalled with ten or jack nine of diamonds versus 707 00:38:57,644 --> 00:38:59,284 Speaker 2: three other players, so I could have gotten a bounty 708 00:38:59,284 --> 00:39:01,284 Speaker 2: from one of them, and I'm like, I have four 709 00:39:01,284 --> 00:39:04,724 Speaker 2: big one. Actually, it's probably fine, It's probably all fine, Yeah, 710 00:39:05,484 --> 00:39:07,284 Speaker 2: but I just want to get out of here. I 711 00:39:07,364 --> 00:39:09,804 Speaker 2: want to go. I haven't eaten been there. 712 00:39:10,644 --> 00:39:14,924 Speaker 1: Yeah, We've all been there. When you get tired at 713 00:39:14,924 --> 00:39:17,644 Speaker 1: the end of a long day, like, decision making quality 714 00:39:17,724 --> 00:39:21,484 Speaker 1: definitely deteriorates, and it takes real mental discipline to like 715 00:39:21,524 --> 00:39:24,324 Speaker 1: stay focused and stay you know, stay with it up 716 00:39:24,404 --> 00:39:30,364 Speaker 1: until the end, and self knowledge to understand when you're 717 00:39:30,404 --> 00:39:34,444 Speaker 1: making suboptimal decisions because of that, because of that kind 718 00:39:34,484 --> 00:39:38,684 Speaker 1: of end of day, Like, I've definitely had situations where 719 00:39:38,724 --> 00:39:40,764 Speaker 1: I've been like, you know what, I just want to 720 00:39:40,804 --> 00:39:43,084 Speaker 1: go to dinner, Like I don't have that many chips, 721 00:39:43,284 --> 00:39:45,964 Speaker 1: and like dinner break is in an hour, but like 722 00:39:46,004 --> 00:39:48,404 Speaker 1: I just want to either spin it or bust so 723 00:39:48,444 --> 00:39:51,364 Speaker 1: that I have a longer dinner. Right, Like I've definitely, 724 00:39:51,484 --> 00:39:53,804 Speaker 1: I've definitely done stuff like that, And I know it's 725 00:39:53,844 --> 00:39:56,644 Speaker 1: not good. Right, That's a horrible, horrible decision. That is 726 00:39:56,684 --> 00:39:58,604 Speaker 1: not how you're supposed to be making decisions. That is 727 00:39:58,644 --> 00:40:01,324 Speaker 1: not how you play poker. But that happens in real 728 00:40:01,364 --> 00:40:05,044 Speaker 1: life too, when sometimes you just like do a fuck 729 00:40:05,084 --> 00:40:07,124 Speaker 1: it decision because you're tired. 730 00:40:08,164 --> 00:40:10,284 Speaker 2: Hang, grey is really bad. I figured it out, right, 731 00:40:10,284 --> 00:40:11,444 Speaker 2: don't try to agree. 732 00:40:11,164 --> 00:40:17,604 Speaker 1: This very bad. Well, that concludes our riskies for the year. 733 00:40:18,044 --> 00:40:22,804 Speaker 1: Congratulations to all of our winners, and our condolences to 734 00:40:22,844 --> 00:40:26,004 Speaker 1: some of our winners, and we will we will maintain 735 00:40:26,084 --> 00:40:27,964 Speaker 1: that even though for now, for now I have the 736 00:40:28,044 --> 00:40:31,844 Speaker 1: Risky Business Poker bracelet, we still have several weeks to go, 737 00:40:32,524 --> 00:40:35,724 Speaker 1: several poker tournaments to play. And you know, it would 738 00:40:35,764 --> 00:40:39,044 Speaker 1: be wonderful, Nate, if we both had really strong ends 739 00:40:39,044 --> 00:40:42,044 Speaker 1: to the year and had to kind of had to 740 00:40:42,124 --> 00:40:44,244 Speaker 1: reconsider how that bracelet is divided. 741 00:40:45,404 --> 00:40:47,484 Speaker 2: That would be a wonderful way to end the year, wouldn't. 742 00:40:47,164 --> 00:40:50,084 Speaker 1: Ever, it really would, it really would. Best of luck 743 00:40:50,124 --> 00:40:52,684 Speaker 1: to both of us. Let's let's go crush at the 744 00:40:52,684 --> 00:41:02,004 Speaker 1: poker tables. Let us know what you think of the show. 745 00:41:02,204 --> 00:41:06,284 Speaker 1: Reach out to us at Risky Business at pushkin dot Fm. 746 00:41:06,404 --> 00:41:09,884 Speaker 1: Risky Business is hosted by me Maria Kanakova. 747 00:41:09,164 --> 00:41:11,964 Speaker 2: And by me Nate Silver. The show was a cool 748 00:41:11,964 --> 00:41:15,924 Speaker 2: production of Pushing Industries and iHeartMedia. This episode was produced 749 00:41:15,924 --> 00:41:20,244 Speaker 2: by Isaac Carter. Our associate producer is Sonya gerwit Lydia, 750 00:41:20,404 --> 00:41:23,284 Speaker 2: Jean Kott and Daphne Chen are our editors, and our 751 00:41:23,324 --> 00:41:27,084 Speaker 2: executive producer is Jacob Goldstein. Mixing by Sarah Bruger. 752 00:41:27,684 --> 00:41:29,884 Speaker 1: If you like the show, please rate and review us 753 00:41:29,924 --> 00:41:32,604 Speaker 1: so other people can find us too, But once again, 754 00:41:32,724 --> 00:41:34,564 Speaker 1: only if you like us. We don't want those bad 755 00:41:34,564 --> 00:41:36,764 Speaker 1: reviews out there. Thanks for tuning in.