1
00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:04,560
Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast.

2
00:00:04,720 --> 00:00:06,080
Speaker 2: So you can hear the chatters.

3
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,720
Speaker 1: For the crowd. We have a big chant, a big

4
00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,120
Speaker 1: chance to make it a lot question the Big Bucks

5
00:00:14,280 --> 00:00:23,959
Speaker 1: three punter, Fine a man. Welcome to the Action Network

6
00:00:24,040 --> 00:00:28,440
Speaker 1: podcast Buckets addition for the NBA Finals, brought to you

7
00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,280
Speaker 1: by FanDuel's Sportsbook. My name is Matt Moore. I'm the

8
00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,800
Speaker 1: senior NBA writer the Action Network. We're gonna give you

9
00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:37,600
Speaker 1: with a series preview and best bets as the Miami

10
00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,839
Speaker 1: Heat take on the Denver Nuggets in the NBA Finals,

11
00:00:40,960 --> 00:00:43,760
Speaker 1: We'll hit on Finals MVP, series prices, props, all those

12
00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:46,200
Speaker 1: kinds of angles. Plus we'll talk a little bit about

13
00:00:46,240 --> 00:00:49,239
Speaker 1: Finals MVP as well. To help me do that, I've

14
00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:53,159
Speaker 1: got Ac the Analytics Cap For regular contributor to Buckets,

15
00:00:53,159 --> 00:00:55,400
Speaker 1: you can follow him on Twitter at analytics Capper and

16
00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,680
Speaker 1: Sean Little from MSG Networks you can catch him on

17
00:00:57,720 --> 00:01:01,240
Speaker 1: Twitter at Chicago Flow. For you guys being with me,

18
00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,080
Speaker 1: a reminder of everything we talk about today can be

19
00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:05,840
Speaker 1: found the award winning Action Network app. Best Way. If

20
00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:07,520
Speaker 1: you track your picks, you get up the second information

21
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:09,680
Speaker 1: where the bets and money are coming in all sorts

22
00:01:09,680 --> 00:01:11,559
Speaker 1: of cool stuff there. Make sure to check it out.

23
00:01:11,680 --> 00:01:14,240
Speaker 1: Just download the Action Network app right now if you

24
00:01:14,319 --> 00:01:16,920
Speaker 1: are interested in learning more about the NBA Finals. We

25
00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,720
Speaker 1: have so much content for you at Action Network. Not

26
00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,120
Speaker 1: only do we have great written content, I've got pieces

27
00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,480
Speaker 1: about where I see the series going and working on

28
00:01:24,520 --> 00:01:27,120
Speaker 1: a Rest versus Russ thing. In terms of betting trends,

29
00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:30,120
Speaker 1: we've got pieces up about the most important players in

30
00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,920
Speaker 1: the finals, Brandon Anderson's betting card, all sorts of stuff.

31
00:01:32,920 --> 00:01:34,360
Speaker 1: Just check it out on the Action Network app and

32
00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:38,200
Speaker 1: on Buckets. Our regular NBA betting podcast with episodes Monday

33
00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:41,360
Speaker 1: through Friday. We've got a series preview went along with it,

34
00:01:41,400 --> 00:01:43,760
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson and in depth shows you all the angles.

35
00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,640
Speaker 1: We've got a props episode that's got every possible way

36
00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:48,720
Speaker 1: you can bet this series, because this is a very

37
00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,000
Speaker 1: sharply priced series, so there's a lot of different angles

38
00:01:52,040 --> 00:01:54,000
Speaker 1: you can catch in that one. And we've got our

39
00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:55,880
Speaker 1: Game one Best Bet episode up as well, so make

40
00:01:55,920 --> 00:01:57,720
Speaker 1: sure to check that out with all of our contributors

41
00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,280
Speaker 1: over on Buckets. All right, enough of that, guys, get

42
00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:01,920
Speaker 1: to it. We're gonna go round the table. We're gonna

43
00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:05,840
Speaker 1: get our series best bets for the NBA Finals. You

44
00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,600
Speaker 1: could give finals MVP, you can do a series price,

45
00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:11,320
Speaker 1: whatever you prefer. In this spot, we'll go around the

46
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,360
Speaker 1: table and then we'll give the cap on it. AC

47
00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:16,240
Speaker 1: will start with you. What do you like as the

48
00:02:16,280 --> 00:02:18,160
Speaker 1: Heat take on the Nuggets in the NBA Finals.

49
00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with a couple plus money looks here.

50
00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:23,760
Speaker 2: The first one is the exact games. I'm gonna go

51
00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:27,160
Speaker 2: with six game plus two forty. The reason why I'm

52
00:02:27,160 --> 00:02:30,560
Speaker 2: going with six is the total games five and a

53
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,360
Speaker 2: half is juice to be over, which I like. And

54
00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:37,200
Speaker 2: then the series spread the Nuggets minus war and half

55
00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,359
Speaker 2: is juice, so you know the the part of synergy

56
00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:42,639
Speaker 2: there right there is six games, So I'm gonna go

57
00:02:42,760 --> 00:02:45,760
Speaker 2: with that math. It's very simple there. And then obviously

58
00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:49,720
Speaker 2: the I think the Jokic MVP odds are are amazing

59
00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,000
Speaker 2: because I think if if Denver wins, you're pretty much

60
00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:55,640
Speaker 2: penciled in Jokic being the MVP. Another look I like

61
00:02:55,720 --> 00:02:59,720
Speaker 2: to see is depending on depending on the book you get,

62
00:02:59,760 --> 00:03:03,639
Speaker 2: there's there certain opportunities where you can bet player milestones.

63
00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:08,040
Speaker 2: One is Jokic to record over fifteen assists in the game.

64
00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,560
Speaker 2: That's plus two twenty. I like that because when Denver

65
00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:14,800
Speaker 2: is when they're rolling, it's because Jokic is being that

66
00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:18,200
Speaker 2: playmaker and not really looking to score himself but getting

67
00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:22,239
Speaker 2: other other guys open shots. I like Jokic over fifteen

68
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:24,520
Speaker 2: assists in one game. That's plus two to twenty.

69
00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:26,959
Speaker 1: Great stuff there. We'll come back and dive into that

70
00:03:26,960 --> 00:03:28,720
Speaker 1: a little bit more in a sec. Sean little what

71
00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:30,600
Speaker 1: do you got for me for series bets for Nuggets

72
00:03:30,639 --> 00:03:31,359
Speaker 1: versus Heat?

73
00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:33,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm all over the Denver Nuggets here. It pains

74
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:35,960
Speaker 3: me to say it. I do think. I want to

75
00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:38,800
Speaker 3: say Denver minus one and a half games at minus

76
00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:41,080
Speaker 3: one seventy five. Now, I'm getting a very late number

77
00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:42,640
Speaker 3: that's still out there. I don't want to give out

78
00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,200
Speaker 3: a stale. I got a little shorter than that, but

79
00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:47,280
Speaker 3: I also like it minus two and a half. You're

80
00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:51,760
Speaker 3: seeing still plus one point fifteen around that. At minus

81
00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:53,560
Speaker 3: two and a half for Denver, I think they get

82
00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,040
Speaker 3: it done in five or six games. If the Miami

83
00:03:56,160 --> 00:03:58,280
Speaker 3: Heat continue what they've been doing and push this to

84
00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:02,480
Speaker 3: seven games, I'll have and just take the l lick

85
00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:05,800
Speaker 3: my wounds. This is actually my biggest NBA play of

86
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:09,800
Speaker 3: the season. Denver minus one and a half at I'll

87
00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:11,520
Speaker 3: say the minus one seventy five number.

88
00:04:11,880 --> 00:04:14,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, So we started hitting this early and then the

89
00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:16,599
Speaker 1: market has been We've been in line with the market,

90
00:04:16,800 --> 00:04:18,760
Speaker 1: so like this opened at a book at minus one

91
00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,920
Speaker 1: thirty four and we are like most of action, I think,

92
00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,400
Speaker 1: hit that number when that popped, and then every day

93
00:04:25,520 --> 00:04:29,240
Speaker 1: it's gotten more and more. Recording this on Wednesday afternoon,

94
00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:34,120
Speaker 1: I am hoping, against hope and them running out of hope,

95
00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:38,560
Speaker 1: that we're gonna get a move back on Miami as

96
00:04:38,560 --> 00:04:40,800
Speaker 1: we get closer to Game one, both on the series

97
00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,360
Speaker 1: and in Game one, because the Game one money will

98
00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:47,839
Speaker 1: influence that get that those subsequent derivative markets as well.

99
00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:52,120
Speaker 1: I'm hoping for that. Usually the sharps come in early

100
00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:53,920
Speaker 1: and they come in late, so I'm hoping that we're

101
00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,480
Speaker 1: gonna get a late movement push here. That's where I'm

102
00:04:56,520 --> 00:04:58,279
Speaker 1: going to get the minus two and a half. My

103
00:04:58,320 --> 00:04:59,720
Speaker 1: best bet will be minus one and a half on

104
00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:04,200
Speaker 1: the n as well. I've grown surprisingly more confident. Usually

105
00:05:04,240 --> 00:05:05,880
Speaker 1: I come out and I do the analysis and I

106
00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:07,800
Speaker 1: make the bet, and then I spend the rest of

107
00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:09,880
Speaker 1: the time before a series starts being like, oh God,

108
00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,840
Speaker 1: what have I done? Oh god, Oh god, how I'm

109
00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:15,960
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler is gonna score fifty a game? Oh god,

110
00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:19,120
Speaker 1: Cale Martin's gonna shoot fifty percent from three again? And

111
00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:21,960
Speaker 1: I just I've talked to as many smart people as

112
00:05:21,960 --> 00:05:24,800
Speaker 1: I can find, both in the league and analytics departments

113
00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:31,240
Speaker 1: at fellow media team, sources, betting sources, everybody. It's just

114
00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:33,679
Speaker 1: very hard to find. If you're taking the Miami Heat,

115
00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:38,080
Speaker 1: it is not entirely a faith based play, but you

116
00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:42,040
Speaker 1: are definitely banking on not just the obviously by the

117
00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:47,400
Speaker 1: market statistically unlikely outcome. But I can't tell you, like, look, yeah,

118
00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,600
Speaker 1: the Nuggets are better, but there are matchups here that

119
00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:53,880
Speaker 1: really favor the Heat. I can't find them. Their offense

120
00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:58,880
Speaker 1: is better in terms of execution, then the Nuggets have

121
00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,800
Speaker 1: maybe faced The Wolves were missing a lot of personnel

122
00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,920
Speaker 1: and are just a sloppy group in general. The Sons

123
00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,080
Speaker 1: were very limited in their personnel. Devin Booker shot eighty percent,

124
00:06:08,880 --> 00:06:11,200
Speaker 1: like the Nuggets did face Devin Booker and Kevin Durant

125
00:06:11,440 --> 00:06:14,160
Speaker 1: and handled them, so like on some level, you need

126
00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:15,960
Speaker 1: to be like, yeah, they face some pretty good offenses.

127
00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:18,440
Speaker 1: The Lakers were not a great half court offense. They're

128
00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,400
Speaker 1: just not like they don't have a lot of firepower.

129
00:06:21,040 --> 00:06:22,560
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily know that the Heat have a lot

130
00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,400
Speaker 1: of firepower. It's mostly Jimmy Butler and then whatever random

131
00:06:25,440 --> 00:06:28,080
Speaker 1: role player decides to shoot fifty percent from three that night. Like,

132
00:06:28,640 --> 00:06:31,000
Speaker 1: all of these things are definitely possible. I talked a

133
00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:33,240
Speaker 1: lot about this on the series preview. You can catch

134
00:06:33,279 --> 00:06:35,760
Speaker 1: that full episode and the Buckets feed if you disagree,

135
00:06:35,760 --> 00:06:37,640
Speaker 1: if you're just like, well, I think they'll continue to shoot.

136
00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:39,640
Speaker 1: I just think that they'll continue to make these shots.

137
00:06:39,760 --> 00:06:41,920
Speaker 1: You should definitely bet Miami. You're getting great value. You're

138
00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,160
Speaker 1: getting awesome return on this, and it's getting better by

139
00:06:44,160 --> 00:06:47,320
Speaker 1: the second. But from a tactical perspective, starting with Nikola

140
00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:49,880
Speaker 1: Yogic versus Bam, I'm at a bio and all the

141
00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:52,640
Speaker 1: way down, I have a really hard time finding edges

142
00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,159
Speaker 1: for Miami to get enough of an edge to be

143
00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:56,800
Speaker 1: able to get this done. Let's go back and start

144
00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:58,440
Speaker 1: with ac I want to talk about this for a minute,

145
00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,320
Speaker 1: so you see when you kind of looked at how

146
00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:03,960
Speaker 1: the series goes, I thought that the math was really

147
00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:07,160
Speaker 1: interesting there because both Sean and I are kind of

148
00:07:07,200 --> 00:07:09,560
Speaker 1: leaning towards a shorter series, and like, I'll be real

149
00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:13,520
Speaker 1: with you, like I've considered the sweep. I've considered it.

150
00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,480
Speaker 1: I always think that that just takes more. I'm just

151
00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:18,200
Speaker 1: gonna be straight with you. That takes more balls than

152
00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:19,720
Speaker 1: I have, Like I just don't have the balls that

153
00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:21,680
Speaker 1: sweeps here because I'm always like, well, they can get

154
00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:24,160
Speaker 1: a game, like they're a really good team, or especially

155
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:25,400
Speaker 1: in this case, I'm like, am I really gonna say

156
00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:27,880
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler's not gonna win a game like Eric s

157
00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:30,920
Speaker 1: Folster is not winning a game, but getting it to

158
00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:33,560
Speaker 1: six I think is a really interesting concept. Why do

159
00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,560
Speaker 1: you feel like game six being the elimination mode either

160
00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:38,720
Speaker 1: way has the value here based on the.

161
00:07:38,760 --> 00:07:41,680
Speaker 2: Number to be To be completely transparent, I like both

162
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:44,120
Speaker 2: five games and six games. I think six games is

163
00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:48,040
Speaker 2: a little stronger. I'm giving more credit to a coach

164
00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:51,120
Speaker 2: who has made it to the finals before, right, I know,

165
00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:54,680
Speaker 2: Denver is superior in almost every way, you can even

166
00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:57,800
Speaker 2: include coaching, because I think Mike Malone is very, very underrated.

167
00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:00,800
Speaker 2: But we can't discount the fact that this is everybody's

168
00:08:00,840 --> 00:08:04,160
Speaker 2: first time in Denver, their first time in the NBA finals,

169
00:08:04,400 --> 00:08:06,720
Speaker 2: So they might not. They might not lose game one

170
00:08:06,840 --> 00:08:10,480
Speaker 2: because of the overwhelming rest advantage. But I think in

171
00:08:10,920 --> 00:08:13,600
Speaker 2: games two, three, or four, where there where there is

172
00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,360
Speaker 2: going to be one or two occasions where it's it's

173
00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,280
Speaker 2: like a deer in the headlight spot. I think we

174
00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,000
Speaker 2: might see that out of Denver. No matter how great

175
00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:23,440
Speaker 2: they are, everybody goes through it. Lebron went through it.

176
00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:27,120
Speaker 2: Everybody went through it. So I think I think I'm

177
00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,800
Speaker 2: going to give Miami at least one game, and then

178
00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:32,880
Speaker 2: the second game is really just really just the numbers,

179
00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:35,400
Speaker 2: because over and over five and a half games is

180
00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,800
Speaker 2: juice to the over minus one forty. The books are

181
00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,080
Speaker 2: expecting it to be over five and a half games.

182
00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,360
Speaker 2: I'm just going to choose six there, but again fully transparent.

183
00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:47,720
Speaker 2: I like both five and six. I lean the shorter series.

184
00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:50,840
Speaker 2: I agree with you it's hard to find an advantage

185
00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,880
Speaker 2: for Miami here, but I think I think those type

186
00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:57,000
Speaker 2: of series where we think it's going to be easy,

187
00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,000
Speaker 2: ends up being a lot more competitive than we expect.

188
00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:02,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's interesting that you say that in terms of

189
00:09:02,200 --> 00:09:03,720
Speaker 1: like the number, because you're right, that's used to the

190
00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:05,920
Speaker 1: over right, so like there's a market expectation of this

191
00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:11,920
Speaker 1: going longer, which is indirect that's directly against where the

192
00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:16,040
Speaker 1: exact outcomes where those are at. Because in those in

193
00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:20,480
Speaker 1: those Nuggets in five is the most likely outcome based

194
00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:23,319
Speaker 1: off of the number. So like Nuggets in five at

195
00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:27,480
Speaker 1: Bandle plus two hundred, four to two is plus four thirty,

196
00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:31,439
Speaker 1: Miami four to two is plus nine hundred. Now you

197
00:09:31,480 --> 00:09:33,720
Speaker 1: got to put those together right for the games for

198
00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:35,880
Speaker 1: it to end. Like you're kind of right in that

199
00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:39,760
Speaker 1: when you put them both outcomes nuggets or heat together,

200
00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:41,680
Speaker 1: that's where we kind of wind up with that variance

201
00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:44,520
Speaker 1: because there's a very low probability of heat in five.

202
00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:49,079
Speaker 1: There's a very high probability of Nuggets in five comparatively

203
00:09:49,080 --> 00:09:50,720
Speaker 1: speaking to the rest of the market. So it kind

204
00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:52,280
Speaker 1: of shows you an interesting way to go about this.

205
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,199
Speaker 1: As far as like the basketball side of this, I

206
00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,200
Speaker 1: think it's pretty reasonable just from the perspective the question

207
00:09:57,280 --> 00:09:59,280
Speaker 1: of I thought about this today when I was sitting

208
00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:01,520
Speaker 1: in that arena for the the first time in my

209
00:10:01,640 --> 00:10:05,440
Speaker 1: eleven years covering the Never Nuggets. There's an infranchise history

210
00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:07,960
Speaker 1: like in ever ever in the history of that team.

211
00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:12,400
Speaker 1: NBA Finals is on the logos it's on the signage.

212
00:10:13,080 --> 00:10:16,560
Speaker 1: That's crazy. And so I was thinking about all the guys.

213
00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,440
Speaker 1: I do think Aaron Gordon gonna be a big spot.

214
00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:21,840
Speaker 1: I think Jamal Murray is gonna be very amped. I

215
00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,840
Speaker 1: think Christian Brown is a rookie big spot for him.

216
00:10:26,200 --> 00:10:27,959
Speaker 1: But then he got guys like KCP and he got

217
00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,000
Speaker 1: Jeff Green, and maybe this is the most important thing.

218
00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:34,880
Speaker 1: I just don't think Jokic cares like he is unflappable.

219
00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,560
Speaker 1: That dude just does. Honestly, my big takeaway from him

220
00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:39,200
Speaker 1: is how much he's gonna hate having to do media.

221
00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:41,439
Speaker 1: Like he had to wait for Michael Malone to finish

222
00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,880
Speaker 1: the day and was already annoyed and then was just

223
00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:45,800
Speaker 1: like you can just tell he hates this and he

224
00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:48,280
Speaker 1: spoiler alert, it's gonna have to do it a lot.

225
00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,160
Speaker 1: But like as far as like the stage, some guys

226
00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,400
Speaker 1: get up on that podium and they're like they're ready

227
00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,880
Speaker 1: to be the center of the attention, like they're ready

228
00:10:56,880 --> 00:10:59,240
Speaker 1: to have all and like Jokis is just like, okay,

229
00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 1: I'm here, yeah, same questions I've always been asked, Okay, cool,

230
00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:04,800
Speaker 1: all right, I'm gonna leave now. And so I don't

231
00:11:04,840 --> 00:11:07,439
Speaker 1: think that he's gonna and I think if Yogic is unflappable,

232
00:11:07,679 --> 00:11:11,240
Speaker 1: I think that helps the Nuggets be unflappable, which kind

233
00:11:11,240 --> 00:11:13,320
Speaker 1: of impacts that cap. But just like look shot Mary,

234
00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:15,880
Speaker 1: it's probably just Miam is gonna get one. Like at

235
00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:18,400
Speaker 1: some point, even if it's unlikely for them to have

236
00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:20,480
Speaker 1: done what they've done, they have done it. And so

237
00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:22,959
Speaker 1: if they just have another game where they're shooting absolutely

238
00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,560
Speaker 1: lights out, even if it's not the fifty percent mark

239
00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:28,080
Speaker 1: or sixty percent from three, if they're just shooting well,

240
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:30,040
Speaker 1: especially in one of the home games, it's probably enough

241
00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:32,440
Speaker 1: to get them there, you know, and then maybe enough

242
00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,120
Speaker 1: to get them two. So I don't hate it. It's

243
00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,720
Speaker 1: one of the reasons why I, you know, we're paying

244
00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:38,679
Speaker 1: the juice on this minus one and a half sean

245
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,520
Speaker 1: in part like for me, that's like the insurance play

246
00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,840
Speaker 1: on this is like I feel so much better about

247
00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:48,439
Speaker 1: just paying that extra juice under two hundred rather than

248
00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:50,480
Speaker 1: having to go in here and be like, well, yeah,

249
00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:51,960
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna win in five, So I'm just

250
00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:54,360
Speaker 1: gonna get this nice plus number and then have to

251
00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:56,800
Speaker 1: live with, oh god, if they win two games, my

252
00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:57,480
Speaker 1: bet loses.

253
00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:00,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly right, and I think it's be around that

254
00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:02,679
Speaker 3: minus two hundred number. I still don't mind it at

255
00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:04,720
Speaker 3: the one seventy five, I'm glad I got it a

256
00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,920
Speaker 3: little bit shorter to give a little more context on

257
00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:09,720
Speaker 3: Jokic and his attitude. When the Nuggets were in the

258
00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:13,000
Speaker 3: garden to play the Knicks, everyone was warming up, everyone

259
00:12:13,120 --> 00:12:15,959
Speaker 3: was amped up, you know, the the garden bump they

260
00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:21,079
Speaker 3: call it. Jokics was literally sitting on the bench, legs crossed,

261
00:12:21,600 --> 00:12:23,960
Speaker 3: kind of waiting for his other players to finish their

262
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,720
Speaker 3: pregame warm up. I posted a picture on Twitter, go

263
00:12:26,800 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 3: back and try to find it, but he was just

264
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:33,840
Speaker 3: completely not into the atmosphere. Just it's just not his thing.

265
00:12:34,160 --> 00:12:36,000
Speaker 3: Just he doesn't really he just wants to go I'll

266
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,280
Speaker 3: play ball, do his thing, and that's what he's continued

267
00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,160
Speaker 3: to do. But yeah, I agree with you one hundred percent,

268
00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:43,599
Speaker 3: Matt the I'll pay the Jews for the extra insurance.

269
00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,559
Speaker 3: I do not, in any way, shape or form, see

270
00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,560
Speaker 3: this going seven games for the Denver Nuggets. I just

271
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:53,760
Speaker 3: cannot see it. And like I said, and that's not

272
00:12:53,840 --> 00:12:55,880
Speaker 3: a cap in anyway for him. We're gonna get into

273
00:12:56,080 --> 00:12:58,800
Speaker 3: some numbers and what I think how the season is

274
00:12:58,800 --> 00:13:00,840
Speaker 3: gonna go and why I do think AG is a

275
00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,400
Speaker 3: big piece. We'll get into Jimmy Butler's struggles on the

276
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,360
Speaker 3: offensive end. We'll jump into all that stuff. But yeah, Matt,

277
00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,360
Speaker 3: I agree, pay the juice for the extra insurance. The

278
00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,400
Speaker 3: Nuggets will take care of business in five or six games.

279
00:13:13,040 --> 00:13:15,679
Speaker 1: Ac. Let's talk about this from the perspective of that

280
00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:17,600
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler matchup. Let's get into that because I think

281
00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,600
Speaker 1: there's been a lot of conversation about Jokic versus Bam.

282
00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,760
Speaker 1: If you want more on that, you can catch my

283
00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,560
Speaker 1: series preview in the Action Network app. Here's the cliff

284
00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,600
Speaker 1: notes on it. Jokic fucking destroys him. Bam is amazing.

285
00:13:30,679 --> 00:13:32,640
Speaker 1: Bam again is I think the best defender in the NBA.

286
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:35,760
Speaker 1: Jokic moves through him like water, Like there is nothing

287
00:13:35,800 --> 00:13:37,920
Speaker 1: that Bam can do. They are going to have to

288
00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:40,480
Speaker 1: try all number of things in this and usually their

289
00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,000
Speaker 1: bailout is, well, we'll just go zone. The Nuggets of

290
00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:45,240
Speaker 1: the number one team scoring against zone in the NBA.

291
00:13:46,600 --> 00:13:48,560
Speaker 1: Joker was not gonna give away any of the secrets

292
00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,920
Speaker 1: as far as like how he beats zone availability. On Wednesday,

293
00:13:52,960 --> 00:13:54,760
Speaker 1: he was like, we'll see, maybe I'll really struggle, maybe

294
00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,440
Speaker 1: I'll have ten turnovers. Because again, he just does not

295
00:13:57,600 --> 00:13:59,400
Speaker 1: get phased by this. He's just like, we'll play and

296
00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:02,760
Speaker 1: we'll see. But if you're gonna beat the zone, guess

297
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:04,600
Speaker 1: what you want. You want a big, flashing medal that

298
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:08,880
Speaker 1: can pass Nicole yass shoot. Yeah, pretty good, big that

299
00:14:08,920 --> 00:14:11,480
Speaker 1: can flash the middle, shoot and pass. Well, let's talk

300
00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,640
Speaker 1: about Jimmy, because I think it's a really interesting question.

301
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:17,040
Speaker 1: But Brandon Aser brought this up in our series preview

302
00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:18,720
Speaker 1: and it has stuck with me because I hadn't actually

303
00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:21,440
Speaker 1: looked at the numbers first round series versus Milwaukee, in

304
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:23,960
Speaker 1: part because he scores the fifty six. He averages thirty

305
00:14:23,960 --> 00:14:27,200
Speaker 1: eight in that series. The bigger number is since he's

306
00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:30,480
Speaker 1: averaged twenty five, less than twenty five in the two

307
00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:32,880
Speaker 1: series since, including one versus the New York Knicks, who,

308
00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:34,960
Speaker 1: to be quite frank were not an impressive team to me.

309
00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:40,920
Speaker 1: So Jimmy hasn't been like amazing playoff Jimmy and Caleb

310
00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:43,480
Speaker 1: Martin stepped up, and I will say this like Butler

311
00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:45,760
Speaker 1: had fifteen in the fourth in a couple of these

312
00:14:45,880 --> 00:14:48,760
Speaker 1: key games and was huge like that's where he gets scary.

313
00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,960
Speaker 1: Denver's also a really good clutch time team. But let's start.

314
00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,960
Speaker 1: They see, your best bet for game one is an

315
00:14:56,040 --> 00:14:59,120
Speaker 1: under on Jimmy Butler, and you've talked about that in

316
00:14:59,160 --> 00:15:01,240
Speaker 1: our Game one episode on Buckets. But give me kind

317
00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:03,000
Speaker 1: of what your thoughts are on the matchup, and then

318
00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,120
Speaker 1: we'll get Sean's thoughts as well on how the Nuggets

319
00:15:05,160 --> 00:15:08,040
Speaker 1: are going to have to defend Jimmy Butler and playoff Jimmy.

320
00:15:08,800 --> 00:15:11,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, outside of that Milwaukee Bucks game where he had

321
00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,080
Speaker 2: I think like twenty something in the first quarter, Jimmy

322
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:16,200
Speaker 2: Butler is a player that usually allows the game to

323
00:15:16,240 --> 00:15:19,120
Speaker 2: get to him, get to him, so he allows the

324
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:21,200
Speaker 2: game to just go through the motions and then the

325
00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,840
Speaker 2: fourth quarter. It's kind of like the Derek Rose Chicago

326
00:15:23,840 --> 00:15:26,720
Speaker 2: Bulls offense. It's Derek Rose I saw at the top,

327
00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,200
Speaker 2: or Derek Rose find a mismatch, and I think that's

328
00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,720
Speaker 2: the same with Jimmy Butler here where with Boston they

329
00:15:32,760 --> 00:15:36,880
Speaker 2: decided to never send help. They decided to if he's

330
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:39,640
Speaker 2: you know, if he's cooking, I like Grant Williams. But

331
00:15:39,680 --> 00:15:42,600
Speaker 2: when he was cooking Grant Williams, they never you know,

332
00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:45,960
Speaker 2: make a made a change in terms of lineups in

333
00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,240
Speaker 2: turn in terms of schemes in the background. So I

334
00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:51,720
Speaker 2: think the coaching there is big. But then the guys

335
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,360
Speaker 2: that Jimmy's gonna have to face with Denver and Lebron

336
00:15:55,440 --> 00:15:57,680
Speaker 2: went through this in the Western Conference finals. Like these

337
00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:00,960
Speaker 2: are great defenders. We're talking about Eric Gore and Aaron Gordon,

338
00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:05,360
Speaker 2: who six's eight two forty, stronger than Jimmy Butler, can

339
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:09,600
Speaker 2: jump probably you know, rebound and jump higher than Jimmy Butler.

340
00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,120
Speaker 2: Then you know, after you get with Aaron Gordon, you

341
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,000
Speaker 2: got to deal with Christian Brown, who's young athletics sixty

342
00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,840
Speaker 2: six himself casep. You know he's going to be in

343
00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:19,920
Speaker 2: the passing lanes and go and try to get some

344
00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:22,680
Speaker 2: steal some cookies there. And then Bruce Brown, who plays

345
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,160
Speaker 2: above his size, who's six four to two hundred, but

346
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,600
Speaker 2: he's definitely going to give another look to Jimmy Butler.

347
00:16:27,840 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 2: I think Mike Malone is going to continue to throw

348
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:34,560
Speaker 2: different looks at him every other possession, every quarter, similar

349
00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 2: to what Spoe does for Miami, whether it's man o

350
00:16:37,920 --> 00:16:41,480
Speaker 2: man or or or zone defense. I think that's what

351
00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:45,000
Speaker 2: Malone is going to do for Denver against Jimmy Butler.

352
00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:49,520
Speaker 3: See I think that if I think Jimmy Butler is

353
00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 3: going to be looking for Bruce Brown and Jamal Murray

354
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,840
Speaker 3: all night long, they're just too little. If you see

355
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 3: how Jimmy Butler get gets busy on the offensive end,

356
00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:58,640
Speaker 3: he wants to bang a little bit and then go

357
00:16:58,760 --> 00:17:00,960
Speaker 3: straight up over the top and just shoot the rock.

358
00:17:01,080 --> 00:17:03,920
Speaker 3: That's when he has success. Guys like Tom Lord, Robert

359
00:17:03,960 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 3: Williams gives him, gave him a ton of trouble because

360
00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:09,359
Speaker 3: he's a big dude that can move his feet and

361
00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,199
Speaker 3: is gonna stay on the ground. And then Jimmy's kind

362
00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,440
Speaker 3: of in a tough spot because he can't just rise

363
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,399
Speaker 3: up over guys and kind of give that little leaner

364
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,520
Speaker 3: where it's like if you if you give me any contact,

365
00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:22,399
Speaker 3: I'm getting the whistle and I'm going to the line.

366
00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:25,960
Speaker 3: So I agree with you on ag I think Aaron

367
00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:29,040
Speaker 3: Gordon's gonna be massive for the series. Another big guy

368
00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:32,119
Speaker 3: that can move his feet. That's long. I think I

369
00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:36,360
Speaker 3: think Christian braun Are Brown excuse me, excuse me, Brown

370
00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:40,080
Speaker 3: is an underrated guy that's gonna get a lot of

371
00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 3: that if he gets a lot of when he gets minutes.

372
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:44,479
Speaker 3: I haven't seen him all playoffs get minutes and not

373
00:17:44,640 --> 00:17:49,239
Speaker 3: use them and play being gay impact the game. He

374
00:17:49,280 --> 00:17:51,400
Speaker 3: impacts the game. He does things when he's out there.

375
00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,439
Speaker 3: I remember the first time I saw Walker Kessler. I

376
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 3: was like, this, Scott does things out here, like he's

377
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,360
Speaker 3: making impact on the game. If you know his name

378
00:17:58,440 --> 00:18:01,280
Speaker 3: or not, you will because the announcer and the color

379
00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 3: guy are going to be saying it because he's out

380
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:06,920
Speaker 3: there making plays. Now, I think Jeff Green's another guy

381
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 3: that's big, long and can move his feet. He's not

382
00:18:09,200 --> 00:18:11,480
Speaker 3: young Jeff Green, but he still would be a guy

383
00:18:11,520 --> 00:18:13,639
Speaker 3: that would give Jimmy Butler issues. To go back to

384
00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:16,080
Speaker 3: what Matt was talking about, this is another number that

385
00:18:16,119 --> 00:18:19,439
Speaker 3: I saw for Jimmy. Jimmy flat out has been struggling offensively,

386
00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 3: and it's I didn't really just because I'm also a

387
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:25,719
Speaker 3: Jimmy lover. I didn't give it enough attention as it is.

388
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:28,160
Speaker 3: But like Matt said, once you kind of dive into

389
00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 3: the numbers and take a look, it is a little jarring.

390
00:18:30,240 --> 00:18:33,760
Speaker 3: Jimmy Butler in this Playoffs has played six hundred and

391
00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:36,760
Speaker 3: seventy minutes when he's on the floor of Miami's point

392
00:18:36,760 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 3: differential is only a plus one, so he's it's not

393
00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:44,359
Speaker 3: like they're out there just running people off the floor. Offensively.

394
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,760
Speaker 3: When he's out there, he's getting tons of help. We've

395
00:18:46,800 --> 00:18:50,399
Speaker 3: highlighted gave Vincy, Caleb Martin and those guys. But Jimmy

396
00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,919
Speaker 3: since that New York Knicks series, has been struggling. I

397
00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:57,400
Speaker 3: mentioned this earlier. Jimmy Butler has only shot fifty plus

398
00:18:57,480 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 3: percent from the field once since Game three versus the Knicks.

399
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 3: That was on May eighth, he took it. He shot

400
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,200
Speaker 3: at fifty percent on the dott in Game five versus Celtics,

401
00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 3: but that was only on ten attempts and that was

402
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,600
Speaker 3: in the blowout where the Celtics got the w. Going

403
00:19:12,640 --> 00:19:15,400
Speaker 3: back to that Milwaukee series, in the first seven games

404
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,960
Speaker 3: of the playoffs, he shot it over fifty percent six times,

405
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:24,280
Speaker 3: three games over sixty percent. He was absolutely cooking Drew

406
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,399
Speaker 3: Holliday and the rest of those guys. That's how they

407
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,840
Speaker 3: got out of that series so easily. Then they beat

408
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 3: up on the Knicks because they were overall better team

409
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 3: than the Knicks. But when we get down to the

410
00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,640
Speaker 3: the actual nitty gritty of kind of what happened here.

411
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 3: I think the reason that the Miami Heat were able

412
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 3: to survive game they lost Game six, but then we

413
00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,160
Speaker 3: ended up ended up getting the W in Game seven.

414
00:19:46,200 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 3: I think the reason they had a shot to actually

415
00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:52,480
Speaker 3: win Game six was because Boston shot it as poor

416
00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 3: as they have all year, a combined sixteen of seventy

417
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,920
Speaker 3: seven from Game six and Game seven and one hundred

418
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 3: two games this year. I got this from John Shulman

419
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 3: on Twitter. That's there the first in the second worst

420
00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 3: shooting games of the entire season, one hundred and two

421
00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,080
Speaker 3: games where the Eastern Conference Finals Game six and Game seven.

422
00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:17,159
Speaker 3: So Miami has been fortunate with the shooting variants of

423
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,160
Speaker 3: their own and ran across some of the worst shooting

424
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 3: the Celtics could ever put up, and they were able

425
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 3: to get the W and move on. I think they're

426
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,800
Speaker 3: gonna need to beat the Nuggets. They're gonna need that

427
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 3: type of shooting in multiple games from the Denver Nuggets,

428
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:37,080
Speaker 3: and Jokic is just too efficient. They have too many guys.

429
00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:39,159
Speaker 3: This is not the Boston Celtics. This is a completely

430
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 3: different team. Without Jimmy's ability to score, I think he's

431
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,679
Speaker 3: gonna continue to struggle in this series. I don't know

432
00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:48,320
Speaker 3: where the buckets are gonna come from. For the Miami Heat,

433
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,800
Speaker 3: he has to be one for one with Jokic. That's

434
00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:52,960
Speaker 3: not gonna happen, and then the role players are gonna

435
00:20:52,960 --> 00:20:55,760
Speaker 3: fill in the rest. That's why I lean the under.

436
00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:57,159
Speaker 3: I like to play on the under in Game one

437
00:20:57,160 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 3: for Jimmy Butler, but that's why overall I think the

438
00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 3: Nuggets are there too much. Jimmy Butler offensively has been struggling.

439
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:06,040
Speaker 1: So Jimmy's average the fifth most percentage of time in isolation.

440
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,280
Speaker 1: Let's be a synergy sports. He will run pick and

441
00:21:09,359 --> 00:21:11,360
Speaker 1: roll and he'll kind of target guys and they will

442
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:12,920
Speaker 1: be able to kind of do that a little bit

443
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 1: like some of this is gonna get into I have.

444
00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 1: One of the things I'm interested in as a series

445
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,639
Speaker 1: starts is how much do the Nuggets allow to switch?

446
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 1: Because they let Lebron get to it in Game one

447
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 1: versus Jamal Murray and that was part of their comeback,

448
00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 1: and then the Nuggets did a much better job of

449
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 1: not allowing that switches often and when it did occur,

450
00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:36,800
Speaker 1: of showing a lot of help to get the ball

451
00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,840
Speaker 1: out and then scramming it to reset like this is

452
00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 1: one of the differences between what Miami has faced defensively

453
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,600
Speaker 1: with other teams in Denver. And if you're like, Denver's

454
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,520
Speaker 1: not a great defensive team, you're right. But what Denver's

455
00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 1: really good at is a really great at solving problems.

456
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 1: And one of the reasons that they're good at solving

457
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,399
Speaker 1: problems is because they have to because their personnel is worse.

458
00:21:55,720 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: Like this is kind of the key here, is like

459
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,240
Speaker 1: my Boston is just like, we're gonna switch out everything.

460
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:01,520
Speaker 1: We'll play a little bit of drop. Because they have

461
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 1: so many good defenders everywhere, they don't want to get

462
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:06,119
Speaker 1: in rotation. They do everything possible to stay out of

463
00:22:06,200 --> 00:22:10,280
Speaker 1: rotation the way the Warriors used to. Similarly, the Bucks

464
00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,720
Speaker 1: kind of did the same thing, except the Bucks whole

465
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 1: thing is we're gonna play drop and use as a

466
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 1: base coverage so we can extend and guard your shooters

467
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: and the heat we're able to basically just challenge them

468
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:23,399
Speaker 1: off the dribble and tear them up that way. And

469
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 1: the Bucks honestly just played like garbage and shot pretty

470
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: badly as well. The Nuggets, on the other hand, they're

471
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,359
Speaker 1: comfortable in rotation they're comfortable in, like, yeah, we are

472
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,120
Speaker 1: going to overload this side, then we're gonna run back

473
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:34,760
Speaker 1: the other way, and then this guy's going to x

474
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 1: out to the other one and we're gonna and they

475
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 1: will have breakdowns and they will allow open threes. And again,

476
00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 1: if Caleb, if you think Caleb Martin or Max or

477
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,360
Speaker 1: Max Strus or Gave Vincent are going to shoot better

478
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,200
Speaker 1: than forty nine percent in this series from three, which

479
00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 1: is what they have been able to accomplish before, you

480
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 1: should bet Miami because you're getting a really great price

481
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 1: on them. But if we're really talking about it, this

482
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 1: is one of the differences is it's not about the

483
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 1: quality of the defense. It's about the type of defense

484
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 1: facing Aaron Gordon. Here a similar quiet question, who's a

485
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 1: better defender, Drew Holliday or Aaron Gordon. It's obviously Drew Holliday.

486
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:08,640
Speaker 1: Drew Holiday is one of the best defenders in the league.

487
00:23:09,080 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 1: But Drew's small. The Nuggets are big all over, and

488
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: if you're gonna get Jimmy, you gotta wear him down.

489
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:19,160
Speaker 1: It is absolutely a battle of attrition, and that dude

490
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:20,959
Speaker 1: is on a bad wheel that he's been playing on

491
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: for weeks. He has looked already exhausted and banged up,

492
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,000
Speaker 1: and like he will look fresh I think probably in

493
00:23:27,040 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: game one. But the problem is like by Game three,

494
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: by Game four, and then on top of all this,

495
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 1: it gets into this has been one of my favorite numbers.

496
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: The highest offensive rating that Miami has allowed in a win,

497
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 1: so they've won the game, but they allowed a high

498
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 1: offensive rating was one nineteen point six. The Nuggets average

499
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,159
Speaker 1: offensive rating for the entire playoffs, including their losses, is

500
00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:51,560
Speaker 1: one nineteen point seven, not their average in wins. That's

501
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: like in the one twenty fives, it's already one nineteen

502
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 1: point seven. The threshold is so high for this Nuggets team.

503
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: They can have a bad offensive night with like a

504
00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 1: one to twelve offensive rating in the playoffs. They've had

505
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:08,479
Speaker 1: bad nights with ninety fives. They also won those games.

506
00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 1: Like this is one of the keys with them is

507
00:24:10,880 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 1: like if you're spending so much energy defending them, congratulations,

508
00:24:14,080 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: you dragged down the Denver offense. Now you're at a

509
00:24:16,800 --> 00:24:19,639
Speaker 1: gas and you're absolutely trying to just like force some

510
00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: stuff up to try and get stuff to go.

511
00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 2: Matt, I do want to double click on not only

512
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 2: Jimmy Butler. But the opponent that Miami is facing, Matt

513
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 2: kind of got into it. But Boston's a great team individual, individually,

514
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 2: two all NBA performers. Right, Yes, they were hurt and

515
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 2: some Jylen Brown was playing awful, But from a complexity standpoint,

516
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,640
Speaker 2: the offense wasn't that hard to defend. All Boston did

517
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 2: was thrown around the perimeter and then once they got

518
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,400
Speaker 2: an open three, they shot it. Of course they missed

519
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 2: the majority of them, but that was their offense. On

520
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 2: defense very similar. They're getting hunted by Jimmy Butler. Guys

521
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 2: like Derek White and Marcus Smart are getting single covered

522
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:04,120
Speaker 2: and they're getting torched inside. No adjustments, no sending help.

523
00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 2: You're gonna see a team here in Denver that's gonna

524
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 2: move the ball like crazy, that's gonna kill the zone.

525
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 2: So that's gonna make the Miami Heat players actually defend

526
00:25:14,080 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 2: on defense. And then on the other side of this,

527
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,960
Speaker 2: on the other side of the court, Yes, you're right.

528
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 2: I think Jimmy Butler is gonna go get in the

529
00:25:21,440 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 2: pick and roll and he's gonna hunt guys like Jamal Murray,

530
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: Bruce Brown, put him in the post and rise up

531
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 2: over them. But the difference is you're gonna have MPJ

532
00:25:30,040 --> 00:25:32,679
Speaker 2: or Aaron Gordon on the backside getting ready to double,

533
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:36,959
Speaker 2: or you're gonna have Jokic shading to Butler's side. Like

534
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 2: we didn't see any of that out of Boston for

535
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 2: some reason. And Matt talks about this all the time.

536
00:25:42,440 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 2: But Boston lost their defensive identity which made them great

537
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 2: last year. They didn't do it this year, although the

538
00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,679
Speaker 2: numbers don't suggest it. I think Denver because of their coaching,

539
00:25:52,760 --> 00:25:55,000
Speaker 2: it's just a more versatile defense, and I think that's

540
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:57,280
Speaker 2: gonna give Jimmy Butler some issues.

541
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,520
Speaker 3: Also, I believe Miami is gonna be one and done

542
00:25:59,800 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 3: at They're gonna they're gonna get one shot up and

543
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 3: then they're gonna get killed on the glass, and it's

544
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 3: gonna be trying to get back on d and stopping

545
00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 3: the best offense in the NBA.

546
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: If you if you listen to the comments from the

547
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,959
Speaker 1: other teams they faced, both Phoenix and the Lakers had

548
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 1: comments about this, which is like everyone focuses on Jokic

549
00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,359
Speaker 1: because he's pretty good, and everyone focuses on Jamal because

550
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 1: he's pretty good. But those are the things that those

551
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: guys both said is they're like they're so freaking big.

552
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:31,280
Speaker 1: Like their power forward is six' ten In Michael Porter,

553
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: junior their small forward is six,' eight kcp is, Six

554
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,280
Speaker 1: seven like they have big dudes all the Way Through bruce.

555
00:26:40,320 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 1: Brown Small to, AC's Point Those bruce brown minutes are

556
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: so here's like a here's like, a pathway right if

557
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:48,399
Speaker 1: you're listening to this and you're somebody that wants to

558
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:49,720
Speaker 1: bet the heat and, you're like, come, on guys like

559
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: there's gonna be a. Pathway here here's. Like one there's

560
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 1: a bunch, of them but. Here's one IT'S that Mpj

561
00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,119
Speaker 1: Or aaron gordon pick up foul Trouble Because jimmy butler

562
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:02,439
Speaker 1: is an, Elite grifter like he is amazing at. Pump

563
00:27:02,480 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: fake you put your hands up and then he turns

564
00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: into your arm and draws. A foul it's, a, sneaky

565
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 1: honestly pretty frustrating as somebody that, enjoys basketball it's a,

566
00:27:12,400 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 1: frustrating call but it's absolutely a foul when he. Does it,

567
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,440
Speaker 1: that's Why Like jamal murray was asked about this today

568
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:18,919
Speaker 1: about like what do? You do you gotta show your

569
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 1: hands at. All times if, they're low they're gonna call

570
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:23,679
Speaker 1: it a push off or an illegal. Touch below, so

571
00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:26,480
Speaker 1: like gotta show your hands at. All times if He

572
00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 1: Gets aaron gordon in Trouble And bruce brown, comes in

573
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,159
Speaker 1: And Now bruce brown Is Covering jimmy butler because you

574
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: Don't want jamal on him and you don't want To

575
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 1: start jimmy, YOU know mpj on him and cacp's got

576
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 1: a rotation. Right Now, bruce brown a much much smaller

577
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 1: defender who struggles with, bigger guys is on six To Seven,

578
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,639
Speaker 1: jimmy butler And now jimmy can do some stuff and

579
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: you're off to, The races like that's. One pathway there are,

580
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: pathways here they're just unlikely and there that all, Starts,

581
00:27:52,080 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 1: with Yeah If aaron gordon gets in enough foul trouble

582
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 1: for it. To matter but also guess What If aaron

583
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 1: gordon comes off, The floor you're adding another shoe next To.

584
00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:04,480
Speaker 1: Nicolehio kitsch it's it's, Tough, here shawn you kinda talked.

585
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 1: About this want to ask. You this do you see

586
00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 1: this is more of an over or an under Series

587
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,920
Speaker 1: because i'll, tell you like my game one strategy and

588
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 1: if you want to hear more about our, game ones

589
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: We've got Game One Best, Bet Over Best bets episode

590
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: over in buckets from. This series i'm waiting on game

591
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:21,200
Speaker 1: one to get as much squeezed to the over because

592
00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: it is getting hammered. Right now it's at two nineteen

593
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 1: and a half and. Going up i'm gonna play the

594
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: under because of a number. Of reasons in this game,

595
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: one spot our Guy j money is actually on the

596
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: over For The dinner Nuggets in. Game one he thinks

597
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: you're gonna put up. One twenty do you see this

598
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: as an over or an? Under series because what we

599
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: have here is an extremely slow paced team facing another

600
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 1: extremely slow paced team who are both extremely efficient when

601
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: they do run, in transition but they don't do it,

602
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 1: that often and two offenses that have managed to be

603
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:56,080
Speaker 1: very good in half court in. The playoffs do you

604
00:28:56,120 --> 00:28:57,400
Speaker 1: see this as an over or an? Under?

605
00:28:57,400 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 3: SERIES yeah i want to cheat her a. Little Bit,

606
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 3: Matt more i'm, gonna Say in denver it's looking like

607
00:29:02,640 --> 00:29:04,480
Speaker 3: it's more of, an overspot and then we Get to

608
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 3: miami it's gonna be more of. An. UNDERSPOT right i

609
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,800
Speaker 3: think that's how the overall series is. GONNA shake i

610
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,760
Speaker 3: Expect The denver nuggets to be chomping at. The bit

611
00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:15,760
Speaker 3: they can't wait to get back on. THE floor i

612
00:29:15,800 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 3: expect them to come out. Guns blazing Here in, GAME

613
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 3: one i saw an. Interesting number it's in. The market

614
00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 3: both teams in the first quarter to score twenty five

615
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:30,120
Speaker 3: points minus. One twenty i'm definitely not worried About The

616
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 3: denver nuggets scoring twenty. Five points now. They could it

617
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 3: could be a spot where JUST like i Mentioned That

618
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:40,520
Speaker 3: lakers game One where denver just Blitzed the lakers at,

619
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:42,840
Speaker 3: the start but that was still thirty seven to twenty.

620
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 3: Five twenty both teams to score twenty five points minus.

621
00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: Won twenty and in that, same outlet that, SAME book

622
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 3: i want to Say The miami heats team total in

623
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 3: the first quarter was like twenty seven and. A half

624
00:29:57,440 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 3: i thought that was. Very interesting, BUT yeah i would

625
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:02,760
Speaker 3: say At, in denver those boys are gonna get up.

626
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,240
Speaker 3: And down there's gonna be a little more tired legs

627
00:30:05,240 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 3: as the game. GOES on i would say. AN overspot

628
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:10,560
Speaker 3: i agree with Our God, jay money this is all

629
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 3: over the. Nugget spot you can do, first quarter you

630
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:14,960
Speaker 3: could do, first half you could do. FULL game i

631
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 3: think it's a double digit win for, those GUYS and

632
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:18,800
Speaker 3: i think they do put up quite a bit.

633
00:30:18,840 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 1: OF points I think.

634
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 2: I do I think i disagree with you guys just for,

635
00:30:22,880 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 2: game one just for, game ONE because i think the

636
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 2: adjustment to the to the elevation is gonna be Big.

637
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,000
Speaker 2: For miami And Then miami's, I'm sorry denver's been off

638
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: for a week and, a half, two weeks so you

639
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,120
Speaker 2: know they're gonna be. Amped up they're probably gonna shoot

640
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 2: a lot of shots long in that. First QUARTER so

641
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: i actually like the first Quarter UNDER but i think for,

642
00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 2: this series To answer, Matt's question denver's offense. Kills zones

643
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 2: So if miami is gonna be playing zone every, other

644
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 2: quarter those are the quarters that you want to look

645
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,000
Speaker 2: into and in terms, of OVERSPOTS because I think miami

646
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 2: is gonna be able to shoot and just bust the

647
00:30:58,320 --> 00:30:59,120
Speaker 2: zone all.

648
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,200
Speaker 3: Series long the interesting thing about the zone the, zone

649
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 3: IDEA because i agree they they they'll do a ton.

650
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:06,920
Speaker 3: Of things they'll Put you oki chat in the middle of, the,

651
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 3: floor though they'll run ball screens at the top of

652
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 3: the top of, THE key spo will run that ship

653
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 3: two or three times, be like, oh yeah this''s not

654
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,440
Speaker 3: working and he has a bunch of other different things

655
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,560
Speaker 3: that he can. Go to so it might be one

656
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 3: of those situations where the zone is getting torched and

657
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 3: we never ever see the. Zone, Again right so that's

658
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 3: that that that is a tip of the CAT. To.

659
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 3: Spo there there's a lot more adjustments that he. Can make,

660
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:33,480
Speaker 3: BUT yeah i just think that everything that spo is

661
00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 3: going to. GO to i Just like matt said off,

662
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,320
Speaker 3: THE top i can't see the Edge for Miami Unless

663
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 3: jimmy butler just goes Ballistic And calen martin continues to

664
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 3: go crazy and and and that's that's the way TO.

665
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:47,959
Speaker 1: A w, I mean i'm talking about this with some

666
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,200
Speaker 1: group chats embedding and one of the comments is like

667
00:31:50,240 --> 00:31:53,720
Speaker 1: this just feels. Too easy, it does and that's always a.

668
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 3: BAD sign, i say.

669
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 1: Nobody feels good. About that THE question i think you

670
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 1: have to ask is, Just, like okay it doesn't. Feel

671
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,520
Speaker 1: good should you bet based off? Of it, be like

672
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 1: in what situation would you Be like i'm going to

673
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: literally now staying away is a. Different question but we

674
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 1: don't have the opportunity because this is OUR last nba

675
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: series of, the, Year, right like if this were like a,

676
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,239
Speaker 1: random series we would probably if this was like a mid,

677
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 1: round series we'd probably Be Like brandon anderson said this

678
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: because it's a. One eight, he's like if this was

679
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 1: like your typical one, eight series we'd, Be, like yeah

680
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 1: there's no value here in, the market it's been it's

681
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 1: a team at a huge disadvantage versus a really. Great

682
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 1: team they should. Stomp them the market says that we don't.

683
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 1: Find value and that's not. A reason i'm not, telling

684
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 1: you like not to, bet IT because i do think

685
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: That the nuggets have good value here based on the

686
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: minus one and. A half i also, think though that

687
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: we have to be cognizant of like how, to balance

688
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: like the fact that it's like everyone's on, this side

689
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 1: shouldn't we go the? Other way and the, answer IS

690
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: like i think if you're just doing it as, a principle,

691
00:32:53,680 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: YOU know i want to ask, you that ac because

692
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: you're somebody that said that you. VALUE contrarianism i think

693
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 1: it's it's tough when there are logical reasons why this

694
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 1: has become. The case this isn't a public action like

695
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 1: this has been the sharps Of like denver, for months

696
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: the sharps Of like denver in, the playoffs and the

697
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 1: sharps Of like denver in, this series like their number

698
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 1: has shrunk Versus, the Suns the lakers and Now the

699
00:33:18,000 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 1: heat in the last three series before tip like they

700
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: have taken money and that's from sharp action to move.

701
00:33:25,640 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 1: The LINE so i guess my question for you here

702
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: is about the nature of this seems, so obvious Is

703
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: there is it just a matter, of, like yeah that's,

704
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 1: the danger going to have to get, through it or

705
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 1: how's that factor into your thinking as the.

706
00:33:37,720 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 2: Series, goes no it's a, great question and honestly it's

707
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 2: a simple answer because, for me the contrarian or public or,

708
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 2: sharp money all of that is is a factor to,

709
00:33:49,200 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 2: you know my, decision making but it's not the. Leading

710
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 2: factor it's more of like a. Tie breaker, let's SAY

711
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 2: if i have analysis on, both SIDES and i see

712
00:33:57,600 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: a pathway like, you say for, both teams and then

713
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 2: maybe it's eighty percent on one side of, the bets,

714
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 2: then Yeah maybe i'm going to lead more for. The

715
00:34:06,760 --> 00:34:10,040
Speaker 2: CONTRARIAN but i think in a situation, like this or

716
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:13,000
Speaker 2: let's say even even More in, Layman's term let's say

717
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 2: IN an nfl you're not gonna Bet Against patrick mahomes

718
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 2: because he is the best quarterback IN, the, nfl right

719
00:34:19,840 --> 00:34:21,600
Speaker 2: just because you want to be on the, other side

720
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 2: and the contrarian you're going against the best quarterback IN.

721
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,560
Speaker 2: The nfl, that's period. Point blank it's kind of like

722
00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,319
Speaker 2: this very simple analysis Here is denver has been the

723
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:34,800
Speaker 2: better team all, season long all. Playoffs long they haven't

724
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:38,360
Speaker 2: seen they haven't seen a, game, seven Right whereas. Miami's,

725
00:34:38,400 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: Seen yeah miami's coming Off of game seven against a

726
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 2: team that, woefully underperformed was, poorly coached and just didn't

727
00:34:46,040 --> 00:34:48,520
Speaker 2: look like they. Were interested they got up three, to

728
00:34:48,600 --> 00:34:50,879
Speaker 2: zero And then miami kind Of let game four. Slip

729
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 2: away but for this, PARTICULAR thing i would never lead

730
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:57,480
Speaker 2: the contrarian principles as a, leading factor more of a

731
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 2: confirmation or more of a. TIEBREAKER factor i Still think

732
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 2: denver is is versatile both on offense and defense to

733
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 2: handle all the Problems that Eric expos is gonna throw.

734
00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 2: At them so they're going to be able to kind

735
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 2: of just, problem solve, All right so go wrab it

736
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 2: up for this Episode The action. Network podcast my Thanks

737
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 2: to albert Win The analytics caprick can follow Him on

738
00:35:18,680 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 2: Twitter At analytics Capper And sean LITTLE Of msg networks

739
00:35:21,840 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 2: catch Him on Twitter At chicago flow and make It

740
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:28,920
Speaker 2: As Green day daily appearances weekly on our. WEEKLY show

741
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:31,520
Speaker 2: I appreciate sean helping me out this season as well As.

742
00:35:31,520 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: Hosting buckets you can catch episodes here all throughout. The

743
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 2: week MAKE sure i leave with those five. Star reviews

744
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 2: my Thanks To david Payne And, matt mitchell.

745
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: Our producers we'll see guys again next time On The

746
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 1: action network podcast brought to You by FanDuel's Sportsbook Let's.

747
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 1: Get Buckets.

748
00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 3: Action network reminds you please.

749
00:35:56,960 --> 00:36:00,440
Speaker 1: Gamble responsibly if you or someone you care has a,

750
00:36:00,480 --> 00:36:03,839
Speaker 1: gambling problem help is available twenty four to seven at

751
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 1: one Eight hundred gambler