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Speaker 1: I mentioned our guest is Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at

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Speaker 1: Interactive Brokers. So Steve, we'll get to the FED in

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Speaker 1: a moment. This has to be kind of frustrating for

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Speaker 1: the Bears, the overall action on a day like today.

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Speaker 1: The market did have every excuse to sell off with

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Speaker 1: the salesforce news and Nvidio never mind Powell, but he didn't.

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Speaker 1: I know, it's just today, but could it be more

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Speaker 1: than that? Um, good morning, Brian. Yeah, I never want

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Speaker 1: to rule out any alternatives that that. That's that's something

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Speaker 1: I that's a lesson I learned the hard way is

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Speaker 1: be prepared for anything, especially when you're talking about a

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Speaker 1: low volume, late summer environment. Um. You know, one of

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Speaker 1: the old sayings is don't short adult tape, and you know,

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Speaker 1: that's kind of what we had today. Volumes have been

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Speaker 1: very light and people are mostly on the sidelines, are

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Speaker 1: waiting a momentous piece of news. So if you if

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Speaker 1: people aren't selling, what's what's the logical move? Well, let's

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Speaker 1: try buying. And that's I think what we saw today.

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Speaker 1: Despite the various stories that you saw that you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, all right, Well, looking at this also, Steve

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Speaker 1: I mean, as the old adage goes go and may

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Speaker 1: come back on Labor Day. Labor days is a week

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Speaker 1: in a bit of way. So is that when we

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Speaker 1: get a return to property of volumes and the like.

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Speaker 1: Because at the moment, of course, every move is kind of,

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Speaker 1: I suppose exaggerated given what's happening in terms of the

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Speaker 1: number of people participating. Oh yeah, rashot, Absolutely, I would

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Speaker 1: expect things to come back. You know, let's say Labor

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Speaker 1: Day is the fifth called the six or seven, We'll

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Speaker 1: start to see people back at their deaths and and

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Speaker 1: and trading away. You know, the markets now are much

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Speaker 1: more democratic, so it's not it's not the same way

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Speaker 1: they used to be in terms of you know, everybody

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Speaker 1: left and individuals didn't make up a big part um.

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Speaker 1: Individuals do take up do make a larger part. You know, electronics,

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Speaker 1: you know, algorithmic strategies that don't necessarily require as many people.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, you still don't. You still get those lighter volumes,

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Speaker 1: that lack of activity. But that and that that brings

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say volatility, because the market hasn't been

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Speaker 1: all that vulnable, but it brings the possibility of sharp

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Speaker 1: moves coming out of nowhere, which is one of which

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Speaker 1: we saw late this afternoon. And we should remember we

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Speaker 1: are still in a bear market, perhaps until we get

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Speaker 1: above the two day moving average. I think we've come

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Speaker 1: back about almost half of what we gave up from

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Speaker 1: last week. But I wanted to ask you about Bullard

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Speaker 1: because you know, we're journalists, so we look between the

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Speaker 1: lines on some of these things. He said inflation could

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Speaker 1: stay higher for longer, more than Wall Street or the

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Speaker 1: market thinks. Now, the notion is one thing, but do

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Speaker 1: people really want Fed presidents openly talking about what the

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Speaker 1: market should or should not be doing? Um? Yeah, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, let's break that apart, you know, to answer

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Speaker 1: the to answer the main thrust to your question, I

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Speaker 1: don't think the markets I want to be told by

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Speaker 1: the by the Fed governors what they should be thinking,

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Speaker 1: particularly when that's thinking, you know, sort of is it

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Speaker 1: odds with what they want to happen? I mean, I

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Speaker 1: think the market, you know, really wants the Fed to blink,

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Speaker 1: you know, and at the slightest and at the slightest,

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Speaker 1: you know, slightest opportunity that that could happen. We rally,

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Speaker 1: which is what we saw after the the f MC meeting. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, so I don't think I don't think traders

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Speaker 1: like you know, being scolded or you know, we're talked

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Speaker 1: to in that manner, but obviously not too much because

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Speaker 1: you know, because we're just going to do what we're

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Speaker 1: gonna do. Anyway. Yeah, this is it. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's got to the point where and Mark is al

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Speaker 1: really nervous at the beginning this week or investors, I

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Speaker 1: should say, Um, And then as we've got closer to

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Speaker 1: this speech, it seems just that the going out what

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Speaker 1: it is, what it is, and we'll carry them the

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Speaker 1: way we are. So what do you think the most

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Speaker 1: dominant thing is after monetary policy for investors. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: I think monetary policies in first place. It's also in

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Speaker 1: second place, in third place. Um. You Ultimately it does.

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Speaker 1: Ultimately it does involve earnings, and we are going to

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Speaker 1: come back to it. You know. One of the one

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Speaker 1: of the reasons why we did bounce. Um. You know,

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Speaker 1: let's say in the last month or two, it was

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna say great earnings, were good enough earnings

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Speaker 1: And you know, ultimately, for equity investors, you have to

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Speaker 1: have earnings, things that market to participants are concerned about,

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Speaker 1: interest rates, interest rates and interest rates, Steve, it's got

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Speaker 1: to be a fourth purely. But let's just let's just

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Speaker 1: just take a look at what's how this year has

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Speaker 1: evolved from huge geopolitical affears of what's going on, which

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Speaker 1: have receded to somewhat somewhat remained sanguine for the US investor,

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Speaker 1: at least that we've seen quite a shift, haven't we.

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Speaker 1: Whereas Europe itself it's still got to deal with this

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Speaker 1: and it's dealing with things in the winter that perhaps

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Speaker 1: they were never really thinking about before. Yeah, I mean

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Speaker 1: that's you know, that's sort of a you know, a

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Speaker 1: unique feature of US investors is that we're quite good

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Speaker 1: at ignoring things and in the rest of the world

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Speaker 1: that are in convenient where we feel like it, and

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Speaker 1: I think we were really not appreciating, Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: the potential for a slowdown that can be driven out

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Speaker 1: of Europe and out of China. Um. You know, you've

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Speaker 1: got if you want to think of, you know, sort

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Speaker 1: of the three main pillars of the stool, it's it's

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Speaker 1: it's Europe, Asia and North America. Well, two out of

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Speaker 1: three are not looking all that good. Um, you know,

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Speaker 1: but I think we're sort of reveling in the idea

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Speaker 1: that we're you know, to coin the phrase that the

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Speaker 1: you know, the the cleanest dirty shirt and in the

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Speaker 1: hamper um. And that's kind of that's kind of the

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Speaker 1: problem we had, the well not a problem. That's kind

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Speaker 1: of the way we're going about it now is I

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Speaker 1: think we're we feel insulated from the world's problems, at

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Speaker 1: least for the time being. One of the points that

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Speaker 1: I highlighted in the data check at the top of

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Speaker 1: the hour was the outperformance of industrials and materials and

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Speaker 1: transports here um in the past little period of time. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And because it's tempting to think that, well, the Chinese

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Speaker 1: economy is slowing, Europe is you know, looking like recession

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Speaker 1: in the US is slowing. But if these industrial type

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Speaker 1: firms are doing well, does that suggest that maybe at

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Speaker 1: least some people are seeing underlying strength there. Um, that's

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Speaker 1: the conclusion we have to take. And I look, let's

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Speaker 1: at the Russell two thousand, where you have small caps

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Speaker 1: that you know that are often much you know, more

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Speaker 1: economically sensitive, being smaller firms are less insulated, you know,

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Speaker 1: the Russell two thousand actually you know, did manage to

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Speaker 1: sneak above its two D day moving average at one point. Um.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, you know, that's part of the bet that

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Speaker 1: the market is making is that somehow we're going to

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Speaker 1: be able to thread this needle, uh, you know, while

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Speaker 1: keeping inflation and check and avoiding any sort of major recession.

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Speaker 1: And you know, and let's say, sort of steer the

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Speaker 1: ship through a very narrow through a very narrow channel. Um.

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Speaker 1: If that's true, that's wonderful. My fear is that, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's sort of the equivalent of a parlay or an

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Speaker 1: accumulator back where you know, a lot of things have

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Speaker 1: to go right and there's a huge payoff if they do,

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Speaker 1: but you know, one little aspect of it can can

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Speaker 1: trip you up and and and ruin your ruin your

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Speaker 1: chances are getting paid off. Now, Steve, I'm rather intrigued

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Speaker 1: by what you've been talking about in the notes that

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Speaker 1: you said to us, and it says if you can't

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Speaker 1: if you can't spot the sucker, well it's all about

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Speaker 1: you telling you is maybe not telling us who the

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Speaker 1: sucker is here, but tell us about the cool options

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Speaker 1: and social media and meme stocks and that what you've

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Speaker 1: been gleaning from all that. Yeah, well, you know, thank

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Speaker 1: thanks for bringing that up. The the problem here was,

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Speaker 1: you know, the bed bath and beyond saga was was

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Speaker 1: I think you know one that they're going to be

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Speaker 1: doing case studies about for years. Um. And essentially you

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Speaker 1: had you know, one insider by Tempered basically tener cent

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Speaker 1: of the company around March that got the stock moving

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Speaker 1: up from about fifteen to thirty. But he was long

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Speaker 1: at about third fifteen and change watch to go to five.

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Speaker 1: Normal people, if you have if you buy a big

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Speaker 1: slug of stock at fifteen and watch your go to five,

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Speaker 1: well what do you do? You kick it out or

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Speaker 1: you've got to help the fundamentals work out. But if

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Speaker 1: you're if you have a huge social media following, you

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Speaker 1: could sort of rekindle enthusiasm, get the call options moving,

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Speaker 1: buy stocks and not by in this case, you bought

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Speaker 1: options in a sort of way designed to draw attention

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Speaker 1: to yourself, which is not what most insiders do, and

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Speaker 1: that creates a self fulfilling frenzy in the midst of it. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know the RC Ventures was the company here. Once

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Speaker 1: the stock got moving, um, they kind of did a

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Speaker 1: masterful thing. When they buy, they tend to use Schedule

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Speaker 1: thirteen D, which which is reported almost instantaneously when they sold,

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Speaker 1: they used four. So on August fourteenth he announced his

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Speaker 1: intention to sell his shares. The world didn't see it

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Speaker 1: until August seventeen. Meanwhile, starting August sixteen, probably when the

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Speaker 1: ink was dry, he started selling on the sixteenth and

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Speaker 1: he was out from eight sold from eighteen up to

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Speaker 1: twenty nine basically, And so who was the sucker? There

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Speaker 1: was all the people buying on the social media frenzy

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Speaker 1: now and and oh and then by the way, they

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Speaker 1: hired a restructuring attorney after the after all the shares

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Speaker 1: were sold. That kind of you know, that's the problem.

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Speaker 1: And you're saying as well that you know, it's like

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Speaker 1: they're not people are not learning from this because Game Stop,

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Speaker 1: which Ryan Cohen also has a big portion of stock in, uh,

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Speaker 1: basically hasn't hasn't tanked. No, that's the thing is you

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Speaker 1: know what the problem I have here is he's you know,

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Speaker 1: he's already shown that you know, you that the individual

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Speaker 1: investor is a source of liquidity for him. Now people

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Speaker 1: but people, you know, they're lured by the prospect of

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Speaker 1: being profitable, of making money, and so that's enticing, and

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Speaker 1: so it's you know, agreed over fear. But at some

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Speaker 1: point you have to realize that, you know, there's someone

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Speaker 1: else pulling the strings. And while you can do wonderfully

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Speaker 1: if if you're early and right the most part, if

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Speaker 1: you're buying it once the enthusiasm is started, you've got

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Speaker 1: to be careful that you know that that this is

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Speaker 1: probably not organic anymore. There's you know, there's certain people

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Speaker 1: with a vested interest in getting these stocks moving. And

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Speaker 1: if you don't think you're one of those people who's

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Speaker 1: controlling the vested interest, well then you're the source of liquidity.

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Speaker 1: Hence why I said, you know, if you don't know

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Speaker 1: who the sucker is at the poker table, well exactly,

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Speaker 1: and you know it's if you're the last to know,

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Speaker 1: it's probably you. Anyway. Now, the thing is, Steve, you

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Speaker 1: did say something rather interesting. It just sort of almost

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Speaker 1: brings up a lacuna in regulations. You know, if you

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Speaker 1: buy a stock and you have to immediately report it

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Speaker 1: in one way, surely you should have the same principle

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Speaker 1: apply to when you sell it. Yeah, I mean, well

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Speaker 1: I will say that he did it promptly. It was

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Speaker 1: really the next day. But what we saw when he

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Speaker 1: bought a big slog of Game Stop earlier this year,

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Speaker 1: he reported that day, there's a little leeway in the rules.

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Speaker 1: You what, I'm not accusing him of any ill reality.

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Speaker 1: Let me let me be very clear about that he

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Speaker 1: did it within the rules. But um, you know, in

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Speaker 1: one of my notes, in one of my comments, I

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Speaker 1: said it was a master class and how to you know,

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Speaker 1: play securities filings because you know, the when it was

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Speaker 1: helpful to get a moving he used. I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: say one set of rules that's not fair, but one

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Speaker 1: set of behaviors. And when he was selling he did

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Speaker 1: his best to office skate. Granted, if I was trying

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Speaker 1: to move ten percent of a company, um, I would

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Speaker 1: be as quiet as I could pee about it. Um,

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Speaker 1: But the fact that he's loud on the way in

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Speaker 1: and quiet on the way out the I let me

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Speaker 1: just say that if I were the sec I'd be

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Speaker 1: taking a look and seeing where where there might be

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Speaker 1: holes in the in the regulatory framework that can be um,

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Speaker 1: you know, coked over. Let's call it okay, Steve, We've

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Speaker 1: got to go. Thanks, very much, nice long session with you. Steve,

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Speaker 1: chief strategist at Interactive Brokers,