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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman of the Action Network. I'm in

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Speaker 1: our Action Network studio, but it is a Tommy John studio.

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Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my cost my companion, mikem

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Speaker 1: Padre might be a FF professional vetter, Simon Hunter.

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Speaker 2: Ed O Simon, and I am in my Tommy John studio.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, Tommy John, my brother.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, to see you one day closer. Today is a

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Speaker 1: big episode. It's our super Bowl Trends episode with our

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Speaker 1: favorite director of research and Favorites mainstay, the man who

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Speaker 1: signs jerseys at our live events, Evan Abrams. Will bring

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Speaker 1: him on in a second. Next Tuesday, We've got Chris

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Speaker 1: Raybond and Sean Cerner around to discuss their favorite props.

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Speaker 1: And then Thursday, we will of course nailed and discuss

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Speaker 1: our best bets with Brandon Anderson, who crushed it all

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Speaker 1: season long on the Sunday episode of the Action Network

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Speaker 1: Pod with Evan. His hot reads were always two bets

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Speaker 1: that I religiously made. We're gonna give it our Foxhole,

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Speaker 1: our Tommy John big Balls Simon's Biggest Bets will play

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Speaker 1: scoot Roulette all that jazz.

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Speaker 3: The road to the super Bowl is long and pointless.

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Speaker 3: I mean, when do you think about it? Football is

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Speaker 3: so great, but now the two conference champs must survive

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Speaker 3: a harrowing bye week that no one enjoys five weeks.

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Speaker 2: Bronco Negersky didn't get no bye weeks and now he's dead.

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Speaker 1: Well maybe they were a good thing for now, we

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Speaker 1: got to focus on the trends. As a reminder, the

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Speaker 1: Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three six five and

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Speaker 1: now new Bet three six five. Customers get one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars,

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Speaker 1: sign up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place

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Speaker 1: a bet for five dollars to get one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be

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Speaker 1: used on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever

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Speaker 1: the moment, It's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

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Speaker 1: restrictions apply. All right, we're going to skip sharp calls

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Speaker 1: this week as well. We did a little bit of

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Speaker 1: it on Tuesday. We'll dig in more when we're closer

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Speaker 1: to the game a week from today. First, let's bring

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Speaker 1: in Evan Abrams.

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Speaker 4: Director of research.

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Speaker 1: He's got all the trends, all the data, everything that

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Speaker 1: we rely on so much during the season. Evan is

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Speaker 1: going to lay it out for us in one big palette.

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Speaker 1: Let's go, brother, give me your first best trend.

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Speaker 4: Well, first of all, Chad, Hi, how are you This?

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Speaker 4: This one panders directly to you, though, So we started

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Speaker 4: off with our biggest contract.

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Speaker 1: Like, by the way, there's only one person who likes

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Speaker 1: pandering more than me. I'm not going to make it

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Speaker 1: a political show, but we all know who gets Well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, we're here to kind of teasey a little bit

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Speaker 4: because this is the one you're going to You've been

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Speaker 4: really looking for, so only betting the best teams is

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Speaker 4: something you kind of talk about all the time this year,

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Speaker 4: you're talking about it with the Chiefs and the Eagles,

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Speaker 4: which is a ticket you had in the preseason them

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Speaker 4: meeting in the Super Bowl. Yeah, but this is an

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Speaker 4: interesting thing and I think it says a little bit

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Speaker 4: more about the current state of the NFL. Let's call

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Speaker 4: it the last decade. So Chad talked a lot about

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Speaker 4: taking the strategy of all twelve to one teams or

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Speaker 4: shorter in terms of Super Bowl favorites and taking a

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Speaker 4: round robin approach. So so I spoke with Matt and

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Speaker 4: basically we dope and we dived into this. So I

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Speaker 4: just want to start there and say, if you're feeling bold,

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Speaker 4: and every August for the last ten years, you bet

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Speaker 4: every single combination of teams at twelve to one or

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Speaker 4: shorter to win, basically parlayed all the conference title odds

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Speaker 4: combos in that span. It's won four times in sixty

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Speaker 4: seven total combinations. Now, that would be this year's Chiefs

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Speaker 4: and Eagles, Chiefs Niners, Chiefs, Bucks and Pats Rams. That's

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Speaker 4: the four times it's hit Now of the sixty seven

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Speaker 4: total combos, we've had four winners. So we've had sixty

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Speaker 4: three losers at one unit per bet. The four winners

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Speaker 4: paid about eighty four units minus to sixty three losers.

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Speaker 4: You'd be up about twenty one units doing this round

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Speaker 4: robin strategy last decade. Now, what if you weren't feeling

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Speaker 4: so bold, what about just straight flat betting every twelve

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Speaker 4: to one team or shorter. So over the last decade,

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Speaker 4: that's fifty six total teams, so fifty six bets. It's

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Speaker 4: won nine times, including this year, and it's lost forty

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Speaker 4: seven times. So with Casey or Philly pending, the eight

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Speaker 4: winners paid out sixty five units minus to forty seven

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Speaker 4: losing bets. If you did this blind, you'd be up

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Speaker 4: about eighteen units holding the Philly and KC tickets now

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Speaker 4: for what it's worth as well. And this is just

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Speaker 4: obviously more about the current state of the NFL twenty fourteen,

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Speaker 4: which is one year back of this sample size. New

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Speaker 4: England plus six fifty one at all, twenty thirteen, Seattle

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Speaker 4: eight to one, one at all. Now, twenty twelve is

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Speaker 4: where we get a string of long shots, starting with

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Speaker 4: Baltimore who wanted eighteen to one. But basically since that

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Speaker 4: twenty thirteen year, we have consistently seen the Brady's, the

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Speaker 4: Mahomes and just the favorites every single year, Chad. So

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Speaker 4: your strategy so far, so good?

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Speaker 1: Well, really, Evan, I can only claim that it's your

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Speaker 1: strategy because I basically just did what you told me

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Speaker 1: to do, because I believe the stat is And now

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Speaker 1: it's eleven of the past twelve seasons the teams who

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Speaker 1: had odds of twelve to one or less were in

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. They were the matchup.

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Speaker 4: No, so it's the super Bowl champion. A bunch of

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Speaker 4: those years you had the other team in the mix.

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Speaker 4: So only four times last decade have both teams actually

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Speaker 4: fit your trend where both were twelve to one or

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Speaker 4: shorter in the Super Bowl odds and we basically had

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Speaker 4: to parlay their conference odds. Does that make sense because

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Speaker 4: you're basically taking every team that's twelve to one or

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Speaker 4: shorter to win the Super Bowl yep, and then you're

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Speaker 4: taking their conference odds, parlaying them together and basically getting

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Speaker 4: a ticket where yours was like twenty eight to one. Right, yes, yeah,

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Speaker 4: so this one I believe was like twenty seven to

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Speaker 4: one using these odds, but basically you'd be around those units.

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Speaker 4: But truthfully, I mean, I'm curious what Simon thinks like

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Speaker 4: because everyone loves these long shots and basically it hasn't

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Speaker 4: hit up one year in the past twelve or thirteen

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Speaker 4: years in the NFL, and this is a one game

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Speaker 4: sample when you're not even dealing with a series. It's

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Speaker 4: it's to honestly a little bit crazy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: My view I think ivan to agree with this is

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Speaker 2: I take long shots the hedge and I've missed the

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Speaker 2: two best ones in the last four or five years.

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Speaker 2: I missed on the Bengals one hundred and fifty to one,

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Speaker 2: and I obviously missed on the Commanders this year. One

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Speaker 2: hundred and fifty one. That's that's a position, right, that's

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Speaker 2: where you want to go. You want to take those

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Speaker 2: type of bets. You know, this a great one this

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Speaker 2: upcoming year. I fucking hate us Chad for saying that.

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Speaker 2: I guess who's one hundred and one right now or

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Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty to one, I should say Panthers.

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Speaker 2: So you think they can make the next step they

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Speaker 2: get the right guys, that's the type of team you

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Speaker 2: gotta do. You got to you gotta do it on

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Speaker 2: a team that no one believes in the Joe Burrow one.

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Speaker 2: That was a flucush one, right, he's coming off a

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Speaker 2: knee injury after his rookie year. The Commanders one, obviously

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Speaker 2: no one saw coming, right. I didn't see too many

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Speaker 2: people flashing their one hundred and fifty one tickets they had.

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Speaker 2: I know that one guy had uh was at circle.

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Speaker 2: I forget what book it was. It was basically bet

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Speaker 2: two k to win five hundred k on the Commanders

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Speaker 2: didn't come through. I'm sure that pro headed it out,

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Speaker 2: but yeah, what happens telling you right now is the

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Speaker 2: league has gotten not we want to say stale, but

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Speaker 2: it kind of has. Right. It's the top dogs, and

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Speaker 2: even coming this year, Chad was going through his list

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Speaker 2: and I was like, I wouldn't put Houston on that one, right.

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Speaker 2: I remember saying the child was like, don't don't do Houston.

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Speaker 2: Stay away from them, and I just don't think they

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Speaker 2: have the pieces. And I think I also gave him

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Speaker 2: bad advice too. I said I wouldn't do the Lions

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Speaker 2: coming to this year. I thought there was too much

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Speaker 2: bad juju after they blew that lead with golf the

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Speaker 2: year before. The forty nine Ers got very lucky that

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Speaker 2: one worked out because for a minute the midway through

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Speaker 2: the season, I was like, I just cost Chad a

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Speaker 2: ton of money. The Lions are a juggernaut. So I'm

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Speaker 2: with you on that, Evan. I would love to hear

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Speaker 2: what you have on Patrick. Mahomes actually gave out a

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Speaker 2: trend I thought was a good one that I was

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Speaker 2: wrong on my man. Evan helped me out. I thought

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Speaker 2: Mahomes was fifty to zero on Dome games. He is

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Speaker 2: fourteen oh one in Dome games. So still pre insane frience.

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Speaker 2: I know we got we gotta be truth by they'll

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Speaker 2: correct ourselves. Fourteen oh one Mahomes and Dome games in

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Speaker 2: his career are pretty.

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Speaker 4: Insane, absolutely insane, and yeah, let me these are the

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Speaker 4: stats to me when you talk about Mahomes in the

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl, they I was talking about this before we

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Speaker 4: even went live here. They feel all made up like

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Speaker 4: this Legit feels like you put that stat out there

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Speaker 4: where someone's like twenty five and two and everyone you

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Speaker 4: know thinks you're making it up. It's just ridiculous. So

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Speaker 4: let me just kind of go through some of these.

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Speaker 4: In January February, Mahomes has played eighteen games at home

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Speaker 4: or on a neutral field, He's sixteen and two straight

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Speaker 4: up his losses against Burrow and Brady. If you throw

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Speaker 4: in November and December, he's forty four and six straight up.

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Speaker 4: Just the playoffs, Mahomes has been an underdog or a

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Speaker 4: favorite under a field goal eight times. He's eight and

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Speaker 4: no straight up and ats in those games. Now, when

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Speaker 4: you talk about on the field success and basically these

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Speaker 4: games where maybe it's gone back and forth a little bit,

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Speaker 4: Mahomes has trailed in the fourth quarter or overtime nine

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Speaker 4: total playoff games. He's won six forced overtime in two

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Speaker 4: of those games. Mahomes has played twenty games in the playoffs.

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Speaker 4: He's seventeen and three straight up eighty five percent minimum

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Speaker 4: ten games in the playoffs starts. That win percentage is

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Speaker 4: second best since nineteen fifty behind just bart Starr, who

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Speaker 4: is nine and one just ten playoff games.

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Speaker 1: And I'll remind, as I did on Tuesday, because I

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Speaker 1: think Simon gave this out on Tuesday, bart Starr is

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Speaker 1: the only quarterback to go three straight because remember he

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Speaker 1: had an NFL championship and then they won those first

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Speaker 1: two Super Bowls. So that's that's the company. He's keeping

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Speaker 1: on that one.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, just trophies, troph trophy names. At this point, it's

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Speaker 4: ridiculous he's winning Hallis because you know he's meeting Alice.

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Speaker 4: It's stupid. Let's look at his entire career away from home.

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Speaker 4: Mahomes have started twenty six games away from home as

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Speaker 4: either an underdog or a favorite of three points or

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Speaker 4: less twenty one four and one against a spread eighty

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Speaker 4: four percent in those games. I'll say that one again

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Speaker 4: because that's actually ridiculous. Entire career away from home, twenty

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Speaker 4: six games away from home as an underdog or a

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Speaker 4: favorite of three or less twenty one four and one

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Speaker 4: eighty four percent.

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Speaker 1: And then Christ Simon, we are just so setting ourselves

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Speaker 1: up to be crushingly humiliated like they. You know, it's

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Speaker 1: like we are not the people who lean into stats

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Speaker 1: like these when it is the higher profile quarterback and

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Speaker 1: the favorite. It's just not who we are. We are

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Speaker 1: the people who can't go three weeks without mentioning in

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Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers, even when the Panthers haven't played in

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Speaker 1: a month. Like the fact that we have invested the

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Speaker 1: way we have on Patrick Mahomes is just teeing us

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Speaker 1: up to be on the wrong side. I just got it.

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Speaker 1: I have to say. I have to say that out loud.

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Speaker 1: Do you feel I am now mushing us? Are you

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Speaker 1: with me when you hear these things? Like when I

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Speaker 1: hear these things, that makes me uncomfortable, doesn't make me

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Speaker 1: feel better about my position.

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Speaker 2: No, I only worry about you mushing regular season playoff.

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Speaker 2: I don't think you can mush it. There's too much

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Speaker 2: going on in the playoffs for Chad's mush. But no,

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Speaker 2: we talked about, like Evan said on the top of

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Speaker 2: the show, these stats don't sound real when you talk

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Speaker 2: about homes because we've never seen it before. And it's

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Speaker 2: what we keep talking about. The models don't get it right.

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Speaker 2: Computer models can't get it because it's it doesn't sound

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Speaker 2: real what he does. And it's the same thing with Brady,

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Speaker 2: like you're getting a once in a lifetime generational talent

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Speaker 2: that just breaks all the rules, all the trends, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: just hearing these numbers. Even like Evan, even though he

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Speaker 2: told us these don't sound real but they're real, they

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Speaker 2: still don't sound real, right. The fact that he is

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Speaker 2: just reading off all these stats where it's twenty one

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Speaker 2: and four, eight and oh, sixteen and two. It's like,

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Speaker 2: holy shit, man, this kid is just so incredible. Twenty

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Speaker 2: nine years old too, only twenty nine.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that one away from home is as an underdog,

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Speaker 1: is ub sir.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, he's agreed.

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Speaker 4: He's the grim Reaper and everyone kind of talks about

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Speaker 4: it in these situations. But when you're winning like that

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Speaker 4: neutral and away, and you know, even his losses and

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Speaker 4: it's weird you look at him most some of them

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Speaker 4: are home, they're just eggs. Sometimes during the regular season,

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Speaker 4: when he goes away from home, he becomes a killer.

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Speaker 3: Great teams aren't always great, they're just great when they

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Speaker 3: have to do.

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Speaker 4: And that's why those records seem so crazy. I told

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Speaker 4: this to Simon and Okay, so he's five and zero

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Speaker 4: neutral field, which we get, I mean the Super Bowls,

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Speaker 4: plus he's played there in other situations. But the thing

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Speaker 4: that's crazy about it is twenty eighteen. And this is

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Speaker 4: the stat that kind of blows me away. So since

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Speaker 4: twenty eighteen, entering the fourth quarter overtime down one possession,

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Speaker 4: one to eight points, Chiefs have had twelve drives. They've

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Speaker 4: scored on eleven of them, eleven of twelve drives down

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Speaker 4: one score, They've scored eleven times out of twelve drives

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Speaker 4: twenty eighteen in the playoffs, all other teams are like

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Speaker 4: five of eleven, three of nine, two of nine. I mean,

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Speaker 4: he's doing things even when trailing. That's just absolutely ridiculous.

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Speaker 4: So that's my Mahomes stat. That's why.

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Speaker 1: That's why you with him, is because you have to

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Speaker 1: because of that exact scenario. We say it all the time,

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Speaker 1: announcers say it. It's become cliche, but it's true. At

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Speaker 1: the end of the game, do you want to be

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Speaker 1: on Patrick Mahomes or against Patrick Mahomes if he has

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Speaker 1: the ball in his hand and they need to score

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Speaker 1: to win. That's it. That's how you're betting this game,

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Speaker 1: you know what I mean. It's just it is asurd.

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Speaker 1: I can't say it enough.

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Speaker 4: And that was definitely part of the analysis against Buffalo.

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Speaker 4: I mean, to be fair, a lot else happened in

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Speaker 4: that game, but in the end, I mean, he was

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Speaker 4: stone cold. And the other one we can talk about

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Speaker 4: with Mahomes but also has to do with Andy Reid

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Speaker 4: is basically rest. I mean, we know how good Andy

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Speaker 4: Reid is, but the combo together is actually pretty crazy,

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Speaker 4: and it's another stat which just feels made up. But

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Speaker 4: during the season, Mahomes has played thirty four games on

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Speaker 4: extended rest since twenty nineteen, so that's basically eight days

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Speaker 4: or more. So it's not like a Sunday to Sunday.

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Speaker 4: It would be more than that. He's one thirty of

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Speaker 4: those thirty four games straight up. So thirty and four

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Speaker 4: losses to Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O'Connell

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Speaker 4: again one Jalen Hurts, which is funny, but thirty and

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Speaker 4: four just absolutely stupid stuff.

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Speaker 1: Our Bet three six ' five Super Bowl Prop contest

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Speaker 1: is still accepting submissions. If you want to see your

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00:15:22,120 --> 00:15:25,040
Speaker 1: custom bet on Bet three sixty five, email your top

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl prop ideas to podcasts. There's an at the

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Speaker 1: end of that podcasts at actionnetwork dot com. You must

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00:15:33,320 --> 00:15:37,160
Speaker 1: adhere to State Gaming Commission rules, which basically means every

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00:15:37,200 --> 00:15:39,840
Speaker 1: part of the bet has to be settled on the

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Speaker 1: field to play on the field. In the box score,

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Speaker 1: the winning submissions often have a clever name, like the

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Speaker 1: Broctopus or the Millennium Falcon that's from the Matt Ryan

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl winner gets an Action Network prize the chance

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Speaker 1: to come out of the show talk to me and

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Speaker 1: Simon about it. The pick will go live on the

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Speaker 1: BET three six ' five website. Admissions are open until Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Podcasts at actionnetwork dot com.

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Speaker 5: That is, today's final warnings.

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Speaker 1: Must be in today. All right, Evan, By the way,

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Speaker 1: you have one job make me and Silent feel better,

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Speaker 1: so don't make me feel bad.

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Speaker 4: Well, okay, so some of this information. I'm just a

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Speaker 4: man who delivers, all right. I don't fully love everything,

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Speaker 4: but I think some of the numbers on some of

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Speaker 4: these are interesting. So let's give you one trend and

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Speaker 4: let's see your thoughts on it, because I think you

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Speaker 4: and I, especially in all the shows that you and

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Speaker 4: I have done together, sample size is something that's important

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Speaker 4: of a lot of these. So last Sunday, the Eagles

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Speaker 4: rolled Washington and the Chiefs had a close win against Buffalo.

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Speaker 4: So the question is is there anything we can glean

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Speaker 4: from that? So the Eagles scored fifty five points in

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Speaker 4: the Conference championship, the most in that round in NFL history.

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Speaker 4: Only two other teams have scored more than forty five

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Speaker 4: points in a conference championship. Bills did it in ninety

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Speaker 4: one and then lost the Super Bowl. Panthers did it

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Speaker 4: in twenty sixteen, then also lost the Super Bowl. So

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Speaker 4: ten total teams have scored forty plus points in a

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Speaker 4: conference championship game. They're three and seven in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: So another one and I'll add on top of it,

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Speaker 4: and then I'll get your thought, which is Eagles beat

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Speaker 4: the Commanders by thirty two points. Teams win by double

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Speaker 4: digits in a conference championship round facing a team who

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Speaker 4: did not three and six straight up and against the

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Speaker 4: spread super Bowl since two thousand, failing to cover by

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Speaker 4: nine point five points per game, which would tell you

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Speaker 4: they're probably a bigger favorite in that spot, which I

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Speaker 4: could look back and look. But if you're winning by

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Speaker 4: double digits and then you're an underdog in the game,

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Speaker 4: that probably doesn't happen often, but to me, it does

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Speaker 4: probably speak on a little bit of competition. So I'll

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Speaker 4: get your thoughts on that and then we can kind

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Speaker 4: of move on. But both both of those trends kind

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Speaker 4: of telling you that the conference championship is a little

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Speaker 4: bit of a hold on weight.

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Speaker 1: Before you act quick, yeah, exc I mean you go ahead.

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Speaker 2: I agree with it, Like just theve not knowing those trends,

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Speaker 2: just the thinking of it. It's like, how often do

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Speaker 2: we see a team play their best game of the

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Speaker 2: year and then totally have a letdown the following game, Right,

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Speaker 2: It's just every one game you go from everything is

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Speaker 2: going perfectly the well, everything's moving smoothly, you're getting turnovers,

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Speaker 2: you're scoring tons of touchdowns, not kicking field goals, and

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Speaker 2: then the next week everything feels harder, right like it.

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Speaker 2: You know, my buddy I went to the book with

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Speaker 2: he was on Washington. He turns to me, after that

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Speaker 2: first drive that Washington had, he said was exactly what

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Speaker 2: Brady was saying. Everything felt like it was so much

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Speaker 2: harder on that first drive than it was against Detroit.

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Speaker 2: They did to earn every yard than it was against Detroit.

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Speaker 2: And that's how football can be, right, do you have

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Speaker 2: the right match with the right team, it can be easy,

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Speaker 2: and once you get once, it feels easy and you

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Speaker 2: have confidence. It's the opposite for the other team, right,

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Speaker 2: they're losing a confidence and they see how hard it

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Speaker 2: is to stop you. That's that's it to me. What

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Speaker 2: really stands up there was the Eagles are coming off

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Speaker 2: their easiest game in my opinion, I've ever seen them play, right,

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Speaker 2: I've never seen them dominate that game. Obviously, football hasn't easy.

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Speaker 2: It's the most points scored in a conference championship game.

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Speaker 2: So I think that's what Evan's kind of telling you people.

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Speaker 2: It's like Eagles just have the best game of their life.

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Speaker 2: You expect them to have a letdown game and then

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Speaker 2: going to get some Mahomes team. They're just strays and arrow,

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Speaker 2: same old Mahomes win and by three, close game and

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Speaker 2: one in the fourth quarter. That wasn't their best game, right,

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Speaker 2: that was just another Mahomes India Reid game. So that's

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Speaker 2: what I'm definitely taking away from what Evans telling us there.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I also take away from it. During the regular season,

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Speaker 1: it's almost like an auto fade on the team that

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Speaker 1: wins by you know, four plus touchdown, you immediately want

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Speaker 1: to look in the other direction.

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Speaker 2: Now, again to Evan, unless it's Detroit during the regular season.

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Speaker 1: Right exactly to Evans point, Normally that team the next

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Speaker 1: week is a huge favorite. They're not an underdog. So

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Speaker 1: there was a little bit of a difference here, But

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Speaker 1: to me, it actually speaks to that there is an

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Speaker 1: opportunity this team is at the top of the market.

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Speaker 1: I wonder if this game opens with the Chiefs as

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Speaker 1: even bigger favorites. Maybe they are two point favorites if

396
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Speaker 1: the Eagles don't crush the Commanders the way they do,

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Speaker 1: especially because the Commanders were the public side in that game,

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Speaker 1: So the people who were betting on the Commanders are

399
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Speaker 1: going to see the Eagles as being even better then

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Speaker 1: they might have believed they were. That you know, you

401
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Speaker 1: might even be getting half a point of value from

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Speaker 1: a bookmaker point of view on the Chiefs right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, speaking of the Eagles, do you have any trends

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Speaker 2: about them after the buye week of Oh?

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Speaker 4: Man, So this one's just strange, and I think a

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Speaker 4: little bit of momentum has something to do with this one.

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Speaker 4: But let me lay it out. So, the Chiefs had

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Speaker 4: a bye week entering the playoffs, the Eagles didn't play

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Speaker 4: in the wildcard round. How much impact has the buye

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Speaker 4: been even this late into the playoffs entering the Super

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Speaker 4: Bowl and obviously been playing for two plus weeks already.

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Speaker 4: In the Super Bowl era, teams that had a buy

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Speaker 4: entering the playoffs facing a team who did play in

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Speaker 4: the wildcard game or who did not have a by

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Speaker 4: four and twelve straight up two thirteen and one against

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Speaker 4: the spread, which would be very, very bad for the

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Speaker 4: bye week Chiefs in that situation. I think the thing

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Speaker 4: you can only really glean from this is that, like

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Speaker 4: taking that buy doesn't give you as much momentum, because

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Speaker 4: we talk about momentum entering a Super Bowl a lot,

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Speaker 4: but to me, this one just feels like some weird noise.

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Speaker 4: I don't know what to make of.

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Speaker 1: It feels like weird noise. It feels like there shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be a momentum factor because both teams are getting two

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Speaker 1: weeks of rest and yeah, you know, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's not a huge sample set, but it's the only one.

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Speaker 1: It's the only one that we have. I don't know

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Speaker 1: that the next twenty six times this happens, it won't

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Speaker 1: be flipped.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Back to make sense of it, and my view of

432
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 2: it is football is all about rhythm and timing. So

433
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 2: the Chiefs here have played what two games are their

434
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 2: starter is now going to be for a month and

435
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,320
Speaker 2: a half. Yeah yeah, so that to me that does

436
00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 2: add up to a or you know, that is a

437
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,800
Speaker 2: big deal that you have a week off play two

438
00:22:03,840 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 2: games and you have another week off, so that that

439
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 2: definitely is gonna be a part of it.

440
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 4: Right.

441
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 2: The team's just not in a rhythm, not in sync.

442
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 2: But what Chad just mentioned here is, you know, Mahomes,

443
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 2: they're always in rhythm, right. It just when you watch

444
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 2: him play, even last year against the forty nine ers,

445
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:20,200
Speaker 2: he was in a rhythm for that whole first half.

446
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 2: Once he got a rhythm in that game, it totally

447
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,640
Speaker 2: flipped the switch. Once he gets going. I don't think

448
00:22:25,640 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 2: they punted the rest of the game right once he

449
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,800
Speaker 2: got going against the foreigners defense. So that that to me,

450
00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:32,439
Speaker 2: if that makes sense when you break it down like that,

451
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,719
Speaker 2: then yeah, these teams come out of rhythm. They're not,

452
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 2: you know, not not ready for that game speed because

453
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 2: they've just been practicing against themselves and not going full speed.

454
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 2: But we talk all the time, Mahomes. If anyone's gonna

455
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 2: go against that trend, it's it's he's definitely got it

456
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 2: back in that spot.

457
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:54,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, that that one feels sorry, That one feels I

458
00:22:54,160 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 1: don't know. I'm not buying it, and I'm not buying

459
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,159
Speaker 1: it because I I don't want to buy it, Like

460
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,399
Speaker 1: I don't I don't I want the confirmation and buy us.

461
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: I'm buying it. It just doesn't feel like a thing yet,

462
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:04,400
Speaker 1: doesn't feel like we know enough.

463
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 4: Yeah, the four and twelve throws me off. The two

464
00:23:06,840 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 4: thirteen and one could have been something to do with

465
00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,760
Speaker 4: the points spread, but four and twelve kind of confirms

466
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 4: it's not so little noisy for me. Don't know what

467
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 4: to make of.

468
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:18,880
Speaker 1: It, Simon. As you may remember, back in nineteen ninety three,

469
00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:23,360
Speaker 1: the most indelible image of Super Bowl twenty seven was camptured.

470
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 1: Captured long after the game was out of reach. With

471
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 1: five minutes to go and a Dallas Cowboys up five touchdown,

472
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: Leon Lett picked up a fumble and began to run,

473
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 1: but right before he scored, Buffalo receiver Don beebe and

474
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 1: has never said die, Western New York attitude chased him

475
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,920
Speaker 1: down sixty four yards to knock the ball loose for

476
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 1: a touchback. Some claim it was Leon's showboting near the

477
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:54,479
Speaker 1: end zone that cost him his chance for glory, but

478
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: true ballers know, true ballers like Simon and I know

479
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 1: the real reason. He was bogged down by the scratchy

480
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 1: inferior underwear of the nineteen nineties. Luckily, here in the

481
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:12,200
Speaker 1: distant future. Our friends at Tommy John have ended this

482
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483
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484
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Speaker 1: helping you extend your five touchdown lead over inferior lifestyles,

485
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,880
Speaker 1: cruising into the end zone of comfort with as much

486
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Speaker 1: show voting flare as you desire. Simon, why will you

487
00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 1: be wearing more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?

488
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490
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491
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492
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:54,440
Speaker 1: That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites. Let's just give

493
00:24:55,520 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell huzzah. They're just they get better everyone. They're

494
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:03,159
Speaker 1: little short story gems.

495
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 2: Never know where you're going with them, never.

496
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 1: Dude, this is the joy. I don't know where I'm

497
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 1: going with them either. I am finding it out as

498
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 1: I read it. Literally, I don't know what's going to

499
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: happen next. This is the beauty of working with Matt Mitchell.

500
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 1: He is a creative powerhouse. Speaking of powerhouse, Evan, tell

501
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: me something about the defensive coordinator for the Eagles, who's

502
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: keeping Chiefs betters and the Chiefs up at night with Fangio.

503
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,120
Speaker 4: And you're right, Matt is a wordsmith, so you gotta

504
00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 4: give him Matt. But talking about Fangio for a second here,

505
00:25:38,320 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 4: I think this is a just there's a bunch of

506
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 4: different ways to look at this. So obviously defensive coordinator Eagles,

507
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 4: but in this situation facing Mahomes, He's done that eight

508
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 4: times in his career. So he did it six times

509
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 4: with the Broncos, he did it twice with the Dolphins.

510
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:57,440
Speaker 4: Now Mahomes is eight to no in those games straight up,

511
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,200
Speaker 4: six and two against the spread. Mahomes as ten touchdowns,

512
00:26:01,280 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 4: two picks, sixty four percent completion percentage. Feels a little

513
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 4: low if I'm just telling you those numbers in terms

514
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 4: of the ten touchdowns in just eight games. But I

515
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 4: kind of looked a little bit deeper on this one

516
00:26:11,640 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 4: because I think this story is going to be out

517
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 4: there a lot. So two of his lowest ten passing

518
00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 4: yard games in the regular season have come versus Fangio. Granted,

519
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 4: Denver's offense scored fifteen points in those two games, so

520
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 4: didn't really put up too much of a fight passing

521
00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 4: yards after catch, which important. This game first and fourth

522
00:26:31,720 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 4: lowest career for ma Homes in regular season against that

523
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:39,960
Speaker 4: Fangio defense. In those eight games, bad throw percentage, so

524
00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:43,479
Speaker 4: that is percentage of off target throws per pass attempt.

525
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 4: He's had twenty one games at twenty three percent or

526
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 4: higher three versus Fangio. Of twenty negative EPA games in

527
00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,560
Speaker 4: his career, two have come versus Fangio defenses, and also

528
00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 4: two of his top ten worst EPA games versus Fangio defense.

529
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,760
Speaker 4: Six of eight games versus Fangio, Mahomes had twenty percent

530
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:09,200
Speaker 4: pressure percentage, which is the times pressured per dropback. So

531
00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:13,119
Speaker 4: I think Mahomes is great. He wins a ton of games.

532
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 4: I think the eight and no makes sense. I think

533
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 4: the six and two makes sense. He's putting up some points,

534
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:21,440
Speaker 4: but overall, I think last time they met against Miami,

535
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 4: he gave him a bunch of cover zero, which screwed

536
00:27:24,560 --> 00:27:26,159
Speaker 4: with him a little bit. I think he's going to

537
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 4: give him different blitzes. I think Mahomes wins lots of games.

538
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 4: I think the data is actually a bit of a Yeah,

539
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 4: you'll see the eight and no, but I think there's

540
00:27:33,600 --> 00:27:36,320
Speaker 4: a tiny bit of worry there. But that's what I've

541
00:27:36,359 --> 00:27:38,560
Speaker 4: looked at going through it. Not that I take from it,

542
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:39,399
Speaker 4: thank you.

543
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 2: I needed to hear that because I was dived into

544
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 2: the ice. When I saw that as numbers you had,

545
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 2: I was like, oh my god, is this a bad

546
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 2: magic Because when I on paper what you just said,

547
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 2: it makes sense to me where it's like, this should

548
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 2: be the perfect defense for Mahomes. You're only rushing four

549
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 2: and you're giving them exotic looks, which's that's the only

550
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,200
Speaker 2: way to beat this guy, right. If you don't have

551
00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 2: a Max Crosby on your team, you know, you need

552
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 2: have a really strong front four because we've seen that

553
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 2: even the Raiders when they beat them, that's why they

554
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 2: beat them, right, their front four gets pressure. So that's

555
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 2: what the Eagles need to do here. And you know,

556
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,679
Speaker 2: that really backs up what I thought coming into this.

557
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 2: And you know, let's let's think about this for a second.

558
00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 2: If this is the only way to beat them, I

559
00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:19,120
Speaker 2: need those numbers to come true what you just said

560
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 2: of it, I need Mahomes to have a bad game.

561
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,480
Speaker 2: You basically need the offensive the Eagles to show up.

562
00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,320
Speaker 2: If they can basically put up Well, we just talked

563
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 2: about over fifteen, sixteen, seventeen points. You know, if they

564
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 2: get in the twenty point range, twenty five points, there

565
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 2: is a chance they could beat this team because Mahomes.

566
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 2: Like I said, coming into this, I thought this would

567
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 2: be an undergame because I just can't see Mahomes putting

568
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 2: up thirty points in back to back weeks like I

569
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,719
Speaker 2: thought last week. You know, we've talked coming into this,

570
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:47,000
Speaker 2: we thought the Bills had a weak defense. Right, They've

571
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,200
Speaker 2: had injuries. We know they had seventy million dead caps,

572
00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 2: so they weren't spending on defense. They just had a

573
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 2: lot of weaknesses on that defense. So it makes sense

574
00:28:54,880 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 2: that Mahomes put up thirty two, his highest scoring game

575
00:28:57,360 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 2: the whole year. You're giving me some confidence of it.

576
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:01,280
Speaker 2: I need to hear that from Vic because I was.

577
00:29:01,560 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 2: I was worried when I saw that trend that he

578
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 2: was eight to zero against Fangs defenses.

579
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 1: So what's interesting to me here is I'd love to

580
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 1: know how often these games were played on extra rest

581
00:29:15,160 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: or off of a bye, because I do think we've

582
00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:22,560
Speaker 1: seen through your stats and through the years, no one

583
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:26,960
Speaker 1: is better at game planning with extra time than Andy Reid.

584
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 2: Right, Well, we said it was divisional. He said it

585
00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 2: was Denvers that you can count it as a bid

586
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 2: chat just because that means they prep in the offseason

587
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 2: for that defense, which I agree with you. It's like

588
00:29:36,120 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 2: you could throw that into it. But that, to me

589
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 2: is pretty interesting that he was like they had time

590
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 2: to prep against it, and Fangs defense was still pretty

591
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 2: damn good for being on not that great of a

592
00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 2: Denver defense.

593
00:29:46,760 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: See, well, now I was starting to rationalize why I

594
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 1: could feel good and now I feel bad again. Shit,

595
00:29:52,360 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 1: maybe go ahead.

596
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 4: The one I did look up because I felt like

597
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 4: the other part of this forgetting Fangio for a second,

598
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 4: I wanted to look at because the Eagles pass defense

599
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 4: has been something we've been discussing all year and it's

600
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 4: kind of everywhere. So and this helps your Mahomes case

601
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 4: on one angle, but Mahomes versus pass defense is two

602
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 4: hundred yards allowed or less. Pass defense. He's twenty three

603
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,480
Speaker 4: and three in his career, twelve straight wins. His last

604
00:30:19,520 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 4: loss was October twenty twenty two against Buffalo. In November

605
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 4: or later, He's twelve and oh straight up career. So

606
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,400
Speaker 4: the great pass defense thing and yeah, he's twelve and

607
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 4: oh in every stat I'm going to give. But the

608
00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,200
Speaker 4: fact that the two hundred yards are less on pass

609
00:30:34,280 --> 00:30:36,720
Speaker 4: defense and the twelve and oh and twelve and oh

610
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 4: later November tells me it's a mature pass defense, right, Like,

611
00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 4: this isn't a September pass defense that's played three games.

612
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 4: I mean, this is a defense that's been a few

613
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,920
Speaker 4: games into the season and feels the stat more heavy

614
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 4: to me, so absurd.

615
00:30:51,160 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: But well, the other thing I was going to say,

616
00:30:52,880 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 1: and that tells me a lot about their pregame game planning,

617
00:30:56,280 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 1: which might lead to us liking Doctor Nicks past Patrick

618
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,480
Speaker 1: Mahomes under thirty six and a half pass attempts even more.

619
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: But it also speaks to what we talked about on Tuesday, Simon,

620
00:31:09,360 --> 00:31:12,200
Speaker 1: Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes and their ability to adjust

621
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: in game. There's just nobody better at it, right. They

622
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 1: can see it and like do it series to series,

623
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:22,600
Speaker 1: almost play to play because they're so in tune and

624
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 1: so good at figuring out what the other team is

625
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: doing and how to master the opposition. It's look, it's

626
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 1: a great defense. There's there's no rationalizing that it will

627
00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 1: be giving everyone fits but it's what makes it so

628
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:37,480
Speaker 1: much more interesting, right.

629
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, it makes me think too of Josh Allen, Like

630
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 2: I haven't had some amazing stats. When Josh Allen plays

631
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 2: really good defenses, his game gets even better. He's even better.

632
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 2: And same goes for Mahomes. It's just two absolute unicorns

633
00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 2: in the sport where you know, most normal guys are

634
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 2: going to struggle against great defenses, but not these guys.

635
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: And I would love if we could play around and

636
00:31:56,520 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 2: remember these guys.

637
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 4: This is I mean a guy who was born in

638
00:32:01,160 --> 00:32:04,040
Speaker 4: the late eighties. I like sitting down and just naming

639
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 4: old players. It's what I do for a living.

640
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,520
Speaker 2: It's my most eighty nine December eighty seven.

641
00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 4: Eighty seven. I'm in the middle there. I'm in the

642
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 4: middle there. But basically, I was trying to do some

643
00:32:15,440 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 4: research on Saquon Barkley and like how someone like that,

644
00:32:19,840 --> 00:32:22,520
Speaker 4: based off of his season, could possibly do in a

645
00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, or how many guys to put up his

646
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: numbers have been to a Super Bowl. So Eagles are

647
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 4: the eleventh team to enter a Super Bowl with a

648
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 4: fifteen one hundred plus yard regular season rusher and actually

649
00:32:33,320 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 4: the first since Shawn Alexander in two thousand and five

650
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:37,840
Speaker 4: and Corey Dillon in two thousand and four, So those

651
00:32:37,880 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 4: teams with those fifteen hundred yard rushers are actually eight

652
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 4: and two in the Super Bowl. The two losses are

653
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 4: Sean Alexander in five, Jamal Anderson nineteen ninety eight, Siriani

654
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 4: And the thing that I thought was interesting of those

655
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:58,040
Speaker 4: ten teams is they're adding a rusher like Saquon Barkley,

656
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 4: but they've also had experience in the Super Bowl. So

657
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,719
Speaker 4: what I looked at was Sirianni and Hertz have been

658
00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 4: there and they added Barkley. How many times of those

659
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 4: ten rushers before Barkley did they have a coaching quarterback

660
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 4: with Super Bowl experience? So two thousand and four, Corey Dillon,

661
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 4: they had been there. It was Belichick and Brady. Two

662
00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 4: thousand and four they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen ninety eight,

663
00:33:19,120 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 4: it was Shanahan and Lway. They had Terrell Davis they

664
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 4: won the year prior they won the Super Bowl. Nineteen

665
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 4: eighty eight, it was Roger Craig. They had Walsh on Montana.

666
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,440
Speaker 4: They had both won twice prior to that. They also

667
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 4: won the Super Bowl. So those teams that had been

668
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 4: there with that Rusher actually three to zero. Now they're

669
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 4: eight and two overall, So I'm not telling you something crazy,

670
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 4: but I was trying to come up with some sort

671
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 4: of comp for just we've been here before, we've gone

672
00:33:46,200 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 4: through the prep. Plus we also have this guy who's

673
00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 4: having an outstanding season tends to turn out pretty well

674
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 4: in that spot. So that's the way I kind of

675
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 4: looked at it and trying to calculate how this team

676
00:33:59,480 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 4: adding this player who's been there would do very very

677
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 4: small numbers. And we know that even the craziest thing

678
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 4: is Saquan's prop, right, which is like one twelve, one

679
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 4: fourteen or so. This week, the question is is we

680
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 4: haven't seen someone run for one hundred and twenty yards

681
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,240
Speaker 4: in a Super Bowl since Michael Pittman in two thousand

682
00:34:16,239 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 4: and three. So I mean, either way getting to that

683
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 4: number or higher is you know, it's Terrell Davis territory

684
00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 4: in ninety eight. So I guess we're.

685
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 1: Gonna have to see how that's how long it's been

686
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 1: since a guy ran for that many yards. Yeah, I remember,

687
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: you know, as an old person, Evan, you might remember

688
00:34:33,719 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 1: that Super Bowls used to be dominated by running backs.

689
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:39,919
Speaker 1: I know, before your time in the early eighties. We're

690
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 1: talking John Riggins, Marcus Allen. Those were the freaking days.

691
00:34:45,640 --> 00:34:48,719
Speaker 1: And now you're telling me it's twenty two years since

692
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 1: a running back ran for one hundred and twenty yards.

693
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:52,760
Speaker 1: That is something.

694
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:54,919
Speaker 2: It is, But it doesn't make sense too though, because

695
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,400
Speaker 2: you think most teams are going to have a dominant,

696
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 2: great running back, probably gonna have a back quarter right

697
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:04,240
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry, he's with Tannehill. I mean CJ.

698
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 4: Twok.

699
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 2: That Tennessee team they had nothing. I mean that Tennessee

700
00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 2: team had nothing. Agrian Peterson go back and look through

701
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:12,759
Speaker 2: his career, all those incredible running seasons, he just never

702
00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 2: had a quarterback. So we don't want to blame the

703
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 2: running backs here. Even Marshawn Lynch right those incredible years,

704
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 2: there were still a pass happy offense, right with Russ,

705
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:23,600
Speaker 2: So it does make sense you dive into it. We're right.

706
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 2: This is shows what kind of unicorn situation. It says,

707
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 2: where you have the best offensive line, the best running back,

708
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 2: and then a quarterback that's above average. So I definitely

709
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,279
Speaker 2: makes sense you dive into it. We joked that you know,

710
00:35:37,560 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 2: the running backs have had a rebirth these last couple

711
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:42,720
Speaker 2: of years like they were dead right. The twenty tens

712
00:35:42,760 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 2: to twenty twenty, the running back position just felt like

713
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: it was nothing, getting no money, no respect. Now it's

714
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,320
Speaker 2: definitely going the other way, right that extra cap money.

715
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 2: Teams are using it on these legit running backs, And

716
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:57,320
Speaker 2: we saw it this year Derrick Henry Saquon major major

717
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:58,479
Speaker 2: differences to the teams they.

718
00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 1: Joined, Joe Shine and the New York Giants. Those clips

719
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 1: of him hearing from that one slowly scout assistant whatever

720
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 1: in his office saying are we sure no one's gonna

721
00:36:17,320 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 1: pay Sequon and everyone being like, noah, no one's gonna

722
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 1: pay him, and then him having the painful conversation with

723
00:36:23,680 --> 00:36:25,880
Speaker 1: Saquon that they're gonna let him test the market, like,

724
00:36:27,120 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 1: oh my god, it's it's it's excreased.

725
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:33,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, not even that his daughter told him, our daughter

726
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 4: or son told him to Jadon Daniels, Oh that's right,

727
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 4: that's right.

728
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, he was once in your lifetime. Why don't you

729
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 2: go get the best player. It's like, holy shit, this

730
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:45,240
Speaker 2: kid is smarter than half of the organizations in all football.

731
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: Got out think it. That's amazing. Want to make extra

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Speaker 1: dot bet all right, Evan. It's called the most efficient

749
00:37:55,800 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 1: market of the year for a reason.

750
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:02,320
Speaker 4: Explain unbelievable and totals almost dead even in the Super Bowl.

751
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:05,320
Speaker 4: It's actually some of the most ridiculous things ever. Fifty

752
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 4: eight total super bowls a date favorites twenty seven to

753
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 4: twenty nine and two against the spread. There was no

754
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 4: total in Super Bowl one. I can make one up,

755
00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 4: but I'm not going to. Since then, overs twenty eight,

756
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:21,200
Speaker 4: twenty eight and one absolutely dead even in Super Bowl history.

757
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 4: In the last twenty one games, the over is ten

758
00:38:24,360 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 4: and eleven. Can't get much more efficient than that, And

759
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,640
Speaker 4: the public opinion really is no help sides getting the

760
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 4: majority of tickets eleven and ten straight up in ATS

761
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 4: and the Super Bowl since two thousand and four. In

762
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:39,320
Speaker 4: the one Super Bowl, Mahomes was not the public side

763
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,839
Speaker 4: he won and covered versus the Eagles two years ago.

764
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 4: But truthfully, itch is dead even It's the craziest thing.

765
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 4: Talk about the most efficient market ever.

766
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 1: All Right, last one before we get out of here.

767
00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:56,200
Speaker 1: We do have a coaching rematch. What does that portend

768
00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: for the Eagles and the Chiefs.

769
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, fifth coaching match in Super Bowl history, all time

770
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,799
Speaker 4: head coach who won the first meeting straight up won

771
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 4: the second meeting in all four instances. Obviously, we just

772
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,919
Speaker 4: did this with Reed and Shanahan, but it's been done

773
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 4: with Kauflin and Belichick, Jimmy Johnson and Marv Levy. Sorry,

774
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 4: Matt Mitchell and Chuck Noll and Tom Landry. And the

775
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 4: craziest thing is Chiefs Eagles marks just the second time

776
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:23,279
Speaker 4: in NFL history same teams have met in the Super

777
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:25,440
Speaker 4: Bowl in a three year twice in a three year stretch,

778
00:39:25,760 --> 00:39:29,400
Speaker 4: Bill's and Cowboys ninety two to ninety three. So, you know,

779
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:32,440
Speaker 4: quick rematched here, I think is really fun because we

780
00:39:32,520 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 4: just saw this, we add a few you know, ingredients

781
00:39:34,960 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 4: to the pie. We kind of go from there.

782
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:38,280
Speaker 1: How does it make you feel, Simon?

783
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:42,239
Speaker 2: I mean, obviously not great, but this is to me

784
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,760
Speaker 2: the perfect blend of this Eagles team is totally different

785
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:47,560
Speaker 2: than they were the first time around. You go back

786
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,479
Speaker 2: and look, you know, the Eagles leading rusher with Jalen

787
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 2: Hurts with seventy yards, they're given the ball to Miles Sanders.

788
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 2: Now we have a younger, healthier, better offensive line, and

789
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:59,919
Speaker 2: we have Saguon Barkley. So it is interesting going back.

790
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 2: I mean I painfully had to do it yesterday. I

791
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 2: had to go back and watch that game, that Super Bowl.

792
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 2: I did not watch the final two minutes. I already

793
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 2: know what happens, but just rewatching it, you know, obviously

794
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,080
Speaker 2: the defense is totally different. Now, like it's really noticeable

795
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 2: how different the style is compared to Gannon and this

796
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 2: Fangs defense, where it was basically just being very careful,

797
00:40:20,640 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 2: very soft, playing zone the entire game, where this new

798
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,959
Speaker 2: Eagles team super aggressive, have the cornerbacks to play man.

799
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 2: And yeah, obviously when you break it down the coaching mismatch,

800
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:33,720
Speaker 2: me and Chatter gave our opinion. We think the Chiefs

801
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:36,799
Speaker 2: have a huge advantage and Andy Reid and spag So yeah,

802
00:40:36,840 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: it doesn't doesn't shock me that fact that these coaches,

803
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 2: you know, especially the Kaflin one. Note he had the

804
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 2: Patriots number, like he had the secret sauce right, that

805
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: the four rushers, smart with the ball on all offense,

806
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 2: very boring football. It worked like that style that Giants played.

807
00:40:52,680 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: It was the perfect match for that that Patriots team.

808
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:57,800
Speaker 2: And I mean it is crazy. I think they lost

809
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,760
Speaker 2: three super Bowls and two of them to a Giants

810
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:03,439
Speaker 2: team that were what a wildcard team of So yeah,

811
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 2: it is pretty insane. We haven't had nothing fluky like that,

812
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:10,240
Speaker 2: and like Evma said, since what twenty twelve, So once again,

813
00:41:10,440 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 2: it's been pretty pretty born one and two seeds every year.

814
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 2: Pretty much true story.

815
00:41:15,360 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 1: I had drinks with Marv Levy and his wife. I

816
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:21,120
Speaker 1: don't think I ever told Matt Mitchell this at the

817
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 1: Super Bowl one year after he had retired. When I

818
00:41:24,520 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 1: was at Sports Illustrated, I fact checked. It was my

819
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 1: first job at SI, fact checked a story about Marv Levy.

820
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:35,280
Speaker 1: I think Rick Tellender, who was my hero mentor IDOL,

821
00:41:35,880 --> 00:41:38,800
Speaker 1: wrote the story. Then I had to as a fact checker.

822
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:42,240
Speaker 1: You got to call the subject and basically check every

823
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:46,799
Speaker 1: fact in the story, sometimes really intimate details. And so

824
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:49,680
Speaker 1: I had that conversation with Marv Levy and we were

825
00:41:49,719 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 1: both going to be at the super Bowl forget where

826
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 1: it was. The Bills weren't in it, and me and

827
00:41:55,680 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 1: him and his wife had a drink and it was lovely.

828
00:41:58,160 --> 00:42:01,359
Speaker 1: Couldn't have been a nicer guy. Now, Michelle, you happy

829
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: I told that story.

830
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:08,880
Speaker 5: Harvard Master's degree holder, Marv Levy, one of America's greatest

831
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 5: treasures and who will be one hundred years old during

832
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:15,920
Speaker 5: WOW the end of training camp this year. Marv, if

833
00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:17,920
Speaker 5: you're listing, you're a national treasurer.

834
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 1: I love you, class act all the way.

835
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 5: No place else should rather be this right here, right

836
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Speaker 5: when it's too tough for them it's.

837
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:29,400
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Speaker 1: and I We'll return with our next episode of The

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Speaker 1: Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page Tuesday, one thirty

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