WEBVTT - Week 3 Power Rankings with Spreadapedia (Ep 204) 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.640 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:03.680 --> 0:00:06.640 I'm your host Thomas Piolin joining me as always none 0:00:06.680 --> 0:00:10.119 other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today to 0:00:10.240 --> 0:00:13.480 help us break down the reactions to Week two, adjust 0:00:13.480 --> 0:00:16.759 our power ratings, and see which teams truly are the 0:00:16.800 --> 0:00:20.040 best and worst going into Week three, none other than 0:00:20.120 --> 0:00:24.120 Spreadipedia himself Jason Weingarten. Jason, how are you doing today? 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:25.080 Pretty good? 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:27.160 Nice to talk to you again. I had had fun 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.600 last time last time I was on the show with you. 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:32.919 Absolutely it was great having you on, of course last time. 0:00:32.920 --> 0:00:35.320 If people want to go back, Baseball season isn't quite 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:38.760 over yet. Amazingly, it's not over for the Mets. They 0:00:39.280 --> 0:00:42.160 they just clinched the playoff spot. But on our last 0:00:42.200 --> 0:00:44.879 conversation with Jason, we talked about the dangers of no 0:00:45.000 --> 0:00:47.560 run first innings, how you should probably be betting the 0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:51.040 yes instead, and a whole bunch of other great conversations. 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:54.680 But today, guys, we are talking all about the NFL. 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.600 It was another wild. 0:00:56.240 --> 0:00:57.000 Week of action. 0:00:57.640 --> 0:01:01.600 Three different teams had ninety nine percent or higher win 0:01:01.760 --> 0:01:06.480 percentage chances and manage to lose their games. Matt, it 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:09.240 was a nuts week. But before we get started on it, 0:01:09.280 --> 0:01:10.920 I want to remind everybody that if you want to 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:14.640 win a sign Joe Mix in Cincinnati Bengals jersey courtesy 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:17.720 of our friends at Pristine Auction, you need to subscribe 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.120 to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now comment below 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:23.800 this video and that's it. We will be announcing a 0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:25.880 winner right here on the channel, so make sure to 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:28.840 turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:32.480 new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Now, Matt, 0:01:32.560 --> 0:01:35.240 let's shift into the forty nine er game here. How 0:01:35.240 --> 0:01:37.880 far are the Niners going up or down your power 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:41.360 rankings based off of that Trey Lance injury. Jimmy g 0:01:41.480 --> 0:01:43.959 obviously finished the game at quarterback. He's going to be 0:01:43.959 --> 0:01:47.080 the quarterback the rest of the season. Matt, where are 0:01:47.080 --> 0:01:49.720 you looking with the forty nine ers? Because they're odds shortened, 0:01:49.760 --> 0:01:52.760 they are now a more likely Super Bowl winner than 0:01:52.840 --> 0:01:56.080 they were before Week two because of this injury here, 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:58.800 I'm inclined to push them up my power ratings as well. 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:04.600 Yeah, I moved the Cowboys up pretty significantly. I moved 0:02:04.600 --> 0:02:07.520 them up a point based on what we saw last week. 0:02:07.560 --> 0:02:10.519 I maybe had downgraded them too much in the move 0:02:10.600 --> 0:02:14.400 from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush. And I should say, like, obviously, 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:17.240 like quarterback moves, those are really the only things that 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:21.480 should make you move your power ratings significantly weak over week. 0:02:22.760 --> 0:02:25.600 But yeah, we have a quarterback change here in San Francisco, 0:02:25.680 --> 0:02:28.360 and I've bumped the forty nine ers up point seventy 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:31.120 five points in my power ratings, and honestly, like I kind. 0:02:30.919 --> 0:02:32.040 Of don't know if it's enough. 0:02:32.960 --> 0:02:35.920 I feel like, you know, probably Jimmy g is like 0:02:36.000 --> 0:02:39.000 at least a point better against the spread on a 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:43.079 neutral field relative to Trey Lance, who was highly unproven. 0:02:43.080 --> 0:02:45.400 And you know, say whatever you want about Jimmy Garoppolo 0:02:46.360 --> 0:02:49.239 since he joined the forty nine ers. You know, twenty seventeen, 0:02:49.320 --> 0:02:51.799 he was the number four quarterback in the league in 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:57.280 completion percentage over expectation and EPA combined. That's not like 0:02:57.360 --> 0:03:00.720 a perfect metric, but it's a pretty good, you know, 0:03:00.840 --> 0:03:05.200 like number one is Patrick Mahomes, number two is Drew Brees, 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:07.400 number three is to Shaun Watson, and number five is 0:03:07.440 --> 0:03:10.920 Aaron Rodgers. Like for Jimmy Garoppolo to be in that list, 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.720 it doesn't mean like it's sort of like very clearly 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:16.400 like the which one of these guys is not like 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:19.320 the others. So it's not to say he's an elite quarterback, 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:21.600 but it is to say that within the confines of 0:03:21.639 --> 0:03:25.440 what he is asked to do, within that Kyle Shanahan system, 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:28.720 he can do it pretty well. And so we have 0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:31.680 a pretty large sample size of knowing what Garoppolo can 0:03:31.800 --> 0:03:34.280 do within that offense and knowing what the offense can 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:38.600 do with Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, and it can 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:41.839 function pretty highly. So I have, I want to say, 0:03:41.840 --> 0:03:45.800 like aggressively, but I've significantly moved up the forty nine 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:48.480 ers with the new quarterback situation. 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:51.360 Now, Jason, how about you, how are you feeling about 0:03:51.360 --> 0:03:53.040 this forty nine Ers team moving forward? 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:57.440 I think it probably helps them in the short term. 0:03:58.200 --> 0:04:00.920 Lance was the guy they wanted to develop long term 0:04:00.960 --> 0:04:05.240 and lead this team on a rookie contract. But they 0:04:05.280 --> 0:04:08.920 made the right decision keeping Garoppolo and it paid off. 0:04:08.920 --> 0:04:09.920 It paid off early. 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:14.560 I think the locker room is very happy that, you know, 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:17.240 Garoppolo is the guy, or at least there is a 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.640 certain faction of the locker room that probably preferred him 0:04:20.640 --> 0:04:24.040 to be the starting quarterback to begin with, and you know, 0:04:24.160 --> 0:04:27.680 I think they're going to probably be a playoff contender 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:29.840 this season. Wouldn't surprise me to see him make a 0:04:29.920 --> 0:04:31.239 run at the division. 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:35.640 Again, I'm with you. I think that all of a sudden, 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:37.960 this team bumps up a lot because of this, And 0:04:38.600 --> 0:04:40.520 that's not a hot take. It is pretty much the 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:44.080 consensus right now. It's been well documented that I am 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:48.200 not on the Trey Lance train. Obviously, we hope that 0:04:48.279 --> 0:04:51.960 he has a speedy recovery and is back and right 0:04:52.000 --> 0:04:55.360 at him next year. But from a pure football standpoint, 0:04:55.640 --> 0:04:57.440 this team is better with Jimmy g at the helm. 0:04:57.480 --> 0:04:59.400 And now all of a sudden, I'm regretting my nine 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:03.400 er seven win ticket. But we still have plenty more 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:06.760 to get to here. Moving on to some other teams, Guys, again, 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:09.320 it was a topsy turvy week, and now we have 0:05:09.360 --> 0:05:12.160 a two week sample size, we're starting to see, Okay, 0:05:12.200 --> 0:05:15.200 what was a week one fluke? What might actually be 0:05:15.240 --> 0:05:17.480 a trend or a pattern here? What were some of 0:05:17.520 --> 0:05:21.240 the biggest surprises for you out of these week two games? 0:05:21.240 --> 0:05:21.440 Man? 0:05:22.120 --> 0:05:24.800 Yeah, I mean big surprises, you know, all the big 0:05:24.800 --> 0:05:27.960 come from behind victories, the Jets winning outright. Your Jets 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:30.440 winning out right, by the way, congratulations on that long 0:05:30.480 --> 0:05:34.400 suffering Jets fan. The Dolphins coming back from down twenty one, 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:39.440 Arizona coming back, Jacksonville winning outright and shutting out the 0:05:39.440 --> 0:05:42.520 Colts while doing it. And then of course the Cowboys, 0:05:42.560 --> 0:05:46.919 My Cowboys beating the Bengals. That was very surprising. Although 0:05:47.080 --> 0:05:49.480 you know, Mike McCarthy now six and two against the 0:05:49.560 --> 0:05:53.400 spread as an underdog without Dak. You know, that's not 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:55.960 to say that Mike McCarthy is like a great coach, 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.720 because I believe he very much is not. But maybe 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:02.200 it is to say that Dak isn't as significant in 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:04.359 that offense as I would have expected him to be. 0:06:05.200 --> 0:06:07.800 Guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:11.160 and sports betting advice, bettingpros dot com has you covered 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:13.599 with tips from over one hundred and fifty experts to 0:06:13.640 --> 0:06:16.240 make it easy for you to cash out. Download the 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:18.480 app to get sports betting alerts. You'll get notified of 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:22.080 favorable bets based online movements, consensus picks from the most 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:26.120 accurate experts, and vetted systems in play. 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All right, Jason, 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:39.400 and how about you, what were some of the things 0:06:39.400 --> 0:06:41.560 that you really weren't expecting to see through two weeks 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:42.440 of this NFL season. 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:45.440 Well, first, you mentioned the Jets. 0:06:45.480 --> 0:06:47.520 I actually didn't even know the Jets have won that 0:06:47.600 --> 0:06:50.640 game until like probably two or three in the afternoon. 0:06:50.800 --> 0:06:53.359 I was got to the Rams game at that point 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:56.800 and someone texted me, wow that the Browns were a 0:06:56.839 --> 0:06:58.680 big pick and survivor and I was like, what are 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:00.000 you talking about the Browns? 0:07:00.120 --> 0:07:00.960 One? Right? 0:07:01.920 --> 0:07:05.400 Oh, so yeah, that was that was news to me. 0:07:07.200 --> 0:07:10.600 I think Detroit obviously has been a story so far. 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:13.360 They look, you know, like they're they're on the up. 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:19.760 Philadelphia has has been impressive so far through the game 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:20.240 and a half. 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:23.239 I got to watch them, and then Tampa. 0:07:23.280 --> 0:07:26.440 I was really, really, really down on Tampa coming into 0:07:26.440 --> 0:07:29.960 the season and they're two and zero and favorites in 0:07:30.000 --> 0:07:33.520 Week three against Green Bay. So as usual, I've I've 0:07:33.520 --> 0:07:36.200 been wrong about Tampa. You know, I've been wrong about 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:38.239 Tom Brady just about every every season. 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:39.080 I continue to do. 0:07:39.200 --> 0:07:43.160 So it's so hard, he's forty five. At some point 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:45.360 you're just like, come on, he has to fall off. 0:07:45.800 --> 0:07:47.800 Maybe it is this year now, Like, I'm a little 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:50.600 worried about this team moving forward with obviously no Godwin 0:07:50.680 --> 0:07:53.480 at the moment. Now you have no Mike Evans next weekend, 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:57.040 viously decided to go into UFC against Marshall Lattimore there 0:07:57.600 --> 0:08:02.120 and without the weapons. Does this team finally slow down? 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.280 It's a question that we're gonna have to ask. But 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:06.760 one thing that I'm surprised about neither of you brought 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:09.480 up the Bengals. I really did not have the Bengals 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:13.080 being zero to two right now and just looking as 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:16.040 bad as they have. Matt, what do you think? 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:20.560 Yeah, I mean, it's it's a question, is too like 0:08:20.600 --> 0:08:22.720 we all knew or I tell you know, we all knew, 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:25.800 but like there was this strong sentiment that the Bengals, 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.480 I wouldn't say they were due for regression, but that 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:33.480 they could struggle this year. And they have an especially hard, 0:08:34.080 --> 0:08:38.760 hard schedule to open the year, you know, in weeks 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:41.040 two through eight, So you know after Week one right 0:08:41.400 --> 0:08:44.040 weeks two through eight, they have a stretch four or 0:08:44.120 --> 0:08:48.240 five games away, five of seven games away. You know, 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.320 some of their road games aren't all that bad, you know, 0:08:51.360 --> 0:08:53.839 like against the Jets, but it's still on the road. 0:08:54.880 --> 0:08:58.000 And so everyone knew, like, hey, this could be a 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:03.480 team that even if they improve overall, they could still 0:09:03.520 --> 0:09:06.240 not win as many games as they did last year. 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:09.040 And it's not just that they like, oh, they've improved 0:09:09.080 --> 0:09:12.280 and had some tough luck. It's just that, like, they're 0:09:12.320 --> 0:09:15.160 not looking better than they were last year, and their 0:09:15.200 --> 0:09:19.680 offensive line, which should ultimately be better than last year's 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:22.320 unit was, it is taking a while for that unit 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:27.360 to coalesce. So it's I don't think it's a surprise 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:30.080 that they have started oh in two, but I think 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:33.000 it's a surprise in the way in which they have 0:09:33.080 --> 0:09:37.400 started oh and two. You know, like losing against the Steelers, Okay, 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:40.880 a divisional opponent in Week one. You know, anything can 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:43.480 kind of happen in that situation, and you think before 0:09:43.520 --> 0:09:47.040 the season, okay, losing on the road to the Cowboys, 0:09:47.160 --> 0:09:49.080 you think, yeah, like you could see how they lose 0:09:49.120 --> 0:09:51.439 that game. But you know, losing to Mitch Trubisky when 0:09:51.440 --> 0:09:55.200 he looks horrible, and losing to Cooper Rush that doesn't 0:09:55.240 --> 0:09:57.280 like jive with how it was that we imagine this 0:09:57.320 --> 0:09:57.960 would go down. 0:09:58.600 --> 0:10:01.560 I'm out here going now, Okay, they go into Week three, 0:10:01.640 --> 0:10:06.840 They're playing the Jets in New York. I was gonna 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:08.880 pick this team for my Survivor this week, and all 0:10:08.920 --> 0:10:11.800 of a sudden, I'm looking over the shoulder, like, I 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:13.840 don't think the Jets are gonna win two games in 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:15.920 a row. That's not a very Jets thing to do. 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:21.240 But I don't know, are you thinking that maybe is 0:10:21.280 --> 0:10:23.400 there a risk here? I'm probably not gonna play them 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:26.439 in Survivor, but could the Bengals start zero to three? Jason, 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:26.960 what do you think? 0:10:27.640 --> 0:10:29.120 Yeah? I bet the Jets this weekend. 0:10:30.240 --> 0:10:33.000 I bet the Bengals missed the playoffs this week after 0:10:33.200 --> 0:10:34.160 starting hing two. 0:10:34.440 --> 0:10:36.520 I think they're in a really bad spot. 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:41.600 Matt pointed out, they're unfavorable scheduling situations. That's something I 0:10:41.640 --> 0:10:44.719 have circled as well. So like, this week is their 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:48.640 second of a back to back road road games, So 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:50.680 I'm really happy to take the Jets as a dog 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:51.440 at home here. 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:54.520 The other thing, what is it? 0:10:54.600 --> 0:10:57.160 Joe Burrow has been sacked like seven times a game, 0:10:57.440 --> 0:11:00.680 both both games to start the season. That is a 0:11:00.840 --> 0:11:05.040 lot of sacks. You extrapolate that over the entire season, 0:11:05.040 --> 0:11:08.000 that would be over one hundred sacks. Not that that's 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:10.440 going to happen, because if he gets anywhere close to 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.400 that number, he's gonna be out injured because that's just 0:11:13.480 --> 0:11:17.560 such an unsustainable amount of hits for a professional quarterback 0:11:17.600 --> 0:11:20.560 to take. So there is a lot of stuff I 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:26.440 don't like going with Cincinnati. They're bad offensive line, the 0:11:26.559 --> 0:11:31.360 unsustainability of the hits, Joe Burrows taking starting zero in two, 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:36.119 another back to back road trip coming up to Baltimore 0:11:36.520 --> 0:11:39.080 and New Orleans. I think it is, you know, two 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:42.400 teams that aren't going to take it easy on them 0:11:42.440 --> 0:11:43.559 on defense at all. 0:11:44.000 --> 0:11:47.160 So a lot of negatives going for the Bengals. 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:50.640 Not to mention that Zach Zach what's the name, Zach 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:53.280 Taylor is the head coach. You know, maybe last year 0:11:53.600 --> 0:11:56.440 just was a whole string of lucky. They got the 0:11:56.520 --> 0:12:00.200 Raiders in the playoffs, they beat the Titans, and they 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:02.800 got really lucky against the Chiefs. You know that that 0:12:02.920 --> 0:12:05.400 took a whole bunch of things and missed field goals 0:12:05.480 --> 0:12:08.520 and whatnot to even get to the to the super Bowl. 0:12:08.600 --> 0:12:11.800 So now they're coming off this this extended playoff run. 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:14.800 They have a bad offensive line, wouldn't even surprise me 0:12:15.920 --> 0:12:19.240 my boldest pick. I just wrote about this this this 0:12:19.280 --> 0:12:23.720 week for Viisen. Actually, I bet the Bengals to have 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:27.280 the worst record in the NFL at fifty to one. 0:12:27.480 --> 0:12:30.000 I think that's way too high, especially when you look 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:34.760 at the schedule. They got the Bills, they got Tampa Bay. 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:39.040 They don't have a lot of easy games in the pipeline, 0:12:39.120 --> 0:12:43.720 so things go south in Cincinnati. They can go south quickly, 0:12:43.920 --> 0:12:47.080 and the Bengals can be the bung Goals again, you know, 0:12:47.200 --> 0:12:48.000 before we know it. 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:52.600 Well, that's I mean, fifty to one for the Bengals 0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:55.079 to have the worst record in the league. I'm wondering 0:12:55.280 --> 0:12:58.000 so obviously like kind of wide range of outcomes with 0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:01.240 how things could could unfold with this team. Wide range 0:13:01.280 --> 0:13:04.280 may be skewed towards the downside with them. I'm wondering 0:13:04.400 --> 0:13:10.040 how much you have adjusted your assumptions about the baseline 0:13:10.280 --> 0:13:13.560 for this team so week over week I've bumped them 0:13:13.600 --> 0:13:17.360 down zero point five points relative to where I had 0:13:17.360 --> 0:13:19.959 them previously. Honestly, I was attempted to bump them down 0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:22.120 a little bit more, but that just felt like I 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.920 would be too aggressive. But how how are you like 0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:28.920 viewing this team in a vacuum. 0:13:29.800 --> 0:13:32.720 Well, remember that they're fortunate in the fact that every 0:13:32.800 --> 0:13:35.200 other team in their division right now is one and one, 0:13:35.920 --> 0:13:39.400 and you know, a win this week puts them, you know, 0:13:39.800 --> 0:13:44.960 turn turns things around, you know, fairly quickly, at least 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:48.440 in terms of, you know, attempting to make the playoffs 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:49.560 and win the division. 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:49.920 And all that stuff. 0:13:49.960 --> 0:13:53.520 But you mentioned range of outcomes, and it's just if 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:57.320 they if they lose this week, their situation is not 0:13:57.440 --> 0:14:00.400 great at zero to three. With Miami come into town, 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.400 you know, it's just a hard offense to defend against. 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:06.960 Then they go they have the back to back road 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:10.320 trip I mentioned Baltimore and New Orleans. They get a 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:13.959 little bit the easiest sort of chunk of their schedule 0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:18.360 with with Atlanta and uh, what's it called the Browns 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:22.000 without Deshaun Watson, and they get Carolina. But after that 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:26.560 second half of the season's absolute bloodbath starts at after 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:30.160 the bye week, they they're at Pittsburgh at Tennessee, they 0:14:30.200 --> 0:14:34.400 get Kansas City, Cleveland at home with Deshaun Watson, at 0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.920 Tampa Bay at New England. Late in the season, Buffalo 0:14:37.960 --> 0:14:41.720 and Baltimore. You know those are all, you know, not 0:14:41.920 --> 0:14:45.720 not easy games, especially when you have a quarterback that's 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.520 getting smashed on a weekly basis. 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.880 So just range of outcomes, things go south. They go 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:52.920 south quickly. Here. 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:57.320 I'm not even convinced Zach Taylor makes it through the 0:14:57.320 --> 0:14:59.600 whole season if it if it goes as bad as 0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:02.960 it could. If I was looking for a cheap first 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:06.120 coach fired, I would pick Zac Taylor at a big number. 0:15:06.160 --> 0:15:08.240 I didn't see that today I was looking for it. Though. 0:15:09.600 --> 0:15:13.080 It is worth remembering this team's only two years removed 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:16.240 from what another first overall pick or dam They. 0:15:16.080 --> 0:15:20.440 Weren't very good, They got very good very quickly, and 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:22.720 then a lot of luck played into that. It just, 0:15:22.920 --> 0:15:25.800 you know, like this, This team lost to the Jets 0:15:25.840 --> 0:15:27.080 as recently as last year. 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:28.440 Don't don't forget that. 0:15:28.600 --> 0:15:33.120 They I like Joe Burrow a lot, but the unsustainability 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:35.880 of him continuing to get hit is a major thing. 0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:39.640 That's that's not really being talked about a lot right now. 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:43.800 Shout out to Mike White. Now, guys, is the are 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:46.360 the Bengals the team that is dropping the furthest in 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:48.960 your power rankings right now? Or is there someone that 0:15:49.320 --> 0:15:51.840 you were looking at with an even more negative light 0:15:51.960 --> 0:15:55.280 after two weeks of the season, Matt, Yeah. 0:15:55.080 --> 0:15:57.720 There were a number of teams that I dropped down 0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:03.240 this week, all point five points. The Rams don't look 0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:06.120 like the Rams of last year, or maybe you know, 0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:09.080 it's just say the Rams last year were very streaky, 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:11.440 and they you know, they put a good run of 0:16:11.480 --> 0:16:14.840 games together. But you know, any any good team can 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:20.120 lose to the Bills. That's fine. Refusing to close out 0:16:20.680 --> 0:16:27.040 the Falcons was pretty concerning. Also the Denver Broncos. I mean, 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:30.320 I think Russell Wilson is not the Russell Wilson of 0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.600 five years ago. And the head coach that they have 0:16:33.960 --> 0:16:35.640 is definitely not the head coach they want to have 0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:40.080 next year. It's a really negative situation. I've also downgraded 0:16:40.120 --> 0:16:43.800 the Colts, who I'm just sorry. Like the Jags, Okay, 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:46.760 maybe they're better than we thought they were, But if 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:49.760 all it takes is losing one wide receiver and one 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:54.320 mindbacker for you to get beat by twenty four points 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:58.000 by the Jags, you're not as good as everyone thought 0:16:58.040 --> 0:17:02.080 you were. The Titans, that that's obvious. Uh, And then 0:17:02.320 --> 0:17:05.399 the Steelers, you know, like I want to like this team. 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.800 They've got a lot of grit. Uh, They've got a 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:11.920 I think an underappreciated defense, but they have Mitch Trubisky 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:16.400 a quarterback, and I just I have to downgrade them. Honestly, 0:17:16.440 --> 0:17:18.520 I thought this number should be three, you know, looking 0:17:18.560 --> 0:17:21.679 ahead towards week three, uh Thursday night football. Uh, you 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:24.159 know with the Browns, I thought the number should have 0:17:24.160 --> 0:17:25.600 been three. I think it was three in the look 0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:28.959 ahead market. It's now I think like five. Uh So 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.760 I'm probably I'm probably still too high on the Steelers 0:17:32.760 --> 0:17:33.640 to be honest. 0:17:33.960 --> 0:17:36.640 I I personally think that the problem is losing TJ. 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:39.800 Watt because that that team is what zero to five 0:17:39.960 --> 0:17:43.600 now in games where Watt doesn't play, that defense really 0:17:43.640 --> 0:17:46.040 struggles to function once he's once he's out. 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:46.680 Yeah. 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:49.040 And then on the offensive side, like you said, no, 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:52.800 Mitch Trubisky is not the answer. And eventually you have 0:17:52.840 --> 0:17:56.200 to think sooner rather than later, Kenny baby hands pick 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:58.320 it has to be getting the call to go to 0:17:58.359 --> 0:17:59.879 get on the field and start playing more. 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.840 Right, I don't think, I hope. 0:18:03.080 --> 0:18:05.679 I don't think Kenny Pickett's gonna play much this season. 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:10.560 They've been They've been pretty public that he's gonna sit 0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:12.960 on the bench and learn, and it would be very 0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:14.879 un Steelers like for them to all of a sudden 0:18:14.960 --> 0:18:17.160 change their mind and just throw them in, especially early 0:18:17.200 --> 0:18:19.840 in the season. If things get away from them, you know, 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:21.800 maybe he starts a couple of games late, but I 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:26.560 don't see them, you know, taking the team away from Trabitsky. 0:18:26.600 --> 0:18:29.879 And I think, uh, this Week two game against the Patriots, 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:32.120 it was just a bad spot in general, coming off 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:35.040 the Week one overtime, so it didn't surprise me that 0:18:35.080 --> 0:18:38.920 they came out flat there. I wouldn't write the Steelers 0:18:38.920 --> 0:18:40.480 off just yet, though I bet them to win the 0:18:40.520 --> 0:18:42.240 division at ten to one before the season. 0:18:42.480 --> 0:18:43.120 I think the TJ. 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:47.960 Watt injury really sucks, though, but still earlier I don't think. 0:18:48.320 --> 0:18:50.840 I don't think I would just totally write off everything 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:51.359 they're doing. 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:52.760 Give it, give it some more time. 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:55.840 I'm still holding out hope on my thirty three to 0:18:55.880 --> 0:18:58.920 one Mike Tomlin Coach of the Year ticket. The hope 0:18:58.960 --> 0:19:02.080 is not completely dead just yet, but it's it's on 0:19:02.160 --> 0:19:04.600 life support. The flip side of it is, with all 0:19:04.600 --> 0:19:07.520 these injuries, if they make it to the playoffs, I 0:19:07.520 --> 0:19:09.560 feel like I have a great chance, they just have 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:13.119 to get there. But sorry, go, no, you go. 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:15.320 I'd say, I don't think Coach of the Year is 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:17.400 going to matter if the Bills go fifteen and two. 0:19:18.000 --> 0:19:21.120 You know, Sean McDermott, I actually bet some of that today. 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:25.960 But I agree with most of what Matt said about 0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:29.520 the Rams. I've down downgraded them. I thought, even even 0:19:29.640 --> 0:19:34.280 coming off that win against the Falcons, they easily could 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:35.040 have lost that game. 0:19:35.080 --> 0:19:37.399 They got lucky, not only late in the game, but 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:38.320 they got lucky. 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:42.760 Early in the game that the first possession was a 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:45.919 turnover on turnover on downs or missed field goal or whatever. 0:19:47.119 --> 0:19:49.439 There were a lot of situations I think that the 0:19:49.440 --> 0:19:51.720 Falcons could have taken advantage and scored more points in 0:19:51.800 --> 0:19:57.119 that game early. Besides the Rams, though, I also have 0:19:57.160 --> 0:19:59.359 downgraded the Titans a bit. Basically, all the O and 0:19:59.440 --> 0:20:02.600 two teams a downgrade for me, but the Titans and 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:05.760 the Bengals, I think, you know, I could almost guarantee 0:20:05.760 --> 0:20:07.320 you one of those two teams is not at the 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:08.240 playoffs this year. 0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:11.879 I mean, I think that's a pretty safe bet. I 0:20:11.960 --> 0:20:14.439 was low on the Titans going into the season, but 0:20:14.520 --> 0:20:17.480 I'm kicking myself right now because I did not pick 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:19.840 the Texans eighty to one. I talked about it, I 0:20:19.960 --> 0:20:22.120 danced around it. I never took the Texans to win 0:20:22.160 --> 0:20:24.879 that division at eighty to one, and I really really 0:20:24.920 --> 0:20:28.680 wish I had. But man, the teams at the top there, 0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:32.440 the Titans and the Colts both just look like garbage 0:20:32.520 --> 0:20:35.600 right now. Matt already talked about it a little bit 0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:38.800 with Okay, you lose Michael Pittman, you lose Shaquille Leonard, 0:20:39.200 --> 0:20:43.159 But twenty four points to the Jags, especially when you 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:45.359 have that game marked on the calendar after what happened 0:20:45.359 --> 0:20:48.199