Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: I'm your host Thomas Piolin joining me as always none
Speaker 1: other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today to
Speaker 1: help us break down the reactions to Week two, adjust
Speaker 1: our power ratings, and see which teams truly are the
Speaker 1: best and worst going into Week three, none other than
Speaker 1: Spreadipedia himself Jason Weingarten. Jason, how are you doing today?
Speaker 2: Pretty good?
Speaker 3: Nice to talk to you again. I had had fun
Speaker 3: last time last time I was on the show with you.
Speaker 1: Absolutely it was great having you on, of course last time.
Speaker 1: If people want to go back, Baseball season isn't quite
Speaker 1: over yet. Amazingly, it's not over for the Mets. They
Speaker 1: they just clinched the playoff spot. But on our last
Speaker 1: conversation with Jason, we talked about the dangers of no
Speaker 1: run first innings, how you should probably be betting the
Speaker 1: yes instead, and a whole bunch of other great conversations.
Speaker 1: But today, guys, we are talking all about the NFL.
Speaker 1: It was another wild.
Speaker 2: Week of action.
Speaker 1: Three different teams had ninety nine percent or higher win
Speaker 1: percentage chances and manage to lose their games. Matt, it
Speaker 1: was a nuts week. But before we get started on it,
Speaker 1: I want to remind everybody that if you want to
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Speaker 1: new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Now, Matt,
Speaker 1: let's shift into the forty nine er game here. How
Speaker 1: far are the Niners going up or down your power
Speaker 1: rankings based off of that Trey Lance injury. Jimmy g
Speaker 1: obviously finished the game at quarterback. He's going to be
Speaker 1: the quarterback the rest of the season. Matt, where are
Speaker 1: you looking with the forty nine ers? Because they're odds shortened,
Speaker 1: they are now a more likely Super Bowl winner than
Speaker 1: they were before Week two because of this injury here,
Speaker 1: I'm inclined to push them up my power ratings as well.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I moved the Cowboys up pretty significantly. I moved
Speaker 4: them up a point based on what we saw last week.
Speaker 4: I maybe had downgraded them too much in the move
Speaker 4: from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush. And I should say, like, obviously,
Speaker 4: like quarterback moves, those are really the only things that
Speaker 4: should make you move your power ratings significantly weak over week.
Speaker 4: But yeah, we have a quarterback change here in San Francisco,
Speaker 4: and I've bumped the forty nine ers up point seventy
Speaker 4: five points in my power ratings, and honestly, like I kind.
Speaker 2: Of don't know if it's enough.
Speaker 4: I feel like, you know, probably Jimmy g is like
Speaker 4: at least a point better against the spread on a
Speaker 4: neutral field relative to Trey Lance, who was highly unproven.
Speaker 4: And you know, say whatever you want about Jimmy Garoppolo
Speaker 4: since he joined the forty nine ers. You know, twenty seventeen,
Speaker 4: he was the number four quarterback in the league in
Speaker 4: completion percentage over expectation and EPA combined. That's not like
Speaker 4: a perfect metric, but it's a pretty good, you know,
Speaker 4: like number one is Patrick Mahomes, number two is Drew Brees,
Speaker 4: number three is to Shaun Watson, and number five is
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers. Like for Jimmy Garoppolo to be in that list,
Speaker 4: it doesn't mean like it's sort of like very clearly
Speaker 4: like the which one of these guys is not like
Speaker 4: the others. So it's not to say he's an elite quarterback,
Speaker 4: but it is to say that within the confines of
Speaker 4: what he is asked to do, within that Kyle Shanahan system,
Speaker 4: he can do it pretty well. And so we have
Speaker 4: a pretty large sample size of knowing what Garoppolo can
Speaker 4: do within that offense and knowing what the offense can
Speaker 4: do with Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, and it can
Speaker 4: function pretty highly. So I have, I want to say,
Speaker 4: like aggressively, but I've significantly moved up the forty nine
Speaker 4: ers with the new quarterback situation.
Speaker 1: Now, Jason, how about you, how are you feeling about
Speaker 1: this forty nine Ers team moving forward?
Speaker 2: I think it probably helps them in the short term.
Speaker 3: Lance was the guy they wanted to develop long term
Speaker 3: and lead this team on a rookie contract. But they
Speaker 3: made the right decision keeping Garoppolo and it paid off.
Speaker 2: It paid off early.
Speaker 3: I think the locker room is very happy that, you know,
Speaker 3: Garoppolo is the guy, or at least there is a
Speaker 3: certain faction of the locker room that probably preferred him
Speaker 3: to be the starting quarterback to begin with, and you know,
Speaker 3: I think they're going to probably be a playoff contender
Speaker 3: this season. Wouldn't surprise me to see him make a
Speaker 3: run at the division.
Speaker 1: Again, I'm with you. I think that all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: this team bumps up a lot because of this, And
Speaker 1: that's not a hot take. It is pretty much the
Speaker 1: consensus right now. It's been well documented that I am
Speaker 1: not on the Trey Lance train. Obviously, we hope that
Speaker 1: he has a speedy recovery and is back and right
Speaker 1: at him next year. But from a pure football standpoint,
Speaker 1: this team is better with Jimmy g at the helm.
Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden, I'm regretting my nine
Speaker 1: er seven win ticket. But we still have plenty more
Speaker 1: to get to here. Moving on to some other teams, Guys, again,
Speaker 1: it was a topsy turvy week, and now we have
Speaker 1: a two week sample size, we're starting to see, Okay,
Speaker 1: what was a week one fluke? What might actually be
Speaker 1: a trend or a pattern here? What were some of
Speaker 1: the biggest surprises for you out of these week two games?
Speaker 3: Man?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean big surprises, you know, all the big
Speaker 4: come from behind victories, the Jets winning outright. Your Jets
Speaker 4: winning out right, by the way, congratulations on that long
Speaker 4: suffering Jets fan. The Dolphins coming back from down twenty one,
Speaker 4: Arizona coming back, Jacksonville winning outright and shutting out the
Speaker 4: Colts while doing it. And then of course the Cowboys,
Speaker 4: My Cowboys beating the Bengals. That was very surprising. Although
Speaker 4: you know, Mike McCarthy now six and two against the
Speaker 4: spread as an underdog without Dak. You know, that's not
Speaker 4: to say that Mike McCarthy is like a great coach,
Speaker 4: because I believe he very much is not. But maybe
Speaker 4: it is to say that Dak isn't as significant in
Speaker 4: that offense as I would have expected him to be.
Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks
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Speaker 1: today in the Apple or Google Play stores. All right, Jason,
Speaker 1: and how about you, what were some of the things
Speaker 1: that you really weren't expecting to see through two weeks
Speaker 1: of this NFL season.
Speaker 2: Well, first, you mentioned the Jets.
Speaker 3: I actually didn't even know the Jets have won that
Speaker 3: game until like probably two or three in the afternoon.
Speaker 3: I was got to the Rams game at that point
Speaker 3: and someone texted me, wow that the Browns were a
Speaker 3: big pick and survivor and I was like, what are
Speaker 3: you talking about the Browns?
Speaker 2: One? Right?
Speaker 3: Oh, so yeah, that was that was news to me.
Speaker 3: I think Detroit obviously has been a story so far.
Speaker 3: They look, you know, like they're they're on the up.
Speaker 3: Philadelphia has has been impressive so far through the game
Speaker 3: and a half.
Speaker 2: I got to watch them, and then Tampa.
Speaker 3: I was really, really, really down on Tampa coming into
Speaker 3: the season and they're two and zero and favorites in
Speaker 3: Week three against Green Bay. So as usual, I've I've
Speaker 3: been wrong about Tampa. You know, I've been wrong about
Speaker 3: Tom Brady just about every every season.
Speaker 2: I continue to do.
Speaker 1: So it's so hard, he's forty five. At some point
Speaker 1: you're just like, come on, he has to fall off.
Speaker 1: Maybe it is this year now, Like, I'm a little
Speaker 1: worried about this team moving forward with obviously no Godwin
Speaker 1: at the moment. Now you have no Mike Evans next weekend,
Speaker 1: viously decided to go into UFC against Marshall Lattimore there
Speaker 1: and without the weapons. Does this team finally slow down?
Speaker 1: It's a question that we're gonna have to ask. But
Speaker 1: one thing that I'm surprised about neither of you brought
Speaker 1: up the Bengals. I really did not have the Bengals
Speaker 1: being zero to two right now and just looking as
Speaker 1: bad as they have. Matt, what do you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's it's a question, is too like
Speaker 4: we all knew or I tell you know, we all knew,
Speaker 4: but like there was this strong sentiment that the Bengals,
Speaker 4: I wouldn't say they were due for regression, but that
Speaker 4: they could struggle this year. And they have an especially hard,
Speaker 4: hard schedule to open the year, you know, in weeks
Speaker 4: two through eight, So you know after Week one right
Speaker 4: weeks two through eight, they have a stretch four or
Speaker 4: five games away, five of seven games away. You know,
Speaker 4: some of their road games aren't all that bad, you know,
Speaker 4: like against the Jets, but it's still on the road.
Speaker 4: And so everyone knew, like, hey, this could be a
Speaker 4: team that even if they improve overall, they could still
Speaker 4: not win as many games as they did last year.
Speaker 4: And it's not just that they like, oh, they've improved
Speaker 4: and had some tough luck. It's just that, like, they're
Speaker 4: not looking better than they were last year, and their
Speaker 4: offensive line, which should ultimately be better than last year's
Speaker 4: unit was, it is taking a while for that unit
Speaker 4: to coalesce. So it's I don't think it's a surprise
Speaker 4: that they have started oh in two, but I think
Speaker 4: it's a surprise in the way in which they have
Speaker 4: started oh and two. You know, like losing against the Steelers, Okay,
Speaker 4: a divisional opponent in Week one. You know, anything can
Speaker 4: kind of happen in that situation, and you think before
Speaker 4: the season, okay, losing on the road to the Cowboys,
Speaker 4: you think, yeah, like you could see how they lose
Speaker 4: that game. But you know, losing to Mitch Trubisky when
Speaker 4: he looks horrible, and losing to Cooper Rush that doesn't
Speaker 4: like jive with how it was that we imagine this
Speaker 4: would go down.
Speaker 1: I'm out here going now, Okay, they go into Week three,
Speaker 1: They're playing the Jets in New York. I was gonna
Speaker 1: pick this team for my Survivor this week, and all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, I'm looking over the shoulder, like, I
Speaker 1: don't think the Jets are gonna win two games in
Speaker 1: a row. That's not a very Jets thing to do.
Speaker 1: But I don't know, are you thinking that maybe is
Speaker 1: there a risk here? I'm probably not gonna play them
Speaker 1: in Survivor, but could the Bengals start zero to three? Jason,
Speaker 1: what do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah? I bet the Jets this weekend.
Speaker 3: I bet the Bengals missed the playoffs this week after
Speaker 3: starting hing two.
Speaker 2: I think they're in a really bad spot.
Speaker 3: Matt pointed out, they're unfavorable scheduling situations. That's something I
Speaker 3: have circled as well. So like, this week is their
Speaker 3: second of a back to back road road games, So
Speaker 3: I'm really happy to take the Jets as a dog
Speaker 3: at home here.
Speaker 2: The other thing, what is it?
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow has been sacked like seven times a game,
Speaker 3: both both games to start the season. That is a
Speaker 3: lot of sacks. You extrapolate that over the entire season,
Speaker 3: that would be over one hundred sacks. Not that that's
Speaker 3: going to happen, because if he gets anywhere close to
Speaker 3: that number, he's gonna be out injured because that's just
Speaker 3: such an unsustainable amount of hits for a professional quarterback
Speaker 3: to take. So there is a lot of stuff I
Speaker 3: don't like going with Cincinnati. They're bad offensive line, the
Speaker 3: unsustainability of the hits, Joe Burrows taking starting zero in two,
Speaker 3: another back to back road trip coming up to Baltimore
Speaker 3: and New Orleans. I think it is, you know, two
Speaker 3: teams that aren't going to take it easy on them
Speaker 3: on defense at all.
Speaker 2: So a lot of negatives going for the Bengals.
Speaker 3: Not to mention that Zach Zach what's the name, Zach
Speaker 3: Taylor is the head coach. You know, maybe last year
Speaker 3: just was a whole string of lucky. They got the
Speaker 3: Raiders in the playoffs, they beat the Titans, and they
Speaker 3: got really lucky against the Chiefs. You know that that
Speaker 3: took a whole bunch of things and missed field goals
Speaker 3: and whatnot to even get to the to the super Bowl.
Speaker 3: So now they're coming off this this extended playoff run.
Speaker 3: They have a bad offensive line, wouldn't even surprise me
Speaker 3: my boldest pick. I just wrote about this this this
Speaker 3: week for Viisen. Actually, I bet the Bengals to have
Speaker 3: the worst record in the NFL at fifty to one.
Speaker 3: I think that's way too high, especially when you look
Speaker 3: at the schedule. They got the Bills, they got Tampa Bay.
Speaker 3: They don't have a lot of easy games in the pipeline,
Speaker 3: so things go south in Cincinnati. They can go south quickly,
Speaker 3: and the Bengals can be the bung Goals again, you know,
Speaker 3: before we know it.
Speaker 4: Well, that's I mean, fifty to one for the Bengals
Speaker 4: to have the worst record in the league. I'm wondering
Speaker 4: so obviously like kind of wide range of outcomes with
Speaker 4: how things could could unfold with this team. Wide range
Speaker 4: may be skewed towards the downside with them. I'm wondering
Speaker 4: how much you have adjusted your assumptions about the baseline
Speaker 4: for this team so week over week I've bumped them
Speaker 4: down zero point five points relative to where I had
Speaker 4: them previously. Honestly, I was attempted to bump them down
Speaker 4: a little bit more, but that just felt like I
Speaker 4: would be too aggressive. But how how are you like
Speaker 4: viewing this team in a vacuum.
Speaker 3: Well, remember that they're fortunate in the fact that every
Speaker 3: other team in their division right now is one and one,
Speaker 3: and you know, a win this week puts them, you know,
Speaker 3: turn turns things around, you know, fairly quickly, at least
Speaker 3: in terms of, you know, attempting to make the playoffs
Speaker 3: and win the division.
Speaker 2: And all that stuff.
Speaker 3: But you mentioned range of outcomes, and it's just if
Speaker 3: they if they lose this week, their situation is not
Speaker 3: great at zero to three. With Miami come into town,
Speaker 3: you know, it's just a hard offense to defend against.
Speaker 3: Then they go they have the back to back road
Speaker 3: trip I mentioned Baltimore and New Orleans. They get a
Speaker 3: little bit the easiest sort of chunk of their schedule
Speaker 3: with with Atlanta and uh, what's it called the Browns
Speaker 3: without Deshaun Watson, and they get Carolina. But after that
Speaker 3: second half of the season's absolute bloodbath starts at after
Speaker 3: the bye week, they they're at Pittsburgh at Tennessee, they
Speaker 3: get Kansas City, Cleveland at home with Deshaun Watson, at
Speaker 3: Tampa Bay at New England. Late in the season, Buffalo
Speaker 3: and Baltimore. You know those are all, you know, not
Speaker 3: not easy games, especially when you have a quarterback that's
Speaker 3: getting smashed on a weekly basis.
Speaker 2: So just range of outcomes, things go south. They go
Speaker 2: south quickly. Here.
Speaker 3: I'm not even convinced Zach Taylor makes it through the
Speaker 3: whole season if it if it goes as bad as
Speaker 3: it could. If I was looking for a cheap first
Speaker 3: coach fired, I would pick Zac Taylor at a big number.
Speaker 2: I didn't see that today I was looking for it. Though.
Speaker 1: It is worth remembering this team's only two years removed
Speaker 1: from what another first overall pick or dam They.
Speaker 3: Weren't very good, They got very good very quickly, and
Speaker 3: then a lot of luck played into that. It just,
Speaker 3: you know, like this, This team lost to the Jets
Speaker 3: as recently as last year.
Speaker 2: Don't don't forget that.
Speaker 3: They I like Joe Burrow a lot, but the unsustainability
Speaker 3: of him continuing to get hit is a major thing.
Speaker 3: That's that's not really being talked about a lot right now.
Speaker 1: Shout out to Mike White. Now, guys, is the are
Speaker 1: the Bengals the team that is dropping the furthest in
Speaker 1: your power rankings right now? Or is there someone that
Speaker 1: you were looking at with an even more negative light
Speaker 1: after two weeks of the season, Matt, Yeah.
Speaker 4: There were a number of teams that I dropped down
Speaker 4: this week, all point five points. The Rams don't look
Speaker 4: like the Rams of last year, or maybe you know,
Speaker 4: it's just say the Rams last year were very streaky,
Speaker 4: and they you know, they put a good run of
Speaker 4: games together. But you know, any any good team can
Speaker 4: lose to the Bills. That's fine. Refusing to close out
Speaker 4: the Falcons was pretty concerning. Also the Denver Broncos. I mean,
Speaker 4: I think Russell Wilson is not the Russell Wilson of
Speaker 4: five years ago. And the head coach that they have
Speaker 4: is definitely not the head coach they want to have
Speaker 4: next year. It's a really negative situation. I've also downgraded
Speaker 4: the Colts, who I'm just sorry. Like the Jags, Okay,
Speaker 4: maybe they're better than we thought they were, But if
Speaker 4: all it takes is losing one wide receiver and one
Speaker 4: mindbacker for you to get beat by twenty four points
Speaker 4: by the Jags, you're not as good as everyone thought
Speaker 4: you were. The Titans, that that's obvious. Uh, And then
Speaker 4: the Steelers, you know, like I want to like this team.
Speaker 4: They've got a lot of grit. Uh, They've got a
Speaker 4: I think an underappreciated defense, but they have Mitch Trubisky
Speaker 4: a quarterback, and I just I have to downgrade them. Honestly,
Speaker 4: I thought this number should be three, you know, looking
Speaker 4: ahead towards week three, uh Thursday night football. Uh, you
Speaker 4: know with the Browns, I thought the number should have
Speaker 4: been three. I think it was three in the look
Speaker 4: ahead market. It's now I think like five. Uh So
Speaker 4: I'm probably I'm probably still too high on the Steelers
Speaker 4: to be honest.
Speaker 1: I I personally think that the problem is losing TJ.
Speaker 1: Watt because that that team is what zero to five
Speaker 1: now in games where Watt doesn't play, that defense really
Speaker 1: struggles to function once he's once he's out.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And then on the offensive side, like you said, no,
Speaker 1: Mitch Trubisky is not the answer. And eventually you have
Speaker 1: to think sooner rather than later, Kenny baby hands pick
Speaker 1: it has to be getting the call to go to
Speaker 1: get on the field and start playing more.
Speaker 2: Right, I don't think, I hope.
Speaker 3: I don't think Kenny Pickett's gonna play much this season.
Speaker 3: They've been They've been pretty public that he's gonna sit
Speaker 3: on the bench and learn, and it would be very
Speaker 3: un Steelers like for them to all of a sudden
Speaker 3: change their mind and just throw them in, especially early
Speaker 3: in the season. If things get away from them, you know,
Speaker 3: maybe he starts a couple of games late, but I
Speaker 3: don't see them, you know, taking the team away from Trabitsky.
Speaker 3: And I think, uh, this Week two game against the Patriots,
Speaker 3: it was just a bad spot in general, coming off
Speaker 3: the Week one overtime, so it didn't surprise me that
Speaker 3: they came out flat there. I wouldn't write the Steelers
Speaker 3: off just yet, though I bet them to win the
Speaker 3: division at ten to one before the season.
Speaker 2: I think the TJ.
Speaker 3: Watt injury really sucks, though, but still earlier I don't think.
Speaker 3: I don't think I would just totally write off everything
Speaker 3: they're doing.
Speaker 2: Give it, give it some more time.
Speaker 1: I'm still holding out hope on my thirty three to
Speaker 1: one Mike Tomlin Coach of the Year ticket. The hope
Speaker 1: is not completely dead just yet, but it's it's on
Speaker 1: life support. The flip side of it is, with all
Speaker 1: these injuries, if they make it to the playoffs, I
Speaker 1: feel like I have a great chance, they just have
Speaker 1: to get there. But sorry, go, no, you go.
Speaker 3: I'd say, I don't think Coach of the Year is
Speaker 3: going to matter if the Bills go fifteen and two.
Speaker 3: You know, Sean McDermott, I actually bet some of that today.
Speaker 3: But I agree with most of what Matt said about
Speaker 3: the Rams. I've down downgraded them. I thought, even even
Speaker 3: coming off that win against the Falcons, they easily could
Speaker 3: have lost that game.
Speaker 2: They got lucky, not only late in the game, but
Speaker 2: they got lucky.
Speaker 3: Early in the game that the first possession was a
Speaker 3: turnover on turnover on downs or missed field goal or whatever.
Speaker 3: There were a lot of situations I think that the
Speaker 3: Falcons could have taken advantage and scored more points in
Speaker 3: that game early. Besides the Rams, though, I also have
Speaker 3: downgraded the Titans a bit. Basically, all the O and
Speaker 3: two teams a downgrade for me, but the Titans and
Speaker 3: the Bengals, I think, you know, I could almost guarantee
Speaker 3: you one of those two teams is not at the
Speaker 3: playoffs this year.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's a pretty safe bet. I
Speaker 1: was low on the Titans going into the season, but
Speaker 1: I'm kicking myself right now because I did not pick
Speaker 1: the Texans eighty to one. I talked about it, I
Speaker 1: danced around it. I never took the Texans to win
Speaker 1: that division at eighty to one, and I really really
Speaker 1: wish I had. But man, the teams at the top there,
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Colts both just look like garbage
Speaker 1: right now. Matt already talked about it a little bit
Speaker 1: with Okay, you lose Michael Pittman, you lose Shaquille Leonard,
Speaker 1: But twenty four points to the Jags, especially when you
Speaker 1: have that game marked on the calendar after what happened
Speaker 1: at the end of last season. Is it time to panic?
Speaker 1: Jason on the Colts? Are you writing them off completely?
Speaker 1: And if so, can we just not give out a
Speaker 1: division winner in the AFC South.
Speaker 3: I'm not writing them off completely, but I am unimpressed
Speaker 3: with them.
Speaker 2: I did have the Jaguars week two.
Speaker 3: You know, it's it's not a terrible, terrible spot to
Speaker 3: be in. I guess oh one and one is still
Speaker 3: better than oh and two, especially in that division when
Speaker 3: you know no one's gonna really run away with it.
Speaker 3: I don't like the Texans very much, just because Lovey
Speaker 3: Smith seems to kind of go into turtle mode late
Speaker 3: in the games, and he's he's very very unaggressive. I
Speaker 3: just like, like, I want I want him to be
Speaker 3: more aggressive. And I understand, you know, maybe he feels
Speaker 3: limited what he could do with Davis Mills or whatever.
Speaker 3: But you know, I'm not I'm not into this team
Speaker 3: at all. UH division totally up for grabs. I like
Speaker 3: the Jaguars, though, I think Trevor Lawrence's is what's up
Speaker 3: in that division.
Speaker 1: I feel like a lot of people kind of forgot
Speaker 1: about him after last year and are forgetting that, Hey,
Speaker 1: urban Meyer was probably not the best guy to help
Speaker 1: develop him. And also it's not like he didn't have
Speaker 1: just such astounding college career. You know, this guy has
Speaker 1: the talent, and now we're starting to see a little
Speaker 1: bit more of that come to fruition under Doug Peterson.
Speaker 1: But one team we haven't talked about so far. Maybe
Speaker 1: it's because I know I was a little higher on
Speaker 1: them than most and now they're dealing with a whole
Speaker 1: host of problems. But the Saints, they obviously were a
Speaker 1: mixed bag. You came out in Week one, you were okay,
Speaker 1: and then in Week two against the Bucks, the offense
Speaker 1: was a no show. Jamis was back to throwing his interceptions.
Speaker 1: How concerned are you guys about this team, especially with
Speaker 1: the fact that apparently Jamis Winston is playing with no
Speaker 1: back right now, Matt, where do you have the Saints?
Speaker 4: You know? I actually I bumped the Saints up a
Speaker 4: little after their Week two performance. I thought they they
Speaker 4: looked pretty good. You know, they might be frustrating, but
Speaker 4: they hung with the Bucks. And the Bucks have a
Speaker 4: great defense, maybe the best defense in the league, certainly
Speaker 4: top three, and it was only after Lattimore was ejected
Speaker 4: that the Bucks were able to do more on offense.
Speaker 4: But I think that was really a pretty close game,
Speaker 4: and given that the Saints were able to hang the
Speaker 4: way that they were, I think that they're deserve an
Speaker 4: upgrade after that. So I still have them as a,
Speaker 4: you know, a kind of like league average team on
Speaker 4: a neutral field. But I don't know. The defense doesn't
Speaker 4: doesn't worry me at all. It might be the inconsistency
Speaker 4: with Jamis Winston in the back issues, but the inconsistency
Speaker 4: gives them a really wide range of outcomes.
Speaker 1: Jason, how about you? In the eights, I think.
Speaker 3: Tays from Hill is their best chance to be a
Speaker 3: playoff contender at quarterback.
Speaker 2: You know, I really thought they should have put him
Speaker 2: in more in that game.
Speaker 3: And like Matt said, I mean, anytime you hold a
Speaker 3: good NFL team to three points through three quarters, we're
Speaker 3: doing something right. And uh, I mean the Bucks should
Speaker 3: be more concerned through their first eight quarters. They didn't
Speaker 3: look great against the Cowboys defense. They didn't look great
Speaker 3: against the Saints defense. It wasn't until Marshaun Lattimore got
Speaker 3: ejected that you know that the Saints kind of came
Speaker 3: alive with a little bit of help from Jamis Winston,
Speaker 3: you know, throwing some some easy interceptions to to the
Speaker 3: Bucks defense as well. So all all around, I think
Speaker 3: this is the same Saints team we've seen for the
Speaker 3: last couple of years. It's it's got, you know, players
Speaker 3: all across the board. They're strong, you know, Kamara, Michael
Speaker 3: Thomas is back, they added uh, Chris Olave the wide
Speaker 3: receiver rookie.
Speaker 2: They got a lot going for them.
Speaker 3: They got a strong defense, continuity with the coaching staff
Speaker 3: more or less.
Speaker 2: But it's the quarterback.
Speaker 3: It's just Jameis Winston is not going to be the
Speaker 3: cou It's gonna win you these games and until they
Speaker 3: figure that out, and I don't know. Like I said,
Speaker 3: I think Taysom Hill is the answer. It's clear they
Speaker 3: don't think he is. But I would love to see
Speaker 3: him get a real shot at playing quarterback healthy, because
Speaker 3: you know, playing that sort of hybrid tight end running
Speaker 3: quarterback thing and it just doesn't get him enough touches
Speaker 3: to use him the way he should be used. I
Speaker 3: think he needs to be full time starting quarterback and
Speaker 3: you know, see see how the team plays with him
Speaker 3: in the lineup healthy.
Speaker 1: Sean Payton is cheering on listening to this podcast in
Speaker 1: his car right now. Matt. I don't know though that
Speaker 1: that's a take right there. They tried the storm and
Speaker 1: Mormon a bit last year. Wasn't necessarily the most successful thing.
Speaker 1: But Matt, he was.
Speaker 2: Real injured last year though, too. He wasn't one healthy.
Speaker 1: That is true, Matt. What do you think? Uh?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I respectfully disagree. I mean, I think the I
Speaker 4: think the thing with Taysom Hill is that like as
Speaker 4: wide as wide as the jamis Winston range of outcomes is,
Speaker 4: it's even wider with Taysom Hill. And so the fact
Speaker 4: that he is a quarterback who is unconventional, means that
Speaker 4: like the defensive game planning is harder for him that week. Uh,
Speaker 4: and so that could give the Saints an edge. But
Speaker 4: I think that, uh he it would It wouldn't take
Speaker 4: long before in a sort of t Bowt esque type
Speaker 4: of fashion, he would be exposed.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 4: Maybe I'm just wrong, you know, maybe I'm wrong, But
Speaker 4: I think Winston or like even Andy Dalton as the
Speaker 4: number two. Like if Winston were injured and out, Dalton
Speaker 4: would be the guy to come in and not Taysom Hill.
Speaker 4: And I think Dalton probably has like the higher floor, Uh,
Speaker 4: Taysom Hill probably. It feels so wrong to say Tasom
Speaker 4: Hill probably has the higher ceiling relative to Dalton.
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Speaker 1: apply see Sleeper Dot comfort details. I don't think that
Speaker 1: you can replay I'm with you. I don't think you
Speaker 1: can replace Jamis with Dalton. If you were gonna make
Speaker 1: a change, I think you do try the Taysom Hill experiment,
Speaker 1: but I personally think you give Jamis a little more time.
Speaker 1: I think the back injury is having a serious effect here,
Speaker 1: and that's not the only injury that I'm worried about
Speaker 1: going into this next week. Guys, what about the Chargers
Speaker 1: because apparently now Justin Herbert is dealing with rib injury.
Speaker 1: They say that he should be able to play, and
Speaker 1: he should be okay, but I'm still scared, especially because
Speaker 1: I don't know if they fired that doctor from the
Speaker 1: other season or not. Matt, how concerned you about Justin Herbert?
Speaker 1: Not just potential threat of life, but ability to play football?
Speaker 4: Whoever it was who injected Tara Taylor. That guy no
Speaker 4: longer is with the team. Hopefully, certainly let's keep him
Speaker 4: away from the ribs of Justin Herbert. I'm not as
Speaker 4: worried about Justin Herbert maybe as I should be. I
Speaker 4: think he plays in Week three, especially with the three
Speaker 4: extra days of rest. Deepak Shona, who's our injury expert
Speaker 4: at Fantasy pros, He suggested that this injury is more
Speaker 4: about pain than about anything else, and that the pain
Speaker 4: can be managed. You know, but this line it opened
Speaker 4: at seven the look aheadline I believe was nine nine
Speaker 4: and a half and in the regular season, sorry, in
Speaker 4: the preseason market, this number was ten, and so having
Speaker 4: it at seven just feels a little bit short. I
Speaker 4: actually I project it for around nine, and so I
Speaker 4: think that there's some value here. And maybe the reason
Speaker 4: why it's seven has something to do with the Justin
Speaker 4: Herbert injury. I think it also has to do with
Speaker 4: maybe some Jags enthusiasm, and maybe the also the desire
Speaker 4: not to trust Brandon Staley as much as we previously
Speaker 4: had because he's just not going to be as aggressive
Speaker 4: and that would maybe mean just fewer points all around
Speaker 4: for the team. So maybe you put all that together
Speaker 4: and seven is a better number than the look ahead
Speaker 4: we had at nine. But I'm just I'm not too
Speaker 4: worried about the Justin Herbert ribs component of this.
Speaker 1: Jason, I know you're a Rams fan, but what do
Speaker 1: you think about the other team in LA I'm a.
Speaker 3: Little worried about his ribs. I mean, he did not
Speaker 3: look like he was throwing. You know, he was in
Speaker 3: a lot of pain at the end of that game.
Speaker 3: Getting us to cover there now, gotta thank.
Speaker 2: Him for that.
Speaker 3: But I'm not super impressed with Brandon Staley's game management.
Speaker 3: Haven't been since the Week seventeen overtime game that I
Speaker 3: still wish had ended in a tie for many, many reasons,
Speaker 3: mostly financial. But you know, I think i've I just
Speaker 3: haven't been impressed with the way he's managed end of
Speaker 3: game situations.
Speaker 2: And the Chargers tend.
Speaker 3: To be one of those teams kind of like the Lions,
Speaker 3: where I always joke, it doesn't matter what the score is,
Speaker 3: just let me know who has the ball in the
Speaker 3: final possession, because these games always come down to the end.
Speaker 3: I really like their defense. I bet Khalil Mack to
Speaker 3: have the most stacks. I bet him to win Defensive
Speaker 3: Player of the Year. You know, I think he's it's
Speaker 3: like thirty one, so he's slightly on the wrong side
Speaker 3: of the defensive player of your age curve. But I
Speaker 3: like his situation and the fact that he can get
Speaker 3: double digit sacks in this defense. But you know, I
Speaker 3: think I think it's It's been popular the last couple
Speaker 3: of years to pick against Kansas City and try to
Speaker 3: find reasons why they're not gonna sustain success, and through
Speaker 3: two weeks they look as good as they they normally do,
Speaker 3: and probably the only thing overshadowing them is the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 3: Otherwise we'd be saying Kansas City is the best team
Speaker 3: in the AFC.
Speaker 1: Again, and Matt, what do you think about Kansas City?
Speaker 1: That's not necessarily where I was thinking of going next,
Speaker 1: but it's a great point. There were people writing their
Speaker 1: demise with the loss of Tyreek Hill. Have you been
Speaker 1: impressed with what this team has been able to do?
Speaker 1: Is it that they haven't had a truly challenging game yet?
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on Kansas City? Where are they
Speaker 1: in your rankings right now?
Speaker 4: I mean they're number two. I totally agree with Jason,
Speaker 4: and if you look at you know, some of the
Speaker 4: the more advanced numbers, they're you know, top two, even
Speaker 4: top one, top one, number one offense in the league,
Speaker 4: and Patrick Mahomes is number one in EPA and completion
Speaker 4: percentage over expectation, you know, composite metric. So I still
Speaker 4: think that the Chiefs are it's hard to say that
Speaker 4: they are the better team than the Bills like they are,
Speaker 4: they are not, but I still think that they are
Speaker 4: right right there, and I do think that they are
Speaker 4: still underappreciated within the market so very much with Spreadipedia
Speaker 4: there on on the Chiefs. But yeah, I will say
Speaker 4: that I still have them a tier below the Bills.
Speaker 4: Like I want to put the Chiefs up in that tier,
Speaker 4: but like I still haven't been able to do it yet.
Speaker 1: Now, guys, this next team that I want to talk
Speaker 1: about here, I had in the rundown from before last night,
Speaker 1: and see if you can spot the issue with them. Now,
Speaker 1: the Vikings. They looked fantastic in Week one against the Packers,
Speaker 1: and then last night against the Eagles happened primetime Kirk
Speaker 1: Cousins came back out and we were reminded of, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe this team does have some limitations here. To me,
Speaker 1: after one week, I was ready to put them a
Speaker 1: top three spot on my board, right behind as one
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the NFC and in the
Speaker 1: NFC in general. All of a sudden, now I'm actually
Speaker 1: taking what happened last night and saying this impacts my
Speaker 1: evaluation of the Packers more than the Vikings. I think
Speaker 1: the Vikings are still pretty good and they're gonna be
Speaker 1: better games for Kirk Cousins than this one. But now
Speaker 1: I'm looking back at the Packers through two weeks and saying, Okay,
Speaker 1: I think this team seriously does have some big issues still,
Speaker 1: especially in the passing game. Without Devonte Adams, even with
Speaker 1: Allen Lazard back, what's striking to me. I don't think
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to move the football down the
Speaker 1: field as quickly and efficiently as they used to. They
Speaker 1: have to lean on that running game a lot more.
Speaker 1: And I think it's gonna do fine when they're playing
Speaker 1: teams like the Bears. I don't think that they're gonna
Speaker 1: do as well when they have to come up against
Speaker 1: some of these bigger offenses like a Chiefs, Bucks or Bills.
Speaker 1: Where are you guys going on the Packers right now?
Speaker 1: And then also the Vikings after that game?
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I would like to get to get Jason's
Speaker 4: thoughts on the Packers here. I'm of the opinion that
Speaker 4: what we saw in Week one had more to do
Speaker 4: with circumstances than with the Packers themselves or with the Vikings.
Speaker 4: You know, without their left tackle, without their right tackle,
Speaker 4: without their number one wide receiver, without their two top
Speaker 4: receivers from last season, and then their left guard suffers
Speaker 4: a concussion in the middle of the game, and you know,
Speaker 4: for whatever reason, they were playing a very suboptimal defense
Speaker 4: zone like soft zone against the Vikings, and so Justin
Speaker 4: Jefferson was able to get a lot of whatever he
Speaker 4: wanted in that game. In week two, they got back
Speaker 4: Alan Wizzard, they got back right tackle Elston Jenkins, they
Speaker 4: got back left guard John Running, and I think sooner
Speaker 4: or later they're going to get back left tackle David Baktiari,
Speaker 4: and that wide receiver unit is going to start to coalesce.
Speaker 4: I do agree with you. The offense will be different.
Speaker 4: They will be more run focused, and in the passing game,
Speaker 4: I think they will focus more on the shorter passing game,
Speaker 4: more passes to running backs, which, like that's not the
Speaker 4: most efficient way to function, but I still think it
Speaker 4: will be a pretty good offense tom As you know,
Speaker 4: I was low on the Vikings entering the year, and
Speaker 4: so I did bump them up pretty significantly after week one,
Speaker 4: but I haven't adjusted them at all after week two
Speaker 4: because I was already low on them. So I viewed
Speaker 4: them as being about a point better than average on
Speaker 4: a neutral field, and I am I'm fine with that.
Speaker 4: I do think that given given that they have Aaron Rodgers,
Speaker 4: given the success that they've had. The Green Bay Packers
Speaker 4: are still one of the top you know, eight, top
Speaker 4: six teams in the league.
Speaker 1: Jason, how about you? Where are you going on? First
Speaker 1: the Packers and then the Vikings.
Speaker 2: Didn't really worry me week one. They did the same
Speaker 2: thing last year.
Speaker 3: I think, you know, when when you have a veteran
Speaker 3: quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, you can throw out week run
Speaker 3: week one results. And like Matt said, they were missing
Speaker 3: starting tackles, and you know, those are all big deals. Especially,
Speaker 3: I think we frequently don't pay attention to offensive line
Speaker 3: injuries as much as we should, you know, for handicap
Speaker 3: and purposes.
Speaker 2: I think especially that's something.
Speaker 3: That that people people don't you know, amateur handicappers probably
Speaker 3: don't pay enough attention to It's something that could significantly
Speaker 3: help them long term. But you know, line linemen are
Speaker 3: a very important part of the game, even though they rarely,
Speaker 3: if ever get mentioned or touched the ball. Not worried
Speaker 3: about the Packers, I am less impressed with the the
Speaker 3: the Vikings after last night. You know, I think the
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson Offensive Player of the Year crowd got a
Speaker 3: rude awakening last night. I bet Stephan Diggs actually Offensive
Speaker 3: Player of the Year after two weeks. I think I
Speaker 3: think that there's a lot of proxy value on the
Speaker 3: Bills via different awards at the moment other than m
Speaker 3: VP that was that was one of them. But I
Speaker 3: think you know that there was a lot of talk
Speaker 3: about that them just the Rams offense, the coach coming
Speaker 3: over and everything just clicking. But the reality is Kirk
Speaker 3: Cousins is Kirk Cousins, and he's another guy.
Speaker 2: He's like a.
Speaker 3: Jamis Winston where he's just in that tier of quarterbacks.
Speaker 3: Like are you really excited to have a playoff run
Speaker 3: with him? Do you really think he's gonna win you
Speaker 3: a super Bowl?
Speaker 2: Like he might.
Speaker 3: Everything might click and you might a Bengals like run,
Speaker 3: but it's not happening. You know, Like I'm not I'm
Speaker 3: a Packers fan, I'm not a Vikings fan, but you
Speaker 3: know I can always look over at Minnesota and be like, haha,
Speaker 3: you have Kirk Cousins and they got no defense. At
Speaker 3: the end of the day, it's you know they would
Speaker 3: might you know, anyone any Vikings fan who tells you
Speaker 3: they wouldn't take Aaron Rodgers right now is bualt face liar.
Speaker 1: The way I put it with Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins
Speaker 1: is a bus driver. That is all he's going to
Speaker 1: be good at for you. You can trust him most
Speaker 1: of the time to get the kids to school, like
Speaker 1: you can trust him in charge of the school bus.
Speaker 1: You're not handing him the keys to a NASCAR to
Speaker 1: to a NASCAR ride and say go out and win
Speaker 1: this race. He's not going to be on that level
Speaker 1: for you. He's a game manager and you need a
Speaker 1: great team around him to make him the best that
Speaker 1: he can be. And then even when you get that,
Speaker 1: and yes, there were some problems last night. One of
Speaker 1: the interceptions not really his fault with with Justin Jefferson
Speaker 1: running the wrong kind of route and then yed Irv
Speaker 1: Smith dropping a touchdown. There were moments that weren't his fault,
Speaker 1: but it's not like he looked good and he especially
Speaker 1: imploded late and that gives me a lot of cause
Speaker 1: for worry. Like you said, he's not going to be
Speaker 1: able to go up against the top teams and be
Speaker 1: the difference maker that you need him to, you know, Matt, Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Matt.
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, you know he's Kirk Cousins That basically says
Speaker 4: it all.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, right now, if you were to be
Speaker 1: making a future's bet, if you were to be hopping
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Speaker 1: wanted to put it on an NFL future, what would
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Speaker 1: code betting Pros. Matt, what's your future?
Speaker 4: I honestly don't know if I have one specific future
Speaker 4: that I would be looking at, but I do know
Speaker 4: that you know, MVP tends to be it's a quarterback award,
Speaker 4: and it tends to be very correlated to passing efficiency stats.
Speaker 4: And Patrick Mahomes is still the number one quarterback in
Speaker 4: passing efficiency or based on a lot of the stats
Speaker 4: that you could look at, and that Chiefs team still
Speaker 4: has a pretty good chance to finish as the number
Speaker 4: one seed or the number two seed in the AFC.
Speaker 4: And I think there is a lot of heat for
Speaker 4: the Buffalo Bills, and like I understand it, I think
Speaker 4: they are the superior team. But I do think that
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes will probably be discounted in the MVP market
Speaker 4: as long as we see as long as we see
Speaker 4: Josh Allen continue to perform at a pretty high level.
Speaker 4: But like I could see Patrick Mahomes basically stocking Josh
Speaker 4: Allen for a lot of the season and then all
Speaker 4: it takes is one bad Josh Allen performance in prime
Speaker 4: time and then all of a sudden, Patrick Mahomes looks
Speaker 4: like the clear MVP. So I do think that Patrick
Speaker 4: Mahomes right now relative to Josh Allen offers value.
Speaker 1: This is Joe Flacco erasure, but I guess I'll let
Speaker 1: it stand. Jason, how about you, Is there a future
Speaker 1: that you have your eye on?
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I think Matt's right with with Mahomes. I've
Speaker 3: tended to bet a little bit on Mahomes every week
Speaker 3: of the season the last couple of years. You know,
Speaker 3: it's always kind of one of those things. He is
Speaker 3: so good on a regular basis, I think we take
Speaker 3: for granted how good he actually is. You know, we're
Speaker 3: just kind of immune to the greatness. After a while
Speaker 3: Mahomes is just top tier. He's one of the best
Speaker 3: quarterbacks I've ever seen, So yeah, you get value there.
Speaker 3: And the thing is with a lot of these these
Speaker 3: awards markets. You know, in baseball, you know there's there's
Speaker 3: ten pictures at the beginning of the year you can
Speaker 3: make cases for. There's plenty of players to make arguments
Speaker 3: for for MVP or Rookie.
Speaker 2: Of the Year.
Speaker 3: In the NFL, the pool kind of thins itself out
Speaker 3: pretty quickly, and it's it's not like you have to
Speaker 3: really go down deep and say, oh, well, I found
Speaker 3: one hundred and one long shot. I found a two
Speaker 3: hundred and one long shot. There aren't any long shots.
Speaker 3: There's there's no price discovery, there's no you know, the
Speaker 3: market's pretty pretty shaped with the futures. So you know
Speaker 3: you're not getting value on Jalen Hurts at eight to one.
Speaker 3: You're not getting value on too at eighteen to one
Speaker 3: or whatever.
Speaker 2: Probably right on my homes.
Speaker 3: But I would if I was using a free bet,
Speaker 3: I'd want something a bigger odds. I'd look maybe at
Speaker 3: the Bengals, like I mentioned, to have the worst record.
Speaker 3: If you can get you know, ninety to now, sorry,
Speaker 3: fifty to one is what it was. You know, I
Speaker 3: always like using a free bet for something at big
Speaker 3: odds offensive Player of the Year. I mentioned Stefan Diggs.
Speaker 3: I think getting getting exposure to the Bills. You know,
Speaker 3: you're not going to get a good price on them
Speaker 3: to win the AFC or the Super Bowl point, but
Speaker 3: offensive player of the Year on a guy like Diggs
Speaker 3: who's currently leading in the league and touchdown catches, you
Speaker 3: know you can get him like seven to one most
Speaker 3: touchdown catches as well. I think that's not a terrible
Speaker 3: bet with the amount of times he's going to be
Speaker 3: targeted in that offense. So you know, if you want
Speaker 3: Bill's exposure, I think that's the way to go. Or
Speaker 3: Sean McDermott Coach of the Year, those are all sort
Speaker 3: of proxies for Bill's being best team in the league
Speaker 3: right now.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the idea. I like the idea of
Speaker 4: Stefan Diggs as Offensive Player of the Year plus eight
Speaker 4: point fifty right now at bet mgm.
Speaker 2: B.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a pretty good number. I might be placing
Speaker 1: that right after this. I had him anytime touchdown score
Speaker 1: last night and now I so wish that those compounded
Speaker 1: How great would that be if you get paid out
Speaker 1: three times on a hat trick like that?
Speaker 3: Well you could bet him to score three touchdowns.
Speaker 1: You could, but I didn't really want to do that
Speaker 1: because I wasn't expecting him to be I wasn't expecting
Speaker 1: that amazing of her performance. But still I will to
Speaker 1: happily take my winnings there, and guys, I will happily
Speaker 1: say that it has been a great episode. Jason, thank
Speaker 1: you so much for coming on with us. Where can
Speaker 1: people find the great work you're doing around the internet?
Speaker 3: Find me on Viison, you know mon Gill Show usually
Speaker 3: Wednesdays and Friday mornings, have a podcast comes out a
Speaker 3: couple a couple days a week. I do a podcast
Speaker 3: on Fridays with Pat Mao doing touchdown props for the weekend,
Speaker 3: so all.
Speaker 2: Sorts of stuff. You can find me anywhere. Just follow
Speaker 2: me on Twitter basically.
Speaker 1: And of course you can find him on Twitter. At Spreadipedia,
Speaker 1: you can find Matt at Matt f The Oracle, and
Speaker 1: I'm at TV at work, and don't forget to head
Speaker 1: on over to Betting Pros and remember sign up for
Speaker 1: BETMGM account today use the promo code betting Pros and
Speaker 1: you'll get a thousand dollars risk free bet.
Speaker 2: Guys.
Speaker 1: That is gonna do it for us here. Thank you
Speaker 1: again so much for being with us. We'll be back
Speaker 1: on Thursday to break down the weekend slate of NFL action,
Speaker 1: But for now, I'm Tom, He's Matt, and he's Jason,
Speaker 1: and let's cash some tickets, guys,