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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host Thomas Piolin joining me as always none

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Speaker 1: other than the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman, and today to

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Speaker 1: help us break down the reactions to Week two, adjust

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Speaker 1: our power ratings, and see which teams truly are the

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Speaker 1: best and worst going into Week three, none other than

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Speaker 1: Spreadipedia himself Jason Weingarten. Jason, how are you doing today?

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Speaker 2: Pretty good?

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Speaker 3: Nice to talk to you again. I had had fun

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Speaker 3: last time last time I was on the show with you.

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Speaker 1: Absolutely it was great having you on, of course last time.

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Speaker 1: If people want to go back, Baseball season isn't quite

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Speaker 1: over yet. Amazingly, it's not over for the Mets. They

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Speaker 1: they just clinched the playoff spot. But on our last

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Speaker 1: conversation with Jason, we talked about the dangers of no

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Speaker 1: run first innings, how you should probably be betting the

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Speaker 1: yes instead, and a whole bunch of other great conversations.

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Speaker 1: But today, guys, we are talking all about the NFL.

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Speaker 1: It was another wild.

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Speaker 2: Week of action.

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Speaker 1: Three different teams had ninety nine percent or higher win

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Speaker 1: percentage chances and manage to lose their games. Matt, it

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Speaker 1: was a nuts week. But before we get started on it,

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Speaker 1: I want to remind everybody that if you want to

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Speaker 1: win a sign Joe Mix in Cincinnati Bengals jersey courtesy

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Speaker 1: of our friends at Pristine Auction, you need to subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now comment below

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Speaker 1: this video and that's it. We will be announcing a

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Speaker 1: winner right here on the channel, so make sure to

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Speaker 1: turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when

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Speaker 1: new episodes are up and to claim your prize. Now, Matt,

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Speaker 1: let's shift into the forty nine er game here. How

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Speaker 1: far are the Niners going up or down your power

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Speaker 1: rankings based off of that Trey Lance injury. Jimmy g

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Speaker 1: obviously finished the game at quarterback. He's going to be

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Speaker 1: the quarterback the rest of the season. Matt, where are

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Speaker 1: you looking with the forty nine ers? Because they're odds shortened,

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Speaker 1: they are now a more likely Super Bowl winner than

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Speaker 1: they were before Week two because of this injury here,

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Speaker 1: I'm inclined to push them up my power ratings as well.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I moved the Cowboys up pretty significantly. I moved

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Speaker 4: them up a point based on what we saw last week.

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Speaker 4: I maybe had downgraded them too much in the move

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Speaker 4: from Dak Prescott to Cooper Rush. And I should say, like, obviously,

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Speaker 4: like quarterback moves, those are really the only things that

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Speaker 4: should make you move your power ratings significantly weak over week.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, we have a quarterback change here in San Francisco,

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Speaker 4: and I've bumped the forty nine ers up point seventy

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Speaker 4: five points in my power ratings, and honestly, like I kind.

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Speaker 2: Of don't know if it's enough.

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Speaker 4: I feel like, you know, probably Jimmy g is like

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Speaker 4: at least a point better against the spread on a

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Speaker 4: neutral field relative to Trey Lance, who was highly unproven.

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Speaker 4: And you know, say whatever you want about Jimmy Garoppolo

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Speaker 4: since he joined the forty nine ers. You know, twenty seventeen,

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Speaker 4: he was the number four quarterback in the league in

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Speaker 4: completion percentage over expectation and EPA combined. That's not like

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Speaker 4: a perfect metric, but it's a pretty good, you know,

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Speaker 4: like number one is Patrick Mahomes, number two is Drew Brees,

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Speaker 4: number three is to Shaun Watson, and number five is

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Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers. Like for Jimmy Garoppolo to be in that list,

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Speaker 4: it doesn't mean like it's sort of like very clearly

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Speaker 4: like the which one of these guys is not like

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Speaker 4: the others. So it's not to say he's an elite quarterback,

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Speaker 4: but it is to say that within the confines of

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Speaker 4: what he is asked to do, within that Kyle Shanahan system,

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Speaker 4: he can do it pretty well. And so we have

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Speaker 4: a pretty large sample size of knowing what Garoppolo can

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Speaker 4: do within that offense and knowing what the offense can

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Speaker 4: do with Garoppolo as the starting quarterback, and it can

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Speaker 4: function pretty highly. So I have, I want to say,

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Speaker 4: like aggressively, but I've significantly moved up the forty nine

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Speaker 4: ers with the new quarterback situation.

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Speaker 1: Now, Jason, how about you, how are you feeling about

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Speaker 1: this forty nine Ers team moving forward?

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Speaker 2: I think it probably helps them in the short term.

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Speaker 3: Lance was the guy they wanted to develop long term

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Speaker 3: and lead this team on a rookie contract. But they

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Speaker 3: made the right decision keeping Garoppolo and it paid off.

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Speaker 2: It paid off early.

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Speaker 3: I think the locker room is very happy that, you know,

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Speaker 3: Garoppolo is the guy, or at least there is a

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Speaker 3: certain faction of the locker room that probably preferred him

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Speaker 3: to be the starting quarterback to begin with, and you know,

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Speaker 3: I think they're going to probably be a playoff contender

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Speaker 3: this season. Wouldn't surprise me to see him make a

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Speaker 3: run at the division.

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Speaker 1: Again, I'm with you. I think that all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: this team bumps up a lot because of this, And

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Speaker 1: that's not a hot take. It is pretty much the

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Speaker 1: consensus right now. It's been well documented that I am

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Speaker 1: not on the Trey Lance train. Obviously, we hope that

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Speaker 1: he has a speedy recovery and is back and right

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Speaker 1: at him next year. But from a pure football standpoint,

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Speaker 1: this team is better with Jimmy g at the helm.

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Speaker 1: And now all of a sudden, I'm regretting my nine

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Speaker 1: er seven win ticket. But we still have plenty more

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Speaker 1: to get to here. Moving on to some other teams, Guys, again,

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Speaker 1: it was a topsy turvy week, and now we have

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Speaker 1: a two week sample size, we're starting to see, Okay,

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Speaker 1: what was a week one fluke? What might actually be

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Speaker 1: a trend or a pattern here? What were some of

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Speaker 1: the biggest surprises for you out of these week two games?

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Speaker 3: Man?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean big surprises, you know, all the big

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Speaker 4: come from behind victories, the Jets winning outright. Your Jets

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Speaker 4: winning out right, by the way, congratulations on that long

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Speaker 4: suffering Jets fan. The Dolphins coming back from down twenty one,

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Speaker 4: Arizona coming back, Jacksonville winning outright and shutting out the

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Speaker 4: Colts while doing it. And then of course the Cowboys,

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Speaker 4: My Cowboys beating the Bengals. That was very surprising. Although

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Speaker 4: you know, Mike McCarthy now six and two against the

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Speaker 4: spread as an underdog without Dak. You know, that's not

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Speaker 4: to say that Mike McCarthy is like a great coach,

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Speaker 4: because I believe he very much is not. But maybe

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Speaker 4: it is to say that Dak isn't as significant in

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Speaker 4: that offense as I would have expected him to be.

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Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, remember when you're looking for free picks

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Speaker 1: and sports betting advice, bettingpros dot com has you covered

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Speaker 1: today in the Apple or Google Play stores. All right, Jason,

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Speaker 1: and how about you, what were some of the things

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Speaker 1: that you really weren't expecting to see through two weeks

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Speaker 1: of this NFL season.

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Speaker 2: Well, first, you mentioned the Jets.

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Speaker 3: I actually didn't even know the Jets have won that

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Speaker 3: game until like probably two or three in the afternoon.

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Speaker 3: I was got to the Rams game at that point

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Speaker 3: and someone texted me, wow that the Browns were a

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Speaker 3: big pick and survivor and I was like, what are

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Speaker 3: you talking about the Browns?

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Speaker 2: One? Right?

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Speaker 3: Oh, so yeah, that was that was news to me.

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Speaker 3: I think Detroit obviously has been a story so far.

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Speaker 3: They look, you know, like they're they're on the up.

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Speaker 3: Philadelphia has has been impressive so far through the game

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Speaker 3: and a half.

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Speaker 2: I got to watch them, and then Tampa.

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Speaker 3: I was really, really, really down on Tampa coming into

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Speaker 3: the season and they're two and zero and favorites in

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Speaker 3: Week three against Green Bay. So as usual, I've I've

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Speaker 3: been wrong about Tampa. You know, I've been wrong about

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Speaker 3: Tom Brady just about every every season.

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Speaker 2: I continue to do.

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Speaker 1: So it's so hard, he's forty five. At some point

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Speaker 1: you're just like, come on, he has to fall off.

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Speaker 1: Maybe it is this year now, Like, I'm a little

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Speaker 1: worried about this team moving forward with obviously no Godwin

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Speaker 1: at the moment. Now you have no Mike Evans next weekend,

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Speaker 1: viously decided to go into UFC against Marshall Lattimore there

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Speaker 1: and without the weapons. Does this team finally slow down?

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Speaker 1: It's a question that we're gonna have to ask. But

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Speaker 1: one thing that I'm surprised about neither of you brought

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Speaker 1: up the Bengals. I really did not have the Bengals

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Speaker 1: being zero to two right now and just looking as

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Speaker 1: bad as they have. Matt, what do you think?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, it's it's a question, is too like

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Speaker 4: we all knew or I tell you know, we all knew,

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Speaker 4: but like there was this strong sentiment that the Bengals,

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Speaker 4: I wouldn't say they were due for regression, but that

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Speaker 4: they could struggle this year. And they have an especially hard,

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Speaker 4: hard schedule to open the year, you know, in weeks

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Speaker 4: two through eight, So you know after Week one right

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Speaker 4: weeks two through eight, they have a stretch four or

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Speaker 4: five games away, five of seven games away. You know,

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Speaker 4: some of their road games aren't all that bad, you know,

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Speaker 4: like against the Jets, but it's still on the road.

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Speaker 4: And so everyone knew, like, hey, this could be a

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Speaker 4: team that even if they improve overall, they could still

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Speaker 4: not win as many games as they did last year.

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Speaker 4: And it's not just that they like, oh, they've improved

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Speaker 4: and had some tough luck. It's just that, like, they're

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Speaker 4: not looking better than they were last year, and their

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Speaker 4: offensive line, which should ultimately be better than last year's

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Speaker 4: unit was, it is taking a while for that unit

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Speaker 4: to coalesce. So it's I don't think it's a surprise

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Speaker 4: that they have started oh in two, but I think

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Speaker 4: it's a surprise in the way in which they have

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Speaker 4: started oh and two. You know, like losing against the Steelers, Okay,

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Speaker 4: a divisional opponent in Week one. You know, anything can

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Speaker 4: kind of happen in that situation, and you think before

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Speaker 4: the season, okay, losing on the road to the Cowboys,

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Speaker 4: you think, yeah, like you could see how they lose

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Speaker 4: that game. But you know, losing to Mitch Trubisky when

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Speaker 4: he looks horrible, and losing to Cooper Rush that doesn't

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Speaker 4: like jive with how it was that we imagine this

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Speaker 4: would go down.

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Speaker 1: I'm out here going now, Okay, they go into Week three,

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Speaker 1: They're playing the Jets in New York. I was gonna

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Speaker 1: pick this team for my Survivor this week, and all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden, I'm looking over the shoulder, like, I

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Speaker 1: don't think the Jets are gonna win two games in

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Speaker 1: a row. That's not a very Jets thing to do.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know, are you thinking that maybe is

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Speaker 1: there a risk here? I'm probably not gonna play them

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Speaker 1: in Survivor, but could the Bengals start zero to three? Jason,

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Speaker 1: what do you think?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I bet the Jets this weekend.

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Speaker 3: I bet the Bengals missed the playoffs this week after

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Speaker 3: starting hing two.

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Speaker 2: I think they're in a really bad spot.

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Speaker 3: Matt pointed out, they're unfavorable scheduling situations. That's something I

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Speaker 3: have circled as well. So like, this week is their

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Speaker 3: second of a back to back road road games, So

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Speaker 3: I'm really happy to take the Jets as a dog

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Speaker 3: at home here.

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Speaker 2: The other thing, what is it?

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Speaker 3: Joe Burrow has been sacked like seven times a game,

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Speaker 3: both both games to start the season. That is a

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Speaker 3: lot of sacks. You extrapolate that over the entire season,

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Speaker 3: that would be over one hundred sacks. Not that that's

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Speaker 3: going to happen, because if he gets anywhere close to

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Speaker 3: that number, he's gonna be out injured because that's just

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Speaker 3: such an unsustainable amount of hits for a professional quarterback

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Speaker 3: to take. So there is a lot of stuff I

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Speaker 3: don't like going with Cincinnati. They're bad offensive line, the

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Speaker 3: unsustainability of the hits, Joe Burrows taking starting zero in two,

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Speaker 3: another back to back road trip coming up to Baltimore

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Speaker 3: and New Orleans. I think it is, you know, two

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Speaker 3: teams that aren't going to take it easy on them

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Speaker 3: on defense at all.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of negatives going for the Bengals.

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Speaker 3: Not to mention that Zach Zach what's the name, Zach

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Speaker 3: Taylor is the head coach. You know, maybe last year

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Speaker 3: just was a whole string of lucky. They got the

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Speaker 3: Raiders in the playoffs, they beat the Titans, and they

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Speaker 3: got really lucky against the Chiefs. You know that that

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Speaker 3: took a whole bunch of things and missed field goals

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Speaker 3: and whatnot to even get to the to the super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: So now they're coming off this this extended playoff run.

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Speaker 3: They have a bad offensive line, wouldn't even surprise me

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Speaker 3: my boldest pick. I just wrote about this this this

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Speaker 3: week for Viisen. Actually, I bet the Bengals to have

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Speaker 3: the worst record in the NFL at fifty to one.

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Speaker 3: I think that's way too high, especially when you look

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Speaker 3: at the schedule. They got the Bills, they got Tampa Bay.

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Speaker 3: They don't have a lot of easy games in the pipeline,

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Speaker 3: so things go south in Cincinnati. They can go south quickly,

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Speaker 3: and the Bengals can be the bung Goals again, you know,

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Speaker 3: before we know it.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's I mean, fifty to one for the Bengals

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Speaker 4: to have the worst record in the league. I'm wondering

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Speaker 4: so obviously like kind of wide range of outcomes with

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Speaker 4: how things could could unfold with this team. Wide range

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Speaker 4: may be skewed towards the downside with them. I'm wondering

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Speaker 4: how much you have adjusted your assumptions about the baseline

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Speaker 4: for this team so week over week I've bumped them

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Speaker 4: down zero point five points relative to where I had

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Speaker 4: them previously. Honestly, I was attempted to bump them down

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Speaker 4: a little bit more, but that just felt like I

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Speaker 4: would be too aggressive. But how how are you like

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Speaker 4: viewing this team in a vacuum.

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Speaker 3: Well, remember that they're fortunate in the fact that every

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Speaker 3: other team in their division right now is one and one,

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Speaker 3: and you know, a win this week puts them, you know,

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Speaker 3: turn turns things around, you know, fairly quickly, at least

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Speaker 3: in terms of, you know, attempting to make the playoffs

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Speaker 3: and win the division.

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Speaker 2: And all that stuff.

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Speaker 3: But you mentioned range of outcomes, and it's just if

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Speaker 3: they if they lose this week, their situation is not

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Speaker 3: great at zero to three. With Miami come into town,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's just a hard offense to defend against.

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Speaker 3: Then they go they have the back to back road

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Speaker 3: trip I mentioned Baltimore and New Orleans. They get a

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Speaker 3: little bit the easiest sort of chunk of their schedule

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Speaker 3: with with Atlanta and uh, what's it called the Browns

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Speaker 3: without Deshaun Watson, and they get Carolina. But after that

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Speaker 3: second half of the season's absolute bloodbath starts at after

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Speaker 3: the bye week, they they're at Pittsburgh at Tennessee, they

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Speaker 3: get Kansas City, Cleveland at home with Deshaun Watson, at

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Speaker 3: Tampa Bay at New England. Late in the season, Buffalo

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Speaker 3: and Baltimore. You know those are all, you know, not

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Speaker 3: not easy games, especially when you have a quarterback that's

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Speaker 3: getting smashed on a weekly basis.

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Speaker 2: So just range of outcomes, things go south. They go

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Speaker 2: south quickly. Here.

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Speaker 3: I'm not even convinced Zach Taylor makes it through the

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Speaker 3: whole season if it if it goes as bad as

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Speaker 3: it could. If I was looking for a cheap first

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Speaker 3: coach fired, I would pick Zac Taylor at a big number.

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Speaker 2: I didn't see that today I was looking for it. Though.

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Speaker 1: It is worth remembering this team's only two years removed

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Speaker 1: from what another first overall pick or dam They.

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Speaker 3: Weren't very good, They got very good very quickly, and

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Speaker 3: then a lot of luck played into that. It just,

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Speaker 3: you know, like this, This team lost to the Jets

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Speaker 3: as recently as last year.

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Speaker 2: Don't don't forget that.

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Speaker 3: They I like Joe Burrow a lot, but the unsustainability

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Speaker 3: of him continuing to get hit is a major thing.

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Speaker 3: That's that's not really being talked about a lot right now.

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Speaker 1: Shout out to Mike White. Now, guys, is the are

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Speaker 1: the Bengals the team that is dropping the furthest in

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Speaker 1: your power rankings right now? Or is there someone that

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Speaker 1: you were looking at with an even more negative light

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Speaker 1: after two weeks of the season, Matt, Yeah.

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Speaker 4: There were a number of teams that I dropped down

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Speaker 4: this week, all point five points. The Rams don't look

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Speaker 4: like the Rams of last year, or maybe you know,

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Speaker 4: it's just say the Rams last year were very streaky,

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Speaker 4: and they you know, they put a good run of

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Speaker 4: games together. But you know, any any good team can

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Speaker 4: lose to the Bills. That's fine. Refusing to close out

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Speaker 4: the Falcons was pretty concerning. Also the Denver Broncos. I mean,

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Speaker 4: I think Russell Wilson is not the Russell Wilson of

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Speaker 4: five years ago. And the head coach that they have

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Speaker 4: is definitely not the head coach they want to have

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Speaker 4: next year. It's a really negative situation. I've also downgraded

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Speaker 4: the Colts, who I'm just sorry. Like the Jags, Okay,

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Speaker 4: maybe they're better than we thought they were, But if

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Speaker 4: all it takes is losing one wide receiver and one

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Speaker 4: mindbacker for you to get beat by twenty four points

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Speaker 4: by the Jags, you're not as good as everyone thought

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Speaker 4: you were. The Titans, that that's obvious. Uh, And then

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Speaker 4: the Steelers, you know, like I want to like this team.

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Speaker 4: They've got a lot of grit. Uh, They've got a

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Speaker 4: I think an underappreciated defense, but they have Mitch Trubisky

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Speaker 4: a quarterback, and I just I have to downgrade them. Honestly,

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Speaker 4: I thought this number should be three, you know, looking

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Speaker 4: ahead towards week three, uh Thursday night football. Uh, you

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Speaker 4: know with the Browns, I thought the number should have

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Speaker 4: been three. I think it was three in the look

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Speaker 4: ahead market. It's now I think like five. Uh So

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Speaker 4: I'm probably I'm probably still too high on the Steelers

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Speaker 4: to be honest.

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Speaker 1: I I personally think that the problem is losing TJ.

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Speaker 1: Watt because that that team is what zero to five

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Speaker 1: now in games where Watt doesn't play, that defense really

336
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Speaker 1: struggles to function once he's once he's out.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And then on the offensive side, like you said, no,

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Speaker 1: Mitch Trubisky is not the answer. And eventually you have

340
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Speaker 1: to think sooner rather than later, Kenny baby hands pick

341
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Speaker 1: it has to be getting the call to go to

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Speaker 1: get on the field and start playing more.

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Speaker 2: Right, I don't think, I hope.

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Speaker 3: I don't think Kenny Pickett's gonna play much this season.

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Speaker 3: They've been They've been pretty public that he's gonna sit

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Speaker 3: on the bench and learn, and it would be very

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Speaker 3: un Steelers like for them to all of a sudden

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Speaker 3: change their mind and just throw them in, especially early

349
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Speaker 3: in the season. If things get away from them, you know,

350
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Speaker 3: maybe he starts a couple of games late, but I

351
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Speaker 3: don't see them, you know, taking the team away from Trabitsky.

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Speaker 3: And I think, uh, this Week two game against the Patriots,

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Speaker 3: it was just a bad spot in general, coming off

354
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Speaker 3: the Week one overtime, so it didn't surprise me that

355
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Speaker 3: they came out flat there. I wouldn't write the Steelers

356
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Speaker 3: off just yet, though I bet them to win the

357
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Speaker 3: division at ten to one before the season.

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Speaker 2: I think the TJ.

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Speaker 3: Watt injury really sucks, though, but still earlier I don't think.

360
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Speaker 3: I don't think I would just totally write off everything

361
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Speaker 3: they're doing.

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Speaker 2: Give it, give it some more time.

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Speaker 1: I'm still holding out hope on my thirty three to

364
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Speaker 1: one Mike Tomlin Coach of the Year ticket. The hope

365
00:18:58,960 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 1: is not completely dead just yet, but it's it's on

366
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Speaker 1: life support. The flip side of it is, with all

367
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Speaker 1: these injuries, if they make it to the playoffs, I

368
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Speaker 1: feel like I have a great chance, they just have

369
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Speaker 1: to get there. But sorry, go, no, you go.

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Speaker 3: I'd say, I don't think Coach of the Year is

371
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Speaker 3: going to matter if the Bills go fifteen and two.

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Speaker 3: You know, Sean McDermott, I actually bet some of that today.

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Speaker 3: But I agree with most of what Matt said about

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Speaker 3: the Rams. I've down downgraded them. I thought, even even

375
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Speaker 3: coming off that win against the Falcons, they easily could

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Speaker 3: have lost that game.

377
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Speaker 2: They got lucky, not only late in the game, but

378
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Speaker 2: they got lucky.

379
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 3: Early in the game that the first possession was a

380
00:19:42,800 --> 00:19:45,919
Speaker 3: turnover on turnover on downs or missed field goal or whatever.

381
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Speaker 3: There were a lot of situations I think that the

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Speaker 3: Falcons could have taken advantage and scored more points in

383
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Speaker 3: that game early. Besides the Rams, though, I also have

384
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Speaker 3: downgraded the Titans a bit. Basically, all the O and

385
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Speaker 3: two teams a downgrade for me, but the Titans and

386
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Speaker 3: the Bengals, I think, you know, I could almost guarantee

387
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Speaker 3: you one of those two teams is not at the

388
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Speaker 3: playoffs this year.

389
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Speaker 1: I mean, I think that's a pretty safe bet. I

390
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,439
Speaker 1: was low on the Titans going into the season, but

391
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Speaker 1: I'm kicking myself right now because I did not pick

392
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Speaker 1: the Texans eighty to one. I talked about it, I

393
00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,120
Speaker 1: danced around it. I never took the Texans to win

394
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Speaker 1: that division at eighty to one, and I really really

395
00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 1: wish I had. But man, the teams at the top there,

396
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 1: the Titans and the Colts both just look like garbage

397
00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 1: right now. Matt already talked about it a little bit

398
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Speaker 1: with Okay, you lose Michael Pittman, you lose Shaquille Leonard,

399
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 1: But twenty four points to the Jags, especially when you

400
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,359
Speaker 1: have that game marked on the calendar after what happened

401
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,199
Speaker 1: at the end of last season. Is it time to panic?

402
00:20:48,280 --> 00:20:50,680
Speaker 1: Jason on the Colts? Are you writing them off completely?

403
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:52,840
Speaker 1: And if so, can we just not give out a

404
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:54,359
Speaker 1: division winner in the AFC South.

405
00:20:55,040 --> 00:20:57,639
Speaker 3: I'm not writing them off completely, but I am unimpressed

406
00:20:57,640 --> 00:20:57,920
Speaker 3: with them.

407
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:00,200
Speaker 2: I did have the Jaguars week two.

408
00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 3: You know, it's it's not a terrible, terrible spot to

409
00:21:05,640 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 3: be in. I guess oh one and one is still

410
00:21:07,320 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 3: better than oh and two, especially in that division when

411
00:21:10,560 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 3: you know no one's gonna really run away with it.

412
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 3: I don't like the Texans very much, just because Lovey

413
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:19,520
Speaker 3: Smith seems to kind of go into turtle mode late

414
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 3: in the games, and he's he's very very unaggressive. I

415
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 3: just like, like, I want I want him to be

416
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:29,280
Speaker 3: more aggressive. And I understand, you know, maybe he feels

417
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,520
Speaker 3: limited what he could do with Davis Mills or whatever.

418
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 3: But you know, I'm not I'm not into this team

419
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 3: at all. UH division totally up for grabs. I like

420
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 3: the Jaguars, though, I think Trevor Lawrence's is what's up

421
00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 3: in that division.

422
00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:48,960
Speaker 1: I feel like a lot of people kind of forgot

423
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,360
Speaker 1: about him after last year and are forgetting that, Hey,

424
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,200
Speaker 1: urban Meyer was probably not the best guy to help

425
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,840
Speaker 1: develop him. And also it's not like he didn't have

426
00:21:59,080 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: just such astounding college career. You know, this guy has

427
00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 1: the talent, and now we're starting to see a little

428
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,480
Speaker 1: bit more of that come to fruition under Doug Peterson.

429
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:10,600
Speaker 1: But one team we haven't talked about so far. Maybe

430
00:22:10,640 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 1: it's because I know I was a little higher on

431
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:15,480
Speaker 1: them than most and now they're dealing with a whole

432
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:20,159
Speaker 1: host of problems. But the Saints, they obviously were a

433
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:23,400
Speaker 1: mixed bag. You came out in Week one, you were okay,

434
00:22:23,960 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: and then in Week two against the Bucks, the offense

435
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 1: was a no show. Jamis was back to throwing his interceptions.

436
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,199
Speaker 1: How concerned are you guys about this team, especially with

437
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 1: the fact that apparently Jamis Winston is playing with no

438
00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 1: back right now, Matt, where do you have the Saints?

439
00:22:39,760 --> 00:22:43,359
Speaker 4: You know? I actually I bumped the Saints up a

440
00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:47,879
Speaker 4: little after their Week two performance. I thought they they

441
00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:51,800
Speaker 4: looked pretty good. You know, they might be frustrating, but

442
00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 4: they hung with the Bucks. And the Bucks have a

443
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,760
Speaker 4: great defense, maybe the best defense in the league, certainly

444
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:02,040
Speaker 4: top three, and it was only after Lattimore was ejected

445
00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:05,320
Speaker 4: that the Bucks were able to do more on offense.

446
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,160
Speaker 4: But I think that was really a pretty close game,

447
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,399
Speaker 4: and given that the Saints were able to hang the

448
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 4: way that they were, I think that they're deserve an

449
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 4: upgrade after that. So I still have them as a,

450
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 4: you know, a kind of like league average team on

451
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 4: a neutral field. But I don't know. The defense doesn't

452
00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 4: doesn't worry me at all. It might be the inconsistency

453
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 4: with Jamis Winston in the back issues, but the inconsistency

454
00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,360
Speaker 4: gives them a really wide range of outcomes.

455
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,640
Speaker 1: Jason, how about you? In the eights, I think.

456
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 3: Tays from Hill is their best chance to be a

457
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:48,000
Speaker 3: playoff contender at quarterback.

458
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 2: You know, I really thought they should have put him

459
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 2: in more in that game.

460
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 3: And like Matt said, I mean, anytime you hold a

461
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:00,720
Speaker 3: good NFL team to three points through three quarters, we're

462
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 3: doing something right. And uh, I mean the Bucks should

463
00:24:04,960 --> 00:24:09,359
Speaker 3: be more concerned through their first eight quarters. They didn't

464
00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 3: look great against the Cowboys defense. They didn't look great

465
00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:17,920
Speaker 3: against the Saints defense. It wasn't until Marshaun Lattimore got

466
00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 3: ejected that you know that the Saints kind of came

467
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 3: alive with a little bit of help from Jamis Winston,

468
00:24:24,400 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 3: you know, throwing some some easy interceptions to to the

469
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,920
Speaker 3: Bucks defense as well. So all all around, I think

470
00:24:33,280 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 3: this is the same Saints team we've seen for the

471
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,120
Speaker 3: last couple of years. It's it's got, you know, players

472
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 3: all across the board. They're strong, you know, Kamara, Michael

473
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,879
Speaker 3: Thomas is back, they added uh, Chris Olave the wide

474
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:48,679
Speaker 3: receiver rookie.

475
00:24:48,760 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 2: They got a lot going for them.

476
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:54,720
Speaker 3: They got a strong defense, continuity with the coaching staff

477
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 3: more or less.

478
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 2: But it's the quarterback.

479
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 3: It's just Jameis Winston is not going to be the

480
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 3: cou It's gonna win you these games and until they

481
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 3: figure that out, and I don't know. Like I said,

482
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 3: I think Taysom Hill is the answer. It's clear they

483
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 3: don't think he is. But I would love to see

484
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 3: him get a real shot at playing quarterback healthy, because

485
00:25:16,840 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 3: you know, playing that sort of hybrid tight end running

486
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 3: quarterback thing and it just doesn't get him enough touches

487
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:25,240
Speaker 3: to use him the way he should be used. I

488
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 3: think he needs to be full time starting quarterback and

489
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 3: you know, see see how the team plays with him

490
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 3: in the lineup healthy.

491
00:25:33,080 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: Sean Payton is cheering on listening to this podcast in

492
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:39,199
Speaker 1: his car right now. Matt. I don't know though that

493
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 1: that's a take right there. They tried the storm and

494
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 1: Mormon a bit last year. Wasn't necessarily the most successful thing.

495
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 1: But Matt, he was.

496
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 2: Real injured last year though, too. He wasn't one healthy.

497
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,119
Speaker 1: That is true, Matt. What do you think? Uh?

498
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I respectfully disagree. I mean, I think the I

499
00:25:58,520 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 4: think the thing with Taysom Hill is that like as

500
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 4: wide as wide as the jamis Winston range of outcomes is,

501
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 4: it's even wider with Taysom Hill. And so the fact

502
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 4: that he is a quarterback who is unconventional, means that

503
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 4: like the defensive game planning is harder for him that week. Uh,

504
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 4: and so that could give the Saints an edge. But

505
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 4: I think that, uh he it would It wouldn't take

506
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 4: long before in a sort of t Bowt esque type

507
00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:33,639
Speaker 4: of fashion, he would be exposed.

508
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 1: Uh.

509
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,679
Speaker 4: Maybe I'm just wrong, you know, maybe I'm wrong, But

510
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 4: I think Winston or like even Andy Dalton as the

511
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 4: number two. Like if Winston were injured and out, Dalton

512
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 4: would be the guy to come in and not Taysom Hill.

513
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 4: And I think Dalton probably has like the higher floor, Uh,

514
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:57,080
Speaker 4: Taysom Hill probably. It feels so wrong to say Tasom

515
00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 4: Hill probably has the higher ceiling relative to Dalton.

516
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper.

517
00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,400
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518
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519
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Speaker 1: My friends and I changed over this year and I

520
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521
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522
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523
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524
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525
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Speaker 1: yards in a football game or number of points in

526
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 1: a basketball game. Then choose the amount of money you

527
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,240
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528
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:37,760
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529
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531
00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 1: only app where I can join my friends contests and

532
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533
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 1: I can see and copy my group's picks with the

534
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Speaker 1: tap of a button. Along with over under integrated into

535
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Speaker 1: the fantasy experience itself, it's insanely fun to ride it

536
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537
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538
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:03,520
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539
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540
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541
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 1: hundred dollars to get you started. In terms of conditions

542
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 1: apply see Sleeper Dot comfort details. I don't think that

543
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:17,800
Speaker 1: you can replay I'm with you. I don't think you

544
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:20,320
Speaker 1: can replace Jamis with Dalton. If you were gonna make

545
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 1: a change, I think you do try the Taysom Hill experiment,

546
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 1: but I personally think you give Jamis a little more time.

547
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: I think the back injury is having a serious effect here,

548
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: and that's not the only injury that I'm worried about

549
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: going into this next week. Guys, what about the Chargers

550
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:42,480
Speaker 1: because apparently now Justin Herbert is dealing with rib injury.

551
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,120
Speaker 1: They say that he should be able to play, and

552
00:28:45,160 --> 00:28:49,000
Speaker 1: he should be okay, but I'm still scared, especially because

553
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: I don't know if they fired that doctor from the

554
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:55,400
Speaker 1: other season or not. Matt, how concerned you about Justin Herbert?

555
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:59,160
Speaker 1: Not just potential threat of life, but ability to play football?

556
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:04,880
Speaker 4: Whoever it was who injected Tara Taylor. That guy no

557
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 4: longer is with the team. Hopefully, certainly let's keep him

558
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 4: away from the ribs of Justin Herbert. I'm not as

559
00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:17,480
Speaker 4: worried about Justin Herbert maybe as I should be. I

560
00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:19,640
Speaker 4: think he plays in Week three, especially with the three

561
00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 4: extra days of rest. Deepak Shona, who's our injury expert

562
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 4: at Fantasy pros, He suggested that this injury is more

563
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,400
Speaker 4: about pain than about anything else, and that the pain

564
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 4: can be managed. You know, but this line it opened

565
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:37,720
Speaker 4: at seven the look aheadline I believe was nine nine

566
00:29:37,800 --> 00:29:41,000
Speaker 4: and a half and in the regular season, sorry, in

567
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 4: the preseason market, this number was ten, and so having

568
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 4: it at seven just feels a little bit short. I

569
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 4: actually I project it for around nine, and so I

570
00:29:55,400 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 4: think that there's some value here. And maybe the reason

571
00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 4: why it's seven has something to do with the Justin

572
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 4: Herbert injury. I think it also has to do with

573
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 4: maybe some Jags enthusiasm, and maybe the also the desire

574
00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 4: not to trust Brandon Staley as much as we previously

575
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:14,800
Speaker 4: had because he's just not going to be as aggressive

576
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 4: and that would maybe mean just fewer points all around

577
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 4: for the team. So maybe you put all that together

578
00:30:21,000 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 4: and seven is a better number than the look ahead

579
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:26,600
Speaker 4: we had at nine. But I'm just I'm not too

580
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 4: worried about the Justin Herbert ribs component of this.

581
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 1: Jason, I know you're a Rams fan, but what do

582
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,280
Speaker 1: you think about the other team in LA I'm a.

583
00:30:36,280 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 3: Little worried about his ribs. I mean, he did not

584
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,080
Speaker 3: look like he was throwing. You know, he was in

585
00:30:43,120 --> 00:30:45,000
Speaker 3: a lot of pain at the end of that game.

586
00:30:45,720 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 3: Getting us to cover there now, gotta thank.

587
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 2: Him for that.

588
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 3: But I'm not super impressed with Brandon Staley's game management.

589
00:30:56,320 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 3: Haven't been since the Week seventeen overtime game that I

590
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 3: still wish had ended in a tie for many, many reasons,

591
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 3: mostly financial. But you know, I think i've I just

592
00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:14,440
Speaker 3: haven't been impressed with the way he's managed end of

593
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 3: game situations.

594
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 2: And the Chargers tend.

595
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,600
Speaker 3: To be one of those teams kind of like the Lions,

596
00:31:19,600 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 3: where I always joke, it doesn't matter what the score is,

597
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 3: just let me know who has the ball in the

598
00:31:24,400 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 3: final possession, because these games always come down to the end.

599
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 3: I really like their defense. I bet Khalil Mack to

600
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 3: have the most stacks. I bet him to win Defensive

601
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:36,760
Speaker 3: Player of the Year. You know, I think he's it's

602
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 3: like thirty one, so he's slightly on the wrong side

603
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 3: of the defensive player of your age curve. But I

604
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:47,000
Speaker 3: like his situation and the fact that he can get

605
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 3: double digit sacks in this defense. But you know, I

606
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 3: think I think it's It's been popular the last couple

607
00:31:55,800 --> 00:31:58,440
Speaker 3: of years to pick against Kansas City and try to

608
00:31:58,480 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 3: find reasons why they're not gonna sustain success, and through

609
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 3: two weeks they look as good as they they normally do,

610
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 3: and probably the only thing overshadowing them is the Buffalo Bills.

611
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 3: Otherwise we'd be saying Kansas City is the best team

612
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 3: in the AFC.

613
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: Again, and Matt, what do you think about Kansas City?

614
00:32:18,080 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 1: That's not necessarily where I was thinking of going next,

615
00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: but it's a great point. There were people writing their

616
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,719
Speaker 1: demise with the loss of Tyreek Hill. Have you been

617
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:29,640
Speaker 1: impressed with what this team has been able to do?

618
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 1: Is it that they haven't had a truly challenging game yet?

619
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on Kansas City? Where are they

620
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 1: in your rankings right now?

621
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 4: I mean they're number two. I totally agree with Jason,

622
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 4: and if you look at you know, some of the

623
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:47,040
Speaker 4: the more advanced numbers, they're you know, top two, even

624
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 4: top one, top one, number one offense in the league,

625
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:55,560
Speaker 4: and Patrick Mahomes is number one in EPA and completion

626
00:32:55,680 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 4: percentage over expectation, you know, composite metric. So I still

627
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:03,960
Speaker 4: think that the Chiefs are it's hard to say that

628
00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 4: they are the better team than the Bills like they are,

629
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,720
Speaker 4: they are not, but I still think that they are

630
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 4: right right there, and I do think that they are

631
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 4: still underappreciated within the market so very much with Spreadipedia

632
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 4: there on on the Chiefs. But yeah, I will say

633
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:28,880
Speaker 4: that I still have them a tier below the Bills.

634
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 4: Like I want to put the Chiefs up in that tier,

635
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 4: but like I still haven't been able to do it yet.

636
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,120
Speaker 1: Now, guys, this next team that I want to talk

637
00:33:39,160 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 1: about here, I had in the rundown from before last night,

638
00:33:44,680 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 1: and see if you can spot the issue with them. Now,

639
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 1: the Vikings. They looked fantastic in Week one against the Packers,

640
00:33:54,640 --> 00:33:57,800
Speaker 1: and then last night against the Eagles happened primetime Kirk

641
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 1: Cousins came back out and we were reminded of, oh, yeah,

642
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 1: maybe this team does have some limitations here. To me,

643
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 1: after one week, I was ready to put them a

644
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 1: top three spot on my board, right behind as one

645
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: of the best teams in the NFC and in the

646
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 1: NFC in general. All of a sudden, now I'm actually

647
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:21,160
Speaker 1: taking what happened last night and saying this impacts my

648
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: evaluation of the Packers more than the Vikings. I think

649
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:27,799
Speaker 1: the Vikings are still pretty good and they're gonna be

650
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 1: better games for Kirk Cousins than this one. But now

651
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,720
Speaker 1: I'm looking back at the Packers through two weeks and saying, Okay,

652
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 1: I think this team seriously does have some big issues still,

653
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,759
Speaker 1: especially in the passing game. Without Devonte Adams, even with

654
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: Allen Lazard back, what's striking to me. I don't think

655
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: they're gonna be able to move the football down the

656
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 1: field as quickly and efficiently as they used to. They

657
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,000
Speaker 1: have to lean on that running game a lot more.

658
00:34:50,320 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: And I think it's gonna do fine when they're playing

659
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:55,000
Speaker 1: teams like the Bears. I don't think that they're gonna

660
00:34:55,000 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 1: do as well when they have to come up against

661
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 1: some of these bigger offenses like a Chiefs, Bucks or Bills.

662
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,520
Speaker 1: Where are you guys going on the Packers right now?

663
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,399
Speaker 1: And then also the Vikings after that game?

664
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:09,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I would like to get to get Jason's

665
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 4: thoughts on the Packers here. I'm of the opinion that

666
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 4: what we saw in Week one had more to do

667
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 4: with circumstances than with the Packers themselves or with the Vikings.

668
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 4: You know, without their left tackle, without their right tackle,

669
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 4: without their number one wide receiver, without their two top

670
00:35:30,400 --> 00:35:33,800
Speaker 4: receivers from last season, and then their left guard suffers

671
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 4: a concussion in the middle of the game, and you know,

672
00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 4: for whatever reason, they were playing a very suboptimal defense

673
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:46,239
Speaker 4: zone like soft zone against the Vikings, and so Justin

674
00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:48,920
Speaker 4: Jefferson was able to get a lot of whatever he

675
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:54,399
Speaker 4: wanted in that game. In week two, they got back

676
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 4: Alan Wizzard, they got back right tackle Elston Jenkins, they

677
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 4: got back left guard John Running, and I think sooner

678
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 4: or later they're going to get back left tackle David Baktiari,

679
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 4: and that wide receiver unit is going to start to coalesce.

680
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 4: I do agree with you. The offense will be different.

681
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,839
Speaker 4: They will be more run focused, and in the passing game,

682
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,600
Speaker 4: I think they will focus more on the shorter passing game,

683
00:36:20,800 --> 00:36:23,120
Speaker 4: more passes to running backs, which, like that's not the

684
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:26,080
Speaker 4: most efficient way to function, but I still think it

685
00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 4: will be a pretty good offense tom As you know,

686
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 4: I was low on the Vikings entering the year, and

687
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:36,399
Speaker 4: so I did bump them up pretty significantly after week one,

688
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:39,680
Speaker 4: but I haven't adjusted them at all after week two

689
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 4: because I was already low on them. So I viewed

690
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 4: them as being about a point better than average on

691
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 4: a neutral field, and I am I'm fine with that.

692
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:55,440
Speaker 4: I do think that given given that they have Aaron Rodgers,

693
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:58,960
Speaker 4: given the success that they've had. The Green Bay Packers

694
00:36:59,000 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 4: are still one of the top you know, eight, top

695
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:03,280
Speaker 4: six teams in the league.

696
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:08,279
Speaker 1: Jason, how about you? Where are you going on? First

697
00:37:08,320 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 1: the Packers and then the Vikings.

698
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: Didn't really worry me week one. They did the same

699
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 2: thing last year.

700
00:37:14,640 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 3: I think, you know, when when you have a veteran

701
00:37:16,640 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 3: quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, you can throw out week run

702
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 3: week one results. And like Matt said, they were missing

703
00:37:24,920 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 3: starting tackles, and you know, those are all big deals. Especially,

704
00:37:28,640 --> 00:37:32,319
Speaker 3: I think we frequently don't pay attention to offensive line

705
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 3: injuries as much as we should, you know, for handicap

706
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:35,440
Speaker 3: and purposes.

707
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:37,520
Speaker 2: I think especially that's something.

708
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 3: That that people people don't you know, amateur handicappers probably

709
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 3: don't pay enough attention to It's something that could significantly

710
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 3: help them long term. But you know, line linemen are

711
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:52,720
Speaker 3: a very important part of the game, even though they rarely,

712
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:57,520
Speaker 3: if ever get mentioned or touched the ball. Not worried

713
00:37:57,520 --> 00:38:03,759
Speaker 3: about the Packers, I am less impressed with the the

714
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:07,279
Speaker 3: the Vikings after last night. You know, I think the

715
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:11,640
Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson Offensive Player of the Year crowd got a

716
00:38:11,719 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 3: rude awakening last night. I bet Stephan Diggs actually Offensive

717
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 3: Player of the Year after two weeks. I think I

718
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 3: think that there's a lot of proxy value on the

719
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,320
Speaker 3: Bills via different awards at the moment other than m

720
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 3: VP that was that was one of them. But I

721
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 3: think you know that there was a lot of talk

722
00:38:33,320 --> 00:38:37,439
Speaker 3: about that them just the Rams offense, the coach coming

723
00:38:37,480 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 3: over and everything just clicking. But the reality is Kirk

724
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 3: Cousins is Kirk Cousins, and he's another guy.

725
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:44,359
Speaker 2: He's like a.

726
00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 3: Jamis Winston where he's just in that tier of quarterbacks.

727
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:51,839
Speaker 3: Like are you really excited to have a playoff run

728
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 3: with him? Do you really think he's gonna win you

729
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:56,800
Speaker 3: a super Bowl?

730
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:58,439
Speaker 2: Like he might.

731
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:01,240
Speaker 3: Everything might click and you might a Bengals like run,

732
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 3: but it's not happening. You know, Like I'm not I'm

733
00:39:04,920 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 3: a Packers fan, I'm not a Vikings fan, but you

734
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:10,520
Speaker 3: know I can always look over at Minnesota and be like, haha,

735
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 3: you have Kirk Cousins and they got no defense. At

736
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 3: the end of the day, it's you know they would

737
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 3: might you know, anyone any Vikings fan who tells you

738
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:22,240
Speaker 3: they wouldn't take Aaron Rodgers right now is bualt face liar.

739
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 1: The way I put it with Kirk Cousins, Kirk Cousins

740
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,360
Speaker 1: is a bus driver. That is all he's going to

741
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 1: be good at for you. You can trust him most

742
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:33,359
Speaker 1: of the time to get the kids to school, like

743
00:39:33,440 --> 00:39:35,360
Speaker 1: you can trust him in charge of the school bus.

744
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 1: You're not handing him the keys to a NASCAR to

745
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:41,399
Speaker 1: to a NASCAR ride and say go out and win

746
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:44,120
Speaker 1: this race. He's not going to be on that level

747
00:39:44,160 --> 00:39:46,359
Speaker 1: for you. He's a game manager and you need a

748
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: great team around him to make him the best that

749
00:39:50,120 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 1: he can be. And then even when you get that,

750
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:54,000
Speaker 1: and yes, there were some problems last night. One of

751
00:39:54,040 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 1: the interceptions not really his fault with with Justin Jefferson

752
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 1: running the wrong kind of route and then yed Irv

753
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: Smith dropping a touchdown. There were moments that weren't his fault,

754
00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 1: but it's not like he looked good and he especially

755
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 1: imploded late and that gives me a lot of cause

756
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,440
Speaker 1: for worry. Like you said, he's not going to be

757
00:40:13,440 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: able to go up against the top teams and be

758
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 1: the difference maker that you need him to, you know, Matt, Yeah,

759
00:40:19,120 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Matt.

760
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:26,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely, you know he's Kirk Cousins That basically says

761
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 4: it all.

762
00:40:27,080 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 1: All right, guys, right now, if you were to be

763
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 1: making a future's bet, if you were to be hopping

764
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,839
Speaker 1: on to bet MGM using the promo code Betting Pros

765
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,200
Speaker 1: to get a thousand dollars risk free bet, and you

766
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 1: wanted to put it on an NFL future, what would

767
00:40:40,680 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 1: you be looking at at this moment? And also, fun fact,

768
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 1: you can in fact do that right now and head

769
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 1: on over to our friends at bet at MGM and

770
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 1: get that thousand dollars risk free bet with the promo

771
00:40:49,520 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 1: code betting Pros. Matt, what's your future?

772
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:56,960
Speaker 4: I honestly don't know if I have one specific future

773
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:59,880
Speaker 4: that I would be looking at, but I do know

774
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:06,040
Speaker 4: that you know, MVP tends to be it's a quarterback award,

775
00:41:06,440 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 4: and it tends to be very correlated to passing efficiency stats.

776
00:41:11,239 --> 00:41:14,480
Speaker 4: And Patrick Mahomes is still the number one quarterback in

777
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 4: passing efficiency or based on a lot of the stats

778
00:41:17,640 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 4: that you could look at, and that Chiefs team still

779
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:25,080
Speaker 4: has a pretty good chance to finish as the number

780
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,520
Speaker 4: one seed or the number two seed in the AFC.

781
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 4: And I think there is a lot of heat for

782
00:41:31,360 --> 00:41:34,920
Speaker 4: the Buffalo Bills, and like I understand it, I think

783
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 4: they are the superior team. But I do think that

784
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:43,400
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes will probably be discounted in the MVP market

785
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:47,399
Speaker 4: as long as we see as long as we see

786
00:41:47,480 --> 00:41:50,440
Speaker 4: Josh Allen continue to perform at a pretty high level.

787
00:41:50,920 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 4: But like I could see Patrick Mahomes basically stocking Josh

788
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,319
Speaker 4: Allen for a lot of the season and then all

789
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 4: it takes is one bad Josh Allen performance in prime

790
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:03,359
Speaker 4: time and then all of a sudden, Patrick Mahomes looks

791
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:07,320
Speaker 4: like the clear MVP. So I do think that Patrick

792
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 4: Mahomes right now relative to Josh Allen offers value.

793
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 1: This is Joe Flacco erasure, but I guess I'll let

794
00:42:13,800 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 1: it stand. Jason, how about you, Is there a future

795
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 1: that you have your eye on?

796
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I think Matt's right with with Mahomes. I've

797
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 3: tended to bet a little bit on Mahomes every week

798
00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 3: of the season the last couple of years. You know,

799
00:42:29,360 --> 00:42:32,400
Speaker 3: it's always kind of one of those things. He is

800
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 3: so good on a regular basis, I think we take

801
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 3: for granted how good he actually is. You know, we're

802
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 3: just kind of immune to the greatness. After a while

803
00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 3: Mahomes is just top tier. He's one of the best

804
00:42:46,760 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 3: quarterbacks I've ever seen, So yeah, you get value there.

805
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 3: And the thing is with a lot of these these

806
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 3: awards markets. You know, in baseball, you know there's there's

807
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:57,440
Speaker 3: ten pictures at the beginning of the year you can

808
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,840
Speaker 3: make cases for. There's plenty of players to make arguments

809
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 3: for for MVP or Rookie.

810
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:02,879
Speaker 2: Of the Year.

811
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,799
Speaker 3: In the NFL, the pool kind of thins itself out

812
00:43:06,800 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 3: pretty quickly, and it's it's not like you have to

813
00:43:09,280 --> 00:43:11,439
Speaker 3: really go down deep and say, oh, well, I found

814
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:13,120
Speaker 3: one hundred and one long shot. I found a two

815
00:43:13,160 --> 00:43:15,920
Speaker 3: hundred and one long shot. There aren't any long shots.

816
00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,719
Speaker 3: There's there's no price discovery, there's no you know, the

817
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 3: market's pretty pretty shaped with the futures. So you know

818
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 3: you're not getting value on Jalen Hurts at eight to one.

819
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 3: You're not getting value on too at eighteen to one

820
00:43:31,160 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 3: or whatever.

821
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:34,200
Speaker 2: Probably right on my homes.

822
00:43:34,200 --> 00:43:35,879
Speaker 3: But I would if I was using a free bet,

823
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 3: I'd want something a bigger odds. I'd look maybe at

824
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 3: the Bengals, like I mentioned, to have the worst record.

825
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:43,000
Speaker 3: If you can get you know, ninety to now, sorry,

826
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 3: fifty to one is what it was. You know, I

827
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 3: always like using a free bet for something at big

828
00:43:47,400 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 3: odds offensive Player of the Year. I mentioned Stefan Diggs.

829
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 3: I think getting getting exposure to the Bills. You know,

830
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:58,080
Speaker 3: you're not going to get a good price on them

831
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 3: to win the AFC or the Super Bowl point, but

832
00:44:01,320 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 3: offensive player of the Year on a guy like Diggs

833
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:08,160
Speaker 3: who's currently leading in the league and touchdown catches, you

834
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 3: know you can get him like seven to one most

835
00:44:10,120 --> 00:44:13,200
Speaker 3: touchdown catches as well. I think that's not a terrible

836
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 3: bet with the amount of times he's going to be

837
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 3: targeted in that offense. So you know, if you want

838
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:21,320
Speaker 3: Bill's exposure, I think that's the way to go. Or

839
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 3: Sean McDermott Coach of the Year, those are all sort

840
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 3: of proxies for Bill's being best team in the league

841
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:28,480
Speaker 3: right now.

842
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like the idea. I like the idea of

843
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 4: Stefan Diggs as Offensive Player of the Year plus eight

844
00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 4: point fifty right now at bet mgm.

845
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 2: B.

846
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a pretty good number. I might be placing

847
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:45,840
Speaker 1: that right after this. I had him anytime touchdown score

848
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 1: last night and now I so wish that those compounded

849
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:50,160
Speaker 1: How great would that be if you get paid out

850
00:44:50,200 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 1: three times on a hat trick like that?

851
00:44:52,760 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 3: Well you could bet him to score three touchdowns.

852
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:57,839
Speaker 1: You could, but I didn't really want to do that

853
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 1: because I wasn't expecting him to be I wasn't expecting

854
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 1: that amazing of her performance. But still I will to

855
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 1: happily take my winnings there, and guys, I will happily

856
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 1: say that it has been a great episode. Jason, thank

857
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:11,799
Speaker 1: you so much for coming on with us. Where can

858
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: people find the great work you're doing around the internet?

859
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:17,680
Speaker 3: Find me on Viison, you know mon Gill Show usually

860
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 3: Wednesdays and Friday mornings, have a podcast comes out a

861
00:45:20,960 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 3: couple a couple days a week. I do a podcast

862
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 3: on Fridays with Pat Mao doing touchdown props for the weekend,

863
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:29,520
Speaker 3: so all.

864
00:45:29,400 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 2: Sorts of stuff. You can find me anywhere. Just follow

865
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:34,040
Speaker 2: me on Twitter basically.

866
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: And of course you can find him on Twitter. At Spreadipedia,

867
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:39,319
Speaker 1: you can find Matt at Matt f The Oracle, and

868
00:45:39,320 --> 00:45:41,719
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Speaker 1: again so much for being with us. We'll be back

875
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Speaker 1: on Thursday to break down the weekend slate of NFL action,

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