1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarckley and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube only. 6 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 2: Moments from now, we are expecting to hear from President 7 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:31,200 Speaker 2: Trump alongside Benjaminettya, who is in the White House right now. 8 00:00:31,240 --> 00:00:32,800 Speaker 2: They've been meeting for a couple of hours in a 9 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 2: bilateral news conference has been scheduled. If you're with us 10 00:00:35,640 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV, there's a live shot of the State 11 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,319 Speaker 2: dining Room, which is adorned for this occasion. Folks are 12 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 2: working their way in now, and we understand that the 13 00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:48,159 Speaker 2: press pool is assembling, so this could begin shortly. It's 14 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,920 Speaker 2: great to have Dan Williams with us at this moment. 15 00:00:50,920 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 2: We're about to hear details on a twenty one point 16 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 2: piece plan and hopes for a cease fire depending on 17 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,880 Speaker 2: what was discussed and what is being discussed behind closed 18 00:01:00,320 --> 00:01:03,880 Speaker 2: with these two leaders. Danis Bloomberg News reporter in Jerusalem 19 00:01:04,240 --> 00:01:06,280 Speaker 2: and staying up a bit late for us this evening. 20 00:01:06,319 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 3: Dan it's great to have you. 21 00:01:07,319 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 2: I'm just curious what the local coverage and local knowledge 22 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:13,680 Speaker 2: of the twenty one point plan is and how much hope. 23 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 3: There is there for a breakthrough. 24 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 4: Today, local coverage is wall to wall, going back, I'd 25 00:01:19,160 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 4: say as far back as the weekend when there were 26 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 4: first leak reports of this emerging plan. Israel, the Palestinians, 27 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 4: the wider regions seem to be gripped by what appears 28 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:33,319 Speaker 4: to be a rare optimism in this almost two year 29 00:01:33,360 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 4: old war. And I think it's no accident that the 30 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:40,280 Speaker 4: word peace is being used around this deal rather than ceasefire, 31 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:44,400 Speaker 4: which was previously used. Peace is far more affirmative term. 32 00:01:44,400 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 4: It's far more sweeping, certainly far more conclusive, and it 33 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:52,360 Speaker 4: does presuppose the exclusion, the toppling, the removal, in one 34 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 4: form of or another, of Hamas, which is sworn to 35 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 4: basically open ended ideological war against Israel. It also suggests 36 00:02:01,400 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 4: that the US President, perhaps even these ready Prime Minister, 37 00:02:05,000 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 4: see ending the war in Gaza as a doorway to 38 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,679 Speaker 4: wider accommodation in the region, a long awaited expansion of 39 00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 4: the Abraham Accords, which really was a centerpiece of Trump's 40 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:16,440 Speaker 4: foreign policy in his first term. 41 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:19,839 Speaker 5: Dan, I also want to talk a little bit about 42 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 5: the backdrop that these talks are coming on. 43 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 3: Today. 44 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 5: You have this great story out on the Bloomberg terminal 45 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:29,120 Speaker 5: entitled quote, can Israel end the war with new push 46 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,640 Speaker 5: into Gaza City? I'm wondering what your reporting has shown 47 00:02:32,680 --> 00:02:34,480 Speaker 5: us about the answer to that question. 48 00:02:35,639 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 4: Well, not to make light of war making, but you know, 49 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 4: with every carrot, there is a stick, and to hear 50 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 4: these Raelis tell it the stick that might have brought 51 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 4: Hamas into accepting this deal, a deal that Israel sees 52 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:51,560 Speaker 4: as being acceptable only if it disarms Hamas, if it 53 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:55,240 Speaker 4: sees an n tamask governance, and it recovers immediately the 54 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:59,680 Speaker 4: forty eight hostages still in Hamas captivity. Israel says that 55 00:02:59,720 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 4: Base Hamas was forced to this due to that military pressure, 56 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 4: including most recently a military push, a very deep military 57 00:03:09,320 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 4: push into Gaza City, that's the de facto capital of 58 00:03:12,760 --> 00:03:15,840 Speaker 4: the Gaza Strip of Hamas. Israeli forces have been there 59 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:19,400 Speaker 4: previously during this war, but this time it's a different method, 60 00:03:19,760 --> 00:03:23,280 Speaker 4: different tactics. They are quite literally churning up the ground 61 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:28,520 Speaker 4: and below ground for any remnant of Hamas infrastructure. Bunkers, 62 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 4: weapon arsenals. Of course, there's been engagements with HAMAS members, 63 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 4: a number of soldiers have been killed, a number of 64 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 4: HAMAS fighter has been killed, Palestinian civilians as well, but 65 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 4: most of the civilians of the Gaza city have actually 66 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 4: fled under Israeli orders to displace persons, camps and to 67 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 4: hear these Raelis talent. This is effectively the last push, 68 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:53,720 Speaker 4: the push which would either have seen Hamas destroyed militarily 69 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 4: or destroyed diplomatically, if you like, by forcing it to surrender, 70 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 4: lay down its arms, and seed power finally in the 71 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 4: Gaza strip. So yes, those things have been running in parallel. 72 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 4: These rarely argument is that as long as there's no 73 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 4: ceasefirefire will continue, and as long as there's no peace deals, 74 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:16,120 Speaker 4: certainly that firing will continue. However, we may see changes 75 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,280 Speaker 4: very very soon, if indeed, an hour from now more 76 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 4: or less, the b US President the Israeli Prime Minister 77 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,880 Speaker 4: announce that Hamas is on board for what would effectively 78 00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 4: a de be a deal, ending this war and perhaps 79 00:04:28,480 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 4: opening the situation up to a wider accommodation. 80 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:34,680 Speaker 2: Would you take their word on that, Dan, And I 81 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:37,320 Speaker 2: ask you that because we've seen now two American presidents 82 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 2: roll out multi point piece plans that they said were 83 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 2: accepted by both sides, and we learned after the fact 84 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 2: that that was not the case. In fact, even Benjaminett 85 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 2: and Yaho has wavered before Trump and Joe Biden on 86 00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 2: this matter. 87 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 4: I think, yes, I think all around, there is exhaustion, 88 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:57,400 Speaker 4: there is great pain, there is great trepidation about what 89 00:04:57,440 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 4: the future holds for Palestinians. It's clearly vent much of 90 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 4: the Gaza Strip has been ruined, really laid waste by 91 00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 4: this war. For Hamas, it's existential more on an institutional level. Obviously, 92 00:05:08,640 --> 00:05:11,200 Speaker 4: if you're a Hamas member now in battle, you face 93 00:05:11,240 --> 00:05:14,600 Speaker 4: almost certain killing or capture. But would appear that this 94 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:19,719 Speaker 4: deal would offer amnesty, immunity to Hamas members who surrender, 95 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:22,440 Speaker 4: perhaps even safe passage out of the Gaza Strip. And 96 00:05:22,480 --> 00:05:24,480 Speaker 4: that sounds like a pretty good deal if it's a 97 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 4: choice between life and death or life and an open 98 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 4: ended prison term. 99 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:30,240 Speaker 3: In Israel. 100 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 4: Now, for these Raelis, the resources have been strained, the 101 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 4: national resources on a level really not seen in decades 102 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 4: by this war. Israel's international standing has plunged, and I 103 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:44,600 Speaker 4: think it's worth remembering the United states under this president is. 104 00:05:44,600 --> 00:05:46,520 Speaker 3: Really the last big power backing is run. 105 00:05:47,000 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 4: Other powers have turned against it, including Security Council powers 106 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 4: which have actually recognized the Palestinian state unilaterally. And I 107 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 4: would really reckon that if the US president is running 108 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 4: out of patients, I think he clearly is and is 109 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:01,920 Speaker 4: laying this down as the deal. 110 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 3: It must work. 111 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 4: I think Israel, and perhaps not just Israel, will do 112 00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 4: everything in their power to make it work. 113 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 5: Well, Danie're laying out the stakes here in great detail 114 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 5: for US. If Israel's going to do everything in their 115 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:17,040 Speaker 5: power to make it work, is there a route here? 116 00:06:17,680 --> 00:06:21,279 Speaker 5: What happens if diplomacy does collapse? Is there any sort 117 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,719 Speaker 5: of mechanism in place that will ensure that the negotiations 118 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:26,119 Speaker 5: and the talks will keep going. 119 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,560 Speaker 4: I don't think anyone is in this for continued, open 120 00:06:29,640 --> 00:06:32,239 Speaker 4: ended talks. I think as a reference at the beginning 121 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:34,479 Speaker 4: of this interview, the nomenclature has changed. 122 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:36,800 Speaker 3: It's no longer talk of a cease fire. 123 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 4: A ceasefire is by definition temporary, cold eyed, self interested, 124 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,920 Speaker 4: and works on the assumption that firing will resume at 125 00:06:43,920 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 4: the end of that cease fire. Trump is talking about peace. 126 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:48,120 Speaker 4: He wants an end of this war, and he wants 127 00:06:48,200 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 4: good news. 128 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 3: And you know what, were a. 129 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,120 Speaker 4: Few days away from the first week of October. That's 130 00:06:53,160 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 4: traditionally whe the Nobel Prize Committee announces it's the winner 131 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,280 Speaker 4: of the Peace Prize and Nobel Peace Prize. I all 132 00:07:00,320 --> 00:07:02,000 Speaker 4: surprised if the reason there is a cent of a 133 00:07:02,040 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 4: rush around this is that the US President and his 134 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:07,880 Speaker 4: supporters are hoping that he will be named in the 135 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:11,200 Speaker 4: coming days for that Peace Prize, the Nobel. Indeed, the 136 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 4: Israeli Prime Minister has already nominated him for that prize. 137 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:20,120 Speaker 4: So I think for various reasons good perhaps less good, immediate, 138 00:07:20,240 --> 00:07:24,640 Speaker 4: less immediate. Really, there's a great sense of urgency here. 139 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 4: It's also the second year mark, the second anniversary, if 140 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 4: you like, of the war beginning just over a week away. 141 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,119 Speaker 4: I think everyone would like to end the war before 142 00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:36,120 Speaker 4: it becomes a two year war. It's already Israel's longest war. 143 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 4: So really, there are so many vectors pointing now to 144 00:07:39,240 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 4: a willingness to make this diplomacy work. It will not 145 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:44,640 Speaker 4: be open ended diplomacy. I think what Trump will tell 146 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 4: everyone involved is I'm washing my hands of you if 147 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 4: this doesn't work, and will just let the forces of 148 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 4: war sort it out, which basically means Israel continues in 149 00:07:52,400 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 4: the Gaza strip, crushes Hamas militarily, potentially loses those hostages 150 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:02,480 Speaker 4: still surviving, loses more soldiers, more palestinent civilians suffering, and 151 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 4: then effectively a bloody, unquestionable end when there's simply no 152 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:07,600 Speaker 4: one left standing. 153 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,600 Speaker 2: Gooay Dan Williams doing a wonderful job reporting for Bloomberg 154 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:15,400 Speaker 2: in Jerusalem. Dan, thank you so much for helping to 155 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:17,960 Speaker 2: set the table ahead of this news conference. 156 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:21,800 Speaker 3: Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much 157 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:23,040 Speaker 3: more coming up after this. 158 00:08:26,440 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 159 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:33,040 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 160 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:36,360 Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bluemberg Business app. 161 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,440 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 162 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 163 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,320 Speaker 5: Particularly when it comes to the shutdown and the cloth 164 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,440 Speaker 5: that is ticking tomorrow, we know that Republicans ultimately need 165 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 5: at least seven Democrats to get on board. Republicans fifty 166 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 5: three votes. They need to get over to sixty in 167 00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:00,160 Speaker 5: order to reach any sort of deal. So the question, 168 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 5: but coms, are they able to get that many to 169 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 5: come over? Can they strike this deal before we ultimately 170 00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 5: careen into a shutdown. 171 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 2: Let's ask that question of someone who knows more than 172 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 2: we do about this current moment in time. Dusty Johnson, 173 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 2: the Republican from South Dakota, is with us now live 174 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and radio, and Congressman, it's great to 175 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,080 Speaker 2: have you back. Our viewers and listeners should know that 176 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 2: you were pivotal in the background and getting the President's big, 177 00:09:24,360 --> 00:09:27,839 Speaker 2: beautiful bill across the finish line. You've been through a 178 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:31,319 Speaker 2: lot of these shutdown scenarios before, and I'm wondering what 179 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:32,360 Speaker 2: your gut tells you now. 180 00:09:32,440 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 3: Does this meeting lead to something today? 181 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 2: Is there an eleventh hour save or should we prepare 182 00:09:37,720 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 2: for the lights to go out? 183 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,360 Speaker 6: It would be wonderful if, you know, the big boys 184 00:09:42,400 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 6: and the big girls in Washington, if we could get 185 00:09:44,440 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 6: her act together and avoid the shutdown. But it really 186 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 6: doesn't look like that's going to happen. It feels to 187 00:09:49,960 --> 00:09:52,000 Speaker 6: me like we've got an eighty five percent chance. So 188 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,640 Speaker 6: going into shutdown, we just I mean, we have passed 189 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,559 Speaker 6: a bipartisan short term funding deal out of the House 190 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,600 Speaker 6: on a bipartisan base. Chuck Schumer does not seem interest 191 00:10:02,840 --> 00:10:06,240 Speaker 6: in interested in accepting that deal, and I think he 192 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:08,120 Speaker 6: seems pretty committed to a shutdown. 193 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 3: I think that's where we're headed. 194 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,960 Speaker 5: Congressmen, do you see any sort of compromise that could emerge, 195 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 5: in particular when it comes to extending the Obamacare premium 196 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 5: subsidies that are set to expire. It seems like there 197 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 5: might be some wiggle room on that provision, at least, 198 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 5: whether that happens now or down the road, if this 199 00:10:25,679 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 5: short term stopgap measure gets through. 200 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 3: Part of it. 201 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 6: I mean, what is sometimes been said is that nothing 202 00:10:32,160 --> 00:10:34,239 Speaker 6: is as eternal as a government program. 203 00:10:34,520 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 3: This is a little bit of proof of that. 204 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,840 Speaker 6: I mean, here we've got some special assistance on healthcare, 205 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:43,240 Speaker 6: some subsidies that were put into place during the pandemic, 206 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:44,880 Speaker 6: and here. 207 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 3: We are having a hard time getting rid of them. 208 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:50,679 Speaker 6: Listen, let's say that reasonable people can disagree about whether 209 00:10:50,760 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 6: or not working class Americans should have these additional enhanced 210 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 6: tax credits. Most of the benefits go to insurance companies. 211 00:10:58,200 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 6: Let's just set that aside and say reasonable people can 212 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:01,319 Speaker 6: disagree about that. 213 00:11:01,920 --> 00:11:03,840 Speaker 3: What we shouldn't be debating is whether. 214 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 6: Or not we're going to spend one point five trillion 215 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:09,679 Speaker 6: dollars of new spending as a part of a six 216 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:14,360 Speaker 6: week short term stop gap funding deal. I mean, this 217 00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 6: is really unprecedented that the Democrats are saying that, no, no, 218 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,640 Speaker 6: Rather than negotiate on the healthcare stuff while the government 219 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 6: is open, we prefer to negotiate while the government is shuttered. 220 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 6: It seems like they're taking the American people hostage, and 221 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:30,440 Speaker 6: I just don't see how Republicans can go along with that. 222 00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,439 Speaker 2: Would you vote yes on a cr that had an 223 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 2: extension of the Obamacare subsidies or is that a deal 224 00:11:38,280 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 2: breaker for you, Congressman, because I know that you also 225 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 2: have a piece of legislation that would deal with this 226 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:46,079 Speaker 2: on a much shorter term level and in fact prevent 227 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 2: the government, if I read it right, from ever shutting down. 228 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, shutdowns are stupid. We should not shut down. 229 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 6: My bill with Senator Ron Johnson in the Senate, the 230 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:59,680 Speaker 6: Eliminate Shutdowns Act, would say anytime the clowns in DC 231 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 6: we can't get our act together, rather than take the 232 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 6: American economy hostage, We're just going to have a short 233 00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,520 Speaker 6: term fourteen day cr to allow the politicians to get 234 00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 6: to yes. 235 00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 3: And that is, in. 236 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,880 Speaker 6: Essence, exactly what the Republican offer is today, not for 237 00:12:14,960 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 6: two weeks, but for six or seven weeks until the 238 00:12:17,640 --> 00:12:22,680 Speaker 6: Friday before Thanksgiving. It is unprecedented that a party would 239 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 6: say no, no, no, no, we don't want to negotiate 240 00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:27,960 Speaker 6: for six weeks. Instead of negotiating, we're going to shut 241 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 6: the whole thing down because we can't secure one point 242 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 6: five trillion dollars in new healthcare subsidies. I just think 243 00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 6: Chuck Schumer is asking for heaven and Earth and spending 244 00:12:40,760 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 6: and health care for illegal aliens and healthcare subsidies for 245 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 6: rich Americans. There is no way on God's green Earth 246 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:50,280 Speaker 6: the Republicans are going to give all of that up 247 00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,920 Speaker 6: in return for just a six week stopgap. 248 00:12:54,400 --> 00:12:57,960 Speaker 5: Well, Congressman, what's also raised the stakes of these negotiations, 249 00:12:57,960 --> 00:12:59,880 Speaker 5: perhaps is that we know that there's been this om 250 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 5: Be memo threatening permanent layoffs if the government does shut down. 251 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:08,240 Speaker 5: Do you think that's the right strategy here by Republicans 252 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:13,559 Speaker 5: to potentially use a shutdown period to slash the federal workforce. 253 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 6: In general, the party that loses the shutdown loses it 254 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 6: because they don't seem reasonable. So right now today, it's 255 00:13:22,679 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 6: pretty clear to me that the Republican ask is very basic. 256 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:28,960 Speaker 6: It's not a Republican win or a Democrat win. It's just, hey, 257 00:13:29,240 --> 00:13:31,319 Speaker 6: let's keep the government open for six weeks. Whant me 258 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 6: to negotiate That is eminently reasonable, which means that I 259 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 6: think the current environment means that Democrats probably are going 260 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 6: to be in some trouble. 261 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:39,560 Speaker 5: Now. 262 00:13:39,559 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 6: I understand what the administration's trying to do, and Lord knows, 263 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 6: there's plenty waste, fraud, and abuse to cut. So if 264 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:48,960 Speaker 6: they use that scalpel in a way that seems targeted 265 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 6: and an appropriate, I think it can help the messaging. 266 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 3: If they go in and they. 267 00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 6: Do things that are a little bit more nuclear, I 268 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:58,800 Speaker 6: think that could make Republicans seem not quite so reasonable. 269 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 6: That could show the political landscape. So I would just 270 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:05,600 Speaker 6: say I expect the administration to do the right thing 271 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 6: in cutting government during the shutdown. I don't think it's 272 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 6: just a threat. I think Russ's vote is absolutely serious. 273 00:14:12,600 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 6: I think he and President Trump are going to cut 274 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,040 Speaker 6: the places they think are appropriate to cut. 275 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 3: If we're in. 276 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 2: Shutdown, well, you know, you speak of the Eliminate Shutdowns Act. 277 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 2: As a matter of fact, we're going to have Senator 278 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,400 Speaker 2: Ron Johnson on with us on the late edition of 279 00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 2: Balance of Power at five o'clock, so we've got both 280 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:32,520 Speaker 2: chambers covered here. Congressman, isn't this the very reason why 281 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 2: you're out? You're going to run for governor instead of 282 00:14:35,320 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 2: put up with more of this? 283 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 6: No, No, I'm really not running away from Washington d C. 284 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 6: I mean, it's been an honor of a lifetime. I 285 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 6: do feel like I'm relevant. I get to be in 286 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,200 Speaker 6: a lot of rooms where we're trying to make America better, 287 00:14:47,240 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 6: and frankly, the Republican House has done a much better 288 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:52,400 Speaker 6: job in the last nine months than I think most 289 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,640 Speaker 6: people expected. So now I'm not running away from DC. 290 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:59,080 Speaker 6: I'm really running toward my state that I love, and 291 00:14:59,080 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 6: I think we've got some import things to do. I 292 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 6: think I'm the leader to help get them done. 293 00:15:04,720 --> 00:15:07,120 Speaker 5: And Congressman, I do want to pivot to another topic 294 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:09,720 Speaker 5: just quickly in our final minutes with you, and that 295 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:11,960 Speaker 5: has to do with tariffs, because we've seen a flurry 296 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 5: of new announcements from President Trump in the past few days, 297 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 5: and your fellow South Dakota colleague. Senate Majority Leader John 298 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:22,120 Speaker 5: Thune did say, or suggested rather in an interview over 299 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,520 Speaker 5: the weekend, that there are discussions about a potential bailout 300 00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:29,600 Speaker 5: for US farmers. You, of course represent a top agriculture 301 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 5: producing state. I'm wondering if you've had any discussions about 302 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,040 Speaker 5: what those potential solutions would look like. 303 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:38,840 Speaker 6: Yeah, the last time we got into a trade dispute 304 00:15:38,840 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 6: with China, American farmers were again the tip of the sphere. 305 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 6: A lot of the harm of that trade dispute fell 306 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 6: on farmers. So Secretary of Agriculture Snity Purdue did put 307 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:52,920 Speaker 6: together a pretty good plan and two different trunches to 308 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 6: help American producers. We're probably in a better position today 309 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 6: to be able to finance that we financed. 310 00:15:58,640 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 3: That than we were back then. 311 00:16:00,320 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 6: We've got hundreds of billions of dollars of tariff revenue 312 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,960 Speaker 6: coming in. I think most members of Congress, whether they're 313 00:16:06,080 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 6: urban or rural, understand that's spending some of that tariff 314 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:13,040 Speaker 6: revenue to try to ease shave down some of the 315 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 6: most jagged edges of what the American farmer is going 316 00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 6: through probably would be helpful. China's doing everything they can 317 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 6: to hurt the American soybean farmer. We probably need that. 318 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 6: We absolutely should help the American soybean farmer get through 319 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 6: this rough patch. 320 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 3: Congressman, it's great to have you back. 321 00:16:28,480 --> 00:16:33,520 Speaker 2: Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, stay with. 322 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 3: Us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming 323 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 3: up after this. 324 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 325 00:16:44,520 --> 00:16:48,400 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, 326 00:16:48,440 --> 00:16:51,520 Speaker 1: and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on 327 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live 328 00:16:54,920 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: on YouTube. 329 00:16:57,960 --> 00:17:01,560 Speaker 2: Another big breaker from the weekends, busy weekend, were you 330 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 2: out barbecuing because we've got a lot of stuff to 331 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:06,399 Speaker 2: unpack here. Yeah, we've got a government shutdown that could 332 00:17:06,600 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 2: potentially take hold tomorrow evening. Benjaminett yahoos in town. We 333 00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:13,239 Speaker 2: could be talking about Middle East peace less than an 334 00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:15,880 Speaker 2: hour from now when they hold a bilateral news conference. 335 00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,400 Speaker 2: National Guard troops are being deployed to the streets of Portland. 336 00:17:19,160 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 2: And how about this. 337 00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:22,880 Speaker 3: Eric Adams is out of the race in New York. 338 00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 2: Quit his reelection campaign with poll numbers that we've talked 339 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:29,760 Speaker 2: about here in the single digits and a president of 340 00:17:29,760 --> 00:17:31,840 Speaker 2: the United States who was urging him to drop out 341 00:17:31,840 --> 00:17:35,200 Speaker 2: of the race, even dangling the idea of a fancy 342 00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:38,480 Speaker 2: new job, maybe run housing and urban development, maybe be 343 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,840 Speaker 2: an ambassador to Saudi Arabia. That was a couple of 344 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 2: weeks ago when Eric Adams said he was going nowhere. 345 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 2: Of course that was not his tune yesterday. Let's listen 346 00:17:49,720 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 2: to the Mayor of New York. 347 00:17:51,640 --> 00:17:56,600 Speaker 7: Major change is welcome and necessary, but beware of those 348 00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 7: who claim the answer. 349 00:17:58,400 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 3: To destroy the very. 350 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 7: System we built together over generations. That is not changed. 351 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 7: That is chaos. Instead, our urged New York as du 352 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:14,560 Speaker 7: chool's leaders, not by what they promised, but by what 353 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 7: they have delivered. 354 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:19,880 Speaker 2: Well, now, wait a minute, who was he talking about there, 355 00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:22,480 Speaker 2: and what do we think about sitting in the stairwell 356 00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 2: for that video. If you were with us on YouTube, 357 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 2: you see what I'm talking about. Knowing where the polls were, 358 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,040 Speaker 2: Eric Adams was at the bottom even in the most 359 00:18:31,040 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 2: recent Suffolk University polls, trailing Curtis Sliwa. 360 00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 3: So will it make a difference. 361 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,600 Speaker 2: We assembled our political panel because they've had their eyes 362 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:40,840 Speaker 2: on this too. Rick Davis and Genie Shanze no Bloomberg 363 00:18:40,880 --> 00:18:44,040 Speaker 2: Politics contributors are back together on this Monday. Genie is 364 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:47,680 Speaker 2: democracy visiting fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School Ash Center. Rick 365 00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:53,679 Speaker 2: is partner at stone Core Capital and our Republican strategist. Genie, 366 00:18:53,680 --> 00:18:56,440 Speaker 2: you know Poles as well as anybody. Will this actually 367 00:18:56,440 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 2: make a dent? If Eric Adams was at eight percent 368 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 2: here and mister mom Donnie was at forty five percent? 369 00:19:02,200 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 3: What just happened? Joe? 370 00:19:05,320 --> 00:19:07,320 Speaker 8: I thought you were going to bring us in on 371 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:10,919 Speaker 8: old Blue Eyes a little Frank Sinatra, because that's what 372 00:19:11,160 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 8: Eric Adams. 373 00:19:11,800 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 3: Played in his video. 374 00:19:13,160 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 8: So when you said two and I got all excited 375 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 8: for some I did it my way. But there was 376 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:21,159 Speaker 8: just him at the bottom of the stairway, which was 377 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 8: telling it's where he is in the polls. You know, 378 00:19:24,240 --> 00:19:27,720 Speaker 8: of course, the main beneficiarya of this is Andrew Cuomo 379 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:31,600 Speaker 8: that said Eric Adams was eight or nine percent in 380 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,399 Speaker 8: the polls, depending on which Poles you look at, and 381 00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 8: so even if he gets all of those supporters, it's 382 00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,760 Speaker 8: not enough to help him. You know, there is a 383 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:44,400 Speaker 8: scenario in which Cuomo could make a go of this, 384 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 8: particularly Curtis Lee, while the Republican got out and it 385 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:51,160 Speaker 8: was a two man race, but Curtis is saying he's 386 00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 8: staying in and that makes it really, really. 387 00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 3: Tough for Cuomo. 388 00:19:55,359 --> 00:19:59,159 Speaker 8: So I think the polls are still pretty clear. Mumdani 389 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:03,560 Speaker 8: doubled lead and he's held that ever since they began 390 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:04,800 Speaker 8: polling on this race. 391 00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:06,560 Speaker 3: After the primary election. 392 00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:11,040 Speaker 2: President Trump weighs in. Rick says that Mom Donnie's victory 393 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:13,840 Speaker 2: would be quote one of the best things to ever 394 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 2: happen to our great Republican Party unquote. Keeps threatening as 395 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:22,240 Speaker 2: well to withhold federal funds from New York City if 396 00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 2: mister mam Donnie is the next mayor, Is he right 397 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 2: about one of the best things to happen to Republican 398 00:20:27,840 --> 00:20:30,560 Speaker 2: Party because this could be quite the foil for Donald 399 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 2: Trump the next couple of years. 400 00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 9: Yeah, there's no question that the Republics will make good 401 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:38,520 Speaker 9: use of it, especially in the midterms. I mean, Mondanie's 402 00:20:38,560 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 9: going to become probably the most famous Democrat in the 403 00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 9: United States by the time you're done with the twenty 404 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:48,439 Speaker 9: twenty six advertising campaign. I mean, he will appear in 405 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:52,360 Speaker 9: legislative districts all over the country, you know, saying that 406 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 9: this is the new Democratic Party. 407 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:56,760 Speaker 10: Socialists, So prepare for that. 408 00:20:57,240 --> 00:21:00,440 Speaker 9: And I think, as Jenny said, this goose it's pretty 409 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,720 Speaker 9: well cooked. Nothing else of any real substance is going 410 00:21:03,800 --> 00:21:05,480 Speaker 9: to happen in this election. It's going to change the 411 00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 9: outcome and fire the advance man. I mean, I've never 412 00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:11,360 Speaker 9: seen a worse announcement from. 413 00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,800 Speaker 10: The bottom of the stairs. I mean, like so many. 414 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 3: Symbols that are bad. 415 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 2: Oh true, Rick, you work at stone Court Capital, You're 416 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 2: in the private equity business. 417 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 3: What is Wall Street? 418 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 2: What does business in New York think of this prospect? 419 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:28,280 Speaker 3: Are they with Donald Trump? Do they see a communist 420 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 3: coming down the road? You know, there's a lot of. 421 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:34,479 Speaker 9: Spending going on in the business news channels in New 422 00:21:34,560 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 9: York right now. And I think there's a determination now 423 00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 9: that we've got to find common cause with this guy 424 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:44,280 Speaker 9: before he wrecks the conditions of which exists. 425 00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 10: You know, that makes a lot of money in New York. 426 00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 9: And so yeah, I think the business community is very, 427 00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:51,600 Speaker 9: very frightened at this point. 428 00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:53,879 Speaker 3: They never saw this one coming. 429 00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 9: Everybody had this sort of arrogance that no way would 430 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 9: the great city of New York, greatest commercial city in 431 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:05,600 Speaker 9: the world, elect a. 432 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:08,159 Speaker 10: Socialist to be the mayor of the city. 433 00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:11,600 Speaker 9: So I think both on a business level and on 434 00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 9: a personal level, people are worried about the neighborhoods and 435 00:22:14,880 --> 00:22:18,480 Speaker 9: the safety and the cleanliness. You know, New York is 436 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 9: first and foremost a neighborhood, many of them, but it's 437 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 9: how people live in the city and prosper in the 438 00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:29,280 Speaker 9: businesses that surround them. 439 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:33,240 Speaker 2: Genie, I'm curious to hear what's on your mind if this, 440 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 2: in fact is a done deal, and what might come 441 00:22:35,600 --> 00:22:39,280 Speaker 2: from Mom Donnie's proposals in New York, of course, not 442 00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,399 Speaker 2: all of which he will be able to enact. But 443 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:43,719 Speaker 2: also the fact that we talked about this before President 444 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:46,480 Speaker 2: Trump began asking people to drop out of this race. 445 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:49,560 Speaker 3: Everybody's name is still on the ballot. How much confusion 446 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:50,000 Speaker 3: will there be? 447 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:54,680 Speaker 8: That's right, you know, we've got all of these people. 448 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:57,280 Speaker 8: It's too late to remove their names. Even though he's 449 00:22:57,280 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 8: suspending his campaign. In New Yorkers, I think are wise 450 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,520 Speaker 8: enough to know that they'll get the message that he's 451 00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 8: no longer running. But you know, it does create a 452 00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 8: wrinkle in the system. But you know, I do think 453 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:14,520 Speaker 8: there is a small chance that Cuomo could resurrect his campaign. 454 00:23:14,680 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 8: So you're looking at things like, do the police unions 455 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 8: that we're supporting Adams, do they endorse Cuomo that said, 456 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 8: look at something else. Hakim Jeffries, you know, obviously the 457 00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 8: leading Democrat in the House, he has yet to endorse Mumdani. 458 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:36,800 Speaker 3: Similarly, Chuck Schumer. 459 00:23:36,800 --> 00:23:39,879 Speaker 8: And Hakim Jeffries got a lot of criticism over the 460 00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:44,280 Speaker 8: weekend from Democrats because he thanked Adams for his service 461 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,159 Speaker 8: and still neither one of them has endorsed Mumdani. So 462 00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,399 Speaker 8: I think you are, to Rick's point, really talking about 463 00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 8: a huge challenge for moderate, middle of the road Democrats 464 00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,440 Speaker 8: who are very, very worried about what Mundani has said 465 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 8: he is going to try to do. And of course 466 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:06,000 Speaker 8: he does have the endorsement of the governor, which gives 467 00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,800 Speaker 8: him a leg up because she's facing a tough reelection 468 00:24:09,240 --> 00:24:11,680 Speaker 8: in that six months. If he's elected, he's going to 469 00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 8: need her, She's going to need him more, and he 470 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,879 Speaker 8: may get more from Albany then we would think he 471 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:21,160 Speaker 8: would if she wasn't facing such a tough reelection bid. 472 00:24:21,480 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 8: So a lot of politics for Democrats at play here 473 00:24:24,240 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 8: that are going to give Mumdani potentially a leg up 474 00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 8: if he's elected. 475 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 2: Well, you know, we're standing by, as I've mentioned a 476 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 2: couple of times here for a news conference at the 477 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 2: White House. In fact, we just got our first view 478 00:24:35,960 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 2: of the State dining Room where President Trump and Benjamin 479 00:24:38,520 --> 00:24:41,560 Speaker 2: Netanyahu are going to be holding forth with reporters there. 480 00:24:41,600 --> 00:24:43,000 Speaker 3: You see it on YouTube right now. 481 00:24:43,000 --> 00:24:45,600 Speaker 2: They're just getting the room together and getting things prepped, 482 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 2: the flags podiums in place. 483 00:24:47,920 --> 00:24:48,080 Speaker 3: Rick. 484 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,679 Speaker 2: One of the concerns that some conservatives and even some 485 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 2: progressives have in New York is over Zorn Mumdani's perceived 486 00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:03,439 Speaker 2: relationship with the Jewish community, based on his remarks in 487 00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:05,600 Speaker 2: the past. He's tried to get around that, but I 488 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 2: wonder to what extent that will play out in the 489 00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:09,760 Speaker 2: voting results here. 490 00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,640 Speaker 9: Yeah, I think that he's got a really troubled relationship 491 00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:22,240 Speaker 9: with the Jewish community in New York. I've heard references 492 00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:28,080 Speaker 9: made to him that you know, would be included in the. 493 00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 10: Listings of anti Semitic remarks. 494 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 9: I don't know offhand, but like that is a that 495 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:37,640 Speaker 9: is a appearance that exists there, There's no question about it. 496 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,639 Speaker 9: And what is interesting to me is, you know, having 497 00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 9: watched the campaign more intensely in the last couple of 498 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,679 Speaker 9: months is he doesn't seem to be really working that 499 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:48,480 Speaker 9: hard to fix that problem. 500 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:54,520 Speaker 10: No high profile endorsements from Jewish community leaders. 501 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,800 Speaker 9: And so I do think that adds some of the 502 00:25:58,880 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 9: tension to certainly that community that lives, you know, inside 503 00:26:04,040 --> 00:26:08,359 Speaker 9: the city. So uh, and I think too it plays 504 00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,199 Speaker 9: into the Trump narrative, you know, is to sort of 505 00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:15,320 Speaker 9: how out of the mainstream, you know, this this individual 506 00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 9: is Mundami. And as you know, Donald Trump has made 507 00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 9: a cause fighting anti Semitic behavior on college campuses and elsewhere. 508 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:29,639 Speaker 9: And regardless of the motivations, you know, he now owns 509 00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,639 Speaker 9: that and certainly will make good use of it in 510 00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,120 Speaker 9: a Mandami administration. 511 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 2: With all of this said, Genie, considering what Rick is 512 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:43,720 Speaker 2: suggesting about the business community's view of the Mamdani candidacy, here, 513 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:47,400 Speaker 2: do you do you believe turnout in New York will 514 00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:51,760 Speaker 2: reflect what we're seeing in the polls? 515 00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:54,200 Speaker 8: It might, you know, I think one thing to keep 516 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:57,439 Speaker 8: in mind is the primary we use rank choice voting, 517 00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,960 Speaker 8: and we do not use that in the general less. 518 00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,640 Speaker 8: I don't think that's going to change what we're seeing 519 00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 8: in the polls dramatically, but it is something to keep 520 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,879 Speaker 8: in mind. And of course, in a primary, you're talking 521 00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,760 Speaker 8: very low turnout. It will be bigger and it will 522 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:16,720 Speaker 8: be more energized in the general, but still not as 523 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:19,760 Speaker 8: robust as it should be. So that can always have 524 00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:23,160 Speaker 8: an impact. And you know I mentioned before Chuck Schumer. 525 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,360 Speaker 8: You know there's a lot of speculation that his reluctance 526 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:30,920 Speaker 8: so far to endorse Mumdani is tied to this issue 527 00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:32,280 Speaker 8: of anti Semitism. 528 00:27:33,160 --> 00:27:34,840 Speaker 10: And but Mundani, if you. 529 00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:38,720 Speaker 8: Just look at the split, consider Joe Biden, how much 530 00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 8: he was hugging Israel Netanyaku, the Israeli lobby versus somebody 531 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:48,480 Speaker 8: like Mumdani almost perfectly captures this deep division in the 532 00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:52,560 Speaker 8: Democratic Party right now, and we are seeing it particularly 533 00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,640 Speaker 8: amongst young people. So this is a generational battle as well. 534 00:27:56,840 --> 00:27:59,240 Speaker 8: Remember Mamdani just a few weeks ago told The New 535 00:27:59,320 --> 00:28:02,159 Speaker 8: York Times at a tour board, if Natanyahu came to 536 00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,360 Speaker 8: New York and he was mayor, he would. 537 00:28:04,160 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 3: Have him arrested. 538 00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,240 Speaker 2: Well, look, that's why I ask, and I don't know 539 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 2: your thoughts, Rick, on this split in the Democratic Party. 540 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:13,719 Speaker 2: Are all of those young people going to turn out 541 00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:16,000 Speaker 2: to vote or will it be more complicated than that? 542 00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:22,239 Speaker 9: Well, they certainly did during the primary. I mean in 543 00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:26,600 Speaker 9: the neighborhoods that were younger. We saw polling data that 544 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,760 Speaker 9: said he was fourteen points above any other Democrat in 545 00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:35,080 Speaker 9: the race in the youth vote and not offset by 546 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,439 Speaker 9: a substantial vote in older neighborhoods. 547 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:39,280 Speaker 10: Gee reference it. 548 00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 9: But like New York City, voters are not very good 549 00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 9: at turning out. I mean, an average turnout these days 550 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 9: is below twenty five percent. 551 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 10: I mean, it's probably one of the nation's. 552 00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:54,720 Speaker 9: Lowest voter turnouts and one of the greatest cities in 553 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 9: the world. 554 00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 10: And so you really have to scratch your head and. 555 00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,760 Speaker 9: Say, you know, if there's a if there's a strategy 556 00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,560 Speaker 9: here is to turn out people who don't normally vote. 557 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:04,960 Speaker 10: Now, it's a hard. 558 00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:05,240 Speaker 3: Thing to do. 559 00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 9: I've been posed with having to try that myself when 560 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 9: the electricive is normally turning out as opposed to you. 561 00:29:12,200 --> 00:29:15,280 Speaker 9: But that has got to be quemost strategy is to 562 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,840 Speaker 9: go out there and say, there are seventy five percent 563 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,640 Speaker 9: of the people registered and eligible to vote on election 564 00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:22,360 Speaker 9: day who don't turn out. 565 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,680 Speaker 10: I need my share of those guys. I'm gonna go 566 00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 10: get them. 567 00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:30,240 Speaker 2: Well, fascinating conversation, what a great deep dive with our 568 00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,240 Speaker 2: signature panel on the mayoral race in New York, Rick 569 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:35,040 Speaker 2: Davis and Jeanie Shanzano. 570 00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,320 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. 571 00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:45,680 Speaker 2: Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify. 572 00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,720 Speaker 3: Or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 573 00:29:47,800 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 3: us live every 574 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 2: Weekday from Washington, DC at new Time Eastern at bluebird 575 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 2: dot com.