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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

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Speaker 2: Wouldn't you agree? And five five dollars? This is a rating,

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Speaker 2: a level a tale.

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Speaker 1: You're saying that humans need fantasy to make life.

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Speaker 2: Bearable, humans need fantasy to be Oh my goodness, that's

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Speaker 2: mis speak.

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Speaker 3: I suppose best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, veriable fair.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Fantasy Flex from Action Network and Fantasy Labs.

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Speaker 2: I'm Jim Terurvy of Rodogrinders, hosts of Buckets WNBA podcast.

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Speaker 2: We have a very special crossover episode between Fantasy Flex

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Speaker 2: and Buckets WNBA. Dave, Sean Kerner and I are going

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Speaker 2: to deep dive into betting the WNBA. We're gonna look

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Speaker 2: at the Friday slate. So if you're looking for an

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Speaker 2: edge betting w NBA sides, totals, player props, markets, come

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Speaker 2: check out Buckets WNBA plus. A big reason we're doing

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Speaker 2: this crossover episodes because our brand new WNBA projections are

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Speaker 2: now available in the Action Network app. Sean's the driver

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Speaker 2: of a lot of that info. You definitely want to

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Speaker 2: get on there and check it out. We talk a

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Speaker 2: lot about the sides and totals and the process and

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Speaker 2: all that.

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Speaker 4: A lot of good stuff in here.

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Speaker 2: If you're somehow already not subscribe to action Pro, you

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Speaker 2: definitely want to become an auction Pro subscriber. Get twenty

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Speaker 2: dollars off the annual subscription price right now by visioning

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Speaker 2: actionnetwork dot com slash pro. It's Actionnetwork dot Com slash

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Speaker 2: Pro for twenty dollars off an annual subscription now, without

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Speaker 2: further ado. Let's get into it with the odds maker himself,

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Speaker 2: Sean Turner. Sean, thank you so much for coming in.

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Speaker 2: It's great to have you. The w season is underway.

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Speaker 2: We've got the Kerner eyeballs. What's been catching your eye?

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Speaker 2: How you doing it's been a minute, Well, welcome.

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Speaker 1: In, Yeah, good, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 3: Happy to discuss this juicy five game Fridays late, We've

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Speaker 3: got a couple of revenge games. Had a bit of

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Speaker 3: an up and down start to the season. Up in

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Speaker 3: my toes in the water early on, but started to

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Speaker 3: hit it hard the past week. Had a really good

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Speaker 3: couple of days stretch where I couldn't lose a bet,

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Speaker 3: and then Tuesday where I couldn't win a bet.

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Speaker 1: So look at the bounce back.

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Speaker 3: But it's been fun to kind of we were talking

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Speaker 3: off air, a bit kind of fun to see, you know,

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Speaker 3: how sharp the market has been getting and how fast

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Speaker 3: line moves. It's just a much more efficient market, which

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Speaker 3: makes it tougher, but it's good because it means, you know,

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Speaker 3: there's more action on it. You know, I got to

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Speaker 3: step out my game, like, you know, the market's really

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Speaker 3: sharp right now. So love the fact that we have

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Speaker 3: a handful of games for each team. So this is

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Speaker 3: when I really start to you know, start firing away.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you you go so in depth on these games,

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Speaker 2: and we're gonna do things a little bit different today.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 2: Usually we kind of like give the best bets at

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Speaker 2: the top, a little bit of reasoning and then I

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Speaker 2: do like a broader topic. But with a five game

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Speaker 2: juicy slate with all your tidbits, we're gonna go We're

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Speaker 2: going to go through a game by game and kind

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Speaker 2: of walk through it. We will do a recap of

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Speaker 2: the best bets at the end, So if you're looking

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Speaker 2: for the best bets, we're going to talk through stuff.

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Speaker 2: It's also a very confusing day. There's questionables, there's lines moving,

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Speaker 2: so we're gonna we're going to walk through it all

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Speaker 2: and then we'll clean up at the end and say

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Speaker 2: here's here's what we're doing. But the first game on

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Speaker 2: the slate, well, we'll just start, we'll dive right in,

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Speaker 2: we'll go into it. It's the Liberty minus nine at

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Speaker 2: the Mystics total one sixty eight. A little bit of

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Speaker 2: a funky spot here for Liberty. So third and fourth,

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Speaker 2: third game and fourth nights and four nights pretty uncommon

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Speaker 2: in the WNB. You barely even see back to backs,

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Speaker 2: let alone three and four. They were missing John Coyle

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Speaker 2: Jones tonight already, Niarrasavoli was out already. They kind of,

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Speaker 2: you know, gritted out a game against the Valkyries. Washington,

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Speaker 2: on the flip side, is basically back to full health.

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Speaker 2: So not to give away too much later, but I'm

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Speaker 2: kind of leaning towards the Mystic side here. But Sean,

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Speaker 2: why you talk through what you what you saw about

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Speaker 2: this game? And one thing I'm really excited about is

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Speaker 2: you're coming in with your your power ratings on offense

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Speaker 2: and defense kind of schedule adjusted. So I don't know

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Speaker 2: where do you want to start with this game. I'm

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Speaker 2: excited to hear all your thoughts on it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I do you know, like offensive, defensive ratings

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Speaker 3: and pace for each team where I actually scale it

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Speaker 3: based on the schedule.

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Speaker 1: And so far the Liberty shocking.

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Speaker 3: But they ranked first and offense and first in defense

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Speaker 3: schedule adjusted team ratings and their fourth and pace. So

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Speaker 3: Liberty are the best team in the league right now,

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Speaker 3: no confusion there, Mystics. You know, they've had a nice start.

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Speaker 3: They're kind of the surprises here with both rookies playing

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Speaker 3: at high level. I have them as the tenth ranked

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Speaker 3: offense and right in the middle of the pack, so

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Speaker 3: the sixth ranked defense, middle of the pack, with pace

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Speaker 3: seventh there. So yeah, I'm curious to hear what you're

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Speaker 3: thinking about the Mystics. But like you said, the Liberty

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Speaker 3: just squeaked out a win against the Valkyries at home,

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Speaker 3: so you know, this could be a closer game than

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Speaker 3: people realize. But one thing that I noticed was, you know,

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Speaker 3: the Mystics, they ranked fourth in defensive rating. They've had

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Speaker 3: a very easy start to the schedule this season, the

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Speaker 3: second easiest in terms of opposing offenses, so their defense

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Speaker 3: might be a little bit overrated. Plus they played the

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Speaker 3: Fever when they were missing Kaitlyn Clark. So that's just

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Speaker 3: the little quirk there where the Mystics have had an

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Speaker 3: easier schedule than most, so they're more of a middle

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Speaker 3: a pack defense when you adjust that, and they've leaned

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Speaker 3: heavily on free throws. Twenty four percent of their points

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Speaker 3: have come from the free throw line, highest in the league.

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Speaker 3: Where's the Liberty. They prevented the fewest free throws on

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Speaker 3: the season. So when it comes to props, I'm going

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Speaker 3: to be looking at Britney Sykes point total under. I

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Speaker 3: don't know what it is yet, but I'm going to

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Speaker 3: be looking at the ender because she has been averaging

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Speaker 3: nine point two free throws made per game. So if

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Speaker 3: she's facing a team like the Liberty that do a

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Speaker 3: good job of not sending people of the free throw line,

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Speaker 3: that could be a sneaky angle there. She's gonna have

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Speaker 3: to rely a lot more on field goal attempts and

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Speaker 3: makes to get her points. So that's we don't have

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Speaker 3: props up yet, but I will be looking at Britney

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Speaker 3: sex Under potentially here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I love that.

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Speaker 2: So in fact, I was coming into this like really

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Speaker 2: leaning Washington, and I read a few of your notes.

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Speaker 2: I was like, I'm gonna make this more of a

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Speaker 2: lean than than a full plays. There's some good stuff here.

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Speaker 2: I really like the free throw angle because you talked

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Speaker 2: about with psych So six is averaging twenty two a

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Speaker 2: game this season, but here's her free throw attempts per

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Speaker 2: game to ten, free throw attempts eight, fourteen, thirteen to twelve.

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Speaker 2: This is not something that has happened in her career either.

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Speaker 2: For her career, she averages about three free throws a game.

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Speaker 4: So this is now.

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Speaker 2: Part of this is she is in a much bigger

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Speaker 2: usage role on this Washington Miss six team. She is

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Speaker 2: going to be getting the ball marks, He's going to

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Speaker 2: be aggressive long term with her, kind of like frame.

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Speaker 2: I'm a little bit curious what that means for if

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Speaker 2: she's able to hold up for a full season. I

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Speaker 2: think it's a pretty big ask. She already missed one game.

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Speaker 2: But you're right, you're one hundred percent right on the

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Speaker 2: free throw attempts kind of masking what isn't great shooting her.

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Speaker 2: Actually her field goal percentage is down at thirty five percent.

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Speaker 2: That makes sense. She's taking up more usage, she's going

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Speaker 2: to have less efficiency. She's actually at a career low

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Speaker 2: field goal percentage. It's really those free throw attempts that

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Speaker 2: are floating her game. So I think it's a really

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Speaker 2: good read on this. The only counter to the counter

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Speaker 2: that I would have is I don't think she's gonna

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Speaker 2: begin eleven free throw attempts. But this is the third

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Speaker 2: game in Fournites for the Liberty, some tired or some

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Speaker 2: more tired legs, potentially some of the backups playing. You know,

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Speaker 2: we don't know yet what the verdict on John Paul

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Speaker 2: Jones is. We don't know what the verdict on the

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Speaker 2: Rasavli is. We don't know if they're going to rest

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Speaker 2: anyone this game. That's another thing here. I think there's

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Speaker 2: the potential for Sabrina has been dealing with hands stuff now.

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Speaker 2: She had her best game against the Valx tonight of

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Speaker 2: the season, probably, but I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: question marks, And when there's question marks in getting nine

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Speaker 2: points for a home team, I think, when fully healthy,

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Speaker 2: this mix is Miss sixteen is actually pretty decent. I

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Speaker 2: think a few of their rookies are playing a little

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Speaker 2: bit over their head right now, but overall, Shakira Austin

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Speaker 2: just had her best game of the season by far.

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Speaker 2: They're working her back in the lineup, but eventually she's

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Speaker 2: going to be the starting center that can. You know,

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Speaker 2: you talked about this defense definitely getting lucky missing Caitlin

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Speaker 2: so far, having a relatively easy schedule Last year, Sekire

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Speaker 2: Austin when she was on the court, their defensive rating

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Speaker 2: was around ninety two points for one hundred possession. She's

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Speaker 2: an incredible defender. Went healthy, she hasn't looked her best

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Speaker 2: this season. I think they're really working in that. We

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Speaker 2: only got Aliah Edwards back a game or two ago.

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Speaker 2: So this is Washington team. The rookies are looking great,

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Speaker 2: maybe even a little bit better than you know, they

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Speaker 2: will continue to play. They played at a pretty insane

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Speaker 2: level Sonya Citron shooting you know, crazy numbers from the field.

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Speaker 2: Right now, Kiki Area fin looking really strong. I think

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Speaker 2: this Washington team, if healthy, I see as like a

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Speaker 2: talent WHI is like kind of equal with like a

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Speaker 2: fully healthy Sparks team, Like right around that eight seed

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Speaker 2: in the w Right now, there's kind of a big

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Speaker 2: seven that I think are locks for the playoffs. And

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Speaker 2: then it's like a couple of teams like if you know,

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Speaker 2: Dallas gets things going or Chicago gets things going, or

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Speaker 2: you know, if Washington stays healthy. I think that Washington

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Speaker 2: as a healthy team. I think getting nine points at

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Speaker 2: home with some question marks about the Liberty, that's going

194
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Speaker 2: to be a lean for me. Did you any have

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Speaker 2: any of their final spots on that game before we

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Speaker 2: move move on to the next game on the docket

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Speaker 2: for US?

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Speaker 1: Uh No, I like that.

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Speaker 3: I think I initially had it like Liberty minus ten,

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Speaker 3: just like a raw spread projection. But like you mentioned,

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Speaker 3: this is their third game in four nights. They just

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Speaker 3: barely beat the Valkyries at home. I don't know if

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Speaker 3: John Cole Jones is gonna be playing, so yeah, it wouldn't

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Speaker 3: take much to get this down to like a you know,

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Speaker 3: Liberty minus seven, let's say, so yeah, I like grabbing

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Speaker 3: the nine. If John calls ruled out, I would imagine

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Speaker 3: it maybe goes down to eight.

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Speaker 1: Seven.

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Speaker 3: She alone is probably worth like three three and a

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Speaker 3: half points. But on the Liberty, there's so many good

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Speaker 3: players that it would probably have to take like a

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Speaker 3: couple of them to be ruled out or Breonna Stewart

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Speaker 3: to move you know, three points. But John cold Jones,

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Speaker 3: especially in a closer game, like this, like the Valkyrie's

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Speaker 3: not going to move the line as much. But a

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Speaker 3: closer game like this that's already single digits, you know,

217
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Speaker 3: she could move it down to eight or seven. So

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Speaker 3: either way, I think if you do like the Mystics,

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Speaker 3: you got to get on it.

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Speaker 2: At nine camp, yeah, were sure if you were hawking

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Speaker 2: the line movement for the Liberty, and it is interesting

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Speaker 2: open at eighteen. I think it came down to around seventeen.

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Speaker 2: I was wondering if that was because John Cole got

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Speaker 2: questionable prayer early. I was wondering if it was that

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Speaker 2: continue to move throughout the day. I think it may

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Speaker 2: have gotten down to a round fifteen, but there was

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Speaker 2: always When we had Dano on on Tuesday, he was

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Speaker 2: talking about how Liberty on the second half of these

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Speaker 2: back to backs really kind of like to play with

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Speaker 2: their food.

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Speaker 4: He called it. He read he got to read perfectly.

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Speaker 2: Hopefully you bet that kind of ahead of time having

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Speaker 2: heard Dan would say that, so I was wondering how

234
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Speaker 2: much of his John call. Because I'm with you, I

235
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Speaker 2: think one of the most interesting things is talking about

236
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Speaker 2: how much of player's worth this spread, and John Cole

237
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Speaker 2: is a phenomenal player former MVP. But there is depth here.

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Speaker 2: But then the butt to the butt is they also

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Speaker 2: had Niarosaboli out, who would have been, you know, filling

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Speaker 2: in some of those front core minutes. So I thought

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Speaker 2: that was a really interesting line to watch move around

242
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Speaker 2: all day.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think John Quell getting ruled out definitely moved

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Speaker 3: it down. And you know, it is around that seventeen

245
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Speaker 3: point range that comes down to just effort, Like you said, like,

246
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Speaker 3: if the Liberty really want to win by more than that,

247
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Speaker 3: they probably can, but with John call out, it's hard

248
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Speaker 3: to move it too much in that range. So that

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Speaker 3: was probably just sharp action. I think the Valkyries are underrated.

250
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Speaker 3: I had them opening night plus seven and a half

251
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Speaker 3: looks like a great bet. Now unfortunately that night it

252
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Speaker 3: didn't work out. But I think they're they're underrated, so

253
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Speaker 3: I think they're going to be getting sharp money in

254
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Speaker 3: certain spots this here for sure.

255
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been impressed with the Valks. I think they're

256
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Speaker 2: a really fun team, and I think Natalie Nicassi looks

257
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Speaker 2: like she might be one of the best hires of

258
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Speaker 2: the offseason. Like this, this team isn't going to be

259
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Speaker 2: competing for stuff this year, but I'm very interested in

260
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Speaker 2: the future of that team. All right, let's go to

261
00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:37,839
Speaker 2: a team that I'm not as interested in. The Connecticut

262
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Speaker 2: Sun at the Indiana Fever. Fever are laying twelve even

263
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Speaker 2: though they have no Caitlin Clark, the totals one sixty two.

264
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Speaker 2: Part of this is that on the Connecticut side of things,

265
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Speaker 2: we have Marina Maybery and Olivia Nelsandoto, both questionable, both starters,

266
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Speaker 2: both very important, maybe incredibly important to this team. If

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Speaker 2: she's not playing, an already bad team gets really really bad. Sean,

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Speaker 2: I see your numbers here and they're the insides of

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Speaker 2: my eyeballs out looking at these sudden ratings. So is

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Speaker 2: this the worst team in the w for your money?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they are because we expected them to be bad

272
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Speaker 3: and they have been bad. So they ranked twelfth in

273
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Speaker 3: both offense and defensive ratings schedule adjusted. The Sky claim

274
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Speaker 3: the worst honors, but I feel like the Sky are

275
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Speaker 3: a team they're probably underachieving. We expect them to maybe

276
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Speaker 3: bounce back a bit. They did tonight, right, so they

277
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Speaker 3: won tonight, where you know they're probably going to still

278
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Speaker 3: be a bottom half team in the league. But the

279
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Speaker 3: Signer absolutely the worst team in my opinion. So this

280
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Speaker 3: this is a rough spot, and you know, Kaitlin Clark's

281
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Speaker 3: going to be out, and it looked like I was

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Speaker 3: kind of right that I thought the market would adjust

283
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Speaker 3: the Fever powerating down about three and a half to

284
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Speaker 3: four points.

285
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Speaker 1: And that's about how much I think they.

286
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Speaker 3: Lowered their power rating last game against the Mystics, have

287
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Speaker 3: them about minus seven minus seven and a half and

288
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Speaker 3: that line closed Fever minus four and the Mystics won outright,

289
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Speaker 3: So I think that the public's going to be pretty

290
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Speaker 3: much giving kit and Clark four four and a half

291
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Speaker 3: points a value on the line. Whether you agree with

292
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Speaker 3: that or not doesn't matter. It's just what the market thinks.

293
00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:22,360
Speaker 3: And obviously she is the most popular player in the world,

294
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Speaker 3: so she's worth about four to four and a half

295
00:13:24,640 --> 00:13:25,680
Speaker 3: points against the spread.

296
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Speaker 1: So having said.

297
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Speaker 3: That, this is a matchup where it probably doesn't matter

298
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Speaker 3: that much, I think the Fever should still be favored

299
00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:39,080
Speaker 3: by thirteen fourteen here because, like you mentioned, you know,

300
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,880
Speaker 3: Connecticut might be without Marina Maybury here. I'm not sure

301
00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,960
Speaker 3: what injury she's dealing with, but I know that she

302
00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:48,360
Speaker 3: wants out of there. She demanded a trade before the

303
00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:50,480
Speaker 3: season and it was rejected, so I think she might

304
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Speaker 3: be out of there at some point, but they're going

305
00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,640
Speaker 3: to be even worse without her, so that's something a monitor.

306
00:13:56,720 --> 00:13:58,920
Speaker 3: So the fact that the fever or minus twelve right

307
00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:04,119
Speaker 3: now with Maybury and you said Nelson Nodota is also questionable.

308
00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:06,600
Speaker 3: It is kind of weird. I bet that ends up

309
00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 3: being bet up tomorrow. Either way, the Fever is still

310
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Speaker 3: going to take public money, so I'm still projecting that

311
00:14:13,760 --> 00:14:18,200
Speaker 3: around thirteen and a half, So that one's interesting. You know,

312
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,560
Speaker 3: when it came to the total, I love the under heroes.

313
00:14:22,600 --> 00:14:25,560
Speaker 3: It opened one sixty five and a half, but typical

314
00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:27,720
Speaker 3: with you know, the rest of the season, the total

315
00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:30,760
Speaker 3: dropped like three points immediately, so somebody bet it down

316
00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 3: way too high. So I'm kind of in line with

317
00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:36,560
Speaker 3: it being right here around one sixty two, one sixty

318
00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,560
Speaker 3: one and a half. So this this probably isn't a

319
00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:42,840
Speaker 3: game I'm interested too much on spread er total, but

320
00:14:43,200 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 3: this is a do Wana Bonner revenge game spot and

321
00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:49,520
Speaker 3: she stepped up for twenty one points off the bench

322
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Speaker 3: last game in twenty five minutes, so I'm sure her

323
00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,400
Speaker 3: points props are going to be juiced up. But this

324
00:14:54,440 --> 00:14:57,320
Speaker 3: is a spot to consider taking. You know Bonner's over

325
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Speaker 3: points if you believe in the revenge game here.

326
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:03,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely will be keeping an eye on Bonner. She,

327
00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:05,360
Speaker 2: like you said, she had her best game. She's been

328
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Speaker 2: struggling to start the season. She really kind of broke

329
00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:09,440
Speaker 2: out this most recent game. Youre just to see what

330
00:15:09,520 --> 00:15:11,520
Speaker 2: they do with starters and stuff. But I think the

331
00:15:11,600 --> 00:15:13,720
Speaker 2: total is maybe the most interesting thing here. We saw

332
00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:15,840
Speaker 2: in the first game with Caitlin, they opened a really

333
00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:19,200
Speaker 2: low number. To a degree that makes sense. Kitlin does

334
00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,880
Speaker 2: not have a strong defensive reputation, has an incredible offense reputation,

335
00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:25,160
Speaker 2: so it's one of those where it's hammering both sides

336
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,120
Speaker 2: of it. But the number got up like six and

337
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,800
Speaker 2: a half points something that from where it opened to

338
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,400
Speaker 2: wear it closed and ironically it landed right smacked out

339
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:35,520
Speaker 2: in the middle. So she got that opening number, you

340
00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:37,640
Speaker 2: cleared the over and it needed kind of a miracle

341
00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,880
Speaker 2: to get there. Bonner hit a three like basically at

342
00:15:39,920 --> 00:15:43,880
Speaker 2: the buzzer to clear that over, and now we're seeing

343
00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 2: the opposite. They opened it the next game really high,

344
00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,480
Speaker 2: quickly took three points. To be curious to see if

345
00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:50,920
Speaker 2: it does the full inverse goes down in the high

346
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:52,920
Speaker 2: one fifties, and then it's going to land.

347
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Speaker 4: Somewhere in the middle.

348
00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:56,200
Speaker 2: Again, were you on that either way for that first

349
00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:58,960
Speaker 2: Kaitlin out game on the total, Oh no, that.

350
00:15:58,960 --> 00:16:02,840
Speaker 3: Was the day after my Tuesday disaster, So I was

351
00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 3: completely off of everything that day, especially the first game

352
00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:06,960
Speaker 3: without Caitlin Clark.

353
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Speaker 1: I didn't want to touch that. I was pretty much

354
00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:10,760
Speaker 1: in line with that. I didn't get it.

355
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,240
Speaker 3: You said it opened up way higher. I didn't see

356
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,080
Speaker 3: it at the open. I tend to wait, so the

357
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,840
Speaker 3: limits are a little bit higher. But yeah, like I

358
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:24,000
Speaker 3: projected that game around one sixty three, so I was

359
00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:26,440
Speaker 3: I was kind of in the middle of the opener

360
00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:29,400
Speaker 3: and the close. But yeah, I think like you said,

361
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 3: like most of Caitlin Clark's value, the four points or

362
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:37,120
Speaker 3: so on the spread, is essentially for the total as well.

363
00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,840
Speaker 3: Most of that is offense, So yeah, her impacts on

364
00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,600
Speaker 3: the total should be around three to four points. And

365
00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:46,560
Speaker 3: that's that's kind of why I have this right around

366
00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:48,720
Speaker 3: one sixty one and a half for this matchup. But

367
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,360
Speaker 3: if again, if Maybury's ruled out, maybe you know, I

368
00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 3: would I would lower it to you know, one p

369
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,560
Speaker 3: fifty nine and a half, let's say, but I think

370
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 3: the total has been pretty much spot on for this game.

371
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, Maybury's definitely one of those players who right now.

372
00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:04,679
Speaker 2: Maybury's a very solid player. But it's more that her

373
00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,280
Speaker 2: role on this Connected Sun team is so massive and

374
00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,760
Speaker 2: they don't really have a whole lot of like creative

375
00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,800
Speaker 2: or shot yeah shot creators behind her on that bench,

376
00:17:12,840 --> 00:17:15,639
Speaker 2: so that that could get a little bit ugly. Maybe

377
00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,400
Speaker 2: like a Sun Team total under if maybe it gets

378
00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:20,840
Speaker 2: rolled out, might be where I'd be looking. Because, like

379
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:23,479
Speaker 2: you said, the Indiana defense has been very good. I've

380
00:17:23,560 --> 00:17:26,359
Speaker 2: been very impressed by them. I was very skeptical that

381
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,879
Speaker 2: Steph White could come in and turn that into, you know,

382
00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:30,479
Speaker 2: a top ex defense.

383
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:31,960
Speaker 4: I didn't think they finished in the top half.

384
00:17:31,800 --> 00:17:34,040
Speaker 2: Of the league even and it's very early and there's

385
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:36,359
Speaker 2: time to go, but they look like a pretty solid defense.

386
00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:39,520
Speaker 2: So that's price something worth watching. Let's go to what

387
00:17:40,320 --> 00:17:43,520
Speaker 2: There's two games. We'll start with the one that it's

388
00:17:43,520 --> 00:17:45,440
Speaker 2: near and dear to my heart, two teams that I

389
00:17:45,760 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 2: constantly embedding and hating and loving, and it's it's Atlanta

390
00:17:49,440 --> 00:17:52,439
Speaker 2: at Seattle. Seattle's laying three and a half totals one

391
00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,879
Speaker 2: fifty nine. Here, Atlanta's should have Britney Grinder back. They

392
00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,080
Speaker 2: are still without Jurdy Canda. She's you know, with the

393
00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:00,680
Speaker 2: team and working out, but she's not back on court yet.

394
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:04,760
Speaker 2: For Seattle doing injury update, there is Alicia Clark being questionable.

395
00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:06,200
Speaker 2: She's gotten off to a little bit of a slow

396
00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,760
Speaker 2: start this season, so I don't think that's a huge difference,

397
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:12,240
Speaker 2: but the Grinder return is obviously important for Atlanta. Both

398
00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:16,000
Speaker 2: these teams have started off the season pretty strong. But

399
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,240
Speaker 2: what are you seeing when you look at this matchup, Sean.

400
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, so you know, Grinder returning certainly helps, But you

401
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,800
Speaker 3: know this, this is a game where I've been been

402
00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:28,919
Speaker 3: kind of on both these teams to start the season.

403
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 3: I've actually cashed on the Storm their last two games.

404
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 3: It seems like the market has been kind of underrating them,

405
00:18:38,000 --> 00:18:40,159
Speaker 3: so I took them against the Aces. They blew out

406
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:42,600
Speaker 3: the Aces by twenty points, and then they ended up

407
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,600
Speaker 3: making it pretty close against the Links last game. So

408
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,320
Speaker 3: I think the market has finally given them the credit

409
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,280
Speaker 3: they deserve. So I have it, you know, right around

410
00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,400
Speaker 3: three and a half here, so that you know this

411
00:18:54,440 --> 00:18:57,479
Speaker 3: is a pretty even matchup. And there should be a

412
00:18:57,520 --> 00:18:59,920
Speaker 3: slow paced game. I have the Storm as the sky

413
00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,639
Speaker 3: Jewel adjusted slowest pace team in the league, and the

414
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 3: Dream are tenth in pace when you adjust for schedule,

415
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,080
Speaker 3: so I think it's going to be a very slow

416
00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:12,359
Speaker 3: paced games, not too many free throws. Most Storm games

417
00:19:12,400 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 3: this season haven't had many free throws. They rank twelve

418
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:20,800
Speaker 3: and field free throw attempts free throw attempt rate, I

419
00:19:20,840 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 3: should say, and they have a lot of the third

420
00:19:22,600 --> 00:19:24,920
Speaker 3: lowest free throw rate in the league. So this is

421
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:26,800
Speaker 3: a game where could be just a ton of field

422
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:28,240
Speaker 3: goal attempts and a slow pace.

423
00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:29,199
Speaker 1: So I love that.

424
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:31,520
Speaker 3: For the under, I am kind of in line with

425
00:19:31,560 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 3: the one fifty nine, but this is one of those

426
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,679
Speaker 3: games where that if the line does creep up to

427
00:19:37,240 --> 00:19:39,439
Speaker 3: one sixty one or one sixty two and a half,

428
00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,640
Speaker 3: I would love coming in on the under. But as

429
00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 3: of now, I am perfectly aligned with the spread and total.

430
00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:45,760
Speaker 1: Here.

431
00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I lean towards the under. I was thinking about

432
00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 2: making this the best bet. I think it's more of

433
00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 2: a lean for me. I was looking at Peace stuff

434
00:19:51,960 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 2: as well. I also think if you want to attack

435
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 2: this player prop wise, a player who I really love

436
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 2: and who's having a breakout season. But this is kind

437
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:00,119
Speaker 2: of the players is sometimes you have to be the

438
00:20:00,200 --> 00:20:02,680
Speaker 2: under on when when the spot calls for Alisha Gray,

439
00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 2: I might be looking at her for point prop when

440
00:20:05,040 --> 00:20:07,480
Speaker 2: it pops for points prop. I was on the over

441
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:09,639
Speaker 2: the last couple of games without Grinder because her usage

442
00:20:09,680 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 2: really does increase with Briner off the cork. She's her

443
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:15,160
Speaker 2: triple slashes right now. For what she's doing, she's shooting

444
00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,000
Speaker 2: forty nine percent from the field, forty three percent from three,

445
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,159
Speaker 2: and she's leading the team in free throw attempts. If

446
00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:23,719
Speaker 2: we're getting a game with low free throw attempts and

447
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:26,040
Speaker 2: she's due for a bit of regression. As much as

448
00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,680
Speaker 2: I love Alisha Gray with Grinder returning, I think I

449
00:20:28,800 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 2: might be looking at a points prop under for Alicia

450
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 2: Gray here. Unfortunately, we don't have these out right now

451
00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:35,720
Speaker 2: when we're recording, so obviously, I mean, if you don't

452
00:20:35,760 --> 00:20:37,600
Speaker 2: follow Sean in the app and you're listening to this,

453
00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 2: I actually don't think that that's I think that's literally

454
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:42,199
Speaker 2: a ven diagram that is just nobody. I don't think

455
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,080
Speaker 2: anyone listening this is not following, but obviously follow Sean.

456
00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:47,560
Speaker 2: Give me a follow as well. If you are, you're

457
00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 2: not yet. I'll be posting these plays as they come in.

458
00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 2: It might even be as we're done recording we might

459
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,119
Speaker 2: have a few of these. So that was that was

460
00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:56,879
Speaker 2: my looks for those games. This game is probably the

461
00:20:56,920 --> 00:20:58,920
Speaker 2: marquee game of the night, even though the last one

462
00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 2: was my little gym favorite. There the Atlanta Seattle one,

463
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 2: but Minnesota at Phoenix this is probably the marque game

464
00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,280
Speaker 2: of the night. Links are minus three and a half

465
00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,200
Speaker 2: at Phoenix. The totals one fifty eight. This one has

466
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:13,160
Speaker 2: a big old question mark though, because the visa Collier

467
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,280
Speaker 2: is questionable. I'm not loving this trend of the WNBA

468
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 2: becoming more like the NBA. I don't remember this many

469
00:21:18,920 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 2: like like Britney Grander got ruled out thirty minutes before

470
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 2: tip the other day. Now we have a big star

471
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,440
Speaker 2: like questionable. We had John Quell Jones ruled out out

472
00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,640
Speaker 2: of the blue today. This it's hard to talk too

473
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: too much about this because of how much pivots on Collier.

474
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 2: But what have you thought of both of these teams

475
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 2: so far in general?

476
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, so.

477
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 3: Collier is massive against the spread, so you know, if

478
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 3: she's ruled out, you know, probably worth four points or

479
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 3: so by herself. She's, you know, one of the most

480
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,439
Speaker 3: valuable players in the league. But the Links are so

481
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:55,000
Speaker 3: deep that they they you know, they're still going to

482
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 3: be a very good team even without her, so definitely

483
00:21:57,600 --> 00:21:59,119
Speaker 3: worth monitoring her status.

484
00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 1: When I first saw this, it was.

485
00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 3: Five and a half, but that was before any news. Plus,

486
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:08,399
Speaker 3: Alica Thomas popped up on the injury report questionable. She

487
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 3: misspracticed today, but she's been taken off, so Alyssa Thomas

488
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,200
Speaker 3: is good to go. She's probable. So the only injury

489
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,920
Speaker 3: we're looking for is Collier here. But when it comes

490
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:20,080
Speaker 3: to the Links, you know, they're one of the best

491
00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:22,480
Speaker 3: teams in the league, top three team for sure, maybe

492
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,600
Speaker 3: top two. So they're off to a hot five ozho start.

493
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 3: Shouldn't be too surprising. You know, they have a ton

494
00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:33,400
Speaker 3: of depth now. Jessica Shepherd's back like the Carly Samuelson

495
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:35,880
Speaker 3: and she's a great role player.

496
00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:36,879
Speaker 1: So they're a deep team.

497
00:22:37,400 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 3: But they've had by far the easiest schedule so far,

498
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 3: so they might not be as good as their five

499
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:46,960
Speaker 3: zero record, you know, would indicate. And they just won

500
00:22:47,200 --> 00:22:50,439
Speaker 3: free straight games at home where they only beat the

501
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:54,399
Speaker 3: Wings by four. They only beat the Sun by six,

502
00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:57,439
Speaker 3: and they beat the Storm by five, which is exactly

503
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 3: what the spread I had for that game. So they're

504
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 3: squeaking by some shaky teams outside of the Storm there,

505
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 3: so I think that they might be slightly overrated, and

506
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 3: they are a team i'd be looking to bet against

507
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,199
Speaker 3: the spread, maybe not the money line. So this is

508
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,240
Speaker 3: a spot where I actually pegg you know, the Mercury

509
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:19,120
Speaker 3: plus five and a half is a great play, and

510
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 3: you know the Mercury, they've been a bit of a

511
00:23:21,600 --> 00:23:27,199
Speaker 3: surprising team this year, specifically their defense, so their defense

512
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 3: ranks third and schedule adjusted defensive rating for me right now.

513
00:23:31,840 --> 00:23:34,120
Speaker 3: So they're a team that might be able to slow

514
00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:38,320
Speaker 3: down this Link's offense with or without Callier. So I

515
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,520
Speaker 3: peg this as a play at Mercury plus five and

516
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 3: a half. Unfortunately it's down to three and a half,

517
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,840
Speaker 3: but that's because Collier's questionable. That's what I project this

518
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 3: spread to be with a healthy Collier. So if you

519
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 3: could take it at three and a half, now, if

520
00:23:51,760 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 3: color suits up, I think at worst that's probably you know,

521
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 3: a coin flip. But taking it when it's three and

522
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,120
Speaker 3: a half and Collier is still questionable, the game could

523
00:24:01,240 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 3: end up being a pick them, come tip.

524
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 1: Off if Colors ruled out.

525
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 3: So I would say just kind of take the points

526
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 3: now while you can, because I think three and a

527
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,120
Speaker 3: half is a fair price. But again, if Collier gets

528
00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 3: ruled out, this game could end up being a pick them,

529
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 3: or you know, the Mercury could end up being slight

530
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:17,520
Speaker 3: favorites here.

531
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you one hundred percent. I leaned this

532
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 2: direction as well. And you have a note here about,

533
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 2: you know, the test for this Phoenix defense, and I

534
00:24:24,760 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 2: do tend to do this sometimes with like a Marquee

535
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:31,520
Speaker 2: game where it like it's an early season test for Phoenix.

536
00:24:31,560 --> 00:24:34,360
Speaker 2: I actually will be eyeing this game and waiting it,

537
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 2: probably a tiny bit more than I should, but I

538
00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 2: do think that these games are pretty important to look

539
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: at sometimes because this Phoenix defense looks super legitimate and

540
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 2: this Minnesota offense really, like you said that, the Minnesota

541
00:24:46,560 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 2: defense I do think has slipped a little bit, and

542
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,160
Speaker 2: that was the side of the mall I thought potentially

543
00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 2: could slip of the two a little bit. The offense

544
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,240
Speaker 2: has pretty much been right there, and I really want

545
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,360
Speaker 2: to see how Phoenix handles it. They like I want

546
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:01,160
Speaker 2: to see what Maddie is Catherine Westbelt. My west Belt

547
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 2: picked up here, Maddie. I think all in Chicago, but

548
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,160
Speaker 2: Catherine and Phoenix here she can be able to hold

549
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,320
Speaker 2: up against this Minnesota oftense. She's in great so far,

550
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:14,120
Speaker 2: Unika Coha, mccannie see questions like there is. I want

551
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,119
Speaker 2: to see this Phoenix team and this is a big

552
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:19,280
Speaker 2: regular season test for them. I'm pretty high on Phoenix

553
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,840
Speaker 2: in general. I think that Tibbets is doing a great

554
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,719
Speaker 2: job out there, and you know, the front office did

555
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:26,879
Speaker 2: a great job bringing in people that could fit around

556
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,919
Speaker 2: Alyssa Thomas and Sasusavo. So this is gonna be a

557
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 2: really fun game. I'm with you in leading towards Phoenix.

558
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 2: I actually don't you said you might just do the spread.

559
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 2: I don't mind the money line sprinkle. I think there

560
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 2: is the potential like if, especially if Fee is out,

561
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:43,680
Speaker 2: I definitely will be leaning towards the Phoenix side. Thinks

562
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,200
Speaker 2: she's just so so key for them on both ends.

563
00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 2: Her numbers, it's kind of crazy, her numbers on both ends,

564
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 2: and you know she got pretty good cases. You know,

565
00:25:52,240 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 2: tur In Asia as the two best players in the W.

566
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 2: So I'm with you on leaning towards the Phoenix side there,

567
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 2: and then the final game of the night, we have

568
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 2: the Sparks at the Aces Aces lying laying nine points

569
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,680
Speaker 2: total of one sixty five. When I when I first

570
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 2: looked at this game, I almost bet the Sparks without

571
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:12,720
Speaker 2: just instantly I was like, I like that number of

572
00:26:12,720 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 2: go go go. Then I then I, you know, it

573
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 2: was like, do my do my due diligence. See what's

574
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 2: up for Kia Jackson's out. It's a personal thing. It's

575
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:21,440
Speaker 2: not a concussion. She missed a couple of games with concussions.

576
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,399
Speaker 2: She's returned last game, but now is out for a

577
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 2: personal reason. So I think that's closer to a fair line.

578
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,920
Speaker 2: I do still lean towards the Sparks, in part because

579
00:26:31,280 --> 00:26:33,160
Speaker 2: this is the story of the game. If you watch

580
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,560
Speaker 2: the game, you will see this mentioned probably upwards of

581
00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 2: a thousand times. It's a Kelsey Plumber venge game. You know,

582
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:40,880
Speaker 2: she left Las Vegas to get her own you know,

583
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 2: studio to work with, and she has done in La

584
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 2: She's playing really well. What have you seen from these

585
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,399
Speaker 2: two season, from these two teams this season, and what

586
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:50,719
Speaker 2: do you think about this game in general?

587
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: Yeah? So, first off, I like this over.

588
00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 3: I'm projecting it closer to like one sixty nine, so

589
00:26:58,080 --> 00:26:59,680
Speaker 3: I kind of like the fact that it's all the

590
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 3: we do on it one sixty four and a half

591
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 3: one sixty five right now, So I like the over.

592
00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 3: The Sparks defense is worse than you think because they

593
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 3: have the fourth worst defensive rating in the league, but

594
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:15,680
Speaker 3: they've actually faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses. They've

595
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 3: played the Valkyries twice. Even though I love the Valkyries,

596
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,280
Speaker 3: they've faced them twice. Those are easy matchups for the

597
00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 3: defensive side of the ball. They faced the Sky and

598
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:28,160
Speaker 3: the Mercury, so they you know, they've had the easiest schedule.

599
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 3: So I have them as eleventh ranked defense when you

600
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:35,560
Speaker 3: factor in schedule. So the Aces, they've been struggling on

601
00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:40,399
Speaker 3: both ends, especially on offense, I mean Asian Wilson, Jewel Lloyd,

602
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 3: Chelsea Gray. They've all had their career worst field goal

603
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 3: percentage so far, and Jackie Young's not too far off.

604
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:51,480
Speaker 3: It's like our second worst field goal percentage so far.

605
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:52,879
Speaker 1: Maybe, you know, Kelsey Plump.

606
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,879
Speaker 3: Losing someone like that could certainly make an impact, and

607
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,640
Speaker 3: it's going to take them some time to gel with

608
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 3: you know, Jewel Lloyd. So they're gonna back get They're

609
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:03,959
Speaker 3: going to get back on track at some point. And

610
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,200
Speaker 3: what better time than against you know, a bad defense

611
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 3: in the Sparks, So it could happened at once, you know,

612
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 3: where they drop one hundred points.

613
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:13,880
Speaker 1: We know it's coming with the Aces.

614
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 3: So and then on the offensive side, you know, Kelsey

615
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 3: Plums playing great. This is a revenge game. So this

616
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 3: is a game I could see, you know, a lot

617
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 3: of points. I was kind of shocked to see the

618
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 3: total so low, just because it does seem like scoring's up.

619
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:32,720
Speaker 3: Pace is kind of up. So I'm finally happy to

620
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:35,160
Speaker 3: be on the other side of a total. I've been

621
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,600
Speaker 3: you know, sweating these unders where you know, neither team

622
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 3: can miss a shot. So this this one will be

623
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,920
Speaker 3: fun to be on the over and again, I think

624
00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:45,680
Speaker 3: just the Aces offense, they're going to bounce back at

625
00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 3: some point.

626
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: I think this is the perfect spot for it.

627
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 2: Well, and it's a Kelsey Plumb revenge game. It's also

628
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 2: all of our teammates revenge game for filling you know

629
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:54,480
Speaker 2: that we can still get it done, you know, without

630
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 2: you in town here. So there are two sides of

631
00:28:56,880 --> 00:28:59,080
Speaker 2: that coin. I really like the over here as well,

632
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 2: and I think, actually this might transition.

633
00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,160
Speaker 4: Us really quick. We can do it.

634
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 2: We can do the best bets right after this. But

635
00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,520
Speaker 2: we when we have a guest on, we like doing

636
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:11,200
Speaker 2: the little game script parlay here and Sean is you know,

637
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 2: one of the best best to be talking about this with.

638
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 2: And we both landed on the same game that we

639
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 2: wanted to do, the same game parlay. It's this final

640
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 2: game of the day, it's the sparks aces with. You

641
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 2: have more options when you bet same game parlays to

642
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 2: do over, so I usually skew towards games that I

643
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 2: think are gonna be higher scoring. I lean towards and

644
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 2: over because a lot of those there's a lot of

645
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 2: one way markets in the same game parlays. So you

646
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 2: have a couple of notes here. I'm gonna refer to

647
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 2: you to start, and then I'll kind of build off

648
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:38,880
Speaker 2: of it and we will see if we can build

649
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 2: it here in the moment and get you guys the

650
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 2: same game parlay. Although I guess the props are now

651
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: so we won't be able to do it just yet.

652
00:29:45,320 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 2: I'll check if they came in in the meantime, But

653
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 2: you want to talk through what you're thinking script wise here.

654
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, so obviously going with like the over one sixty

655
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 3: four and a half one sixty five and a half,

656
00:29:56,200 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 3: whatever it is, and then taking advantage of the Plum

657
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 3: revenge game only if it's showing value in your projections.

658
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 3: I know they're going to boost her point prop up,

659
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 3: so we could go with like another revenge game spot

660
00:30:10,680 --> 00:30:14,479
Speaker 3: with Derek a Hanby over her points and maybe Kelsey

661
00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:18,240
Speaker 3: Plumb over assists, like they might pay too much attention

662
00:30:18,280 --> 00:30:20,040
Speaker 3: to Plumb, and I know that she wants to be

663
00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 3: more of a distributor.

664
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 1: She might be okay just racking up assists in this

665
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:25,000
Speaker 1: revenge game.

666
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 3: And you know, I forgot to mention, but both these

667
00:30:27,840 --> 00:30:32,120
Speaker 3: teams have been struggling on defense around the around the rim,

668
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,959
Speaker 3: so both teams are allowing over a sixty three percent

669
00:30:35,800 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 3: field goal will make on shots inside five feet. So

670
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,480
Speaker 3: I think this is a spot where Handy can go

671
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:44,000
Speaker 3: ham as well. So I think Handy might be sneaky.

672
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 3: No one's going to be really attacking her over here.

673
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 3: Everyone's being a Plumb, So maybe doing a Handy points

674
00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 3: over and a Plum assists over and then send it,

675
00:30:53,600 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 3: Send it, back with whichever. You know, ACES Star, do

676
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 3: you think their point projection is probably too low? So

677
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 3: you know, Wilson probably going to be where it should be.

678
00:31:04,680 --> 00:31:07,680
Speaker 3: But you know, Juel, Lloyd, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, Uh,

679
00:31:07,800 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 3: They're They're all gonna erupt eventually.

680
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: And I think this is a great spot.

681
00:31:12,720 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 3: So I think taking an ACES player to go over

682
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 3: their points prop would also be sneak here as well.

683
00:31:18,520 --> 00:31:21,520
Speaker 2: I like that and I looked Unfortunately we do not

684
00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 2: have the player props up yet, so we can't build

685
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 2: it exactly. But maybe Sean and I can message at

686
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 2: some point when those come up tomorrow and we'll get

687
00:31:28,320 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 2: one in those you have a little bit more time

688
00:31:30,280 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 2: on those, hopefully, I will say Dano was was shooting

689
00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:36,280
Speaker 2: some intel my way that this is gonna be you know,

690
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 2: it's revenge game on all sides. But Asia Wilson, it's

691
00:31:40,680 --> 00:31:42,320
Speaker 2: like the most basic. You can build one of the

692
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,720
Speaker 2: most basic same game parlays of your life tomorrow and

693
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 2: it might actually be a decent look if you focus

694
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 2: on plumb in Asia who Dano said it gave the

695
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 2: Dano stamp approval of getting like, build the most basic.

696
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: This would be good for account health, right, Just the.

697
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,240
Speaker 2: Same game parlay with plumb points Asia, p R A

698
00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: and then over and you'll look good for like a

699
00:32:01,400 --> 00:32:04,959
Speaker 2: week at least. So yeah, we'll finalize that and we'll

700
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 2: post that at some point. But I really like that script.

701
00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:09,800
Speaker 2: So let's kind of do a little recap here of

702
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:13,000
Speaker 2: this awesome Friday slate. So, John, this is where let's

703
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 2: let's we'll lock in here, what are your official best

704
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 2: bets from the Friday slate and we can we'll say

705
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,040
Speaker 2: him again at the end so that people know that's

706
00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:22,560
Speaker 2: right at the very end. But let's let's do it

707
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:24,200
Speaker 2: here as well as we recap the day.

708
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the sparks aces over one sixty four and

709
00:32:27,800 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 3: a half one sixty five and a half. Again, I'm

710
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:33,960
Speaker 3: projecting it around one sixty nine, so anything let's say

711
00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 3: one sixty seven and a half or lower. I like

712
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 3: the over there. And then Mercury, they're plus three and

713
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 3: a half right now. The FISA colliers questionable. So this

714
00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 3: line might be bouncing around all day tomorrow, but I

715
00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 3: think wherever it is at any point in time, the

716
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 3: mercury probably offering value. So just know that this could

717
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 3: be anywhere from you know, Mercury plus five to a

718
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 3: pick them based on where Color is on her questionable status.

719
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,720
Speaker 2: I love that. So my official best bets I'm gonna do.

720
00:33:04,960 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 2: I am going to do Washington plus nine. I may

721
00:33:07,600 --> 00:33:11,040
Speaker 2: grab that again. This could also have injury news. We

722
00:33:11,040 --> 00:33:12,920
Speaker 2: don't even know the report for New York yet, so

723
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 2: we could be getting questionables, we could be getting rest spots,

724
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 2: we could get just get fully out. But I like

725
00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 2: that plus nine as is right now. I'm also going

726
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 2: to sprinkle the Watts special Andrew O'Connor wats our buddy.

727
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 2: The Washington first half New York Liberty full game the

728
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 2: Mystics already did it to the Aces this season. Is

729
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 2: just a spunky Washington team. They really they come out

730
00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 2: pretty decently.

731
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 4: I think.

732
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 2: Again, brutal schedule spot for Liberty that first half. I

733
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 2: think they're gonna have a little bit of tired legs.

734
00:33:41,320 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 2: But then again, these the good teams in basketball do

735
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: win more often than that. So I like that kind

736
00:33:46,920 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 2: of you know, inverse correlated first game, first half, full

737
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 2: game parlay.

738
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 4: That's that's plus six fifty, I believe when I was looking.

739
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,600
Speaker 2: So I'm interested by that, And then I'm gonna i

740
00:33:57,640 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 2: am going to be going with the basic. I'm gonna

741
00:33:59,160 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 2: go with plumb points, I'm gonna play the bass, I'm

742
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 2: gonna play the thirty plus. This is based on unless

743
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:07,600
Speaker 2: they juice it to high Heavens tomorrow like like if like,

744
00:34:07,600 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 2: like Sean said, if there's value, I do think she

745
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 2: is a player who really does like go in on

746
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 2: moments like this and and there's a little usage crazy.

747
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:18,719
Speaker 2: He also has Rakia out which has been pretty big

748
00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:21,920
Speaker 2: for her usage this season. So if they if they

749
00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 2: post a crazy number, we're not going to do it.

750
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 2: But I think I am probably gonna be looking that

751
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 2: way to play separate from the same game parlay, but

752
00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 2: also as a best bet. Sean, let's let's I want

753
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 2: to also talk process with you because we have you

754
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 2: on here, you know, to walk through this slate, but

755
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 2: also to kind of get a feel for, you know,

756
00:34:39,960 --> 00:34:42,359
Speaker 2: what is going into these projections that are are going

757
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,440
Speaker 2: in the app now, and just kind of your process

758
00:34:44,480 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: in general when you we approach the w A. So

759
00:34:47,840 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 2: maybe we talked first about your your broader more you know,

760
00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:53,080
Speaker 2: w n B a centric focus, and then we can

761
00:34:53,080 --> 00:34:55,160
Speaker 2: bring it down more specifically to the app. So when

762
00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:58,440
Speaker 2: you start with your process in general for forbetting the w.

763
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:02,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, so it's I mean it's pretty straightforward. I'm essentially

764
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 3: coming up with what I think the spread and total

765
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:07,680
Speaker 3: should be. And again it's a lot of the things

766
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,080
Speaker 3: I've already talked about. When we kind of walk through

767
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:13,360
Speaker 3: the five games, is you know, I look at their

768
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:20,160
Speaker 3: offensive defensive efficiency ratings, but also their schedule, and I'm

769
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:24,319
Speaker 3: actually looking at I make a really intense strength of

770
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:27,239
Speaker 3: schedule where I'm factory in teams that are playing the

771
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:31,319
Speaker 3: fever without Kaitlin Clark. So it's it's the strength of

772
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 3: the team at the time they played them, if that

773
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 3: makes sense. So I'm kind of just going back in

774
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 3: time and seeing what would be the most efficient power

775
00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:42,879
Speaker 3: rating so far for these teams, and then once we're

776
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,120
Speaker 3: later in the season, I look at more recent games.

777
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,800
Speaker 3: But I'm really just trying to fine tune where these

778
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 3: you know, prices should be. And then as we're seeing,

779
00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 3: you know, this week, we're going to see injuries pop up,

780
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,680
Speaker 3: I think having a good idea of how much each

781
00:35:58,719 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 3: player is worth for the spread and for the total.

782
00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:04,040
Speaker 3: You know, we talked about Kaylen Clark, how she's worth

783
00:36:04,080 --> 00:36:06,400
Speaker 3: like five points, on the spread. Most of that's on

784
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:09,680
Speaker 3: the total, you know, for the over, So when she's out,

785
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 3: you know, I'm going to lower their total about four points.

786
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 3: There might be some players where it's kind of the

787
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:18,040
Speaker 3: inverse where if them being ruled out, it's actually gonna

788
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:22,479
Speaker 3: you know, lower the total or increase the total. So yeah,

789
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 3: so I'm just looking at every single game saying this

790
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 3: is what I think the spread and total should be

791
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 3: based on, you know, their team ratings, schedule, and player ratings.

792
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:36,759
Speaker 3: So it's about as fine as you can get. And

793
00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 3: I try not to get attached. I try not to

794
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,640
Speaker 3: like fall in love with teams or hate teams. You know,

795
00:36:41,680 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 3: the Wings have been killing me so far, but I

796
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 3: start fresh and I act like I have zero bets

797
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 3: on them so far, and I just I try to

798
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:54,439
Speaker 3: have like a pure lens looking forward, and I try

799
00:36:54,480 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 3: not to get caught up and you know, things that

800
00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:01,240
Speaker 3: happen in the past, because the WNBA, like it's so fickle,

801
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 3: Like there's so many times you think you have a

802
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 3: team read and then it changes, so you just got

803
00:37:06,640 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 3: to be on top of it. And also when it

804
00:37:09,560 --> 00:37:14,319
Speaker 3: comes to making these spread and total projections, we've been

805
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 3: talking about.

806
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:15,640
Speaker 1: It offline a lot.

807
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:19,040
Speaker 3: It's a lot of it is timing the market itself,

808
00:37:19,680 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 3: because you can have these lines move four or five

809
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 3: points on no news, just action. So if there's been

810
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 3: some times where I mentioned, like the Storm Dream game,

811
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:34,799
Speaker 3: I'm perfectly in line with the spread and total. But

812
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 3: if the spread or total move for any reason tomorrow

813
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 3: by a few points, you know, then I'll come in

814
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:44,319
Speaker 3: on whatever side I'm seeing value on. So it's one

815
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,080
Speaker 3: of those things where I really am at the end

816
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 3: of the day betting on numbers. But I also do

817
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:54,279
Speaker 3: like to look at matchups and matchup specific things. I

818
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:57,360
Speaker 3: kind of look at what the team's goal is on

819
00:37:57,480 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 3: offense and defense, and you know, stack that against each other.

820
00:38:01,640 --> 00:38:04,120
Speaker 3: Similar when I was talking about the Mystics and Liberty,

821
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 3: how the Mystics love getting of the free throw line

822
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:09,839
Speaker 3: and the Liberty prevent teams from getting the three throw line.

823
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: So that's that's a tough spot for them.

824
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,360
Speaker 3: So I look at little things like that, But at

825
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:15,880
Speaker 3: the end of the day, I'm just trying to come

826
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 3: up with the most accurate and spread and total projection possible.

827
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, and those are in the app. You'll see them,

828
00:38:21,560 --> 00:38:24,000
Speaker 2: and they'll have like the letter grade for you know,

829
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,200
Speaker 2: and and again that's going to just with the spread

830
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,280
Speaker 2: as it goes. You're gonna you have your step point

831
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,760
Speaker 2: and then if it moves off of news, you're gonna adjust.

832
00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 2: But if it just moves off of the market, that's

833
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:35,319
Speaker 2: going to either you know, start to show value or

834
00:38:35,640 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 2: you know, the market's moving towards you. And what used

835
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,320
Speaker 2: to be an A minus is now a C plus.

836
00:38:39,360 --> 00:38:41,799
Speaker 2: So definitely definitely be in the app checking those out.

837
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,799
Speaker 2: I know I have been super useful tool, and we've

838
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 2: got the player prop stuff in.

839
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:46,239
Speaker 4: There as well.

840
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 2: But when you talk about a tiny bit more, I

841
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:50,239
Speaker 2: mean you talked about the schedule waiting, so maybe we

842
00:38:50,560 --> 00:38:53,919
Speaker 2: put those two use You've got a couple of futures here.

843
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:56,840
Speaker 2: I like both of them. So when you talk to

844
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 2: me about a couple of futures as you're looking at

845
00:38:58,800 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 2: your schedule, adjustice stuff, a pair of wind totals here,

846
00:39:03,040 --> 00:39:04,400
Speaker 2: what is kind of jumping out to you as a

847
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 2: couple of teams that maybe the market's a little too

848
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 2: high on right now and you think in the long

849
00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 2: run you want to be on the other side of it.

850
00:39:10,880 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I have the rest of season schedule already

851
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 3: in my model, so I have, you know, all the

852
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 3: projected spreads, totals, and money lines for the rest of

853
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,960
Speaker 3: the season, so I can actually get updated wind total projections.

854
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,879
Speaker 3: So I have two one over and one under for us,

855
00:39:27,440 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 3: but the first one is the Sun under nine.

856
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: And a half wins. You can get a plus one

857
00:39:32,120 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 1: oh two. This is kind of like the Kelsey Plumb

858
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:35,200
Speaker 1: over points.

859
00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 3: It's like I typically I typically try to stay away

860
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:43,400
Speaker 3: from obvious things like this because like, obviously the market

861
00:39:43,440 --> 00:39:46,279
Speaker 3: knows the Sun suck. But I'm still showing value here.

862
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 3: I'm projecting I'm closer to seven and a half wins.

863
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,399
Speaker 3: They're they're oh and five, right, we knew where they're

864
00:39:52,400 --> 00:39:54,240
Speaker 3: going to be bad. They are bad.

865
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:57,319
Speaker 1: They're oh to five and their win total is still

866
00:39:57,400 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 1: nine and a half. So I don't know what to

867
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 1: tell you. I would take be under here.

868
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:05,760
Speaker 3: And Marina Maybury, you know, she might be out Tomorrow's

869
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 3: she demanded a trade before the season started that they

870
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 3: rejected it. She might be gone at some point if

871
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 3: they lose her. You know, that's that's a big loss,

872
00:40:15,600 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 3: you know, Tina Charles, this is the later stage of

873
00:40:19,400 --> 00:40:21,440
Speaker 3: her career. I don't know if she can maintain the

874
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,760
Speaker 3: whole season and be the key player for a team.

875
00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:28,600
Speaker 3: So they have a lot of problems, and more importantly,

876
00:40:28,640 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 3: they have by far the toughest schedule the rest of

877
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 3: the season, and part of that is they can't face themselves.

878
00:40:35,080 --> 00:40:36,560
Speaker 3: You know, the more times you see the sun on

879
00:40:36,560 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 3: the schedule, the better. They don't have that luxury. They

880
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 3: don't get to play play themselves.

881
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 1: So that's rough. And I think now is just the

882
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 1: perfect time to take them. Even though they're own to five.

883
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,239
Speaker 3: They have eight of the next twelve games on the road,

884
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 3: and then they have a nice six game homestand in July.

885
00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 3: So I just think this this would be a good

886
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 3: time to take them. I'd be shocked if they win

887
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 3: more than a few games, you know, the next fifteen

888
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 3: or so games here. So again I'm projecting this culture

889
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 3: of seven and a half. This is a team that's tanking.

890
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:09,200
Speaker 3: They might get even worse if you could believe it.

891
00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 3: So now it would be the time to kind of

892
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,160
Speaker 3: lock in under nine and a half. In my opinion, Yeah,

893
00:41:13,200 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 3: I love this one.

894
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:17,400
Speaker 2: This was you know, I talked preseason with Calvin we's

895
00:41:17,400 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 2: all my friend about that about this, about how it

896
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 2: seems like, you know, I think the market is certainly

897
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 2: stronger than it has been the past. Bay, do you

898
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,400
Speaker 2: think there's still little spots where they kind of just translate,

899
00:41:28,440 --> 00:41:30,799
Speaker 2: they kind of Transmographis that the right where they kind

900
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:32,759
Speaker 2: of put the image of the men's sport on the

901
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 2: women's sport and say this is kind of the you know,

902
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:37,719
Speaker 2: spread that we're going to use, like these are the tails.

903
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 2: And in the NBA, oftentimes it's good to bet you know,

904
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 2: the really high team total regular season win total thunders

905
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,360
Speaker 2: and the inverse you bet over on all the low teams.

906
00:41:50,040 --> 00:41:52,480
Speaker 2: In the WNBA, that doesn't seem to be as much

907
00:41:52,560 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 2: the case. It seems like they're maybe kind of underbaking that.

908
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,040
Speaker 2: Like we had the Valkyries and Son I believe both

909
00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 2: open up at fifteen and a half.

910
00:41:58,440 --> 00:41:59,840
Speaker 4: For the regular season win totals.

911
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,319
Speaker 2: The Sun aren't getting there the Valkyries, even though I'm

912
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,400
Speaker 2: with you and being intrigued, I don't think they're getting

913
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,360
Speaker 2: up that high. You even see it at the college

914
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 2: level where you'll see LSU favored by thirty seven and

915
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 2: a half. It seems like this comically large number. Actually

916
00:42:13,280 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: the values on forty one and a half. It's almost

917
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 2: like the spread differential doesn't translate perfectly, and the model

918
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,759
Speaker 2: or the you know, the distribution model they're using for

919
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:26,799
Speaker 2: you know, men's college basketball or the NBA isn't quite

920
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 2: perfectly attuned to the women's side. That's just something I

921
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 2: feel like I have noticed that, like the Liberty team

922
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 2: total over I like this year, or their win total,

923
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:37,760
Speaker 2: So it seems like there's actually value at the extremes

924
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:39,960
Speaker 2: at least where this at this point in time, with

925
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 2: where the league is. So I'm definitely with you on

926
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,040
Speaker 2: the sun Under and you know I'm with you on

927
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 2: this next one. And this is the team that I

928
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 2: just can't keep falling help the falling for. I've been

929
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 2: super impressed with them, even from just an on court stuff.

930
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 2: You got plenty of x's and o's here of data,

931
00:42:54,719 --> 00:42:56,640
Speaker 2: but I've been really impressed with this team. So what's

932
00:42:56,680 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 2: your second team, the team you're going over for the

933
00:42:58,560 --> 00:42:59,240
Speaker 2: rest of this season.

934
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:02,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so go with the dream over twenty three and

935
00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 3: a half wins at plus one O eight. We already

936
00:43:06,600 --> 00:43:08,920
Speaker 3: have four wins in the bag, so you can't take

937
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:12,720
Speaker 3: those away from them. But yeah, I'm projecting this closer

938
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:15,839
Speaker 3: twenty five and a half. I just I love what

939
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 3: I've seen from them, and you know, Brittan Griner is probable,

940
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:22,560
Speaker 3: so she's back, Jordan Canada will be back.

941
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:23,000
Speaker 1: At some point.

942
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 3: This is a really complete team, so I think they

943
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:30,200
Speaker 3: could survive an injury or two along the way. And

944
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:34,479
Speaker 3: they faced the fever June tenth. I think that's right

945
00:43:34,480 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 3: around Caitlin Clark might return, but I think she's going

946
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:42,399
Speaker 3: to be back the next game. So again, they only

947
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 3: face the fever twice the rest of the season, and

948
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 3: one time they might not even have to face Kit

949
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,200
Speaker 3: and Clark. And they close the season with a nice

950
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,960
Speaker 3: three out of five games against the Sun, who might

951
00:43:54,000 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 3: be in full on take mode at that time. So

952
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 3: if you look at their the last five games in

953
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 3: the season, it's three against the Sun and two against

954
00:44:02,080 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 3: the Sparks. So if we need a couple wins that

955
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 3: by that time of the year, we might get it.

956
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 3: But yeah, this is just one of those things. I'm

957
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 3: just projecting them a couple wins higher, just using their

958
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 3: current you know, power rating, and I think it was

959
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 3: a team. The more they play together, the better they're.

960
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 2: Going to get.

961
00:44:20,800 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 3: I do like the Jones grinder Combo and Ryan Howard's

962
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 3: always solid, like just a team that doesn't have any holes,

963
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,680
Speaker 3: and you have so many you have a few elite

964
00:44:31,680 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 3: teams and then bottom feeder teams. They're probably closer to

965
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:38,479
Speaker 3: the elite teams and people realize they're more a middle

966
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:39,960
Speaker 3: of the pack. But I think they have a very

967
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 3: high floor in this market. And again, like I said,

968
00:44:43,040 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 3: they already have four wins, so I love the value

969
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 3: we're getting here on over twenty three and a half,

970
00:44:48,800 --> 00:44:50,439
Speaker 3: especially at plus one to eight right now.

971
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:52,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, I absolutely love this.

972
00:44:52,440 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 2: They're looking good and they haven't had durn Kando, I

973
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 2: think is going to be really good at setting the

974
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:00,800
Speaker 2: table in this Mesco offense. I'm really high on Atlanta

975
00:45:00,840 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 2: in general. I think that there's I think they could

976
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:06,280
Speaker 2: be a pretty pesky out even come postseason. I really

977
00:45:06,320 --> 00:45:08,680
Speaker 2: am am very intrigued by Atlanta. So I'm definitely with

978
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,600
Speaker 2: you on this. This win total of there, Sean, this

979
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 2: was a blast. This was really fun. We got to

980
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:15,319
Speaker 2: go game by game through the sleep, we got to

981
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 2: talk through you know, some process, We've got some futures

982
00:45:17,640 --> 00:45:20,320
Speaker 2: in there. Let's just do a very quick recap. Let's

983
00:45:20,600 --> 00:45:23,160
Speaker 2: give have you give all of your bets futures included.

984
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 2: I'll give my best bets for Friday's slate, and then

985
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 2: we'll then we'll get out of here, all right.

986
00:45:28,040 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 3: So yeah, I'm gonna go with the Mercury plus three

987
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 3: and a half or wherever it is tomorrow. The Sparks

988
00:45:34,560 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 3: ace is over one sixty four and a half one

989
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:40,759
Speaker 3: sixty five. Any of those numbers are fine by me

990
00:45:41,760 --> 00:45:45,239
Speaker 3: for season long win totals. Let's lock in the Sun

991
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:47,359
Speaker 3: under nine and a half right now at plus one

992
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 3: hint two. And let's also lock in Atlanta Dream over

993
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,959
Speaker 3: twenty three and a half wins at plus one o eight.

994
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 4: I love it.

995
00:45:55,080 --> 00:45:58,200
Speaker 2: My best bets for Friday, I've got the Mystics plus nine.

996
00:45:58,719 --> 00:46:01,360
Speaker 2: We sprinkle in that game, the Mystics first half, New

997
00:46:01,440 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 2: York Liberty full game money line, and then I'm going

998
00:46:04,960 --> 00:46:07,120
Speaker 2: to play some Kelsea blump points. We don't have those out,

999
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 2: so unless they go crazy with it, we're gonna be

1000
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:11,359
Speaker 2: on some Kelsey plump points. And then the ladder there

1001
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:14,560
Speaker 2: as well. That thirty plus number is really intriguing to me.

1002
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:16,600
Speaker 2: If we get a decent number on it, hopefully they

1003
00:46:16,600 --> 00:46:18,360
Speaker 2: at least let us have a little fun on Friday.

1004
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:21,480
Speaker 2: So Sean, thanks so much for coming on. If anyone's

1005
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:23,239
Speaker 2: looking to tail some of those bets that we talked

1006
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 2: about today, we'll have those quick slip links into the

1007
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:31,319
Speaker 2: episode description. Obviously, download the app, get those projections. Really

1008
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:33,120
Speaker 2: killer stuff from Sean, Really cool to have them on

1009
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 2: talking through that. I thanks to David Pain on audio,

1010
00:46:36,719 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 2: Get for Gooled and the squad over there on the

1011
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:42,760
Speaker 2: YouTube side, And that is it for this episode.

1012
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:43,919
Speaker 4: Let's get us.

1013
00:46:52,200 --> 00:46:56,719
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1014
00:46:56,719 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1015
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 2: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred Gambler