Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Jason Kelly. We're right here every day bringing you the
Speaker 1: latest news from the world's of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,
Speaker 1: all harnessing the power of Business Week reporters and editors,
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Speaker 1: twenty seven hundred journalists and analysts more than a hundred
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Speaker 1: Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, bl Bloomberg dot com. You can
Speaker 1: also listen to our radio show at two pm Eastern
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio every weekday, or watch us on YouTube
Speaker 1: by searching Bloomberg Global News. Well, another week of so
Speaker 1: many headlines related to the virus. It is such a
Speaker 1: pleasure as always to catch up with Dr Ian les Bader,
Speaker 1: our soothsayer, our truth teller, our guy who really helps
Speaker 1: us understand where we're going and where we are, Clinical
Speaker 1: Associate Professor of Medicine at n y us Lango Medical Center.
Speaker 1: He joins us on the phone from New York City. Ian,
Speaker 1: how are you hi? H Happy Friday, hugsum. I hope
Speaker 1: everyone is doing well. We are so far thriving, but
Speaker 1: seeing lots of patients and UH and seeing some longhaulers
Speaker 1: and some COVID patients as well, So UH, we are
Speaker 1: not out of the woods. Just so let's talk about that.
Speaker 1: I mean, what is the reality check for this area
Speaker 1: that we all live in, specifically the New York City
Speaker 1: area I'm talking about, Like, where are we right now?
Speaker 1: We see hot spots reported, but you you are quite
Speaker 1: literally in on the front lines. Tell me more about
Speaker 1: what you're seeing. So you know, we're definitely seeing UH
Speaker 1: in increase in cases. And I think whenever you see
Speaker 1: hot spots, you know, the danger is that extending into
Speaker 1: other areas of the community. We're certainly seeing in the
Speaker 1: Midwest as well, not just in New York City some
Speaker 1: hot spots, but throughout the country. So I think until
Speaker 1: we are all able to get a prevented amount of
Speaker 1: US and UH, or until monoclonal antibody and fusions are
Speaker 1: widely available, we really have to resort to the old
Speaker 1: traditional UH infectious disease controls of you know, mass scoring,
Speaker 1: even though we know that's not acent effective and social distancing.
Speaker 1: And last week we talked about some in the in
Speaker 1: the more religious community, and it is important that everyone follow,
Speaker 1: you know, follow the guidelines. There is no uh problem,
Speaker 1: there's no um conflict between religion and spirituality and good
Speaker 1: good health and science or religions really emphasize healthy behavior
Speaker 1: and and uh this is just part of that for
Speaker 1: the time being. So there should be no conflict with
Speaker 1: being observant in in the way you feel as appropriate
Speaker 1: and also doing um good behavior for the community. Right.
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like that's been one and theme
Speaker 1: um in that we've talked about. You know, it's it's
Speaker 1: the whole virus is all about a sense of community.
Speaker 1: It's protecting others. I mean, you want to protect yourself,
Speaker 1: of course, but you really have to think about that's
Speaker 1: what mask wearing is ultimately about. When you look at
Speaker 1: what's going on around the country. I think I was
Speaker 1: kind of thrown when I was watching some some programs,
Speaker 1: some news programs, and they were showing a map of
Speaker 1: the country and showing where we're seeing increases in cases,
Speaker 1: and it was almost blanketed across the country. So is
Speaker 1: this kind of the second wave that we've all been
Speaker 1: talking about. Is this the beginning of it? Yes? I
Speaker 1: think that is the case. You know, we certainly saw
Speaker 1: a drop in the number of cases. And really around
Speaker 1: the world we're seeing, you know, the second waves. And unfortunately,
Speaker 1: if you look at even back to nine eighteen the
Speaker 1: Spanish flu, you know, these viral infections do come in waves,
Speaker 1: they do mutate a bit. UH. People do develop some
Speaker 1: slowly but surely her herd immunity. UH. And again, the
Speaker 1: idea is to kind of flatten the curve. You know,
Speaker 1: no one ever said we're going to completely stop cases.
Speaker 1: But if you're able to decrease hospital surging by wearing
Speaker 1: mouks and um, you know, using prudent behavior, that will
Speaker 1: kind of protect the health care systems so that people
Speaker 1: who need ventilators or people who are sicker can be
Speaker 1: admitted and there's you know, more reserve in the system.
Speaker 1: So I think we are seeing the second wave. We're
Speaker 1: seeing it really around the world. It's this has happened
Speaker 1: in prior pandemics UM, and I think we have to continue,
Speaker 1: certainly to be prudent. So Ian, I have a feeling
Speaker 1: that you've been getting a lot of phone calls and
Speaker 1: text and emails from friends, family, patients about everything we've
Speaker 1: seen over the last week or so, especially with the
Speaker 1: treatment of the president around various drugs. We count on
Speaker 1: you to separate the signal from the noise. What do
Speaker 1: we need to know about what we've learned, especially in
Speaker 1: terms of therapeutics over the last few days. So not
Speaker 1: everyone gets the same treatment as as the president, but
Speaker 1: I think he had a very aggressive regiment and I
Speaker 1: think actually a very smart regiment. Um it's certainly something
Speaker 1: that it would be great to offer many patients. And
Speaker 1: really all of these medications work in different ways, just
Speaker 1: like we do HIV cocktails are hepathetis sea cocktails, where
Speaker 1: we have several medications that work slightly differently for the viruses.
Speaker 1: In combination, they can be highly effective. And I think,
Speaker 1: you know, the President is a good example. You know,
Speaker 1: he was in a high risk group being male, older, overweight,
Speaker 1: and there are other risk factors that other people have
Speaker 1: high blood pressure, diabetes, lung disease, UM, kidney disease, you
Speaker 1: know that we all know about. And I think that's
Speaker 1: also why our death rate or or a case fatality
Speaker 1: rate is a little higher here. You know, we say
Speaker 1: like why is an America not doing so well? Part
Speaker 1: of it is our full you know, our population tends
Speaker 1: to be overweight, more sedentary, couch potatoes. I don't want
Speaker 1: to generalize, but we we definitely have You're not wrong,
Speaker 1: and I think that's a fair I think that's a
Speaker 1: fair assessment. We talk about data. I think the data
Speaker 1: would bear you right. Exactly. We have almost a thirty
Speaker 1: percent obesity rate, and quite frankly, that's a high risk
Speaker 1: with COVID patients, and I think that is why we
Speaker 1: have a higher case fatality rate. I don't think it
Speaker 1: has anything to do with management, which is kind of standardized.
Speaker 1: But in any case, he got this cocktail of monoclonal
Speaker 1: Lanta Buddies by Regeneron and Lily is working on this regeneration,
Speaker 1: by the way, is headed by a colleague classmate, George
Speaker 1: Ancopolis from Columbia Medical School. I'm glad he made the
Speaker 1: distinction that, you know, we can't all just like copped
Speaker 1: her over to Walter Reed and be like, give me everything,
Speaker 1: give me what you got, um, But how do we
Speaker 1: think about it? So, for one, it does show you
Speaker 1: that in the White House, even though people are tested
Speaker 1: every day, because there's an incubation period, you can be
Speaker 1: infected and not recover virus from the naves of pharynx
Speaker 1: or from saliva. That this is not a hundred percent
Speaker 1: full proof approach testing people every day, whether it's back
Speaker 1: to school, and you know, we do need to accept
Speaker 1: that that it is imperfect, no matter how careful you
Speaker 1: can be. And obviously at the White House they're very
Speaker 1: meticulous and in a close proximity people working together. Really
Speaker 1: all you need is one person, uh where that test
Speaker 1: doesn't catch it until they are more more vi remaic,
Speaker 1: where there's more virus there. So, um, you know, he
Speaker 1: became symptomatic and really got a cocktail and unproven, but
Speaker 1: I think a very intelligent, smart cocktail um with not
Speaker 1: all of those drugs yet FDA approved. You know, one
Speaker 1: was room desiviere, which is approved for as an anti viral,
Speaker 1: and we do give those to pay in the hospital.
Speaker 1: Decks in methasone, which typically is given. You don't want
Speaker 1: to give that too early because it is a mildest
Speaker 1: as a steroid in immuno suppressant um, but we do
Speaker 1: give it to people who are getting more inflammation. So
Speaker 1: I suspect they were a little concerned about him with
Speaker 1: blood oxygen or perhaps his X ray was abnormal. I
Speaker 1: don't know. That, but that definitely decreases inflammation and probably
Speaker 1: one of the key drugs which is yet to be
Speaker 1: approved UH monoclonal antibodies and regeneration is is Um, one
Speaker 1: of a couple of companies working on this and at
Speaker 1: least with the regenera on Um system headed by one
Speaker 1: of our Columbia P and S alumni. Just to put
Speaker 1: in a plug um, these are mice that have a
Speaker 1: humanized immune system, and monoclonal antibodies are developed to the
Speaker 1: spike protein, which is the common protein. So even though
Speaker 1: the virus may mutate, that spike that's typical on the
Speaker 1: out or shell of the of the virus has has
Speaker 1: monoclonal antibodies and that can dramatically reduce, uh, the amount
Speaker 1: of virus in the bloodstream and really help the body's
Speaker 1: own you know, by time for the virus to be
Speaker 1: cleared in in your own UH immune system clear it.
Speaker 1: So that I think has great potential. You know. The
Speaker 1: problem of course is it's given intravenously, so you can't
Speaker 1: just pop up right right and and it is yet
Speaker 1: to be approved, but I think that certainly will be
Speaker 1: a big addition to the armamentarium. And like many other
Speaker 1: viruses and drugs. Having that combination therapy and anti viral
Speaker 1: to reduce viral replication antibodies immediately, so you don't have
Speaker 1: to wait for your body to develop antibuddies. You're given
Speaker 1: these pasid antibodies which soak up the virus and then
Speaker 1: perhaps decks and methodsone and some patients, So you know,
Speaker 1: this makes sense. I think we're making progress on on
Speaker 1: on treatments and we need to do that until al
Speaker 1: of vaccine arrived. Switch again, we'll probably be very helpful.
Speaker 1: It may not work in everyone, but again, as long
Speaker 1: as we have a sixty effectiveness and as long as
Speaker 1: we're able to get to more of a herd immunity um,
Speaker 1: that should make a big difference. But that's not until spring,
Speaker 1: right exactly. And as our reporter are Bob Lingreth, who's
Speaker 1: got the cover story of the magazine and he's done
Speaker 1: a lot of reporting on Giliad and Rambesca. Here he said,
Speaker 1: you know, Generation only has about fifty doses available, and
Speaker 1: he says, we've got fifty cases of the virus popping
Speaker 1: up every day, so the numbers are not in our
Speaker 1: favor for even some of the treatments. Like that. So
Speaker 1: it's it's it's tricky and just got about thirty seconds left. Yep,
Speaker 1: you know we're making progress. I think they're going to
Speaker 1: ramp up. That's why we have to do what we
Speaker 1: can do while further therapeutics and vaccines are being developed,
Speaker 1: which is um acting smart and we know what to do,
Speaker 1: and social distancing absolutely got it. This is Bloomberg Business
Speaker 1: Week with Carol Masser and Jason Kelly on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: Can I just say, it's a story, it's a map,
Speaker 1: it's a podcast. That's how important this story is. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it is such incredible work that this guy has been
Speaker 1: doing throughout the course of the pandemic. Although even before
Speaker 1: I feel like he shifted effortlessly from telling us everything
Speaker 1: we needed to know about the trade war to everything
Speaker 1: we needed to know about the economic impact of the pandemic,
Speaker 1: especially when it comes to the embodiment of the K
Speaker 1: shaped recovery. In a lot of ways, Carol, you know
Speaker 1: like he is helping us understand this. I think through
Speaker 1: the stories of real people, and this story is no
Speaker 1: exception to talk about Sean Donn and he has senior
Speaker 1: Trade and globalization reporter for Bloomberg he joins us on
Speaker 1: the phone from Maryland. But a lot of this is
Speaker 1: based on some incredible reporting Sean you did in Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Tell us about what you've found, because this is part
Speaker 1: of a series of stories that really capture what's going
Speaker 1: on in America. Thanks Jason, You guys are much too kind.
Speaker 1: I should just let you guys talk about this story. No, no, no, no,
Speaker 1: we're just gonna talk about how great you are. You
Speaker 1: have to tell us about the actual don't go on. Look.
Speaker 1: I think one of the things we've we've been struggling
Speaker 1: to get our head heads around as as people in
Speaker 1: America right now, is this idea of different letter shaped recoveries.
Speaker 1: What does a V shape recovery mean? What does a
Speaker 1: K shaped recovery mean? We're gonna see a W Nike swish?
Speaker 1: What what are we gonna say? And what's clear is
Speaker 1: that we're seeing a recovery that is being felt differently
Speaker 1: depending on where you are on the income ladder, where
Speaker 1: you are in terms of home ownership, where you are
Speaker 1: in terms of your ability to work from home, whether
Speaker 1: you're part of what I've started calling bread baking America.
Speaker 1: You know, that's those of us who are who are
Speaker 1: out there learning how to how to bake sour dough
Speaker 1: and and and have really bought a lot of flour
Speaker 1: in the last six months. Or Breadline America, which is
Speaker 1: a much sadder place, which is those people who are
Speaker 1: out there who are struggling with housing, security and food
Speaker 1: and security UH as a result of having lost their
Speaker 1: their jobs as a result of the pandemic and the
Speaker 1: economic collapse we've we've seen since then. One of the
Speaker 1: things I set out to look at was the question
Speaker 1: of housing, and I really was was my head was
Speaker 1: spinning on this one, and finally I settled on the
Speaker 1: idea of telling it through the story of two different houses. UM.
Speaker 1: And that really gets at the divide in the recovery
Speaker 1: right now. If you are a homeowner in a suburb
Speaker 1: of Cleveland called Lakewood, you are seeing demand for property
Speaker 1: sore right now. You're seeing property prices sore right now.
Speaker 1: And we talked to a newlywed couple who bought a
Speaker 1: house on del View Drive there UH and they ended
Speaker 1: up being one of half a dozen people who bid
Speaker 1: for this this this house within hours of it going online.
Speaker 1: And they have a very happy story to tell. Their
Speaker 1: two tech workers and they are are doing well in
Speaker 1: life right now there from home, and they've got this
Speaker 1: brand new home that they're that they're moving into on
Speaker 1: the other side of town. We went to the Mount
Speaker 1: Pleasant neighborhood and then I've been spending some time listening
Speaker 1: to proceedings in the Cleveland Housing Court, and in doing that,
Speaker 1: I ran across an eviction case involving a woman called
Speaker 1: Calais Gavings. Calais Gavings is a nursing assistant. She has
Speaker 1: rented a house UH in the Mount Pleasant neighborhood UH
Speaker 1: for nine hundred dollars a month, and at one point
Speaker 1: earlier this year she was laid off, she fell behind
Speaker 1: on the rent. When she was back at work, she
Speaker 1: just wasn't making as much as she used to, and
Speaker 1: so she ended up in the Cleveland Housing Court, caught
Speaker 1: up in an eviction crisis. And so these are today
Speaker 1: these two very different stories that you see at play
Speaker 1: in the housing market. But then you start scratching the
Speaker 1: surface of these things and you discovered that actually you
Speaker 1: can find really the legacy of the last crisis way
Speaker 1: back in two thousand and eight in the subprime and
Speaker 1: four closure crisis in the property records that involved Kellai
Speaker 1: Gaving's house, and and and also just in the diverging
Speaker 1: paths that you've had between homes and predominantly black neighborhoods
Speaker 1: in Cleveland and their values and those that you've seen
Speaker 1: and predominantly white neighborhoods. So it's a recovery that's unequal,
Speaker 1: but it's also building on the legacy of the last crisis.
Speaker 1: That's what's so troubling, Sean. And that's what you know,
Speaker 1: Like you say, whether it was the east side of
Speaker 1: town or the west side of town, west side being
Speaker 1: wealthy or east side not so much, where it's mostly
Speaker 1: black neighborhoods and a high percentage of rental properties, it
Speaker 1: was already a struggling area, right, and then you layer
Speaker 1: on the pandemic and it's just gotten you know, worse again.
Speaker 1: But it's also, as you said, it was already an
Speaker 1: area that wasn't able to completely catch its breath from
Speaker 1: the last crisis. And you know, when we talk about
Speaker 1: wealth creation, I think this is a part of it.
Speaker 1: Like there these groups of people are never given a
Speaker 1: chance to create any kind of real wealth in their lives.
Speaker 1: It is such a huge part of it. And it
Speaker 1: has to do with with with neighborhood stability in a
Speaker 1: lot of ways. I mean the house that kill a
Speaker 1: gatherings and she moved out at the end of September
Speaker 1: out of this house, but it's owned by UH, an
Speaker 1: anonymous LLCO limited liability company that's actually, if you kind
Speaker 1: of track it down, is a shell company owned by
Speaker 1: French investors who have flocked into Cleveland UH to buy
Speaker 1: up these cheap properties because they're searching for yield. UH.
Speaker 1: You know, the investor who owns that property bought it
Speaker 1: for sixty five thousand dollars a year ago. UH. They're
Speaker 1: collecting nine dollars a month in rent on it. That's
Speaker 1: a gross annual turn of like sixt It almost doesn't
Speaker 1: matter if the value of the house goes up, right.
Speaker 1: This is a cash flow play for those investors. And
Speaker 1: on the flip side, you have these these predominantly white
Speaker 1: suburbs where you have had pretty steady capital appreciation. This
Speaker 1: house that we looked at in the neighborhood of Lakewood
Speaker 1: had actually more than doubled in value in the last
Speaker 1: eight or nine years. And Seawan, I feel like, you know,
Speaker 1: one of the most powerful pieces of your reporting is
Speaker 1: that you're telling stories that I am sure people in
Speaker 1: a number of different cities, countless cities across America, and
Speaker 1: you've been to some of them. You certainly talked to people,
Speaker 1: and a lot of them this could be their city too.
Speaker 1: This is not a Cleveland problem. Oh look, absolutely, it's
Speaker 1: a problem right here in Washington, d C. I'm out
Speaker 1: in the predominantly white suburbs of Washington, d C. I
Speaker 1: have a very different economic reality from people who are
Speaker 1: in predominantly black neighborhoods on the other side of the
Speaker 1: Anacostia River. It's the same thing in New York. It's
Speaker 1: the same thing in you know out west there is
Speaker 1: There isn't almost no American city where this kind of
Speaker 1: unequal recovery isn't the story? Yeah, well, can I just
Speaker 1: I know we've got were at that time. We could
Speaker 1: talk a lot more about this, and I highly recommend
Speaker 1: I'll put it out on Twitter. I may have already,
Speaker 1: but I'll do it again because I think it's a
Speaker 1: must read. But is there any hope that things change?
Speaker 1: Sean and your reporting? We just have about seconds here. Yeah. No,
Speaker 1: I think one of the really interesting things is what
Speaker 1: do you do about something like this. And part of
Speaker 1: the problem here is that the policy response that's aimed
Speaker 1: at the broader economy is actually helping accelerate this, right.
Speaker 1: I mean, we know that the said pouring money into
Speaker 1: into into markets, lowering interest rates, that lowers mortgage rates,
Speaker 1: that helps homeowners and so on. There needs to be
Speaker 1: some kind of targeting for someone like to Lake Athings
Speaker 1: that say that nine hundred dollars a month needs to
Speaker 1: go into building equity rather than simply going to rent.
Speaker 1: That is helping an offshore investor who has no interest
Speaker 1: in that neighborhood beyond cash flow and return. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's really I mean, the whole the wealth gap is
Speaker 1: so apparent. Uh, and that's a big part of it.
Speaker 1: All right, Sean Donn And thank you really really appreciate it. Uh,
Speaker 1: you're reporting it is must read as always, So check
Speaker 1: out this story. It's in the new double issue Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week magazine, available in newsstands and Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 1: It's also featured in the Stephonomics podcast with our colleague
Speaker 1: Stephanie Flanders, So get that where you get your podcast.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Jason
Speaker 1: Kelly on Bloomberg Radio. All right, so we talked about
Speaker 1: her yesterday. She is the subject of a story in
Speaker 1: the magazine which reveals how she is the economist that's
Speaker 1: become a pandemic sensation by helping stressed out parents. Uh,
Speaker 1: and we've talked with her before in Today's Business Week
Speaker 1: Economics were so delighted excited to have back with us
Speaker 1: Emily Austar, author and professor of economics at the Watson
Speaker 1: Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University. She's
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg opinion columnist, and she joins us on the
Speaker 1: phone from Providence, Rhode Island. Um, Emily, we really are delighted.
Speaker 1: We had a great conversation with Esme Dupress, who wrote
Speaker 1: this great story about you that really gets into your
Speaker 1: background and and also the impact you're having on our
Speaker 1: world today, especially parents, which we'll talk about in a moment.
Speaker 1: But talk to us about kind of how you grew
Speaker 1: up and how you got to where you are today,
Speaker 1: because I feel like economics is in your bones, your blood,
Speaker 1: your genetic makeup. No, it's it's totally right. So thank
Speaker 1: you guys for having me. And I'm like incredibly grateful
Speaker 1: to me for having written this article. It's sort of
Speaker 1: always a little bit nerve wracking to read about yourself
Speaker 1: and but um, I think she just I was so
Speaker 1: happy with it. Um. So yeah, I grew up my
Speaker 1: both of my parents are economists. That's probably the most
Speaker 1: valient piece of information. So I have two economist parents.
Speaker 1: I'm actually married to an economist. So I'm sort of
Speaker 1: like steeped from from birth more or less in the
Speaker 1: idea of using economics for decision making in your household.
Speaker 1: And so how does that help you maybe think of
Speaker 1: it differently? You know, in this sense that if you're
Speaker 1: kind of living and breathing it all the time, if
Speaker 1: it really has sort of baked into your very uh being,
Speaker 1: do you think that maybe you naturally think a different
Speaker 1: way than other people do? Make sure it's I'm not
Speaker 1: totally sure, but I do think that there's a sense
Speaker 1: in which you sort of grow up with a way
Speaker 1: of approaching problem and um, you know, and with like
Speaker 1: some as they tell the story, like my my mom
Speaker 1: didn't want to grocery shop when I was a kid.
Speaker 1: I said, you know, why don't we go grocery shopping?
Speaker 1: Like everyone else, why are you ordering groceres? Did you say, well,
Speaker 1: I have a very high opportunity cost of my time
Speaker 1: and you know, And I feel like for me, I
Speaker 1: was like, oh, we were like okay, that makes sense,
Speaker 1: you know what I think. But I think for like,
Speaker 1: for a lot of people, that would be like what
Speaker 1: what are you talking? Yeah, how do you like that
Speaker 1: pick up like you know, pack and gum if you're
Speaker 1: not at the grocery store having those opportunities? I mean no,
Speaker 1: I mean I think as a kid, it's like, where,
Speaker 1: like how was I going to get to negotiate over
Speaker 1: the sugary peanut butter if we were just ordering on online?
Speaker 1: But but but at the same time, like that, that
Speaker 1: notion of learning opportunity any costs though and thinking about
Speaker 1: it is a really um kind of intriguing one because
Speaker 1: if you it's funny you say that because I've actually, um,
Speaker 1: I guess, sort of showing my predilections as well. I've
Speaker 1: actually had that conversation with I've talked about opportunity costs
Speaker 1: with with my teenagers, and I do think that once
Speaker 1: you start to look at that at the world through
Speaker 1: a lens like that, it's hard to then not look
Speaker 1: at it that way, right, Yeah, I think it's very
Speaker 1: hard to turn it off. And I think sometimes, you know,
Speaker 1: it's good that I'm married to another economist, because I'm
Speaker 1: not sure that I could turn it off. And I
Speaker 1: think that for some people of this approach feels like
Speaker 1: really sort of foreign and odd, and it's like, what, like,
Speaker 1: what kind of argument is that for? You know, well,
Speaker 1: I don't you know, I don't feel like I should
Speaker 1: have to load the dishwasher because it's not my comparative advantage.
Speaker 1: That isn't an argument that like works as well if
Speaker 1: your spouse is not also also an economist. Oh my god,
Speaker 1: I studied economics, and I don't know if I if
Speaker 1: I tried that at home, I think my health and
Speaker 1: we would just be like, yeah, you were done. We're done.
Speaker 1: I've heard enough stories about your family. It's not gonna
Speaker 1: work now. But it is interesting, especially, you know, you know,
Speaker 1: fast forward a little bit, like we are in such
Speaker 1: a data centric world, right, and I think about there
Speaker 1: is so much data out there for us to assess
Speaker 1: situations and kind of a rational economic analytic way, and
Speaker 1: and that might help us get through some of the noise.
Speaker 1: That's really hard to get through, especially if you think
Speaker 1: about something like a pandemic. Yeah, I mean I think
Speaker 1: you know, as as I have been trying to do
Speaker 1: more sort of talking to to a lay audience, both
Speaker 1: of the pandemic and even and even before I sort
Speaker 1: of I really rely on data, and for me, sort
Speaker 1: of seeing things in the data is really useful in
Speaker 1: it to be like a key input tough decision making.
Speaker 1: Although one of the things I've realized is that it
Speaker 1: can be very hard for people, say who do not
Speaker 1: depend their whole childhood discussing data, uh, to kind of
Speaker 1: like put data in there in a way that it's
Speaker 1: helpful for making decisions as opposed to just being sort
Speaker 1: of numbers that come out at you. And I think
Speaker 1: that some of the challenge is really like how do
Speaker 1: we put these numbers into context where people can actually
Speaker 1: use them, use them as opposed to just see them
Speaker 1: and kind of not quite understand how to fit them
Speaker 1: in their decision making. I think that's that's kind of
Speaker 1: the tea of economics. So talk to us about some
Speaker 1: of the examples, because because you've really connected with a
Speaker 1: very very broad audience and an audience that normally would
Speaker 1: really shy away from you know, thinking about things through
Speaker 1: this framework. So give us an exist, give us one
Speaker 1: of the good examples where people who aren't as schooled
Speaker 1: in this go oh okay, I got it. I mean
Speaker 1: I think that the you know, the biggest, the biggest
Speaker 1: thing that people sort of is at a hob moment
Speaker 1: for me when I try to explain risk to people
Speaker 1: is I talk about cars. So people are sort of
Speaker 1: have a lot of like, I don't want to take
Speaker 1: that risk. I don't want to take that riskus times
Speaker 1: I'll be like, well do you ever get in a car?
Speaker 1: And then they're like, oh, I see, you know what.
Speaker 1: I think that angle of sort of saying like, oh, actually,
Speaker 1: I am taking some of these risks. It must be
Speaker 1: that I am willing to adopt some risk. Let me
Speaker 1: now flame other things in that. I think that is
Speaker 1: often a moment of like, huh, I see what you're saying. So, Emily,
Speaker 1: let's get down to the brass tacks of parenting during
Speaker 1: this pandemic. It is brutal for a lot of people.
Speaker 1: I mean, I have teenagers and a two and a
Speaker 1: half year old, and I feel like I'm actually in
Speaker 1: pretty good shape because the older ones are self sufficient,
Speaker 1: and the two and a half year old is just
Speaker 1: adorable and you know, kind of living your best life
Speaker 1: amid all of this. But I do feel like for people,
Speaker 1: especially with school age kids, sort of elementary school kids
Speaker 1: who are also trying to work, this is really really difficult. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean I think the spring was really hard and
Speaker 1: then sort of going into the fall. Um. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: was talking to somebody the other day was saying that
Speaker 1: her six year old is expected to be on zoom
Speaker 1: from eight thirty three thirty with a thirty minute break.
Speaker 1: I'm doing, you know, really tough. That's crazy. It's that
Speaker 1: hard for the kids, really hard for the parents. So
Speaker 1: so how do you do? Yeah, because I mean this
Speaker 1: is like parents have been looking to you to like,
Speaker 1: for for kind of guidance on this whole school thing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and I think that, you know, it's sort of at
Speaker 1: some point I realized that it was very hard to
Speaker 1: get that guy into that data and we didn't have
Speaker 1: a good data and so, you know, one of the
Speaker 1: big pandemic projects I've been trying to do is to
Speaker 1: try to actually collect some data on um on tools.
Speaker 1: And as they talked a little bit about that in
Speaker 1: the in the piece, but we've you know, got some
Speaker 1: We've now got in some data. We're starting to you know,
Speaker 1: work with schools, try to collect COVID tracking data over
Speaker 1: time to really look at, you know, what are the
Speaker 1: risks and then I think even the next few weeks
Speaker 1: being able to look at you know, what are the
Speaker 1: what are the kind of mitigation practices of schools are
Speaker 1: taking that are helping them keep cases down so we
Speaker 1: can help places reopen, because I think that is really
Speaker 1: got to be our goal is to get especially younger
Speaker 1: kids back in school. Well, what is the data showing
Speaker 1: when it comes to schools? Um? And you know, it's interesting.
Speaker 1: I was We're talking about real estate earlier, and it's
Speaker 1: always location, location, location, And I feel like even with
Speaker 1: a virus to some extent, it's location, location location. UM
Speaker 1: that you know, every school system, every city, every town
Speaker 1: is not going to be every state is not going
Speaker 1: to be the same. But I'm curious what your data
Speaker 1: showing when it comes to all of this. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: I think our data in general is showing you know,
Speaker 1: fairly low rates. UM. So we actually have you know,
Speaker 1: a bunch of geographics coverage and for you know, in
Speaker 1: person school we're seeing over the last two weeks of September.
Speaker 1: You in the average school of a thousand kids, we're
Speaker 1: seeing about one point five cases. Um, so you know,
Speaker 1: not no cases, but but you know, relatively low, um
Speaker 1: low rates and uh and you know, the rates are
Speaker 1: much lower in elementary than high school in the data
Speaker 1: that we're seeing so far. So it certainly seems like
Speaker 1: there's kind of a stronger argument maybe for bringing back
Speaker 1: younger kids and older kids. Yeah. So, Emily, when you
Speaker 1: think about this from a broader perspective, you know, a
Speaker 1: lot of it. We talked about this on the program
Speaker 1: all the time, this notion that kids being back at
Speaker 1: school is a critical part of the broader economic equation
Speaker 1: in terms of really getting the economy back to some
Speaker 1: sense of normalcy for you know, blue collar workers, white
Speaker 1: color words for the whole workforce. How how do you
Speaker 1: attack that problem or how do you get your arms
Speaker 1: around this notion of measuring the either the loss of
Speaker 1: productivity or whatever it is with kids being at home
Speaker 1: as it plays through the workforce and the and the
Speaker 1: broader employment picture. Yeah, so I think there's sort of
Speaker 1: two things to say about that. So probably the most
Speaker 1: directly to see those kind of impacts. Is to look
Speaker 1: at the labor force numbers, which I think came out
Speaker 1: last week, where you see basically huge drops in labor
Speaker 1: force participation. Make labor force participation overall was down about
Speaker 1: a million UM in primary adults, and it's almost all
Speaker 1: of that is moong women. UM. So I think we're
Speaker 1: really seeing a lot of women labor labor force, presumably
Speaker 1: because there are these additional caregiving obligations at home. But
Speaker 1: I also think we're framing this as somehow like it's
Speaker 1: the economy versus health and we need to open schools
Speaker 1: to the economy and like, let you know, the help
Speaker 1: throw caution to the win on health. But I actually
Speaker 1: think it's there's also real significant health issues depression, anxiety,
Speaker 1: mental health, food and security. There are reasons that we
Speaker 1: want kids in school that have nothing to do with
Speaker 1: you know, we've got to get our economy going right.
Speaker 1: I mean there's also you do wonder what happens to
Speaker 1: kids right developmentally UM and education wise for some of
Speaker 1: those critical years if they're not in school with peers no,
Speaker 1: and I think that you know, there's there's learning losses,
Speaker 1: there's socio emotional development losses. Um, there's you rockouts and
Speaker 1: I think we're going to see the impacts on this,
Speaker 1: on this on kids, you know, basically forever. Yeah. And
Speaker 1: I know, like I knew, some of the positions you've
Speaker 1: taken haven't always been well received by lots of people.
Speaker 1: I know, as it gets into you know, what kind
Speaker 1: of pushback have you gotten? So I think on the
Speaker 1: you know, on the school stuff, UM, you know, the
Speaker 1: position we need more data is something I think many
Speaker 1: people agree with. UM. But you know, I also, UM,
Speaker 1: I have taken the position that we should be reopening
Speaker 1: at least more than we than we have been. And
Speaker 1: I think there, you know, there is pushback there. UM.
Speaker 1: And I think, you know, sometimes you know, you have
Speaker 1: to think about like this argument is grounded in in data, um,
Speaker 1: and we can have an argument on the merits. Um.
Speaker 1: I think it's really important. And reason Witherspoon says she
Speaker 1: likes what you're doing. I'm convinced she's going to play
Speaker 1: you in a miniseries on Netflix. Can I just put
Speaker 1: that out there? That would be amazing, UM, But I
Speaker 1: doubt it. But I I've gotten there's been the life
Speaker 1: is a little bit different in some of those dimensions
Speaker 1: than than it was maybe five years ago. It is
Speaker 1: time for the drive for the clothes. Let's check in
Speaker 1: with Brad McMillan. He is the Chief Investment Officer, Managing
Speaker 1: Principle for Commonwealth Financial Network. Johnny's on the phone from Waltham, Massachusetts. Brad,
Speaker 1: how is life in lovely New England. It's a nice
Speaker 1: time of year, right, this is the time to live
Speaker 1: in New England. The sun is out, the trees are changing.
Speaker 1: From a from a weather perspective, life is good, yeah,
Speaker 1: But otherwise things are a little topsy turvy. They remain
Speaker 1: so I feel like, you know, we talked to you
Speaker 1: a month or two ago, and what's different now. I mean,
Speaker 1: we're much closer to an election which seems to be
Speaker 1: very much friend of mine for investors. Um we have
Speaker 1: a back and forth and back and forth and back
Speaker 1: and forth on stimulus, which certainly is top of mind
Speaker 1: as well. What's top of mind for you. I'm watching
Speaker 1: a couple of things. I'm watching the pandemic. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've seen, we saw things get better, get worse, get better,
Speaker 1: and now they're getting worse again and the risks are rising.
Speaker 1: And obviously we've got the risk coming up with the election.
Speaker 1: There's some real concerns there, and we're looking at the
Speaker 1: economic recovery start to slow down. And what's perverse about
Speaker 1: all this is the market is pretty much kept moving up.
Speaker 1: And what I've come to the conclusion is the worst
Speaker 1: things get, the better they are for the market. Because
Speaker 1: investors are now thinking about the stimulus. It's kind of
Speaker 1: like when bad news was good news because it meant
Speaker 1: that that was going to cut rates. I think we
Speaker 1: have the same kind of anticipated policy rally now that
Speaker 1: we saw then. Hm. So what do you do right
Speaker 1: now as an investor? What's your advice to investors? Well,
Speaker 1: it depends. I mean, if you're an older person or
Speaker 1: somebody who's going to need the money in the next
Speaker 1: couple of years, maybe now is the time to start
Speaker 1: thinking a little bit more cautiously. What's what's older nowadays?
Speaker 1: I am curious about that too, because I think, no, seriously,
Speaker 1: I mean, people are working a lot longer, um, some
Speaker 1: because I have to, some because they want to, and
Speaker 1: can um. And I just do wonder what you know,
Speaker 1: the old formulas about asset allocation and age. I do
Speaker 1: wonder what's different nowadays? Well, I'm fifty five, So from
Speaker 1: my perspective, I'm going to be working at least another
Speaker 1: ten years. I don't really consider myself to be an
Speaker 1: older investor, But if I was really looking to retire
Speaker 1: in the next five years or so, that's when I
Speaker 1: might start to think of myself in the quote older
Speaker 1: unquote context as an investor, I'd start paying more attention
Speaker 1: to avoiding losses than maximizing gains. I think that's probably
Speaker 1: the best way to think about it. Are you looking
Speaker 1: to maximize your gains? Are you at the point where
Speaker 1: you're really looking to make sure you don't lose too much?
Speaker 1: That's where you get older from an investment standpoint, Brad,
Speaker 1: what do you think about the election as it plays
Speaker 1: into an investment thesis at this point? Because I feel
Speaker 1: like in past uh times and the before times as
Speaker 1: it were, you know, we're looking at it. Actually, Hey, okay,
Speaker 1: election is gonna happen. We're gonna know who the president is,
Speaker 1: you know, within maybe a few hours, certainly a day
Speaker 1: or in the case of two thousand, a couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: a few weeks. But it feels like there isn't that
Speaker 1: certainty for people right now. Does it change the way
Speaker 1: you invest at all, or do you just kind of
Speaker 1: hang on tight. It shouldn't it shouldn't change it the
Speaker 1: doll And the reason I say that is, you're right,
Speaker 1: we're going to see a lot of volatility. Markets are
Speaker 1: expecting November to be pretty toughed, and you know, I
Speaker 1: agree with that, and it might well extend beyond that.
Speaker 1: But are we going to be thinking about that next
Speaker 1: year at this time? I don't think so. Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 1: So you know, it's it's like, even if it's a
Speaker 1: monumental disaster, and I'm not saying it will be, it
Speaker 1: will pass. You know, as of inauguration day, the existing
Speaker 1: president will leave office and the new president will be inaugurated.
Speaker 1: We don't know who that is. Their procedures in place,
Speaker 1: and we'll get through it. It's gonna be ugly, quite possibly,
Speaker 1: but this tool will pass. Yeah. You know, listen, you know,
Speaker 1: we know good perspective. We will get through these things.
Speaker 1: We've gotten through tough things before. We certainly will get
Speaker 1: on the other side of this. The one thing I
Speaker 1: do wonder that when we do get on the other
Speaker 1: side of it, these systemic problems, these gaps within our society,
Speaker 1: you know, we talk a lot about wealth creation, and
Speaker 1: we had a great story, you know, by our shandon
Speaker 1: and troubling story you know in Cleveland, you know Ohio
Speaker 1: about you know, depending on where you are, you're either
Speaker 1: doing really well and and and or you're not. And
Speaker 1: it tends to be minorities who are not. They can't
Speaker 1: own property, they just don't have the wealth to do it. Uh.
Speaker 1: And it really tells kind of that bigger, broader story
Speaker 1: in the country. I bring this up because, Brad, I mean,
Speaker 1: ultimately the economy, society as a whole benefits when everybody benefits.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think about what you do right, the
Speaker 1: more people who are in the markets or who need
Speaker 1: financial advice, that's good for you guys longer terms. So
Speaker 1: I do wonder how you think about that, how you
Speaker 1: think about how what we need to do to improve
Speaker 1: it so that there are more people that are able
Speaker 1: to actually create wealth in this country and that it's
Speaker 1: not just concentrated in a few hands. Totally agree, Cal
Speaker 1: And if you look at it as a citizen, I
Speaker 1: could make with you more is an economist, I also
Speaker 1: agree with you because the truth of the matter is
Speaker 1: the most economically healthy society is we're purchasing power, the
Speaker 1: ability to spend and invest is spread the most widely,
Speaker 1: so it's in white and self interest to say this
Speaker 1: is a problem we have to solve. And the political
Speaker 1: system you can see, you know, we get these generational shifts,
Speaker 1: and my guests would be this election or the next one,
Speaker 1: we will start to do exactly that. We're going to
Speaker 1: see a focus on younger people, less affluent people. You know,
Speaker 1: I think the tax structure will probably is eventually look
Speaker 1: more like it did in the nineteen fifties. You know,
Speaker 1: the labor laws were looking more like they did in
Speaker 1: the nineteen fifties. We've we've had more equal society. We
Speaker 1: can do it again. That's a really interesting point. That's
Speaker 1: a really interesting point. All right, Brad McMillan, thank you
Speaker 1: so much. Nice to catch up with you, always so thoughtful,
Speaker 1: Chief Investment Officer, Managing Principle at Commonwealth Financial Network. Journeys
Speaker 1: on the phone from Waltham and a programming net for
Speaker 1: all of our listeners. Jason Kelly, my partner and crime
Speaker 1: my co host here at Bloomberg Business Week. He is
Speaker 1: leaving our family, but not really leaving the Bloomberg family.
Speaker 1: That's exactly right, Carol. I am headed over to be
Speaker 1: the chief correspondent for Quick Take. It is our over
Speaker 1: the top network, launching on November nine, so I'll still
Speaker 1: be around and I won't go too far. But it
Speaker 1: has been a massive pleasure working on the show and
Speaker 1: working on this podcast. We're so humbled. I think it's
Speaker 1: fair to say, Carol, by all the listeners support that
Speaker 1: we've gotten the fun conversations we've gotten to have, and
Speaker 1: I know you will continue to do that better and
Speaker 1: better and better going forward. We love our audience and
Speaker 1: they have really shaped who we want to talk to
Speaker 1: and who we bring in, so we thank you so
Speaker 1: much for that. And Jason, I can't even tell you
Speaker 1: how much I will miss you. Um. I think you
Speaker 1: know though, UM. For everybody else our podcast audience, we'll
Speaker 1: see you here next week.