1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,599 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, the Federal 7 00:00:22,800 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 1: Reserve is raising interest rates. I think we all get that. 8 00:00:26,480 --> 00:00:28,000 Speaker 1: The question now that I hear from a lot of 9 00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 1: investors is how aggressively will they be doing? Are we 10 00:00:31,360 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: talking twenty five basis points at a time, fifty basis points? 11 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: How much an aggregate? Let's check in with somebody who 12 00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: kind of does this stuff for living. David Riley, chief 13 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: investment strategist for Blue Bay Asset Management. David, the US 14 00:00:43,400 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 1: Federal Reserve is in a hiking mode. How do you 15 00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 1: envision it playing out? Hi, Paul, Well, I actually think 16 00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 1: the Fed is more likely to have a hiking cycle 17 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:59,680 Speaker 1: rather like the one that we had in and that's 18 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 1: where the Fed, you know, it was actually very aggressive. 19 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 1: It hiked rates by three hundred basis points in the 20 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: course of um twelve months. It kind of got ahead 21 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 1: of inflation issues. The economy did slow down, but it 22 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:18,680 Speaker 1: didn't go into recession, and so you know, the FED 23 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,640 Speaker 1: engineered a soft landing for the economy, retained its kind 24 00:01:22,640 --> 00:01:27,120 Speaker 1: of UM anti inflation or reinforced is anti inflation credentially. 25 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: So I actually think that's a more likely past now 26 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 1: for the FED because it is behind the inflation curve 27 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 1: than this kind of you know model that a lot 28 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: of people look at, which is two thousand and four 29 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: to six, where it was a very gradual, very predictable, 30 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: twenty five basis point hike at each meeting. What does 31 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:49,240 Speaker 1: this mean then for positioning? Paul and I have talked 32 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: a lot about duration. Are one hundred year bond is 33 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:55,760 Speaker 1: down about fifty has duration does not do well in 34 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,080 Speaker 1: higher rates. How are you thinking then about what this 35 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 1: means for positioning an important folio out. Yeah, so I 36 00:02:03,120 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: do think that, um, you know, we've we've got a 37 00:02:06,320 --> 00:02:09,360 Speaker 1: lot now priced in. I still think the market is 38 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: underpricing where the FED is actually going to go up. 39 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: So in terms of positioning in our fixed income port boliers, 40 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: we would still have over the medium term a UM 41 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:24,519 Speaker 1: short duration bias when it comes to US rates would 42 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,200 Speaker 1: still rather express that at the shorter end than at 43 00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: the longer end, because as you've been reporting, we're you know, 44 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:35,520 Speaker 1: seeing a pretty dramatic flattening of the treasury curve and 45 00:02:35,560 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 1: it's and it's quite I mean we've we've also had 46 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:41,840 Speaker 1: a sort of intra day UM that tend to invers 47 00:02:42,160 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: as well. So and then within credit, I think it 48 00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 1: makes sense to be thinking about kind of moving up 49 00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: in quality, getting access in a high inflation environment to 50 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 1: real assets, so maybe taking some exposure through you know, 51 00:02:56,320 --> 00:03:01,760 Speaker 1: securitized mortgage securities as well. All right, David, I'm going 52 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: for yield. I'm ready to take some risk. I'm going 53 00:03:04,639 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: looking at the high yield market, maybe even the leverage 54 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: loan market. What are some of the sectors I should 55 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 1: be looking at right now? Yeah, I mean the sectors 56 00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:16,839 Speaker 1: that have done you know, pretty well within the high 57 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 1: yield and leverage loan space, UM, as you would expect, 58 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:26,640 Speaker 1: has been UM energy, UM. I think the other areas 59 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 1: where I would go would be and we have been going, 60 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 1: is some of the more defensive sectors, so UM, consumer staples, healthcare. UM. 61 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: There's not so much tech, but you know, what you 62 00:03:38,840 --> 00:03:41,960 Speaker 1: want to get I think is exposure to sectors or 63 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:47,280 Speaker 1: those names which can absorb those higher input prices, those 64 00:03:47,360 --> 00:03:50,440 Speaker 1: higher input input costs that are coming from you know, 65 00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 1: higher gasoline, higher ore prices, and energy prices more more 66 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: generally have the you know, the pricing power to absorb that, 67 00:03:59,440 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: where I would the void would be things like sort 68 00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: of some of the industrials, you know, auto park suppliers 69 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:08,800 Speaker 1: margins are pretty low. They're going to get I think 70 00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 1: quite um squeezed in terms of those margins. And more recently, 71 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:16,359 Speaker 1: I've actually been shifting from loans back into high yield 72 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,520 Speaker 1: bombs because you know, we've had a lot of repricing 73 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 1: or higher rate risk is now in in in high 74 00:04:22,240 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 1: your bomb prices. Well, in terms of leverage loans, we're 75 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:29,520 Speaker 1: going to see significant increase in the cost of that 76 00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,480 Speaker 1: funding for a lot of uh for a lot of companies. 77 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,080 Speaker 1: So a bit more bias towards more defensive sectors, higher 78 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:40,520 Speaker 1: margin um and also to you know, starting to shift 79 00:04:40,520 --> 00:04:43,800 Speaker 1: from from loans into high yield I am curious when 80 00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: you think about credit, how much of that is a 81 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 1: sort of a fundamental strong economy call versus shorter modified 82 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:59,320 Speaker 1: duration than investment grade and it's just a shorter duration call. Yeah, 83 00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:03,360 Speaker 1: as a the fair point, um. I mean, I do 84 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:05,480 Speaker 1: think when you look at it's interesting when you look 85 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: at the credit market more more broadly, um, including in 86 00:05:09,200 --> 00:05:11,280 Speaker 1: particularly within the high yield market. I mean, we're just 87 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:16,239 Speaker 1: not seeing of sort of really meaningful signs signs of 88 00:05:16,240 --> 00:05:19,880 Speaker 1: of of of cracks. And I do think that, you know, 89 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 1: the liquidity position of companies, including within the high yield market, 90 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,320 Speaker 1: is actually still very strong. I mean they've built up huge, 91 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 1: you know, pretty big cash balances. Leverage is actually now 92 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: the lower it was just prior to the pandemic. So 93 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 1: I think, you know, default rates, the fundamental kind of 94 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: credit risk is actually looking still um, pretty good. So 95 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:49,359 Speaker 1: I still think it makes sense, as you've suggested, to 96 00:05:49,440 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: have a bias towards higher yielding because you've got that 97 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 1: kind of spread cushion against higher rates and it's a 98 00:05:55,880 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 1: shorter duration asset. So, David, you know, like the rest 99 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,480 Speaker 1: of the world, we're watching what's happening in the Ukraine, 100 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: and but for Americans there's a little bit of yeah, 101 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: but it's over there, But over there is in the 102 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 1: backyard of Europe. How is the European credit markets reacted 103 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:14,360 Speaker 1: to the geopolitical issues taking place to the war taking 104 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 1: place in Ukraine. Yeah, I mean it's been interesting because 105 00:06:18,200 --> 00:06:21,200 Speaker 1: I mean, it's certainly the case that European credit has 106 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:27,800 Speaker 1: um since Russia's invasion of Ukraine underperformed u US credit. 107 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,120 Speaker 1: It's sold off initially much harder, and then it's come 108 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:35,840 Speaker 1: back um or tightened less quickly. And I think that 109 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:39,400 Speaker 1: makes sense because you know, I mean, I think the 110 00:06:39,440 --> 00:06:42,599 Speaker 1: economic and the year political risks are much greater for 111 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: Europe than they are for the United States in terms 112 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:50,920 Speaker 1: of the Russia Russia Ukraine crisis. And you know, gas 113 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: prices is a huge issue for for for Europe. Even 114 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: though we've seen you know, some um the recent decline 115 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 1: or or drop in European natural prices, they're still you know, 116 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:04,600 Speaker 1: five six times where they were a year ago. And 117 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:06,720 Speaker 1: you know, talking to some of our analysts have been taught, 118 00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 1: you know, analyzing companies and talking some of those European companies, 119 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 1: they're feeling some companies are starting to fill this neece 120 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:16,920 Speaker 1: from this increase in emper prices. And we've just seen 121 00:07:17,520 --> 00:07:21,559 Speaker 1: German inflation at levels we've not seen since the early 122 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 1: mid nine seventies, and that's painful to consumers, but it's 123 00:07:25,080 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: painful for businesses as well. Ye. Good stuff. Hey, David, 124 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:30,400 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. David Riley, chief investment 125 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: strategist for Bloombley Asset Management. We got Michael McKee, Bloomberg 126 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: Economics Editor. Here's here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. 127 00:07:41,400 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 1: After chatting with Richmond FED President Thomas Barkin, again he 128 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: seems like a reasonable business base. FED president came across 129 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,720 Speaker 1: pretty reasonable to me. But Rachel going up and they're 130 00:07:53,720 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: gonna do what it takes. Rachel going up, They're gonna 131 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:59,280 Speaker 1: do what it takes. Uh, He's a little less convinced. 132 00:07:59,320 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: I think that grates have to go as high as 133 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:06,119 Speaker 1: some people are suggesting, and he's open to a fifty 134 00:08:06,160 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: basis point move, but not saying it's definitely has to happen. 135 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:11,640 Speaker 1: He's not a voter this year, but in terms of 136 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: his opinion, because I think he maybe gets a view 137 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: from the district, from the CEOs in his district that 138 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 1: as you heard, things maybe slowing down a little bit, 139 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: not a whole lot, but these things tend to gain 140 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 1: momentum as you go along. You had a really good 141 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:33,120 Speaker 1: question about sort of the wage spiral and maybe that 142 00:08:33,240 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: self fulfilling prophecy of if inflations higher costs arising, you 143 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:39,640 Speaker 1: need higher wages to keep up with that, and then 144 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 1: companies have the ability to raise costs again because they 145 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,679 Speaker 1: know that workers are getting paid more. Is that a 146 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,280 Speaker 1: legitimate concern. Well, it's been the fence concerned all along. 147 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,600 Speaker 1: They don't want people to start thinking that inflation is 148 00:08:52,640 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 1: embedded and going to stay that way, because then they 149 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:59,560 Speaker 1: keep asking for more money. Tom was suggesting that we 150 00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:02,800 Speaker 1: might be seeing the early signs of that slowing down 151 00:09:02,840 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: because companies did raise prices and now people are they 152 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:10,960 Speaker 1: had to raise their wages to keep up with it 153 00:09:11,000 --> 00:09:13,040 Speaker 1: and to get people back into the labor force. But 154 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: people may at this point have gotten the rays they need, 155 00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: and if gasoline prices in particular come down soon, they 156 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:23,959 Speaker 1: may not need to continue that. But it is their 157 00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,320 Speaker 1: biggest fear. I just had my year in review. I 158 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: did not experience any wage spiraling anywhere. I mean, maybe 159 00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:34,040 Speaker 1: inching is maybe the better thing. And you're gonna be 160 00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:38,040 Speaker 1: complaining when you fill up that pancakes, right, all right? 161 00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 1: So this federal reserve um is there still an argument 162 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,080 Speaker 1: to me that they're behind the curve um. I'm not 163 00:09:45,080 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 1: even sure what that means, but it's certainly something people 164 00:09:47,320 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 1: toss out there. But it feels like my federal reserve 165 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:52,920 Speaker 1: is moving here while they are moving. They've moved once, 166 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: and it looks like they're going to speed it up. 167 00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,520 Speaker 1: Behind the curve is a sort of matter of where 168 00:09:59,559 --> 00:10:03,680 Speaker 1: you sit and what your view is. Uh. People on 169 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 1: trading desks are always going to look for a reason 170 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:10,079 Speaker 1: that they didn't lose money. Uh, something else made them 171 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 1: lose money. Uh. So you know, some people are gonna 172 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: say they're behind the curve, some not. The FED is 173 00:10:16,640 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: trying to figure things out in a world that's different 174 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,040 Speaker 1: because of the pandemic from the past. So that's that's 175 00:10:23,080 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: one of the troubles that they have. And now it's 176 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: gonna be interesting to watch. As I asked Tom, you know, 177 00:10:27,480 --> 00:10:29,440 Speaker 1: how do you how do you know you've done enough 178 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 1: or done too much? When policy works with a lag 179 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: and we're in a situation like we are now, speaking 180 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:40,200 Speaker 1: of curves, I've been breeding a lot of notes recently that, 181 00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,960 Speaker 1: of course, sometimes we really look at the three month tenure, 182 00:10:43,040 --> 00:10:45,480 Speaker 1: but if the FED is still behind the curve, the 183 00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 1: two year tenure is maybe doing a better job. I've 184 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,560 Speaker 1: given us more of a realistic view. Is the FED 185 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,360 Speaker 1: looking at yeld curves? What do you make of those comments? Now? 186 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 1: I think the people who are looking at yield curves, 187 00:10:56,160 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 1: or the people in the media, when the yield curve 188 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 1: gets close to inversions, looking it's you got very excited 189 00:11:04,160 --> 00:11:08,960 Speaker 1: and all twenty three seconds it was inverted you you 190 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:14,880 Speaker 1: were just ecstatic. Um, the FED, is the yield curve 191 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:18,199 Speaker 1: tells you that at some point do you think that 192 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:20,360 Speaker 1: the economy is going to slow down? The problem is 193 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:22,839 Speaker 1: there's no timing on It could be eighteen months, two 194 00:11:23,000 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: years ahead of time, and is it really connected to 195 00:11:25,760 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 1: the yield curve or is it something else that comes along. 196 00:11:29,160 --> 00:11:32,080 Speaker 1: The FED looks at the three months eighteen months forwards 197 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,320 Speaker 1: because that tells you sort of where they are now 198 00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 1: and where the market expects them to be in a 199 00:11:37,840 --> 00:11:40,520 Speaker 1: year and a half, which is a little bit more 200 00:11:41,000 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 1: sensible in terms of what you're trying to figure out. 201 00:11:44,360 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 1: But it makes a nice conversation piece and a question 202 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: to ask people. All Right, Michael McKee, thank you so 203 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: much for joining us here in our interactive broker studio, 204 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 1: giving us a summary of your discussion just moments ago 205 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: with Richmond FED President Thomas Barkin. Uh, he's uh Richmond 206 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 1: the home of the University of Richmond Spiders, my alma mater. 207 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 1: Right now, let's check in with Michael Hans Hans ce 208 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:11,640 Speaker 1: IO of Clarfelt Citizens Private Wealth. Michael, thanks so much 209 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: for joining us here. You know, we look at these 210 00:12:13,880 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 1: markets and kind of you know, not much going on today, 211 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 1: but we've certainly had volatility so far in the year. 212 00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: Where do we go from here? What are you telling 213 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 1: your clients? Good morning? Thanks for having me. Volatility is 214 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 1: likely going to persist for you know, the better part 215 00:12:31,920 --> 00:12:34,640 Speaker 1: of this year, and I don't think it's a surprise 216 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:37,599 Speaker 1: to anyone. I think there's a fair amount of overall 217 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 1: economic uncertainty and then you throw a geo political event 218 00:12:42,160 --> 00:12:45,839 Speaker 1: into the mix that exacerbates, you know, the challenges that 219 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 1: the FED has, and no surprise that we're seeing markets, 220 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: you know, influx. What what we're expressing at this point 221 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:56,040 Speaker 1: in time as it relates our portfolios is you know, 222 00:12:56,240 --> 00:13:00,199 Speaker 1: very little in the way of meaningful changes. Uh, as 223 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 1: a reactionary function to to what's been going on. However, 224 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 1: we are we are thinking about the outlook you know, 225 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:09,199 Speaker 1: given given where things are moving, but you know, the 226 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 1: forefront UH conversations are let's not react to aggressively to 227 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 1: the geopolitical aspect and let's keep our attention onto the 228 00:13:17,280 --> 00:13:19,679 Speaker 1: path of the economy. Do you have to react though, 229 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 1: to some of the inflationary pressures underway? So I think 230 00:13:24,440 --> 00:13:29,200 Speaker 1: the elements around inflationary pressures in our minds have been 231 00:13:29,280 --> 00:13:34,079 Speaker 1: in in UH position over time, right, And so to 232 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: be underweight duration and fixed income has has been important. 233 00:13:37,440 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 1: And you know, like the key seem that we've outlined 234 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:42,400 Speaker 1: over the course of the last year or so, because 235 00:13:42,600 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 1: again it's difficult to to position in an environment where 236 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 1: your compensation was just very limited. That dynamic is changing 237 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 1: now and we do not feel we're in a position 238 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,080 Speaker 1: yet when we want to play offense and and yet 239 00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:57,359 Speaker 1: long duration yet. But I think that's a meaningful positioning 240 00:13:57,360 --> 00:13:59,720 Speaker 1: that we've had going into this, and I think that's 241 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: that's been a clear benefit. I think over time, the 242 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 1: interesting dynamic is that duration will become more interesting as 243 00:14:06,640 --> 00:14:09,680 Speaker 1: everybody is most negative and pessimistic on the space, and 244 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 1: that's that's actually been increasing. So the outlook for fixed 245 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: income is becoming more constructive while this recent roundy off 246 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 1: off of the lows and the equity market again, I 247 00:14:18,200 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 1: think it just dictates that there's going to be a 248 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: little bit less potential upside the balance of this year 249 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:27,440 Speaker 1: as we work through market market fluctuation. Okay, Michael, I've 250 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: I've heard and read the recession word more and more 251 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 1: over the last two to three weeks. Is that something 252 00:14:34,080 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 1: that's in your outlook not not for this year? And 253 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:42,120 Speaker 1: I think think it's it's really interesting prior to guests outlining, 254 00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 1: and I think you know, Mike mckith mentioned that it's 255 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: the media that's heavily focused on the yield curve. I 256 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 1: think the old curve is is not necessarily the indicator. 257 00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:53,040 Speaker 1: It's more of a symptom of what is going on 258 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 1: and that and from the timing perspective, you know, the 259 00:14:56,320 --> 00:15:00,080 Speaker 1: data is very clear that it's a difficult mat and 260 00:15:00,160 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 1: isn't utilized to make significant adjustments, right, It's more of 261 00:15:03,880 --> 00:15:07,680 Speaker 1: a coincidence factor of what's going on. Our clients are 262 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 1: also focused on that, and that's certainly something that comes up, 263 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:12,560 Speaker 1: but it's not the first time. So the education around 264 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: this is something that gives us. Can you know, the 265 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 1: rate race of flax, right. You you look at a 266 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:20,800 Speaker 1: variety of other metrics, but I think we keep on 267 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 1: coming back to the fact that we have re established 268 00:15:23,760 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: trend economic growth. Uh. There there are good stabilizing factors 269 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 1: in play this year, specifically balance sheet extation that's coming up. 270 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 1: More exflation is absolutely coming, but I think that's also 271 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 1: I think we're looking at historical time frames and again 272 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: these are the types of words that come into play, 273 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,880 Speaker 1: but in the environment we're in, we're actually looking at 274 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: above trend economic growth this year. The first quarter is 275 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: going to likely come in a little bit softer, but 276 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 1: if we have above trend growth for the balance of 277 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 1: this year, you know, it does it does beget the 278 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:02,240 Speaker 1: need to have again, can newed equity exposure in a portfolio. 279 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: The one the things that I think is really important 280 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:06,800 Speaker 1: that you don't I don't think we hear enough in 281 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 1: in the media is that investing is not a binary game, right, 282 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:13,560 Speaker 1: and that that all too often and is what we 283 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 1: really emphasize with our clients. We really thoughtfully construct portfolios 284 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 1: that are highly diversified. And I think what's really important 285 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:23,360 Speaker 1: now with the context of the last couple of years 286 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,680 Speaker 1: and this entire cycle you know, and even coming into 287 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,760 Speaker 1: this year before we had market downturns and when markets 288 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,320 Speaker 1: were at all time clients are our major points to 289 00:16:31,440 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: clients was resetting a level of expectation that we don't 290 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,320 Speaker 1: anticipate the race of return to continue in the manner 291 00:16:38,320 --> 00:16:41,440 Speaker 1: of which they did last year. Was that bailed out 292 00:16:41,520 --> 00:16:45,640 Speaker 1: by a well above historical norm equity market, and that 293 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 1: mass some of the challenges within fixed income. Our outlook 294 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: today has actually improved in a meaningful manner given where 295 00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:56,160 Speaker 1: interest rates are interesting. All right, hey, Michael, thank you 296 00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting your thoughts there. 297 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:02,000 Speaker 1: Michael hans see i oh of Harfeld Citizens Private Wealth Management. 298 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 1: They're based in Terrytown, New York. And Michael's got a 299 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 1: green dot next to his name, which is good to seek. 300 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: Looking at the bitcoin here, we can't do that because 301 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:17,959 Speaker 1: Tom Keen is not here. Bitcoins off just about one 302 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,800 Speaker 1: percent here, still above forty seven thousand. Feels like it's 303 00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:23,719 Speaker 1: been in this fairly tight trading range. Maybe that's just me, 304 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:25,720 Speaker 1: but you know, we see the moves one or two 305 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:27,840 Speaker 1: percent every day, but it's still kind of in this range. Uh, 306 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:30,520 Speaker 1: let's bring on Katie Gridfeld. She's a cross as reporter 307 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:33,120 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Quick Take co anchor. She joins us here 308 00:17:33,160 --> 00:17:35,879 Speaker 1: in a Bloomberg and her actor broker studio Crypto. What 309 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,040 Speaker 1: are you looking at take, Katie, Well, like you said, Paul, 310 00:17:38,080 --> 00:17:40,960 Speaker 1: the price action we did see actually a break above 311 00:17:41,000 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 1: that range, a little bit. It got above forty dollars 312 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: a coin. It looks like it's staying there. Hasn't pushed 313 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: much higher beyond that. And I think it was last 314 00:17:49,680 --> 00:17:52,240 Speaker 1: week that we were having this debate with Matt Miller 315 00:17:52,280 --> 00:17:54,679 Speaker 1: about whether it's a good or a bad thing, that 316 00:17:54,720 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 1: you've really seen the volatility of bitcoin drop off. And 317 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 1: I have some new numbers to share. This comes from 318 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:03,359 Speaker 1: Mike Reagan. He wrote a great column yesterday that if 319 00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,280 Speaker 1: you look at the ratio of bitcoins realized volatility to 320 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,840 Speaker 1: t l T, it's that long bond long treasury et F, 321 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,760 Speaker 1: it'small into less than one point five five versus seven 322 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: just six weeks ago. So you've really seen bitcoin volatility 323 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:20,159 Speaker 1: really drop off a cliff. Even though it did manage 324 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:21,679 Speaker 1: to get a little bit out of that range, it 325 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: hasn't gone Why the retail investors, Okay, that's probably yeah, no, 326 00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:35,119 Speaker 1: but you have seen some enthusiasm come out of the space. 327 00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:37,360 Speaker 1: The fact that you saw that big draw down from 328 00:18:37,920 --> 00:18:42,240 Speaker 1: basically November until February, I think that washed out a 329 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:44,600 Speaker 1: lot of positions. That's what I've been hearing. It really 330 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 1: flushed out a lot of those retail players who haven't 331 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 1: really come back into the market. You do hear about 332 00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: some big buys. I mean, micro Strategy was out yesterday 333 00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 1: with an announcement that um they would lever up to 334 00:18:55,840 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 1: borrow more bitcoin, but maybe those retail participants aren't there 335 00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: like they were maybe six months ago. I'm curious the 336 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: focus has been a lot on Bitcoin. I was watching Ethereum, 337 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,119 Speaker 1: which hasn't quite you know, sort of recouped a lot 338 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: of the losses the way we saw with Bitcoin regaining 339 00:19:09,320 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: some of the the year to date losses, Ethereum has to, 340 00:19:13,840 --> 00:19:15,440 Speaker 1: but you just don't quite hear about it. The way 341 00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: we have about Bitcoin. Ethereum is funny. I mean crypto 342 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 1: in general is funny. Where a bitcoin, it's supposed to 343 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:24,159 Speaker 1: be this magnificent store of value, really acts like a 344 00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:26,919 Speaker 1: leverage tech stock. And then Ethereum, there is a lot 345 00:19:27,000 --> 00:19:30,840 Speaker 1: of excitement around the Ethereum blockchain, but Ether the token 346 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:34,160 Speaker 1: more than anything, it acts like a leverage bet on Bitcoin. 347 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 1: So it's interesting that in this rebound that we've seen 348 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:41,200 Speaker 1: in the crypto space, it's really been Bitcoin lead, not Ethereum. 349 00:19:41,440 --> 00:19:44,200 Speaker 1: I'm gonna be interested to see if those correlations ever 350 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:47,080 Speaker 1: break apart at some point, because you do have some 351 00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 1: different fundamentals on those blockchains, but the tokens just trade 352 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:55,760 Speaker 1: in tandem. You hear that fundamental? I said it, Where 353 00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:58,000 Speaker 1: are we now that there was a hack right on 354 00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: one of these crypto things on out now? I know 355 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:02,879 Speaker 1: it's a real classroom. We started about talking about hacks. 356 00:20:03,119 --> 00:20:05,320 Speaker 1: What happened there? There are more and more hacks, so 357 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:08,479 Speaker 1: this is really interesting. Involves what's known as a bridge, 358 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: which basically likes to move tokens from one block chain 359 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:15,200 Speaker 1: to another. So thank you know, it's pretty hard to 360 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: move money from Venmo to PayPal. This is basically a 361 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: bridge that kind of connects the different blockchains so you 362 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 1: can move money around. But you're seeing more and more 363 00:20:24,520 --> 00:20:28,320 Speaker 1: hacks of these bridges. You saw one in February with wormhole. 364 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: You saw another one. Uh, news of this break yesterday. 365 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,840 Speaker 1: It's actually took six days for them to uncover this hack, 366 00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:36,880 Speaker 1: and let me just explain what it was. So there's 367 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,200 Speaker 1: this play to earn game called Axie Infinity, and what 368 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 1: we learned yesterday was that hackers sold about six hundred 369 00:20:43,000 --> 00:20:46,920 Speaker 1: million dollars worth of tokens from the blockchain network connected 370 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:51,320 Speaker 1: to that game, specifically from the bridge that connects it. 371 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,399 Speaker 1: And again it took six days for them to uncover this, 372 00:20:54,480 --> 00:20:56,359 Speaker 1: So that's a lot of money. So hold on. So 373 00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 1: you could argue that the thesis of ethery um or 374 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 1: bitcoin or the blockchain is still intact, because that is 375 00:21:03,280 --> 00:21:06,760 Speaker 1: supposed to be sort of right, this decentralized, unhackable if 376 00:21:06,800 --> 00:21:08,959 Speaker 1: you will in quote. So the fact that they can 377 00:21:09,000 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: say it was the bridge and not like the underlined blockchain, 378 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:17,000 Speaker 1: does that thesis then still hold up? Yes, I would 379 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:20,240 Speaker 1: say that that most people, most of the criticisms I've 380 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,200 Speaker 1: seen this is mostly focused on the fact that you 381 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:25,080 Speaker 1: have these bridges, and the problem with these bridges is 382 00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 1: that the computer code that makes the mark it it 383 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:32,159 Speaker 1: isn't audited. So basically, these hackers are finding ways to 384 00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 1: exploit that computer code in the way it's written. So 385 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,560 Speaker 1: you could form an argument that is it really a 386 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,480 Speaker 1: hack if we're just following the code. I think a 387 00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,560 Speaker 1: lot of people would say that, yes, you are hacking it, 388 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,200 Speaker 1: but again it's in the code. They're finding these exploits 389 00:21:45,240 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: that let them basically siphen these coins out of the bridges. 390 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,040 Speaker 1: All Right, we have a Federal Reserve here that is 391 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,640 Speaker 1: raising interest rates and pretty significantly. Do we have any 392 00:21:55,720 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 1: idea how crypto broadly defined ken and will or could 393 00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: perform in this type of environment. It's a great question 394 00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 1: because the last time the Fed really was raising rates 395 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 1: in that's when the last cycle ended. I mean, bitcoin 396 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: was less than five thousand dollars of coins. It wasn't 397 00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 1: in the mainstream like it is now. So I think 398 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,600 Speaker 1: this is the biggest test that we're coming up a 399 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:21,840 Speaker 1: real full blown rate hiking cycle. I mean, if bitcoin 400 00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 1: continues to have the same properties that it does now 401 00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:27,399 Speaker 1: where it's just a leverage bet on tech stocks, you 402 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,000 Speaker 1: would think that would be bad news for the price 403 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:33,399 Speaker 1: of bitcoin. But I mean we've seen tech stocks completely 404 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,600 Speaker 1: defyed that logic. So Paul to go back to his 405 00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,359 Speaker 1: desk and try to figure out the discount rate to 406 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:41,960 Speaker 1: plug into the cash chairs to get the present value 407 00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,160 Speaker 1: of bitcoin. If you could let me know that would 408 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,439 Speaker 1: be really helpful fashionable article out of it. Yeah, exactly, 409 00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:50,199 Speaker 1: we'll have to see. I mean again, Bitcoin uh kind 410 00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,439 Speaker 1: of steady today, still forty seven thousand dollars per token, 411 00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: and we quote it just like we quote equities and 412 00:22:56,640 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 1: fixed income. It's an asset class to me. That's why 413 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 1: I always keep it front center here, Jamie Diamond, I 414 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,399 Speaker 1: know is still a little uh skit issue about it, 415 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 1: but the just and you talk to the younger folks 416 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:11,439 Speaker 1: in finance, this is it Crypto is it? I mean 417 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,600 Speaker 1: it is you. Yeah, it's not going away, so you've 418 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:16,119 Speaker 1: got to get in front of it, I think, and 419 00:23:16,160 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: I think the regulators are trying to get in front 420 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:19,680 Speaker 1: of it too, because they are not but uh, you know, 421 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 1: the SEC chairman against or maybe focusing on that. All right, 422 00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:24,560 Speaker 1: Katie Gryfeld, thanks so much for joining us. As always, 423 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 1: Katie Gryfeld, cross asset reporter and Bloomberg Quick Take a 424 00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 1: co anchor. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 425 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 426 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 427 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,920 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller put on full Sweeney. I'm 428 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can 429 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,800 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio