Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, the single best idea.
Speaker 1: It has been an extraordinary day. I want to start
Speaker 1: with something I have never seen. I've been doing this
Speaker 1: for four or five six years, and I've never ever
Speaker 1: seen what we saw today. And as we tape this
Speaker 1: single best idea at our world headquarters, I want to
Speaker 1: make clear that there is speculation and rumor and uncertainty,
Speaker 1: but I do think I can paint for those of
Speaker 1: you across the nation and quite frankly, at worldwide, as
Speaker 1: we see Russia in a prisoner swap reported by our
Speaker 1: Jennifer Jacobs with allies including the United States. I've seen numbers,
Speaker 1: thank you Moscow Times at twenty to thirty people to
Speaker 1: telegraph as that statistic. I believe Jennifer Jacob has it
Speaker 1: as well. The partition that occurred this morning between TV
Speaker 1: and Frankly us to an extent reporting the rumors, the speculation,
Speaker 1: the minimal facts that Jennifer Jacobs had in front of her,
Speaker 1: and the newspapers in America which had a thundering silence.
Speaker 1: And this was this nuance here of released or to
Speaker 1: be released. And it really goes down to the nuance
Speaker 1: the fears in the tension that you see within a
Speaker 1: prisoner swap. I've never seen it like I saw it
Speaker 1: on this Thursday in Russia and across Europe and America
Speaker 1: as well. We had wonderful guests. I can't say enough
Speaker 1: about it. What a generous conversation with Waylee on China
Speaker 1: her stunning statistic that she looks for a three percent
Speaker 1: handle she and Blackrock, I should say, look for a
Speaker 1: three percent handle of economic growth at some point. That's
Speaker 1: game changing for the Pacific rims say the least, but
Speaker 1: also with price up and yield down between long maturity
Speaker 1: and short maturity. Wayly of black Rock, well, if.
Speaker 2: You look at the hedge fund positioning, absolutely a lot
Speaker 2: of the speculative positions went from short bombs to long bonds.
Speaker 2: But I would observe that from the end of the
Speaker 2: curve has done better than the back end of the curve,
Speaker 2: so mainly in response to kind of markets pricing in
Speaker 2: more cuts. But our concern for the back end of
Speaker 2: the curve, especially over a longer temp horizon, still stays,
Speaker 2: which is a higher fiscal trajectory, higher term premier which
Speaker 2: currently is still in the negative territory.
Speaker 1: And literally as I take this wayly of black rock
Speaker 1: there with a four point zero two four point zero
Speaker 1: three ten year yield. Literally we take this, folks. For
Speaker 1: those of you that know in New York City, they
Speaker 1: have a special bunker below home Depot where we tape
Speaker 1: all of my work. Also the surveillance caskets down there
Speaker 1: as well. Someday we'll be needing that. But the answer is,
Speaker 1: moments ago we saw three point nine nine percent on
Speaker 1: the ten year yield. That is remarkable. A single best
Speaker 1: idea of shout out to Bob Michael of JP Morgan
Speaker 1: and his team that have had that tendency. Others as well,
Speaker 1: David Rosenberg up in Toronto, but a special shout out
Speaker 1: to Ian Lincoln of BEMO Capital Markets who's just been
Speaker 1: absolutely brilliant on the movement of yield lower the ten
Speaker 1: year yield moments ago. Here Thursday, let me get the
Speaker 1: surveillance watch out you see, it's got Charlie Brown on it.
Speaker 1: Ten oh two am is where we see the three
Speaker 1: point nine nine percent yield. What's it going to do
Speaker 1: to your mortgage rate? The mortgage rate is something that
Speaker 1: FED looks at a lot of criticism. Cam Harvey at
Speaker 1: Duke University was really something that they heated and hisism
Speaker 1: of the FED. We've had generous time with a former
Speaker 1: vice chairman of the Federal Reserve System at Richard CLARIEDA. He,
Speaker 1: of course, of Columbia University and excuse me advising at PIMCO,
Speaker 1: and well, there's a lot to talk about. And what
Speaker 1: we talked about in the fedicides and what we talked
Speaker 1: about this morning was the difference everybody's happy in an
Speaker 1: agreement at the American Federal Reserve System, where at the
Speaker 1: Bank of England they argue five to four decision today,
Speaker 1: Richard CLARIEDA, on the descent of the Bank of England.
Speaker 3: Well, I will say that the Bank of England is
Speaker 3: certainly beginning with my good friend and mentor Mervin King
Speaker 3: thirty plus years ago. It was a point of pride
Speaker 3: that their culture did not discourage dissense. And indeed, I
Speaker 3: think there was one or two meetings when Mervin was
Speaker 3: out voted. In this case it was five to four.
Speaker 3: But when the chief economist votes it definitely it gets
Speaker 3: the headline. Sure, there are descents at the FED during
Speaker 3: my time, we had several meeting where there were three descents,
Speaker 3: but it is the case that in the post green
Speaker 3: spanning and era that you refer to or green span
Speaker 3: and then post green span descents among governors have been
Speaker 3: pretty rare on monetary policy. And that's an entire another
Speaker 3: show we could. I won't spend time talking about why
Speaker 3: that is.
Speaker 1: You may come back tomorrow, Okay, well, okay, Richard Clarita,
Speaker 1: maybe we'll get him for day three and do a
Speaker 1: hat trick of great economic perspective. Can't say enough about
Speaker 1: some of the distinguishing features of former Federal Reserve officials.
Speaker 1: Major shout out to Bill Dudley, who graced us with
Speaker 1: his presence for the FED Decides. Bill Dudley with that
Speaker 1: essay ten days ago and Bloomberg Opinion heated the FED
Speaker 1: should act. Now we hope you act. By subscribing to
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