1
00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:14,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, the single best idea.

2
00:00:14,600 --> 00:00:17,119
Speaker 1: It has been an extraordinary day. I want to start

3
00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:20,120
Speaker 1: with something I have never seen. I've been doing this

4
00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,880
Speaker 1: for four or five six years, and I've never ever

5
00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:26,000
Speaker 1: seen what we saw today. And as we tape this

6
00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,200
Speaker 1: single best idea at our world headquarters, I want to

7
00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:34,440
Speaker 1: make clear that there is speculation and rumor and uncertainty,

8
00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:36,720
Speaker 1: but I do think I can paint for those of

9
00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,000
Speaker 1: you across the nation and quite frankly, at worldwide, as

10
00:00:40,040 --> 00:00:43,440
Speaker 1: we see Russia in a prisoner swap reported by our

11
00:00:43,520 --> 00:00:49,199
Speaker 1: Jennifer Jacobs with allies including the United States. I've seen numbers,

12
00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:51,519
Speaker 1: thank you Moscow Times at twenty to thirty people to

13
00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,000
Speaker 1: telegraph as that statistic. I believe Jennifer Jacob has it

14
00:00:55,040 --> 00:01:00,640
Speaker 1: as well. The partition that occurred this morning between TV

15
00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:07,039
Speaker 1: and Frankly us to an extent reporting the rumors, the speculation,

16
00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:10,840
Speaker 1: the minimal facts that Jennifer Jacobs had in front of her,

17
00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:17,000
Speaker 1: and the newspapers in America which had a thundering silence.

18
00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:21,560
Speaker 1: And this was this nuance here of released or to

19
00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:26,319
Speaker 1: be released. And it really goes down to the nuance

20
00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:31,200
Speaker 1: the fears in the tension that you see within a

21
00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,160
Speaker 1: prisoner swap. I've never seen it like I saw it

22
00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:38,959
Speaker 1: on this Thursday in Russia and across Europe and America

23
00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:42,680
Speaker 1: as well. We had wonderful guests. I can't say enough

24
00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:46,600
Speaker 1: about it. What a generous conversation with Waylee on China

25
00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:50,400
Speaker 1: her stunning statistic that she looks for a three percent

26
00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,800
Speaker 1: handle she and Blackrock, I should say, look for a

27
00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,600
Speaker 1: three percent handle of economic growth at some point. That's

28
00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:01,560
Speaker 1: game changing for the Pacific rims say the least, but

29
00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:07,400
Speaker 1: also with price up and yield down between long maturity

30
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:11,480
Speaker 1: and short maturity. Wayly of black Rock, well, if.

31
00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:16,560
Speaker 2: You look at the hedge fund positioning, absolutely a lot

32
00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:21,800
Speaker 2: of the speculative positions went from short bombs to long bonds.

33
00:02:21,800 --> 00:02:24,560
Speaker 2: But I would observe that from the end of the

34
00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:28,160
Speaker 2: curve has done better than the back end of the curve,

35
00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,880
Speaker 2: so mainly in response to kind of markets pricing in

36
00:02:32,320 --> 00:02:35,400
Speaker 2: more cuts. But our concern for the back end of

37
00:02:35,440 --> 00:02:40,240
Speaker 2: the curve, especially over a longer temp horizon, still stays,

38
00:02:40,280 --> 00:02:44,359
Speaker 2: which is a higher fiscal trajectory, higher term premier which

39
00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:46,720
Speaker 2: currently is still in the negative territory.

40
00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,120
Speaker 1: And literally as I take this wayly of black rock

41
00:02:49,200 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 1: there with a four point zero two four point zero

42
00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,959
Speaker 1: three ten year yield. Literally we take this, folks. For

43
00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:56,880
Speaker 1: those of you that know in New York City, they

44
00:02:56,880 --> 00:03:00,840
Speaker 1: have a special bunker below home Depot where we tape

45
00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:04,560
Speaker 1: all of my work. Also the surveillance caskets down there

46
00:03:04,720 --> 00:03:08,080
Speaker 1: as well. Someday we'll be needing that. But the answer is,

47
00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:12,040
Speaker 1: moments ago we saw three point nine nine percent on

48
00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:16,400
Speaker 1: the ten year yield. That is remarkable. A single best

49
00:03:16,440 --> 00:03:18,760
Speaker 1: idea of shout out to Bob Michael of JP Morgan

50
00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:22,000
Speaker 1: and his team that have had that tendency. Others as well,

51
00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:25,640
Speaker 1: David Rosenberg up in Toronto, but a special shout out

52
00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:29,120
Speaker 1: to Ian Lincoln of BEMO Capital Markets who's just been

53
00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:34,920
Speaker 1: absolutely brilliant on the movement of yield lower the ten

54
00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:38,160
Speaker 1: year yield moments ago. Here Thursday, let me get the

55
00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:43,040
Speaker 1: surveillance watch out you see, it's got Charlie Brown on it.

56
00:03:43,240 --> 00:03:46,720
Speaker 1: Ten oh two am is where we see the three

57
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:48,720
Speaker 1: point nine nine percent yield. What's it going to do

58
00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,200
Speaker 1: to your mortgage rate? The mortgage rate is something that

59
00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,839
Speaker 1: FED looks at a lot of criticism. Cam Harvey at

60
00:03:56,400 --> 00:04:00,520
Speaker 1: Duke University was really something that they heated and hisism

61
00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:03,320
Speaker 1: of the FED. We've had generous time with a former

62
00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,640
Speaker 1: vice chairman of the Federal Reserve System at Richard CLARIEDA. He,

63
00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:12,160
Speaker 1: of course, of Columbia University and excuse me advising at PIMCO,

64
00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,000
Speaker 1: and well, there's a lot to talk about. And what

65
00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,200
Speaker 1: we talked about in the fedicides and what we talked

66
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:22,000
Speaker 1: about this morning was the difference everybody's happy in an

67
00:04:22,000 --> 00:04:25,320
Speaker 1: agreement at the American Federal Reserve System, where at the

68
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:29,159
Speaker 1: Bank of England they argue five to four decision today,

69
00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,920
Speaker 1: Richard CLARIEDA, on the descent of the Bank of England.

70
00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:35,600
Speaker 3: Well, I will say that the Bank of England is

71
00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:39,000
Speaker 3: certainly beginning with my good friend and mentor Mervin King

72
00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:42,400
Speaker 3: thirty plus years ago. It was a point of pride

73
00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:45,560
Speaker 3: that their culture did not discourage dissense. And indeed, I

74
00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,320
Speaker 3: think there was one or two meetings when Mervin was

75
00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,240
Speaker 3: out voted. In this case it was five to four.

76
00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:54,599
Speaker 3: But when the chief economist votes it definitely it gets

77
00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:58,480
Speaker 3: the headline. Sure, there are descents at the FED during

78
00:04:58,520 --> 00:05:01,640
Speaker 3: my time, we had several meeting where there were three descents,

79
00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:04,360
Speaker 3: but it is the case that in the post green

80
00:05:04,440 --> 00:05:08,120
Speaker 3: spanning and era that you refer to or green span

81
00:05:08,200 --> 00:05:11,360
Speaker 3: and then post green span descents among governors have been

82
00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:15,760
Speaker 3: pretty rare on monetary policy. And that's an entire another

83
00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,040
Speaker 3: show we could. I won't spend time talking about why

84
00:05:18,120 --> 00:05:18,440
Speaker 3: that is.

85
00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:22,400
Speaker 1: You may come back tomorrow, Okay, well, okay, Richard Clarita,

86
00:05:22,440 --> 00:05:24,120
Speaker 1: maybe we'll get him for day three and do a

87
00:05:24,160 --> 00:05:28,520
Speaker 1: hat trick of great economic perspective. Can't say enough about

88
00:05:28,560 --> 00:05:33,360
Speaker 1: some of the distinguishing features of former Federal Reserve officials.

89
00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:36,760
Speaker 1: Major shout out to Bill Dudley, who graced us with

90
00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,240
Speaker 1: his presence for the FED Decides. Bill Dudley with that

91
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:44,279
Speaker 1: essay ten days ago and Bloomberg Opinion heated the FED

92
00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:48,640
Speaker 1: should act. Now we hope you act. By subscribing to

93
00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:52,960
Speaker 1: YouTube Bloomberg Podcasts is the best way to get all

94
00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:56,159
Speaker 1: of our good conversation on Apple car Play and on

95
00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,880
Speaker 1: Android Auto as well, and on Ample podcasts. It's single

96
00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,320
Speaker 1: last idea