1 00:00:00,360 --> 00:00:13,920 Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. 2 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,560 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the UFC to seventy 3 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 2: eight preview. I'm Sean Zerilla, joined today by former professional 4 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:28,960 Speaker 2: MMA fighter Billy Ward. We're gonna take you through the 5 00:00:28,960 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 2: twelve fight card for UFC two seventy eight, featuring the 6 00:00:32,400 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 2: walterweight title bout between Kamarow Usman and Leon Edwards. 7 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 3: Some other sections. We're gonna touch on top underdogs. 8 00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:43,960 Speaker 2: Friday to night, which will be Mirad Dabashfieli against Jose Aldo. 9 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,479 Speaker 3: We're gonna talk about the comin event between Luke. 10 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: Rockhold and Paulo Costa, give you our favorite props and 11 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 2: then get you out of here with some DFS angles 12 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 2: and our best bets for Saturday's card. But let's go 13 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 2: to that ben the walterweight title bout six defense for 14 00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 2: Kamorrow Usman coming in around minus three to fifty on 15 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,760 Speaker 2: the money line Leanne Edwards plus two seventy five on 16 00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:07,400 Speaker 2: the comeback the over four and a half, he's juiced 17 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:10,440 Speaker 2: up to minus one sixty five. This is a rematch 18 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 2: from twenty fifteen. Usman won unanimously thirty twenty seven and 19 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:16,080 Speaker 2: twenty nine twenty eight. 20 00:01:16,120 --> 00:01:17,480 Speaker 3: On the other two scorecards. 21 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:20,800 Speaker 2: Dropped round one on two of the three scorecards, but 22 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:23,600 Speaker 2: ended up grappling Edwards on his way to a decision. 23 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,720 Speaker 2: Both have improved since then. Usman closed minus two fifty 24 00:01:26,760 --> 00:01:30,120 Speaker 2: the first time, again, sitting around minus three fifty this 25 00:01:30,280 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 2: time around. I've got a small angle on this fight. 26 00:01:32,680 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 2: I'm actually waiting for the money line to blow out 27 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 2: a little bit closer to fight time. Billy curious as 28 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 2: of Friday, where your thoughts are for the main event. 29 00:01:40,600 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, I'm somewhat concerned that Usman's just fallen 30 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 4: in love with his hands a little bit too much 31 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,120 Speaker 4: and doesn't make the smart choice and take him down. 32 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 5: But I can't I can't really. 33 00:01:48,800 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 4: See a path other than that towards Edwards having success here. 34 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 4: I think even if it's purely stand up, Edwards would 35 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 4: probably only be a slight favorite. So this isn't one 36 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 4: that I'm looking to back pre fight. I do like 37 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 4: your point. If it gets any more out of line 38 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,440 Speaker 4: than it is now, I might actually follow you on that. 39 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 4: I'm looking at some live stuff I could see if 40 00:02:04,680 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 4: Edwards lens round one or two standing and then Usman says, 41 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,359 Speaker 4: all right, let's make this a grappling match now and. 42 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 5: Then on a similar vein. 43 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:12,080 Speaker 4: You know, I always like with the heavy favorites like this, 44 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:13,639 Speaker 4: you can parlay it with over two and a half 45 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 4: over three and a half. I don't see Husman really 46 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:18,720 Speaker 4: extending himself for a finish early on. So you know, 47 00:02:18,800 --> 00:02:20,639 Speaker 4: some of those odds still aren't great on this one. 48 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:22,600 Speaker 4: It's still you know, minus one seventy five, minus two 49 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 4: hundred and that range. 50 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 5: So I don't love those, but yeah, I'm looking at 51 00:02:25,480 --> 00:02:26,079 Speaker 5: the live angle. 52 00:02:26,160 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 4: You know, we can see if Husman tries to stand 53 00:02:28,360 --> 00:02:30,360 Speaker 4: with him, and then if it doesn't work for him, 54 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 4: the odd shift a little bit. I would then expect 55 00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,160 Speaker 4: him to switch to a grappling heavy approach. And I 56 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 4: don't see average stuff in this takedowns. 57 00:02:36,320 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, So that's the question is how much the gap 58 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: has closed in the wrestling since the first fight. I 59 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 2: think Leon is still the better striker, the more technical striker, 60 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 2: but Usman has more output on the feet average is 61 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:50,160 Speaker 2: two additional strikes landed per minute. On top of that, 62 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:52,960 Speaker 2: certainly the better grappler has more power on the feet 63 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,519 Speaker 2: when they're standing, so he may land more damage even 64 00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:57,520 Speaker 2: if they're just standing at range. For twenty five minutes, 65 00:02:57,560 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 2: but I do expect him to grapple to try to 66 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 2: get into the clinch, to try to wrestle Leon and 67 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 2: get him to the mat. How much has Leon improved 68 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 2: his wrestling since their first way back in twenty fifteen, 69 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,239 Speaker 2: I actually think he's become a very dominant clinch fighter, 70 00:03:10,600 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 2: controls most people in the clinch, rated his clinch positions, 71 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 2: and particularly the one thing I would look out for 72 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 2: here is his elbow, which he uses when he exits 73 00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 2: the clinch. He has really vicious elbows when he's in closed. 74 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 2: I could definitely see him clipping Kamaru with one of 75 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,800 Speaker 2: those elbows as they're exiting a clinch position, as Kamara 76 00:03:28,880 --> 00:03:30,760 Speaker 2: is trying to enter a clinch position to put his 77 00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 2: back against the cage. So I expect a lot of 78 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 2: clinch fighting here. Ultimately, do not expect Usman to just 79 00:03:36,240 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 2: fall in love with his hands and try to strike 80 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 2: it out for twenty five minutes like he did in 81 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 2: his two fights with Colby Covington. 82 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 3: The one bet. 83 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 2: Where I showed value on pre fight was Leon by 84 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 2: decision at around plus nine hundred. Basically the way I 85 00:03:49,640 --> 00:03:53,000 Speaker 2: show value on that the market is indicating with his 86 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 2: decision line at plus one at plus one thousand plus 87 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:59,120 Speaker 2: nine hundred, and his knockout line around plus five to fifty. 88 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 2: They're telling you that he's going to win by finish 89 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:03,960 Speaker 2: around sixty percent of the time if he does win, 90 00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 2: and his decision forty percent of the time if he 91 00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:08,920 Speaker 2: does win. I think those should be reversed. I think 92 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 2: the decision should be sixty percent of his win equity, 93 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,400 Speaker 2: a finish closer to forty percent. So I do like 94 00:04:14,680 --> 00:04:17,200 Speaker 2: a very small sprinkle on his decision line around plus 95 00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 2: eight fifty plus nine hundred, projected that closer to plus 96 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:22,440 Speaker 2: five to fifty. And if that money line comes back 97 00:04:22,520 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 2: up closer to plus three hundred or higher, I think 98 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 2: I'll play that too. It was there on Thursday, it 99 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 2: ended up dipping down closer to way ends. I think 100 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,440 Speaker 2: as more parlay money comes in on Usmann closer to 101 00:04:31,480 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 2: fight time, you may see that peak price eventually. On Edwards, 102 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:36,560 Speaker 2: it may even get all the way up to plus 103 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:39,159 Speaker 2: three fifty, just based on the amount of parlay money 104 00:04:39,200 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 2: that I expect to be tied to the champions. So 105 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 2: Edwards on the money line, if it gets over plus 106 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 2: three hundred and definitely his decision props small around plus 107 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 2: eight to fifty would be my bets or my ways 108 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,039 Speaker 2: to approach the main event. Let's talk about our favorite 109 00:04:53,080 --> 00:04:56,040 Speaker 2: underdogs for Saturday Night. This may be my favorite section 110 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,720 Speaker 2: for today's podcast because I really like an angle on 111 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,440 Speaker 2: a here. But Billy, I'm curious which dog you're taking 112 00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:03,119 Speaker 2: a look at first. 113 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, I really like the exact same angle on a dog. 114 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:08,479 Speaker 4: I was bad and didn't get the email across. But 115 00:05:08,520 --> 00:05:11,120 Speaker 4: I'm also on mar Sine Tiberia at plus three hundred. 116 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 4: It's just such a massive step up in competition for 117 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,680 Speaker 4: Alexander Romanov, which I think you're going to get to. 118 00:05:16,080 --> 00:05:18,080 Speaker 4: You know, roman Office had dominant grappling in all of 119 00:05:18,080 --> 00:05:20,440 Speaker 4: his fights. I don't know that he's necessarily the better 120 00:05:20,480 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 4: grappler here, and then if he's not, what happens, and you. 121 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:24,320 Speaker 5: Know, it's plus three hundred. 122 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 4: I'm not saying that I necessarily think Romanofic should win, 123 00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 4: but plus three hundred is pretty long for. 124 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:30,479 Speaker 5: Him, and I just I don't know. 125 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,920 Speaker 4: I'm sorry, I'm not saying tiber should win, but yeah, no, 126 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:36,280 Speaker 4: I'm just not sure that Romanov is the better grappler here. 127 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 4: And that's been all he's done so far in his 128 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 4: UFC career. So if he can't take him down, or 129 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,640 Speaker 4: if he takes him down and it doesn't work and 130 00:05:42,680 --> 00:05:44,480 Speaker 4: we see a stand in trade fight. 131 00:05:44,760 --> 00:05:45,480 Speaker 5: These are heavyweights. 132 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 4: Nobody should be plus three hundred at heavyweight and you know, 133 00:05:48,080 --> 00:05:49,159 Speaker 4: strictly stand up front. 134 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:52,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, heavyweight, higher variance fight to begin with, So that 135 00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:56,480 Speaker 2: pushes everything closer to minus one ten tyberer. The better striking, 136 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 2: the better cardio, that pushes it closer to minus one ten. 137 00:06:00,000 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 2: And as you said, I'm not necessarily sure that Romanov 138 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 2: is even the better grappler here. I do think he 139 00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:07,720 Speaker 2: will be able to take tiber down early, but we've 140 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:09,240 Speaker 2: seen tiber I get put on his back in the 141 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:11,840 Speaker 2: past and he does not stay there for very long, 142 00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:14,280 Speaker 2: has very good jiu jitsu. I do not see him 143 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,880 Speaker 2: getting finished very easily unless he's tiring out later in 144 00:06:17,880 --> 00:06:20,839 Speaker 2: the fight. But going back to Cardio, Romanov got extended 145 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 2: one time Againstjuanaspino. He's a good grappler. He was losing 146 00:06:24,040 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 2: the striking on the feet and then it got dragged 147 00:06:25,960 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 2: around three he started tiring out, took the easy way out, 148 00:06:29,800 --> 00:06:32,839 Speaker 2: quitting after getting cup checked and calling it I believe 149 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 2: he went to a technical decision, which he won because 150 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:37,880 Speaker 2: he had secured the majority of the first two rounds 151 00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 2: on the judges scorecards, So bad look for Romanov and 152 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,560 Speaker 2: his cardio there. Definitely think tiber the better striker, has faced, 153 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 2: the better strength of schedule, better competition. Even the guys 154 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 2: that Romanov has faced aside from a Spino, have been 155 00:06:50,400 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 2: bottom of the barrel heavyweight grapplers at the UFC level, 156 00:06:54,080 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 2: and the discrepancy in grappling from one heavyweight to another 157 00:06:57,040 --> 00:07:00,040 Speaker 2: can be pretty massive relative to the other divisions. I 158 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 2: think Tibura definitely on the higher end of the grapplers 159 00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:05,919 Speaker 2: that you can hand Romanov for a test, so this 160 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 2: should be a close, in competitive fight. I do see 161 00:07:07,839 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 2: it going longer. I have another angle that I want 162 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:11,680 Speaker 2: to talk about when we get to our best bets. 163 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,200 Speaker 2: But in terms of a favorite underdog, I think Marsine 164 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,880 Speaker 2: Tibera at plus three hundred is a phenomenal play. I 165 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 2: like his decision line as well at plus six fifty 166 00:07:19,640 --> 00:07:21,680 Speaker 2: because if this fight does extend, I expect him to 167 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:25,200 Speaker 2: win more minutes down the stretch, So Marsine Tybura five 168 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:27,680 Speaker 2: after round one even could be an angle as well, 169 00:07:27,880 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 2: given the fact that I expect him to have the 170 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 2: cardio advantage and if you survives around one, I think 171 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 2: this is going to be very hairy for Romanov. So 172 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 2: ty Bura our favorite underdog for both myself and Billy 173 00:07:38,320 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 2: an angle that we really like. A lot of underdogs 174 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:43,120 Speaker 2: hit on the last card. Hopefully we can cash another 175 00:07:43,160 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 2: plus three hundred on Saturday. Let's go to our fight 176 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 2: of the night. This is a tremendous fight, a lot 177 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,480 Speaker 2: of talk about it on the internet this week. Jose 178 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:54,880 Speaker 2: Aldo and Morau Devashphili. This is the feature bout on 179 00:07:54,960 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 2: Saturday's card, so just before the comain and the main events. 180 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 2: This has been a hot debated matchup this week, Morob 181 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,760 Speaker 2: coming in at minus one thirty five, Jose Aldo the 182 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 2: legend at plus one point fifteen, the over two and 183 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 2: a half year juiced up to minus two to ten, 184 00:08:09,800 --> 00:08:12,840 Speaker 2: and I am on the Morob side of this fight 185 00:08:13,440 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 2: as a favorite. I think a lot of the talks 186 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 2: surrounding Jose Although historically is with his takedown defense, which 187 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 2: is phenomenal, particularly when he was at one forty five. 188 00:08:21,840 --> 00:08:24,040 Speaker 2: It's only ever been taken down more than once in 189 00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:27,480 Speaker 2: one UFC fight. Which was against Frankiegger way back the day. 190 00:08:27,960 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 2: He ended up winning that fight. But Morob is just 191 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 2: a different test than any other grappler that you could 192 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 2: basically hand Jose Aldough. He's a very unique fighter, more 193 00:08:36,559 --> 00:08:38,839 Speaker 2: of a pace and pressure fighter who's going to try 194 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 2: to cling on to al Though, going to try to 195 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 2: wrap him up, hold on, push him against the cage, 196 00:08:43,120 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 2: clinch him up and hit him with strikes in the 197 00:08:45,000 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 2: clinch and not let. 198 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:46,880 Speaker 3: Him go anywhere. 199 00:08:47,360 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 2: Footwork for Aldo, counter wrestling, counter punching, all things that 200 00:08:51,600 --> 00:08:55,440 Speaker 2: are big check marks in his favor against normal grapplers. 201 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:57,439 Speaker 3: Morob is not a normal grappler. 202 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,359 Speaker 2: He's not even a guy who's trying to get takedowns 203 00:08:59,600 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 2: and hold you down. He actually has very poor top control. 204 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 2: He just looks to rinse and repeat, tire you out, 205 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,160 Speaker 2: hang on to you, and then eventually get you back 206 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 2: to the fence and push you up against it. So 207 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 2: I expect him to land a lot of strikes in 208 00:09:11,080 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 2: the clinch, spend a lot of time at this arms 209 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,560 Speaker 2: wrapped around al Though, smothering him, slowing this fight down, 210 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 2: making it dirty, making it ugly. His tenacity, his pace, 211 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 2: and his pressure should eventually wear on the older fighter, 212 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 2: and I think Morob takes over more and more as 213 00:09:25,200 --> 00:09:28,280 Speaker 2: this extends later into the fight. This was a five 214 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,560 Speaker 2: round fight, I would be betting Morob to the max 215 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 2: at this price. In a three round fight, I'm a 216 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 2: little more tepid, just because although only needs to secure 217 00:09:36,360 --> 00:09:38,080 Speaker 2: two of the three rounds in order to steal a 218 00:09:38,120 --> 00:09:42,000 Speaker 2: decision here. But the cardio, particularly in the high elevation 219 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:43,400 Speaker 2: up in Utah, I think is going to be an 220 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:45,760 Speaker 2: advantage from Rob so Marob minus one thirty on the 221 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 2: money line like it up to about minus one fifty. Billy, 222 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 2: are you on Jose out there? You're joining me on 223 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 2: mirob the Machine? 224 00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 4: No, you know, we've seen enough line movement this week 225 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 4: on this fun where I'm actually pretty excited to Jose, 226 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 4: although at plus one twenty plus twenty five or so, 227 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 4: I'm really glad you mentioned the top control. You know, 228 00:10:02,400 --> 00:10:05,120 Speaker 4: if anyone who checks out UFC stats before making their picks, 229 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 4: you don't see a guy who averages over seven takedowns 230 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,520 Speaker 4: for fifteen minutes who's also good at keeping someone there. 231 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:12,520 Speaker 4: You can't get a second takedown until the guy gets 232 00:10:12,559 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 4: back up, And this is another one of those where 233 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 4: I'm trying to think about the way judges are scoring 234 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 4: fights now, and if Morob gets these you know, emptier, 235 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,440 Speaker 4: hollow takedowns where he takes Jose down, doesn't really do 236 00:10:22,480 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 4: anything with it, but then all the lands, a couple 237 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,000 Speaker 4: of nasty punches, lands, a leg kick, land, stuff like that. 238 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 4: Which way is that round'm going to go? Three or 239 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:30,719 Speaker 4: four years ago it would have been to the guy 240 00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 4: who got a takedown. I don't think that's the case, 241 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:34,800 Speaker 4: the way that things are scored now, and I know 242 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:36,920 Speaker 4: all like the judging. You know, people out there are 243 00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:39,719 Speaker 4: going to say, well, they didn't change the scoring system officially, no, 244 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 4: but the way it's being interpreted is a lot different 245 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:43,440 Speaker 4: than it was the last couple of years. 246 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 5: And I think that favors al though. 247 00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 4: You know, I wouldn't bet him at even you know, 248 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 4: even money, but up at plus one fifteen plus one twenty, 249 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 4: I think there's just enough of an angle where his 250 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 4: strikes are going to be rewarded a little bit more 251 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 4: happily than those takedowns that he doesn't really do much with. 252 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 4: And that's assuming that he can get those takedowns on Jose, 253 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,520 Speaker 4: although who, as you mentioned, never really gotten taken down 254 00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 4: more than once or twice in a fight, ninety percent 255 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 4: takedown defense, and he's only ever fought tom competition. Came 256 00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 4: into the UFC already as a champion, so it's not 257 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:12,160 Speaker 4: like he was fighting guys on the way up like that. 258 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 4: Ninety percent has came against the best of the best 259 00:11:14,240 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 4: at two different weight classes. 260 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 2: Oh, you make some valid points. I think there's merits 261 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 2: to both fighters. There's merits to making an argument for 262 00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 2: why you like either fight. Er Morob for me, just 263 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 2: a bit of a different animal. I think he's a 264 00:11:25,360 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 2: very unique fighter, and I think he's on his way 265 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,640 Speaker 2: eventually to title contention at the one hundred and thirty 266 00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 2: five pound division. Let's talk about the comine event between 267 00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:37,160 Speaker 2: Luke Rockhold and Pallo Costa. Costs the minus four hundred 268 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 2: on the money line. Rockhold coming in at plus three ten, 269 00:11:41,400 --> 00:11:43,440 Speaker 2: coming in off of a long layoff, he hasn't fought 270 00:11:43,520 --> 00:11:47,439 Speaker 2: since twenty nineteen, hasn't won about since twenty seventeen, knocked 271 00:11:47,440 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: out multiple times later in his career, and his chin 272 00:11:49,840 --> 00:11:52,600 Speaker 2: appears to be on the way out, or at least 273 00:11:52,600 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 2: it did before this long layoff, and I think that 274 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 2: is the primary talking point this week. Can Luke Rockhold 275 00:11:57,880 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 2: take a punch? Is he going to come back like 276 00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:03,320 Speaker 2: Alexander Gustafson did a few weeks back in London and 277 00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 2: just basically get knocked out immediately on the first exchange 278 00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 2: because this is not an easy matchup for him. They 279 00:12:08,640 --> 00:12:11,800 Speaker 2: could have given rock Hold a lot more easier matchups, 280 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,560 Speaker 2: a layup matchup, a layup win coming back from a 281 00:12:14,559 --> 00:12:17,120 Speaker 2: long layoff like this, and they basically gave him one 282 00:12:17,160 --> 00:12:19,960 Speaker 2: of the more difficult and durable fighters to hurt and 283 00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,520 Speaker 2: one of the guys who hits harder than anybody at 284 00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:24,880 Speaker 2: the one hundred and eighty five pound division. For me, 285 00:12:25,200 --> 00:12:27,319 Speaker 2: it's all about the under in this matchup. I think 286 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 2: this should be priced higher. You can get the under 287 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,079 Speaker 2: two and a half rounds at minus two to fifteen. 288 00:12:31,360 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 2: The fight to end inside the distance seemed like it 289 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 2: was deuced much more heavily, closer to minus three hundred 290 00:12:36,040 --> 00:12:38,599 Speaker 2: minus three fifties. So if that finish does occur in 291 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,040 Speaker 2: the final two and a half minutes of the fight, 292 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 2: we will lose our bet. But I think there's enough 293 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,240 Speaker 2: of a price discount relative to that prop on the 294 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,840 Speaker 2: under two and a half to make it worth taking 295 00:12:47,880 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 2: the discount on the under two and a half cost 296 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:55,320 Speaker 2: a bigger hitter rock holl Durability obviously concern, but for 297 00:12:55,520 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 2: rock Hold's side and the merit to playing him is 298 00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,880 Speaker 2: top control and position, because Costa is not good off 299 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 2: of his back when you're able to take him down, 300 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 2: He's a bit of a fish, and I could absolutely 301 00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 2: see rock Hold get landing one takedown early and finishing 302 00:13:09,360 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 2: this fight from top. So I think i've the fighter 303 00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:16,280 Speaker 2: certainly has win equity inside the distance. Costa should have 304 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:20,040 Speaker 2: knockout power lasting throughout the fight. I'm saying Costa by 305 00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,920 Speaker 2: second round TKO, but I wouldn't be surprised if rock 306 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,600 Speaker 2: Hold ends up stopping him from top. I also show 307 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 2: value Costa KO at minus one fifty I think is fine. 308 00:13:28,880 --> 00:13:31,440 Speaker 2: Rock Hold inside the distance at plus five point fifty 309 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:33,920 Speaker 2: I think is fine as well. If you're looking to 310 00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:36,640 Speaker 2: target some winning method props, Billy, are you with me 311 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:38,200 Speaker 2: on the under? How do you see this one playing 312 00:13:38,200 --> 00:13:40,040 Speaker 2: out and what could be a very violent affair? 313 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:42,080 Speaker 5: No, we're pretty spot on that. 314 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:43,360 Speaker 4: I was going to say, if you're going to play 315 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 4: rock Hold, I don't really see a reason to do 316 00:13:45,320 --> 00:13:48,320 Speaker 4: anything other than the inside the distance, as he pointed out, 317 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 4: like just the odds are getting on that are so 318 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 4: much higher. But really the debate for me has been 319 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 4: how much will we weighing ring rust versus how much 320 00:13:56,120 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 4: we think his chin is going to have improved in 321 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:01,199 Speaker 4: three plus years of not hit, not getting knocked out 322 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 4: at his age, I'm not really convinced that that time 323 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:06,640 Speaker 4: off is going to matter much. I don't think your 324 00:14:06,720 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 4: chain really gets that much better just by not getting hit. 325 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 4: I think you know it's never going to get better 326 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 4: than it is this moment, So you know the cost 327 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:16,840 Speaker 4: of by knockout costa inside the distance. Those are really 328 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 4: where I'm looking right now. Not a fight I really 329 00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 4: love from a betting standpoint, I'm kind of interested in it. 330 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,240 Speaker 4: But you know, jose Aldo and Maravushmili should be the 331 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:26,040 Speaker 4: comin event on this one. If we're all being honest 332 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 4: with each other. 333 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 2: Let's talk about our favorite props of the evening. Mine 334 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,360 Speaker 2: would be Sean Woodson from a variety of anger rolls 335 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:37,440 Speaker 2: going against Louis Sadonia, Sawdonia very bad Cardio again. Just 336 00:14:37,480 --> 00:14:40,360 Speaker 2: want to mention these fights are up at Elevation in 337 00:14:40,400 --> 00:14:43,200 Speaker 2: Salt Lake City in Utah. So if you have bad cardio, 338 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 2: it's just going to look even worse fighting at elevation. 339 00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,160 Speaker 2: And these guys who normally struggle down the stretch are 340 00:14:49,200 --> 00:14:51,360 Speaker 2: really going to struggle to make it the full fifteen minutes. 341 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,120 Speaker 2: Sadna struggles in low paz the fairs. He's an outside kickboxer. 342 00:14:55,520 --> 00:14:58,040 Speaker 2: He's going to be getting likely in a high volume 343 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:01,320 Speaker 2: affair with Sean Woodson doesn't hit particul hard, but Woodson 344 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:03,800 Speaker 2: is a five inch reach advantage, throws eleven or twelve 345 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 2: strikes per minute, very high volume, and Saldana is not 346 00:15:07,720 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 2: the type of guy who's going to take him down. 347 00:15:09,440 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: And even if Saldana does take him down, it's just 348 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:13,360 Speaker 2: gonna wear on his own gas tank and eventually tire 349 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:14,080 Speaker 2: him out. 350 00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 3: Late as well. 351 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 2: So Woodson inside the distance of plus one fifty five, 352 00:15:17,560 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 2: but in particular his round two prop at plus six 353 00:15:20,600 --> 00:15:23,640 Speaker 2: fifty and his round three prop at plus one thousand, 354 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 2: both of those at MGM. I think those are solid 355 00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 2: looks in terms of exact round props. Some donna should 356 00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:31,800 Speaker 2: have a good round one and then may completely fall 357 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 2: apart and will likely get finished in the second or 358 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 2: third round unless he ends up surviving to your decision. 359 00:15:36,840 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 2: But inside the distance around a third of a unit, 360 00:15:39,400 --> 00:15:41,520 Speaker 2: and then the round two, round three props each about 361 00:15:41,560 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 2: a tenth of a unit. Is how he would allocate 362 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,360 Speaker 2: risk at those numbers, like a solid way to maybe 363 00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:48,920 Speaker 2: risk a half a unit to win a unit unit 364 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:51,320 Speaker 2: and a half depending on how the fight plays out. Billy, 365 00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 2: where's your favorite fight from a prop perspective? 366 00:15:54,600 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, similar to your angle with the high 367 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:00,360 Speaker 4: altitude being rough on the fighters with worst cardio. Cisco 368 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,160 Speaker 4: Figuredo is fighting tomorrow. He's plus three seventy on the 369 00:16:04,160 --> 00:16:06,120 Speaker 4: money line just to win the fight, and if you 370 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:09,120 Speaker 4: think that's roughly efficient, his inside the distance prop would 371 00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 4: probably be about plus three seventy five or plus three eighty. 372 00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 4: He is not lasting fifteen minutes against anyone in Utah 373 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 4: and winning anything, so you can get him inside the 374 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 4: distances plus seven to fifty right now. It's not about 375 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 4: that I love. I actually don't think this one is 376 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,920 Speaker 4: likely to go his way against amer al Bosi, who's 377 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 4: looked really good in recent fights. But just from a 378 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:31,120 Speaker 4: mass standpoint, there's no way that his win probability by 379 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 4: decision is as high as these markets are telling us. 380 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:34,920 Speaker 5: Given how god awfuls. 381 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,800 Speaker 4: Cardio is and the fact that it's at elevation. So yeah, 382 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 4: plus seven to fifty on Figuredo, you know, point one 383 00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 4: point two unit bet with pretty big return is where 384 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 4: I'm looking. 385 00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 2: Yeah, those end up being some of my favorite batchs. 386 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 2: Just I don't really want this guy or think he 387 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 2: can win, but most of his win condition is X, 388 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 2: and they're telling you it's why you kind of just 389 00:16:53,120 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 2: have to bet those sometimes, like I did with Leon 390 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 2: Edwards by decision. I just think the win winning method 391 00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:02,320 Speaker 2: out location between the odds is a little bit off, 392 00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,400 Speaker 2: and sometimes you get fighters who are very very likely 393 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,480 Speaker 2: to win by submission, particularly early guys who are likely 394 00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:10,280 Speaker 2: to win in round one and then almost have no 395 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,359 Speaker 2: win condition after, where the price should be much closer 396 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,240 Speaker 2: to their money line than it actually is. You're getting 397 00:17:15,240 --> 00:17:17,840 Speaker 2: almost double the odds on Figuredo. Inside the distance, then 398 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 2: you are on his money line. Not a battle luck. 399 00:17:19,800 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 2: Certainly don't disagree, but actually probably look to bet al 400 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:25,560 Speaker 2: Bosi live after round one as well as a way 401 00:17:25,600 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 2: to maybe hedge out of. 402 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 3: That position after the fact. 403 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,200 Speaker 2: Even if Albosi's a big favorite after round one, I 404 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:32,600 Speaker 2: think he's well on his way to winning the fight. 405 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:35,840 Speaker 2: At that point, DFS angles for Saturday Slate. There's only 406 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:39,640 Speaker 2: twelve fights now, Moranda Maverick versus Shanna Young was canceled. 407 00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 2: Top prices on the board Tyson Paedro ninety five hundred, 408 00:17:42,600 --> 00:17:45,639 Speaker 2: Amro Bozi who we just mentioned ninety two hundred, Kamaro 409 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 2: Usman at ninety one hundred, and Alexander Romanov. Those are 410 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:53,239 Speaker 2: your Priders fighters priced above nine thousand. We already talk 411 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 2: about the fact that like Marcine Taibura, who's seventy two hundred, 412 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 2: Leon Edwards seventy one hundred to round out the main event, 413 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 2: and Billy, how are you differentiating between cash games and 414 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:05,880 Speaker 2: GPPs with just twelve fights on the card. 415 00:18:06,400 --> 00:18:09,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, interestingly enough, I think I'm less likely do different 416 00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,399 Speaker 4: shape in cash and GPPs because I don't think a 417 00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:13,520 Speaker 4: lot of people are going to have Loosman and Edwards 418 00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 4: in a GVP lineup, and that's a pretty common strategy 419 00:18:16,880 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 4: and cash and I could see that one making its 420 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 4: way to the optal if they go five rounds. 421 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:22,840 Speaker 5: There's only one five round fight, where a lot of. 422 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 4: The pay per views we've had recently have had two, 423 00:18:24,960 --> 00:18:26,680 Speaker 4: So I think that's going to push some ownership to 424 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 4: those guys, but the pairing of both of them won't. 425 00:18:29,400 --> 00:18:31,439 Speaker 4: And then I'm also looking and I'm gonna mention this 426 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 4: a little bit later in best Bet, but the flyway 427 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,600 Speaker 4: out between Alt Morano and Daniel da Silva, those guys 428 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 4: just have tremendous outputs, or at least what little we've seen 429 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,240 Speaker 4: of them, that actually I think a sneaky fight that 430 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,359 Speaker 4: you could stack where if those guys both land a 431 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 4: ton of strikes, they could make their way in. And 432 00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 4: once we're down to this twelve fight range, especially if 433 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 4: we were to hopefully not lose another one, that's when 434 00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:52,119 Speaker 4: I really want to start getting off the board with 435 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 4: some of those stacks. But yeah, outside of that, and 436 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,840 Speaker 4: men be super heavy on Tomorrow Loosman he scores all 437 00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 4: the points even when he wins by decision, just with 438 00:18:58,720 --> 00:19:01,719 Speaker 4: the volume of takedowns that he gets. I think if 439 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,920 Speaker 4: you're willing to, you know, as we've talked about, fade 440 00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,040 Speaker 4: romanoff against Tibera or even play Tiberra. If you're not 441 00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:09,879 Speaker 4: playing romanof Tiberia needs to be in your lineup just 442 00:19:09,920 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 4: because everyone is going to be on Roman off, so 443 00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 4: you're increasing that leverage a lot by going with the 444 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:16,040 Speaker 4: underdog there. 445 00:19:16,119 --> 00:19:17,119 Speaker 5: So there's some angles to this. 446 00:19:17,160 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 4: On twelve, Foight isn't terrible in terms of having to 447 00:19:20,080 --> 00:19:21,960 Speaker 4: work too hard to get unique, but it's on that 448 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,520 Speaker 4: borderline where I think using some of those weirdest strategies, 449 00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 4: leaving some salary on the table, playing some of those 450 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,640 Speaker 4: off the wall fighters like Figuredo, like Typerra could be interesting. 451 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:32,919 Speaker 4: Rock Old, if he wins, is likely to be inside 452 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:34,400 Speaker 4: the distance super cheap. 453 00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 5: I don't think a lot of people are going to be. 454 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:38,880 Speaker 2: On hand for GPPs Luke Rockold seventy five hundred, Leo 455 00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:42,119 Speaker 2: Santos seventy three hundred. Those are fighters very likely to 456 00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,159 Speaker 2: win inside the distance if they do win, and I 457 00:19:44,200 --> 00:19:46,760 Speaker 2: would imagine we'll be in the optimal lineups if they 458 00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,480 Speaker 2: do win. Choum Woods and I talked about from a 459 00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 2: proper perspective as well. Eighty five hundred lots of volume 460 00:19:51,480 --> 00:19:54,160 Speaker 2: and probably gets a second or third round stoppage bonus 461 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 2: as well on top of the volume, which should equal 462 00:19:57,200 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 2: out to a first round stoppage in terms of points 463 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:01,280 Speaker 2: with the volume that he puts up. 464 00:20:01,520 --> 00:20:02,520 Speaker 3: Let's go to our best. 465 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:05,600 Speaker 2: Bets for Saturday slate for UFC two seventy eight, and 466 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:08,639 Speaker 2: I'm just going to continue on with my Marcine tyber 467 00:20:08,800 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 2: Alexander Romanov analysis. My favorite bet in this fight, my 468 00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:14,919 Speaker 2: favorite bet on the card, in addition to the Tiberra 469 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:17,680 Speaker 2: money line, is just the over one and a half 470 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:21,280 Speaker 2: rounds at minus one seventy five. Neither guy a particularly 471 00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 2: big hitter for heavyweight. Both seem relatively durable, but I 472 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 2: don't really give either finishing upside, and particularly early, I 473 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:30,720 Speaker 2: think they would be below average if I had to 474 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 2: rate them out in terms of being finishers for heavyweights 475 00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,640 Speaker 2: because of how they match up in the grappling. Romanov 476 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:38,920 Speaker 2: is going to get his finishes from top position, getting 477 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:42,160 Speaker 2: the dominant positions. I don't really see Tibera letting him 478 00:20:42,200 --> 00:20:44,600 Speaker 2: get there. And it's not like Tybera is some huge 479 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:47,240 Speaker 2: hitter on the feet who's going to one punch Romanov 480 00:20:47,480 --> 00:20:49,439 Speaker 2: if he's able to keep this standing early, so I 481 00:20:49,440 --> 00:20:52,200 Speaker 2: think you definitely see a drawn out of fair probably 482 00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:54,159 Speaker 2: some grappling on the ground where they get tied up, 483 00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 2: maybe even some cage push, and a lot of minutes 484 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,480 Speaker 2: and seconds ticking off the clock, particularly early. I show 485 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,000 Speaker 2: value on the fight to go to the distance as 486 00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:05,680 Speaker 2: well at plus money just a little more tepid to 487 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 2: play that. As we talked about the cardio concerns for 488 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,639 Speaker 2: some guys in Utah up at elevation in Salt Lake City, 489 00:21:11,920 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 2: particularly guys like Alexander Romanov, could be very concerning. Could 490 00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 2: see him getting stopped late in the third round if 491 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 2: he's completely gassing out. So the over one and a 492 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,639 Speaker 2: half rounds minus one seventy five, Marcine Tibura at plus 493 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 2: three hundred and then also tiberro By decision for a 494 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:27,760 Speaker 2: sprinkle at plus six fifty. 495 00:21:27,960 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 3: Favorite fighting the card. Favorite bets on the card both 496 00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:32,000 Speaker 3: from a money line and a total perspective. 497 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 4: Billy, Yeah, I'm going to go with too, just real 498 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:35,959 Speaker 4: quick on the first one. 499 00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, I am Moover's Lucy Pudalova, who was as high 500 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 5: as like plus one fifteen earlier in the week. I 501 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:43,360 Speaker 5: think I'm still seeing a plus one oh five. 502 00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,600 Speaker 4: It's probably going to be gone soon. Money is pusher down. 503 00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:47,560 Speaker 4: This is a classic fight where if you can see 504 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 4: a plus in front of either of these women's names, 505 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:51,719 Speaker 4: you should probably just beat that side. 506 00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:53,439 Speaker 5: It's going to be a dirty decision. It's not going 507 00:21:53,520 --> 00:21:55,679 Speaker 5: to look like there's one clearly dominant fighter. 508 00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:57,480 Speaker 4: But with most of that being gone, the one I 509 00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 4: really wanted to talk about is the Victor Altimurano Dsilvo fight. 510 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:04,360 Speaker 4: I can't recall ever sing a flyweight flyweight fight that's 511 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 4: plus one eighty to go to a decision. And you 512 00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,000 Speaker 4: know Sean was talking about with bigger guys getting tired 513 00:22:09,240 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 4: a lot of times, if the big guys get tired, 514 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,879 Speaker 4: one guy lands a heavy punch knocks each other out. 515 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:14,760 Speaker 5: If flyweights get tired, they don't. 516 00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:16,480 Speaker 4: Have enough power or strength left to really put each 517 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 4: other out. There's not that much difference between the type 518 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,640 Speaker 4: of punch that a heavyweight can take rich to flyweight. 519 00:22:20,640 --> 00:22:23,720 Speaker 4: Our brains can only take so much impact, regardless of size. 520 00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:25,760 Speaker 4: So when we get these little guys, they both have 521 00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:26,680 Speaker 4: a ton of output. 522 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,920 Speaker 5: They're fighting at altitude. I don't think either of them 523 00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:30,199 Speaker 5: are going to be too familiar with that. 524 00:22:31,040 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 4: I just can't see a flyweight fight at plus one 525 00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 4: eighty to go to a decision and not take that. 526 00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't disagree with that at all. It's definitely 527 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:39,480 Speaker 2: a number I show value on as well. I kept 528 00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:43,479 Speaker 2: pushing the wing conditions for either fighter closer and closer 529 00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,439 Speaker 2: to a finish, and I still couldn't really get it 530 00:22:45,520 --> 00:22:47,399 Speaker 2: above a pick them. So getting close to plus one 531 00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:49,600 Speaker 2: forty something like that on the fight to go the 532 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,320 Speaker 2: distance plus one eighty, I believe it might be as 533 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,920 Speaker 2: high as will probably be a bet for me as well. 534 00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:56,119 Speaker 2: Certainly going to be sweaty though, with the way that 535 00:22:56,200 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 2: Dsilva fights, that'll do it for us. We're off next week. 536 00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 2: We will be back in early September. 537 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:03,160 Speaker 3: First week. 538 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:06,679 Speaker 2: It's September for UFC Paris as we head into football season. 539 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 2: For Billy Warard, I'm Sean Zarrillo. Best of luck on 540 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 2: your bets on Saturday. We'll see you next time.