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Speaker 3: Welcome in episode one fourteen, our final regular season gambling
Speaker 3: show of the year, and before we do.
Speaker 4: Yeah we did last week and our season records.
Speaker 3: Now is of course the time to remind everyone how
Speaker 3: dominant we all were as a collective. If you guys
Speaker 3: took my preseason gambling advice. Now, I've done this on
Speaker 3: a few shows, but it's making me feel better about life,
Speaker 3: so I'm doing it again. We gave you Jacksonville over
Speaker 3: six and a half, cash it, Kent City over ten
Speaker 3: and a half, cash it, San Francisco over nine and
Speaker 3: a half, cash it Tampa under eleven and a half.
Speaker 3: We called that our bet of the year, cash it.
Speaker 3: So that's four winners. New England, we gave you under
Speaker 3: eight and a half, Gonna come down to the wire.
Speaker 3: They're sitting at eight wins. We'll see Indy, we gave
Speaker 3: you over nine and a half, no good. Giants, we
Speaker 3: gave you over seven and a half, no good. And
Speaker 3: then Baltimore over over ten and a half. Gonna come
Speaker 3: down to the wire. Not looking great though, because they're underdogs.
Speaker 3: So we have four wins locked in, two losses locked in,
Speaker 3: and two that are gonna come down to Week seventeen.
Speaker 4: We also gave you Seattle, the Jets, Atlanta and New
Speaker 4: England parlay.
Speaker 3: Do all missed the playoffs might at even money, Gonna
Speaker 3: come down to the wire.
Speaker 4: Seattle and New England so love.
Speaker 3: We gave you Cleveland to miss the playoffs minus won
Speaker 3: seventy locked in for a month, Denver to missed the
Speaker 3: playoffs at plus money locked in forever. New England missed
Speaker 3: the playoffs at minus two hundred, Gonna come down to
Speaker 3: the wire. And then our long shot parlay of division
Speaker 3: winners did not come through thanks to the Colts.
Speaker 4: And then we have just sitting out there like.
Speaker 3: My fourth child, my fifty to one one dime ticket
Speaker 3: on a Chiefs Niners super Bowl exacta. That's college tuition
Speaker 3: for more than a year for your wonderful sister, that
Speaker 3: tearing back from colleges right now. Or that's a hell
Speaker 3: of a hell of a weekend for your pops in Vegas.
Speaker 3: See if we can flip that from one year college
Speaker 3: tuition to four years college tuition.
Speaker 4: We'll see.
Speaker 3: But that ticket is sitting there in a lock box
Speaker 3: in my heart and on a betting app not to
Speaker 3: be named. So that was, you know, preseason, just crushing
Speaker 3: the world week two week demons has been you know,
Speaker 3: it's been a bit of a struggle. So last week,
Speaker 3: we gave you Miami plus two and a half is
Speaker 3: the right move. They lost by two. That's a winner.
Speaker 4: Got a little lucky.
Speaker 3: We're gonna admit they were down nine. We gave you
Speaker 3: Arizona plus three and a half. All of a sudden
Speaker 3: didn't kick off. They're like, we're starting David blow and
Speaker 3: there were six point dogs, but it covered anyway. I
Speaker 3: told you Desmond Ritter should not be trusted to be favored.
Speaker 3: But that's where the good fortune kind of ended. We
Speaker 3: told you which San Francisco minus ten that they'd only
Speaker 3: need fourteen points to cover that.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think.
Speaker 3: They scored somewhere in the thirties and they didn't.
Speaker 2: Cover thirty seven forty or something like that.
Speaker 4: It wasn't great. You know, it wasn't great. Thirty seven
Speaker 4: thirty four.
Speaker 3: Maybe it was the playoffs four team, Oh that we gave.
Speaker 3: We gave you Minnesota plus three and a half. They
Speaker 3: lost by roughly fifty Would Minnesota plus thirty five have
Speaker 3: covered that game?
Speaker 4: Let me check? I was that game forty one to three?
Speaker 2: Was it?
Speaker 3: Whatever it was, it wasn't good. And then of course,
Speaker 3: as we discussed on yesterday's show, Uh, we also had
Speaker 3: Cincinnati Buffalo and we we covered that quite a bit
Speaker 3: on Thursday's pod, everything surrounding Tom Hamlin. But that's obviously
Speaker 3: we're just that game is no action on all fronts.
Speaker 3: So that was a two and two week. Oh they
Speaker 3: lost forty one seventeen, so plus thirty five would have
Speaker 3: covered for the Vikings, but plus three and a.
Speaker 4: Half did not.
Speaker 3: So that puts our record for the season at a
Speaker 3: pitifull thirty nine, forty five and two are right move
Speaker 3: at six and eleve we typically only pick five games
Speaker 3: a week. We are six games under five hundred, demons,
Speaker 3: all now hand the rings to you for a moment.
Speaker 5: Yes, so I've got a little proposition for you. Well,
Speaker 5: the good news is, well, the good news and the
Speaker 5: bad news. Sorry, you cannot finish the regular season above
Speaker 5: five hundred, even with a five and oh week.
Speaker 3: Yeah that's the math that I was just realizing. Six
Speaker 3: games under five and oh can't get there.
Speaker 4: Uh huh.
Speaker 2: But the good news is you are sixteen to nine
Speaker 2: in divisional games.
Speaker 3: Really sixty you know, some small say those are the
Speaker 3: hardest games to pick, the divisional contest, And I'm.
Speaker 4: Sixty four ats and divisional games.
Speaker 5: Okay, go ahead, all right, So luckily, luckily, we have
Speaker 5: sixteen divisional games this week, all divisional games.
Speaker 4: The final weekend.
Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, if you keep up that pace, you could
Speaker 2: end up over five hundred.
Speaker 4: Uh huh.
Speaker 2: Here is my final offer of the regular season.
Speaker 4: Oh, an early show offer. Yeah, we usually save this
Speaker 4: for the very end.
Speaker 5: You bet every game for a chance to finish over
Speaker 5: five hundred.
Speaker 2: Do you accept this offer? All right?
Speaker 3: This listen, the theme of this show has been responsible gambling.
Speaker 3: You have learned some hard lessons about responsible gambling. We
Speaker 3: have talked to the audience about how every week you've
Speaker 3: got to put the games into different buckets. Your be carefuls,
Speaker 3: your stay aways, you're perfectly priced, and then your actual bets.
Speaker 3: There is no week that exemplifies the necessity of sticking
Speaker 3: to a responsible gambling strategy like Week eighteen, when you
Speaker 3: have backups in the game, when you have teams pulling
Speaker 3: their starters without saying when you have one team that's
Speaker 3: playing hard but then sees that the only reason they
Speaker 3: were playing hard was let me give you an example.
Speaker 3: Eagles are playing the Giants and the Cowboys are playing Washington.
Speaker 3: The Cowboys got to play hard. They could be the
Speaker 3: one seed, they could win the division. But then they
Speaker 3: see at halftime of these simultaneous games the Eagles are
Speaker 3: up twenty. They're like, oh, well they're not going to lose.
Speaker 3: We're now locked into the five. We can pull our starters.
Speaker 3: It is the hardest week to handicap. It would be
Speaker 3: the most ridiculous week to bet all of the games
Speaker 3: on the sling. However, I have a streak.
Speaker 4: On the line.
Speaker 3: Since I've been on television, I have never finished a
Speaker 3: year below five hundred. Now again, the smart thing would
Speaker 3: be stick with my five games, go three and two,
Speaker 3: finish a few games below five hundred, take my medicine.
Speaker 4: But I am not to take my medicine type. So
Speaker 4: here's what I'm going to do.
Speaker 3: I don't feel comfortable really discussing or gambling on the
Speaker 3: games involving the Bills and the Bengals. I think it's
Speaker 3: kind of poor form, especially with as we're recording this
Speaker 3: still so much unknown about DeMar and then from the
Speaker 3: Bengals perspective about what their future schedule is going to be.
Speaker 3: So let's just take them out of the running. Bengals
Speaker 3: Ravens and Bengals Patriots.
Speaker 4: Take that out.
Speaker 3: That leaves us with fourteen games. If you revise the
Speaker 3: offer to fourteen games, I will accept it.
Speaker 4: Will you revise the.
Speaker 3: Offer fourteen all the games except for the Bills in
Speaker 3: the Bengals game.
Speaker 4: Can that be the offer?
Speaker 2: Of course?
Speaker 4: Okay, then I accept it.
Speaker 3: For the record, if my math is corrected, six games
Speaker 3: under five hundred, I would need to go ten and
Speaker 3: four to be five hundred, and a crackling hot eleven
Speaker 3: and three to finish above five hundred.
Speaker 4: We can do it.
Speaker 3: So these are all knicks picks. There are no stayaways,
Speaker 3: there are no be carefuls, there are no perfectly priced
Speaker 3: We're doing fourteen picks today. We're doing them all. I
Speaker 3: do have a few that I like more than others,
Speaker 3: and I will let the audience know what those few are, okay,
Speaker 3: or we will go somewhat in chronological order, but not exactly.
Speaker 3: We'll start with Saturday's games. Kansas City at Vegas. Kansas
Speaker 3: City minus nine and a half, all right at Vegas
Speaker 3: for the second straight year. Kansas City is the first
Speaker 3: game of Week eighteen.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 3: Kansas City, also, if you guys have noticed, has not
Speaker 3: been great at covering spreads, particularly big spreads. Vegas, on
Speaker 3: the other hand, looked awesome last week.
Speaker 4: Ah, I have been.
Speaker 3: Pretty smart on not including Kansas City as a big
Speaker 3: favorite throughout these picks.
Speaker 4: With that set, I think the Raiders.
Speaker 3: Another double digit blown lead last week, they can see
Speaker 3: the end of.
Speaker 4: Their season on the horizon.
Speaker 3: Last week, they went into that game technically still alive
Speaker 3: for the playoffs. As unlikely as it seemed and as
Speaker 3: odd as it was that they were starting stile, I
Speaker 3: think this is a game the Raiders play to stay healthy.
Speaker 4: Get into the offseason.
Speaker 3: There's nothing a player hates more than getting dinged in
Speaker 3: the final game of the year, to where instead of
Speaker 3: being able to go to a warm location for their vacation,
Speaker 3: they have to stay at the facility in rehab.
Speaker 4: The Chiefs, on the other.
Speaker 3: Hand, need to put an impressive performance together before they
Speaker 3: have appears right now to be the bye and time off.
Speaker 4: The Chiefs are going to lay it on the Raiders.
Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes I don't think he's gonna get there, but
Speaker 3: he's four hundred and twenty yards away from the all
Speaker 3: time single season passing record. Travis Kelcey has not scored
Speaker 3: a touchdown in five weeks, but Davante had two touchdown
Speaker 3: to catch his last week, so Davante is now up
Speaker 3: by two, so Travis Kelcey can try to at least
Speaker 3: tie Devonte Adams. He has three touchdown receptions.
Speaker 4: Which I think he did last Searonne.
Speaker 3: He's done this year. He was either against the charge
Speaker 3: of the Raiders regardless. I think the Chiefs put it
Speaker 3: on the Raiders offensively and defensively. I think Stidham goes
Speaker 3: back to the player he was for the first five
Speaker 3: years of his career, not the player he was in
Speaker 3: that miraculous game against the Niners. All right, so Chiefs
Speaker 3: laying nine and a half. Now the Saturday night name.
Speaker 4: Jacksonville's a six point favorite at Tennessee.
Speaker 3: So when I was going through this de Monsey, everything screamed, Oh, Tennessee.
Speaker 3: There's a lot of reasons to go with Tennessee. You
Speaker 3: have a few of them. Go ahead, I'll I'll let
Speaker 3: you tell me some of the reasons to pick Tennessee.
Speaker 2: Well, this is a classic Mike Rabill cover. Yeah.
Speaker 5: Uh, Tennessee's obviously all right, Yeah, Tennessee's coming off of
Speaker 5: a bunch of rests.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and he covers seventy percent of his games as
Speaker 2: an underdog.
Speaker 3: Okay, that's all true. And Tennessee's been awful for more
Speaker 3: than a month. Right, they're starting Josh Dobbs Jacksonville. For
Speaker 3: both teams, it's to win in your in scenario, I
Speaker 3: understand that Jacksonville actually technically could lose, and if Pittsburgh,
Speaker 3: New England and Miami all lose, Jacksonville gets the wild
Speaker 3: card and there's two AFC South playoff teams, So Jacksonville
Speaker 3: has a slim change of making the playoffs even with
Speaker 3: a loss, but the winner gets the four and it's
Speaker 3: almost more likely and Tennessee loses, they're done.
Speaker 4: No matter what, all of.
Speaker 3: My smart gambling tendency say, take Tennessee verybele at least
Speaker 3: is going to keep it close.
Speaker 4: And I was ready to put in Tennessee.
Speaker 3: And then I thought of that, and I said, if
Speaker 3: one thing this show has gotten right this year, it's
Speaker 3: our faith in the Prince that was promised.
Speaker 4: And the only reason that our record.
Speaker 3: Isn't better is because you assholes made me stop betting
Speaker 3: on it right when they were about to go on
Speaker 3: their winning streak. You guys put a ban on me,
Speaker 3: and because of that, I'm one in six betting on
Speaker 3: the Jags.
Speaker 4: Well, the ban has been lifted. I have not taken
Speaker 4: full advantage of it the way I should have. And
Speaker 4: the Jags minus.
Speaker 3: Six, the Jags which brought your worst gambling moment of
Speaker 3: the year, the overtime game against Dallas by winning the Jags,
Speaker 3: which hurt my feelings so many times this year.
Speaker 4: No, I'm simply saying.
Speaker 3: We have had a tortured history with the Jags this
Speaker 3: year when we shouldn't have. I should have simply ignored
Speaker 3: you guys when you guys were telling me they're no good.
Speaker 3: He's not a prince, all these things. Jags minus six.
Speaker 2: We're not Chiefs and Jags so far? What could go roll?
Speaker 4: What could go they?
Speaker 3: I've been right about the Chiefs all year. I've been
Speaker 3: right about the Jags all year, and my most important
Speaker 3: weekend of the year, I'm not abandoning them. Now to Sunday,
Speaker 3: Atlanta minus four against Tampa Bay. So I understand last
Speaker 3: week I said, how can did you ever lay three
Speaker 3: points with Desmond Ridder?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: And I took three and a half with the terrible
Speaker 3: Cardinals and ended up being David Blough purely on the
Speaker 3: belief of how can you lay points with Desmond Ritter?
Speaker 4: But this is where Week eighteen is tricky.
Speaker 2: Okay, that's a really nasty line.
Speaker 3: Well, Tampa is claiming they are going to play their starters.
Speaker 4: I don't believe them.
Speaker 3: I think Brady's gonna play a series or two and
Speaker 3: then be pulled for Trask or Gabbert, whomever their backup
Speaker 3: quarterback's going to be.
Speaker 4: I think Evans will be pulled.
Speaker 3: I think all of their key players are coming out
Speaker 3: of this game, and usually even when you pull your
Speaker 3: key guys, you leave in your front line offensive lineman.
Speaker 3: But some of their offensive linemen are dealing with injuries.
Speaker 3: I think those guys will be pulled. So I believe
Speaker 3: Atlanta they're running attack and the fact that Tampa is
Speaker 3: locked into the four seed is going to roll over
Speaker 3: in this game. So I will lay the four points
Speaker 3: with the Atlanta Falcons.
Speaker 5: That might have been the craziest like thought process that
Speaker 5: you'd explain to why. I mean, you're just banking on
Speaker 5: that happening, Like.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I am banking on that happening. That is correct,
Speaker 3: and I understand that I'm betting that right now.
Speaker 2: It does.
Speaker 4: It's a lot of favorites, it would appear. I get that.
Speaker 3: I don't love that it's this many favorites to start with.
Speaker 3: We'll get to some underdogs later. However, it should be
Speaker 3: go ahead.
Speaker 2: You are three to zero betting against Tom Brady this year.
Speaker 3: Well, they listen, Tampa's been the worst covering team in
Speaker 3: the league because Vegas has overvalued them throughout the season.
Speaker 3: But Atlanta, I believe he's gonna play hard and play
Speaker 3: all their guys. Tampa is claiming they're going to play
Speaker 3: their guys, I don't believe them.
Speaker 4: Atlanta minus four.
Speaker 3: Next another favorite, Minnesota minus seven and a half at Chicago.
Speaker 3: So the logic on this you saw Justin Field's not playing.
Speaker 3: Justin Field's not.
Speaker 4: Playing in this game, which kind of sucks for him.
Speaker 3: Because he is what record was yep, about sixty yards
Speaker 3: away from breaking Lamar Jackson's single season quarterback rushing record.
Speaker 4: He can't do it, though. He can't do it because
Speaker 4: he's not playing.
Speaker 2: Wait, who'd you say he's not playing Justin Fields?
Speaker 4: What? Ad Ice? Maybe?
Speaker 3: Oh Justin Field? I thought you said Justin Jefferson. No,
Speaker 3: Justin Field is not playing. He's not playing, so he
Speaker 3: can't break Lamar Jackson's single season rushing record. Minnesota is
Speaker 3: coming off a terrible performance. They could get the two seed,
Speaker 3: but they won't. They are essentially locked into the three.
Speaker 3: Now is there a piece of me that otherwise would
Speaker 3: be concerned about Minnesota?
Speaker 4: Remember what I said earlier?
Speaker 3: I said you've got to be careful in Week eighteen
Speaker 3: that the a team, you lay a lot of points
Speaker 3: with them, and then at halftime they're like, wait, we're
Speaker 3: playing for nothing. If the Niners win against the Rams
Speaker 3: or against the Cardinals, pardon me, which they will. Minnesota's
Speaker 3: playing for nothing. They're the three seeds. However, the Vikings
Speaker 3: game is at one o'clock. The Niners game is at
Speaker 3: four thirty, so the Vikings will literally not know anything
Speaker 3: about the Niners result until that game until they're done,
Speaker 3: so they will play their entire game believing we're alive
Speaker 3: for the two we have to win and we have
Speaker 3: to have San Francisco lose. San Francisco will kick off
Speaker 3: when their game is over, so that incentivizes the Vikings
Speaker 3: to play hard. The fact that they're coming off their
Speaker 3: worst game of the season.
Speaker 2: Couldn't the players think about it just like you think
Speaker 2: about it? Though?
Speaker 4: What do you mean?
Speaker 5: Like Minnesota knows like we could win, but like, what
Speaker 5: are the chances of San Francisco losing Arizona?
Speaker 4: Well, yes, but here's that. You're right.
Speaker 3: The players can think about it like that, but the
Speaker 3: coaches won't. And the coaches, like I feel like football
Speaker 3: players win, they're in the game, have to play hard
Speaker 3: because of the dangers around.
Speaker 4: Right, what happens if the coaches pull players.
Speaker 3: The coaches aren't gonna pull their guys, especially because they
Speaker 3: can't get the bye so they need to have some
Speaker 3: type of good feeling momentum going into their playoff game,
Speaker 3: which is coming up in a week after this game
Speaker 3: against the Giants.
Speaker 4: Now, let's go to Chicago.
Speaker 3: Chicago alive for the number one pick if they lose,
Speaker 3: and you might say, well, Houston's not gonna win. We're
Speaker 3: gonna talk about that game in a moment. Houston's playing Indy.
Speaker 3: They of course could win because anyone could beat Indy,
Speaker 3: so like that, it's on the board. Conversely, if Chicago
Speaker 3: were to win, they go from but potentially they could
Speaker 3: lose the number two pick because they're three and thirteen.
Speaker 3: Arizona and Denver are both four and twelve, so Chicago
Speaker 3: wants to lose.
Speaker 4: I would love this game so much more at seven.
Speaker 3: And I will tell you right now to the betting public,
Speaker 3: if you're when we're doing this is seven and a half.
Speaker 3: This is a game I would wait until Sunday morning.
Speaker 3: If the line moves against you and goes to eight,
Speaker 3: no worries. But if it moves for you and goes
Speaker 3: to seven, that is a huge benefit. But I think
Speaker 3: Minnesota plays a good game. I think Minnesota plays motivated.
Speaker 3: I think Chicago actively wants to lose and is not
Speaker 3: starting justin fields for all those reasons, all lay seven
Speaker 3: and a half with Minnesota and now another favorite. We're
Speaker 3: getting to the underdog shortly.
Speaker 4: I promise.
Speaker 3: Indy laying two and a half against Houston. So this
Speaker 3: right here is one of the oddest.
Speaker 4: Game of the week.
Speaker 3: And here's why Indy is triple incentivized to lose. Okay,
Speaker 3: number one is there, four, eleven, and one. With a win,
Speaker 3: they could fall out of the top five of the
Speaker 3: draft and end up drafting six. With a loss, theoretically
Speaker 3: they could be drafting as high as three. Probably they'd
Speaker 3: be drafting four or five. Okay, But more importantly, with
Speaker 3: a loss, Houston, their divisional rival, would lose the number
Speaker 3: one pick. Assuming Chicago loses, Houston would with a win,
Speaker 3: would go to the number two pick. So if you're Indy, okay,
Speaker 3: you really want to throw this game. You prevent Bryce
Speaker 3: Young from growing up in your division. You screw Houston,
Speaker 3: you help your draft pick. So I'm making all the
Speaker 3: case and Houston plays hard, they're just no good and
Speaker 3: I'm making all the case for taking Houston plus the points.
Speaker 3: So why does it say on the screen Indie minus
Speaker 3: two and a half. Let me tell you, because if
Speaker 3: we know anything about Jeff's Saturday that the one time
Speaker 3: he's likely to win is when they want to lose.
Speaker 3: And I also believe Houston will be telling Lovey Smith
Speaker 3: that winning this game is not an option. Figure out
Speaker 3: a way to lose this. This is such a fascinating
Speaker 3: spot where one day there is going to be an
Speaker 3: NFL team that just says league integrity be damned.
Speaker 4: And in a spot like this, let's how the quarterback
Speaker 4: though picks.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it takes the opening kickoff, runs out in the
Speaker 3: back of the end zone, self safeties, just makes it blatant.
Speaker 3: We are get as soon as they're trailing in the game,
Speaker 3: takes knees.
Speaker 4: The rest of the way just says screw it. Well,
Speaker 4: the league would kill them, but it's the one day
Speaker 4: it'll happen.
Speaker 3: I don't think that's this week, but I do think
Speaker 3: Indy screws up and the Jeff Saturday era ends with
Speaker 3: a flourish of a win that puts the number one
Speaker 3: pick in their divisional rivals hands and knocks them out
Speaker 3: of the top five of the draft. Indie minus two
Speaker 3: and a half next Miami catching one against.
Speaker 4: The Jets are first dog.
Speaker 3: So this is in a normal week when I wasn't
Speaker 3: doing everything I possibly could do to get above five hundred,
Speaker 3: this would be an obvious stay away. Miami's lost five
Speaker 3: in a row and we don't know who their quarterback is, right,
Speaker 3: I think Teddy Bridgewater is gonna play. Teddy Bridgewater's injury.
Speaker 3: Yes it's on his throwing hand, but it is a
Speaker 3: dislocated pinky. Miami has to win, and if they win,
Speaker 3: I think they'll make the playoffs because I don't think
Speaker 3: the Patriots are beating the Bills, so Miami, this would
Speaker 3: prevent an all time collapse from them eight and three
Speaker 3: to out of the playoffs.
Speaker 4: The Jets, on the other.
Speaker 3: Hand, have been bad for two and a half months, okay,
Speaker 3: since beating the Dolphins forty to seventeen. Listen, I'm going
Speaker 3: to go through their whole schedule. Started started the year
Speaker 3: losing the Ravens. So what then got very lucky against
Speaker 3: the Browns. Remember that was the game Nick Chubb didn't
Speaker 3: go down or Kareem Hunt didn't go down, whatever it was.
Speaker 3: They were down thirteen in the final two minutes and
Speaker 3: won the game. They beat the Browns thirty one to thirty.
Speaker 3: They then got crushed by the Bengals, who were at
Speaker 3: the time going two. They then beat the Steelers annihilated
Speaker 3: the Dolphins in the first game the Dolphins had without Tua.
Speaker 3: That was the game where Teddy started, got hurt on
Speaker 3: the first play and they had to go to the
Speaker 3: guy who might be starting this week, the third string quarterback,
Speaker 3: Skyler's thank you, I forgot his name, Skyler Thompson. The
Speaker 3: next week they beat the Packers. The next week they
Speaker 3: beat the Broncos back when people thought that meant something.
Speaker 3: Since then, the Patriots beat him. Then they beat the
Speaker 3: Bills in one of the best wins anybody's had all
Speaker 3: year since that Bill's win, the Patriot to beat him
Speaker 3: again in a game that was three to three until
Speaker 3: the final punt, remember, and then the punt return. They
Speaker 3: beat the Bears, who haven't won in three months. They
Speaker 3: then lost to the Bills, lost to the Lions, lost
Speaker 3: to the print that was promised, got crushed by the Seahawks,
Speaker 3: oh I left out, lost to the Vikings as well.
Speaker 3: They have lost five in a row. They have scored
Speaker 3: in their last four games twelve, seventeen, three, and six.
Speaker 3: This is a dead team walking that is now officially
Speaker 3: eliminated from the playoffs. Last week, they were still alive
Speaker 3: and you know what they did, scored six points against
Speaker 3: a terrible Seattle defense. Miami doesn't need great quarterback play
Speaker 3: to win this game. Miami's playoff hopes are alive.
Speaker 2: So what about the name Mike Glennon.
Speaker 5: I think the Dolphins might have signed him this week,
Speaker 5: and that might be who you're putting your forte.
Speaker 4: Zawyer's the thing.
Speaker 3: Mike Glennon was signed to be a backup, and now
Speaker 3: Miami has had a bunch of quarterbacks injured. I understand that.
Speaker 3: I said they don't need great quarterback play. Miami plus one.
Speaker 4: Is the pick.
Speaker 3: Lastly, for this segment, Carolina getting three and a half
Speaker 3: at New Orleans. All right, you have some information here
Speaker 3: that I didn't know about about my history in New Orleans.
Speaker 5: Go ahead, you bet against No more than any team
Speaker 5: other others would.
Speaker 4: Be short for New Orleans.
Speaker 3: But go ahead, I bet against New Orleans. Demands not
Speaker 3: having a sharp at.
Speaker 2: Shit time to fade yourself.
Speaker 3: So here's the deal. It's like no New Orleans. Yeah
Speaker 3: in oh for New Orleans. That's in all caps that's
Speaker 3: they're trying to signal to you. It's shorthand for the team,
Speaker 3: just so you know. When it says car I'm not
Speaker 3: actually betting on a car it's short for Carolina.
Speaker 4: So here's the deal.
Speaker 3: New Orleans hot right now, they've won four in a row.
Speaker 3: Carolina just got devastated last week, a chance to win
Speaker 3: the division up fourteen and fell apart. So why would
Speaker 3: I be picking Carolina. I think Carolina likes Steve Wilkes
Speaker 3: the players, and I think they want him to be
Speaker 3: the head coach next year. I don't know that he
Speaker 3: will be, but I think it's what the players want.
Speaker 3: Players almost always want the coach to stay in place
Speaker 3: because their jobs are safe. When a new coach comes in,
Speaker 3: there is massive roster churn. So it has to be
Speaker 3: a really disastrous coach for the players to want the
Speaker 3: coach fire because their jobs are in jeopardy. I think
Speaker 3: they like Wilkes. I'm also getting three and a half points.
Speaker 3: I also think they can run the ball on most
Speaker 3: teams Tampa, they weren't great running the ball against them,
Speaker 3: Hanging run the ball there. Darnald kind of playing for
Speaker 3: his NFL future a bit. He looked like he was
Speaker 3: going to be relegated to career backup. He's had a
Speaker 3: decent little run here in Carolina. We'll see what Carolina
Speaker 3: lands in the quarterback musical chairs next year. A lot
Speaker 3: of motivated Carolina Panthers, like their coach, want to end
Speaker 3: the year on a high note.
Speaker 4: Have been better than New Orleans this year.
Speaker 3: New Orleans not quite as good as the little winning
Speaker 3: streak suggests. Let me remind you, guys, for the for
Speaker 3: the Saints, pardon me what the winning streak has actually been,
Speaker 3: because four in a row sounds good.
Speaker 4: I'm sorry, three in a row sounds good. This would
Speaker 4: be four in a row.
Speaker 3: But those wins are against the Falcons who stink, the
Speaker 3: Browns who stink, and then a great win last week
Speaker 3: against the Eagles that to me, was there.
Speaker 4: The end of their season. We beat the Eagles. We
Speaker 4: showed we're better than you know what I mean.
Speaker 3: Our records suggests if we hadn't blown that game against
Speaker 3: the Bucks a few weeks ago, we'd be right there.
Speaker 3: But the Saints offense, it's last five weeks zero sixteen
Speaker 3: twenty one, seventeen twenty. I don't want to lay three
Speaker 3: and a half points with a team that can't break
Speaker 3: twenty one points. Carolina is gonna be able to run
Speaker 3: the ball. Caroline's gonna play hard.
Speaker 4: For their coach. Carolina plus three and a half.
Speaker 3: So for our first half of picks, Kansas City minus
Speaker 3: nine and a half, Jacksonville minus six, Atlanta minus four,
Speaker 3: Minnesota minus seven and a half, Indie minus two and
Speaker 3: a half, Miami plus one, Carolina plus three and a half.
Speaker 3: A bunch more underdogs, and are the rest of the slate.
Speaker 3: Next What's Right? Episode one, fourteen hour Week eighteen gambling Show.
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Speaker 3: All Right, Welcome, back in episode one fourteen, our Week
Speaker 3: eighteen gambling show. We're picking fourteen of the sixteen games.
Speaker 3: We're leaving the Buffalo game in the Cincinnati game out.
Speaker 3: We need to go ten and four to finish the
Speaker 3: year at five hundred, eleven and three finish the year
Speaker 3: above five hundred. In our first segment, we picked five
Speaker 3: favorites and two dogs. In this segment, we're gonna it's
Speaker 3: a little more even, but we're still going with more
Speaker 3: favorites than we typically would because of some of the
Speaker 3: dynamics of this week that are at play with who's
Speaker 3: motivated and who's not. We will start with Pittsburgh laying
Speaker 3: two and a half against Cleveland. This is very simple.
Speaker 3: This is a Mike Tomlin pick. This is a desperate
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh team. Pick a Pittsburgh team that is not only
Speaker 3: a live mathematically for the playoffs, but a Pittsburgh team
Speaker 3: that they're like. Okay, So we need Miami to lose
Speaker 3: to the Jets, they've lost five in a row, and
Speaker 3: we need New England to lose to the Bills, and
Speaker 3: the Bills have dominated New England over the last two years.
Speaker 3: If we win this game, we're in Conversely, the Browns,
Speaker 3: even though they won this past week. It's not the
Speaker 3: time for it right now. But the offseason will be.
Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson conversation.
Speaker 3: That is going to be a tricky one because when
Speaker 3: we say he's been underwhelming, that does not really do
Speaker 3: it justice Deshaun Watson. This is what he has done
Speaker 3: thus far. His first game one hundred and thirty yards,
Speaker 3: one pick, no touchdowns. His second game back two hundred
Speaker 3: and seventy yards, one pick, one touchdown in a loss
Speaker 3: against Baltimore, one hundred and sixty yards, against New Orleans
Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty five yards, and against Washington one
Speaker 3: hundred and sixty nine yards. He has not been good flatly.
Speaker 3: Pittsburgh has to have the game. I'm laying less than
Speaker 3: a field goal. I will admit there is part of
Speaker 3: me that feels like, is this thing gonna be sixteen
Speaker 3: to fourteen and I lose on the hook. Maybe, but
Speaker 3: laying three and a half. I wouldn't feel great about
Speaker 3: laying two and a half. I'm fine with Pittsburgh minus
Speaker 3: two and a half in a game they have to
Speaker 3: have next Denver at the Chargers. Denver is the two
Speaker 3: and a half point favorite and we are picking Denver.
Speaker 5: Pretty ironic why I been given the way you've talked
Speaker 5: about Russ and the bronc this entire season.
Speaker 3: Okay, so a few things here. Denver is not one
Speaker 3: of those teams that last game of the year were
Speaker 3: eliminated and managements like go ahead and lose, improve our
Speaker 3: draft pick.
Speaker 4: It's not their draft pick, Seattle's draft pick. First of all.
Speaker 3: Second of all, this is another one of those games
Speaker 3: where the actual timing of the games really matter. So
Speaker 3: if Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, the Chargers are locked into
Speaker 3: the five seeds. Baltimore Cincinnati kicks off at one PM.
Speaker 3: This game kicks off at four point thirty. So if
Speaker 3: you believe like I do, that Cincinnati is going to
Speaker 3: beat a Baltimore team that is almost surely going to
Speaker 3: be starting Tyler Huntley, then what we are going to
Speaker 3: have is a situation where the Chargers, who have been
Speaker 3: ravaged by injury this year, cannot im improve their seed
Speaker 3: and cannot fall backwards in the seeding. They will be
Speaker 3: locked into the five spot. That's why they're the underdogs. Denver,
Speaker 3: on the other hand, showed some fight last week for
Speaker 3: Jerry Rosberg. The Chargers I don't think I think we're
Speaker 3: gonna see Chase Daniel. I don't think we're see keenan Allen.
Speaker 3: I don't think we're seeing Mike Williams. I don't think
Speaker 3: we're seeing Nicki Bosa. I don't think we're gonna see
Speaker 3: Derwin James. I think the Chargers are gonna give themselves
Speaker 3: a mini bye week assuming Baltimore loses. Now, if Baltimore wins,
Speaker 3: it gets a little more complicated on what the different
Speaker 3: scenarios are. But still assuming Baltimore loses, which I believe
Speaker 3: they will, Chargers are locked into the five. They will
Speaker 3: be playing for nothing. They will be playing backups. Denver
Speaker 3: minus two and a half is our pick? Does that
Speaker 3: make sense there? If Denver, if this game was at
Speaker 3: the same time as Cincinnati Baltimore, I'd feel differently. But
Speaker 3: this game being three and a half hours later means
Speaker 3: they can pull everyone or not even start guys. If that,
Speaker 3: if Baltimore Cincinnati goes the way I think it will.
Speaker 3: Next Giants getting fourteen at Philly it is flatly too
Speaker 3: many points, even with the Giants playing backups when we
Speaker 3: don't know if Jalen Hurts is going to play Philadelphia
Speaker 3: needs this game. Obviously, they win the game. They're the
Speaker 3: one seed. If not, they could fall all the way
Speaker 3: to the three or to the five line. And they
Speaker 3: almost assuredly would fall at least to the two line,
Speaker 3: because I believe San Francisco more on them in a
Speaker 3: minute's gonna beat Arizona. But the Giants, here's the thing
Speaker 3: about the Giants playing backups. Their backups aren't much worse
Speaker 3: than their starters. The Giants don't have a ton of talent.
Speaker 3: The Giants are staying in games and beating teams for
Speaker 3: coaching and hard play, which you will get from the backups.
Speaker 3: Is Tyrod Taylor that much worse than Daniel Jones?
Speaker 4: I don't know.
Speaker 3: And so if the Giant starters were playing because the
Speaker 3: Giants are locked into their seed, would they be getting
Speaker 3: fourteen points? No, certainly not when Gardner Minshew might be
Speaker 3: the quarterback in this game, and if it is Jalen Hurts,
Speaker 3: I think it will be a very conservative Jalen Hurts
Speaker 3: game plan, trying to make sure he doesn't get hit.
Speaker 3: So the Giants getting fourteen points, it's flatly too many points.
Speaker 4: Seems like you have a take on this demanse.
Speaker 5: I mean, I think that line is kind of telling
Speaker 5: you that Jayson Jalen Hurts is going to be playing.
Speaker 2: They getting fourteen.
Speaker 3: I think the line is telling us that the Giants
Speaker 3: are resting everybody. But I just don't think that matters
Speaker 3: that much for that team. So Giants plus fourteen is
Speaker 3: our pick.
Speaker 2: There's a respect on Daniel Jones's name, man.
Speaker 4: I won't do that. I won't do that steady.
Speaker 2: Improvement every year, steady improvement.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so he's approved from unplayable to slightly below mediocre.
Speaker 4: I won't put a lot of respect on his name.
Speaker 5: The Giants what The Giants are also plus six on
Speaker 5: the money line.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think they're gonna win because Philly needs
Speaker 3: the game, So I don't think they're gonna win. A
Speaker 3: team that I know is not gonna win is the
Speaker 3: Cliff Kingsbury David Blough coach, quarterback Combo. This is a
Speaker 3: team that I don't think likes their coach, and I
Speaker 3: do think he might be on the way out. They
Speaker 3: are playing San Francisco. San Francisco is laying fourteen points.
Speaker 3: I will lay the fourteen points. Remember I said last
Speaker 3: week Jared Stidham that when the Niners were laying ten,
Speaker 3: I said the night that they only need to score
Speaker 3: fourteen to cover it against Jared.
Speaker 2: Stidham, and they went to the overtime.
Speaker 4: To cover fourteen against David Blough. I think they need seventeen?
Speaker 2: How much?
Speaker 5: So okay, I was gonna ask you, how much better
Speaker 5: are the Raiders than the Cardinals?
Speaker 2: In your opinion?
Speaker 4: Much better?
Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins isn't playing the third string quarterback is playing
Speaker 3: for Arizona now. The only little bit of fear I
Speaker 3: have is JJ Watts's final game ever. But like in that,
Speaker 3: but there is not enough around him. San Francisco highly
Speaker 3: motivated because San Francisco. Let me make sure I'm correct
Speaker 3: on this. Hold on, there is one note. I want
Speaker 3: to make sure I've got this right about the timing
Speaker 3: of these games. Yes, okay, that's what I wanted to
Speaker 3: make sure Philadelphia and the Giants are playing at the
Speaker 3: same time as San Francisco and Arizona. So will I
Speaker 3: admit there is potentially a little bit of fear that Philadelphia,
Speaker 3: that Philadelphia.
Speaker 4: Wins and San Francisco loses motivation.
Speaker 3: Here's why there is not because I believe earlier in
Speaker 3: the day, the Vikings will have beaten the Bears. And
Speaker 3: so even if Philadelphia is up by thirty and San
Speaker 3: Francisco knows, oh, we can't get the one seed, they
Speaker 3: will know assuming the Vikings have won. But if we lose,
Speaker 3: we fall to the three seed, and then we'd be
Speaker 3: going two Minnesota in round two, and we don't want that.
Speaker 3: We'd rather that game be outdoors in our building. So
Speaker 3: as long as the Vikings win the early game, no
Speaker 3: matter what's happening in the Philadelphia game, San Francisco is motivated.
Speaker 3: That defense got embarrassed by Jared Stidham last week, right,
Speaker 3: So I think Defen's gonna be on fire. I think
Speaker 3: San Francisco will hold Arizona to single digits. I'll lay
Speaker 3: the fourteen points next. Dallas minus seven and a half
Speaker 3: versus Washington. Washington is starting Sam Howell. He is a
Speaker 3: fifth round rookie. Sam Howell showed you so much after
Speaker 3: you drafted him that he was your third string quarterback
Speaker 3: behind Carson Wentzon, Taylor Heineke. Washington is falling apart at
Speaker 3: the end of the year. Dallas's defense and defense alone
Speaker 3: is enough to cover this seven and a half Dallas
Speaker 3: also because again, this is another one of those games
Speaker 3: where at least in the beginning of the game Dallas
Speaker 3: is going to be highly motivated because the division is
Speaker 3: available for him.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 3: Is there a little concern that Philly will be annihilating
Speaker 3: the Giants and Dallas will pull people. Yes, that's why
Speaker 3: Week eighteen is tough. But as long as the Giants,
Speaker 3: if I'm right about the Giants being able to keep
Speaker 3: it within two scores, Dallas is not going to be
Speaker 3: able to just say, Okay, this game is meaningless. We're
Speaker 3: locked into the five seed. Dallas will keep playing. If
Speaker 3: they keep playing, they will. I don't know how Washington
Speaker 3: and Sam Howe is going to move the ball on
Speaker 3: this defense, and Dallas also is motivated to get up
Speaker 3: huge early so they can get guys out of the game.
Speaker 3: Dallas minus seven and a half next, This is one
Speaker 3: of the only games where I'm the team that has
Speaker 3: nothing to play for. I am picking over the team
Speaker 3: that has everything to play for, the Rams getting six
Speaker 3: and a half at Seattle, I'm taking the Rams. So Seattle,
Speaker 3: if they win, they're alive for the postseason. I'm taking
Speaker 3: the Rams because this Sean McVay Baker mayfield offense against
Speaker 3: bad defenses can move the football. Furthermore, Sean McVay at
Speaker 3: a very interesting press conference on Wednesday when we saw
Speaker 3: about how this was a professional failure and embarrassment of
Speaker 3: a season. I don't think they are ready to just
Speaker 3: roll over. I think they want to end the season
Speaker 3: on a strong note. They also don't have their draft
Speaker 3: pick it goes to Detroit, so they are not incentivized
Speaker 3: at all to lose the game. I'm not saying they're
Speaker 3: gonna win the game, but I don't think they're gonna
Speaker 3: get blown out.
Speaker 4: I think Baker is highly.
Speaker 3: Incentivized to try to put more good football on tape.
Speaker 4: I'm getting six and a half. I'm gonna jump on
Speaker 4: the Rams.
Speaker 3: If you're thinking about actually betting, this game is another
Speaker 3: one of those games where the line is in a
Speaker 3: place where if it moves against you, it doesn't kill
Speaker 3: you if it moves down to six. If you think
Speaker 3: about betting the Rams, I would wait to see if
Speaker 3: it moves up to seven, which is obviously a huge number.
Speaker 3: I don't think the Rams win outright, but I do
Speaker 3: think they keep it close. The Rams plus six and
Speaker 3: a half, and lastly, my favorite bet of the week
Speaker 3: Detroit plus five and a half at Green Bay. I
Speaker 3: think Detroit's gonna win this game. I would be shocked
Speaker 3: if Dan Campbell's team gets embarrassed. Now I understand the
Speaker 3: level of concern, which is if Seattle wins, Detroit is
Speaker 3: eliminated from playoff contention before this game kicks off. This
Speaker 3: is the night game, and if Seattle wins, then the
Speaker 3: NFC wildcard the final wild cards, either Green Bay or Seattle.
Speaker 3: In a weird way, I think Detroit is in a
Speaker 3: fine position no matter what happens in the Seattle game
Speaker 3: as far as covering this number.
Speaker 4: Here's why.
Speaker 3: If Seattle loses, Detroit is now obviously peak motivation.
Speaker 4: We win. We're into the playoffs, right.
Speaker 3: If Seattle wins, Detroit and Dan Campbell are still gonna
Speaker 3: want to spoil it for Aaron Rodgers. But they also
Speaker 3: can be insanely aggressive, have no worries about I think
Speaker 3: they'll go for every fourth down.
Speaker 4: I think they will do trick plays.
Speaker 3: I think they will do a lot of things that
Speaker 3: can catch the Packers off guard. I thinktle I think
Speaker 3: Detroit is oddly enough gonna dare Aaron Rodgers to beat
Speaker 3: him sell out to stop the run, because the reason
Speaker 3: Detroit's in this position where they don't control their own
Speaker 3: destiny is because they let Carolina run for three to
Speaker 3: twenty on them.
Speaker 4: I think Detroit wins the game. What are they on
Speaker 4: the money line? Demonse?
Speaker 3: I'm gonna you know what, So I like Detroit plus
Speaker 3: five and a half.
Speaker 4: I think they win the game.
Speaker 3: I think at the very least they keep it close
Speaker 3: because we are being reckless.
Speaker 2: Fifty bucks on the one eighty that were on the
Speaker 2: money line.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, just one eight that would win you ninety
Speaker 4: all right, I like that.
Speaker 2: That's not what I'm doing.
Speaker 5: Well, I thought those were I thought it was going
Speaker 5: to be a way better number than ninety bucks.
Speaker 2: Not doing that, Deso, Okay.
Speaker 3: I was about to say, we're about to put in
Speaker 3: a reckless parlay. We have done eighteen of these shows,
Speaker 3: and Demons still is insistent on making fifty dollars bets
Speaker 3: that in theory can win him six hundred.
Speaker 4: No, no, no, no, but actually win him zero.
Speaker 5: That's not that's not my whole strat My strategy is
Speaker 5: like twenty below, okay, would be like six to eight
Speaker 5: hundred bucks.
Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, he's in love with the third.
Speaker 2: Fifty to win ninety doesn't sound great to me. It's
Speaker 2: not really appealing.
Speaker 3: Well, all these other bets would be fifty to win
Speaker 3: forty five, all right, to be minus one ten, I
Speaker 3: wouldn't be doing those, Okay, no problem, all right, I
Speaker 3: am in the spirit of that. We're gona take a
Speaker 3: quick break. I'm gonna put a fun money line parlay
Speaker 3: together for us.
Speaker 4: We'll do that, so we wrap our Week eighteen Gambling show.
Speaker 4: That's next. What's right?
Speaker 3: Come all right, welcome back in Week eighteen Gambling Show.
Speaker 3: We're breaking all our rules. We're betting almost every game.
Speaker 3: The bets are as follows. Can City minus nine and
Speaker 3: a half, Jacksonville minus six, Atlanta minus four, Minnesota minus
Speaker 3: seven and a half, Indie minus two and a half,
Speaker 3: Miami plus one, Carolina plus three and a half, Pittsburgh
Speaker 3: minus two and a half, Denver minus two and a half,
Speaker 3: Giants plus fourteen, San Francisco minus fourteen, Dallas minus seven
Speaker 3: and a half, Rams plus six and a half, Detroit
Speaker 3: plus five and a half. Now I understand that is
Speaker 3: nine favorites five dogs. Not ideal. It's a lot of
Speaker 3: stuff we normally wouldn't do. Luckily, We're gonna go eleven
Speaker 3: and three and finish above five. I'm manifesting it. I'm
Speaker 3: also gonna give you, guys, this is more up your alley. Demonse,
Speaker 3: How does plus twelve hundred sound to you? So this
Speaker 3: would be fifty to win six hundred dollars. We're gonna
Speaker 3: call this the Lions make.
Speaker 4: The playoffs parlay.
Speaker 3: Okay, it is Detroit on the money line plus the
Speaker 3: Rams on the money line, because the Rams have to
Speaker 3: beat Seattle for Detroit to make the playoffs. And then
Speaker 3: we are throwing in in order to make it just
Speaker 3: a little bit more.
Speaker 4: Oh wait, hold on, I.
Speaker 3: Can make it a little bit better, I think, let
Speaker 3: me does it make it now? We're not including that one,
Speaker 3: just to make it a little bit more juicy. The
Speaker 3: Chiefs on the money line and the Niners on the
Speaker 3: money line, two teams that I am certain are going
Speaker 3: to win and have something to play for. So the
Speaker 3: Chiefs to win against the Raiders, the Niners to win
Speaker 3: against David blou and the Cardinals.
Speaker 4: The Rams and Baker.
Speaker 3: May Field to go to Seattle and win, which would
Speaker 3: make Detroit at Green Bay a win and in game
Speaker 3: and Detroit to win that game.
Speaker 4: It is twelve to one.
Speaker 3: I am making myself that offer and I am taking
Speaker 3: that offer. That's our Week eighteen Gambling Show. Good luck
Speaker 3: to everyone. Don't do what we did. Gamble responsibly. We'll
Speaker 3: see you on Monday.