WEBVTT - Week 18 NFL Bets: Nick's Picks 0:00:00.440 --> 0:00:02.800 If your football team had one option in their playbook, 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:05.800 the results probably wouldn't be great. The same could be 0:00:05.840 --> 0:00:09.440 said for your investments. Cibo index options like SPX and 0:00:09.600 --> 0:00:12.920 XSP can help expand your investing strategies with cash settlement 0:00:13.080 --> 0:00:15.840 and potential tax advantages. If you're ready for a more 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.160 dynamic game plan, head to Better with Options dot Com. 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:22.880 Cebo Life is better with options, Your investments. 0:00:22.440 --> 0:00:23.119 Could be too. 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:26.159 There are risks associated with CBO company products. Review the 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:40.680 disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com slash us underscore disclaimers. 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:48.800 Welcome in episode one fourteen, our final regular season gambling 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:52.639 show of the year, and before we do. 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:55.520 Yeah we did last week and our season records. 0:00:55.800 --> 0:00:59.240 Now is of course the time to remind everyone how 0:00:59.360 --> 0:01:03.040 dominant we all were as a collective. If you guys 0:01:03.080 --> 0:01:06.959 took my preseason gambling advice. Now, I've done this on 0:01:07.000 --> 0:01:10.039 a few shows, but it's making me feel better about life, 0:01:10.040 --> 0:01:14.000 so I'm doing it again. We gave you Jacksonville over 0:01:14.120 --> 0:01:16.880 six and a half, cash it, Kent City over ten 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:21.440 and a half, cash it, San Francisco over nine and 0:01:21.440 --> 0:01:24.880 a half, cash it Tampa under eleven and a half. 0:01:24.959 --> 0:01:27.560 We called that our bet of the year, cash it. 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:32.839 So that's four winners. New England, we gave you under 0:01:32.880 --> 0:01:35.360 eight and a half, Gonna come down to the wire. 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:39.240 They're sitting at eight wins. We'll see Indy, we gave 0:01:39.240 --> 0:01:43.840 you over nine and a half, no good. Giants, we 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:46.920 gave you over seven and a half, no good. And 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:51.160 then Baltimore over over ten and a half. Gonna come 0:01:51.240 --> 0:01:54.320 down to the wire. Not looking great though, because they're underdogs. 0:01:54.480 --> 0:01:58.160 So we have four wins locked in, two losses locked in, 0:01:58.280 --> 0:02:01.280 and two that are gonna come down to Week seventeen. 0:02:01.920 --> 0:02:05.600 We also gave you Seattle, the Jets, Atlanta and New 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:07.279 England parlay. 0:02:06.880 --> 0:02:10.280 Do all missed the playoffs might at even money, Gonna 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:11.040 come down to the wire. 0:02:11.160 --> 0:02:12.679 Seattle and New England so love. 0:02:13.000 --> 0:02:16.000 We gave you Cleveland to miss the playoffs minus won 0:02:16.160 --> 0:02:18.880 seventy locked in for a month, Denver to missed the 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:24.640 playoffs at plus money locked in forever. New England missed 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:27.880 the playoffs at minus two hundred, Gonna come down to 0:02:27.880 --> 0:02:32.800 the wire. And then our long shot parlay of division 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:36.440 winners did not come through thanks to the Colts. 0:02:37.000 --> 0:02:39.880 And then we have just sitting out there like. 0:02:39.880 --> 0:02:45.639 My fourth child, my fifty to one one dime ticket 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:53.520 on a Chiefs Niners super Bowl exacta. That's college tuition 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:57.080 for more than a year for your wonderful sister, that 0:02:57.160 --> 0:03:01.520 tearing back from colleges right now. Or that's a hell 0:03:01.560 --> 0:03:06.240 of a hell of a weekend for your pops in Vegas. 0:03:06.400 --> 0:03:08.680 See if we can flip that from one year college 0:03:08.680 --> 0:03:10.600 tuition to four years college tuition. 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:11.600 We'll see. 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:15.040 But that ticket is sitting there in a lock box 0:03:15.120 --> 0:03:19.080 in my heart and on a betting app not to 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:22.920 be named. So that was, you know, preseason, just crushing 0:03:22.960 --> 0:03:27.960 the world week two week demons has been you know, 0:03:28.000 --> 0:03:31.160 it's been a bit of a struggle. So last week, 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:34.560 we gave you Miami plus two and a half is 0:03:34.600 --> 0:03:38.640 the right move. They lost by two. That's a winner. 0:03:38.960 --> 0:03:39.800 Got a little lucky. 0:03:39.880 --> 0:03:42.280 We're gonna admit they were down nine. We gave you 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:46.080 Arizona plus three and a half. All of a sudden 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:48.560 didn't kick off. They're like, we're starting David blow and 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:51.440 there were six point dogs, but it covered anyway. I 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:54.880 told you Desmond Ritter should not be trusted to be favored. 0:03:55.680 --> 0:03:59.560 But that's where the good fortune kind of ended. We 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:02.440 told you which San Francisco minus ten that they'd only 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:04.280 need fourteen points to cover that. 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:05.960 Yeah, I think. 0:04:05.720 --> 0:04:09.480 They scored somewhere in the thirties and they didn't. 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:11.320 Cover thirty seven forty or something like that. 0:04:11.280 --> 0:04:14.200 It wasn't great. You know, it wasn't great. Thirty seven 0:04:14.280 --> 0:04:14.720 thirty four. 0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:18.360 Maybe it was the playoffs four team, Oh that we gave. 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.800 We gave you Minnesota plus three and a half. They 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:27.279 lost by roughly fifty Would Minnesota plus thirty five have 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:28.279 covered that game? 0:04:28.680 --> 0:04:31.839 Let me check? I was that game forty one to three? 0:04:32.520 --> 0:04:32.760 Was it? 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:36.520 Whatever it was, it wasn't good. And then of course, 0:04:36.560 --> 0:04:39.920 as we discussed on yesterday's show, Uh, we also had 0:04:39.920 --> 0:04:42.920 Cincinnati Buffalo and we we covered that quite a bit 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:47.760 on Thursday's pod, everything surrounding Tom Hamlin. But that's obviously 0:04:48.520 --> 0:04:52.680 we're just that game is no action on all fronts. 0:04:53.040 --> 0:04:54.880 So that was a two and two week. Oh they 0:04:54.880 --> 0:04:57.560 lost forty one seventeen, so plus thirty five would have 0:04:57.600 --> 0:04:59.400 covered for the Vikings, but plus three and a. 0:04:59.400 --> 0:04:59.839 Half did not. 0:05:00.880 --> 0:05:05.000 So that puts our record for the season at a 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:10.039 pitifull thirty nine, forty five and two are right move 0:05:10.520 --> 0:05:15.159 at six and eleve we typically only pick five games 0:05:15.160 --> 0:05:18.520 a week. We are six games under five hundred, demons, 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:20.480 all now hand the rings to you for a moment. 0:05:20.520 --> 0:05:22.920 Yes, so I've got a little proposition for you. Well, 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:26.000 the good news is, well, the good news and the 0:05:26.040 --> 0:05:29.440 bad news. Sorry, you cannot finish the regular season above 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:31.320 five hundred, even with a five and oh week. 0:05:31.360 --> 0:05:33.840 Yeah that's the math that I was just realizing. Six 0:05:33.880 --> 0:05:36.360 games under five and oh can't get there. 0:05:36.560 --> 0:05:37.120 Uh huh. 0:05:37.160 --> 0:05:39.720 But the good news is you are sixteen to nine 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:40.880 in divisional games. 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:45.760 Really sixty you know, some small say those are the 0:05:45.800 --> 0:05:50.159 hardest games to pick, the divisional contest, And I'm. 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:53.080 Sixty four ats and divisional games. 0:05:53.320 --> 0:05:56.720 Okay, go ahead, all right, So luckily, luckily, we have 0:05:56.839 --> 0:06:00.640 sixteen divisional games this week, all divisional games. 0:06:00.320 --> 0:06:01.120 The final weekend. 0:06:01.320 --> 0:06:03.680 Yep. Yeah, if you keep up that pace, you could 0:06:03.800 --> 0:06:04.880 end up over five hundred. 0:06:05.000 --> 0:06:05.400 Uh huh. 0:06:05.400 --> 0:06:08.359 Here is my final offer of the regular season. 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:11.080 Oh, an early show offer. Yeah, we usually save this 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:11.880 for the very end. 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:15.280 You bet every game for a chance to finish over 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:16.400 five hundred. 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:20.040 Do you accept this offer? All right? 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:27.120 This listen, the theme of this show has been responsible gambling. 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:32.080 You have learned some hard lessons about responsible gambling. We 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:34.599 have talked to the audience about how every week you've 0:06:34.600 --> 0:06:38.280 got to put the games into different buckets. Your be carefuls, 0:06:38.480 --> 0:06:42.400 your stay aways, you're perfectly priced, and then your actual bets. 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:51.000 There is no week that exemplifies the necessity of sticking 0:06:51.040 --> 0:06:56.640 to a responsible gambling strategy like Week eighteen, when you 0:06:56.680 --> 0:06:59.480 have backups in the game, when you have teams pulling 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:02.880 their starters without saying when you have one team that's 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:06.120 playing hard but then sees that the only reason they 0:07:06.160 --> 0:07:08.200 were playing hard was let me give you an example. 0:07:08.600 --> 0:07:12.840 Eagles are playing the Giants and the Cowboys are playing Washington. 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:14.840 The Cowboys got to play hard. They could be the 0:07:14.880 --> 0:07:17.360 one seed, they could win the division. But then they 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:20.640 see at halftime of these simultaneous games the Eagles are 0:07:20.720 --> 0:07:23.160 up twenty. They're like, oh, well they're not going to lose. 0:07:23.440 --> 0:07:25.960 We're now locked into the five. We can pull our starters. 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:29.280 It is the hardest week to handicap. It would be 0:07:29.360 --> 0:07:33.640 the most ridiculous week to bet all of the games 0:07:33.640 --> 0:07:39.680 on the sling. However, I have a streak. 0:07:39.360 --> 0:07:40.760 On the line. 0:07:41.080 --> 0:07:43.720 Since I've been on television, I have never finished a 0:07:43.760 --> 0:07:47.920 year below five hundred. Now again, the smart thing would 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:51.120 be stick with my five games, go three and two, 0:07:51.520 --> 0:07:54.440 finish a few games below five hundred, take my medicine. 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:58.080 But I am not to take my medicine type. So 0:07:58.200 --> 0:07:59.480 here's what I'm going to do. 0:08:00.520 --> 0:08:05.960 I don't feel comfortable really discussing or gambling on the 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:08.960 games involving the Bills and the Bengals. I think it's 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:13.680 kind of poor form, especially with as we're recording this 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:17.280 still so much unknown about DeMar and then from the 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:21.760 Bengals perspective about what their future schedule is going to be. 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:25.720 So let's just take them out of the running. Bengals 0:08:25.800 --> 0:08:28.240 Ravens and Bengals Patriots. 0:08:27.760 --> 0:08:28.320 Take that out. 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:33.080 That leaves us with fourteen games. If you revise the 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:37.680 offer to fourteen games, I will accept it. 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:39.600 Will you revise the. 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.640 Offer fourteen all the games except for the Bills in 0:08:42.679 --> 0:08:43.400 the Bengals game. 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:45.000 Can that be the offer? 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:45.960 Of course? 0:08:46.160 --> 0:08:47.360 Okay, then I accept it. 0:08:47.840 --> 0:08:51.040 For the record, if my math is corrected, six games 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:53.960 under five hundred, I would need to go ten and 0:08:54.080 --> 0:08:59.760 four to be five hundred, and a crackling hot eleven 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:02.960 and three to finish above five hundred. 0:09:04.040 --> 0:09:04.760 We can do it. 0:09:06.040 --> 0:09:09.280 So these are all knicks picks. There are no stayaways, 0:09:09.480 --> 0:09:12.439 there are no be carefuls, there are no perfectly priced 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:16.080 We're doing fourteen picks today. We're doing them all. I 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:19.640 do have a few that I like more than others, 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:24.280 and I will let the audience know what those few are, okay, 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:28.319 or we will go somewhat in chronological order, but not exactly. 0:09:28.559 --> 0:09:33.920 We'll start with Saturday's games. Kansas City at Vegas. Kansas 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:37.920 City minus nine and a half, all right at Vegas 0:09:38.280 --> 0:09:43.560 for the second straight year. Kansas City is the first 0:09:43.640 --> 0:09:44.800 game of Week eighteen. 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:45.640 Right. 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:51.600 Kansas City, also, if you guys have noticed, has not 0:09:51.679 --> 0:09:56.240 been great at covering spreads, particularly big spreads. Vegas, on 0:09:56.280 --> 0:09:58.400 the other hand, looked awesome last week. 0:09:59.679 --> 0:10:00.600 Ah, I have been. 0:10:00.520 --> 0:10:03.760 Pretty smart on not including Kansas City as a big 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:05.160 favorite throughout these picks. 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:11.240 With that set, I think the Raiders. 0:10:12.720 --> 0:10:18.480 Another double digit blown lead last week, they can see 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:19.079 the end of. 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:21.280 Their season on the horizon. 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:24.320 Last week, they went into that game technically still alive 0:10:24.400 --> 0:10:27.640 for the playoffs. As unlikely as it seemed and as 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:31.400 odd as it was that they were starting stile, I 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:35.520 think this is a game the Raiders play to stay healthy. 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:37.000 Get into the offseason. 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:41.200 There's nothing a player hates more than getting dinged in 0:10:41.280 --> 0:10:44.000 the final game of the year, to where instead of 0:10:44.040 --> 0:10:48.160 being able to go to a warm location for their vacation, 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.120 they have to stay at the facility in rehab. 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:52.880 The Chiefs, on the other. 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:59.600 Hand, need to put an impressive performance together before they 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:02.960 have appears right now to be the bye and time off. 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.680 The Chiefs are going to lay it on the Raiders. 0:11:07.280 --> 0:11:10.920 Patrick Mahomes I don't think he's gonna get there, but 0:11:11.000 --> 0:11:14.240 he's four hundred and twenty yards away from the all 0:11:14.280 --> 0:11:18.520 time single season passing record. Travis Kelcey has not scored 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:22.280 a touchdown in five weeks, but Davante had two touchdown 0:11:22.280 --> 0:11:24.360 to catch his last week, so Davante is now up 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:27.480 by two, so Travis Kelcey can try to at least 0:11:27.520 --> 0:11:30.920 tie Devonte Adams. He has three touchdown receptions. 0:11:30.440 --> 0:11:32.520 Which I think he did last Searonne. 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.040 He's done this year. He was either against the charge 0:11:34.040 --> 0:11:38.400 of the Raiders regardless. I think the Chiefs put it 0:11:38.440 --> 0:11:43.720 on the Raiders offensively and defensively. I think Stidham goes 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:45.680 back to the player he was for the first five 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:47.959 years of his career, not the player he was in 0:11:48.040 --> 0:11:50.960 that miraculous game against the Niners. All right, so Chiefs 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:54.040 laying nine and a half. Now the Saturday night name. 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.760 Jacksonville's a six point favorite at Tennessee. 0:12:01.559 --> 0:12:08.640 So when I was going through this de Monsey, everything screamed, Oh, Tennessee. 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:12.760 There's a lot of reasons to go with Tennessee. You 0:12:12.840 --> 0:12:15.600 have a few of them. Go ahead, I'll I'll let 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.040 you tell me some of the reasons to pick Tennessee. 0:12:18.640 --> 0:12:22.480 Well, this is a classic Mike Rabill cover. Yeah. 0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:25.840 Uh, Tennessee's obviously all right, Yeah, Tennessee's coming off of 0:12:25.880 --> 0:12:26.640 a bunch of rests. 0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:29.240 Yeah, and he covers seventy percent of his games as 0:12:29.240 --> 0:12:29.800 an underdog. 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:37.360 Okay, that's all true. And Tennessee's been awful for more 0:12:37.400 --> 0:12:42.120 than a month. Right, they're starting Josh Dobbs Jacksonville. For 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.600 both teams, it's to win in your in scenario, I 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:49.239 understand that Jacksonville actually technically could lose, and if Pittsburgh, 0:12:49.280 --> 0:12:52.560 New England and Miami all lose, Jacksonville gets the wild 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:56.479 card and there's two AFC South playoff teams, So Jacksonville 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:58.240 has a slim change of making the playoffs even with 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:01.600 a loss, but the winner gets the four and it's 0:13:01.640 --> 0:13:04.679 almost more likely and Tennessee loses, they're done. 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:07.240 No matter what, all of. 0:13:09.320 --> 0:13:16.000 My smart gambling tendency say, take Tennessee verybele at least 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:17.160 is going to keep it close. 0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:21.320 And I was ready to put in Tennessee. 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:25.720 And then I thought of that, and I said, if 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:30.040 one thing this show has gotten right this year, it's 0:13:30.120 --> 0:13:32.400 our faith in the Prince that was promised. 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:36.040 And the only reason that our record. 0:13:35.720 --> 0:13:40.840 Isn't better is because you assholes made me stop betting 0:13:40.880 --> 0:13:44.560 on it right when they were about to go on 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:47.240 their winning streak. You guys put a ban on me, 0:13:47.880 --> 0:13:51.360 and because of that, I'm one in six betting on 0:13:51.440 --> 0:13:52.040 the Jags. 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:56.080 Well, the ban has been lifted. I have not taken 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:59.120 full advantage of it the way I should have. And 0:13:59.160 --> 0:14:01.480 the Jags minus. 0:14:01.160 --> 0:14:05.120 Six, the Jags which brought your worst gambling moment of 0:14:05.160 --> 0:14:09.320 the year, the overtime game against Dallas by winning the Jags, 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:12.120 which hurt my feelings so many times this year. 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:14.800 No, I'm simply saying. 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:18.040 We have had a tortured history with the Jags this 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:22.560 year when we shouldn't have. I should have simply ignored 0:14:22.640 --> 0:14:25.320 you guys when you guys were telling me they're no good. 0:14:25.760 --> 0:14:34.000 He's not a prince, all these things. Jags minus six. 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:37.400 We're not Chiefs and Jags so far? What could go roll? 0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:39.680 What could go they? 0:14:39.920 --> 0:14:42.320 I've been right about the Chiefs all year. I've been 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:45.560 right about the Jags all year, and my most important 0:14:45.600 --> 0:14:49.520 weekend of the year, I'm not abandoning them. Now to Sunday, 0:14:50.800 --> 0:14:58.080 Atlanta minus four against Tampa Bay. So I understand last 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:01.040 week I said, how can did you ever lay three 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:03.480 points with Desmond Ridder? 0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:04.400 Right? 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:08.480 And I took three and a half with the terrible 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:12.840 Cardinals and ended up being David Blough purely on the 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:16.080 belief of how can you lay points with Desmond Ritter? 0:15:16.720 --> 0:15:20.240 But this is where Week eighteen is tricky. 0:15:20.920 --> 0:15:23.680 Okay, that's a really nasty line. 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:30.880 Well, Tampa is claiming they are going to play their starters. 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:33.200 I don't believe them. 0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.040 I think Brady's gonna play a series or two and 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:40.800 then be pulled for Trask or Gabbert, whomever their backup 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:41.840 quarterback's going to be. 0:15:42.320 --> 0:15:43.880 I think Evans will be pulled. 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:47.480 I think all of their key players are coming out 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:51.120 of this game, and usually even when you pull your 0:15:51.200 --> 0:15:54.960 key guys, you leave in your front line offensive lineman. 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:57.680 But some of their offensive linemen are dealing with injuries. 0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:01.320 I think those guys will be pulled. So I believe 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:05.560 Atlanta they're running attack and the fact that Tampa is 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:08.640 locked into the four seed is going to roll over 0:16:08.760 --> 0:16:11.680 in this game. So I will lay the four points 0:16:11.880 --> 0:16:13.200 with the Atlanta Falcons. 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:15.800 That might have been the craziest like thought process that 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:18.720 you'd explain to why. I mean, you're just banking on 0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:19.760 that happening, Like. 0:16:20.040 --> 0:16:23.000 Yeah, I am banking on that happening. That is correct, 0:16:23.280 --> 0:16:26.200 and I understand that I'm betting that right now. 0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:26.720 It does. 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:30.480 It's a lot of favorites, it would appear. I get that. 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:33.320 I don't love that it's this many favorites to start with. 0:16:33.360 --> 0:16:36.040 We'll get to some underdogs later. However, it should be 0:16:36.200 --> 0:16:36.680 go ahead. 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:39.040 You are three to zero betting against Tom Brady this year. 0:16:39.320 --> 0:16:41.960 Well, they listen, Tampa's been the worst covering team in 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.840 the league because Vegas has overvalued them throughout the season. 0:16:45.280 --> 0:16:48.600 But Atlanta, I believe he's gonna play hard and play 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:52.240 all their guys. Tampa is claiming they're going to play 0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:54.080 their guys, I don't believe them. 0:16:54.480 --> 0:16:56.120 Atlanta minus four. 0:16:56.600 --> 0:17:02.600 Next another favorite, Minnesota minus seven and a half at Chicago. 0:17:03.920 --> 0:17:06.439 So the logic on this you saw Justin Field's not playing. 0:17:07.080 --> 0:17:07.840 Justin Field's not. 0:17:07.760 --> 0:17:09.800 Playing in this game, which kind of sucks for him. 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:14.280 Because he is what record was yep, about sixty yards 0:17:14.320 --> 0:17:18.280 away from breaking Lamar Jackson's single season quarterback rushing record. 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:21.280 He can't do it, though. He can't do it because 0:17:21.320 --> 0:17:21.879 he's not playing. 0:17:22.000 --> 0:17:24.840 Wait, who'd you say he's not playing Justin Fields? 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:25.640 What? Ad Ice? Maybe? 0:17:25.760 --> 0:17:27.960 Oh Justin Field? I thought you said Justin Jefferson. No, 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.560 Justin Field is not playing. He's not playing, so he 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:36.320 can't break Lamar Jackson's single season rushing record. Minnesota is 0:17:36.359 --> 0:17:40.720 coming off a terrible performance. They could get the two seed, 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:44.120 but they won't. They are essentially locked into the three. 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:50.240 Now is there a piece of me that otherwise would 0:17:50.240 --> 0:17:53.920 be concerned about Minnesota? 0:17:54.080 --> 0:17:55.520 Remember what I said earlier? 0:17:56.280 --> 0:17:58.960 I said you've got to be careful in Week eighteen 0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:02.479 that the a team, you lay a lot of points 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:04.920 with them, and then at halftime they're like, wait, we're 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:09.520 playing for nothing. If the Niners win against the Rams 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:12.800 or against the Cardinals, pardon me, which they will. Minnesota's 0:18:12.800 --> 0:18:18.280 playing for nothing. They're the three seeds. However, the Vikings 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:21.520 game is at one o'clock. The Niners game is at 0:18:21.640 --> 0:18:27.120 four thirty, so the Vikings will literally not know anything 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:32.080 about the Niners result until that game until they're done, 0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:36.800 so they will play their entire game believing we're alive 0:18:36.840 --> 0:18:39.679 for the two we have to win and we have 0:18:39.720 --> 0:18:42.760 to have San Francisco lose. San Francisco will kick off 0:18:42.760 --> 0:18:47.520 when their game is over, so that incentivizes the Vikings 0:18:47.760 --> 0:18:50.159 to play hard. The fact that they're coming off their 0:18:50.160 --> 0:18:51.159 worst game of the season. 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:53.720 Couldn't the players think about it just like you think 0:18:53.720 --> 0:18:54.320 about it? Though? 0:18:54.760 --> 0:18:55.320 What do you mean? 0:18:55.600 --> 0:18:58.119 Like Minnesota knows like we could win, but like, what 0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:00.560 are the chances of San Francisco losing Arizona? 0:19:00.720 --> 0:19:02.360 Well, yes, but here's that. You're right. 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:04.239 The players can think about it like that, but the 0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:07.960 coaches won't. And the coaches, like I feel like football 0:19:07.960 --> 0:19:10.520 players win, they're in the game, have to play hard 0:19:10.680 --> 0:19:12.280 because of the dangers around. 0:19:12.600 --> 0:19:15.640 Right, what happens if the coaches pull players. 0:19:16.000 --> 0:19:19.200 The coaches aren't gonna pull their guys, especially because they 0:19:19.200 --> 0:19:22.880 can't get the bye so they need to have some 0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:26.440 type of good feeling momentum going into their playoff game, 0:19:26.440 --> 0:19:29.480 which is coming up in a week after this game 0:19:29.520 --> 0:19:30.440 against the Giants. 0:19:30.880 --> 0:19:32.040 Now, let's go to Chicago. 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:41.719 Chicago alive for the number one pick if they lose, 0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:44.520 and you might say, well, Houston's not gonna win. We're 0:19:44.560 --> 0:19:47.200 gonna talk about that game in a moment. Houston's playing Indy. 0:19:47.480 --> 0:19:50.240 They of course could win because anyone could beat Indy, 0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:55.600 so like that, it's on the board. Conversely, if Chicago 0:19:55.840 --> 0:20:01.000 were to win, they go from but potentially they could 0:20:01.040 --> 0:20:04.040 lose the number two pick because they're three and thirteen. 0:20:04.440 --> 0:20:08.159 Arizona and Denver are both four and twelve, so Chicago 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:09.719 wants to lose. 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:13.879 I would love this game so much more at seven. 0:20:14.240 --> 0:20:16.560 And I will tell you right now to the betting public, 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:20.679 if you're when we're doing this is seven and a half. 0:20:21.119 --> 0:20:23.399 This is a game I would wait until Sunday morning. 0:20:23.680 --> 0:20:25.720 If the line moves against you and goes to eight, 0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:28.640 no worries. But if it moves for you and goes 0:20:28.640 --> 0:20:32.320 to seven, that is a huge benefit. But I think 0:20:32.359 --> 0:20:36.760 Minnesota plays a good game. I think Minnesota plays motivated. 0:20:37.040 --> 0:20:40.440 I think Chicago actively wants to lose and is not 0:20:40.600 --> 0:20:44.359 starting justin fields for all those reasons, all lay seven 0:20:44.359 --> 0:20:47.880 and a half with Minnesota and now another favorite. We're 0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:49.400 getting to the underdog shortly. 0:20:49.520 --> 0:20:50.560 I promise. 0:20:52.480 --> 0:20:56.879 Indy laying two and a half against Houston. So this 0:20:57.080 --> 0:21:00.280 right here is one of the oddest. 0:20:59.800 --> 0:21:00.840 Game of the week. 0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:10.720 And here's why Indy is triple incentivized to lose. Okay, 0:21:12.200 --> 0:21:16.440 number one is there, four, eleven, and one. With a win, 0:21:17.640 --> 0:21:21.960 they could fall out of the top five of the 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:27.040 draft and end up drafting six. With a loss, theoretically 0:21:27.560 --> 0:21:30.720 they could be drafting as high as three. Probably they'd 0:21:30.720 --> 0:21:35.760 be drafting four or five. Okay, But more importantly, with 0:21:35.880 --> 0:21:43.600 a loss, Houston, their divisional rival, would lose the number 0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:48.120 one pick. Assuming Chicago loses, Houston would with a win, 0:21:48.640 --> 0:21:52.400 would go to the number two pick. So if you're Indy, okay, 0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:59.280 you really want to throw this game. You prevent Bryce 0:21:59.359 --> 0:22:03.320 Young from growing up in your division. You screw Houston, 0:22:03.720 --> 0:22:07.520 you help your draft pick. So I'm making all the 0:22:07.600 --> 0:22:12.160 case and Houston plays hard, they're just no good and 0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:15.920 I'm making all the case for taking Houston plus the points. 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:18.679 So why does it say on the screen Indie minus 0:22:18.720 --> 0:22:23.320 two and a half. Let me tell you, because if 0:22:23.359 --> 0:22:32.399 we know anything about Jeff's Saturday that the one time 0:22:33.040 --> 0:22:38.200 he's likely to win is when they want to lose. 0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:46.080 And I also believe Houston will be telling Lovey Smith 0:22:47.560 --> 0:22:52.120 that winning this game is not an option. Figure out 0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:56.840 a way to lose this. This is such a fascinating 0:22:56.960 --> 0:23:03.600 spot where one day there is going to be an 0:23:03.720 --> 0:23:09.280 NFL team that just says league integrity be damned. 0:23:09.560 --> 0:23:13.000