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Review the 10 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: disclosures and disclaimers at CBO dot com slash us underscore disclaimers. 11 00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 3: Welcome in episode one fourteen, our final regular season gambling 12 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:52,639 Speaker 3: show of the year, and before we do. 13 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,520 Speaker 4: Yeah we did last week and our season records. 14 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,240 Speaker 3: Now is of course the time to remind everyone how 15 00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 3: dominant we all were as a collective. If you guys 16 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 3: took my preseason gambling advice. Now, I've done this on 17 00:01:07,000 --> 00:01:10,039 Speaker 3: a few shows, but it's making me feel better about life, 18 00:01:10,040 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 3: so I'm doing it again. We gave you Jacksonville over 19 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 3: six and a half, cash it, Kent City over ten 20 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 3: and a half, cash it, San Francisco over nine and 21 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:24,880 Speaker 3: a half, cash it Tampa under eleven and a half. 22 00:01:24,959 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 3: We called that our bet of the year, cash it. 23 00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:32,839 Speaker 3: So that's four winners. New England, we gave you under 24 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 3: eight and a half, Gonna come down to the wire. 25 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 3: They're sitting at eight wins. We'll see Indy, we gave 26 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 3: you over nine and a half, no good. Giants, we 27 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 3: gave you over seven and a half, no good. And 28 00:01:46,959 --> 00:01:51,160 Speaker 3: then Baltimore over over ten and a half. Gonna come 29 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 3: down to the wire. Not looking great though, because they're underdogs. 30 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 3: So we have four wins locked in, two losses locked in, 31 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,280 Speaker 3: and two that are gonna come down to Week seventeen. 32 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 4: We also gave you Seattle, the Jets, Atlanta and New 33 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:07,279 Speaker 4: England parlay. 34 00:02:06,880 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 3: Do all missed the playoffs might at even money, Gonna 35 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:11,040 Speaker 3: come down to the wire. 36 00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:12,679 Speaker 4: Seattle and New England so love. 37 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 3: We gave you Cleveland to miss the playoffs minus won 38 00:02:16,160 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 3: seventy locked in for a month, Denver to missed the 39 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:24,640 Speaker 3: playoffs at plus money locked in forever. New England missed 40 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 3: the playoffs at minus two hundred, Gonna come down to 41 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:32,800 Speaker 3: the wire. And then our long shot parlay of division 42 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 3: winners did not come through thanks to the Colts. 43 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:39,880 Speaker 4: And then we have just sitting out there like. 44 00:02:39,880 --> 00:02:45,639 Speaker 3: My fourth child, my fifty to one one dime ticket 45 00:02:46,000 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 3: on a Chiefs Niners super Bowl exacta. That's college tuition 46 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 3: for more than a year for your wonderful sister, that 47 00:02:57,160 --> 00:03:01,520 Speaker 3: tearing back from colleges right now. Or that's a hell 48 00:03:01,560 --> 00:03:06,240 Speaker 3: of a hell of a weekend for your pops in Vegas. 49 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 3: See if we can flip that from one year college 50 00:03:08,680 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 3: tuition to four years college tuition. 51 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:11,600 Speaker 4: We'll see. 52 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 3: But that ticket is sitting there in a lock box 53 00:03:15,120 --> 00:03:19,080 Speaker 3: in my heart and on a betting app not to 54 00:03:19,080 --> 00:03:22,920 Speaker 3: be named. So that was, you know, preseason, just crushing 55 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:27,960 Speaker 3: the world week two week demons has been you know, 56 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:31,160 Speaker 3: it's been a bit of a struggle. So last week, 57 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 3: we gave you Miami plus two and a half is 58 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 3: the right move. They lost by two. That's a winner. 59 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:39,800 Speaker 4: Got a little lucky. 60 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:42,280 Speaker 3: We're gonna admit they were down nine. We gave you 61 00:03:42,320 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 3: Arizona plus three and a half. All of a sudden 62 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,560 Speaker 3: didn't kick off. They're like, we're starting David blow and 63 00:03:48,600 --> 00:03:51,440 Speaker 3: there were six point dogs, but it covered anyway. I 64 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 3: told you Desmond Ritter should not be trusted to be favored. 65 00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 3: But that's where the good fortune kind of ended. We 66 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,440 Speaker 3: told you which San Francisco minus ten that they'd only 67 00:04:02,480 --> 00:04:04,280 Speaker 3: need fourteen points to cover that. 68 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think. 69 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 3: They scored somewhere in the thirties and they didn't. 70 00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 2: Cover thirty seven forty or something like that. 71 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 4: It wasn't great. You know, it wasn't great. Thirty seven 72 00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 4: thirty four. 73 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:18,360 Speaker 3: Maybe it was the playoffs four team, Oh that we gave. 74 00:04:18,560 --> 00:04:21,800 Speaker 3: We gave you Minnesota plus three and a half. They 75 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:27,279 Speaker 3: lost by roughly fifty Would Minnesota plus thirty five have 76 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 3: covered that game? 77 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 4: Let me check? I was that game forty one to three? 78 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 2: Was it? 79 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 3: Whatever it was, it wasn't good. And then of course, 80 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 3: as we discussed on yesterday's show, Uh, we also had 81 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 3: Cincinnati Buffalo and we we covered that quite a bit 82 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:47,760 Speaker 3: on Thursday's pod, everything surrounding Tom Hamlin. But that's obviously 83 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 3: we're just that game is no action on all fronts. 84 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 3: So that was a two and two week. Oh they 85 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,560 Speaker 3: lost forty one seventeen, so plus thirty five would have 86 00:04:57,600 --> 00:04:59,400 Speaker 3: covered for the Vikings, but plus three and a. 87 00:04:59,400 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 4: Half did not. 88 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 3: So that puts our record for the season at a 89 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:10,039 Speaker 3: pitifull thirty nine, forty five and two are right move 90 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:15,159 Speaker 3: at six and eleve we typically only pick five games 91 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 3: a week. We are six games under five hundred, demons, 92 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 3: all now hand the rings to you for a moment. 93 00:05:20,520 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 5: Yes, so I've got a little proposition for you. Well, 94 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 5: the good news is, well, the good news and the 95 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,440 Speaker 5: bad news. Sorry, you cannot finish the regular season above 96 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:31,320 Speaker 5: five hundred, even with a five and oh week. 97 00:05:31,360 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 3: Yeah that's the math that I was just realizing. Six 98 00:05:33,880 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 3: games under five and oh can't get there. 99 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 4: Uh huh. 100 00:05:37,160 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 2: But the good news is you are sixteen to nine 101 00:05:39,760 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 2: in divisional games. 102 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 3: Really sixty you know, some small say those are the 103 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:50,159 Speaker 3: hardest games to pick, the divisional contest, And I'm. 104 00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 4: Sixty four ats and divisional games. 105 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 5: Okay, go ahead, all right, So luckily, luckily, we have 106 00:05:56,839 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 5: sixteen divisional games this week, all divisional games. 107 00:06:00,320 --> 00:06:01,120 Speaker 4: The final weekend. 108 00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:03,680 Speaker 2: Yep. Yeah, if you keep up that pace, you could 109 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:04,880 Speaker 2: end up over five hundred. 110 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 4: Uh huh. 111 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 2: Here is my final offer of the regular season. 112 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 4: Oh, an early show offer. Yeah, we usually save this 113 00:06:11,160 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 4: for the very end. 114 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,280 Speaker 5: You bet every game for a chance to finish over 115 00:06:15,360 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 5: five hundred. 116 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 2: Do you accept this offer? All right? 117 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 3: This listen, the theme of this show has been responsible gambling. 118 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 3: You have learned some hard lessons about responsible gambling. We 119 00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 3: have talked to the audience about how every week you've 120 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 3: got to put the games into different buckets. Your be carefuls, 121 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 3: your stay aways, you're perfectly priced, and then your actual bets. 122 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:51,000 Speaker 3: There is no week that exemplifies the necessity of sticking 123 00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:56,640 Speaker 3: to a responsible gambling strategy like Week eighteen, when you 124 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:59,480 Speaker 3: have backups in the game, when you have teams pulling 125 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 3: their starters without saying when you have one team that's 126 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 3: playing hard but then sees that the only reason they 127 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 3: were playing hard was let me give you an example. 128 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:12,840 Speaker 3: Eagles are playing the Giants and the Cowboys are playing Washington. 129 00:07:13,000 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 3: The Cowboys got to play hard. They could be the 130 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 3: one seed, they could win the division. But then they 131 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 3: see at halftime of these simultaneous games the Eagles are 132 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:23,160 Speaker 3: up twenty. They're like, oh, well they're not going to lose. 133 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 3: We're now locked into the five. We can pull our starters. 134 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,280 Speaker 3: It is the hardest week to handicap. It would be 135 00:07:29,360 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 3: the most ridiculous week to bet all of the games 136 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 3: on the sling. However, I have a streak. 137 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 4: On the line. 138 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:43,720 Speaker 3: Since I've been on television, I have never finished a 139 00:07:43,760 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 3: year below five hundred. Now again, the smart thing would 140 00:07:47,960 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 3: be stick with my five games, go three and two, 141 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 3: finish a few games below five hundred, take my medicine. 142 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:58,080 Speaker 4: But I am not to take my medicine type. So 143 00:07:58,200 --> 00:07:59,480 Speaker 4: here's what I'm going to do. 144 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 3: I don't feel comfortable really discussing or gambling on the 145 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 3: games involving the Bills and the Bengals. I think it's 146 00:08:09,040 --> 00:08:13,680 Speaker 3: kind of poor form, especially with as we're recording this 147 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 3: still so much unknown about DeMar and then from the 148 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:21,760 Speaker 3: Bengals perspective about what their future schedule is going to be. 149 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,720 Speaker 3: So let's just take them out of the running. Bengals 150 00:08:25,800 --> 00:08:28,240 Speaker 3: Ravens and Bengals Patriots. 151 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 4: Take that out. 152 00:08:28,680 --> 00:08:33,080 Speaker 3: That leaves us with fourteen games. If you revise the 153 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 3: offer to fourteen games, I will accept it. 154 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:39,600 Speaker 4: Will you revise the. 155 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 3: Offer fourteen all the games except for the Bills in 156 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 3: the Bengals game. 157 00:08:43,880 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 4: Can that be the offer? 158 00:08:45,480 --> 00:08:45,960 Speaker 2: Of course? 159 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:47,360 Speaker 4: Okay, then I accept it. 160 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 3: For the record, if my math is corrected, six games 161 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 3: under five hundred, I would need to go ten and 162 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:59,760 Speaker 3: four to be five hundred, and a crackling hot eleven 163 00:08:59,760 --> 00:09:02,960 Speaker 3: and three to finish above five hundred. 164 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 4: We can do it. 165 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:09,280 Speaker 3: So these are all knicks picks. There are no stayaways, 166 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:12,439 Speaker 3: there are no be carefuls, there are no perfectly priced 167 00:09:12,760 --> 00:09:16,080 Speaker 3: We're doing fourteen picks today. We're doing them all. I 168 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 3: do have a few that I like more than others, 169 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:24,280 Speaker 3: and I will let the audience know what those few are, okay, 170 00:09:24,960 --> 00:09:28,319 Speaker 3: or we will go somewhat in chronological order, but not exactly. 171 00:09:28,559 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 3: We'll start with Saturday's games. Kansas City at Vegas. Kansas 172 00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:37,920 Speaker 3: City minus nine and a half, all right at Vegas 173 00:09:38,280 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 3: for the second straight year. Kansas City is the first 174 00:09:43,640 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 3: game of Week eighteen. 175 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 4: Right. 176 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 3: Kansas City, also, if you guys have noticed, has not 177 00:09:51,679 --> 00:09:56,240 Speaker 3: been great at covering spreads, particularly big spreads. Vegas, on 178 00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 3: the other hand, looked awesome last week. 179 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 4: Ah, I have been. 180 00:10:00,520 --> 00:10:03,760 Speaker 3: Pretty smart on not including Kansas City as a big 181 00:10:03,800 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 3: favorite throughout these picks. 182 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:11,240 Speaker 4: With that set, I think the Raiders. 183 00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:18,480 Speaker 3: Another double digit blown lead last week, they can see 184 00:10:18,520 --> 00:10:19,079 Speaker 3: the end of. 185 00:10:19,040 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 4: Their season on the horizon. 186 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 3: Last week, they went into that game technically still alive 187 00:10:24,400 --> 00:10:27,640 Speaker 3: for the playoffs. As unlikely as it seemed and as 188 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:31,400 Speaker 3: odd as it was that they were starting stile, I 189 00:10:31,440 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 3: think this is a game the Raiders play to stay healthy. 190 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 4: Get into the offseason. 191 00:10:37,040 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 3: There's nothing a player hates more than getting dinged in 192 00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 3: the final game of the year, to where instead of 193 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 3: being able to go to a warm location for their vacation, 194 00:10:48,920 --> 00:10:51,120 Speaker 3: they have to stay at the facility in rehab. 195 00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 4: The Chiefs, on the other. 196 00:10:52,760 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 3: Hand, need to put an impressive performance together before they 197 00:10:59,600 --> 00:11:02,960 Speaker 3: have appears right now to be the bye and time off. 198 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,680 Speaker 4: The Chiefs are going to lay it on the Raiders. 199 00:11:07,280 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 3: Patrick Mahomes I don't think he's gonna get there, but 200 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:14,240 Speaker 3: he's four hundred and twenty yards away from the all 201 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:18,520 Speaker 3: time single season passing record. Travis Kelcey has not scored 202 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:22,280 Speaker 3: a touchdown in five weeks, but Davante had two touchdown 203 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 3: to catch his last week, so Davante is now up 204 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 3: by two, so Travis Kelcey can try to at least 205 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:30,920 Speaker 3: tie Devonte Adams. He has three touchdown receptions. 206 00:11:30,440 --> 00:11:32,520 Speaker 4: Which I think he did last Searonne. 207 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 3: He's done this year. He was either against the charge 208 00:11:34,040 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 3: of the Raiders regardless. I think the Chiefs put it 209 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 3: on the Raiders offensively and defensively. I think Stidham goes 210 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 3: back to the player he was for the first five 211 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:47,959 Speaker 3: years of his career, not the player he was in 212 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,960 Speaker 3: that miraculous game against the Niners. All right, so Chiefs 213 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 3: laying nine and a half. Now the Saturday night name. 214 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,760 Speaker 4: Jacksonville's a six point favorite at Tennessee. 215 00:12:01,559 --> 00:12:08,640 Speaker 3: So when I was going through this de Monsey, everything screamed, Oh, Tennessee. 216 00:12:10,040 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 3: There's a lot of reasons to go with Tennessee. You 217 00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 3: have a few of them. Go ahead, I'll I'll let 218 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 3: you tell me some of the reasons to pick Tennessee. 219 00:12:18,640 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 2: Well, this is a classic Mike Rabill cover. Yeah. 220 00:12:22,800 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 5: Uh, Tennessee's obviously all right, Yeah, Tennessee's coming off of 221 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:26,640 Speaker 5: a bunch of rests. 222 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 2: Yeah, and he covers seventy percent of his games as 223 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 2: an underdog. 224 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:37,360 Speaker 3: Okay, that's all true. And Tennessee's been awful for more 225 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:42,120 Speaker 3: than a month. Right, they're starting Josh Dobbs Jacksonville. For 226 00:12:42,200 --> 00:12:44,600 Speaker 3: both teams, it's to win in your in scenario, I 227 00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:49,239 Speaker 3: understand that Jacksonville actually technically could lose, and if Pittsburgh, 228 00:12:49,280 --> 00:12:52,560 Speaker 3: New England and Miami all lose, Jacksonville gets the wild 229 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:56,479 Speaker 3: card and there's two AFC South playoff teams, So Jacksonville 230 00:12:56,480 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 3: has a slim change of making the playoffs even with 231 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 3: a loss, but the winner gets the four and it's 232 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:04,679 Speaker 3: almost more likely and Tennessee loses, they're done. 233 00:13:04,720 --> 00:13:07,240 Speaker 4: No matter what, all of. 234 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:16,000 Speaker 3: My smart gambling tendency say, take Tennessee verybele at least 235 00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 3: is going to keep it close. 236 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:21,320 Speaker 4: And I was ready to put in Tennessee. 237 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:25,720 Speaker 3: And then I thought of that, and I said, if 238 00:13:25,840 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 3: one thing this show has gotten right this year, it's 239 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,400 Speaker 3: our faith in the Prince that was promised. 240 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 4: And the only reason that our record. 241 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 3: Isn't better is because you assholes made me stop betting 242 00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,560 Speaker 3: on it right when they were about to go on 243 00:13:44,640 --> 00:13:47,240 Speaker 3: their winning streak. You guys put a ban on me, 244 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,360 Speaker 3: and because of that, I'm one in six betting on 245 00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:52,040 Speaker 3: the Jags. 246 00:13:52,440 --> 00:13:56,080 Speaker 4: Well, the ban has been lifted. I have not taken 247 00:13:56,160 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 4: full advantage of it the way I should have. And 248 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 4: the Jags minus. 249 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 3: Six, the Jags which brought your worst gambling moment of 250 00:14:05,160 --> 00:14:09,320 Speaker 3: the year, the overtime game against Dallas by winning the Jags, 251 00:14:09,520 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 3: which hurt my feelings so many times this year. 252 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 4: No, I'm simply saying. 253 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,040 Speaker 3: We have had a tortured history with the Jags this 254 00:14:18,160 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 3: year when we shouldn't have. I should have simply ignored 255 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,320 Speaker 3: you guys when you guys were telling me they're no good. 256 00:14:25,760 --> 00:14:34,000 Speaker 3: He's not a prince, all these things. Jags minus six. 257 00:14:34,520 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 2: We're not Chiefs and Jags so far? What could go roll? 258 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 4: What could go they? 259 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 3: I've been right about the Chiefs all year. I've been 260 00:14:42,400 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 3: right about the Jags all year, and my most important 261 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 3: weekend of the year, I'm not abandoning them. Now to Sunday, 262 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 3: Atlanta minus four against Tampa Bay. So I understand last 263 00:14:58,120 --> 00:15:01,040 Speaker 3: week I said, how can did you ever lay three 264 00:15:01,080 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 3: points with Desmond Ridder? 265 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:04,400 Speaker 2: Right? 266 00:15:05,280 --> 00:15:08,480 Speaker 3: And I took three and a half with the terrible 267 00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 3: Cardinals and ended up being David Blough purely on the 268 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 3: belief of how can you lay points with Desmond Ritter? 269 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 4: But this is where Week eighteen is tricky. 270 00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:23,680 Speaker 2: Okay, that's a really nasty line. 271 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:30,880 Speaker 3: Well, Tampa is claiming they are going to play their starters. 272 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:33,200 Speaker 4: I don't believe them. 273 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 3: I think Brady's gonna play a series or two and 274 00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:40,800 Speaker 3: then be pulled for Trask or Gabbert, whomever their backup 275 00:15:40,840 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 3: quarterback's going to be. 276 00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 4: I think Evans will be pulled. 277 00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:47,480 Speaker 3: I think all of their key players are coming out 278 00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 3: of this game, and usually even when you pull your 279 00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 3: key guys, you leave in your front line offensive lineman. 280 00:15:55,200 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 3: But some of their offensive linemen are dealing with injuries. 281 00:15:57,880 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 3: I think those guys will be pulled. So I believe 282 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:05,560 Speaker 3: Atlanta they're running attack and the fact that Tampa is 283 00:16:05,720 --> 00:16:08,640 Speaker 3: locked into the four seed is going to roll over 284 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,680 Speaker 3: in this game. So I will lay the four points 285 00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 3: with the Atlanta Falcons. 286 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,800 Speaker 5: That might have been the craziest like thought process that 287 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:18,720 Speaker 5: you'd explain to why. I mean, you're just banking on 288 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:19,760 Speaker 5: that happening, Like. 289 00:16:20,040 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 3: Yeah, I am banking on that happening. That is correct, 290 00:16:23,280 --> 00:16:26,200 Speaker 3: and I understand that I'm betting that right now. 291 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 2: It does. 292 00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 4: It's a lot of favorites, it would appear. I get that. 293 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:33,320 Speaker 3: I don't love that it's this many favorites to start with. 294 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 3: We'll get to some underdogs later. However, it should be 295 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 3: go ahead. 296 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 2: You are three to zero betting against Tom Brady this year. 297 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 3: Well, they listen, Tampa's been the worst covering team in 298 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 3: the league because Vegas has overvalued them throughout the season. 299 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,600 Speaker 3: But Atlanta, I believe he's gonna play hard and play 300 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 3: all their guys. Tampa is claiming they're going to play 301 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 3: their guys, I don't believe them. 302 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,120 Speaker 4: Atlanta minus four. 303 00:16:56,600 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 3: Next another favorite, Minnesota minus seven and a half at Chicago. 304 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,439 Speaker 3: So the logic on this you saw Justin Field's not playing. 305 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 3: Justin Field's not. 306 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:09,800 Speaker 4: Playing in this game, which kind of sucks for him. 307 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 3: Because he is what record was yep, about sixty yards 308 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 3: away from breaking Lamar Jackson's single season quarterback rushing record. 309 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 4: He can't do it, though. He can't do it because 310 00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:21,879 Speaker 4: he's not playing. 311 00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,840 Speaker 2: Wait, who'd you say he's not playing Justin Fields? 312 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:25,640 Speaker 4: What? Ad Ice? Maybe? 313 00:17:25,760 --> 00:17:27,960 Speaker 3: Oh Justin Field? I thought you said Justin Jefferson. No, 314 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 3: Justin Field is not playing. He's not playing, so he 315 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:36,320 Speaker 3: can't break Lamar Jackson's single season rushing record. Minnesota is 316 00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:40,720 Speaker 3: coming off a terrible performance. They could get the two seed, 317 00:17:40,760 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 3: but they won't. They are essentially locked into the three. 318 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 3: Now is there a piece of me that otherwise would 319 00:17:50,240 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 3: be concerned about Minnesota? 320 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:55,520 Speaker 4: Remember what I said earlier? 321 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:58,960 Speaker 3: I said you've got to be careful in Week eighteen 322 00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,479 Speaker 3: that the a team, you lay a lot of points 323 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:04,920 Speaker 3: with them, and then at halftime they're like, wait, we're 324 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 3: playing for nothing. If the Niners win against the Rams 325 00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 3: or against the Cardinals, pardon me, which they will. Minnesota's 326 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 3: playing for nothing. They're the three seeds. However, the Vikings 327 00:18:18,359 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 3: game is at one o'clock. The Niners game is at 328 00:18:21,640 --> 00:18:27,120 Speaker 3: four thirty, so the Vikings will literally not know anything 329 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 3: about the Niners result until that game until they're done, 330 00:18:32,480 --> 00:18:36,800 Speaker 3: so they will play their entire game believing we're alive 331 00:18:36,840 --> 00:18:39,679 Speaker 3: for the two we have to win and we have 332 00:18:39,720 --> 00:18:42,760 Speaker 3: to have San Francisco lose. San Francisco will kick off 333 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:47,520 Speaker 3: when their game is over, so that incentivizes the Vikings 334 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:50,159 Speaker 3: to play hard. The fact that they're coming off their 335 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:51,159 Speaker 3: worst game of the season. 336 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 2: Couldn't the players think about it just like you think 337 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 2: about it? Though? 338 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:55,320 Speaker 4: What do you mean? 339 00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,119 Speaker 5: Like Minnesota knows like we could win, but like, what 340 00:18:58,160 --> 00:19:00,560 Speaker 5: are the chances of San Francisco losing Arizona? 341 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,360 Speaker 4: Well, yes, but here's that. You're right. 342 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,239 Speaker 3: The players can think about it like that, but the 343 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:07,960 Speaker 3: coaches won't. And the coaches, like I feel like football 344 00:19:07,960 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 3: players win, they're in the game, have to play hard 345 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 3: because of the dangers around. 346 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:15,640 Speaker 4: Right, what happens if the coaches pull players. 347 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 3: The coaches aren't gonna pull their guys, especially because they 348 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 3: can't get the bye so they need to have some 349 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 3: type of good feeling momentum going into their playoff game, 350 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:29,480 Speaker 3: which is coming up in a week after this game 351 00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 3: against the Giants. 352 00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 4: Now, let's go to Chicago. 353 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:41,719 Speaker 3: Chicago alive for the number one pick if they lose, 354 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,520 Speaker 3: and you might say, well, Houston's not gonna win. We're 355 00:19:44,560 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 3: gonna talk about that game in a moment. Houston's playing Indy. 356 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:50,240 Speaker 3: They of course could win because anyone could beat Indy, 357 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 3: so like that, it's on the board. Conversely, if Chicago 358 00:19:55,840 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 3: were to win, they go from but potentially they could 359 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 3: lose the number two pick because they're three and thirteen. 360 00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:08,159 Speaker 3: Arizona and Denver are both four and twelve, so Chicago 361 00:20:08,840 --> 00:20:09,719 Speaker 3: wants to lose. 362 00:20:10,760 --> 00:20:13,879 Speaker 4: I would love this game so much more at seven. 363 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 3: And I will tell you right now to the betting public, 364 00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 3: if you're when we're doing this is seven and a half. 365 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,399 Speaker 3: This is a game I would wait until Sunday morning. 366 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 3: If the line moves against you and goes to eight, 367 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,640 Speaker 3: no worries. But if it moves for you and goes 368 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:32,320 Speaker 3: to seven, that is a huge benefit. But I think 369 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 3: Minnesota plays a good game. I think Minnesota plays motivated. 370 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 3: I think Chicago actively wants to lose and is not 371 00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,359 Speaker 3: starting justin fields for all those reasons, all lay seven 372 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,880 Speaker 3: and a half with Minnesota and now another favorite. We're 373 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:49,400 Speaker 3: getting to the underdog shortly. 374 00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 4: I promise. 375 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:56,879 Speaker 3: Indy laying two and a half against Houston. So this 376 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,280 Speaker 3: right here is one of the oddest. 377 00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 4: Game of the week. 378 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:10,720 Speaker 3: And here's why Indy is triple incentivized to lose. Okay, 379 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:16,440 Speaker 3: number one is there, four, eleven, and one. With a win, 380 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:21,960 Speaker 3: they could fall out of the top five of the 381 00:21:22,040 --> 00:21:27,040 Speaker 3: draft and end up drafting six. With a loss, theoretically 382 00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,720 Speaker 3: they could be drafting as high as three. Probably they'd 383 00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 3: be drafting four or five. Okay, But more importantly, with 384 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 3: a loss, Houston, their divisional rival, would lose the number 385 00:21:43,600 --> 00:21:48,120 Speaker 3: one pick. Assuming Chicago loses, Houston would with a win, 386 00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 3: would go to the number two pick. So if you're Indy, okay, 387 00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:59,280 Speaker 3: you really want to throw this game. You prevent Bryce 388 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 3: Young from growing up in your division. You screw Houston, 389 00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,520 Speaker 3: you help your draft pick. So I'm making all the 390 00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:12,160 Speaker 3: case and Houston plays hard, they're just no good and 391 00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 3: I'm making all the case for taking Houston plus the points. 392 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,679 Speaker 3: So why does it say on the screen Indie minus 393 00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:23,320 Speaker 3: two and a half. Let me tell you, because if 394 00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:32,399 Speaker 3: we know anything about Jeff's Saturday that the one time 395 00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 3: he's likely to win is when they want to lose. 396 00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 3: And I also believe Houston will be telling Lovey Smith 397 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:52,120 Speaker 3: that winning this game is not an option. Figure out 398 00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:56,840 Speaker 3: a way to lose this. This is such a fascinating 399 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 3: spot where one day there is going to be an 400 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:09,280 Speaker 3: NFL team that just says league integrity be damned. 401 00:23:09,560 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 4: And in a spot like this, let's how the quarterback 402 00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:13,840 Speaker 4: though picks. 403 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, it takes the opening kickoff, runs out in the 404 00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:20,520 Speaker 3: back of the end zone, self safeties, just makes it blatant. 405 00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:24,000 Speaker 3: We are get as soon as they're trailing in the game, 406 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 3: takes knees. 407 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:28,040 Speaker 4: The rest of the way just says screw it. Well, 408 00:23:28,240 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 4: the league would kill them, but it's the one day 409 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:32,200 Speaker 4: it'll happen. 410 00:23:32,600 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 3: I don't think that's this week, but I do think 411 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,359 Speaker 3: Indy screws up and the Jeff Saturday era ends with 412 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 3: a flourish of a win that puts the number one 413 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,840 Speaker 3: pick in their divisional rivals hands and knocks them out 414 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:48,640 Speaker 3: of the top five of the draft. Indie minus two 415 00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:53,560 Speaker 3: and a half next Miami catching one against. 416 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:54,640 Speaker 4: The Jets are first dog. 417 00:23:56,080 --> 00:24:01,200 Speaker 3: So this is in a normal week when I wasn't 418 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 3: doing everything I possibly could do to get above five hundred, 419 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,720 Speaker 3: this would be an obvious stay away. Miami's lost five 420 00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:11,920 Speaker 3: in a row and we don't know who their quarterback is, right, 421 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:19,919 Speaker 3: I think Teddy Bridgewater is gonna play. Teddy Bridgewater's injury. 422 00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,560 Speaker 3: Yes it's on his throwing hand, but it is a 423 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 3: dislocated pinky. Miami has to win, and if they win, 424 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 3: I think they'll make the playoffs because I don't think 425 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:37,760 Speaker 3: the Patriots are beating the Bills, so Miami, this would 426 00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:42,960 Speaker 3: prevent an all time collapse from them eight and three 427 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:44,840 Speaker 3: to out of the playoffs. 428 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:46,800 Speaker 4: The Jets, on the other. 429 00:24:46,680 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 3: Hand, have been bad for two and a half months, okay, 430 00:24:55,320 --> 00:25:00,719 Speaker 3: since beating the Dolphins forty to seventeen. Listen, I'm going 431 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,080 Speaker 3: to go through their whole schedule. Started started the year 432 00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 3: losing the Ravens. So what then got very lucky against 433 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 3: the Browns. Remember that was the game Nick Chubb didn't 434 00:25:09,920 --> 00:25:12,760 Speaker 3: go down or Kareem Hunt didn't go down, whatever it was. 435 00:25:13,080 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 3: They were down thirteen in the final two minutes and 436 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:19,520 Speaker 3: won the game. They beat the Browns thirty one to thirty. 437 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:21,600 Speaker 3: They then got crushed by the Bengals, who were at 438 00:25:21,640 --> 00:25:25,639 Speaker 3: the time going two. They then beat the Steelers annihilated 439 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:29,800 Speaker 3: the Dolphins in the first game the Dolphins had without Tua. 440 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 3: That was the game where Teddy started, got hurt on 441 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,080 Speaker 3: the first play and they had to go to the 442 00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 3: guy who might be starting this week, the third string quarterback, 443 00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:42,199 Speaker 3: Skyler's thank you, I forgot his name, Skyler Thompson. The 444 00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 3: next week they beat the Packers. The next week they 445 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 3: beat the Broncos back when people thought that meant something. 446 00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 3: Since then, the Patriots beat him. Then they beat the 447 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,800 Speaker 3: Bills in one of the best wins anybody's had all 448 00:25:56,920 --> 00:26:00,560 Speaker 3: year since that Bill's win, the Patriot to beat him 449 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,399 Speaker 3: again in a game that was three to three until 450 00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:07,200 Speaker 3: the final punt, remember, and then the punt return. They 451 00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,840 Speaker 3: beat the Bears, who haven't won in three months. They 452 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:14,840 Speaker 3: then lost to the Bills, lost to the Lions, lost 453 00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 3: to the print that was promised, got crushed by the Seahawks, 454 00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:20,440 Speaker 3: oh I left out, lost to the Vikings as well. 455 00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:24,160 Speaker 3: They have lost five in a row. They have scored 456 00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:31,159 Speaker 3: in their last four games twelve, seventeen, three, and six. 457 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:34,919 Speaker 3: This is a dead team walking that is now officially 458 00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:39,080 Speaker 3: eliminated from the playoffs. Last week, they were still alive 459 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 3: and you know what they did, scored six points against 460 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 3: a terrible Seattle defense. Miami doesn't need great quarterback play 461 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,639 Speaker 3: to win this game. Miami's playoff hopes are alive. 462 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:53,160 Speaker 2: So what about the name Mike Glennon. 463 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:55,720 Speaker 5: I think the Dolphins might have signed him this week, 464 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:57,760 Speaker 5: and that might be who you're putting your forte. 465 00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:58,400 Speaker 4: Zawyer's the thing. 466 00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:01,160 Speaker 3: Mike Glennon was signed to be a backup, and now 467 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 3: Miami has had a bunch of quarterbacks injured. I understand that. 468 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:09,040 Speaker 3: I said they don't need great quarterback play. Miami plus one. 469 00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:09,399 Speaker 4: Is the pick. 470 00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 3: Lastly, for this segment, Carolina getting three and a half 471 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:19,480 Speaker 3: at New Orleans. All right, you have some information here 472 00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,400 Speaker 3: that I didn't know about about my history in New Orleans. 473 00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,359 Speaker 5: Go ahead, you bet against No more than any team 474 00:27:25,640 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 5: other others would. 475 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:28,360 Speaker 4: Be short for New Orleans. 476 00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:32,399 Speaker 3: But go ahead, I bet against New Orleans. Demands not 477 00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 3: having a sharp at. 478 00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,800 Speaker 2: Shit time to fade yourself. 479 00:27:37,480 --> 00:27:41,320 Speaker 3: So here's the deal. It's like no New Orleans. Yeah 480 00:27:41,359 --> 00:27:44,280 Speaker 3: in oh for New Orleans. That's in all caps that's 481 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,880 Speaker 3: they're trying to signal to you. It's shorthand for the team, 482 00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:49,879 Speaker 3: just so you know. When it says car I'm not 483 00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 3: actually betting on a car it's short for Carolina. 484 00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:53,840 Speaker 4: So here's the deal. 485 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,920 Speaker 3: New Orleans hot right now, they've won four in a row. 486 00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,879 Speaker 3: Carolina just got devastated last week, a chance to win 487 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,840 Speaker 3: the division up fourteen and fell apart. So why would 488 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:14,720 Speaker 3: I be picking Carolina. I think Carolina likes Steve Wilkes 489 00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 3: the players, and I think they want him to be 490 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 3: the head coach next year. I don't know that he 491 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,520 Speaker 3: will be, but I think it's what the players want. 492 00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:28,600 Speaker 3: Players almost always want the coach to stay in place 493 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:32,760 Speaker 3: because their jobs are safe. When a new coach comes in, 494 00:28:32,800 --> 00:28:35,399 Speaker 3: there is massive roster churn. So it has to be 495 00:28:35,400 --> 00:28:38,560 Speaker 3: a really disastrous coach for the players to want the 496 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,480 Speaker 3: coach fire because their jobs are in jeopardy. I think 497 00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 3: they like Wilkes. I'm also getting three and a half points. 498 00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,800 Speaker 3: I also think they can run the ball on most 499 00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 3: teams Tampa, they weren't great running the ball against them, 500 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 3: Hanging run the ball there. Darnald kind of playing for 501 00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,640 Speaker 3: his NFL future a bit. He looked like he was 502 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 3: going to be relegated to career backup. He's had a 503 00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:07,520 Speaker 3: decent little run here in Carolina. We'll see what Carolina 504 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,240 Speaker 3: lands in the quarterback musical chairs next year. A lot 505 00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:15,520 Speaker 3: of motivated Carolina Panthers, like their coach, want to end 506 00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:16,800 Speaker 3: the year on a high note. 507 00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,040 Speaker 4: Have been better than New Orleans this year. 508 00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:22,160 Speaker 3: New Orleans not quite as good as the little winning 509 00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:25,920 Speaker 3: streak suggests. Let me remind you, guys, for the for 510 00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 3: the Saints, pardon me what the winning streak has actually been, 511 00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:32,520 Speaker 3: because four in a row sounds good. 512 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 4: I'm sorry, three in a row sounds good. This would 513 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 4: be four in a row. 514 00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:41,520 Speaker 3: But those wins are against the Falcons who stink, the 515 00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:46,360 Speaker 3: Browns who stink, and then a great win last week 516 00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:51,000 Speaker 3: against the Eagles that to me, was there. 517 00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 4: The end of their season. We beat the Eagles. We 518 00:29:56,160 --> 00:29:58,240 Speaker 4: showed we're better than you know what I mean. 519 00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:02,080 Speaker 3: Our records suggests if we hadn't blown that game against 520 00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,800 Speaker 3: the Bucks a few weeks ago, we'd be right there. 521 00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:11,560 Speaker 3: But the Saints offense, it's last five weeks zero sixteen 522 00:30:12,040 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 3: twenty one, seventeen twenty. I don't want to lay three 523 00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:18,160 Speaker 3: and a half points with a team that can't break 524 00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,840 Speaker 3: twenty one points. Carolina is gonna be able to run 525 00:30:20,880 --> 00:30:22,840 Speaker 3: the ball. Caroline's gonna play hard. 526 00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 4: For their coach. Carolina plus three and a half. 527 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 3: So for our first half of picks, Kansas City minus 528 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:34,280 Speaker 3: nine and a half, Jacksonville minus six, Atlanta minus four, 529 00:30:34,680 --> 00:30:37,560 Speaker 3: Minnesota minus seven and a half, Indie minus two and 530 00:30:37,600 --> 00:30:41,280 Speaker 3: a half, Miami plus one, Carolina plus three and a half. 531 00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 3: A bunch more underdogs, and are the rest of the slate. 532 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:51,640 Speaker 3: Next What's Right? Episode one, fourteen hour Week eighteen gambling Show. 533 00:30:57,120 --> 00:30:59,800 Speaker 6: This episode is brought to you by Unstoppable. Discover the 534 00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 6: aspiring true story about Anthony Robliss, who defined every expectation 535 00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,239 Speaker 6: to become a national wrestling champion, and Unstoppable, a new 536 00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 6: original movie from Amazon MGM Studios and director William Goldenberg. 537 00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 6: Evoking the excitement and camaraderie of classic sports dramas and 538 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,560 Speaker 6: thrilling wrestling matches. Unstoppable features an all star ensemble cast 539 00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:20,160 Speaker 6: including Jirelle Jerome, Jennifer Lopez, Don Cheatle, Michael Pania, and 540 00:31:20,160 --> 00:31:24,400 Speaker 6: Bobby Canavali. Watch Unstoppable now exclusively on Amazon Prime Video. 541 00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,200 Speaker 3: All Right, Welcome, back in episode one fourteen, our Week 542 00:31:28,240 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 3: eighteen gambling show. We're picking fourteen of the sixteen games. 543 00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,560 Speaker 3: We're leaving the Buffalo game in the Cincinnati game out. 544 00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 3: We need to go ten and four to finish the 545 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 3: year at five hundred, eleven and three finish the year 546 00:31:39,440 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 3: above five hundred. In our first segment, we picked five 547 00:31:43,560 --> 00:31:48,600 Speaker 3: favorites and two dogs. In this segment, we're gonna it's 548 00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,120 Speaker 3: a little more even, but we're still going with more 549 00:31:51,200 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 3: favorites than we typically would because of some of the 550 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:58,560 Speaker 3: dynamics of this week that are at play with who's 551 00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,800 Speaker 3: motivated and who's not. We will start with Pittsburgh laying 552 00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:05,760 Speaker 3: two and a half against Cleveland. This is very simple. 553 00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,000 Speaker 3: This is a Mike Tomlin pick. This is a desperate 554 00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:12,880 Speaker 3: Pittsburgh team. Pick a Pittsburgh team that is not only 555 00:32:13,040 --> 00:32:16,720 Speaker 3: a live mathematically for the playoffs, but a Pittsburgh team 556 00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:19,760 Speaker 3: that they're like. Okay, So we need Miami to lose 557 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 3: to the Jets, they've lost five in a row, and 558 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:26,120 Speaker 3: we need New England to lose to the Bills, and 559 00:32:26,400 --> 00:32:29,280 Speaker 3: the Bills have dominated New England over the last two years. 560 00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,320 Speaker 3: If we win this game, we're in Conversely, the Browns, 561 00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:37,560 Speaker 3: even though they won this past week. It's not the 562 00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,640 Speaker 3: time for it right now. But the offseason will be. 563 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:43,840 Speaker 4: Deshaun Watson conversation. 564 00:32:44,600 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 3: That is going to be a tricky one because when 565 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,680 Speaker 3: we say he's been underwhelming, that does not really do 566 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:58,560 Speaker 3: it justice Deshaun Watson. This is what he has done 567 00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,880 Speaker 3: thus far. His first game one hundred and thirty yards, 568 00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 3: one pick, no touchdowns. His second game back two hundred 569 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:10,360 Speaker 3: and seventy yards, one pick, one touchdown in a loss 570 00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:15,360 Speaker 3: against Baltimore, one hundred and sixty yards, against New Orleans 571 00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:20,040 Speaker 3: one hundred and thirty five yards, and against Washington one 572 00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 3: hundred and sixty nine yards. He has not been good flatly. 573 00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 3: Pittsburgh has to have the game. I'm laying less than 574 00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:31,440 Speaker 3: a field goal. I will admit there is part of 575 00:33:31,440 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 3: me that feels like, is this thing gonna be sixteen 576 00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 3: to fourteen and I lose on the hook. Maybe, but 577 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,880 Speaker 3: laying three and a half. I wouldn't feel great about 578 00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,880 Speaker 3: laying two and a half. I'm fine with Pittsburgh minus 579 00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:44,280 Speaker 3: two and a half in a game they have to 580 00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:51,200 Speaker 3: have next Denver at the Chargers. Denver is the two 581 00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,240 Speaker 3: and a half point favorite and we are picking Denver. 582 00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:59,040 Speaker 5: Pretty ironic why I been given the way you've talked 583 00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,360 Speaker 5: about Russ and the bronc this entire season. 584 00:34:01,640 --> 00:34:04,520 Speaker 3: Okay, so a few things here. Denver is not one 585 00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,040 Speaker 3: of those teams that last game of the year were 586 00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 3: eliminated and managements like go ahead and lose, improve our 587 00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:11,160 Speaker 3: draft pick. 588 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 4: It's not their draft pick, Seattle's draft pick. First of all. 589 00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:18,000 Speaker 3: Second of all, this is another one of those games 590 00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:24,120 Speaker 3: where the actual timing of the games really matter. So 591 00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:30,759 Speaker 3: if Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, the Chargers are locked into 592 00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:36,680 Speaker 3: the five seeds. Baltimore Cincinnati kicks off at one PM. 593 00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:41,719 Speaker 3: This game kicks off at four point thirty. So if 594 00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:45,360 Speaker 3: you believe like I do, that Cincinnati is going to 595 00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 3: beat a Baltimore team that is almost surely going to 596 00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,440 Speaker 3: be starting Tyler Huntley, then what we are going to 597 00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:56,279 Speaker 3: have is a situation where the Chargers, who have been 598 00:34:56,440 --> 00:35:01,120 Speaker 3: ravaged by injury this year, cannot im improve their seed 599 00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:05,400 Speaker 3: and cannot fall backwards in the seeding. They will be 600 00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:10,400 Speaker 3: locked into the five spot. That's why they're the underdogs. Denver, 601 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:12,360 Speaker 3: on the other hand, showed some fight last week for 602 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:15,279 Speaker 3: Jerry Rosberg. The Chargers I don't think I think we're 603 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,279 Speaker 3: gonna see Chase Daniel. I don't think we're see keenan Allen. 604 00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:19,960 Speaker 3: I don't think we're seeing Mike Williams. I don't think 605 00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,160 Speaker 3: we're seeing Nicki Bosa. I don't think we're gonna see 606 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,279 Speaker 3: Derwin James. I think the Chargers are gonna give themselves 607 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:30,240 Speaker 3: a mini bye week assuming Baltimore loses. Now, if Baltimore wins, 608 00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 3: it gets a little more complicated on what the different 609 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:37,760 Speaker 3: scenarios are. But still assuming Baltimore loses, which I believe 610 00:35:37,800 --> 00:35:41,560 Speaker 3: they will, Chargers are locked into the five. They will 611 00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:44,960 Speaker 3: be playing for nothing. They will be playing backups. Denver 612 00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:47,759 Speaker 3: minus two and a half is our pick? Does that 613 00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:51,799 Speaker 3: make sense there? If Denver, if this game was at 614 00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,880 Speaker 3: the same time as Cincinnati Baltimore, I'd feel differently. But 615 00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,359 Speaker 3: this game being three and a half hours later means 616 00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 3: they can pull everyone or not even start guys. If that, 617 00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:03,080 Speaker 3: if Baltimore Cincinnati goes the way I think it will. 618 00:36:03,239 --> 00:36:09,719 Speaker 3: Next Giants getting fourteen at Philly it is flatly too 619 00:36:09,760 --> 00:36:13,520 Speaker 3: many points, even with the Giants playing backups when we 620 00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:17,560 Speaker 3: don't know if Jalen Hurts is going to play Philadelphia 621 00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,560 Speaker 3: needs this game. Obviously, they win the game. They're the 622 00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:23,839 Speaker 3: one seed. If not, they could fall all the way 623 00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,560 Speaker 3: to the three or to the five line. And they 624 00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 3: almost assuredly would fall at least to the two line, 625 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:32,840 Speaker 3: because I believe San Francisco more on them in a 626 00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:37,920 Speaker 3: minute's gonna beat Arizona. But the Giants, here's the thing 627 00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:42,680 Speaker 3: about the Giants playing backups. Their backups aren't much worse 628 00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,279 Speaker 3: than their starters. The Giants don't have a ton of talent. 629 00:36:46,600 --> 00:36:50,080 Speaker 3: The Giants are staying in games and beating teams for 630 00:36:50,320 --> 00:36:54,360 Speaker 3: coaching and hard play, which you will get from the backups. 631 00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:57,240 Speaker 3: Is Tyrod Taylor that much worse than Daniel Jones? 632 00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:57,759 Speaker 4: I don't know. 633 00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,360 Speaker 3: And so if the Giant starters were playing because the 634 00:37:02,400 --> 00:37:05,080 Speaker 3: Giants are locked into their seed, would they be getting 635 00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:09,360 Speaker 3: fourteen points? No, certainly not when Gardner Minshew might be 636 00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:12,120 Speaker 3: the quarterback in this game, and if it is Jalen Hurts, 637 00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,760 Speaker 3: I think it will be a very conservative Jalen Hurts 638 00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,040 Speaker 3: game plan, trying to make sure he doesn't get hit. 639 00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:21,319 Speaker 3: So the Giants getting fourteen points, it's flatly too many points. 640 00:37:21,360 --> 00:37:22,960 Speaker 4: Seems like you have a take on this demanse. 641 00:37:23,200 --> 00:37:25,000 Speaker 5: I mean, I think that line is kind of telling 642 00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,960 Speaker 5: you that Jayson Jalen Hurts is going to be playing. 643 00:37:27,920 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 2: They getting fourteen. 644 00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,640 Speaker 3: I think the line is telling us that the Giants 645 00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,920 Speaker 3: are resting everybody. But I just don't think that matters 646 00:37:34,920 --> 00:37:38,239 Speaker 3: that much for that team. So Giants plus fourteen is 647 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:38,720 Speaker 3: our pick. 648 00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,960 Speaker 2: There's a respect on Daniel Jones's name, man. 649 00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:45,360 Speaker 4: I won't do that. I won't do that steady. 650 00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:48,800 Speaker 2: Improvement every year, steady improvement. 651 00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:54,319 Speaker 3: Yeah, so he's approved from unplayable to slightly below mediocre. 652 00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:56,520 Speaker 4: I won't put a lot of respect on his name. 653 00:37:56,760 --> 00:38:00,400 Speaker 5: The Giants what The Giants are also plus six on 654 00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:01,080 Speaker 5: the money line. 655 00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't think they're gonna win because Philly needs 656 00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:07,400 Speaker 3: the game, So I don't think they're gonna win. A 657 00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,200 Speaker 3: team that I know is not gonna win is the 658 00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:14,600 Speaker 3: Cliff Kingsbury David Blough coach, quarterback Combo. This is a 659 00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:17,359 Speaker 3: team that I don't think likes their coach, and I 660 00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,319 Speaker 3: do think he might be on the way out. They 661 00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:23,720 Speaker 3: are playing San Francisco. San Francisco is laying fourteen points. 662 00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,520 Speaker 3: I will lay the fourteen points. Remember I said last 663 00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:31,719 Speaker 3: week Jared Stidham that when the Niners were laying ten, 664 00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:34,880 Speaker 3: I said the night that they only need to score 665 00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,640 Speaker 3: fourteen to cover it against Jared. 666 00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:39,040 Speaker 2: Stidham, and they went to the overtime. 667 00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:43,560 Speaker 4: To cover fourteen against David Blough. I think they need seventeen? 668 00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:44,120 Speaker 2: How much? 669 00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:46,240 Speaker 5: So okay, I was gonna ask you, how much better 670 00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:48,000 Speaker 5: are the Raiders than the Cardinals? 671 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:48,680 Speaker 2: In your opinion? 672 00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:50,440 Speaker 4: Much better? 673 00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:54,680 Speaker 3: DeAndre Hopkins isn't playing the third string quarterback is playing 674 00:38:54,719 --> 00:38:58,160 Speaker 3: for Arizona now. The only little bit of fear I 675 00:38:58,160 --> 00:39:02,080 Speaker 3: have is JJ Watts's final game ever. But like in that, 676 00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:07,000 Speaker 3: but there is not enough around him. San Francisco highly 677 00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:11,680 Speaker 3: motivated because San Francisco. Let me make sure I'm correct 678 00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,839 Speaker 3: on this. Hold on, there is one note. I want 679 00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:18,480 Speaker 3: to make sure I've got this right about the timing 680 00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:22,120 Speaker 3: of these games. Yes, okay, that's what I wanted to 681 00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:26,120 Speaker 3: make sure Philadelphia and the Giants are playing at the 682 00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:30,960 Speaker 3: same time as San Francisco and Arizona. So will I 683 00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:39,520 Speaker 3: admit there is potentially a little bit of fear that Philadelphia, 684 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:41,920 Speaker 3: that Philadelphia. 685 00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:43,560 Speaker 4: Wins and San Francisco loses motivation. 686 00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:47,600 Speaker 3: Here's why there is not because I believe earlier in 687 00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:50,359 Speaker 3: the day, the Vikings will have beaten the Bears. And 688 00:39:50,400 --> 00:39:53,440 Speaker 3: so even if Philadelphia is up by thirty and San 689 00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:56,919 Speaker 3: Francisco knows, oh, we can't get the one seed, they 690 00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:00,920 Speaker 3: will know assuming the Vikings have won. But if we lose, 691 00:40:01,600 --> 00:40:04,600 Speaker 3: we fall to the three seed, and then we'd be 692 00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,759 Speaker 3: going two Minnesota in round two, and we don't want that. 693 00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,879 Speaker 3: We'd rather that game be outdoors in our building. So 694 00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,480 Speaker 3: as long as the Vikings win the early game, no 695 00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:20,000 Speaker 3: matter what's happening in the Philadelphia game, San Francisco is motivated. 696 00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:24,120 Speaker 3: That defense got embarrassed by Jared Stidham last week, right, 697 00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:27,799 Speaker 3: So I think Defen's gonna be on fire. I think 698 00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,319 Speaker 3: San Francisco will hold Arizona to single digits. I'll lay 699 00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:35,160 Speaker 3: the fourteen points next. Dallas minus seven and a half 700 00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:39,719 Speaker 3: versus Washington. Washington is starting Sam Howell. He is a 701 00:40:39,760 --> 00:40:43,520 Speaker 3: fifth round rookie. Sam Howell showed you so much after 702 00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:46,120 Speaker 3: you drafted him that he was your third string quarterback 703 00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:52,440 Speaker 3: behind Carson Wentzon, Taylor Heineke. Washington is falling apart at 704 00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:56,920 Speaker 3: the end of the year. Dallas's defense and defense alone 705 00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,520 Speaker 3: is enough to cover this seven and a half Dallas 706 00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:04,560 Speaker 3: also because again, this is another one of those games 707 00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:09,200 Speaker 3: where at least in the beginning of the game Dallas 708 00:41:09,280 --> 00:41:12,759 Speaker 3: is going to be highly motivated because the division is 709 00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:13,680 Speaker 3: available for him. 710 00:41:14,000 --> 00:41:14,360 Speaker 4: Now. 711 00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:18,600 Speaker 3: Is there a little concern that Philly will be annihilating 712 00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:22,439 Speaker 3: the Giants and Dallas will pull people. Yes, that's why 713 00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:26,040 Speaker 3: Week eighteen is tough. But as long as the Giants, 714 00:41:26,360 --> 00:41:28,680 Speaker 3: if I'm right about the Giants being able to keep 715 00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:32,480 Speaker 3: it within two scores, Dallas is not going to be 716 00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,600 Speaker 3: able to just say, Okay, this game is meaningless. We're 717 00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:38,279 Speaker 3: locked into the five seed. Dallas will keep playing. If 718 00:41:38,320 --> 00:41:42,480 Speaker 3: they keep playing, they will. I don't know how Washington 719 00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:44,160 Speaker 3: and Sam Howe is going to move the ball on 720 00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:48,279 Speaker 3: this defense, and Dallas also is motivated to get up 721 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,320 Speaker 3: huge early so they can get guys out of the game. 722 00:41:51,680 --> 00:41:56,200 Speaker 3: Dallas minus seven and a half next, This is one 723 00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,719 Speaker 3: of the only games where I'm the team that has 724 00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:01,439 Speaker 3: nothing to play for. I am picking over the team 725 00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,480 Speaker 3: that has everything to play for, the Rams getting six 726 00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:08,840 Speaker 3: and a half at Seattle, I'm taking the Rams. So Seattle, 727 00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:13,120 Speaker 3: if they win, they're alive for the postseason. I'm taking 728 00:42:13,120 --> 00:42:19,080 Speaker 3: the Rams because this Sean McVay Baker mayfield offense against 729 00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:24,680 Speaker 3: bad defenses can move the football. Furthermore, Sean McVay at 730 00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,120 Speaker 3: a very interesting press conference on Wednesday when we saw 731 00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:30,880 Speaker 3: about how this was a professional failure and embarrassment of 732 00:42:30,920 --> 00:42:36,319 Speaker 3: a season. I don't think they are ready to just 733 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:38,920 Speaker 3: roll over. I think they want to end the season 734 00:42:38,960 --> 00:42:42,840 Speaker 3: on a strong note. They also don't have their draft 735 00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,959 Speaker 3: pick it goes to Detroit, so they are not incentivized 736 00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:48,520 Speaker 3: at all to lose the game. I'm not saying they're 737 00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,040 Speaker 3: gonna win the game, but I don't think they're gonna 738 00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:51,799 Speaker 3: get blown out. 739 00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,680 Speaker 4: I think Baker is highly. 740 00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:57,560 Speaker 3: Incentivized to try to put more good football on tape. 741 00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:00,480 Speaker 4: I'm getting six and a half. I'm gonna jump on 742 00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:00,960 Speaker 4: the Rams. 743 00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,800 Speaker 3: If you're thinking about actually betting, this game is another 744 00:43:03,840 --> 00:43:06,120 Speaker 3: one of those games where the line is in a 745 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:08,560 Speaker 3: place where if it moves against you, it doesn't kill 746 00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:10,040 Speaker 3: you if it moves down to six. If you think 747 00:43:10,040 --> 00:43:12,839 Speaker 3: about betting the Rams, I would wait to see if 748 00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:15,880 Speaker 3: it moves up to seven, which is obviously a huge number. 749 00:43:16,560 --> 00:43:18,480 Speaker 3: I don't think the Rams win outright, but I do 750 00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:20,719 Speaker 3: think they keep it close. The Rams plus six and 751 00:43:20,719 --> 00:43:23,560 Speaker 3: a half, and lastly, my favorite bet of the week 752 00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,480 Speaker 3: Detroit plus five and a half at Green Bay. I 753 00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:29,759 Speaker 3: think Detroit's gonna win this game. I would be shocked 754 00:43:30,800 --> 00:43:35,600 Speaker 3: if Dan Campbell's team gets embarrassed. Now I understand the 755 00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:40,840 Speaker 3: level of concern, which is if Seattle wins, Detroit is 756 00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:44,680 Speaker 3: eliminated from playoff contention before this game kicks off. This 757 00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:48,080 Speaker 3: is the night game, and if Seattle wins, then the 758 00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,480 Speaker 3: NFC wildcard the final wild cards, either Green Bay or Seattle. 759 00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:58,920 Speaker 3: In a weird way, I think Detroit is in a 760 00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:01,719 Speaker 3: fine position no matter what happens in the Seattle game 761 00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,040 Speaker 3: as far as covering this number. 762 00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:04,760 Speaker 4: Here's why. 763 00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:09,080 Speaker 3: If Seattle loses, Detroit is now obviously peak motivation. 764 00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:11,120 Speaker 4: We win. We're into the playoffs, right. 765 00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:15,520 Speaker 3: If Seattle wins, Detroit and Dan Campbell are still gonna 766 00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:18,640 Speaker 3: want to spoil it for Aaron Rodgers. But they also 767 00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:24,879 Speaker 3: can be insanely aggressive, have no worries about I think 768 00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:26,319 Speaker 3: they'll go for every fourth down. 769 00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,280 Speaker 4: I think they will do trick plays. 770 00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:31,160 Speaker 3: I think they will do a lot of things that 771 00:44:31,280 --> 00:44:34,359 Speaker 3: can catch the Packers off guard. I thinktle I think 772 00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:39,120 Speaker 3: Detroit is oddly enough gonna dare Aaron Rodgers to beat 773 00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:43,200 Speaker 3: him sell out to stop the run, because the reason 774 00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:45,279 Speaker 3: Detroit's in this position where they don't control their own 775 00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:49,000 Speaker 3: destiny is because they let Carolina run for three to 776 00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:49,799 Speaker 3: twenty on them. 777 00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:52,200 Speaker 4: I think Detroit wins the game. What are they on 778 00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:53,240 Speaker 4: the money line? Demonse? 779 00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:59,320 Speaker 3: I'm gonna you know what, So I like Detroit plus 780 00:44:59,360 --> 00:44:59,879 Speaker 3: five and a half. 781 00:45:00,000 --> 00:45:00,919 Speaker 4: I think they win the game. 782 00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,080 Speaker 3: I think at the very least they keep it close 783 00:45:03,520 --> 00:45:05,440 Speaker 3: because we are being reckless. 784 00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:08,759 Speaker 2: Fifty bucks on the one eighty that were on the 785 00:45:08,800 --> 00:45:09,480 Speaker 2: money line. 786 00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:11,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, just one eight that would win you ninety 787 00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:12,600 Speaker 4: all right, I like that. 788 00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:13,520 Speaker 2: That's not what I'm doing. 789 00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:15,759 Speaker 5: Well, I thought those were I thought it was going 790 00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:17,800 Speaker 5: to be a way better number than ninety bucks. 791 00:45:18,080 --> 00:45:21,719 Speaker 2: Not doing that, Deso, Okay. 792 00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:23,440 Speaker 3: I was about to say, we're about to put in 793 00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,640 Speaker 3: a reckless parlay. We have done eighteen of these shows, 794 00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:33,120 Speaker 3: and Demons still is insistent on making fifty dollars bets 795 00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:35,760 Speaker 3: that in theory can win him six hundred. 796 00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:38,160 Speaker 4: No, no, no, no, but actually win him zero. 797 00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,080 Speaker 5: That's not that's not my whole strat My strategy is 798 00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:45,279 Speaker 5: like twenty below, okay, would be like six to eight 799 00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:46,040 Speaker 5: hundred bucks. 800 00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:48,560 Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, he's in love with the third. 801 00:45:48,880 --> 00:45:51,160 Speaker 2: Fifty to win ninety doesn't sound great to me. It's 802 00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:52,040 Speaker 2: not really appealing. 803 00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:54,759 Speaker 3: Well, all these other bets would be fifty to win 804 00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,680 Speaker 3: forty five, all right, to be minus one ten, I 805 00:45:57,680 --> 00:46:00,520 Speaker 3: wouldn't be doing those, Okay, no problem, all right, I 806 00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:04,000 Speaker 3: am in the spirit of that. We're gona take a 807 00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:08,280 Speaker 3: quick break. I'm gonna put a fun money line parlay 808 00:46:08,320 --> 00:46:09,279 Speaker 3: together for us. 809 00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:13,439 Speaker 4: We'll do that, so we wrap our Week eighteen Gambling show. 810 00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:19,800 Speaker 4: That's next. What's right? 811 00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:24,160 Speaker 3: Come all right, welcome back in Week eighteen Gambling Show. 812 00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,720 Speaker 3: We're breaking all our rules. We're betting almost every game. 813 00:46:27,239 --> 00:46:29,520 Speaker 3: The bets are as follows. Can City minus nine and 814 00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,600 Speaker 3: a half, Jacksonville minus six, Atlanta minus four, Minnesota minus 815 00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:34,279 Speaker 3: seven and a half, Indie minus two and a half, 816 00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,840 Speaker 3: Miami plus one, Carolina plus three and a half, Pittsburgh 817 00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:39,719 Speaker 3: minus two and a half, Denver minus two and a half, 818 00:46:39,719 --> 00:46:45,000 Speaker 3: Giants plus fourteen, San Francisco minus fourteen, Dallas minus seven 819 00:46:45,000 --> 00:46:47,360 Speaker 3: and a half, Rams plus six and a half, Detroit 820 00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:50,719 Speaker 3: plus five and a half. Now I understand that is 821 00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:55,480 Speaker 3: nine favorites five dogs. Not ideal. It's a lot of 822 00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:58,600 Speaker 3: stuff we normally wouldn't do. Luckily, We're gonna go eleven 823 00:46:58,640 --> 00:47:02,239 Speaker 3: and three and finish above five. I'm manifesting it. I'm 824 00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:06,000 Speaker 3: also gonna give you, guys, this is more up your alley. Demonse, 825 00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:09,640 Speaker 3: How does plus twelve hundred sound to you? So this 826 00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:13,480 Speaker 3: would be fifty to win six hundred dollars. We're gonna 827 00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,680 Speaker 3: call this the Lions make. 828 00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:16,920 Speaker 4: The playoffs parlay. 829 00:47:17,800 --> 00:47:22,279 Speaker 3: Okay, it is Detroit on the money line plus the 830 00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:25,000 Speaker 3: Rams on the money line, because the Rams have to 831 00:47:25,000 --> 00:47:27,640 Speaker 3: beat Seattle for Detroit to make the playoffs. And then 832 00:47:27,680 --> 00:47:32,200 Speaker 3: we are throwing in in order to make it just 833 00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:33,479 Speaker 3: a little bit more. 834 00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:35,759 Speaker 4: Oh wait, hold on, I. 835 00:47:35,680 --> 00:47:37,880 Speaker 3: Can make it a little bit better, I think, let 836 00:47:37,920 --> 00:47:40,640 Speaker 3: me does it make it now? We're not including that one, 837 00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,239 Speaker 3: just to make it a little bit more juicy. The 838 00:47:44,320 --> 00:47:47,000 Speaker 3: Chiefs on the money line and the Niners on the 839 00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,839 Speaker 3: money line, two teams that I am certain are going 840 00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,880 Speaker 3: to win and have something to play for. So the 841 00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:56,279 Speaker 3: Chiefs to win against the Raiders, the Niners to win 842 00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:58,279 Speaker 3: against David blou and the Cardinals. 843 00:47:58,640 --> 00:48:00,160 Speaker 4: The Rams and Baker. 844 00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:03,080 Speaker 3: May Field to go to Seattle and win, which would 845 00:48:03,160 --> 00:48:06,360 Speaker 3: make Detroit at Green Bay a win and in game 846 00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:08,240 Speaker 3: and Detroit to win that game. 847 00:48:08,600 --> 00:48:09,799 Speaker 4: It is twelve to one. 848 00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:13,160 Speaker 3: I am making myself that offer and I am taking 849 00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:17,080 Speaker 3: that offer. That's our Week eighteen Gambling Show. Good luck 850 00:48:17,080 --> 00:48:20,600 Speaker 3: to everyone. Don't do what we did. Gamble responsibly. We'll 851 00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:34,160 Speaker 3: see you on Monday.