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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I can just about that action

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Speaker 1: all right? Here we go probes throwing out show. We're

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Speaker 1: sitting up to cash to star. We see most gamble

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Speaker 1: is ships. When they go to gamble, they go to swin.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible, big bank small. I like to make money,

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Speaker 1: all right?

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Speaker 2: This is the ultimate Kobe.

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Speaker 1: And you want to fall?

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Speaker 3: And we are under way? What is up?

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Speaker 1: Everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Chris Raybond. This is our eighth annual Propapa.

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Speaker 1: Who's the episode here on the Action Network Podcast where

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Speaker 1: we cover all things prop Betty for Super Bowl sixty.

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Speaker 1: I am joined, as always by my co host, one

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Speaker 1: of the top rankers and projectors in the game, Actions

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Speaker 1: director of pre Dictive Analytics, Sean Kerner, the odds maker, Sean.

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Speaker 1: What's going on? It's up?

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Speaker 2: I can't believe this is already the eight Super Bowl

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Speaker 2: Propa balooza. But I am itching to give out some

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Speaker 2: props here.

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Speaker 1: Itching. Okay, that's that's a bitching. That's a visceral description there.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, my beard's getting long. Things are itchy. You know,

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Speaker 2: other people on the panel, you know what I'm talking about.

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Speaker 1: Kyle Murray. Uh, that would be you. And you know

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Speaker 1: Kyle is from Rodo Grinders. He's with us today, does

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Speaker 1: great work over there. So Kyle, I think, first of all,

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Speaker 1: welcome in. Second of all, are you itchy? Is that?

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Speaker 1: I guess that's the question that was supposed to be

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Speaker 1: in the outline by a certain producer of ours.

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Speaker 3: I think I'm past the itching this phase.

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Speaker 4: But we just have so many great beards here at

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Speaker 4: the Action Network, so I was like, you know, it's

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Speaker 4: getting cold here in Michigan, why not try to grow

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Speaker 4: one myself. It's not not gone the smoothest transition here,

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Speaker 4: but you know we're getting there. But I will say

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Speaker 4: I've been watching the Probablusa for years now and I'm

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Speaker 4: I'm super pumped to be here on the show with

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Speaker 4: you guys and excited to talk about the big game

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Speaker 4: with you guys.

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Speaker 1: Yes, sir, And it's it's gonna be a good game,

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Speaker 1: I think, because it's a very fascinating one. I can't

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Speaker 1: remember a year where I think there's just so many

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Speaker 1: different angles and ways you could go in terms of

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Speaker 1: like how you think the game is gonna play out.

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Speaker 1: And maybe that's just because you know these teams are

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Speaker 1: a little bit unfamiliar in terms of you know, you

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Speaker 1: got you have Drake May there, you have Sam Donald there,

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Speaker 1: yew new coaches that haven't been to the you know,

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Speaker 1: led their teams there before. So it should be a

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Speaker 1: good one. We're gonna cover a lot of ground. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna just share each of our three top three favorite

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Speaker 1: player props across the board and we'll get into some

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Speaker 1: other angles as well. But before we get into the props,

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Speaker 1: I will talks it over myself. Forward from our sponsored

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Speaker 1: Draft Kings, The Action Network podcast has teamed up with

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Speaker 1: the crown is yours. All right, So let's go favorite

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Speaker 1: props here, Turner, I'll bet I'll about third. You could

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Speaker 1: go lead off and then KYLEI you will be up

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Speaker 1: after Sean. So Sean check us off where we're going right.

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Speaker 2: So this is a rushing prop and this is Draft

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Speaker 2: Kings specifically, they have a market. It's under rushing props.

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Speaker 2: You scroll to the right or scroll down. It's towards

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Speaker 2: the end. It's quarter with the most rushing yards or

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Speaker 2: rushing yards Q with most. There's two different labels for it.

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Speaker 2: But which quarter will remindre Stevenson have the most rushing yards?

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Speaker 2: And I am going with the first core at plus

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Speaker 2: two ninety because I did a deep dive of you know,

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Speaker 2: his rush attempts per quarter over the season, and last

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Speaker 2: week was you know a bit of an outlier. He

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Speaker 2: had nine of his twenty five attempts in the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 2: but that was very likely due to just the conditions.

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Speaker 2: I mean, we didn't really expect it to be that snowy,

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Speaker 2: but it was like a blizzard out there, and they

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Speaker 2: were just trying to protect the lead against you know,

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Speaker 2: Jared Stidham led Broncos offense, so they were just pounding

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Speaker 2: Remandre in that fourth quarter. But the fourth quarter is

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Speaker 2: you know, usually you know what what's up that just

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Speaker 2: it's just a normal pause, just oh okay.

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Speaker 1: Pounding Remandre. You know, I thought I thought we were

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Speaker 1: talking about or something.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, he's gonna be on tomorrow show. But hopefully

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Speaker 2: everybody's bet this by now if you're listening. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: so the fourth quarter in general is going to be

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Speaker 2: game script, you know, driven when it comes to running

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Speaker 2: back and the you know, the Patriots went fourteen and

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Speaker 2: three in the regular season, they're in the super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: They led you know, sixty two percent of the time

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Speaker 2: this year, which led the league. So they're four and

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Speaker 2: a half point dogs here, which means the fourth quarter,

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Speaker 2: you know, it could be a rare train trailing game

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Speaker 2: script where we're not seeing Remandre, you know, get a

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Speaker 2: ton of usage in the running game. So I just

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Speaker 2: haven't projected to see a much higher percent of his

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Speaker 2: rush temps in the first quarter. You know, the second

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Speaker 2: quarter is usually he's going to be out there in

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Speaker 2: the two minute offense, not really a quarter he's seeing

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Speaker 2: a ton of rush temps. So I have this projected

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Speaker 2: closer to plus one seventy. So this is actually the

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Speaker 2: quarter I haven't favored. Doesn't mean he's gonna have the

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Speaker 2: most you know rushing yards there, but you know plus

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Speaker 2: two ninety this is a ton of value. So I'm

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Speaker 2: loking this in today. You know, I have his under

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Speaker 2: fifty six and a half rushing yards, So this is

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Speaker 2: kind of a hedge where if he gets off a

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Speaker 2: little bit of a hot start, you know, I cash this.

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Speaker 2: I'm not as Maad. But also you know quarters two

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Speaker 2: through four is kind of where I expected him to

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Speaker 2: drop off anyway, So there's a chance I hit both

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Speaker 2: of these and that he doesn't have to do good. Right,

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Speaker 2: he can get ten rushing yards in the first quarter,

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Speaker 2: and you know that could be the highest. And I

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Speaker 2: went my under fifty six and a half rushing yard.

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Speaker 2: So I think this is kind of a unique way

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Speaker 2: to hedge it and something I'm showing a ton of

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Speaker 2: value on.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the weak unique thing would be you

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Speaker 1: hitting both of those, because didn't you hit a Pat

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Speaker 1: Bryant bet the other like a couple of weeks ago

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Speaker 1: where you had like his and you got it. That

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Speaker 1: was the first.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I got lucky. That one was a bad cap

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Speaker 2: that I happened to get lucky. Those have been rare,

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Speaker 2: So I take him where I can get him. But

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Speaker 2: I should have got smoked on that one. I just

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Speaker 2: got lucky.

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Speaker 1: All right, Kyle, where are we going for your first prop?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, let's stay with a familiar face there. I'm also

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Speaker 4: going to have a Remondra Stevenson property. There are some

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Speaker 4: similar angles that I have with this under twelve and

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Speaker 4: a half longest rushing prop that Sean mentioned. I think

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Speaker 4: part of it is due to I'm expecting just less

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Speaker 4: volume here from Rodre Stevenson due to that game script.

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Speaker 4: I think Seahawks win this game. I think they control

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Speaker 4: the game script. I think that they've been the most

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Speaker 4: dominant team in football this year, and I think the

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Speaker 4: Patriots have been getting awfully lucky this season. I do

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Speaker 4: think Seattle wins this one and forces the Patriots to

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Speaker 4: throw a bit more in this spot. And then also,

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Speaker 4: you know, terrible match up here against Seattle, who ranks

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Speaker 4: first in rush DVOA. They allowed the huest rushing plays

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Speaker 4: so far this season in the NFL, allowing explosive plays

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Speaker 4: in just one point nine percent of rushing attempts. They've

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Speaker 4: also allowed the lowest yards per carry this season, so

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Speaker 4: the matchup is bad here for Remandre. I think the

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Speaker 4: potential role could also decrease. I think obviously forty one

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Speaker 4: carries over the last two games for Madre Stevenson, but

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Speaker 4: last week I do think there's a good chance that

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Speaker 4: was significantly impacted due to the weather. Obviously, Rod Stepinson

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Speaker 4: taking over to the backfield pretty consistently from trade Von Anderson,

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Speaker 4: but I think it's more of like a shot and

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Speaker 4: awe sort of factor there. I do think Henderson's going

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Speaker 4: to be involved in this game, at least more so

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Speaker 4: than we've seen over the last two games. So I

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Speaker 4: think the combination of expected decrease in volume, do the

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Speaker 4: game script and just potential role of other players in

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Speaker 4: this backfield, as well as just the brutal matchup has

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Speaker 4: me on the under twelve and a half rushing yards for

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Speaker 4: the longest rush for Roger Stevenson here.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and uh, I'm gonna stay in the same ballpark,

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Speaker 1: but instead of fading Remondre or backing Remandre like Hell

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Speaker 1: has to have done, I'm gonna go with Drake May

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Speaker 1: to have the most rushing yards in this game. And

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Speaker 1: the reason is because I agree that there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of kind of uncertainty with Ramondre Stevenson, and you know,

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Speaker 1: Henderson could pop back up in this one, and then

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Speaker 1: on the Seahawks side, the Patriots have just been so

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Speaker 1: good in run defense that I don't know if Kenneth

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Speaker 1: Walker is able to do what he's been doing over

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Speaker 1: the past a few games, especially with sharbon A out.

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Speaker 1: So I think Drake May is in a good spot

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Speaker 1: here because you know, his own team could also just

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Speaker 1: get stopped on the ground. They could be in a

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Speaker 1: trailing game script. And he's been averaging since the buy

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Speaker 1: nearly eleven yards per scramble. That's up from six and

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Speaker 1: a half before the bye, So he's scrambling more. He's

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Speaker 1: scrambling more and must have it you know, third and

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Speaker 1: long type of situations, which I think will help in

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Speaker 1: a spot like this. And they have nearly doubled his

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Speaker 1: designed rush rate post buy as well. In seven games

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Speaker 1: he averages almost he ha just two designed runs not

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Speaker 1: counting nail down, so two non kneel down design runs

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Speaker 1: compared to one point one before the buye he's also

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Speaker 1: averaging you know, over four yards to carry on those

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Speaker 1: compared to under two yards to carry on those design

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Speaker 1: rushes before the buy. So what that's telling you is

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Speaker 1: they're giving him more you know, like ender rounds, things

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Speaker 1: where you can actually get yards. It's not just like

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Speaker 1: you know your your one yard touch, push or sneak

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Speaker 1: or whatever. So I think Drake May is live here

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Speaker 1: to read the game in rushing yards. So let's lock

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Speaker 1: him in at six to one, a fade of Kenneth

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Speaker 1: Walker just as much as it is backing Drake Man.

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Speaker 1: All right, we'll get to our second and third props.

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Speaker 1: But before we do, folks, if those three props didn't

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Speaker 1: get you hot and bothered, well wait until you hear

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Speaker 1: With myself or Sean or Kyle releases a pick, you

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Speaker 1: do now have to wait thirty minutes when the line

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Speaker 1: we're one whole Kerner prop in to this episode, and

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Speaker 1: you don't have a punter prop, and I'm kind of disappointed.

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Speaker 1: But where are we going for number two? Off?

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Speaker 2: If somebody would offer one, I'd gladly take one. Hopefully

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Speaker 2: you know, by the time the Super Bowl kicks off,

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Speaker 2: we havet some punter props. But this one, I'm actually

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Speaker 2: going with not one, but two props on the same

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Speaker 2: player and their quarter props. So it's Hunter Henry in

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Speaker 2: the first leg of this These are two separate plays.

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Speaker 2: I'm going with Hunter Henry under four and a half

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Speaker 2: first quarter receiving yards at minus one twelve, and I'm

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Speaker 2: pretty much in line with Henry's full game market. I know, stuck,

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Speaker 2: he's all over his over and he made a ton

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Speaker 2: of great points that this is, you know, probably the

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Speaker 2: best way to attack this very good Seahawks defense. But

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Speaker 2: I did a deep dive on just like Henry's quarter

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Speaker 2: to quarter usage and it kind of shocked me. Where

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Speaker 2: the first quarter he's basically non existent. So he gets

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Speaker 2: off to a ton of slow starts where he's only

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Speaker 2: seen a target on eleven percent of his first quarter routes,

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Speaker 2: So he only has five catches in the first quarter

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Speaker 2: in twenty games. Obviously, you know, we could probably chalk

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Speaker 2: a ton of that up to noise, but you know

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Speaker 2: there's probably some signal there that he's just not as

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Speaker 2: involved in their initial scripted plays as much. You know,

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Speaker 2: that could change for the Super Bowl if they want

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Speaker 2: to mix it up. But Henry's not the kind of

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Speaker 2: guy that you just throw a quick screen pass to

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Speaker 2: get the ball in his hands and get him involved early.

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Speaker 2: That's not really his game. You know, He's a little

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Speaker 2: bit more downfield, higher a dot guy. So you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm not too surprised he gets off the slower starts.

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Speaker 2: So you know, I have him right around a fifty

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Speaker 2: nine percent chance to not even catch a pass in

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Speaker 2: the first quarter. If he does, there's just a one

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Speaker 2: percent chance he stays under four and a half. This

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Speaker 2: isn't a market. You know, he'll probably stay under if

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Speaker 2: he does catch a pass, So sixty percent chance he

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Speaker 2: stays under four and a half receiving yards to the

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Speaker 2: first quarter. On the flip side, I'm actually gonna take

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Speaker 2: Hunter Henry over eight and a half yards in the

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Speaker 2: second quarter at minus one ten. That's really the quarter

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Speaker 2: where he sees a ton of usage. He led the

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Speaker 2: team with a twenty percent target rate in the second quarter,

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Speaker 2: and he was actually the first three twenty one percent

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Speaker 2: of the time, which is really high. So that means

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Speaker 2: you know, they're obviously, you know, scheming up plays for

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Speaker 2: him in the second quarter. You know, you have the

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Speaker 2: four minute offense, two minute offense, things like that he's

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Speaker 2: much more involved in. So I have his most likely

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Speaker 2: outcome one catch in the second quarter. He'd get two

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Speaker 2: or more and easily clear this. But even if he

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Speaker 2: gets one catch, Henry makes it count. His median catch

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Speaker 2: this year is twelve yards, and seventy percent of his

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Speaker 2: catches were nine yards or higher, so probably just needs

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Speaker 2: one catch to clear this. So I'm gonna have his

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Speaker 2: under four and a half for the first quarter over

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Speaker 2: eight and a half for the second quarter. I've never

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Speaker 2: done this before, but it's gonna be a fun sweat,

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Speaker 2: Like hopefully, you know, the Seahawks get the ball towards

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Speaker 2: the end of the first quarter and their drive is

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Speaker 2: wrapping up, you know, at the end of the first quarter,

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Speaker 2: and the Pats get the ball to start the second quarter.

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Speaker 2: Is like the sweating guide for this. But again, just

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Speaker 2: the way he's been used in each quarter has been

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Speaker 2: pretty stark, and you know, I'm all over these two props.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think it just speaks to, you know,

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Speaker 1: how well coached the Patriots are, because it's probably that

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Speaker 1: they're they're kind of playing off him in the first quarters,

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Speaker 1: because I would think that the opposing defense is probably

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Speaker 1: kind of trading him as the top option at least

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year when Stefan Diggs was only running

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Speaker 1: a route what like sixty percent of the time for here,

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Speaker 1: you know, the first three quarters of the year, Henry

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Speaker 1: was up there around eighty percent, So he's essentially the

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Speaker 1: top option that you have to worry about. Uh So,

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Speaker 1: you know, they kind of played off that and then

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Speaker 1: like you said, second quarter on, you know, it's just

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Speaker 1: you kind of get him back involved in the game.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I like that angle as well. Kyle, what

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Speaker 1: we're doing for prop number two.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm going to mc collins for some props here

298
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Speaker 4: at the I guess the official pick for mc collins

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Speaker 4: is over twenty five and a half for siming yards,

300
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Speaker 4: But I also do like a little bit of an

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Speaker 4: alt ladder up to forty or fifty yards here to

302
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Speaker 4: have some fun in the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 3: And I also like him to find the end zone

304
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Speaker 3: at about four to one.

305
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Speaker 4: But bottom line is I project in our River Riders

306
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Speaker 4: projection model thirty two and a half receiving yards for

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Speaker 4: Matt Collins. So some nice value there on the base prop.

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Speaker 4: Expecting a pass heavy game trip. Like I talked about

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Speaker 4: a couple times already throughout the show, New England obviously

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Speaker 4: has not really dealt with trailing much, so I think

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Speaker 4: that will kind of leave some you know, inherent value

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Speaker 4: in some of these pass catching props here. So with

313
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Speaker 4: that being the case, Hollind's return from injury last week

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Speaker 4: ran the second most routes amongst receivers, played the second

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Speaker 4: most snapsmost receivers, excuse me, and he's actually been the

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Speaker 4: second most efficient New England receiver against zone coverage this season.

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Speaker 4: Seattle ranks top five in zone rate and in Super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: You know, we see a lot of big names, and

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Speaker 4: Super Bowl I would say this year is probably as

320
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Speaker 4: a lesser extent of you know, big superstars in the

321
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Speaker 4: game here, but we always see a couple of random,

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Speaker 4: you know, ancillary guys go off or have you know,

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Speaker 4: big plays in these kinds of games. I think Mac

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Speaker 4: collins fits the bill for that kind of potential here.

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Speaker 4: Obviously his guy who we've seen makes a big plays.

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Speaker 4: He made a big play last week in the conference

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Speaker 4: championship game. He has a point two target per route

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Speaker 4: run rate, just twelve yards perception so far the seasons.

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Speaker 3: We can easily get this done on one or two catches.

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Speaker 4: But you know, if we see a spot where Seattle

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Speaker 4: is you know, darning a lot of their attention towards

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Speaker 4: Booty and Stefan Diggs, I think maybe mc collins can

333
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Speaker 4: get sprung for a couple of big plays in the spot.

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Speaker 4: And again he's I think has that downfield dynamic playmaking

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Speaker 4: potential in this one.

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Speaker 3: So I like targety mcollen and the super Bowl for

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Speaker 3: this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's sure to get some one on one coverage.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he's got to be the guy that, especially

340
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Speaker 1: the Seahawks are going to just trust all their corners really,

341
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Speaker 1: you know, even if it's zoned on those matching concepts,

342
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Speaker 1: but you're not going to rotate coverage to Mac Howins.

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Speaker 1: He's the Johan Dotson or I guess it is. This

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Speaker 1: where he's been playing well though, and Drake May has

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Speaker 1: a lot to do with that. So yeah, he can

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Speaker 1: clear that like the first play of the first play

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Speaker 1: of the game or something like that, the Patriots get

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Speaker 1: the ball first. H all right, I'm gonna go with

349
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Speaker 1: Drake May still his median rushing over thirty seven and

350
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Speaker 1: a half as well. You know, I already talked about

351
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Speaker 1: him to leave the game and why I like him

352
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Speaker 1: that market, but you know, kind of got into they've

353
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Speaker 1: just been using him more as a runner, you know,

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Speaker 1: on design play since the buy and then now we're

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Speaker 1: in a rare trailing game script. So I do like

356
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Speaker 1: his long shot stuff, but also love the medium because

357
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Speaker 1: I have this over forty so before the buye, he

358
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Speaker 1: only you know he was he was he essentially did

359
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Speaker 1: this three times. After the buye. He's done it in

360
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Speaker 1: four of seven games since. So this is like, I

361
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Speaker 1: don't think the markets have fully adjusted to just how

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Speaker 1: much he's going to run and when, because when a

363
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Speaker 1: quarterback can scramble, you know a lot of times, you

364
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Speaker 1: know that's gonna increase their their rushing yardage more than

365
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Speaker 1: just a quarterback getting like an extra design run or two,

366
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Speaker 1: because you know, design runs tend to be short yardage

367
00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,239
Speaker 1: a little bit more key spots, whereas scrambles those can

368
00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:50,760
Speaker 1: happen and usually are gonna happen in long yardage situation

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Speaker 1: where the defense is playing coverage and so there's usually

370
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Speaker 1: a lot of room to run and a lot of

371
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Speaker 1: yardage should get So I think Drake May is going

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Speaker 1: to be running for his life.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 1: It's it really is hard to kind of look at

375
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Speaker 1: Patriot receivers and see anyone that has like a real

376
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Speaker 1: standout matchup. I think, you know, Pyle just alluded to

377
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Speaker 1: it with you know, Mac Collins is the guy that

378
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Speaker 1: he kind of likes the most, Hunter Henry, you know

379
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,119
Speaker 1: not but not in the first quarterback. We really like

380
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:18,720
Speaker 1: the Patriots could struggle to throw the ball. There could

381
00:18:18,720 --> 00:18:22,359
Speaker 1: be a lot of opportunities here, even more then there's

382
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Speaker 1: been in the past for May to run it just

383
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Speaker 1: because of the trailing if there's a trailing game strip

384
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Speaker 1: Because the Patriots have been so good all year and

385
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Speaker 1: even in the postseason and their offensive struggled, they were

386
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Speaker 1: still winning games with their defense, which might not be

387
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Speaker 1: the case here. So we'll go Drake May over thirty

388
00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 1: seven and a half rushing yards. Card one more to go,

389
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Speaker 1: prop number three. Where are we going?

390
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta go with the defensive player prop here.

391
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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with DeMarcus Lawrence of the Seahawks to

392
00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 2: get a sack at plus one. This is just a

393
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Speaker 2: great matchup for the Seahawks when it comes to the

394
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Speaker 2: sack market. You know, Drink may face the sixth highest

395
00:19:05,160 --> 00:19:07,919
Speaker 2: pressure rate of the season. That's typically you know, an

396
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Speaker 2: offensive line stat, but he was also you know, sacked

397
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Speaker 2: on twenty four percent of his pressures, which is the

398
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Speaker 2: seventh pass rate, which was more of a QB stat.

399
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,360
Speaker 2: And you know Lawrence, he led the Seahawks and sacks.

400
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,760
Speaker 2: Has two sacks so far in the playoffs, team leading

401
00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,480
Speaker 2: seven pressures. So he's who I want to take here

402
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 2: because you know, he should be much closer to a

403
00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:34,360
Speaker 2: ceiling in terms of playing time. So I'm I'm expecting

404
00:19:34,400 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 2: him out there seventy to seventy five percent of the snaps.

405
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,920
Speaker 2: And you know, the Pats were fifth and pass rate

406
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Speaker 2: over expected, but they led so many games they didn't

407
00:19:44,080 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 2: have to drop back as much. But I'm expecting him

408
00:19:46,119 --> 00:19:48,960
Speaker 2: to drop back a ton here. So I think Lawrence

409
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Speaker 2: is gonna have a ton of chances to get him here,

410
00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 2: and I actually i'm you know, above fifty fifty three

411
00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:57,360
Speaker 2: percent chance to get a sack here, So I love

412
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Speaker 2: the value of getting at plus one forty.

413
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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's I'm sure it was even it would have

414
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Speaker 1: been higher than fifth if they hadn't gotten the whole

415
00:20:04,440 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 1: second half of that dender per game, essentially like handing

416
00:20:07,280 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 1: it all three times and punting each time, that'll lower

417
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:15,600
Speaker 1: over expected. So yeah, there's it could be a really

418
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Speaker 1: different script. And I think that's kind of what our

419
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,919
Speaker 1: props are hitting at here in terms of New England. Kyle,

420
00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 1: what we got for your third favorite prop of the day.

421
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, honestly, you've done a lot of capping for me

422
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:31,800
Speaker 4: on this one. I think you've obviously talked about Drake

423
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,200
Speaker 4: May and why we like him to be maybe a

424
00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:36,000
Speaker 4: little bit more mobile in this game. And I was

425
00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:38,200
Speaker 4: considering his over six and a half rushed him's prop.

426
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:39,679
Speaker 4: I like that one, but I wanted to get a

427
00:20:39,680 --> 00:20:40,359
Speaker 4: little juicy.

428
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:41,360
Speaker 3: I was also.

429
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:44,159
Speaker 4: Considering then going to Drake may first touchdown score, but

430
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,760
Speaker 4: ultimately settled on a little bit more conservative play Drake

431
00:20:46,760 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 4: May anytime touchdown plus three thirty in the market.

432
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Speaker 3: I think for all the reasons you've mentioned.

433
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Speaker 4: Obviously, he's been forced to scramble quite a bit, especially

434
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,160
Speaker 4: towards the latter part of the season, but they've also

435
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:56,119
Speaker 4: looked to get him more.

436
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:57,160
Speaker 3: Involved in the rue game.

437
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,679
Speaker 4: He obviously has you know, the touch push upside in

438
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:01,639
Speaker 4: this one as well, and I think just in general,

439
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:03,760
Speaker 4: with that more pass heavy game scripper, we're going to

440
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 4: see more dropback opportunities and there for more potential scramble

441
00:21:07,080 --> 00:21:09,640
Speaker 4: opportunities there for Drake May you know it took him

442
00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:12,080
Speaker 4: on this anytime touchdown score last week and he came through.

443
00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 4: Also bet him to be the first touch on score

444
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 4: and he was just a little too late for the

445
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,560
Speaker 4: second touchdown of the game. So I don't mind throwing

446
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 4: a little sprinkle on that Drake may first touchdown prop

447
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:22,919
Speaker 4: if you did want to get spicy. But yeah, I

448
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 4: was looking to add a little bit more juice on

449
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:26,919
Speaker 4: this this third prop. I couldn't quite give out my

450
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,640
Speaker 4: my interesting forty to one Tonga anytime touchdown scorer prop

451
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 4: that I do have some interest in. Yeah, he's the

452
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,600
Speaker 4: defensive lineman that will play at full back at times.

453
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 4: We know Mike Rabel has found the end zone to

454
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:38,240
Speaker 4: the defensive player. I do think that maybe we do

455
00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 4: see a creative play on the Patriots side of things,

456
00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 4: and maybe he finds the enzel, but couldn't go there.

457
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 4: So I ultimately settled on Drake May anytime touchdown at.

458
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,120
Speaker 3: About three to one, three and a half to one.

459
00:21:48,280 --> 00:21:52,600
Speaker 1: Ooh, I love that. Tonga Like, yeah, Tonga and theay

460
00:21:52,680 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 1: Er Month for Junior. Both of those guys end up

461
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,119
Speaker 1: it Month for is the sixth lineman and then Tonga

462
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: will be the fullback. But I could see either of

463
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:03,600
Speaker 1: those guys getting schemed up a touchdown by Mike Great Well,

464
00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 1: he loves to do that though, so but yeah, Drake May,

465
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,040
Speaker 1: and for this game, you know you mentioned you were

466
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:09,880
Speaker 1: a little late on you know, him scoring the first

467
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 1: touchdown last time. In this because it's the Super Bowl,

468
00:22:13,080 --> 00:22:17,119
Speaker 1: you could actually bet first player on the team to

469
00:22:17,160 --> 00:22:20,239
Speaker 1: score a touchdown. So that's another angle that you can

470
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:22,160
Speaker 1: hit this week and just kind of you know, now

471
00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 1: you have to worry about the first two. You're doing

472
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 1: it that way, I'm gonna go. So I'm gonna go

473
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 1: with Travon Henderson fifty plus rushing yards at plus seven

474
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,800
Speaker 1: eighty for my third and I think with the Super

475
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 1: Bowls a very unique prop betting situation because obviously there's

476
00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 1: so many more props posted by sportsbooks than any other game,

477
00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 1: and so we're gonna do this is the first of

478
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,560
Speaker 1: five episodes, so I think it kind of makes a

479
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:51,879
Speaker 1: lot of sense in what you've seen us do, all

480
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: all three of us do is kind of you kind

481
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: of have to hit certain angles and certain things in

482
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,240
Speaker 1: all the different ways that you can because these opportunities

483
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 1: like they might not be here. They could all kind

484
00:23:02,000 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 1: of adjust at once as the week progresses. So like

485
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,760
Speaker 1: we like Drake may to run a lot, Stevenson, we're

486
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 1: kind of like, we don't know about the game script.

487
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 1: And then Kenneth Walker tough matchups, so you know, who's

488
00:23:17,600 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 1: the guy that you know, we really haven't There's a

489
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,600
Speaker 1: lot of uncertainty around Trevon Henderson. You know, he could

490
00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:29,600
Speaker 1: essentially be relegated to doing like Isaiah Pacheco nothing in

491
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 1: this game like we've seen in the past sometimes with

492
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,199
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. But uh, I also say he could be

493
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,040
Speaker 1: back involved because the games script is gonna be different.

494
00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 1: It's just a lot of uncertainty and the thing about

495
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: Travion is he's a feaster famine runner. He's the kind

496
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 1: of guy that you know he's either gonna get a

497
00:23:47,680 --> 00:23:50,480
Speaker 1: long run or a lot of losses. And I think

498
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 1: that's kind of why reminder Stevenson, you know, in these

499
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:56,040
Speaker 1: leading game scripts had just been fed a ton. But

500
00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: if the Seahawks are gonna give up something, you're probably

501
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: gonna have to outrun. And they're just so good, so athletics,

502
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 1: so talented that I don't know if Romandre is gonna

503
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: be able to have quite as much success. So there's

504
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,640
Speaker 1: also kind of a hot hand situation I think going

505
00:24:09,680 --> 00:24:12,640
Speaker 1: on here. But Traveon could clear this on I mean

506
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,119
Speaker 1: obviously one carry, but even if he gets you know,

507
00:24:15,119 --> 00:24:18,040
Speaker 1: only three four carries, he could pop a long one.

508
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: If there's also a chance Patriots trailing more than we

509
00:24:21,440 --> 00:24:23,520
Speaker 1: then you know, projected the trail more than they have

510
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,919
Speaker 1: all season pretty much, so you could get a you know,

511
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: like a second and long, third and long situation where

512
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,280
Speaker 1: the Seahawks are playing coverage. It could be something before

513
00:24:32,320 --> 00:24:34,439
Speaker 1: the half. So there's a lot of outs here for

514
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 1: Travion Henderson to rack this up and and not really

515
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,200
Speaker 1: affect and kind of positively correlate with a lot of

516
00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 1: the other stuff we're doing in terms of Russian, you know,

517
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 1: in terms of still liking Drake May, you know, kind

518
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:50,680
Speaker 1: of liking Remandre early but fading him full game and

519
00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,360
Speaker 1: and it's for me, you know, fading Kennis Walker as well.

520
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:58,359
Speaker 1: So like traveon Henderson fifty plus at plus seven to eighty.

521
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 1: But really anything that's not his media and over. You know,

522
00:25:01,160 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: I think we at plus money makes a smart call, Kurnie,

523
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 1: what do you want to ask something there? I heard you.

524
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 2: Well, I mean the fact just the fact that you're

525
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,960
Speaker 2: on Drake May is over and Henderson's all over makes

526
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 2: me feel better about my Remandre, you know, boring median

527
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 2: under So yeah, but yeah, that's a great play with

528
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 2: I just that's a great play with Henderson where he's

529
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 2: probably the trickiest player to cap for this game. So

530
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:27,919
Speaker 2: the media market is, you know, the tougher one someone

531
00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,119
Speaker 2: like that. Yeah, just take a flyer on they're all overs.

532
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,120
Speaker 2: I mean Madre could get hurt or you know, fumble,

533
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 2: he could have an early game fumble and you know

534
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 2: they go to Henderson, but Henderson could be the guy

535
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 2: that they they want to spark the run game. Again,

536
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,560
Speaker 2: if they're pounding Ramandre in the first quarter and he

537
00:25:43,600 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 2: has you know, five carries for ten yards, that's the

538
00:25:46,320 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 2: time you get Henderson some work to try to you know,

539
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 2: spice it up.

540
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:53,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's there's and really, yeah, we just don't know.

541
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:55,840
Speaker 1: I mean he could get he could get like Malcolm

542
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: butlerd he could get I guess still could Tarik wool

543
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:00,200
Speaker 1: it after what he do ask him? But yeah, yeah,

544
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 1: that's the It's just we don't know. That's the real reason.

545
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 1: How I get like, I don't have much confidence in

546
00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:08,920
Speaker 1: Trayvon Henderson getting playing time, but you know, on the

547
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: few times he's on the field, I do think, you know,

548
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: he can he can bust one. And then there is

549
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:16,240
Speaker 1: that uncertainty that I think is a positive when you have, uh,

550
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: you know, this kind of market, because the market did adjust,

551
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 1: you know, swiftly to that. Like I think the opener

552
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: was right around like okay, yeah, I'm expecting him to

553
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 1: get like four carries, which is what he got, Like

554
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:29,080
Speaker 1: we got three in the championship. Let's go a little

555
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 1: high level by position and then we will do our

556
00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 1: Super Bowl MVP prop. And remember this is the first

557
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: of you know, five episodes. You know that we have

558
00:26:38,640 --> 00:26:41,280
Speaker 1: across Action Network, so we're gonna have a ton more

559
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:44,919
Speaker 1: props as well. But as I said, as the market

560
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:47,200
Speaker 1: stands right now, I think the you know, the market's

561
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,439
Speaker 1: the most off on some of these rushing props. That's

562
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 1: the way you can kind of take advantage. But I

563
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,360
Speaker 1: do want to get you guys start, especially with you Kyle,

564
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: because Kerner and I, you know, we talk at length,

565
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 1: you know, kind of pretty much player by player, position

566
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 1: by position, you know, on all of these guys. But

567
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: haven't heard your thoughts yet. And sometimes I think there's

568
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: a lot to kind of look at, you know, outside

569
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: of just the rushing and there is a lot of uncertainty,

570
00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 1: and I think that's also probably why we you know,

571
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,400
Speaker 1: we kind of targeted those. So I would start with

572
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,719
Speaker 1: pass catchers. How I'll think it to you first, what

573
00:27:19,760 --> 00:27:21,240
Speaker 1: do you what are you kind of looking at for

574
00:27:21,800 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 1: Jackson Smith and Jigwa, because I think that's the guy

575
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 1: that kind of stands out, you know, he's been just

576
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,159
Speaker 1: amazing all year. People are gonna kind of want to

577
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,600
Speaker 1: want to know how to how to attack his market

578
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 1: because usually with star players just in general, there's not

579
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 1: a lot of value, but it kind of changes in

580
00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl a little bit because there's just such

581
00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: a big market and so much money everywhere. So that

582
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 1: so like, how are you kind of handicapping JSN in

583
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:47,919
Speaker 1: this one?

584
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think that it's worth noting that obviously

585
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 4: we saw Seattle you know, throw the ball a little

586
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:53,760
Speaker 4: bit more last game.

587
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 3: Obviously knows Zach Sharbon.

588
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:57,520
Speaker 4: The game script obviously helps as well when you're in

589
00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,480
Speaker 4: a close competitive game where you're kind of forced to throw.

590
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 4: But I think bottom line, Jason's gonna be the guy

591
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 4: that they consistently look for. New England has two weeks

592
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,320
Speaker 4: the game plan for him, and obviously they're going to

593
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,480
Speaker 4: you know, bring their you know, most competitive package towards

594
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:13,159
Speaker 4: stopping him. But I do think he's up there in

595
00:28:13,160 --> 00:28:17,120
Speaker 4: that upper ationalunt of receivers who quite can't be stopped consistently.

596
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:19,479
Speaker 4: So I think that he's going to have right now,

597
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 4: we protect him for a thirty six percent target share

598
00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:24,240
Speaker 4: and our roder Grinder's model. So I think I do

599
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 4: think JSN is you know, due for a massive volume game.

600
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 4: We'll see if he can translate that to efficiency like

601
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,840
Speaker 4: he did last week. But I also do have some

602
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,639
Speaker 4: interest in Cooper Cup. I just think that the the

603
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 4: prop line on him is quite low at thirty two

604
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 4: and a half. He's clear that number in his last

605
00:28:40,320 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 4: two games, and again, I do think that in the

606
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 4: Super Bowl, when you have two weeks to prepare for

607
00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:46,840
Speaker 4: these teams, they know exactly who they want to get

608
00:28:46,840 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 4: the ball on the for the offense, and that's going

609
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 4: to be JSN when they're dropping back to pass. That

610
00:28:51,760 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 4: could open up some things for Cooper Cup, who obviously

611
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 4: he's he's been here before on this stage and you

612
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 4: know they don't mind looking at him. And he's certainly

613
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 4: not the same player he was a few years ago.

614
00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 4: But I would say he's likely the second or maybe

615
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 4: third most reliable player in this offense amongst these pass catchers.

616
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 4: So yeah, I think Cooper Cup is a guy that

617
00:29:09,560 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 4: I would probably be more interested in betting, just because

618
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 4: the line is so low and Jason is boost up

619
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 4: a little bit. I think if I were to be

620
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 4: betting jasn it, I would probably prefer to do it

621
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 4: in the alt markets, just because I feel like I'm

622
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 4: getting more value there rather than just taking that medium

623
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:26,000
Speaker 4: prop came through last week tracked him at uh, I

624
00:29:26,040 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 4: think it was six to one. One fifty plus came

625
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 4: through for that. So I would probably prefer Jason in

626
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:33,160
Speaker 4: the alt markets rather than just his median baseline.

627
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's he is tough to stuff. I mean they

628
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: lit him up in the backfield, so he's he's gonna

629
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 1: get his It's just about you know what the game

630
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 1: script is. I personally do think Seattle will continue to

631
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: go past heavy just because of that Patriots run defense,

632
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: even in you know, a game script that could be

633
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:53,080
Speaker 1: you know, potentially a little different. We'll see. But Kerner,

634
00:29:53,120 --> 00:29:55,040
Speaker 1: I'll kick it to you on this one. You know,

635
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: we have like essentially there's Jaysen and as everybody else.

636
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 1: So I guess i'll ask you with the Patriots, we

637
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: have like a lot of cardio king potential, which is,

638
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: you know, just like guys out there running a ton

639
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: of routes not getting targeted. You know, Kayshaun Booty is

640
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:14,600
Speaker 1: a guy who under two and a half receptions is like,

641
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 1: that's something you know people have been on. Do we

642
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 1: want to run that back?

643
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:18,440
Speaker 2: You know?

644
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 1: Matt Hollins, you know that, you know that could always happen.

645
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: I think we like his overs, but just how do

646
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: you kind of see it, How do you kind of

647
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 1: see it pointing out for the Patriots, you know, outside

648
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: of Henry, like anything else, you're looking at wide receiver wise,

649
00:30:32,280 --> 00:30:34,400
Speaker 1: you know, maybe to fade or just you know, top

650
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: level thoughts.

651
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 2: That's it's tricky. I don't think I'm gonna run it

652
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: back with the booty fade this week to make it

653
00:30:42,720 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: three straight, because even though I did cash last week,

654
00:30:47,920 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 2: it was a zero out of a ten. Do not

655
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:54,560
Speaker 2: recommend Sweat because he's been Drake May's top target in

656
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,000
Speaker 2: the playoffs so far. He actually leads a team with

657
00:30:57,120 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 2: a twenty six percent first read rate. On the regular season,

658
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,400
Speaker 2: it was his fourteen percent. I mean, his target rate

659
00:31:04,000 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 2: was super low all year, and then in the playoffs

660
00:31:06,800 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 2: he's now the top receiver. So last week, you know,

661
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,160
Speaker 2: he only caught one pass, but I think he had

662
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:14,480
Speaker 2: a team high six targets, and you know, thankfully, the

663
00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 2: conditions were so sloppy that I think that did lead

664
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 2: to him dropping a couple. But he's getting a ton

665
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:22,040
Speaker 2: of targets. They're actually scheming him up for like easier

666
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:26,200
Speaker 2: targets too, not just you know, bombs downfield. So I'm

667
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:28,080
Speaker 2: kind of in line with the two and a half,

668
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 2: I haven't you know, figured out if I'm going to

669
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 2: go a certain direction. But do you think there's anything

670
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,200
Speaker 2: about this matchup that would lean you Raybon to be,

671
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: you know over under his reception prop.

672
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 1: Yes, the fact that it's I would probably lean over

673
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:48,400
Speaker 1: because it's not Patrick Sutanan, it's not Derek Stingly. He's

674
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 1: had some tough matchups and he's still been getting targeted

675
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 1: a ton. So I mean, if I'm gonna, like, if

676
00:31:56,240 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 1: you're the the opposing team and you're playing Seattle, so

677
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 1: they're good everywhere, let's get that, like there's no real weakness.

678
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:09,880
Speaker 1: But usually if you're talking about like the safeties versus

679
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 1: the corners, like Seattle's safeties might like they're right there

680
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: with their corners as like just as good. I mean,

681
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 1: you know, obviously Wetherspoon's great, but Wetherspoon's actually been getting

682
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 1: targeted the most, so I would think that he's on

683
00:32:22,920 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 1: Stefan Diggs the most. So I think Booty will continue

684
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:29,240
Speaker 1: to get targeted downfield, and I think I think Diggs

685
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,440
Speaker 1: will get a lot of shorter catches, like he could

686
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 1: get a lot of volume. But I don't know if

687
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 1: the yard is is gonna be there. And then Matt Collins.

688
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: I think he's kind of guy you want for like

689
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 1: big plays, and I think his like his median is

690
00:32:41,760 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: the lowest, and I think he especially with the Trail

691
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 1: and Dames to kind of go over that. So I

692
00:32:45,320 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 1: think I think the receivers in general will probably be

693
00:32:47,880 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: a little bit more involved than people think. You know,

694
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:53,520
Speaker 1: it's just a question of how efficient are they. But

695
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 1: Frick may shown he's going to target his receivers against

696
00:32:57,280 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 1: regardless of how good the defense is. In Kerner, you

697
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:02,000
Speaker 1: pointed out that Henry not really a guy that they

698
00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: target early either, so one way or another, I think

699
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:07,160
Speaker 1: we're gonna see the receivers in the game plan, but

700
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 1: I think ultimately it's Booty would go over because of volume.

701
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 1: I also think we're Rodrick Stevenson can have a big

702
00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 1: game in the you know, catching the ball, especially if

703
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: it's not Henry. I think it's Steve. It's one of

704
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 1: those two. I think we'll get a lot of volume

705
00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:24,360
Speaker 1: and that could that could end up going to Diggs,

706
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 1: but I think it's going to be one of those

707
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:26,840
Speaker 1: guys in the checkdown game.

708
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:27,320
Speaker 4: All right.

709
00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: Any thoughts on any other thoughts on that. I know

710
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,240
Speaker 1: you like the mc hollands, any strong feelings on the

711
00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: other receivers, and then we'll talk about a certain backup

712
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 1: tight end that I know we all want to talk about.

713
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,040
Speaker 1: But any high level of thoughts on anything else, you know,

714
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 1: Patriot pass catcher wise before we move on.

715
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, we do project some value on the Hunter Henry

716
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:48,960
Speaker 4: over as well. We have met forty seven and a

717
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 4: half receiving yards. I wouldn't mind that play, I do.

718
00:33:52,040 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 4: I did have some interest in the Stefan Diggs receptions

719
00:33:54,680 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 4: prop as well. I think it was plus money plus

720
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 4: one ten for over four and a half. They were

721
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,800
Speaker 4: you getting him involved in that short, you know, quick

722
00:34:01,840 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 4: screen game pretty often last week. I think that was,

723
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 4: you know, potentially more so out of matchup. But they're

724
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 4: not gonna have an easy time with Seattle either, so

725
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 4: if they're looking to get the ball and Dick's hands,

726
00:34:10,760 --> 00:34:13,399
Speaker 4: maybe you could see some some quick passes like that

727
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 4: to dig So I was looking at.

728
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,440
Speaker 3: That a bit as well, but other than that, it

729
00:34:16,560 --> 00:34:17,960
Speaker 3: was more so obviously.

730
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,680
Speaker 4: I settled on Matt Collins being the guy who I

731
00:34:19,680 --> 00:34:21,799
Speaker 4: think is he is a very volatile option. But I

732
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 4: think you know, leaning into that potential variance does provide

733
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 4: some some some ceiling in this game. So that's kind

734
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:30,440
Speaker 4: of why why ultimately settled on Hollins. But yeah, that's

735
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:32,200
Speaker 4: kind of the rest of my thoughts for the Patriots.

736
00:34:32,320 --> 00:34:33,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I will say, you know it, you know,

737
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 1: anytime you have a situation where it's no one truly

738
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:39,799
Speaker 1: stands out, like I think, you know, there's a there's

739
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:43,680
Speaker 1: a I think Howinds probably has the best case of

740
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:47,120
Speaker 1: of the the like the top three receivers versus Henry.

741
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,799
Speaker 1: Maybe it's either Henry or Howinds, just because the thing

742
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:53,239
Speaker 1: about I worry about what Henry is, you know, the

743
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: kind of the point current rated he's not always involved

744
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 1: early because you know teams are going to kind of

745
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 1: game plan for him. And then McDonald's just just so

746
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 1: good that he's not gonna look at the last two

747
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 1: games and Henry's been quiet and you know, like not

748
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 1: still prepare for him. So he might still he might

749
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:10,000
Speaker 1: switch it up over the course of the game and

750
00:35:10,120 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 1: he could put emon Or on him. You could do

751
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 1: so many things that could kind of force Drake May

752
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:17,720
Speaker 1: to take like those those shots to h to Keayshan

753
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: Boudi like he's been taking against top corners, so and

754
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:21,959
Speaker 1: the fact that he's willing to do that, I think

755
00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 1: McDonald is a good enough coordinator to make that happen.

756
00:35:24,600 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 1: So it kind of it kind of does point back

757
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,360
Speaker 1: to mc hollins. And then I think to just some

758
00:35:29,480 --> 00:35:33,120
Speaker 1: checkdown but really more so just scrambling as well, which

759
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 1: is like those Drake May rush We all like pretty

760
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:40,000
Speaker 1: much Drake may rushing overs. But speaking of Cardio kings,

761
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:45,239
Speaker 1: Eric Saubert, I believe didn't. Has he didn't Has he

762
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 1: eve been targeted in the playoffs yet? I don't think so.

763
00:35:48,320 --> 00:35:51,879
Speaker 1: He's been the backup tight end though, And last week

764
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:55,920
Speaker 1: Kerner kind of caught our attention because Elijah Royal we

765
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:58,400
Speaker 1: thought he was gonna come back, and he did not

766
00:35:58,560 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 1: come back and was actually a scratch even though he

767
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: didn't have an injury designation. Now he's been out quite

768
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 1: a while, but you know, Sawbert could still be the

769
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,680
Speaker 1: number two tight end here. Now I saw he's questionable,

770
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:16,800
Speaker 1: But any thoughts on him as like a like, we're

771
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: looking for long shots here and I think we lean

772
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: Seahawks to kind of win or you know, score more

773
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,600
Speaker 1: points win the game. So is he a viable option

774
00:36:25,760 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 1: or do you think that, you know, like Arroyo's is

775
00:36:28,400 --> 00:36:30,759
Speaker 1: back at his role and then Sawbert's back to that

776
00:36:30,800 --> 00:36:34,120
Speaker 1: tight end three year roll and which is pretty much

777
00:36:34,120 --> 00:36:34,760
Speaker 1: a non entity.

778
00:36:35,040 --> 00:36:38,080
Speaker 2: I want absolutely nothing to do with Sober. I hope

779
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 2: Arroyo's back. I hope Arroo is active because I definitely

780
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 2: want to take you know, last year goes on his

781
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 2: over six and a half receiving yards, looking for some

782
00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 2: like overs for Royo. But I think if Royal is active,

783
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 2: I know Raybo, we talked about it. If he's active,

784
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:56,319
Speaker 2: he'd probably just go back to his usual role. Like

785
00:36:56,360 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 2: I don't think they just want to mix him in.

786
00:36:58,600 --> 00:37:00,879
Speaker 2: He's not really a blocker. So I think if he's

787
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 2: fully healthy and active, he could be out there. You know,

788
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 2: twenty thirty percent of Darnell's dropbacks and he's a you know,

789
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:11,360
Speaker 2: really good pass catching tight end for rookie. So I

790
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:14,360
Speaker 2: think Sabert's like attempted to take over that role, you know,

791
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 2: the past several weeks with Arroyo out, I don't know

792
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 2: why they didn't play him. I'd like to find that out.

793
00:37:20,719 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 2: But you know, if he's out, then I think Sobert

794
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 2: could be a viable like long dart throw, touchdown better

795
00:37:28,360 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 2: or something like that. But again, he hasn't Yeah, he

796
00:37:30,680 --> 00:37:33,719
Speaker 2: hasn't been targeted yet in the plast but he has

797
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 2: been out there. But just again, hopefully Oroo's active and

798
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,080
Speaker 2: I'll probably have an over on Arroyo.

799
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense to

800
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 1: bet Arroyo overs because he's every game he's been active,

801
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 1: he's been the number two tight end, so it seems

802
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,239
Speaker 1: like it's like an either or, and then it's it's

803
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 1: not like we haven't seen him, just be the number three.

804
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:56,319
Speaker 1: So I do think it's kind of sharp to take

805
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:00,439
Speaker 1: Arroyo now and then Saber if Arroyo was ann saw

806
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:02,560
Speaker 1: but would probably be a little undervalue, like closer to

807
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: game time anyway. But Kyle, any thoughts on that or

808
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 1: just any any other long touch long shot excuse me,

809
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 1: bets that you're looking at in that same thing.

810
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:13,799
Speaker 3: Uh No, I think I got all my thoughts on

811
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,960
Speaker 3: the pass coaches across. I think the one long shot.

812
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 4: That I wanted to get out there was the Tongua

813
00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:20,720
Speaker 4: forty to one touchdown play. I do think that's an interestingly,

814
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 4: it's a fun sweat. Other than that, I think I

815
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 4: covered all my long shots that we've in terms of

816
00:38:25,719 --> 00:38:26,840
Speaker 4: the player props so far.

817
00:38:27,920 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 1: And just real quick on I guess I'll stay I'll

818
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,040
Speaker 1: stay right with you, Kyle Donald, like we talked about,

819
00:38:35,040 --> 00:38:36,920
Speaker 1: may you and I have our betting Maine in a

820
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 1: number of ways. Any thoughts on Donald in this one,

821
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 1: just because we really haven't talked about.

822
00:38:43,400 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think, you know, we we did

823
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,000
Speaker 4: touch a little bit on, you know, maybe more pass

824
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 4: heavy approach here. You mentioned obviously the difficult matchup for

825
00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 4: the running game against the Patriots, and also I do

826
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 4: think that, you know, losing Zach Charbonny is going to

827
00:38:56,600 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 4: you know, allow them to just lean to the pass

828
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 4: a bit more. So I do think there's gonna be

829
00:39:00,560 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 4: a little bit of increased volume. But other than that,

830
00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 4: I haven't you know, seen a ton of no leans

831
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,640
Speaker 4: for me in the props from a Donald perspective. But

832
00:39:07,880 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 4: I do think that is trickling down to maybe some

833
00:39:09,719 --> 00:39:12,560
Speaker 4: of his pass catchers and obviously some unders for for

834
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:16,800
Speaker 4: Kenneth Walker and whatnot. But the Donald you know, passive approach,

835
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 4: I do think is a is a pretty real angle

836
00:39:18,680 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 4: for for this one.

837
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, you he nearly had he had over

838
00:39:22,040 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 1: third or forty yards last game, so I think some

839
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:26,960
Speaker 1: like alt overs I think for Donald make a lot

840
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,680
Speaker 1: of sense if if you're if you like Seattle to

841
00:39:29,680 --> 00:39:31,600
Speaker 1: win the game, or if you like Donald for m

842
00:39:31,640 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: v P. Because and we'll get to that in a second,

843
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 1: but just because his MVP odds are short, but he'd

844
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 1: probably have to throw for three hundred plus or something

845
00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: like that, uh to get there, because JSN accounts for

846
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 1: so much teaser that that's That's probably a little of

847
00:39:47,200 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: how I'm thinking about that market. But any thoughts on

848
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 1: on Donald Turner and then we'll go into m v P.

849
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 2: No, I think both quarterbacks that I'm expecting to drop

850
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 2: back at a higher rate just because this is this

851
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:02,800
Speaker 2: either direction could be a trailing game script for both teams,

852
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 2: but I'm gonna probably wait to lock in quarterback props

853
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: last to kind of know what game script I'm going with.

854
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 2: Right now, I'm leaning towards, you know, Seattle covering the

855
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:17,440
Speaker 2: four and a half. I'm also interested in like Darnold's

856
00:40:17,520 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 2: rushing props because, like I mentioned on the fancy Flex,

857
00:40:23,080 --> 00:40:25,560
Speaker 2: he has yet to run the ball in the third quarter,

858
00:40:25,920 --> 00:40:29,800
Speaker 2: which I found interesting. Usually it's gonna be the second

859
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,040
Speaker 2: and fourth quarter because of you know, the two minute

860
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:36,200
Speaker 2: offense Neil downs. But for whatever reason, he hasn't run

861
00:40:36,239 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 2: the ball once in the third quarter, and they're offering,

862
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:42,120
Speaker 2: you know, minus two to eighty for him to not

863
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 2: have a rushing yard in the third quarter. I don't

864
00:40:44,320 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 2: know if that's necessarily one of those bets where it's

865
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 2: like I'm gonna bet that to any juice, but I'm

866
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:51,399
Speaker 2: definitely taking a close look at it.

867
00:40:52,239 --> 00:40:53,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it makes some sense because you don't

868
00:40:53,840 --> 00:40:56,239
Speaker 1: have the two minute in that off in that third quarter.

869
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 1: Seattle is usually leading, so you don't have to be

870
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,680
Speaker 1: as aggressive. You know, I got third on a scrambling

871
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 1: or whatnot, and you have you had two running backs

872
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:04,839
Speaker 1: for most of the year, and Barner is the short

873
00:41:04,880 --> 00:41:08,680
Speaker 1: yardage guy. So if there is a yeah, like sixth

874
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 1: short yardage, it doesn't have to be Donald. You don't

875
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 1: want to get get him hurt. I mean, this is

876
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:13,879
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl, So you could see a little bit.

877
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 1: I lost on a Donald prop rushing prop on his

878
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: long run. He did scramble, So maybe I'm just salty,

879
00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 1: but I could see it. You could see it slip.

880
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 1: Uh at a Super Bowl. But let's get into the

881
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:32,320
Speaker 1: Super Bowl MVP and we'll each give out our favorite

882
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 1: pick for that based on, you know, just where we

883
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 1: see the market value as we record this on the

884
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:44,319
Speaker 1: Thursday before the Thursday before the Super Bowl. So here's

885
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:48,959
Speaker 1: our favorite Super Bowl sixty m VP, presented by DraftKings

886
00:41:49,200 --> 00:41:50,760
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner. You're up first.

887
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna go with AJ Barner at one hundred

888
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:57,760
Speaker 2: to one here. And he's a long shot for reason

889
00:41:57,840 --> 00:42:00,760
Speaker 2: because no tight end has ever won Super Bowl MVP.

890
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 2: And you know, Barner's receiving prop is only like twenty

891
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:06,880
Speaker 2: four and a half yards. I'm in line with that.

892
00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 2: So he doesn't, you know, seem like the type of

893
00:42:09,200 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 2: player who's going to break that trend. But he does

894
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:15,320
Speaker 2: have that ten catch seven yard game earlier of the season.

895
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 2: May have to have a similar type of game here,

896
00:42:18,440 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 2: but he does have a unique path. And why I

897
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 2: like him here is that he is the main ball

898
00:42:23,600 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 2: carrier in their version of the Tousch push. So he

899
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:31,560
Speaker 2: could have a solid six catches seventy yard touchdown game

900
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 2: where that's the only touchdown pass from Darnold and also,

901
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 2: you know, a rushing touchdown from the toush push. So

902
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,919
Speaker 2: if it's a low scoring game, I think that could

903
00:42:40,920 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 2: be enough. He's you know, nineteen to one right now

904
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 2: to score two plus touchdowns. I think if he has

905
00:42:46,360 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 2: two touchdowns in a lower scoring game, he's got it shot.

906
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:50,359
Speaker 2: So I think at you know, one hundred to one,

907
00:42:50,920 --> 00:42:53,680
Speaker 2: he's definitely worth a flyers since he has a unique

908
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 2: path for a tight end to kind of sneak in.

909
00:42:57,640 --> 00:42:59,760
Speaker 1: Ha Ury, who do you like? Four Super Bowl sixty.

910
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:02,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna cheat a little bit here.

911
00:43:02,880 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 4: I'm gonna take two guys because I wanted to throw

912
00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 4: one hundred to one play that I also have some

913
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 4: interest in. It is a similar you know, reasoning behind

914
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 4: Sean's play. I like Cooper Cup one hundred to one.

915
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 4: I touched on why I like him a little bit

916
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 4: in this one. But so far the season, three players

917
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:18,960
Speaker 4: have attempted a pass for the Seahawks. Sam Darnold, Drew Locke,

918
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 4: and Cooper Cup has thrown one pass this year. We've

919
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,000
Speaker 4: seen some crazy things in Super Bowl. Maybe he throws one,

920
00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:26,480
Speaker 4: maybe he catches one. Maybe he finds the end zone

921
00:43:26,560 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 4: multiple times with that. Obviously, that's a very you know,

922
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:32,000
Speaker 4: minute angle to play there, but one hundred to one.

923
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 4: He's a guy who can easily find the en zone

924
00:43:33,640 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 4: or two times, and I think two weeks Clin Kubiak

925
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:38,560
Speaker 4: can easily work up a fun little play there. But

926
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 4: my primary pick here is gonna be Drake May.

927
00:43:41,680 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 3: Plus two thirty or plus two forty.

928
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:44,759
Speaker 4: This is also a little bit of a of a

929
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 4: semi hedge here, obviously not a perfect hedge, but obviously

930
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 4: I'm someone who's very high on Seattle in this game. Obviously,

931
00:43:50,400 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 4: if the Patriots win, Drake May would be the favorite

932
00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 4: to win the Super Bowl MVP, so it's a slight

933
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 4: hedge there as well. But obviously it is fairly difficult

934
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 4: to bet a non quarterback in this market. You do

935
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 4: need a really significant outlier game because of you know

936
00:44:04,239 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 4: how bias the.

937
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:08,560
Speaker 3: Award really is for quarterbacks.

938
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,239
Speaker 4: But I'll take Drake May as my official pick here

939
00:44:11,360 --> 00:44:12,320
Speaker 4: at plus two thirty.

940
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Jackson Smith and Jigba at plus

941
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,120
Speaker 1: five fifty. I think he is the best value on

942
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 1: the board by far, because if you look at the past, yes,

943
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:26,319
Speaker 1: quarterbacks have won the award at a staggering rate, but

944
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:29,279
Speaker 1: if you look at some of the recent past, when

945
00:44:29,280 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 1: there's a game that kind of sets up similarly to this.

946
00:44:32,040 --> 00:44:34,720
Speaker 1: We saw Julian Edelman win when in a low scoring

947
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 1: game a few years ago. He didn't even get catch

948
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 1: a touchdown in that game, and we saw Cooper cut

949
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:43,319
Speaker 1: win one, and he's essentially kind of like the you

950
00:44:43,320 --> 00:44:46,759
Speaker 1: know what JSN is to the Seahawks now. So at

951
00:44:46,760 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 1: plus five fifty, it's like, when you look at the game,

952
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: who's the favorite Seattle, who's the best player on the

953
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 1: Seahawks JSN, who's the favorite to win the MVP? Donald?

954
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: What does Donald have to do to win the MVP?

955
00:44:58,000 --> 00:45:00,840
Speaker 1: Target JSN a lot. So I think that, you know,

956
00:45:00,920 --> 00:45:04,799
Speaker 1: JSN and Donald shouldn't be that divergent in terms of

957
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:08,720
Speaker 1: their markets because Jason just has such a large share

958
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:12,839
Speaker 1: of that Seattle offense and it's really hard to stop him,

959
00:45:13,520 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 1: regardless of you know, the fact that the Patriots have

960
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: two weeks. I mean, jays N has lined up in

961
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 1: the backfield. Tom Brady was like, yeah, he's lining up

962
00:45:21,560 --> 00:45:23,480
Speaker 1: in the backgard, He's gonna get targeted, and then it

963
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 1: would just happened and they couldn't, like, no one could

964
00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 1: stop it. It's been like that all year and if

965
00:45:28,200 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 1: for some reason you know Seattle does in fact, you

966
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 1: know trail more than they have in the past, because

967
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:35,440
Speaker 1: you know this is just like you know they've won

968
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:38,080
Speaker 1: so many games, then that just helps JSN from a

969
00:45:38,160 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: volume standpoint. So I love, love love him at plus

970
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:45,360
Speaker 1: five fifty, I think Donald is probably the most overvalued,

971
00:45:46,320 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 1: you know, in terms of the odds, even though I

972
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 1: do expect to see Hawks two in the game. So

973
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner has a j Barner at one hundred to one,

974
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 1: You have Drake May at over two to one, and

975
00:45:57,239 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 1: I have JSN at over five to one. Those our

976
00:46:01,239 --> 00:46:06,840
Speaker 1: favorite Super Bowl sixty MVP picks, presented by Draft Kings.

977
00:46:07,120 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 1: The crown is yours. All right. That's gonna wrap it

978
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 1: up for us again, eighth annual Propapalooza. Thank you so

979
00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 1: much for listening enough for us to get you know,

980
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 1: to our eighth one. We really appreciate you out there.

981
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:21,879
Speaker 1: Hope everyone enjoys the Super Bowl again. We'll be back.

982
00:46:23,280 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 1: We got four more prop episodes here on Action. Be

983
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:32,919
Speaker 1: sure to check out the Action Network app and sign

984
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:34,839
Speaker 1: up for Pro That's where you can get real time

985
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:38,920
Speaker 1: pickleworks and we'll have our main betting preview episode with

986
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:42,120
Speaker 1: Me and Stucky that'll be out next Wednesday, So normal

987
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:45,120
Speaker 1: time just skipping you know this week and gonna get

988
00:46:45,160 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 1: to you know, the true handicap of the game and

989
00:46:47,480 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 1: all that stuff next week. And then we got the

990
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:53,320
Speaker 1: two I prop shows tomorrow, two more next Tuesday featuring

991
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 1: Nick Giffon, Grant Me and more. So be sure to

992
00:46:57,080 --> 00:47:00,360
Speaker 1: subscribe because you want to be on the Action Network

993
00:47:00,440 --> 00:47:04,360
Speaker 1: YouTube page so you do not miss an episode. Brandon

994
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Speaker 1: Anderson and Van Abrams w bat for best Bets next

995
00:47:07,920 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: week as well, and Jill Kerner and I will get

996
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 1: into any time touchdowns for the super Bowl, which should

997
00:47:15,600 --> 00:47:18,160
Speaker 1: be fun because I think there's just a lot of

998
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 1: uncertainty so could actually get a long shot to hit you,

999
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 1: even though you don't see that as much in some

1000
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 1: of these big games. I don't forget. Right now, you

1001
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Speaker 1: actionnetwork dot com slash Pro and sign up for Action Pro.

1005
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1006
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1007
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1008
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1009
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Speaker 1: winning Action Network app until the next of many Let's

1010
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Speaker 1: Get This money. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1011
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