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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm optimistic. I mean, I think

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Speaker 1: it's warm Buffett that has never bet against the American economy.

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Speaker 1: I think that work the markets. Just saying one movie

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Speaker 1: year defeats saying one move for quarter. That is a

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Speaker 1: huge diverts. If you look at the unemployment rates that exist,

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Speaker 1: especially among the youth in Europe, there is an ample

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Speaker 1: supply of labor to be gotten. There is no inflation

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Speaker 1: to be found. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to the world

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Speaker 1: of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning everyone,

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee and chom Keene a little less fireworks and

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Speaker 1: yesterday morning. Nevertheless, we'll give you perspective across all of

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Speaker 1: economics in this our finance and derivatives. Uh, Julian Emmanuel

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Speaker 1: will join us with you yes here in a moment.

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Speaker 1: Just lots to talk about the ramifications and outcome. Lots

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Speaker 1: of kitchen sinks out on Twitter yesterday. Is that is

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Speaker 1: what it has suggested President Droggy did bloom Or surveillance

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Speaker 1: in this hour and always marked you by cone Resnick Accounting,

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Speaker 1: Techs Advisory Trust cone Resinc. For the strategy, the insight,

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Speaker 1: your business needs to move forward. Find out what cone

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Speaker 1: Resnick thinks and sign up for Insight. Do that at

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Speaker 1: cone Resnick dot com. C O h N R e

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Speaker 1: z n I C K cone Resnick dot com. Julie

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Speaker 1: and I have never looked more forward to speaking to

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Speaker 1: you then right now. All we've done is economics I

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Speaker 1: S L. M. Phillips curve economics, boring Mr Manuel is

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Speaker 1: with US equity into riversive strategy UBS. How did Mr

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Speaker 1: drogg E change your world yesterday? Well, looks so he

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Speaker 1: obviously he's surprised the Buzuka was even bigger than we expected.

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Speaker 1: But you know, and and and that's a backstop, no

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Speaker 1: question about it. But he did draw lines. Uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: there are limits to how low negative rates can actually go,

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Speaker 1: but it definitely was a psychological boost. And I think

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Speaker 1: where we are in terms of the markets and sentiment,

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Speaker 1: as poor as sentiment has been since the start of

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Speaker 1: the year, what we're finding is that positive surprises you

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Speaker 1: can tend to have an asymmetric upside reaction, and you're

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Speaker 1: seeing that this morning because we had a positive surprise

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Speaker 1: on television last night when we saw a very very reasoned,

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Speaker 1: positive debate on substance issues. I'll let you link that in.

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Speaker 1: We're not going to do that for you. Julian, give

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Speaker 1: me an update from u BS Zurich, New York, London,

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Speaker 1: give me an update on the liquidity into the weekend.

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Speaker 1: The backdrop for president dragging was real issues about simple liquidity,

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Speaker 1: but also some great complexities in the Julian Emmanuel world.

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Speaker 1: Is it liquid out there? Is there oil in the engine? Well,

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Speaker 1: what we saw um the first couple of months told

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Speaker 1: us that liquidity was absolutely challenged, as all assets to

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Speaker 1: correlate to one and move in lock step. But over

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Speaker 1: the last month, particularly as data has gotten better, and

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Speaker 1: there's the sense that yes there is a backstop with

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Speaker 1: respect to European financials and that in fact the US

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Speaker 1: economy it could actually be doing better than very reduced expectations.

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Speaker 1: Liquidity is coming back. It's still challenged, but it's a

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Speaker 1: gradual process. There's a question about liquidity in Europe following

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Speaker 1: the e c B. If they're gonna start buying lots

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Speaker 1: of corporates, are we going to have a shortage of

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Speaker 1: bonds to trade in the corporate sector to go along

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Speaker 1: with the shortagetite seemed to have in the government sector,

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Speaker 1: It's definitely possible. I mean, those are considerations. But you know,

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Speaker 1: the psychology of of of that was something that I

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Speaker 1: think Droggy knew coming into yesterday, and it was a

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Speaker 1: calculated effort to sort of portray it as a positive

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Speaker 1: and by all rights, he seems to have succeeded. Can

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Speaker 1: I excuse UH? Is the positive reaction we're seeing today

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Speaker 1: based on the idea that Drugg is doing something or

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Speaker 1: is it based on mathematical calculations of the impact this

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Speaker 1: will have on UH, financial markets, asset prices UH and

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Speaker 1: feeding into the economy. Well it's really both. But but

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Speaker 1: if you look at it again, and we've been saying

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Speaker 1: this for a while, you really almost had a negativity

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Speaker 1: bubble in January and February. You had bad news coming

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Speaker 1: out of China volatility there, you had another leg down

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Speaker 1: in the oil markets that no one really was expecting.

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Speaker 1: Then you had weak data globally which turned in February.

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Speaker 1: And so the reality is is that in this type

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Speaker 1: of situation, particularly when earnings are still going to be

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Speaker 1: challenged on the corporate front globally, psychology is much more

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Speaker 1: important than usual. And you know, he's he's doing what

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Speaker 1: he feels is necessary to get psychology turned in right direction.

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Speaker 1: Did you change your strategy? And may I expand that

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Speaker 1: Julian to say, did UBS change it's strategy of what

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Speaker 1: we saw yesterday? Not materially no um. In fact, as

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Speaker 1: you saw with the reaction in the euro. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's our view that what's being done is eventually going

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Speaker 1: to stabilize Europe and and allow it to resume a

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Speaker 1: growth trajectory. UM into the end of two thousand sixteen

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Speaker 1: and two thousand seventeen, we actually think that the euro

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Speaker 1: could trade modestly higher from here against the dollar. What

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Speaker 1: does that mean for UM equity investments in Europe? Then, well,

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Speaker 1: you know, you've had this incredible divergence between defenses and

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Speaker 1: more cyclical issues, particularly banks, and obviously the whole story

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Speaker 1: about financials in Europe is going to continue to be challenged,

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Speaker 1: but it really it provides just a more favorable backdrop.

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Speaker 1: And and again we go back to this entire issue

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Speaker 1: of psychology. If you if you're providing measures that can

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Speaker 1: in effect dampen volatility and support liquidity, that's the kind

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Speaker 1: of time buying exercise that central bankers have been undertaking.

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Speaker 1: Essentially since two thousand and eight that that we think

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Speaker 1: succeeds and and give the room for growth. If I

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Speaker 1: make a statement Julian that the punch bowl was refilled yesterday,

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Speaker 1: what does that mean for equity markets? Obviously, it's seventeen thousand,

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Speaker 1: forty four on the futures opening up a hundred and

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Speaker 1: forty two points. Things are pretty good, saving us from

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Speaker 1: correction or bear market. But how do you link something

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Speaker 1: as historical as the punch bowl with my enthusiasm for equities. Well,

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Speaker 1: there's no doubt that they do have a reasonably clear linkage.

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Speaker 1: And part of the markets um anxiety has been that

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Speaker 1: the FED is the one that is perceived to actually

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Speaker 1: be draining the punch bowl, whereas the e c B,

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Speaker 1: the Bank of Japan, the People's Bank of China are

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Speaker 1: the ones that are refilling the punch bowl. And that

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Speaker 1: sort of shoving off of responsibility is something that's unnerved people.

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Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, we still think

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Speaker 1: the SET is going to be very incremental and very

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Speaker 1: cautious about its own draining activities, and and that's an

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Speaker 1: equity supportive environment. You hear both sides of the argument

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Speaker 1: on the FED from people in the markets. You hear

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Speaker 1: them say the fens is going to be very incremental,

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Speaker 1: and then they all say, well, things are gonna be

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Speaker 1: terrible because the Fed may raise rates too fast. Why

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Speaker 1: why what? Why can't people agree on what the FET

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Speaker 1: is going to do? Here? Is it the feds fault? Uh?

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Speaker 1: It is. But but there's a purposefulness in that the

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Speaker 1: set is made. It very clear since the Taper tantrum

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Speaker 1: began in May of two thousand thirteen, that this cycle

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Speaker 1: was going to be unlike any other cycle. Certainly unlike

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Speaker 1: UH the oh four to oh six rate hike cycle,

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Speaker 1: where you went once UH at every consecutive meeting, seventeen meetings,

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Speaker 1: and volatility was very low. This is a different time.

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Speaker 1: We've never come off of the zero interest rate bound.

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Speaker 1: It's never been done successfully in the history of modern finance.

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Speaker 1: So the stead needs the flexibility. But the message that

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Speaker 1: said sent out in the in the January Minutes um

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Speaker 1: mentioning the word uncertainty nineteen times, you know, very historic

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Speaker 1: U is something that says to investors, we are going

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Speaker 1: to continue to air on the side of cautions. You

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Speaker 1: know how to fight INFLA my keyword yesterday and have

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Speaker 1: the luxury talking to your colleague Paul Donovan, was the

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Speaker 1: word horizon, which is, you know, Julian has all sorts

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Speaker 1: of mathematical and physics connotations. MARYA. Droggs looking out to

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Speaker 1: a horizon and then beyond it, do I do what

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Speaker 1: I do with my money? Knowing that Mario Draggy can't

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Speaker 1: even see the horizon X number of years out? Can

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Speaker 1: I have a newer confidence off of yesterday? Uh? It is.

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Speaker 1: It is something that's going to take time, tom and

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Speaker 1: and that's that's part of this entire equation. Central bankers

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Speaker 1: consistently since two thousand and eight have been buying time

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Speaker 1: for investor psychology to improve, for economic fundamentals to improve.

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Speaker 1: And what we're finding in a post debt crisis environment

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Speaker 1: is that it's a very difficult, drawn out process, but

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Speaker 1: it is going to succeed. No, this is great, Julian Emmanuel.

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Speaker 1: This will come back and talk about specifics of the

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Speaker 1: market as well. Mike. I love how we're looking at economics,

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Speaker 1: and then you've got a guy like Mr Manuel looking

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Speaker 1: at much more over towards what I'll call applied investment,

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Speaker 1: Like what do you actually do? What do you actually do?

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Speaker 1: With all the international economics we saw yesterday. I again, folks,

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Speaker 1: Catherine Man this more was blistering in her support of Mr. Drug.

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Speaker 1: She meants no words about it, that that this was

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Speaker 1: done with intellectual courage and with a real conviction of

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Speaker 1: where he wants Europe to be. Almost Mike is a

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Speaker 1: surrogate fiscal authority. Well, that's uh, that is true. That's

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Speaker 1: one of the criticisms of central banks these days is

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Speaker 1: have they gone too far in that direction? There's no

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Speaker 1: question about that. Let's do the day to check here

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Speaker 1: on a Friday, Green on the screen up nineteen dolfat

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Speaker 1: is up one seven two percent in view one pent

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Speaker 1: up two basis points and the year O a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a bit in the last twenty minutes one

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Speaker 1: eleven oh two, yen one thirty eight one euro yen

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Speaker 1: one six h thirty five off the Bloomberg. Have to

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Speaker 1: check in with like a buyer now and get the

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Speaker 1: latest world of national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, thank you

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Speaker 1: very much. Mourners will say their final goodbyes today to

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Speaker 1: Ancy Reagan, the former First Lady, will be buried today

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Speaker 1: next to her husband, who she adoringly called my Ronnie.

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Speaker 1: At the Reagan Presidential Library and Simi Valley, California. About

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Speaker 1: a thousand guests seven invited to today's final, including former

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Speaker 1: President George W. Bush. Reagan's two children will give remarks,

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Speaker 1: along with former NBC News anchor John Brokaw and James Baker,

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Speaker 1: who was with the Reagan administration. Donald Trump says he

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Speaker 1: has picked up the endorsement of former rival Ben Carson.

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Speaker 1: Trump made the announcement during the last night's Republican presidential

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Speaker 1: debate in Miami. Weekend strike deadline as approaching for more

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Speaker 1: than four thousand New Jersey Transit rail workers. New Jersey

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Speaker 1: Transit special console says key issues such as wages and

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Speaker 1: healthcare remain in play. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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Speaker 1: powered by our twenty four hundred journalists and more than

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Speaker 1: one hundred fifty news bureausrom around the world. I'm Michael Barn, Mike,

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Speaker 1: Tom Nichole bar Thanks so much, Julian Emmanuel. This with

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Speaker 1: the ubs as we look at the effect. Yesterday's enough

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Speaker 1: by Mr drag This is Bloomberg's Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance brought

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow

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Speaker 1: US dot get Next Future is higher this morning. Let's

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Speaker 1: go to the first Word Breaking news desk for today's

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Speaker 1: morning call. And here's Bill muloney. Good morning, Bill, Good

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Speaker 1: morning Karen. US features armytaining their games. Since the last

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Speaker 1: time we spoke, the futures hired by a hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty two points, says a BES Game twenty and as

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Speaker 1: a futures rise by fifty The US tennio at one

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Speaker 1: point nine and crude features trade to the highest level

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Speaker 1: since December. Over night in Asia, Hong Kong rose one

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Speaker 1: one percent and eup markets are also rising, led by

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Speaker 1: four percent gains in Italy on the economic Frinday a

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Speaker 1: thirty U S Import Price Index and Canadian unemployment data.

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Speaker 1: After Debellis night, Alta Salon Beach shares are hire by

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Speaker 1: thirteen percent pre market and regarding airrings this morning, Janesco,

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Speaker 1: you're just eups view missed estimates and hibit your EPs

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Speaker 1: view trailed estimates. Finally, some of your Walsh upgrades and downgrades.

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Speaker 1: Trans Canada cut your neutral over at City Group, black

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Speaker 1: Stone cut the whole versus by a Deutsche Bank over

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Speaker 1: at Goldman Sachs and a darker raised to buy Chevron

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Speaker 1: and Diamond off Shore, both raised to neutral. Finally, Semantic

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Speaker 1: raised outperform over at RBC Live from the first to

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Speaker 1: Breaking News descom Boll Maloney, Karen every thanks bail to

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Speaker 1: hear live breaking news over your Bloomberg type squawk go

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Speaker 1: on your terminal. That's ask you a w k go

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Speaker 1: and that's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike, Karen,

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Speaker 1: thanks so much. Bloomberg surveillance this morning brought you by Investco.

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Speaker 1: Have you considered all of your investment alternatives on traditional

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Speaker 1: We've done drug with Julian Emmanuel of UBS. Let's try

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Speaker 1: to figure out what to do about it. Julian, what

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Speaker 1: do I do about inflation break even? What do I

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Speaker 1: do about tips? What do I do about investing to

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Speaker 1: game a reversion to the mean in inflation? Can I

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Speaker 1: do that with confidence? Uh? Well, we think you can.

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Speaker 1: We think we saw sort of the panic bottom over

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Speaker 1: the last several months in inflation expectations. And I think

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Speaker 1: what you really have to ask yourself, Tom, is you

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Speaker 1: know what is this rally and gold all about. Is

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Speaker 1: it because of of an uncertainty hedge? Is it because

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Speaker 1: of a lack of faith in currencies? Or is it

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Speaker 1: because of the reason that over the last fourty or

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Speaker 1: fifty years has typically been the case in that this

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Speaker 1: low interest rate environment, maybe just maybe two or three

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Speaker 1: years down the road, is going to actually create inflation.

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Speaker 1: And we think that's sort of an untold story. And uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, the expectation is for gradually creeping higher inflation.

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Speaker 1: Do you invest? Do you invest on maybesough? Uh? Well, look,

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Speaker 1: there's always an element of that in investing. And and

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Speaker 1: again part of this is the psychology, which as we

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Speaker 1: look at it has become very intensely negative. And we

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Speaker 1: we do one thing we don't know, and I think

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Speaker 1: the entire globe has to has to really get their

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Speaker 1: arms around the fact. But maybe of what the ultimate

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Speaker 1: effect of negative interest rates is is something that's an unknown.

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Speaker 1: But what we do know is that at some point,

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Speaker 1: if the FED is going to be successful, if Mario

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Speaker 1: Drogg is going to be successful, we are going to

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Speaker 1: have more inflation. Look if you look at it, and

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Speaker 1: we've been waiting in a lot of people listening to

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Speaker 1: this program have been waiting and waiting and waiting for inflation.

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Speaker 1: All agrees, service sector inflation is elevated goods producing inflation

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Speaker 1: is not. How do you parse a two part economy

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Speaker 1: with your investment bet believing that service sector inflation will

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Speaker 1: win the day? Now that that that's a very good question,

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Speaker 1: and I think that's part of the conundrum that people

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Speaker 1: are facing right now. Um. You know, typically in this

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Speaker 1: part of the cycle, when the set begins raising interest rates,

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Speaker 1: we see the more cyclical sectors, the more cyclical indicators,

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Speaker 1: we see economic acceleration, We see inflation start to perk

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Speaker 1: up ever so slightly, particularly on the way front, which

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Speaker 1: is something we're seeing in fits and starts. Um. But

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Speaker 1: but it does raise this question. We're not convinced that

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Speaker 1: you want to tilt typlically yet. Uh, it's you know,

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Speaker 1: the oil price rebound is very encouraging, But we don't

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Speaker 1: think we're in an environment where you're going to have

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Speaker 1: the level of economic activity that's going to justify UH

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Speaker 1: fifty and sixty dollar oil in two thousand and sixteen.

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Speaker 1: So so we think that some of the beaten up

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Speaker 1: growth names are attractive here. Um, the FED raises rates.

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Speaker 1: Does that change things? Or is base points fifty base

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Speaker 1: points not a real change to your models? Well, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't change the models per se. But what it really

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Speaker 1: we think has the potential of doing is validating um,

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Speaker 1: the fact that everything else that we're seeing out of Europe,

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Speaker 1: out of China, the measures that are being taken are

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Speaker 1: ultimately going to be successful looking into two thousand and

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Speaker 1: seventeen as growth starts to normalize, and and that's the

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Speaker 1: potentially very positive signaling mechanism. Julian, Thank you so much, Julian,

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Speaker 1: Emmanuel Ubs linking your investment and all that's applied into

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Speaker 1: what we've been doing with international economics today. Mike, Um,

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Speaker 1: it's always a quiet economic week. Let me get over

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Speaker 1: to the right screen here, Um, I mean import price

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Speaker 1: it in seven minutes. I guess I'm not thrilled, tell me,

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Speaker 1: but retail sales coming up next week? Do we have

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Speaker 1: a clue? I mean, it's it's it's it's I see

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Speaker 1: negative statistics. You don't headline negative stats. Uh. And that

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Speaker 1: can be certainly influenced by the fact that gasoline prices

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Speaker 1: fell significantly last month. But we shall see what you know,

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Speaker 1: Auto sales weren't bad. And I was thunderstruck by Peter

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Speaker 1: who I has to point blank what's your year call?

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Speaker 1: He's sub two percent real GDP? Well, um, we don't

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Speaker 1: did not expect that? Yeah, um, well, there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of people are a lot of uncertainty. Put it that way,

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Speaker 1: built into everyone's forecast right now. Maybe that's the theme

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Speaker 1: for the weekend as we begin. Get you get if

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Speaker 1: if if what drug says works, what he did works,

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Speaker 1: then Europe picks up more demand for U S products.

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Speaker 1: The dollar is not higher, so American exports maybe go

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Speaker 1: who knows. I mean, there's a lot of factors that work. No.

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Speaker 1: I think you bring up an important thing besides euro parody,

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Speaker 1: and you heard Julian Emmanuel push against that. You're one O.

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Speaker 1: The certitude of a weaker euro means the certitude of

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Speaker 1: a stronger dollar. And as Michael McKey mentions, folks, that

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Speaker 1: has not happened. D X y point five three is

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Speaker 1: one of those indicators oil with a bit up a dollar,

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Speaker 1: you're really on the forty dollar watch for American West

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Speaker 1: Texas Intermedia right now thirty eight seventy seven on West

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Speaker 1: Texas Intermediate. Michael McKee and Tom Keane. Next, a bit

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Speaker 1: of economic data. It's Bloomberg Sings. Time for the with

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Speaker 1: all due respect highlight brought to you by land Rover.

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Speaker 1: an Bloomberg dot Com. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. What do

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Speaker 1: you say? Thirty on Wall Street I Michael McKee along

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Speaker 1: with Tom Keane Economic indicators brought to you by Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Financial Network. When it's time to change the conversation, talk

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Speaker 1: with a broker dealer r I A that's ready to listen,

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00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 1: call four six two three six three eight or visit

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth dot com to learn more. Well, the one number

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Speaker 1: we have out this morning is the Import price Index

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Speaker 1: down three tenths of eight percent. Last month it was

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Speaker 1: down one per cent, and so that is I guess

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Speaker 1: something I have it improvement the import price index year

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Speaker 1: over year down six point one percent. Our neighbors north

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Speaker 1: of the border are reporting their jobs figures and it

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Speaker 1: is not good news. Canada loses jobs in February. The

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Speaker 1: jobless rate climbs to seven point three percent. Yeah, but

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Speaker 1: there was just the NHL teams up there trading all

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Speaker 1: their players out. We wait until after the trading deadline

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Speaker 1: to put these figures out from Montreal to Chicago Blackhawks.

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Speaker 1: That directly affects Canada's force falls at the jobless light

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Speaker 1: TIS might now also have something to do with earl prices,

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Speaker 1: as they would say out West, um, but anyway, not

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Speaker 1: good news for Canada. Scott Brown is with he is

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Speaker 1: as and your vice president, Chief Economists at Raymond James Associates.

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Speaker 1: He's down in the Tampa area, believe in we we

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Speaker 1: talked to him, I think last about the Tampa Bay lightning.

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Speaker 1: Well we did, Scott. I just want to jump in here.

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Speaker 1: I know we want to get the drug you and

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Speaker 1: all that. Why do I care about import price indexes?

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Speaker 1: John writing it already? Hugh makes a big deal about this.

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Speaker 1: Why does Scott Brown care about import prices? Weally, it's

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Speaker 1: one part of the overall inflation outlook. UM. We've seen

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Speaker 1: obviously a strong dollar, substantial weakness in commodity prices, particular

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Speaker 1: energy UM, and that has a mixed effect on the economy.

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Speaker 1: It's especially beneficial to consumers because that means the price

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Speaker 1: of goods are are going to be a lot lower UM,

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Speaker 1: and particularly drop a gasoline. That leaves them your typical

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Speaker 1: consumer with the more money to spend on other things.

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Speaker 1: So that's very very much a positive. But we're also

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Speaker 1: seeing downward pressure on export prices. You know, for the US,

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Speaker 1: we export a lot of raw materials, We explored a

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Speaker 1: lot of farm products, and those prices have been down

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Speaker 1: pretty substantially year over yere UM. That may change, since

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Speaker 1: much of that is based on the weather. We were

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Speaker 1: talking yesterday about that with Dennis Garwin, who sees higher

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Speaker 1: prices for soft commodities. If we start getting um, we

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Speaker 1: start getting a higher prices, hows that affect us? Well,

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Speaker 1: this should the bottom ount. In fact, I think the

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Speaker 1: policymakers anticipate that, you know, we'll see at least some

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Speaker 1: stabilization and if not improvement. And we've already seen oil

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Speaker 1: prices rebound. We're now at thirty eight dollars for w

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Speaker 1: T I that you know, certainly trending higher. Uh. So

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Speaker 1: many things have turned um. You know, we mentioned the

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Speaker 1: stronger dollar. Particularly if you look at the first couple

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Speaker 1: of months of this year, we had a you know,

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Speaker 1: even a further game in the dollar versus our two

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Speaker 1: key trading partners, Canada and Mexico that now has turned

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Speaker 1: the corner and started to move the other way. Very

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Speaker 1: often you'll see currencies over shooting in one direction and

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Speaker 1: then eventually correction correcting. So I think that's where we

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Speaker 1: are now. It's you know, at some point people are

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Speaker 1: going to start looking at emerging economies and not be

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Speaker 1: so fearful. Maybe the capital starts flowing, you know, back

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Speaker 1: out of the US towards these emerging economies. Getting that

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Speaker 1: timing is going to be pretty difficult, but you know,

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Speaker 1: it may have already started when I look at global

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Speaker 1: GDP on a Friday, and of course after all the

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Speaker 1: festivities of yesterday as well, when the clarion emotions of

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Speaker 1: this first quarter, as city groups called of global recession

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Speaker 1: and the gaming of the probability, and that the backdrop

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Speaker 1: of this is the US does okay, England does okay?

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Speaker 1: Ireland I believe showed great numbers yesterday's Many have mentioned

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Speaker 1: Spain as well. What is the likelihood, Scott Brown now

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Speaker 1: of global recession? Well, I think we're relatively close. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the oil I m F definition three,

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Speaker 1: global growth used to be uh considered a global recession,

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Speaker 1: and that is because a lot of these emerging economies

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Speaker 1: normally are going to be growing a lot faster. It's

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Speaker 1: a little bit less than three percent now and that's

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Speaker 1: because you have to account for the population growth slowing down.

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Speaker 1: So you know, we're we're you know, relatively thought. I mean,

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Speaker 1: that's that's no surprise. UM. I think there's really an

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Speaker 1: over obsession with this uh with our word. UM. You know,

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Speaker 1: I've been getting calls almost daily, are we heading into recession?

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Speaker 1: Out of piece the last week about the how you

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Speaker 1: determine whether we are one in a recession, what the

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Speaker 1: indicators are, um. And the fear is that we're gonna

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Speaker 1: end up talking ourselves into one. And and that's really

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Speaker 1: I think the dominant factor the issue. But Mike, one

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Speaker 1: of the great observations which I think, Michael McKie you

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Speaker 1: brought up this week for Scott Brown is the exit

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Speaker 1: polls from the Michigan primary and how people feel about

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Speaker 1: Scott Brown's American economy. Yeah. The amazing thing. Eight of

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Speaker 1: ten voters in Mississippi are very concerned about the state

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Speaker 1: of the economy, which is different from what you hear

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Speaker 1: from people like Scott Brot. Well, it's exactly the true.

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Speaker 1: And in this sort of political environment as well. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you've got one side who you know, this has to

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Speaker 1: be a terrible economy because you want to see the

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Speaker 1: white white house switch parties. You're gonna hear that rhetoric. Um.

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Speaker 1: And for most people, granted, I mean, you know, they

429
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: do not feel much of a of a recovery here. Um.

430
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:24,080
Speaker 1: You know, this has been really a very slow going

431
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 1: for the middle class, not just during this recovery but

432
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: over the last ten or twenty years. And I think

433
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 1: when you're seeing that in evidence and who people are supporting,

434
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 1: they feel like the establishment, both Republican and Democrat, have

435
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 1: really kind of left them behind. Well very quickly, you're

436
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 1: Scott Brown, was Mario drags work yesterday not less about economics,

437
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,680
Speaker 1: but was there a tinge of politics to it as well?

438
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: I didn't get that sense at all. I think, Um,

439
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:54,040
Speaker 1: you know, the ECB had disappointed investors in December by

440
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 1: not not doing enough, uh, and then yesterday they they

441
00:26:57,760 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 1: pulled out not just a bazooka but all of them,

442
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 1: it because and fired them all off at once. But

443
00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 1: the ironic thing is drogg He ended up snatching defeat

444
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: from the jaws of victory by you know, hinting that

445
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 1: you know, they're very unlikely to do much more right away.

446
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 1: I think the markets have kind of, you know, geared

447
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: to this sort of you know, opiate of easier monetary policy,

448
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: and and if they don't get it, they're gonna go

449
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,600
Speaker 1: through withdrawals. Stop growing with us with Raymond James love

450
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,440
Speaker 1: to have him on. He took his degree at San

451
00:27:25,520 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: Diego under the laureate's angle and Granger. That is really cool.

452
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:38,680
Speaker 1: Scott Brown will continue with us. All right, let's check

453
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 1: in with like a bar and get the latest world

454
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:42,480
Speaker 1: in national headlines. Michael find Tom, thank you very much.

455
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: Nancy Reagan's two children will give remarks at today's funeral

456
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: for the former First Lady. Nancy Reagan will be buried

457
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Liberry and Semi Valley, California,

458
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: next to her husband. For the five living former First

459
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 1: Ladies will also attend today's funeral. It was a civil

460
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 1: debate among public and presidential candidates last night, free of

461
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: insults and shouting. The candidates discussed several issues, including social

462
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:11,160
Speaker 1: security and Muslims. This morning, Marco Rubio towed ABC News

463
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:16,080
Speaker 1: that Donald Trump nomination is not guaranteed. Traditionally, if anybody

464
00:28:16,160 --> 00:28:17,960
Speaker 1: else would be in the position that Donald is in,

465
00:28:18,440 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 1: everyone would be out there telling the rest of us

466
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 1: you need to get out and rally around him. It's

467
00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 1: not happening for one simple reason. The majority almost two

468
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: thirds of Republicans do not want Donald Trump to be

469
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 1: our nominate. One of the busiest rail systems in the

470
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: nation could come to a grinding hold the weekend strike

471
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,840
Speaker 1: deadline looms with New Jersey Transit union workers. Union leaders

472
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 1: and New Jersey Transit have been meeting hoping to avert

473
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: a strike early Sunday morning. Issues on the table include

474
00:28:44,120 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 1: wages and healthcare. Union workers have been without a contract

475
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: for almost five years. A strike means major commuting problems

476
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: in and out of New York City. Traffic experts say

477
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 1: a strike could mean backups of twenty miles or more

478
00:28:57,280 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 1: at the already busy Lincoln and Holland Tunnels. Global News

479
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,239
Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

480
00:29:03,320 --> 00:29:05,880
Speaker 1: hundred journalists and more than a hundred fifty news bureaus

481
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: from around the world at Michael Bar Mike Tom Thank you, Michael.

482
00:29:09,720 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 1: Time now for the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update with John Stash.

483
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 1: Thanks Michael. Find out Sunday the n C Double A

484
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 1: Tournament field. The New York area should be well represented

485
00:29:17,840 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: with Iona and Fairley. Dickinson already assured his spots Stony

486
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,080
Speaker 1: Brook can gain entry for the first time ever were

487
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 1: the win at home tomorrow over Vermont. The America East

488
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 1: Final starts at eleven in the morning. Monumuth may get

489
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: in at large bid and Seaton Hall will almost certainly

490
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:33,960
Speaker 1: get one of the firs, just be Craton one seventy

491
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 1: three Big East Quarterfinals at the Garden. They'll play Zaved

492
00:29:36,280 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 1: for tonight. Fordham lost to Richmond seventy to fifty five

493
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: at the Atlantic ten Attorney in Brooklyn, and Ruttors just

494
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:45,479
Speaker 1: went seven and twenty five and inspired coach Eddie Jordan's

495
00:29:45,680 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 1: Hockey Devils one three noting at San Jose the shout

496
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 1: out for Keith Kincaid NBA the last ever meeting between

497
00:29:50,600 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 1: Kobe Bryant and Lebron James. Kobe actually outscored Lebron the

498
00:29:54,280 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 1: kabsby the Lakers one twenty to one oh eight. There

499
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 1: has not been in the NBA finals without Kobe or

500
00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: Lebron in two thousands simes. So all this. Chapman will

501
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 1: begin the season suspended, but he can't pitch. In spring training,

502
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 1: made his Yankee debut, got two ounce but walked to

503
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: and hit two. Noah Synder guard sharp for the Mets

504
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 1: three school Oftennis. The Jets had added another running back,

505
00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 1: Kyrie Robinson, who broke his leg last season in New Orleans.

506
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: They also resigned Bilal Powell, who came on strong at

507
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:24,240
Speaker 1: the end of other New Giant linebacker Keendon Robinson signed

508
00:30:24,280 --> 00:30:27,760
Speaker 1: away from Washington with the Boomberg NBC Sports Up Day.

509
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: I'm john sishing John. It was great walk to two

510
00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 1: shades of bull Durham there yesterday in spring training. I

511
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 1: believe they probably had a conversation after that. It's it's

512
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:45,320
Speaker 1: spring training. Where it's spring. It's been lovely in New York,

513
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:49,720
Speaker 1: you know. It's it's average temperature in March. I looked

514
00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:53,960
Speaker 1: it up forty eight degrees and we're doing better than that.

515
00:30:54,640 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: The Russian rouble just broke seventy It is sixty nine

516
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: point eight two. The Russian ruble has appreciated fifteen point

517
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:10,280
Speaker 1: five rounded to fifteen percent. Mr Putin feeling a little

518
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: bit wealthier on this Friday morning Futures Up sixteen Stay

519
00:31:14,720 --> 00:31:16,800
Speaker 1: with us Michael McKee and Tom King with Scott Brown

520
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 1: and Raymond James Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloombergs Surveillance has brought to

521
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524
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Speaker 1: Remember f D I c equal Housing, Wooding Global business

525
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 1: news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg dot com,

526
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 1: the Radio plus mobile app, and on your radio. This

527
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,440
Speaker 1: is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm kerin Moscow. This

528
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 1: updates brought to you by cbo E VIS Options and Futures.

529
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Speaker 1: Volatility can be harnessed to a cbo E VIS Options

530
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Speaker 1: and futures. See disclosures and learn more at cbo e

531
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:02,160
Speaker 1: dot com. Slash Powerful comes, vix u S stock index

532
00:32:02,200 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 1: futures are higher and indication stocks will trim their first

533
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:09,400
Speaker 1: weekly drop in four, mirroring a global equity rallies. Investors

534
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 1: reassess stimulus measures in Europe. We checked the markets every

535
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: fifteen minutes throughout the trading day on Bloomberg SNP EVENI

536
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: futures of seventeen points, DOWI Mini futures of a hundred thirty,

537
00:32:20,120 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: NASA Docunity futures up forty four decks. In Germany's up

538
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 1: three point one percent, CAC in Paris of three percent,

539
00:32:26,920 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 1: in the FT one hundred one point six percent, ten

540
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 1: Your treasury up one thirty second, the yield one point

541
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,800
Speaker 1: nine two percent. Nim Ex screwed oil up one point

542
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: eight percent. Or sixty nine cents to thirty a fifty

543
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 1: four a barrel. Comacs Gold is down three tenths per

544
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: cent or four dollars thirty cents to twelve sixty eight

545
00:32:42,680 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 1: thirty announced the Euro at dollar eleven twenty three, the

546
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: N one thirteen point six one, and Deutsche Bank, which

547
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 1: runs Europe's biggest investment bank, saying it expects the industry's

548
00:32:52,440 --> 00:32:55,840
Speaker 1: revenue to decline this year as clients consider pulling back

549
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 1: from trading some fixed income securities and refrain from doing deals.

550
00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: That's a Bloomberg business flash, Tom and Mike Karen, thanks

551
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 1: so much on Friday Morning. Futures up twenty yearlier now

552
00:33:07,360 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: as well, it is on Wall Street. The following is

553
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg View. Opinions and commentary from Bloomberg columnists. I'm Repineuru,

554
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,200
Speaker 1: a columnist for Bloomberg View. When a lot of commentators

555
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 1: see in Donald Trump's political assent is reinforcement for their

556
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: own long held views, and they find that reinforcement regardless

557
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: of the evidence. Take the argument that Republicans created the

558
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 1: conditions for Trump's success by teaching their followers to value

559
00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 1: obstruction and hate President Obama. It's a strange theory, since

560
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 1: Trump is the Republican candidate who has given Obama the

561
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 1: most praise and talks the most about making deals, and

562
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: he has lagged among voters who call themselves very conservative,

563
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: the people whom one would expect to be most anti Obama.

564
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:53,240
Speaker 1: In truth, several streams feed Trump's river opposition to the

565
00:33:53,280 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 1: Republican establishment. Economic anxiety and concern about illegal immigration are

566
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,280
Speaker 1: all playing a role, but so is admiration and for

567
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:03,880
Speaker 1: successful businessman. And oversimplified view of Trump's coalition can lead

568
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 1: us to mistake and conclusions. We may take an unfair

569
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 1: and alarming view of millions of our fellow citizens, and

570
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: we may wrongly assume that nothing can be done to

571
00:34:11,680 --> 00:34:15,440
Speaker 1: persuade his supporters to reconsider their votes. I'm entrepreneuru. For

572
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 1: more view, please go to Bloomberg You dot com review

573
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 1: go on the Bloomberg terminal. This has been Bloomberg View

574
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 1: and Bloomberview commentaries camp here in hourly weekdays on Bloomberg Radio.

575
00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 1: Michael Well, we have perhaps seen the last of the

576
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 1: Republican debates for the time being, depending on how turnout

577
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 1: is UH and the vote goes next Tuesday. But before

578
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 1: they ended Brett Mayor spent quite a bit of time

579
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,759
Speaker 1: on stage with the candidates as host of many of

580
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 1: the debates for Fox News and his Fox News Special Report,

581
00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 1: one of the most watched news programs out there, and

582
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 1: you can listen, of course to Fox News Sunday twelve

583
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:56,720
Speaker 1: pm and four pm every Sunday here on Bloomberg Radio.

584
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:03,800
Speaker 1: Brett we saw last night Trump beginning to suggest that

585
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,400
Speaker 1: he might try to move away from some of his

586
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,800
Speaker 1: most extreme positions. UM in the in the in the

587
00:35:11,600 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 1: manner that candidates do once they feel they're the party's nominee.

588
00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 1: But others have raised the question, and this came up

589
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 1: by noaht your debate, whether Donald Trump can or if

590
00:35:22,800 --> 00:35:26,440
Speaker 1: he changes his positions, he loses the support of all

591
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:28,399
Speaker 1: the people who were so far out there in their

592
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:32,160
Speaker 1: anger right to him like a morning I think the

593
00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,799
Speaker 1: unique thing about Donald Trump is that he has used

594
00:35:35,920 --> 00:35:42,200
Speaker 1: flexibility on issues as a benefit. UH in a primary

595
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 1: where at least going in sticking to your guns, UH,

596
00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:50,800
Speaker 1: fighting for principle was the thing that a lot of

597
00:35:50,840 --> 00:35:53,280
Speaker 1: people thought was going to drive the day and hence

598
00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:57,680
Speaker 1: ted Cruz's nomination. UH could have been a possibility right now,

599
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,839
Speaker 1: Donald Trump is in position, uh and really the only

600
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,760
Speaker 1: one in position to get to the majority of delegates

601
00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: without a contested convention. Now he is um. He's been

602
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:15,040
Speaker 1: called the end of the Republican Party. Uh. You're very

603
00:36:15,120 --> 00:36:19,239
Speaker 1: close to people in the party. What what do you think. Well,

604
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: they're they're really um pulling their hair out. They don't

605
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: know exactly what to do. Um. There are some who

606
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:30,120
Speaker 1: think when Donald Trump is the nominee, and there will

607
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 1: be a massive loss to Hillary Clinton and the party

608
00:36:34,239 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: will restructure itself. There are others who think that he

609
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 1: is a candidate who is unique unto himself, and he

610
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 1: will compete in states that other Republicans would not and

611
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 1: think that he has a shot against Hillary Clinton. UM.

612
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 1: I think those are the optimistic of the budge within this.

613
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 1: In Vox yesterday, I'm searching for the bar chart right now,

614
00:36:57,920 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 1: Bret ver But Vox put out a terrific chart going

615
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 1: back a good thirty years of the summation of negative

616
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,520
Speaker 1: and positive tone on each of the major candidates. And

617
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 1: it's really everybody else, And there's nuances Romney Clinton back

618
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:16,200
Speaker 1: to Bob Dole, etcetera. And then there's uniquely the negative

619
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: perception of Mr Trump. How does he shift that and win?

620
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 1: It's got to happen soon. I think last night was

621
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 1: part of it. Uh, Tom, I think you know this

622
00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:33,320
Speaker 1: kind of quiet uh, not jumping down people's throats, not

623
00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:37,600
Speaker 1: counterpunching right away. Um. A tone and tenor of that

624
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:41,560
Speaker 1: debate was an example of him shifting. UM. But you're right,

625
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 1: his negatives are up at above I mean, folks, they're

626
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 1: a jump condition over everybody else we've grown up with. Now,

627
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 1: I will say that Hillary Clinton's negatives are are pretty

628
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:56,399
Speaker 1: high to um. But much like Mitt Romney went into

629
00:37:56,520 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 1: that election, UM with Romney Care unable to fight the

630
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:04,880
Speaker 1: battle against Obamacare really effectively. There are some who are

631
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,479
Speaker 1: concerned that because of honest and trustworthy numbers, Donald Trump

632
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 1: essentially is is neutered in the same way. And now

633
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,280
Speaker 1: folks should go to Bloomberg Surveillance news breaking how Speaker

634
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:17,359
Speaker 1: Paul Ryan and his council has sent his cease into

635
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:20,919
Speaker 1: this this letter to Brett Bear over the draft Ryan

636
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 1: group because Brett Bear needs more ratings. Come on, this

637
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:26,960
Speaker 1: is off your block? Are you kidding me? Now? They're

638
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 1: gonna get Speaker Ryan into this? Yeah? Well, I listen,

639
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 1: they there are these groups that are imagining this person

640
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 1: on a white horse coming into the convention in Cleveland

641
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:41,120
Speaker 1: and saving the day. Uh, it's just not going to happen. Right,

642
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,600
Speaker 1: you can get the Florida vote if you're running. You

643
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 1: never know, talk, I gotta I gotta quickly ask you

644
00:38:50,080 --> 00:38:52,719
Speaker 1: about the other side of the political coin. On the

645
00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: Democratic side, Um, Brennie Sanders making a race of it.

646
00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 1: But Hillary Clinton, that you know, the delicate math is

647
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,960
Speaker 1: is pretty overwhelming. Somebody asked me last night after watching

648
00:39:02,040 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: the Democratic debate and then watching the Republican debate and

649
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 1: watching Donald Trump debate. Um, he has no policies and

650
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 1: he basically just says, we need a good deal, uh

651
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 1: to everything. Uh how will Hillary Clinton do in a

652
00:39:16,360 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 1: debate against Donald Trump? He dominates the other people who

653
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 1: are on the stage on the Republican side. Will it

654
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,880
Speaker 1: be different with her? Yeah, I mean that's really fascinating.

655
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,279
Speaker 1: I mean she is a policy want and he is

656
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: very comfortable into the details. He is not comfortable there,

657
00:39:32,560 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 1: but he is comfortable, Uh, you know, saying things that

658
00:39:36,480 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 1: fet that people say. Okay, let's give him a shot.

659
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,760
Speaker 1: I think he's riding a wave of anger against Washington

660
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:45,240
Speaker 1: that says, forget it, kick the table over, let's start.

661
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:48,960
Speaker 1: Somebody's gonna shake it up. She is clearly establishment, so

662
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: that that will be quite a battle. Brett there, It's

663
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 1: gonna be a fascinating battle to follow with you here

664
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio, and you can listen to Churse to

665
00:39:57,640 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 1: Fox News Sunday. The left of the right simply say

666
00:40:02,719 --> 00:40:06,560
Speaker 1: that he in some slash all of his cohorts have

667
00:40:06,640 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 1: done a great job at Fox. Yeah. Full disclosure special

668
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:13,720
Speaker 1: report Um Scott Brown is still with us. From Raymond James,

669
00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:16,800
Speaker 1: uh and Scott. This sort of leads into a question

670
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: I wanted to put to you as the economic representative

671
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:23,239
Speaker 1: on the program here now. Walster Journal has a very

672
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:29,839
Speaker 1: interesting survey out today UH suggesting that three more than

673
00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 1: three quarters of the forecasters in their latest survey they

674
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,400
Speaker 1: survey economists around the country and all kinds of jobs,

675
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:43,240
Speaker 1: say the presidential election has introduced more uncertainty than is typical,

676
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:49,080
Speaker 1: and about two thirds of them say that if no

677
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 1: four fifths of the economists say that if you were

678
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: elected Mr Sanders or Mr Trump, they would have to

679
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:59,280
Speaker 1: lower their economic forecasts, that there would be an economic

680
00:40:59,400 --> 00:41:03,319
Speaker 1: negative for a country. Yeah, It's hard to say for sure,

681
00:41:03,440 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 1: particularly you know if you look at Trump's proposals, because

682
00:41:06,520 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 1: there's really not a lot there there there are no details.

683
00:41:10,480 --> 00:41:13,480
Speaker 1: But you know, when he talks about tearing up trade deals,

684
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 1: I mean that is a huge deal. I mean, these

685
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:18,879
Speaker 1: things are designed so that you're not able to back

686
00:41:18,960 --> 00:41:21,440
Speaker 1: away from him. Uh. Tearing them up means that you're

687
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 1: going to set off this chain reaction, which is not

688
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: going to be good for the global economy. Um. Now

689
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,080
Speaker 1: what push comes to shob I think you know he

690
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: if Trump wins the nomination, you're going to get the

691
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 1: established ment Republicans coming in and trying to kiss and

692
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:37,919
Speaker 1: make up and he, you know, the new president will

693
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: have to deal with Congress and the president that you

694
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:43,600
Speaker 1: know is never gonna get everything that he wants in

695
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,279
Speaker 1: his administration. I mean, you look at the Obama administration

696
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 1: and you know, you've you've got the stalemate presumably with

697
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 1: the Republican in the White House, Republican in both chambers

698
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:57,840
Speaker 1: of Congress. Uh, then some things can get done. You know,

699
00:41:57,920 --> 00:42:00,279
Speaker 1: you look at the Bush administration and we had you know,

700
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:03,799
Speaker 1: two unfunded wars to you know, a prescription drug plan

701
00:42:03,880 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 1: that wasn't paid for UM, so you need you need

702
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: to be careful. I mean, the stalemate, you know, kind

703
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:13,160
Speaker 1: of works if you remember during the Clinton administration. You know,

704
00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: the Republicans didn't get their big tax cuts, the Democrats

705
00:42:15,719 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 1: didn't get their big spending programs, and you ended up

706
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:19,920
Speaker 1: with a budget surplus at the end of it. But

707
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 1: at this point, I think things have to come together,

708
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:26,440
Speaker 1: but you're not really seeing much working together on Capitol

709
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:29,360
Speaker 1: and Scott, thank you so much. Scott Brown with Raymond

710
00:42:29,440 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: James uh with us this morning. We'll have you on

711
00:42:31,840 --> 00:42:35,200
Speaker 1: for a longer period here in the near future. Very

712
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 1: very interesting on the ramifications on the U. S economy

713
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 1: of where we are, lower GDP growth and a bit,

714
00:42:43,200 --> 00:42:46,360
Speaker 1: just a bit of inflation. Another hour this Friday of

715
00:42:46,400 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's surveillance