1 00:00:03,600 --> 00:00:05,720 Speaker 1: Welcome back to a numbers game with Brian Groski. Thank 2 00:00:05,760 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: you guys for being here. Happy Thursday. Remember how I 3 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:11,840 Speaker 1: mentioned to you in my last episode that we're coming 4 00:00:11,840 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: at the end of the year, so Spotify and Apple 5 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:15,800 Speaker 1: Playlist where it's going to put their end of the 6 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: year numbers. Well I said that on Monday and came 7 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: out on Wednesday that they said your number one podcast 8 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:25,160 Speaker 1: and song and singer and all of us artists were 9 00:00:25,640 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: and they had interesting Spotify had an interesting thing this 10 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,360 Speaker 1: year they've never done before was they guessed your age 11 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: by what music you listen to. They guess my age 12 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: was sixty eight years old. I am. I am not hip. 13 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 1: I guess like I am I am. I guess I 14 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:45,599 Speaker 1: need to diversify. There's a lot of classic rock on 15 00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,960 Speaker 1: my playlist from Ozzy Osbourne and Linda Ronstant and Fleetwood 16 00:00:49,000 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 1: Mac and the Carpenters and Bruce Springsteen. Like, there's a 17 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 1: lot of that going on. I might need to like 18 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 1: just spruce it up with some Taylor Swift or Sabrina Carpenters. 19 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:59,320 Speaker 1: I don't know, but sixty eight was kind of rough 20 00:00:59,600 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: to get Social Security numbers thrown at you. That that's 21 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 1: where you're a that's where your mind is. So I 22 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 1: thought it was funny. Hopefully my podcast came into your 23 00:01:08,520 --> 00:01:11,680 Speaker 1: top five list. If it hasn't, please like and subscribe 24 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,520 Speaker 1: to this podcast and the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, 25 00:01:15,560 --> 00:01:17,760 Speaker 1: wherever you get this podcast. I love to be your 26 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 1: top five. Come next year, we have a lot of 27 00:01:20,240 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: great end of the year episodes. I'm so excited with 28 00:01:23,080 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 1: a big announcement coming next year at the the end 29 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: of this month rather and the game next year big announcement. 30 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,479 Speaker 1: But we have a lot of fun episodes. Because it's December, 31 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: there's only so much politics people can really sit there 32 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: and take. So we're gonna do a lot of politics. 33 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,360 Speaker 1: But we have an episode with a priest right around 34 00:01:38,440 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: Christmas time, my priest actually, so that'll be a fun, 35 00:01:41,640 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: interesting conversation. We'll have one of my consultant friends who 36 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 1: are gonna come on to talk about what it's like 37 00:01:45,920 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: to run a campaign, to be part of a campaign, 38 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: what it's like to win. We have questions from the 39 00:01:50,640 --> 00:01:52,760 Speaker 1: audience that we're going to ask for them, and also 40 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:54,800 Speaker 1: I'm gonna have this is so great, so accept this. 41 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 1: I have a lot of not a lot. I have 42 00:01:57,520 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 1: a few gen Z employees. I think I have like 43 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 1: seven ENZ employees. So I'm actually going to hold a 44 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 1: contest on this podcast with three of them. I'm going 45 00:02:05,760 --> 00:02:09,040 Speaker 1: to offer them cash to quiz them about millennial and 46 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:12,320 Speaker 1: gen X culture and to see if who can get 47 00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 1: it right. And it's going to be great. I'm so 48 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: excited for it. Let the public roasting begin. They know 49 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 1: what they're involved with like this, so it's on me 50 00:02:20,280 --> 00:02:22,320 Speaker 1: too hard. It's going to be very basic stuff, but 51 00:02:22,800 --> 00:02:25,440 Speaker 1: I'm very much looking forward to seeing how much they 52 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:28,880 Speaker 1: know about the world that you know, existed before streaming. 53 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,919 Speaker 1: So I'm very very excited. Anyway, let's talk about politics 54 00:02:31,919 --> 00:02:34,200 Speaker 1: for a second. There was a special election in the 55 00:02:34,240 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 1: Tennessee seventh Congressional district where Republican Matthew Van Epps won 56 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,919 Speaker 1: by a nine point margin against Democrat often Ben I 57 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 1: think is how prognis her name. She's a little bit crazy. Anyway, 58 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:48,560 Speaker 1: he won fifty four to forty five. So congratulations to 59 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,840 Speaker 1: the future Congressman Matt Van Apps. Now it was a 60 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,560 Speaker 1: solid victory. Nine points is a decent margin, but remember 61 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,840 Speaker 1: it's a district that Trump won by twenty two points. 62 00:02:58,919 --> 00:03:01,120 Speaker 1: Last November not a great place where you want to 63 00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: be for Republicans in this one special election, but it 64 00:03:04,280 --> 00:03:06,600 Speaker 1: also is not where you want to be when you 65 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 1: look at the overall change that's been happening in all 66 00:03:10,800 --> 00:03:13,520 Speaker 1: these special elections throughout this year. This was just a 67 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: thirteen point swing towards the Democrats, but it spells what's 68 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 1: coming up in the future and what's been going on 69 00:03:19,639 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: the pass and where voter sentiment is. Now here's the 70 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:26,880 Speaker 1: thing of why now normally, listen, you shouldn't put too 71 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,080 Speaker 1: much emphasis in any one special election. This election was 72 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: different because it had a mid term turnout. In twenty 73 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: twenty two Congress and Mark Green, the Republican, won his 74 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: seat by twenty two points. It was one hundred and 75 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: eighty eight hundred and twenty two votes. In this election, 76 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:47,400 Speaker 1: where Matthew Van Epps won by nine points, there was 77 00:03:47,440 --> 00:03:50,680 Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy nine eight hundred and ninety nine votes, 78 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,960 Speaker 1: almost basically a one thousand z difference. It was a 79 00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:57,560 Speaker 1: mid term turnout for a special election. The Democrat candidate, 80 00:03:57,600 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: who was very far left, received eighty one thousand votes, 81 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 1: that's sixty six percent of all the votes. Kamala Harris won, 82 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 1: while Van EPP's got about forty nine to forty eight 83 00:04:09,000 --> 00:04:11,320 Speaker 1: percent of all the votes that Trump received in the district. 84 00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 1: Not great, and it's just not a turnout thing. Turnout 85 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 1: is very very high for Democrats. Right, Democrats are super engaged, 86 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 1: but there's clearly movement among independent voters who are very 87 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 1: worried about the economy and dealing with the aftermaths of 88 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:30,360 Speaker 1: Biden's inflation. It is like, you know that smell that's 89 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:32,720 Speaker 1: lingering after a couple of days of having food left 90 00:04:32,720 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: out or spoil milk, like it's it's I think voters 91 00:04:36,920 --> 00:04:40,120 Speaker 1: really believe Trump was going to reduce overall prices, not 92 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,360 Speaker 1: just slow inflation down, which he has been successful at, 93 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 1: but reduce prices and go to maybe a deflationary period 94 00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:49,120 Speaker 1: for a little while. That clearly hasn't happened. The job 95 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 1: market is very worrisome for young people. We've had tons 96 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: of episodes about this kind of content. Now, there have 97 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 1: been sixty two special elections in the last year, both 98 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 1: for state house states, Senate and Congress, right state legislative 99 00:05:02,080 --> 00:05:06,240 Speaker 1: and Congression, and Democrats have overperformed in twenty twenty four 100 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:10,080 Speaker 1: to sixty two special elections by an average of eleven points. 101 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: That is historic by any single party in recent history. Right, 102 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:18,160 Speaker 1: that is a lot, and no amount of mid decade 103 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: jerrymandering is going to fix it unless I guess if 104 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:26,520 Speaker 1: the VRA Section twelve is over Section two Rothers overturned, 105 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 1: and we have states like Georgia and Alabama, Mississippi all 106 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: jumping in in Florida Redistrict, all their states unless that happens, 107 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,640 Speaker 1: And I still think even if that happens, it's not 108 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 1: enough to sit there and stop a Democratic way from 109 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: taking the House. I didn't think it was going to 110 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,560 Speaker 1: be this extreme. A couple like a couple of weeks ago, 111 00:05:45,520 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 1: were in a couple of months ago. But I looked 112 00:05:47,680 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 1: at the twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen special elections and 113 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: Democrats that year, and that gigantic wave only led in 114 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: specials by six points. Remember right now, it's by eleven points. 115 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 1: If the midterm election were to happen today, it is 116 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 1: almost guaranteed that Democrats will perform at nearly the same percentage, 117 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:10,480 Speaker 1: if not greater, than they received performed in twenty eighteen. 118 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,799 Speaker 1: The good thing for Republicans is that the election isn't tomorrow, 119 00:06:13,920 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: and things can change. And let me make a point 120 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 1: about the recent past year. Twenty twenty three, there were 121 00:06:19,040 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: dozens of special elections for both state legislature and Congress, 122 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:26,720 Speaker 1: and Democrats overperformed by almost four points, right, four points 123 00:06:26,720 --> 00:06:28,400 Speaker 1: from where they had performed in twenty twenty, which was 124 00:06:28,440 --> 00:06:31,839 Speaker 1: already a very good year for Democrats. The following year, 125 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four, there were also dozens of special 126 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: elections ahead of the presidential election, and Republicans outperform their 127 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,599 Speaker 1: performance in twenty twenty by two points, So there was 128 00:06:41,600 --> 00:06:46,200 Speaker 1: a six point swing between just one year in favor 129 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:49,240 Speaker 1: of Republicans ahead of the presidential election, a five to 130 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 1: six point swing. If it happened next year ahead of 131 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:56,039 Speaker 1: the midterms, it wouldn't be enough to save the House Republicans, 132 00:06:56,279 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: but it would definitely move off Democrat from winning seats 133 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:04,440 Speaker 1: that are just lean Republican or seats that Trump won 134 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,920 Speaker 1: by eight or nine points and maybe not why twenty 135 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:10,240 Speaker 1: points right, It wouldn't be as bad. They wouldn't have 136 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 1: to sit there and defend as many seats. If this 137 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,520 Speaker 1: swing starts coming into next year, we will have to 138 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,480 Speaker 1: sit there and see Republicans have been very effective at 139 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: jerrymandering as well. This is something that this race really 140 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 1: put me in touch with, is just how effective now 141 00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:28,680 Speaker 1: in the Tennessee seven race, which was part of Nashville 142 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:31,280 Speaker 1: and then a lot of exerb suburbs and rural communities, 143 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 1: the average the parts of Nashville right Nashville went sixty 144 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: one points for the Democrats. Nashville itself swung twenty points 145 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: more from where it was in twenty twenty four. The 146 00:07:43,080 --> 00:07:46,880 Speaker 1: rural and exerb and suburb areas swung a little less 147 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:52,160 Speaker 1: than ten points. So there's clearly heavy concentration and energy 148 00:07:52,240 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: among Democrats in Democratic strongholds, which means which means you'll see, 149 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:01,560 Speaker 1: you know, in a state like New York or New Jersey, 150 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,120 Speaker 1: places that are super democratic having crazy heigh turn affecting 151 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: state wide elections, but not necessarily changing the course of 152 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: some swing districts or some lean Republican districts who are 153 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: mostly comprised of the exerpts and suburbs. I think that 154 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:18,960 Speaker 1: because the jerrymannering has been so effective in places like 155 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: North Carolina, in Texas, in Florida, I don't think Republicans 156 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: are going to be dealing with that big of a 157 00:08:26,320 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 1: calamity where they're going to see Trump plus ten seats flipping. 158 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:31,640 Speaker 1: I just don't. I don't see. I think that's in 159 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: the cars. I think that this is you know, where 160 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:36,800 Speaker 1: we're looking at. What seats are in danger is district 161 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 1: that Trump won by five point six points. Those kinds 162 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:41,959 Speaker 1: of seats, which is still quite a few, right, and 163 00:08:42,040 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: you're gonna have to really depend on Republican congressmen having 164 00:08:45,040 --> 00:08:48,200 Speaker 1: deep loyalties into those seats and into those districts and 165 00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 1: into those areas they've been in for hopefully a long 166 00:08:50,559 --> 00:08:53,440 Speaker 1: time they've been working their constituents. I think that's a 167 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: really really important part. Now. Part of the reason I 168 00:08:56,040 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 1: believe that this has happened that those seats will be 169 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:03,480 Speaker 1: protected is not just from this one special in Virginia 170 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 1: in the state legislative during the governors races, Republicans won 171 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: every seat of Trump one by more than ten points. 172 00:09:10,800 --> 00:09:13,240 Speaker 1: So if they were fine in Virginia, which was a 173 00:09:13,400 --> 00:09:17,319 Speaker 1: catastrophic turnout for Republicans, I think they'll be fine nationwide. 174 00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,720 Speaker 1: That's what I think. I know many people are sitting 175 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 1: there and saying, what, so, what does an icy look 176 00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 1: like what would change what's going to happen. I have 177 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 1: spent time sitting there and breaking down the map as 178 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,920 Speaker 1: I see what happen. If next year looks a lot 179 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 1: like twenty eighteen, that's going to come up. So there's 180 00:09:35,679 --> 00:09:38,800 Speaker 1: no definition of what a wave election is like. It's 181 00:09:38,800 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: not like if you do this percentage or that percentage 182 00:09:41,240 --> 00:09:43,079 Speaker 1: or this many seats is considered a wave. It's very 183 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:45,719 Speaker 1: subjective to really what people said there and insists is 184 00:09:45,760 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: a wave. In my opinion, you have to win about 185 00:09:49,280 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 1: two dozen seats or more for it to considered a wave. Right. 186 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: I don't think winning nine seats is a wave election. 187 00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: I think winning twenty to sixty seats is a way election. Right. 188 00:09:59,120 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 1: And since the last two decades, there have been four 189 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: wave elections two thousand and six, two thousand and eight, 190 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: twenty ten, and twenty eighteen. In those elections, Democrats had 191 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: three waves in two thousand and six, two eight, twenty eighteen. 192 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,920 Speaker 1: Republicans had won in twenty ten in the Republican waver year. 193 00:10:16,920 --> 00:10:20,960 Speaker 1: In two thy ten, Republicans netted sixty three House seats, 194 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: which is absurdly high. Right, some doesn't happen in the 195 00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,680 Speaker 1: subsequent House elections in twenty eighteen, Democrats won about forty seats, 196 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:31,719 Speaker 1: and in two thousand and six, in two thousand and 197 00:10:31,760 --> 00:10:34,120 Speaker 1: eight they won I think twenty one and twenty five. 198 00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 1: So they want to combine about forty seven forty eight seats. 199 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:42,160 Speaker 1: Those types of elections where can its win or parties 200 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,280 Speaker 1: rather win dozens of seats thirty forty, fifty sixty are 201 00:10:46,280 --> 00:10:49,440 Speaker 1: becoming increasingly rare, which is why you saw them clustered 202 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:51,839 Speaker 1: together in two thousand and six, two thousand and twenty ten, 203 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 1: and then it takes another decade for it to even 204 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: really happen again. Part of the reason it was able 205 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,560 Speaker 1: to happen again was because when Donald Trump showed up 206 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 1: on the scene, turnout in midterms spiked through the roof 207 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: and they've been spiking through the roof ever since. Midterms 208 00:11:06,200 --> 00:11:09,000 Speaker 1: used to have like thirty five percent turnout from where 209 00:11:09,000 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: they were in the presidential elections, and now they're closer 210 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 1: towards fifty to fifty five percent, and in some states 211 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 1: north of fifty five percent. There's also been a settling 212 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: as terms of realignments. Now there are still some realignments 213 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 1: happening in twenty twenty four, so Trump's surgeon with Hispanic voters, 214 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: and they were very concentrated in very very blue areas, 215 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: which didn't result in many seats flipping, but they got 216 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 1: a lot closer In twenty ten southern seats right, you 217 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:40,480 Speaker 1: may not even remember this, most of Arkansas had a 218 00:11:40,520 --> 00:11:43,560 Speaker 1: Democratic congressman. Three out of the four seats was Democratic congressmen. 219 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 1: States like Tennessee had tons of Democratic congressmen. Mississippi had 220 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 1: three of their fourth seats were Democratic congressmen. Alabama had more, 221 00:11:52,920 --> 00:11:56,560 Speaker 1: Georgia had more. Texas had tons are not tons, but 222 00:11:56,600 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 1: they had a handful of white, southern, middle cent rural 223 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:06,400 Speaker 1: Democrats that represented those areas. That was very normal for 224 00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:10,680 Speaker 1: decades until finally those voters who had voted for Ronald 225 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,920 Speaker 1: Reagan and Richard Nixon and George W. Bush finally said, 226 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,240 Speaker 1: you know what, why do I have a Democratic congressman? 227 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 1: Tickets splitting really slowed down immensely, and Republicans made gigantic 228 00:12:20,720 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: gains throughout the entire Prairie states, throughout the Midwest, and 229 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:28,439 Speaker 1: throughout the South. Likewise, in six and oh eight, Democrats 230 00:12:28,640 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 1: they gained seats in Connecticut, where Republicans used to have 231 00:12:31,480 --> 00:12:34,520 Speaker 1: three seats they gained seats in New Hampshire, and in Maine, 232 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 1: they gained seats in areas that you would have thought 233 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:39,200 Speaker 1: I didn't know there were Republicans there as recently as 234 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: two thousand and six, two thousand and eight, as well 235 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: as seats in northern California where Republicans still tolled, seats 236 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 1: like in the suburbs not too far away from San Francisco, 237 00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:51,440 Speaker 1: not directly San Francisco, but more like towards Sacramento. But 238 00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: those areas had Republican commissions that don't exist anymore. So 239 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: that kind of settling has already happened. And I think 240 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 1: that because that that has already happened, it is unlikely 241 00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 1: to happen again, which is why I said, we're not 242 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 1: going to see an effect where you know, Republicans lose, 243 00:13:08,440 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: you know, Montana or Wyoming. You know, that's just it's 244 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 1: not really in the cars. And because there are not 245 00:13:15,200 --> 00:13:19,320 Speaker 1: any Republicans in Connecticut, or any Republicans in Rhode Island 246 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:23,840 Speaker 1: or other deep blue areas, there's limitations to how much 247 00:13:23,880 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: their games can really manifest in these house elections. So 248 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 1: I played a game for you know this podcast where 249 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,320 Speaker 1: I souther there and said, what would a election like 250 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 1: twenty ten if it happened for Republicans look like in 251 00:13:36,960 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: terms of turnout and victories? What would it look like 252 00:13:39,720 --> 00:13:42,240 Speaker 1: for Democrats if it was twenty eighteen? Because two thousand 253 00:13:42,240 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 1: and six, two six, eight ten, and twenty eighteen had 254 00:13:46,920 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 1: about the same exact margin, right, it was very very 255 00:13:50,400 --> 00:13:52,719 Speaker 1: close in favor of both Republicans and Democrats. It was 256 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,680 Speaker 1: about eight points. So what would happen if Democrats won 257 00:13:56,960 --> 00:13:59,280 Speaker 1: the election by eight points? How many seats can they 258 00:13:59,320 --> 00:14:02,280 Speaker 1: possibly gain? What would happen for Republicans if they had 259 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 1: won an election by eight points? I think because of 260 00:14:05,960 --> 00:14:10,080 Speaker 1: how both Jerry mannered some Republicans states are, like Texas, 261 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:16,280 Speaker 1: like North Carolina, there are serious limitations to Republicans democratic gains. 262 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: I think if the election my prediction and the map 263 00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:21,160 Speaker 1: is on the YouTube page. If you're listening to this, 264 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: you can turn on YouTube and I will show you 265 00:14:23,040 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 1: what I think the map would look like. If the 266 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:27,600 Speaker 1: election were held and it was a Democrat plus eight year, 267 00:14:27,640 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: I think Democrats would win about two one hundred and 268 00:14:29,960 --> 00:14:33,800 Speaker 1: thirty seats to Republicans two hundred and four seats. Their 269 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: gains would come in a lot of Midwestern places like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, 270 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:42,840 Speaker 1: they would all see Democrat gains. Likewise, they'd also see gaines. 271 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,040 Speaker 1: We're going to get gains because of California because of 272 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,400 Speaker 1: jerry mandering. But you'll see gains in New York definitely. 273 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: In Pennsylvania, day would see some gains, and those in Virginia. 274 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:54,600 Speaker 1: Virginia is another area I think Democrats have the right 275 00:14:54,680 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: option of making gains. Florida. The only seat that I 276 00:14:57,600 --> 00:14:59,720 Speaker 1: could think of them even coming close to is Anelina 277 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 1: pulled Anna Paulina Luna. That's her name. Sorry, no offends 278 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,360 Speaker 1: to Congressman Anna Polina Luna, but that is the only 279 00:15:08,400 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: seat that I could see with them and say, if 280 00:15:09,760 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: they have a phenomenal year and an incredible election turnout, 281 00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: that I would say she could be in trouble, but 282 00:15:15,640 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 1: probably not even her. I put her as a possible 283 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: Democrat pickup if it was an incredible year, but she's 284 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,200 Speaker 1: really the only one from from from Florida. Texas. I 285 00:15:24,240 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: don't see them winning any Republican members of Texas, no 286 00:15:27,160 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: matter what how they're licking their chops and saying they 287 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 1: over Jerrymanner. I just don't see how that's possible. Arizona 288 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,440 Speaker 1: would have a few Democratic congressman pickups, and Democrats would 289 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 1: protect their uncumbents. Comments In most seats, there could be 290 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: one or two surprises. Someone gets indicted, somebody you know 291 00:15:41,920 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: gets sick, or somebody says something on the campaign trail 292 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:46,600 Speaker 1: that affects them. I can't count for that, but if 293 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,920 Speaker 1: that happened, certainly those changes would happen. The most interesting 294 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: thing is if it was a Republican plus eight year, 295 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 1: Republicans would have the chance to pick up a fifty 296 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 1: three seats. Now you're like, Ryan, that is so crazy, 297 00:15:58,520 --> 00:16:01,080 Speaker 1: that's not possible. That's even more than the Tea Party wave. 298 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: Here's why I think it is. I think Republicans would 299 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 1: one hold onto the older incumbents and they would make 300 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: gains in specifically Hispanic districts that they were definitely we're 301 00:16:15,000 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 1: gonna get to a Trump Republican plus eighty year, make 302 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:20,160 Speaker 1: gains in Hispanic districts that Trump did very well and 303 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,960 Speaker 1: exceed those numbers. Remember Trump one by two, so it 304 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: would be an excess of six more. You would see 305 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: some jerrymandering on the Democratic side, which would over over, 306 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 1: which wouldn't do enough to protect them. Right, So like Nevada. 307 00:16:33,760 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 1: Nevada is a perfect example. Nevada has four seats, three 308 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: of them are jerrymannered to protect Democrats, and Republicans came 309 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:43,520 Speaker 1: close to pick the two of those four seats last term. 310 00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:46,440 Speaker 1: If it was a Trump a Republican plus eight year, 311 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: all three of those seats would swing Republican. Likewise, Orgon 312 00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:52,400 Speaker 1: would probably lose two of their Democratic seats because they've 313 00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: just jerrymandered a little too much and spread them outselves 314 00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: a little too thin. That's where I would see Republicans 315 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 1: make those gains to get us as a high number, 316 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,440 Speaker 1: because I don't think that Democrats did enough to I 317 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: think that Democrats took for granted that certain populations could 318 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,480 Speaker 1: never move, and twenty twenty four obviously proof that they 319 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 1: are moving. So that's where I have that estimate from. 320 00:17:12,880 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 1: If it was a tea party like wave fifty three 321 00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:17,960 Speaker 1: seats for Republicans, and I think it's a twenty eighteen year, 322 00:17:18,119 --> 00:17:20,360 Speaker 1: it's about two hundred and thirty one seats for Democrats. 323 00:17:20,440 --> 00:17:23,080 Speaker 1: Majorities are both parties. But I think that Democrats have 324 00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:24,919 Speaker 1: a lot less to work with than I think that 325 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:28,080 Speaker 1: they that they used to and I don't foresee a 326 00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:31,760 Speaker 1: Tea Party style sixty seat wave, even in a great year, 327 00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:36,040 Speaker 1: kind of happening again for the foreseeable future. And for Democrats, 328 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,399 Speaker 1: I think they're kind of stuck in a position where 329 00:17:38,560 --> 00:17:41,720 Speaker 1: they're maybe looking at twenty seats if it's an incredible year, 330 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:43,760 Speaker 1: but they're not going to get to where they USU, 331 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:47,199 Speaker 1: which is forty seats. Anyway, I think it's fascinating and 332 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: I think that's really where we're where we're looking at 333 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:54,920 Speaker 1: limitations and why there's such heavy concentration going into next 334 00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,640 Speaker 1: year on certain House seats because there's fewer and fewer 335 00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 1: which are swing seats voting, you know, fewer tickets splitting 336 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: and less swing seats. And I think that they'll be 337 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 1: immense concentration effort in just a few dozen and then 338 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,960 Speaker 1: the other three three, four hundred, it will be in 339 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:14,600 Speaker 1: the bag one way or the other day. Everyone can, 340 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: you know, spend the night, you know, hanging out and 341 00:18:17,520 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 1: not worrying about the election, maybe for state wide elections, 342 00:18:20,480 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 1: but not necessarily these independent House seats. All right, Next 343 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 1: up is Ask Me Anything. Stay tuned now, it's time 344 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:31,520 Speaker 1: for the ask Me Anything segment. If you want to 345 00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:33,840 Speaker 1: be part of the Ask Me Anything segment. Email me 346 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 1: Ryan at Numbers Game podcast dot com. That's Ryan at 347 00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,919 Speaker 1: Numbers Plural Numbers Game Podcasts dot Com. Love getting these questions. 348 00:18:39,920 --> 00:18:41,680 Speaker 1: I answer them every episode. I get to all your 349 00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,159 Speaker 1: questions either privately through email or I answer them on 350 00:18:44,160 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 1: the show. So here's the first one comes from Jeffrey Dean. 351 00:18:47,560 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 1: He writes, Ryan, thank you for your great episode with 352 00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,199 Speaker 1: John from Breitbart. Are you familiar with the concept of 353 00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 1: social inflation. It's a big driver of insurance increases you 354 00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,440 Speaker 1: reference in the episode. Several states are looking to mitigate 355 00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:02,199 Speaker 1: the nuclear verdicts driving the situation. South Carolina has some 356 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:06,639 Speaker 1: good examples involving restaurants and liquor liability. Very interesting, with 357 00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:08,760 Speaker 1: more needing to be done. Keep up the great work, 358 00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:11,639 Speaker 1: Jeff Okay, I did not know about social inflation before 359 00:19:11,680 --> 00:19:14,119 Speaker 1: this email. I looked up. Social inflation refers to the 360 00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 1: increased in claim severity above what could be anticipated under 361 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 1: the usual scope of economic inflation and claims trends. This 362 00:19:22,680 --> 00:19:24,919 Speaker 1: is from a website. This is from an insurance website. 363 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: Here are four factors fueling social inflation. One is desensitization 364 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:32,040 Speaker 1: to a large verdicts and media impact. Second is negative 365 00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:36,119 Speaker 1: public sentiment towards corporate accountability. Thirty is erosion of tort reform. 366 00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,040 Speaker 1: And the last and I didn't even think of this 367 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:44,160 Speaker 1: attorney tactics of litigation funding. Basically attorneys, ambulance, chaser attorneys. 368 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,160 Speaker 1: They're spending over a billion dollars a year on advertising 369 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: and targeting certain areas, certain venues for lawsuits, areas they 370 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:54,879 Speaker 1: think they can win a lot of money, which is 371 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:59,640 Speaker 1: causing insurance overall to spike in several parts of our country. 372 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,959 Speaker 1: They think they can get this because that's that's their business. 373 00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,040 Speaker 1: It's causing all of our rates to go up. I 374 00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: did not know about the social inflation. I'm going to 375 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 1: look deeper into this and when I'm talking about it, 376 00:20:09,520 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: but Jeff really really enlightening, So thank you for that. 377 00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:16,880 Speaker 1: Next question comes from Andrew Zimmerman. He writes, is there 378 00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 1: any data to suggest abortion was a strong motivating factor 379 00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,439 Speaker 1: for Democrats in the twenty twenty five election or was 380 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:24,840 Speaker 1: it just a subset among costs of living and shut 381 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:28,560 Speaker 1: down for federal workforce issues in Virginia the only state 382 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:31,440 Speaker 1: wide election we've had since overturning Roe V. WAD was 383 00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three I, which, according to Public Access Project 384 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:37,240 Speaker 1: only at thirty nine percent turnout and only gave Democrats 385 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,359 Speaker 1: a slight majority in the House Delegates. I live in 386 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,720 Speaker 1: District seventy five, a Richmond metro suburb district that does 387 00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:44,720 Speaker 1: include the city of Hope. Well, it's swung from R 388 00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 1: plus six and twenty twenty three to D plus five 389 00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:50,320 Speaker 1: deplus six and twenty twenty five. Okay, so I looked 390 00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:53,960 Speaker 1: this up. I looked up several different both expert analysis 391 00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 1: and exit polling and cross tabs, and abortion never made 392 00:20:58,240 --> 00:20:59,960 Speaker 1: it as a top issue in anywhere that I was 393 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 1: able to pull data from about sixty percent of Virginian 394 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 1: support access to abortion in most or all circumstances. Thirty 395 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,479 Speaker 1: five percent would be pro life, wanting it and wanting 396 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: you know, the restrict abortion in most in all circumstances, 397 00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:15,760 Speaker 1: which is kind of where I thought it would be. 398 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:17,680 Speaker 1: Maybe it's a little higher, but it could also be 399 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:21,479 Speaker 1: higher because Democrat turnout was higher. The interesting thing was 400 00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:26,160 Speaker 1: that more pro choice voters voted Republican for governor than 401 00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:29,480 Speaker 1: pro life voters voted for the Democrat, according to seeing 402 00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:33,000 Speaker 1: an exepul seventeen percent of pro choice voters in Virginia 403 00:21:33,119 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 1: voted for Wins and Sars, while only eleven percent of 404 00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:39,840 Speaker 1: pro lifers voted for Spamberg. So I mean, that's interesting. 405 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: But no, I don't think that it was enough of 406 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 1: a driver. I mean, I'm sure there are some people 407 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:45,280 Speaker 1: that it was, you know, a big issue for like 408 00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:47,880 Speaker 1: abortion is always a big issue for some people. I 409 00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: think that predominantly, though, it was cost of living, government 410 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,480 Speaker 1: shut down and just hating Trump and excessive democratic turnout. 411 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:56,639 Speaker 1: I mean I looked, I looked really hard for it. 412 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: I couldn't find it. So but hey, there's always another 413 00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:01,800 Speaker 1: like in two years, so hopefully your area will swing 414 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,879 Speaker 1: back towards Republicans. That's it for this episode. Thank you 415 00:22:04,880 --> 00:22:07,439 Speaker 1: guys for listening to this podcast. If you like this podcast, 416 00:22:07,520 --> 00:22:10,119 Speaker 1: please like and subscribe to the iHeartRadio app Apple Podcasts, 417 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,399 Speaker 1: where we get your podcast YouTube Now. My videos are 418 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,800 Speaker 1: on YouTube. If you liked this episode and you like 419 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,560 Speaker 1: this show, please give me a five star review. It 420 00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,720 Speaker 1: really helps get the word out. Thank you guys, and 421 00:22:18,760 --> 00:22:20,000 Speaker 1: I will see you all next week.