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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Ju Us prow read.

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Speaker 3: Enough there were running again, So smoothe so sweet.

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Speaker 4: SID sixteen just glorious extrocution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 4: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 1: That's why you.

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Speaker 4: See your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements the most

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Speaker 4: dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them up.

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Speaker 4: I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The love is left too, the wide eyed, drilled bibus

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Speaker 3: how old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 5: Hello everyone, and welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting

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Speaker 5: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lee

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Speaker 5: buff and joining me for this episode every episode are

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Speaker 5: Bja Cunningham and Anthony Debundo. My brave co host. Anthony

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Speaker 5: is being pulled in a hundred different directions as we

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Speaker 5: get towards the start of the baseball season. We're in

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Speaker 5: the middle of March Madness, but we're focused on a

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Speaker 5: ten match Premier League slate. We'll do a jaunt around Europe.

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Speaker 5: It's a huge, huge weekend in the Premier League for

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Speaker 5: the title race and beyond. We'll get into all of it.

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Speaker 5: But as a reminder, Wonder Goal is proudly presented by

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Speaker 5: North Carolina It's newer sports book, Bet three sixty five

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Speaker 5: day they power up the odds one hundreds of bets

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Speaker 5: six to five boosts specific markets, your winnings and even parlays,

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Speaker 5: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost.

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Speaker 5: Check out the boost and see why it's and never

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Speaker 5: ordinary Bet three six five. You must be twenty one

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Speaker 5: or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 5: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older

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Speaker 5: in Kentucky. And if you or anyone you know has

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Speaker 5: a gambling problem, please call one eight hundred gambler or

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Speaker 5: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms, conditions and

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Speaker 5: restrictions apply. There's really only one place to start Everton. Yeah,

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Speaker 5: it's gonna be Evertten and born Mith baby, there's only

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Speaker 5: one place to start here. Eleven thirty am a beautiful

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Speaker 5: Sunday setup for us. I will start with the Sunday

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Speaker 5: games first. We'll start with the eleven thirty am kickoff

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Speaker 5: first Title Race six pointer between Man City, who are

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Speaker 5: odds on minus one ten at home on the three

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Speaker 5: way line arsenals plus two eighty. The draw here also

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Speaker 5: pays out plus two eighty. Arsenal at the top of

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Speaker 5: the table on goal difference right now ahead of Liverpool.

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Speaker 5: They both are on sixty four points, City on sixty three.

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Speaker 5: The Gunners have a plus forty six goal difference, the

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Speaker 5: Reds Anthony's Reds plus thirty nine and Man City at

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Speaker 5: plus thirty five BJ. We'll start with you, as a

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Speaker 5: resident Arsenal fan. I think that the cliche now with

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Speaker 5: these Title Race six pointers was that they used to

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Speaker 5: be very cagey and then they started to go in

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Speaker 5: the other direction, in like the pandemic post pandemic years.

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Speaker 5: But we just saw one between Liverpool and City that

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Speaker 5: I think played out more like the former the cage here.

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Speaker 5: Do you expect another tight, maybe slow, snoozy kind of

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Speaker 5: match here at the ety Haad on Sunday?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely?

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Speaker 2: I do.

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Speaker 1: I think last time these two met in October is

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Speaker 1: going to be pretty close to a mirror image of

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Speaker 1: that match. So let's first start because there are some

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Speaker 1: injuries we have to account for before going into this.

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Speaker 1: On Arsenal side, Sokka, Martinelli and Gabrielle are all questionable.

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Speaker 1: Looks like Gabrielle is actually gonna be okay to play,

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Speaker 1: just play. You're paying same thing with Soccer, But as

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Speaker 1: it looks right now, Martinelli might not start, just be

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Speaker 1: on the benchould come off at halftime. That's important because

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Speaker 1: you know, if I'll put it this way, if Arsenal

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Speaker 1: is going to somehow or if Arsenal's going to win

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Speaker 1: this match, either Soccer or Martinelli has to play. They

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Speaker 1: are not going to be able to create against City

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Speaker 1: if both of them don't play. Because if you remember

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Speaker 1: the last meeting, Socca didn't play and Martinelli came on

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Speaker 1: at halftime, and if you watch the first half, which

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Speaker 1: I did, go rewatch this match over the break, Arsenal

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Speaker 1: did absolutely nothing, and quite frankly, both teams really struggled

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Speaker 1: to actually build out of the back when the ball

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Speaker 1: was from a goalkick situation, and basically both teams were

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Speaker 1: pressing high and both teams struggled to play out of

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Speaker 1: their own end. It was just a couple of passes

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Speaker 1: and then try to send a long ball up to

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Speaker 1: the striker, and that just kind of kept happening like

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Speaker 1: over and over and over again. And then if teams

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Speaker 1: did either one did progress ball in the final third,

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Speaker 1: they'd settle on arrest defense and it was very difficult

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Speaker 1: to play through the center parts of the pitch. So

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Speaker 1: I think you're can see something very similar to that

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Speaker 1: in this match. But in terms of the and who

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Speaker 1: if Arsenal does have both Soaka and Martinelli available, I

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Speaker 1: don't really think that City's that much better than Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: I'll grant you that they're much better at creating chances

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Speaker 1: from open play, but they're not better out of possession.

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Speaker 1: In fact, they're clearly worse out of possession than Arsenal

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Speaker 1: is right now, and Arsenal can control this game out

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Speaker 1: of possession. You know, I saw stat earlier this week

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Speaker 1: that Arsenal on second balls since the midway point in

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Speaker 1: the season are winning about seventy percent of those, Like

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Speaker 1: that's an insane amount to be able to win those,

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Speaker 1: and it just kind of shows how good they are

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Speaker 1: at defending those long passes. Like I mentioned many times before,

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Speaker 1: for City, it looks like Johnstones is not going to play,

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Speaker 1: or at least at the time of recording this on Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: he is doubtful after picking up an injury from playing

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Speaker 1: with England. That is incredibly important for City because he

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Speaker 1: is probably, outside of Roger, the most influential person in

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Speaker 1: trying to build out of the back because of the

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Speaker 1: way he inverts into the center part of the pitch.

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Speaker 1: So if he's not available, that means it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a Kanji and that type of role. And as

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Speaker 1: we've seen from Ecanji a couple of times, he's been

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Speaker 1: a tad shakey and has turned the ball over a

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Speaker 1: couple times when they've actually played some decent pressing teams.

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Speaker 1: So you know, if you just run through all the

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Speaker 1: categories and you can go to my Twitter right now,

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Speaker 1: I put a nice little chart of all the advanced

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Speaker 1: metrics comparing Arsenal and City. I won't go through them

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Speaker 1: and now waste your time. But there's really not that

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Speaker 1: many areas that City is significantly better than Arsenal than

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Speaker 1: Arsenal is, and Arsenal is significantly better and a lot

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Speaker 1: out of possession stats, so I find it hard to

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Speaker 1: believe when we have two teams that want to maintain

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Speaker 1: control that they're going to play aggressive and leave themselves

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Speaker 1: open to mistakes. And that's what happened in the last meeting, right,

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Speaker 1: Like neither team wanted to make a mistake and eventually

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Speaker 1: it was a deflection goal that gave Arsenal the one

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Speaker 1: to win, but really probably should have ended zero zero.

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Speaker 1: City for the match only took four shots in that match.

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Speaker 1: And it kind of also highlights that where is Cities

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Speaker 1: you know, big win against a really good opponent this year? Right,

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Speaker 1: because they have not beat a Big six team outside

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Speaker 1: of Manchester United. They've beaten Leipzig twice in the Champions League,

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Speaker 1: but outside of that, what an away win against Tottenham

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Speaker 1: in the FA Cup, like like that's it. They've drawn

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Speaker 1: Liverpool twice, they lost to Arsenal, they lost on penalties

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Speaker 1: to them in the Community Shield. I know that was

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Speaker 1: ages ago, but it really does highlight that they are

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Speaker 1: worse out of possession there. You know, they're aut point

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Speaker 1: nine non penalty XG. They're outside the top ten an

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Speaker 1: opponent build up completion percentage allowed. And the last thing

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Speaker 1: I want to mention you know a stat that we

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Speaker 1: like to talk about a lot is final third of

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Speaker 1: box entry conversion rate, and City is not doing a

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Speaker 1: very good job at getting into the opponent's penalty. They're

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Speaker 1: actually thirteenth in that category, and defensively they actually are

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Speaker 1: in outside the top ten as well, while as Arsenal

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Speaker 1: is first and second offensively and defensively in that category.

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Speaker 1: So there's clear signs the City is worse out of possession.

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Speaker 1: They've been exposed in transitioned many times. And if Stones

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Speaker 1: and Kyle Walker, who's also questionable for this match, are

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Speaker 1: not going to play, that's going to leave a lot

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Speaker 1: of space outside for both Socca and Martinelli's top rate

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Speaker 1: in one v one situations. So I think this does

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Speaker 1: play out KG. I do like one hundred two and

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Speaker 1: a half at anything plus money, and if Soccer or

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Speaker 1: Martinelli starts, I really like Arsenal plus a half because

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Speaker 1: I don't think that they are worse than City and

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Speaker 1: I think that.

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Speaker 6: These two teams are actually really comparable.

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Speaker 3: Right now, Yeah, I think Pap will tell you a

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Speaker 3: lot about his lineup choice. You know, they did not

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Speaker 3: start Doku against Liverpool, which I.

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Speaker 4: Think we both thought they would.

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Speaker 3: We all thought that we you know, I bet a

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Speaker 3: Doku prop that got voided, and their decision to play

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Speaker 3: no outlets makes me think that he's going to try

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Speaker 3: to go to a similar approach here. And we said

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Speaker 3: this before the Liverpool match, and BJ and I were

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Speaker 3: joking about it in our meeting on Monday. This is

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Speaker 3: more of a can't lose than a must win for

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Speaker 3: both teams, and I think that plays out, especially in

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Speaker 3: the first half, where you know you're not going to

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Speaker 3: see either team take chances, and it's you know, not

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Speaker 3: a surprise given that Arteta is a disciple of PEP

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Speaker 3: and how they approach the game is quite similar in

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Speaker 3: desire for control. You know, even the City Liverpool game,

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Speaker 3: like at the end, I didn't think that either team.

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Speaker 4: Was really happy with the draw.

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Speaker 3: I mean I thought both teams really gave it a go,

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Speaker 3: especially Liverpool, who like missed a bunch of big chances

187
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Speaker 3: at the end there and really had the City, I

188
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Speaker 3: thought on the ropes. But that's different because this is

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Speaker 3: now at in Manchester and it's a team like Arsenal

190
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Speaker 3: who doesn't really want to do transition, who wants to

191
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Speaker 3: make everything very controlled. They're not at their best on

192
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Speaker 3: the break because they just don't really prioritize it. And

193
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Speaker 3: so as a result of that, like where are we

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Speaker 3: getting the three goals here? It's very hard to see

195
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Speaker 3: it for me unless there's like a super early goal

196
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Speaker 3: and everything changes. Of course, any you know, game state

197
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Speaker 3: can change anything, but the majority of the game states

198
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Speaker 3: here have this playing out as like a one to

199
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Speaker 3: one one no kind of game again, and I like

200
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Speaker 3: under two and a half at plus one ten. That's

201
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Speaker 3: why hair bet for this game. I bet it pretty

202
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Speaker 3: much as soon as I saw a line open for

203
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Speaker 3: it because I had a feeling it was going to

204
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Speaker 3: open too high. And it's the same thing where the

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Speaker 3: undertook a ton of money closer to kick. In the

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Speaker 3: first meeting, Soccer was out. Rodger didn't play, of course,

207
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Speaker 3: but I don't think it would have mattered if Soccer

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Speaker 3: and Martinelli had played, because Arsenal wasn't getting themselves into

209
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Speaker 3: positions to take advantage. It was just that they there

210
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Speaker 3: was nothing happening. The game stayed within the midfield for

211
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Speaker 3: pretty much the entirety of the match until one moment

212
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Speaker 3: where Martinelli broke free out of.

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Speaker 4: The deflection scores.

214
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Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't see a ton in this and

215
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Speaker 3: I think that you know, a draw suits both teams,

216
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Speaker 3: given that that sets up for a finishing run where

217
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Speaker 3: Arsenal will feel very confident in their ability to beat

218
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Speaker 3: up on the bad teams. City has proven their ability

219
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Speaker 3: to beat up on the bad teams, and given the

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Speaker 3: remaining schedules, it's just a matter of like, will Liverpool

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Speaker 3: drop enough points, which I think we all agree they're

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Speaker 3: the most vulnerable of the three going forward in the

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Speaker 3: closing run. So that's what decides this title race ultimately,

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Speaker 3: is like Liverpool is going to have the advantage after

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Speaker 3: this weekend almost certainly, and then we're going to go

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Speaker 3: into a sprint where Liverpool is most likely to get

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Speaker 3: tripped up because of their defensive issues, but you know

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Speaker 3: then not necessarily guarantee they will. So I think that's

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Speaker 3: where we get into this now, and I just trust

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Speaker 3: these defenses enough to do it, and I trust Pep

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Speaker 3: to say, you know, he sees it, and I think

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Speaker 3: I'm sure he saw it because there has been a

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Speaker 3: notable change when they were playing those Brentford and Chelsea

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Speaker 3: games earlier in this little run here, they were playing

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Speaker 3: the four one four one and just bludgeoning teams with shots,

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Speaker 3: but they were giving.

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Speaker 4: Up a lot at the other end.

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Speaker 3: And really ever since that Chelsea match, they have turned

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Speaker 3: the dial again and not been playing as an aggressive

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Speaker 3: of lineup and kind of trying to strangle games again more.

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Speaker 3: And also like Edison not being there. I don't know,

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Speaker 3: I don't I mean Edison's like pretty average to me.

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Speaker 1: Now I will say one more thing is that you know,

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Speaker 1: teams have been targeting left back, whether it be at

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Speaker 1: Harrigvardiole with City, they've been targeting them quite a bit,

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Speaker 1: trying to get in two the ones outside there. And

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Speaker 1: the fact that essentially Arsenal, you know, they tried to

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Speaker 1: start in the previous mean they tried to start Gabby

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Speaker 1: hayeszus out there instead of up top because I think

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Speaker 1: they thought that they didn't really have another option to

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Speaker 1: start out right, might write because it's basically like Reys Nelson,

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Speaker 1: I guess would be their best option. But if Socca

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Speaker 1: is available and they can get twov ones outside against

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Speaker 1: Bardiola or Ak, which is something Chelsea did to the

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Speaker 1: City in both meetings, Arsenal could create some chances, and

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Speaker 1: we know Arsenal likes to create chances from out wide

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Speaker 1: and inside right, they don't really create chances through the

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Speaker 1: middle of the pitch. So I think that's you know,

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Speaker 1: if you want to play any type of props, you know,

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Speaker 1: if Socca does play and you know, some type of

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Speaker 1: soccer assists or shot prop I think would be interesting

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Speaker 1: because of that twov one outside. But yeah, this, like

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Speaker 1: Anthony said, this definitely like as an Arsenal fan, if

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Speaker 1: we got a draw, I'd be thrilled getting out of

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Speaker 1: this with a draw. Like, you know, a loss is

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Speaker 1: pretty detrimental. It doesn't completely like tank the title hopes,

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Speaker 1: but it is quite a bit because nobody, like everybody's

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Speaker 1: holding Serve right now, nobody's losing, nobody's drawing. So but

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Speaker 1: in the end we'll get to them in a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But Todham is going to be the team that ultimately

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Speaker 1: decides this title race. When they play these teams back

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Speaker 1: to back to back.

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Speaker 3: Three cracks are the best three teams. Yeah, probably the

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Speaker 3: way they play, they're gonna lose one of those games

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Speaker 3: by three plus, but they'll they'll be in. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they get they get Liverpool at Liverpool, they get City

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Speaker 3: at home, so I think that might be The biggest

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Speaker 3: thing is like Liverpool gets Tottenham at home and Tottenham

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Speaker 3: gets to host City and host Arsenal.

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Speaker 1: So and we could and honestly and watch this match

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Speaker 1: closely because we could see another double round of City

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Speaker 1: and Arsenal in the Champions League if both of them

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Speaker 1: get through.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the week that City and Arsenal could

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Speaker 3: play each other in the Champions League. The middle match

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Speaker 3: between those would be Liverpool Tottenham, So you'd have City

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Speaker 3: and Arsenal playing Champions League matches. Arsenal hosting Bourne, Myuth,

288
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Speaker 3: City hosting Wolves, so not particularly difficult matches. But then

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Speaker 3: while that's happening, Liverpool gets Tottenham in the league. Like

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Speaker 3: that's just so many high leverage matches, and Arsenal doesn't

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Speaker 3: win the league, they still have just as live doing

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Speaker 3: the Champions League.

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Speaker 4: I think more live. Uh so it would be really interesting.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I tend to agree with you guys that I

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Speaker 5: think it's it's going to play out pretty like two

296
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Speaker 5: walls looking at each other, and I think that puts

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Speaker 5: some value on the draw plus two eighty. I think

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Speaker 5: nil nil at twelve to one is a really good

299
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Speaker 5: bet too, with what I'm expecting out of this match,

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Speaker 5: and I think that also live unders if there's an

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Speaker 5: early goal as well. Like this, this thing feels like

302
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Speaker 5: it's going to shut down. That is not the case

303
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Speaker 5: for the other match that has some major implications on

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Speaker 5: the title, the title race. Let's just set it up

305
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Speaker 5: real quick. In terms of the odds I gave you

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Speaker 5: the standings, City is plus one ten to win it

307
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Speaker 5: to win the title, Liverpool two to one, and Arsenal

308
00:14:36,920 --> 00:14:41,440
Speaker 5: is the third favorite at plus two seventy five. And

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Speaker 5: the Reds are hosting Brighton. I think this is actually

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Speaker 5: trickier than these odds imply Liverpool minus two seventy five,

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Speaker 5: Brighton plus six fifty and the draw is plus four

312
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:53,920
Speaker 5: to fifty. We know about Brighton's form and the kind

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Speaker 5: of helter skelter nature of the season, especially after the

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Speaker 5: first couple of months they are it feels like they

315
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Speaker 5: are either bashing a team or getting bashed by a

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00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:09,200
Speaker 5: team every week, and that played out two weeks before

317
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Speaker 5: the international break. They got worked by Fulham. Then they

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Speaker 5: came back and nicked a one nil against Nottingham Forest

319
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Speaker 5: right before the break. And I think one thing to

320
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Speaker 5: keep in mind here is as all over the map

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Speaker 5: as their results have looked they are in terms of

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Speaker 5: just expected points since the turn of the year. So

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Speaker 5: for most teams it's nine matches their top four team

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Speaker 5: in expected points. So I don't think that they're as

325
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Speaker 5: bad as this record implies. But it is the classic

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Speaker 5: case with Bourne, myth that their underlying metrics will kind

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Speaker 5: of maybe gloss them up a bit. I do think,

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Speaker 5: you know, when you look at Liverpool minus two seventy

329
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Speaker 5: five Brighton plus six fifty on the three way line,

330
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Speaker 5: I think I would much rather play Brighton, and I'm

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Speaker 5: probably going to especially, I mean, Liverpoo underclap has had

332
00:16:01,880 --> 00:16:04,760
Speaker 5: hosts and hosts of problems with this Brighton team. So

333
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Speaker 5: anything for you here, BJ, No, I do.

334
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Speaker 1: Show a little bit of value on Brighton. What my

335
00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:16,280
Speaker 1: concern here with Brighton is is that, you know, Liverpool

336
00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 1: has shown that, especially you know against City, that against

337
00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:25,280
Speaker 1: really really good build up teams they will sit off

338
00:16:25,280 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 1: a little bit and they won't try and press them

339
00:16:27,160 --> 00:16:29,800
Speaker 1: as high. But in a match like this, you know,

340
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Speaker 1: I mean I've said the quote many times, but you know,

341
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,800
Speaker 1: as Thomas Frank once said, with this Brighton team, you

342
00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 1: either have to give them what they want or you

343
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Speaker 1: have to sit in a low block and Liverpool's going

344
00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:39,760
Speaker 1: to give them what they want, and they're going to

345
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Speaker 1: press them, and they're going to press them relentlessly. And

346
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Speaker 1: Liverpool's press now that Endo is back in the lineup,

347
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Speaker 1: has been so much better than it was in the

348
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Speaker 1: beginning of the season. So I really worry that Brighton

349
00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:52,400
Speaker 1: could just get turned over here a bunch of times

350
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Speaker 1: in Liverpool could get a lot of easy transition breaks.

351
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Speaker 1: So do project a little bit of value on Brighton?

352
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Speaker 1: Do you think Liverpool is generally a little bit over

353
00:16:59,800 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 1: better valued. Well, there's some couple of injury concerns here

354
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 1: for Liverpool as well, so potentially if some of those

355
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Speaker 1: guys don't play. I believe Nunez and both cannot are

356
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,560
Speaker 1: both questionable, so I'm assuming both of them will will play,

357
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:14,760
Speaker 1: but we'll obviously see. But no, I'm going to pass

358
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Speaker 1: on this one because I'm a little concerned with Brighton

359
00:17:17,240 --> 00:17:19,640
Speaker 1: tactically going to anfield with this type of setup.

360
00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, I really want to that Brighton too. You make

361
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:26,080
Speaker 3: the point leave off. It feels as though the dialogue

362
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:30,120
Speaker 3: and discourse around how Brown Brighton is not nearly as

363
00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:33,240
Speaker 3: as much worse than the team's actually played, and the

364
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,879
Speaker 3: market kind of feels that way too, because you know,

365
00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:38,639
Speaker 3: they still closed a favored against Roma when everybody was

366
00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,159
Speaker 3: you know, it seemed like everybody I saw or at

367
00:17:41,240 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 3: least read about, was saying, oh, much better form Roma

368
00:17:44,040 --> 00:17:46,400
Speaker 3: was in with the new manager. And you know, Roma

369
00:17:46,440 --> 00:17:50,080
Speaker 3: gets through pretty comfortably in the end. But the problem

370
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Speaker 3: is that when Brighton has traveled this season with their approach,

371
00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,680
Speaker 3: they have really struggled in transition defense. Their tradition defense

372
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,000
Speaker 3: numbers have held up better at home. They've actually been

373
00:17:58,040 --> 00:18:01,920
Speaker 3: I think underrated defensively relative to what you'd expect them

374
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,680
Speaker 3: to be this year. Their defense is still an above

375
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,119
Speaker 3: average Premier League defense, which I don't think we all

376
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:11,640
Speaker 3: thought for sure. The bigger problem has been goals for them,

377
00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:13,800
Speaker 3: and so that leads me to want to play the

378
00:18:13,920 --> 00:18:17,679
Speaker 3: under here. But again, Nunez being in or out is

379
00:18:17,800 --> 00:18:19,959
Speaker 3: such a massive difference. I mean, we're talking about the

380
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 3: most valuable attacking player in the Premier League this year,

381
00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 3: Darwin Nunez, So whether he's in a out huge swing.

382
00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,800
Speaker 3: And then you know, the rest of this injury situation

383
00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:31,240
Speaker 3: looks like Jata is still another week away, Trent is

384
00:18:31,240 --> 00:18:34,840
Speaker 3: still another week away, so you know, there's still a

385
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:37,280
Speaker 3: lot of uncertainty with who's going to actually play for

386
00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:41,680
Speaker 3: Liverpool in this game. But if Kant is out, which

387
00:18:42,320 --> 00:18:44,920
Speaker 3: is unclear as well, I still think the defense is

388
00:18:44,960 --> 00:18:47,359
Speaker 3: vulnerable too. So I come down on this, you know,

389
00:18:47,480 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 3: leaning toward Brighton and the under, but not wanting to

390
00:18:49,280 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 3: bet against Liverpool at Anfield and I have a strict

391
00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:52,439
Speaker 3: rule against that.

392
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Speaker 4: Right now, lay off this one.

393
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Speaker 1: Well, don't worry. They're going to lose their next match

394
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 1: at home. It's Sheffield right Yeahfie, Yeah, we'll get a

395
00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:02,840
Speaker 1: thirty five to one on that.

396
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:04,719
Speaker 6: Michael Chef plus excited.

397
00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:07,760
Speaker 5: Uh yeah, Brighton the bright conversation.

398
00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:09,639
Speaker 3: Brighton's I don't really want to do Brighton to score first.

399
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 3: Liverpool's come from behind so effectively.

400
00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:18,400
Speaker 1: And the other thing with with Brighton as well as

401
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:21,119
Speaker 1: obviously with Thoma's up, but even more important, Joe Pedro

402
00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:22,600
Speaker 1: is also out till that.

403
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's saying the attacker, he's their best attacker.

404
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:27,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, even if you take out penalties like he's been

405
00:19:27,680 --> 00:19:32,679
Speaker 3: pretty productive for them. Brighton, no March, no Matoma, no

406
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:35,399
Speaker 3: Jow Pedro. That was the front three that started the

407
00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 3: season alongside with like slash one of well back or

408
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 3: ferg and so when you just don't have those three,

409
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,879
Speaker 3: I mean we talk about how fungible Brighton is and

410
00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:47,560
Speaker 3: how interchangeable, but like that's still the three guys who

411
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,280
Speaker 3: they expected to come into the season as their three

412
00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,359
Speaker 3: or the four best attackers just not playing.

413
00:19:51,600 --> 00:19:53,680
Speaker 1: It's detrimental when you don't have your three best attackers,

414
00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,520
Speaker 1: like even if you have good ones behind them, like it's.

415
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:59,800
Speaker 2: Like we likes going to be worse best attackers.

416
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 4: And it's shown in the numbers.

417
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 3: I mean, they didn't create much against Roma, they were

418
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,760
Speaker 3: down three goal four goals, didn't create a ton in

419
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:08,399
Speaker 3: that game, and then you know they barely created against

420
00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:09,040
Speaker 3: Forest at home.

421
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 4: Now they're going to anfield, so you can.

422
00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 3: Just see a world where you know, maybe it's a

423
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 3: very competitive first half Brighton can't quite break through and

424
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,600
Speaker 3: then it's one nil Liverpool. Late you're holding like a

425
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 3: plus one and a half and you just know that

426
00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,399
Speaker 3: second goal is going to come. It's just like not

427
00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:25,680
Speaker 3: that fun of a sweat. So if it's not gonna

428
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 3: be fun to bet Brighton here, I don't really love it,

429
00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,400
Speaker 3: although I do think there's a spot coming where we're

430
00:20:32,400 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 3: going to be on Brighton in a couple of weeks.

431
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 4: Really excited for that.

432
00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:39,080
Speaker 1: Oh really right?

433
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:42,200
Speaker 5: All right, so that's the title race. Those matches, Like

434
00:20:42,240 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 5: I said, the Liverpool matches nine am on Sunday, the

435
00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:47,960
Speaker 5: City Arsenal match comes in at eleven thirty.

436
00:20:48,440 --> 00:20:50,360
Speaker 1: Bool drops points. That'd be so amazing.

437
00:20:50,560 --> 00:20:54,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, it'll set up for a beautiful, beautiful Sunday morning

438
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:58,679
Speaker 5: for for everybody, especially Anthony who he'll have his scarf

439
00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:01,880
Speaker 5: out singing you never want alone the.

440
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,040
Speaker 6: Sky blue scarf at eleven thirty.

441
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:07,359
Speaker 4: I mean it's a great level. Hudder.

442
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, thanks tips Newcastle. Next, this is all you, Tony.

443
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:19,199
Speaker 5: They're minus one twenty at home against west Ham. The

444
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 5: Hammer's traveling plus two eighty and this straw is plus

445
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:22,320
Speaker 5: three twenty.

446
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 4: What a difference a year makes.

447
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 3: Last year we would have been highlighting these two defenses

448
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,480
Speaker 3: and saying that they were, you know, two of the

449
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 3: five or six seven best, and now we're talking about

450
00:21:32,840 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 3: two defenses who can't stop anything. And that's just this

451
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,080
Speaker 3: total is too low. As a result, over three and

452
00:21:38,080 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 3: a half over three minus one fifteen one twenty. West

453
00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 3: Ham this season bottom three defense. They are now worse

454
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:49,480
Speaker 3: in just pure XG than Burnley and if you take

455
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 3: any Newcastle number after October, they are in the bottom three,

456
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 3: worse than west Ham, Burnley and even worse than Sheffield

457
00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 3: by x G.

458
00:21:57,520 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 4: So that's how bad.

459
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 3: Newcastle's numbers had and there's not a ton to think

460
00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:07,919
Speaker 3: that like west Ham, how they're designed to play, you know,

461
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,160
Speaker 3: with their their ability and transition, with their full front

462
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 3: three healthy, which has not always been true this year,

463
00:22:14,359 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 3: they're a pretty effective counter attacking unit. And you know

464
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,119
Speaker 3: Kudis might even be back for this. He's listed at

465
00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 3: fifty to fifty to be back for this, so you

466
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 3: Antonio even came back and looked a little little fresh

467
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 3: off of a long injury, you know, last week in

468
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:34,240
Speaker 3: the match against Villa. So you have two very bad defenses,

469
00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 3: one of which cannot defend in transition, a west Ham

470
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: attack that loves to hit you on the break. Newcastle's

471
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 3: had problems defending set pieces, which we know west Ham's

472
00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 3: always dangerous. I think this total is low at three,

473
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 3: and I'm going to roll with the over as a result.

474
00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:51,520
Speaker 3: Newcastle also, you know, know, so you know, we know

475
00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 3: that Wilson's done, but they do have now Esock fit.

476
00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 3: So that's nice at least to have one of the

477
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 3: two guys that they rely so heavily on. And meanwhile,

478
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 3: like the rest of the defenders don't look to be

479
00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:08,879
Speaker 3: back here between Trippier even Lebermento is questionable. So like

480
00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:11,880
Speaker 3: all of their wings, all of their fullbacks are hurt just.

481
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 5: About right, So you're looking at the over there. Unfortunately,

482
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:24,440
Speaker 5: that means Everton and Born with up next. Oh god, yeah,

483
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:28,119
Speaker 5: it's uh, it's incredible to say it, but Everton have

484
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:32,240
Speaker 5: not won a match still since what December and sixteenth,

485
00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 5: I believe it is. So we're looking at a an

486
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,199
Speaker 5: eleven match I'm beaten streak, and I would say we

487
00:23:39,320 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 5: probably bet them what eight of those.

488
00:23:42,520 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 2: At least, as like.

489
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 3: Let's see, we bet them against Tottenham the twenty third,

490
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:51,199
Speaker 3: we bet them against City the twenty seventh. I know

491
00:23:51,320 --> 00:23:53,120
Speaker 3: I had them against Wolves on the thirtieth.

492
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:54,520
Speaker 1: Yep, I had them.

493
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 3: Well a lot of these were like drawn, no bet, yeah,

494
00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:00,040
Speaker 3: draw bed against Fulham and Villa, those were pushes. We

495
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:04,640
Speaker 3: had them against Spurs. They covered that one, they didn't win. Yeah,

496
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 3: so you know, yeah, how you're playing that one covered

497
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 3: at ever they've had a lot of road draws as dogs,

498
00:24:11,880 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 3: they've been good, but anytime they've been any close.

499
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 4: To a favorite, forget it.

500
00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:19,640
Speaker 3: The West, the Palace game, the Wolves game off.

501
00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, well now they'll be a road dog. They are

502
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:27,439
Speaker 5: traveling to Bournemouth and the Cherries plus one fifteen, Everton

503
00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 5: plus two twenty five. This straw is sitting at plus

504
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 5: two sixty. Yeah. That the relegation race was flipped on

505
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 5: its head again with the forest point deduction. Now and

506
00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 5: they're appealing. Ah, it's it's all sorts of lunacy at

507
00:24:44,800 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 5: the bottom of the table. But I still think the

508
00:24:48,440 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 5: most disturbing part of this relegation race is evidence process

509
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 5: first results. At some point, like you'd expect them to

510
00:24:56,920 --> 00:25:03,320
Speaker 5: catch a win, but who knows. So I'll be betting them, Anthony.

511
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 3: I mean, the day we stop betting them is when

512
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,880
Speaker 3: they go on this hot run. Remember we had a look,

513
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,439
Speaker 3: it's not the first time we've had this thing happen. Remember,

514
00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 3: so Everton had that brutal stretch to start the season.

515
00:25:15,160 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 3: You know, they had some really tough beats and then

516
00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 3: they had that loss to United. Remember that was like

517
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 3: that was the loss where we were like, we got

518
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:24,440
Speaker 3: to stop doing this every week like this is not

519
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,520
Speaker 3: worth it whatever, But then they went on that winning

520
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,119
Speaker 3: run where they pants Newcastle pants, Chelsea pants Burnley. The

521
00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 3: problem is, and somebody pointed this out before the break.

522
00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 3: I think somebody sent it the discord I saw on

523
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 3: Twitter as well. If you just track their non penalty

524
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,880
Speaker 3: XG per shot, it is plunging. And I think that

525
00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 3: you know, when you're an attack that's built so much

526
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 3: around set pieces, you are just naturally more high variants.

527
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,120
Speaker 3: I mean, you're relying on dead ball situations going right

528
00:25:50,480 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: to create a bunch of big chances, and if you

529
00:25:52,520 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 3: have games where you don't get them, or you know,

530
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,240
Speaker 3: they just don't quite come off. Maybe you could even

531
00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,560
Speaker 3: make a case that XG is missing on Everton a

532
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:03,800
Speaker 3: little bit because so many of their chances are headed

533
00:26:04,680 --> 00:26:07,760
Speaker 3: from set pieces with a ton of bodies already in

534
00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,199
Speaker 3: the box, and you're just less likely to score from

535
00:26:10,240 --> 00:26:13,359
Speaker 3: those situations versus like traditional shots where there's maybe one

536
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 3: or two defenders in the way. That's the case that

537
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,520
Speaker 3: you could make to me, and I would say maybe

538
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 3: XG is missing because I mean, Everton just keeps getting

539
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 3: priced to what their XG says they should be roughly

540
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 3: and they're not living up to that repeatedly. So at

541
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,479
Speaker 3: what point are we just doing the insane thing and

542
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 3: saying yes, at some point they will play up to

543
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,479
Speaker 3: their XG. But that's also just like getting us back

544
00:26:36,520 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 3: to what the market thinks like. The market's not like

545
00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 3: it's like we're like, oh, yeah, the market thinks they're

546
00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,080
Speaker 3: a bottom five team, because it obviously doesn't. So I'm

547
00:26:43,160 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 3: kind of stuck with Everton now. And the non penalty

548
00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:49,000
Speaker 3: XU you for shot going down is a little scary.

549
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with all that, but in the same token,

550
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:57,400
Speaker 1: I think that this type of matchup is actually really

551
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:01,000
Speaker 1: really good for Everton because of the way that Bournemouth

552
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,800
Speaker 1: is successful or how they've been successful recently, because if

553
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 1: you look at it, you know Bournemouth has had this

554
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: resurgence because not only have they played a lot of

555
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:13,600
Speaker 1: teams in the bottom half of the table, but they've

556
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,880
Speaker 1: played a lot of teams that will try to build

557
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 1: out of the back and then they can unleash their

558
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:20,119
Speaker 1: high and press on them and that's where they've scored

559
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: a lot of their goals. They've picked off teams. Solanki's

560
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: been a great form in those transition type moments. But

561
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 1: I want to point back to the match that they

562
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:31,919
Speaker 1: just played right before the break against Lutontown. I know

563
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: it was crazy. I know Bournemouth deserved to win it.

564
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,840
Speaker 1: I totally agree, right, but if you've watched it, how

565
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:40,840
Speaker 1: Luton Town was able to exert win I mean, yeah,

566
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 1: in the end they.

567
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:43,360
Speaker 4: Created more they were down three nil.

568
00:27:43,520 --> 00:27:44,920
Speaker 1: I know they were down three noil, but in the

569
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: end they created more chances, and yes, the end they

570
00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:48,840
Speaker 1: were the better team.

571
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 4: Right back on.

572
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,320
Speaker 1: That, But my point is is that if you watched

573
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 1: how Lutontown was able to exploit them in transition, where

574
00:27:58,040 --> 00:27:59,879
Speaker 1: were they exploiting them. They were exploiting them in the

575
00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 1: wide areas and Everton is like a two x three

576
00:28:03,600 --> 00:28:06,280
Speaker 1: x times like better version of what Lowton Town is

577
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 1: trying to trying to be. Right, So you look at

578
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 1: you know how Bournemouth, you know, gave up all those chances.

579
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,119
Speaker 1: They're basically just off the crosses, right, and that's all

580
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 1: Everton does. And the other thing I want to point

581
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,480
Speaker 1: out with Bournemouth is I know that they are very

582
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,880
Speaker 1: diverse Tackley like, they can play in transition, they can

583
00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,960
Speaker 1: build out of the back if Everton just said says

584
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:29,359
Speaker 1: we're gonna sit in the mid block like try and

585
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: break us down. Like I don't really see a scenario

586
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 1: where Bournemouth is good enough to do that. And also

587
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: Bournemouth has made mistakes and build up they did the

588
00:28:37,359 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: last time they faced Everton when Everton beat them three nothing.

589
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:44,080
Speaker 1: And the last point I want to make Bournemouth is

590
00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 1: really struggling with aerial duals. They're bottom three in the

591
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: Premier League around forty five percent. And I know they've

592
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: been decent at defending set pieces this year, but facing

593
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,080
Speaker 1: Everton is a completely different animal, like on corners especially,

594
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 1: and if you're not good at winning aerial duels and

595
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:02,920
Speaker 1: being physical then Everton will punish you. And and in the end,

596
00:29:02,960 --> 00:29:04,800
Speaker 1: we're not asking Everton to get a win here, We're

597
00:29:04,840 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 1: just asking them to draw, right Like it's hard. It's

598
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: hard to get on here and say, you know, to

599
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:10,959
Speaker 1: bet Everton as a favorite and try to get them

600
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,280
Speaker 1: to win because you know they they always underform the

601
00:29:13,400 --> 00:29:15,720
Speaker 1: XTG and they can't score. But just asking them to

602
00:29:15,720 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 1: get a draw with a team that's that's an elite

603
00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: mid block and really good out of possession and can

604
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: play two different styles that can really frustrate bourn myth.

605
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: I think this is a really good matchup for them,

606
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: So I, like every some puss I.

607
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,640
Speaker 3: Have something tells me mister Leeboff is not exactly betting

608
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 3: on them to just get a draw.

609
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 4: With his.

610
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 5: We're asking them to win. For me, this is is

611
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,640
Speaker 5: one one for what it's yeah, yeah, or there'll be

612
00:29:40,800 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 5: it'll be nil nil and like three nil to Bourne

613
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 5: myth with like three goals in the last one.

614
00:29:45,040 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 3: Of one of those times we won betting Everton as

615
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 3: a favorite, BJ was this reverse fixture.

616
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's true.

617
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 4: A beautiful day.

618
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:54,680
Speaker 6: It was a beautiful a year, but it was beautiful.

619
00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 5: Next up this is you BJ, Chelsea and Burnley, with

620
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 5: Chelsea a prohibitive minus three fifty favorite at home, Burnley

621
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 5: plus eight fifty. The draw is five to one.

622
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:10,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the line is about right here. You know,

623
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 1: Burnley has transitioned into I think company as you know,

624
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 1: he realized it a long time ago and they've been

625
00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: doing this for a while that the style they played

626
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,320
Speaker 1: in the championship just was never going to work. So

627
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 1: he's just gone four four two trying to be better

628
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: in a defensive block out of possession, but they still

629
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 1: are just a you know, the second worst team in

630
00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: the Premier League. And you know, the one match that

631
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,080
Speaker 1: Chelsea actually had a lot of success with when they

632
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:39,120
Speaker 1: were even going through a bad running early on in

633
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: the season was this match against Burnley.

634
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 6: Because Burnley kept you.

635
00:30:42,160 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 1: Know, trying to press them high, they kept trying to

636
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,120
Speaker 1: go out of the back, and that's where Chelsea just

637
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 1: you know, they unleashed their high press and they caused

638
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 1: a lot of problems and got easy transition moments. So

639
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: for me, the line's about right. Don't really see any

640
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 1: value in the Chelsea I don't really want to say

641
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,600
Speaker 1: Burnley plus one and a half here on the road especially,

642
00:30:58,600 --> 00:30:59,000
Speaker 1: you don't.

643
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:00,920
Speaker 2: Really have an interest in the totals. So I think

644
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:01,320
Speaker 2: this is.

645
00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 1: One of the easiest passes on the board.

646
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 5: All right, easiest pass on the board to Forest and

647
00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 5: Palace a pretty big one for Forrest coming off of

648
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,840
Speaker 5: the points deduction they are appealing. It's going to make

649
00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 5: everything very convoluted as we get down the stretch. I

650
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:22,800
Speaker 5: think everybody in the front office of the Premier League

651
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:26,320
Speaker 5: and such will be hoping that Forrest just is able

652
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 5: to stay out of the relegation zone, so we don't

653
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 5: have to deal with that. But anyways, they are on

654
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:34,960
Speaker 5: twenty one points, Burnley on seventeen points, in Sheffield United

655
00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 5: on fourteen. That puts them right behind Luton at twenty

656
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 5: two points, Evidence twenty five, Brentford at twenty six, and

657
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 5: there's Palace twenty nine. They can get dragged back into

658
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 5: this thing, especially with a loss, but we shall see,

659
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 5: and it does look like there is a smidge of

660
00:31:53,760 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 5: value here with Forrest at home even at plus one twenty,

661
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 5: Palace traveling plus two forty and the Drip plus two thirty.

662
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 5: When I think, just when you bacon home and home

663
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:10,719
Speaker 5: field advantage, like there's just not that much to nippick

664
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:12,240
Speaker 5: between these two teams. I think you can make an

665
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 5: argument that Force is maybe marginally better, and you can

666
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:21,120
Speaker 5: definitely make an argument going the other way. Anthony, is

667
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 5: it Forest here? I just feel like it looks like

668
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 5: a good spot to back the tricky trees.

669
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a match where it's tricky because we're

670
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,840
Speaker 3: coming back from a break, so we don't really know.

671
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 3: As of Wednesday afternoon we're recording this, we don't know

672
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 3: the status of Iwony or Wood. Both are on the

673
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 3: injury report, you know the Premier Injuries dot Com, which

674
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 3: is an awesome resource for trying to keep up with

675
00:32:43,000 --> 00:32:45,840
Speaker 3: all these injuries, because it's crazy. The managers are constantly lying.

676
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:49,800
Speaker 3: They have Wood listed at fifty to fifty, they have

677
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 3: I Wony at twenty five percent.

678
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:52,520
Speaker 4: I mean, if they have neither.

679
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,480
Speaker 3: Gets a little icy, right, I mean, can Geo Raina

680
00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 3: get some minutes at any time? You know he's doing

681
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:00,200
Speaker 3: great for the national team. He never plays for the

682
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 3: teams anymore. They haven't seen to work him into the fold.

683
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 3: Much like I like Forest more than Palace, and they

684
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 3: are at home, so I want to bet them, but

685
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:11,720
Speaker 3: I don't want to lay them as a favorite. I

686
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:13,800
Speaker 3: don't want to play them to win a match because

687
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 3: at this price, given they might not have their two strikers,

688
00:33:18,760 --> 00:33:20,680
Speaker 3: it's very hard for me to see where the goals

689
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 3: come from. On the other side, like Palace defensively still

690
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 3: has some concerns. They haven't really played better under Glassner.

691
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,480
Speaker 3: It's been more of the more of the same. I

692
00:33:30,480 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 3: mean it's different and that they're more active out of possession,

693
00:33:33,360 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 3: but they're still like it's not exactly like a revolution

694
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 3: that they've played here. They they were you know, better

695
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:41,440
Speaker 3: than Newton Town at home in a game that ended

696
00:33:41,440 --> 00:33:44,280
Speaker 3: in a draw. Okay, that's not like too much to

697
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 3: write home about. They were pretty well outplayed in the

698
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 3: second half against Tottenham, which we've seen tottenam due to

699
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 3: a lot of teams, So I don't really have a

700
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 3: ton to say about Glassner at this current moment.

701
00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 4: They switch to a back three.

702
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,320
Speaker 3: That's somewhat interesting, but I think that's more out of

703
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 3: necessity because they just don't really trust any of their

704
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 3: other center backs with Gahe out, So this one is

705
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 3: going to be a stay away from me until we

706
00:34:06,600 --> 00:34:07,320
Speaker 3: get more information.

707
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: I'm staring at under two and a half minus one thirty. Yeah,

708
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 1: I would if would in Alanie, don't play.

709
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:16,520
Speaker 4: That numbers are not going to stay there though.

710
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:18,200
Speaker 1: It's not going to stay there, So we got to

711
00:34:18,239 --> 00:34:20,839
Speaker 1: wait and see on that one. So if you're quick

712
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: on the trigger and you can get that, if they don't,

713
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 1: both of them don't play and then great. But other

714
00:34:25,000 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 1: than that, yeah, this is a teams like Forrest you

715
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 1: definitely do not want to bet as a favorite against.

716
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:34,920
Speaker 1: You know, these at least halfway decent teams like Carstal.

717
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 4: I mean you know, we just saw it with Forrest.

718
00:34:36,719 --> 00:34:40,600
Speaker 3: We you know, we had them last weekend and dominated

719
00:34:40,640 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 3: the match against Luton, had multiple balls cleared off the line,

720
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 3: and then they concede from a set piece late. I mean,

721
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 3: we have seen this so many times with this team

722
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 3: that at a certain point we just have to kind

723
00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 3: of acknowledge that that's what they are. And their defense

724
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,480
Speaker 3: is good though, like it really isn't a bad defense,

725
00:34:55,239 --> 00:34:58,320
Speaker 3: but they have two key deficiencies that continue to get.

726
00:34:58,160 --> 00:34:59,120
Speaker 4: Hammered over and over again.

727
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:02,000
Speaker 3: And as goalkeeper and said pieces and over and over

728
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 3: and over again, they're just not explosive enough offensive.

729
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 4: We'd overcome that.

730
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 3: They're dropping a lot of points as a result. And

731
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 3: you know, like their last four matches all competitions, very

732
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:19,080
Speaker 3: competitive with United lose one nil, very competitive with Liverpool,

733
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 3: losing at the death one nil, very competitive with Brighton,

734
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,520
Speaker 3: lose one nil on a stoppage to own goal and

735
00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: then give up a late goal and draw one one

736
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:30,720
Speaker 3: with Lowton. Like that's just like kind of the season

737
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 3: where they've been really i think, quite good in their

738
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 3: last four matches. No points to show for it. One point, sorry,

739
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 3: then it should have been three.

740
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:43,440
Speaker 5: All right, here's a huge question for for this week

741
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 5: of Premier League matches. Are you going to betting Sheffield United?

742
00:35:46,920 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 5: They are at home, folks, traveling at minus one forty,

743
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 5: the draws three to one. Here. There's been some you know,

744
00:35:59,520 --> 00:36:04,480
Speaker 5: marginal improvements for Sheffield United since uh, Chris Wilder came back.

745
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,960
Speaker 5: They're creating more at the very least, they're scoring a

746
00:36:08,000 --> 00:36:13,360
Speaker 5: goal of game they are uh, I mean you really

747
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 5: have to to, you know, to stretch it to find it,

748
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 5: but it's there and when you look at I mean,

749
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 5: it's it either goes horribly wrong.

750
00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:21,920
Speaker 2: Right.

751
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 5: You look at their last six matches, they've got three

752
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 5: that were five nil or worse because there's two five

753
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:28,320
Speaker 5: nils and then the six.

754
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,880
Speaker 3: Nil a hilarious.

755
00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 5: Yeah, they're they're insane. Then they then they earned a

756
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:37,000
Speaker 5: just a weird draw against Bournemouth. In their last match

757
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 5: before the break, they beat Newton Town and I thought

758
00:36:39,239 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 5: that was well earned. A couple of weeks before that

759
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 5: it was a draw against west Ham like. So the

760
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 5: point is they're picking up more points now than they

761
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 5: were before a while there came in tacking bottom, but

762
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 5: is that enough against the Fulham team that you know

763
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:58,319
Speaker 5: is in decent forms three or four. We've talked about that.

764
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 5: The defensive numbers have been much better. They are. You

765
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:03,279
Speaker 5: look at the schedule too. It's not like they just

766
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 5: like beat up on tough teams, right. They beat United

767
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 5: in a crazy game, then they shut up Brightoned three nil,

768
00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,520
Speaker 5: dropped one to a tough Wolves team and then shut

769
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:17,440
Speaker 5: out Tottenham three nil. So I do think like the

770
00:37:17,560 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 5: numbers is tempting on Sheffield United at home, but it's

771
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:23,439
Speaker 5: still Sheffield United BJ.

772
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm close. I'm getting I'm close to actually betting

773
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,360
Speaker 1: on them. I just don't know if I can do it,

774
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 1: because I think Fulham's just actually an improved team now

775
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 1: that they are not just the low block transitional Fulham

776
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,759
Speaker 1: like they're trying to press, They're trying to play more transitionally.

777
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,719
Speaker 1: And they have a great striker in Muniez. Now he's

778
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 1: so much better than Jumenez and it makes actually Fulham

779
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 1: a very like somewhat attractive offensive team versus having just

780
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:54,600
Speaker 1: a pit or a hole that the ball goes to.

781
00:37:54,719 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: Right with me, it's harsh, but it's the truth comparatively

782
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: to what have been.

783
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 3: I mean, he had those two games though, I know.

784
00:38:03,400 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 6: Those two games we'll never forget about.

785
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:07,520
Speaker 3: I'm concerned, like, is this also the same Are we

786
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 3: not just doing the same thing where it's like this

787
00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:11,919
Speaker 3: guy who like kind of stunk for the every time

788
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 3: he saw him, has like a three or four hot

789
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 3: run and we're like, oh, now Fulham has a striker

790
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 3: and we're like, well, wait a minute, who is this

791
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 3: guy before this, Like we never heard of him. He

792
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:22,799
Speaker 3: comes out of nowhere. Yeah, as well for a month.

793
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: Well you know, the point maybe is that maybe he

794
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 1: might struggle him if they have to play decent defenses.

795
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: But this is not a decent defense that he's facing.

796
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 1: It's actually a very horrible defense that he's trying to

797
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 1: face here. So yeah, I don't just pass. I'm just

798
00:38:38,640 --> 00:38:39,120
Speaker 1: going to pass.

799
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 4: Just I want to read off. This is really funny.

800
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:45,640
Speaker 4: I'm want to read off. Sheffield home matches since Christmas?

801
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 6: Please do.

802
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:50,520
Speaker 3: They played Lootontown Boxing Day, lost three to home. Should

803
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 3: have won that game. Yeah, they played west Ham. Remember

804
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 3: that was the game when west Ham didn't have anybody.

805
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 3: They had no Cutis, no Pakata, no Antonio, no Bowen,

806
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:01,719
Speaker 3: none of them played ended two to two. Remember that

807
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 3: was the crazy game of Coppage time.

808
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 4: Penalty.

809
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 6: Yep.

810
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 4: Then they played Brighton and the Cup lost five to two.

811
00:39:08,680 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 4: So that's uh, that's.

812
00:39:09,800 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 3: Ten goals in three games. So you'd figure, all right,

813
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 3: they got to tighten it up at the back. Since then,

814
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 3: they lost five no at home Novilla, five no at

815
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 3: home to Brighton and six no at home Arsenal.

816
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 4: That is their last three home results.

817
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 3: So they've now conceded twenty six goals in six home

818
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 3: matches in all competitions.

819
00:39:25,160 --> 00:39:28,120
Speaker 5: Thinking about over then for thinking about it, and still

820
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 5: we got to get them. I think this is it.

821
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:31,879
Speaker 4: And the total is only two and a half for whatever.

822
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,839
Speaker 1: God, there's a minus. There's a minus one forty three

823
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:37,319
Speaker 1: out there on an over two and a half. Oh,

824
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,400
Speaker 1: you can play three at a good decent plus number.

825
00:39:39,600 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 1: Last match ended things two ended three to one with

826
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 1: about so close to three expected goals.

827
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 4: And that's and here's the other thing.

828
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 3: This is where this is where I think it's underrated

829
00:39:47,560 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 3: with Sheffield and Newton right now, so they started with

830
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:51,919
Speaker 3: the two worst teams in the league, but they both

831
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 3: have a ton of injuries.

832
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,439
Speaker 6: We do, yeah, get second, it's really bad.

833
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 3: It's like the poor get poor in the way with

834
00:39:58,520 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 3: this these two teams right now where it's like if

835
00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 3: they were starting with championship level defenders, they're now down

836
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:03,759
Speaker 3: to backup.

837
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:04,680
Speaker 4: Championship level defenders.

838
00:40:04,800 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 3: And that's why I think you're seeing Luton play these games.

839
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 3: You know, they don't have Premier League defenders, they're not

840
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:14,200
Speaker 3: even close, so they're just trying to go for it

841
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:16,480
Speaker 3: and try to beat team three three, four to three,

842
00:40:17,080 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 3: and that's how you end up blowing a three goal

843
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 3: lead to Bournemouth.

844
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 5: Right And I think that that is actually good segue

845
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 5: to talk about Luton Town because I think that, I mean,

846
00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:31,240
Speaker 5: what team do you think is most conducive to playing

847
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 5: that style in the Premier League or wants to play

848
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:36,600
Speaker 5: that style more than Tottenham who are minus five hundred

849
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:40,400
Speaker 5: at home. Lowton is a ten to one underdog traveling

850
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 5: and the draw here is seven to one. This this

851
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:51,520
Speaker 5: match feels like you can have a football you know,

852
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 5: a big ten score line to it. Like you said, Anthony,

853
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 5: Lutontown has been playing some insane matches of late. Their

854
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 5: less ten matches have featured forty two goals.

855
00:41:03,520 --> 00:41:04,400
Speaker 4: Over every game.

856
00:41:04,640 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 5: Fair and but here's my favorite part. So it's actually

857
00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 5: they're actually underperforming compared to their expected goals. When you

858
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,840
Speaker 5: total right like it's it's their expected goals in those matches,

859
00:41:16,920 --> 00:41:20,960
Speaker 5: total are hovering right around forty four or forty three,

860
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:26,239
Speaker 5: it should say. So that is a beautiful, beautiful thing.

861
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 5: It's a joy to watch a relegation team just do

862
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 5: this and it's brave. It's fun. That's why everybody loves them.

863
00:41:33,400 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 5: This match certainly sets up for more of the same.

864
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 5: I had someone once when you know, when I was

865
00:41:39,960 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 5: first starting betting, I was betting boxing. Someone's like, the

866
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 5: one bet you always want to have exposure to in

867
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 5: big boxing matches is the thing that you think is

868
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:53,160
Speaker 5: least the least likely outcome because it will always be

869
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:57,359
Speaker 5: the number will always, you know, and be inflated, whether

870
00:41:57,400 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 5: it's a first round knockout or a fight between two

871
00:42:00,040 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 5: heavy weights to go the distance that they're knockout artists.

872
00:42:05,280 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 5: For this one, that would be the nil nil. I

873
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 5: don't know if I've seen I don't know if I've

874
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 5: seen a nil nil this high. I don't think I've

875
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 5: ever seen a nil nil this high in the in

876
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,880
Speaker 5: a Premier League match twenty eight to one.

877
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:21,080
Speaker 1: Okay, we are approaching and you guys can correct me

878
00:42:21,080 --> 00:42:23,279
Speaker 1: if I'm wrong. I have never seen a Premier League

879
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:25,279
Speaker 1: total at four. Have you guys seen one?

880
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:30,080
Speaker 3: There was a Liverpool Leicster game, that's true. There might

881
00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:34,120
Speaker 3: be that was three seven five juiced over.

882
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 2: That's what's right now.

883
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 4: Liverpool lost one nil.

884
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I remember the match, Yes, I remember that match.

885
00:42:42,840 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 3: I think they had about thirty rind shots, like eighty

886
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:46,880
Speaker 3: six box entries.

887
00:42:47,000 --> 00:42:49,040
Speaker 4: It was like one of those games.

888
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, and that was pandemic stuff too, I believe right,

889
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 1: I think it was.

890
00:42:53,640 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 4: Yeah.

891
00:42:54,000 --> 00:42:55,640
Speaker 3: There was also one I think they played the end

892
00:42:55,640 --> 00:42:58,439
Speaker 3: of two to one where I had under three seven

893
00:42:58,560 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 3: five and it was just not very fun sweat like

894
00:43:00,600 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 3: it was. Yeah, we got there. Yeah, So we'll have

895
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 3: to pull that up in the bet labsatday.

896
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:11,879
Speaker 1: So if you fall in the app, I've already bet

897
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 1: over three and a half at minus one ten and

898
00:43:13,320 --> 00:43:15,359
Speaker 1: the numbers long gone and I wouldn't play over three

899
00:43:15,360 --> 00:43:17,040
Speaker 1: and a half at minus one forty five right now.

900
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 1: But here's what I want to highlight, and Anthony kind

901
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 1: of mentioned it with the injury situation, here's what's going

902
00:43:21,040 --> 00:43:23,520
Speaker 1: on with Lutontown and maybe why they're playing this cocaine

903
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,600
Speaker 1: ball right, So as of right, now going into this match,

904
00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:31,239
Speaker 1: the Ponzu, Sambu, La Kanga and Marvelous Nakamba are all

905
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,439
Speaker 1: probably going to miss this one. Those are their only

906
00:43:33,440 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 1: three defensive midfielders that they have on the roster, so

907
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:38,840
Speaker 1: there's no ball stopping in the middle. It's just Ross Barkley.

908
00:43:39,080 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: That's That's basically it. That's all they have, or they

909
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:44,800
Speaker 1: have some like Championship League one type of holding midfielder

910
00:43:44,840 --> 00:43:47,080
Speaker 1: to actually stop them. Right then you look at their

911
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 1: back line. Lockleyer's obviously out for the season, Mari Bell

912
00:43:51,480 --> 00:43:54,279
Speaker 1: and gabrielle O show are both out as well, so

913
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: they're on a fourth choice center back of Freese Perk.

914
00:43:57,320 --> 00:43:59,359
Speaker 1: So what else are they supposed to do? Like, they

915
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 1: can't just sit in the low defensive block, They'll just

916
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 1: get punished time and time again. So they have to

917
00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 1: press high. They got to go man to man and

918
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:07,240
Speaker 1: they just got to go for it, like they don't

919
00:44:07,239 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 1: really have another choice but to do that. And something

920
00:44:09,120 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 1: I've been saying for many many weeks now, but this

921
00:44:11,400 --> 00:44:13,439
Speaker 1: matchup actually sets up pretty good for them to score.

922
00:44:13,440 --> 00:44:15,879
Speaker 1: And it's why you know, if you missed the over

923
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:17,600
Speaker 1: three and a half at least number I you know,

924
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 1: over two and a half and both team to score

925
00:44:19,440 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 1: the Dubundo special is minus one fifty right now, which

926
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:25,640
Speaker 1: I think is a little low because I mean, the

927
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 1: way Tottenham likes to build up is mostly van Evn's

928
00:44:28,600 --> 00:44:30,479
Speaker 1: available for this match, he's not. It's a big loss

929
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 1: for them. But Tottam obviously likes to build up into

930
00:44:33,280 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 1: two three five. So what they do is they concede

931
00:44:35,280 --> 00:44:38,520
Speaker 1: space in wide areas well. That's the only place that

932
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 1: Lowton Town creates their chances from. It's from crosses and

933
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:45,080
Speaker 1: set pieces. So if Tom's gonna conceive that area and

934
00:44:45,120 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: play a very aggressive high line like Luton's gonna have

935
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 1: chances on the break here to definitely create maybe a

936
00:44:49,520 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 1: couple of chances in the Tottam defense you know, has

937
00:44:53,040 --> 00:44:57,040
Speaker 1: been essentially just held up by if Vandaven's hamstring is

938
00:44:57,080 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: healthy or Vicario's shot stopping. That's basically it. So uh yeah,

939
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 1: I over to an Apple team to score is minus

940
00:45:05,880 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 1: one fifty. That's what I like for this one. Yeah,

941
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: I just I feel bad for loot Intown because like

942
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 1: they just they don't have another option. So this is

943
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 1: gonna be if you're tuning in because by the way

944
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,400
Speaker 1: love the way the Premier League scheduled out this Saturday,

945
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:22,359
Speaker 1: of all these matches, I think it's beautiful. Three four

946
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 1: different time windows. If you're watching any match in the

947
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern window, just as a neutral, I think

948
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 1: this is the one you gotta circle and you gotta watch.

949
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 1: And then after that, obviously you know you can watch

950
00:45:33,160 --> 00:45:37,239
Speaker 1: Everton implode at on the South coast. But this one's

951
00:45:37,239 --> 00:45:37,800
Speaker 1: gonna be fun.

952
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:41,839
Speaker 3: So here's Looton away from home against good teams. Four

953
00:45:41,920 --> 00:45:45,839
Speaker 3: to Brighton, three to Chelsea, three to Villa only, one

954
00:45:45,880 --> 00:45:50,920
Speaker 3: to United, three to Brentford, three to Brentford, Forlida Liverpool

955
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 3: and Forida Newcastle. They have not gone to Arsenal, they

956
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 3: have not gone to Tottenham, they have not gone to City.

957
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 3: That is three of their next four matches.

958
00:45:56,920 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, so they're still by the way minus one fifty'd

959
00:46:02,239 --> 00:46:03,480
Speaker 1: be relegated. Is still out there.

960
00:46:03,800 --> 00:46:04,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think it's worth it.

961
00:46:05,239 --> 00:46:08,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're not getting results. I don't think they're getting

962
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:10,440
Speaker 3: any results from their away matches.

963
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 5: They're getting nil nil. They're getting the nil nil here

964
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 5: after that.

965
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:17,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, after that they do get Everton at home, so.

966
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, we have a nil nil ron Robin coming up, Michael,

967
00:46:23,160 --> 00:46:25,200
Speaker 1: if we've got we've got City.

968
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 3: Arsenal weekend coming back from the break.

969
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:36,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, okay, last Premier League match a touch on here

970
00:46:36,120 --> 00:46:39,920
Speaker 5: is Villa and Wolves Villa minus sixty seven. Yeah, and

971
00:46:40,080 --> 00:46:43,560
Speaker 5: uh Wolves are banged up though they're four to one

972
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:45,920
Speaker 5: and the draw here is plus three thirty three. We

973
00:46:45,920 --> 00:46:48,080
Speaker 5: we talked a lot about Wolves being a great team

974
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,040
Speaker 5: to punch up and I'm still a little tempted because

975
00:46:50,040 --> 00:46:52,200
Speaker 5: it's a big number, and I do think that they

976
00:46:52,239 --> 00:46:54,960
Speaker 5: are a team that is, you're just like greater than

977
00:46:54,960 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 5: the sum of its part. So some injuries, obviously key

978
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:02,879
Speaker 5: ones up top are no bueno. But I think if

979
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 5: there's still more Villa money to come as those injuries

980
00:47:06,719 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 5: become more pronounced and like known, I'll probably bet Wolves.

981
00:47:12,600 --> 00:47:15,840
Speaker 5: But what say you, Anthony, Well, they.

982
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 3: Gave up over three xt sheet of Coventry and the

983
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 3: Cup at home last week.

984
00:47:20,040 --> 00:47:21,479
Speaker 4: They or two weeks ago.

985
00:47:21,640 --> 00:47:26,279
Speaker 3: They still are without Chen, Hayangi Chen and Neto and

986
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:28,279
Speaker 3: it looks like Netto might be done for the year,

987
00:47:28,960 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 3: so big loss chans out for another three weeks and

988
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 3: then Kunya is questionable listed, so they think he's got

989
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 3: a chance to play this match. But still, you know,

990
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 3: Villa took some money. If they're south of Linus one fifty,

991
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 3: I'll bet them here at home. I think it's a

992
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 3: good matchup for them. You know, they're not going to

993
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:55,839
Speaker 3: have as many issues in defensive transition if they're playing

994
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:59,200
Speaker 3: a team doesn't have good transition attackers, and I think that.

995
00:47:59,320 --> 00:48:01,080
Speaker 3: You know, the biggest thing for Villa right now is

996
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 3: just how poor they looked without McGinn, and that's certainly alarming.

997
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:09,320
Speaker 3: It's like kind of a nobody wants top four situation brewing,

998
00:48:09,320 --> 00:48:12,840
Speaker 3: although you know fifth is gonna get Champions League. But

999
00:48:13,120 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 3: if this is below minus one fifty, I'm happy to

1000
00:48:14,880 --> 00:48:16,279
Speaker 3: fade Wolves again. I think we're kind of at the

1001
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 3: top of the market, near the top of the market

1002
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,759
Speaker 3: on them. The problem is that this line has taken

1003
00:48:20,800 --> 00:48:22,200
Speaker 3: money since I put it in the sheet that I

1004
00:48:22,239 --> 00:48:23,920
Speaker 3: was going to bet Villa, So now I'm going to

1005
00:48:23,960 --> 00:48:27,120
Speaker 3: probably end up passing. Minus one fifty is kind of

1006
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 3: my bypoint.

1007
00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 5: All right. Actually forgot to touch on Brentford and you

1008
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:35,680
Speaker 5: know I forgot the Super Bowl. Yeah, this is uh,

1009
00:48:35,840 --> 00:48:38,120
Speaker 5: I can't you know why, because I saw at the

1010
00:48:38,239 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 5: end it's again obviously feature prominently at the end of

1011
00:48:40,719 --> 00:48:42,799
Speaker 5: our show, as as Brentford always does.

1012
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 4: But we can we save it for the end.

1013
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:45,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, we can save it.

1014
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:46,359
Speaker 2: Let's do it.

1015
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:48,080
Speaker 4: Let's talk about it later.

1016
00:48:48,239 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 5: Yeah, so let's move on to the bonybody.

1017
00:48:50,680 --> 00:48:52,920
Speaker 4: Listen to this show. Knows who were betting anyway, exactly.

1018
00:48:53,320 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 1: I just say one little thing before we get there.

1019
00:48:55,120 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: This was this This match last year was probably the

1020
00:48:57,719 --> 00:48:59,960
Speaker 1: most satisfying Premier League match that I've ever watched.

1021
00:49:01,000 --> 00:49:02,919
Speaker 3: Was that the first one of the season or third match?

1022
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 1: For the four nil? Yeah, the most satisfying I think

1023
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:08,719
Speaker 1: I've ever right out of the gates that was ever

1024
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:09,959
Speaker 1: watching a Premier League match?

1025
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 3: Hey, it was was drunk in goal?

1026
00:49:12,480 --> 00:49:17,880
Speaker 5: Yeah yeah, all right, Bundesliga, we are going to see

1027
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:22,040
Speaker 5: Byron and Dortmund Anthony and that's where your favorite bet

1028
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:23,719
Speaker 5: in Germany comes in.

1029
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 3: Speaking of totals at four, the classicers at four, I

1030
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:29,320
Speaker 3: mean it's usually three and a half.

1031
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:30,000
Speaker 4: Now it's four.

1032
00:49:30,520 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 3: I get it because like Dortmund doesn't really defend and uh,

1033
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:37,359
Speaker 3: you know, Byron have scored thirteen goals in their last

1034
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 3: two league matches.

1035
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 6: They're back.

1036
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 3: But I can't get to four. I'm at like three seven,

1037
00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 3: So it's just puer numbers play for me. I'm going

1038
00:49:44,480 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 3: to dive more into the matchup for the preview umberating

1039
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,319
Speaker 3: on Friday head of the match on Saturday. It's kind

1040
00:49:50,320 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 3: of like the least exciting, dear classicer we've had in

1041
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:55,160
Speaker 3: a while, because I don't know, the title race is

1042
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 3: kind of over the top four races. Somewhat interesting for

1043
00:49:59,280 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 3: for Dortmund, but you know, Bayron and Dortmann both have

1044
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 3: big matches coming up the Champions League, and I think

1045
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:07,359
Speaker 3: this is a good kind of measuring stick to see

1046
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 3: what they look like ahead of those matches, where the

1047
00:50:10,320 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 3: market is seeming pretty hard against both with Arsenal and

1048
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:16,160
Speaker 3: at Letti taking money. Uh so the market doesn't believe

1049
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:17,799
Speaker 3: much in these German teams. But we'll see what they

1050
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 3: look like against each other.

1051
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 5: What do you got, bj Yeah?

1052
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 1: For me, uh Augsburg again minus one thirty against Cologne,

1053
00:50:27,239 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 1: you know, kind of just a repeat of what it

1054
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:29,399
Speaker 1: was last week.

1055
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:30,359
Speaker 2: We got the win on them.

1056
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 1: You know, they were lucked out getting a red card

1057
00:50:32,120 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 1: before the international break, but they're just they've changed to

1058
00:50:34,960 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 1: a different formation that allows them to attack transitionally better

1059
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: through the middle of the pitch. They're holding a lot

1060
00:50:39,640 --> 00:50:41,560
Speaker 1: of possession against these teams in the bottom half of

1061
00:50:41,560 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: the table, and the market just continues to think that

1062
00:50:44,600 --> 00:50:47,799
Speaker 1: this Cologne team's gonna bounce back somehow and get out

1063
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:49,880
Speaker 1: of this relegation fight. But if it wasn't for Darmstadt,

1064
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,360
Speaker 1: they'd have the worst expected gold differential in the Bundesliga

1065
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:54,400
Speaker 1: and they've only won the expected goals battle and what

1066
00:50:54,480 --> 00:50:56,880
Speaker 1: the four of their matches this season, So minus one

1067
00:50:56,880 --> 00:50:58,719
Speaker 1: thirty is an awfully cheap price for a team that's

1068
00:50:58,719 --> 00:51:00,640
Speaker 1: on the rise. So like Augsburg my one thirty.

1069
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:06,360
Speaker 5: Okay, let's move over to Spain next BJ What do

1070
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:07,520
Speaker 5: you got.

1071
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:10,439
Speaker 1: Well, we're gonna fade Derron again, this time with Rial

1072
00:51:10,480 --> 00:51:13,480
Speaker 1: bettis uh the biggest thing in this match. You know,

1073
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:16,360
Speaker 1: we've talked about Drona a ton this season because they're obviously,

1074
00:51:16,680 --> 00:51:18,120
Speaker 1: you know, in third place in La League and it's

1075
00:51:18,160 --> 00:51:21,879
Speaker 1: been a surprise. But they clearly have played a little

1076
00:51:21,880 --> 00:51:24,640
Speaker 1: bit more conservatively in possession. And I think what's been

1077
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 1: happening as well is teams. You know, I watched a

1078
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,760
Speaker 1: little bit of the Gaitafe match, but teams are willing

1079
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 1: more willing to press them instead of just sitting in

1080
00:51:33,800 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 1: a defensive block and just like getting overloaded and everything.

1081
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:40,560
Speaker 1: So you know, Real Bettis is a very good defensive

1082
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:43,440
Speaker 1: structural team that does play a little bit passively. But

1083
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:48,920
Speaker 1: the biggest thing with Real Bettis is their best offensive player.

1084
00:51:49,320 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 1: Eastco has missed five matches and he's back for this

1085
00:51:52,120 --> 00:51:54,880
Speaker 1: one now after the international break. He is incredibly important

1086
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:59,560
Speaker 1: to them because he leads them in every single offensive

1087
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:02,279
Speaker 1: category right that they have, and without their attack is

1088
00:52:02,360 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 1: just absolutely nothing. So I generally think that Girona is

1089
00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:10,200
Speaker 1: still getting a little overvalued here in the market, So

1090
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 1: I like re all bet it's plus a half at

1091
00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:12,680
Speaker 1: plus one twenty.

1092
00:52:13,480 --> 00:52:15,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I didn't quite get there on the b TWTs

1093
00:52:15,560 --> 00:52:18,920
Speaker 3: first half for that one, but I'm gonna you know,

1094
00:52:18,920 --> 00:52:20,400
Speaker 3: we talked about you just talk about Catafe.

1095
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 4: I bet they're over.

1096
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 3: When they played Girona last two weeks ago, didn't quite

1097
00:52:24,480 --> 00:52:26,640
Speaker 3: get there. Savilla now gets them over two and a

1098
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,760
Speaker 3: half is plus one thirty. Savilla's attack has been trending

1099
00:52:29,840 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 3: upward and the series has been you know, bagging goals

1100
00:52:32,440 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 3: for them, and Gatafe has played more open style this

1101
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:37,520
Speaker 3: year than past year. So you know, I have this

1102
00:52:37,640 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 3: pretty close to two and a half just pure XG projection,

1103
00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:43,000
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take a shot on over two and

1104
00:52:43,040 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 3: a half plus one thirty. I've been playing more La

1105
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 3: legal overs than ever this year. It's kind of awful,

1106
00:52:47,520 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 3: and I never like to watch the games because they're

1107
00:52:49,480 --> 00:52:52,360
Speaker 3: incredibly boring, but I do like the over two and

1108
00:52:52,400 --> 00:52:55,160
Speaker 3: a half there, and it's kind of similar in the

1109
00:52:55,160 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 3: opposite sense that you know, I don't like watching the

1110
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,800
Speaker 3: Italian matches either because they all end, you know, no

1111
00:53:00,080 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 3: nail these days, but under two and a half or

1112
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 3: so swallow Uderinese for me minus one fifteen, Like these

1113
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 3: are two just dire attacks. Udines has got a pretty

1114
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:12,759
Speaker 3: good defensive, you know, set up this year and the

1115
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 3: market opens these Udinese totals way too high consistently and

1116
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,000
Speaker 3: they usually get bet down. It's been a pretty good

1117
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 3: COLV moneymaker over the last few months. In an Italian

1118
00:53:23,440 --> 00:53:26,800
Speaker 3: relegation race that I have some thoughts on. Once Bja

1119
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:28,320
Speaker 3: talks about who he's betting.

1120
00:53:29,000 --> 00:53:33,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, well it's a relegation six point Caglary against Verona,

1121
00:53:33,680 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 1: and I think what we always have to look at

1122
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:40,320
Speaker 1: it says there are a few unique teams throughout Europe,

1123
00:53:40,360 --> 00:53:44,799
Speaker 1: you know. Majorca Las Palmas. Cagliari, if you don't know,

1124
00:53:45,080 --> 00:53:48,080
Speaker 1: is on an island on the Italian coast, and they've

1125
00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:51,040
Speaker 1: played much better on that island this season. Plus four

1126
00:53:51,040 --> 00:53:53,040
Speaker 1: point six expected Goldfrench will have one of the worst

1127
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:55,200
Speaker 1: actually differentials away from home, but this match is on

1128
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:59,400
Speaker 1: the island. They have changed. Claudia Rinieri is their manager.

1129
00:53:59,440 --> 00:54:01,880
Speaker 1: He's changed them to a four to four one one

1130
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,399
Speaker 1: give them more defensive solidity. They've been better recently, only

1131
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:06,279
Speaker 1: had five and a half expected goals in their last

1132
00:54:06,360 --> 00:54:09,439
Speaker 1: five matches. They've also been a deadly transition team this year,

1133
00:54:09,480 --> 00:54:12,279
Speaker 1: second and final third to box entry conversion rate, and

1134
00:54:12,320 --> 00:54:16,400
Speaker 1: they're facing just a a got awful of her own offense.

1135
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 1: They have not created an over one expected goal in

1136
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:23,239
Speaker 1: seven straight matches, only averaging point seven to one non

1137
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:27,319
Speaker 1: penalty actually for ninety this season. Previous meeting, Verona did

1138
00:54:27,360 --> 00:54:32,040
Speaker 1: win too nothing, but Caglary got a red card in

1139
00:54:32,080 --> 00:54:35,440
Speaker 1: the fifty first minute and then everything fell apart. Varona

1140
00:54:35,440 --> 00:54:37,879
Speaker 1: scored both their goals, still didn't create over one expected goal.

1141
00:54:38,719 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 1: But I have Caglary projected as a minus one of

1142
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:44,360
Speaker 1: six favorites, so I like them at plus one fifteen

1143
00:54:44,400 --> 00:54:44,880
Speaker 1: on the island.

1144
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 3: Well, you know we were asked about this in the

1145
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:50,879
Speaker 3: discord and we'll kind of I already.

1146
00:54:50,600 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 2: Have my bet.

1147
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:52,080
Speaker 1: It's Verona and I have.

1148
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:54,399
Speaker 2: That's where I'm at.

1149
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:56,359
Speaker 4: Verona for me was the team as well.

1150
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 3: I think when you look at the board, so uh

1151
00:54:59,480 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 3: d the odds board up right now, I.

1152
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:02,560
Speaker 1: Can pull it up.

1153
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, So there's three teams basically that there's one team

1154
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:09,560
Speaker 3: that's relegated. Sowarny Town has done They're at fourteen points,

1155
00:55:09,840 --> 00:55:12,399
Speaker 3: so Swallow's at twenty three. Frozen on a twenty four,

1156
00:55:12,800 --> 00:55:16,319
Speaker 3: Emply twenty five calorie twenty six, Verona twenty six.

1157
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:17,560
Speaker 4: For me, that's the crop.

1158
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 3: You know, Leche could get dragged down into it. Their

1159
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:23,080
Speaker 3: numbers are pretty bad, but I think they're defensively good

1160
00:55:23,120 --> 00:55:25,840
Speaker 3: enough to stay stay above that fray. They also have

1161
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,680
Speaker 3: a couple extra points. Ud Nanse for me is clearly

1162
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 3: a tier above, so I'm not going to throw them

1163
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:32,719
Speaker 3: in that race. Same with Genoa. So when you look

1164
00:55:32,719 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 3: at the picture, you have essentially five teams for three spots. Verona, Kylerie,

1165
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:41,840
Speaker 3: Emperlely frozen on so swollow. When you look at the

1166
00:55:41,880 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 3: worst attack by far is Verona and they just lost

1167
00:55:46,080 --> 00:55:49,600
Speaker 3: in gongs to Napoli. He got sold in the January window.

1168
00:55:49,360 --> 00:55:51,360
Speaker 2: And a lot of people got sold in January for

1169
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 2: that exactly.

1170
00:55:52,600 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 4: So most broke of those teams.

1171
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:56,719
Speaker 3: And thus, you know, the money situation has been a

1172
00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:58,800
Speaker 3: problem for Verona for a couple of years now really,

1173
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 3: you know, since Simeoni's kid left, they have really struggled

1174
00:56:02,600 --> 00:56:04,359
Speaker 3: for goals, and he ran really good for a couple

1175
00:56:04,400 --> 00:56:07,239
Speaker 3: of years. And he's also of course in Napoli now too,

1176
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 3: so they're relying on twenty nine year old French striker

1177
00:56:11,480 --> 00:56:16,120
Speaker 3: Thomas Henry to score, Omri to score. He's got three

1178
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:19,920
Speaker 3: goals for them this year. Durich, who's thirty three, has

1179
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 3: scored five goals. Like, there is just no goal scoring

1180
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:25,320
Speaker 3: on this team. It's a really, really bad lineup. Andre

1181
00:56:25,400 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 3: Duda is probably their best player in terms of just

1182
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:30,840
Speaker 3: chance creation for other people. He's been decent, he's been around,

1183
00:56:32,440 --> 00:56:35,200
Speaker 3: you know, had had success in Italy. But you look

1184
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:37,880
Speaker 3: at the rest of the board, I think they're clearly

1185
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 3: right there with the rest of the relegation picture. And

1186
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:42,840
Speaker 3: then I gets kind of took a quick glance at

1187
00:56:42,840 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 3: the schedules and trying to gauge these schedules is tough.

1188
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 3: But they're gonna go to Calgary, They're gonna go to Atalanta,

1189
00:56:49,440 --> 00:56:52,399
Speaker 3: They're gonna go to Lazzio, and then they have inter

1190
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:57,200
Speaker 3: Fiorentina Torino. Also, like they have the toughest schedule of

1191
00:56:57,239 --> 00:57:01,560
Speaker 3: the remaining teams in that picture where they're gonna play,

1192
00:57:02,040 --> 00:57:04,279
Speaker 3: you know, for upper class teams, they have to go

1193
00:57:04,320 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 3: to Calgary this weekend. I think it's a really tough

1194
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 3: pull for Verona to stay in this league. You know,

1195
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:13,120
Speaker 3: they can survive on numbers, but it's gonna be tough.

1196
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:15,799
Speaker 3: So Swallow is only three points behind them for us,

1197
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 3: you know, in A two, So yeah, I think I

1198
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:20,120
Speaker 3: think the bad is Verona three to one.

1199
00:57:20,240 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 6: They are three to one to be relegated right now.

1200
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:25,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, and we have we have Sournyitana three to one

1201
00:57:25,720 --> 00:57:31,440
Speaker 3: right correct and finally down So yeah, so Swallow for

1202
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:33,280
Speaker 3: me is the other team. They ran really good with

1203
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 3: penalties early and they're really really bad and they have

1204
00:57:37,360 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 3: a friendlier schedule so you know, they're gonna get Cayorie

1205
00:57:42,000 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 3: and they still play Sournyitana, they still get Lecha at home,

1206
00:57:46,360 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 3: so their schedule is not as hard, but they've also

1207
00:57:49,840 --> 00:57:53,000
Speaker 3: been largely unable to create any chances whatsoever in the

1208
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 3: last month. So I think those are the two teams.

1209
00:57:55,680 --> 00:57:57,280
Speaker 3: If you just can't score, you're in deep shit.

1210
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:02,320
Speaker 5: Okay, that's a good way to look at it, a

1211
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:03,000
Speaker 5: good way to look.

1212
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 2: At this, this podcast and.

1213
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:08,400
Speaker 6: Betting in general. Like, right, if you just can't.

1214
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:10,600
Speaker 4: Score, well, you can try to get by on defense.

1215
00:58:10,600 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 3: But the way Siria is this year only like sou

1216
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:18,480
Speaker 3: Aitana and Frosty know, the like the truly terrible defenses

1217
00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:21,400
Speaker 3: everybody else is. It's just like a low of that league.

1218
00:58:21,480 --> 00:58:24,600
Speaker 3: So there are going to naturally be some draws. It's

1219
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:26,200
Speaker 3: just like, can you get enough goal? Can you like

1220
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 3: sneak a goal or two to get enough wins? And

1221
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:31,000
Speaker 3: I don't think those two teams can do it. So

1222
00:58:31,440 --> 00:58:36,240
Speaker 3: I'm a believer in Kyrie. I'm a believer in emply

1223
00:58:36,400 --> 00:58:39,040
Speaker 3: to get out, and I'm not a believer in Frona

1224
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:40,200
Speaker 3: or so swallow.

1225
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 5: Okay, real quick, we'll do league. Oh, you guys are

1226
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 5: on the same side.

1227
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 1: Bjay Friday Afternoon Lil and Lons. You know, a little

1228
00:58:49,280 --> 00:58:51,600
Speaker 1: negative aggressions coming back here for Lons. They lost three

1229
00:58:51,640 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 1: to one to Nie right before the international break and

1230
00:58:56,880 --> 00:58:59,000
Speaker 1: lil is just you know, they've they've been in a

1231
00:58:59,240 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 1: really impressed of tactical team, mainly with what they're able

1232
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:05,840
Speaker 1: to do at a possession. Like I was doing a

1233
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:07,760
Speaker 1: little bit of research on them and studying them over

1234
00:59:07,800 --> 00:59:10,920
Speaker 1: the break that they tend to press out of a

1235
00:59:11,000 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 1: four to four, which is something that Vincent Company was

1236
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:15,760
Speaker 1: trying with Burnley early on in the Premier League and

1237
00:59:15,800 --> 00:59:16,439
Speaker 1: it didn't go well.

1238
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:18,240
Speaker 2: But the theory.

1239
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 1: Behind it is is if you pressed with the front foor,

1240
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:21,600
Speaker 1: you forced a lot of long balls. And they have

1241
00:59:22,040 --> 00:59:24,320
Speaker 1: a couple of really athletic center backs. You know, ro

1242
00:59:24,520 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 1: is going to be a a hot commodity this summer

1243
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:28,880
Speaker 1: of the eighteen year old but they're really good at

1244
00:59:28,880 --> 00:59:31,000
Speaker 1: winning those aerial duels, so they just forced teams into

1245
00:59:31,040 --> 00:59:32,880
Speaker 1: a lot of long balls, which is basically how Lons

1246
00:59:33,240 --> 00:59:35,760
Speaker 1: creates or gets the ball moving forward a lot. So

1247
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:40,480
Speaker 1: they have been really really good out of possession and defensively,

1248
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:43,240
Speaker 1: you know, allowing under one non penalty expected goal. But

1249
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:46,400
Speaker 1: you know in possession they do a really you know,

1250
00:59:46,520 --> 00:59:48,480
Speaker 1: slow build up kind of similar to Brighton, not to

1251
00:59:48,520 --> 00:59:50,960
Speaker 1: the extreme that Brighton does it but they do very

1252
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:53,080
Speaker 1: very slow, and they do a really good job at

1253
00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:55,840
Speaker 1: polling teams at a position to create space, especially like

1254
00:59:55,920 --> 00:59:58,760
Speaker 1: David getting in behind and everything. So and even if

1255
00:59:58,800 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 1: you're just looking at you know, peer, you know they

1256
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:04,040
Speaker 1: have this second best expected goldiffrontial only on since the

1257
01:00:04,040 --> 01:00:06,800
Speaker 1: beginning of December, and Lowns, like we mentioned last week,

1258
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:10,520
Speaker 1: has been running really well defensively because the goals keeper

1259
01:00:10,560 --> 01:00:12,800
Speaker 1: situation has just been really good for them. But he's

1260
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,320
Speaker 1: starting to regress a little bit. So I think it's

1261
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 1: a really good spot here for Lil. I think they're

1262
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:20,160
Speaker 1: undervalued here against Lawns. I like them plus one fifteen.

1263
01:00:20,640 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 5: Anything you need to add, no, all right, love it,

1264
01:00:23,920 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 5: so you two on Lil. Now we go on to

1265
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,200
Speaker 5: our underdogs. As we say, we didn't really talk much

1266
01:00:28,200 --> 01:00:31,160
Speaker 5: about Brentford and United. I've got the conversation started here.

1267
01:00:31,200 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 5: They are my favorite dog this weekend. They are plus

1268
01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:38,600
Speaker 5: two hundred against Manchester United. It's it's not been pretty

1269
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:42,680
Speaker 5: for Brentford at all of late, and the numbers are

1270
01:00:43,040 --> 01:00:45,520
Speaker 5: coming down, but they should have some success against this

1271
01:00:45,560 --> 01:00:50,080
Speaker 5: Manchester United defense. You can basically just take every handicap

1272
01:00:50,080 --> 01:00:52,520
Speaker 5: we've had with with United where we're trying to pick

1273
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:55,920
Speaker 5: on their defense and the injury crisis and the just

1274
01:00:55,960 --> 01:00:58,880
Speaker 5: the general like lack of everybody pulling the rope in

1275
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,840
Speaker 5: the same direction. Against a team like Brentford where that

1276
01:01:01,960 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 5: is supposed to be their strength, it could be a

1277
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:09,000
Speaker 5: pretty big problem. As I said, it's not been pretty

1278
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:13,760
Speaker 5: for Brentford that the defense has been particularly leaky since

1279
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:17,320
Speaker 5: the Festive fixtures. But I do think at home, as

1280
01:01:17,320 --> 01:01:19,640
Speaker 5: an underdog, they should be able to play this number.

1281
01:01:19,760 --> 01:01:23,280
Speaker 5: So I'll take Brentford to get this thing started. Anthony,

1282
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:24,680
Speaker 5: who are you going.

1283
01:01:24,720 --> 01:01:27,560
Speaker 3: With Brian and Wemu back right?

1284
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 6: Yeah?

1285
01:01:29,120 --> 01:01:32,280
Speaker 3: So you know I tweeted a picture of this during

1286
01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 3: the Liverpool United match, but there was a point where

1287
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:36,280
Speaker 3: Liverpool broke through the press. There was just thirty yards

1288
01:01:36,320 --> 01:01:37,360
Speaker 3: to go forward.

1289
01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:39,200
Speaker 2: No defense happens all the time.

1290
01:01:39,080 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, And for Brentford it's just they're going to boot

1291
01:01:41,720 --> 01:01:43,840
Speaker 3: it long, win second balls and attack and I think

1292
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,720
Speaker 3: it's a decent matchup. United attack is showing some real

1293
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 3: life though, so that'll be interesting. Marseille plus two twenty

1294
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:55,240
Speaker 3: in La Classicque at home against PSG. This is an

1295
01:01:55,280 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 3: example where I think you might see less in Bappe

1296
01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:00,320
Speaker 3: than you're used to, because Enrique has been playing this

1297
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:04,600
Speaker 3: weird koy media game slash Stardham sit him with Imbape

1298
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:08,160
Speaker 3: of course when it matters most the Champions League, he's

1299
01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:11,560
Speaker 3: gonna play in Bape, but he's been, you know, starting

1300
01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:13,880
Speaker 3: to prepare them for life after in Bape, and you know,

1301
01:02:13,960 --> 01:02:15,960
Speaker 3: coming back from the break here you might not see

1302
01:02:16,000 --> 01:02:18,600
Speaker 3: as much Killian as you're used to. So I'm gonna

1303
01:02:18,640 --> 01:02:22,360
Speaker 3: go Marseille plus two twenty at home elite defensive metrics. Uh,

1304
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:25,840
Speaker 3: you know, the attack at lags behind, but against the

1305
01:02:25,880 --> 01:02:29,400
Speaker 3: PSG team that they generally give competitive games to. I

1306
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:31,520
Speaker 3: think Marseille is actually a bye team.

1307
01:02:31,400 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 4: For the first time in a while. They've really fallen off.

1308
01:02:33,080 --> 01:02:35,560
Speaker 3: This year in terms of their results, but their performances

1309
01:02:35,560 --> 01:02:36,880
Speaker 3: have been generally comparable.

1310
01:02:37,640 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Elevas plus two fifty at

1311
01:02:41,680 --> 01:02:46,600
Speaker 1: home against Rial Sociodad. You know, Sociodad was a team

1312
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 1: that we obviously love to bet on a lot last year,

1313
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 1: but they just have not been as good, especially offensively.

1314
01:02:51,960 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 1: The offensive number has gone down, the underlying metrics have

1315
01:02:54,320 --> 01:02:56,400
Speaker 1: gone down. They're now close to around and even expected

1316
01:02:56,440 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 1: Goldfroncial team whereas last season, you know, they were in

1317
01:02:58,760 --> 01:03:01,480
Speaker 1: the plus fifteen plus six team range and they're taking

1318
01:03:01,480 --> 01:03:03,240
Speaker 1: on an Ali based team that is one of the

1319
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:05,520
Speaker 1: few teams in the bottom half of La Liga that

1320
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:08,120
Speaker 1: actually has a positive expected gold differential. They played really

1321
01:03:08,160 --> 01:03:10,720
Speaker 1: really well at home this season. They have a really

1322
01:03:10,720 --> 01:03:13,160
Speaker 1: good young striker who was on loan from Athletico Madrid

1323
01:03:13,240 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 1: who can give Realso see that a lot of problems here,

1324
01:03:15,560 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 1: and I generally think that so Sie that is just

1325
01:03:17,720 --> 01:03:20,280
Speaker 1: a little overvalued because of what they've done in the

1326
01:03:20,360 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 1: past comparatively to what they actually have been this season.

1327
01:03:23,200 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 1: So I like Alabas plus two fifteen.

1328
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:26,560
Speaker 5: I think the son is going to come in as

1329
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:31,440
Speaker 5: our shortest underdog parlay of the season because I was

1330
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 5: last week our last and it was uh well, Chelsea

1331
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:38,720
Speaker 5: ended up winning that match in ninety right, but it

1332
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:39,959
Speaker 5: was to those US.

1333
01:03:40,240 --> 01:03:40,760
Speaker 1: More and a half.

1334
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:42,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, but it was Coventry.

1335
01:03:42,600 --> 01:03:44,520
Speaker 4: It was maybe the win of the year. Honestly that

1336
01:03:44,560 --> 01:03:46,000
Speaker 4: game they were up one nil. I was like, oh

1337
01:03:46,080 --> 01:03:47,160
Speaker 4: we got it down to one.

1338
01:03:47,360 --> 01:03:49,520
Speaker 3: Oh my god, because I had them plus one and

1339
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:51,400
Speaker 3: I was just sick to my stomach. And then then

1340
01:03:51,600 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 3: Hajji right with the compa Osburg got the when Osburg

1341
01:03:55,320 --> 01:03:57,640
Speaker 3: pulled it off, and then we got Osburgh want the

1342
01:03:57,720 --> 01:04:01,040
Speaker 3: red cart in and uh yeah, hold it off, and

1343
01:04:01,120 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 3: then and then it was so I wrote it off

1344
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:04,200
Speaker 3: to nil. I was on the train actually up to

1345
01:04:04,240 --> 01:04:07,360
Speaker 3: New York to Action Network HQ, and all of a sudden,

1346
01:04:07,440 --> 01:04:11,200
Speaker 3: my phone starts blowing up with texts because it was

1347
01:04:11,280 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 3: TUE two.

1348
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:15,800
Speaker 2: It's on, it's on, and we're live.

1349
01:04:15,960 --> 01:04:17,440
Speaker 6: And then we were yeah, but you know what, we

1350
01:04:17,520 --> 01:04:18,080
Speaker 6: were not live.

1351
01:04:18,600 --> 01:04:21,160
Speaker 4: We hit two out of three seven times this year now, so.

1352
01:04:21,240 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 6: It's incredible, incredible.

1353
01:04:23,440 --> 01:04:26,000
Speaker 5: Well we'll get them thirty thirty three to one. This

1354
01:04:26,120 --> 01:04:29,640
Speaker 5: one comes in at Coventry City was the when I

1355
01:04:29,720 --> 01:04:31,440
Speaker 5: was eight years old. My family once moved to England

1356
01:04:31,480 --> 01:04:34,160
Speaker 5: and the family that was showing us around took us

1357
01:04:34,200 --> 01:04:36,800
Speaker 5: to Crystal Palace for Coventry City at Selhurst Park when

1358
01:04:36,800 --> 01:04:39,040
Speaker 5: I was an eight year old nineteen ninety eight. Okay,

1359
01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:45,560
Speaker 5: best bets for this massive Premier League weekend coming your way, Anthony.

1360
01:04:45,600 --> 01:04:47,200
Speaker 5: You and I are on the same match, so we'll start.

1361
01:04:47,600 --> 01:04:48,240
Speaker 5: You can go first.

1362
01:04:48,720 --> 01:04:50,600
Speaker 3: I'll go Arsenal City under two and a half at

1363
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:53,080
Speaker 3: plus one fifteen. I just really think this is more

1364
01:04:53,120 --> 01:04:55,040
Speaker 3: of a can't lose than a must win for both teams.

1365
01:04:55,120 --> 01:04:57,560
Speaker 3: We saw the first meeting, We've seen multiple meetings between

1366
01:04:57,600 --> 01:05:01,120
Speaker 3: these two teams when they're at full strength defensively, that

1367
01:05:01,240 --> 01:05:03,080
Speaker 3: it's just going to be a very cag matchup. We

1368
01:05:03,160 --> 01:05:06,080
Speaker 3: know Guardiola has been sitting Doku in favor of a

1369
01:05:06,120 --> 01:05:09,400
Speaker 3: more defensive, more solid lineup in midfield because he knows

1370
01:05:09,480 --> 01:05:11,800
Speaker 3: there are some flaws with this team this year. And

1371
01:05:11,880 --> 01:05:13,320
Speaker 3: I think that all plays out to be just a

1372
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:16,960
Speaker 3: bit of a lower scoring game than maybe the neutrals expecting,

1373
01:05:17,240 --> 01:05:19,360
Speaker 3: although they really shouldn't be that surprised because the first

1374
01:05:19,400 --> 01:05:22,000
Speaker 3: meeting between these two teams no goals point nine to

1375
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:24,200
Speaker 3: x G until about the eighty fifth minute when there

1376
01:05:24,280 --> 01:05:27,440
Speaker 3: was ultimately a breakthrough. You got one goal late. If

1377
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:29,480
Speaker 3: this is one to one going into the second half,

1378
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 3: I'm going to look for some live lenders. I think

1379
01:05:31,800 --> 01:05:33,760
Speaker 3: this plays out to be a low event match that

1380
01:05:34,760 --> 01:05:36,760
Speaker 3: keeps the Premier League title race in a position where

1381
01:05:36,840 --> 01:05:39,280
Speaker 3: nobody is out of it and train the final eight matches.

1382
01:05:39,680 --> 01:05:42,320
Speaker 5: Yep, I'm going to keep walking down that path. I

1383
01:05:42,400 --> 01:05:45,000
Speaker 5: like the draw at plus two eighty. I think that

1384
01:05:45,080 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 5: this thing is just going to be a rock fight

1385
01:05:47,400 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 5: very very much a chess match and two managers adjusting

1386
01:05:52,200 --> 01:05:54,600
Speaker 5: and then adjusting to one another, then over adjusting, and

1387
01:05:54,880 --> 01:05:56,520
Speaker 5: I don't think it's going to have much flow to it,

1388
01:05:57,920 --> 01:06:00,200
Speaker 5: so I think you can play the draw here plus

1389
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:01,880
Speaker 5: to eighty. I think Neil nail at twelve to one

1390
01:06:02,520 --> 01:06:06,200
Speaker 5: is also a decent look. BJ your favorite bet.

1391
01:06:06,720 --> 01:06:10,360
Speaker 1: Brentford plus a half minus one forty five at home

1392
01:06:10,520 --> 01:06:13,400
Speaker 1: against Manchester United. Anthony hit the nail on the head

1393
01:06:13,480 --> 01:06:16,120
Speaker 1: that Manchester United is just a tactically flawed team out

1394
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:19,200
Speaker 1: of possession. They what has happened, and that's what we've

1395
01:06:19,200 --> 01:06:21,680
Speaker 1: been talking about for many weeks now, is that they

1396
01:06:21,840 --> 01:06:25,440
Speaker 1: just pressed with their front attackers and they are so

1397
01:06:25,560 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 1: worried about getting exposed in transition that they're fullbacks and

1398
01:06:28,720 --> 01:06:30,400
Speaker 1: center backs never come up and eight in the press.

1399
01:06:30,480 --> 01:06:33,040
Speaker 1: So that creates when you beat the first line of

1400
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:36,080
Speaker 1: the pressure, just acres of space to go and transition,

1401
01:06:36,160 --> 01:06:39,600
Speaker 1: and that exactly how Brentford plays. Brian and Buemo being

1402
01:06:39,680 --> 01:06:42,280
Speaker 1: backed is so massive for Brentford. He is fifth in

1403
01:06:42,360 --> 01:06:45,480
Speaker 1: the Premier League this season in XG plus XA per

1404
01:06:45,600 --> 01:06:47,800
Speaker 1: ninety minutes. Think about how impressive that is. This is

1405
01:06:47,840 --> 01:06:49,480
Speaker 1: the first time that we're going to see him and

1406
01:06:49,600 --> 01:06:53,240
Speaker 1: Ivan Tony up top together and since a long long

1407
01:06:53,320 --> 01:06:55,840
Speaker 1: time datting all the way to back to last season.

1408
01:06:55,960 --> 01:06:57,760
Speaker 1: So this is a Brentford team that has gone through

1409
01:06:57,800 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 1: a really bad run. During that run, they have a mind.

1410
01:07:00,080 --> 01:07:02,520
Speaker 1: During this last fifteen matches they have a minus sixteen

1411
01:07:03,080 --> 01:07:06,360
Speaker 1: actual gold differential only a minus eight expected gold differentially.

1412
01:07:06,360 --> 01:07:09,320
Speaker 1: They are so overdue for a result. They're playing at

1413
01:07:09,360 --> 01:07:12,439
Speaker 1: home where they've always played better against a Manchester United

1414
01:07:12,480 --> 01:07:16,000
Speaker 1: team that is really flawed and just so overdue for

1415
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:19,400
Speaker 1: a just horrible results. This is a wonderful spot. I

1416
01:07:19,480 --> 01:07:21,560
Speaker 1: love Brentford plus a half at minus one forty five.

1417
01:07:21,840 --> 01:07:25,680
Speaker 5: All right, that does it for us for this week.

1418
01:07:26,080 --> 01:07:28,000
Speaker 5: Best of luck with all your bets in the Premier

1419
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:31,320
Speaker 5: League and beyond. Enjoy the matches, especially a Sunday should

1420
01:07:31,360 --> 01:07:34,880
Speaker 5: be quite a fun day for soccer fans. We'll be

1421
01:07:34,960 --> 01:07:37,680
Speaker 5: back to preview the mid week fixtures again for you

1422
01:07:37,880 --> 01:07:42,480
Speaker 5: on Monday morning, but until then, enjoy, have a good

1423
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:45,720
Speaker 5: holiday weekend if you're celebrating, and thank you to our

1424
01:07:45,920 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 5: producer Noah for all the hard work on the back

1425
01:07:48,320 --> 01:07:51,200
Speaker 5: end and our sponsors BET three six five.

1426
01:07:58,400 --> 01:08:02,880
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1427
01:08:02,920 --> 01:08:05,720
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1428
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:08,800
Speaker 3: available twenty four seven at one eight hundred gambler