1
00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,320
Speaker 1: Joining us is Greg Portel, lead partner Global Consumer Practice

2
00:00:03,320 --> 00:00:05,840
Speaker 1: at CANNIE, on the assessment of Black Friday and what

3
00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:09,400
Speaker 1: we can expect from Cyber Monday. Gregg joins us from St.

4
00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:13,159
Speaker 1: Louis So. Looking at the brick and mortar retailers, they

5
00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:16,360
Speaker 1: saw instore traffic tick up two point nine according to

6
00:00:16,440 --> 00:00:21,320
Speaker 1: Cinematic e Commerce up by two point according to Adobe Analytics.

7
00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:26,720
Speaker 1: Were you surprised by the somewhat muted response to Black Friday? Well,

8
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:29,960
Speaker 1: the response for Black Friday itself was pretty muted. But

9
00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:33,600
Speaker 1: if you look at the overall holiday trends and the

10
00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:36,680
Speaker 1: fact that a lot of retailers have essentially cannibalized their

11
00:00:36,680 --> 00:00:40,400
Speaker 1: own holiday by creating weeks and weeks of build up

12
00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:43,200
Speaker 1: to the event, it's it's probably not all that surprising.

13
00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:46,280
Speaker 1: What do you think we could see from Cyber Monday

14
00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:48,400
Speaker 1: is that when people might come out and spend a

15
00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:53,000
Speaker 1: little bit more. Well, I think all of these artificial

16
00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,400
Speaker 1: dates that we're putting on the calendars need to be

17
00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:58,920
Speaker 1: put under a little bit more of a of a scrutiny,

18
00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:04,759
Speaker 1: a scrutinous view, because the holiday shopping season is really

19
00:01:04,800 --> 00:01:06,839
Speaker 1: spreading out. So I think we will see a bounce.

20
00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:10,959
Speaker 1: We'll see retailers start to put a lot more discounting

21
00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,120
Speaker 1: strategies into play, and you know, starting on Monday, and

22
00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 1: that will create a little bit of a bounce, but

23
00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,200
Speaker 1: I don't think that it will be nearly as robust

24
00:01:19,240 --> 00:01:21,560
Speaker 1: as we were hoping for. Okay, So if we take

25
00:01:21,600 --> 00:01:23,920
Speaker 1: these holidays out in general, what are you seeing in

26
00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:26,440
Speaker 1: terms of the health of the consumer. Are you seeing

27
00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,240
Speaker 1: them wanting to part with some of the cash that

28
00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:31,680
Speaker 1: they have holded over the pandemic or is it getting

29
00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:33,720
Speaker 1: more to the point that people are worried about what's

30
00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:36,600
Speaker 1: going to happen in three and they don't want to

31
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:41,000
Speaker 1: be spending on discretionary items. Well, the the amazing thing

32
00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,640
Speaker 1: about the US consumer is that they can be both

33
00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:46,240
Speaker 1: worried about the future and still spend for the holiday.

34
00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:50,560
Speaker 1: So we're still expecting very strong results for the holiday

35
00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,600
Speaker 1: season and the high single digits of growth. We'll see

36
00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,600
Speaker 1: strength continued strength at the high end of the consumer

37
00:01:56,680 --> 00:01:59,800
Speaker 1: that's a little bit more resilient to the inflationary pressure.

38
00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:04,200
Speaker 1: Then the the more mid to lower tier consumers will

39
00:02:04,240 --> 00:02:07,560
Speaker 1: also be strong because they'll be bargain hunting with and

40
00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:09,359
Speaker 1: playing a little bit of a cat and mass game

41
00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,280
Speaker 1: with retailers that are sitting on too much inventory. So overall,

42
00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:14,800
Speaker 1: we would expect to see a pretty robust consumer response

43
00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:17,120
Speaker 1: to the holiday season. So what does that mean for

44
00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:20,200
Speaker 1: the low end? Are you expecting not as much and

45
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:22,680
Speaker 1: some of those discount retailers, and then what does that

46
00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:27,080
Speaker 1: mean for inventory build ups too? Well, most retailers are

47
00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:28,959
Speaker 1: sitting on too much inventory. The question is going to

48
00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:31,359
Speaker 1: be how do they get rid of that inventory? And

49
00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,720
Speaker 1: there's a lot of pressure both on the middle market

50
00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,080
Speaker 1: of retail and then also in the middle of the consumers.

51
00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:38,600
Speaker 1: So the game that lower end consumers are going to

52
00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,400
Speaker 1: be playing is at what point does the do the

53
00:02:42,480 --> 00:02:45,760
Speaker 1: items that they're looking for come down into their price range.

54
00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:49,000
Speaker 1: There's no doubt that that middle band of retailers are

55
00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,720
Speaker 1: going to end up discounting heavily over the holiday season,

56
00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:54,480
Speaker 1: and the waiting game that the consumers are going to

57
00:02:54,600 --> 00:02:56,920
Speaker 1: be playing is how long can they hold on for

58
00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,919
Speaker 1: those specific items they're looking for until the the retailers

59
00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,080
Speaker 1: decided to discount the pricing. So we would expect to

60
00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,400
Speaker 1: see the opportunistic buying at the low end of the market.

61
00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:11,239
Speaker 1: We were looking at some of the Adobe Analytics U

62
00:03:11,720 --> 00:03:13,880
Speaker 1: I guess analysis of what they have said, it was

63
00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:15,760
Speaker 1: some of the hot ticket items. I love seeing that

64
00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,560
Speaker 1: Bluie is there, the Australian character. Just tell us what

65
00:03:19,600 --> 00:03:21,280
Speaker 1: you're what you're seeing in terms of trends though, and

66
00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:25,240
Speaker 1: people still also opting for I guess experiences rather than

67
00:03:25,280 --> 00:03:30,320
Speaker 1: physical items. Well, obviously physical items still dominate the market,

68
00:03:30,480 --> 00:03:34,440
Speaker 1: but experiences and that little something extra. I think what

69
00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:37,080
Speaker 1: we've saw, what we saw during Life Friday is the

70
00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,920
Speaker 1: traditional door busters are pretty much gone. We're starting to

71
00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:44,000
Speaker 1: see a consumer that's much more intentional and how they spend,

72
00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:47,760
Speaker 1: and that is going to make those bespoke experiences a

73
00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:50,480
Speaker 1: little bit more of a hot ticket item. We're going

74
00:03:50,520 --> 00:03:54,160
Speaker 1: to be looking for something that makes our our friends

75
00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:57,160
Speaker 1: and family remember what we're giving them as opposed to

76
00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,400
Speaker 1: just the volume of what we're getting them. So while

77
00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:03,480
Speaker 1: the the spending maybe up a little bit, it's going

78
00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,160
Speaker 1: to be more on those intentional items and services and

79
00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:09,240
Speaker 1: experiences are definitely in that group. I just wanted to

80
00:04:09,240 --> 00:04:10,960
Speaker 1: get a little bit more on your thought on what

81
00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,720
Speaker 1: you're saying about the retail world bifurcating on on these

82
00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:15,840
Speaker 1: multiple levels. So as we talked about the high end

83
00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:17,880
Speaker 1: versus the low end. Just tell us a little bit

84
00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,440
Speaker 1: more about what you mean there. Well, retailers that struggle

85
00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:23,880
Speaker 1: to create a reason for consumers to go to the

86
00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:27,560
Speaker 1: store are are going to have a disappointing holiday season

87
00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:29,760
Speaker 1: because we know that their strength at the top end,

88
00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:31,720
Speaker 1: and we know that the bargain shopping will be at

89
00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:33,680
Speaker 1: the low end. But if you're in that middle tier

90
00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:37,159
Speaker 1: of retailer, where consumers have to wonder, why would I

91
00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:39,320
Speaker 1: go to this store? Why would I buy a product

92
00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:43,320
Speaker 1: a company A versus company B. That's where there's really

93
00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,240
Speaker 1: no place for retailers to go. And that's really the

94
00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:52,520
Speaker 1: bifurcation that we're talking about. So increasingly retail management teams

95
00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:56,800
Speaker 1: are struggling to give consumers a reason to shop. Almost

96
00:04:56,839 --> 00:05:00,040
Speaker 1: all of these retailers are sitting on an incredible on

97
00:05:00,120 --> 00:05:02,599
Speaker 1: a data so they know a lot about what what

98
00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:06,400
Speaker 1: consumers are looking for and how they buy. But if

99
00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,560
Speaker 1: they can't use that to their advantage, they're going to struggle.

100
00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,200
Speaker 1: So that's really the bifurcation. There's no reason to be

101
00:05:12,279 --> 00:05:13,960
Speaker 1: in the middle of retail now. You either have to

102
00:05:13,960 --> 00:05:17,600
Speaker 1: be an efficiency play or an experience play, and that's

103
00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,640
Speaker 1: where we're starting to see the market kind of part

104
00:05:21,320 --> 00:05:24,160
Speaker 1: And just quickly a word on on e commerce. I mean,

105
00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 1: are you seeing that more of a trend? I mean,

106
00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,400
Speaker 1: why why go to the shops, park, pay all of

107
00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,359
Speaker 1: the parking and the petrol if you can click and

108
00:05:30,360 --> 00:05:33,440
Speaker 1: get it to live in the next day. Well, and

109
00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,880
Speaker 1: that's really that efficiency play. There still is an incredible

110
00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,960
Speaker 1: role for physical retail, but it has to be for

111
00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:43,880
Speaker 1: a specific purpose. It's if you just want something, or

112
00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,720
Speaker 1: you want something tomorrow or whatever your time window is,

113
00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,359
Speaker 1: there are much more efficient ways to do that. And

114
00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:53,240
Speaker 1: that's that e commerce channel where physical retail really needs

115
00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:57,000
Speaker 1: to differentiate itself as an educated sales of seriously at

116
00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:00,279
Speaker 1: a better assortment, an opportunity to touch and feel product ux.

117
00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:04,840
Speaker 1: That's where that physical retail still has a role. If

118
00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:08,839
Speaker 1: you are just an efficiency buyer, e commerce is always

119
00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:11,720
Speaker 1: going to be better, all right, Greg, Thanks for your time.

120
00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:15,880
Speaker 1: Greg Portell is lead partner, Global Consumer Practice at Connie

121
00:06:15,880 --> 00:06:17,479
Speaker 1: on the line from St. Louis for US