1 00:00:00,680 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of 3 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:11,320 Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Gavin Newsom has called a special 4 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:16,959 Speaker 1: session to protect California's liberal policies. We have such a 5 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: great show for you today. The levers Dave Siota looks 6 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: back at the campaign and tries to parse the data 7 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:27,159 Speaker 1: and show us what he's learned. Then we'll talk to 8 00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:33,120 Speaker 1: pollster John Delavolpi about the youth vote and how challenging 9 00:00:33,200 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 1: it is to connect with young people. 10 00:00:35,240 --> 00:00:38,720 Speaker 2: But first the news, So Malli, while don't we go 11 00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:42,560 Speaker 2: over some of the things we're seeing with how the 12 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: election is checking out? What are you seeing here? 13 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 1: We're just going to sort of update because not everything 14 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: is counted. California takes forever, but I just want to 15 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:52,919 Speaker 1: get you guys up to speed on the House. Right now, 16 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,959 Speaker 1: Republicans have won two hundred and five seats. Democrats have 17 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 1: won one hundred and ninety one. There are thirty nine 18 00:00:59,280 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: races under sided. A party needs to get to two 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,440 Speaker 1: eighteen seats to win the majority. 20 00:01:04,480 --> 00:01:06,360 Speaker 3: This is like my math nightmare. 21 00:01:06,720 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 1: So Republicans need only to win one third of the 22 00:01:09,920 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 1: remaining thirteen races, Well, Democrats need to win two thirds. 23 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:14,319 Speaker 3: That's twenty six. 24 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 1: Because a lot of these races are in California, there 25 00:01:17,280 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: is a real chance that Democrats can win a lot 26 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:19,920 Speaker 1: of them. 27 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:21,160 Speaker 3: Whatever it looks like. 28 00:01:21,800 --> 00:01:25,640 Speaker 1: Even if Democrats do win the House, which is possible 29 00:01:25,680 --> 00:01:28,280 Speaker 1: but less and less likely by the day, it'll still 30 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 1: be closed. And you'll remember that last session Republicans had 31 00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: the House but a very very slim, almost ungovernable majority, 32 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: which ended up being quite good for Democrats and meant 33 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,600 Speaker 1: they were able to get very little done. So we'll 34 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: keep following on that, and then I just want to 35 00:01:46,440 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: do a few minutes on what we saw from the 36 00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 1: election and just so we can learn from it. 37 00:01:52,200 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 2: So there's some dalysis here about the Latito vote, since 38 00:01:56,640 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 2: a lot of people are very confused about that. 39 00:01:58,360 --> 00:01:59,240 Speaker 4: What do you see here? 40 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:02,960 Speaker 1: Six percent is the percentage of Latino's that Trump won. 41 00:02:03,400 --> 00:02:06,120 Speaker 1: That's according to recent exit polls. It's the highest number 42 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: for Republican presidential candidate in at least fifty years. Think 43 00:02:10,280 --> 00:02:15,000 Speaker 1: about that. It's eclipsing George W. Bush's forty four percent 44 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: in two thousand and four. So Trump also won a 45 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 1: majority fifty five percent of Latino men. I think it's 46 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 1: important to learn from. So Trump did, in fact win 47 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:30,600 Speaker 1: Latino men by a large margin. He had a sixteen 48 00:02:30,680 --> 00:02:35,360 Speaker 1: point margin of victory in Star County, Texas, the country's 49 00:02:35,360 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: most heavily Latino county on the US Mexico border. He 50 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: lost that same county in twenty sixteen by sixty points. 51 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: Trump surged in a heavily Latino county near the border. 52 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: These are people, some of them probably will end up 53 00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:57,280 Speaker 1: in deportation camps if these deportation camps happened, but they 54 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: still voted for Trump. Another really interesting data point. These 55 00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: are all from the Washington Posts, and you should definitely 56 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: check out this article from very smart data journalist Aaron Blake. 57 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:15,320 Speaker 1: But another really interesting statistic is that Vice President Harris 58 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:21,480 Speaker 1: had a forty seven percent favorability rating and exit polls 59 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: versus Trump's forty six. She may have actually been more 60 00:03:25,800 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: liked by voters, but these voters still decided to vote 61 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:31,960 Speaker 1: for Trump, So make it make sense. 62 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 3: It doesn't make sense to me. 63 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 1: And then Trump won the one in ten these sort 64 00:03:37,400 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: of double haters, those are the voters who don't like 65 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: either candidate. He won one in ten of those voters. 66 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,960 Speaker 1: It's the third time he's done that where he's won 67 00:03:48,000 --> 00:03:50,920 Speaker 1: the double haters. He carried them by seventeen points in 68 00:03:50,960 --> 00:03:56,080 Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, twenty seven points in twenty twenty, and it 69 00:03:56,120 --> 00:04:00,480 Speaker 1: reinforces that they don't mind his character issues for what reason? 70 00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 1: It is not disqualifying to them. So now let's talk 71 00:04:03,160 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: about undocumented immigrants. 72 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,000 Speaker 4: S numbers are pretty alarming. What are you seeing here? 73 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 1: One of the things that is interesting is that in 74 00:04:11,080 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 1: voc has, fifty two percent si undocumented immigrants should be 75 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,159 Speaker 1: offered a chance to apply for legal status, versus only 76 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:20,560 Speaker 1: forty seven percent who said they shouldn't be deported. But 77 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:25,240 Speaker 1: fully one in four of those who support legalization for 78 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 1: immigrants voted for Trump anyway. So what this means is 79 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 1: that a lot of people voted for Trump who may 80 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:37,159 Speaker 1: end up getting deported. It seems as if in exit poles, 81 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 1: fifty four percent of voters agreed that Trump was too extreme, 82 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,600 Speaker 1: but one in nine who viewed Trump as too extreme 83 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:48,960 Speaker 1: still voted for him. Again, they thought he was too extreme, 84 00:04:49,240 --> 00:04:53,120 Speaker 1: but they voted to make him president. So obviously we 85 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:56,920 Speaker 1: have a problem here. The math is bad, This is 86 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,520 Speaker 1: not good. A lot of people voted for a guy 87 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,600 Speaker 1: who's going to do some crazy stuff, and maybe they 88 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:05,440 Speaker 1: thought it wouldn't happen to them. I don't know, but 89 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 1: I think that's a really important and also just insane 90 00:05:10,360 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: and also, like you know, it cannot all fall to 91 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:19,640 Speaker 1: the mainstream media to explain Trump is, especially when Trump 92 00:05:19,800 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 1: is such an effective messager on his own. 93 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:24,360 Speaker 3: I want to take another minute. 94 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: To talk to everybody, because I feel like on the 95 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,919 Speaker 1: last episode, I talked to everyone about the things I 96 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 1: got wrong and how I felt that I had really 97 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 1: let people down and was way too rosy a picture, 98 00:05:35,800 --> 00:05:39,240 Speaker 1: and perhaps that I was affected by my own media silas. 99 00:05:39,320 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 1: I want to take a minute now to talk about 100 00:05:41,520 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: the good stuff, because there's some actually good stuff. 101 00:05:43,960 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 2: You know. 102 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 3: It fucking sucks to have watched. 103 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: Another female presidential candidate be defeated by someone who at 104 00:05:51,520 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 1: this point now is a felon. But there are a 105 00:05:54,640 --> 00:05:57,039 Speaker 1: few bright spots, and I want to share them with 106 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,600 Speaker 1: you guys so that we all don't go crazy. One 107 00:05:59,839 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 1: of the bright spots is that Democrats held a lot 108 00:06:03,680 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 1: of Senate seats and it was this very very bad 109 00:06:07,880 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 1: Senate map for Democrats and they had to defend a 110 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,760 Speaker 1: lot of seats and they were able to do it. 111 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: So some of the seats they defended, which is just great, 112 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,760 Speaker 1: are Jackie Rosen is going back to the Senate and 113 00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:27,479 Speaker 1: that is incredible. She is from the state of Nevada. 114 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 1: So you had Jackie Rosen and that is just great. 115 00:06:31,800 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 1: And then you had Tammy Baldwin going back to the Senate, 116 00:06:36,680 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: which is another really great seat that Democrats could have lost. 117 00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:46,560 Speaker 1: So basically what it looks like is Laura Gillen, who 118 00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 1: has come on this podcast. She's a member of Congress. 119 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: She has flipped a seat that belonged to d Esposito, 120 00:06:53,200 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 1: so that's very good, and that's New York's fourth congressional district. 121 00:06:58,200 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 1: Then also Jackie Roe will keep her seat in the Senate. 122 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: Then the other Senate seats are there's also Josh Riley 123 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: is going to he's a member of Congress and he's 124 00:07:11,840 --> 00:07:14,679 Speaker 1: winning New York's nineteenth so that's also a flip. 125 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,880 Speaker 3: So there are some good things here. 126 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 1: And you know, it's a bummer that Bob Casey is 127 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:25,000 Speaker 1: not coming back. And also Michigan Elisa Slotkin is going 128 00:07:25,040 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: to the Senate and she is a Michigan Democrat, and 129 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: that is really great. So there's a lot to feel 130 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:37,240 Speaker 1: good about in this map, and just go from there. 131 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,000 Speaker 1: I think everyone should not despair and we should all 132 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: just keep going. Dave Serota is the founder of lever News, 133 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: the creator of the podcast The master Plan, and the 134 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:52,480 Speaker 1: author of the screenplay Don't Look Up. 135 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 4: Welcome back, Dave, Thank you, thanks for having me. 136 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 1: Yeah. I took like two days of like not sleep, 137 00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:04,160 Speaker 1: being on television but also not sleeping and being in 138 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: that weird fugue state. And then I was like, who 139 00:08:08,000 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 1: are the people I need to talk to right away? 140 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:13,120 Speaker 1: And you were high on my list. I want you 141 00:08:13,200 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 1: to just talk about where you are right now after 142 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:19,200 Speaker 1: this twenty twenty four cycle, and you know wherever you 143 00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:19,880 Speaker 1: want that to go. 144 00:08:20,200 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 4: I feel like I've been here before. I feel like 145 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:26,400 Speaker 4: I was here twenty years ago after the John Kerry campaign. 146 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 4: I actually went back and looked at the writing I 147 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:31,760 Speaker 4: did around the time. Back then, I had worked for 148 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:35,040 Speaker 4: a guy who was running in a red state, guy 149 00:08:35,080 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 4: who was a farmer rancher, Brian Schweitzer, who became the 150 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 4: Governor of Montana as a outsider candidate. On a night, 151 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 4: an election night that was one of the worst election 152 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,240 Speaker 4: nights for the Democratic Party. That was the night that 153 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 4: George Bush got reelected. And I went back and I 154 00:08:50,440 --> 00:08:52,640 Speaker 4: looked at the exit polls, by the way, and Bush 155 00:08:52,720 --> 00:08:56,000 Speaker 4: won voters below one hundred thousand dollars and above fifty 156 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 4: thousand dollars. So there was a maybe not as abrupt, 157 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,200 Speaker 4: a class alignment back to the Republicans, a working class 158 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 4: alignment to the Republicans. It was similar. And I bring 159 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,679 Speaker 4: this all up to say that we have been here before. 160 00:09:08,840 --> 00:09:10,640 Speaker 4: We were here in two thousand and four, we were 161 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,000 Speaker 4: here in twenty sixteen, we were actually almost here in 162 00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:16,760 Speaker 4: twenty twenty, and we are now here in twenty twenty four. 163 00:09:16,880 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 4: And I think there's a theme through all of this 164 00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:23,880 Speaker 4: that at this point I'm like annoyed and angry that 165 00:09:23,960 --> 00:09:27,360 Speaker 4: I feel like I'm saying the same thing for twenty years, right, 166 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 4: because I went back and I looked at what I wrote, 167 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 4: and it was all about how the arithmetic of democratic 168 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:37,559 Speaker 4: politics does not work in a unfortunately a downwardly mobile 169 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 4: economy where the working class is getting bigger. The Democrats 170 00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:48,360 Speaker 4: theory of the wine track of affluent suburbanites. 171 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:49,240 Speaker 3: Well, it's just not enough people. 172 00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:52,080 Speaker 4: It's just not enough people. It's not enough, And so 173 00:09:52,559 --> 00:09:54,720 Speaker 4: then you get to the question of, okay, well, why 174 00:09:54,840 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 4: is the Democratic Party's formula upper middle class, affluent urban 175 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 4: nights and people of color. Why does the Democratic Party 176 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:08,439 Speaker 4: want that to be its formula. Why does the Democratic 177 00:10:08,520 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 4: Party see as the key swing demographic disaffected upper middle 178 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:17,840 Speaker 4: class Republicans. Why do they keep clinging that the quote 179 00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:20,640 Speaker 4: from Chuck Schumer from twenty sixteen is the one that 180 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:24,200 Speaker 4: rings true in this election, which was Chuck Schumer said 181 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,200 Speaker 4: back then, Hey, I'm not worried about Western I'm paraphrasing here, 182 00:10:27,200 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 4: I'm not worried about Western Pennsylvania. For every Democrat we 183 00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 4: lose in Western Pennsylvania will win two disaffected Republicans in 184 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 4: the suburbs of Philadelphia and will replicate that across state 185 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 4: after state after state. That's been the Democratic Party's formula. 186 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,080 Speaker 4: So you have to ask the question, Okay, why did 187 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:44,680 Speaker 4: the Democrats see as their key swing vote disaffected upper 188 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:49,120 Speaker 4: middle class Republicans and not the Western Pennsylvania blue collar 189 00:10:49,520 --> 00:10:54,560 Speaker 4: Democratic archetype. And I think the answer is because if 190 00:10:54,640 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 4: the Democratic Party leaders are constantly trying to appeal to 191 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 4: some sort of voting electorate and also appease their billionaire 192 00:11:03,880 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 4: and corporate elite donors. It's easier to make cultural appeals 193 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:20,439 Speaker 4: to country club Republicans on reproductive rights, LGBTQ, diversity, democracy norms. 194 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 4: It's easier to make those appeals to those country club 195 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 4: Republicans without having to fear that you're going to offend 196 00:11:27,160 --> 00:11:29,680 Speaker 4: the donor class. If you don't want to offend the 197 00:11:29,760 --> 00:11:33,680 Speaker 4: donor class, then you want to try to cobble together 198 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 4: some coalition that means your electoral appeal isn't offensive to 199 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 4: the donor class. And so country club Republicans aren't offended 200 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:46,319 Speaker 4: by cultural appeals. But the problem is, as we've just discussed, 201 00:11:46,320 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 4: there's not enough voters there. So if you're going to 202 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,959 Speaker 4: make an economic populist case to the working class, like 203 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 4: a real case, you're going to offend your donors, right, 204 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 4: and so that's why the Democrats have been averse to 205 00:11:59,320 --> 00:11:59,760 Speaker 4: doing it. 206 00:12:00,120 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 1: So I want to pause for a second here because 207 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 1: I think there's a lot of good stuff in what 208 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:08,679 Speaker 1: you're saying. Because everybody's a little fragile right now, or 209 00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: at least I'm a little fragile, I want to just 210 00:12:11,200 --> 00:12:13,400 Speaker 1: say two things which I think are true, which is 211 00:12:13,559 --> 00:12:18,240 Speaker 1: one Harris did an incredible job considering where she came in. 212 00:12:18,559 --> 00:12:21,800 Speaker 1: She raised a billion dollars, she got voters excited, She 213 00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:25,640 Speaker 1: did everything she could in a very tough situation. Certainly, 214 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,480 Speaker 1: in my mind, she really did. But I see what 215 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: you're saying, and I think that it's really important. And 216 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 1: the other thing I want you to want you to 217 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,760 Speaker 1: talk about, which is really I think the crux of 218 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: all of this is that it's easier to motivate your base. 219 00:12:40,400 --> 00:12:43,320 Speaker 1: And this is what Donald Trump discovered in twenty sixteen 220 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:46,040 Speaker 1: and then replicated in twenty twenty four is it's easier 221 00:12:46,040 --> 00:12:48,040 Speaker 1: to motivate your base than it is to try to 222 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,079 Speaker 1: convince other people to go after Republicans. 223 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 3: So can you explain to us a little bit about that. 224 00:12:54,600 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 4: Well, I certainly agree that it's easier to motivate your 225 00:12:56,840 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 4: base than it is to convert. 226 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 3: People with chain. Yeah. 227 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, Look, I think Kamala Harris ran I don't even 228 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 4: know how to characterize. I don't think she ran an 229 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,880 Speaker 4: awful campaign. I also think that she ran as a 230 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,440 Speaker 4: generic Democrat, So I think that was the strategy, just 231 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,000 Speaker 4: any generic Democrat that doesn't have a kind of unique 232 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:19,520 Speaker 4: problem like Biden. 233 00:13:19,760 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 3: Right, But she came in so late and she inherited. 234 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 4: Yeah, and so I see the threat. I would say 235 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 4: this though, and look twenty twenty hindsight always, but I 236 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 4: said this right when she was nominated, which is, you 237 00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 4: can try to run a risk averse campaign and just 238 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 4: be the generic Democrat, but there is no risk of her. 239 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:39,040 Speaker 4: That's a risk on to itself. 240 00:13:39,400 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 3: Right now. That is a very good point. You know, 241 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 3: if you look at. 242 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 4: The structural obstacles in this race for the incumbent party, inflation, 243 00:13:47,080 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 4: people are unhappy. 244 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 3: Low approval rating for Biden. 245 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 4: Right like, whether that's her fault or not, those are 246 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 4: just structural impediments that we know are impediments to every 247 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 4: candidate running in this situation. So there's an argument that 248 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:05,160 Speaker 4: you have to risk aversion is just accepting those impediments 249 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,599 Speaker 4: and thinking somehow history is going to be different. I 250 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 4: would argue again twenty twenty hindsight, but I argued it, 251 00:14:09,880 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 4: then you have to make big risks in a situation 252 00:14:13,200 --> 00:14:15,679 Speaker 4: like that, And what are those risks? I mean, what 253 00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:17,559 Speaker 4: were the risks that you could have taken. I mean 254 00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,480 Speaker 4: I had suggested as an example. I don't think this 255 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,080 Speaker 4: would have won the race for her, but you know, 256 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 4: put out there a specific proposal, don't You don't have 257 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 4: to put out twenty eight thousand proposals campaign on two 258 00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 4: or three things that are so crystal clear in how 259 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 4: they will benefit the working class and then run around 260 00:14:35,360 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 4: and just only talk about that. And I had suggested 261 00:14:37,640 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 4: at the time paid family leave, right like Tim Waltz 262 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:42,160 Speaker 4: said that should be the top priority of the Democratic 263 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 4: Party right before he was nominated. You could just like, hey, 264 00:14:45,400 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 4: vote for me, you get paid family of That's it, right, 265 00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 4: Like that, Like it's very I don't think anybody can answer. 266 00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 4: Could have answered, Hey, if Kamala Harris wins the app time, 267 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 4: at the average voter, what does it mean for me? 268 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 4: I get like it's not Donald Trump, and like there's 269 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:02,840 Speaker 4: this thing called democracy, but like what do I actually 270 00:15:03,000 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 4: get directly? And I don't think that question was answered. 271 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 4: I don't even think the campaign really made an effort 272 00:15:08,160 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 4: to really seriously answer that. I know they had TV 273 00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:13,840 Speaker 4: ads on about price gouging. I know they had TV 274 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 4: ads about some basic economic stuff. You know, there's two 275 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 4: media worlds that the voter is immersed in. There's the 276 00:15:19,800 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 4: paid television ads, then there's the what is the campaign 277 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:24,800 Speaker 4: doing the candidate doing on the campaign trail. So you 278 00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,720 Speaker 4: had these anti price gouging ads on TV and reproductive 279 00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:30,960 Speaker 4: rights ads, and then you had like the candidate running 280 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,960 Speaker 4: around with Liz Cheney, and you had the face of 281 00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:37,040 Speaker 4: the Democratic Party on cable TV being a billionaire Mark Cuban, 282 00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,200 Speaker 4: and you had a Democratic convention in which you had 283 00:15:40,240 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 4: a billionaire governor bragging about being a billionaire. The average 284 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,200 Speaker 4: voter probably walks away from this being like, I don't 285 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 4: even know what the hell that is? What is this picture? Right? 286 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:51,080 Speaker 4: At least with Trump, he's telling a story. He's telling 287 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,560 Speaker 4: a clear, crystal clear. I mean, he's incoherent, but like 288 00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 4: his story is basically, you know, a story of grievance, 289 00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 4: a story of the government getting in the way the economy, 290 00:16:00,880 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 4: government run by elites who don't care about you, right, Like, 291 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:06,640 Speaker 4: it's at least a story. And so you know, I'm 292 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 4: not try to say this was an easily winnable race. 293 00:16:10,080 --> 00:16:13,720 Speaker 4: It was not. But I think this Democrats having a 294 00:16:13,800 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 4: problem connecting with the working class. I go back to, like, 295 00:16:16,960 --> 00:16:19,040 Speaker 4: this is what I've been talking about and a lot 296 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,880 Speaker 4: of us have been talking about for twenty years, and 297 00:16:21,960 --> 00:16:24,880 Speaker 4: I'm burying the lead here because I think the thing 298 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,680 Speaker 4: that we have to wrestle with is if you look 299 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 4: at the exit polling, who do the Democrats do worsd 300 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 4: with overall working class voters? Obviously men and Latinos. The 301 00:16:36,320 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 4: Democrats had within its midst a movement that almost won 302 00:16:41,920 --> 00:16:48,120 Speaker 4: its nomination, a movement that was strongest among those demographics 303 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,200 Speaker 4: Bernie Sanders when he ran in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. 304 00:16:51,240 --> 00:16:52,560 Speaker 4: And I'm not saying, like, you know, he should have 305 00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,080 Speaker 4: run in twenty twenty, I'm not saying any of that. 306 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,280 Speaker 4: What I'm saying is is that the Democratic Party, it 307 00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:02,120 Speaker 4: has ostracized Bernie Sanders. It is ostracized the people who 308 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,280 Speaker 4: ran Bernie Sanders campaigns. It has ostracized the Bernie bros. 309 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:08,919 Speaker 4: I'm putting that in quotes. I mean literally, they genderized 310 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:13,360 Speaker 4: the establishment of the Democratic Party, genderized Bernie supporters by 311 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:15,720 Speaker 4: calling them Bernie brose. And then they wake up in 312 00:17:15,760 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 4: twenty twenty four wondering, hey, why do we not do 313 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 4: so well among working class male voters. 314 00:17:20,040 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: You did this, yes, but our listeners are not necessarily 315 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:24,800 Speaker 1: those people. 316 00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 4: They are for sure, No, No, I'm right, for sure. 317 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 1: Wanting to catch up on What's happening. But I do 318 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 1: think those are really good points. And the democratic establishment 319 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:36,919 Speaker 1: one of the things when you look at Harris, she 320 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 1: lost that vote. Right, These young men, the Joe Rogan crowd, 321 00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:46,720 Speaker 1: were very winnable for Bernie, And in fact, Bernie went 322 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:50,240 Speaker 1: on the Joe Rogan podcast and Joe Rogan sort of 323 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: semi endorsed him. 324 00:17:52,080 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 4: Right, Yep, that's exactly right. And by the way, there 325 00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:58,119 Speaker 4: was controversy about Bernie going on Joe Rogan. There was 326 00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 4: controversy about Bernie going on Fox News, the Fox Newstown. 327 00:18:01,080 --> 00:18:03,479 Speaker 4: Oh he can't. One of the lessons here is you 328 00:18:03,520 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 4: go where the voters are. 329 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 3: Yeah. 330 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 4: Absolutely, that's the candidate's responsibility. This idea that you know, 331 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:11,760 Speaker 4: we're expressing our values by going on Joe Rogan and 332 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,520 Speaker 4: saying therefore Joe Rogan is No, that's not how this works. 333 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:15,040 Speaker 3: Right. 334 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 1: The people who listen to Joe Rogan are not going 335 00:18:18,320 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 1: to listen to CNN. Right, that's a choice. If you 336 00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:22,359 Speaker 1: want to get in front of those voters, you go 337 00:18:22,440 --> 00:18:23,159 Speaker 1: on Joe Rogan. 338 00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,840 Speaker 4: That's exactly right. And I would say there's a bigger 339 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:28,840 Speaker 4: issue here we're talking about media, which is I think 340 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 4: that the Democratic Party, Democratic elected officials, the sort of 341 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 4: the infrastructure of the Democratic Party is obsessed with getting 342 00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:44,480 Speaker 4: onto and building out its communications strategy through traditional communications platforms, 343 00:18:44,600 --> 00:18:50,439 Speaker 4: cable TV, news, newspapers. They're obsessed with talking on platforms 344 00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:54,280 Speaker 4: and through conduits that are only talking to the voters that, 345 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,520 Speaker 4: by the way, the Democrats are winning sort of upper 346 00:18:56,560 --> 00:19:02,919 Speaker 4: middle class, affluent, educated, highly informed voters, and they're not 347 00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:05,879 Speaker 4: all that interested. They haven't been all that interested in 348 00:19:06,080 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 4: engaging with independent media, alternate platforms, and that's a huge 349 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:15,399 Speaker 4: disadvantage right clearly. And the Republicans, they've spent years cultivating 350 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:17,600 Speaker 4: and building out that infrastructure exactly. 351 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:19,200 Speaker 3: And if you look at this campaign. 352 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 1: He went on Theovon, he went on Joe Rogan, he 353 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:28,520 Speaker 1: went on all of these podcasters who speak to this group, 354 00:19:28,720 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: which Harris lost. I want to go back to this 355 00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:34,680 Speaker 1: idea we talked about before, because there's so much of 356 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:38,080 Speaker 1: the Democratic idea and I think it may have worked 357 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:42,400 Speaker 1: to some in twenty twenty, was to reach across the 358 00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 1: aisle to these disaffected Republicans. But now the disaffected Republicans 359 00:19:48,080 --> 00:19:51,879 Speaker 1: are by de facto either don't vote or vote for Democrats, 360 00:19:52,040 --> 00:19:55,120 Speaker 1: and the Republican party itself is now maga. 361 00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, this question of who the real swing voters are 362 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,600 Speaker 4: is the central question here moving forward. This, I hope, 363 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:07,919 Speaker 4: is the end of a Democratic party that sees the 364 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:12,919 Speaker 4: primary target swing voters as country club Republicans. The primary 365 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:18,120 Speaker 4: swing voter in America are working class people generally, that is, the. 366 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:21,000 Speaker 3: Who were already Democrats, who are not showing up. 367 00:20:21,160 --> 00:20:24,159 Speaker 4: Yes, who are either not showing up or voted for 368 00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 4: Trump but have voted before for the Democrats. We did 369 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,960 Speaker 4: learn this lesson in twenty sixteen, right all the counties 370 00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:34,040 Speaker 4: that voted twice for Obama and then voted for Donald Trump. 371 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 4: These were a lot of them were working class locales 372 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 4: in the country that had been hit really hard in 373 00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:44,439 Speaker 4: the financial crisis and in the recession that followed. Those 374 00:20:44,640 --> 00:20:48,240 Speaker 4: are the target swing voters, and the Democrats need to 375 00:20:48,320 --> 00:20:52,960 Speaker 4: reorient their party to be talking to those voters. And 376 00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 4: I think it's also worth saying this is worth asking 377 00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 4: some difficult questions about what those swing voters see when 378 00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,840 Speaker 4: they see Democrats. And my view is is what they see, 379 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 4: let's talk a little bit about you can tell what 380 00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 4: the Republicans are trying to make them see. In Donald 381 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:14,439 Speaker 4: Trump's ads, for instance, during NFL games. Right, Donald Trump 382 00:21:14,480 --> 00:21:16,840 Speaker 4: is trying to talk to working class voters when he's 383 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 4: advertising in NFL games. My belief is this all of 384 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,760 Speaker 4: the anti trans ads, the weirder the ad got right, 385 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,680 Speaker 4: Like she wants to give sex change operations to people 386 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,200 Speaker 4: who are in prisoners. What is that really saying? 387 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:32,680 Speaker 3: I mean, people are getting your free stuff. 388 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,920 Speaker 4: I think it's deeper. Actually, I think it's obviously at 389 00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,040 Speaker 4: one level, it's a dog whistle to sort of bigots, right, 390 00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 4: people who just you know, sort of the maga bass, 391 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 4: the real base. But I think it's also this, it's 392 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,800 Speaker 4: also saying to people who are not bigots or who 393 00:21:47,800 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 4: don't think much about any of that stuff. Hey, the 394 00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 4: Democrats are so obsessed with specific demographic groups. They don't 395 00:21:58,320 --> 00:22:02,120 Speaker 4: care about you. They don't see you as anything other 396 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:06,119 Speaker 4: than you know, whatever demographic group you can check on 397 00:22:06,160 --> 00:22:09,680 Speaker 4: a piece of paper. We the Republicans look at you 398 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:13,239 Speaker 4: as you know, there are people, everyone's everybody. And what 399 00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,880 Speaker 4: they're saying is the Democrats is a party of small, 400 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 4: niche groups, and they don't see you, the regular average American, 401 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,400 Speaker 4: the so called is Nixon called it the silent majority. 402 00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:28,720 Speaker 4: And I think that all speaks to Democrats can say, oh, well, 403 00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 4: that's just racism, that's just bigotry, and that you know, 404 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 4: we'll never see. 405 00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,439 Speaker 3: But that's not really what it is. 406 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:34,000 Speaker 5: No. 407 00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 4: I think it means the democratic messaging, the Democratic brand 408 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:43,199 Speaker 4: has to return back to a brand that says universal ideas, 409 00:22:43,359 --> 00:22:47,679 Speaker 4: universal programs are good on their own merits and don't 410 00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:50,679 Speaker 4: have to be cast as for this group or for 411 00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:52,320 Speaker 4: that group. Molly, I want to tell you a story 412 00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 4: about twenty twenty. It was twenty nineteen, because I think 413 00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 4: this is really important. I was working for Bernie Sanders 414 00:22:57,680 --> 00:22:59,880 Speaker 4: and he was out and talking about Medicare for all. 415 00:23:00,119 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 4: He was in an event. It was an event about 416 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:03,960 Speaker 4: black women, issues of interest to black women. I can't 417 00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 4: remember the name of the group, and he was asked, 418 00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:07,639 Speaker 4: what are you going to do? And I'm paraphrasing here, 419 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 4: you know, what would you do for What are your 420 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 4: plans for the black community? Et cetera, et cetera. And 421 00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:13,640 Speaker 4: he said a couple things and then he really focused 422 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,880 Speaker 4: in on Medicare for all. Now, I don't care where 423 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:18,320 Speaker 4: anybody who's listening what they think about Medicare for all, 424 00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,119 Speaker 4: but he made a very universal argument about how you know, 425 00:23:21,160 --> 00:23:25,560 Speaker 4: the healthcare crisis, and he was essentially booed because the 426 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:30,280 Speaker 4: idea was that he wasn't specifically talking about a specific 427 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:35,200 Speaker 4: policy program that would only help one specific set of people. 428 00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 4: In other words, the universalism of what he was pushing 429 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:44,159 Speaker 4: was seen as sort of insensitive to the specific needs 430 00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 4: of a specific demographic group. Now, obviously specific demographic groups 431 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:51,600 Speaker 4: do have specific needs and do have specific grievances that 432 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 4: are different. But I think my point is is that 433 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,440 Speaker 4: if the Democratic Party becomes hostile to the idea of 434 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:03,560 Speaker 4: universal class based peals, that is a fundamental problem. It 435 00:24:03,600 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 4: gives the Republicans a way to say the Democrats don't 436 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 4: care about all people, They only care about specific so 437 00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:15,480 Speaker 4: called interest groups or demographic groups. And I think Donald 438 00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 4: Trump exploited that, and the working class of this country 439 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 4: reacted to that. And by the way, the asterisk is, 440 00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 4: even with the Democrats being perceived as that they did 441 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:31,320 Speaker 4: worse among those specific demographic groups in the voting, even 442 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 4: those specific demographic groups don't like to feel pandered to. 443 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:41,480 Speaker 1: No, I agree, a man, very very very very interesting. 444 00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:43,800 Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining us. 445 00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 4: Thank you, thanks so much for having me. 446 00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 1: John Delivolpi is a polster and author of Fight How 447 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 1: gen Z is channeling their fear and passion to save 448 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:59,480 Speaker 1: America as well as the substackt jdv on gen Z. 449 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,639 Speaker 3: Welcome back to Fast Politics, John dela Volpi. 450 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,280 Speaker 2: I love, it's great to be back with you, Mollie. Thanks. 451 00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 3: So I'm going to. 452 00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:09,639 Speaker 1: Start by explaining to our listeners the last time we 453 00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,040 Speaker 1: were together, because I think it's important. 454 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:13,800 Speaker 3: I came to. 455 00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:18,159 Speaker 1: A panel you had at the Harvard Institute of Politics 456 00:25:18,600 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 1: and I am seated and it was you and me 457 00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:28,200 Speaker 1: and John anzelone who's another very smart pollster, and two 458 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 1: young students who are college students at Harvard and who 459 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,439 Speaker 1: are involved in the institute, and then the head of 460 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 1: Emily's list. 461 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:37,240 Speaker 2: Correct. 462 00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: We talked about the coming election, and at the end 463 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 1: of our talk, we all weighed in on what we 464 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,199 Speaker 1: thought was going to happen, and I think you were 465 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,000 Speaker 1: really right. These kids, by the way, also thought Trump 466 00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: was going to win. So it did show that young 467 00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:57,800 Speaker 1: people were not having it even then. So explain to 468 00:25:57,920 --> 00:26:01,200 Speaker 1: us a little bit about what you saw through this process, 469 00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 1: and maybe you want to start with Biden. 470 00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:09,040 Speaker 2: Sure, Well, you ended that forum with us asking us 471 00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 2: for predictions, and my prediction was to the students, specifically 472 00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 2: in the audience, that we need to be prepared for 473 00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:21,119 Speaker 2: any outcome. And the reason I said that was I 474 00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 2: didn't feel comfortable predicting a Trump victory at that moment. 475 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 2: Though that's clearly kind of what you and I were 476 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 2: talking about, I think before and afterwards, right. But the 477 00:26:29,640 --> 00:26:32,159 Speaker 2: reason I operated it in that way is because I 478 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,600 Speaker 2: didn't feel like our students were prepared for this outcome. 479 00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,359 Speaker 2: I didn't feel that my own kids, you know, in 480 00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:41,879 Speaker 2: the members of our community, were prepared for this outcome 481 00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,120 Speaker 2: because the media that they consumed, the media that their 482 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,640 Speaker 2: friends and their neighbors and their peers consume, indicated that 483 00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:53,600 Speaker 2: there's nothing to worry about, that democracy was on the ballot, 484 00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:57,399 Speaker 2: that reproductive health was virtually the only issue that mattered 485 00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,719 Speaker 2: to younger people, and therefore, how could there be an 486 00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 2: each choice other than rejecting Trump and voting for our Harris. 487 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 2: And what I tried to do is just to say, 488 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,200 Speaker 2: hold up, let's reconsider who we're really talking about here. 489 00:27:09,320 --> 00:27:11,400 Speaker 2: So that was the point of that, right, And when 490 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:16,359 Speaker 2: we talk about Biden, this is someone who produced Obama 491 00:27:16,680 --> 00:27:20,320 Speaker 2: like support among younger people four years ago long and 492 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,120 Speaker 2: what I mean by that is he received sixty percent 493 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 2: of all the votes cast among Americans under the age 494 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,920 Speaker 2: of thirty one. But what he also did was something 495 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:33,000 Speaker 2: that Obama never dated. He helped produce record level turnout 496 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 2: and participation. The first time in recorded history, we have 497 00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 2: over a majority fifty three plus percent of all eligible 498 00:27:40,600 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 2: young people voted in the twenty twenty election. And for 499 00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:47,000 Speaker 2: those on college campuses and younger people to collectorre grady 500 00:27:47,240 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 2: was it was over sixty percent. So that is where 501 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,800 Speaker 2: we collectively started. When we really think about the first 502 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:58,480 Speaker 2: significant kind of gen Z kind of experience in presidential campaigns. 503 00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 2: Whenever we have conversation, I always remind people that it's 504 00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 2: because of younger people in twenty twenty that Biden was elected. 505 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 2: Of course, there are a lot of, you know, ways 506 00:28:08,320 --> 00:28:10,679 Speaker 2: in which you can cut this data, but it is 507 00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:13,879 Speaker 2: true that President Trump won everybody over the age of 508 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,520 Speaker 2: forty five, and it was that combination of record turnout 509 00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:19,720 Speaker 2: in twenty point margin that elected Biden in the sixth 510 00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 2: the in the five battleground states that flipped from red 511 00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:26,439 Speaker 2: to blue, Democrats generally start in the mid fifties with 512 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,560 Speaker 2: younger people, the job is can you push it to sixty. 513 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,800 Speaker 2: When you push it to sixty percent, mollet you win 514 00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:34,480 Speaker 2: the loy Else when you fall below sixty percent, you 515 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,760 Speaker 2: join the legs of Al Gore, Hylary Clinton, John Kerrey 516 00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:39,880 Speaker 2: find public servants not presidents. 517 00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:44,000 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a really important point. So he had that 518 00:28:44,080 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 1: support and he really lost it. 519 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 2: Right, He had the support in What is incredibly frustrating 520 00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,880 Speaker 2: to me, Molly, is that he did what younger people 521 00:28:53,960 --> 00:28:56,280 Speaker 2: ask him to do. Okay, And this is the thing 522 00:28:56,280 --> 00:29:00,480 Speaker 2: that makes me so frustrated, is that the couple of 523 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 2: years he despite Republicans not supported in the Supreme Court, right, 524 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 2: he relieved over one hundred and seventy billion dollars of 525 00:29:08,880 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 2: student debt. He passed the first five you know, he led. 526 00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,800 Speaker 2: That's the first byparison, Gun Violence Prevention Act, and two 527 00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:20,080 Speaker 2: generations right, historic investment and climate But as you know, 528 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:24,320 Speaker 2: I spent you know, in ordinary number of hours every 529 00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:28,000 Speaker 2: single week working and talking to younger people, and very 530 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 2: few people know or appreciate that. So that was I 531 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:37,600 Speaker 2: think the one of the most significant factors of young 532 00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:41,400 Speaker 2: people essentially losing faith in the Biden Harrison mistraction and 533 00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:45,360 Speaker 2: the Democratic Party is they didn't see the receipts, you know, 534 00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,560 Speaker 2: the checks for cash. They didn't see the receipts. They 535 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,720 Speaker 2: didn't see the impact that their vote made. I think 536 00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:52,920 Speaker 2: that's a major part of it. And of course you 537 00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,200 Speaker 2: have on the other side, you know, the stress around economics. 538 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,160 Speaker 2: But the failure to communicate and I know it's hard, 539 00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:03,400 Speaker 2: but the failure to communicate that he led and successfully 540 00:30:03,840 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 2: accomplished more for younger people than any president problem in 541 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 2: my lifetime is a key part, I think to understanding 542 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 2: where we are today. 543 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:14,440 Speaker 3: Yes, so let's let's do more on that. 544 00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:20,920 Speaker 1: Is that inability to message with to that group the accomplishments, 545 00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:25,880 Speaker 1: is that a media failure, a communications failure? I mean 546 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:30,000 Speaker 1: that group young men who went for Biden, Like he 547 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,360 Speaker 1: managed to get to those young. 548 00:30:32,960 --> 00:30:36,160 Speaker 2: Men, right, Trump was able to, yeah. 549 00:30:35,840 --> 00:30:38,800 Speaker 3: And take them away from Biden. Talk about that shift. 550 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,920 Speaker 2: I'm not saying, you know, one of the most challenging 551 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:45,920 Speaker 2: things to do in media today, in communications today, right 552 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,480 Speaker 2: and survey research today, is to connect and talk to 553 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:53,400 Speaker 2: younger people. You know, is the fractioned media landscape, social 554 00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,480 Speaker 2: media level of authenticity you know, certainly Biden's not is 555 00:30:57,600 --> 00:31:00,960 Speaker 2: not native to any of these platforms. But we're talking 556 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,040 Speaker 2: about the president of the United States of America. Okay, 557 00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:08,360 Speaker 2: it is required that the White House and the party 558 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 2: that supports him, Molly, finds a way to communicate more 559 00:31:12,240 --> 00:31:17,120 Speaker 2: effectively to more Americans. When you don't, this is what happens. Okay, 560 00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:21,160 Speaker 2: you lose people who you have no business losing to 561 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:26,600 Speaker 2: an anti Democratic, you know, a Republican contanger. That's what happens. 562 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,960 Speaker 2: It's not easy, but you need to find a way. 563 00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:33,640 Speaker 2: You have all the resources in the world at your disposal. 564 00:31:33,760 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 2: We got into this interesting exchange actually on our panel, Molly, right, 565 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:42,400 Speaker 2: Republicans had x number of dollars more money spent. Well, 566 00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:45,360 Speaker 2: not this cycle. You know, the Democrats had far more 567 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:49,040 Speaker 2: resources from Republicans, and of course they controlled half of 568 00:31:49,080 --> 00:31:51,840 Speaker 2: Congress and the White House as well. So there's that 569 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,720 Speaker 2: can be a hard but you know, I'm not making 570 00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 2: you can't make any any any excuses. But listen, let's 571 00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,400 Speaker 2: take a lesson of how Trump did it. And by away, 572 00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,080 Speaker 2: Kamala Harris did a pretty good job of this. Well, 573 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,280 Speaker 2: you know, certainly over the first you know, undred, you know, 574 00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:07,880 Speaker 2: sixty days and over the entire campaigns. She did a 575 00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 2: damn good job of this. 576 00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,240 Speaker 1: And I mean, I want to stop us for a 577 00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:16,080 Speaker 1: minute here and say, Harris did absolutely the best anyone 578 00:32:16,080 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 1: could do with the situation. She inherited, Like, if we 579 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,520 Speaker 1: see anything, it's that she she got in there. 580 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:26,640 Speaker 3: She was a really good orator. She raised a. 581 00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:29,680 Speaker 1: Billion dollars, She had huge I mean, like, it was 582 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,200 Speaker 1: not like she was in the greatest starting place, right, 583 00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:36,000 Speaker 1: I mean the incumbent had and Biden had a forty 584 00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,520 Speaker 1: one percent approval rating. I mean, for her to win 585 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,120 Speaker 1: would have been a humongous left. 586 00:32:40,560 --> 00:32:43,320 Speaker 2: And I give her so much credit for becoming a 587 00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 2: far better politician than she wasn't when I first got 588 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,840 Speaker 2: to know her, you know now shleep back in twenty nineteen, 589 00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:52,920 Speaker 2: Far far better. I don't think there's no question that 590 00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,280 Speaker 2: she couldn't have managed that rollout any any better. But 591 00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:59,080 Speaker 2: the political and the communication side, right, I thought the 592 00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,960 Speaker 2: convention was brilliant, you know. Her prosecution of the case 593 00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:08,200 Speaker 2: during the debate again a plus. I wish I think 594 00:33:08,240 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 2: she wishes as well that she had a better prepared 595 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 2: answer on the view regarding you know where ever, voters 596 00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 2: might find some distance between her Biden. I do think 597 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:20,840 Speaker 2: that hurt her, if we're being honest. But the capacity 598 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:25,000 Speaker 2: that she had, like Trump, was to use social media 599 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:29,160 Speaker 2: to connect with people outside of these kind of political 600 00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,640 Speaker 2: algorithms that you and I spent so much of our 601 00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:34,239 Speaker 2: time in. Right. You know what Trump was able to 602 00:33:34,280 --> 00:33:38,120 Speaker 2: do is he was able to extend his his relationship 603 00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:42,760 Speaker 2: with the younger voters through connections right to Dana White 604 00:33:42,800 --> 00:33:46,440 Speaker 2: and UFC, or to Dave port Novoliam Bar School or 605 00:33:46,480 --> 00:33:49,960 Speaker 2: the melt Points, etcetera, etcetera. Well, Kama was able to 606 00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:50,320 Speaker 2: do that. 607 00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:53,000 Speaker 3: With call her Daddy, but not quite enough. 608 00:33:53,440 --> 00:33:56,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, but also through the joy of that somber of 609 00:33:56,400 --> 00:33:59,920 Speaker 2: her dancing. I've been enjoying, you know, cooking and mused 610 00:34:00,120 --> 00:34:02,120 Speaker 2: and those sorts of things. That's important to kind of 611 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 2: make that connection is that's how you build confidence and 612 00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:09,640 Speaker 2: trust to have a more meaningful conversation later on about Okay, 613 00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:12,200 Speaker 2: which policy is going to be more effective? Right for 614 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:15,479 Speaker 2: my economic future? You need to make that connections first. 615 00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:19,279 Speaker 1: Yeah, top line, this election for us, like ultimately and 616 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,280 Speaker 1: again state by state wasn't completely uniform. 617 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:26,200 Speaker 3: We did see a lot of split ticket voting, right, Yeah. 618 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:29,320 Speaker 2: We had been in an era I think Maule the 619 00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:32,000 Speaker 2: last two presidential cycles, you can check me, but I 620 00:34:32,080 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 2: think it's accurate to say there is only one instance 621 00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:37,880 Speaker 2: of ticket splitting, I believe, and the last two cycles, 622 00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:41,759 Speaker 2: which was difference than the previous three cycles, where we 623 00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:45,600 Speaker 2: saw somewhere between seven and ten states tickets splitting. So 624 00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,560 Speaker 2: one of the reasons, one of the reasons that I 625 00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:54,720 Speaker 2: was not confident, you know, in terms of a Harris victory, 626 00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,480 Speaker 2: it is because of that ticket splitting, and to me, 627 00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:02,239 Speaker 2: that showed an election to it that basically kind of 628 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:06,400 Speaker 2: normalized Donald Trump, that people were making the choice of 629 00:35:06,680 --> 00:35:10,480 Speaker 2: I can vote democrat, I can vote for him because 630 00:35:10,480 --> 00:35:13,480 Speaker 2: I think it's going to improve the economy. But then 631 00:35:13,520 --> 00:35:15,480 Speaker 2: I'll try to balance that with the point of my 632 00:35:15,600 --> 00:35:20,440 Speaker 2: democratics center. They saw some value in voting for him. 633 00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:25,840 Speaker 2: It wasn't they didn't necessarily see, you know, the pure 634 00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 2: fascist tendencies that so many other Democrats saw. They saw 635 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:34,240 Speaker 2: the value in the economy. And I think he has normalized, 636 00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,160 Speaker 2: you know, a big part of what he's doing. I 637 00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:39,120 Speaker 2: think that explains a lot of tickets splitting and a 638 00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:41,640 Speaker 2: lot of a reason that I was just not confident 639 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:42,920 Speaker 2: in a Harris pictory. 640 00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:47,240 Speaker 1: Yeah, so here are the things that I think are interesting. 641 00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:52,000 Speaker 1: Tickets flitting then the house. It still seems like the 642 00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,280 Speaker 1: house is going to be very tight. But that's pretty interesting. 643 00:35:56,080 --> 00:36:01,040 Speaker 1: And also we saw she did grow vote chair with 644 00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:06,120 Speaker 1: college educated women and rich people, right, So so I think. 645 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:10,560 Speaker 2: One of the most are lemm statistics and atheists, well 646 00:36:10,680 --> 00:36:14,680 Speaker 2: in the non religious perhaps atheists as well as a group. Right. 647 00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,200 Speaker 2: So basically, you know, I don't know a lot are 648 00:36:17,239 --> 00:36:19,759 Speaker 2: the people that you know who are my friends at 649 00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:22,960 Speaker 2: neighbors and Massachusetts's about right, and probably for you too 650 00:36:23,040 --> 00:36:25,920 Speaker 2: in Manhattan, I don't know, right, But but these but 651 00:36:26,120 --> 00:36:28,640 Speaker 2: this is the echo chamber that we're talking about, and 652 00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:32,000 Speaker 2: in the children and there for the parents of the children, 653 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,080 Speaker 2: you know, on college campuses, who would try to prepare 654 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:37,960 Speaker 2: for this. You know, I think it was you know, 655 00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:40,200 Speaker 2: you can cut this so many different ways, right, you know, 656 00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:44,120 Speaker 2: I saw someone alsis showing a one point one percent 657 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:47,360 Speaker 2: shift across at ballet ground in the States. She wins 658 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,800 Speaker 2: the blue wall a one point one percent shift. This 659 00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:54,040 Speaker 2: is winnable that I don't believe that. Yes, were there 660 00:36:54,120 --> 00:37:00,480 Speaker 2: headwinds with inflation and his favorability, Yeah, headwinds you know inflation. 661 00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:03,120 Speaker 5: You know, though it was getting better headwinds on his 662 00:37:03,239 --> 00:37:06,879 Speaker 5: approval rating, of course, headwinds in fact, you know you're 663 00:37:06,920 --> 00:37:09,200 Speaker 5: doing a one hundred billion dollars started up, right in 664 00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:11,400 Speaker 5: one hundred and seven or eight days or something. 665 00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:16,160 Speaker 2: Absolutely, I still think this is winnable. And the biggest, 666 00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:23,080 Speaker 2: biggest criticism I have is the Democratic Party's instituial the 667 00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:29,239 Speaker 2: lack of institutional investments in listening, okay, and investing in 668 00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:35,920 Speaker 2: listening to the people who Trump is clearly communicating with. Okay, 669 00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:42,040 Speaker 2: I'm talking about younger people, clearly Hispanic specifically Hispanic men. Right, 670 00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,440 Speaker 2: we saw like a thirty point shift there as well 671 00:37:45,480 --> 00:37:49,759 Speaker 2: as as well as rural voters and others. Democrats seem 672 00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:53,520 Speaker 2: to have a good grasp with the African American community. 673 00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,719 Speaker 2: It could always be stronger, but it feels like she 674 00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:57,719 Speaker 2: did really well there. 675 00:37:57,800 --> 00:37:59,680 Speaker 3: Right, she didn't lose black men. 676 00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,600 Speaker 1: I mean the reason she lost and tell me if 677 00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:08,440 Speaker 1: this is correct, is Hispanic men, white non college educated. 678 00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:08,719 Speaker 3: Men and women. 679 00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, and listen, if you take the US both from 680 00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,120 Speaker 2: one from fifty five percent, which is where I think 681 00:38:14,160 --> 00:38:16,680 Speaker 2: what she got to sixty percent, well that adds a 682 00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:17,359 Speaker 2: point and a half. 683 00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:18,080 Speaker 4: You win. 684 00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 2: And you know, again, Democrats in particular continue to make 685 00:38:22,200 --> 00:38:23,520 Speaker 2: progress with seniors, you know. 686 00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:26,360 Speaker 3: Which is amazing, Which is amazing, and. 687 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:29,520 Speaker 2: It's important, which makes all this, in my view, all 688 00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:30,480 Speaker 2: the more frustrated. 689 00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:31,120 Speaker 3: Yeah. 690 00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:35,279 Speaker 1: No, it is very shitty, I mean, but it is 691 00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:39,239 Speaker 1: also very interesting. So how much do you think that 692 00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:42,160 Speaker 1: Gaza and Israel affected this? 693 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,799 Speaker 2: Let's look at from a couple different perspectives. I think 694 00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:48,560 Speaker 2: that in all of the polling that I've conducted, and 695 00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,160 Speaker 2: I've asked a question dozens of times and dozens of 696 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:55,920 Speaker 2: venues of different word choices, Gaza and Israel is generally 697 00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:59,200 Speaker 2: near the bottom of all list of priorities. However, it 698 00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:02,000 Speaker 2: doesn't mean it's not a priority, right, And that is 699 00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:05,399 Speaker 2: I think where we said somehow we sometimes misinterpret things. 700 00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:12,640 Speaker 2: I think overwhelmingly younger people voted some combination of economic concerns, 701 00:39:12,760 --> 00:39:16,160 Speaker 2: trying to get a sense of economic independence and financial stability, 702 00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:20,600 Speaker 2: and of course reproductive health, abortion rights, you know, freedoms 703 00:39:20,640 --> 00:39:23,920 Speaker 2: more generally. But I kind of think about Gaza and 704 00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:28,560 Speaker 2: Israel like climate change, and that climate change is very 705 00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,840 Speaker 2: rarely at the top of a list of priorities. But 706 00:39:32,200 --> 00:39:36,520 Speaker 2: if a younger person doesn't see their values on climate 707 00:39:36,640 --> 00:39:40,160 Speaker 2: reflected by the person they're learning for. It's really hard 708 00:39:40,200 --> 00:39:42,960 Speaker 2: to motivate them, Okay. And I think that's probably the 709 00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:46,799 Speaker 2: case with Israel and Gaza that I do think, yes, 710 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,600 Speaker 2: it wasn't the driving issue, but I think that when 711 00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:53,439 Speaker 2: we look at turnout, it was higher in ballot ground 712 00:39:53,480 --> 00:39:55,839 Speaker 2: than a non background. The body was depressed, and I'm 713 00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,960 Speaker 2: pretty confident that, you know, Israel and Gaza played a role. 714 00:39:59,120 --> 00:40:01,759 Speaker 2: I believe we'll see once the final exit polls are 715 00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:04,839 Speaker 2: into that she she might have lost. So you vote 716 00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:08,320 Speaker 2: in Michigan, you know, and we know clearly there's a significant. 717 00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:11,480 Speaker 3: Partment and she lost. You're born yeah, yeah, right, but. 718 00:40:11,680 --> 00:40:13,680 Speaker 2: But the thing is probably right, like you don't need 719 00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:17,120 Speaker 2: to like when you're a younger person in Michigan. It's 720 00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:20,800 Speaker 2: certainly in the greater you know, dear born Detroit, Oakland, 721 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:24,680 Speaker 2: you know county, et cetera. Like you're connected to that community. 722 00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:26,640 Speaker 2: You may not be from that community, right, but you 723 00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:30,000 Speaker 2: know someone or you know someone who's been affected by this, right, 724 00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:32,000 Speaker 2: So you know, it's something that's been brought up in 725 00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:33,360 Speaker 2: all the focus groups that I do out there, and 726 00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,760 Speaker 2: I'm sure that's certainly in fact when it's one percent 727 00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:37,640 Speaker 2: virtue of everything that matters, right. 728 00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:41,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, no, exactly, Just give me two more minutes. 729 00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:47,120 Speaker 1: On Anecdotally, since you are at a university, you saw 730 00:40:47,760 --> 00:40:50,720 Speaker 1: young people not as engaged with this campaign. 731 00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:53,720 Speaker 2: These are the things I saw this year that struck me. Okay. 732 00:40:54,080 --> 00:40:57,360 Speaker 2: The first one is the first series of focus groups 733 00:40:57,400 --> 00:40:59,800 Speaker 2: I did in February and March of this year. And 734 00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,200 Speaker 2: I recruit focus groups, you know, I generally do bigger 735 00:41:03,320 --> 00:41:05,960 Speaker 2: groups of town hall's. We've got Democrats and Republicans and 736 00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:08,680 Speaker 2: independence often in the same group. Often we will do 737 00:41:08,760 --> 00:41:11,719 Speaker 2: other groups as well. But in those early groups, you know, 738 00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,839 Speaker 2: and we were in Michigan, then we're you know, we're 739 00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:18,360 Speaker 2: across all the battleground states, Western Pia, et cetera. I 740 00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:23,879 Speaker 2: found that younger people were much more confident voicing their 741 00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:28,000 Speaker 2: vote for Trump than Biden. Right, Independence, Democrats were flipping. 742 00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:31,080 Speaker 2: So I just found that that was people were more 743 00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:35,319 Speaker 2: confident saying publicly were Trump than even Democrats who are 744 00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:38,440 Speaker 2: wing for Biden. That struck me, okay. One. The second 745 00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:42,640 Speaker 2: thing that struck me Molly's in these earliest conversations, Okay, 746 00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:47,080 Speaker 2: women would tell me they cared deeply, of course about reproductiveile. 747 00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,440 Speaker 2: But you know what, they might care more about keeping 748 00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:54,279 Speaker 2: that apartment and not being homeless. We talked about this 749 00:41:54,480 --> 00:41:56,680 Speaker 2: is barely a focus group that can that I conduct 750 00:41:57,000 --> 00:42:00,600 Speaker 2: where I don't have a member or more who is 751 00:42:00,840 --> 00:42:03,920 Speaker 2: or had not been homeless. So that is something again 752 00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:06,880 Speaker 2: when we're trying to understand how could someone possibly be 753 00:42:07,080 --> 00:42:09,800 Speaker 2: for Trump who was younger. Well, when you're on the 754 00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:13,240 Speaker 2: verge of not having a home, you know, and someone 755 00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,359 Speaker 2: tells you I can fix this, I will put money 756 00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:19,680 Speaker 2: into your pockets. I'm sorry. That's a really strong argument 757 00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:21,279 Speaker 2: and we need to respect that. 758 00:42:21,760 --> 00:42:24,279 Speaker 4: And my criticism is you're not. 759 00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:28,839 Speaker 2: Going to pick that up, Molly, okay, through deeper analytics 760 00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:31,840 Speaker 2: and modeling, You're not. You're only going to pick that 761 00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:34,719 Speaker 2: up by listening and engage it. And by the way, 762 00:42:34,920 --> 00:42:37,359 Speaker 2: Kamala Harris has done that. She spent a good part 763 00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,960 Speaker 2: of the last year traveling to college campus get into 764 00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:41,080 Speaker 2: she knows that. 765 00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:45,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, now, none of this is about Paris, right, she 766 00:42:45,200 --> 00:42:48,160 Speaker 1: got in too late for it to be about her. 767 00:42:48,520 --> 00:42:51,400 Speaker 1: I mean, the fact that she was able to just 768 00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,880 Speaker 1: do what she was able to do was such a 769 00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:59,160 Speaker 1: testament to her strength as a candidate and her ability 770 00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:03,759 Speaker 1: but just is this is a really really important point. 771 00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:04,439 Speaker 2: John. 772 00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:06,680 Speaker 3: I hope you will come back and talk to us 773 00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:07,279 Speaker 3: more about this. 774 00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:10,600 Speaker 2: I hope so too. I really so much appreciate the 775 00:43:10,600 --> 00:43:11,839 Speaker 2: opportunity to speak with you today. 776 00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:20,080 Speaker 3: Thanks. No, no moment, Jesse Cannon my junk fest. 777 00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:22,200 Speaker 2: You know, it's hard for me to ever be a 778 00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:23,520 Speaker 2: fan of Eddie these type of guys. 779 00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:25,080 Speaker 4: But Jerome Powell not so much. 780 00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:28,399 Speaker 1: No, this is actually really good and it's my moment 781 00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:31,280 Speaker 1: of fuckery because I think this is how you're supposed 782 00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:34,720 Speaker 1: to behave when faced with trump Ism. A journalist asked 783 00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,560 Speaker 1: Jerome Powell if he would resign if Trump asked him to. 784 00:43:39,040 --> 00:43:40,680 Speaker 3: Jerome Pal's the chairman of the FED. 785 00:43:41,040 --> 00:43:44,839 Speaker 1: It's a very important job, and Trump wants to make 786 00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:49,080 Speaker 1: the FED an arm of his campaign that will fuck 787 00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:53,480 Speaker 1: up the United States economy beyond repair. It'll make the 788 00:43:53,640 --> 00:43:57,960 Speaker 1: United States economy like Trump's steaks. So I'm really glad 789 00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,840 Speaker 1: that Jerome Palell said this, said, do you believe the 790 00:44:00,920 --> 00:44:04,400 Speaker 1: president has the power to fire or demote you? And 791 00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:09,279 Speaker 1: Jerome pal just responded, not permitted under the law. That's 792 00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,880 Speaker 1: what all of us need to do. No more. You know, 793 00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:17,080 Speaker 1: don't be the Jeff Bezos, who says, thank you so much, sir. 794 00:44:17,680 --> 00:44:22,040 Speaker 1: You know, don't comply in advance. The only way to 795 00:44:22,200 --> 00:44:26,319 Speaker 1: stop Trumpism is to resist. And that was very good 796 00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:29,960 Speaker 1: about Jerome pal So. I hope we'll see more federal 797 00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,920 Speaker 1: employees do stuff like that. That's it for this episode 798 00:44:34,000 --> 00:44:40,040 Speaker 1: of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and 799 00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:44,279 Speaker 1: Saturday to hear the best minds and politics make sense 800 00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:48,680 Speaker 1: of all this chaos. If you enjoy this podcast, please 801 00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:51,759 Speaker 1: send it to a friend and keep the conversation going. 802 00:44:52,280 --> 00:44:53,360 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.