WEBVTT - Russian Rhetoric, Tax-Plan Stakes, and Trump's First 100 Days 0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.000 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.920 --> 0:00:13.240 This is Bloomberg business Week Daily reporting from the magazine 0:00:13.240 --> 0:00:17.840 that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:22.760 and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business, finance 0:00:22.800 --> 0:00:26.520 and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Weekdaily 0:00:26.640 --> 0:00:31.720 Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.800 --> 0:00:34.680 All right, so there's a pretty interesting story on the 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:38.440 Bloomberg terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com. Basically, Bloomberg News 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.319 used a large language model to scan more than three 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.560 hundred of President Trump's public comments between August of twenty 0:00:44.560 --> 0:00:46.800 twenty four mid March, as well as more than three 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:49.400 thousand social media posts from the president members of his 0:00:49.640 --> 0:00:53.040 administration since the start of twenty twenty five. Basically, this 0:00:53.120 --> 0:00:56.160 technique allows for comparing meaning across large volumes of text, 0:00:56.280 --> 0:00:59.600 even if the specific wording differs. Now the results they 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:03.160 were reviewed by our reporters, and what they showed was 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:08.800 a correlation between Trump administration contacts with Vladimir Putin and 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:13.120 subsequent comments that echoed the Russian leader's own positions on 0:01:13.200 --> 0:01:16.640 subjects including the occupation Kiev's goal of joining NATO and 0:01:16.760 --> 0:01:21.959 Ukrainian President Voldemir Zelenski's political legitimacy now the netnet. President 0:01:22.000 --> 0:01:25.280 Trump's views on the war in Ukraine teim increasingly aligned 0:01:25.400 --> 0:01:26.479 with the Kremlin, and. 0:01:26.440 --> 0:01:29.080 That despite most recently President Trump seeming to be more 0:01:29.080 --> 0:01:32.319 critical of Russia and Putin. For some thoughts on this 0:01:32.480 --> 0:01:34.800 and where the war goes next, back with us is 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:38.039 doctor Angelos stan She's senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:41.200 also a former National Intelligence officer for Russia and Your 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:44.440 Age at the National Intelligence Council. She also served in 0:01:44.480 --> 0:01:47.160 the Office of Policy Planning at the US Department of State. 0:01:47.600 --> 0:01:49.680 She's the author of the book came out in twenty nineteen, 0:01:49.720 --> 0:01:52.559 Putin's World, Russia Against the West and with the Rest. 0:01:52.600 --> 0:01:56.680 She joins us from Washington, DC. Doctor send, good to 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.200 have you along with us. It's been a little bit 0:01:59.240 --> 0:02:02.040 since we talked to you. How would you characterize the 0:02:02.040 --> 0:02:05.040 way that the President has been speaking and acting with 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:08.640 regard to Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Would you agree with 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:12.720 the LM analysis that has found that there is a 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:17.280 correlation between Trump administration contacts with Putin and subsequent comments 0:02:17.280 --> 0:02:21.120 that echoed Putin's own positions on subject related to the war. 0:02:21.919 --> 0:02:24.240 Yeah, I would definitely agree with that. I think that 0:02:24.400 --> 0:02:29.280 was true even before he was elected president a second time. Certainly, 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:32.920 Steve Witkoff, every time that he the chief negotiator, every 0:02:32.919 --> 0:02:35.880 time he's met with Putin, has come out and essentially 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:40.000 repeated the Russian version of all events, and President Trump 0:02:40.080 --> 0:02:44.240 has most of the time too. You occasionally get instances 0:02:44.320 --> 0:02:48.320 like on Saturday after he met with President Zelenski when 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:50.960 he was critical of Russia for its continued bombing and 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:55.440 killing of Ukrainian civilians, particularly since these negotiations have begun. 0:02:55.880 --> 0:02:57.799 But I think his view of the world, his view 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:01.960 of the conflict echoes Putin well. Blaming NATO, he of 0:03:02.000 --> 0:03:07.359 course also blames Presidents Obama and Biden, and then essentially 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:10.240 saying that Crimea has always been Russian, which of course 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:15.639 is not true. And then you know, repeating that the 0:03:15.760 --> 0:03:20.160 Ukrainians will have to recognize the areas that Russia has 0:03:20.200 --> 0:03:24.639 now occupied since the twenty two war began as belonging 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:25.200 to Russia. 0:03:26.040 --> 0:03:29.760 All right, so we've heard from the Secretary of State too. 0:03:29.880 --> 0:03:33.160 I think about the President having to make or expected 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:36.040 maybe to kind of come to some conclusion this week 0:03:36.080 --> 0:03:39.320 when it comes to I guess US involvement in the 0:03:39.360 --> 0:03:43.080 Russia Ukraine War. I don't know what are you expecting 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:45.760 to come next here, Angela. 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:49.480 Yeah, it's interesting. The Financial Times just have a story 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:53.800 saying that Europeans are now increasingly worried that in fact, 0:03:53.840 --> 0:03:56.400 President Trump will say, you know, this is too difficult, 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:59.200 I've tried, it's over, and he'll turn his attention to 0:03:59.280 --> 0:04:03.280 something else. I think it's possible. The messages that we've heard, 0:04:03.320 --> 0:04:06.960 both from President Trump himself and from Secretary Rubio do 0:04:07.120 --> 0:04:09.640 indicate that some kind of decision is going to be 0:04:09.680 --> 0:04:11.920 made this week. I don't know whether it's tied to 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:15.520 the first hundred days, but I think we just have 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:18.680 to keep remembering that there are two sets of negotiations 0:04:18.720 --> 0:04:21.520 going on, and that even if President Trump says he's 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:24.280 not interested anymore in trying to end the war and 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:28.520 negotiate it's too hard, the restoration and improvement of US 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.720 Russian relations will probably go ahead, And of course that's 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:33.039 what Putin really wants. 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:38.560 Well, explain that how is he leveraging Russia's invasion of 0:04:38.680 --> 0:04:42.880 Ukraine to improve relations between the US and Russia. 0:04:43.000 --> 0:04:45.720 Well, I think that from the beginning, as soon as 0:04:45.720 --> 0:04:49.919 President Trump was inaugurated the second time, he indicated that 0:04:49.960 --> 0:04:52.919 he wanted to restore relations with Russia, that he wanted 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:55.680 to end the sanctions, that he wanted to work on 0:04:56.040 --> 0:05:00.240 maybe another strategic nuclear arms agreement with President Putin. So 0:05:00.320 --> 0:05:04.320 I think those things have always been separate in President 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:07.880 Trump's mind, and they've certainly been separate in President Putin's 0:05:07.920 --> 0:05:11.320 mind and the people around him. Because even though Putin 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:14.839 has now announced, you know, a three day cease fire 0:05:15.400 --> 0:05:19.280 from March eighth to March eleventh, I believe it is 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:22.720 we have no idea whether that will happen. But the 0:05:22.880 --> 0:05:27.640 very next day, his foreign minister, in an interview with CBS, 0:05:28.440 --> 0:05:33.960 repeated all the maximalist Russian demands, including international recognition of 0:05:34.000 --> 0:05:38.040 the annexation of these four territories that Russia doesn't fully control. 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:42.560 So I think in both president's minds, these negotiations have 0:05:42.640 --> 0:05:46.040 been separated, and it's quite possible that the US and 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:50.479 Russia can continue to improve ties, you know, restore the 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:55.760 personality embassy and things like that, maybe lift sanctions, go 0:05:56.600 --> 0:05:59.640 into big business deals with Russia. Maybe, but that the 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:02.680 walk still go on and the message to the Europeans 0:06:02.680 --> 0:06:04.839 from the US will be you have to take care 0:06:04.880 --> 0:06:05.080 of this. 0:06:06.240 --> 0:06:11.840 Any outcome where President Putin gets to hold on to 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:15.560 the territory that he has taken over and is more 0:06:15.600 --> 0:06:20.120 favorable to him, does that only embolden him going forward? 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:25.719 Well, of course it does, because right now, as we 0:06:25.839 --> 0:06:29.680 believe the negotiations stand, the Trump administration is willing to 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:34.200 say that Russia should only one should only recognize that 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:38.000 part of those four territories that Russia actually occupies, and 0:06:38.040 --> 0:06:41.600 that the unoccupied parts of these four territories would still 0:06:41.600 --> 0:06:46.600 be Ukrainian. And so you know that would certainly be 0:06:47.080 --> 0:06:48.520 a mild gain for Ukraine. 0:06:48.920 --> 0:06:52.800 And what does embolded mean? Does it mean we've talked 0:06:52.800 --> 0:06:55.039 with you about this before? Like, does it just mean 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:58.080 I don't know, in a year, two years, five years, 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:01.000 six months, he goes after some thing else. Potentially. 0:07:01.800 --> 0:07:02.040 Yeah. 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:05.080 So let's say there's a ceasefire and it's more than 0:07:05.160 --> 0:07:08.920 thirty days. I mean, the initial ceasefire that Zelensky has 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:11.840 agreed to would be for thirty days. Russia hasn't agreed 0:07:11.880 --> 0:07:14.320 to that yet. But if there were a ceasefire for 0:07:14.400 --> 0:07:17.040 thirty days, then we would have to see would Russia 0:07:17.080 --> 0:07:22.120 then immediately start bombing again, or would the thirty day 0:07:22.160 --> 0:07:26.200 cease fire lead to a more permanent cease fire, in 0:07:26.240 --> 0:07:30.119 which case Russia might wait some time to attack again. 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:33.840 But the way that the Russians are talking at the 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:37.320 moment is that they still want to achieve their maximum goals, 0:07:37.840 --> 0:07:40.440 which they can do right now. I mean when President 0:07:40.520 --> 0:07:44.240 Trump said, well, it's already a concession that Russia hasn't 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:47.239 taken over all of Ukraine, That's exactly what they tried 0:07:47.240 --> 0:07:50.200 to do in February of twenty twenty two when they couldn't. 0:07:50.720 --> 0:07:52.960 So they might try that again later. 0:07:52.720 --> 0:07:56.120 On, doctor Sten before we let you go just thirty seconds. 0:07:56.160 --> 0:07:58.679 You know, I ask you this every time and past 0:07:58.680 --> 0:08:01.240 you repeatedly over the last three years as you've joined us. 0:08:01.680 --> 0:08:03.280 Given what we know now, how do you see this 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:03.840 war ending? 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:05.840 So? 0:08:05.960 --> 0:08:08.400 I think at the moment it still looks as if 0:08:08.880 --> 0:08:13.360 it would end with some kind of territorial I mean 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:17.480 recognition by Ukraine that at least temporarily the territory that 0:08:17.520 --> 0:08:22.120 Russia now occupies in Ukraine will remain with Russia. I 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:25.520 think you could have a cease fire again. Going back 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:29.080 to the North Korean South Korean example, but you would 0:08:29.120 --> 0:08:32.920 have to have that very heavily policed with some forces, 0:08:33.320 --> 0:08:36.480 and then you know it would be over for a while. 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:39.920 But I don't see at the moment this ending in 0:08:39.960 --> 0:08:43.560 any way that one could be really sure that Russia 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:47.000 wouldn't attack again unless Ukraine joins NATO. 0:08:47.559 --> 0:08:50.920 Doctor Angelas stant Thinks Always Always, Senior fellow at the 0:08:50.960 --> 0:08:54.320 Brookings Institution, former National Intelligence Officer for Russia and Eurasia 0:08:54.320 --> 0:08:59.440 at the National Intelligence Council, author of the book Putins World. 0:09:00.000 --> 0:09:02.960 As you were listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, 0:09:03.160 --> 0:09:06.680 catch US Live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. 0:09:06.800 --> 0:09:09.320 Listen on Apple CarPlay and the Android Auto with the 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:15.120 Bloomberg Business app, or watch US Live on YouTube. 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:17.960 All Right, you know this already. We've been talking about it. 0:09:18.000 --> 0:09:20.640 This week, marking the first one hundred days of President 0:09:20.679 --> 0:09:23.280 trump second term, we covered it. Question is we want 0:09:23.280 --> 0:09:25.480 to dig a little bit more into tim what comes next? 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:29.120 The US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson and congressional Republicans will 0:09:29.160 --> 0:09:31.120 meet to sketch out the plan for passing a multi 0:09:31.200 --> 0:09:34.679 trillion dollar tax cut in the coming weeks. As polling 0:09:34.720 --> 0:09:37.600 shows that voters largely disapprove of the White House's handling 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:40.679 of the economy. President Trump leighing in on taxes yesterday 0:09:40.679 --> 0:09:42.680 as he was traveling back to Washington, DC. 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:47.680 We're going to be taking in a tremendous amount of money. 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:48.920 And we're going to make a lot of money, and we're. 0:09:48.800 --> 0:09:49.439 Going to cut. 0:09:49.280 --> 0:09:51.960 Taxes for the people of this cutting this possible. 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:54.080 We'll do a complete tax cut, because I think the 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:57.559 daris will be enough to cut all of the income. 0:09:57.320 --> 0:09:59.920 Tax, enough to cut all of the income tax. 0:10:00.440 --> 0:10:02.160 I don't have to pay income tax anymore. 0:10:02.679 --> 0:10:04.280 I think Congress will have something to do with that. 0:10:05.240 --> 0:10:06.240 Let's ask Nathan Dane. 0:10:06.240 --> 0:10:08.439 All right, let's bring him in. He's Bloomberg Intelligence senior 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:11.320 policy analyst, typically based in DC. Likely for us to 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:14.640 be here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York City all 0:10:14.640 --> 0:10:15.360 income tax. 0:10:15.520 --> 0:10:17.440 No, I don't think it's going to happen, but you 0:10:17.480 --> 0:10:19.240 are going to get There are going to be some 0:10:19.280 --> 0:10:20.360 tax cuts in this bill. 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:21.559 I mean, so what they're. 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:24.760 Talking about is a five point three trillion dollar reconciliation bill. 0:10:25.040 --> 0:10:29.160 There's about one point five trillion earmarked in therefore tax cuts. Primarily, 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:31.800 what we're thinking is no taxes on tips, no taxes 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:35.000 on overtime, and for you know, no taxes on Social Security. 0:10:35.000 --> 0:10:37.960 Those are like the three main priorities. But there has 0:10:38.000 --> 0:10:40.160 been this push by President Trump to try and lower 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:42.840 you know, other taxes for individuals that make less than 0:10:42.840 --> 0:10:43.920 two hundred thousand dollars. 0:10:44.160 --> 0:10:46.360 That's what they're thinking. The idea here is that tariffs 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:47.160 are going to pay for it. 0:10:47.200 --> 0:10:49.400 And you know, all the analysis that we've done, all 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:51.800 the analysis that we've seen for other people do is 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:53.760 it's not exactly sure that money is ever going to 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:54.120 be there. 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:55.040 So, you know, we. 0:10:56.000 --> 0:10:58.160 From Paris for the Tax correct and. 0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:00.040 So what we're telling our clients is that we've i 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.400 think as of right now, with specifics likely to come 0:11:02.400 --> 0:11:04.600 out over the next couple of weeks, the more likely 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.360 scenario is you are going to see Congress pretty much 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:09.520 kick the can on a lot of these cuts. We 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.079 don't think there's going to be material cuts to snap Medicaid, 0:11:12.080 --> 0:11:14.320 the Inflation Reduction Act, but what you are going to 0:11:14.320 --> 0:11:17.640 see is most likely a very large deficit inducing bill 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:20.600 at the end of this which could be multiple trillion dollars. 0:11:20.840 --> 0:11:25.000 Because it's much easier from the policy perspective to kick 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:26.720 the can of the issue down the road than it 0:11:26.800 --> 0:11:28.520 is to take a bill or a vote that's going 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:30.880 to actually pull back benefits within the near time. 0:11:30.920 --> 0:11:32.480 Can I just say we've kicked the cans how far 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:34.640 the Cans and mars right at this point? I mean, 0:11:34.679 --> 0:11:36.680 we just keep doing this and doing this well. 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:39.880 And again that's the problem is is that you know, 0:11:39.960 --> 0:11:41.440 for a lot of in both sides of the aisle, 0:11:41.600 --> 0:11:44.559 it's both Democrats and Republicans. For them to actually take 0:11:44.559 --> 0:11:48.800 a vote that actually claused back some provisions or entitlements 0:11:48.800 --> 0:11:50.880 and so forth, it's extremely difficult. In fact, it was 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:53.800 reporting over the weekend that from some of the tax provisions, 0:11:53.920 --> 0:11:57.079 let's talk about Medicaid and snap benefits. Rather than implementing 0:11:57.120 --> 0:11:59.280 those cuts immediately, the thought now is that you would 0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:01.880 implement it after the election, whether it's the midterm election 0:12:02.120 --> 0:12:04.679 or even four years, and now implement. 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:05.600 It after the Trump administration. 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:08.920 So they understand, they being the Republicans, understand that this 0:12:09.000 --> 0:12:11.319 is not a popular vote. We've seen Senator Josh Holly 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:13.840 from Missouri come out and say don't touch Medicaid. We've 0:12:13.840 --> 0:12:15.880 seen the Chairman of the House Ad Committee, Glenn Thompson, 0:12:15.880 --> 0:12:17.600 come out and say, look, we can't really touch snap 0:12:17.600 --> 0:12:21.480 benefits outside of maybe just trying to combat waste and fraud. 0:12:21.760 --> 0:12:24.520 So there's a lot of ideas out there, but at 0:12:24.520 --> 0:12:26.079 the end of the day, it's much easier to kick 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:28.000 the can on the deficit than to do anything else. 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:31.360 So do you think that indeed we will see tax 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:34.960 on tips taken away? So no tax in this next bill, 0:12:35.280 --> 0:12:37.680 no taxes on tips, no taxes on social security, and 0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:39.360 no taxes on overtime. Do you think that'll pass? 0:12:39.559 --> 0:12:41.720 I think that's like the idea. So what we're waiting 0:12:41.720 --> 0:12:44.000 for is markups. So this week we have a couple 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.160 of markups from the Bloomberg client perspective, not the most. 0:12:47.640 --> 0:12:49.720 If you're in the defense industry, you'll care, but for 0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.199 the macro investor, not all that important. The big one 0:12:52.200 --> 0:12:54.120 you're looking for is the House Ways and Means Committee, 0:12:54.120 --> 0:12:56.160 probably going to be around in mid March, I'm sorry, 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:58.480 mid May, and that is the one that's going to 0:12:58.520 --> 0:12:59.679 have a lot of these ideas in there. 0:13:00.080 --> 0:13:03.160 And what's the total there that would add up to? 0:13:03.200 --> 0:13:05.959 What are some rough estimates on how much revenue the 0:13:06.000 --> 0:13:07.840 government would lose out on as a result of not 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:08.680 taxing those things. 0:13:08.720 --> 0:13:09.800 So here's the interesting thing. 0:13:09.880 --> 0:13:12.320 So the Senate resolution and the House resolution had two 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:15.800 different They were the same at the top number, five 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:18.240 point three trillion dollar bill, but where it differs is 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:20.120 how are you going to cut in order to pay 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:21.480 for this one point five trillion. 0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:23.560 What the Senate did is they said, well. 0:13:23.400 --> 0:13:26.520 We're going to just as a floor cut four billions, 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:28.599 so with a B the House that we're going to 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:30.640 cut one point five trillion, so we'll have like for like. 0:13:31.000 --> 0:13:32.960 But it's much easier to say that you're just going 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:34.800 to kick the can than it is to cut. So 0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.120 that one point five trillion will most likely include some 0:13:37.120 --> 0:13:39.600 form of no taxes on tips, no form on overtime. 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:41.520 We'll have to see what the estimates actually come out 0:13:41.520 --> 0:13:43.599 to be. And for the New Yorkers in Connecticut and 0:13:43.640 --> 0:13:46.600 New Jersey folks, the salt deduction most likely, we think 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:48.959 we'll go from around ten thousand dollars to the general 0:13:48.960 --> 0:13:51.280 dealing in Washington right now is around twenty five to 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:51.839 thirty thousand. 0:13:51.880 --> 0:13:56.520 What do you think, Carol Better? Okay Better? Is this governing? 0:13:56.840 --> 0:14:00.240 Is this governing for the people or is this just 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:02.440 governing to make sure I keep my job? So by 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:03.360 members of Congress. 0:14:03.440 --> 0:14:05.800 This is governing to avoid the filibuster and to do 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.560 something without the opposition party. And so this is how 0:14:08.600 --> 0:14:11.440 President Obama got Obamacare through. This is how President Biden 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:13.200 got the Inflation Net Reduction Act through, and this is 0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:15.720 how President Trump got Trump one point zero tax cuts through. 0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:18.960 But using reconciliation, you have a majority vote in the House, 0:14:18.960 --> 0:14:21.960 a majority vote in the Senate, you bypass the filibuster. 0:14:22.360 --> 0:14:24.360 But the Cavia idea is that you should only be 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.120 able to do things that impact the budget. What the 0:14:27.160 --> 0:14:29.400 Senate did is they said, you know what, the current 0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.440 cost of these Trump era tax cuts of extending it 0:14:32.480 --> 0:14:35.400 is effectively zero because it's current policy, that's something that 0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:37.640 hasn't really worked in the past. They just said we're 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:39.640 going to do at this time and as a result, 0:14:39.720 --> 0:14:42.840 the deficit now may go up significantly as a result 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:43.040 of this. 0:14:43.240 --> 0:14:44.600 But you know, we're also to. 0:14:44.560 --> 0:14:46.400 Our clients that there are a lot of deficit hawks 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:48.560 out there that wouldn't be going for this. But we 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:51.240 think President Trump ultimately would use his political capital to 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:52.280 get those Republicans on. 0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:57.320 Board, meaning sign this, go with me, or you're getting primary. 0:14:56.680 --> 0:14:59.240 Exactly and you march down to Capitol Hill, look them 0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:00.400 in the eye and say, are you're going to do 0:15:00.440 --> 0:15:01.000 real my plan? 0:15:01.440 --> 0:15:01.680 Yeah? 0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:04.320 And look, Jordan Favian was talking about this earlier, Carol. 0:15:04.360 --> 0:15:07.120 He only has so much political capital at this point, 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:09.440 especially with some of the poll numbers coming in that 0:15:09.480 --> 0:15:09.840 we've seen. 0:15:10.160 --> 0:15:13.080 Is that exactly Is that good enough, Nathan to keep 0:15:13.080 --> 0:15:14.800 the Republicans come the mid terms? 0:15:14.920 --> 0:15:17.000 Well, I would just say here, what's the ultimate goal 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:19.280 for the Republicans in this package, and that is to 0:15:19.400 --> 0:15:21.680 ensure that individual taxes don't go up. 0:15:21.560 --> 0:15:23.360 At the end of the year. Right now, they're trying 0:15:23.400 --> 0:15:24.280 for a permanent. 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:26.280 Text cut, but nothing says that. If they can't come 0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:27.720 up with a deal that maybe they say, you know, 0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:30.160 instead of ten years or permanent, let's just do this 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:32.560 four years so that taxes would go up and under 0:15:32.600 --> 0:15:35.120 the next administration, that brings the price tag lower and 0:15:35.160 --> 0:15:37.040 then would make it much easier to pass a bill. 0:15:37.200 --> 0:15:38.160 Is it ever permanent? 0:15:38.880 --> 0:15:40.480 Well, it is for the corporate tax right, That's what 0:15:40.520 --> 0:15:41.920 they did in the first one. 0:15:41.960 --> 0:15:42.360 Permanent. 0:15:42.520 --> 0:15:45.320 No other administration can come in or no other Congress 0:15:45.320 --> 0:15:46.160 can come in and change it. 0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:48.320 Well, you can obviously change it if it's but it's 0:15:48.360 --> 0:15:50.760 permanent and from the standpoint that there's no sunset provision. 0:15:50.800 --> 0:15:52.400 Okay, got it, got it, got it, got it. I 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.080 mean it's going to take legislative action to change it. 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:57.960 When you have the pencil sharpened, when you have Excel open, 0:15:58.080 --> 0:16:00.680 and you're going through these calculations, how do you think 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:05.400 about potentially the burden being eased on lower income Americans 0:16:05.640 --> 0:16:09.359 with some of these provisions, but then potentially the inflationary 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.720 aspects of tariffs if those indeed remain in place. Because 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.840 the President says, hey, this is a revenue raiser for us. 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:18.520 We saw a lot of reports over the weekend about 0:16:18.560 --> 0:16:21.000 companies starting to add a specific line item as a 0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:24.200 result of an import tax and import duty. Does that 0:16:24.240 --> 0:16:27.040 then hit those Americans who this would likely benefit? 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:29.400 Yeah, you know, I just saw our restaurant analyst, Michael 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:31.440 Halen's downstairs, and you know, I was talking with a 0:16:31.440 --> 0:16:32.560 bunch of our consumer. 0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:33.400 Analysts a few minutes ago. 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:36.520 And the questions that we have from this package is 0:16:37.120 --> 0:16:40.440 Commerce Secretary Howard likes to say that it's stimulating, but 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:44.040 if you're spending the bulk of this extending current policy, 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:47.400 where's the stimulus. So when it comes to retail in particular. 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:50.080 You know, there's a lot of our analysts are looking 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:52.160 at this and they're just saying, look, you know, you 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:55.080 know spending is still somewhat strong from now, but what 0:16:55.120 --> 0:16:57.400 happens if we get supply chains and a few supply 0:16:57.520 --> 0:16:59.720 chain shortages in a few weeks. There's a lot of 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:02.800 different questions here, but ultimately the question is can the 0:17:02.840 --> 0:17:05.840 consumer to continue to spend as they're spending today And 0:17:05.960 --> 0:17:08.280 a lot of our analysts aren't exactly sure that can happen. 0:17:08.480 --> 0:17:11.240 What do you hear from the investor base and you know, 0:17:11.320 --> 0:17:16.040 various corporate base. You are a policy expert analyst in 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:20.399 terms of trying to figure out what the next I 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:22.920 don't know one hundred days or next six months are 0:17:23.480 --> 0:17:24.639 for a Trump White House. 0:17:24.840 --> 0:17:26.720 So the first question is obviously on the tariffs. The 0:17:26.800 --> 0:17:29.480 number one question we get is when are these exceptions 0:17:29.520 --> 0:17:31.600 or when is President Trump going to quote unquote back 0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:34.240 down on tariffs? And what we tell our clients is 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:36.320 is that, like, look, within the next three to four 0:17:36.320 --> 0:17:38.800 weeks president Trump. Bloomberg News reported this over the weekend 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:41.080 that President Trump is going to announce deals within quote 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:44.240 three to four weeks, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessont. 0:17:43.840 --> 0:17:44.760 Isn't going to wait that long. 0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:47.200 He's feeling the pressure, and so you are going to 0:17:47.240 --> 0:17:49.480 see I think later this week or beginning of next 0:17:49.480 --> 0:17:53.960 week quote unquote understandings or memor amums. I think essentially, 0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:56.000 I think it's like three to four page bullet points 0:17:56.080 --> 0:17:57.200 rather than an actual deal. 0:17:57.520 --> 0:17:59.360 So obviously that's goin too well. 0:17:59.400 --> 0:18:01.200 I don't know if I China, but you know, they're 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:04.639 negotiating with seventy countries, and the idea from the Treasury 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:07.400 Department that we've learned is that this isn't so much 0:18:07.440 --> 0:18:10.280 of a US China negotiation, but rather you know, they've 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:12.240 been saying India potentially could be a first one in 0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:15.320 South Korea Japan. So you have this tariff argument that's 0:18:15.359 --> 0:18:17.920 going or this tariff debate that's taking place with I 0:18:17.960 --> 0:18:20.080 don't want to say the ultimate answer, but at least 0:18:20.119 --> 0:18:23.080 some more clarity. But then the Republicans on the House 0:18:23.119 --> 0:18:25.320 are trying to get this tax extension bill. They want 0:18:25.320 --> 0:18:27.280 to get it done by Memorial Day. We don't think 0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:29.200 that can happen. I think it's going to happen during 0:18:29.200 --> 0:18:31.679 my vacation in late July, but more likely than not 0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:34.560 because the debt ceiling is included. I think they will 0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:36.240 get it done before the mid July. 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:38.920 I hope for your sake it doesn't happen on your vacation, Nick, 0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:40.040 and I want to go back to something that you 0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:44.040 said about stimulative effects or potential stimulative effects of this bill. 0:18:44.720 --> 0:18:47.359 There's this narrative that has emerged in recent weeks, given 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:51.360 the challenges that the that analysts are saying the economy 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:53.640 faces as a result of this tariff policy, that there 0:18:53.640 --> 0:18:56.480 needs to be some sort of stimulus to the economy, 0:18:56.480 --> 0:18:58.840 and they're saying it's all about the tax bill. They're 0:18:58.920 --> 0:19:01.200 using this as a way to say, Okay, we got 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:03.000 to get this tax bill through because that is what's 0:19:03.040 --> 0:19:05.399