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Speaker 1: Who you put your trust in matters. Investors have put

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Speaker 1: their trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune

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Speaker 1: of four trillion dollars. Why learn more and find your

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Speaker 1: independent advisor dot com. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm Tom Keane. Always with Michael McKee. Daily we bring

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Speaker 1: you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and

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Speaker 1: international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on iTunes, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com,

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Speaker 1: and of course on the Bloomberg So it does appear

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Speaker 1: that markets are getting nervous about something. Vix certainly above

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Speaker 1: where it's been four months, although off a little bit

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Speaker 1: from the last couple of days. What are nervous about?

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Speaker 1: The nervous about the end of stimulus? Are they nervous

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Speaker 1: about slowing growth around the world. Lackman Aton is the

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Speaker 1: co founder and chief operations officer of the Economic Cycle

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Speaker 1: Research Institute, and he is here with us this morning.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Lackman, Um, Good morning. When you when you

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Speaker 1: do your models and we'll get to your forecast at

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Speaker 1: a moment, you're not predicting a recession right away, but uh,

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Speaker 1: do you include financial markets in what you do? Because

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Speaker 1: the Feds. They criticized because their Furbus model does not

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Speaker 1: include financial market feedback effects. Sure. Um, in the big picture,

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Speaker 1: we don't have models. We're looking at indicators which move

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Speaker 1: ahead of turning points and growth or inflation cycles. Small

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Speaker 1: end model, yeah, small end model, but you know, theoretic

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Speaker 1: you know, I think for the discussion, the answer is, yes,

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Speaker 1: we do include financial market data. It's an important, very

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Speaker 1: important area to get heads up on where things are

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Speaker 1: likely to go in the future. Um. And so that's

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Speaker 1: a little odd in the post GFC environment because a

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Speaker 1: lot of the market data is maybe perhaps more influenced

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Speaker 1: by central bank activity. We also are getting data from

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Speaker 1: government sources. Uh. And we are also getting data from

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Speaker 1: private surveys. So there's a number of different inputs, sources

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Speaker 1: of inputs, all cross checking one another. And it's when

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Speaker 1: they move in concert that we get tipped off that

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Speaker 1: a cycle turning point maybe underway. How far ahead do

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Speaker 1: markets move? I'm reminded of the old Paul Samuelson quote

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Speaker 1: about the stock market forecasting nine of the last five recessions.

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Speaker 1: Sure well, And what he left out there, by the way,

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Speaker 1: because that's a great quote, uh, is that the other

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Speaker 1: ones that the non recessions were actually uh slowdowns. So

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Speaker 1: the market is very sensitive to cycles in economic growth,

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Speaker 1: whether or not a recession occurs. So UM markets in

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Speaker 1: general are what I would call short leading indicators. Uh.

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Speaker 1: They lead by a quarter or two at cycle turning points.

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Speaker 1: If you look empirically over long periods of time and

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Speaker 1: different markets uh. And there, of course you want to

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Speaker 1: see if you can lead that a little bit, and

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Speaker 1: that's very difficult to do. There are some shorter leading

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Speaker 1: in excuse me, longer leading indicators, which might lead by

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Speaker 1: three quarters or maybe four quarters. Uh. And that's about

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Speaker 1: as far as you can get, and the reliability goes

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Speaker 1: down when you push it. What's the most important indicator,

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Speaker 1: uh that you follow, or the one that tells you

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Speaker 1: the most under your system of what's going to happen?

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Speaker 1: You know probably well, longest lead is very important, right.

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Speaker 1: So a very esoteric leading indicator is our global long

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Speaker 1: leading index of industrial growth uh And and this is

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Speaker 1: the only truly global economic cycle which explain what that is? Sure,

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Speaker 1: it's a long leading indexes, so we we have long

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Speaker 1: leading indexes for twenty economies, but of industrial growth? What

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Speaker 1: what is it that you're measuring with industrial growth, uh,

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Speaker 1: industrial production. So that's pretty hard data. You can get

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Speaker 1: that for all the major markets around the world, countries

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Speaker 1: and looking at cycles in industrial production growth globally, that's

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Speaker 1: the true global cycle. Services, Uh not so much. They

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Speaker 1: don't sync up. Housing, construction doesn't sync up. But manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: we're all it's a global manufacturing floor. We're all responsible

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Speaker 1: for different parts of the input. So we that is

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Speaker 1: a pretty cohesive global cycle. When we look at our

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Speaker 1: long leading indicators for all the countries and focus in

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Speaker 1: on the diffusion of them as they relate to the

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Speaker 1: industrial cycle, we get a very long lead three or

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Speaker 1: four quarters. And uh, it's something that probably isn't on

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Speaker 1: anyone's radar screen. Uh. And um, you know there's a

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Speaker 1: there's a cycle upturn that's been under way, uh kind

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Speaker 1: of in the background from very very weak levels. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And that may be supportive of things like commodity prices

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Speaker 1: or less negative industrial production growth in some areas. Launch.

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Speaker 1: When I didn't get to this on television this morning,

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Speaker 1: let me ask it right now on the front of

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Speaker 1: your research note, is a stunning one percent statistic? Is

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Speaker 1: your run rate on real g d P like a

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Speaker 1: one point zero percent. They're abouts. I mean, we don't

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Speaker 1: do a point forecast. But when we do the simple

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Speaker 1: math and you add up the primary components of growth,

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Speaker 1: it's productivity, growth and demographics. That's not that's not Morning

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Speaker 1: in America. No, And it's it and and it's this

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Speaker 1: is the You know, there's a lot of discussion about

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Speaker 1: what's politically correct to say, and and you all know that,

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Speaker 1: and this certainly is not politically correct to say that

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Speaker 1: the long run trend growth is lower than some of

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Speaker 1: the more depressed estimates. And it's not only a US problem.

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Speaker 1: It's a developed country problem. And as a result of

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Speaker 1: being a developed country problem, it's also a developing market

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Speaker 1: problem because they sell to the developed markets. So until

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Speaker 1: we when when you start talking about policy prescriptions, and

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of that flying around, I made the

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Speaker 1: comment that many of them missed the mark because unless

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Speaker 1: you can argue, I think, coherently that it's going to

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Speaker 1: move productivity growth up whatever your policy is, uh, then

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Speaker 1: you've you're probably gonna fall short. And when I say

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Speaker 1: stop digging with respect to monetary policy, I understand the intentions,

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Speaker 1: But when you have of very very low interest rates,

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Speaker 1: what you end up with is a lot of overcapacity

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Speaker 1: and a lot of zombie companies that should have been

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Speaker 1: shut down that stay alive. And everybody's carrying a lot

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Speaker 1: of inventory because it's cheap to carry it. And as

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Speaker 1: a result, the investment in the capital investment that has

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Speaker 1: a chance of increasing, increasing your productivity growth never happened.

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Speaker 1: Economic Cycle Research Institute. You have a thing which pushes

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Speaker 1: against the happy talk. It is g r C, the

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Speaker 1: growth rate cycle. This goes to the heart of the

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Speaker 1: distinction of Eckery versus what other economists do discuss. Well,

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Speaker 1: there's accelerations in decent In our view, there's an inherent

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Speaker 1: business cycle in a free market economy. The worst kind

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Speaker 1: of downturn or growth rate cycle downturn can actually go

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Speaker 1: negative and turn into a recession UH. And those that

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Speaker 1: don't are sctuations and growth accelerations and decelerations. We've been

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Speaker 1: experiencing a deceleration, a growth rate cycle downturn UH since

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Speaker 1: early UH. And it's against that that the FED had

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Speaker 1: plans to raise rates for something times and they've done

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Speaker 1: it once. So that's where this The FED has run

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Speaker 1: smack into the economic cycle. If they get their way,

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Speaker 1: they'll be able to raise rates once this year. Looking

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Speaker 1: at the forward data that anticipates cyclical turns in the

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Speaker 1: growth rate cycle, there's a tiny uptick. It's not enough

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Speaker 1: to make a bottom call in the growth rate cycle,

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Speaker 1: but we're watching it and um, it's it's going to

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Speaker 1: break one or two ways. Either it's going to develop

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Speaker 1: into a growth rate cycle upturn or it's going to deteriorate.

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Speaker 1: It's going to be a false start. And what a

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Speaker 1: corporate profits tell you then, I mean, if you if

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Speaker 1: you're a business cycle analysis to corporate profits matter? They matter.

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Speaker 1: I mean I think there's a question as to how

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Speaker 1: they're measured, um, but conceptually they matter. They can help

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Speaker 1: drive investment, which is critical to productivity growth. But you

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Speaker 1: really need profits which are some sort of cash. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You need to have your capacity constraint, which it absolutely

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Speaker 1: is not, and you need to have some confidence in

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Speaker 1: the future, which which there's little. So I don't see

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Speaker 1: a lot of investment coming even if corporate profits are

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Speaker 1: less bad. And the reason I brought that question up

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Speaker 1: is one of the great miscalls where people thought corporate

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Speaker 1: profits were great, and there was that moment in two

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Speaker 1: thousand one where we went oops, they weren't. Well, go ahead, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I was just gonna say, you know you could. So

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Speaker 1: the reported profits are the reported profits, and everybody's a

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Speaker 1: pro it kind of analyzing and moving those around. But

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Speaker 1: you look at what can you charge for your for

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Speaker 1: for what you sell, and how much does it cost

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Speaker 1: you to make it, so you can kind of back

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Speaker 1: into corporate profits that way or por corporate profits growth

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Speaker 1: or which way is the wind leaning? And um, certainly

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Speaker 1: on tradeable goods, on tangible things, there's zero pricing power.

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Speaker 1: We're hearing that all over the place. You might see

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Speaker 1: that mostly in autos or uh, some apparel and things

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Speaker 1: like that. UM. But you see that when you look

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Speaker 1: at the global export price inflation, it's non existent. In fact,

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Speaker 1: it was deflation. Uh. And this is I'm getting away

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Speaker 1: from oil to other stuff. Uh. You have a real

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Speaker 1: problem in pricing. Where you have some pricing power is

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Speaker 1: in services and um as we see in rents or healthcare.

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Speaker 1: And that's a problem for anyone who's a person who

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Speaker 1: lives and tries to has to have healthcare and a

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Speaker 1: place to live and food and things like that. Fortunately,

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Speaker 1: most of our listeners are not people, and to any

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Speaker 1: place to live well, let's get to um what we

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Speaker 1: don't pay you for here, and that is to come

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Speaker 1: on and give you a forecast. What do you see.

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Speaker 1: We've talked about the GDP slowdown, but what do you

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Speaker 1: see going forward when you put all the numbers together,

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Speaker 1: well all the numbers together. First, you absolutely have a

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Speaker 1: growth rate cycle downturn, which is is agonizing the feed.

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Speaker 1: At the same time, you have an inflation cycle upturn.

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Speaker 1: It's a cyclical inflation cycle upturn, so for a few

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Speaker 1: quarters happening inside of a long term decline in inflation expectation.

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Speaker 1: So you'll if you look at longer inflation expectations, those

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Speaker 1: are going to remain down. Nevertheless, the FED will get

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Speaker 1: a little squeezed by that, in particular, as I said,

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Speaker 1: by services inflation. What remains to be determined. It has

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Speaker 1: not been determined yet. If this growth rate cycle downturn

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Speaker 1: has a chance of ending as we go into next year,

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Speaker 1: and I think that will be determined over the next

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Speaker 1: several months. Well, I gotta throw this in. Yes, I mean,

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Speaker 1: because there is a date out there, the first Tuesday November.

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Speaker 1: To what extent does an election play into your forecast?

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Speaker 1: Because what we have often seen is a lot on

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Speaker 1: hold and then after the elections over then people feel

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Speaker 1: better and get back to what. Well. Look, when you're

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Speaker 1: in a growth reycycle downturn, um, you become a little

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Speaker 1: bit more vulnerable to shocks. Um it. But it really

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Speaker 1: depends on your forward indicators, and those have stabilized a

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Speaker 1: little bit. Uh. So, Um, we don't have a high

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Speaker 1: likelihood of a recession this year. Uh, and that is noteworthy.

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Speaker 1: That is news. I think. Um, what happens beyond that,

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Speaker 1: uh has not been determined yet. It will be a

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Speaker 1: mix of what goes on in the markets, what goes

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Speaker 1: on with private surveys, what goes on with actual data

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Speaker 1: and leading indicators. Okay, let's leave, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: Really most interesting views on a tepid US economy something

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Speaker 1: like what we heard from Sree T. Well, maybe t

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Speaker 1: but it's not recession. I mean, Lachman said, that's not recession. Michael,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, but I can say headlines. But um,

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Speaker 1: what port Summer says in about two or three years,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. Well, we'll see. I've really been looking

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Speaker 1: forward to this. Let's get right to it. Uh. Will

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Speaker 1: palmerants is essentially definitive on Russian history and does that

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Speaker 1: at the esteemed Kennon Institute for Advanced Russian Studies is

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Speaker 1: at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Dr Palmer's wonderful to have

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Speaker 1: you back again. I assume when you were at the

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Speaker 1: University of London a few years ago you didn't worry

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Speaker 1: about Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. Please explain from your

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Speaker 1: your August academic perch this linkage of this fascination of

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Speaker 1: Mr Putin of Mr Trump, how does it filter in

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Speaker 1: will Permerance's land. Well, what's very interesting is I think

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Speaker 1: Putin is essentially using all the skills that he learned

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Speaker 1: in the KGB and all the skills that he learned

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Speaker 1: in terms of handling people in order to kind of

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Speaker 1: work his way into Trump's confidence. So the statements that

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Speaker 1: from Trump, you know that Prutin likes me, or he

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Speaker 1: says nice things about me, and therefore I'll say nice

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Speaker 1: things about him. I think that comes from years of

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Speaker 1: training in many ways from Prutin and his ability to

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Speaker 1: to appeal to people on a certain person to person level. Uh.

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Speaker 1: In terms of Trump's admiration for Putin, I think it

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Speaker 1: comes from his belief of what a leader is, and

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Speaker 1: I think obviously people have different interpretations of what real

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Speaker 1: leadership is. But from Trump's perspective, someone who gets to

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Speaker 1: do he wants to do all the time is his

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Speaker 1: ideal of a leader. And therefore that's kind of the

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Speaker 1: relationship right now, the framework that each of us has

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Speaker 1: on Russia and the Soviet Union and Russia before that.

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Speaker 1: I'm reading right now a fabulous one volume on the

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Speaker 1: mathematician Leonard Oiler of Switzerland, who spent many of years

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Speaker 1: literally the advent of St. Petersburg, just as one idea. Well,

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Speaker 1: I would suggest that most of us have framed our

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Speaker 1: belief of Russia around whatever the latest Tom Hanks movie is,

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Speaker 1: or maybe we remember Darkness at Noon, Arthur Kessler's shocking

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Speaker 1: novel of a generation ago on on the difficulties the

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Speaker 1: challenges of the Soviet Union. What do we get wrong

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Speaker 1: in our prism about Russia. I think what we've gotten

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Speaker 1: wrong in many ways is the belief that somehow Russia.

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Speaker 1: There are lots of things that we get wrong, and

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Speaker 1: there's some things that we get right. But if you

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Speaker 1: look at it, I think, especially in the aftermath of

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Speaker 1: the end of the Cold War, there was this belief

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Speaker 1: that somehow Russia was moving towards the West, but Russia,

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Speaker 1: as a European country was was inevitably going to become

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Speaker 1: more like that because there was no real alternatives. But

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Speaker 1: in reality there are many alternatives, and they are found

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Speaker 1: in Russian history. And one of the unique aspects of

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Speaker 1: Russian history is this belief that Russia needs to be

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Speaker 1: a single power, that it should not necessarily be aligned

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Speaker 1: and a part of other broader organizations. And so I

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Speaker 1: think the assumption that somehow Russia was moving towards the

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Speaker 1: West or could be integrated in the West was wrong.

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Speaker 1: Russia has its own defined interests, and it will pursue

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Speaker 1: those interests even against what we perceived is going against

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Speaker 1: its economic interests. And of course I didn't mention the

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Speaker 1: load Stone folks. We just had a wonderful conversation with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg News reporter oh two weeks ago or so,

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Speaker 1: who literally grew up will where Julie Christie and Almar

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Speaker 1: Sharif went on that sleigh in Doctor Gavago. So you

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Speaker 1: you go east from Moscow and you go out, and

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Speaker 1: it's where the Tsars went when they're trying to get

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Speaker 1: away from Napoleon. I get all that. Our John Michelswait

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Speaker 1: just went east to Vlada law Stock. How attached is

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Speaker 1: Moscow in putains Russia to the Siberia that's way out there,

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Speaker 1: five thousand miles to the east. Well, he's attached to

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Speaker 1: it because that's the source of this greatest wealth. Russia's

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Speaker 1: wealth is in its raw materials and its minerals, and

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Speaker 1: most of them are located in Siberia. And therefore the

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Speaker 1: point for Moscow is to make sure that those materials

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Speaker 1: were all materials remain a part of Russia and a

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Speaker 1: part of Russia's wealth. The issue is always to what

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Speaker 1: extent Russia is able to assert its will over Siberia.

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Speaker 1: For these regions. Um. For a long period of time,

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Speaker 1: the Russian state was in fact quite weak um. And

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Speaker 1: therefore this is kind of in the Czar's period. Uh,

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Speaker 1: there was a lot of semi autonomy for those types

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Speaker 1: of regions, simply because the state didn't reach into those regions.

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Speaker 1: I think today it's very different. I think Putin realizes

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Speaker 1: that he needs the regions. He needs to keep them

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Speaker 1: apart of Russia, because without them, there's no real wealth

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Speaker 1: that allows Russia to play on the international stage. If

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Speaker 1: you're just joining the school Partmerents were thrilled to have

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Speaker 1: him on the deputy director Kennon Institute, Woodrow Wilson Center, Washington.

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Speaker 1: Truly one of the nation's experts on Russia. Will a

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Speaker 1: delicate question, and I frame us with great respect for

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Speaker 1: the wonderful people from Russia in the United States. I

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Speaker 1: see French in the United States and they have a

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Speaker 1: linkage to their country. I see Germans in the United States,

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Speaker 1: or people from China, people from Taiwan, first and second generation.

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Speaker 1: Is a general statement, what is the linkage of the

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Speaker 1: Russians in America back to Mr? Putin? Is there a

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Speaker 1: tight linkage? Do they hate the guy? What is that generalization?

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Speaker 1: It really depends on what type of Ussian you're talking about,

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Speaker 1: because again, one of the interesting things about Russia is,

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Speaker 1: up until recently, it really didn't have a diaspora in

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Speaker 1: the United States. Most of the Soviet citizens who emigrated there,

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Speaker 1: either from Lithuania, from Ukraine, they had their own sense

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Speaker 1: of identity and they didn't necessary transfer it back to

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Speaker 1: the Soviet Union or specifically to Russia. I think today

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Speaker 1: you do have a larger diaspora of Russians, and they

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Speaker 1: have a variety of different opinions and attitudes. For a

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Speaker 1: lot of them, I think they left Russia because they

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Speaker 1: realized they can't They needed a different environment in order

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Speaker 1: to thrive into to prosper and therefore they have a

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Speaker 1: very ambivalent attitude towards Russia. For the most part, those

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Speaker 1: people who leave Russia do so for a desire to

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Speaker 1: kind of achieve the things that they can achieve right

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Speaker 1: now in Russia. That being the case, there's also a

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Speaker 1: group of Russians who are associated with the elite who

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Speaker 1: have now been educated in foreign universities and prep schools

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Speaker 1: and so forth, and I think they have a much

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Speaker 1: greater attachment to Russia. Nevertheless, they're not going back. Where

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Speaker 1: is mr putin right now? Economically, I've had real mixed

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Speaker 1: signals on this. I get articles that Russia's flat on

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Speaker 1: its back, etcetera, etcetera. From your filter of politics in

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Speaker 1: international relations? Is Russia flat on its back? Economically? Slot

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Speaker 1: on its back? It's not as things are not as

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Speaker 1: bad as the worst six months ago, mainly because the

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Speaker 1: price of oil is not as low. Uh. It's gone

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Speaker 1: from the thirties to the mid forties at times even

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Speaker 1: fifty and that has given Russia a very small amount

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Speaker 1: of breathing room. But nevertheless, the underlying economy is in

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Speaker 1: terrible shape. And the central Bank today just uh lord percent,

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Speaker 1: but tem percent isn't gonna convince people to go out

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Speaker 1: and get a loan, especially in Russia, and there are

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Speaker 1: other business why can either. Consumer demand is down. One

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Speaker 1: of the interesting things going on nowadays is that people

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Speaker 1: workers are no longer getting paid. This was a symptom

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Speaker 1: that occurred at the end of the Soviet Union that

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Speaker 1: the wagerers and factories and state contracts and so forth

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Speaker 1: um and the state is desperate for money. They're talking

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Speaker 1: about various different types of private nations and they can't

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Speaker 1: take place because there's not money. They're not gonna get.

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Speaker 1: Will Palmerance with its the Kennan Institute, Mike, we had

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Speaker 1: a fascinating discussion in our last section, Bigger Broader Themes. Mike,

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Speaker 1: we got into the conversation Julie Christie, John Michael Twaite

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Speaker 1: in Vladi Law Stock all in one conversation. Oh well,

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Speaker 1: I always thought you were gonna tell me there was

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Speaker 1: a remake of Dr Javango exactly. And John Michael Tawaite

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Speaker 1: is gonna play Omar Sharif I mean John Michael twaite

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Speaker 1: of course, folks, and Julie Christie and Marie with no

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Speaker 1: he Holdron is gonna play Julie Christie out of our

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Speaker 1: London office anyways, will Palmerance. Let's go narrow here, and

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Speaker 1: let's go to the border that Mr. Putin faces with

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Speaker 1: the Baltic states in Eastern Europe. I'm fastin aided by

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Speaker 1: the relationship, for example, of Russia in Finland. There's at

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Speaker 1: length the eastern Finnish border, which is which is stoked

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Speaker 1: in history? Isn't it steeped in history? Isn't it? Yes?

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Speaker 1: It is? And um Obviously, Finland was actually a part

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Speaker 1: of the Russian Empire up until nineteen seventeen, and it

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Speaker 1: has fought several wars with Russia, both the War of

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Speaker 1: Independence and in nineteen forty uh and it is a

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Speaker 1: question as to what Finland needs to do in order

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Speaker 1: to defend itself against what is perceived as a resurgent Russia.

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Speaker 1: Finland has always been militarily neutral, and I think Finland

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Speaker 1: is revisiting that issue. The Finnishing example is also very

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Speaker 1: interesting because the argument is that Ukraine now should adapt

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Speaker 1: the same type of neutral model that Finland does, and

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Speaker 1: clearly Finland doesn't want to do Ukraine doesn't want to

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Speaker 1: do that either. So there's a long history of tension

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Speaker 1: between Finland and russ show UM, and Finland has to

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Speaker 1: decide as well to what extent it needs to seek

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Speaker 1: out potentially NATO membership in order to defend itself with

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Speaker 1: the resurg in Russia. How are the Russians going as

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Speaker 1: we understand it, the U s policy and NATO policies

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Speaker 1: to put some more troops into the Balkan, into UM,

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Speaker 1: the Lithuania Lafia Estonia area. How the Russians going to

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Speaker 1: take that. They're going to take it very badly, and

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Speaker 1: they're going to increase their number of troops UM. It

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Speaker 1: will be a vicious cycle because the Russians will match

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Speaker 1: those types of actions by NATO UM and probably raise

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Speaker 1: them as well. So there's a real question as to

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Speaker 1: whether the US NATO are making simply symbolic gestures to

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Speaker 1: the Baltic states by sending more troops, or whether we

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Speaker 1: need to do more a more advanced placement of US

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Speaker 1: troops and be more engaged in the Baltics and vibe

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Speaker 1: NATO was there a way to ratchet down the tensions.

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Speaker 1: Are we gonna in a situation like during the Cold

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Speaker 1: War where we just sort of have to keep responding

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Speaker 1: to Russia. I think essentially we will let Russia raise

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Speaker 1: the anti as it were, But I don't think NATO

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Speaker 1: keeps trying to match what Russia tries to do. I

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Speaker 1: think the issue really is how long Russia can afford

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Speaker 1: to continue to raise this anti UH in light of

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Speaker 1: its current economic difficulties. The argument would be that Russia

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Speaker 1: can do this indefinitely because it used it in its

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Speaker 1: strategic interests um But as we discussed in the in

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Speaker 1: the earlier segment, Russia faces significant economic headwinds, and in

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Speaker 1: that sense, it's unclear how long Russia can maintain its

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Speaker 1: current pace and its current military UH engagement and and

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Speaker 1: and so forth. Tom, can I follow up here? A

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Speaker 1: question just occurred to me because this has come up

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Speaker 1: in the presidential race. It came up yesterday in Trump's

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Speaker 1: speech where he said our military is in terrible shape.

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Speaker 1: How good is the Russian military and how do we compare?

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Speaker 1: I think what we've learned over the last two years

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Speaker 1: is that the Russian military is stronger than we initially anticipated.

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Speaker 1: In many ways we view the Russian military, or had

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Speaker 1: viewed the Russian military as the left over the Soviet military,

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Speaker 1: which wasn't very good, which really couldn't maintain foreign forth

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Speaker 1: and couldn't exert power overseas. I think we've clearly now

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Speaker 1: reassessed that. I think Russia clearly has made marked improvements

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Speaker 1: in its ability to engage abroad. How how how strong

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Speaker 1: is their army overall it's still a conscript army. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's still poorly prepared and so forth. The question is um,

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Speaker 1: in terms of the U strength visa v. Russia, the

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Speaker 1: reality is that the US strength, NATO strength, no matter what,

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Speaker 1: will not be in a position to challenge Russia in

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Speaker 1: its own backyard and in countries that are not in NATO.

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Speaker 1: And that's the that's the line tension. Well, thank you

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Speaker 1: so much for the briefing, very valuable. William Palmer and

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Speaker 1: Steputy Director, Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, wood will Wilson, Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C. Just like just extraordinary discussion. That was just

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Speaker 1: I learned what I love about surveillance, folks. Is I

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Speaker 1: actually John Tucker? When I leave the building after my

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Speaker 1: three hour day you know, we get in here at

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Speaker 1: like five fifty five fifty and I'm out of here

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Speaker 1: by nine am, and and I find it. You know,

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Speaker 1: I learned something every day. This is good the presidential candidates,

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Speaker 1: she'd be young every day. Yes, some need to Who

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Speaker 1: you put your trust in matters. Investors have put their

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Speaker 1: trust in independent registered investment advisors to the tune of

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Speaker 1: four trillion dollars. Why they see their role is to serve,

429
00:26:56,359 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: not sell. That's why Charles Schwab is committed to the

430
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:04,320
Speaker 1: success of over seven thousand independent financial advisors who passionately

431
00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:08,760
Speaker 1: dedicate themselves to helping people achieve their financial goals. Learn

432
00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 1: more and find your independent advisor dot com. Well, Hillary

433
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 1: Clinton is fine, she's back on the campaign trail. Everything

434
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: is good. But her illness over the weekend raised some

435
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 1: questions in people's minds. I know this was a talking

436
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 1: point for a lot of people, But what would happen

437
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 1: if some presidential candidate someday did get sick enough to

438
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 1: have to drop out once they had already been selected

439
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: by uh convention? And Uh, I was asked this by

440
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,840
Speaker 1: a number of people. Tom, and Uh, I didn't know.

441
00:27:45,200 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 1: We found somebody who does Richard Pildy's is a New

442
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 1: York University School of Law professor. Authored the book Romanticizing Democracy,

443
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:57,239
Speaker 1: Political Fragmentation, and the Decline of American Government. He's one

444
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: of the nation's leading scholars of constitutional law. And I

445
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 1: us this is a constitutional issue. What UH, professor, would

446
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 1: happen if hypothetical candidate um Tom Keane slipped out on

447
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 1: olive practice, head open and couldn't continue the campaign. Well,

448
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 1: good to be talking to you, Mike about these issues.

449
00:28:17,520 --> 00:28:19,600
Speaker 1: And of course this is such a low probability event

450
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,440
Speaker 1: in the current circumstance, But I think a lot of

451
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 1: people are interested in understanding our system and you know,

452
00:28:24,440 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: how it deals with these kinds of issues. They would

453
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,840
Speaker 1: be obviously enormously momentous if they actually happened. So if

454
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: a nominee of one of the major parties got sick,

455
00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 1: had to withdraw, even died after the nomination and before

456
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 1: the election, the process would start with the political parties.

457
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,719
Speaker 1: After all, this is, you know, a nominee of the party.

458
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,680
Speaker 1: People tend to forget that, UH. And both the Republican

459
00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:52,760
Speaker 1: National Committee, which is the organization that kind of runs

460
00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 1: the Republican Convention, or the Democratic National committee would have

461
00:28:57,480 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 1: the power to choose a replacement candidate. UM. They could,

462
00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:06,600
Speaker 1: in theory, you know, hold another convention. UM. And if

463
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,280
Speaker 1: somebody died or withdrew right after the convention, maybe that

464
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 1: would happen. But much more likely what would happen is

465
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:18,440
Speaker 1: the committee itself would make the choice for the replacement. UM.

466
00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 1: So that's a group on the Republican side, it's around

467
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 1: a hundred and fifty people or so. On the Democratic side,

468
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,880
Speaker 1: it's a larger group that makes up the Democratic National Committee,

469
00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 1: around maybe four hundred and fifty people or so. UM.

470
00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:35,280
Speaker 1: And in the first instance, that committee on either side

471
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: would choose the replacement nominee. Then you have various issues

472
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: about how you get that nominee on the ballot in

473
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:45,120
Speaker 1: different states. Uh. You know, is this replacement happening a

474
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,600
Speaker 1: month before the election, three months before the election, two

475
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 1: weeks before the election, and then there are various issues

476
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 1: about what the electors in the electoral College might do.

477
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: And you know, we can talk through the different layers

478
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: involved here if if you're interested, well, definitely, I mean

479
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 1: want we want to start with the idea of UM. Yeah,

480
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:06,520
Speaker 1: the Republican National Committee or Democratic National Committee got to

481
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 1: get together, but do either one to have rules on

482
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,120
Speaker 1: what they would do in these cases? There there really

483
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 1: aren't very detailed rules for this, and this is probably

484
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: a problem that the parties should consider addressing going forward. Um.

485
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:24,760
Speaker 1: There would be a majority vote of the committee that

486
00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:28,800
Speaker 1: would actually, you know, ultimately make this decision. UM. Who

487
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 1: the committee members are is specified in advance, but various

488
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: processes and questions like how does the nominee get put forward? Um?

489
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: Can a nominee be put forward by any one person

490
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:46,440
Speaker 1: on the committee? Uh? Does it require of the committee support?

491
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:49,680
Speaker 1: Can it be somebody? Presumably can be, but somebody who

492
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: hasn't run in the primary. Surely you know that's permissible. Um.

493
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:58,000
Speaker 1: There's very little rules structure within the parties for this. Uh.

494
00:30:58,040 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: And this is something that's never happened to one of

495
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 1: the two major parties in the modern era, let's say,

496
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:07,160
Speaker 1: in the last fifty years or so, except for the

497
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 1: vice presidential nominee of the Democratic Party, Tom Eagleton, who

498
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: did get replaced shortly after the convention. You your academics

499
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 1: is fabulous, And part of it is on polarization. What

500
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:25,880
Speaker 1: is the distinction of the populism now of Mr Sanders

501
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: and Mr Trump versus the populism of William Jennings. Bryan, Well,

502
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 1: that's a that's a fascinating question. Um So. I think

503
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 1: that part of what's different today, which we're all sort

504
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: of aware of, is the role of social media. I

505
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: agree media it's a huge distinction, and uh, you know,

506
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:53,840
Speaker 1: the extent to which rumors circulate almost instantaneously across the

507
00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,560
Speaker 1: Internet and then get picked up and repeated before there's

508
00:31:56,600 --> 00:32:00,280
Speaker 1: time to correct any mistakes. That's very significant. Um. I

509
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 1: think the ability to unify disaffected people throughout the country

510
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,520
Speaker 1: is much greater now because of the role of social media.

511
00:32:09,040 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 1: I think the ability to bypass the various traditional date keepers, uh,

512
00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:18,040
Speaker 1: so that you know, insurgent candidates like a Donald Trump

513
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: or Bernie Sanders have have more ability, uh to to

514
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,560
Speaker 1: get out there to the constituency they're trying to reach.

515
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 1: That's very significant. So obviously you don't have to go

516
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 1: through the major broadcast networks to get attention anymore, uh,

517
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 1: and you don't really need the support of the party

518
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: leaders anymore. So whether this Rick piled Us of New

519
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:41,720
Speaker 1: York University Law School, it is September where children take

520
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: abrupt turns in academics. We had to get pilled us

521
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 1: on because he did this, Rick piled us You were

522
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:54,040
Speaker 1: distinguished in physical chemistry at Princeton. I assume you waited

523
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 1: through Atkins or whatever in physical chemistry. What did you

524
00:32:58,040 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 1: do like sit in the kem lab and go I

525
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,320
Speaker 1: want to be in law? How did you shift from?

526
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 1: These are the These are the most surprising questions I've

527
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: had in an interview in a long time. Great, I

528
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:11,120
Speaker 1: love it. How did you think anybody would be interested?

529
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:15,880
Speaker 1: How did you shift from physical chemistry to ending up

530
00:33:15,880 --> 00:33:20,800
Speaker 1: with Abner Vikta Mikvah and good Marshal and law? How

531
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:23,840
Speaker 1: did that happen? Well, I'll tell you. I spent a

532
00:33:23,840 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 1: lot of time with graduate students who are doing work

533
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 1: in chemistry, and I began to get a pretty clear

534
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 1: picture of what the next seven or eight years would

535
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,960
Speaker 1: look like in graduate school. And basically the image was

536
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:39,560
Speaker 1: working in some basement with no windows, with equipment that

537
00:33:39,680 --> 00:33:44,440
Speaker 1: never worked, uh, to get six months of data. Uh.

538
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,719
Speaker 1: And that didn't seem very exciting, I have to say.

539
00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,760
Speaker 1: And I also found myself becoming more you know, socially,

540
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: politically kind of oriented. I wanted to be more engaged

541
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: with the world with issues. So when I first went

542
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 1: to law school, I actually thought that I would take

543
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 1: advantage of my science background and you know, go into

544
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,160
Speaker 1: something like environmental law. Um. But then I turned out

545
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:09,279
Speaker 1: I did do some work in that area, and it

546
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 1: turned out I wasn't as interested as I thought. I

547
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: wanted to be an academic, and so that okay, half

548
00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 1: I pursued one of the questions on this mike, and

549
00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:17,920
Speaker 1: then I know, you want to get back to the

550
00:34:17,920 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: politics of the moment. Nobody was politically as interesting in

551
00:34:21,600 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 1: as Abner Mikvah within our law a long time ago.

552
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 1: What was it like clerking from Chicago? Yes, and I'm

553
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 1: actually a Chicago and myself, by the way, So when

554
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 1: I was a teenager, I worked handing out leaflets for

555
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,280
Speaker 1: his congressional campaign. So part of what was so unusual

556
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,760
Speaker 1: about Abner Mikveh, who you know, just died at ninety

557
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,880
Speaker 1: this summer, uh, is that he worked at the highest

558
00:34:43,960 --> 00:34:46,400
Speaker 1: levels of the United States government in all three branches.

559
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,600
Speaker 1: I'm not sure there's anybody in the modern era who's

560
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: done the same. He was a congressman from Illinois for

561
00:34:52,120 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: many years. Then he was a federal judge on the

562
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 1: United States Court of Appeals to the d C Circuit,

563
00:34:57,120 --> 00:34:59,040
Speaker 1: which is the court you know, kind of right below

564
00:34:59,040 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: the U. S. Supreme Court. And then he was the

565
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 1: White House counsel to President Bill Clinton. He was, uh,

566
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:09,880
Speaker 1: you know, an early reform politician on the Democratic Party side.

567
00:35:10,320 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 1: So he took on the daily machine in Chicago. And uh,

568
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 1: you know, one of the things that he was a

569
00:35:16,520 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: wonderful guy, and one of the things that was most

570
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: remarkable about him is that for all the years he

571
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 1: was in politics, uh, he always managed to maintain a

572
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 1: tremendous sense of integrity about his views and about his

573
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 1: personal life that was just never Everybody across the aisle

574
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: just has cues agree. I can't say enough about that, Mike,

575
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 1: about the battles that he had with the Chicago machine,

576
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: and almost seemed like, almost on a daily basis, we're

577
00:35:45,160 --> 00:35:50,879
Speaker 1: doing we districted him out of his district his political career. Um,

578
00:35:50,960 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 1: he had to move from Hyde Park, where the University

579
00:35:53,560 --> 00:35:55,640
Speaker 1: of Chicago is where he was first elected, up to

580
00:35:55,680 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 1: the north shore of Suburbs. But you know, also about

581
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:02,200
Speaker 1: after mc food, it turned out he became a major

582
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: mentor to so many of the most significant figures today

583
00:36:06,080 --> 00:36:09,760
Speaker 1: so he was certainly a major mentor for Elana Kagan,

584
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 1: who is now of course on the U. S Supreme Court. Uh.

585
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:16,759
Speaker 1: He was a significant mentor for Merrick Darland, who has

586
00:36:16,800 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 1: been nominated to the US Supreme Court. Was also from

587
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: the Chicago area. And of course he was one of

588
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:25,200
Speaker 1: the most significant early political mentors for Barack Obama when

589
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 1: Barack Obama was representing Hyde Park in the Illinois state legislature.

590
00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: So just a wonderful, wonderful human being who was beloved

591
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 1: across the aisle and great person to work for. Michael,

592
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 1: I want to get back to the issue of presidential

593
00:36:42,480 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 1: candidates on the ballot, uh and ask what would happen

594
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 1: if the election were over, uh and somebody won and

595
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 1: then died or was incapacitated. Well, this is also one

596
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,440
Speaker 1: of the things about our system that is a little

597
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:03,120
Speaker 1: bit uh unusual, you know, and people kind of forget this.

598
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,120
Speaker 1: But you know, we have the election in November, but

599
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:09,919
Speaker 1: of course, uh, you know, the president new president doesn't

600
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:13,840
Speaker 1: take office until January, so there's a three month gap there.

601
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 1: And on top of that, because formally the president has

602
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:21,439
Speaker 1: chosen through the electoral college process after the popular vote

603
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:24,480
Speaker 1: takes place in November. We still formally have to have

604
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: the electoral college meet, which they do in December, and

605
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: they have to formally vote and send their votes to Congress,

606
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,799
Speaker 1: which Congress doesn't receive and formally count until January. And

607
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 1: you know, you can imagine all sorts of things going

608
00:37:37,880 --> 00:37:42,200
Speaker 1: wrong at different points in that three months interval between

609
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: the election and the new government actually taking office. Uh.

610
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: And if a person who won the presidential vote on

611
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 1: election day actually died before being sworn in, Um, the

612
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:01,719
Speaker 1: answer is fairly easy if that takes place after the

613
00:38:01,760 --> 00:38:04,799
Speaker 1: Congress has counted the votes of the electoral college. There

614
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 1: the constitution is very clear that the vice president would

615
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: take over. So if the president elect died between early

616
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,959
Speaker 1: January January twenty, that's pretty easy. It does actually get

617
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 1: a bit messier if the person who wins the popular

618
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 1: vote in November dies before the electoral college formally meets

619
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:29,800
Speaker 1: and votes. UM. I suspect what would happen is that

620
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:33,880
Speaker 1: the electors of that party would go ahead and vote

621
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: for the vice presidential nominee from that party. UM, and

622
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:41,400
Speaker 1: I suspect that's what would stick as the result. But

623
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 1: there is no legal framework you know that actually spells out,

624
00:38:45,360 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: is that what it's supposed to happen. So you can

625
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 1: just imagine the kind of controversies that would erupt the

626
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:54,120
Speaker 1: people from both sides running into the courts to try

627
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 1: to get the courts to resolve this. And you know,

628
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: these are the kind of gaps in our system that

629
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:01,839
Speaker 1: no one thinks about until something actually happens, and then

630
00:39:01,840 --> 00:39:05,279
Speaker 1: it's too the problem. I have only a minute left,

631
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:07,279
Speaker 1: so I have to ask you this quickly. Um, and

632
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 1: this isn't about somebody dying, but two people staying on

633
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 1: the ballot. There are scenarios everybody's war gaming out that

634
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump could end up tied in

635
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,520
Speaker 1: electoral votes. Uh, and then you know in theory that

636
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: would send it to the House. But are electors required

637
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:26,200
Speaker 1: to vote for somebody? So the first answer is some

638
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 1: state laws require them to vote for the person who

639
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,840
Speaker 1: won the popular vote. But the second it's something like

640
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: twenty nine states have laws like that. But there's a

641
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 1: real debate about whether those laws are actually constitutional and

642
00:39:39,480 --> 00:39:41,920
Speaker 1: whether the way the electoral college is set up in

643
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:44,960
Speaker 1: the Constitution. At the end of the day, the electors

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Speaker 1: have to be free to vote for whomever they think

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00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:51,359
Speaker 1: you know is the appropriate person to vote for, so

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Speaker 1: we we would once again be in the courts to

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Speaker 1: resolve that. All right, we'll keep our fingers, get out

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00:39:57,680 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 1: and vote everybody so that we don't end up with

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Speaker 1: a tie because we don't want to go back to

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Speaker 1: courts on that. Rick Pelty's from New York University Law School.

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Speaker 1: I have a feeling we'll be talking to him again

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Speaker 1: before janu when the new president is sworn in UM

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00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:19,640
Speaker 1: and he's right. Remember Tom in London after Brexit uh,

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00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:23,160
Speaker 1: the Cameron resigned, Teresa May took over. Took all of

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:34,120
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on iTunes, SoundCloud, or whichever

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Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane.

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee is at Economy. Before the podcast, you can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio. Who you put

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